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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6784 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   2101. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5844283)
flip
   2102. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5844285)
Rodney Hood has now been swept out of the playoffs by the Warriors for three straight years, for three different franchises.

Great trivia.
   2103. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:55 PM (#5844286)
Rodney Hood has now been swept out of the playoffs by the Warriors for three straight years, for three different franchises.


I remember hearing a joke circa 1999 that Shaq's nickname should be floor cuz he always gets swept. In his first 6 postseasons, his teams went 1-23 in their final series:

1994 Magic - Swept by Pacers in first round, 0-3
1995 Magic - Swept by Rockets in Finals, 0-4
1996 Magic - Swept by Bulls in ECF, 0-4
1997 Lakers - Lost to Jazz in 2nd round, 1-4
1998 Lakers - Swept by Jazz in WCF, 0-4
1999 Lakers - Swept by Spurs in 2nd round, 0-4

Things turned around a bit for Shaq's teams immediately afterwards, however...
   2104. Booey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5844289)
Lillard's probably what, top 20-25?


Oh, he's a lot better than that. I'd say he's in the 10-15 range. But even so, will he still be in his 30's? It's a valid concern.
   2105. Stevey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5844290)
These supermax deals are great for the individual players


You don't think Lillard would get a lot more if there were no restrictions at all on his pay? I would bet he'd start at $50M/year.

Nate Silver put him at 5/$261M going into this season.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/carmelo/damian-lillard/
   2106. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5844294)
The "no restrictions at all on his pay" would have to include having no salary cap. As it is the supermax seems to already be a source of regret for every team that has signed a player to one, except Steph Curry. And those are the minority of teams that were confident enough in their stars to hand out supermax contracts.
   2107. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5844296)
Lillard's probably what, top 20-25?

Probably 10-15 without thinking about it too much.
   2108. Stevey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:08 PM (#5844298)
Correct, no caps, no luxury taxes, nothing. Teams may be hindered by having to dedicate a larger percentage of their payroll to one player, but I would bet not as much as Lillard is hindered by not having a true free market for his services.
   2109. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5844299)
You don't think Lillard would get a lot more if there were no restrictions at all on his pay? I would bet he'd start at $50M/year.


I guess I should say they are great for individual players compared to the previous CBA. No cap at all on the max would be best for players at the top.

If that were the case and Lillard hit free agency tomorrow, would he be worth $50M/year? Maybe. I have a hard time wrapping my mind around it because I'm used to comparing these deals to the system that's currently in place.
   2110. Stevey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5844301)
I have a hard time wrapping my mind around it because I'm used to comparing these deals to the system that's currently in place.


Same here. The artificially deflating the market at the top also brings about inflating prices on middle tier players. Would the market for them completely bottom out (kind of like MLB recently)?
   2111. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5844308)
Ayton/Bagley/Doncic/Jackson/Young make All Rookie 1st Team:
Micah Adams @MicahAdams13
All-Rookie First Team is the top-5 picks for the first time since the incredible draft class of 1984.
   2112. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5844322)
Troy Machir @TroyMachir 42m42 minutes ago

If Juwan Howard gets the Michigan job, he will become the 11th current CBB coach to also appear in NBA Jam.

Patrick Ewing
Anfernee Hardaway
Bobby Hurley
Dan Majerle
Danny Manning
Donyell Marshall
Aaron McKie
Terry Porter
Jerry Stackhouse
Damon Stoudamire


I've seen some rumors saying he's getting the job.
   2113. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 02:55 PM (#5844324)
Correct, no caps, no luxury taxes, nothing. Teams may be hindered by having to dedicate a larger percentage of their payroll to one player, but I would bet not as much as Lillard is hindered by not having a true free market for his services.


No cap or anything, Lakers would probably try to surround Lebron with a 250 million payroll. In the context of a cap though, that Lillard deal is almost 50% of your cap space. That seems hard to work with unless the player in question is Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Durant, or someone on that level. Lillard's great be seems like the next level down from that group.
   2114. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: May 21, 2019 at 03:00 PM (#5844327)
If Juwan Howard gets the Michigan job, he will become the 11th current CBB coach to also appear in NBA Jam.

Patrick Ewing
Anfernee Hardaway
Bobby Hurley
Dan Majerle
Danny Manning
Donyell Marshall
Aaron McKie
Terry Porter
Jerry Stackhouse
Damon Stoudamire


Mind blown. Damon Stoudamire and Jerry Stackhouse are Division I head coaches? I thought I kept track of this stuff.

Georgetown
Memphis
?
?
Wake Forest? I thought he got fired from there. Somewhere else?
?
Temple
?
?
?
   2115. Stevey Posted: May 21, 2019 at 03:07 PM (#5844329)
No cap or anything, Lakers would probably try to surround Lebron with a 250 million payroll. In the context of a cap though, that Lillard deal is almost 50% of your cap space. That seems hard to work with unless the player in question is Lebron, Giannis, Kawhi, Durant, or someone on that level. Lillard's great be seems like the next level down from that group.



I don't disagree with any of us. But the comment was that the supermax was great for the players. I guess for the middle tier players who benefit from the underpaying of the top guys, but my random guess is that about 20 players would top the supermax if restrictions were removed.
   2116. Tin Angel Posted: May 21, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5844333)
Mind blown. Damon Stoudamire and Jerry Stackhouse are Division I head coaches? I thought I kept track of this stuff.


I was more surprised that Bobby Hurley was in NBA Jam. I don’t remember a second of his NBA career.
   2117. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 21, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5844337)
I was more surprised that Bobby Hurley was in NBA Jam. I don’t remember a second of his NBA career.

I do, but only because I thought he was the same guy as Bob Sura for a long time. In my defense, I was watching on SD 90s TVs.
   2118. KronicFatigue Posted: May 21, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5844358)
Earlier some posts were speculating on the talent of Kerr as a coach and it got me wondering about the chicken-egg relationship between the splash brothers and the modern NBA game. I vaguely remember Mark Jackson being the coach as Curry was emerging as a star, but failed to fully capitalize on his ability. The Splash brothers were breaking records under Jackson, but Kerr gets a certain amount of credit for fully unleashing them (and the rest of the team) IMO.

But when exactly did the NBA adopt this new game? And was the transformation sped up because of the Warriors success? The timing seems so odd, that two of the greatest shooters of all time happen to play together on a dynasty that's happening while their best skill is also the focus of most (all?) nba teams.
   2119. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5844361)
my random guess is that about 20 players would top the supermax if restrictions were removed.


That would have been my guess, but I think I’ve been corrected on Lillard being only a top 25. He’s top 5-15 based on metrics like WS, WS48, and VORP. He’s about my limit for a super max, I might say yes but I’d be very uncomfortable doing so. And it appears players better than him are in short supply.
   2120. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:01 PM (#5844363)
Players I’d consider for supermax. Rules: includes players on their first big contract like Embiid, but excluding guys on rookie deals or soon to be picked, so no Zion here.

Curry
Durant
Jokic
Lillard
Harden
Gobert
Westbrook
George
Lebron
Davis
Giannis
Kawhi
Embiid
Butler
Beal
Uncle Drew



   2121. Rally Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5844364)
Of that group, how many would I pay, if allowed, significantly more than super max?

Giannis
Durant
Curry
Davis

Lebron would have been a yes up till this year, but age, lack of defense, and probability of health going forward bring him down to mere super max.
   2122. aberg Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5844371)
I have always been in favor of allowing teams to pay ~2 players that they drafted any amount they choose on an extension with only the regular max counting against the cap. It seems to serve both masters- the players who don't want to artificially depress the value of a superstar (or crowd out the middle class by paying superstars an obscene % of a limited cap), and the owners by keeping homegrown stars in town.

It would be fascinating to see how the negotiations would play out. When Durant was a FA deciding between OKC and GS, how much more would OKC have had to offer him to get him to stay? They could already offer a bit more year over year, plus the additional guaranteed year. What if they could offer $5m more every year? $10m? $25m? Where would most players blink?
   2123. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5844375)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 54m54 minutes ago

Portland Trail Blazers head coach Terry Stotts has signed a contract extension.
   2124. aberg Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5844376)
But when exactly did the NBA adopt this new game? And was the transformation sped up because of the Warriors success?


In 13/14 (Jackson's final year), the Warrior's took 24.8 3s per game, 6th in the league. With a very similar roster, they bumped that to 30.8 (1st) in Kerr's first year. I don't think Kerr ushered in a new playing style on his own. I think he recognized that his two best players were the two best three point shooters in the league.

In 08/09, the Rio Grande Valley Vipers were 8th in the G League with 17.2 3pa per game. After that year, they ended their partnership with the Pelicans and became an affiliate of the Rockets, who turned them into a laboratory. They hired Chris Finch as their coach and he spent two years there, followed by Nick Nurse for the next two. Nurse is coaching in the ECF and Finch has been a lead assistant on some really good teams and a finalist for some HC jobs. In 09/10, they went up to 23.6/2nd in 3pa and rank, then 27.3/1, 30/1, 27.1/1, 45.4/1. In those 5 years, they won 2 league titles, went to another final, and went to another semifinal.

They played at a very fast pace and shot threes at >40% of their FGA (as high as 46%). Even Kerr only bumped the Warriors up to 36%. The Vipers expirmented with a new style of basketball and it worked extremely well. This year, 14 teams cracked 36% in 3PAr. The Rockets were at 51%. The Warriors winning titles with jump shooters probably helped diminish the media narrative that you can't win rings as a jump shooting team, but the wheels were in motion half a decade earlier and I would say that RGV (and, by extension, Houston) had more impact on it than anyone in Oakland.
   2125. aberg Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:52 PM (#5844377)
Worth pointing out the difference Draymond's regular season vs playoff numbers this year.

Regular season: 31 MPG, 7.4 ppg, 2.5 S+B, 12.9 PER, .100 WS/48, 2.0 BPM
Playoffs: 38 MPG, 13.6 ppg, 3.1 S+B, 18.0 PER, .139 WS/48, 5.7 BPM

He visibly played himself into shape this year, but he's also clearly trying a lot harder and taking the whole team to another level.
   2126. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:53 PM (#5844380)
It would also be fascinating to see, for instance, just how much money New Orleans would be willing to offer Anthony Davis to stay if the cap were no concern, and how much money he'd be willing to leave on the table to get out.

It would also be interesting to see just how much the Knicks and Lakers would be offering New Orleans for the #1 pick right now, if drafting Zion meant obtaining perpetual, exclusive rights to pay him as much as they want. How many future firsts would they be willing to put on the table for that, and how much would it take to tempt New Orleans to accept? Probably "a LOT" and "not enough" respectively, but it would be interesting.

In general I suspect that if drafting a guy confers perpetual, exclusive rights to pay him as much as you want, then the once or twice a decade a generational prospect is coming up there would be widespread tanking like you ain't ever seen before.

And there might also be more instances of that generational prospect, once, say, Cleveland lands the #1 pick, threatening publicly to go play in China unless he gets drafted by a richer team.
   2127. KronicFatigue Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:55 PM (#5844381)
Thanks aberg for 2124 and I'm loving your idea for 2122.

What happens if a team has 2 homegrown players and a 3rd player is ready for a contract? If the team trades one of the original two, what are the cap implications to the new team? Does the new team have to have less than 2 over-max players?
   2128. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 21, 2019 at 05:55 PM (#5844382)
The timing seems so odd, that two of the greatest shooters of all time happen to play together on a dynasty that's happening while their best skill is also the focus of most (all?) nba teams
Honestly, this aspect of it is probably as much about 1) the talent pool being bigger than it ever has been, due to global media proliferation, better international scouting, and good old fashioned population growth, and 2) this last decade being the first one where players spent their whole lives with a three point line at all levels. The NBA added the 3pt line in 1979; the NCAA in 1986; high school in 1987*. Steph Curry was born in 1988 (fun fact: he was born on my second birthday and Einstein's 109th).

* Depending on the level, there was some experimentation earlier, but these were the years the arc was universally adopted at each level.
   2129. aberg Posted: May 21, 2019 at 06:49 PM (#5844390)
What happens if a team has 2 homegrown players and a 3rd player is ready for a contract? If the team trades one of the original two, what are the cap implications to the new team? Does the new team have to have less than 2 over-max players?


Great questions. I think these are all up for discussion. Here are a few caveats I would add:

-I would cap it at two players per team, but I could see an argument for having no limit to that.
-You would need a rule to prevent a de facto sign-and-trade. I would propose no trading these players for two years after contract becomes effective.
-If you do trade the player, there should probably be some sort of cap punishment on the new team. Maybe something like he counts at max +10% or his actually salary, whichever is lesser.
-If we settle on two players per team, a team that already has 2 couldn't trade for a third.
   2130. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 21, 2019 at 07:32 PM (#5844393)
I don't think a no-limit rule would work league-wide, because it would be too big of an advantage for rich teams. Even if it were, for the sake of argument, Objectively Good For The League, every time a smaller-market team let go of a talented guy they drafted for whatever reason, it would be something their fans would latch onto, and understandably so.

If you do trade the player, there should probably be some sort of cap punishment on the new team
This part seems simple enough: the cap punishment is that the full contract counts against the acquiring team's cap. If that's insufficient deterrence, maybe for the first two years the salary matching for the trade would have to be against the full contract and afterwards it can be against the normal max.

EDIT: I can't read, apparently, since a close variant of my "clever" twist on the hypothetical trade restrictions was in the original post.
   2131. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2019 at 08:41 PM (#5844410)
I don't know my tiers, but Pops is clearly #1 in a group by himself.


I think that Pop is often overrated among NBA fans. He never won back to back and has had a ton of early exits compared to his peers among great coaches.

Coaching in the NBA has kind of two main components:
1. Floor raising: can you take a team full of guys and make them play better than the sum of their parts? Can you get players to commit to an offensive and defensive system that allows them to work together?
2. Ceiling lifters: can you take talent to the next level? Can you make the kind of adjustments in a 7 game series that swing the advantage to your team? Can you take a championship caliber team and lead them to the promised land? Can you do it multiple years in a row?

Pop has always been better at 1 than 2. For all of his brilliance, he's often been very rigid in the playoffs.

Of active coaches: Kerr has shown much more of 2 than of 1. Stevens has shown much more of 1 than of 2. Spo has shown some of both, as has Carlisle.

For me, my coaching tiers are:

Difference makers: Pop, Kerr & Spo
Great regular season guys: Doc, Stevens, Carlisle
Above average: Stotts, Bud, Snyder, Clifford
Everyone else

   2132. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 08:50 PM (#5844417)
Not a lot of defence in the ACC tonight.
   2133. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 08:59 PM (#5844422)
I'm not Canadian -- I just live in Toronto and set my language to English -- Canadian, so I get all the Canadian autocompletisms.
   2134. jmurph Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:35 PM (#5844443)
Mirotic’s unwavering belief that he’s an elite shooter is my favorite thing about the Bucks. No shot is too deep for this guy.
   2135. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 09:56 PM (#5844450)
Gasol is looking pretty good tonight.
   2136. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:13 PM (#5844457)
Kawhi is exhausted. They're up by 12. You HAVE to get him some rest.
   2137. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5844464)
It's funny how much better the Barneys look when they don't let the Bucks get out and run.
   2138. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:29 PM (#5844467)
Bucks defense is really playing stupidly tonight, helping at all the wrong times. I thought this stuff left town with Jason Kidd.
   2139. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:32 PM (#5844471)
All right, so how does this change the way we look at this series? Toronto looks great, the Bucks look confused, and the series looks like it's tied up. Has Toronto just figured something out, or is this just a blip?
   2140. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5844473)
The schedule is not going to do either of these two teams any favours in the Finals. Yeesh.
   2141. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:33 PM (#5844474)
All right, so how does this change the way we look at this series?

Nobody's ever as good as they look when whipping someone's ass by 40 points; and conversely.
   2142. puck Posted: May 21, 2019 at 10:55 PM (#5844490)
Chris Boucher looks ridiculously skinny, but 6'10" 200? Is that possible?
   2143. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 07:12 AM (#5844515)
Yes. Manute Bol was 200 pounds at 7-7. That’s his listed weight on bbref. Not accurate for most of his NBA career but probably close for college and his rookie year.
   2144. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:19 AM (#5844524)
All right, so how does this change the way we look at this series?


How many times in NBA history has the home team won the first 2 games of a best of 7, then lost the next 2 on the road? 100 times? 200?

Milwaukee is still the favorite in the series, partly because they are the better team and partly because they'll play 2 of the last 3 at home, assuming it goes that far.
   2145. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 08:26 AM (#5844526)
Actually, Basketball-reference has a page that makes it easy to answer that question. 58 times if I'm reading it correctly. Of those, the team that won the first 2 won the series 48 times.

https://www.basketball-reference.com/friv/7-game-playoff-series-outcomes-22111.html
   2146. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 22, 2019 at 09:39 AM (#5844546)
Coaching in the NBA has kind of two main components:
1. Floor raising: can you take a team full of guys and make them play better than the sum of their parts? Can you get players to commit to an offensive and defensive system that allows them to work together?
2. Ceiling lifters: can you take talent to the next level? Can you make the kind of adjustments in a 7 game series that swing the advantage to your team? Can you take a championship caliber team and lead them to the promised land? Can you do it multiple years in a row?

Pop has always been better at 1 than 2. For all of his brilliance, he's often been very rigid in the playoffs.

Of active coaches: Kerr has shown much more of 2 than of 1. Stevens has shown much more of 1 than of 2. Spo has shown some of both, as has Carlisle.
I think this is about right though I don't want to sell Pops short on ceiling lifting - because he's been very good at making more marginal talents into good pieces, we set expectations as if they have even more gears to them.
Kerr and Spo are in that next tier for me. Stevens might be. Bud might be (he's much more #1). Doc and Carlisle are in the discussion. So is D'Antoni.
This probably demands more thought than I'd give it during the season.
   2147. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: May 22, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5844548)
Hasn't made the league yet, but Raphaiel Putney (threes + shot blocking type) is a C/F in the G-League who is listed at 6-10 185.
   2148. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: May 22, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5844549)
Hasn't made the league yet, but Raphaiel Putney (threes + shot blocking type) is a C/F in the G-League who is listed at 6-10 185.

I am a big dude, but the thought that a guy who is 6" taller than me could be 75lbs lighter is ... upsetting.
   2149. jmurph Posted: May 22, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5844558)
How many times in NBA history has the home team won the first 2 games of a best of 7, then lost the next 2 on the road? 100 times? 200?

Milwaukee is still the favorite in the series, partly because they are the better team and partly because they'll play 2 of the last 3 at home, assuming it goes that far.

I think, at their respective bests, these two teams are practically even. But yeah, having 2 out of the remaining 3 at home is huge.
   2150. jmurph Posted: May 22, 2019 at 10:10 AM (#5844559)
But either way, thanks to Toronto for extending the series and saving us from a week without basketball.
   2151. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5844567)
I'd like to see one of these teams be best prepared to give GSW a real contest. But not at the price of a week long break.

I don't think there's much evidence that a long break is good for a team. Saw a stat that teams heading into the finals with at least a week of break are 14-11. That doesn't seem like a big deal, especially considering the selective sampling being done - these are teams that swept the conference finals or at least won it in 5, so they are probably the better team anyway.

In the Warriors' specific case though I think the break will work to their advantage since it gives some of their injured players a chance to work their way back. If Milwaukee wins in 7, I don't think they will be better or worse for a GSW matchup than if they had swept. They are a young team, deep enough to not overplay their stars, and reasonably healthy.
   2152. spivey Posted: May 22, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5844586)
Though I'm rooting for the Bucks, I like Toronto. The city, players, and organization. Part of me is happy that they're playing well, though part of me is now concerned about the rest of the series. I still favor the Bucks, but a lot of it is home court. I didn't get to watch the game, but the Bucks need to be winning the free throw battle. That's harder on the road, but still need to do it.

Bledsoe has to have a good game or two. I've never really trusted him, even granting he was very good this year and that the deal he got is probably fair.

I'm happy for Lowry. I feel like this series has gone a long way to helping him rehab his playoff rep. Hell, some of the other guys too.
   2153. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5844632)
Good article on TOR-MIL by Arnovitz. I think this approach can work against Toronto, but I'm deeply skeptical that it will work against the Warriors.

The Bucks' top-ranked defense has established and refined its principles over the course of the regular season and playoffs. While Milwaukee has introduced a tweak or two against specific matchups, its broad strategy hasn't changed. The Bucks are fully committed to packing the paint to ward off penetration and prevent easy shots inside. Help will be dispatched from marginal and even some average shooters, which will leave some open shots on the perimeter. So long as the integrity of the interior defense isn't compromised, this is a trade-off Milwaukee is content to live with.


Yet the Bucks are resolute. They believe in their schemes, their mode of preparation and the philosophy that guides their systems. After the game, Antetokounmpo rejected the notion that the Bucks' failures in Games 3 and 4 demanded adjustments.

"We're just going to keep doing the same thing," Antetokounmpo said. "We want the other guys to take shots. We've got to keep being aggressive defensively on Kawhi, try to limit his shots. But at the end of the day, if guys come off the bench and they knock down shots, we've got to live with it, we're doing our job."


Even the now dynastic Warriors had to make an adjustment down 2-1 against Memphis in 2015, having Andrew Bogut guard Tony Allen and play free safety in the paint. And then starting Andre Iguodala and creating the original Small Ball Death Squad (feat. Harrison Barnes!) that year in the Finals against Cleveland. They have flowed with off-ball cuts through most of the games against Portland, waiting to unleash the Curry-Green PnR until key second half spots.

I could see the Bucks being down 2-1 against GSW with a chance to even the series in MIL. Will Bud make the right adjustment and will the team be able to execute (and then get the breaks)? A scenario like that could define Bud as a coach/this Bucks team, at least for this season, and could be the difference between a 4-1 gentleman's sweep and an epic 7 game series that the Bucks could absolutely win.

   2154. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5844651)
[2153] I'm in agreement with the concern over Bud's seeming unwillingness to adjust.

I could see the Bucks being down 2-1 against GSW with a chance to even the series in MIL

MIL and TOR both have homecourt.
   2155. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5844656)
I would love to see Giannis smack Drake in the face. What a clown.
   2156. DCA Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5844657)
MIL and TOR both have homecourt.

I may be overthinking this, but might this be an advantage to GSW? Or rather, less of a disadvantage than usual.

We know the Warriors can adjust and win a series even when they are down games, and without home court. And they are a pretty strong road team generally. If they can steal game 1 or 2 on the road, that requires MIL/TOR to be able to adjust mid-series and take a road game.
   2157. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5844662)
Warriors will sweep either Milwaukee or Toronto.
   2158. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5844664)
I may be overthinking this, but might this be an advantage to GSW? Or rather, less of a disadvantage than usual.


Granting that all this is very much on the margins, I think HCA is not a big advantage for MIL or TOR but would be a huge advantage to GSW, so about the same delta as usual. If GSW had homecourt, Games 1, 5, and 7 would be crazy environments. Game 1 the well-rested, antsy Warriors fans would go nuts. Game 5 would be potentially a super pivotal game in a tied series, and in all cases potentially the last game ever at Oracle. Game 7 would be guaranteed the last game ever at Oracle and for all the marbles.

Game 2 would probably be a bit of a letdown chance to steal, but games 1, 5, and 7 at GSW would be really, really tough for the road team.
   2159. Tin Angel Posted: May 22, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5844666)
Isn't it also possible nine days off hurts the Warriors?
   2160. JC in DC Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:08 PM (#5844668)
Not enough that it matters. They're way better than either EC team.
   2161. sardonic Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5844671)
I think in a vacuum the time off would hurt the Warriors, unless it's the difference between having KD or even Boogie on the court. Don't forget that Iguodala is also currently nursing a soft muscle injury and Curry has his finger thing.

The Warriors cared enough about the extra days off that they played Curry the entire 4th quarter in game 4, something I can't recall them ever doing, even in desperation mode against the Rockets.
   2162. spivey Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:32 PM (#5844683)
JC, can you show your work on the comment Golden State will sweep? They’ve gone to 6 games twice against teams worse than Toronto and Milwaukee. They swept Portland but hardly looked dominant doing so, imo.
   2163. Moeball Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:36 PM (#5844685)
As we have learned the last couple of years, GS's focus comes and goes. Sometimes, quite frankly, they look bored. The long regular season wears you down and sometimes the playoffs are more a matter of attrition than anything else. Teams are just trying to survive the grind. Look at Portland - had the big leads 3 games in a row mainly because they kept scoring over 60 points in the first half of each game. Then in the second half they'd be lucky if they could get to 45. Dame and CJ looked gassed at times. At any rate, it seems to me that GS looks much more focused when they are 1) on the road and 2) without KD. I don't think Milwaukee is going to experience much of a home court advantage in the Finals. I think saying GS would sweep is an overstatement but I think they are clearly capable of winning, even without KD. I'm mainly curious as to what Kerr will do with his rotations if they get both KD and Boogie back for the Finals. At this point, is a rusty Boogie an asset or a liability against a team like the Bucks?
   2164. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:51 PM (#5844689)
All right, so how does this change the way we look at this series? Toronto looks great, the Bucks look confused, and the series looks like it's tied up. Has Toronto just figured something out, or is this just a blip?

i did not think there was any chance that TOR would recover from being down 0-2, and since they quite obviously have, i'm gonna refrain from offering any further thoughts on the series.

except to respond to this:
[2153] I'm in agreement with the concern over Bud's seeming unwillingness to adjust.
iirc, there was similar constipation over budenholzer's steadfastitude after BOS beat them by 22 in game 1 of the last round. since MIL then went on to won the next 4 games by 15+ PPG, i'm not so sure budenholzer's instincts are wrong.
   2165. Rally Posted: May 22, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5844690)
Isn't it also possible nine days off hurts the Warriors?


I think the aggregate data shows that long layoffs are neither help nor hindrance.

In the specific case of GSW, I think it helps more than hurts. Increases the chance that their injured players will be ready for a return. I think the potential negative of a long layoff is the team comes back rusty, unprepared. I would be more worried about this happening to say, Milwaukee if they had swept. It's a young team in uncharted territory. For the Warriors, no such worries. They've been here before. They know what they have to do.
   2166. jmurph Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5844699)
JC, can you show your work on the comment Golden State will sweep? They’ve gone to 6 games twice against teams worse than Toronto and Milwaukee. They swept Portland but hardly looked dominant doing so, imo.

I would also be pretty surprised if this were to happen. Both teams lack LeBron, which obviously matters, but I think both are at least as good as a couple of those Cavs teams, probably better. I can see either giving Golden State a really good series.
   2167. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5844700)
Klay finally makes an all defense team!
   2168. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5844705)
Warriors will sweep either Milwaukee or Toronto.

Not likely, IMO. They struggled against lesser teams. Unless KD and Cousins are 100%, they're not the WARRIORS. I've been pimping MIL for a while, but I still wouldn't pick them against a healthy GS. If KD is less than 100%, they have a shot at winning. I'm still not convinced on TOR beating even a KD-less GS yet.
   2169. spivey Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:51 PM (#5844710)
Bledsoe made 1st team all-defense. He's struggled this playoffs (and last...), but he really was great during the regular season. Happy for him to see that rewarded.
   2170. DCA Posted: May 22, 2019 at 03:52 PM (#5844712)
At this point, is a rusty Boogie an asset or a liability against a team like the Bucks?

I worried, when KD went down, where are the points going to come from? Curry and Klay have to combine for 60 if there isn't a third scorer. There have always been guys on the bench capable of doing that (Lee, Speights). Iguodala is capable of stepping up (he did in game 6 vs HOU but not in the Blazers series). Draymond picked it up a bit in the Portland series. But that was barely enough despite the 5-0 record, four of those games could easily have gone the other way.

I would think even a rusty Boogie would be an asset as a volume bench scorer, especially if KD is limited or out. Maybe it's only for 10 minutes per game, but Curry and Klay need to rest about that much.
   2171. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 22, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5844721)
I think either Bucks or Barnies can beat GSW. GSW will be and should be favored, but 5, 6, or 7 games either way would not surprise me.
   2172. Fourth True Outcome Posted: May 22, 2019 at 06:46 PM (#5844764)
All Defense teams:

First:
Player       1st Votes 2nd Votes Pts 
Rudy Gobert  
97        2         196
Paul George  
96        3         195
Giannis      
94        5         193
Marcus Smaht 
63        19        145
Eric Bledsoe 
36        28        100 


Second:
Player        1st Votes 2nd Votes Pts 
Jrue Holiday  
31        28        90
Klay Thompson 
23        36        82
Joel Embiid   
4         72        80
Draymond Green
2         57        61
Kawhi Leonard 
5         29        39 


Closest misses were Danny Green who had 66 points and Myles Turner who had 39. Turner tweeted about the slight (he played 10 more games than Embiid, fwiw) and probably has the best case for someone who should have made it.
   2173. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: May 22, 2019 at 07:58 PM (#5844776)
Danny Green missing out on a spot despite having 69% more points (nice) than his positionally-overlapping teammate who made it, presumably because he happened to get categorized as a guard instead of a forward, is both tragic and hilarious to me.

Since we're doing some #hoopideas this week, it reminds me of my old scheme to fix the All-Star game's silly positional quotas (less of an issue now, but whatever): let the voters name 2 guards, 2 wings, and 2 bigs for each conference, and have the lowest vote-getter of those 6 come off the bench instead of starting. It doesn't matter which category gets only 1 starter, you'll end up with a plausible lineup.
   2174. tshipman Posted: May 22, 2019 at 10:29 PM (#5844803)
It's a little funny that the second team is probably better across the board than first team.

Also kinda funny that Myles Turner could end up maybe second or third in DPOY voting but not make all defense.
   2175. Booey Posted: May 22, 2019 at 11:54 PM (#5844816)
#2174 - He's not one of the 3 finalists for DPOY (Gobert, Giannis, PG-13)
   2176. tshipman Posted: May 23, 2019 at 01:28 AM (#5844828)
#2174 - He's not one of the 3 finalists for DPOY (Gobert, Giannis, PG-13)


Hmm. Good point.

Well, he probably should be.
   2177. spivey Posted: May 23, 2019 at 08:49 AM (#5844845)
Really excited about the game tonight. I'll be there!
   2178. JC in DC Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:20 AM (#5844855)
Sorry about not including my work. Obviously, it's a prediction. I can see GS losing one game, maybe game 1. Given how Green is playing, given that I think Curry is actually under-appreciated (even by me), and they play such great defense. Both Toronto and Milwaukee look "young" to me. I'm anticipating GS being able to take them away from what they do offensively and - assuming Durant is back - there's just too many offensive weapons on GS for those teams to handle.
   2179. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5844857)
I'm filled with dread about tonight's game. 30 years of not trusting the Bucks came flooding back during game 4.
   2180. spivey Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5844861)
I'm filled with dread about tonight's game. 30 years of not trusting the Bucks came flooding back during game 4.


I was a bit, initially. You're more of a long-time fan, I think. It's funny, going into the year I wasn't really a fan, I just wanted them to be good enough to enjoy the games we're going to. We'll have been to about 15-20 games after tonight, and I've really gotten invested in them.

But, it's been an incredible season any way you slice it. I think there was a question here during the season on how far Milwaukee would have to get for fans to be happy with their season. Trying to think objectively, I think they've reached that point. I'd still have a bit of disappointment - I do think they're the best team in the East. But, with how they've played this year and in these playoffs, as a collective, I think it's been very impressive.

   2181. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:34 AM (#5844864)
I'll be incredibly disappointed if the Bucks lose this series, because it would mean they were in the drivers seat and blew it. There's no guarantee that they'll be this good again any time soon.
   2182. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:41 AM (#5844867)
This could be the Bucks moment of belief like when the Warriors went down 2-1 to Memphis in 2015. An inexperienced team figuring out what it takes to get to the next level.
   2183. spivey Posted: May 23, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5844871)
Every time the Bucks have had a moment where they needed to step up this season, they did. It's probably also fair to say this is the most important game of Toronto's franchise, right?

I'm not worried so much about the Bucks believing, but executing. Of course many things can go into a game, but making or missing shots is the biggest determinant of who wins tonight. It's kind of scary to think about it that way, the lack of control, the variance - if you will. But it's been a great ride. I'm only kind of a Bucks fan, though. Stadium will be electric early, but I could see it getting antsy quick. That's happened at a number of the Bucks game I've been to. I think it's a combo of bandwagon fans, plus their team isn't a great free throw or 3pt shooting team.

Happy that what looked like the first legendary Eastern Conference playoffs in a long time is living up to the hype. I would have been happy with a Bucks sweep too, though.
   2184. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5844874)
I'm not worried so much about the Bucks believing, but executing.

I don't think it's about belief or even executing but going to a plan B on the fly when the team you've been playing 4 games straight has figured out your plan A.
   2185. spivey Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:14 AM (#5844880)
I think being at home, in a game like this, the Bucks are more likely to get the whistle. So much comes off of the initial Giannis action.

I was thinking about some potential lineup changes. I would probably try to stagger the Bledsoe/Giannis minutes a bit more. I'd still probably have Bledsoe start, just for a confidence thing, but I think I'd rather play him in more of the second unit lineups on both sides. I think he can win that battle and be more confident in his shots when they don't have elite offensive players all around him. This one kind of depends on if he's healthy enough, but I'd also like to see Brogdon play more, and probably start. They tried the big lineups for a while when he was out, but I'd rather go down with their "real" starting lineup. And then, yeah, I'd probably consider subbing Hill in for Bledsoe somewhat quickly as well.

What adjustments do you think need to be made? I mean, last game Toronto won handily. Game 3 before was right there for Milwaukee's taking if they'd made any of a number of shots down the stretch.
   2186. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:37 AM (#5844887)
Milwaukee will be fine. They are a little better than Toronto and they have HCA. Milwaukee in 7 is by far the most likely outcome here.
   2187. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5844889)
It's probably also fair to say this is the most important game of Toronto's franchise, right?


If you think whether Leonard stays depends on them winning this series, sure. I have never been convinced that is the case, though. My guess is that Leonard has either already decided to stay in Toronto or to go home and play in LA for the Clippers or the Lakers. But the only people who know ofc are Leonard and the people around him.
   2188. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: May 23, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5844896)
What adjustments do you think need to be made?

I think they need to sit Bledsoe more so when Giannis hits that wall Toronto builds to stop him, he has another shooter to kick it out to.
   2189. spivey Posted: May 23, 2019 at 11:02 AM (#5844901)
If you think whether Leonard stays depends on them winning this series, sure.

I think/thought it was true regardless of that.
   2190. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: May 23, 2019 at 11:12 AM (#5844908)
Fair enough, but if he stays, they are looking at a nice window. If he bails, they are looking at a much lower seed or a reboot starting in 2019-2020.
   2191. Moeball Posted: May 23, 2019 at 11:39 AM (#5844922)
Bucks will win G5. Only question is whether they will clinch in 6 or 7 games, but they're going to the Finals.
   2192. sardonic Posted: May 23, 2019 at 12:06 PM (#5844937)
I know the narrative has shifted in this direction recently, but an interesting video and stats breakdown of KD in the playoffs pre-Curry, and with/without Curry. Gravity can be hard to detect, and to some extent this is re-litigating the conversation between me and RR from the 2017 playoffs, but I do think Curry's gravity is very real and generates meaningfully better looks for KD than he was getting in OKC.

I still think KD is maybe the best player in the NBA right now (prob between him, Giannis and Kawhi IMO once you factor defense in) and what he does is just as impressive as what Curry does. But glad that Curry has made the most of this opportunity to put his stamp on the KD + Warriors era so emphatically this playoff run.
   2193. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5845009)
2 questions: Everyone agrees that Bledsoe pretty much sucks. But I have not been able to get the 'why' beyond he's not making shots and makes some poor decisions. Well no #### which is not directed to anyone here but at the internets as a whole. If anyone has even a hypothesis that would be cool to read.

Second, since pretty much all the guards suck bench them to start and just go big all around with Giannis initiating? Just asking. I accept scorn and mockery as feedback
   2194. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5845013)
EDIT: Apparently I'm an idiot! Sorry guys.
   2195. JJ1986 Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5845015)
Conley's kind of a surprise to me. I think that means Kemba Walker and Klay Thompson fail to qualify for the supermax.

Edit: I also think Towns misses out on a lot of money, although I would have been surprised if he made it in.
   2196. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5845017)
Are those the results, or jmuprh's picks? I'd probably have Beal over Conley, but those might be my exact picks otherwise.
   2197. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5845018)
At first glance, without digging in, I agree that Conley is a weird one. I'm unsure on Jrue, would have to dig in more. And agree that Towns is getting screwed, but I'm not sure who he replaces?
   2198. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:18 PM (#5845019)
Those are the real picks, for the record.
   2199. jmurph Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5845020)
Oh and LeBron is...questionable.
   2200. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: May 23, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5845021)
https://twitter.com/andyblarsen/status/1131621727786553344

Looks like that's not the real list.

George on 1st, Durant on 2nd, Westbrook and Kemba on 3rd team instead of Holliday and Conley.
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