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Thursday, September 26, 2019

OT - NBA thread (pre-season)

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about baseball, and this thread is the only thing keeping this site alive.

Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: September 26, 2019 at 09:56 AM | 762 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, nba, off-topic

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   601. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5892557)
As I recall, the Hield pick was routinely pilloried here
(and elsewhere) because he was so old, as was Sacto trading for him. Wonder what the lesson is there.

We're never wrong, but sometimes reality itself unfolds in an incorrect way?
   602. The Good Face Posted: October 21, 2019 at 02:31 PM (#5892586)
I'm low on the Lakers, because I just think that behind the two titans up front, that roster is paper-thin, and, you know, LeBron's gotta take a step back eventually, so why not this year?


I dunno. The team is definitely lacking a 3rd banana unless Kuzma can make a leap, but there are some decent role players on that roster who should be fine as long as the two titans do their part. Danny Green, KCP, JaVale McGee, Rondo, Avery Bradley, etc. But yeah, if either of their superstars miss significant time to injury or LeBron gets old, that team looks pretty mediocre.

As I recall, the Hield pick was routinely pilloried here
(and elsewhere) because he was so old, as was Sacto trading for him. Wonder what the lesson is there.


Elite 3 point shooting is really valuable? The trick is figuring out which college guys are actually going to be elite 3 point shooters in the NBA.
   603. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 03:18 PM (#5892593)
I'm picking the Sixers to win a lot of games and go far, like everyone else, but I'm still really skeptical of the offense. So I'm hedging by giving Horford 6th man, which is admittedly dumb but at some point I think they're going to realize they need to start an actual guard.

there are going to be at least a dozen games this year where the sixers get asshammered by a barrage of 3s, but aside from those games, the sixers offensive success will likely depend on a combination of offensive rebounding, fast break/transition scoring and motion/weave/triangle concepts leading to uncontested layups.

simmons had 8 APG last year
richardson had 4
horford had 4
embiid had 4
tharris had 3.

even KOQ and trey burke averaged 5+ assists per 36 minutes last year.
   604. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 03:23 PM (#5892596)
o'quinn had a zillion assists in the preseason games i saw him in (he had 21 in only 59 minutes)
   605. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:03 PM (#5892603)
jaylen b signed an extension for 4/115.
pistons cut joe johnson
   606. aberg Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:05 PM (#5892604)
East
1. MIL 58
2. PHI 55
3. BOS 48
4. TOR 46
5. MIA 45
6. ORL 44
7. IND 43
8. CHI 39
9. BKN 38
10. DET 37
11. ATL 30
12. WAS 27
13. CLE 24
14. CHA 22
15. NYK 21

West
1. LAC 55
2. UTA 54
3. HOU 54
4. DEN 52
5. LAL 52
6. GSW 48
7. DAL 45
8. SAS 44
9. POR 43
10. NO 38
11. SAC 37
12. MIN 37
13. OKC 36
14. MEM 30
15. PHX 28

MIL def CHI
PHI def IND
BOS def ORL
MIA def TOR

MIL def MIA
PHI def BOS

PHI def MIL

LAC def SAS
UTA def DAL
GSW def HOU
LAL def DEN

LAC def LAL
GSW def UTA

LAC def GSW

LAC def PHI

MVP- Giannis
ROY- Zion
COY- Rivers
   607. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5892606)
Sabonis extension 4/$79.5mil (per Shams, Woj has 4/$77). EDIT: Shams corrects himself to 4/$74.9

I think I much prefer Siakam's deal to Brown's.
   608. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5892607)
In new height news, Donovan Mitchell is only 6'1.
   609. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5892616)
I think I much prefer Siakam's deal to Brown's.

In a vacuum I agree, but I also think if the Celtics hadn't gotten Brown signed to an extension there is a very good chance they would have gotten the privilege of matching a max deal for Brown in RFA, given the thin FA class and the signs from preseason that Brown is continuuing to improve his game. I'd take Siakam over Brown, but there's a decent chance Brown closes some of that gap this year, and either way I think the real thing they were comparing against wasn't his peers as much as what he would get in the RFA process.

On the Pacers side, with Sabonis signing an extension too, do we think the Pacers are going to shop both Turner and Sabonis for good deals, or is this unlikely to change anything there?
   610. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:40 PM (#5892619)
What 4TO said, thin free agent class and all, but... that still seems like a lot of money for a player that I at least am still not sure is actually good. Definitely vastly prefer the Sabonis and Siakam deals (who were in the same position as pending RFA's into a very weak free agent class).
   611. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:42 PM (#5892620)
And Dejounte for 4/64 in that bucket. Wow -- obviously coming off an injury has a lot to do with that, but that's a very nice price for the Spurs.
   612. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5892623)
theory is that players are worried about the cap being lower than previously expected next year, due to china stuff
   613. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5892625)
####, Zion out 6-8 weeks after meniscus surgery.
   614. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5892626)
edit: coke to jmurph
   615. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:49 PM (#5892629)
That's 20-30 games, per Marc Stein's tweet.
   616. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5892631)
I think without actually trying to make this happen for draft purposes that Charlotte won't just be bad but approach being historically bad. Like 12 wins or fewer bad. I know 538 had the Knicks with 21 rotation wins and Charlotte with I think 25, but I think that's just way off. Guys like Randall and Barrett who even as a rookie comes across as more competent than much of what Charlotte has on the roster. Sorry for the Hornets hate but I legit do not understand how a pro team management group could be so bad on such a scale. Just horrible.

   617. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5892633)
espn put out a team rankings today that had charlotte last. they could be REALLY REALLY bad.
   618. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:00 PM (#5892634)
617--I don't read espn but consider espn to be really bad at forecasting so now I am totally second guessing my previous post..................
   619. jmurph Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5892637)
More details on Brown extension:
Jay King @ByJayKing
Jaylen Brown’s four-year contract extension has $103 million in guaranteed money, per source. Another $4 million in likely incentives, plus $8 million in unlikely incentives.
   620. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5892638)
I have Charlotte dead last in my sort of unofficial standings. They certainly are the least interesting team to watch in the league.
   621. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:06 PM (#5892640)
620--Does Charlotte have a single guy on the roster who could start for not even a 50 plus win team but a .500 team? Who on Charlotte would replace a guy on Orlando's starting five?
   622. JJ1986 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5892641)
I think Marvin Williams could be a sixth man for a .500 team.
   623. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:08 PM (#5892642)
Of course I should be careful because if you took Giannis off the Bucks that roster looks not so great. Flip side is that I think the Pacers are going to be disappointed in the Brogdon not playing with Giannis. Plus the dude turns 27 in December. That just blows me away when you think about the age most guys get to the pros
   624. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:19 PM (#5892645)
mckinnie to cle on waivers
daquan jeffries to sac on same
   625. spivey Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5892646)
I got tickets for the Pels on Dec 11. That was the game I was looking forward to most of our 10 game pack. Still excited to see their other guys, but hopefully he recovers quickly and safely. That could really affect their playoff chances.
   626. aberg Posted: October 21, 2019 at 05:57 PM (#5892648)
620--Does Charlotte have a single guy on the roster who could start for not even a 50 plus win team but a .500 team? Who on Charlotte would replace a guy on Orlando's starting five?


Maybe not a fair way to do it, but I think Batum could start at the 3 for this year's Warriors while Klay is out.
   627. aberg Posted: October 21, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5892650)
Speaking of Batum, I think I'd like Jayson Tatum a lot more if I pronounced his name so as to rhyme with Batum. I shall make it so.
   628. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 21, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5892651)
What Charlotte clearly needs is an 20+ PPG wing, an electrifying athlete, Rookie of the Year, with cost certainty on his deal, preferably an Iron Man type who never misses games.
   629. aberg Posted: October 21, 2019 at 06:43 PM (#5892656)
I'm no supporter of China, but there is some roundabout irony in the fact that players are taking discounted contracts right before the extension deadline because front office personnel offended a large revenue generator and the league didn't placate that market. I guess the lesson is that an ebbing tide sinks all boats.
   630. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 07:33 PM (#5892661)
What Charlotte clearly needs is an 20+ PPG wing, an electrifying athlete, Rookie of the Year, with cost certainty on his deal, preferably an Iron Man type who never misses games.
i don't think tobias harris was rookie of the year.
   631. tshipman Posted: October 21, 2019 at 09:18 PM (#5892676)
25-28 million a year for Jaylen Brown is ... aggressive.

In a vacuum I agree, but I also think if the Celtics hadn't gotten Brown signed to an extension there is a very good chance they would have gotten the privilege of matching a max deal for Brown in RFA, given the thin FA class and the signs from preseason that Brown is continuuing to improve his game.


Brown has never even been average on offense. If he improved significantly ... he still wouldn't be worth 28mm.
   632. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 21, 2019 at 09:18 PM (#5892677)
i don't think tobias harris was rookie of the year.

Must've meant Simmons, though he hasn't quite managed 20 ppg just yet.
   633. Booey Posted: October 21, 2019 at 09:22 PM (#5892678)
#628 - Heh. Someday, somehow, SOMEONE will take Wiggins off your hands, right? ;-)
   634. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 21, 2019 at 10:55 PM (#5892690)
I think the assertions that Brown isn't worth $28M a year and that if he hit free agency ten teams would line up to max him are probably both accurate.

I like Brown a hell of a lot more than I ever liked Andrew Wiggins, but I think there's a bit of the same trap there: ascribing more room for improvement than it's reasonable to expect. Yeah he's only 23, but he's also a three year NBA veteran, and he went backward a bit in Year Three. His 2017-2018 level of performance is probably as good as he's ever going to be. That's a valuable guy to have at even, say, $20M/year. $28M/year, ehhhhh, not so much.

But, though he is problematic on offense if he isn't hitting 38%+ from three (he does not even consider passing if he has any say in the matter; his assist rate is even lower than Wiggins', one of the very lowest in the NBA), he certainly is the TYPE of player every NBA team covets: long, athletic, switchable, usually plays his ass off on defense, and can hit the open three. So overall, I'd hate to give that much of my cap space to him if I'm in Boston's position, but unlike Wiggins, barring severe injury his contract will probably be tradeable for value for its duration.

He'll always be frustrating on offense, though. He occasionally makes highlight reel plays, but on balance, you really don't want him putting the ball on the floor in the halfcourt.
   635. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 11:21 PM (#5892691)
he does not even consider passing if he has any say in the matter
you don't pass your way out of berkeley.
   636. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 21, 2019 at 11:22 PM (#5892692)
you don't pass your way out of berkeley.
don't fact check that.
   637. smileyy Posted: October 21, 2019 at 11:51 PM (#5892697)
I'm sure someone has already coined "LeBrow" for LeBron/AD, but I felt pretty clever when I thought of that today.
   638. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 12:07 AM (#5892699)
don't fact check that.
seriously: don't fact check it.
   639. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 12:15 AM (#5892702)
seriously: don't fact check it.
quick side note:

why didn't someone at cal tell aaron rodgers he throws with his right arm?
   640. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 22, 2019 at 09:12 AM (#5892718)
#628 - Heh. Someday, somehow, SOMEONE will take Wiggins off your hands, right? ;-)

A man can dream, right? And Wiggins for Batum sort of works, salary-wise, and nobody ever went broke overestimating Michael Jordan's aptitude as an owner.
   641. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 22, 2019 at 09:23 AM (#5892721)
NBA heights.
I'm not sure that all of these are actually barefoot?
   642. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 09:50 AM (#5892728)
Toronto deserves to have their night, but with the Zion injury this opening game is maybe not the most exciting draw for the non-obsessives.
   643. puck Posted: October 22, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5892744)
That's weird, McCann played two years there in the twilight of his career. I take it he taught the franchise how to win?
   644. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 11:01 AM (#5892772)
Interesting article from Seth Partnow at The Athletic. He touches on a lot of things, including how early in the season you can start to assess teams. He makes the case that ORtg and DRtg start to stabilize around the 15-20 game mark (meaning that most teams will finish within 5 spots of where they are at that point). For Offensive Four Factors, it's more like 20-25 games.
   645. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 22, 2019 at 11:15 AM (#5892784)
[643] Brian McCann for Andrew Wiggins, who says no?
   646. aberg Posted: October 22, 2019 at 11:51 AM (#5892816)
Toronto deserves to have their night, but with the Zion injury this opening game is maybe not the most exciting draw for the non-obsessives.


Not only that, it's directly up against WS Game 1. Very tough timing.
   647. The Good Face Posted: October 22, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5892821)
####, Zion out 6-8 weeks after meniscus surgery.


19 years old and already having his first meniscectomy? Welp.

At this point I'm just hoping he's healthy enough to play a season or two at his physical prime. It's like Larry Johnson all over again, but on an accelerated timeframe.
   648. spivey Posted: October 22, 2019 at 12:45 PM (#5892867)
19 years old and already having his first meniscectomy? Welp.

At this point I'm just hoping he's healthy enough to play a season or two at his physical prime. It's like Larry Johnson all over again, but on an accelerated timeframe.


I'm not saying you're wrong, but after reading all of the wild ass speculation about how Embiid will never play a game in the NBA, let's not write him off just yet.
   649. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 22, 2019 at 12:58 PM (#5892875)
I hope Zion stays healthy because I want everyone to stay healthy, plus he's hella fun. Does remind me a lot of upscale LJ, tho.
   650. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: October 22, 2019 at 01:22 PM (#5892889)
Predictions: I am not very good at making them, and TBH I don't take them all that seriously, in terms of guys being right or wrong reflecting much. I see them as a fun/ego thing. With that preface, I am a little higher on Milwaukee and a little lower on Philadelphia than some people here seem to be. I see Milwaukee/Clippers as the most likely Finals matchup, but obviously PHI/LAC-LAL-UTA-HOU-DEN would surprise almost no one.

Jaylen Brown's contract: I have been in some mildly testy exchanges over the last year or so with some other Lakers fans over the last year or two about the Lakers' young guys (all gone now except for Kuzma) vs. a LeBron James team like they have now, consisting of James, another big star, and a bunch of veteran role players. When we were talking here about Kyrie Irving's pending FA, jmurph pointed out that there is a upper tier of guys, like Antetokounmpo and Harden, who are worth more than the max, and suggested guys like Irving are probably worth the actual max. If you look at the guys the Lakers drafted mostly under Jim Buss and then got rid of to make way for James/Davis/role players, they are now making a lot of money:

RUSSELL 29.5
RANDLE 21
CLARKSON ~12
NANCE ~10
ZUBAC 7
T. BRYANT ~8

That is about 88M for those guys. Ingram is off his rookie deal next year, and he will likely get something like 4/64 even if he doesn't improve much, and it may be like that for Lonzo Ball as well.

So, one of the consequences of capping max deals is that an upper-middle/middle class is created, and guys like Jaylen Brown can end up with massive contracts. That is obviously good for NBPA, and while I have always thought both the Boston young guys/role players and the now-departed Lakers' young guys have drawn excessive attention/praise/snark due to being Lakers and Celtics, I can see why Boston did it. Irving and Horford are gone, they want a competitive team that the fans can identify with, and maybe Brown can get better, although my view of Brown is that he is fine, but he is pretty much just a guy (like the guys on the list above for the most part).

Lakers roster: Even though it is very easy to see several ways what the Lakers are doing could blow up on them, I am pretty comfortable with it, given the alternatives, even though I do not like some of individual smaller moves. This current roster reminds me a bit the 2000-2003 teams--Shaq, Kobe, and veteran role players. But ofc the issue is that James is in his age-35 season with unprecedented mileage. If James were 30, I would probably pick the Lakers to win the title. As it is, I can't, but I am still looking forward to seeing this team play, starting tonight.
   651. The Good Face Posted: October 22, 2019 at 01:29 PM (#5892892)
I'm not saying you're wrong, but after reading all of the wild ass speculation about how Embiid will never play a game in the NBA, let's not write him off just yet.


I'm not writing him off, but meniscus damage is cumulative and non-regenerative and the fact he's already getting surgery for it at 19, combined with his heightened risk factors make me worry that he'll have a short career. Or at least a short period in his career where he's the superhuman athletic freak that gets people so excited. Larry Johnson played for a decade, but he was only Grandmama for 2-3 years before his back injury sapped his athleticism.
   652. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5892905)
Fred Katz @FredKatz Wizards starters for tomorrow’s opener against Dallas: Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Beal, Ish Smith

Ummmmmmm, I have some regrets about picking 3 teams to finish below the Wiz in the East.
   653. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5892909)
Albert Nahmad @AlbertNahmad
The luxury tax has been triggered in 16 NBA seasons (from 2002-03 to 2003-04, and from 2005-06 to present). Here’s the list of teams that won the NBA title in those seasons without paying it:
- Heat (2005-06)
- Spurs (2013-14)
- Warriors (2014-15)
- Warriors (2016-17)

Albert Nahmad @AlbertNahmad
For full disclosure: Three teams paid really small amounts of luxury tax in winning the NBA title:
- Spurs (2002-03): $187K
- Pistons (2003-04): $757K
- Spurs (2006-07): $196K
   654. notdavo Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5892919)
Wanted to thank you all for your posts on this thread over the years. I’ll never be more than a casual fan, but I’ve learned a lot from you. Making a new home in the Nuggets sub-reddit, but the basketball threads have been the lone bright spot on this site since Jim stopped running it and 80% of the users left.

Anyway. Um. Nuggets-76ers in the Finals, Nuggets sweep, capping off an unprecedented 98-0 season.
   655. JJ1986 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:17 PM (#5892922)
Ummmmmmm, I have some regrets about picking 3 teams to finish below the Wiz in the East.
With those starters and having 5 injured players, I calculate their bench to be Justin Robinson (who?), Jordan McCrae, Admiral Schofield, Davis Bertans (who should be their second best player) and Moe Wagner. They're going to be playing like 4 guys who are above replacement level and I'm not sure how good Bryant is.
   656. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5892927)
I'm going to allow myself exactly one Celtics-related preseason hot take: they're somehow going to finish in the top 8-10 in DRtg despite that so-called center rotation.
   657. Rally Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:34 PM (#5892931)
So, one of the consequences of capping max deals is that an upper-middle/middle class is created, and guys like Jaylen Brown can end up with massive contracts. That is obviously good for NBPA, and while I have always thought both the Boston young guys/role players and the now-departed Lakers' young guys have drawn excessive attention/praise/snark due to being Lakers and Celtics, I can see why Boston did it. Irving and Horford are gone, they want a competitive team that the fans can identify with, and maybe Brown can get better, although my view of Brown is that he is fine, but he is pretty much just a guy (like the guys on the list above for the most part).


Interesting in comparison to baseball. Officially no salary cap or max, but teams (mostly) are treating the luxury tax line like a max. And they have been extremely reluctant to push the top AAV contract. Even Mike Trout didn't go much over what his highest paid peers make, even if a $/WAR calculation says he should be making 65 million or something. Baseball is even behind basketball in top level AAV despite not having a salary max.

Since they aren't limited to 4 or 5 year deals like the NBA, the big contracts in baseball push things further out, the top guys signing 10, 12, or even 13 year deals.
   658. Fourth True Outcome Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:40 PM (#5892934)
I'm going to allow myself exactly one Celtics-related preseason hot take: they're somehow going to finish in the top 8-10 in DRtg despite that so-called center rotation.

I'm admittedly an avowed worshiper at the church of Brad Stevens' Defensive Mumbo-Jumbo, which you can identify by their 3P% allowed being oddly low, but I like their odds of having a defense analogous to the one they did in 2015-16, when their bigs were Olynyk, Sullinger, and Amir Johnson and they were #4 in D Rtg. (That team also had IT, so presumably Kemba shouldn't be a dealbreaker either, but again, see the caveat I'm starting from.)
   659. jmurph Posted: October 22, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5892938)
Just heard on the SI Open Floor podcast (not great, for the record, but giving it a try) that 11 of the first 20 Pelicans games are scheduled for national TV. Oops!
   660. Dandy Little Glove Man Posted: October 22, 2019 at 03:06 PM (#5892941)
Wizards starters for tomorrow’s opener against Dallas: Thomas Bryant, Rui, Bonga, Beal, Ish Smith

My prediction for this season: the scoring race is going to be awesome. I'm envisioning something like 2006, when Kobe and Allen Iverson put up 2 of the top 10 scoring seasons post-Wilt, with LeBron not far behind. How can the Wizards score if they're not running almost everything for Beal? Steph and Harden each have a #2 but otherwise their supporting casts are extremely low usage.

Zach LaVine might score 30 a game too. He averaged 27 last year post-ASB, and if preseason's any indication the Bulls will be playing faster now.
   661. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 22, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5892944)
My prediction for this season: the scoring race is going to be awesome.

While I don't think he'll be in the mix for scoring titles, Towns should be a beast this season. They've finally figured out that when you have a generational talent, it behooves you to run basically everything through that talent.
   662. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 22, 2019 at 03:11 PM (#5892945)
Earvin Magic Johnson @MagicJohnson

Everyone relax. We know Steph Curry is a future Hall of Famer...Michael Jordan couldn’t say it because he would get fined by the league.


Ha, he's probably right, but MJ probably also is just being his normal hater self.
   663. KronicFatigue Posted: October 22, 2019 at 05:56 PM (#5893025)
TNT has a 2.5 hour pregame. I only know this b/c I was too lazy to change the channel after champions league soccer.

Ernie Johnson: What can you expect in this 2.5 hour telecast?

(I think it was barkley, but could have been smith mumbling): A lot of commercials
   664. If on a winter's night a traveling violation Posted: October 22, 2019 at 07:31 PM (#5893057)
A few quick thoughts on Jaylen Brown's contract, since I have a lot of them and the start of the season is about to (quite justifiably) move the conversation along. It's a little rambling, since I'm very sleep deprived, but the TL;DR is that, while it's definitely a bit of an overpay based on what we've seen to date, I like it and the specific team context does a lot to blunt the downsides.

Starting at the end: the Celtics were going to be capped out regardless by paying any two of Walker, Tatum, and Brown, so the opportunity cost of paying all three really just comes down to the degree to which the luxury tax cramps their ability to make moves in the next few years. Bonus speculation: there are some indirect signs that Brown is emerging as a bit of a leader (beyond the way other players and coaches keep talking about his maturity and professionalism, he pushed back on Kyrie's passive aggressive digs at "the young guys" more publicly than anyone else), and keeping him in the fold may play well in the locker room.

As for the contract itself, a not-quite-max contract is a pretty well established baseline rate for a supporting star (anything lower than that is a team-friendly bargain, which is hard to get without badly-timed growth on the player's part). That's pretty clearly how the Celtics see Brown, and they need him to be that to have any real hope of contention with this team. The number sounds huge, but his base salary + "likely" incentives (the "unlikely" incentive money kicks in another $8m if he wins MVP, DPOY, or an All-NBA spot, in which scenarios he'll easily exceed the value of the bigger deal anyway) is 23.9m next year, or about 24% of the projected cap (116m). 24% of the cap is Klay Thompson money (his rookie extension, not his new deal)—I'd rather have young Klay, of course, but Klay's a tough comparison, being only a little bit of passing skill removed from being the actual platonic ideal of a supporting star. If Brown improves—hardly a guarantee, though player growth isn't linear and he's still just 22—he can live up to the contract easily.

Of course, there are things that concern me about Brown, too. I'd love for his recent flashes of passing this World Cup and preseason to be a sign of real growth and/or Popovichian black magic, but he's amassed a much bigger sample of playing like a black hole. His lousy free throw percentage makes me wory about the durability of his touch from deep (Ainge recently made some comment about his percentage being much higher on second free throws than first ones; a significant long-term gap would do a lot to help me believe it's a correctable matter of approach instead of a deficit of touch, but I won't believe it until I see it and I don't know anywhere to look that up). His of-ball defense is much worse than on-ball.

In the end, though, for me it just boils down to four things: 1) Brown is good and still improving, 2) the Celtics will be too capped out to sign anyone who could move the needle regardless, 3) as [609] points out, the Celtics were bidding against any team talking themselves into a max offer sheet as an upside bet in an extraordinarily weak FA class. Most importantly, though: 4) it's Wyc Grousbeck's money, not mine.
   665. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 22, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5893084)
Barneys looking a little nervous. I am so so so bummed about Zion.
   666. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 22, 2019 at 08:28 PM (#5893088)
And oh god a coaches challenge. I wish I could hate this to death.
   667. JJ1986 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 08:44 PM (#5893102)
Nicolo Melli looks like someone who went to kill a vampire, but instead got turned into one.
   668. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: October 22, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5893108)
Nicolò Melli is eligible for the US national team because his mother is from Palmyra, Nebraska!
   669. JJ1986 Posted: October 22, 2019 at 10:28 PM (#5893187)
Are the Pelicans tanking? Why is Jah closing this game?
   670. smileyy Posted: October 22, 2019 at 11:31 PM (#5893213)
The Lakers are going to make a lot of benches look really good.
   671. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 23, 2019 at 12:31 AM (#5893244)
Danny Green 5-5 from the arc in the third, shooting the Lakers back into the game.

EDIT: 6-6. Lakers with 15 straight.
   672. billyshears Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:23 AM (#5893251)
Starting at the end: the Celtics were going to be capped out regardless by paying any two of Walker, Tatum, and Brown, so the opportunity cost of paying all three really just comes down to the degree to which the luxury tax cramps their ability to make moves in the next few years.


This is basically the same logic I used to justify every Knicks transaction between 1999 - 2007. I’m not even sure it’s wrong, but I can tell you that after a certain point, that way lies madness.
   673. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 23, 2019 at 03:35 AM (#5893261)
Well, rats.
   674. Crosseyed and Painless Posted: October 23, 2019 at 08:50 AM (#5893284)
I was ready to go all-in on the Lakers after one preseason game and now I'm ready to go all-out on them after one regular season game.
   675. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: October 23, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5893300)
James and Davis were 15/40 from the floor, 1/7 from the arc, and scored two points between them in the 4th, and the Clippers' bench, which is good, had a huge night. That's all we need to know.

Green had a big night, which gave them a shot, but obviously the rest of the roster is too thin for them to sustain Davis and James shooting like that, especially with Kuzma out. Like I said in preseason, James is really the key guy for the Lakers, in that he is not a given like he was in his prime. The bench guys are who they are, and Davis is Davis. Davis will probably miss about 10-15 games and be mostly awesome. If James plays 70 or so games and is a Top 5 or Top 10 guy, then the Lakers are dangerous. If he is too old to do that, then they are vulnerable.
   676. JC in DC Posted: October 23, 2019 at 10:55 AM (#5893346)
If James plays 70 or so games and is a Top 5 or Top 10 guy, then the Lakers are dangerous. If he is too old to do that, then they are vulnerable.


Then I think they're vulnerable. Leaving aside the 70 or so games, which I expect him NOT to play and believe it would be imprudent for him to play (they should aim for 60-65, assuming relative health), I don't think he's a top 5 guy anymore. Top 10, maybe. And that may be enough if things gel. But I suspect come the deadline, they're going to look to add a top guy to this roster. So, how vulnerable are they if he's a top 10 guy who can play no more than 65 games?
   677. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 23, 2019 at 11:56 AM (#5893383)
Does anyone here know of a free source for boxscore data? I'd like to go find the highest "trillion" (minutes and nothing else that shows up in the boxscore).
   678. RJ in TO Posted: October 23, 2019 at 12:09 PM (#5893393)
But I suspect come the deadline, they're going to look to add a top guy to this roster.


With what they already traded to get Davis, do they have enough left on the roster to be a serious contender for another top guy at the deadline?
   679. Jeremy Renner App is Dead and I killed it Posted: October 23, 2019 at 12:15 PM (#5893399)
Really enjoyed Shaq of all people getting the China thing dead on. None of this 'oh it's so complicated' bullshit. Just that DM can say what he wants because this is what the US is about. Barkley kind of surprising in that he just mumbled about something that I did not catch only half watching.

If anyone didn't catch it: "Whenever you see something wrong going on anywhere in the world, you should have the right to say that's not right, and that's what he did," O'Neal said. "When it comes to business sometimes, you have to tiptoe around things, but again, they understand our values and we understand our values and here, we have the right to speak. Especially with social media -- we're going to say whatever we want to say, when we want to say it."

comment: this makes James look completely ridiculous in his comments which is good. James, Bill Simmons, so many of these NBA thought leaders embarrassed themselves
   680. Laser Man Posted: October 23, 2019 at 12:31 PM (#5893408)
[677] On 2/21/16, Tony Snell played 8:40 and did not record a single stat. I think that might be the record.
Box Score 2/21/16

Joel Anthony once played 28:46 without recording a point, rebound, assist, steal or block, but he did commit 4 fouls and had a turnover. Snell also had a game where he went 28:25 with no positive stats, but did miss 2 shots and commit a foul.
   681. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:00 PM (#5893426)
[677] On 2/21/16, Tony Snell played 8:40 and did not record a single stat. I think that might be the record.

I dimly remember some oafish mid-90s big man achieving an 11 trillion, but that might just be me wishcasting.
   682. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5893430)
676: The Lakers could easily end up as a 5-7 seed, something like 47-35, but then beat a couple of higher-seeded teams in postseason (some predictions went that way). So they are sort of both vulnerable and dangerous. But ultimately, James needs to be both great and healthy for it to work. Assuming they get in, does he have a "playoff mode" run in him?

As far as making a move, that would not be easy. They did the right thing in waiting for Leonard, but there was a downside.


   683. Moses Taylor, aka Hambone Fakenameington Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5893449)
This is ultimately harmless - as is this entire puff piece - but I do think it's more of Boylen just trying too damn hard to come across as a regular old blue collar guy (and frankly, I'd be surprised if he's really the first guy to do something like this):

And three days before the start of this year’s training camp, Boylen brought in another memory of his factory days. He ordered a time clock. He had it painted from green to red and inscribed with “Chicago Bulls” in white letters on the front. On the sides are Bulls logos. It sits on a north wall inside the Advocate Center, just off the training room, steps away from the weight room. To the right, resting in two small adjacent grey placeholders, are the players’ time cards. Each one is red and white, with the player’s name and his jersey number at the top. The custom-made cards also are adorned with a Bulls logo.

“So when guys come through the doors they punch in now,” Boylen said. “Punching in to work.”
   684. Booey Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5893468)
Joel Anthony once played 28:46 without recording a point, rebound, assist, steal or block, but he did commit 4 fouls and had a turnover. Snell also had a game where he went 28:25 with no positive stats, but did miss 2 shots and commit a foul.


I always find it amusing when a professional athlete has a game where I can smile smugly and honestly say, "I could've done that." (and for a lot less money!). Same as when a baseball player strikes out in every AB and commits an error the only time(s) a ball is hit towards him. I could totally do that.
   685. aberg Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5893473)
I dimly remember some oafish mid-90s big man achieving an 11 trillion, but that might just be me wishcasting.


My dad and I referred to the trillion as a Stojko, in honor of the awful Wolves center Stojko Vrankovic, long before Mark Titus came along. I wonder if it was him.
   686. aberg Posted: October 23, 2019 at 01:52 PM (#5893476)
I always find it amusing when a professional athlete has a game where I can smile smugly and honestly say, "I could've done that." (and for a lot less money!). Same as when a baseball player strikes out in every AB and commits an error the only time(s) a ball is hit towards him. I could totally do that.


The main inhibiting factor is that I fear I might get injured while commiting one of those four fouls.
   687. TFTIO is building his own mealworm farm Posted: October 23, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5893485)
My dad and I referred to the trillion as a Stojko, in honor of the awful Wolves center Stojko Vrankovic, long before Mark Titus came along. I wonder if it was him.

You know, it might've been! This was when I was living in Minneapolis (~1995 - 2000) and my roommate and I were despairing, being both Wolves fans.
   688. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5893486)
This is interesting:
Tom Haberstroh @tomhaberstroh
Your eyes weren't deceiving you. Anthony Davis registered 17 post-up plays last night, per NBA/Synergy tracking. That's a career-high for the 8-year pro.
   689. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5893491)
I've got no takes on Lakers-Clippers, other than it was exciting and those two teams are going to be damn fun. My extremely early thought on what the Lakers are missing is another creator, and I'm not sure they have that guy on the roster yet. But they've got plenty of time to round out the roster.
   690. aberg Posted: October 23, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5893498)
This is interesting:
Tom Haberstroh @tomhaberstroh
Your eyes weren't deceiving you. Anthony Davis registered 17 post-up plays last night, per NBA/Synergy tracking. That's a career-high for the 8-year pro.


Just an elaborate way to troll Dwight.
   691. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5893531)
1. Players should sign wherever they want.
2. I really fail to see how this kind of thing helps them, at all. The standard line is it "puts pressure on their team to try to win now" but I'm reasonably sure the Bucks are quite aware of Giannis's contract situation.
Journal Sentinel @journalsentinel
Giannis says if Bucks underperform, decision to stay in Milwaukee becomes 'a lot more difficult'
   692. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5893537)
I've got no takes on Lakers-Clippers, other than it was exciting and those two teams are going to be damn fun. My extremely early thought on what the Lakers are missing is another creator, and I'm not sure they have that guy on the roster yet. But they've got plenty of time to round out the roster.
i have a take:

LAC beat LAL despite not having paul george, with LAL getting a huge game out of danny green.


this season isn't over, but LAC just planted their flag at the top of the mountain. they are real, and they are spectacular.
   693. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2019 at 04:00 PM (#5893542)
anyone have a guess what the defensive matchups are going to look like in tonight's sixers-celtics game?

simmons
richardson
tharris
horford
embiid

vs.

kemba
brown (smart?)
haryhbeotng
tatoom
timelord (kanter? smart? sullinger? yabusele?)



i'd guess richardson takes kemba; horford goes on tatoom; tharris on harmtpeha; simmons on brown; embiid on olynyk.
   694. jmurph Posted: October 23, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5893551)
i'd guess richardson takes kemba; horford goes on tatoom; tharris on harmtpeha; simmons on brown; embiid on olynyk.

That seems about right, except maybe Horford on Gordita Hayworth and Harris on Tatum?

I don't love that before they figure their big man #### out the Celtics start the season against the one big team in the league, but I'm looking forward to seeing Kemba! Hopefully I don't vomit when Horford comes out in a Sixers uniform.
   695. aberg Posted: October 23, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5893554)
tatoom


Yes, correct. Yes.
   696. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: October 23, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5893558)
It seems to me like there are two and only two things that matter for the 2019-2020 Lakers: That they make the playoffs, and that LeBron and Davis are both healthy for the playoffs.

LeBron is old and coming off a season lost to injury, and Davis picks up an ouchie about once a month, has for years. The interesting question is, do the Lakers have depth enough to give those guys the rest they're going to need over the season, and most particularly in March/April, and still make the playoffs? Or are they going to be forced to run LeBron and Davis out there to play through pain/fatigue just to secure a playoff spot, leaving them potentially with not enough left in the tank for a deep playoff run?

The Warriors are in a similar spot with Steph, but maybe not quite as starkly. Whereas the Clippers have more depth and thus more room to deal with injuries and keep their stars fresh.

I guess I'll be the first to come right out and predict Giannis will not stay in Milwaukee, regardless of how this year and next year go. He'll be gone.
   697. spivey Posted: October 23, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5893565)
I guess I'll be the first to come right out and predict Giannis will not stay in Milwaukee, regardless of how this year and next year go. He'll be gone.


There's way too much that can happen between now and then.
   698. Der-K: at 10% emotional investment Posted: October 23, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5893574)
I used to have a basketball board game and would use Stojko as a starter - there, he was a high percentage finisher and protected the rim.
This is why house rules matter.
That said, he had his real world uses - as I recall, he did have a pretty good impact on opposing fg%. That Wolves contract was bad, though.
—-
Hawks finally added a backup pg ... sort of. Ty Wallace, who has nice size, but can’t shoot or create for others.
   699. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: October 23, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5893576)
That Wolves contract was bad, though.


Not disagreeing with this, but it's a measure of how successful the NBA has been that a bad contract in the 90s was 3/10.5. Bismack Biyombo is making $68M on his current contract!
   700. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: October 23, 2019 at 06:22 PM (#5893579)
I guess I'll be the first to come right out and predict Giannis will not stay in Milwaukee, regardless of how this year and next year go. He'll be gone.


trade machine: who says no?

MIL: ben simmons, tharris
PHI: giannis
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