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Friday, October 05, 2018

OT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom knew the old thread would get closed, thus detracting from what this site is really about: the baseball playoffs, maybe?

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 05, 2018 at 03:43 PM | 6856 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1001. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5774238)
In loving memory of Flip Saunders
   1002. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5774241)
Fun fact: Harry Giles and Ben McLemore, also IIIs.


This blows my mind.
   1003. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5774264)
I apologize for asking the question and not doing the legwork, but who is better these days, the all-NBA III team or the all-NBA Jr. team? (Also is anyone but Marcus Morris on the Sr. team?)
   1004. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5774275)
Also is anyone but Marcus Morris on the Sr. team?


Lebron is a notable Sr.
   1005. JC in DC Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5774296)
David Stern hating on Dell Demps.
   1006. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5774300)
Coach Mike Dunleavy, also a Senior.

So the III's would basically be the Kings + Glenn Robinson III + Rozier?

I'm sure there are tons of juniors, the first ones that come to mind are:
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Larry Nance Jr.
   1007. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5774301)
David Stern hating on Dell Demps.

I thought that was hilarious.
   1008. JC in DC Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5774304)
Tim Hardaway Jr

Patrick Ewing, Sr

John Thompson, Jr, Coach
John Thompson, III Coach
   1009. JC in DC Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5774308)
[1007] I guess so, but ... he's right there! He's still in the room!
   1010. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5774309)
Ah, I should've been more specific. I assume a healthy percentage of the non-Jr/III players in the NBA are Srs, but has anyone beyond Morris felt the need to put it on their jersey? (I guess I'm sort of moving the goalposts here...)
   1011. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5774310)
[1007] I guess so, but ... he's right there! He's still in the room!

That's what made it hilarious!
   1012. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5774312)
Also, a cursory search on nba.com shows that James Ennis is a III, to join the Kings/Rozier/Robinson/Robert Williams.
   1013. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5774317)
Current players with Jr. in their nba.com official names:
Troy Brown Jr
Wendell Carter Jr
Melvin Frazier Jr
Tim Hardaway Jr
Jaren Jackson Jr
Derrick Jones Jr
Larry Nance Jr
Kelly Oubre Jr
Michael Porter Jr
Otto Porter Jr
Dennis Smith Jr
Gary Trent Jr

False Jrs:
Salah Mejri
Jrue Holiday

Jury out:
JR Smith, who does not claim Jr-dom but is presumably JR because his father is also Earl.
   1014. jmurph Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5774318)
Not a one of these names is as good as the greatest sports Junior of all time, Bossman Junior.
   1015. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5774319)
Kaminsky is a III.
   1016. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: October 24, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5774320)
JR Smith, who does not claim Jr-dom but is presumably JR because his father is also Earl.

PLOT TWIST! He's Earl Smith...III!!!!
   1017. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 24, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5774343)
Not basketball but Orel Hershiser is Orel Leonard Hershiser IV (I mean how else do you come by a name like ‘Orel’ really?) and he did name his son Orel V. V must be 35 by now, not sure if there’s a VI yet.
   1018. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 24, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5774376)
I was just looking at the box score of Kobe's 81 point game (as one does), the Raptors leading scorer in that game was Mike James, who played 79 games that season and averaged 20.2 points per game that seasong. He's got to be the least likely 20-ppg scorer in recent memory, right?
   1019. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 24, 2018 at 05:27 PM (#5774395)
False Jrs:
Jrue Holiday
I want Jrue Holiday's son to be named IIIue Holiday.
   1020. GregD Posted: October 24, 2018 at 05:45 PM (#5774405)
I was just looking at the box score of Kobe's 81 point game (as one does), the Raptors leading scorer in that game was Mike James, who played 79 games that season and averaged 20.2 points per game that seasong. He's got to be the least likely 20-ppg scorer in recent memory, right?
Looking at the list I can't even get a good answer for who would be second. Some of the 20 pt scorers were meh players but most of them at least were notorious
   1021. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5774411)
And of course that season earned James a big free agent payday from the McHale Timberwolves.
   1022. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:03 PM (#5774415)
I was just looking at the box score of Kobe's 81 point game (as one does)
I've lost count of the number of times I've rewatched that game.
   1023. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:07 PM (#5774418)
Here are some other weird 20 PPG seasons
Cuttino Mobley
Ricky Davis (none of the points were scored on his own basket, either)
Mike Bibby
Al Harrington
Devin Harris
Andrea Bargnani

Looking back at these lists, it is weird to see certain names of guys who were near the top of the scoring leaderboards year after year and then just disappeared (Redd, Granger, Monta Ellis).
   1024. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:20 PM (#5774424)
that’s not just any real estate that Embiid owns in Drummond’s head. It’s a sprawling lake house that he poured years of work and thoughtful planning into. And it’s hardly the only property Embiid owns. Embiid very publicly gets into the minds of many players in the league, talking #### on and off the court and festering ill will on social media. He’s a mastermind’s mastermind, and in the NBA, that’s usually good for drawing a technical. Exactly how much mental real estate does Embiid, a 24-year-old with 98 regular-season NBA games to his name, actually own? Let’s go through his various properties:

...In July, ESPN wondered whether there would be “fireworks” when they played each other at this summer’s NBA Africa Game, an exhibition game played for charity.

...Towns doesn’t love a double entendre. He made the mistake of engaging and commented “That caption was as trash as your photo quality.”... “Better quality than your defense,” Embiid replied.

...Ayton drew himself dunking on Embiid for his rookie card, prompting this response from Embiid: "I love when KIDS dream BIG"

...Much of what Embiid does is uncalled for in any scenario, but the city of Milwaukee really did nothing before Embiid posted an Instagram picture in Milwaukee with the location tagged “Shithole.”

link
   1025. JJ1986 Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:22 PM (#5774427)
Jrue Holiday's daughter is named Jrue, which I think technically does not make him a senior.
   1026. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5774429)
It's funny, for a guy who loves the NBA and WoSo I always forget he's married to one of the best USWNT players of her generation. I wonder if Jrue Holiday the younger will end up as more of a soccer or basketball player.
   1027. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 24, 2018 at 06:34 PM (#5774431)
Ricky Pierce had three 20PPG seasons in a row. I swear I was alive in the mid-90s and did not recognize the name "Ricky Pierce". I see he won two Sixth Man Of The Year awards.
   1028. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 24, 2018 at 07:05 PM (#5774444)
I want to say that Pierce played for the Sonica? And maybe a season in Milwaukee?
   1029. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 24, 2018 at 07:17 PM (#5774451)
...Much of what Embiid does is uncalled for in any scenario, but the city of Milwaukee really did nothing before Embiid posted an Instagram picture in Milwaukee with the location tagged “Shithole.”


I like Embiid but it feels like he's jumped the shark on his trolling this year. Just play for a minute dude. And stay healthy for more than most of one year.

Ricky Pierce had three 20PPG seasons in a row. I swear I was alive in the mid-90s and did not recognize the name "Ricky Pierce". I see he won two Sixth Man Of The Year awards.


Ricky Pierce isn't some character from Hoop Dreams and is an actual NBA player? In the 90s? What?
   1030. aberg Posted: October 24, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5774453)
Did this Darius Miles story get posted yet? It's pure gold.
   1031. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 24, 2018 at 07:37 PM (#5774456)
I love the Players Tribune, thanks for the link:

we played against Houston, and Moe Taylor had just left the Clippers to go there in the offseason, and this man is looking like he just escaped from a kidnapping or something. He drops like a 30-clip on us, and after every bucket, he’s running past Donald Sterling’s seat, grabbing his damn nuts.

We’re like, Bruh. This is not normal.

That’s when we knew: Something is going on here.

Editor’s note: People ask us about Sterling all the time, looking for crazy stories. But honestly, he wasn’t really around like that. Every once in a while, he would pop into the locker room outta nowhere with all his old-ass friends wearing mink coats and ####. We’d be buck-naked, changing, and he’d say wild-ass stuff, like, “Look at these boys! Look at my beautiful boys!” And we’d just be shooting each other looks like, “Yo! Duh fuuuuuuuuck?”


Yikes.
   1032. puck Posted: October 24, 2018 at 08:19 PM (#5774488)
That Darius Miles piece is great. I'm glad he and Richardson are still close.

These pieces are really good at what they are supposed to do, I suppose. Help us see those guys as actual humans. Which sounds ridiculous but it's so easy for them to be caricatures to us.
   1033. Moeball Posted: October 24, 2018 at 08:29 PM (#5774497)
Ok, this is from Saturday's Orlando-Philadelphia game won by Sixers 116-115: Here's the +/- numbers: Orlando starters Gordon +12, Isaac +9, Vucevic +12, August in +23, Fournier +19. Philly starters just the opposite, of course. Embiid was -8, Simmons was -12 in only 8 minutes. average Orlando starter +15 in a game they lost. Obviously this means the benches were just the opposite of this. 2 Orlando bench players were more than -20, and Grant was -19 in only 7 minutes! How is this even possible? So I'm guessing this game was a total fluke indicating Orlando had much better starters than Philly but that Orlando's bench is the worst ever! Just looked like a really weird box score and not what I would expect.
   1034. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: October 24, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5774499)
[1032] Yep. The site got a ton of #### when it launched, but it has been a great addition to the discourse.
   1035. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 24, 2018 at 08:46 PM (#5774523)
I am not in a position to find and post it, but Kawhi had a no look steal tonight that is one of the most amazing defensive plays I have ever seen.
   1036. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 24, 2018 at 08:54 PM (#5774539)
Pierce was a guy I thought of when I rambled about Hield.
   1037. Harlond Posted: October 24, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5774591)
I assume a healthy percentage of the non-Jr/III players in the NBA are Srs
I could be wrong about this, but as a Jr myself, I don't think any of the Srs should have that attached to their names. Juniors are named that at birth, but nobody is named John Doe Sr. at birth, they're just John Doe. I understand people using it in conversation to distinguish, say, Ken Griffey Jr from Ken Griffey, but it's not part of Ken Griffey's name.

Probably just an irrational pet peeve on my part.
   1038. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 24, 2018 at 09:44 PM (#5774619)
Okay, here is the Kawhi no-look steal I mentioned in [1035]. I highly recommend you watch it.
   1039. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 24, 2018 at 10:31 PM (#5774709)
So guys, as it happens, Kawhi Leonard is good at basketball.
   1040. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: October 24, 2018 at 10:33 PM (#5774710)
Finally a great game from Donovan. I was getting a bit worried that he wasn't getting almost any good looks at the basket this season (and got blocked by Eric Gordon on his first drive today), but whatever work he's put in paid off and he put up 38 on 25 shots tonight.

The Jazz lucked out to face the Rockets without Paul, but their defense also just does not look the same this year.
   1041. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: October 24, 2018 at 10:42 PM (#5774726)
I mean, me and Q, we were used to it. It was nothing. We grew up in that environment.

But you know, we had Eric Piatkowski coming from South Dakota, and he was just like, “Yoooooooo, what the hell is going on? Get me outta here.”
We were so young that we couldn’t really go to the clubs, so we used drive around L.A. going to high school basketball games. We always used to go to Westchester High games because they had the prettiest girls.

Editor’s note: Yo! I was trying to go to the club. But D used to drag me to these games on his young-boy ####, and he would literally have these high school girls thinking they were about to go to prom with a Clipper.
Paul Pierce came up to me after our second year in the league. Now, Paul is a real dude. He’s from Inglewood. He was like, “Man, lemme tell you something. I don’t got nobody’s jersey in the league. I don’t get down like that. But I got your jersey. I like you guys.”
I thought the streets loved me. That was my curse.

The streets don’t love you like that. The streets don’t love nobody.
Listen, it takes a long time to go broke buying Ferraris. What makes you go broke are shady business deals.

They’ll make the money disappear quick.
I was stuck in my momma’s house in East St. Louis for like three years. I worked my whole life to get out of there, and I was back. Just … trapped. Carrying my gun with me everywhere. Couldn’t sleep. Couldn’t escape my own head. Couldn’t find any peace.

Then one night, I just had enough.

I called up Q.
So, What the hell happened to Darius Miles? Man, a lot. A lot happened to Darius Miles.

But it’s 2018 now — and I’ll tell you one thing.

He alright.
   1042. Tin Angel Posted: October 24, 2018 at 11:39 PM (#5774789)
The Wizards defense is...not great.
   1043. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 24, 2018 at 11:47 PM (#5774792)
I looked into it a touch, and Marcus Morris is indeed the only player in the league with a Sr tagged onto his name on his jersey. I was inclined to agree with you, Harlond, that it's a bit silly as a move, but this quote I ran into from the man himself softened my position a bit:
“My son’s a junior, and it made me want to put a senior on the back of my jersey,” he said this week. “It’s my first child — just reflecting back on my childhood, I never had a father. In that sense it meant a lot to me."

Above all for the native of North Philadelphia, Morris takes comfort from the notion that his son won’t have to re-live some of his own rough-and-tumble experiences.

“In the sense of things like education, a good school system,” Morris said. “But I don’t want to take away from his childhood, and having to grow up being tough and things like that. Not having to go through some of the things I had to struggle with.

“Things like walking to school and having to have your head on a swivel. Being bullied. I never was bullied, but going to school and you always have to protect yourself,” he said. “I think it defines kids. The way I am now it’s like, I’m always alert. That extends from my childhood. When I go to sleep I’m never fully asleep — one tap and I’m up. All that stems from not being comfortable, because so much (expletive) happens. People are killed from being in the wrong spot, things like that. You don’t want those same things for your children. I went through it, that made me who I am, and it put me in the situation now where I can provide for him.”

In general I agree that naming your kid after yourself isn't a thing that needs to be part of your name, but I don't mind where Morris is coming from with this.
   1044. PJ Martinez Posted: October 24, 2018 at 11:53 PM (#5774794)
I feel like that Kawhi play is Exhibit A in his MVP campaign.
   1045. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 12:15 AM (#5774799)
Guys, I think the Suns might not be that good.
   1046. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 12:17 AM (#5774800)
The Wizards defense is...not great.


It's a bit hard to defend Curry when he's shooting from the hash mark and hitting 10/12 from 3.
   1047. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: October 25, 2018 at 02:39 AM (#5774812)
Let me try to break it down for you. I don’t think people really understand how crazy it is to go from high school to the NBA. And not just to the NBA, but to the damn Los Angeles Clippers.

Pre-social media.

If Twitter had existed back then, it would’ve been a wrap.

Editor’s note: A wrap.

We used to have Alvin Gentry losing his damn mind. We literally showed up for Day One of training camp with Super Soakers.

Editor’s note: Big dumb-ass Super Soakers with the shoulder strap and everything.
   1048. Booey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5774865)
I was just looking at the box score of Kobe's 81 point game (as one does), the Raptors leading scorer in that game was Mike James, who played 79 games that season and averaged 20.2 points per game that seasong. He's got to be the least likely 20-ppg scorer in recent memory, right?


Not sure how far back is still considered "recent", but Antoine Carr was always one that stuck out to me from my early days of fandom. Averaged 20 pts in 1991 and never more than 13 in any other season of his 16 year career.

Here are some other weird 20 PPG seasons
Cuttino Mobley
Ricky Davis (none of the points were scored on his own basket, either)
Mike Bibby
Al Harrington
Devin Harris
Andrea Bargnani


Most of these don't seem that unlikely, at least compared to James and Carr. Here are their next top seasons:

Mobley - 19.5, 17.5, 17.2, 15.8, 15.8
Davis - 19.4, 17.0 16.0
Bibby - 19.6, 18.4, 17.1, 15.9, 15.9
Harrington - 18.6, 17.7, 17.5, 16.5
Harris - 16.9, 15.2
Bargnani - 19.5, 17.2, 15.4

All except maybe Harris just look more like career years than fluke seasons.
   1049. spivey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:33 AM (#5774866)
Giannis finally has a squad and a coach! I'm excited I splurged for the flex pass, and the Monday game next week hosting the Raptors should be fun - pretty reasonable chance both teams are undefeated going into that game. Giannis had 32/18/10 last night as Milwaukee rather easily disposed of Philly after falling behind early.
   1050. spivey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:35 AM (#5774870)
Mike Bibby doesn't belong on that list, he was a great player.

The rest of the guys were mostly no-defense gunners back when the league didn't value efficiency. Man, the NBA has come a long way even in the last 15 years.
   1051. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:45 AM (#5774877)
That was a fun game last night. Rose getting big minutes made it even harder to root for the Twolves, so I just stuck to cheering for awesome plays.
   1052. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:46 AM (#5774881)
Fun to see Giannis aside the boxout king - Lopez had one rebound last night.
   1053. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:56 AM (#5774941)
markelle fultz 3PA tracker: 5 games, 6 attempts
   1054. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5774990)
I was thinking about going to the Warriors at Knicks game tomorrow depending on cost and then I remembered how obnoxious the Knicks fans are going to be prostrating themselves before KD. I might still go if my friend wants to go, but eh...maybe I should just try to get Warriors-Nets tix instead.

81 points on 43 shots for Curry/Durant last night. It was a fun game--both teams were sharp on offense and Beal put on a show in the 3rd quarter. Must have been frustrating for him that no one cares.
   1055. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5775003)
It's pretty funny for David Stern to throw Dell Demps under the bus now that the Pelicans look really good. I do not miss David Stern at all.
   1056. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 25, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5775022)
Giannis stat that puts him in good company But that wasn't all Antetokounmpo did. The league's leading rebounder, he battled inside for 18 more boards. In doing so, he became the first player since Wilt Chamberlain in 1965-'66 to record four consecutive 25-point, 15-rebound games to open the season, according to ESPN Stats & Info.
   1057. jmurph Posted: October 25, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5775076)
Fun with single-game plus/minus:

Last night, in 32 minutes, Redick was a +5. The Sixers lost by 15.
   1058. aberg Posted: October 25, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5775145)
The Raptors are really good. They're balanced, deep, and can attack in different ways. The Wolves played pretty well to even stick around with them. Okogie is probably better than Wiggins right now.
   1059. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: October 25, 2018 at 01:30 PM (#5775150)
Yes, people talking up Toronto and Milwaukee have been on the mark so far.
   1060. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 25, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5775200)
The Raps didn't have Vanvleet around last night, and still pulled away pretty easy.

I'm very curious to see how the Lakers do tonight. They've been piling up points, if not wins, even though they've been terrible from 3-point range. The Nugs have been really good defensively BY keeping teams from shooting well from 3-point range. I also wanna see how Ball does. His shooting has been vastly improved, he looks eager to jack it up from range, and his passing's as good as ever, but his plus/minus and on/off numbers are awful. Small samples and all that, so these games without Rondo mucking up his playing time gives us a better look at what he is right now.
   1061. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 02:40 PM (#5775222)
The Nugs have been really good defensively BY keeping teams from shooting well from 3-point range.

As Zach Lowe points out, they are giving up more corner 3's than anyone in the league so they may just be getting lucky. I'm not sold on their defense even though they held the Warriors to 98 points. Steph, KD and Klay were just bricking open looks that night.
   1062. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 25, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5775242)
1059--What's interesting about the Bucks is that after each game like all the players mention that coach keeps telling them to shoot the ball from 3. And during games you can see him screaming shoot the ball when a guy looks to be open from 3. And on defense they are not completely disorganized most possessions. If that is all it took to turn the Bucks into a legit conference contender Jason Kidd was a great player but one ####### terrible coach.
   1063. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5775251)
The Mark Jackson parallels are uncanny, even down to losing a 7 game series in the first round they very well could have won against a favored opponent (though I realize Kidd was already gone by the playoffs).
   1064. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:12 PM (#5775257)
1059--What's interesting about the Bucks is that after each game like all the players mention that coach keeps telling them to shoot the ball from 3. And during games you can see him screaming shoot the ball when a guy looks to be open from 3. And on defense they are not completely disorganized most possessions. If that is all it took to turn the Bucks into a legit conference contender Jason Kidd was a great player but one ####### terrible coach.

other descriptions for jason kidd:
wife beating shitbag.
drunk driving shitbag.
cheating shitbag.
backstabbing shitbag.


and yes, the general consensus in this thread is also that he's a ####### terrible coach.
   1065. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5775261)
other descriptions for jason kidd:

I have a FOAF who was his tutor at Cal, and she claimed that he left school as innocent of the ability to read as he had entered it. I find this story credible, because I want to.
   1066. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5775266)
True, another uncanny similarity is that Jackson and Kidd are both asholes and both thought their star players had invested some kind of cult-like loyalty in them.
   1067. spivey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5775272)
Kidd's replacement didn't really do any better than him. Now, they ran the same chicken-with-their-head cut off defensive "scheme" then.

I think Bud's made a big difference, but the team is a lot deeper and has way more 3 point shooting than they did last year. Lopez and Ersan are just average-ish NBA players, but they're replacing minutes from Snell and Maker that are replacement player or worse. Maker hasn't played a game yet. Maker still has some real talent... he seems like a guy that'd be well served to play a season in the G League to become more assertive offensively, defensively, and reboundly.
   1068. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5775278)
Harden is doubtful for tomorrow so the Rockets might be staring at 1-4.

I think Bud's made a big difference, but the team is a lot deeper and has way more 3 point shooting than they did last year.

Yeah, but the reason they have more shooters is because Bud wanted them. I think he gets credit for bringing those guys onboard.
   1069. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5775285)
Khris Middleton is a much better/more versatile scorer than I imagined. That's been the most striking thing about watching the Bucks for me.
   1070. aberg Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5775287)
Khris Middleton is a much better/more versatile scorer than I imagined. That's been the most striking thing about watching the Bucks for me.


He's one of those players who seemed to have hit a very respectable peak, and then just kept getting better.
   1071. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5775289)
Khris Middleton is a much better/more versatile scorer than I imagined. That's been the most striking thing about watching the Bucks for me.
that shouldn't be that surprising. he scored 20 PPG last year on 47/36/88 shooting. 58% TS% on 25% usage is really good.
   1072. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5775299)
that shouldn't be that surprising. he scored 20 PPG last year on 47/36/88 shooting. 58% TS% on 25% usage is really good.

I'm aware. I'm moreso talking about the fact that in last year's playoffs he managed to increase his usage and efficiency while decreasing the amount of baskets he was assisted on and is continuing to do so this year. While the sample size is small, it has impressed me.
   1073. The Good Face Posted: October 25, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5775304)
I think Bud's made a big difference, but the team is a lot deeper and has way more 3 point shooting than they did last year. Lopez and Ersan are just average-ish NBA players, but they're replacing minutes from Snell and Maker that are replacement player or worse.


I think BroLo is a bit underrated in that while he's average-ish, he's valuable from a roster construction standpoint. He can defend opposing bigs, shoots well enough to not kill your spacing, and offers some rim protection. A guy like that is versatile and can fit into most lineups, play alongside most stars and complement their game. He's not some tricky piece that you have to move players around to fit him in; he's plug and play.
   1074. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 25, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5775313)
agreed, tgf.
   1075. Davo Posted: October 25, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5775314)
I have to confess, I am way way way more interested in the NBA than the World Series. I’m sorry!

The Lakers and Nuggets are gonna score a zillion points tonight. It’s gonna be awesome.
   1076. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 25, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5775326)
(whispers)
Baseball is a regular season sport.
   1077. spivey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5775328)
I think BroLo is a bit underrated in that while he's average-ish, he's valuable from a roster construction standpoint. He can defend opposing bigs, shoots well enough to not kill your spacing, and offers some rim protection. A guy like that is versatile and can fit into most lineups, play alongside most stars and complement their game. He's not some tricky piece that you have to move players around to fit him in; he's plug and play.


I think this is pretty true of Ersan too. Both rebound their position well and space the floor, and don't embarrass you on defense.
   1078. Tin Angel Posted: October 25, 2018 at 06:52 PM (#5775410)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn

Story posting soon: The Houston Rockets are making a renewed bid to acquire Minnesota All-Star Jimmy Butler, including four future first-round draft picks in their most recent trade offer, league sources tell ESPN.

   1079. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 25, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5775412)
[1078] Justise Winslow for Jimmy Butler, who says no?
   1080. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 25, 2018 at 07:22 PM (#5775430)
That's a lot of picks / flags fly forever
   1081. JC in DC Posted: October 25, 2018 at 07:32 PM (#5775439)
[1079] David Stern.
   1082. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 08:15 PM (#5775455)
We've gone back and forth once or twice on this thread about whether the Celtics could be doing anything different to keep them in the top-five of opponent three-point percentage for eleven years running, or if it was just a striking bit of luck. Here's a case, made with reporting as well as video, that Thibodeau instituted a different approach than most teams use, and that Stevens, starting at Butler and continuing in Boston, amplified the Thibodeau approach. The argument doesn't seem totally comprehensive (I'm curious, e.g., how Thibodeau's non-Boston teams have done, and, if not as well as the Celtics, then why), but it at least advances a plausible theory. (For what it's worth, Lowe said before this season that he thought Boston had to be doing something, though he wasn't sure what it was.)

Obviously, even if the the theory is correct, it won't matter this season if the team can't figure out how to score more efficiently.
   1083. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 08:40 PM (#5775460)
(And by "score more efficiently" I mean hit any kind of basket whatsoever.)
   1084. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5775468)
Giving up picks in 2023 and 2025 is Billy King-esque.
   1085. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:03 PM (#5775470)
We've gone back and forth once or twice on this thread about whether the Celtics could be doing anything different to keep them in the top-five of opponent three-point percentage for eleven years running, or if it was just a striking bit of luck. Here's a case, made with reporting as well as video, that Thibodeau instituted a different approach than most teams use, and that Stevens, starting at Butler and continuing in Boston, amplified the Thibodeau approach. The argument doesn't seem totally comprehensive (I'm curious, e.g., how Thibodeau's non-Boston teams have done, and, if not as well as the Celtics, then why), but it at least advances a plausible theory. (For what it's worth, Lowe said before this season that he thought Boston had to be doing something, though he wasn't sure what it was.)


Okay, so what are the Celtics doing differently on open shots?

Edit: to add more than snark, the last three years, here's how the Celtics' opponents have shot on open attempts:

2018: 36% (best in league)
2017: 34% (best in league)
2016: 36.2% (5th best in league)

Further, they've only been 8 to 10th best at preventing wide open 3s. So any explanation of the Celtics 3p defense needs to explain how they force their opponents into missing wide open shots.
   1086. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:21 PM (#5775479)
I think Bud's made a big difference, but the team is a lot deeper and has way more 3 point shooting than they did last year.


Sorry for the string of posts:

When looking at the Bucks, the improvement largely hasn't come at the offensive end. It's come on defense. The Bucks went from 29th in Defensive Rebounding to 2nd. That's pretty much the entire difference in the team. Der-K mentioned BroLo, but he's mostly replacing Henson (who was already a good rebounder). The big difference has come with replacing Tony Snell in the starting lineup with Brogdon. Brogdon has been a huge positive influence on rebounding (by on/off).

   1087. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5775480)
This Celtics offense is not exactly Mai Tais and Yahtzee.
   1088. jmurph Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:28 PM (#5775481)
I personally think it's an admirable display of civic spirit for the Celtics to refuse to start playing until the World Series is over. Praise worthy, even.
   1089. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5775483)
I would in fact say that it is about the opposite of Mai Tais and Yahtzee at present.

(I believe my guess at the explanation for why the Celtics do so well on open shots was that, given the team's defensive discipline and dedication to closing out shots under Stevens [the article posted breaks it down well], the open threes they give up are to bad shooters who they don't care to close out. I don't know that you can get at the stats to interrogate that one or I'd try to, and I'm not really chomping at the bit to rehash this argument, but I continue to not find the open three percentage they give up as any sort of proof that it's luck, not scheme.)
   1090. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:36 PM (#5775485)
(I believe my guess at the explanation for why the Celtics do so well on open shots was that, given the team's defensive discipline and dedication to closing out shots under Stevens [the article posted breaks it down well], the open threes they give up are to bad shooters who they don't care to close out. I don't know that you can get at the stats to interrogate that one or I'd try to, and I'm not really chomping at the bit to rehash this argument, but I continue to not find the open three percentage they give up as any sort of proof that it's luck, not scheme.)


Okay, so if it's not luck, why do they get worse in the playoffs every year?
   1091. Booey Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5775488)
Okay, so if it's not luck, why do they get worse in the playoffs every year?


Cuz they're playing better teams with more good shooters?
   1092. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:44 PM (#5775489)
Better teams and shorter rotations mean fewer non-shooters, and stars carry higher usage in the playoffs, I'd imagine. How many years in a row would they have to do it for you to consider it meaningful?

Edit: coke to Booey
   1093. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 25, 2018 at 09:53 PM (#5775492)
Lopez and rebounding: I mentioned him to point out why Giannis had so many, not the team total (which Lopez certainly did not contribute to in the most direct form - he had only one!)
   1094. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:10 PM (#5775495)
Lopez and rebounding: I mentioned him to point out why Giannis had so many, not the team total (which Lopez certainly did not contribute to in the most direct form - he had only one!)


Yeah, sorry that was a bit garbled. I was mostly trying to point out that the improvement isn't really a result of new players, but benching Tony Snell.

Better teams and shorter rotations mean fewer non-shooters, and stars carry higher usage in the playoffs, I'd imagine. How many years in a row would they have to do it for you to consider it meaningful?


I honestly don't know--someone would have to do a distribution thingy to differentiate from random chance. I'm pretty sure the p value is not .1 yet.

***

I think the explanation that the Celtics are somehow doing something different is really hard to square in the NBA.

We've seen what happens when teams adopt novel strategies that are successful--they get copied. You might have noticed that teams are playing small a ton and shooting a lot more three pointers. Teams are switching more on defense, and before that were using ICE. The NBA is very, very good at playing copy-cat.

So the argument for Boston having some special skill at this is that they found a novel strategy (plausible!), have continued using that strategy despite a lot of different personnel and coaching staffs (plausible, but less so!), but have not seen other teams copy that strategy (difficult to believe!), even the teams coached by their former coaches (very difficult to believe!).

The simpler explanation, which I will believe until it is conclusively disproven, is that the Celtics are simply a good defense that has gotten lucky.
   1095. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5775499)
So the argument for Boston having some special skill at this is that they found a novel strategy (plausible!), have continued using that strategy despite a lot of different personnel and coaching staffs (plausible, but less so!), but have not seen other teams copy that strategy (difficult to believe!), even the teams coached by their former coaches (very difficult to believe!).

The piece linked above makes that argument by quoting scouts and coaches and using video clips as well as stats from both Stevens's last few years in Butler and Boston going back to 2008. It absolutely could be wrong, and the points you make are totally reasonable, but an abstract "it probably isn't true" is not a very interesting rebuttal to that kind of detail.
   1096. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:33 PM (#5775501)
The piece linked above makes that argument by quoting scouts and coaches and using video clips as well as stats from both Stevens's last few years in Butler and Boston going back to 2008. It absolutely could be wrong, and the points you make are totally reasonable, but an abstract "it probably isn't true" is not a very interesting rebuttal to that kind of detail.


The hypothesis of the piece is that Boston is using a different technique to close out on shooters.

So if we look at that with the play by play data, we see that over the last three years, the following stats:

year--contested 3p%--3p% on contested 3s
2018--3.2% (5th worst)--31.6% (18th)
2017--4.4% (4th best!)--30.0% (15th)
2016--3.9% (7th best)--26.9% (8th)

So over the last three years, we see that this hypothesis doesn't add up. The Celtics have not consistently contested a higher percentage of 3pers, nor have they been very successful at those contests.

Again, if you want to explain the Celtics' 3p shooting defense, you have to explain their performance on open shots. So explanations about how they contest 3s better are not persuasive.
   1097. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:39 PM (#5775502)
That's a more interesting rebuttal -- though, if I'm reading the numbers correctly, you're saying they were the seventh-best two seasons ago, fourth-best last season, and are fifth-worst through four games this year (i.e., good in the two full seasons, and not in the tiny sample)?
   1098. tshipman Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:41 PM (#5775503)
That's a more interesting rebuttal -- though, if I'm reading the numbers correctly, you're saying they were the seventh-best two seasons ago, fourth-best last season, and are fifth-worst through four games this year (i.e., good in the two full seasons, and not in the tiny sample)?


2018 was last season, so no.
   1099. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:42 PM (#5775505)
2018 was last season, so no.
Ah, got it. Touché!
   1100. PJ Martinez Posted: October 25, 2018 at 10:42 PM (#5775506)
Also, flip.
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