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In preseason, I said that it was obvious that the Lakers could win the title, and it was also obvious that the team might not work due to age, depth, health, and fit issues. So far, we are seeing the "not work" scenario.
Bryant's performance last night was a good example of the chicken-egg thing with his USG. It easy to focus on the 16 misses and the 10 TOs, and the fact that Howard only took 10 shots.
OTOH, Gasol, Morris, and MWP were a combined 3/23 from the floor, and the team other than Kobe, who was 11/13 at the line, was a combined 12/30 on FTs, as Hombre noted. Given those numbers, and the fact that Howard was 3/12 from the stripe, it is easy to see why Bryant decided to try to win the game by himself.
This sort of thing is why basketball is so freaking hard to analyze at a player level. There are so many dynamic factors that play into it. So reading this I started to wonder if some positions are more susceptible to output swings based on those factors than others.
In other words it feels to me that the forwards are most susceptible to who they play with and the style of game, whereas guards might be less so. Obviously system and tempo matter, but my first thought is shooting guards are least influenced by other factors and power and small forwards are the most, with PG and Center being influenced potentially by system, but less so by the other players on the floor.
I have spent all of ten minutes thinking about this, so don't you dare tell me I am wrong - seriously though what do people think, are there positional differences in sensitivty to system and who you play with?
(Yes, I'm just bitter that UCI couldn't beat UCLA, but Cal Poly did. Urgh. I don't ask for much, but beating UCLA would have been great for the program.)
But yeah, we're a long-time removed from the 2008 NBA UCLA team.
[606] Watched it yesterday. The thing that stuck with me the most is how young Young LeBron looked. At the time I always thought he looked like a grown man, but I guess not. Or my mind/age is playing tricks on me.
Too bad, but I'd be shocked if he ever stays healthy. On the plus side this should help Jazz get a good pick from Golden State.
Shabazz Muhammad (the #1 or #2 recruit in the country) had his suspension lifted/eligibility restored after the first couple of games and actually played in the Cal Poly loss. I don't follow them enough to know about another guy.
Josh Smith, and from what I been told from UCLA fans, its because Ben Howland didn't baby him like he needed to. (Smith is apparently very sensitive). Also, Smith is a size of a house and looks like it. He got too fat.
for the sixers, they'd get amar'''e without really giving up all that much value, and what value they do give up would be sent to charlotte for a bunch of slop, meaning that the knicks wouldn't get any benefit from them.
the knicks would shed amar'''''e's contract, and get rid of him before he screws up their current melo/chandler dyanmic.
the bobcats would get good players for shitty ones.
but getting back to the sixers (since that's what everything must always be about), they'd have a potential starting lineup of bynum-amare-turner-(shumpert/wright/richardson/young)-holiday with lavoy allen, kwame brown, bismack biyombo, arnett moultrie, maalik wayns, and whatever other pieces they don't trade or put in the starting lineup (spencer hawes, thad young, nick young, jason richardson, dorell wright, or iman shumpert).
amar'''e and bynum would be a very frail 4-5 combo, but if healthy, they'd be a devastating offensive 1-2 punch. if you add the still-young, still-improving backcourt combo of jrue holiday and evan turner, and then whatever else you manage to acquire/hold onto, this team's ceiling seems quite high. even if you have to play without one of bynum or amar''''e, you'd have some really solid defensive players to fill in with. and if you have to play without both of them, well, it's not like you'd be going much of anywhere without bynum anyway.
any thoughts?
You're right, in the sense that "if A, then B" is always correct when A is false.
For those who didn't click, the trade was: NYK get B Gordon (2 y left), Diop. PHI gets Amare, Biyombo, Shumpert. CHA gets Thad Young, Richardson, the immortal Dorrell Wright.
We spent all offseason killing the Knicks for not spending on Lin since they were already capped out and would have a hard time bringing in other talent. Gordon would save money relative to Amare, but not enough to get them under the cap, so what's the point? And even if Amare is not what he once was, you're still better off with him coming in off the bench than Gordon. Plus, Shumpert looked like a possible impact player before the injury, so throwing him in (even with the acl tear) is risk on top of a pointless cash dump.
Plus, this is real life, where the Knicks are unlikely to downgrade from a high profile player to a low profile player.
I think the bigger impediment is that it short-circuits the Charlotte youth movement. Biyombo has shown flashes of usefulness as a defensive anchor. More importantly, Young + Wright + JRich is a bad financial move, makes them a lot older, and does not get them close to contention. They are in a position to basically target flexibility around Kemba and MKG and see what happens. That trade would make them less flexible.
Hopefully that includes backyard wrestling.
Yeah, since they screwed us out of that pick last year. Tanking bastards.
Not that I'm still bitter or anything.
no, shedding amar'''e doesn't get them under the cap, but it does get them under the luxury tax, which is important for monetary purposes as well player acquisition purposes.
all are fair points. but 1, are they actually willing to bring amar'''e off the bench? and 2, is he a good fit coming off the bench playing alongside jr smith, steve novak and marcus camby? 3, shumpert isn't just a throw-in, i'd want him specifically because i do think he is very good.
steagles trade: i don't do that as any of the the three teams, which is impressive.
Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS23 15 9 322 4.0 9.3 .434 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.7 .933 3.2 3.5 6.7 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.6 4.0 9.6
33 14 12 305 3.8 10.5 .360 0.0 0.1 .000 3.0 3.7 .806 3.2 6.7 9.9 2.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 4.7 10.5
30 9 6 112 3.2 7.1 .455 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.9 .444 3.5 4.5 8.0 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 6.1 7.7
24 15 0 306 5.8 12.9 .445 0.5 1.2 .400 1.5 2.6 .591 2.5 7.1 9.5 2.6 0.6 2.4 1.8 4.5 13.5
22 13 13 378 5.5 11.6 .475 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.6 .706 2.8 7.5 10.3 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 12.2
24 15 15 528 6.3 12.2 .514 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.8 .634 2.4 5.6 8.0 1.4 1.6 0.7 1.4 2.7 14.3
I have no idea who any of them are.
Without looking at the stats, I will guess Iguodala and Wright are involved.
The clippers color guy is pretty brutal.
Rk Player Season Age G GS MP FG FGA FG% 3P 3PA 3P% FT FTA FT% ORB DRB TRB AST STL BLK TOV PF PTS1 Lavoy Allen 2012-13 23 15 9 322 4.0 9.3 .434 0.0 0.0 1.6 1.7 .933 3.2 3.5 6.7 2.0 0.2 2.0 1.6 4.0 9.6
2 Elton Brand 2012-13 33 14 12 305 3.8 10.5 .360 0.0 0.1 .000 3.0 3.7 .806 3.2 6.7 9.9 2.4 1.3 2.1 1.8 4.7 10.5
3 Kwame Brown 2012-13 30 9 6 112 3.2 7.1 .455 0.0 0.0 1.3 2.9 .444 3.5 4.5 8.0 1.3 1.0 1.3 0.6 6.1 7.7
4 Spencer Hawes 2012-13 24 15 0 306 5.8 12.9 .445 0.5 1.2 .400 1.5 2.6 .591 2.5 7.1 9.5 2.6 0.6 2.4 1.8 4.5 13.5
5 Nikola Vucevic 2012-13 22 13 13 378 5.5 11.6 .475 0.0 0.0 1.1 1.6 .706 2.8 7.5 10.3 1.9 0.8 1.3 2.2 3.4 12.2
6 Thaddeus Young 2012-13 24 15 15 528 6.3 12.2 .514 0.0 0.0 1.8 2.8 .634 2.4 5.6 8.0 1.4 1.6 0.7 1.4 2.7 14.3
I hate complaining after wins, but the way Corbin is dividing playing time this season is really starting to bug me. IMO Foye, Tinsley, Carroll, and now Earl Watson get too much PT, while Hayward, Burks, Evans, and especially Favors get too little. I'd like to see Kanter get more minutes as well, but I don't know who's floor time he'd take.
And Burks never getting off the bench while Tinsley and Watson combine to play all 48 minutes - while scoring literally zero (!) points between them - makes me want to start breaking things. To their credit, they only took one shot and they did have 13 assists, but still...
Jazz seem to hate Burks, and appear to be fine just letting him rot on the bench while Tinsley and Watson keep getting PT.
Hayward is still getting PT off the bench, and I think getting more time away from Jefferson and Millsap might be good for him so he's more active in the offense.
In addition to the trade evaluator itself, hopefully anyone involved with the Sixers. I don't want to see Amar'e here. He's expensive, old, declining, possibly a locker-room issue, and injury-prone - what's not to like there, except everything? Was the goal there to subtly tank the season for a better pick?
The Knicks benefit to that trade is the lack of Amar'e and his contract. Not sure I do it as them, but possibly. Charlotte has no incentive to give Biyombo for that package, as much as I love Thad Young as a player.
In the choose two, clearly you don't want the old guys. I'd probably want Vucevic & Young. I think Hawes is done developing, and I am pretty sure Lavoy Allen is close to done developing - he's an adequate defense & rebounding PF with work ethic issues.
these are all first round guys. and they're not even guys who were destined to bust, either. i liked morris almond when he came out. same thing with wes johnson and james anderson and dominique jones, but they're just haven't been many SGs to come out who are actually good. the only good (not just decent, but actually good) SGs to come out in the last ~5 years have been eric gordon and james harden. and even eric gordon hasn't been that good.
i actually think this is just the way things are gonna be for the foreseeable future. if you have handle, you're a PG. if you have size, you're a SF. but SGs? they're just guys who aren't big/long enough to guard the 3 and who aren't good enough with the ball in their hands to run the point. i know the traditional positions are fading from relevance, but i think the lack of quality SGs will only be exacerbated by that.
Sure. I like his athleticism and potential, but I think there's a high bust chance with him since he's not a good shooter. However, his rookie season was decent for someone so raw, and the Jazz have not given him any chance this season to show whether he can build off of that. If Corbin was taking away his PT to play good players it wouldn't bother me so much, but they're not playing him because he might be bad while they're playing Tinsley and Watson (and Carroll) who they *should* know are definitely awful.
for the cost of acquisition, amar'''''e offers the greatest potential. if you look at what he does, he has range out to 18-20 feet, and that fits the sixers offense. he is great out of the pick and roll (even with his decline last season, he was still one of the best pnr screeners in the NBA, according to synergy), and that fits the sixers offense. he gets to the FT line, and that again fits the sixers offense (or at least, it's something the sixers offense would benefit from).
if we assume the health of bynum and we assume the health of amar''''e (yeah, yeah, i know "if A, then B..."), you have one of the best cutters/pnr screeners in the NBA (amar''''e) and you have one of the best post-up bigs in the NBA (bynum). and you have 2 forwards who get to the FT line 4-5 times per game and hit their FTs at a solid rate.
and then, w/r/t injuries, i think that's a bigger factor for bynum than it is with amar'''e. amar'''e had microfracture surgery and then came back the next year and played 82 games. he's had back/knee issues for a while, but he's played 78+ games in 4 of the last 6 years (and that's with last year being cut short by the lockout/fire extinguisher), which indicates to me that he plays through whatever's nagging him.
i just don't see this as being that much of a risk (at least in terms of championship likelihood). if amar'''e sucks, but bynum's healthy, the sixers will be basically the same team they were supposed to be. if bynum's hurt, but amar'''e is healthy and productive, then you are basically last year's team, except you have a legitimately good scoring forward. and if bynum's hurt and amar'''e sucks, you're basically right where you are now, in that you're too good to be at the top of the lottery and you're nowhere near good enough to get to the second round without an insane amount of luck.
but...if bynum's healthy and if amar'''e is good, you have the two best interior scorers in the eastern conference (really, who's better? bosh? maybe. but boozer? garnett? lopez?), plus jrue holiday, plus evan turner, plus whatever else you manage to keep (hawes, young, young, richardson, wright, wayns, allen, brown) or acquire.
I think Tom nailed it in #649. I actually think it's pretty likely that he's not going to be very good, but the Jazz should at least give him a chance to find out for sure. They're sitting a guy that has an outside shot of being good in favor of some vets that they KNOW aren't very good.
This is fairly true, isn't it? He went on to point out Yao, Oden, Bynum, and Bogut all haven't had the careers they could have. A few key career-ending/altering injuries can really alter the landscape for a generation.
Well it shows some respect for reality anyway.
What is going on in Dallas?
---
Maybe this Nets/C's thing might actually be a thing.
Seriously, Southwest? The Spurs aren't springing for more, not even first class?
It amuses me to think of them in the C boarding group getting stuck in middle seats.
just to go back to iguodala, since i'm familiar with him, he was viewed as one of the best defenders in the NBA, but in moving from philly to denver, denver's D-rating has improved from 20th in the league last year all the way to 18th this year. and iguodala himself has gone from a 98 D-rating last year to a 105 D-rating this year.
similarly, jason richardson, dorell wright, and nick young have all seen their D-ratings improve drastically. richardson's has gone from 105 last year to a 100 this year. dorell wright has gone from 109 to 99. and nick young has gone from 110 to 106. in addition, all 3 of these players are 8 points better than their career D-ratings.
when it comes to defense, coaching matters, coachability matters, intelligence matters, effort matters, and physical ability matters, but i believe that, for the most part, those last 4 things are present in ~80% of the players in the NBA, so the difference between their individual performance is, again for the most part, that first one -- coaching. if you have someone on the bench who is competent and respected and who gets the team to buy in, i think it's pretty easy to turn a poor defensive team into an average or above one, or to turn a poor defensive player into an average or above one.
Because clearly, Gregg Popovich doesn't know what's best for his team.
This is pretty outrageous.
I think so too. Well, I think individual defense is overrated. But I think individual contribution to team defense is very important. And that's not something that Amar'e brings to the table. Yes, system matters. But so does players contributing to that system.
He certainly doesn't know what's best for opposing fans.
I think a suspension of the 4 for the next home game is reasonable.
Really?? That would be outrageous. I think the most he can do is fine the organization (which would also be BS).
What rule did they break, though? Why should the league have the right do dictate anything like this, especially without letting teams know ahead of time of the new rules? Any real sanction here would be sudden and ex post facto.
This is why the league has an interest. Also: basketball reasons.
How is this worse than GS last year?
And the whole thing should be captured on film (from a tasteful angle) for a reality TV show.
I agree that Popovich and the Spurs should not be punished, but I also think this is a bit of grandstanding by Popovich. He obviously knew that sitting all those guys for a national TV game in Miami would cause a mini-shitstorm.
Also, Memphis is playing some big time basketball.
Perhaps; Popovich is a shrewd man, and his style is a subtle one. But I tend to think if he was "trolling" anyone, it was the league, not the Heat. Riley and Spoelstra didn't draw up the San Antonio schedule. Also, every team plays in 4-in-5s--the Lakers just did it last week.
That's not really the point, though. Like I said, I don't think the league should do anything; if Popovich wants to sit his guys, then he should be able to. But I don't think it is cool or cute or anything like that, either. I like it on a visceral level because I like tweaking Stern, but even with the SA bench "playing up", Popovich took something away from the fans who paid hefty prices to see the game.
I just spent about $200 buying two nosebleed Lakers tickets as a Christmas gift for a working-class family that I know who can't afford such things so their son can see a game live. In thanking me, he made a point of listing all the stars on both the Lakers and that night's opponent (the Clippers) and talked about how much he really, really hopes that Paul, Kobe, Nash, Griffin et al all play that night so he can see them all in person on the court. It is not Gregg Popovich's job to care about stuff like that, but stuff like that definitely matters to the league, as well it should.
The point Kenny Smith made on the TNT halftime show is- how is that any different from a team sitting it's starters at the end of the year once they've clinched a playoff spot? Why is it acceptable to take something away from the fans in April but not in a game in November, a month into the season? Obviously this is all about Stern's ego.
The competitive ecology argument is somewhat different than the entertainment/dollar argument, and Smith is conflating the two. Anybody really upset with Popovich should hope that Miami goes 59-23, San Antonio goes 58-24, the Spurs lose Game 7 in Miami in June, and the first question to Popovich in the presser is, "Remember that game here in November when you sat your three best players and lost by five?"
Also, in the NBA, the question isn't usually so much so "clinching a playoff spot" as it is "clinching the seeding you want" and different coaches play that different ways. If the Spurs and OKC are both 56-25 going into the last game of the season, but Duncan needs a day off, well, we will see what Popovich does. I am not sure how he has played it in the past. Phil Jackson sat Kobe late in 2010, putting rest ahead of seeding. In other years, he didn't play it that way.
Finally, I think it is "acceptable." I have said that I don't think Stern should do anything. But I think it is fine if he SAYS something negative about it, like "I disagree with what Coach Popovich did there, and I think it hurt the fans." I don't see what Popovich did as being irrelevant from the league's POV. The league markets the regular-season to casual fans based on marquee TV games; it doesn't market based on a Warriors/Kings game in April.
This. April is different because April is different. There are trade-offs for the NBA between putting the best product on the floor every night and allowing coaches to do whatever they want to increase their odds of a championship or whatever. Just because they decide it is one thing in April when everyone sort of knows it might happen and it has a direct effect on rest and seeding for the playoffs doesn't mean that Stern is somehow out of line for saying its an entirely different thing in ####### November.
Where I live now, I am basically one of the only hardcore NBA fans. I hear all the time from the generalized sports fans around here that they don't watch the NBA much in the regular season because none of them care until the playoffs. Having spent a few years going to a lot of regular season games, I think that's mostly ########, but it is nonetheless a perception that the league battles. Having Popovich not even bring half his rotation to a big TV game does not help.
When I was still in Memphis, I had a buddy living in Middle Tennessee who had been a big fan of the Spurs and in particular Duncan for a long time. He drove 4 1/2 hours to come see a game with me when the Spurs were in town. If Pop had left Timmy, Manu, and Tony in San Antonio it would have been pretty crappy. That's the thing that Stern is and should be concerned about.
Also, if anyone doubts this was Pop trying to make some statement (don't ask me what, I don't get it), to the league, I watched the Spurs play their normal guys on Monday night in-person against possibly the worst team in league history. I assure you they could have defeated the Wiz sans Duncan, Parker, and Ginobili. They all came out early, it was a blowout, but they did play.
The whole controversy speaks to the odd dynamic of pro leagues. Each team is supposed to act as an independent entity in trying to win as much as it can, but at its heart each league is a collective with the product being the competition between entities and anything which seriously compromises that competition (in reality or even perception) is a danger to the collective even if it is beneficial to a single team.
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8692304/san-antonio-spurs-sit-4-top-5-scorers-vs-miami-heat
I know he didn't mean it this way, but it's kind of like, "Four games in five nights? F you..."
Well, my guess is that he did kind of mean it that way, but of course I don't know. As Crosseyed and Painless and Maxwn note from different angles, playing an 82-game schedule and having more than half the teams in the league make postseason creates some structural and perception problems. OTOH, I doubt that Stern, Popovich, the Spurs owners, and the Spurs players would like to see pay/revenues cut back by by 25-30% or so to play a 64-game schedule and have only four teams per conference (three division winners and a Wild card) make the playoffs instead of 8, which I think would probably be a better product in terms of actual basketball. And, as I said, AFAIK every NBA team plays at least one 4-in-5, as the Lakers did last week.
It's not random. It's the 4th game in 5 days, all on the road. They've been on a road trip since the 21st. He did not pick this game at random.
Popovich took something away from the fans who paid hefty prices to see the game.
What about when stars get hurt? Do the fans get refunds then? Does every fan that paid to see the Bulls this year get some money back?
What's Stern going to do when Pop brings those guys, starts them and has them play one minute, and then they sit the rest of the game? Fine him for his player rotations?
They just played Toronto and the Wizards. Didn't seem to be an issue then. I agree, though, that it wasn't at random.
And no one could be rested before this? Yeah not random, but that doesn't make it OK (or bad I guess).
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