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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6755 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   2001. sardonic Posted: May 20, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5843928)
Ryan
   2002. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5843943)
Wasn't the knock about the Raptors recently that their bench was so good (compared to other benches) but that was less valuable in the playoffs when rotations are shorter and top-heavy? They don't seem to have any bench at all. I get that Anunoby is injured, but you'd think that Lin and McCaw could play some more minutes. McCaw was in the regular rotation for a championship team and Lin has been a starter/quasi-starter on a couple of playoff teams. Lin was active for game 3 and he couldn't have been worse than FVV was.
they traded their "deep" bench for kawhi and gasol.

in:
gasol
kawhi
danny green

out:
jonas valanciunas -- replaced by gasol
cj miles: 10th/11th man -- not replaced
delon wright: 3rd/4th guard/wing -- not replaced
demarr derozan -- replaced by kawhi
jake poeltl -- 2nd/3rd big -- not replaced

injured:
og anunoby

also gone:
lucas nogueira: one of the best defensive bigs (not) in the NBA -- not replaced.


specifically, i think losing delon wright was a huge blow. he was their best perimeter defender (besides kawhi), and he had the versatility to defend 3 positions. he could have guarded brogdon, hill or bledsoe in this round, but he also could have guarded butler, redick or tobias harris in the last round. they need that alot more than they needed to "upgrade" from valanciunas to gasol.

poeltl was also a really underrated loss to them. i'm shocked that i said that, too, but over the last two years, he's put up a 65% TS%, with a +4 BPM.

i don't know that they "chose" to keep van vleet, powell and anunoby over wright and poeltl, but if they did, it was probably a mistake.



   2003. jmurph Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5843950)
Anunoby started and was fine last year. VanVleet (no space in there? who knew) was good last year and decent this year. I don't think it was completely predictable that VanVleet would turn into a pumpkin and Anunoby would be hurt.
   2004. JJ1986 Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5843960)
they traded their "deep" bench for kawhi and gasol.
Half-right. They lost depth on the Gasol trade, but they swapped Poeltl for Danny Green in the Kawhi trade and they don't need a 3rd center anyway. They tried to replaced Miles and Delon with Jodie Meeks and Jeremy Lin, but Lin is either injured or he should be playing and Meeks isn't better than Powell. Their depth has taken a hit because OG is out and because they traded Wright and because Patrick McCaw is unavailable for some reason.
   2005. DCA Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5843963)
2002 -

I guess what I was saying is that I thought Lin and McCaw were part of the "in" and they seem pretty good for 10th man types.

But getting only junk minutes this playoffs, less than Jodie Meeks. I had to look up that they even got on the court at all.
   2006. KronicFatigue Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:30 PM (#5843964)
One of these years I'll understand the rationale for having a player foul out in OT with the same number of fouls it would've taken him to foul out in regulation. There's a reason the pros require one more foul to disqualify a player than colleges, and seems to me the same logic would apply to OT.


How would you handle a guy who fouled out in regulation? On one hand, it feels like a lack of closure if you let him back in. He made his mistakes, and his night is over. On the other hand, if a player is done at 6, a team might be less likely to play him with 5 at the end "just in case". I suppose it would be stupid coaching to presume OT, but managers still save their closers for a lead in extras at home, so who knows.
   2007. aberg Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5843965)
I think this is a bigger range than the phrasing would suggest.


I am saying that as a range from ok outcome to good to great.
   2008. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 20, 2019 at 05:37 PM (#5843966)
I have watched about 80% of Thybulle's games over the last two years and seen him in person many times. I agree with your assessment of him. Since you usually focus on PGs in these write-ups, I'd warn people not to think of him as a primary initiator. He will play as a 2/3 in the NBA with a >7' wingspan and exceptional quick hands. The defense is and will be his calling card. He put up some defensive numbers that have hardly ever been in done CBB before, but Zion matched some of his numbers so it didn't get as much attention.
yeah that's 100% true. i wasn't planning on reviewing thybulle, but he popped so much when i was watching video of that other guy that i had to stop to look into him.

He will have to be able to contribute offensively to go with that defense. His shot is ok. He usually gets decent arc, but he doesn't have a pure release (it's a little 2-handed), which leads to imperfect rotation/touch. There's a big difference in his shooting off of a pass (very good) vs. off the dribble (very bad). I'm a little more bearish than S7I66135 on his ball-handling or vision. I'd say he will enter the league a little below average in both categories, but they won't doom him. He is a very good cutter and leaper, so when he gets the ball with a lane to the basket, he will dunk it hard. He's also great in transition. He played four years in college, so he probably doesn't have a huge amount of untapped potential. I think the areas where he could get a little better are (1) tightening up his release so he can get a little better in catch-and-shoot and (2) get good enough off the bounce to attack a close-out and get to his ability to attack the rim. If he does those things, he can be in the range of Jae Crowder-Robert Covington-Khris Middleton offensively.

the important thing about thybulle offensively is that he's a guy who can dribble, shoot and pass. he might be below average at all of those things, but he's good enough to hurt opponents who ignore him.

i think a realistic offensive comp for thybulle is someone like mike scott or marcus morris. neither of those guys are very dangerous, but they can blend into most offensive systems, and do damage under the right circumstances.

in terms of upside, middleton, butler, oladipo, kawhi and paul george have all improved substantially since getting into the NBA. PG made his first team at 22; kawhi at 24; oladipo and butler at 25; middleton at 27. thybulle will be a 22 year old rookie, which is to say, he has plenty of time to develop.
I don't think it was completely predictable that VanVleet would turn into a pumpkin
it's not even that. it's just that MIL and PHI have primary ballhandlers that are a foot taller than him. it's a terrible matchup for him.
   2009. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 20, 2019 at 06:53 PM (#5843997)
aberg's take on Thybulle is pretty good.

I just want to second this, and to say that I really appreciate the work that people do here. This is the best sports thread on the internet, and it's not even remotely close.
   2010. Moeball Posted: May 20, 2019 at 07:46 PM (#5844010)
Thirded and beyond. The NBA analysis here is way better than what I get anywhere else. From scouting reports on players to team strategy discussions to economics it's all covered here. You've all taught me so much and I thank you for that!

Next question then - if Iggy can't go tonight, who does GS stick out there defensively in his place? I've got to think this is the one game Portland may get in this series. Either Dame or CJ is due to go off, I would think, especially if GS has a sub-par game defensively tonight.
   2011. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:08 PM (#5844016)
Next question then - if Iggy can't go tonight, who does GS stick out there defensively in his place? I've got to think this is the one game Portland may get in this series. Either Dame or CJ is due to go off, I would think, especially if GS has a sub-par game defensively tonight.
Iggy has indeed been ruled out, and the answer to your question is Alfonzo McKinnie. This is not a great answer.

Isn't Lillard still playing hurt? The Blazer D has looked much more helpless than I'd expected, so perhaps praying to the gods of 3-point variance is Portland's best (only?) hope tonight. And strangely, I wouldn't mind a Blazer win. I've grown to really like this team. They deserve at least one moment of triumph in this series.
   2012. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:41 PM (#5844022)
Meyers Leonard has been possessed by the ghost of Bill Walton, but GS is still winning. I can't imagine Portland being able to sustain this level of offense, while I KNOW the Warriors can.
   2013. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:43 PM (#5844025)

i was just about to type something similar to hombre. both teams are shooting lights out. guess who that favors?
   2014. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:46 PM (#5844028)
So we just had 3+ minutes of Dame being guarded by Anonymous Rookie (Evans). Dame did not attempt a shot. On his first possession they ran the kid through several screens, but he handled them well and Dame never got the ball. On only one other possession did he even try to create a shot for himself. I don't understand what Portland's thinking there.
   2015. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:50 PM (#5844030)
I hate this for Portland. Golden State is giving their starters a blow early, and the Blazers aren't taking advantage of that? Kerr's basically daring Portland to play their starters against the bench mob — DO IT! Down 3-0 in the series, GS can take some chances and conserve their starters. Portland cannot.
   2016. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: May 20, 2019 at 09:51 PM (#5844032)
Zach Collins missed his calling as the preppie villain in a late '80s skiing movie.
   2017. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:07 PM (#5844037)
What is going on with Meyers Leonard!
   2018. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:10 PM (#5844040)

man, this changed quick. naturally, my prediction goes wrong.
   2019. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5844042)
When did Meyers Leonard get possessed by the spirit of the young Arvydas Sabonis?
   2020. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:14 PM (#5844043)

GS with a break here on the clear path foul.

shut up van gundy.
   2021. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:15 PM (#5844046)

holy cow, curry threw that in almost from half court.

GS cut that deficit down pretty quick. these guys are amazing.
   2022. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:46 PM (#5844054)
This is the first time I'm thinking Portland can pull this one out. The Warriors really miss Iggy right now.
   2023. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:52 PM (#5844057)

agree.

GS bench not doing it.
   2024. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 10:55 PM (#5844058)

those reverse angles confuse me ...
   2025. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5844063)

the warriors will have to do their usual 3rd quarter surge in the 4th quarter.

it'll work if portland ever misses. jeez.
   2026. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:04 PM (#5844066)

so now curry picks a time to miss a 4th quarter free throw in the playoffs.

first time since 2015.
   2027. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5844068)

geez, the blazers are giving the warriors every opportunity to come back, and GS keeps turning the ball over.

   2028. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5844073)
Holy crap. That happened so fast.
   2029. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:25 PM (#5844077)

this is crazy. that shot by thompson was unbelievable.

lotta sloppy basketball though. both teams missing so many opportunities.
   2030. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:26 PM (#5844078)
I LOVE that play Draymond does where he pushes after a make while the other team is celebrating. Didn't get a bucket this time but it feels like they get about one free high quality transition opportunity per game out of nothing because of this.
   2031. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5844079)

ugh, curry just made a major blunder ...
   2032. puck Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:28 PM (#5844080)
Horrible travel by Curry. He did that last game, too.
   2033. Tin Angel Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:30 PM (#5844081)
Refs targeting the Warriors and Curry as usual.
   2034. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:31 PM (#5844083)

i can't believe they didn't put anything back on the clock there.

agree with 2030 btw. green has really upped his game.
   2035. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:34 PM (#5844085)
So many overtimes these playoffs! I love it.
   2036. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:35 PM (#5844087)

looks like GS will have to do their 3rd quarter surge ... in overtime.
   2037. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:36 PM (#5844088)
Game very physical here in the OT.

Blazers being allowed to grab a ton.
   2038. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5844090)

WTF green with the 3!!!
   2039. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:42 PM (#5844091)

portland did everything right, and GS still does it.
   2040. tshipman Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:44 PM (#5844094)
I think it's actually out on Lillard, but I expect it to be Portland ball.
   2041. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:44 PM (#5844096)

that's portland's ball.

that last angle shows it grazing thompson after it came out of lillard's hand.

methinks.
   2042. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:47 PM (#5844097)

wow ... just wow. can't believe GS won this game.
   2043. phredbird Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:49 PM (#5844098)

poor doris burke. why do they make these courtside people ask such dopey questions?
   2044. Powderhorn™, arrogant local sailing champion Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5844099)
Very close. I think it was off Lillard, but am nowhere near certain about that.
   2045. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5844100)
That was a blast.
   2046. strong silence Posted: May 20, 2019 at 11:55 PM (#5844101)
The Warriors will win their 4th title in five years. Their only Finals loss further highlights Lebron and makes him greatest of all time. Think about it: He put a good player and some average ones on his back and beat a dynasty.

Did Jordan's Bulls ever win a Final as the underdog?

As revealed years after, we can see more clearly the miracle of the Cavs achievement.
   2047. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:06 AM (#5844102)
The Warriors will win their 4th title in five years. Their only Finals loss further highlights Lebron and makes him greatest of all time. Think about it: He put a good player and some average ones on his back and beat a dynasty.

Did Jordan's Bulls ever win a Final as the underdog?

As revealed years after, we can see more clearly the miracle of the Cavs achievement.


Is this parody?
   2048. phredbird Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:10 AM (#5844103)

i like lebron fine, but this hardly seems like the time for a hijack.

steve kerr and the GS management have done an all time great job over the last 5 or 6 years, this is a true NBA dynasty.
   2049. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:27 AM (#5844105)
What is going on with Meyers Leonard!

He read somewhere on the internet, that Shaq would have destroyed him.
   2050. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:34 AM (#5844106)
two quick questions:

1: did anyone else watch the rachel nichols/windhorst/dennis scott/(4th person whose name i didn't catch; possibly chauncey billups) simulcast on ESPN2 instead of the regular broadcast?

2: for people who watched the regular broadcast, did they also make a big deal about draymond switching his defensive responsibility before the play started, as it was happening? i think dennis scott is the one who pointed this out: draymond switched onto mccollum before the 5 second count started, so that when the play action began, he was able to switch back onto meyers lemond who was supposed to set a screen on him, which allowed (i think it was) mckinsey to be a step and a half ahead of mccollum's cut to the rim.


interestingly, the play i would have called is a back screen for mylars leonardo, but with the way draymond had preswitched, that would have been immediately gunked up.

i guess the next iteration for that would have been for leonard to set the screen on green, but then have mccollum ignore mckinnie to set a screen on whoever was defending the inbounds.

set it up so that the ball gets inbounded to leonard (since he's 7' tall, that seems pretty safe).
if he's free, then it's an easy layup, but if mcccollum's man (in this case draymond green) sticks to him, then you get the secondary action, which is:
a backdoor cut for the inbounder (evan turner, i think), with a screen set by mccollum;
if that's not free, then you hit a third action, which is:
a backdoor cut from mccollum, since he should have inside position on the defender that he just screened.


the first action should take .5-1 second. if leonard is free, it's an alleyoop.
the second action: 1-1.5 seconds. it's basically a give and go from turner (inbounds) to leonard (elbow) to turner (backdoor cut) for a layup
third action: 2.5+ seconds: this is where it gets dicey. first action failed; second action failed, and now there are so many moving pieces, things that can go wrong, that you may be better off calling a timeout, or going to:
fourth action: leonard elmore midrange jumpshot from the elbow.


of course, there are at least two big issues with this play:
firstly, your best player, lillard, never touches the ball.
secondly, your other all-star caliber player, mccollum, is the third (really, fourth) option.

on the other hand, if it works, you'll have a layup within a second, and even if it doesn't, you could have called another timeout with at least a second left on the clock to give yourself another chance to pull something off.



anyway, this post is really long for some reason. fun fact: try to imagine what this post would have looked if it was the sixers, who had just gotten swept, instead.
   2051. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:35 AM (#5844107)
Is this parody?
no. it's iowa.
   2052. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:06 AM (#5844109)
Jeff van Gundy explores his sexuality.
   2053. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:04 AM (#5844112)
I am too afraid to even click on that.
   2054. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:27 AM (#5844129)
Jeff van Gundy explores his sexuality.
it seems like he's exploring mike breen's sexuality more than his own.
   2055. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5844131)
The NBA Countdown crew were discussing Kerr's place on the all time coaching greats list. It wasn't a great discussion (that is really not a good show, ESPN should be able to do better), but Pierce had him top 5* and Chauncey and Jalen I think had him top 10 or "in the discussion for top 10."

Which of course made me curious what everyone here thinks about this.

*Pretty sure he was the only one who named all 5- I think he had Auerbach, Riley, Pop, Jackson, and Kerr. The others were throwing out names like Larry Brown and Lenny Wilkens. Doc was offered up.
   2056. spivey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:45 AM (#5844134)
I think Kerr is a difficult guy to evaluate. That will be less true in 10 years (even if he's not coaching in 10 years).

I wouldn't feel comfortable putting him top 5 yet. Top 10? Oh, sure.
   2057. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5844135)
[2055] My ranking of active-ish coaches:

Tier 1 (Elite):

Pop
Spo

Tier 2 (Very Good):

Carlisle, Kerr, Doc, Quin, Stotts

Tier 3 (Good):

Bud, D'Antoni, Casey, Malone, Clifford

Ranking coaches is extremely difficult, but it's hard for me to look past GSW's overwhelming talent advantage when I haven't seen what Kerr can do in other contexts.

ETA: There's no way I'd have him in my Top 5 all time right now. Top 10? Maybe, but I also don't have much of an opinion about any coaches pre-90s.
   2058. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:55 AM (#5844139)
If Carlisle is truly the coach that he is regarded as, the Mavericks are one of the worst run organizations in the league. They haven't won a playoff series in 8 years.
   2059. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:57 AM (#5844140)
The NBA Countdown crew were discussing Kerr's place on the all time coaching greats list. It wasn't a great discussion (that is really not a good show, ESPN should be able to do better), but Pierce had him top 5* and Chauncey and Jalen I think had him top 10 or "in the discussion for top 10."

Which of course made me curious what everyone here thinks about this.

*Pretty sure he was the only one who named all 5- I think he had Auerbach, Riley, Pop, Jackson, and Kerr. The others were throwing out names like Larry Brown and Lenny Wilkens. Doc was offered up.
when kerr was GM of the suns, he was one of the best GMs in the league.
when kerr was an announcer for TNT, he was of the best announcers in the league.
since kerr became coach of the warriors, he's gone to 5 straight NBA finals.

i'm pretty willing to give kerr the benefit of the doubt on this one.


his tenure as GM in PHO is actually kind of interesting to look back on. in 3 years as GM, he added:
boris diaw (at 25 years old)
grant hill (35)
matt barnes (28)
jared dudley (23)
robin lopez (20)
goran dragic (22)
jason richardson (28)
channing frye (26)

diaw and hill could be seen as a precursor to positionless basketball.
dragic and frye could be seen as a precursor to the 3P revolution.
barnes, dudley, richardson and hill could be seen as a precursor to the smallball revolution.

   2060. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:02 AM (#5844142)
when kerr was GM of the suns, he was one of the best GMs in the league.
you know what, that's an oversell.

but kerr did step down after year where PHO made the conference finals with the NBA's #1 offense.
the next two years, PHO had a fringe-top 10 offense, and a .500 record.

then the bottom fell out.


now, maybe kerr left because he knew what was coming, but it's also possible that he would have been able to make better decisions that could have the team competitive for a few more years, a la daryl morey in HOU.
   2061. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:06 AM (#5844144)
Tier 1 (Elite):
Pop
Spo

I also maintain this is outrageous. Spoelstra has won one playoff series without LeBron. If we're waiting on Kerr to do something without Curry, I don't understand how Spo gets a pass on the same thing.
   2062. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:26 AM (#5844150)
jmurph, I think DAL and MIA have had bad rosters for a while.

EDIT: Also, I didn't think that long about this (Brad Stevens should have been on there somewhere).
   2063. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5844151)
jmurph, I think DAL and MIA have had bad rosters for a while.

Yeah I mostly agree with that, but I think it's weird that both coaches get some amount of extra credit for their teams being slightly less bad than they'd be with another coach.

But more to the point I also think Kerr's Warriors tenure is, at worst, equal to Spoelstra's LeBron years.
   2064. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:54 AM (#5844157)
I can't see any reason to put Spo in the elite group. I don't think the Miami roster (excluding Lebron) is Laker level bad (post Achilles Kobe to Lebron). If it were then averaging 40-45 wins and a first round playoff loss every other year would be a good performance.

I thought the Spurs roster looked terrible coming into the season but they win 48 in the west. That's amazing. Pops is certainly #1 on the list, I'd have him in a category all by himself. His 2018-19 accomplishments are pretty far down the list of his resume though, even with crap to work with. Maintaining an elite club for so long, rebuilding on the fly, and winning 55-60 every year with no rebuild or top draft picks is incredible.

Stevens is tier 2. I'm open to considering Spo in their as well, but I'd probably put him in 3.
   2065. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:06 AM (#5844161)
I don't know my tiers, but Pops is clearly #1 in a group by himself.

I likely have Spoelstra in that next group though - I think he's very good. Also, look at those Dallas rosters - they're ... not great!
   2066. DCA Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5844175)
I think Popovich and Kerr are the easy top 2. It's hard to rank 30 coaches when many are at a similar level. But head-to-head can be done.

From the Warriors point of view, would you trade Kerr for the coach of any other team? That's 28 no ways and 1 probably not (Pop).

Any non-Spurs team, trade their coach for Kerr or Pop? Absolutely. As the Spurs, I'd keep Pop over everybody, even Kerr.

To get a ranking, you need to HTH every pair (that's 870 permutations but probably only 100 or so that are at all interesting) and then add up the results.

Hot take: Pop stays with the Spurs longer than Kerr with the Warriors. Kerr seems ready to move on to the next thing.
   2067. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5844179)
So, to get the conversation back to something we all care about, I am not upset about the Ryan Saunders hire in Minnesota. I think it is more likely that he will align with Rosas than a more experienced coach, that he will be comfortable with the "offensive/defensive coördinator" situation the front office seems to want, and that whatever weaknesses in in-game decision making he has will be ultimately less important than having the entire management of the team aligned. I mean, Saunders isn't the coach of a championship team, but the Wolves aren't going to be a championship level team any time soon, so ... ?
   2068. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5844186)
re: Kerr -

Is it a point against Kerr (if true) that some recent rumors list him as one of the main reasons why Durant seems likely to bolt?

(Or does it just add more fuel to my ever-growing belief that maybe KD is just an overly sensitive and insecure weirdo?)
   2069. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5844188)
Amidst a conversation about Lillard getting the supermax:
Dan Devine @YourManDevine
That extension, per @BobbyMarks42, would pay Dame $42.6M in 2021-22, $46M in 2022-23, $49.4M in 2023-24, and $52.8M in 2024-25, his age 34-season: http://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/26707401/next-moves-blazers-lillard-supermax-free-agent-questions …

That is a *lot* of millions for an age-34 season, even of a player you absolutely love.

(I obviously think they should keep him forever, just posting to show how big these supermax contracts are getting.)
   2070. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5844190)
That is a lot of money.
   2071. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:49 AM (#5844195)
So, to get the conversation back to something we all care about, I am not upset about the Ryan Saunders hire in Minnesota. I think it is more likely that he will align with Rosas than a more experienced coach, that he will be comfortable with the "offensive/defensive coördinator" situation the front office seems to want, and that whatever weaknesses in in-game decision making he has will be ultimately less important than having the entire management of the team aligned. I mean, Saunders isn't the coach of a championship team, but the Wolves aren't going to be a championship level team any time soon, so ... ?

I think it's unfortunate for Rosas, though I also generally agree with your take. My concern is this: how bad does it have to go for Rosas to be able to fire him, and how long will he have to wait? I think if he a. wasn't given the interim tag last year and b. had a different last name, there is almost certainly no way he's the hire, right?

But yeah, all that said, I think it will probably be fine.
   2072. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:55 AM (#5844198)
it's hard for me to look past GSW's overwhelming talent advantage when I haven't seen what Kerr can do in other contexts.

Pre-KD was only 2 years, but I'm pretty comfortable giving Kerr a TON of credit for developing that talent/unleashing what he did on the league. It was not at all clear the W's were that good, much less that dominant, before he took over.

I also don't put Spo or Stevens ahead of him; I can at least buy Spo in the same level as Kerr but definitely not Stevens. Carlisle is another tough one for me.
   2073. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 21, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5844200)
These supermax deals are great for the individual players and seem problematic for the franchises, who either need to give large sums of money to players about to hit their late-stage career or alienate their franchise players by not giving them out.

How did this even came up during the bargaining process? Did the players push for these or did the owners?
   2074. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:00 PM (#5844202)
I think it's unfortunate for Rosas, though I also generally agree with your take. My concern is this: how bad does it have to go for Rosas to be able to fire him, and how long will he have to wait? I think if he a. wasn't given the interim tag last year and b. had a different last name, there is almost certainly no way he's the hire, right?

I mean, if the price of going outside the country club for Rosas is a couple of years of Saunders, that's totally OK with me. Saunders certainly doesn't move the on-court needle, but the players seem to like him, and given the shitshow that they've had for the last n years, that's got to count for something.
   2075. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:02 PM (#5844204)
Like, having a low-drama coaching situation will free the front office up to worry about the real trainwreck, which is Wiggins.
   2076. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5844205)
Also, look at those Dallas rosters - they're ... not great!

Agree, but again, we seem to give this kind of extra credit to exactly two guys, Carlisle and Spoelstra. I've never really understood that.
   2077. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:04 PM (#5844206)
These supermax deals are great for the individual players and seem problematic for the franchises, who either need to give large sums of money to players about to hit their late-stage career or alienate their franchise players by not giving them out.

How did this even came up during the bargaining process? Did the players push for these or did the owners?

Totally agree. And my understanding is this was thought to be a tool for teams, especially in smaller markets, to have an advantage in free agency (in response to the Heat signing LeBron and Bosh).
   2078. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:05 PM (#5844208)
Like, having a low-drama coaching situation will free the front office up to worry about the real trainwreck, which is Wiggins.

Ha. I'm convinced Rosas will find a way to move him, surely that's a top priority. Presumably in exchange for another bad contract.
   2079. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5844209)
Ha. I'm convinced Rosas will find a way to move him, surely that's a top priority. Presumably in exchange for another bad contract.

Probably. Maybe that bad contract could at least take fewer midrange jumpers.
   2080. JJ1986 Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5844210)
I said it at the time, but I still maintain that the sole purpose of the Supermax was to keep Durant in OKC. They just introduced it a year too late.
   2081. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5844212)
Auerbach: Auerbach coached before the Celtics and before Russell. He went 49-11 with the Washington Capitols in the BAA in 1946-47, which was the beginning of the NBA. He had one losing season as a coach, going 28-29 with the Tri-Cities Blackhawks in 1949-50. The titles were all with Russell.
Popovich: As I have said a couple of times, I think the last two years are the most impressive for him, as he has had pretty good teams without Robinson, Duncan, or Leonard.
Riley: To me, what Riley did in New York is the most impressive part of his resume.
Jackson: The keys to Jackson's record for me are going 55-27 without Jordan (50-32 PYTH) and how much the Lakers improved when they hired him both times.

As noted, Kerr has always had the killer talent, but there is something special about the guy. When Jack McCallum, the long-time SI NBA writer retired, he said he would miss three things:

Talking to Joe Dumars about life
Talking to Steve Kerr about life
Watching Michael Jordan play in person

McCallum went on to say that Dumars and Kerr were two of the most exceptional people he had ever met, irrespective of basketball.

So, I think Kerr is one of those people who is just a natural leader. I personally would be cool with it if he wanted to be Governor of California. But I don't think you can put him with those other guys as a coach right now.

Guys coaching now: I think that Carlisle and Spoelstra are both smart guys and good coaches. I don't see much evidence that they are better than several other smart guys, like Stotts, Rivers, Stevens, Clifford, Malone, Budenholzer, Casey, and probably a few others. I remember when Malone got canned in Sacramento and was hired in Denver, DeMarcus Cousins stuck up for him on Twitter. That showed me something because Cousins is not the easiest guy to get along with for a coach.
   2082. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5844214)
These supermax deals are great for the individual players and seem problematic for the franchises, who either need to give large sums of money to players about to hit their late-stage career or alienate their franchise players by not giving them out.


Yeah, I'm in the group who believes the supermax hasn't worked out the way it was intended. Instead of giving teams a better shot at keeping their homegrown stars, it basically just serves as a tax on keeping those players, usually with negative long term consequences. Anyone who qualifies for a supermax will take it as an insult if they're not offered one, so their teams are pretty much forced to spend more, even for loyal/happy players who otherwise would have resigned for the regular max.

I like the idea someone (sorry, can't remember who) suggested that the team should only have to pay the regular max, and the league should cover the rest. That would reward homegrown players for being loyal without crippling their teams financially.
   2083. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5844216)
In no particular order:

* The supermax is an absolute franchise killer. My understanding is that it's a direct reaction to Durant joining the W's (with echoes of the Heatles)... because clearly if OKC had been able to pay him even more money he'd have stayed? Maybe having John Wall or Lillard stay around is good for marketing but paying them that much of your cap guarantees a dead end team (yes, Lillard is much better, obviously, but not a bargain at that price).

* Do we really have any idea what Ryan Saunders will be as a coach yet? Taking over midseason doesn't give you that much insight, no training camp and baggage from Thinks. He's 33 years old! I mean, obviously it reeks of nepotism but I don't think we really have any idea if this is a good hire or not.

* The Heat rosters since LeBron left have basically been garbage. I don't think they have a top 50 NBA player and this is a star based league. Even if all Spoelstra has made is a passable, not great, chicken salad, he is starting with absolute ####.

* If you penalize Kerr in the hypothetical future for Durant bolting, you have to ding Pop a ton for Leonard, right? And Spoelstra for LeBron? And maybe Stevens for Irving if that happens? Players leave, it happens. Players especially leave when they want bigger roles, which tends to happen on these great teams with more talent than basketballs. Frankly keeping GSW together and high profile as long as they have is pretty crazy.
   2084. spivey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:13 PM (#5844217)
I don't think Lillard is worth the super max. For many guys, when they become supermax eligible, you're still paying a lot of that money on the downside of his career. They're also more guys eligible than should be getting it. It'd be interesting to see if they don't offer it, and if he feels slighted.

My memory is same as jmurph in 2077. Things like these always have unintended consequences. Really, the number of players/teams where the supermax applies is small.
   2085. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:16 PM (#5844218)
I like the idea someone (sorry, can't remember who) suggested that the team should only have to pay the regular max, and the league should cover the rest. That would reward homegrown players for being loyal without crippling their teams financially.

Or make the amount above that line not count against the cap.
   2086. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5844219)
Or make the amount above that line not count against the cap.


Yeah, at minimum this seems like an obvious tweak to the rule that needs to happen.
   2087. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:19 PM (#5844221)
Re: only Carlisle and Spoelstra getting credit for coaching bad rosters into mediocrity, I've always thought Steve Clifford has gotten the absolute most out of his generally untalented misfit teams (even Kemba for all of his highlights is a pretty flawed player). The difference of course is he's never had an actually good roster to show the other side of the coaching stack the way Spoelstra and Carlisle have. Clifford might be a great coach at turning a contender into a champion, or he might not, we just don't know.
   2088. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:22 PM (#5844224)
The funny thing to me with Carlisle and Spoelstra is that one guy cemented a sterling reputation based on the 2011 Finals, and uh, boy do I have some news for you about who the opposing coach was in that series!

   2089. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5844225)
* If you penalize Kerr in the hypothetical future for Durant bolting, you have to ding Pop a ton for Leonard, right? And Spoelstra for LeBron? And maybe Stevens for Irving if that happens? Players leave, it happens. Players especially leave when they want bigger roles, which tends to happen on these great teams with more talent than basketballs. Frankly keeping GSW together and high profile as long as they have is pretty crazy.


Did any of those players leave BECAUSE of their relationship with their coach? If not, then I don't really think it's the same thing. YMMV.

(Note: I wouldn't penalize Kerr if Durant leaves, either)
   2090. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:35 PM (#5844227)
Is it a point against Kerr (if true) that some recent rumors list him as one of the main reasons why Durant seems likely to bolt?

Is this really a thing? I have missed these rumors.
   2091. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:36 PM (#5844228)
Oh, I totally agree, I wouldn't penalize any of the coaches in these cases (or most cases, honestly, e.g. I have a tough time blaming Stan Van for the Dwight kerfuffle).
   2092. spivey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5844230)
Durant made it sound like on his first burner tweet that he didn't like Donovan either, right?

Durant may just be one of those guys that won't be happy in any situation in the NBA. Kyrie seems like he may be similar. It's quite interesting that the rumor is they team up. I could see their personalities meshing or I could see them growing to hate each other.
   2093. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5844232)
Not to Simmons it, but Durant just kinda doesn't seem like a happy person in general, right?
   2094. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5844240)
Not to Simmons it, but Durant just kinda doesn't seem like a happy person in general, right?


Remember when he was a young star in OKC and he had the ultimate nice guy reputation? Things have sure changed since then...
   2095. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5844247)
Who knows what's in someone's heart. I think people project a lot on Durant. He seems fine during the games. He has good body language on the bench. Even he and Draymond are always laughing it up together. Who knows? All I know is he's a much better player now than when he came to the Warriors. I think he must be satisfied with that even if he leaves.

Speaking of Draymond...I really enjoy this new Draymond that doesn't beef with the refs all game. The Warriors have done a good job clamping down on all that BS, generally. It's like playing the Rockets held up a mirror to their own worst impulses and they were repulsed by it.
   2096. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5844248)
Is it a point against Kerr (if true) that some recent rumors list him as one of the main reasons why Durant seems likely to bolt?

Is this really a thing? I have missed these rumors.


I've read a few reports/articles stating that Kerr's "prodding" is one of KD's biggest reasons (that, and the fact that the Dubs will always be Curry's team).


Random historical factoid: Speaking of the Warriors, their 5th consecutive Finals appearance broke a tie with the 1982-1985 Lakers, 1984-1987 Celtics, 2011-2014 Heat, and 2015-2018 Cavs for the 2nd longest streak in NBA history. They now stand alone, behind only (of course) the Russell era Celtics (10 straight).
   2097. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5844276)
I like the idea someone (sorry, can't remember who) suggested that the team should only have to pay the regular max, and the league should cover the rest. That would reward homegrown players for being loyal without crippling their teams financially.

Thanks, that's me. It's one of my pet CBA proposals that the supermax should be treated just like the veteran minimum, whereby the league reimburses the extra payroll expense and it doesn't count against the cap. The veteran minimum rule is genius, and the supermax rule as implemented is the opposite. The league focused on player financial incentives and ignored competitive incentives in crafting the rule, resulting in the supermax being much more of a team penalty than a player benefit.
   2098. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5844277)
Rodney Hood has now been swept out of the playoffs by the Warriors for three straight years, for three different franchises.
   2099. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5844280)
Any non-Spurs team, trade their coach for Kerr or Pop? Absolutely. As the Spurs, I'd keep Pop over everybody, even Kerr.


The only coach I'd consider trading Pop's career for is Red Auerbach. But his future? The guy is 70 years old. Only a small handful of coaches have ever stayed on the job after that age, with the oldest being 72 year old Hubie Brown, tied with some guy I looked up and already forgot about.

I'd say the current baseball equivalent is Justin Verlander. At 36, he's still at the top of his game, as good a pitcher as anyone. But I'm not going to trade Acuna or Vladito straight up for him.
   2100. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5844282)
Dandy, that's a good idea about the supermax. As it is though, I like it a lot better than what we had before.

Now teams actually have to think about whether it makes sense to offer that kind of contract to their stars who are not top 5 in the league. Lillard's probably what, top 20-25? But definitely not top 5. Do you offer that kind of deal or just hold the line at 30 million or so and be prepared to move on if he goes elsewhere?
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