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Thursday, October 24, 2019

OT - NBA Thread, Start of the 2019-2020 Season

I estimate only 10-12 Primates care about the NBA, and we’re the only people that matter.

Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 24, 2019 at 02:42 PM | 792 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: basketball, china, nba, off-topic

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   601. spivey Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5899704)
Oh, and filp.
   602. billyshears Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:52 AM (#5899711)
Fizdale did some weird #### last year, but I kind of gave him a pass because the roster was so bad. Knox wasn't (and probably will never be) a #1 option, Nkilitina was a ghost, Dennis Smith was a rumour, and most of the rest of the roster was a rotating cast on non-NBA level players. So I could almost understand why the lineup was never the same twice and the offense basically consisted of everybody crossing half-court and looking at each other with an expression that screamed "What do we do now?"

Now, this year's roster obviously doesn't make any sense, but Barrett is a legit piece and everybody else mostly belongs in the NBA. Even Nkilitina looks non-ineffectual. But the lineups still seem picked at random and they're not playing with any sort of cohesive philosophy. The Knicks were always going to be a bad team, but they shouldn't be so bad that they're non-competitive over half of the time. I can get behind bad and scrappy - that can be fun. I can't get behind this #### over and over again. It's demoralizing. At least I have the Jets. And the Mets. Oh, f*ck . . .
   603. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 01:49 PM (#5899768)
This seems bad:
Nets -13.4 Points Per 100 Possessions With DeAndre Jordan, +12 With Jarrett Allen
   604. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5899773)
DAJ has been a dog for about 3 years now. Not sure why anyone is surprised at this point.
   605. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5899778)
The Nets might be surprised! There's giving Durant/Kyrie the LeBron treatment and signing their friend, and then there's what they did- commit 4 years and $40 million to the guy. Totally crazy.
   606. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5899832)
Friday night, let's check out the big national game on ESPN... oooh Cavs-Wiz obviously, makes sense.
   607. Randomly Fluctuating Defensive Metric Posted: November 08, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5899833)
DAJ has been a dog for about 3 years now. Not sure why anyone is surprised at this point.


The guy was a Knick recently! Say no more.
   608. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 08, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5899846)
Eye test schmeye test, but to me Porzingis has also looked awful. Nothing really looks right (shot, athleticism, mental, defense). Wonder if it's lasting injury effect, rust, or something else.
   609. JJ1986 Posted: November 08, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5899848)
Projected top-5 pick James Wiseman declared ineligible by the NCAA.
   610. billyshears Posted: November 08, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5899852)
Memphis coach Penny Hardaway assisted Wiseman and his family's move to Memphis in 2008, attorney Leslie Ballin said in a news conference -- and the NCAA has deemed Hardaway a booster.


From the ESPN article. I have to assume the 2008 date is supposed to be 2018. Otherwise, my admiration for Hardaway's scouting abilities would be through the roof.

Edit: ESPN already fixed it.
   611. tshipman Posted: November 08, 2019 at 06:55 PM (#5899862)
I hope the kid plays in Australia or the G league.
   612. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 08, 2019 at 07:24 PM (#5899865)
Eye test schmeye test, but to me Porzingis has also looked awful. Nothing really looks right (shot, athleticism, mental, defense). Wonder if it's lasting injury effect, rust, or something else.
It's not just the eye test. The Mavs are 5-2, but Unicorn has a positive plus/minus in just two games thus far: +1 against Cleveland, and +3 against the Wizards. I've only seen him in two games thus far (and it's not fair to judge him against Anthony Davis) but it looks like a combination of rust and recovery. I don't think we see full Porzingis until next year. Until then, Kleber is the best big man on that team.
   613. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 08, 2019 at 07:56 PM (#5899873)
has anyone posted this? it's my favorite thing ever right now. i love this man, so much.

@YahooSportsNBA
“It’s not about them right now, it’s about me.”

Jimmy not trying to share the spotlight with his teammates
   614. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: November 08, 2019 at 08:56 PM (#5899876)
Friday night, let's check out the big national game on ESPN... oooh Cavs-Wiz obviously, makes sense.

seriously, what were they thinking? It makes sense to get a dog every once in a while on national tv due to unforeseen circumstances but in no world was this going to be a worthwhile game when the schedule was set.
   615. Ken Griffey's Grotesquely Swollen Jaw Posted: November 08, 2019 at 08:58 PM (#5899877)
seriously, what were they thinking?

and yet I'm watching it as I wait for Bucks/Jazz to start so I guess the joke's on me.
   616. Athletic Supporter is USDA certified lean Posted: November 08, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5899883)
Every team gets to be on national TV, right? Burn two teams early rather than having then on in March.
   617. NJ in NY (Now with two kids!) Posted: November 08, 2019 at 10:47 PM (#5899892)
Frank Ntilinka currently having the game of his life and boy is it fun.
   618. jmurph Posted: November 08, 2019 at 10:48 PM (#5899893)
Ryan Saunders locking up Coach of the Year: Wiggins is good now?
   619. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 08, 2019 at 10:59 PM (#5899894)
Tristan Thompson is having a good start to the year.
   620. Tin Angel Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:01 PM (#5899896)
D'Angelo Russell got 37 shots up in 40 minutes. Not like the Warriors have other options at this point.
   621. spivey Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:15 PM (#5899897)
This Bucks/Utah game is pretty intense for early season basketball.
   622. SteveF Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:17 PM (#5899898)
D'Angelo Russell got 37 shots up in 40 minutes. Not like the Warriors have other options at this point.

Plus they need to pump his value up before they trade him to the Knicks.
   623. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:20 PM (#5899899)
this is gonna be one hell of a loss.
   624. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:21 PM (#5899900)
Plus they need to pump his value up before they trade him to the Knicks sixers.
FTFY
   625. spivey Posted: November 08, 2019 at 11:49 PM (#5899904)
Milwaukee lost that game on OOB play calling (and 3pt variance)
   626. tshipman Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:12 AM (#5899905)
Imagine losing a game because Frank Ntilinka goes 4/5 from 3p on you.
   627. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: November 09, 2019 at 01:06 AM (#5899906)
From following NBA coverage this season it sounds like every team is either improved or at least as good as they were last year except the Kings, Magic, Blazers, Raptors, and Warriors. A lot of happy fanbases. I guess when the Warriors are going to lose 40 more games than they did last year there's a lot of wins to go around.
   628. Howie Menckel Posted: November 09, 2019 at 01:16 AM (#5899907)
ESPN Stats & Info
@ESPNStatsInfo
·
1h
D'Angelo Russell had 52 points earlier tonight and Damian Lillard has 50 points in a game in progress in Portland.

This is the first time multiple NBA players scored 50 points on the same day since Allen Iverson (53) and Vince Carter (51) on December 23, 2005.
   629. Booey Posted: November 09, 2019 at 01:24 AM (#5899909)
I love Bogdanovic already. Such a perfect fit for the team, and such a great ending to the game (I mean, not as good as not blowing a 22 pt lead in the first place would have been, but still...)

And while I'm feeling good about Utah basketball teams, I don't even follow college sports but apparently the Utes beat something called a Mississippi Valley State by 94 pts, 143-49.
   630. Booey Posted: November 09, 2019 at 01:28 AM (#5899910)
#628 - Hey, I was at that game where VC scored 51! It was against the Heat in Miami. I remember it well because A) Vince's 51 is still the most pts I've seen in a game I attended in person, and B) it's the only non-Jazz NBA game I've ever attended.
   631. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 09, 2019 at 02:08 AM (#5899913)
The Lakers hold the Heat to just 4 points over the last 7:48. They have been legitimately awesome on defense, and they were awesome in the 4th tonight.
   632. . . . . . . Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:35 AM (#5899920)
While watching the knicks continues to suck, at the end of the day I think things are breaking OK for them. Things are starting to slow down for Knox and I’m cautiously optimistic they get a starter out of him. Robinson clearly will be a starting caliber player. Barrett looks a bit better than expected and I’m hoping could be the second best player on a very good team.

They’re tracking toward a top 3 pick in draft where most of the top prospects are guards and their biggest need is at guard. They’re going to ultimately have money to spend for a star big and star bigs are coming available in FA.

Roll forward to 2021-2022: Robinson-[FA big]-Knox-Barrett-[2020 top 3 guard] might not suck.
   633. jmurph Posted: November 09, 2019 at 09:17 AM (#5899923)
I wonder if the Sixers will ultimately consider employing guards? Their halfcourt offense is a thing to behold.
   634. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 09, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5899925)
The Lakers have to be especially happy with their success so far considering they haven't really shot the 3 very well, around 31%.
   635. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 09, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5899928)
629–“something called a Mississippi Valley State”—dude, they make the tournament like once a decade!
[checks Wikipedia, to see if he’s totally full of ####]
OK, five times since 1986, in which they actually pushed Duke in the first round,
   636. Red Voodooin Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:19 AM (#5899932)

seriously, what were they thinking? It makes sense to get a dog every once in a while on national tv due to unforeseen circumstances but in no world was this going to be a worthwhile game when the schedule was set.


The only sense I can make of it is that they were looking to showcase Rui to Japanese-American audience?

   637. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5899940)
The greatest WR of all time went to Mississippi Valley State.
   638. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:21 AM (#5899950)
The greatest WR of all time went to Mississippi Valley State marshall.
FTFY
   639. puck Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:46 AM (#5899964)
What the heck happened in the 4th Q of the 76ers @ Nuggets? 35-13??
   640. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5899970)
Stiggles, Jerry Rice didn't play for Marshall.
   641. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5899973)
What the heck happened in the 4th Q of the 76ers @ Nuggets? 35-13??
2nd night of a back to back; at altitude; foul trouble; shots stopped going in; simmons and thybulle were both DNP'd, which kind of blows a hole in the sixers' perimeter defense; tharris, horford and richardson combined to score 28 points on 12/36 shooting; raul neto and trey burke played 48 minutes after mostly being out of the rotation entirely through the first few weeks; jokic did this.


   642. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:03 PM (#5899975)
Stiggles, Jerry Rice didn't play for Marshall.
russian, jerry rice isn't randy moss.
   643. jmurph Posted: November 09, 2019 at 12:51 PM (#5899996)
Sixers/Nuggets: Neither team was on a back to back, though Embiid certainly played like he was!
   644. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 09, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5900017)
The best thing about Sixers-Nugs was that literally the first thing the Sixers announcers said about Jokic after the tip was about how fat he looked. Even into the 4th quarter, when the Sixers were still up by 14, they were talking about how Jokic just looked like a big fat guy. 26 points, 10 boards, 6 assists, +18 for the game (16-4-1 in the 4th). At the end, the announcers sounded shellshocked. I love when homer announcers sound shellshocked.
   645. jmurph Posted: November 09, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5900060)
Was all over twitter too, Hombre. Meanwhile their guy is absolutely gassed after playing 29 minutes, having sat out two recent games for the suspension.
   646. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 09, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5900062)
Speaking of Twitter....
Ryan Blackburn
@NBABlackburn

Last night, with Nikola Jokic defending him, Joel Embiid performed as follows:

0 points
0/7 FG
0 assists
3 turnovers

And Jokic blocked a shot.
   647. puck Posted: November 09, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5900080)
Speaking of Twitter....


Nikola Jokic, noted defensive stopper!
   648. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 09, 2019 at 06:28 PM (#5900096)
Broken left hand for Gordon Hayward.

Man is snake-bit.
   649. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 09, 2019 at 06:58 PM (#5900097)
The fun thing is about Randy Moss vs. Jerry Rice is that in just about every category, Moss was awesome -- and Rice has him beat by a fair bit.
   650. SteveF Posted: November 09, 2019 at 07:03 PM (#5900098)
Randy Moss was the better basketball player, though.
   651. JJ1986 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 07:26 PM (#5900106)
Rob Williams is really throwing it down tonight.
   652. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 07:43 PM (#5900112)
The fun thing is about Randy Moss vs. Jerry Rice is that in just about every category, Moss was awesome -- and Rice has him beat by a fair bit.

rice played the entirety of his prime with two hall of fame QBs, in the most innovative and advanced offensive scheme in NFL history, for an organization that had already won 2 superbowls before he got there.

moss played ~4 years with daunte culpepper, 2 with brady and the rest of his career was a string of journeyman QBs: kerry collins, jeff george, gus frerotte, brad johnson, todd bouman, matt cassell, randall cunningham.


jerry rice was a great player; randy moss was an unstoppable force of nature.
   653. DCA Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:08 PM (#5900115)
rice played the entirety of his prime with two hall of fame QBs,

It's quite likely you have the causation wrong. Every quarterback that throws to Jerry Rice becomes an all-time great. Young retires, the next year Jeff Garcia leads the league in total offense. Rice is traded to the Raiders and Rich Gannon has his two best seasons at age 36 and 37.
   654. CFBF's Overflowing Pathos Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:08 PM (#5900116)
Broken left hand for Gordon Hayward.


Who?
   655. Booey Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:32 PM (#5900118)
#654 - I think he means Giblet Harumph.

That's too bad though. He was playing well.
   656. PJ Martinez Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:35 PM (#5900119)
Yeah, it's a bummer about Hooligan, who's been awesome in the early going.

Timelord really gets up there.
   657. Tin Angel Posted: November 09, 2019 at 08:48 PM (#5900123)
Ryan Blackburn
@NBABlackburn

Last night, with Nikola Jokic defending him, Joel Embiid performed as follows:

0 points
0/7 FG
0 assists
3 turnovers

And Jokic blocked a shot.


Tell your old man to drag Jokic and KAT up and down the court for 48 minutes!
   658. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 09:03 PM (#5900124)
It's quite likely you have the causation wrong. Every quarterback that throws to Jerry Rice becomes an all-time great. Young retires, the next year Jeff Garcia leads the league in total offense. Rice is traded to the Raiders and Rich Gannon has his two best seasons at age 36 and 37.

rice wasn't even the best WR on the 49ers when garcia took over; terrell owens was (which, to be clear, is not a knock on rice; owens is one of the 5 best WRs in NFL history).

meanwhile, gannon's breakout came two years before rice got to OAK.

also, again, joe montana was an inner circle HoFer before rice got to the NFL.


i'll grant you steve young; he was clearly a creation of rice's greatness.
   659. . . . . . . Posted: November 09, 2019 at 09:45 PM (#5900136)
I’ve never met anyone who’s seriously into football who doesn’t think Moss is the greatest WR by peak. Career totally different question.
   660. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: November 09, 2019 at 10:26 PM (#5900138)
Moss played in a much more pass happy NFL than Rice, and Rice still has better stats. Rice was great at everything, not just catching the ball.

Moss was an all time great WR. As a Viking fan I am a huge fan. Rice was a better player.

Side note: My brother taught Rice to swim.
   661. Tin Angel Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:01 PM (#5900139)
All this Randy Moss talk made me re-watch the 30 for 30 on him called Rand University. Had no idea he and Jason Williams played high school basketball together. Crazy.
   662. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:27 PM (#5900143)
@BillSimmons

Felt this way for a week. Was obeying JINX rules, no longer care because the following is just true...

The Celts are legit good.

No more ball-stoppers. Ball moves. Everyone attacks. And Hayward is 2017 Hayward again. (Can’t speak for the chemistry but that seems too.)
@BillSimmons
I should just delete Twitter
@BillSimmons
I’m covering myself in chicken blood and eating a ouija board.
   663. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 09, 2019 at 11:31 PM (#5900144)
@IraHeatBeat
PerESPN: Heat guard Dion Waiters experienced a panic attack on the team's charter flight Thursday night after consuming a THC-infused edible.
   664. Tin Angel Posted: November 10, 2019 at 12:03 AM (#5900150)
Take it easy on those gummies tonight Stiggles.
   665. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5900166)
Boston: I overrated them last year, and it looks like I underrated them this year. And like last year, it is pretty simple: Hayward, Tatum, and Brown are all doing better than I thought they would, and as expected, Walker is a reasonable replacement for Irving. Enes Kanter is doing his thing: DBPM is -2.3, and his OBPM is +2.1. His on/off is -20.3. Anyway, if Hayward comes back, they will be pretty dangerous.
Baby Lakers: I had some fairly fractious exchanges at a couple of Lakers sites over the last two years, with people talking up Ingram, Russell, Randle, Ball and Zubac. Ingram's PER is 24.5, and Russell's is 23.6. Randle is off slowly--12.6. Ball is at 14.7. NO is 2-7, GS is 2-8, and NYK is 2-7. Gentry has always been a bad defensive coach IMO.
Coaching: Early results are suggestive of why I think coaching can be overrated, although I certainly owned that I underrated Budenholzer's impact on the Bucks last year. Kerr is not any dumber than he was last year, and Vogel is not any smarter. People here sometimes talk up Stotts a lot, and Portland is 3-6, since Portland did not do anything to upgrade personnel and the conference is deeper. I do think Vogel, who I think is probably a pretty good defensive coach, has helped the Lakers on D a bit so far. Saunders and Williams seem to be having positive impacts so far.

   666. JC in DC Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:25 AM (#5900169)
New York: I'm don't think Knox is starter quality on a good team. I just don't see a ton of defensive energy. His shot looks good, and he rebounds ok, but I'm not sold. He's still got youth and a good body in his corner. Frank: By far my favorite player; I have an inordinate affection for this guy. When NJ and I picked him in our draft, I (we, perhaps), both banked on his high-quality defense. I thought that was an obvious elite skill that you could count on and that could make him a long-time usable player. The knocks against him were shot and handle. Among the problems in his first two seasons were unexpected inconsistent defensive intensity and the expected shot and handle issues. The Dallas game was a revelation, but not one we haven't seen from him. What he showed, aside from the unrepeatable hot hand (in the sense I don't expect he'll become a 75% 3pt shooter), was the expected elite defensive skill and its versatility. He's really special defensively, if he can just stay on the floor. I believe in his ability to shoot. I believe as well his handle has improved. His biggest offensive problem is deeper than inconsistent attack: you simply cannot afford to have a PG who puts almost no attack pressure on the offense. If Friday's game was indicative of some changed mentality, all to the good. If not, Fiz will bounce between Frank, Elfrid, and Dennis.
   667. jmurph Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:33 AM (#5900171)
rr: I don’t think Kanter will make any (positive) impact, but I just wanted to note he’s only played one game.

Also their only loss, perhaps not coincidentally.
   668. jmurph Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:34 AM (#5900172)
The Celtics have been a lot of fun so far and the young guys have basically all looked good. I’m going to not panic on Hayward until the recovery timeline comes out today or tomorrow, but he’s been great so far.
   669. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:36 AM (#5900173)
I have not seen New York play yet. Been busy at work, so have only made time for four Lakers games and couple of others (saw some of MIL-UTA and enjoyed it).
   670. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:44 AM (#5900181)
667: Yes, I know.

Hayward is supposedly deciding whether to have surgery. He will almost certainly be back by postseason, maybe sooner.
   671. JC in DC Posted: November 10, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5900188)
rr: even for me it's tough to justify carving out time to watch NY play.
   672. billyshears Posted: November 10, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5900190)
666 -

Knox: I think you're a bit too down on him. He's doing everything better than he was last year, and some things a lot better (granted, there was nowhere to go but up). He also just looks better. He's young, even for a second year player, and his body had a long way to go when he entered the league, and he's only just starting to gain strength. Now, the defensive cluelessness is an issue, but I'm a bit naive and have to expect that will get better with experience. Knox might never be a star, but I think he can be an average or better starter.

Frank: I'm mostly with you. His shot always looked good, so I never believed it was broken, even though it rarely ever went in (look at us Knicks fans, with the boundless optimism). There were just too many games where the only thing he did was provide above average on ball defense. Which is nice, but not nearly enough. Everybody talks about his mentality, which is a thing, but I also think the handle was a real issue which prevented him from doing much of anything on offense. If that has improved significantly, he's got a chance to be something.
   673. JC in DC Posted: November 10, 2019 at 01:18 PM (#5900202)
I hope you're right about Knox, but suspect I am.

Frank's handle is better than fine. The problem is his passivity. If you're not attacking, you will get eaten by quality defense. Too often he's not attacking, going nowhere, or in predictable, lateral directions. Then he loses the ball. But a lot of this is on management. I think it's important that this is year three. As many of us have said, the developmental pattern of a lot of young pgs is to take a few years. He's only now 21. If they would just be patient, hell be fine. His on/off defensive numbers are very good. I saw an article that showed how effective he was on Doncic Friday that was also confirmed by watching the game. The kid can defend.
   674. PJ Martinez Posted: November 10, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5900203)
Hayward is supposedly deciding whether to have surgery. He will almost certainly be back by postseason, maybe sooner.

Most of the reporting I've seen suggests that while things are very much up in the air a plausible timeline is 3-6 weeks. Knock on wood and everything, but that's a standard amount of time for a fracture in the non-shooting hand. Stevens, after the game, said, "he’ll just be off a few weeks or a month or whatever it is." We'll see, obviously, but the early sense of things seems to be that he'll be back by Christmas.

Edit: For what it's worth, Stevens also said, "Sounds like should he decide (to get surgery), the surgery option might actually be a better timeline."
   675. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 01:40 PM (#5900207)
Fair enough, and the fact that it is the non-shooting hand obviously helps. But of course what else is Stevens going to say, and a hand injury is ofc very different for a guy playing pro basketball than it is for a typical guy. I was long on the postseason timeline--was not really thinking when I typed it. I do not think that this will derail either Hayward or Boston, especially in the East, and I hope that it doesn't. The plus is that it it not recurring type thing, but it is not a minor injury, either.
   676. PJ Martinez Posted: November 10, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5900209)
Yeah, I know -- anything leg-related would have been even more of a bummer. His struggles last year did seem at least partly mental (understandably), so I do worry about a setback even if he's only gone a couple of months (or less, for that matter).

But I think the bigger issue for Boston, as far as anything like actual contention goes, is the same as it's been the past few seasons: the absence of any clear superduperstar. Hayward's been their best player in the early going, and he's been really really good -- but we're still talking fringe-All NBA level, not top-ten-in-the-league territory. I'm much more optimistic about the Celtics than I was on opening night, but I still don't see how they break into the top tier.

On the plus side, Robert Williams seemed to have a mini-breakout game against San Antonio. He's not always in the right place, and he's a non-shooter, but he's a really tantalizing player even so.
   677. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 02:22 PM (#5900212)
676--

Good post (although TBH the Robert Williams stuff reminds me of Lakers fans posting about Zubac and Josh Hart last year). But if they have Hayward/Walker/Tatum/Brown playing at this level, then they are, as Simmons says, "legit good" and a threat. As I noted when discussing Utah, IMO there is no "superduper" team..except mayyybee (fukc) the Clippers. If James were 29, or if the Lakers had a third All-Starrish guy, then they would be it. He's not and they don't. If Milwaukee had a second guy a bit better than Bledsoe and Middleton, then they would be it. If Philadelphia had a good guard who could shoot, Top 40ish guy, then they would be it.

So:

1. This year's champion may be determined by an in-season personnel move.
2. As Lowe has rightly pointed out many times, injuries affect every playoff field. One reason Jordan was Jordan is that he never had a bad injury during the Chicago glory years. So it is likely, unfortunately, that at least one or two big names will be out/banged up.
3. Barring personnel changes, I think the window is open for a team like Utah/Boston (AKA The Ultimate Booey Narrative Finals).

Houston: The have not lost since I posted saying that I thought they might be in trouble. OTOH, the wins were against MEM, GS and CHI. They play the Clippers Wednesday night.
   678. tshipman Posted: November 10, 2019 at 03:45 PM (#5900221)
IMO there is no "superduper" team..except mayyybee (fukc) the Clippers. If James were 29, or if the Lakers had a third All-Starrish guy, then they would be it. He's not and they don't. If Milwaukee had a second guy a bit better than Bledsoe and Middleton, then they would be it.


By SRS, there are two super-teams: the Bucks and the Lakers, who both have SRS over 10.

Boston and Utah are close behind around 9., with the Clippers and the Heat rounding out the preliminary championship contenders (SRS over 7).

This season is weird in that it is historically unusual to have such a polarized league. The Grizzlies, Warriors and Knicks are all pretty historically bad so far, and there are only 11 teams with a positive rating, which means the league is unusually top heavy. Part of this is that it is still early, but SRS does normalize relatively quickly. If the league is still this top heavy after 20 games, it is somewhat likely to remain that way.
   679. PJ Martinez Posted: November 10, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5900224)
Yeah, I have it in my head that 20 games is the moment at which you can start drawing real conclusions. I don't know if the numbers back that up or not, though, it just seems about right.

I haven't looked at 538's RAPTOR tool much, but FWIW:
A few weeks into the NBA season, and our projections have the league separating into reasonably clear tiers for title contention.

Tier 1: MIL, LAC, PHI
Tier 2: HOU, UTA, LAL, BOS! (yep, we're accounting for the Hayward injury), DEN
   680. PJ Martinez Posted: November 10, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5900229)
By the way, re: 677, the Hart/Zubac analogy with Robert Williams is perfectly fair; all these guys are young and could still become good players, IMHO. Nate Duncan compared Williams the other day to Nerlens Noel -- who, lest you haven't heard it from Stiggles recently, is still just 25 and seems to be off to a decent start this year (though he remains a bench guy on an underwhelming team).
   681. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 10, 2019 at 06:15 PM (#5900235)
Jokic with a fall away 18-footer to give the Nugs a 100-98 lead with just 2.4 left in overtime. It's hard to tell if he's lucky or just that good.

EDIT: And ballgame. Nuggets win again. Somehow, they're 7-2.
   682. rr: calming the thread down with my arms Posted: November 10, 2019 at 06:55 PM (#5900239)
SRS/Tiers: The Clippers being that high in SRS when Leonard has sat out twice and George has not played at all suggests why they are for many the favorites. Both the Lakers and Boston have had starts with everything going right: I did not take Boston that seriously because I did not think that Hayward would come back this strong, and I have always been skeptical about Tatum and Brown. Since all three of them have been good-to-excellent, that combined with Walker has put the team at 7-1. For the Lakers, they needed James and Davis to be healthy and to be THE KING AND THE BROW, and they needed a 3rd guy to exceed expectations. Through eight games, that is exactly what is going on, so they too are 7-1.

Hart/Zubac/Williams: Zubac has a 30.2 PER, but like most old-school bigs, he is a PT player in today's game: 16 MPG. Hart is a likable player and does some things well, but he is already 24 and is just a rotation guy. I don't know much about Williams except that he currently has a .783 FG% after going .730 in 39 games last year, and it is hard not to be good doing that, but this is a 6-8 guy who has never shot a 3 in 46 NBA games and shoots under 60% at the stripe. So we will see. Sounds like a specialist/rotation guy in today's game to me.
   683. PJ Martinez Posted: November 10, 2019 at 07:51 PM (#5900251)
Jokic with a fall away 18-footer to give the Nugs a 100-98 lead with just 2.4 left in overtime. It's hard to tell if he's lucky or just that good.
Apparently he has hit five game-winners in the final 10 seconds since the start of last season, more than anyone in the league. (Paul George has four.)
   684. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 10, 2019 at 10:08 PM (#5900261)
Brian Geltzeiler @hoopscritic
Just overheard a Knick fan say “With the way this team passes, they might as well sign Melo”. That about sums it up
   685. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 10, 2019 at 10:11 PM (#5900263)
Lakers had a chance to dribble down for the last shot in the first quarter. Instead, AD lost the ball, and they give up five points in the last 3 seconds. Meh.
   686. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 10, 2019 at 10:18 PM (#5900264)
KCP is really struggling. He just looks skittish on both sides of the court.
   687. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:16 PM (#5900267)
Kuzma has been a non-factor since he has reutrned.
   688. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:29 PM (#5900268)
The Raptors have done a great job collapsing on Anthony Davis, and inviting the Lakers to beat them from beyond the arc. So far, that's keeping them right there. If the Lakers can just make a couple of 3s, they'll win this game, but there's zero guarantee they can do that. They just look totally lost on offense.
   689. jmurph Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:36 PM (#5900269)
Does Caruso not have anyone in his life who cares about him? He simply has to shave his head.
   690. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:40 PM (#5900270)
Oof. Lakers gonna drop this one at home. It's not like the Raptors are blowing them up. Toronto just made a few baskets. The Lakers haven't made any. 9 blocked shots by the Raptors helped with that.

   691. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:56 PM (#5900274)
Fastbreak points:
Raptors 32, Lakers 8

I really like this Lakers team, but they are not a good offensive squad. If Lebron isn't Lebron, they're going to struggle.
   692. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: November 10, 2019 at 11:56 PM (#5900275)
That's an impressive win for the Raptors. They got some big games from young players and they really played LBJ tough.

Masai is just really good.
   693. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:14 AM (#5900276)
Does Caruso not have anyone in his life who cares about him? He simply has to shave his head.
if there was anyone in his life who cared about him, he would have quit playing basketball in high school.
   694. Mike A Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:16 AM (#5900277)
So...the Hawks score with .7 seconds to tie the game with the Trail Blazers. You figure .7 seconds isn't really enough time to get off a decent shot unless you pull a Laettner or something.

But wait! The Trail Blazers have a time out! That means they can skip to half-court and throw it in from there!

Why does this rule exist? I guess I don't understand why/how a team can forward the ball without...forwarding the ball.

(The Trail Blazers got a decent shot off, it missed, though they won in OT. But still.../rant over)
   695. calming him down with his 57i66135 Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:27 AM (#5900279)
Why does this rule exist? I guess I don't understand why/how a team can forward the ball without...forwarding the ball.

(The Trail Blazers got a decent shot off
you answered your own question there. buzzer beaters are fun, and that makes them more likely to occur.
   696. Tin Angel Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:30 AM (#5900280)
if there was anyone in his life who cared about him, he would have quit playing basketball in high school.


Yes, because working your average day job would be way better than making $2.75 million to play basketball for the Los Angeles Lakers eight months a year while dating this girl. I bet he's regretting it every night. He probably wishes he just had a boring day job where he could sit on the internet and propose three or four completely absurd trade proposals every day.
   697. Booey Posted: November 11, 2019 at 12:56 AM (#5900281)
Always remember; even balding, goofy looking bench players are still NBA players, better at what they do than we'll ever be at anything, and probably making more money than we'll ever make.
   698. Mike A Posted: November 11, 2019 at 01:09 AM (#5900282)
you answered your own question there. buzzer beaters are fun, and that makes them more likely to occur.
Yeah. One could argue that you don't get the Laettner play, but you also don't get the Jordan/Ehlo play without the half-court TO rule. It still seems kind of absurd to me that the game gets fundamentally altered based on the time situation, but like you said, they want the drama.

Apparently this rule has always been in the modern NBA, as it dates back to the 60s. So I can't even go on a 'it was better in my day' screed.
   699. danup Posted: November 11, 2019 at 01:12 AM (#5900283)
If Caruso were a regular guy he'd have to shave his head, but now the severe balding is part of his brand—he's more famous because he looks like this. He's going to have to get on Propecia to ensure he can stay exactly this bald for the rest of his career.
   700. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: November 11, 2019 at 01:46 AM (#5900284)
On top of the money and hot girl and living the dream, he gets to have an epic nickname: Bald Mamba.

Damn me and my full head of thick, lustrous hair!
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