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Friday, October 05, 2018

OT - NBA Thread (2018-19 season kickoff edition)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, none of whom knew the old thread would get closed, thus detracting from what this site is really about: the baseball playoffs, maybe?

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 05, 2018 at 03:43 PM | 3701 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   3201. jmurph Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:29 PM (#5794453)
I remain confused why Philly's offense is built around getting extremely difficult shots for JJ Redick.
   3202. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: December 05, 2018 at 10:52 PM (#5794456)
I remain confused why Philly's offense is built around getting extremely difficult shots for JJ Redick.


Do they still refuse to run P&Rs;? And if so, why?
   3203. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:25 AM (#5794464)
Feel so bad for Fultz. Guy did nothing to deserve this living nightmare. Brutal
there's a decent chance that fultz got into a motorcycle accident before the draft and has been lying about it/covering it up ever since.
I'm pretty much convinced that "wiggle" is a bullshit dump term that means that this player isn't as good as the person describing them expects.

You guys were all about how Doncic didn't have "wiggle" and that meant that he wasn't the obvious #1 overall.

"Wiggle" can always be observed in hindsight, after consulting a stat sheet, which makes me super skeptical that there's anything at all there.

wiggle: create separation from a defender off the dribble. the easier it happens, the better the wiggle.
burst: quick twitch explosion off the dribble, generally in a straight line, going towards the rim.

doncic doesn't have burst, and he doesn't really have wiggle either. what he does have is size, ballhandling, shooting, BBIQ and a team that's willing to run their offense through him.
I remain confused why Philly's offense is built around getting extremely difficult shots for JJ Redick.
it's generally the only thing they can do that isn't likely to produce a turnover.
Do they still refuse to run P&Rs;? And if so, why?
more or less. on the plus side, butler may be forcing some evolution.

as for why, they don't have a reliable ballhandler who can execute a pick and roll. also, embiid doesn't appear to show much aptitude for rolling.

in place of pnrs, they tend to run dribble hand offs, mostly featuring embiid and redick. the concept is similar, except it puts the ball into embiid's hands.
   3204. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:46 AM (#5794465)
looking ahead to the trade deadline for a few minutes:

as far as i can tell, there are only 6 teams that appear likely to be sellers because everyone else is either in a playoff spot, or within 2 games of a playoff spot.

BRK: dinwiddie, russell, faried, dudley, davis, carroll
NYK: mudiay, lee, kanter, burke, hezonja
CLE: love, hood, clarkson, hill, nance, thompson, nwaba
ATL: bazemore, lin, plumlee, dedmon, carter
CHI: portis, lopez, holiday
PHX: ariza, crawford, anderson


this could be a historically profitable sellers market.
   3205. JC in DC Posted: December 06, 2018 at 08:54 AM (#5794489)
t
here's a decent chance that fultz got into a motorcycle accident before the draft and has been lying about it/covering it up ever since.


For all your dumbass theoretical trades, you're at your worst when you turn unsubstantiated rumor into allegation.
   3206. JL72 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 08:59 AM (#5794491)
nope. denying the existence of a mental illness is not a solution when the issue is actually mental illness.


I don't disagree. But Fultz's agent may not know or agree with that.
   3207. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 06, 2018 at 09:51 AM (#5794513)
this could be a historically profitable sellers market.

Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to structure a "who says no?" for those six teams and 30 players.
   3208. maccoach57 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5794519)
For all your dumbass theoretical trades, you're at your worst when you turn unsubstantiated rumor into allegation.


Not in the holiday spirit yet? Heh.

   3209. maccoach57 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5794522)
EAST:

Unlike the West with the intense parity, The East seems to have a "traditional" tier thing happening:

Tier 1: Toronto, Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia
Tier 2: Indiana, Detroit

I think Washington will get in unless they make tear-down deals. In spite of all the bad vibes, they are back to 11-14 and looking a bit better.
   3210. . . . . . . Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5794524)
Your assignment, should you choose to accept it, is to structure a "who says no?" for those six teams and 30 players.


please don't encourage this
   3211. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:24 AM (#5794531)
I'm pro-wiggle and while I agree with stiggles definition, I disagree with his conclusion that Doncic lacks it.
   3212. . . . . . . Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5794534)
wiggles tickles stiggles testicles
   3213. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:39 AM (#5794535)
I whispered it quietly last page, but I'll say it clearly: I think it's time for Philadelphia to move on from Brett Brown.

This has nothing to do with last night's game particularly; last night they played on the road against a better team and lost. There's nothing extraordinary about that.

Brown is an NBA caliber coach. He's done terrific work turning The Process into one of the best defensive teams in the league. Sure, he got elite talent, but he also got more marginal talents up and down the roster playing excellent defense. The team hustles like hell, and they play unselfishly. There's lots to like there.

But. But I think they've gone about as far as Brown can take them, at this point. They bizarrely refuse to run the pick-and-roll, like hardly ever, and they are horrendously sloppy with the ball, and if anything they're getting worse over time in that area. Not Golden State sloppy, like they get bored and just mess around; Philadelphia gets more sloppy as the game goes on, and more sloppy against better opposition. These are things that it's clear by now won't change, as long as Brown is the coach.

I'm not saying fire him now. But this coming offseason will be the right time to part ways and hire a coach more in tune with modern NBA offense and who won't tolerate turnovers the way Brown does. (Though if, as I alluded last page, Portland fires Stotts midseason for example, I would probably pull the trigger on firing Brown and hiring Stotts immediately, before someone else does. But I may think more highly of Stotts than most.)

Most of the coaches in the NBA are decent NBA coaches, not easily distinguishable in total quality. But different coaches have different strengths and weaknesses. The Sixers have gotten a lot out of Brett Brown's strengths--and the effect of the good things he's taught them will linger for at least a while after he's gone--but the time has probably come to bring in an established coach who does well what Brown does poorly.

All of that said, there's no use firing Brown unless you're certain such a coach can be had. The danger of firing a coach you know is capable is that you end up with a coach who's less capable.
   3214. spivey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:45 AM (#5794539)
I was reminiscing about Danny Green's amazing career, and of course front and center are when he went supernova in those 2 playoffs in 2012-13 and 2013-14 when the Spurs went to back to back Finals against the Heat. Danny green had 103 3-pointers made combined across those two playoffs, shooting at about 48% from 3.

That's about the highest 2 year total I can find, especially back to back. Better than James, Kyrie, Durant, Harden, Kobe, Love (who also has some under the radar great playoff shooting stats). A touch behind Ray Allen's best, which is 111 (non-consecutive years though). Then Klay and Steph each have single seasons with 98 3pm in the playoffs. Those guys are really at another level.
   3215. spivey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:49 AM (#5794541)
I think Brett Brown is a good coach that has that team playing about as well as can be expected given how weak their bench and rotation pieces are. I do think they set the process back a couple of years with the Fultz trade and their general chucklefuckery this last offseason. I imagine he will need to win a post-season series to keep his job, and could very well mean beating a team like Indiana or Boston. But I view them not so differently from Milwaukee of last year, though Milwaukee had way less talent. I mean, Bud has overhauled the system and all that. But you really have to have spacing in today's NBA, especially when your best ball handlers are weak shooters. It's hard to run a great offense with that team, especially right now when most teams are still playing hard and/or in the playoff hunt.
   3216. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:58 AM (#5794545)
1. I don't think the Bulls will be (or should be) trading Portis. Lopez, definitely. Holiday, no strong feeling either way but it's not like he's going to bring much back.

2. I agree on the wiggle thing. Just because it's subjective doesn't mean it doesn't exist. Of course, like just about anything, it's just one part of a package; guys can succeed without it and can fail with it.

3. I'm not convinced MIL, TOR, BOS, and PHI all belong on the same tier in the East.

4. Both the Bulls and Blackhawks have only 3 wins in their last 19 games. Thank goodness the Bears are interesting.
   3217. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5794547)
Kirk Goldsberry @kirkgoldsberry 1h1 hour ago

Updated unassisted dunk leaders:
1. Giannis 48
2. Gobert 19
3. Embiid 17


That one on Blake last night, wooo.
   3218. maccoach57 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5794550)
3213 is a good post. I would note, though, that Philadelphia is 12th in ORTG, and may eke into the Top 10 with Butler around the rest of the year. So I think it is more of a personnel issue.
   3219. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:14 AM (#5794555)
Has anyone ever actually sat down with Giannis Antetokounmpo and explained the charging rule to him? Like, if the guy is standing there with both feet planted, you're not allowed to run over him?
   3220. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5794557)
Tier 1: Toronto, Milwaukee, Boston, Philadelphia
Tier 2: Indiana, Detroit


Assuming Oladipo is coming back, I'd keep Indiana alone on Tier 2. Pistons puked up all their goodwill they've earned these last two games. They can't score.

Tier 3 is Washington, Charlotte, Detroit, Orlando, Miami. My current guess is Washington, Charlotte and Detroit make it. Over/under on combined playoff wins for the three Tier 3 teams is about 3 I'd guess.

That Tier 1 is pretty fun and I don't really know who I think makes the Finals. I like that it has two teams I will happily pull for (Toronto/Milwaukee) and two teams that I will hate with my hater's heart (Boston/Philadelphia). Current odds are Toronto +180, Boston +230, Philadelphia +475, Milwaukee +500.
   3221. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:19 AM (#5794560)
I also think that TOR and MIL are significantly better than BOS/PHI.
   3222. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:20 AM (#5794561)
3219--Giannis is a really thoughtful guy. Everything he does has a purpose.
   3223. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:24 AM (#5794564)
3219--Giannis is a really thoughtful guy. Everything he does has a purpose.


I don't doubt that this is true. But Giannis has two weaknesses: he can't shoot, and he habitually picks up dumb fouls.

I could be wrong about this--it might just be who he is and you can no more make him play less wildly than you can make Andrew Wiggins look for the pass--but I feel more optimistic about his being able to fix the latter than the former. Just... don't do stuff that any fool can understand is going to get you whistled.

The two classes of dumb foul Giannis is most prone to committing are the Really Obvious Charge and the Hacking Desperation Lunge From Behind on a guy who's gone and going up for the layup. I don't think either of these is integral to the positive aspects of his game. Both things do result in highlight reel dunks and blocks, but at about a 1-to-10 ratio of highlights to fouls. He'll help his team more if he's not constantly in foul trouble.
   3224. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5794566)
3. I'm not convinced MIL, TOR, BOS, and PHI all belong on the same tier in the East.

Go on...

My opinion on Philadelphia hasn't really changed much post-Butler. They aren't beating anyone good 4 times in 2 weeks as currently constructed.
   3225. RJ in TO Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5794568)
I could be wrong about this--it might just be who he is and you can no more make him play less wildly than you can make Andrew Wiggins look for the pass--but I feel more optimistic about his being able to fix the latter than the former. Just... don't do stuff that any fool can understand is going to get you whistled.
I would rather him not change this, as it's a lot of fun to watch him just run the #### over some poor bastard a couple times a game.
   3226. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5794569)
Speaking of Giannis the WSJ just posted an article calling him the Steph Curry of slam dunks because he is on pace to destroy the dunks in a season record like Curry did for 3 pointers
   3227. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5794570)
Checking the stats on bask-ref, looks like the blame for the turnover problem mostly falls on Simmons and McConnell. Is there a sense of whether PnR heavy offenses turn the ball over more or less?
   3228. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5794573)
My opinion on Philadelphia hasn't really changed much post-Butler. They aren't beating anyone good 4 times in 2 weeks as currently constructed.

I've seen it mentioned in a few places that the tracking data is a lot kinder to their post-Butler performance than the box score data.
   3229. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5794574)
3223--he has 68 fouls which isn't great but he's on the same per game pace he has had pretty much his whole career. Never really noticed this being an issue.
   3230. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:35 AM (#5794575)
I've seen it mentioned in a few places that the tracking data is a lot kinder to their post-Butler performance than the box score data.

Oh they are better for having him, I don't doubt that at all. He's very good. I just don't think that really changes the problems with Redick and Simmons and their total lack of someone to guard point guards, etc. They're good, possibly really good, I just think they have a clear ceiling as currently constructed- but they also have pieces and moves to make that could make them a lot better.
   3231. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:44 AM (#5794577)
He'll help his team more if he's not constantly in foul trouble.

He's in the top 5 for PER, defensive rating, defensive win shares per basketball reference. You think he would be the best in the league if he committed one less foul per game? How does that work??
   3232. aberg Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5794586)
Wolves had another game where they got behind (57-42 late in the 2nd) and stormed back to win easily. Towns had 35-12 and absolutely abused Zeller on the right block all night. Covington spent most of the game guarding Kemba and held him to 15 points on 16 FGA. Teague made one shot but led the team in +/- with an 18/3 ast/to ratio. Wiggins had one of his better games lately. He shot 11/19, made 3 3's, and had a vicious tip dunk on his way to 26 points (plus 6 boards and 5 assists). Charlotte is a pretty sad team. They have this electric scoring guard and nobody else who can even pretend to create offense. Batum used to be a weirdo passing savant, but he doesn't look like much anymore. Lamb and Monk are at least trying to get the offense moving, though they are also overmatched against good defenders.

Wolves are 13-12 now. They were 4-9 when they traded Butler. I can't imagine what kind of odds you'd have to give me at that point for me to bet that they'd get above .500 at any point this year.
   3233. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:05 PM (#5794592)
Wolves are 13-12 now. They were 4-9 when they traded Butler. I can't imagine what kind of odds you'd have to give me at that point for me to bet that they'd get above .500 at any point this year.

And they're not nearly as miserable to watch as I had expected.
   3234. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5794594)
3232--related to above do you worry that Towns is second in the league in pfs?
   3235. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:11 PM (#5794599)
Go on...

My opinion on Philadelphia hasn't really changed much post-Butler. They aren't beating anyone good 4 times in 2 weeks as currently constructed.


Do I have to?

There may be potential there for BOS and PHI to be on the same level, but it hasn't happened yet. I understand people are still slow to accept MIL being this good, but it should be easy to see why TOR is clearly better than BOS/PHI right now.

SRS isn't the end all be all, but Philly has a lower SRS than Indy and Charlotte; Boston is at least 3rd in the east.
   3236. aberg Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5794602)
3232--related to above do you worry that Towns is second in the league in pfs?


Not a major issue, but he could clean up his offensive fouls a little. His usage is a lot higher than it was to start the year (no kidding), so even if the rate of committing offensive fouls hasn't changed, the volume has gone up. He generally does it when his first move to the basket doesn't work and he kind of panics, trying to create space by pushing off or something similar.

There is probably some overlap with Giannis in the sense that they are both big guys controlling a huge portion of their team's possessions, so there are going to be some fouls and some turnovers in there. It would be nice if he could clean it up a little, but I also don't want him to stop being aggressive offensively because that pretty much drives the whole team.
   3237. jmurph Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:19 PM (#5794608)
There may be potential there for BOS and PHI to be on the same level, but it hasn't happened yet. I understand people are still slow to accept MIL being this good, but it should be easy to see why TOR is clearly better than BOS/PHI right now.

SRS isn't the end all be all, but Philly has a lower SRS than Indy and Charlotte; Boston is at least 3rd in the east.

Oh I can't argue with the first part, I was just wondering if you saw the latter the same way I do (meaning I think the gap between Boston and Philadelphia is at least as big as the gap between the top 2 and Boston).
   3238. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5794612)
3236--It would be nice if he could clean it up a little, but I also don't want him to stop being aggressive offensively because that pretty much drives the whole team. This captures just about every Bucks fans view of Giannis. I don't know anybody who thinks his fouls are a problem. If anything they think the refs don't know how to call him when he's playing defense and assume contact a lot of times when replay shows a clean block or steal. Dude is unreal in his ability to extend and contort (stating obvious)
   3239. aberg Posted: December 06, 2018 at 12:23 PM (#5794613)
3236--It would be nice if he could clean it up a little, but I also don't want him to stop being aggressive offensively because that pretty much drives the whole team. This captures just about every Bucks fans view of Giannis. I don't know anybody who thinks his fouls are a problem. If anything they think the refs don't know how to call him when he's playing defense and assume contact a lot of times when replay shows a clean block or steal. Dude is unreal in his ability to extend and contort (stating obvious)


You could probably say it about pretty much every 7-footer who has ever been the centerpiece of his team's offense.
   3240. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5794643)
Oh I can't argue with the first part, I was just wondering if you saw the latter the same way I do (meaning I think the gap between Boston and Philadelphia is at least as big as the gap between the top 2 and Boston).

Well, there was a gap, for sure. I don't know how much it's closed with Butler. Depending one what we mean by these tiers, Philly arguably has 2 better players than Boston's best (I continue to remain a Kyrie doubter) so them going further/doing more in the playoffs wouldn't surprise me. I would put the 2 of them in the same tier though, below MIL/TOR.
   3241. aberg Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5794660)
It's hard to judge Philly right now because there's another shoe to drop. They traded two important role players for one star, which obviously left them down a man in the rotation. They weren't particularly deep to start with. Still, they have some good future assets, plus whatever Fultz is. If they cash in some of those before the deadline, or even just find the right buyout guys, it will make a big difference to their rotation. One of the reasons they aren't that great right now is that they're giving quite a few minutes to guys like Shamet, Kormaz, Muscala (and to a lesser degree, McConnell and Amir). It seems eminently reasonable that they could add one or two guys who are a big upgrade on that group, and it will make a big difference.
   3242. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5794663)
Just watched the Spurs-Lakers game from last night. The Laker offense had no problems rolling without Ingram, and x-rays came back negative for his ankle. I'm hoping the Lakers play well enough while he sits that the front office realizes they can and should move him for someone that better compliments James.
   3243. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5794668)
3241--Seems like Fultz would have a way better chance starting over someplace else but his value is nothing now, right? So no way does Philly trade him because being an overall number 1 they cannot accept getting what, a second rounder? Less?
   3244. nick swisher hygiene Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5794688)
3214–You could have gotten some very ####### long odds from Tar Heel fans on “Danny Green will have the best pro career of any members of the 2009 national champs”
   3245. Jtsports01 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5794700)
Philly could really use another player like Robert Covington
   3246. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5794704)
In the NBA, if you can trade two good players for one great player, you have to do that. But Covington+Saric was a very good haul for Butler, and a team as top-heavy as Philadelphia does feel some pain for the lost depth.

Depth matters less and star power matters more in the playoffs, but Philadelphia is SO thin beyond their top three players that it will hurt them even in the playoffs, I think. But (a) they did need a player who can create his own baskets, and Butler is that, and (b) as rr said, they need to be active around the deadline and with buyout guys to fill out an 8 man rotation. The only players on that roster beyond the big three that have any business playing serious minutes in the playoffs are Chandler, Redick, and McConnell--and the latter two are useful rotation guys but not starters. Philadelphia needs three more playable guys, and they very badly need a better backup big than Amir Johnson.

And they need a better backup big than Amir Johnson yesterday, because they really, REALLY need to ease up on Joel Embiid's workload before they break him. Their probably of reaching the Finals drops straight to 0.0% if Embiid isn't healthy in May. They need to start giving him frequent nights off and get him down to more like 28 minutes a night, not 34.

That's all with standard caveats that I'm not a doctor, and even if I was a doctor I still wouldn't have access to Embiid's current medicals, etc. But it's pretty damn common sense when your best player has that kind of medical background to take it easy in the regular season, so you can ride him hard in the postseason.
   3247. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:46 PM (#5794705)
They need to start giving him frequent nights off and get him down to more like 28 minutes a night, not 34.

28 minutes a night from your star player is a "need"? Get off my lawn.
   3248. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5794707)
If your star player has fought his way back from career-threatening foot problems, you're going to make the playoffs anyway, and you only win in the playoffs if he's healthy throughout them? Yeah. Yeah, under those circumstances I'd be aiming for under 30 minutes a night. From over here on my own lawn, of course. :)

Am I really way off base with that? This is from the perspective of a team wanting to maximize its shot at the title, not the perspective of a fan, of course. As a fan I'd rather watch as much of Joel Embiid as possible.
   3249. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5794724)
3241--Seems like Fultz would have a way better chance starting over someplace else but his value is nothing now, right? So no way does Philly trade him because being an overall number 1 they cannot accept getting what, a second rounder? Less?
D'Angelo Russell and a 2nd round pick seems fair.
   3250. Master of the Horse Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:29 PM (#5794729)
3249--Really?? Wow, that seems really generous. Russell is a not terrible player entering RFA after this season.
   3251. spivey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5794735)
Russell is only fair if he's a negative asset. Fultz is not worth a second round alone. That's basically what you can get for Fultz imo - a negative asset due to contract, but somehow who is likely better than Fultz today. Something like Fultz and a 2nd for Korver would have been good, before he was traded.
   3252. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5794739)
I don't think the Sixers are in a position to take less than that. I DO think they should move Fultz. Russell's definitely not terrible, but he's also not going to change a franchise's direction, and it's an open question as to whether the Nets even want to keep him — they didn't extend him at the deadline, and they don't even seem all that eager to offer him a QA next summer. Why not trade him for a lottery ticket?

Besides, the Sixers don't need Russell to be great, they just need him to be better than Fultz right now with their window open, and Russell is super-duper better than Fultz right now.
   3253. aberg Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:46 PM (#5794741)
That's basically what you can get for Fultz imo - a negative asset due to contract


I suspect that there are a handful of teams who see it differently and Fultz will be moved for a useful role player before the deadline (maybe this month).
   3254. there isn't anything to do in buffalo but 57i66135 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5794745)
I whispered it quietly last page, but I'll say it clearly: I think it's time for Philadelphia to move on from Brett Brown.
i don't think you do it just to do it, but...maybe. he hasn't grown as a coach as the team has grown.
3249--Really?? Wow, that seems really generous. Russell is a not terrible player entering RFA after this season.
i'd also keep an eye on dinwiddie:
Michael Scotto @MikeAScotto
Spencer Dinwiddie (@SDinwiddie_25) is eligible to sign an extension with the Brooklyn Nets on December 8, which is also the birthday of his grandmother and younger brother and his jersey number. He addressed his contract situation today. Below is his full quote in its entirety:
https://twitter.com/mikeascotto/status/1068293888153145346?s=11
My opinion on Philadelphia hasn't really changed much post-Butler. They aren't beating anyone good 4 times in 2 weeks as currently constructed.
there are a lot of areas where the sixers can upgrade, but i'm not overly optimistic that they will.
   3255. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 06, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5794750)
The one thing the Sixers absolutely do not need is an inefficient, ball dominant guard.
   3256. GregD Posted: December 06, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5794758)
Fultz is not worth a second round alone. That's basically what you can get for Fultz imo - a negative asset due to contract, but somehow who is likely better than Fultz today. Something like Fultz and a 2nd for Korver would have been good, before he was traded.
sadly I think that's right. At this point teams know that the Sixers are very unlikely to pick up the $12 million 2020-2021 option, so any team that waits a season and a half can get him without giving anything. Barring improvement, Fultz's $9.7 million will be a drag on Philly's payroll and the more you wait the less you have to give up for him. If Philly could trade him this year for an expiring contract, they'd be thrilled.
   3257. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 06, 2018 at 04:40 PM (#5794780)
Someone's ears were ringing:

Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 6m6 minutes ago

The Philadelphia 76ers held a free-agent workout this week with veteran guards Arron Afflalo, Brandon Rush and Sean Kilpatrick, along with G League Delaware’s Haywood Highsmith, per league sources on @TheAthleticNBA @WatchStadium.
   3258. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 06, 2018 at 05:24 PM (#5794807)
I.......I would rather have Fultz than Russell. /ducks
   3259. GregD Posted: December 06, 2018 at 05:47 PM (#5794818)
I.......I would rather have Fultz than Russell. /ducks
Stats slightly prefer Russell, right? But it would actually be an interesting straight trade. How much is it worth to get out of the contract a year earlier with Russell? The Sixers would gain the salary reset after this year; the Nets would take a flyer. I'd throw in a second round pick from Philly to get it done but that's because I would value the open roster spot over Fultz.
   3260. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: December 06, 2018 at 06:25 PM (#5794828)
Stats slightly prefer Russell, right? But it would actually be an interesting straight trade. How much is it worth to get out of the contract a year earlier with Russell?
I might be wrong, but I don't think costs anything to get out of Russell's contract after this season. That's part of what makes Russell so valuable (relatively speaking): he's better than Fultz right now and is actually useful to the Sixers as is. If it works out, they can offer a QA, otherwise, he doesn't have to be their problem anymore.
   3261. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: December 06, 2018 at 07:15 PM (#5794841)
I'm late to the Giannis fouls convo but really, you can't tell him to ease up on going to the rim when it looks like there's no path there, because he successfully gets to the rim in that situation all the time. If the cost of dunking from impossible situations 6 times a game is 1-2 charges, it's worth it. Especially when the alternative is him settling for a jumper.
   3262. maccoach57 Posted: December 06, 2018 at 08:21 PM (#5794869)
Minnesota: I have not been following things as closely as I generally do, and maybe the game is passing me by a little. One of my very basic beliefs about the NBA is that you almost never get better trading stars. Butler isn't Michael Jordan or anything, but I think he is a very valuable player. And Minnesota was losing with him and immediately started winning without him. The Clippers traded all their star power and are also doing very well.
Philadelphia: Tyson Chandler's impact here with the Lakers illustrates why Philly is so dangerous IMO: when you have the big pieces in place, sometimes the right role players can really help you. What Chandler does was something the Lakers seriously needed. If the 76ers can find 1 or 2 guys like that, they can be very bad news, even with the SRS and the PYTH indicators.
Oklahoma City: I find it interesting that the Westbrook/George pairing is working so well, and I find where it is happening interesting as well, although, obviously, I would prefer it be on my team, as many thought it might be. I actually get a kick out of watching Westbrook and have always liked George's game.
   3263. JC in DC Posted: December 06, 2018 at 09:02 PM (#5794874)
Noah Vonleh can play basketball. He may the legit find of these projects. Hezonja is flaming shite. Mudiay can play a little. But Vonleh does a lot of interesting stuff.
   3264. spivey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 10:21 PM (#5794880)
The Knicks are legitimately an interesting team to watch play basketball this year, which is remarkable. Vonleh and Robinson are both solid and play with a nice edge. If they could get one of the efficient high usage guys like KD or Kyrie and trim the fat on their roster, they could be good next year.
   3265. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:01 PM (#5794882)
Phoenix with its second single-digit first quarter in as many games. Oooof. It really seems like just yesterday they had that surprising good year, with a good cap sheet and lots of youth.
   3266. Booey Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:40 PM (#5794884)
So Gobert was called for a foul on the opening tip (not sure if I've ever seen that before), and then a 2nd foul on a ridiculous Harden flop a few minutes later. When Snyder had to pull him for Favors, Rudy slapped a cup from the scorers table and was ejected...3 minutes into the game.

Why yes, Gobert was fined for ripping into the refs a couple games earlier, why do you ask? The quick whistle couldn't possibly have anything to do with that, could it?
   3267. puck Posted: December 06, 2018 at 11:58 PM (#5794886)
DEN: Argument for real: Players like Murray, Jokic, and Harris are still young (I always forget how young Jokic is in particular), and they got Millsap back. Argument for fake: their improvement is basically all defense, and most of that improvement is opponent 3P% which is probably not sustainable.


I agree with a lot of 3144. With Denver, I didn't realize they have been quite *so* lucky with defensive 3pt%.


Is the issue that their 3pt% against is *so* low compared to league average? I think I've read people here say something about how defensive 3pt% is not really something teams can control...can someone say more about that? Is it sort of like what is thought about pitchers and BABIP? That there's some control, but that league-leading type rates aren't sustainable year to year?

I noticed the Celtics have been top 5 in the category for 8 years, even in the Doc Rivers days. Is that a long-standing emphasis for the organization, or maybe a park effect? Thought to people's point, they've not been .036 better than league average like the Nuggets' D has been so far this season.

One other change about the Nuggets--they're way low in pace, 27th in the league. Looks like 16th is the lowest they've been for a long time--since 1997-98 (11-71 team under Bill Hanzlick, which was 19th). I'm sure the conventional wisdom is they need to push the pace to take advantage of the altitude.
   3268. Booey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5794890)
Jazz missing Gobert. Only up 35 heading into the 4th after that 38-11 3rd quarter...
   3269. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5794891)
pull him for Favors, Rudy slapped a cup from the scorers table and was ejected...3 minutes into the game.

Why yes, Gobert was fined for ripping into the refs a couple games earlier, why do you ask? The quick whistle couldn't possibly have anything to do with that, could it?


(Rant incoming, feel free to skip)

Just as a basketball fan with no particular rooting interest, the officiating in basketball drives me nuts sometimes, particularly the way the refs will get a bee in their bonnet about a particular team or particular player and call just a preposterously biased game to teach somebody a lesson about respecting their betters.

If a player or a coach said something that crossed the line or went over the top with being a dick to a ref, then report it up the chain and ####### suspend them. Don't ruin a ####### game that thousands of people took time and money out of their lives to see. Yes, yes, I know the refs feel like that's their only option since the players' union won't stand for players getting suspended for being mean to refs. I even sympathize with that point of view, a tiny bit. But holy cow is it aggravating watching a game--and, again, this is as a person with no particular rooting interest, just a guy wanting to watch an entertaining basketball game--and realizing the refs have it in for somebody tonight.

I can't even imagine having a favorite team and having to deal with them getting screwed over a couple times a year because someone pissed off a ref. Even my team WINNING because someone on the other team pissed off a ref would feel like a bad aftertaste in my mouth.

Good on Utah for winning anyway in tonight's case, but... uuuuugggghhhhhh.
   3270. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:26 AM (#5794892)
So...what do you guys think of KD's comments about LeBron? They strike me as being a bit petty and jealous.
   3271. tshipman Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:44 AM (#5794895)
So...what do you guys think of KD's comments about LeBron? They strike me as being a bit petty and jealous.


They seemed really accurate?

"It depends on what kind of player you are," Durant said. "If you're Kyle Korver, then it makes sense. Because Kyle Korver in Atlanta was the bulk of the offense, and he's not a No. 1 option at all, not even close. So his talents benefit more from a guy who can pass and penetrate and get him open.

"If you're a younger player like a Kawhi, trying to pair him with LeBron James doesn't really make sense. Kawhi enjoys having the ball in his hands, controlling the offense, dictating the tempo with his post-ups; it's how he plays the game. A lot of young players are developing that skill. They don't need another guy."

...

"Kevin Love, he had to totally change his game to fit, to be a shooter," Durant said. "Which, I think, he deserves way more credit for switching his game. Bosh, same way. LeBron is a player that needs to play with guys that already know how they play the game—and shooters. Like, young players that are still developing, it's always going to be hard because he demands the ball so much, he demands control of the offense and he creates for everybody."

"So much hype comes from being around LeBron from other people," Durant said. "He has so many fanboys in the media. Even the beat writers just fawn over him. I'm like, we're playing basketball here, and it's not even about basketball at certain points. So I get why anyone wouldn't want to be in that environment because it's toxic. Especially when the attention is bullshit attention, fluff. It's not LeBron's fault at all; it's just the fact you have so many groupies in the media that love to hang on every word. Just get out of the way and let us play basketball."


LeBron draws a certain kind of player to him. Kyrie bristled at constantly being in the shadow.

LeBron is the most fantastic table setter in the modern NBA (and maybe of all time). But if you happen to be a pretty darn good table setter, it doesn't make you happy to stand in the corner and shoot when Bron draws the double. If you accept the challenge to change your game in order to win (Love, Bosh), it pays off in rings and banners. Some guys aren't willing to do that.

I don't think KD's comments are disrespectful. They're certainly the kind of things that people who watch basketball say all the time. Are players not allowed to comment on the game or other players?
   3272. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:51 AM (#5794896)
Yeah I also thought the KD comments were on point (and surprisingly candid, to be honest). I didn't see it as bashing LeBron at all, nowhere in there did he say LeBron's game was flawed or he should change it, and he explicitly said he wasn't to blame for the media circus aspect.
   3273. Booey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 01:17 AM (#5794897)
Always nice when your team is finally allowed to play some home games. Two game homestand against a couple teams fighting the Jazz for potential playoff spots (SAS, HOU), and two blowout wins by an average of 30 pts. Hopefully this is a turning point. Also good to see an easy win that wasn't decided just by 3-pt variance (Jazz shot just 8/32 from deep, but kicked Houston's ass across the board in pretty much everything else).

Not too competitive slate of games, tonight. Only 3 games, and with win margins of 28, 22, and 27.
   3274. maccoach57 Posted: December 07, 2018 at 01:31 AM (#5794898)
So...what do you guys think of KD's comments about LeBron? They strike me as being a bit petty and jealous


I don't really agree with either this take or shipman's. I don't think Durant is jealous or being petty, but it seemed to me like sort of a passive-aggressive tactical strike for 2019 FA: Durant pretty much said that nobody in his prime and awesome, like, say, maybe himself or Kawhi Leonard, both FAs in July 2019, should be playing with LeBron James. They won't get enough shots and touches and they will be in a "toxic" atmosphere because of media "fanboys."

I am of course biased as a Lakers fan, but while I mostly like Durant, I think some of this is just bu11####, in that having James playing with Leonard "doesn't make sense" the way having Pippen and Jordan together didn't make sense since their skills overlapped some as well. I expect that Leonard will stay in Toronto, but if he does come here and plays with James and has a USG of 25 instead of 30, it will work out just fine.
   3275. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 07, 2018 at 06:36 AM (#5794902)
I don't think Durant is jealous or being petty, but it seemed to me like sort of a passive-aggressive tactical strike for 2019 FA: Durant pretty much said that nobody in his prime and awesome, like, say, maybe himself or Kawhi Leonard, both FAs in July 2019, should be playing with LeBron James. They won't get enough shots and touches and they will be in a "toxic" atmosphere because of media "fanboys."

This is how I took it as well. Also, if we switch "LeBron" to "Steph" it's a great explanation for my least favorite great player leaving GSW.
   3276. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:54 AM (#5794936)
That first Gobert foul, I don't know. That's the kind of thing that maybe needs to get a ref suspended.
   3277. spivey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 09:57 AM (#5794938)
KD's comments I think were pretty on point, and he's always been a very thoughtful, honest person. But I wonder if there really is a spot he'd be truly happy. It seems like that's why he went to Golden State, and he's padding his HOF resume and winning titles, so maybe he is. But he seems to have a bit of "grass is greener on the otherside" mentality. I do get the sense a lot of stars, especially the younger ones from the post-LeBron wave, don't really want to play with LeBron. This year's FA will be interesting.

The ball handling thing I don't feel like is *that* unique to LeBron. It's most unique to him, Harden, and Westbrooke because of just how much they hold the ball, but there was plenty of time for Wade to still get his super high usage with the Heatles. Golden State is as with everything unique, because of how good their best players are moving off of the ball, and at shooting. Klay, Steph, and Draymond have different strengths (and weaknesses) than most other all-stars.
   3278. spivey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5794946)
Also, I'm pretty excited about Golden State/Milwaukee round two. Milwaukee has generally played very well against other good teams, but they beat Golden State and Toronto without Curry and Kawhi, respectively. This will be a fun challenge.
   3279. NJ in NY (Now with Toddler!) Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:50 AM (#5794962)
   3280. jmurph Posted: December 07, 2018 at 10:52 AM (#5794963)
Michael Pina @MichaelVPina
The Celtics are 5-2 when Gordon Hayward comes off the bench. Since his first game doing so, they have the NBA’s best offense and are 3rd in net rating.

Kindly avoid looking at their schedule over this stretch and just BASK IN THE GLORY.
   3281. PreservedFish Posted: December 07, 2018 at 11:17 AM (#5794976)
Question for you gents. I recall that a few years ago there was a D-league team running a highly experimental offense where they shot like 95% 3-pointers, and did some other wacky ####. Are there any teams that are practicing such weirdness right now?
   3282. Booey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5794987)
That first Gobert foul, I don't know. That's the kind of thing that maybe needs to get a ref suspended.


Exactly. If Gobert did anything at all (and I don't think he did), that would just be a jump ball violation, and possession to the Rockets. I knew it wasn't just my bias talking when Shaq, Charles, and Kenny were talking about how ridiculous it was and saying that in all their years in the NBA, they've never seen a foul on a jump ball like that before.

That was a deliberate message from the official - in the form of a middle finger - to a player who had recently been in the news for criticizing them.


Edit: Whatever, though. The Jazz won anyway. As long as whatever the hell that was is over, I guess it ended up being a "no harm, no foul" type of incident. The league should still investigate things like that, though, IMO.
   3283. spivey Posted: December 07, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5794991)
Is the issue that their 3pt% against is *so* low compared to league average? I think I've read people here say something about how defensive 3pt% is not really something teams can control...can someone say more about that? Is it sort of like what is thought about pitchers and BABIP? That there's some control, but that league-leading type rates aren't sustainable year to year?


Correct. If you look at opponents 3pt% year to year for teams, it's almost all noise - 3pt defense is pretty much about prevention of shots. Boston's run has come up here a bit in terms of are they able to affect it. I think there may be some skill with defending 3pt%, but I think it is very hard to parse out because it's mostly luck. My take is Boston has just had a good run - statistically there is likely to be a team or two that has the run they did (I think, I haven't really run those numbers), but that doesn't mean it actually has predictive power.

As for Denver's slow pace, it's absolutely the right way for them to play. They're not a quick team at all. Their guards are reasonably athletic, but are more athletic in a long/strong way than explosive speed. Jokic isn't the most conditioned athlete in the world and has actually post-up/high post skills that take time, and their starting front line has included both Millsap and Hernangomez at the forward spots for much of the year.
   3284. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 07, 2018 at 11:45 AM (#5795004)
Obviously someone has done this, but is the composition of the shots that opponents take against the Celtics different than that of the league overall? IOW, are they good at chasing players off of easier shots?
   3285. tshipman Posted: December 07, 2018 at 11:50 AM (#5795009)
Exactly. If Gobert did anything at all (and I don't think he did), that would just be a jump ball violation, and possession to the Rockets. I knew it wasn't just my bias talking when Shaq, Charles, and Kenny were talking about how ridiculous it was and saying that in all their years in the NBA, they've never seen a foul on a jump ball like that before.

That was a deliberate message from the official - in the form of a middle finger - to a player who had recently been in the news for criticizing them.


You're kind of overreacting. The first foul was bogus, but he earned the second one, and he was always going to get ejected for the water cup thing.

So yeah, bad job on the refs by giving him a nonexistent foul. But that was all that they did.

Obviously someone has done this, but is the composition of the shots that opponents take against the Celtics different than that of the league overall? IOW, are they good at chasing players off of easier shots?


No. We've had a lot of conversation about this. Boston has consistently had opposing teams hit a much lower percentage on wide open 3s than the rest of the league. There are various just-so stories out there to explain it, but none of them address how Boston gets teams to hit a bad percentage on wide open looks.
   3286. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5795054)
You're kind of overreacting. The first foul was bogus, but he earned the second one, and he was always going to get ejected for the water cup thing.

He was really only talking about the first one. Still, the 2nd foul was between 50% and 75% flop by Harden. Also, he's still a human and it sure appears like the refs were baiting him. So yeah, he earned the ejection with the fit, but that really I don't think is the complaint here.
   3287. aberg Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5795056)
In light of the conversations about Philly's offense from earlier in the week, I was thinking about how they could use their three stars differently. While it wouldn't really work in a 3pt-driven NBA, their personnel would have been a really fun fit for a triangle offense 15-20 years ago. Embiid can obviously anchor from the post. Butler can be the scorer/initiator from the elbow. Reddick is great at moving without the ball and finding open spots. Simmons would be deadly as a cutter and secondary playmaker. Although you would have to adjust the system pretty substantially to create more space against modern defenses and avoid the huge 3pt deficiency, there might be some principles there that would help them keep the ball moving without crazy TO numbers.

Also, Landry Shamet in the Sasha Vujacic role amuses me.
   3288. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5795057)
LeBron​ James​ would like​ to​ get Carmelo​ Anthony​ to​ Los​ Angeles​ with him on the​​ Lakers, league sources have told The Athletic.

Anthony, 34, is estranged from the Houston Rockets – still on their payroll for the league-minimum $2.4 million but gone from the team after the two sides decided he was not a fit after just 10 games. He can’t be traded until at least Dec. 15, and sources said there had been no request made by James to Lakers president Magic Johnson or general manager Rob Pelinka to make a deal for his friend. Nor would there be.

But James and his camp still believe Anthony can play, that there could be a place for him as a contributor on a Lakers’ team that is young and continues to battle injuries. Brandon Ingram is the latest casualty. His sprained left ankle will keep him for at least the next two games.

And, broadly speaking, James does not want to see Anthony’s career end either with the Houston divorce or the 10-time All-Star playing out the string in this season in a market where he doesn’t want to be.
   3289. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5795058)
It was quite clear the refs had decided before the game began to make a point with Gobert. They were always going to run him out of the game, regardless of whether it was over a slapped cup or something else.
   3290. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5795060)
Anthony Slater @anthonyVslater 4m4 minutes ago

Warriors announce Damian Jones had surgery for torn pectoral. Rehab for it begins in six weeks.
   3291. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: December 07, 2018 at 12:59 PM (#5795068)
good pelton article (3279/nj in ny)
   3292. Master of the Horse Posted: December 07, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5795093)
3261--totally agree. I think what makes Giannis Giannis is him having the ball and thinking, #### there are only 3 defenders between me and the hoop this is totally easy, then his assault begins.
   3293. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5795108)
3261--totally agree. I think what makes Giannis Giannis is him having the ball and thinking, #### there are only 3 defenders between me and the hoop this is totally easy, then his assault begins.

I love the idea that Giannis views three defenders between him and the basket as an opportunity to attack, not to pass.
   3294. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5795112)
Except that Giannis is also a willing and terrific passer! He's a joy to behold.
   3295. Master of the Horse Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5795113)
3293--Totally
   3296. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5795116)
none of them address how Boston gets teams to hit a bad percentage on wide open looks.


Leprachauns
   3297. It's TFTIO's Monster, Actually Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5795120)
Except that Giannis is also a willing and terrific passer! He's a joy to behold.

He is perhaps my favourite current player to watch. And I love that he plays for the Bucks.
   3298. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:35 PM (#5795124)
none of them address how Boston gets teams to hit a bad percentage on wide open looks.

What? There absolutely are just-so stories that explain it, you just enjoy dismissing them. All of them rely on the fact that Boston closes out on 3pt shooters more aggressively than almost every team, to the point of risking fouls, and have since the Doc years (I think Thibodeau was responsible for initially championing that approach, which was bold as hell in '08, when fouling jump shooters was still a cardinal sin). Whether or not you buy the explanation, it's hardly a stretch to conclude that a jump shot that is classified as "open" may have been rushed because Avery Bradley is sprinting out with his hand up; or slightly altered because Jaylen Brown skied as high as he could to alter the shot even though a SportVU camera pegged him as 7' or 8' away at the time of the shot.

Again, I'm not exactly endorsing this narrative, because there's too much statistical noise to be certain about any such signal. Buying into it fully would be just as obtuse as that dead confident dismissal.
   3299. JL72 Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5795127)
He was really only talking about the first one. Still, the 2nd foul was between 50% and 75% flop by Harden. Also, he's still a human and it sure appears like the refs were baiting him. So yeah, he earned the ejection with the fit, but that really I don't think is the complaint here.


But does he hit the water if he doesn't get that first foul? I doubt it.

Gobart was pissed because he got both a completely BS foul that is never made and a second foul that probably should not have been called. He never reacts to that second call without the first one occurring.
   3300. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: December 07, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5795128)
Anyway, that dead horse has been beaten many times. More talk about Giannis, whose full-extension dunks look like honest to god Monstar highlights.
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