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Monday, December 03, 2012

OT: NBA Thread - December 2012

Since Jack Haley and Steve Scheffler were mentioned, it must be time for another thread.

The District Attorney Posted: December 03, 2012 at 10:17 PM | 513 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   101. smileyy Posted: December 06, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4319034)
[99] I agree. I'm astounded at how much bigger the NBA court seems. I think its a combination of three things:

(1) The larger area within the arc simply creating more space in which the offense operates
(2) The need to respect the 18' jumper, which most NBA players can hit if left completely open, and many college players cannot
(3) NBA players are quicker, and are more able to get out on shooters, so they can leave more space, because they can recover faster.
   102. andrewberg Posted: December 06, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4319046)
A 30-second shot clock would be a start. I think NCAA Men's Basketball has the longest shot clock of...pretty much every basketball organization, everywhere?


There is some state- maybe Montana- that still has no shot clock for high school girls. Of course, the NCAA should probably see that as a warning rather than an aspiration.

Georgetown's offense, Syracuse's zone, Boston College running the flex, etc, that stuff is fun to watch, and, for me at least, much easier to understand than the stuff NBA teams run.


I think that is because there is more action on the ball. In the NBA, a play is won or lost around the rim rather the ball gets there or not. Unless I'm watching the Timberwolves, I mostly just stare at the charge circle instead of the ball itself. There is a lot more action there.
   103. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2012 at 05:53 PM (#4319069)
I think that is because there is more action on the ball. In the NBA, a play is won or lost around the rim rather the ball gets there or not.


Very true. They're also smaller and less athletic, so you can really actually see a team run the Princeton offense and see what's happening in real time, whereas when an NBA team runs some kind of modified Princeton offense, it looks much different. Same with the flex. I admit I haven't seen BC recently, but they were literally running what a lot of good high school programs run, only they of course had much better players and were running plays out of it. Either way, I barely understand what most NBA teams are doing, except for the Knicks of course, because it's just Carmelo standing around and dribbling (I kid!).
   104. Jimmy P Posted: December 06, 2012 at 06:35 PM (#4319118)
A 30-second shot clock would be a start.

I'd almost be tempted to go even shorter. A lot of teams appear to have the strategy of being more interested in defense and really struggling on offense. It's just no fun to watch.

And the charge rule is laughable.
   105. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 06, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4319187)
Pat Riley's on the Costas interview show saying that this past Olympic team would have beaten the 1992 Dream Team.
   106. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 06, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4319195)
My general feeling is that men's college basketball has embraced the notion that the 15-20' jumper is a really poor shot

The pros are moving to this conclusion as well (it comes up in the recent Ballard piece on Morey) - largely 'cause it is. Low expected value on the shot, even poor offensive rebounding rates. Helps with floor spacing and game theoretic stuff (if you shoot them infrequently enough), but - yeah.

I'd like a 30 second clock and deeper 3-pt line as well.
   107. Booey Posted: December 06, 2012 at 10:40 PM (#4319197)
Pat Riley's on the Costas interview show saying that this past Olympic team would have beaten the 1992 Dream Team.


I could see it. But only cuz the original Dream Teamers are all hitting 50...
   108. Spivey Posted: December 06, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4319209)
College basketball is just terrible. I think watching the NBA more helped make me realize that, but college play has also gotten worse. I think part of the problem is that now guys are more interested in going to a smaller school where they can play than go to a big school and ride pine. A lot more parity, which means the teams we watch aren't that deep or good.
   109. puck Posted: December 06, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4319215)
I think college ball is much more enjoyable in person. Well, all sports pretty much are, but the gain in the college environment is huge.
   110. JC in DC Posted: December 06, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4319218)
A couple of things:

(1) Mike Woodson can coach;
(2) J.R. Smith is becoming a steady, all-around player; he gives NY a lot of athleticism;
(3) Sheed can still play; he's such a good defender and despite his hotheadedness, he's a very smart player;
(4) Grunwald did some smart ####. The 3-headed PG is working.

   111. Conor Posted: December 06, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4319219)
I just wish Sheed didn't shoot so much, especially 3's. He's second on the team in shots per minute (not counting Chris Copeland). He's taking 8 3's per 36 and he's now 16-58. But he is, for the most part, a very smart player.

And the Knicks are insane from 3 tonight. 18-40.
   112. ASmitty Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4319232)
Sheed, in his prime, was one of the best defensive players I've ever seen, minus rebounding. If I were constructing a dream defense, he would probably be on it. The fact that he was a weak rebounder really kept his defense from being acknowledged.
   113. PJ Martinez Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4319245)
Perhaps this has already been noted (I don't know how long this has been the case), but the Knicks are the only team in the league that is still unbeaten at home. (They have played relatively few home games, though.)
   114. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:19 AM (#4319275)
On the one hand, the Kobe assist stuff is interesting, but on the other hand, this.
   115. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 07, 2012 at 06:59 AM (#4319280)
Knicks' regular season record under Mike Woodson: 32-10.
   116. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 07:12 AM (#4319282)
Are the Knicks good yet?
   117. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 07:24 AM (#4319283)
LeBron rips a page from The KobeSystem by Kobe Bryant:
After playing 39 minutes and posting a near triple-double -- 31 points, 10 rebounds and 9 assists -- in the Knicks' 112-92 win, James apparently worked off some frustration after consecutive losses and the Heat's second 20-point defeat to the Knicks in a little more than a month.

"I've got to be better, it's that simple," James said. "I'm here and I'm the last one to leave. ... They pretty much just kicked our ass in two games."
   118. Booey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:42 PM (#4319428)
the Knicks are the only team in the league that is still unbeaten at home


Damn Billups...
   119. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4319445)
the sixers are playing boston tonight and tomorrow in a home and home series. would it be wrong for me to say that i think the sixers will win at least one of these games by 20?


why, yes, yes it would be wrong. in fact, i'm fairly sure they'll lose both by double digits on the way to a very ugly, very depressing next 2 months.
   120. JC in DC Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:08 PM (#4319514)
LBJ was awesome last night, but he cannot do it alone. Chalmers was a nothing, Wade was out of it, and Bosh was ok, but he can be so lethargic. Chandler's size bothered them.
   121. Jimmy P Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4319530)
Wade was out of it

Wade's been mailing it in this season. Plenty of reporters and commentators saying he's hurt. If he's that hurt, he should just take a few weeks off, because right now he looks as disinterested as Melo last season.
   122. Chicago Joe Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4319549)
I'd almost be tempted to go even shorter. A lot of teams appear to have the strategy of being more interested in defense and really struggling on offense. It's just no fun to watch.


You do know the Illini have a new coach, right?
   123. smileyy Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4319607)
From the potential-future-narratives department:

If Wade's wheels are starting to fall off or if there's a "can't get motivated to be the beta or gamma dog" in Dwyane Wade, LeBron's ability to choose teammates might be an interesting story to his career.
   124. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4319688)
   125. andrewberg Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4319694)
My mind cannot get clouded with everybody telling me how to shoot a free throw. I just have to go up there and shoot it my way and not get caught up in what everybody else is saying, because that's when I miss.


Oh is that when you miss?
   126. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 07, 2012 at 06:43 PM (#4319734)
Steve Nash tries to help Dwight with his free-throw shooting, Dwight says no.
i know i'm just another one of those guys, but forget about his shot; his posture when he gets up to the line is terrible. his feet are close together, there's no bend in his knees, and he stands almost completely upright. i'm sure there's a lot of other #### that he does wrong, but that seems like the most easily correctable flaw.
   127. smileyy Posted: December 07, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4319740)
Dwight Howard is certainly endearing himself to the Lakers, isn't he?

Bryant cited former teammate Shaquille O'Neal as an example of how Howard can improve at the line if he makes it a priority.

"Shaq, he had a tough time at the free throw line, but he got to a place where the critical stretches of ballgames, he really knocked them down," Bryant said of O'Neal, who played a crucial role on four championship-winning teams in Los Angeles and Miami despite shooting just 52.7 percent from the free throw line for his career. "Maybe he was about 50 percent, but it seemed like in games where there were big ones, it seemed like he didn't miss them. He got to that place just by working. That really meant a lot to him and he took on that responsibility of having to make them."


Maybe I'm hearing what I want to hear from Kobe, but I'm interpreting a "Man, you guys all know I can't stand Shaq, but at least he delivered compared to my current teammate..."
   128. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 07, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4319744)
Wade's been mailing it in this season. Plenty of reporters and commentators saying he's hurt. If he's that hurt, he should just take a few weeks off, because right now he looks as disinterested as Melo last season.
just for a bit of fun, if evan turner was putting up dwyane wade numbers (19, 4, and 4 on 47% shooting), how many (more) posts per week do you think there'd be in this thread about evan turner?
   129. Booey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:38 PM (#4319781)
just for a bit of fun, if evan turner was putting up dwyane wade numbers (19, 4, and 4 on 47% shooting), how many (more) posts per week do you think there'd be in this thread about evan turner?


Well, you tell us, since most of them would be from you! ;-)
   130. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4319788)
I think this gif perfectly encapsulates JaVale McGee.
   131. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4319791)
On the scale of Simmons psychoanalyzing Kobe yet again, I thought this was actually a pretty good read.

[130] is amazing.
   132. Spivey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:11 PM (#4319797)
I don't understand why Shaq gets some bullshit credit for "making free throws when they count". I find that highly ####### dubious. And they all count. Howard is weird though - he wasn't that bad of a free throw shooter a couple of years ago.
   133. Spivey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4319802)
Evan Turner's late game play is absolute garbage tonight. I missed the first 46 minutes, and he has solid numbers, so presumably he didn't look like an unathletic clown the whole game.
   134. PJ Martinez Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4319803)
Love the confidence Doc showed in Rondo there, but even so, he is probably not the guy who should take that shot with Pierce, Terry, and Garnett all on the floor.
   135. PJ Martinez Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4319805)
Nice shot by Turner there.
   136. PJ Martinez Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4319807)
Again the confidence in Rondo (if it was drawn up that way? not clear), but KG probably should have just taken that.
   137. Spivey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 10:59 PM (#4319808)
Rondo sprained his ankle late in regulation and then slipped right there, neither looked serious though.

Turner did make a big shot at the end there... I thought they were running way too much iso with Turner even when Holliday was still on the court.
   138. Spivey Posted: December 07, 2012 at 11:02 PM (#4319809)
Obnoxious Kobe Bryant Stat: He has been on the first or second all-defensive team every time but once in the last 12 years.
   139. andrewberg Posted: December 07, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4319816)
IN the matchup of the NBA's top two rebounders, Varejao got one more (14) than Love (13). Love outscored him by 32, though.
   140. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:33 AM (#4319829)
Evan Turner's late game play is absolute garbage tonight. I missed the first 46 minutes, and he has solid numbers, so presumably he didn't look like an unathletic clown the whole game.
Turner did make a big shot at the end there... I thought they were running way too much iso with Turner even when Holliday was still on the court.
they had nothing else. jrue didn't have a very good game (and was in foul trouble the whole second half, to boot), the team as a whole shot 2/11 from beyond the arc, and almost all of the scoring you got from the frontcourt (allen, young, and hawes) came off offensive rebounds or on the break or at the foulline.

on any given night, the sixers' halfcourt offense ranges from mediocre to horrendous, but when that comes up against a defense like boston's, things get real ugly, real quick.


the difference in this game was the number of possessions. the sixers had 10 more offensive rebounds, 9 fewer turnovers and 18 more shot attempts. well, it didn't hurt that pierce and terry went a combined 2/15 from beyond the arc, either.


i guess it's good to see the team battle through adversity and come out on top, but they just are not at all a fun team to watch.
   141. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4319835)
My. Looks like Joakim Noah had a night.
   142. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4319840)
Obnoxious Kobe Bryant Stat: He has been on the first or second all-defensive team every time but once in the last 12 years.
You can mention how that fueled your fire in your Hall of Fame speech.
   143. robinred Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:45 PM (#4319924)
Long interview with Stephen Jackson on rap, The Brawl and other stuff

What guilty pleasures are on your iPod?


I’ve got Ashlee Simpson’s song “Pieces Of Me.” I listen to that every day to relax me before games.

I mess people up when I’m on the plane listening to Guns N’ Roses’ “Sweet Child o’ Mine.”

I got that song by JoJo called “Too Little, Too Late.” I love that beat.

I’ve got a lot of old-school stuff like Hall & Oates.
   144. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 08, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4319960)
My. Looks like Joakim Noah had a night.

Yes. 30pts/23red(10off)/6ast/2blk/2st/2TO. 12/19 shooting (6/7FT). Absolutely carried the team, monster effort. Really fun to watch (first time I've said that about anything Bulls related this year).
   145. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 08, 2012 at 02:52 PM (#4319982)
I’ve got a lot of old-school stuff like Hall & Oates.
I wonder if Jax knows about Live from Daryl's House.
   146. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: December 08, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4320039)
On the scale of Simmons psychoanalyzing Kobe yet again, I thought this was actually a pretty good read.


I like Walton saying that Simmons' distaste for Kobe was based entirely on not liking Kobe's style. And kudos to Simmons for including that.
   147. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 08, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4320092)
There are so many money quotes in [143]. I think this is my favorite:

How did you get through all that?

When Donnie Walsh was in Indiana with me, he had my back. He knew my heart and knew what kind of person I was. I would have never went in the stands on my own. I would have never shot up a strip club on my own.

It was always to help somebody, so when people say that type of stuff, it definitely pisses me off.
   148. Der-K thinks the Essex Green were a good band. Posted: December 08, 2012 at 07:11 PM (#4320093)
[130] if i could use a gif as wallpaper...
   149. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 08, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4320138)
28 points in the first half.


woooooooo!!!!! sixers basketball, baby!!


   150. robinred Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:18 AM (#4320197)
Thibodeau played Deng, Noah, and Belinelli 47, 44 and 45 minutes tonight, in response to Hinrich and Gibson being out (Gibson played 12). Boozer only went 22.

D'Antoni had Bryant and Howard go 43 and 41 against OKC, and Brooks had Durant and Westbrook go 40 and 44 (don't recall who had the 44 and the 40, but I recall the numbers).
   151. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:39 AM (#4320270)
Thibodeau played Deng, Noah, and Belinelli 47, 44 and 45 minutes tonight, in response to Hinrich and Gibson being out (Gibson played 12). Boozer only went 22.

Last night was the 4th game in 5 nights for the Bulls, Deng played over 40 minutes in each (this game being his high minute mark). Gibson* was ejected in the 2nd quarter on a really weak double tech (it seemed like a baseball ejection) - he seemed to earn a tech complaining depending on what he said, but not sure why he got 2. Hinrich hurt his elbow or something and didn't play in the 2nd half (he played 15 min in the 1st half). Like I've said before, Thibs is going to run Deng and Noah* into the ground (still 1 and 2 in MPG at 41.2 and 39.8 respectively). When Rose comes back this year, he's going to be the only player healthy.

Considering it was the first time I've extensively watched the Knicks this year (and the previous factors mentioned for the Bulls), I can conclusively say in response to NJ's post 116 is No. Or more accurately, they're exactly who I thought they'd be. They're tougher than last year (any team that adds Kurt Thomas is automatically 75% tougher) and are probably not going to go out quietly in the playoffs to anyone. They might be the 2nd best team in the East at the moment, but I think that's just as much (from my perspective anyway) other teams struggling/underperforming than the Knicks being better that projected. I'll be surprised if Kidd and Felton are this good all year (it's a career year for Felton so far and Kidd is playing as good as he was in his Nets prime), and that probably brings the Knicks back to the pack. Remember, this is based solely on one game played without Melo and looking up their stats, so take that for what it's worth...

*Taj is actually playing the fewest MPG of his career so far this year (19.9). He is struggling, his stats are virtually career lows across the board, including his shooting. He seems to be mentally struggling too (or as a result, not sure which is the cause and which is the effect) and his defense is suffering at times. Hopefully he snaps out of it soon, I would have thought he'd be playing closer to 30 mins a night.
**Jo almost had a triple double - 10pts, 11reb, 9TO.
   152. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 09, 2012 at 04:22 PM (#4320376)
This is just amazing.
Worst freethrow ever
   153. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 09, 2012 at 09:22 PM (#4320480)
This is just amazing.
Worst freethrow ever
someone must have turned on the air conditioner.
   154. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:46 PM (#4320547)
I've praised Javale all year so I feel obligated to come here and point out that there is 8:52 left in the game against the Knicks and he has played mindblowingly terrible basketball today.
   155. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4320550)
I think this gif perfectly encapsulates JaVale McGee.

I now he does some bad things on the court but at what point do you just play the guy 30-35 minutes a game and see what happens? His PER is 24.2. It's not the only number that matters but that's a big a number.
   156. Avoid running at all times.-S. Paige Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:00 PM (#4320557)
This is just amazing.
Worst freethrow ever


I really hope a points shaving conspiracy is behind this.
   157. The District Attorney Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4320579)
Marc A. Spears:
NBA says Spurs Stephen Jackson has been fined $25,000 for "issuing a hostile statement" at Thunder's Serge Ibaka in a Twitter message.
The Spurs may have fined him as well, not sure.

The message, for posterity, was:
Somebody tell serg Abaka. He aint bout dis life. Next time he run up on me im goin in his mouth. That's a promise. He doin 2 much.
   158. andrewberg Posted: December 10, 2012 at 02:25 PM (#4321046)
Somebody tell serg Abaka. He aint bout dis life


Is Stephen Jackson auditioning for Bad Girls Club?
   159. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 10, 2012 at 02:43 PM (#4321074)
"Somebody tell serg Abaka. He aint bout dis life"



Is Stephen Jackson auditioning for Bad Girls Club?


I was puzzled; isn't prioritizing the life to come exactly what a good Christian should do?
   160. Jimmy P Posted: December 10, 2012 at 06:41 PM (#4321298)
The message, for posterity, was:


He clearly wrote the apology, too:

I apologize to @sergeibaka, the NBA, and to all my fans for the comments i made. It was unprofessional and childish. Im not a thug just a man who speaks his mind. It was not appropriate. I do apologize. Only a man can admit when he's wrong.
   161. smileyy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4321404)
Only a man can admit when he's wrong.


I bet "serg Abaka" has never admitted that he's wrong, and thus, is not a man.
   162. JuanGone..except1game Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4321418)
This Big Country retrospective is magical.
   163. bob gee Posted: December 10, 2012 at 10:58 PM (#4321447)
lin's having a real good game again tonight.

he hasn't been doing too much passing (a couple were dropped) but he's back to being aggressive within his game. a couple of his two pointers were "foot on the line" twos...
   164. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:34 PM (#4321480)
Manu's taken over overtime.
   165. bob gee Posted: December 10, 2012 at 11:40 PM (#4321485)
neal can't miss when he's open.
rox couldn't stop parker either.
   166. baudib Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:03 AM (#4321547)
I've been to 2 Nets games -- I think that makes me a Nets fan.

I have barely watched a second of them on TV otherwise.

Based on that huge sample, I have some observations:

1. I've yet to see a game where Deron Williams was the best guard on the floor. In fact, he was pretty thoroughly outplayed twice, by Kyle Lowry and Brandon Jennings.
2. Kris Humphries looks awful, I hate his game. He looks to be by far the worst big that the Nets put out there.
3. Joe Johnson really look useless. The Nets look a lot better when he's not on the floor, IMO, and their small lineup that includes Williams, Marshon Brooks looks pretty good.
4. Gerald Wallace is a beast, at times.

   167. Jimmy P Posted: December 11, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4321819)
1. I've yet to see a game where Deron Williams was the best guard on the floor. In fact, he was pretty thoroughly outplayed twice, by Kyle Lowry and Brandon Jennings.


This is year three of him not being what he was. At what point do we stop saying it's a slump or a bad year and just say that this is what he is now?
   168. smileyy Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4321889)
Its probably about that time. I think his previous total upside is a reason that you can't write him off completely -- I could see him having some sort of late-career resurgence based off of a new use or twist on his previous skills.
   169. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4321930)
The post-Sloan demise of Williams and Boozer.
   170. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 11, 2012 at 05:42 PM (#4322262)
First Hollinger Playoff Odds Report:

EAST
1. NYK 58-24
2. MIA 53-29
3. BKN 48-34
4. ATL 48-34
5. CHI 45-37
6. BOS 44-38
7. IND 42-40
8. MIL 41-41

WEST
1. SAS 63-19
2. OKC 61-21
3. LAC 55-27
4. MEM 53-29
5. GSW 46-36
6. DEN 45-37
7. UTH 44-38
8. LAL 42-40
   171. Famous Original Joe C Posted: December 11, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4322269)
EAST
1. NYK 58-24 under
2. MIA 53-29 over
3. BKN 48-34 under
4. ATL 48-34 fine
5. CHI 45-37 over
6. BOS 44-38 over
7. IND 42-40 fine
8. MIL 41-41 fine

WEST
1. SAS 63-19 fine
2. OKC 61-21 fine
3. LAC 55-27 fine
4. MEM 53-29 fine
5. GSW 46-36 fine
6. DEN 45-37 fine
7. UTH 44-38 fine
8. LAL 42-40 over
   172. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 11, 2012 at 05:59 PM (#4322274)
Hmm, no mention of the ball punching or ball wrestling incidents from last night.
   173. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 11, 2012 at 06:02 PM (#4322277)
Maybe I just don't remember the playoff odd reports from this early in the season before, but those variances between best and worst are quite amusing to me. Eyeballing it, most teams have a variance of about 30 games or so. I mean, what's the point?
   174. andrewberg Posted: December 11, 2012 at 06:33 PM (#4322309)
The Woj article about Love and the Wolves was horribly depressing to read. I went into it trying to just focus on what Love actually said, not Woj's hatchet editorializing, but Love's own comments were almost completely transparent about his desire to get as far away from Kahn and Taylor as possible. It kills the fallback of "there's always next year," which is pretty much the lifeblood of sports. Now I am left watching every game as a referendum on his possible future with the team. Way too much pressure.
   175. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 11, 2012 at 07:14 PM (#4322336)
I am definitely taking the under on the Warriors.
   176. Athletic Supporter can feel the slow rot Posted: December 11, 2012 at 07:21 PM (#4322347)
Those odds are useless since they don't use priors at all, and the variances are useless since they assume that the team strength is absolutely known based on what we've seen so far. They really don't tell you anything that the standings don't -- all the playoff odds are gonna be too close to 0/100, and the projections are just going to look like the current records with some mild pyth/sos adjustments. If you actually wanted to make reasonable playoff etc. odds you could put effort into this (not that I am saying that Hollinger should or that this is a good use of his time).
   177. Jimmy P Posted: December 11, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4322360)
Hmm, no mention of the ball punching or ball wrestling incidents from last night.


the punch: pretty run of the mill from Cousins.
the wrestling: the only entertaining thing from that game. I think the Blazers going 0-20 from three and still winning was more interesting. And, wow, the Raptors have mailed in the season already?

I am definitely taking the under on the Warriors.


I guess I would, but not much under. I think they're better than .500, and I'm not sure they're any worse than Utah or Denver.
   178. JC in DC Posted: December 11, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4322499)
What is LA's record since D'Antoni took over?
   179. PJ Martinez Posted: December 11, 2012 at 11:39 PM (#4322572)
Don't know, but apparently they're 1-10 this season when Kobe scores 30 or more? Which would seem to mean that when the team is going bad, he tries to do/has to do too much. Amazing that he's doing it efficiently, too, and it still hasn't been enough.

Edit: Watched highlights of tonight's game, saw Varejao just blow by Howard. Was just one play, but did not look like the Dwight Howard I remember. (Have barely watched LAL so far this season.)
   180. Booey Posted: December 11, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4322575)
I am definitely taking the under on the Warriors.


I guess I would, but not much under. I think they're better than .500, and I'm not sure they're any worse than Utah or Denver.


But the Warriors have one major disadvantage those other teams don't - they're still the Warriors.
   181. Maxwn Posted: December 12, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4322593)
What is LA's record since D'Antoni took over?

I'm pretty sure they were 1-4 when Mike Brown got fired. That would make them 8-9 since then. Looks like Bernie Bickerstaff went 4-1 during his brief reign, so that would make D'Antoni 4-8. I haven't really watched them and only took like 3 secs to google around for this, so it's possible that's not all exactly right.
   182. Maxwn Posted: December 12, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4322609)
Don't know, but apparently they're 1-10 this season when Kobe scores 30 or more? Which would seem to mean that when the team is going bad, he tries to do/has to do too much. Amazing that he's doing it efficiently, too, and it still hasn't been enough.

See, the last line of this quote is why I don't think it's accurate to phrase this as Kobe trying/having to do too much. He's scoring 29 a game on a 61% true shooting percentage this year. If you can score that much that efficiently, then damn it, you should. To believe that their struggles are related to Kobe doing too much, you have to believe that there's some sort of secondary effect on the offense, from taking everyone else out of their game or something, that overwhelms the primary benefit that you get from someone scoring 30+ on 61% TS. I find it impossible to believe that the secondary effect can possibly be that large. Hell, I'm not even sure that I can believe that the secondary effects of someone scoring that efficiently on the offense of other players can even be negative.

That doing too much description is sort of a holdover for previous seasons where Kobe wasn't nearly this efficient. It might have been plausible those years, but I can't buy it this year.
   183. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: December 12, 2012 at 12:45 AM (#4322611)
Shouldnt that have been over the back on griffen on that dunk? Or at least a foul for mugging nate i cant wait to take a bad shot robinson right aftet?
   184. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:07 AM (#4322634)
Then again i may be biased.......i cant wait for rose to return
   185. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:27 AM (#4322650)
See, the last line of this quote is why I don't think it's accurate to phrase this as Kobe trying/having to do too much. He's scoring 29 a game on a 61% true shooting percentage this year. If you can score that much that efficiently, then damn it, you should.
This. Look at tonight's game, for instance. The non-Kobe contingent shot 15-47 (32%), and 4-16 from the arc (25%). A bunch of those 3s were wide open looks, but shots were often hurried and guys just looked off-balance.

Edit: Watched highlights of tonight's game, saw Varejao just blow by Howard. Was just one play, but did not look like the Dwight Howard I remember. (Have barely watched LAL so far this season.)
That made the highlights, but Howard played a man's game tonight. D12 played some incredible defense, especially in the 2nd quarter, changing shots and grabbing boards and trying to cover the entire painted area by himself. The Cavs had 25 points in the 2nd quarter, but they should have had 35, and by the 4th, you could see Howard was gassed.

Yes, Kobe and Howard are great, but look at what the Lakers have on the floor next to them. Duhon, Hill, MWP, Jamison... You can't win championships with those guys all playing 25-35 minutes a night. Until Nash and Gasol come back healthy, the Lakers just don't have playoff-caliber talent on the floor. That being the case, I have no problem with Efficient Kobe shooting 30 times a game.
   186. robinred Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:16 AM (#4322675)
The Lakers are in fact 4-8 under MDA.

Hombre is right about the talent, and I said as much an hour ago on the Lakers blog where I now spend most of my NBA on-line mouth-off time.

Kobe jacked up a couple of dumb 3s late, trying to bring the team back, but he was 7/10 from the floor in the first half, hardly overshooting and hitting what he was taking, and the Lakers were down 54-39. The Lakers have no one who can create offense except him, no good ballhandlers, and they're slow as hell, so they get killed in transition and on TOs night after night. The other team always gets several easy baskets, and the Lakers get very few. It is hard to win that way, particularly when you have a coach who likes the pace MDA likes.

Where Kobe deserves sharp criticism, as I have said, and he got some on the Lakers' TH affiliate yesterday, is for his lazyass D. He is not alone on that on the Lakers, but he is a big part of the problem.

As to Howard, he is not the problem, either--Hombre is correct there. But I do think he is at present about 75% of what he used to be, due to the back. He seems to have a bit less mobility and explosiveness. No idea whether he will ever get it back.

There are many "chemistry" things going on--MDA seems inflexible; Howard is miserable and if this keeps up, he will walk. But it starts from talent. This team was based on the premise that Howard, Nash, Gasol, and Bryant would play 65-80 games apiece and would do so at their recent historical levels. Kupchak surrounded them with limited guys who are 10-20 MPG players, who can do 1 or 2 things, and the idea was they would fit around the core four, with MWP playing enough D to make him adequate at the 3 if he didn't have to score. There was room for disagreement about how well that would work, how likely it was those four guys could do the job that they have done historically, and how good such a team would be, but the whole thing was based on Bryant, Gasol, Nash and Howard adding up to 4, not 1.75.

Meanwhile, the Clippers have won seven straight.
   187. Morph Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:27 AM (#4322679)
Melo.
   188. Maxwn Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:35 AM (#4322684)
As to Howard, he is not the problem, either--Hombre is correct there. But I do think he is at present about 75% of what he used to be, due to the back. He seems to have a bit less mobility and explosiveness. No idea whether he will ever get it back.

FWIW, this is what I thought in the handful of times I've watched them this year. It's not accurate to say that he's bad, he's obviously still pretty damn good, but he doesn't look quite the same. To be fair though, one of the games I watched was when they played Memphis, and that looks to have been easily the worst game he's played all year.
   189. robinred Posted: December 12, 2012 at 03:33 AM (#4322700)
Also, to be clear, I don't think D'Antoni is a helpless victim in the Lakers' problems. To this point, my optimism about the hire has been very misguided. I expected him to make a few adjustments to adapt to the personnel; from what I have seen, he isn't really doing that. He is getting more out of Meeks and Jamison; SSOL is a good system for guys who can shoot a little even if they can't do much else. But overall, it isn't working, obviously. The Lakers are playing a 12th man and DLeaguer at the most important position in the MDA system. Add that to the other guys they are using, and you would need 1989 Jordan and 1972 Kareem at the 2 and the 5 to make it work.
   190. JC in DC Posted: December 12, 2012 at 10:42 AM (#4322813)
I don't want to exhaust you, Robin (or Hombre), with Laker talk, but isn't Magic kinda right about Gasol? I've always liked his game, he seems to be critically important to the Lakers as really (aside from Kobe) their only skilled offensive player, and a really good defender. How or why has he become the "problem" in all this? Why can't his game coexist with Howard's?
   191. NJ in DC (Now unemployed!) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4322846)
Just as a basketball fan I am enjoying Durant, Melo and LeBron's 3 point accuracy thus far. Also enjoying that LeBron has the REB/FG%/FT% numbers of a 4/5, the PPG of a high usage wing, the 3P% of a spot up shooter, and the AST/TO numbers of a PG. He has to have one of the all-time weird stat lines going right now.
   192. Paul D(uda) Posted: December 12, 2012 at 11:28 AM (#4322869)
I'm a casual NBA fan in Toronto. I'd like to ask the experts - is Toronto really this bad? They seem like they have some talent. I"m not saying they're good, but they're playing like the worst team in the NBA right now. I would accept anything in a trade for Bargnani.
   193. robinred Posted: December 12, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4322976)
I don't want to exhaust you, Robin (or Hombre), with Laker talk, but isn't Magic kinda right about Gasol? I've always liked his game, he seems to be critically important to the Lakers as really (aside from Kobe) their only skilled offensive player, and a really good defender. How or why has he become the "problem" in all this? Why can't his game coexist with Howard's?


Talking about them is less exhausting than watching them. Pau isn't really *the* problem; but he is a problem. His basic metrics were all way down prior to his sitting down to rest the knees:

PER: 15.0 (20.5)
TS%: .474 (.547)
WS/48: .101 (.165)

Part of that is age/mileage, part of it is how he is being used. Odom was the perfect complement for him, and the Triangle was the perfect system. So, combining the two factors, he looks really bad, and he takes a lot of excessive crap due to his personality/style. Mt. Magic's periodic LakEruptions are usually pretty lame, but like, you, I agreed with some of what he said there.

As to how to move forward with Pau, I would try using Howard up high, facing the hoop, more, and as everyone has said, I would split their time more. They are + 3.8 together, as per Pelton, which is much lower than Howard/Jamison, or Hill/Pau.

As to the Lakers in general, there are two fixes at the margins they can try:

1. As is now being rumored, pick up Delonte West. He is better than Blake, Duhon, or Morris, and assuming that he is in game shape, they should put him on the floor. They are 9-13 and cannot afford to worry about West's baggage.
2. Get rid of Ebanks or Clark and try to find a DLeaguer with a little athletic ability to backup MWP whom MDA will play 15 MPG. There are usually guys like that in the DLeague, and if nothing else, it would get a young guy on the floor who would hustle. Or, since MDA is playing Kobe a shitton of minutes anyway, he could do the same thing Phil did with Shannon Brown--basically make Kobe the backup 3, and play Meeks 25-28 minutes a game.

MDA also needs to do something tactical to try to improve floor balance and TOs, if he can, other than just saying "Wait until Steve comes back." I would integrate more Princeton sets (E.Jordan is still on the staff) than he has been, and tell guys to get back and worry less about the Oglass. Pelton pointed out that Hill/Howard lineups are getting crushed in transition in part since those guys are both very active on the OGlass.

None of that will matter unless is Nash

a) Back pretty soon
b) Nash
and Pau is closer to what he was last year when he comes back, but the Lakers need to play out the hand.

Finally, while I am not into chemistry/team dynamics arguments, there is a need for:

1. MDA to look in the mirror. The Knicks are 34-11 since he left and the Lakers are 4-8 since he came.
2. Kobe to look in the mirror about his D.
3. Howard to look in the mirror about his attitude. ISTM that he doesn't really want to be here.
4. Kupchak and Buss to re-evaluate how they are choosing bench players.
   194. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4323047)
Howard is miserable and if this keeps up, he will walk.

My immediate gut reaction wants to call BS on him walking. We're talking the Lakers here, who's the last all-star to walk away from them? But Howard really does seem like the guy who just might do that, and immediately regret it. Obviously there's the added year/money, but also the prestige. However, if this year doesn't straighten out, not only might he want to leave but the team might not want him back. Of course, I highly doubt things don't get fixed (whatever that means; they probably aren't winning the title though). My question now though is, would the Lakers risk letting him walk? Or if they're still floundering/under .500 come the trade deadline, would they consider trading him?

Meanwhile, the Clippers have won seven straight.

Lots of Vinny snark on Bulls twitter feeds last night, but that team looks better than I would have ever imagined a Vinny team looking. A lot of that is Paul, but Hubie pointed out a lot of good things that the Clips were doing in their offence to react to the Bulls defense. Both Noah and Deng played 40+ mins again, and both are starting to show fatigue. Thibs is killing them. Bulls play at Philly tonight. If Deng or Noah have anything left, I'll be shocked.

I'm a casual NBA fan in Toronto. I'd like to ask the experts - is Toronto really this bad? They seem like they have some talent. I"m not saying they're good, but they're playing like the worst team in the NBA right now. I would accept anything in a trade for Bargnani.

Sorry, I don't see a whole lot of talent. I like Lowery, and that's about it (haven't seen enough of Valanciunas to have an opinion one way or another). Anyone checked in on WOW to see how they feel about their prediction for the Raps?
   195. andrewberg Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4323063)
I'm a casual NBA fan in Toronto. I'd like to ask the experts - is Toronto really this bad? They seem like they have some talent. I"m not saying they're good, but they're playing like the worst team in the NBA right now. I would accept anything in a trade for Bargnani.


Lowry is really good and I think Valanciunas can eventually become good. I think part of the problem is that they are playing at a slight disadvantage at every other position all the time, especially on defense. Derozan, Ross, Pietrus, Kleiza, and Calderon have trouble staying in front of anyone ever (and offensively, none of those guys are good at getting easy points, only long twos). They do not have strong defensive bigs who can help them if they fail. In fact, Bargnani is the exact opposite. Davis and Johnson might be something, but neither plays enough to tell if they are better than limited bench guys.
   196. Jimmy P Posted: December 12, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4323066)
I'm a casual NBA fan in Toronto. I'd like to ask the experts - is Toronto really this bad? They seem like they have some talent. I"m not saying they're good, but they're playing like the worst team in the NBA right now. I would accept anything in a trade for Bargnani.

Agree with Moses. They've got two potential All-Star caliber players (Lowry, Valunciunus) and a few role players. Unfortunately, some of the guys have completely mailed it in, and some are just meh good. They'll make some trades, but I just don't know what they're going to get.

   197. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4323101)
1. MDA to look in the mirror. The Knicks are 34-11 since he left and the Lakers are 4-8 since he came.
I agree, but only to a certain degree. I wasn't a fan of the hire — RR can attest to that. When you hire D'Antoni, you know what system you've agreed to buy into, so if there are fingers to be pointed, they need to be pointed at Jim Buss for hiring D'Antoni given the talent on the roster and the limited flexibility of the roster given the salary cap challenges. Of the projected best starting 5, only one of those guys is a truly excellent 3-point shooter, and the only young starter is coming off back surgery. Anyone who thought the Lakers would suddenly right themselves by casting off Brown was dreaming.

2. Kobe to look in the mirror about his D.
3. Howard to look in the mirror about his attitude. ISTM that he doesn't really want to be here.
Kobe's like every other Laker perimeter defender right now: He's not playing a lick of defense, and I think the stop he got against Irving in crunch time was the first time he's even tried this season. Howard's defense, when he's playing it, is as spectacular as advertised. He's simply a beast in the lane, but you can see him visibly wear down over the course of games, and especially on the back end of a back-to-back. His attitude, on the other hand... not great. I can see how maddening having him on your team can be, what with his it's-all-good attitude.

I get the feeling the team is in a holding pattern psychologically, waiting for Nash and Gasol to get back before really trying to get down to business. (They're 40% of the starting lineup, after all.) Nobody — not the coaches, not the players — is looking to really change the dynamic of the team's chemistry because it's just going to change soon. It's just all bad right now.

As for Pau... We've talked a lot in the past about how wonderfully skilled and well-rounded his game is, but he does have weaknesses. He's not a great shooter outside of 15 feet and he's not fast up and down the court, and D'Antoni's system exposes and features those weaknesses. Spending less time with D12 would help, but he's most effective in half-court sets, and I'm pessimistic that D'Antoni's going to be able to figure something out for him that fits in the flow of his system. It's probably best the Lakers trade him for someone who's a better fit, and that's a thought that makes me sad. Also, I'm not that's even possible at this point. I have no idea who they could get that'd jive with his salary besides Alfonso Soriano.

As to the Lakers in general, there are two fixes at the margins they can try:
Agree with both 100%.
   198. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4323109)
who's ready for bulls-sixers tonight??? first to score 70 wins!!! WOOOOO!!!!
   199. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4323113)
Lots of Vinny snark on Bulls twitter feeds last night, but that team looks better than I would have ever imagined a Vinny team looking. A lot of that is Paul, but Hubie pointed out a lot of good things that the Clips were doing in their offence to react to the Bulls defense.
A good floor general will do that for you, and the Clippers now have two in Paul and Billups.

The Clips are so deep, it's crazy. Their second 5 consists of:
PG Bledsoe
SG Green (who starts, but doesn't finish)
SF Barnes
PF Turiaf/Odom
C Turiaf/Hollins

They only need Turiaf and Green for 15 minutes, and they're getting tons out of Barnes and Bledsoe. When teams start subbing at the end of the 1st quarter, a gap really opens up between Clipper's talent level and that of their opponent's. When Bledsoe, Barnes and Crawford get subbed in after 8 minutes or so, the Clips lose nothing. How many teams can say that about their bench? The Clips go deep.
   200. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 12, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4323117)
who's ready for bulls-sixers tonight??? first to score 70 wins!!! WOOOOO!!!!

What's the o/u? Has anyone ever bet on the uberunder?
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