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And replace it with what?
It does discourage tanking because the worst team is still 3 times more likely to not get the first pick. So, being the worst isn't that advantageous (something teams and commentators still haven't picked up on). New Orleans, in garbage karmic logic, "deserves" the #1 pick because they didn't tank. They played hard all season.
Just because teams aren't picking up on logic and evidence - worst team hasn't gotten the #1 pick since 2004 - doesn't mean the NBA should change its rules. There's probably a better way to do it, but the motivation should be to optimize the process, not to be reactionary due to poor teams and their poor management.
I feel like i have noticed this happening more the last few years.
Not as cool as the mob guess, but still more interesting than the truth, unfortunately.
HA! I love it!
(he's actually a really nice guy, in case anyone was wondering. I'd met him a few times before and he's always friendly)
I agree on the main point, but if it was an offensive foul Boston would just be taking the ball out of bounds, no? They'd only shoot if it was a loose ball foul.
I think that's a better shot than the one he took. He's a 39% shooter this year from the spot he took, but 47% from 3-9 feet and 10-15 feet.
BTW, I went to NBA hot spots and it hasn't been updated since the 2010 playoffs. What a shamockery.
As an aside, he noted it was for the right to draft Okafur and not Howard.
I do like the depth this year - there's a number of interesting dudes currently tabbed to go mid-first, late-first, early-second...
I have heard MKG's name more than anyone else's, but I don't like his fit for Charlotte. They need more foundational building blocks, and I think they would be better off taking a bigger risk. My first thought is that Drummond might be in play for them since I think he at least has a chance to become a real building block. Plus, Drummond is likely to be bad enough the first year or two that they will have a chance to add more high draft picks.
I agree with that too. If I were Charlotte, I would attempt to trade down, take on a player and still draft a lottery ticket like Perry Jones.
MKG reminds me somewhat of a raw Luol Deng. That's basically RJ with defense, right? I guess young RJ and MKG both play inside more than Deng, but that is a function of youth, to some extent. MKG will also have a much harder time being the best rebounder on the court at about 6'6 in the pros than he did in college.
I think he's at a low point on his value right now, and is a good opportunity to pick up cheap.
Except he's shooting over Rondo from 18 and he's got a top 5 in the history of the NBA defender coming over to help on the weakside. I'm not sure his calculus was off.
hoopshype / nbadraft.net has them taking Barnes, which seems like a bad joke. I've otherwise mostly seen MKG there, also Robinson (draftexpress) - who seems like a safe choice.
As others have noted, offensive fouls don't result in free throws. But also, LeBron has an incredibly low foul rate. He had gone 7 games without an offensive foul and had shot 74 free throws since then. In addition, the Celtics were out of timeouts, so the typical NBA rationale for shooting at the buzzer didn't apply, and the Celtics are a poor rebounding team. Shooting with a few seconds left on the clock would've given the Heat a much greater win expectancy, especially if LeBron had made a move to draw an extra defender before taking the shot. What LeBron did was far from the worst decision strategically (such as making a risky pass or taking a low-percentage shot with lots of time on the clock) and far from the best.
The minutes we have seen Biyombo are probably insufficient to draw big conclusions, but my thought is that if you wanted to have him be your nominal 5, you would want a 4 who skews to the big side in cases where you have to match up against a physically imposing center- think of Ben Wallace playing next to Sheed, who had the size to guard bigger guys even though he functioned as more of a 4 offensively. Even so, you could argue that the Bobcats are so far away that worrying about fit is missing the point.
The problem is--who trades up? I hate drafting SF's who aren't elite scorers or at least very plus distributors. It seems like the upside is really limited.
If you had a gun to my head and I had to pick at #2, I guess I would try to grab Andre Drummond or Thomas Robinson. I like Drummond, but I am worried about his ability to score.
http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2326
My bad on that.
I don't know if that shot was the best strategy for Lebron, but I think it was reasonable. And his typical 39% shooting from that spot is more likely put up against taller defenders than Rondo.
I don't know Sacto enough, but I definitely agree he'd be a great fit for the Wiz.
When was the last time that worked out? Not being facetious. Regarding Robinson, I have no track record for these things, and I can't decide if he's a totally finished product with no upside, or an all star waiting to happen. He does play very hard, which has to be a positive.
It must be because I'm not a fan of any hometown or sentimental favorite team (I like players, not teams -- I've also never had a hometown NBA team) that this wouldn't bother me. They'd have to get rid of the lottery going forward of course, but I'd be ok with the NBA having directed certain outcomes for good or for bad.
Maybe its because I already suspect they do, and yet here I am.
I've seen this movie. It ends with trading him and a 1st round pick for 2 months of Shane Battier.
I find it very hard to get excited about anything involving the Bobcats, but I'd take MKG.
I think the teams that are going to make out really well here in the end are the teams in the low lottery. The quality of player available there will be much, much higher than most drafts. In particular, whoever ends up with Terrence Jones (currently projected 15th to the Sixers by DX) is getting a steal.
Dwight Howard had no offensive game when he was drafted. Of course, some may say he still doesn't. Either case, that's probably the comp Drummond's people want out there.
I considered Howard, but then again he was a high school kid. We at least have the one year of college to examine with Drummond. Fair point, though.
Well, it is rarer than usual. But in the last five years, big men who were picked in the top 7 overall:
2011: Too soon to tell--no one looks great
Enes Kanter (not regarded as having offensive issues, but had a mediocre first year)
Jan Veseley (not sure how his offenisve game was regarded. mediocre)
Bismack Biyombo (regarded as a project offensively, still a project)
2010: Two out of three
DeMarcus Cousins (good offensively, but was regarded as such)
Ekpe Udoh (regarded as a project on offense. Pretty poor, but a good defender--20 min a game guy atm)
Greg Monroe (I seem to remember him being described as a project on offense. In any case, he's been great)
2009: Contrast in styles
Blake Griffin (great offensively, was projected as such)
Hasheem Thabeet (disaster zone--can't average 10 min in the NBA)
2008: No good comparisons
Michael Beasley (projected at the 4 out of college, but has played the 3)
Kevin Love (some question about his offense, but has played well)
2007:
Greg Oden (what might have been? Was regarded as a project, but displayed good touch briefly)
Al Horford (developed significantly from an 8 shot a game guy in college. Was regarded as projectible on offense in college)
Some guys really figured it out on offense in the Pros--Dwight Howard, Greg Monroe, Al Horford (depending on what you think of how he was regarded in college). The real big project guys are generally drafted later. I do think that Drummond is nothing like Thabeet. Thabeet was 22 when he came out. Drummond is 18. Thabeet averaged a shot per game less than Drummond in 3 more mpg his last year. One really valid source of concern for Drummond: Cannot shoot FT's. Like to a scary degree that will retard his development.
Other guys you might look at besides my list above:
Andrew Bogut, Emeka Okafor, Tyson Chandler
Hell if I know. He averaged 8.6 FGA on a team that took 56 per game (3rd on the team). I saw a highlight reel of his where he looked pretty raw in the post, but did go up and get a bucket. He's a pretty decent offensive rebounder. I don't think he's Thabeet. Apparently, I'm his agent.
I hate drafting SF's, as it takes a lot for a SF to be an impact player in the NBA.
The Atlanta Hawks are interested in your theories and would like to subscribe to your newsletters.
Wait.
The fans of the Atlanta Hawks are interested in your theories and would like to subscribe the Atlanta Hawks to your newsletters.
You missed Derrick Favors. I think he's done better on offense than expected.
Well .... again I feel like I'm his agent here, but he only took 88 FTs. In addition, poor FT shooting is probably one of the easiest things to work with a guy on and have them improve. I feel like it's likely that he could improve up to around 60% within two years (as I'm assuming he'd be willing to work on it).
Edit:
My bad there.
Free throws are a basic, fundamental skill that speaks to far more than just free throws. He can't shoot from the line AT ALL, he shot only 54% when nearly every single shot he did take was either a dunk or a layup, and he had all of 15 assists in nearly 1000 minutes of floor time. The things he did do he did because he's big and can jump high, but he has no basketball skills to build on. It takes an extreme talent to overcome those kinds of weaknesses and still be a decent player, and if I were an NBA team, I wouldn't bet on him.
I will note: Eric Snow shot 18-71 from the line his first two years of college (25.4%). 45% as a junior, 61% as a senior, 76% as a pro. Dramatic growth can happen and Drummond's physical tools (unrelated to free throw shooting) are impressive. But I'm not betting on him - no way.
You guys are giving me flashbacks with this stuff. It's...horrible.
Okay, here I think you're overstating things. He's an excellent shotblocker and offensive rebounder--things that take real skill, not just jumping ability. He's a legit excellent PnR defender, and pretty good as a roll man himself. He has excellent hands and rarely turns the ball over. He has a post game, but it isn't that good.
Again, the worst thing about him is that he doesn't have any kind of jumper--including at the charity stripe. But the good news is that he can add that if he's willing to work.
I think that he has a better chance at being all-NBA than someone like Harrison Barnes or MKG, and that is what the Bobcats should be looking for if they stick at #2.
Again, he's really nothing like Thabeet. He's three or four years younger than Thabeet was when he came out.
Its on the scouting report video at DX. See Link. Wingspan is 7-5.
RE: 2nd pick.
I presume it is going to be MKG unless Drummond makes a push. Beal has also been a high riser. I want to wait until after the combine on June 8 before I make any final judgments.
That's fine. I was jokingly responding to Hombre's description which does in fact sound very much like Thabeet. I haven't seen him play, so I'll stipulate that your client is nothing like Thabeet.
It's not just jumpers. From DX: The same column also points out that his FT% was just 18% in his last 10 games. That's unreal.
If all a guy has is athleticism, he's a late-round project, not a lottery pick. I wouldn't bet my house that he'll fail in the NBA, but I'd be willing to bet my car or something.
Saving for next year.
You all laugh now, but in six weeks or whatever, when the Bobcats draft him, and in the interview MJ says that he was convinced by an argument someone forwarded him from a baseball website, I'll be cashing my check for 2% of his contract.
I can't remember anymore if you are right about this being the perception at the time, but the good motor and work ethic stuff turned out not to be the case in the NBA.
This could be good.
It's rare, but there are some players that dramatically improve over time. K Malone only shot 48% from the line his rookie year, but improved to 60% his second season, 70% in his 3rd, and then shot between 75-79% for most the rest of his career (74% career FT). It can happen.
That's another one that might require a trade. Charlotte already has high draft picks invested in Augustin, Kemba, and Henderson in the backcourt, and none of those guys are particularly big. I have read that Beal is shorter than advertised (barely 6'3 in socks), which would provide problems playing alongside either of those small PGs.
I said it before, but I am with tshipman on Drummond for the Bobcats. It isn't so much that I think it's very likely for him to reach his upside, it's that I don't see the point in trying to get one of the other options. MKG plays a position where it is hard to turn a team around no matter how good you are (almost), and he does not have the offensive profile to make a big difference. Robinson is nearly a finished product (meaning the team can't stockpile high lotto picks while he develops), not a great fit, and probably not that much better than Paul Millsap before Millsap developed a good faceup game. Beal, like I said, mismatches with their other assets. Drummond plays a position that any team could use, and he's extremely projectible, both in the sense that he's a project, and that you can project him to improve.
I'm not owning it if Drummond flames out, because that is eminently possible. On the other hand, I will own it when MKG develops into a player who cannot be a superstar. That's the real issue.
So what you're saying is that Drummond needs to start taking 35 seconds between free throws?
Malone's always the example used for "guy who improves dramatically." He's the exception, not the rule.
Damn! Beat me to it.
Hey, whatever works. He needs to mumble whatever it was that Malone used to always say to himself before free throws too.
That's why Shaq and Wilt never improved. They didn't mumble (well, at the line anyway. Shaq mumbled in interviews all the time).
And try not to listen to Scottie Pippen.
"I'm good enough, I'm smart enough, and gosh darnit, people like me."
It was my impression that as a group, players tend to improve their FT% as they age.
Here's our main man, KP on FT's:
Favoring my POV:
...
But also yours:
I don't like Drummond on O, I'm not impressed with him as a defensive rebounder, the ast/to numbers are a red flag and I don't like his motor. No way in hell do I tab him @ 2.
The thread started on May 4, 2009. Personally, I think Grantland should do a feature on it (heh).
I think he's at a low point on his value right now, and is a good opportunity to pick up cheap.
I just need to make my obligatory Harrison Barnes should not be a lottery pick observation. I'd also like to note that whatever teams end up with Jeremy Lamb and/or Doron Lamb will be very pleased.
I'd take him over Drummond.I think this is very much a year where the talent between 2-20 is very level. I don't like MKG. He's a wing who is tenacious, but isn't really a scorer or a passer. I don't think his rebounding is going to perfectly translate because he doesn't have elite athleticism from what I remember of watching Kentucky.
1, there was talk about extending doug collins contract, but that seems insane to me. he almost burned out in february/march, and there's still a year left, plus a team option for 2013-2014. guaranteeing anything more than that seems to me to be a terrible use of resources, considering that, if the team is good, he'll want to stay, and if the team is bad, you'll want to change coaches anyway. maybe collins hinted that he could walk away from the job without the added guarantee, but to me, if he's using that as leverage, they'd be better off calling his bluff and going into next year without him.
2, i kind of want to keep brand, since i think he's still capable of being a productive player, but he's guaranteed 18 mil next year, and even if they renegotiate to spread that out over 3 years, instead of just the 1, i don't think that's a good investment. i think the smart move is to just be done with him, either by amnestying him this summer, or letting him walk the next.
3, i'm actually probably the biggest supporter of lou in this town, and i think this team is going to take a big hit if they let him walk without finding an adequate replacement.
Regardless of that, I'm with Spivey on both the 2-20 being level thing and the upside on Robinson. I like that guy and would take him over Drummond. But, because of the first point, I'd much rather pick #14 than 4 this year (for salary and pressure reasons). Maybe the Knicks can buy a mid first round pick this year.
The signature moment for me was as his team was losing in the first round of the NCAA tournament and the other team was (literally) holding the ball, waiting for the clock to run out, he stole the ball and then bricked a dunk: http://www.thevictoryformation.com/2012/03/16/jeremy-lamb-bricks-dunk-symbolizes-uconns-season/
The thing about the salary difference b/w, say, 4 and 14 is less about what they make in yr 1 and more about things like what their qualifying offers will be a few years down the line (as Beasley, I suspect, will soon learn).
Lou Williams - one question I wish had a more definitive answer with him is: how good is he on D? Reports vary widely.
Buying picks: With the new annual caps on how much cash a team can send out / take in - I imagine less picks will be sold than in the past.
both this year and last, his opponent's PER (on 82games) has been under 13. if you go back to '08 or '09 or '10 he's up around 16-17. so that would indicate there's been a change.
personally, while i think that there's been a noticeable improvement in his performance, my guess is that if you talk to 100 other sixers fans, somewhere around 95 of them would disagree.
looking at synergy, they have lou ranked 95 in opponent's PPP, but they also have his opponent's FG% at 36%, which is really, really good.
my guess is that if you talk to 100 other sixers fans, somewhere around 95 of them would disagree.
same for wizards fans, etc...
i think he's solid on D myself, just subject to the 2 in the body of a 1 thing.
[2273] NYK can't buy a pick because they used their money to get rid of Roger Mason and/or Ronny Turiaf in that deal with the Wiz.
Lamb can be a bit sheepish. IMHO, the thing I would worry the most about is his frame and strength. More specifically, I would be concerned about whether he needs some time to fill out before making a continuous contribution. It seems like most of the NBA shooting guards will have about 20 pounds on him. It looks like he is putting on some muscle and focusing on dribbling in defense in his current workouts. See Chad Ford Interview
EDIT: Amick's mock draft has Drummond at 6.
He also has Harkless slipping to the Hawks. That would be incredible.
Turnovers: Thunder 7, Spurs 21
What in the hell went on in this game?????
I didn't see anyone else post this, hope I didn't miss it. Any ideas where Phil is headed?
Are you sure? I thought the Post said last week they had $4 million or so to spend on it? I wouldn't be surprised if they were wrong.
So, good to get that winning streak distraction out of the way, if you're SA, huh?
jmurph on Phil: Saw that last night - was news to me.
I like Harkless too.
I have not seen any solid reports. Joshua Casey posted a rumor that Kupchuk was going to Portland and that Phil was taking his talents back to the Lakers in a front office role. See Link
Thought that might be the case. It will not be fun to be Mike Brown next year.
The way I understand it is you can only send $3 million a year in trades. Knicks already sent that in the aforementioned deal, so they can't buy a pick.
I have read that they are planning on working out Scoop Jardine and Tu Holloway; and that they have previously worked out Yancy Gates and Robert Sacre. Supposedly, they have worked out another player, but that player is unknown. It would make an interesting camp if they ended up signing/drafting both Holloway and Gates.
The Spurs were amazing to watch in the couple of games of theirs I saw during the streak, but I kept assuming that a team built around a 30-year-old point, a 34-year-old wing, and a 36-year-old big has a distinct limit to how good they can be defensively, and this club seemed to be playing well above that limit point.
WCF: I feel somewhat vindicated in saying that SA was not as good as they looked at home, particularly with whatever swings the performance of role players at home/away. Also, Brooks might have been a game late, but he pretty much did exactly what we all wanted him to do. He took Perkins out to switch more PNRs and keep up with the Spurs when they stretch out. He gave minutes to Sefolosha, who can add something that nobody else can. In fact, Sefolosha was way better at both ends than anyone expected. The offense probably wont be back, but the defensive length really changed the flow of SA's offense and is going to require some adjustments by Popp.
Jackson: The story I read said that if he went to ORL as an exec, he was going to bring with him a former player who is in the HOF, has no coaching experience, but is working for another team now, and would install him as the head coach and mentor him. Who is that? Seems like a tiny sample. Is Pippen with a team? That would have been a fun experiment.
Their defense wasn't the problem, though. They were outplayed on the other end of the court. Brooks made changes to how they defended (Thabo on Parker and switching on pick and rolls were big), and the turnovers led to lots of run outs. I don't think age really had much to do with this loss, OKC just outplayed them.
What do people think of Beal in the short term and long term?
Really good. Best shooter in the draft. He's going to show way more than he showed at Florida. If I needed a 2, I'd take him. I'd think about taking him ahead of MKG, honestly. Small forwards with their game built around energy and defense with shooting issues scare me, especially in the top 3.
As I responded to baudib, this is not allowed. From the Coon CBA FAQ:
There's also restrictions on how much the salary can decrease in the extended years.
The Spurs were amazing to watch in the couple of games of theirs I saw during the streak, but I kept assuming that a team built around a 30-year-old point, a 34-year-old wing, and a 36-year-old big has a distinct limit to how good they can be defensively, and this club seemed to be playing well above that limit point.
For the season, the Spurs were only a slight tick below the Thunder in defensive efficiency. So while you're right that their defense was most likely overachieving, it also was not as bad as last night. Of course, their defense wasn't the reason they lost.
Also, Brooks might have been a game late, but he pretty much did exactly what we all wanted him to do. He took Perkins out to switch more PNRs and keep up with the Spurs when they stretch out. He gave minutes to Sefolosha, who can add something that nobody else can. In fact, Sefolosha was way better at both ends than anyone expected. The offense probably wont be back, but the defensive length really changed the flow of SA's offense and is going to require some adjustments by Popp.
Exactly.
Is Pippen with a team?
He's on the Bulls payroll, as an ambassador, I think. He has previously talked about wanting to coach, but never has.
What do people think of Beal in the short term and long term?
Hollinger is pretty critical of his shooting. And he's also undersized. So I don't know.
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