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Obviously not.
I'd rather have the next 10 years of (blank)'s career than Kapernick's.
I think the arguments for Kaepernick are pretty obvious. Here are some arguments against.
1) Small sample: His start in the Super Bowl will be only his 10th game as a starter. I don;t think he's a flash in the pan but he has yet to start against the same opponent twice.
2) He has a lot of talent surrounding him: The Niners have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. The Niners have an excellent offensive line with two guys who made the All-Pro team, an excellent running back, and physically gifted players at WR and TE. The Niners had six guys make the All-Pro first or second teams on defense. That's a lot more talent than guys like RG3, Cam Newton and Luck have had so far in their careers. The Niners won 13 games last season and would likely have won their division with Alex Smith if he doesn't get hurt.
3) He's not old but Griffin, Newton, Luck, Wilson, and Stafford are all younger than he is.
i think two is a point in the kid's favor, not against.
you have that type of infrastructure and that really helps do things that might otherwise be beyond his true talent level.
that was troy aikman's ticket to the hof. nobody here is going to convince me that aikman was anything but a solid qb. ken anderson was just as good if not better and anderson ain't in the hof. though he has an argument if you ask me
Harvey you are not alone here in your opinion on Aikman. Solid player in the right place at the right time.
(I am a Niner's fan).
But enough cannot be said about how ballsy it was for Harbaugh to go with Kaep after one game. I think it was a good decision, but still, very ballsy.
And John Harbaugh canned his OC and gave the job to someone who never called plays before. Maybe not as ballsy but still a significant risk that paid off.
It doesn't have to be a QB only but it'd be hard for another position to have as big if an impact in today's NFL with the rules being what they are.
Russell Wilson. Megatron. Maybe Julio Jones.
10 years... very different set of answers than if the question were 5 years.
Rodgers
Ryan
Wilson
Roethlisberger
Griffin
Newton
Luck
Dalton
Flacco
Eli, Stafford, maybe Freeman are close.
Brees (and obviously Manning and Brady) eliminated solely due to age.
Including non-qbs I'd probably add Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, maybe Demaryius Thomas, and probably Peterson.
The SSS issue is a big one for me. Kaep has looked great the vast majority of the time so far, but it remains to be seen how he fares in his second trip around the league and against truly good defenses - he pretty much stunk against the Seahawks, and hasn't faced very good defenses in general since he's been starting.
Is this actually documented, or are you just throwing this against the wall?
Ryan: I'd take Kaepernick over Ryan. He has been excellent the last few years but he also has arguably the best receivers in the league.
Wilson: I'd take Kaepernick. Similar performance this year and Wilson did it for the entire year but we are talking about 8 games. That said, Kaepernick has the bigger upside in my opinion. I like his size more. Also, a lot of the advantages that Kaepernick has enjoyed can be said about Wilson as well.
Roethlisberger: I'd take Kaepernick. Ben is going to be 31 in a few months and has started to miss some games over the last few years. I'm not sure he is going to last 10 years.
Griffin: I'd take Kaepernick but only because of health. On pure talent and results this year, I think I'd have RG3 more than anyone else. That's not a great roster and he made them a dynamic team. But he's already had two major knee surgeries. How long will he last?
Newton: No argument here.
Luck: No argument here.
Dalton: I'd take Kaepernick. He was pretty awful at the end of this year. I know QB rating is an imperfect stat but his rating was less than 80 in 5 of his last 6 games this year.
Flacco: Lots of talent and playoff success. I'll take Kaepernick because of the offense upside. He hasn't been great in the regular season. Homerism may be a factor here.
Eli: No argument here.
Stafford: I'd take Kaepernick because of the athleticism/mobility but the sample size issue is big here. Stafford was amazing in 2011 and has tons of talent.
Freeman: Kaepernick. Freeman has been mediocre for the last two seasons.
You pretty much picked every QB who has had any success other than Romo over Kaepernick. Why not Romo?
stafford has terrible mechanics. everyhting is awful. i cannot stand to watch him play
How the mighty have fallen.
So, Kaepernick?
The only reason Matt Ryan isn't obviously near the top of these lists is because his defenses couldn't stop the run.
I'll look at any of those above lists and be inclined to rank them on the strength of their various tendons, bones and muscles. But if you assume good health (a huge "if" in some cases) over the next 10 years, I'd take Griffin/Wilson/Kaepernick at the top, followed by Rodgers/Luck/Flacco and then probably Newton/Ryan and Manning/Brady. Brady's at the bottom solely because of his age, and if I were talking about 5 years he'd be at the other end of the scale. What's sad to realize is that the chances that all of these guys will be in one piece 10 years from now is about 1 in a million. I'd say Luck, Flacco and maybe Wilson probably have the best chance of survival.
I was really close to picking Ryan over Kaepernick. But the 24-2 game against the Giants, blowing 20 and 17 point leads at home against the Seahawks and Niners...
The Falcons got the ball back with a 13 point lead and 13 minutes left against the Seahawks. They were playing at home against a QB that has not been outstanding on the road. Ryan could have put a dagger in that game and not left it up to the defense at all.
The Falcons got shutout in the second half against the 49ers.
I am pretty high on Kaepernick so it's not meant as a slight that I'd rank Kaepernick ahead of him. I think you can win a Super Bowl with him as your QB.
And let's not forget that after the defense blew the lead against Seattle, he answered back to take the lead.
I would be surprised if Peterson has anything in the tank after five more years; running backs just don't have that long of a career. The only running backs to have 1000 yards rushing after age 32 are John Riggins (twice), John Henry Johnson (twice), and Franco Harris. Doug Martin has a better chance of beating Kaepernick over the next ten years than Peterson does, simply because Doug Martin might actually play 10 more years.
What does Roddy White being held on 4th down have to do with this?
Agreed. RBs take a pounding on every play. Average career length is 4 years. You build around a QB and a receiver corps.
You build around a QB and offensive line. If you have a great QB, you can get get receivers to perform.
Having watched both Calvin Johnson and Bay-Bay Thomas attempt to chase down wounded ducks at Georgia Tech over the years, I can only concur with this. Even Megatron can only do so much with Reggie Ball heaving #### in random directions.
You say this like that's not a completely reasonable thing to want. Coaches that seem to have no understanding that they're in the entertainment business really annoy me.
Do you expect television producers and writers to do appearances on the red carpet at Oscar time? The entertainment is the play, not the hacks scripting it out.
1) As mentioned above, 1-3-5-7-10 years will give you totally different answers.
2) Salary cap considerations? That would probably limit the competition to "Wilson, Russell". RGIII/Newton/Luck are all at least as good as Kaep but #1ish picks have a $ price.
Of the "big 3" only Rodgers is young enough to get 8 years quality years out. With no $ considerations he's a no-brainer.
3) Age. Should it be measured in years or "mileage"?
4) Was does 9 games mean? It means his variance is higher than, say Russell's Wilson's (18 games) - who, by the way had 3 horrible games in his first 7, too. Even Kapernick's worst game (@SEA he had >6 AY/A) - better than RW, RGIIs, Luck's, and Newton's worst. Newton has about 12 games worse than that in 2 years.
So, head to head with Wilson - they have pretty similar stat lines, and both played for teams with solid run games and great defenses and played similarly tough regular season schedules. Wilson is obviously more projectable since he threw twice as much. But - where are they on the learning curve (which we can presume get progressively steeper)? Wilson is younger, but has had more game snaps and practice reps. Kaepernick got to play understudy last year. I think that you can argue that - given the variance/sample size, Wilson is more likely to have a "good" career, but Kapernick is more likely to be in the HOF. Wilson is ridiculous as avoiding pressure and buying time. Both of them probably can learn a lot about reading defenses and making decisions - but "can learn" != "will learn". As opposed to a guy like Luck - how much better could he be (I say this having watched maybe 5 quarters of Luck play, and not with a critical eye).
Kaepernick has that ridiculous arm. But maybe he turns out to be "just Jay Cutler who can run" rather than Steve Young.
That is all I can say without real scouting.
I think on the RGII/Luck side - they are more expensive BUT they also have significantly worse supporting casts. But the fact remains that both Wilson (full season) and Kaep (1/2 season) out played them. Cam Newton OTOH... has *extremely* similar stats to Kaepernick (in 4 times the PT) AND a worse team. And a very similar body type (I think he is listed as 20 lbs more). So he can obviously take more hits -- but would Kapernicks sprint speed save him more hits? Almost certainly his OL and defense will [but that's not fair since we are drafting one or the other).
I wonder if Jim Harbaugh would trade Kaepernick for Luck straight up? Anyone else would probably be a fool not to... but if anyone knows both QBs it's him.
That is a very long winded non-list of QBs I would take over Kaepernick.
Top 4 QBs, % of deep passes throw (>20 yards):
Cutler (28.6)
Kaepernick (28.5)
Flacco (26.4)
Luck (26.3)
INT rates are interesting too... since they should generally be regressed heavily. RGIII/Kapernick/Flacco very low. Wilson/Newton average. Luck/Cutler (for comparison's sake) below average.
Part of that is play calling. Roethlisberger threw fewer deep passes this year, in part because they got rid of Bruce Arians. Who called plays for Andrew Luck. And now that Arians is in Arizona, it wouldn't be surprising if Luck threw deep a little less next year.
Ryan is very solid. He's not in the Brees/Brady/Peyton class. Can he get better?
The rookies/sophomores we are talking about aren't in the elite class, either (I mean not even huge niner homers like me put that much weight on 9 games. Or in RGIII's case, 14ish healthy games). But they are so young we presume they have upside. If Matt Ryan has their upside (and this is a question only a scout/coach could answer), then for sure he's a great pick. But there is a difference between a top 10 and and top 3 QB.
Take Eli Manning for example - he was a middle-of-the road guy, but cracked the top 10 in 2009/2011, then slid back to earth.
Rivers is essentially Drew Brees with fewer "solid" years and the huge years bunched (2008-2010) instead of spread out over a decade.
Flacco and Ryan are 110ish players by ANY/P+ (100 average).
Rodgers/Peyton/Brady are in the 120-130 range for multiple years (Brees has 3) - that's the HOF level. Best seasons all time are 140/150 (and the holy 21st century triumverate each have a year or two like that).
Kapernick/Wilson/RGIII all put up 118-120 this year (SSS).
Indeed, but I was using it as a proxy for "difficulty". It's also a function of receivers - of which Flacco's are exemplary and the rest are meh+
So adding completion %
Cutler (28.6) 58.8%
Kaepernick (28.5) 62.4%
Flacco (26.4) 59.7%
Luck (26.3) 54.1%
and for comparison
Wilson (24) 64.1%
Newton (23.3) 57.7%
Ryan (18.4) 68.6%
RGIII (18.2) 65.3%
Alex Smith (13.8) 70.2% - the lowest deep % and highest completion %.
You see Kapernick and Wilson the real standouts here. They certainly don't have the best receivers. But they also have the best RB in an option-y offense.
I am guessing that "ANY/P+" is adjusted net yards/pass (attempt?)? Where'd you get the numbers from? Is this like what pro-football-reference uses?
There's far better indicators of difficulty adjusted QB measurements.
Eggs-actly.
I can tell you that I'd be glad to take him as my QB any day of the week.
a good number of great qbs came from interesting places
brett favre--southern miss
warren moon--canada
dave krieg--milton college
kurt warner--northern iowa, grocery bagger
Flacco went to Pitt, but he couldn't find time behind the immortal Tyler Palko. He transferred to Delaware, so Pitt made him sit out a year.
back in the day purdue was quite the quarterback factory
kyle orton
Drew Brees
Jim Everett
Mark Herrmann
gary danielson
i did not include curtis painter or guys from the far past like griese or dawson
That's the point: no one thinks of Purdue as a football factory. But it's produced 3 great ones. Meanwhile Ohio State's best QB is... Mike Tomzack. Of course, QB isn't everything.
Sports talk radio is a waste of time. Except Chuck Oliver.
no argument from me on orton. but sure as shooting if i don't list that guy someone will pipe in, 'what about orton?'
Heh, it's a guilty pleasure. They were acting like there's a Peyton Manning on the free agent market every single year.
Ryan has Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to. A lot of quarterbacks would look good with that receiving corps.
but then Phipps came along and blew the "cradle of quarterbacks" out of the water
This is the same talk radio crowd that wants to fire Mark Richt every off season. They're not smart people.
The primary need is the latter, not the former. They do need to replace Michael Turner soon, but Jaquizz Rodgers is a solid back with good hands. The Falcons' primary problem this post-season was that they built their defense to stop Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers, and then had to face two Cam Newton clones with Pro Bowl running backs behind them, instead.
Don't tell me you fell for that.
Is it fake? I have no idea.
EDIT: Yeah, apparently it's fake. Okay. Clearly not Matt Ryan now that I look at it.
Yeah, now that I pay the slightest bit of attention it's clearly fake. My bad. Skimming is often deleterious to the details.
3 QBs are going to go in the first round. smith (west virginia) will be the first off the board, barkley (USC) will also find his way into the top half of the round, and ryan nassib (syracuse) will slip into bottom half.
lane johnson (OT, oklahoma) will find his way into the first round, and quite possibly all the way into the top 10.
also, since i'm a huge sucker for a good tight end, my #1 is zach ertz (stanford), and my other favorites are dion sims (michigan state), joseph fauria (UCLA), and travis kelce (cincinnati).
with the eagles picking at #4 overall, what i see are 2 (more or less) elite players at premium positions (luke joeckel and jarvis jones). i also see another elite player at a non-premium position (chance warmack), and 3 other guys who are quality players at premium positions, but just not elite (dee millner, bjoern werner, and geno smith).
and with the eagles potentially having 2 or more picks in the 20-50 range, my favorite prospects likely to go in that area include johnson, ertz, ezekial ansah (DE, BYU), xavier rhodes (CB, florida state), bacarri rambo (S, georgia), khaseem greene (LB, rutgers), margus hunt (DE, SMU), kyle long (OT, oregon), xavier nixon (OL, florida) and logan ryan (CB, rutgers).
some of the more interest later round talent that i have an eye on include arthur brown (LB, kansas state), jamie collins (LB, southern miss), brian winters (OL, kent state), brian schwenke (OL, cal), william gholston (DL, michigan state), devin taylor (DE, south carolina), devonte holloman (LB, south carolina), dj swearinger (S, south carolina), dwayne gratz (CB, uconn), mike gillislee (RB, florida), and jordan mills (OL, louisianna tech).
While there were many factors with the Raiders losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, I dont think the coach intentionally trying to lose was one of them.
Some columnist (I think for Fox Sports &/or Sporting News), about a month ago, project Arkansas' Tyler Wilson as the first QB chosen, around the 10th pick. As a Razorback fan, I found that intriguing, but by no means convincing.
Yes, the + just normalizes for season (like OPS+ or ERA+) It's also from pro-football reference.
The ?ep is from http://advancedfootballstats.com/
Sometimes I look at both ANY/A and NY/A if I because the first has sacks in it. Sacks are (in my understanding) like 1/3 OL and 1/3 QB and 1/3 scheme.
And yes DA I am very familiar with FOs stats I look them weekly during the season. DVOA doesn't go back as far as "regular" stats, is not era adjusted, and I find that ANY/A is an adequate proxy. I also use EPA (EPA/P) and sometimes WPA from advancedfootballstats. Another useful check is the SR% (success rate) from afs becuase it's what gets mushed into DVOA. All of these measures correlate very strongly.
And Ray, QB Rating is the RBI of football stats. ESPN's total QBR is the "Total Average" of baseball stats. With the additional minus that it's proprietary.
I probably loathe Billy C as much as anyone on this board, for reasons that have nothing to do with his time in Oakland, but this is quite the stretch. Tim Brown also has an ax to grind with the way Billy C reduced his role at WR.
Well, it's like my grand pappy always said: \"#### Catholics!" (Pappy wasn't known for his PC notions of plurality in the modern world, you see.)
I think you shoot for a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith, not sure if you get it but there are teams with bad QBs, as usual, to where he's a real upgrade.
I think you shoot for a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith, not sure if you get it but there are teams with bad QBs, as usual, to where he's a real upgrade.
I had that thought too. I think you ask for it, expect you don't get it, settle for a 3rd.
"In a way, maybe because he didn't like the Raiders, he decided to, 'Hey look, maybe we should sabotage a little bit and let Jon Gruden go out and win this one,' " Rice said.
I do hope they trade him to the AFC because if he simply gets released, I think he could make a team like Arizona a lot scarier. Smith isn't a savior but you can win with him if he's got some talent surrounding him.
And the Cowboys timed their announcement of Callahan as their play caller why?
That's a given, although I have no desire to see that. I'm saying, in the "Notre Dame alum distracts from Notre Dame story" theory there is no explanation for why the thing that prompted Brown's remarks. Or reason for Rice to defend him. But keep on that theory Bill Simmons.
He's a literal upgrade for 10-15 teams but most of them the upgrade is very marginal and while he has a "fair" contract it's not super cheap. Plus on a bunch of those teams he'd just be a stop gap for the upside of a couple of 7-9 seasons while they restock (Philly, KC, Jax, Tennesee). And some of THOSE teams have a first or second year QB they presumably like.
What team actually has good enough non-QB personnel to give up a draft pick for Alex Smith? Cardinals for sure. Jets I guess. Dolphins? I think teams like Minnesota or Tampa Bay will take their chances with their young guys. Buffalo?
KC probably takes Geno Smith. It's theoretically possible that Chip Kelly prefers Smith to Foley, but he's got time to turn that team around.
I guess the Tebow and Carson Palmer overpays do happen, but I can't predict that level of irrational exuberance for the "Solid but unexciting Smith".
Are there any teams that someone thinks had a strongly underperforming defense and no QB?
My prediction is a 5th rounder.
Don't forget, Matt Flynn will be on the market too.
I don't think the Dolphins would want to trade for Smith. Tannehill did not have that bad of a season considering the lack of playmakers the Dolphins have at WR.
I think Cleveland would be one team that would possibly be a good fit. Buffalo might be as well but they gave Fitzpatrick a huge extension just last year. I don't know whether they have the financial flexibility to cut him.
Unless Alex Smith is playing offensive line for Arizona, he's not that much of an upgrade. I feel like KC is a better fit for him with Andy Reid's offense (and there's a long tradition of SF QB's going to KC.)
Pittsburgh might be an option if Alex is ready to be a backup; I think Roethlisberger is likely to consistently miss 3-4 games per season over the next few years and Alex Smith would be an upgrade over Batch/Leftwich/whatever. San Diego's also a possibility if they decide to dump Rivers as part of their house-cleaning (which they shouldn't do, but I could see it happening.)
Smith absolutely is not ready to back up. There's no chance he ends up in Pittsburgh. He'd never go to a team with an established franchise QB and the Steelers would never trade for a backup that makes that much money.
I do agree that KC makes sense.
The 49ers leverage is that once he's released you're in a war with the other teams that need QBs. Whereas if you make a deal for him he's yours, and at a reasonable contract.
Don't forget, Matt Flynn will be on the market too.
For the same price (in terms of contract/cap number). Yet Smith has actually performed. I don't think Smith will fetch a ton (relatively, for a starting QB), but it will be more than a 5th round pick. I think you ask for a 2nd, hope for a 3rd, be willing to take a 4th, particularly if it's from a crappy team and will be high in the 4th round.
Yeah Smith isn't going to Pittsburgh (not by choice at least). The candidates right now look like KC, Cleveland, and Buffalo, as the 49ers probably won't trade Smith to the Cardinals. Either way the value of marginal to decent upgrades (which Smith would be for a lot of teams) shouldn't be overlooked in the NFL - there's a lot of value in sneaking into the playoffs, even to just get blown out by the 1st or 2nd seed. Teams on the bubble will make moves to sneak in at 9-7, even while they're developing their young guy.
Alex better get ready to back up, because he might not get a choice about it (unless he runs to Canada). The recent influx of young QB's in the draft has significantly improved the replacement level.
"The 49ers leverage is that once he's released you're in a war with the other teams that need QBs."
right, if 2 teams want him, that gives the 49ers some leverage. If not, ok they're in a bind. But it's silly to say that any team can just wait til he's released, unless you assume that is the only team that wants him.
Ponder is ... um ... not very good (flashes of pretty good occasionally I admit). He might turn into something, but I can see MN sending a draft pick to get Smith (3rd or 4th, but not much more).
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