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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6831 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   4601. smileyy Posted: June 25, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5855803)
Flop
   4602. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5855810)
Boston: Walker makes sense if they can keep Horford. Even if they can't, it would still be reasonable.
Russell: Hombre summed it up well not long after DAR was drafted: will have a long career in the league, does a lot of things pretty well, will never be a star. He is not an awesome shooter or an awesome jock, and he does not get to the FT line that much, so he is not going to be as good as, say, Westbrook. OTOH, looking at him as a possible Laker right now, Russell's catch/shoot and Corner 3 numbers last year were pretty good--he was .393 on catch/shoot (Walker was .356 BTW). So, as said, as a 23-year-old who can play on/off ball and has good size, and passes and shoots pretty well, Russell makes some sense as a 3rd banana on a James/Davis team.
   4603. J. Sosa Posted: June 25, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5855815)
I have wondered if Griffin is going to throw a lot of money at Brogdon or Horford. I don’t always agree with what he does but he is competent. They have zero shooting and are evidently intent on competing out of the gate in the Zion era. If that is the intent signing a super high character veteran leader that can shoot makes a lot of sense in the short term. Long term I assume the plan is to stockpile assets for KAT or someone of that ilk.

Re: Brogdon

Only issue is the foot. It is chronic. Caused a red shirt in college and the issue this season. If not for that I would say he is probably looking at a max. Valuable set of skills and maybe the most high end culture/character guy in the league.
   4604. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 25, 2019 at 04:59 PM (#5855816)
Marc Stein @TheSteinLine 8m8 minutes ago

From @ChrisBHaynes … keep an eye on J.R. Smith ultimately landing with the Lakers after the Cavaliers trade him -- which Cleveland is trying to do as we speak


On the minimum - give or take - he probably makes sense. But then again, on the minimum, he'll still be there after the main pieces land.
   4605. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 25, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5855821)
OK, so I can understand the Russell hype a little better now, but he still seems pretty flawed. I don't know if he makes sense for the Wolves, but I understand the interest, some.
   4606. smileyy Posted: June 25, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5855822)
LeBron's forgiveness knows no bounds. Either that or he's aching to break his hand again.

I mean, there's a good chance that LeBron punching that wall deprived the world of the greatest finals performance ever.
   4607. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: June 25, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5855827)
I have wondered if Griffin is going to throw a lot of money at Brogdon or Horford. I don’t always agree with what he does but he is competent. They have zero shooting and are evidently intent on competing out of the gate in the Zion era. If that is the intent signing a super high character veteran leader that can shoot makes a lot of sense in the short term. Long term I assume the plan is to stockpile assets for KAT or someone of that ilk.

i wonder if they could trade ball for covington, and then sign someone like brogdon. add a backup wing with the cap exception (david nwaba, rodney hood) and they'd be pretty well set up:

jrue/brogdon/ingram/covington/okafor
moore, NAW, hart, nwaba, zion, diallo, hayes
   4608. aberg Posted: June 25, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5855830)
I think we've heard more about DLo than Brogdon for the reasons mentioned and because he's viewed as more signable. There's a decent chance BKN will not end up wanting to retain him, whereas Milwaukee's decision just comes down to money.
   4609. aberg Posted: June 25, 2019 at 05:27 PM (#5855832)
jrue/brogdon/ingram/covington/okafor
moore, NAW, hart, nwaba, zion, diallo, hayes


Naturally.
   4610. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: June 25, 2019 at 06:04 PM (#5855841)
i posted a few interactions like this yesterday, but it just strikes me at how extraordinary the level of professionalism is when compared to the refereeing from the 3 major north american professional sports leagues (MLB/NFL/NBA).

i think people would have a lot more respect for referees if broadcasts were allowed to show stuff like this as it happens:

to the captain: "you need to keep control of your teammate because he caused it and he carried on afterwards..."
(teammate walks up to the referee)
to the teammate: "no, no. i don't need to speak to you again. please, can you move back."
   4611. Fourth True Outcome Posted: June 25, 2019 at 06:23 PM (#5855846)
I really like the system where each team has a captain who is the designated communication point for the referee, like soccer has and apparently also rugby. It really simplifies who gets to talk to the ref when tensions are running high in a way that seems better for everyone.
   4612. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 08:33 PM (#5855874)
Russell hype: He is part of a lot of ESPNarrative stuff right now. Magic dumped him then dumped on him, then he made the ASG. Then Magic quit in a very weird way, and Irving is supposedly going to Brooklyn. So Russell could conceivably be on the Lakers, or the Celtics, or Brooklyn, or he could be somewhere else. A lot of it is where he is positioned as much as who he is.

As a player, he looks good in the box scores and kind of comes off as being a little bit theatrical and cocky, which draws a little attention.
   4613. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 25, 2019 at 08:55 PM (#5855885)
I don't think it's even that complicated, honestly. The dude is 23 and he can score on three levels and he also averaged 7 assists a game last year. There are obvious holes in his game but a dude who is 23 and can score on three levels and isn't a ballstopper is always going to get paid and paid huge.
   4614. tshipman Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5855891)
a dude who is 23 and can score on three levels and isn't a ballstopper


I thought we were talking about D'angelo Russell?
   4615. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:17 PM (#5855893)
To what degree do we think that Russell's success was system success? IOW, on a team with a markedly different composition and coaching strategy than Brooklyn, would he have done so well?

I ADMIT TO SKEPTICISM.
   4616. sardonic Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:24 PM (#5855896)
Yeah Lowe pointed out in his column that DLo really struggles to even generate looks at the rim, much less complete them at a decent rate. A B+ 3-point shooter and an A- midrange game aren't exactly what Daryl Morey's dreams are made of.
   4617. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:27 PM (#5855897)
@MarkDeeksNBA
It absolutely kills me to say it, but the Manifesto is not done, and nor is going to get done. I literally gave up my job to do it and have done nothing else for three months, and for technical reasons, it just will not get over the line in time. As such, I don't know what to do.

@MarkDeeksNBA
I am crushed and extremely broke. This has been seven days a week since March and it just is not going to get done. This is an obscene waste of life and I'm pretty devastated.

@MarkDeeksNBA
This was supposed to be literally everything I could do, the world's best CV, my one shot at actually breaking through and not having to fend for myself in this field any bloody longer. Guess I got my answer about its viability.
   4618. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:28 PM (#5855898)
Are we supposed to understand that last post?
   4619. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:31 PM (#5855901)
I should probably have been clearer that I'm with most of you guys on this. You won't find me personally in line to give Russell a huge contract. Just framing it the way a lot of people seem to see it. 21 and 7, man! And he's only 23, you can dream on him!
   4620. smileyy Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:40 PM (#5855907)
Isn't [4617] by the guy who writes the 600 page or whatever analysis of the NBA?

I wonder if he was trying to parlay that into an NBA job?
   4621. sardonic Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:54 PM (#5855912)
Producing a book is a lot of work, as I recall my days working with the Hardball Times. Four editors and probably 20-30 writers in a given year contribute over the course of a couple months. I can't imagine trying to do something like that solo. It also involves tons of different skills -- being an analyst, being a writer, typesetting, editing, working with some kind of publisher. Very very few people are good at and enjoy doing that range of things.
   4622. tshipman Posted: June 25, 2019 at 09:56 PM (#5855913)
Isn't [4617] by the guy who writes the 600 page or whatever analysis of the NBA?

I wonder if he was trying to parlay that into an NBA job?


Here's my one sentence analysis of that:

That's a really ####### bad idea.

***

Yeah Lowe pointed out in his column that DLo really struggles to even generate looks at the rim, much less complete them at a decent rate. A B+ 3-point shooter and an A- midrange game aren't exactly what Daryl Morey's dreams are made of.


The big question with Russell is how real was the midrange shooting? He shot 50.4% from 10-16 feet last year and took the second highest percentage of his shots there. His FT shooting doesn't support that high of a midrange rate, but if you think for some reason that he's a true talent 50% midrange guy, then he's your dude.
   4623. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:19 PM (#5855915)
To what degree do we think that Russell's success was system success?


Lakers fans who hated Byron Scott tried to work this angle, but Russell's numbers changed very little his first year in Brooklyn. This past year he:

trimmed his TOV% and upped his AST%
shot more in line with his career numbers from 3 after a dip in 17/18
got back to .780 at the stripe where he had been in 16/17
had a good year from 10-16 ft (he has improved there each year)

His on/off numbers, which had been bad, improved to even.

So, his profile is that of a young guy making incremental improvements while staying on the floor and keeping his USG high. Also, the Lakers have not, uhh, been a great environment for young guys. Russell at age 19 joined a Lakers team coached by old-school hardass Byron Scott, featuring The Ghost of Kobe Bryant and gunners Jordan Clarkson and Lou Williams as his backcourt mates. He then got traded and dumped on in public by NBA Legend Magic Johnson. That Russell is doing a bit better as he matures and is playing in a positive environment should surprise no one, and I think it has little to do with Kenny Atkinson's system. Russell would have been better off in almost any situation in the league than he was here.

As to how good he is...he is not as good as his boxscore numbers, but he is not bad at all either, and it seems likely he will get a bit better. Will he be "overpaid?" Sure, but so will 31-year-old sabermetric hero Patrick Beverley, whose BPM was worse than Russell's last year. They were very close in WS48 and WS, and Russell was ahead in VORP. I am not bagging on Beverley; if you see on/off as the Uber-stat, then Beverley is a 20M a year player. But I look at at all the stats, plus age, skillset, and fit.

The other thing about Russell is that he can fit in with pretty much any team...except as Kyrie Irving's backcourt partner. Irving is pretty much Russell, except significantly better, so if Irving lands in Brooklyn, the Nets should cut Russell loose. So all that plus the narrative stuff is why people are talking about Russell.

   4624. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:21 PM (#5855916)
Russell from 10-16 by year:

.341
.352
.467
.504
   4625. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:35 PM (#5855919)
Yeah, 4617 is that guy.
   4626. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:41 PM (#5855921)
Since it is extremely unlikely that the Wolves end up with Russell, I am cool with him getting whatever from whomever.
   4627. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:50 PM (#5855923)
If Brooklyn gets Irving, the Lakers get Butler, and Boston gets Walker, then I could see Russell in Minnesota. It could happen anyway. He is supposedly buddyish with Towns.

Bobby Marks was on the Mason and Ireland show today, which is the LA-based mainstream ESPN NBA talk show. He predicted Russell will get 22-24 (these were predictions, not what he personally thinks guys should get). Other numbers Marks had for guys Lakers fans (and many other fanbases of teams with cap space) talk about:

Green 12m
Beverley 13/14m
Morris 13m
Ariza 5-7m
Curry 5m
Redick 10-12m
Collison 8m
Barnes 15-16m

He also said that he thinks more of these kinds of guys will get two-year deals, not three or four. Not saying I agree with any of this; just putting it out there.
   4628. JJ1986 Posted: June 25, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5855927)
I just eyeballed it, but I think the Wolves would either have to move Wiggins or two of Teague, Dieng and Covington to get the room to sign Russell. And only RoCo has positive trade value.
   4629. tshipman Posted: June 25, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5855931)
Btw, this offseason is going to be a repeat of 2016. The amount of money out there is huge, and the restraint is gone.
   4630. smileyy Posted: June 25, 2019 at 11:50 PM (#5855932)
So we can look forward to a new stretch provision in a few years?
   4631. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 26, 2019 at 07:15 AM (#5855944)
Btw, this offseason is going to be a repeat of 2016. The amount of money out there is huge, and the restraint is gone.

This gives me hope that the Wolves will be able to unload Wiggins. Not much hope, but some.
   4632. J. Sosa Posted: June 26, 2019 at 07:32 AM (#5855945)
Re: 4617

Well that’s too bad. I hope he is ok that didn’t sound healthy. At least he gave it a shot and won’t have to wonder. I don’t think it was all that crazy. People have made a career out of becoming known in the field. Podcasts, etc. or by blogging at the dawn of blogging. Or going even further back, people like Kiper and James. He gave it a shot. Making it is difficult and a lot of work for little reward for a long time at the start.
   4633. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 09:15 AM (#5855957)
Green 12m
Beverley 13/14m
Morris 13m
Ariza 5-7m
Curry 5m
Redick 10-12m
Collison 8m
Barnes 15-16m

These all seem fairly reasonable and I will therefore take the over on all of them.
   4634. J. Sosa Posted: June 26, 2019 at 09:22 AM (#5855961)
I am always bad at predicting contracts but some of those look super low.
   4635. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 09:54 AM (#5855966)
I very much enjoy Mark's work (4617) - particularly his interest in going into some arcane corners (the chunk he released, on the Hornets, includes a breakdown on their entire G-League team. I eat that stuff up). I also don't understand his plan to quit his job and dedicate so much time to this.* I think a narrower scope (much as I don't want that), maybe adding contributors, and reducing some of the redundancy in writing / using external editors would help tremendously. Depending on what he considers a worthwhile job, I think he's done enough over the years to merit employment by someone in media. (Not that that in and of itself ever gets anyone jobs.)
Also, the manifesto has been worth one's time and money and this looked to be an upgrade on past work.


* Mind you, I once approached an employer about taking a leave of absence to pursue a remarkable similar project on baseball... though I envisioned my project as a labor of love and not as a CV. They said 'no' and I was fine with that - I knew my thing (a book that would include at least a paragraph on every active player in affiliated baseball) would have few readers and the act of writing it would make me exhausted and anxious. Plus, I like having a paycheck / am not good at "dreaming/going for it".
   4636. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5855970)
Contracts: I really hope someone somewhere eventually posts a roundup of this, but the Dunc'd on pod (which I don't normally listen to + alluded to yesterday) is doing a three part ep where four dudes simulate the entire offseason (one guy is the agents, the other three run the teams). Numbers aren't always landing where I'd guess...
   4637. JJ1986 Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:03 AM (#5855973)
I enjoyed Mark's manifesto last year and he's also the Capulator guy which is one of my favorite things on the internet. It sounds like he had a data lost, which is unfortunate. I may just be extra cautious, but I'd be backing that #### up like every 30 minutes if I was doing something like that. He also may be able to recover parts of it - I know he sent stuff out for proofreading a few weeks ago.
   4638. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:10 AM (#5855980)
The other part that makes it hard for Shams/Deeks is he's in the UK. So there isn't a lot locally for him, but he's clearly very passionate and good at what he does.
   4639. PreservedFish Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:24 AM (#5855981)
(a book that would include at least a paragraph on every active player in affiliated baseball)


How would you do that?
   4640. J. Sosa Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:33 AM (#5855983)
Re: Deeks

The no parachute thing is pretty common for people who have made it in sports media. I always have had a lot of respect for people that give it a shot. Look at Givony. Dude has been around forever and didn’t really cash in until recently.
   4641. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:39 AM (#5855985)
3x3 for 2020
Virtually every FIBA press release about the game makes sure to call it “urban,” and the games feature an announcer spouting colorful nicknames. But it’s tough to seem street when Canyon Barry is shooting underhand free throws.

...From 2012 to 2018, the United States picked its World Cup squad by holding a minimally publicized 3x3 national championship played in front of almost nobody at USA Basketball headquarters in Colorado Springs, with the winning squad sent in its entirety to the World Cup. That system didn’t yield great results.

...Before the U.S.’s championship run, Serbia was completely dominant in the 3x3 world. The Serbians were led by a 6-foot-3 guard named Dusan Bulut who has never played five-on-five at a level higher than the second division in Serbia, but was a legitimate 3x3 star, with his own mixtapes and everything

...for the most part, professional basketball players have to pursue actual professional basketball opportunities, leaving the task of crisscrossing the globe in pursuit of 3x3 glory to guys using vacation time from their day jobs to moonlight as potential Olympians. (It seems telling that thus far, America’s most devoted 3x3 players have Ivy League degrees.)

   4642. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: June 26, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5855986)
How would you do that?
"this is another ####### guy who's never been in my kitchen"
   4643. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5855994)
4639 - At that time, I could've done that off the top of my head for about 70% of people. Beyond that, a lot of googling. (Would've been a lot of googling regardless, gotta fact check.)

No parachute: Yeah, I know but ... no parachute in support of a massive freely distributed .pdf is something.
   4644. sardonic Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:11 AM (#5855995)
Yeah, it takes a lot of grit to make it. It's worked out for some of the THT folks who used to hang out around here like Aaron Gleeman, Mike Fast, Colin Wyers and even Bradford Doolittle made it to ESPN eventually. I still remember emailing Aaron about a post he made looking for editors, and a combination of a prolific post history here and college newspaper editing experience got me the gig. But for every one of those there were probably 10 folks like me -- weekend warriors doing it in our spare time for love of the game. It was a ton of fun for a few years -- Der-k hope you get a chance to do something like that someday.
   4645. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5855996)
Shocked to learn that the idea that sounded like it was birthed in the twitter replies of a basketball writer is not a real thing:
The Golden State Warriors aren't seriously exploring the possibility of a delayed sign-and-trade of Kevin Durant.

There has been speculation in the media that the Warriors could sign Durant to a five-year, $221 million contract with the understanding that they trade him to his preferred destination at a later date. Durant will almost certainly miss the entire 19-20 season recovering from his Achilles injury.

For the Warriors, the path would be perilous due to the possibility of a CBA circumvention issue as well as expensive and internally awkward.
   4646. sardonic Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5855999)
Are you telling me that maybe Brian Windhorst isn't a reliable source of information?
   4647. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:37 AM (#5856005)
I dabbled as a weekend warrior many years ago, under a host of pseudonyms (some prompted by people asking me to do bits after seeing posts here), and mostly just guest pieces for other people's blogs. My general stance is that I only want to write/do something if it's a niche that I feel isn't being filled (like, if I get annoyed that no one else is putting out the content that I want to read). That said, if I weren't a single parent, I'd have a (tiny) project or two I'd likely pursue.
   4648. PreservedFish Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:47 AM (#5856011)
4639 - At that time, I could've done that off the top of my head for about 70% of people.


What? No way.
   4649. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:55 AM (#5856017)
I am a lunatic. I was ... something beyond that.
   4650. PreservedFish Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:58 AM (#5856019)
That means that if I asked you who the Brewers' hopeless 22-year old second string catcher in A+ ball was, you definitely might have known who it was and been able to discuss him in at least some detail.

Even at my height of fandom, when I was obsessed with such minutia, I couldn't have told you about 70% of the player in my favorite organization, let alone any other one.
   4651. aberg Posted: June 26, 2019 at 12:07 PM (#5856028)
No parachute: Yeah, I know but ... no parachute in support of a massive freely distributed .pdf is something.


Yeah, every year I wondered how he was able to put that together and make it free. It was amazing. I'm sad to see it go, but not terribly surprised that it created financial issues.
   4652. aberg Posted: June 26, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5856034)
I am a lunatic. I was ... something beyond that.


What were your primary ways to gather information? Reading scouting reports? Scouring youtube?
   4653. aberg Posted: June 26, 2019 at 12:10 PM (#5856035)
edit: double post
   4654. tshipman Posted: June 26, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5856043)
I read a bit of the manifesto last time it got posted.

My high level recollection was that it was interesting that he wrote so very much, but most of what he wrote wasn't interesting. If your schtick is high volume, it's tough to make that work anymore in written format.
   4655. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5856056)
Reading constantly. Spending a lot of time on college baseball websites (useful for the rookie leagues).
This was a long time ago when YouTube wasn’t as useful as it is now, video was often hard to come by. Whatever I would have offered in this thing would have been mostly surface level observations, but the thinking was that it would have all been in one place.

Tshipman, that’s true but - because of the volume, he covered a lot of players and topics that others don’t. Also, his takes are generally reasonable.
   4656. tshipman Posted: June 26, 2019 at 01:03 PM (#5856060)
Tshipman, that’s true but - because of the volume, he covered a lot of players and topics that others don’t. Also, his takes are generally reasonable.


Right, but did you read the whole thing? Did any of the people in the thread?

Obviously, we're in the market for large volumes of text content about the NBA, so if none of us read it, I sort of doubt anyone did.
   4657. aberg Posted: June 26, 2019 at 01:13 PM (#5856066)
Obviously, we're in the market for large volumes of text content about the NBA, so if none of us read it, I sort of doubt anyone did.


No one person reads an entire encyclopedia, or all of Wikipedia, but it's still useful to have a comprehensive reference available to the masses.
   4658. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5856067)
I read "all" of it, in that parts were restating what he already said and I learned to skim past/skip those.

That said, aberg is correct.
   4659. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 26, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5856079)
Thirded. I read the entire Bulls section, and most of a lot of other ones.
   4660. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: June 26, 2019 at 01:50 PM (#5856082)
Btw, this offseason is going to be a repeat of 2016.

Mostly, though not exactly. Back in 2016, centers received a disproportionate number of the most inflated and immediately-regrettable contracts, including massive 4-year deals for Mozgov, Biyombo, Miles Plumlee, injured Noah, and Mahinmi. This summer, teams will be much less willing to spend on unexceptional bigs, particularly those who don't space the floor. Guys like Robin Lopez, Enes Kanter, Ed Davis, Kenneth Faried, Taj Gibson, JaVale McGee, and even Nerlens Noel are likely to find a tepid market.

I'm predicting that any wing with at least a modicum of shooting ability gets paid more than projected. Harrison Barnes hasn't ever lived up to his hype as a prospect, but he and his agent likely know what they're doing in opting out of his contract. And the teams thinking they can get Terrence Ross, Jeremy Lamb, Reggie Bullock, or Rodney Hood cheaply will be disappointed.
   4661. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: June 26, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5856094)
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538

FWIW, we're working on a new metric for on-ball defense based on the NBA's opponents' shooting data, and Kyrie comes out quite poorly by that, suggesting he's overrated by some of the other "advanced" stats.
Nate Silver
@NateSilver538

We had Kyrie at +4.7 per 100 possessions (offense + defense) without accounting for opponents' shooting. *With* it, he falls to +3.9 per 100. Russell was at +2.1 per 100 but is 4 years younger.
   4662. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5856098)
We had Kyrie at +4.7 per 100 possessions (offense + defense) without accounting for opponents' shooting. *With* it, he falls to +3.9 per 100.

Haha, gamechanging!
   4663. tshipman Posted: June 26, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5856106)
the NBA's opponents' shooting data


I thought this was mostly garbage if we're talking about the individual defender data.
   4664. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5856125)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 21s22 seconds ago

Reporting w/ @ZachLowe: Houston’s offering Clint Capela, Eric Gordon and PJ Tucker individually to teams w/ space to absorb salary. Rockets trying for best available first-rounder for any of those three, hoping to redirect pick to Philly in pursuit of Jimmy Butler sign-and-trade.


I don't think that Rockets team will be that good, failing finding a bunch of legit starters for free. Also, it will self-implode. I kinda want to see it.
   4665. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5856126)
Is Butler from around Houston? Why would he leave Philly to take less money and go to another team with no depth and ball-dominant stars who hate each other?
   4666. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5856129)
I don't think that Rockets team will be that good, failing finding a bunch of legit starters for free. Also, it will self-implode. I kinda want to see it.

Also, PJ Tucker is getting quoted all over the place talking about how everything is fine and their chemistry is fine and all that matters is if they win and now they're actively trying to trade him. Should go over well.
   4667. tshipman Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5856130)
Is Jimmy Butler even a better fit for the Rockets than PJ Tucker?
   4668. RJ in TO Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5856132)
Is Butler from around Houston? Why would he leave Philly to take less money and go to another team with no depth and ball-dominant stars who hate each other?
The long-term comedy value.
   4669. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:30 PM (#5856133)
Butler is from Tomball, TX. Not sure where that is in relation. I don't think he'd be taking less in a S&T.
   4670. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5856134)
I don't think he'd be taking less in a S&T.

They changed the rules on this, right? A S&T just gives the player the same deal he can get in free agency, which appears to be why they don't happen nearly as much.
   4671. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5856135)
This seems like sheerest insanity, and the downside risks are tremendous, so I for one am hoping it happens.
   4672. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5856136)
Tomball is a bit north of Houston; think it's an ex-urb.

How good of a first rounder would be needed to land Capela?
   4673. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5856137)
a player can receive no bigger contract via sign-and-trade than he can get by signing with his new team directly (four years, 5% raises)

It really seems like the only benefit to the player to do this now is that it can potentially get him to a team that doesn't have the space to sign him outright.
   4674. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5856139)
How good of a first rounder would be needed to land Capela?

That's a neutral salary at best in my mind, so you're trading for the privilege of paying him properly. What's that worth? A lottery or even top 20 protected 1st?
   4675. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5856144)
I'd be reluctant to rely on an undersized old school center as well, but: he's only 25, awfully efficient, and the terms aren't bad (14.9m next season). He'll never be rangy, but the ft% has improved every season as well (63.6% last year).
   4676. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:53 PM (#5856147)
I'd be reluctant to rely on an undersized old school center as well, but: he's only 25, awfully efficient, and the terms aren't bad (14.9m next season). He'll never be rangy, but the ft% has improved every season as well (63.6% last year).

Sure, but he's almost unplayable in most matchups in crunch time of a playoff game. The Warriors are a high bar, but he was a disaster in that series.

(Also BBRef has his salary as $16.5/17.5/18.5/19.5 over the next 4 years.)
   4677. tshipman Posted: June 26, 2019 at 03:59 PM (#5856153)
Sure, but he's almost unplayable in most matchups in crunch time of a playoff game. The Warriors are a high bar, but he was a disaster in that series.


Is this still true?

The Warriors don't exist anymore, realistically. Who else is Capela unplayable against?

He can guard Gasol, Siakam or Ibaka.
He can guard Giannis or Lopez.
He can guard Anthony Davis or LeBron (at least for a possession or two).

Who can't he guard?
   4678. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 04:08 PM (#5856160)
He can guard Gasol, Siakam or Ibaka.
He can guard Giannis or Lopez.
He can guard Anthony Davis or LeBron (at least for a possession or two).

I was thinking about the other end of the floor, but I don't think I'd want him on most of these guys defensively, either?
   4679. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 26, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5856162)
This is Morey saying \"#### it, either I'm winning a title right now or I'm out of here."

Or maybe acquiring Butler is part of his ongoing effort to provoke D'Antoni to quit and walk away from the rest of his money?
   4680. jmurph Posted: June 26, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5856165)
I think I'm more curious what teams think about Gordon. I feel like his reputation has always exceeded his actual output, but 1 year and $14 million isn't exactly a huge commitment.
   4681. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5856183)
The contract difference for Capela is in incentives, now deemed unlikely. (Bb-ref is counting 1.5m worth) In a different system, his contract could increase, but likely not by the possible full 2m per year.
(It’s a 5/80-90m deal)

EDIT: specifically it’s 1m for the conference finals, 500k each for >65% ft, 30% drb rate

He has been bad in the postseason, but I still like him as a roll guy and he’s a pretty good defender.

   4682. nick swisher hygiene Posted: June 26, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5856184)
What if you're gonna bring on Butler in advance of moving CP3 on? Then--

no, that seems even more implausible.
   4683. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 05:10 PM (#5856185)
I don’t know how you move Paul, but - things happen I guess?
   4684. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: June 26, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5856197)
Keep in mind Texas (along with Florida) has no income tax, so it's a bit more lucrative for Butler than, say, the Clippers or Nets.
   4685. JJ1986 Posted: June 26, 2019 at 06:08 PM (#5856206)
I think Gordon would be a nice fit on the Sixers.
   4686. aberg Posted: June 26, 2019 at 06:12 PM (#5856210)
The BYC rules basically forbid it, but Gordon and Tucker for Harris would kind of make sense both ways.
   4687. Booey Posted: June 26, 2019 at 06:23 PM (#5856216)
#4680 - I'd happily take Gordon on the Jazz to plug into Jae Crowder's former role. If they're gonna expect someone to stretch the defense by launching 6 or 7 three's per game off the bench, it may as well be someone who can actually make them, right?
   4688. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 06:54 PM (#5856219)
There are a great many things I'm wrong about - and a smaller number where I'm wrong and know that I'm wrong yet my belief still persists (albeit is mitigated). One is that Eric Gordon isn't that great. He's not bad!, but I look at his numbers and think - doesn't rebound, doesn't create for others with passing, not a great defender, not super efficient or super high volume. (To that end, he's never had an ORTG > DRTG in his 11 years in the league, not that I put a lot of stock in the latter.) One sign that I'm wrong is that his adjusted +/-'s have been pretty good.
   4689. Tom Cervo, backup catcher Posted: June 26, 2019 at 09:04 PM (#5856240)
Not that it means he's normally a good defender, but I thought he played excellent defense on Donovan in the first round this year. Donovan also just played like #### overall of course.
   4690. puck Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:03 PM (#5856260)

3x3 for 2020


I've watched Rugby Sevens, esp. in the Olympics, but I don't really care for Rugby union matches.
I've also watched T20 cricket but not test matches.

I wonder if fans of those sports are annoyed by those forms in a way that 3x3 basketball seems kind of...maybe not annoying, but a diversion or trivial? Or maybe a different sport I'm not interested in.
   4691. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:09 PM (#5856262)
It does seem trivial, due mainly to the lack of skill relative to the 5x5 version? That said, I don’t know about you, but I’ve played tons of 3x3 so it doesn’t seem that bad. Just weird.
   4692. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:27 PM (#5856265)
Knicks did not extend QOs to Mudiay or Kornet. While EM seems like a classic second draft guy (averaged over a point every other minute) and possible future combo guard - he’s also kind of bad? - I wonder if Kornet is actually the better of the pair. Yeah he can hit threes but he’s turned out to be (in my limited viewings) a far savvier defender than I thought possible.
   4693. puck Posted: June 26, 2019 at 11:43 PM (#5856271)
It does seem trivial, due mainly to the lack of skill relative to the 5x5 version? That said, I don’t know about you, but I’ve played tons of 3x3 so it doesn’t seem that bad. Just weird.


Oh sure, when younger I played lots of 3 on 3. Or 2 on 2 or 21. It's fun and it's basketball. But I'd rather watch 5 on 5. But then 3 on 3 will surely be more competitive than the 5 on 5 tourney.
   4694. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: June 27, 2019 at 08:56 AM (#5856287)
Uh oh. from Shams: All-Star Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets have sizable gaps and stalemate in talks so far, opening pathway for competitors in Boston, New York and Dallas, league sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
   4695. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: June 27, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5856289)
Woj: The Boston Celtics have emerged as the frontrunner to sign Charlotte All-Star guard Kemba Walker once free agency opens Sunday at 6 PM ET, league sources tell ESPN.
   4696. jmurph Posted: June 27, 2019 at 09:26 AM (#5856295)
Tell me again, why doesn't free agency just start a couple days before the draft?
   4697. jmurph Posted: June 27, 2019 at 09:28 AM (#5856297)
Ha!
Report: Timberwolves offered Andrew Wiggins to Nets in sign-and-trade for D’Angelo Russell
   4698. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: June 27, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5856298)
Report: Timberwolves offered Andrew Wiggins to anyone willing to take him in trade for anything
   4699. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 27, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5856301)
Could one of you guys with some cap familiarity validate this cap math for me? If the Nets trade Joe Harris ($7.7M) and Dinwiddie ($10.6M) - both I think are 'good' contracts so will not require taking back any salary. Will they then have $62 million in cap space even with Russell's cap hold? I'm basing it off these cap numbers.
   4700. RJ in TO Posted: June 27, 2019 at 10:07 AM (#5856310)
Uh oh. from Shams: All-Star Kemba Walker and the Charlotte Hornets have sizable gaps and stalemate in talks so far, opening pathway for competitors in Boston, New York and Dallas, league sources tell @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
How can there be a gap? Isn't this one of those negotiations which should start and finish by immediately offering the max, and anything other than that is pointless?
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