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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6755 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   1801. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5842950)
I see Durant is gonna miss games 3 and 4. Portland needs to win this game, I think, but I now think they have a puncher's chance in the series. Very realistic they could be at least 2-2. I still would favor a Durant-less Warriors, but it's much closer.
   1802. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:36 PM (#5842955)
Portland's bigs are not smart basketball players. Just give a way a lot of cheap possessions.
   1803. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5842958)
Post 1801 hasn't aged well. Here's another hot take, a Nurkic-less Portland may well be the worst Western Conference finalist of my adult life (I'm 35).
   1804. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 10:57 PM (#5842961)
Lillard is so ####### terrible this game.

And this late 3rd quarter lineup with Harkless, Turner, and Hood as the front line is getting killed on the boards.
   1805. JC in DC Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5842962)
What's up with Lillard? He's really playing poorly, almost listless.
   1806. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:06 PM (#5842964)
Lillard wasn't great in a lot of the Denver games either. Part of me just thinks the physicality and the length in the playoffs bothers him a lot. Is he supposed to be hurt?
   1807. aberg Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:11 PM (#5842966)
   1808. aberg Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:12 PM (#5842967)
Portland's offense can go on some nice runs. Golden State's offense and defense can go on some nice runs.
   1809. aberg Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:14 PM (#5842968)

the problem in MIN was that butler didn't respect towns and wiggins, and he knew that MIN was never going to pay him.


Even the explanation for why Butler might opt in cites the fact that he nuked a franchise because he thought they might wait to pay him.
   1810. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:22 PM (#5842972)
I seriously don't understand how Portland is winning this game.

Edit: I guess there was a lot of 3 point variance and poor Warriors effort in the first half. Though it makes me think that the Warriors will just bring max effort if they sense any back against the wall this series.
   1811. spivey Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5842974)
Draymond Green has gotten away with a lot of contact under the basket the last couple of possessions.

Portland doesn't seem like they have offensive sets that get great looks consistently against a locked in Golden State defense.
   1812. JC in DC Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:29 PM (#5842975)
Draymond Green has gotten away with a lot of contact under the basket the last couple of possessions.

Agree. The refs are just afraid to foul him out. He knows when he gets 4, they're really reluctant to foul him out at home. It's yucky.

More important, however, is the total absence of Lillard in the final few minutes.
   1813. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 16, 2019 at 11:36 PM (#5842976)
18-39 from three and still Golden State wins. Gotta be disheartening.
   1814. yo la tengo Posted: May 17, 2019 at 06:01 AM (#5842986)
Regarding the current status of Durant, is there a world in which the Warriors are better off losing a couple of games to stretch this out? That way Durant is more likely to be really back and ready by the finals.
   1815. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 17, 2019 at 06:06 AM (#5842987)
The start day of the Finals is fixed (May 30 this year), independent of when the conference finals wrap up, so no dice there.
   1816. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 17, 2019 at 07:37 AM (#5842988)
   1817. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5842996)
Windhorst looks like the hunchback of Notre Dame in that clip.
   1818. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:19 AM (#5843002)
Windhorst looks like the hunchback of Notre Dame in that clip.

One of the small pleasures of this Warriors run has been how annoying it's been to Windhorst. He really does not like the Warriors and I love it. I listen to his podcast just to revel in his concern trolling of the team. Eventually he'll get his way and the Warriors will be terrible again, but what do we say to the Wind of Horst? Not today!

I won't say much about the game last night except to say Draymond Green is a goddam genius. That Curry-Green pick and roll is a work of art.
   1819. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5843025)
the problem in MIN was that butler didn't respect towns and wiggins, and he knew that MIN was never going to pay him.

I know this is just stiggles making things up to justify his ideas, but I just want to point out this isn't remotely accurate.
   1820. billyshears Posted: May 17, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5843093)
I'm just not sure that the loss of Durant makes the Warriors all that much worse. It will matter against Milwaukee though.
   1821. jmurph Posted: May 17, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5843102)
The Wiz got permission to meet with (Denver's) Tim Connelly, that would be a big hire for them.
   1822. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 17, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5843156)
   1823. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 17, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5843171)
Saw that, Der K. Funny on a number of levels.
   1824. Moeball Posted: May 17, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5843177)
Strange game. It looked like Portland shot much better on the 3s but GS was better on the 2s and got a lot of layups and dunks. So did the change in Portland's defensive strategy really help any?
   1825. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 17, 2019 at 02:56 PM (#5843178)
[1822] I know it gets thrown around a lot on Twitter, but...the NBA is the best league.
   1826. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 17, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5843186)
My endless fascination with "newsbreaker" Twitter has found a new point of fascination, Woj/Shams tweeting to let us know WHO HAS LEFT THE COMBINE.
   1827. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5843208)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 37s38 seconds ago

Pacers free agent Tyreke Evans has been dismissed and disqualified from the league for violating the terms of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program.


There's some news for you.

Yet another speed bump in steagles plan, too.
   1828. aberg Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5843211)
That 3 year deal coming back to bite the sixers.
   1829. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5843213)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 37s38 seconds ago

Pacers free agent Tyreke Evans has been dismissed and disqualified from the league for violating the terms of the NBA/NBPA Anti-Drug Program.
i...didn't even know that could happen.
   1830. aberg Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5843214)
That has to be something more than use, right? Like drug trafficking.
   1831. Tin Angel Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5843215)
i...didn't even know that could happen.


Chris Anderson.
   1832. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5843217)
He can apply for reinstatement in 2 years.
   1833. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5843218)
i...didn't even know that could happen.


Same. Was he dealing coke to kids at a Junior Pacers event or something?
   1834. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 17, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5843219)
i...didn't even know that could happen.
according to bk-ref it has happened 5 times before:
duane washington: 1989 and 1990
roy tarpley: 1992, 1993 and 1994
mitchell wiggins: 1988 and 1989
richard dumas: 1994
chris anderson: 2007
   1835. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 17, 2019 at 05:03 PM (#5843222)
'[the league's drugs of abuse list contains substances such as cocaine, heroin and methamphetamine]'
   1836. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 17, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5843223)
Alex Kennedy @AlexKennedyNBA 9m9 minutes ago

Tyreke Evans tested positive for "drugs of abuse." According to ESPN (when Chris Andersen was dismissed for this), "The drugs on that list are amphetamine and its analogs, which include methamphetamine; cocaine; LSD; opiates, including heroin, codeine and morphine; and PCP."
   1837. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 17, 2019 at 05:12 PM (#5843225)
Wonder if that explains why he was so bad this season?
   1838. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 17, 2019 at 05:28 PM (#5843228)
i'm all in on grant williams. this guy is going to be the next draymond/crowder/tucker/middleton.
   1839. Edmundo got dem ol' Kozma blues again mama Posted: May 17, 2019 at 05:44 PM (#5843231)
i'm all in on grant williams.


I don't know, I see warning signs.

   1840. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 17, 2019 at 06:12 PM (#5843235)
https://twitter.com/jgsiegel/status/1129492810762149888?s=19

Also, this whole thing is another notch in the “the NBA isn’t actually all that progressive” belt. Tyreke is dismissed from the league for drug addiction but domestic violence is just no big deal and Lance is still in the league and Jason Kidd just got hired again…
   1841. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 17, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5843238)
Nets Expected To Be In Mix For Jimmy Butler

As Lewis points out, Butler reportedly had the Nets among the teams on his wish list – along with the Clippers, Knicks, and Heat – before he was traded from Minnesota to Philadelphia last fall. The 29-year-old had a productive season with the Sixers, coming within one game of the Eastern Finals, but he’s believed to still look favorably on Brooklyn, Lewis writes.

With Butler set to turn 30 before the 2019/20 season begins, the battle for his services could come down to which teams are willing to offer him the max, and for how long. After the Sixers were eliminated on Sunday, Butler said, “Technically I think, knock on wood, I will get a max contract anywhere I choose to go.” But there’s no guarantee that teams will be willing to go up to four (or more) years on a player who would be earning $40MM+ in his age-33 season.


I still think signing Butler to a long term max is a great short term and terrible long term move (with the dividing line depending on health and Butler's ... interesting views on team dynamics).
   1842. I am going to be Frank Posted: May 17, 2019 at 07:10 PM (#5843243)
The nets need a big wing that can play pf. I can’t imagine butler not ruining russell’s Confidence. Durant and kawhi l seem to be a pipe dreams. Levert is going to be eligible for his extension at the end of the upcoming season (and I think he’s better than Russell but injuries) and Allen the season after.
   1843. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:04 PM (#5843251)
Kawhi would look very nice in a Brooklyn uniform, if he's not going to resign with Toronto.
   1844. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:11 PM (#5843254)
Most players would! Those are great uniforms.
   1845. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:12 PM (#5843255)
Most players would! Those are great uniforms.

True dat.
   1846. Tin Angel Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:13 PM (#5843256)
Kawhi would look very nice in a Brooklyn uniform, if he's not going to resign with Toronto.


If Durant walks I think a lot of people would be happy to see Kawhi have a shot at a ring with the Warriors.
   1847. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5843257)
If Durant walks I think a lot of people would be happy to see Kawhi have a shot at a ring with the Warriors.

Not as many as the Warriors fans think.
   1848. Tin Angel Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:19 PM (#5843258)
Just kidding. Though watching Green and Kawhi (and Thompson) on the same defense would be pretty fun.
   1849. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:24 PM (#5843260)
Just kidding. Though watching Green and Kawhi (and Thompson) on the same defense would be pretty fun.

Yeah, but I think they'd have trouble integrating him, honestly. He's not a pure shooter like KD, and needs more of the ball than would be optimal for the Warriors. But on defence -- that'd be something to see.
   1850. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5843262)
OK, so I want to see Giannis dunk all over fools, and the Barneys win a laugher.
   1851. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 08:34 PM (#5843263)
Well.
   1852. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:13 PM (#5843267)
Kawhi's awesome behind the backboard shot got wiped away on a lame charge call. Life is tough sometimes.
   1853. Moeball Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:14 PM (#5843268)
Ok, this is going to sound crazy, but hear me out. For whatever reason, KD wanted to go play alongside Steph and Klay and so did Boogie. Players want to go play on GS. Not only do you get to pick up rings, but it just seems to be a more fun style of play. Well, that is for everyone except KD who never looks like he's having fun. He always seems to be in some dour mood. At any rate - the narrative is no one wants to go play on LeBron's team, although I think P George will eventually come to regret his decision to go with OKC. But people gravitate towards Steph. So - here's the scenario: if GS wins the title again and KD walks, I'm guessing it's tough for GS to recruit another top level player. I mean, if GS had won in 2016 I don't think they would have been able to bring in KD. But what if KD is hurt worse than GS is telling everyone? What if KD can't come back for the Finals? What if GS doesn't win the title? If KD walks, does that create another summer of 2016 situation where GS can go recruit somebody to help them get back on top? Also - if GS doesn't win, does that make it more likely KD wants to stay? Or is he gone no matter what happens?
   1854. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:18 PM (#5843269)
1498. shout-out to 57i66135; that ####'s working now Posted: May 13, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5841661)
I will go Warriors in 5, Bucks in 6.
i'll take warriors in 4, bucks in 3.
i may have been too pessimistic.
   1855. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:19 PM (#5843271)
i may have been too pessimistic.

It's like they're playing two comparable but not compatible games, yes.
   1856. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:34 PM (#5843274)
On the bright side, this does make me feel a little better about how the last round went for the Celtics.
   1857. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:39 PM (#5843277)
This is horrifying.
   1858. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:44 PM (#5843279)
This is horrifying.

What, "Duo Transcend", the fitness duo on roller-skates during half-time? Yes, I agree.
   1859. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5843281)
Now, I want them to lose by 830 points. #### this team.
   1860. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:31 PM (#5843293)
At least the Raps are putting up some kind of fight. That...

Never mind.
   1861. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5843295)
Jesus Haploid Christ.
   1862. spivey Posted: May 17, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5843299)
Holy #### Lowry and Kawhi flop a lot.
   1863. spivey Posted: May 17, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5843330)
Basketball!!
   1864. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 17, 2019 at 11:26 PM (#5843333)
Largest Point Differential Through First 11 Games - NBA Postseason History:

2016-17 Warriors* +182
2000-01 Lakers* +170
>>2018-19 Bucks +168
1970-71 Bucks* +164
1995-96 Bulls* +162

*Won NBA Championship
   1865. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 12:40 AM (#5843339)
I think that Toronto's biggest issue is that Gasol really shouldn't be on the court.
   1866. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 18, 2019 at 02:00 AM (#5843341)
[1853] The big difference is that the Warriors are going to need something truly crazy to keep Thompson and sign another star this summer, like someone just pure ring chasing and signing for the MLE. Even if they don't resign Thompson it takes some serious calisthenics.

This wasn't true for Durant because of the cap spike and because Curry was on a ridiculously cheap contract. And they got Cousins cheap because of course he was a distressed asset given the injury and wanted to play on a one year deal.
   1867. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 18, 2019 at 02:31 AM (#5843342)
[1865] Gasol agrees. (It also seems that Nick Nurse agrees, he only played 19 minutes tonight and five in the second half, as this article says.)

Mostly, though, I mean, the Bucks played yet another excellent game tonight. It's going to take a special effort to beat this team four out of seven (let alone four out of five). Obviously, the Warriors, and maaaaybe the Raptors, have special efforts in them.

I'm pretty pumped for the Finals right now.

The Tyreke thing is weird.
   1868. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 18, 2019 at 02:37 AM (#5843343)
I'm pumped for the Finals, but I'll be more pumped once Durant is actually back. I don't care what the post-MRI headlines were, non-contact injuries make me nervous.

I was thinking this morning that it wouldn't be the worst idea to bet on the Bucks winning the championship now, while the Warriors are still (I assume, I don't follow this stuff) betting favorites.
   1869. spivey Posted: May 18, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5843355)
Bucks are +200 to win it all, Warriors -185. The Durant may not be healthy odds seem somewhat priced in already. Though I think Milwaukee is flat out better than a Durantless Warriors team, if he plays the Warriors should be favorites. Those odds also reflect that Toronto is way better and more likely to come back than Portland.
   1870. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:52 AM (#5843359)
Bucks are +200 to win it all, Warriors -185. The Durant may not be healthy odds seem somewhat priced in already. Though I think Milwaukee is flat out better than a Durantless Warriors team, if he plays the Warriors should be favorites. Those odds also reflect that Toronto is way better and more likely to come back than Portland.
a: they're not.
b: they're not.

TOR is not very good, they are gassed from the last round, and MIL is a terrible matchup for them. they snuck past PHI because kawhi played out of his ####### mind, and when embiid ate a vegetable for the first time in his life, his body reacted like a vegan who accidentally ingested cream with their coffee.

embiid
regular season: 33% usage; 59% TS%; 13% TO%; 21% TRB%
v. TOR: 27% usage; 53% TS%; 19% TO%; 13% TRB%

kawhi
regular season: 30% usage; 61% TS%
v. PHI: 36% usage; 63% TS%


it took that much for TOR to beat PHI on a buzzer beating game seven 19' fadeaway jumpshot from behind the backboard that bounced off the rim 6 times. that team is not going to beat MIL 4 times 5 games. 0 percent chance.
   1871. Hot Wheeling American Posted: May 18, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5843364)
Still haven't seen confirmation: so did Embiid not have the flu and poison the locker room with illness? That seemed to be taken as a given a week or two ago.
   1872. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 18, 2019 at 01:20 PM (#5843385)
kawhi
regular season: 30% usage; 61% TS%
v. PHI: 36% usage; 63% TS%
Wait, Toronto was leaning more heavily on its one superstar player in the playoffs? Who could have expected that!
   1873. sardonic Posted: May 18, 2019 at 01:26 PM (#5843387)
On the one hand, I like the Bucks, Giannis, Khris and their whole up and coming thing. On the other hand, purely as a Warriors fan, I hope that the Bucks are not the 14-15 Warriors and this year's Warriors are the 14-15 Cavs.
   1874. spivey Posted: May 18, 2019 at 02:19 PM (#5843394)
Toronto had the 2nd best record in the NBA and the 3rd best SRS. That's without Kawhi sitting a lot of games too.

It does feel like they are a bit of a regular season team. They also got some serious over-performances on 3pt shooting from Danny Green and Siakam during the regular season, it looks like. And Gasol has been awful, as noted. And many of their non-Kawhi/Lowry guys can't create their own shot. Siakam kind of can, but less so against a locked in, long defense. They could use Terrence Ross or Delon Wright right now. That Gasol trade really has backfired.
   1875. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 02:38 PM (#5843400)
That Gasol trade really has backfired.


I don't think you can say that, given the numbers that Stiggles posted in 1870.

There's a pretty decent chance that Toronto doesn't make the ECF without Gasol on Embiid. Ibaka *really* can't guard him.

***

I think Toronto has two main issues:
1. Gasol cannot be on the court against Giannis.
2. Siakam needs to play better. Siakam was a legit star in the regular season (although some of that might have just been shots going in) and has been a negative ever since his injury.
   1876. spivey Posted: May 18, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5843402)
I don't think you can say that, given the numbers that Stiggles posted in 1870.

That's fair. I don't know what to make of that series, or Embiid's performance in it.
   1877. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 18, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5843404)
The main issue that Toronto has, is that the Bucks are a freakin juggernaut.
   1878. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 18, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5843405)
That's without Kawhi sitting a lot of games too.

I know what you are trying to say, but this is not what you are trying to say, heh.
   1879. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 18, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5843409)
Co-sign 1875.
   1880. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 18, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5843410)
Co-sign 1877.
   1881. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 18, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5843421)
That too.
   1882. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 18, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5843422)
I think that there's an argument that JV wouldn't have been as useless against Embiid as Ibaka, and that Wright, who is not a great player, would have played a larger role in the PHI series. So say that ends in 5 or 6 -- ok, neither of those players would be able to do anything against the Bucks. I think what's happening is that we're just seeing that the Bucks are simply playing better right now, and oh man are the finals gonna be awesome.
   1883. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 18, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5843424)
Also, welcome to Minnesota, Jeff Bzdelik.
   1884. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 05:55 PM (#5843427)
Also, welcome to Minnesota, Jeff Bzdelik.


What a weird situation. Everyone gave Bzdelik all the credit after last year's big defensive improvement. There was all the drama about how they hired him back at the beginning of the season, and now they just fire him. The Rockets are weird, man.

The main issue that Toronto has, is that the Bucks are a freakin juggernaut.


Ehhhhhh ...

Like, right now the Bucks look great. They've also faced some pretty bad opponents (Detroit with no Blake), and their good opponents have really underperformed. Now, maybe that's due to the Bucks, but I happen to lean more towards the Bucks being a really good team who have also gotten slightly lucky in having opponents underperform.

I think Toronto can still bounce back to tie the series. (The Bucks are obviously heavy favorites to make the finals)
   1885. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: May 18, 2019 at 06:03 PM (#5843428)
1884–no shot at you but seems like every NBA blogger has posted that theme that sure Bucks are good but......

So either Bucks D is that good or pretty much all teams have been off somehow when they played Milwaukee. If you posted that on Brewhoop that crew would immediately link ike 50 articles saying what you posted and then mocking you for your, to them, lame take and being wrong like the others
   1886. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 06:12 PM (#5843429)
1884–no shot at you but seems like every NBA blogger has posted that theme that sure Bucks are good but......

So either Bucks D is that good or pretty much all teams have been off somehow when they played Milwaukee. If you posted that on Brewhoop that crew would immediately link ike 50 articles saying what you posted and then mocking you for your, to them, lame take and being wrong like the others


Sure, and all the Celtics fans think I'm dumb for not believing in Brad Stevens' 3p defense.

The Bucks defense has been great, but I don't think they are actually better than they were in the regular season. Right now there's a little air in the Bucks' performance--particularly on defense. Even if you take that air out, they're still the best team in the East (going into the playoffs, I picked Toronto, I think, so that represents a change in my opinion), but I'd be cautious about saying they're a juggernaut.

I don't really think that fans are very good at noticing when teams are overperforming.
   1887. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: May 18, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5843431)
1886-think fans as a general rule are really negative. Nobody wants to get their heart crushed
   1888. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 18, 2019 at 06:28 PM (#5843434)
Agree that the Bucks postseason D has been overperforming/lucky
They are also a championship caliber team
   1889. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: May 18, 2019 at 06:31 PM (#5843436)
So is Middleton’s D effort is why his offense has been not great first two games?
   1890. phredbird Posted: May 18, 2019 at 08:51 PM (#5843464)

anybody think portland can win one of the next two?

on paper one would think they should be able to, but man GSW has shown some real fire.

i don't know if it's been mentioned anywhere, but GSW is 29-1 when durant is out of the lineup.
   1891. spivey Posted: May 18, 2019 at 08:52 PM (#5843465)
I generally agree the Bucks have been 3 point variance lucky on defense. Their point differential is like +16/game. They obviously aren't that good. But they're healthy, have tightened up the rotation and have shipped some of their worst players like Thon Maker. I don't rate them as a juggernaut, but like Der K said I think they're championship caliber. They aren't the best shooting team, but they have had a few impressive games in the playoffs. Game 3 and 4 in the Boston series, and games 1 and 2 this series against Toronto they basically shot the same as the opponent, or worse. And they still won all of those games. That's what's impressive about them, is if they shoot the same as the opponent from deep, they're almost certainly going to win. They can even give up a bit there, and still generally will win.

They are on the tier of pre-Zaza Spurs a couple of years ago, Houston last year, OKC w/ Durant and IMO they're better than the Kyrie+LeBron Cavs. Perhaps that's debatable, but they're at least on that level imo. Those are the best contenders for the Warriors of this era, and as great as the Warriors are - I think they are in the discussion for greatest dynasty ever - those teams have all pushed the Warriors. They aren't unbeatable. This could also be a year where we look back and perhaps see some warning signs before the Finals, like the Lakers/Pistons. They went to 6 against the Clippers and Rockets, and that Rockets team is not near the team last year was.

The trouble is that I do think the Warriors are a tough matchup for Milwaukee. Milwaukee is very good defensively, but I don't know that I'd say they're really smart, and there are ways to exploit them. In a year or two I think they will be. They can let the opposition bomb 3s and figure they can make that up by dominating the glass, not giving up free throws or shots at the rim. But you can't let the Warriors bomb from 3. And similar to Boston, all of the stuff that Milwaukee is excellent at plays less against Golden State because the non-Durant guys mostly don't try to get to the line, and they don't score a lot of paint points. Similarly, I think Draymond/Iggy are gonna be allowed to manhandle Giannis. Toronto is getting away with that in this series. That's the one downside of Giannis is he's reffed like a big rather than a guard/wing. Basically everything that makes Boston a bad matchup, makes the Warriors an even tougher matchup. Of course all of this assumes they have Durant - much of it applies if they don't, but I think Milwaukee's got enough scorers to where a couple of guys will have an advantage if Durant's not out there.

All that said, I think Milwaukee will believe they can win. I seriously question if the Trailblazers believe they can beat the Warriors 4 times. I think they'll give the Warriors they're best punch. One thing that could be interesting in that series is I think both teams can be pretty loose with the ball. That's the nature of being a very high pace team. I could see a game or two swinging one way or the other when they should otherwise be able to salt it away.

As a side note, I don't think anyone responded to my 'Portland is the worst team to make the WCF in my adult life', but I think that's probably true. Who is in that discussion? The year Denver made it with Melo and went up 2-1 on the Lakers? I think that Denver team is more well rounded. The Memphis grit-and-grind team made it once, but I think that team is probably better too.

   1892. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 09:46 PM (#5843472)
I generally agree the Bucks have been 3 point variance lucky on defense. Their point differential is like +16/game. They obviously aren't that good. But they're healthy, have tightened up the rotation and have shipped some of their worst players like Thon Maker. I don't rate them as a juggernaut, but like Der K said I think they're championship caliber. They aren't the best shooting team, but they have had a few impressive games in the playoffs. Game 3 and 4 in the Boston series, and games 1 and 2 this series against Toronto they basically shot the same as the opponent, or worse. And they still won all of those games. That's what's impressive about them, is if they shoot the same as the opponent from deep, they're almost certainly going to win. They can even give up a bit there, and still generally will win.

They are on the tier of pre-Zaza Spurs a couple of years ago, Houston last year, OKC w/ Durant and IMO they're better than the Kyrie+LeBron Cavs. Perhaps that's debatable, but they're at least on that level imo.


Agree with all of this. I rate the Bucks as the best Eastern team since the Miami LeBron teams. Maybe the best since the 2012 Heat?

As a side note, I don't think anyone responded to my 'Portland is the worst team to make the WCF in my adult life', but I think that's probably true. Who is in that discussion? The year Denver made it with Melo and went up 2-1 on the Lakers? I think that Denver team is more well rounded. The Memphis grit-and-grind team made it once, but I think that team is probably better too.


The Memphis team is a good comp for Portland. Both were basically the same group for a long period, and one year the draw and their luck hit right.
   1893. puck Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5843482)
Dang, Draymond dropped his contact lens on the court twice and just stuck it back in.
   1894. spivey Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:17 PM (#5843485)
Draymond Green is playing with supreme confidence right now.
   1895. tshipman Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5843487)
Portland getting the underdog whistle at home.

That and Kerr inexplicably starting Damian Jones. Kerr's love of Damian Jones is just bizarre to me.
   1896. Tin Angel Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5843489)
Dang, Draymond dropped his contact lens on the court twice and just stuck it back in.


Slightly off topic. Freshman year of college, after about six or so hours of heavy drinking, we were walking back to our dorm and crossing some train tracks when someone started violently vomiting so hard his contacts flew out. They landed in his vomit but he was so drunk he immediately knelt down, picked them out and put one back in his eye. His screams were very loud.
   1897. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:28 PM (#5843491)
I could have done without that story.
   1898. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:30 PM (#5843492)
One thing I'd like to add to the MIL discussion...I think I alluded to this earlier, but they have another gear. Middleton leads them in minutes at 33 per game. Giannis is playing 32 a game. They're kicking the #### out of teams as is, but their performance is even more impressive considering they could be playing their best guys a significant amount more. OF course that assumes Bud will be willing to do that at some point, which is an open question. As I said in a recent group text, Kumbaya Kerr vs. Buddy Bud Finals rotations could be maddening.
   1899. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5843493)
Milwaukee: I can see why Bucks fans would be a little salty. They go 60-22 with Top 5 D and Top 5 O, have probably the best player in the game, are 10-1 in postseason, and some people are still saying, "yeah, but."I think like me these people were skeptical that a team could get that much better without adding a major on-floor talent. Budenholzer is good and Kidd is bad, but still. In any case, that position was wrong. They did get that much better.

As to what is going on now, it is ofc "both." Irving had a bad semis series, and he is Boston's main guy. That is partly Milwaukee and partly Irving. I saw a lot of references, including some here, to Brad Stevens's Special Sauce being an issue for Milwaukee in the series--that he was going to outcoach Budenholzer. Stevens is a good coach, but how things went in Boston this year, contra how they went in Milwaukee, reinforces my general position that most NBA coaches today are smart guys, but in the end, they can only do so much.

Toronto: They have looked about like I thought they would look in postseason. Leonard is great--one of the 3 or 4 best players in the league. But the rest of the team is IMO just OK. I am a full-on Gasol Stan--Pau and Marc are both personal favorites. But Marc is not helping Toronto at all right now. I was dead wrong about Boston being a tough our for Milwaukee, but I also said the same thing about Philadelphia being a tough out for Toronto.
   1900. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 18, 2019 at 10:42 PM (#5843494)
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