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Tuesday, April 16, 2019

OT - NBA thread (Playoffs through off-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and this one only cares about the NBA thread and the Cubs so I have no idea what the rest of the website cares about.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:18 PM | 6552 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   6101. Booey Posted: July 14, 2019 at 10:27 PM (#5861874)
Flip
   6102. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 15, 2019 at 08:53 AM (#5861890)
It'd be funny if this didn't work out for the Lakers and Clippers both. That's what I'm rooting for, without rooting for injuries, which sadly is probably the most realistic way it doesn't work out for either of them.
   6103. jmurph Posted: July 15, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5861902)
When was the last time a team just refused to trade a star player who made a demand? I can't think of any examples (I'm probably spacing on an obvious one), and am wondering how that will go when it eventually happens.

   6104. jmurph Posted: July 15, 2019 at 09:49 AM (#5861903)
has anyone explained what is happening with all of these future draft picks getting traded?

it would be one thing if these picks were traded as if they had value, and i get that flags fly forever, but these picks are being thrown around like candy. aren't we supposed to know better than to do that?

The thing I find fascinating is that in the time in which players seem the most... what's a less judgy word for flighty?... teams seem the most willing to sacrifice future assets. What do the Clippers do in a year when Paul George changes his mind again? (I think that's extremely unlikely, I'm just using it as a hypothetical.)
   6105. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 15, 2019 at 10:42 AM (#5861914)
When was the last time a team just refused to trade a star player who made a demand? I can't think of any examples (I'm probably spacing on an obvious one), and am wondering how that will go when it eventually happens.


San Antonio played hardball with Kawhi for a while, but relented last summer.

I think the dynamics of basketball are such that it's very difficult to keep a malcontent star around. He can Jimmy Butler it and actively make your team worse, or he can follow the Kawhi/AD model and simply not play, and then you're wasting a huge chunk of cap space, or he can just kind of Chill Mode his way through games and that doesn't do good things for the rest of your team, either.

The thing I find fascinating is that in the time in which players seem the most... what's a less judgy word for flighty?... teams seem the most willing to sacrifice future assets.


Flags fly forever, and opportunities to acquire a genuine superstar are rare. If you can do it, you do it at almost any price and you try to win a title right now--that seems to be the way most NBA GMs think.


Who's the best player in the NBA who's been in the league at least 7 years, and is still with the team that drafted him? Eyeballing the leaderboards, it's Curry, and then Klay and Lillard--none of whom, it's interesting to note, was a top-5 pick. (Fun with endpoints, though: Giannis and Gobert have both been in the league six years, and are under contract for two more. YMMV on whether Gobert is that level of superstar, but the advanced stats sure think he is.) Westbrook just left OKC after 11 years, which deserves mentioning.

It'll be interesting over the next few years, seeing whether Giannis or Gobert or Jokic or Towns stay put. (edit: I just realized that all four of those guys, the youngish generation of stars still under contract for a couple more years, are all seven footers. Well, Giannis is 6'11". Yet Gobert is the only one that plays like a traditional 5. That's interesting.)
   6106. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 15, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5861939)
what's a less judgy word for flighty


Two things:

1. Social media and Team USA bring modern stars together as buddies in ways that did not happen 30 or 40 or 50 years ago. Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain weren't Face Timing or spending the summer of '68 together to lead the USA to Gold in Mexico City. The modern era started with The Dream Team and escalated with The Decision; Davis and Leonard just kind of ramped it up.
2. They have more freedom with modern FA structures and shorter contracts. Oscar Robertson might have bailed on the 1967 Cincinnati Royals if he had been able to do so, and Kareem, a NY native who went to college in LA, forced his way out of Milwaukee in to play in one of those cities. But Kareem, a loner by nature anyway, did that by himself.

So, I don't think they are more "flighty"--the conditions have changed.

   6107. jmurph Posted: July 15, 2019 at 12:32 PM (#5861971)
Two things:

1. Social media and Team USA bring modern stars together as buddies in ways that did not happen 30 or 40 or 50 years ago. Bill Russell and Wilt Chamberlain weren't Face Timing or spending the summer of '68 together to lead the USA to Gold in Mexico City. The modern era started with The Dream Team and escalated with The Decision. Davis and Leonard just kind of ramped it up.
2. They have more freedom with modern FA structures and shorter contracts. Oscar Robertson might have bailed on the 1967 Cincinnati Royals if he had been able to do so, and Kareem, a NY native who went to college in LA, forced his way out of Milwaukee in to play in one of those cities. But Kareem, a loner by nature anyway, did that by himself.

So, I don't think they are more "flighty"--the conditions have changed.

All totally fair and I agree. I was trying to get at this idea: Paul George, over the course of 2 years, didn't want to be in Indiana long term and wanted to be with the Lakers (by all accounts), got traded to OKC, spurned the Lakers in free agency and re-signed longterm with OKC, then forced a trade to LA to play for... the Clippers. That's just a lot of twists and turns! And the Clippers, to acquire a guy who changed his mind in pretty big ways 3 times over those 2 years, traded allllllllll of the draft picks.

And I truly meant the "less judgy" part: I have personally moved at least halfway across the country 5 times for work/life/family reasons already and will presumably do it again at some point. I just find it interesting that, in a time in which players are exercising their power and control in ways that we haven't really seen before, teams seem to be acting under the belief that, "well surely they won't want to leave us."
   6108. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 15, 2019 at 12:48 PM (#5861995)
6107--

Wasn't calling you out on that word choice. You framed it clearly.

To echo spivey, tship, Eddo and others: these dudes are all individuals. So as to George...fair points. Supposedly he was pissed off that Magic Johnson would not give up Ingram for him in addition to bunch of other stuff, and it seems that some of the 20-something guys (other than Davis ofc) are alienated from James, and want "their own team." Irving ofc wanted his own team, then kind of didn't.

In a way, it is sort of like any workplace: you have people you like and connect with, want to work with and you might meet one from another locale through social media/conferences. But if I spend two weeks at a conference and meet another professor I want to work with, we really can't blow off tenure to force our way to a college we might like better, with our colleges exchanging our contracts for three adjuncts and five grad students in the process, and even if we could, we don't have 10M Instagram followers and massive fanbases to obsess over it.

   6109. GregD Posted: July 15, 2019 at 01:37 PM (#5862014)
No offense, Stiggles, but I think the limits of The Process and of Boston’s asset piling convinced GMs that planning for the future was futile so why not risk everything to win now if you have a chance. A couple of people have noted that stars don’t care about a team’s asset sheets but also the asset sheets haven’t added up to enough anyway. If you have a chance to be a top six or seven team maybe it’s right to say forget the future? There’s a problem of course when team’s mortgage the future with no chance to be a top fifteen team but no system can avoid Dolan’s ability to screw anything up
   6110. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 15, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5862015)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 6m6 minutes ago

Philadelphia 76ers star Ben Simmons has agreed to a five-year, $170 million maximum contract extension, agent Rich Paul tells @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
   6111. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 15, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5862020)
Shams Charania @ShamsCharania 6m6 minutes ago

Philadelphia 76ers star Ben Simmons has agreed to a five-year, $170 million maximum contract extension, agent Rich Paul tells @TheAthleticNBA @Stadium.
this probably goes without saying, but i'd rather have simmons at 5/170 than tobias harris at 5/180.
no system can avoid Dolan’s ability to screw anything up
that's just not true. the other 29 "controlling shareholders" can vote dolan out any time they want.

i know that doesn't really ever happen, but man, sports leagues would be so much better off if they just get rid of deadbeats like dolan.
No offense, Stiggles, but I think the limits of The Process and of Boston’s asset piling convinced GMs that planning for the future was futile so why not risk everything to win now if you have a chance.
there are two sides to these deals. ainge/hinkie/presti/griffin/(whoever's running ATL) appear to be on one side; pelinka/king/frank/morey*/divac appear to be on the other.


*small/ish caveat: alot of people (myself included) think morey will be gone before these HOU picks wind up getting used by OKC.
A couple of people have noted that stars don’t care about a team’s asset sheets but also the asset sheets haven’t added up to enough anyway.
try to imagine where the sixers would be if hinkie hand't built up that asset sheet. think about all of the decisions, the trades, the draft picks, the GM hirings, the shitty MFs, that the sixers have gotten wrong since they committed to the process.

without the asset sheet that hinkie accumulated during the process, those missteps would have been crippling. the sixers would have been ORL or CHO...at best.

instead, the sixers have two of the best 25 and under players in the NBA, coming off two 50-win seasons, winning two playoff series, coming within a 4 bounce hail mary of overtime in game 7 against the eventual NBA champions (and probably beating TOR outright in 5 or 6 games if joel embiid hadn't shat out all his midichlorians at 6 AM the night before game 4).
   6112. GregD Posted: July 15, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5862023)
those are all fair points, and I don't contest that the Sixers plan was better than the alternatives. I do think most people--me too!--thought that at the end a star would be excited to join one of these up and coming teams, and that obviously hasn't happened. I would love it if the Sixers won the title. But it would be easier of course if they had a star in that Harris slot instead of Harris. And same with the Celtics.

This, though, I think is misreading incentives:

that's just not true. the other 29 "controlling shareholders" can vote dolan out any time they want.

i know that doesn't really ever happen, but man, sports leagues would be so much better off if they just get rid of deadbeats like dolan.
The other owners love having an idiot in the Knicks ownership. It takes away a team that otherwise would be hard to beat out for free agents and then for wins. And, miraculously, the Knicks still bring lots of money into the league while being laughingstocks. That's a win-win for other owners
   6113. spivey Posted: July 15, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5862030)
*small/ish caveat: alot of people (myself included) think morey will be gone before these HOU picks wind up getting used by OKC.


I think this is often one of the biggest factors when it comes to a team mortgaging the future (in all sports). Or the close corollary of, "Well, I can't survive without this move being a success anyways." It also sounds like maybe the Paul/Harden rumors were true, and Houston wasn't just making a move to be better, but had to get Paul off the team before the season started one way or another.

As for it not working out for Boston, I guess that's true, but they did go to a couple of ECFs, and will still be good this year with some pretty talented young wings. And that's with some pretty bad luck with respect to Hayward's injury and Kyrie turning out to be a crazy person (I feel like most of this has come to light post move).
   6114. jmurph Posted: July 15, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5862039)
Missed this over the weekend:
New Knick Marcus Morris and his agent Rich Paul have agreed to part ways, sources told the Daily News. The separation comes after a controversial free agency in which Morris, 29, signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Knicks after reneging on an agreement with the Spurs for two years, $20 million.
...
Morris, according to a source, turned down a $41 million offer from the Clippers before pivoting to the Spurs and, eventually, the Knicks.

The Clippers offer was supposedly for three years.
   6115. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 15, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5862056)
for the record, if OKC is willing until february, i would be willing to trade them tobias harris and al horford in exchange for chris paul, danilo gallinari and nerlens noel.
   6116. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: July 15, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5862058)
New Knick Marcus Morris and his agent Rich Paul have agreed to part ways, sources told the Daily News. The separation comes after a controversial free agency in which Morris, 29, signed a one-year, $15 million deal with the Knicks after reneging on an agreement with the Spurs for two years, $20 million.
San Antonio has had a real #### of summer.
   6117. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 15, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5862068)
San Antonio has had a real #### of summer.

Yep. So has Morris, really: turning down $41 million from a team that ended up converting its chance to acquire contending talent on your agent's advice only to find the best offer on the open market is half that would piss off a saint. I find breaking the agreement with the Spurs distasteful, but I think it's probably the lesser of two evils here*: I'm wary of the stance that a prospective employee owes their employer anything before a contract is signed.

* If we don't take the NBA rules as givens, it's the second least of three evils: the whole moratorium period strikes me as weird and unnecessary. Its main benefit is stirring up the rumor mill, and if that's the goal, players reneging on public-but-unofficial agreements can be considered a feature, not a bug.
   6118. Booey Posted: July 15, 2019 at 06:05 PM (#5862080)
Over/under projections according to BetOnline.ag:

(note that the Thunder are absent, since their status is currently in limbo. They could make a run for the 8th seed if they keep Paul, or finish with one of the worst records in the league if they don't)

Clippers - 55.5
Bucks - 54.5
Sixers - 53.5
Jazz - 52.5
Lakers - 51.5
Rockets - 51.5
Nuggets - 50.5
Pacers - 48.5
Celtics - 48.5
Warriors - 47.5
Raptors - 45.5
Nets - 45.5
Blazers - 45.5
Spurs - 43.5
Heat - 42.5
Mavs - 41.5
Magic - 41.5
Pelicans - 37.5
Pistons - 36.5
Kings - 35.5
Wolves - 35.5
Hawks - 32.5
Bulls - 30.5
Wiz - 28.5
Knicks - 27.5
Grizz - 27.5
Suns - 26.5
Cavs - 24.5
Horcats - 23.5
   6119. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 15, 2019 at 06:20 PM (#5862082)
The Pelicans waived F/C Christian Wood and someone should pick him up. Minimum salary who was an efficient, high usage scorer in the post (including 16.9 pts in 23.6 mpg in his 8 NWO games on 53% fg and a bunch of free throws), a good rebounder, blocks shots, and even is at 31% from three on his career (and is still only 23 for a few more months). in 28 G league games, he averaged 29.3/14.1/2.4 in 35.3 min (with 2.3 blocks) on 56/27/76 shooting. Absolutely fills up a box score. Not a good defender. Not a good passer. +/- is disappointing.
Someone should pick him up.
   6120. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5862085)
Why is the Knicks line so high?
   6121. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 15, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5862086)
[6118] I haven't bothered to figure out which specific predictions I (dis)agree with, but those seem pretty well balanced win totals: it all sums up to 1185.5, and if you replace every number with 41 (basketball being a zero-sum game and all), it sums up to 1189. Suggesting the Thunder as currently constructed are slightly above average, maybe around where the Spurs are in that ranking. Seems plausible enough to me.
   6122. JJ1986 Posted: July 15, 2019 at 06:53 PM (#5862088)
I think the moratorium only encourages what Morris did, but he also changed his mind a few days after it ended. He could have signed with the Spurs on the 6th but hadn't yet inked on the 9th.
   6123. spivey Posted: July 15, 2019 at 08:06 PM (#5862107)
Dallas feels high to me. I'm at the point where I want Porzingis to prove to me he's still a good player. In fact, I'm not sure he was ever really that good, he just had the talent to eventually become good. That roster of theirs seems like it could battle for the worst defense in the NBA. I don't know that I love the fit on offense either.
   6124. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 15, 2019 at 09:32 PM (#5862120)
I dream on Porzingis' potential as much as anyone, but that might be the most batshit insane max contract ever offered.

The man has played 186 NBA games, the last of which was well over a year ago. He turns 24 in two weeks. He's a way-over-seven-footer with several injuries that culminated with a catastrophic knee injury, since which injury he has yet to play a game. And there are some, uh, off-court questions.

We all have seen what he's capable of at his best, but... yikes. It is probably the riskiest money ever spent by an NBA team.
   6125. JC in DC Posted: July 15, 2019 at 11:02 PM (#5862144)
The injury concerns around KP are real. But I think you guys are underselling his performance. There are no question inconsistencies in his game, but he exhibited the potential to take over games offensively and in rim protecting. He's a very good (not excellent, yet) shooter, who hits 80% of his FTs, and he's excellent athleticism. If he can remain injury free (or just get hurt a little less), I think he'll be excellent. Don't forget he's also pretty damn young still.
   6126. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 15, 2019 at 11:54 PM (#5862151)
Those numbers seem very good overall to me. I might take the over on the Kings and under on the Wiz (if Beal gets traded I don't see how they win 20 games?) but that looks like good work from Vegas to me.

I'm surprised the Blazers are as low as 45.5 -- it's actually about where I'd have them but I have always been a Blazers pessimist so surprised that's where the line falls.
   6127. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 16, 2019 at 12:00 AM (#5862153)
over:
LAC
MIA
CHI
MEM
(OKC)
BRK

under:
BOS
IND
HOU
MIN
DAL
SAS
WAS
NYK
   6128. Howie Menckel Posted: July 16, 2019 at 12:05 AM (#5862156)
Over/under projections according to BetOnline.ag:

for entertainment purposes only. at least 8 or 9 U.S. states have legalized sports betting in the past year - but that illegal offshore site won't be getting any partnerships.

carry on
   6129. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: July 16, 2019 at 08:41 AM (#5862175)
Pistons - 36.5


Back to the 8 or 9 seed we go! But honestly not sure what the team should have done differently this offseason. Maybe BLOW IT UP and trade Blake Griffin but I don't think he was fetching a huge package of anything. I'd rather have gambled on younger guys than Rose/Markieff, too, but at least they are both gambles in their own way.

At least they didn't do anything that seems like it will cause long-term damage! And Sekou's #1 comp on CARMELO is Giannis!
   6130. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 10:09 AM (#5862188)
The injury concerns around KP are real. But I think you guys are underselling his performance. There are no question inconsistencies in his game, but he exhibited the potential to take over games offensively and in rim protecting.

The rim protection always seemed weird to me, in that he's otherwise soft as hell and doesn't rebound for ####. So are the blocks a sign that he's going to evolve into a more complete defensive player, or are they a sign that he likes to freestyle and chase blocks? (Or perhaps a third, less extreme thing I'm not smart enough to think of?)
   6131. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: July 16, 2019 at 10:25 AM (#5862191)
I take the blocks as a sign that he's seven foot three.
   6132. billyshears Posted: July 16, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5862203)
The rim protection always seemed weird to me, in that he's otherwise soft as hell and doesn't rebound for ####. So are the blocks a sign that he's going to evolve into a more complete defensive player, or are they a sign that he likes to freestyle and chase blocks? (Or perhaps a third, less extreme thing I'm not smart enough to think of?)


He chases blocks a bit. I wouldn't say he's soft as hell, but he can be moved off of his position by bulkier players. The Knicks also generally played him at the 4 with a traditional center, so there was always somebody else whose primary job was to rebound. He also likes to get up the floor on the break, so he tends to leak out when he senses there might be a fast break opportunity instead of crashing the boards to ensure the rebound. Put that all together and you get weirdly low rebounding numbers.
   6133. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: July 16, 2019 at 11:14 AM (#5862215)
FWIW, 538's new defensive metric, DRAYMOND, loves KP.
   6134. JC in DC Posted: July 16, 2019 at 11:22 AM (#5862219)
I thought KP was a pretty good defensive player, so that doesn't surprise me. He's movable, as billy said, but he's not really soft at all. He's a fighter. He's just big and lanky and looks soft. He contests everything. He can rebound, but - again - he's pretty easy to move; his base is just so narrow. I think he's got a chance to be an excellent pro if he can stay healthy. He has a variety of shots and a desire to be the number one.
   6135. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 16, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5862260)
7'2+ chicken leg having centers; 538's DRAYMOND (i truly hate these shitty little acronyms); last 3 years (with porzingis's 2016 instead of 2019); order by draymond desc
2017,Joel Embiid, 3.514328
2018,Joel Embiid, 3.392133
2017,Rudy Gobert, 3.386782
2019,Mitchell Robinson, 3.322126
2019,Hassan Whiteside, 2.885669
2016,Kristaps Porzingis, 2.877032
2019,Rudy Gobert, 2.818105
2017,Kristaps Porzingis, 2.453134
2019,Joel Embiid, 2.396293
2018,Kristaps Porzingis, 2.35305
2018,Rudy Gobert, 2.174937
2019,Tyson Chandler, 1.516872
2017,Hassan Whiteside, 1.344177
2018,Hassan Whiteside, 1.220021
2018,Tyson Chandler, -0.1036723
2017,Tyson Chandler, -0.322989

   6136. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 16, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5862265)
sixers starting lineup, guaranteed salary, signed through (year):

B: ben simmons, 178MM, 2025
W: josh richardson, 33MM, 2022
F: tobias harris, 180MM, 2024
B: al horford, 109MM, 2023
B: joel embiid, 122MM, 2023

bench (signed through):
W: zhaire smith (2022)
W: matisse thybulle (2023)
W: shake milton (2023)
F: mike scott (2021)
B: jonah bolden (2022)
   6137. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 01:45 PM (#5862284)
sixers starting lineup, guaranteed salary, signed through (year):

Eyeballing it, it looks like Simmons/Harris/Horford/Embiid hit $120 million combined in 20-21. Richardson is only $10.8 that year, so $130ish million total for the starting five.
   6138. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:01 PM (#5862319)
6132 is a good post. Due to work, I do not see nearly as many non-LAL games as I used to, and the metrics ofc do not tell us everything.

Porzingis: I am a fan of his game, and Dallas seems like about the best spot for him. I can see why they triggered on the deal, but 5/158 is a lot for a guy with his health and performance records. Still, it might work out great for Dallas.

Over/unders: they look pretty reasonable to me, but if I had to bet on the the team to have the best record in the league, I would definitely go with Milwaukee, not the Clippers, because of conference ecology. Looking at the West by my own personal tiers, assuming that OKC trades Paul soon:

LAC Utah
LAL Denver Houston Portland Golden State
San Antonio New Orleans Dallas Sacramento
Minnesota
Oklahoma City Memphis Phoenix

It is a deep conference. With Boston just looking more pretty good than very good now, Durant rehabbing, and Leonard moving West, the East isn't.
   6139. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5862320)
Did we ever do a summary of our preseason predictions from last year?
   6140. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5862322)
6139

NJ picked Toronto to win the title. Everybody else picked Golden State. Done and done. Ha.
   6141. JJ1986 Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5862323)
I was just looking at the Pacers roster since I mock-drafted for them and I really don't think they fit together very well. 48.5 wins seems quite high to me. With Brogdon and Lamb, they have maybe an average starting backcourt with no depth at the 2 until Oladipo comes back (which could be January). At small forward, they've got a power-forward in TJ Warren and a bad power-forward in Doug McDermott and neither of them can slide to guard. And if Bitadze isn't ready to play, they're thin up front too (they only have three centers on roster and one of them is starting at the 4). With Oladipo out, their fourth and fifth best players are Lamb and Warren and their sixth best is maybe Aaron Holiday before it really drops off. This team does not look as good as last year's model with Bogdanovic, Thad Young, Collison and Joseph.
   6142. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:21 PM (#5862334)
538 early team projections are up. Nate Silver also mentions this:
Nate Silver @NateSilver538
CARMELO projections have historically been based on a combination of RPM (Real Plus-Minus) and BPM (Box Plus-Minus). We're creating our own stat to supplement/replace RPM/BPM that takes better advantage of player tracking data.


EDIT: Golden State 2 wins better than the Clippers is... odd.
   6143. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5862338)
comparing [6118] with [6142] (positive/negative means that 538 is higher/lower than vegas):

Clippers - -7
Bucks - 0
Sixers - +5
Jazz - -3
Lakers - 0
Rockets - +6
Nuggets - 0
Pacers - -9
Celtics - -2
Warriors - +2
Raptors - 0
Nets - -7
Blazers - -4
Spurs - -6
Heat - +1
Mavs - +2
Magic - 0
Pelicans - +5
Pistons - 0
Kings - -2
Wolves - +7
Hawks - -4
Bulls - +7
Wiz - +4
Knicks - -4
Grizz - +7
Suns - +8
Cavs - -3
Horcats - +2

   6144. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5862340)
538

HOU 58-24 27% to win NBA Title
LAC 48-34 5% to win NBA title

Talk among yourselves.

   6145. spivey Posted: July 16, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5862344)
If 538 believes those numbers, they can put their money where their mouth is.

On top of many other things, I think when there is a relatively even balance of teams like this year, I think they drastically overrate the top teams chances. The Rockets and 76ers having a combined 50% is really, really high. I don't think most of these models include enough inherent randomness in them. Like Embiid getting hurt or even just sick in the playoffs. Or Westbrook pulling his groin when up 3-2 against the Clippers.

   6146. JJ1986 Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:01 PM (#5862354)
How do they predict playoff playing time? Or do they? If Kawhi is going to play 60 games during the regular season, that doesn't mean he's going to play only 75% of the postseason games.
   6147. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:02 PM (#5862355)
I think the Rockets are way, way, way too high.
   6148. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5862356)
I think the Rockets are way, way, way too high.

I think their regular season wins aren't crazy, but their title odds are. I feel the same about the Sixers, though maybe a bit less so.

The Celtics as the 3rd best team in the east feels like a stretch, though I guess it's only by a game and welllll behind the Sixers and Bucks. Also holy #### the east looks terrible (so far- I fully expect a couple more trades).
   6149. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:11 PM (#5862357)
what's moderately interesting to me is that, of the 13 teams that i picked for an over/under in [6127], 538 and vegas only "agreed" on the outlook for 3 of them (within plus or minus 3 wins).

of the 13 teams that vegas and 538 disagree about, i generally come down on the side of vegas (8/13).

also of moderate interest (likely only to myself), of the 11 teams that 538 and vegas disagree about (within plus or minus 5 wins), the only 2 teams i didn't pick out in [6127] are PHO and NOP, both of which are more highly rated by 538 than by vegas.



lastly, taking all of that into account, i think i would narrow down my own over/under bets to:
MIA: over 42.5
BOS: under 48.5
DAL: under 41.5
(these are the teams from my earlier over/under where 538 and vegas agreed on their outlook. since these have a narrow range of outcomes, and i feel strongly about their outlook, i'd hope to hit at least 2 of the 3).

CHI: over 30.5
MEM: over 27.5
IND: under 48.5
SAS: under 43.5
(these are the teams where 538 and i agree, and 538 is at least 5 wins over/under vegas. since 538 and i agree, i'd hope to hit on at least 3 of these 4.)
(btw, this is a simplified version of a machine learning algorithm. you have an ensemble model containing 3 prediction systems (538, vegas and myself) and when two of the system agree, that is the algorithm's output)


and finally, try to see if you can spot the interesting quirk about the last group of teams, where vegas and i agree, and 538 is the outlier:
HOU, BRK, MIN, LAC, WAS

lots of injuries; lots of narratives.

   6150. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:12 PM (#5862358)
Wolves 9th/Kings 15th are two other things that jumped out to me, I see the Kings as clearly the better team heading into the season.
   6151. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:14 PM (#5862359)
I don't currently feel great about any unders in the East, there looks like a lot of inseparable mediocrity to me.
   6152. jmurph Posted: July 16, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5862365)
Side note: sometimes when I see some of you guys posting outside of the NBA thread, I get this weird feeling of "oh you like baseball too?" And then I remember where we're located.

Just a reminder that ol jmurph is a bit of an idiot.
   6153. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: July 16, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5862368)
Wow, whatever was in Reggie Bullock's physical transmuted 2/21 into 2/8 with year 2 a t-opt. Must be pretty bad.
   6154. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5862372)
Aw, man:

The once-fierce lion’s eyes are tired now.

The battles — a thousand of them, and more — have been fought and won, and there is a final fight Gerald Eugene Sloan will not win. Against an opponent that never loses.

Father Time, with all its minions — in this specific case, Parkinson’s and a severe brand of dementia — pummeling humans and the human condition, the condition that is weakened, year by year, month by month, day by day, minute by minute, striking even the toughest among us.

Remain that way, it forever will.

When I recently asked someone outside the family, someone who would know the details about Sloan, asked how he was doing at age 77, even though I already had been told by others, he said three words.

“He is dying.”
   6155. Booey Posted: July 16, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5862376)
re: 6154 -

Best of luck, Coach Sloan. You'll always be on the sideline screaming profanities at the refs in my mind.

How often do coaches get statues (in any sport)? I've heard some Jazz fans debate over who should get the next statue outside Vivint (Stockton and Malone already have theirs), and Sloan is the no-brainer answer to me. In fact, he's the only answer. Jersey retirements can be for long time fan favorites or whatever, but IMO statues should be reserved for obvious HOFers who played the bulk of their career with that team; the guys who define the franchise and will forever enter people's minds whenever someone mentions that teams name. For the Jazz, that's Stockton, Malone, and Sloan, and no one else.*


* At least until Mitchell and Gobert finish playing their entire HOF careers in Utah and lead the team to multiple titles, starting with this upcoming season.
   6156. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 16, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5862377)
I don't even think statues have to be reserved for HOFers if the guy is important enough to the franchise (for instance, I think Ron Santo got his before he went into the HOF, but he went into the HOF after he died, so...the Bulls only have one statue - MJ - but a few busts throughout the arena and one is Johnny Red Kerr).
   6157. Booey Posted: July 16, 2019 at 06:11 PM (#5862380)
Top 20 players in the NBA, according to the ultimate authority...NBA 2K20!

1 - LeBron (97)
2 - Kawhi (97)
3 - Giannis (96)
4 - KD (96)
5 - Harden (96)
6 - Steph (96)
7 - AD (94)
8 - PG-13 (93)
9 - Dame (92)
10 - Embiid (91)
11 - Kyrie (91)
12 - Jokic (90)
13 - Russ (90)
14 - Klay (89)
15 - KAT (89)
16 - Butler (88)
17 - Kemba (88)
18 - Mitchell (88)
19 - Gobert (88)
20 - Griffin (88)

Gobert should rank ahead of at least the 6 players immediately in front of him, but Spida is surprisingly high, so I'm gonna call that a wash as far as Jazz love goes.
   6158. Booey Posted: July 16, 2019 at 06:20 PM (#5862383)
the Bulls only have one statue - MJ - but a few busts throughout the arena and one is Johnny Red Kerr).


I thought they had a Pippen statue inside the arena?

(probably obvious, but I've never been)
   6159. puck Posted: July 16, 2019 at 11:14 PM (#5862459)
538

HOU 58-24 27% to win NBA Title
LAC 48-34 5% to win NBA title

Talk among yourselves.


In the West they have Houston with 58 wins and next best are the Lakers and Nuggets with 51 wins.
   6160. tshipman Posted: July 17, 2019 at 02:10 AM (#5862475)
HOU 58-24 27% to win NBA Title
LAC 48-34 5% to win NBA title

Talk among yourselves.


I don't think this is unreasonable.

Clippers overperformed pythag, got great performances from Gallo and Harris and are replacing them with two guys who are going to take some time to figure it out, and will miss some time with injury. I think the Clippers are significantly more likely to win 49 games than 60.

Edit: and lowkey, Kawhi has been a bad regular season defender by on/off for a couple years now.
   6161. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 17, 2019 at 07:31 AM (#5862480)
I think the Rockets have much more dramatic fit issues than the Clippers, TBH.
   6162. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 17, 2019 at 09:01 AM (#5862489)
How often do coaches get statues (in any sport)?


In college football? A lot.
   6163. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5862499)
I thought they had a Pippen statue inside the arena?

Yeah, but I guess I was thinking of it as more of a bust, like Kerr's.
   6164. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: July 17, 2019 at 09:54 AM (#5862500)
Not sure if anyone else here listens to 538's Hot Takedown pod, but they went in-depth on their projection model and noted that it's going to look a lot different in the near future because they are going to apply tracking data to the offensive portion (similar to what they did to the defensive portion to create DRAYMOND) and they believe that's going to hurt the Rockets and help the Clippers (to name two teams with eyebrow-raising projections).
   6165. JC in DC Posted: July 17, 2019 at 01:16 PM (#5862568)
[6164] I don't. I just started listening to NBA podcasts. I kinda like Lowes. And Woj's is solid. I did not like The Ringer at all.
   6166. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 17, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5862578)
Hot Takedown: intermittently - tended to be disappointed by it? Will check that ep out.
   6167. jmurph Posted: July 17, 2019 at 03:43 PM (#5862640)
Nicely done:
Jay King @ByJayKing
Enes Kanter on choosing No. 11: “I want to be the reason that no one else wears it.”
   6168. DCA Posted: July 17, 2019 at 03:44 PM (#5862642)
I think the Rockets have much more dramatic fit issues than the Clippers, TBH.

Yes, but they had similar issues with Harden/Paul and still won 118 games over two years. I think we over-estimate the amount of time that teammates play with each other. Last season, the Rockets played 19830 minutes = 3966x5.

Harden played 72% of possible minutes (missed 4 games). Paul played 47% of possible minutes (missed 24 games, none overlapping with Harden's missed games). They were on the floor together for 1132 minutes: 61% of Paul's minutes; 39% of Harden's minutes; only 29% of team minutes.

For all the concern that the Harden/Paul pairing was suboptimal, because of overlapping roles, they ended up playing in the same game only 54/82 = 66% of the time, and were actually on the floor together for less than 1/3 of the team's minutes:

29% Paul + Harden
18% Just Paul
44% Just Harden
9% Neither

The previous season (when they won 65 games and got the 1 seed over the Warriors, Harden missed 10 games and Paul missed 24) the Harden/Paul pairing occurred only 1/4 of the time:

24% Paul + Harden
22% Just Paul
40% Just Harden
13% Neither


   6169. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2019 at 04:20 PM (#5862656)
Wow, whatever was in Reggie Bullock's physical transmuted 2/21 into 2/8 with year 2 a t-opt. Must be pretty bad.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 15m15 minutes ago

Knicks free agent Reggie Bullock underwent surgery for a cervical disc herniation today, team says.
   6170. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 17, 2019 at 05:18 PM (#5862697)
Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 58s59 seconds ago

Story filed to ESPN: Oklahoma City’s discussions to move nine-time All-Star guard Chris Paul onto a new destination are parked and an increasing expectation exists that he will start the season with the Thunder.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 30s30 seconds ago

OKC has been working with Paul and his representatives on finding a trade, but nothing is materializing so deep into summer free agency, sources said. Both sides believe there are benefits to Paul, 34, playing out the year with the Thunder.
   6171. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: July 17, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5862701)
Wood (who I ranted about up-thread) was claimed by the Pistons.

If a bad team let him start and play heavy minutes (which would not necessarily be smart!), I think he could be a 20/10, 2 blocks. Instead, they likely just got a quality backup for a non-guaranteed minimum.
   6172. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 17, 2019 at 05:24 PM (#5862703)
trade machine: who says no?

PHI: chris paul, nerlens noel
OKC: tobias harris, andre iguodala, dwight howard
MEM: danilo gallinari
   6173. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 17, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5862713)
Seems like a real waste to send Iggy to OKC if they're trading away Chris Paul and taking in Dwight Howard.
   6174. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 17, 2019 at 08:39 PM (#5862753)
this sounds...less than ideal:
Smith knew he was allergic to peanut butter. He had no idea about sesame seeds. He was exposed to the latter when he ate some chicken at the 76ers practice facility, but because he was unaware of the issue, he didn’t seek immediate medical attention. A hole formed in his esophagus and he began to vomit blood. Smith was rushed to the hospital in an ambulance, and doctors performed emergency thoracoscopy surgery, a procedure done to investigate the chest. He was hospitalized for six weeks, in pain and unable to eat or drink.

   6175. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 17, 2019 at 09:38 PM (#5862762)
Article on Year 1 of LeBron James' school in Akron. Hagiographic but pretty cool:

When King James was a fourth grader, he missed 83 days of school. He moved constantly, burdened by instability at home. Through a network of people who believed in him and who saw the potential his future held, he flourished. Speaking with ESPN's Rachel Nichols in 2018, he explained what might be considered a guiding philosophy of the I Promise School: "I think that's what kids ultimately want: They just want someone to feel like someone cares about them. And that's what we're trying to do here."


link
   6176. rr: target market for blowhard nonsense Posted: July 18, 2019 at 12:41 AM (#5862786)
Frank Vogel with some unsurprising tactical thoughts on the Lakers' roster on O:

“It’s a simple concept, put shooters around elite offensive talents and you are going to be pretty good because your guys are either going to score or they’re going to find shooters on the weak side,” he said. “That’s the way our roster has been set up and built and we got an army of guys on that weak side that can punish either with the three or making plays off the bounce.”
   6177. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: July 18, 2019 at 05:46 AM (#5862794)
Wow, whatever was in Reggie Bullock's physical transmuted 2/21 into 2/8 with year 2 a t-opt. Must be pretty bad.

Adrian Wojnarowski @wojespn 15m15 minutes ago

Knicks free agent Reggie Bullock underwent surgery for a cervical disc herniation today, team says.

I would be pretty worried too, if I found out the player I was trying to sign had a cervix. #BadAnatomy
   6178. it's hittin' 53450n. Posted: July 18, 2019 at 11:50 AM (#5862858)
i have a new favorite retired women's basketball hall of famer (sorry, cheryl):

@CBSSportsNet
"He decided to take his talents down to Miami. Lights, Camera, Action. That's what he wanted. Kind of a loser move to me."

@LisaLeslie isn't a fan of Jimmy Butler's move to South Beach. #WNTT
   6179. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 18, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5862927)
Bulls resigned Shaq Harrison, and I very much approve of that. I doubt anyone wants to acquire Kris Dunn at his current salary.
   6180. Booey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5863167)
The season just needs to start already. It's maddening that we still have 3 months to go.
   6181. spivey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5863169)
At least give the man his schedule!
   6182. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5863174)
Yeah, once there's a schedule I'll know when I'm going to Minneapolis to watch the Rosas Show.
   6183. jmurph Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5863176)
The season just needs to start already. It's maddening that we still have 3 months to go.

We're just so spoiled by Finals-Draft-Free Agency-Summer League all happening in like 3 weeks, this downtime is unbearable!

   6184. jmurph Posted: July 19, 2019 at 11:42 AM (#5863177)
Anyone have a project proposal? Top 30 again? My heart's not even in this suggestion, just throwing things out.
   6185. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: July 19, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5863185)
Have we (by which I mean you) done a list of the top 20 historical teams?
   6186. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: July 19, 2019 at 12:28 PM (#5863190)
I would be interested in a Top 30 again just because depending on what you value there are so many ways to order the top guys in the league right now.
   6187. JJ1986 Posted: July 19, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5863194)
Does anyone here watch the WNBA? I hadn't seen a game in probably 15 years, but I took my daughter to one and it's really good basketball. For some reason, I imagined that it looked more like college ball, but the teams (the Storm in particular) ran extremely NBA-style offenses.
   6188. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: July 19, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5863198)
[6187] It feels like the WNBA playoffs (similar to the Women's Final Four) is usually phenomenal every year, but I don't really watch much regular season action unless someone tells/reminds me. I was prepared to do a lot more of that this year...then Sabrina Ionescu decided to go back to college.
   6189. Booey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 12:49 PM (#5863199)
I would be interested in a Top 30 again just because depending on what you value there are so many ways to order the top guys in the league right now.


And if we're doing it for just next season, guys like Durant and Klay wouldn't even make the list.
   6190. jmurph Posted: July 19, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5863205)
And if we're doing it for just next season, guys like Durant and Klay wouldn't even make the list.

I'd have an out for the season Durant juuuuust ahead of Chandler Parsons, right behind D'Angelo Russell.
   6191. Booey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5863208)
Have we (by which I mean you) done a list of the top 20 historical teams?


1 - 1997 Jazz
2 - 1998 Jazz
3 - 1996 Jazz
4 - 1992 Jazz
5 - 2007 Jazz
6 - 1994 Jazz
7 - 2018 Jazz
8 - 2017 Jazz
9 - 1984 Jazz
10 - 1988 Jazz
11 - 2008 Jazz
12 - 1999 Jazz
13 - 1995 Jazz
14 - 1991 Jazz
15 - 2000 Jazz
16 - 2010 Jazz
17 - 1990 Jazz
18 - 2019 Jazz
19 - 2001 Jazz
20 - 1989 Jazz


(regular season record, playoff performance, expectations, franchise historical significance, and subjective/personal feelings all taken into consideration)
   6192. Booey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 01:39 PM (#5863213)
It's possible my list of the greatest historical teams may be a tad bit biased.
   6193. Rally Posted: July 19, 2019 at 01:41 PM (#5863214)
Have we (by which I mean you) done a list of the top 20 historical teams?


If I were doing something like that, I'd try to limit repeats. For example, I don't want both the 95-96 and 96-97 Bulls on the list. But I might consider the Kobe-Shaq Lakers and the Kobe-Pau Lakers as separate teams (not arguing they are both top 20, just as an example). Tough call on the 2015-16 Warriors and the 2016-17 team, since adding Durant might be enough to consider it a different team. From there just pick the best year for each distinct team.
   6194. Booey Posted: July 19, 2019 at 02:13 PM (#5863219)
If I were doing something like that, I'd try to limit repeats. For example, I don't want both the 95-96 and 96-97 Bulls on the list. But I might consider the Kobe-Shaq Lakers and the Kobe-Pau Lakers as separate teams


That's the tough part though; would you consider the Bulls first 3-peat a different team than their 2nd one? The "only" constants were MJ, Pip, and Phil. That's the same number as the Kobe-Shaq and Kobe-Pau Lakers (Kobe, Fisher, Phil), although obviously Pippen was a bigger part of those Bulls teams than Fish was for LAL.

Ditto with the Duncan/Pop Spurs. Other than those two, there were no constants between the 1999 and the 2014 Spurs (or hell, even the 2007 Spurs).


Edit: Personally, I'd say yes, the 1991-1993 and 1996-1998 Bulls are separate teams. The Kobe-Shaq and Kobe-Pau Lakers are separate teams, as are the 1999 and 2014 Spurs, and the Durant vs pre-Durant Warriors.
   6195. If on a winter's night a baserunner Posted: July 19, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5863229)
I'd try to limit repeats. For example, I don't want both the 95-96 and 96-97 Bulls on the list. But I might consider the Kobe-Shaq Lakers and the Kobe-Pau Lakers as separate teams (not arguing they are both top 20, just as an example). Tough call on the 2015-16 Warriors and the 2016-17 team, since adding Durant might be enough to consider it a different team.
With the caveat that any hard line would unavoidably be arbitrary, there has to be some adequate way to quantify this. I don't mind informal human judgement as a mechanism, but it's interesting to think about what sort of algorithm would make sense.

My first thought: any two consecutive seasons for a franchise which share any subset of players responsible for >= 60% of win shares in both seasons are considered the same team. I just pulled the 60% threshold out of nowhere, though.

My second thought: this sounds unreasonably tedious to compile by hand, and I don't know a good API I could use to pull arbitrary NBA stats from which includes win shares, or any other catchall counting stat. Maybe it would be simpler to use total points, regular season and playoffs, instead.
   6196. The Mighty Quintana Posted: July 19, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5863236)
On a related tangential note, I always wondered if the best ABA teams could have beaten the best NBA teams of the era? I know they sometimes played in preseason and the ABA held its own, but how about a 7-game series? For instance, look at this matchup:

'75 Kentucky Colonels
C Artis Gilmore
PF Dan Issel
SF Wil Jones
SG Bird Averitt
PG Louie Dampier
Coach Hubie Brown

'75 Golden St Warriors
C Clifford Ray
PF Derek Dickey
SF Jamaal Wilkes
SG Rick Barry
PG Butch Beard
Coach Al Attles

Colonels would have huge edge down low, and would certainly not get outcoached.
   6197. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: July 19, 2019 at 02:50 PM (#5863240)
Justin Holiday to Pacers for 1/$4.8mil. Solid signing. Would have been fine with him back on the Bulls for a similar type deal, but Kris Dunn ruins everything.
   6198. aberg Posted: July 19, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5863267)
Justin Holiday to Pacers for 1/$4.8mil. Solid signing. Would have been fine with him back on the Bulls for a similar type deal, but Kris Dunn ruins everything.


They also have Aaron Holiday, so they're 2/3 of the way to a family reunion. Getting Jrue might prove to be a little harder.
   6199. aberg Posted: July 19, 2019 at 03:45 PM (#5863270)
I would also be up for a top player re-ranking. I would probably phrase it as, "if every player in the league went into a giant re-draft, what would be your draft order, not considering contracts?"

I'd go for a top teams thing, too, but it might be hard to go back to the 50s and 60s. Easier to find video/stats on a single player than get a feel for the whole team.
   6200. NJ in NY (Now with Big Girl!) Posted: July 19, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5863277)
I would probably phrase it as, "if every player in the league went into a giant re-draft, what would be your draft order, not considering contracts?"

I'm a fan.
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