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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6195 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1701. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5842407)
I think there are at least two potential paths for Simmons:

Rich man's Draymond: Simmons leans into the defensive potential he's shown. Becomes an all world switch defender that focuses on providing elite help defense in the interior, rather than perimeter defense (which is less valuable).

Poor man's Giannis: Simmons is surrounded by shooters, and focuses on getting to the basket or dishing.

Both of these players are potentially championship players.
seriously.

there is a very good chance that ben simmons will be in his prime for the next decade. give him some time to develop the killer instincts that lebron didn't get until his mid-20s, that durant didn't get until his mid-20s, that sam bowie didn't get until his mid-20s.


embiid's body is a ticking clock, which exacerbates some of the urgency for the sixers w/r/t simmons, but simmons himself, has plenty of time to figure things out.
   1702. tshipman Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5842408)
What is the lineup made better with Ben Simmons compared to average point guard X?


Simmons + Shooters is a pretty darn good lineup.

Look at last year:
M. Belinelli | R. Covington | A. Johnson | D. Saric | B. Simmons--this lineup was +32 points per 100 possessions.

Simmons is providing like 90% of the shot creation in that lineup and it works well.
   1703. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5842409)
animosity


If you mean me, no. "Animosity" is way too strong a word. Since the Lakers didn't get Williamson, I don't care much where he goes, and frankly, it is conceivable that Williamson in NO might help the Lakers to get Davis. But one thing I personally look at is how many times the team in question has won the lottery, especially when there is a no-doubt guy at the top. New Orleans just won it seven years ago--with a no-doubt guy at the top. New York hasn't had the #1 pick since 1985, and Atlanta has not had it since 1975. They took David Thompson, who ofc signed with the ABA Nuggets. Cleveland as we all know has had the #1 pick four times since 2003 and Phoenix had it in 2018 (first time ever for PHX to have it BTW).

Another thing for me is organizational history. Chicago had Jordan and picked #1 in 1999 and 2008. The Lakers are the Lakers, even though they have the worst record in the league over the last six years. The Knicks are a different thing than those teams.
   1704. Booey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5842414)
someone like tobias harris can replace favors.

sign a shooter that you can bring off the bench, someone like jj redick.


The Jazz won't be able to sign either of those guys, cuz the Sixers are going to cap themselves out keeping both of them in Philly. ;-)
   1705. jmurph Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5842419)
The NBA is expected to move up the start of its annual moratorium from midnight ET on July 1 to 6 p.m. on June 30, sources told ESPN, with plans to implement the new timing for this year's free-agency period.

Excellent news for the old/non-West Coasters among us.
   1706. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5842421)
The Jazz won't be able to sign either of those guys, cuz the Sixers are going to cap themselves out keeping both of them in Philly. ;-)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ok85BmPyl_I
   1707. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5842425)
michael jordan didn't win a playoff series until he was 24.
Michael Jordan didn't have two All-NBA teammates beside him, and wasn't terrified to pull up from 15 feet.
   1708. aberg Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5842436)
I think there are at least two potential paths for Simmons:

Rich man's Draymond: Simmons leans into the defensive potential he's shown. Becomes an all world switch defender that focuses on providing elite help defense in the interior, rather than perimeter defense (which is less valuable).

Poor man's Giannis: Simmons is surrounded by shooters, and focuses on getting to the basket or dishing.

Both of these players are potentially championship players.


This sounds reasonable. I think your takes on Simmons sound about right, and I consider myself fairly high on him. I think Ball and 4 for Simmons is a decent deal for LAL if they miss on Davis, but that probably depends on how much you still like Ball.
   1709. jmurph Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5842437)
I think Ball and 4 for Simmons is a decent deal for LAL if they miss on Davis, but that probably depends on how much you still like Ball.

Despite (clearly) not being a believer in Simmons, I think this is much too light given what we are being told about this draft.
   1710. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5842439)
there is a very good chance that ben simmons will be in his prime for the next decade. give him some time to develop the killer instincts that lebron didn't get until his mid-20s, that durant didn't get until his mid-20s, that sam bowie didn't get until his mid-20s.
This is the part of the narrative, the lack of a "killer instinct," is what I find unfair. I don't think Simmons has some personality deficiency where he doesn't wanna win, I think he can't shoot. Nothing ever stopped Jordan or James or Durant from shooting, even when they were young and below-average shooters. What makes me doubt Simmons isn't that he's a bad shooter, it's that he's a non-shooter.

I could see how he could win a ring Rondo-style, with three other great, great teammates doing the scoring work for him and letting him do just the stuff he's really good at (which is a lot).

Sam Bowie was a weird inclusion.
   1711. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5842440)
think Ball and 4 for Simmons is a decent deal for LAL if they miss on Davis,


I would probably do that. Simmons is a weird player, like Ball, but he is actually good, unlike Ball (and I still like Ball). I would also take a look at Ball/Ingram and the 4 for Beal, depending ofc on FA.
   1712. jmurph Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5842442)
I would also take a look at Ball/Ingram and the 4 for Beal, depending ofc on FA.

I've been hoping the Celtics take a run at Beal assuming they miss out on Davis. But I guess it's possible that Washington wouldn't trade him there? They still haven't hired a GM yet, no idea what direction they'll go.
   1713. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:54 PM (#5842445)
In the season in which Giannis shattered the unassisted dunks record, his average FGA (7.7 ft) was from almost twice as far as Simmons' (4.1). Simmons is in a world of his own and I don't think you can easily compare him to Giannis (or anyone else) if you're attempting to think about ways to make him more effective given his limitations.
   1714. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 15, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5842447)
But I guess it's possible that Washington wouldn't trade him there?


Maybe, but I kind of doubt it if they are pushing the re-set button. I think they would trade him to Boston.
   1715. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5842460)
Quick FYI: This thread is now literally more than ten years old and the 10-12 Primates line has endured:

Sunday, May 03, 2009
NBA Playoffs Thread
I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA Playoffs, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the Duke Lacrosse case and Pavement’s discography.

rr Posted: May 03, 2009 at 06:34 PM | 21164 comment(s) | Bookmark
Tags: general


   1716. jmurph Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5842463)
In the season in which Giannis shattered the unassisted dunks record, his average FGA (7.7 ft) was from almost twice as far as Simmons' (4.1). Simmons is in a world of his own and I don't think you can easily compare him to Giannis (or anyone else) if you're attempting to think about ways to make him more effective given his limitations.

In his second season, Giannis took 211 shots from 16+. Simmons took 25.

EDIT: If you go down to 10 feet+ it's only 105 for Simmons, 267 for Giannis.
   1717. tshipman Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5842478)
Quick FYI: This thread is now literally more than ten years old and the 10-12 Primates line has endured:


It's a classic line.
   1718. Rally Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5842484)
Maybe, but I kind of doubt it if they are pushing the re-set button. I think they would trade him to Boston.


I sure hope not. They'll wind up with crap and give Danny Ainge more draft picks on top of it.
   1719. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 15, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5842495)
[1715] That's amazing. I remember coming here during 1L Finals back in Spring '09. Gods, we were young then!
   1720. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5842504)
Rodger Sherman @rodger
New Orleans has won 21 more regular season games than the Knicks since 2000 (643 to 622) despite not having existed until the 2002-2003 season

...
...
...
Rodger Sherman @rodger
the Pelicans are 92 games under .500 over this span, the Knicks are just very very bad
   1721. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:17 PM (#5842514)
If you mean me, no. "Animosity" is way too strong a word.

No, I didn't mean you.
   1722. aberg Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:19 PM (#5842516)
Sunday, May 03, 2009
NBA Playoffs Thread
I estimate that only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA Playoffs, but with our own thread, we won’t detract from what this site is really about: the Duke Lacrosse case and Pavement’s discography.

rr Posted: May 03, 2009 at 06:34 PM | 21164 comment(s) | Bookmark
Tags: general


Way back before rr was drool-soaked and paralytic.

I think the thing I remember most about the 09 Playoffs were those Lebron-Kobe puppet commercials that Nike had to quickly regret running when the Magic knocked the Cavs out.
   1723. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5842524)
I think the thing I remember most about the 09 Playoffs were those Lebron-Kobe puppet commercials that Nike had to quickly regret running when the Magic knocked the Cavs out.

The Celtics-Bulls series.
   1724. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5842527)
I would probably do that. Simmons is a weird player, like Ball, but he is actually good, unlike Ball (and I still like Ball).

to offer a take on the sixers side of this deal:

ball has a nearly identical skillset to simmons, which means the sixers wouldn't need to change a lot of their offensive sets or defensive principles.

simmons has the advantage in scoring efficiency, usage rate, rebounding, defensive versatility and free throw percentage.
ball is willing to shoot 3s from any distance and has an extra year of control on his contract.

that #4 overall pick would be deandre hunter, jarrett culver, darius garland, koby white or sekou doumbouya. 2 of those guys are basically mikal bridges clones. white is a poor man's SGA. doumbouya is a rich man's bruno caboclo. garland is...who the hell knows.

@DraftExpress
UCF's Tacko Fall official measurements at the NBA Combine: 7'5 1/4 without shoes, 7'7 with shoes, 289 pounds, 8'2 1/4 wingspan, 10'2 1/2 standing reach, 6.8% body fat. Tacko just broke every figure in our database for height, wingspan and reach, dating back to the 80s.
   1725. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5842529)
The Celtics-Bulls series.

Yeah, that was one of the best - though obviously and ultimately meaningless - first round series of all time. It had a ton of quite memorable moments.
   1726. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 06:28 PM (#5842549)
Fresh off his quickly proven wrong Brett Brown story:

Marc Stein @TheSteinLine 11m11 minutes ago

The Pelicans insist they are going to keep trying to convince Anthony Davis to stay. Zion Williamson has yet to sign with an NBA agent to theoretically leave open the possibility he returns to school. The Leverage Playoffs are underway, too


I mean, that would be fascinating to see someone try and force their way to a preferred destination. I know it's happened before, but it seems like it's been a while since this happened (anyone since Steve Francis?). For the record, even though I didn't like NO getting Zion, I am definitely not rooting for this. Further, I think this reads as pure speculation rather than him floating something as a favor for someone.
   1727. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 15, 2019 at 07:22 PM (#5842561)
I kind of hate the draft, but I also sort of hate the idea of a pure market for talent, without some other mechanism to try and equalize opportunity.
   1728. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 15, 2019 at 07:28 PM (#5842563)
rubio is a free agent.
favors is easily tradeable.

simmons replaces rubio.


Ok, if Jazz are getting Simmons without giving up Rudy or Donovan, I'll take him.

Favors' contract is non-guaranteed anyway, so they wouldn't even have to trade him.
   1729. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 15, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5842577)
I am rooting for the Barneys here, but I can't hate on the Hated Milwaukees.
   1730. Tin Angel Posted: May 15, 2019 at 09:31 PM (#5842585)
I am rooting for the Barneys here, but I can't hate on the Hated Milwaukees.


Actually, it's pronounced "mill-e-wah-que" which is Algonquin for "the good land."
   1731. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:00 PM (#5842592)
One of these teams looks gassed, and weirdly, it's not the Barneys?
   1732. Booey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:11 PM (#5842597)
#1730 - I was not aware of that...

I think one of the most interesting aspects of Milwaukee is the fact that it's the only major American city to have elected 3 Socialist mayors!
   1733. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5842598)
Also, "Splash Mountain" is like top 1% of NBA nicknames. It almost makes up for "Greek Freak".
   1734. Booey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5842599)
Everything I know about Milwaukee I learned from Alice Cooper...
   1735. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:31 PM (#5842604)
Milwaukee is something like +19 when I watch with this game.
   1736. spivey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5842606)
Basketball! Would be a great win to pull out while getting 3 point varianced.

Also this commercial with the lady laughing is awful. Listening to a stranger uncontrollably laugh is a ring of hell.
   1737. spivey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:36 PM (#5842608)
I didn’t think Lowry had this in him.

Milwaukee is sloppy the last few possessions.
   1738. aberg Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:43 PM (#5842610)
It's fun to finally see Lowry having a huge playoff game.
   1739. aberg Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:45 PM (#5842611)
This game is just fun all around. Lopez making shots. Middleton fighting through screens like crazy. Siakam asserting himself. Great entertainment.
   1740. puck Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:49 PM (#5842613)
Good game but boy Toronto got cold at the end. Gives me flashbacks to the Nuggets series.
   1741. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:50 PM (#5842615)
Phenomenal game.
   1742. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:52 PM (#5842616)
i think this is my preferred "not-entirely-unrealistic" blueprint for the sixers offseason:

butler opts in.
sixers renounce everything else, freeing up 40MM in cap room.
draft bruno fernando
sign patrick beverley for 3/50
sign thad young for 3/30
sign tyreke evans for 3/20
sign trevor ariza for 3/20
sign mike scott for 3/15
nerlens noel for 2/9
sign james ennis for 2/4


(age in parentheses)
PG: simmons (23) -- tyreke (30)
SG: beverley (31) -- ennis (29) / zhaire
SF: butler (30) -- ariza (34)
PF: thad (31) -- scott (31)
C: embiid (25) -- noel (25) / bolden / fernando

beverley addresses one of the sixers' biggest defensive weaknesses: the inability to defend shifty/quick perimeter initiators.
thad young addresses the sixers' other notable defensive weakness: defending the pick and roll.
of course, nerlens noel addresses the sixers' biggest overall weakness: embiid insurance.


a few lineups to look forward to:
beverley/zhaire/butler/thad/noel -- the amount of defensive pressure that this lineup could apply is really fun to imagine.
simmons/butler/ariza/thad/noel -- switch everything. always. forever.
tyreke/butler/ennis/scott/embiid -- 5 out.
simmons/zhaire/scott/noel/embiid -- 5 in.
beverley/tyreke/butler/simmons/thad -- maximum dribble/drive.
zhaire/ennis/ariza/scott/noel -- minimum dribble/drive.


just to be clear, i know that is not a championship caliber team. however, i think they would only be one trade (or one draft pick) away from being a championship caliber team.
   1743. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:53 PM (#5842617)
Siakam asserting himself
6/20 from the field.
   1744. aberg Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:54 PM (#5842618)
I don't think Toronto can win sending this many guys at Giannis. Milwaukee has too many shooters and he's good at finding the right guy. I'd rather send a specific help guy at him depending on who you're willing to take your chances with. I might send Green off of bledsoe and try to recover on him when he gets the pass. Giving Giannis his pick of the teammates just makes it too easy for him.
   1745. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5842620)
Bucks now 4-1 in the playoffs after trailing by double-digits.

For context, the league, as a whole, had a winning % of .230 in the regular season after trailing by 10+. No team had a winning record. MIL was best at 17-19.
   1746. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:04 PM (#5842624)
About that running out of gas:

Lowry was the only Raptor to make a field goal in the 4th. His teammates shot 0/15
   1747. spivey Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:11 PM (#5842628)
Kawhi did not have a good 4th quarter. Of course, that can happen.

Middleton and Giannis didn't really either, though Middleton hit a huge 3 with about 7 minutes left. This is really a testament to how good the others on Milwaukee are. Brogdon being back is amazing!
   1748. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:27 PM (#5842633)
Kawhi mainly got loose when Brogdon was guarding him in the third-- otherwise, Middleton did a great job of making him work for it. And on the flip side, I think the Bucks are content for Middleton to lay back with Kawhi guarding him, let him pick his spots a little bit.
   1749. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 15, 2019 at 11:29 PM (#5842634)
Pascal is 27-76 (35.5%) from the field and 6-28 (21.4%) from three in the five games since he got hurt, fwiw. Not sure why he keeps gunning.
   1750. mike f Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:10 AM (#5842653)
Kawhi also played 42 minutes and looked to me like he was out of gas in the 4th.
   1751. nick swisher hygiene Posted: May 16, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5842663)
34 yr old Marc Gasol played 40 minutes, and looked the same to me...
   1752. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 09:48 AM (#5842673)
It sure doesn't seem like Toronto has a lot of places to get points from after some of their trades, but they were pretty even in their splits before and after the ASB, and had the 5th ranked offense. Danny Green couldn't make a shot, and will keep shooting. But a lot of those guys look kind of afraid to shoot, even when they are shooting.
   1753. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5842677)
Not an original thought but that was really a lost opportunity for Toronto. It felt a lot like game 1 of Bucks-Celtics to me, but Milwaukee somehow still pulled this one out.
   1754. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:01 AM (#5842681)
I mentioned I thought Milwaukee would win with relative ease in this series. That still may not happen, it's one game. I also think if Kawhi starts guarding Giannis things could get interesting, though then you risk him getting in foul trouble or not being able to carry the same offensive load. And their defense was mostly good, though a lot of the Bucks 3s were wide open.

But, yeah, I think Milwaukee is more likely to sweep than lose this series.
   1755. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:02 AM (#5842683)
I'm fascinated by Bud's insistence on not riding his best guys during the playoffs. 10 games in and Middleton leads the team at 33 MPG.

EDIT: What I'm really trying to say is these guys are kicking ass and they could be playing better. They. Are. Inevitable.
   1756. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5842689)
I'm fascinated by Bud's insistence on not riding his best guys during the playoffs. 10 games in and Middleton leads the team at 33 MPG.


This is my biggest worry against Golden State (assuming they make it that far). Ersan and Lopez will need very, very quick hooks. I'd actually be tempted to play DJ Wilson over Ersan because he's more switchable. I think the rotation will need to be seriously tightened there. In the Eastern Conference, that is less of a concern because of how the teams are built.
   1757. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:08 AM (#5842691)
I'm fascinated by Bud's insistence on not riding his best guys during the playoffs. 10 games in and Middleton leads the team at 33 MPG.

Hard to argue with the results so far! But yeah, makes you wonder if they'll change it up against Golden State.
   1758. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:11 AM (#5842693)
Jeff Duncan @JeffDuncan_ 51m51 minutes ago

Zion Williamson’s step-father, Lee Anderson, says on the Off the Bench radio show in Baton Rouge that Zion is "excited about the prospect of getting down there and getting settled” in New Orleans & added that returning to Duke “is not something that we have even considered."


Stein tumbling down the credibility scale.
   1759. Rally Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:13 AM (#5842694)
sign patrick beverley for 3/50


That seems shocking to me. Beverley has never made more than 6.5 million in any season, and will be 31 years old. I realize that he contributes in ways that would not have been rewarded 20 years ago as a perfect 3 and D player. But has the league's valuation of him changed so much in the last few years to justify tripling his salary?

True that he has improved his 3 point shooting, almost 40% over the last 4 years. Maybe he's worth 17 million if he keeps doing what he's been doing recently. But even if so, at age 31 there's a good chance you won't be getting the same production he gave teams from 27-30.

   1760. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:15 AM (#5842695)
That seems shocking to me. Beverley has never made more than 6.5 million in any season, and will be 31 years old.

stiggles contract ideas are always nuts, he wants to give everyone 3 years when half those guys are going to sign for 1.
   1761. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5842696)
Dan Devine @YourManDevine
Tracking numbers weren't up until after I filed, but confirm the eye test: Giannis finished with 6 assists, but *18* potential assists. https://stats.nba.com/players/passing/?Season=2018-19&SeasonType=Playoffs&LastNGames=1&PerMode=Totals&sort=POTENTIAL_AST&dir=1 …

He's pounding the paint + creating clean drive-and-kick looks. If Bledsoe/Mirotic weren't frigid, might've been a rout.

Totally fair point, but also Bledsoe isn't a good shooter and Mirotic is just fine, despite his Curry-esque confidence. Games like that are going to happen.
   1762. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5842700)
And a point in the other direction:
Ben Falk @bencfalk
The Bucks ranked 26th during the regular season in offensive rebounding.

Last night they boarded 1 out of every 3 of their misses, their 9th highest offensive rebounding rate out of their 91 games played this season.

Felt like Lopez just routinely embarrassed Gasol on the offensive glass.
   1763. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5842709)
There was never any way Zion was going back to Duke. He was going to put a hundred million dollars on hold because he didn't like Nawlins? Bwahahahahaha!
   1764. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:49 AM (#5842721)
There was never any way Zion was going back to Duke. He was going to put a hundred million dollars on hold because he didn't like Nawlins? Bwahahahahaha!

No, but to Moses's point upthread, it does seem like we might be due for another Steve Francis situation at some point.
   1765. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5842726)
No, but to Moses's point upthread, it does seem like we might be due for another Steve Francis situation at some point.


I'm going to laugh really hard if this ends up being Cam Reddish (I don't see why it would, mind you, but it would be funny).
   1766. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5842730)
No, but to Moses's point upthread, it does seem like we might be due for another Steve Francis situation at some point.

It's possible, but I'd be surprised. There's just not great alternatives for incoming NBA players. They can make good money in China and Europe, but not as much as in the NBA and if they go overseas they delay the start of the clock on their free agency.
   1767. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5842740)
stiggles contract ideas are always nuts, he wants to give everyone 3 years when half those guys are going to sign for 1.
if you think the contract terms are too high, that's fine. it means there may be a chance the whole scenario is entirely implausible.

fwiw, i didn't go through a detailed economic analysis of the current market forces, but 3/50 for beverley is in line with the contracts that george hill, jeff teague, ricky rubio, reggie jackson, dennis schroder and marcus smart have all played under for the last few years.

   1768. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:06 AM (#5842746)
When Beverley was on The Starters a couple weeks ago he said this is the first time he has been a free agent so he is looking forward to it. Clearly signing with the Rockets as a total unknown and then signing an extension with them instead of waiting for free agency has led to him being underpaid. Maybe he is worth $3/50.
   1769. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:08 AM (#5842749)
It's possible, but I'd be surprised. There's just not great alternatives for incoming NBA players. They can make good money in China and Europe, but not as much as in the NBA and if they go overseas they delay the start of the clock on their free agency.

That's not the play, it's: get drafted but refuse to play for that team.
   1770. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:13 AM (#5842753)
Maybe he is worth $3/50.

I doubt he'll get that kind of annual salary, but if he does, I think it would be just a one year deal (like Reddick got a couple years ago, or Ariza last year).

Also if someone is giving Trevor Ariza three years they should be escorted out of the building. Ditto Mike Scott.
   1771. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:16 AM (#5842756)
Tracking numbers weren't up until after I filed, but confirm the eye test: Giannis finished with 6 assists, but *18* potential assists.

Maybe this is something that people who pay more attention to the NBA, and NBA advanced stats know instinctively, but that number feels completely useless without context.

It sort of feels like it is implying that he should have had 12 more assists. 'Potential' and 'expected' are not the same thing. So without knowing what the normal ratio of actual assists to potential assists is. If we are talking about a lot of potential assists to 3P shooters, then maybe the number is around 40%? In which case 6 of 18 is close to a rounding error. If it's mostly assists to layups and wide open shots, maybe it's like 60%, which would be fairly significant. Is there any chance it should be higher than that?
   1772. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5842763)
Tracking numbers weren't up until after I filed, but confirm the eye test: Giannis finished with 6 assists, but *18* potential assists.

A thought I had while watching last night's game: Man, LeBron is truly in another world when it comes to accurately/creatively hitting his shooters and boy does he do it with a lot more zip. Not meant to take away from Giannis, but moreso an appreciation for The King, may he rest in peace.
   1773. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5842764)
I doubt he'll get that kind of annual salary, but if he does, I think it would be just a one year deal (like Reddick got a couple years ago, or Ariza last year).
the amount of cap space available this summer is orders of magnitude greater than the amount available last summer.
Also if someone is giving Trevor Ariza three years they should be escorted out of the building. Ditto Mike Scott.
in fairness, w/r/t both of contracts, the 3rd year would be a team option.
   1774. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5842766)
it means there may be a chance the whole scenario is entirely implausible.

You posted it; by definition, it is entirely implausible.

For instance, what is Jimmy's incentive to opt in and not get the guaranteed money now? See your first comment in post 1773.
   1775. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:27 AM (#5842767)
in fairness, w/r/t both of contracts, the 3rd year would be a team option.

I think we went through this with Noel et al last year, too! I just don't think it will be necessary to give these kinds of guys multiple years.
   1776. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:28 AM (#5842769)
For instance, what is Jimmy's incentive to opt in and not get the guaranteed money now? See your first comment in post 1773.

Yeah this is obviously Butler's last big contract, he's got to get the 4 or 5 years locked in now.
   1777. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:32 AM (#5842770)
the amount of cap space available this summer is orders of magnitude greater than the amount available last summer.

Nitpick: no, it is not.
   1778. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5842773)
For instance, what is Jimmy's incentive to opt in and not get the guaranteed money now? See your first comment in post 1773.

butler enjoys playing in philadelphia.
opting in gives butler the best chance of contending for a title while he gets to continue playing in philadelphia.
it would earn him even more good will from a city that is already head over heels in love with him.

but most importantly:
butler would opt in because he trusts elton brand to take care of him on the back end, when the sixers will be capped from extending simmons and signing all of these multi-year contracts.
   1779. Booey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5842774)
There was never any way Zion was going back to Duke. He was going to put a hundred million dollars on hold because he didn't like Nawlins? Bwahahahahaha!


No, but to Moses's point upthread, it does seem like we might be due for another Steve Francis situation at some point.


Isn't it possible though - maybe even probable - that if say, the Knicks or Lakers had ended up with the #1 pick instead, they were just going to use it as the centerpiece of their Anthony Davis trade package? IOW, there's a decent chance that Zion was going to end up in New Orleans anyway.
   1780. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:45 AM (#5842781)
Isn't it possible though - maybe even probable - that if say, the Knicks or Lakers had ended up with the #1 pick instead, they were just going to use it as the centerpiece of their Anthony Davis trade package? IOW, there's a decent chance that Zion was going to end up in New Orleans anyway.

Yeah for the record there is no reason to think Zion is going to do this. It's just a thought- it's been a long time since it happened, but who knows, maybe it won't happen again.
   1781. JJ1986 Posted: May 16, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5842791)
If I were dreaming about Butler opting in, I'd be dreaming about adding Klay Thompson or Khris Middleton, not a random collection of 6th-9th men. And getting at least one decent backup center.
   1782. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 16, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5842792)
I think Jimmy Butler should sign with the Warriors because the Dubs need wing depth on the bench. He can have the DeMarcus Cousins memorial mid-level exception and all the stock tips from Andre Iguodala he can handle.
   1783. Booey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5842793)
It just struck me that Zion was born in 2000.

Damn, we're old...
   1784. jmurph Posted: May 16, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5842823)
It just struck me that Zion was born in 2000.

Damn, we're old...

Speak for yourself man, I'm the picture of youth as long as I take my gummy fiber.
   1785. Rally Posted: May 16, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5842828)
It sort of feels like it is implying that he should have had 12 more assists. 'Potential' and 'expected' are not the same thing. So without knowing what the normal ratio of actual assists to potential assists is. If we are talking about a lot of potential assists to 3P shooters, then maybe the number is around 40%? In which case 6 of 18 is close to a rounding error. If it's mostly assists to layups and wide open shots, maybe it's like 60%, which would be fairly significant. Is there any chance it should be higher than that?


Important questions. Otherwise, isn't the "18 potential assists" just saying he would have had 18 assists if every player was a perfect shooter?
   1786. Rally Posted: May 16, 2019 at 02:03 PM (#5842833)
stiggles contract ideas are always nuts, he wants to give everyone 3 years when half those guys are going to sign for 1.


I don't know. It looked nuts to me, but I remember a few years back when he made a similar insane contract wish for the team to sign Redick. A 33 year old who had never made 8 million previously. Then the Sixers actually signed him for 23 million (one year deal though).

So I'm not going to dismiss Stiggles' contract ideas as crazy automatically.
   1787. aberg Posted: May 16, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5842839)
Butler opting in is crazy. That would involve turning down somethign like $170m in guaranteed money (the 190m he'd get on a full max vs. the ~20m he'd make opting in). Sure, he'd probably make most of that back next year, but that's not guaranteed, and the 190 would be.
   1788. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 16, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5842843)
Butler opting in is crazy.
This is the card that brings the whole house down, not any of the 3-year contracts (of which The Grand Return Of Thad Young would be the best, despite the logjam of over-6'9" guys). Jimmy Butler opting in would entail taking on such a degree of contract risk as to constitute a serious sacrifice for the team, especially for an aging star with a few injuries in the rear view mirror; it would be unusual for any player, let alone one who's given as many signs of wanting to be The Guy, with the contract to match, as Not James Buckets.
   1789. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 16, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5842851)
Not James Buckets

This is really good.
   1790. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 16, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5842860)
Butler always looks great to start with, and despite being ... problematic ... he is a really good player. But as I said before I am happy with the trade that sent him to Philly. You guys can have him.

But anyway, Butler is so not opting in. He wants money, cash money, and for a long time. On the plus side his timeline fits pretty well with Embiid (both great players with some injury risk going forward).
   1791. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 16, 2019 at 07:55 PM (#5842917)
This is the card that brings the whole house down, not any of the 3-year contracts (of which The Grand Return Of Thad Young would be the best, despite the logjam of over-6'9" guys). Jimmy Butler opting in would entail taking on such a degree of contract risk as to constitute a serious sacrifice for the team, especially for an aging star with a few injuries in the rear view mirror; it would be unusual for any player, let alone one who's given as many signs of wanting to be The Guy, with the contract to match, as Not James Buckets.

re: butler opting in:
if butler trusts elton brand and brett brown and joel embiid to make sure that he is taken care of next summer, his only risk catastrophic injury. if only there were some kind of insurance policy that he might be able to purchase to protect his future earning potential in the event such an occurrence.


re: butler wanting to be the guy:
that wasn't the problem in CHI. the problem in CHI was that CHI was going into the tank, and neither they, nor butler, considered it advantageous to continue that relationship.

the problem in MIN was that butler didn't respect towns and wiggins, and he knew that MIN was never going to pay him.


re: thad young:
thad's defense against pick and rolls would be an important addition for the sixers, who are notoriously godawful at defending pick and rolls.

he's also insurance against teams going big to defend the sixers, since he's really good at facing up against a slower defender and beating them off the dribble.
   1792. shout-out to 57i66135; that shit's working now Posted: May 16, 2019 at 08:00 PM (#5842919)
I don't know. It looked nuts to me, but I remember a few years back when he made a similar insane contract wish for the team to sign Redick. A 33 year old who had never made 8 million previously. Then the Sixers actually signed him for 23 million (one year deal though).

So I'm not going to dismiss Stiggles' contract ideas as crazy automatically.
this summer is not going to be on the same level as the allan crabbe/timofey mozgov summer, but there is going to be a lot of questionable money thrown around.
   1793. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 09:39 PM (#5842938)
Meyers Leonard reminds me of that “I have no idea what I’m doing” meme of a dog at a computer.
   1794. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:05 PM (#5842942)
Portland is up 13 without much from Lillard. Lillard is gonna need to play better to win this game, I think.
   1795. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:07 PM (#5842943)
Butler is not opting in, period. I'm willing to eat my words if I'm wrong.
   1796. phredbird Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:10 PM (#5842945)

so ... after seeing the interview of the currys in the stands in the first quarter, i find myself hoping seth curry has a great series, but i still want GSW to advance. weird?
   1797. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5842946)
Oooh, Golden State has not showed up with the needed intensity tonight.
   1798. phredbird Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:12 PM (#5842947)

... and jeff van gundy talking about his brother is kind of funny.

weren't they not speaking for a long time?
   1799. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5842948)
3 POINT VARIANCE FOR THE WIN #############
   1800. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5842949)
FILP
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