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Friday, October 05, 2018

OT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom knew the old thread would get closed, thus detracting from what this site is really about: the baseball playoffs, maybe?

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 05, 2018 at 03:43 PM | 3542 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   301. Booey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5765036)
flip
   302. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:18 AM (#5765044)
I know the term "unicorn" means whatever its user wants it to mean, but by the sort-of-standard definition of "able to handle traditional big man duties, especially anchor a defense as a center, and able to handle traditional guard duties on offense, especially three point shooting", how does Al Horford not qualify? The term is generally only used with recent draft picks, but that's just sloppy thinking.

I'm definitely coming from a contrarian place here—in actual usage, "unicorn" is more about how a player makes you feel than about how they play, and I only actually care in the most petty, homeric ways—but still, show me the lie: http://bkref.com/tiny/BX2lX

i use "unicorn" as a shorthand for someone who has exceptional physical tools, with at least one or two elite basketball skills.

kobe: not a unicorn.
shaq: unicorn.
jordan: not a unicorn.
lebron: unicorn.
durant: unicorn.
giannis: unicorn.
harden: not a unicorn.
butler: not a unicorn.
kawhi: not a unicorn.
embiid: unicorn
porzingis: unicorn
gobert: unicorn.
towns: not a unicorn (but he's really damn close).
curry: unicorn (but really damn close to not being one).

   303. spivey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:28 AM (#5765049)

i use "unicorn" as a shorthand for someone who has exceptional physical tools, with at least one or two elite basketball skills.


Not surprising given how much you use the word, but I think you overuse it. Gobert isn't a unicorn. He's just the best version of a type of player that is widely prominent in the NBA.

I view it more as someone that is generationally unique in terms of skill/size. Shaq, LeBron, Durant, Giannis, Embiid work for me.
   304. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:42 AM (#5765058)
That list is insane, even using your definition.

EDIT: More importantly, to the original context of this discussion* this definition is irrelevant to the success of their teams.

*TOR and BOS are more experienced than the sixers and they should be better, but simmons and embiid are the only unicorns that would play in either series.
   305. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5765065)
Embiid spent much of the offseason working out with NBA players (including Jayson Tatum, Jordan Clarkson, Mo Bamba, and Meyers Leonard, among others) in Los Angeles



"who are 5 people that have never been in my kitchen."


“Shoot it! Shoot it!” Mark Cuban yells when Markelle Fultz catches the ball in the corner. Fultz took two dribbles and hit a 12-foot pull-up.

— Tim MacMahon (@espn_macmahon) October 8, 2018
   306. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5765070)
Reasonably sure I'm just the Cole Aldrich of the thread.


I'm on a 10-day.
   307. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:00 AM (#5765071)
Chris Hine @ChristopherHine 5m5 minutes ago

Jimmy Butler is not in Milwaukee, per Tom Thibodeau. Rehabbing in Minnesota.


Bummer. Would love to see Jimmy storm the game and demand to play with the Bucks to keep showing up KAT and Wiggins.
   308. Booey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:10 AM (#5765077)
Jazz finished the preseason 5-0. Now, you can say that the preseason isn't really indicative of anything, and I'd agree that their comeback wins over the Raptors and Blazers benches doesn't actually prove much...but I'm very confident in the results of their other 3 games - all blowout wins. The Jazz are indeed significantly better than sub-NBA caliber teams called the "Perth Wildcats", "Adelaide 36ers", and "Sacramento Kings"!
   309. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:11 AM (#5765078)
   310. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5765084)
Becoming friends with Mark Wahlberg seems like the lamest possible version of "going Hollywood."
   311. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5765086)
Damn, that Nuggets first round pick whose body was very clearly broken—my brother just told me he’s out for the season?

Denver can’t carch a break!

(He also tells me we are going to almost certainly be the worst defensive team in the league, even worse than last year. That check out?)
   312. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5765090)
Denver was pretty bad defensively last year, but not the worst. I doubt they'll be worse than teams like the Suns, Kings, and Bulls, not to mention some other teams in that range. If Millsap is healthy all year, they'll be better defensively than last year for sure.
   313. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5765091)
Butler's attitude changed after friending Mark Wahlberg

The idea that he stopped getting better isn't true. It's a fun theory though.
   314. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5765093)
I think it was known by Draft Day that Porter probably wasn't going to play this year, wasn't it? He was a top-five talent (probably would have gone #1 or #2 if fully healthy) that slid down into the mid-first because his medicals are horrific.
   315. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5765096)
There were only rumors about him not playing this year, nothing confirmed, and more rumors that his back was really f'ed up. A few days after the draft, there was a story that he'd likely miss anywhere from a few months to most of the season. If he's officially being ruled out now (I haven't seen that yet), it's not a surprise, but it would officially be new news.
   316. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:46 AM (#5765102)
I'm likely overrating myself, but I think of myself as the 13th player on G League roster.
   317. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 12, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5765106)
I don't really understand basketball, post in way higher volume than my skills merit, regard the rest of you as fools and Luddites for failing to comprehend my genius, and no matter how many bad posts in a row I toss up, I'm always 100% convinced that this one is going to be money. That's right, friends: Dion Waiters.
   318. aberg Posted: October 12, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5765111)
(He also tells me we are going to almost certainly be the worst defensive team in the league, even worse than last year. That check out?)


I think Lowe said it about Cleveland last year, but it's hard for a team that isn't tanking to be last in defense. Even trying a little bit gets you out o fthe bottom 2-3. I'd also say that getting Millsap back should help, even though Jokic means the defensive upside is something like 15-20th in DEff.
   319. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: October 12, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5765114)
Yep, Porter had questionable medicals, but definitely open to interpretation. Plenty of teams were obviously scaref off, but he did play in the NCAA tournament after all. At #15 it was (and is) still a good gamble, IMHO.
   320. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: October 12, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5765120)
I'm the Brian Scalabrine of the thread - I stand at the end of the bench and clap my hands like an idiot at all the cool things the cool people are doing and no one asks me to leave.
   321. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2018 at 12:20 PM (#5765127)
Let's see, moody, prone to getting into random altercations, lazy in my posting style:

That's right. DeMarcus Cousins.
   322. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 12, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5765143)
I don't know who I am, but I want to be Glenn Taylor. I would fire everyone I hired and then fire myself. :)
   323. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5765164)
Fred Katz @FredKatz

Bradley Beal is HYPED on Jeff Green: "Jeff is a star, man, because he’s built like LeBron and almost plays like him."

"I never told him that, but I think he should know it."


From Lowe's tier piece the other day:

Ladies and gentlemen: Meet the protected-pick brigade! Memphis owes Boston a pick that is top-eight protected in 2019; top-six protected in 2020; and unprotected in 2021. Thanks, Jeff Green!

The Clip Joint owes a lottery-protected pick to Boston. Thanks again (sorta), Jeff Green! (Seriously: The Celtics getting a first-round pick from Memphis for Jeff Green, and then 18 months later acquiring the first-rounder the Clippers sent the Grizzlies for Green, is one of my favorite current NBA things. Two teams thought Green was the missing piece, and Boston ended up with the forfeited picks from both. Incredible. Boston even received a first-round pick when it acquired Green for Kendrick Perkins in 2011!)
   324. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5765167)
"Jeff is a star, man, because he’s built like LeBron and almost plays like him."


Fantastic quote.
   325. maccoach57 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5765174)
Funny...I was thinking that "I'm the Player X of the thread" would be a fun sidebar. So far:

Aberg: Jimmy Butler
Der-K: Andrew Wiggins and/or Karl-Anthony Towns
jmurph: Cole Aldrich or Kelly Olynyk
PASTE: Dion Waiters
shipman: DeMarcus Cousins
Votto: 10-day contract guy
Edmundo: 13th guy on a DLeague roster
CFBF: Brian Scalabrine

Since I made the first-ever thread in May 2009, and the "10-12 Primates" thing has survived the entire time, that would make me an executive/coach who played a key role in moving things forward BITD and then outlived his usefulness, got out of touch, and is now pompous, useless, and needs to be replaced. So I am thinking Tom Thibodeau or Phil Jackson.

   326. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5765178)
My basketball fandom is almost the exact opposite of my baseball fandom: I don’t give two farthings when it comes to roster construction (drafts, trades, signings, etc), and can’t wait for the offseason to be over and the season to start, so I can see what the new teams look like.

In baseball, ALL I care about are which GM has the best winter!
   327. JC in DC Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5765179)
I guess that makes me the LBJ of the thread. I'm built "like" Lebron, and I almost post like him.
   328. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5765183)
I guess that makes me the LBJ of the thread. I'm built "like" Lebron,


I assume this means hairline.
   329. maccoach57 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5765188)
I guess that makes me the LBJ of the thread. I'm built "like" Lebron, and I almost post like him.


Sorry, buddy, but that makes you the Jeff Green of the thread. Ha.
   330. JC in DC Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5765189)
Two arms, two legs, receding hairline. "Like" LBJ.
   331. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5765195)
i am the russell westbrook of this thread:
high usage
versatile skillset
simmering with rage
impeccable style

   332. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5765197)
i am the russell westbrook of this thread:
high usage
versatile skillset
simmering with rage
impeccable style

And when you're going, nobody else can get a post in edgewise. I can see it.
   333. maccoach57 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5765198)
Ok:

JC in DC: "like" LeBron James
STIGGLES/57i66135: Russell Westbrook

I am going to be selfish and probably pick a player for myself, too, although I do like being Thibodeau, who was seen as a wiz back in 2009 after his role in Boston's 2008 title and is now leading a lot of "who will be the first coach fired" parades.
   334. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5765199)
i am the russell westbrook of this thread:
high usage
versatile skillset
simmering with rage
impeccable style


Leads the thread in bad takes.
   335. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5765205)
I'm the Carmelo Anthony of the thread. I'm not good anymore. I used to be, but I was never as good as I thought I was.
   336. aberg Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5765209)
Aberg: Jimmy Butler
Der-K: Andrew Wiggins and/or Karl-Anthony Towns


The irony is that I don't think I'm much like Butler at all and I don't think Der-K is much like Wiggins, but I will not break kayfabe and admit that.
   337. King Mekong Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5765210)
I’m the Matt Bonner of the thread.

This season sucks. Where’s the best sandwich?
   338. King Mekong Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5765212)
The season sucks because now Derrick white is out. Sucks. Lost 3 guards for most of the season before the first game.
   339. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5765214)
What a nightmare for the Spurs.
   340. maccoach57 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5765215)
The irony is that I don't think I'm much like Butler at all and I don't think Der-K is much like Wiggins, but I will not break kayfabe and admit that.


Heh. Everyone should pick his own guy, so you should go for someone else. The Butler thing is just funny.
   341. JC in DC Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5765216)
They've still got Ginobili and Parker, thank god!
   342. Booey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5765219)
Well, he's not in the league anymore, but...

I burst onto the NBA thread scene in 2011 and immediately ignited great multi page debates about officiating favoritism and big/small market discrepancies. !Humblebrag alert! - one of my posts from those debates was even quoted by Neil Paine in national publications twice - in Basketball Prospectus in 2012 and in 538 Sports in 2014 (not that I'm keeping track or anything... ;-)

So I entered the league with a lot of hype and promise, drawing plenty of attention right off the bat...but ultimately my career ended up being disappointing and irrelevant. Plus I look like I'm 40*, have torn ACL's in both knees, and I can't walk 9 consecutive steps without re-injuring myself.

I'm the Greg Oden of the BBTF NBA thread.


* Although unlike Greg, I really am pushing 40
   343. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:38 PM (#5765220)
Who do the Spurs have on the perimeter? DeRozan and Mills. Marco Belinelli. Bryn Forbes, I guess. And then guys like Dante Cunningham whose best position is actually center.
   344. aberg Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5765227)
Rudy Gay is the only other sorta wing. They might be screwed.
   345. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5765229)
If Pop manages to make this team competitive then he's even better than I thought and I have him as the best coach ever.
   346. Booey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 02:59 PM (#5765232)
So are we ready to do season predictions yet, or is everyone still waiting to see how the Butler SNAFU plays out?
   347. spivey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5765233)
The injuries to the Spurs players, in particular Murray, is especially bad not because of how it affects this year, but because of how it affects his career arc. It's unfortunate.

Forbes will get his shot, I guess. Not gonna be a lot of assists this year, I don't think.

I still think Mills, DeRozan, Gay, Aldridge, and Poetl/Gasol/Bertans is an acceptable team. But really not much depth, especially among playmakers. Hitting on a G-League guy would be huge right now. You know there's gotta be some waterbug point guard in that league that can get you buckets.
   348. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5765241)
Between the Spurs injury epidemic and Minnesota's roster issues, it really pushes the other 2nd tier teams in the West up a rung or two. Utah could very well be the second-best team in the West. The Pelicans could host a playoff series. I was iffy about the Lakers getting a playoff spot, but 46-48 wins now looks very doable.

What do you guys think are the chances that Minnesota rallies behind Butler's anger and turns in a 54-win season?
   349. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5765260)
What do you guys think are the chances that Minnesota rallies behind Butler's anger and turns in a 54-win season?


I have absolutely no idea how to evaluate Minnesota. They are a completely bonkers team, and Butler's antics have made them even more bonkers.

They are one of the most talented teams in the league (Two consensus #1 overall picks!), who habitually underachieve on defense despite having a defensive coach. Their best player doesn't want to be there. Their best lineups involve their third string point guard. Derrick Rose is involved.

Who the f knows?
   350. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:43 PM (#5765263)
What do you guys think are the chances that Minnesota rallies behind Butler's anger and turns in a 54-win season?

The Subaru telescope on top of Mauna Kea, at 8.2m, is the largest single-mirror reflector telescope in the world. The 500m Tianyan in China is the largest fixed-aperture radio telescope. If you could somehow fix Tianyan through the Subaru, you still would not be able to detect the Wolves' chances of retaining Butler and winning 54 games.
   351. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5765264)
Jeff Van Gundy is fully embracing his image as a cranky old man, eh?
   352. maccoach57 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5765266)
I am a NBA simpleton...star talent uber alles. So if Minnesota keeps Butler and he and Towns play 75 games each I think they will have a very good team. But I do think Butler will bail at the end of the year.
   353. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5765288)
They are one of the most talented teams in the league (Two consensus #1 overall picks!), who habitually underachieve on defense despite having a defensive coach. Their best player doesn't want to be there. Their best lineups involve their third string point guard. Derrick Rose is involved.

3 #1 picks.
   354. aberg Posted: October 12, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5765294)

3 #1 picks.


Is Bargnani available?
   355. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 12, 2018 at 04:45 PM (#5765313)
They also recently had Anthony Bennett.
   356. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: October 12, 2018 at 05:22 PM (#5765337)
If you could somehow fix Tianyan through the Subaru, you still would not be able to detect the Wolves' chances of retaining Butler and winning 54 games.


Minnesota's situation is more like someone driving a Subaru through the Tianyan telescope.
   357. aberg Posted: October 12, 2018 at 05:57 PM (#5765356)
Tianyan. Tianyan came at me. We're up in the observatory and he said, "Anybody can see this planet!" I said, "Show it to me." That's all that I said. I said, "Every time I look out of you, you get blurry." I'm an astronomer, I'm in here talking, come at me. If you show me a planet, I'm gonna tap you on your butt. You got the best for me -- but you got to do it every time. Am I being tough on Tianyan? Yeah! Yeah, that's who I am.
   358. Tin Angel Posted: October 12, 2018 at 06:21 PM (#5765362)
Jeff Van Gundy is fully embracing his image as a cranky old man, eh?


He was making fun of players for getting tired at the end of the year. "Did you ever hear about Jordan getting tired!?" That Lowe Post was an hour of JVG whining about the players today and talking about how great the coaches are. Pretty much unlistenable at this point.
   359. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 12, 2018 at 06:41 PM (#5765368)
So how long before the Kings hire JVG? 3 months?
   360. Chicago Joe Posted: October 12, 2018 at 07:04 PM (#5765375)
The Subaru telescope on top of Mauna Kea, at 8.2m, is the largest single-mirror reflector telescope in the world. The 500m Tianyan in China is the largest fixed-aperture radio telescope. If you could somehow fix Tianyan through the Subaru, you still would not be able to detect the Wolves' chances of retaining Butler and winning 54 games.


And what you’d actually be seeing is Mikan and the Lakers winning titles in Minneapolis BITGOD.
   361. JJ1986 Posted: October 12, 2018 at 07:22 PM (#5765381)
Bryn Forbes, DeMar DeRozan, Davis Bertans, LaMarcus Aldridge and Jakob Poeltl will start on Friday.

   362. spivey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 07:56 PM (#5765389)
I wanted to piggy back off of #358. JVG has gotten significantly worse over the last several years. It's hard to say why, though I feel like it's coincided a decent amount with Mark Jackson being fired. Those guys just bring out the worst in each other. JVG used to seem pretty funny and like he didn't take himself too seriously - now he just whines constantly. It'd really be nice for ESPN to break that crew up.

I went from really seeking out JVG content a few years ago to now I just skip it, and watching the Jackson/JVG/guy games on mute.
   363. PJ Martinez Posted: October 12, 2018 at 08:49 PM (#5765403)
Doncic to DSJ is pretty fun.
   364. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 12, 2018 at 09:43 PM (#5765458)
Good lord the Wolves are terrible.
   365. JC in DC Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:28 PM (#5765483)
No one can think playing Rose 30+ minutes and having him jack up 15 shots is good, right?
   366. spivey Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:35 PM (#5765489)
Rose can.
   367. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: October 12, 2018 at 10:54 PM (#5765496)
Is Bargnani available?

This reminds me. In unexpected NBA news, this week I found out that the exec assistant who sits next to me's 23-year-old NYC raised son's favorite NBA player is/was Andrea Bargnani.
   368. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:45 AM (#5765540)
KAT's quotes tonight are not good.
"This momentum we're riding right now, this wave we're riding, it's not good. It's not good at all."
Probably not gonna rally around Jimmy and win 54 games.
   369. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 13, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5765570)
That Thibs has a job, still less two, is the most pointed indictment of Taylor’s incompetence possible.
   370. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 13, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5765588)
Just something that’s occurred to me as I read various season previews and predictions around the internet. There seems to be a widespread assumption, when looking at the Celtics, that Gordon Hayward is going to go right back to being Gordon Hayward. He seems like a good guy so I sincerely hope that proves to be the case. But it seems to me likelier that he will never be the same player again—the injury he suffered was catastrophic, and even 20 years ago would probably have been career ending—and I haven’t seen anything yet in preseason games to make me hope otherwise.

There’s no reason to think the Celtics won’t continue to be elite this year. But “now with Gordon Hayward added, they’re going to be even better!” Isn’t a position I’d put a big stake on before we’ve actually seen him play like Gordon Hayward of old for a while.
   371. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5765595)
From BR:

Though he has since recovered from that (leg) injury, Hayward told reporters Wednesday that he's been dealing with back soreness.

"My back's been ongoing a little bit, but definitely got progressively worse and that's what made me think I need to dial it back a little bit. I think in the past, it's bothered me, but it's gone down with treatment and stuff. But this time it was getting worse, especially after playing. So, like I said, I have to rebuild the strength. My leg is strong because I've been focusing on that. But then you forget that you don't focus on other things that are important and the back is definitely an important part. You can't do much when your back is hurting."


The key, of course, is whether he will be mostly what he was in postseason. That is when Boston will need Hayward and Irving on the floor and creating O.
   372. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5765598)
They had a 51-31 PYTH and were 18th in ORTG (1 in DRTG) so they weren't really an elite two-way team last year. The East's "elite" team by the basic metrics was the LeBronto Raptors, who posted a 60-22 PYTH, won 59 real games, and were 2nd in ORTG and 5th in DRTG. So, the thing with Boston is, they were good last year and if Tatum gets a bit better, Hayward is back-back, and Irving and Hayward are there in postseason, then they are favorites to make the Finals and have a legit 60-win-talent level, East or West.
   373. tshipman Posted: October 13, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5765606)
Just something that’s occurred to me as I read various season previews and predictions around the internet. There seems to be a widespread assumption, when looking at the Celtics, that Gordon Hayward is going to go right back to being Gordon Hayward. He seems like a good guy so I sincerely hope that proves to be the case. But it seems to me likelier that he will never be the same player again—the injury he suffered was catastrophic, and even 20 years ago would probably have been career ending—and I haven’t seen anything yet in preseason games to make me hope otherwise.

There’s no reason to think the Celtics won’t continue to be elite this year. But “now with Gordon Hayward added, they’re going to be even better!” Isn’t a position I’d put a big stake on before we’ve actually seen him play like Gordon Hayward of old for a while.


I mean, the other thing is that Gordon Hayward has a grand total of one year of all-star level play. So "Gordon Hayward of old" is a pretty low impact guy outside of one year.

It really drives me crazy how people don't acknowledge that.
   374. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5765618)
Hayward has only made one ASG, but his last three PERs were 20.2, 18.3 and 22.2 with WS/48s of .159. .147 and .199. His OBPMs have been quite good those last three years as well. With Butler (for now), James and George in the West, and with Hayward playing in Boston, I expect that he will be voted in as a starter this year even if he is not playing especially well.

Last year would have been Hayward's age-27 season, so between that and the injury, it is possible that he has already had his best year. But I think it is important not to overthink stuff: Hayward is good, he provides skills Boston needs, he is still in his 20s, and James has left the East. If Hayward is 80-90% of what he was pre-injury, he makes Boston marginally better in Games 1-82 and could really help them a lot in May and June.
   375. PJ Martinez Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5765626)
I was, not surprisingly, about to type most of what robin just did. It's true that Hayward's last full season was his best, so, depending on where you set the bar for All-Star level play, it's possible he only cleared it once. But it's not like that one year was some strange outlier. (Also, for what it's worth, his numbers are very comparable to those of Paul George -- though of course George has the stronger defensive reputation.)

The injury thing does worry me, though. Hayward had serious setbacks during his recovery, and he's clearly not 100% yet. Maybe he never will be. Also, the Celtics looked pretty bad in preseason all around. It's only preseason, obviously, but it certainly provided a glimpse of how things good go worse than expected: Hayward doesn't fully recover, Tatum's shot selection regresses, Horford looks a little older, Brown tries to do too much...

The bottom line, for me, is that while I still think they could be excellent, I'm feeling a little less rosy than I was a month ago. Also I think Toronto could be awesome, so even if things go well for Boston I don't think that's a guaranteed ticket to the Finals.
   376. tshipman Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:43 PM (#5765644)
I was, not surprisingly, about to type most of what robin just did. It's true that Hayward's last full season was his best, so, depending on where you set the bar for All-Star level play, it's possible he only cleared it once. But it's not like that one year was some strange outlier. (Also, for what it's worth, his numbers are very comparable to those of Paul George -- though of course George has the stronger defensive reputation.)


2016-2017 was the only year of his career (Edit: would be better to say "in the last five years" as he was a slight positive in his second year) where Hayward was a positive defensively (by on/off).

Also his best year in terms of shot selection, shooting and turnover avoidance. It's a pretty big outlier to the rest of his career.

Hayward has only made one ASG, but his last three PERs were 20.2, 18.3 and 22.2 with WS/48s of .159. .147 and .199. His OBPMs have been quite good those last three years as well. With Butler (for now), James and George in the West, and with Hayward playing in Boston, I expect that he will be voted in as a starter this year even if he is not playing especially well.


20 PER is not an all star--particularly with poor defense. There were roughly 35 guys above that level last year.
   377. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5765651)
Defense is the area that concerns me the most about post-injury Hayward. Even if he no longer has any burst I’m sure he’ll provide value on offense as a high IQ screen runner and spot up shooter. But it’s not hard to imagine him spending the rest of his career as a distinct defensive liability.
   378. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5765652)
20 PER is not an all star--particularly with poor defense.


Didn't say it was, necessarily, but 20 PER is, with some exceptions, usually roughly ASG caliber. 24 or so guys make the ASG, and 20 PER, as you say, is more or less Top 35.

Lowe did a very detailed, chatty, point-counterpoint-next point-data point-tactical point about BOS/TOR/PHI in his tiers deal. It was interesting, but ultimately:

Is Leonard still Leonard and will he play 75 games and postseason?
Will Hayward and Irving be healthy in post-season and will Hayward be Hayward?
Will Embiid stay on the floor, will Simmons improve at the margins, and will Fultz suck?

Last year, when a bunch of people here were trading jabs about Boston and Jimmy Butler, I suggested that some people were overrating the value of Boston's second-line guys--Olynyk, Bradley, et al. I think Lowe is still doing that with Brown, Smart, and Rozier. That is one reason why Hayward, even if he is a little overrated, is so important and a potential difference-maker.

   379. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5765654)
But it’s not hard to imagine him spending the rest of his career as a distinct defensive liability.


Perhaps, but that is in part where Stephens comes in. As I have said many times, I think micro-tactics are generally overrated in the NBA. But if Hayward has a lost a step, Stephens is getting paid to help cover for stuff like that. And again, Boston needs guys who can generate O and make plays to take the next step.
   380. maccoach57 Posted: October 13, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5765657)
Also:

King Mekong: Matt Bonner
Booey: Greg Oden
Hombre: Carmelo Anthony
   381. JC in DC Posted: October 13, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5765678)
Wolves fans/sufferers: the last piece of the Bulls-redux is available for Thib's taking. Will he?
   382. CFBF Rides The Zombie Ice Dragon Posted: October 13, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5765688)
It would be the least surprising thing in the world if Noah just decided to embark on his "drink wine and smoke pot on a beach" retirement plan.
   383. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 13, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5765693)
Nah, I think at this moment I would be slightly less surprised if he signed with the Wolves.
   384. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 13, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5765701)
The way Thibodeau’s team plays makes you suspect he might think it’s still 2009. Then you look at his roster decisions, and they make it crystal clear that, yes indeed, he definitely thinks it’s still 2009. He may have been great at the time, but it turns out he can’t adapt.

That may not make him a bad coach in 2018. Just not a coach you want to give roster control and a gigantic pile of money to.
   385. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 13, 2018 at 06:17 PM (#5765755)
When al you have is ICE, everything looks like a thumb.
   386. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 14, 2018 at 02:22 AM (#5766176)
More 76ers randomness:
The Philadelphia 76ers apologized Saturday for offensive tweets made by a burner Twitter account run by Sixers center Mike Muscala's father.
I'm not sure that the 76ers needed to apologize, but those tweets were pretty gnarly
."Butler behavior not a 'dust up'. This is egomaniacal, African American mental illness."
"Can the Wolves overcome tChicago diseases of selfishness, mafioso/dons and gang murder... And become the MINNESOTA Timberwolves again?"
   387. PJ Martinez Posted: October 14, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5766229)
'Minnesota's Jimmy Butler practiced again Sunday and is expected to play in season opener in San Antonio on Wednesday. Heat/Timberwolves talks have been dead, for now, league sources said." -- Shama
   388. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 14, 2018 at 06:52 PM (#5766302)
There was some discussion about Luka Doncic being unathletic a week or so ago. After watching him a couple times, I have to say--sorry, Luka--I think he is going to be a superstar, and soon, if he stays healthy.

He has wonderful instincts. He's very aggressive, yet unselfish. Never forces a shot. If you run in the halfcourt and create a passing lane for yourself, he will find you. As described here, he looks almost lumbering, the way he moves--yet he's constantly getting open looks for himself and creating space for teammates, with a sneaky-quick first step and the kind of knack for feeling a play developing that you can't teach. He's not at all afraid to get physical, and I think his rebounding will quickly improve as he gains NBA experience. He'll not likely ever be a great defender, but he won't need to be hidden on defense, either--with basketball IQ like his he'll be better at team defense than on-ball, probably--and will get some steals and blocks by being a half-step ahead of the play.

I advocated picking him #1 on grounds that he may not have a very high ceiling, but he does have a high floor, and it wasn't a good draft class. Now I think he actually is a good bet to be an all-NBA player, and I think the Hawks were crazy to trade him.

That's my contribution to Let's Overreact To Three Meaningless Preseason Games. Who's turn is next? :)
   389. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: October 14, 2018 at 09:10 PM (#5766418)
That's my contribution to Let's Overreact To Three Meaningless Preseason Games. Who's turn is next? :)

The Lakers and Bucks are both going to win 50+ and it's going to be a hell of an MVP battle between Giannis and LeBron.
   390. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 14, 2018 at 09:53 PM (#5766449)
In other news, I want to shoot myself in the face for typing "who's" instead of "whose". Puke.

e: Other observations since I watched Charlotte a couple times: I've been kind of rooting for Frank Kaminsky ever since Harveys Wallbangers was posting in this thread about him a couple years ago, when he was in the draft pool, even though I personally thought he wasn't going to be an NBA player. Well, I was right: he's not an NBA player. At least not anything more than an end-of-the-bench big. Miles Bridges, however, can play. I wasn't big on him coming out of college either, but I'm already prepared to admit being wrong on that one. No idea if he can be a star, but he can play in the NBA. He has good instincts and plays with energy. Looks like a valuable bench/rotation guy at minimum.
   391. jmurph Posted: October 15, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5766614)
Emiliano Carchia @Carchia
Joakim Noah’s tenure with Knicks:
53 games played
1.057 minutes on the court
$72.59 million earned
$1.36 million per game
$68,685 per minute on the court

What are the other candidates for worst contract in league history? I've got Chandler Parsons on the shortlist.
   392. jmurph Posted: October 15, 2018 at 10:07 AM (#5766633)
I mean, the other thing is that Gordon Hayward has a grand total of one year of all-star level play. So "Gordon Hayward of old" is a pretty low impact guy outside of one year.

It really drives me crazy how people don't acknowledge that.

Hayward was very good his last three years in Utah. Certainly around All Star level looking at the league as a whole.

2016-17: 15th in WS, 29th in RPM Wins
2015-16: 21st in WS, 19th in RPM Wins
2014-15: 18th in WS, 17th in RPM Wins

Those were also his age 24-26 years. It seems pretty reasonable to say he had established an All Star level of play and looked set to continue that, pre leg explosion.
   393. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 15, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5766634)
Final Day of Offseason O/U Win Totals from 5Dimes. Listed the juice on the over:

Boston 59
Toronto 55.5 (-125)
Philadelphia 53.5 (-105)
Milwaukee 48 (-125)
Indiana 47.5 (-115)
Washington 45.5
Miami 43 (-120)
Detroit 38.5 (-120)
Charlotte 35.5 (-130)
Brooklyn 32 (-105)
Orlando 31 (-105)
Cleveland 30.5 (-140)
Chicago 30 (+110)
New York 28.5 (+110)
Atlanta 23.5 (+115)

Golden State 62.5 (-115)
Houston 56.5 (-115)
Utah 49.5 (-125)
Oklahoma City 48.5 (-115)
Lakers 48.5
Denver 47.5 (-115)
New Orleans 45.5 (+100)
San Antonio 43.5 (-120)
Portland 42 (-125)
Minnesota 41.5 (+100)
Clippers 37 (+100)
Memphis 34.5 (-105)
Phoenix 29
Sacramento 26 (-105)

I want to bet one, more than I usually bet, to have a team to follow/jeer throughout the season. Prefer an Eastern Conference team for bed time and/or prefer a team that's on TV. This is not a good way to make a bet, but whatever.

Leans - Detroit over. This is betting with my heart and I won't do it, but I do think Blake Griffin is better than people realize at this point and think a coaching change will help (yes, Virginia, you can play three guards at one time). Drummond's delusions of grandeur worry me, though. And I recognize Blake will probably get hurt.

Philadelphia under. Think some of those wins at the end got racked up against dregs and on the backs of more shooting than they currently have. Plus betting this will make lurking in this thread even more fun.

Bucks under. Just want to bet against conventional wisdom here. Over was Simmons' biggest lock.

Clippers under. Won't bet it but smell a tank train rolling through when they realize early that it isn't happening.

Pelicans over. I'm buying Mirotic and Randle. I know the two of them can't play at same time as Davis (all 3 together) but hoping coaching can figure it out. This is probably a bad bet.

EDIT - Adding Thunder over. Expected w-l of 50 last year, and subtracting Carmelo should be a big bonus.
   394. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: October 15, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5766643)
Minnesota under, Toronto an easy over.
   395. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 15, 2018 at 10:33 AM (#5766659)
Bets I like:

Philadelphia UNDER 53.5 (Simmons and Embiid both have to be healthy most/all of the season for them to win 54, it's not likely)
Washington UNDER 45.5 (Added Dwight Howard to an already shaky locker room)
Charlotte OVER 35.5 (Won 36 last year and subtracted Dwight Howard, and Cleveland will lose 20-25 wins that will get redistributed)
Golden State UNDER 62.5 (they're long past giving a #### about the regular season)
Utah UNDER 49.5 (because they're Utah and they will suffer injuries)
San Antonio OVER 43.5 (I don't think they're much worse than last year, DeRozan is a good player at least in the regular season, Pop will make this work)
Portland OVER 42 (I mean one of these years Portland will fall apart, right? But they keep... not falling apart)
Minnesota UNDER 41.5 (I'm surprised they're even on the board though)

I'll add that I almost went under on Milwaukee. I'm optimistic about Budenholzer making better use of Giannis than Kidd did, but the Bucks still have a... challenging roster to win 50 with, and Giannis' knee also makes me nervous. I'm not going under on them but I don't see value in over 48 there, on balance.

I go against conventional wisdom on a good many of their players: I think Bledsoe is a poor fit there, I think perimeter defense will still be a major problem because even with a coach who TRIES to defend the perimeter they don't have any players who can do it, I think DiVincenzo won't help them at all this year, I think Maker will continue to subtract more than he adds, and they're still going to give too many minutes to guys like Dellavedova and Henson who aren't useful NBA players even off the bench. Brook Lopez may prove extremely useful for them, though.
   396. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 15, 2018 at 11:15 AM (#5766716)
hayward was a solid defender, pre-injury. we'll see going forward.
   397. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 15, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5766724)
   398. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 15, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5766728)
Doesn't look like anyone mentioned Winslow's extention - 3/$39mil. Superficially from afar, it seems like he's been underwhelming. This also doesn't seem like a crazy deal, but I do wonder if he'd really get that much were he a FA.

Then, there's this tidbit:
Five Reasons Sports Network @5ReasonsSports Oct 12

The Heat now have 8 players who will be making more than $10 million per season:

Whiteside. Tyler. Dragic. JJ. Olynyk. Waiters. Richardson. Winslow.

Toronto has 5.

Washington has 5.

Milwaukee has 5.

Boston has 4.

Philadelphia has 4.

Something has to give here.


Maybe it's an overreaction, but it does seem like they've really capped their ceiling with their roster.
   399. jmurph Posted: October 15, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5766731)
Maybe it's an overreaction, but it does seem like they've really capped their ceiling with their roster.

They have so many bad contracts, but they might also be about to luck into Butler for basically nothing, so A+ strategy, would strategize again, I guess.
   400. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 15, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5766749)
Winslow: I think it's yet another case of the Heat overpaying to keep one of their own, that there wouldn't be the market for him.
That said -- and I can't back this up with data --
I have a feeling he's going to turn the corner offensively, where a small to medium improvement as a shooter/scorer will make him worth the money (he's 22, he's a versatile and talented defender, solid rebounder and teritary playmaker).
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