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Monday, November 05, 2012

OT: NFL/NHL thread

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: November 05, 2012 at 11:03 PM | 9270 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, nhl

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   2901. smileyy Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:33 PM (#4352117)
Sorry but (talking to the media) is part of the job.


Obviously not.

   2902. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:42 PM (#4352125)
Here's a topic I'd like to get your thoughts on.

I'd rather have the next 10 years of (blank)'s career than Kapernick's.


I think the arguments for Kaepernick are pretty obvious. Here are some arguments against.

1) Small sample: His start in the Super Bowl will be only his 10th game as a starter. I don;t think he's a flash in the pan but he has yet to start against the same opponent twice.

2) He has a lot of talent surrounding him: The Niners have a lot of talent on both sides of the ball. The Niners have an excellent offensive line with two guys who made the All-Pro team, an excellent running back, and physically gifted players at WR and TE. The Niners had six guys make the All-Pro first or second teams on defense. That's a lot more talent than guys like RG3, Cam Newton and Luck have had so far in their careers. The Niners won 13 games last season and would likely have won their division with Alex Smith if he doesn't get hurt.

3) He's not old but Griffin, Newton, Luck, Wilson, and Stafford are all younger than he is.

   2903. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:49 PM (#4352131)
russlan

i think two is a point in the kid's favor, not against.

you have that type of infrastructure and that really helps do things that might otherwise be beyond his true talent level.

that was troy aikman's ticket to the hof. nobody here is going to convince me that aikman was anything but a solid qb. ken anderson was just as good if not better and anderson ain't in the hof. though he has an argument if you ask me
   2904. zenbitz Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:58 PM (#4352139)
I assume qbs only?
   2905. DA Baracus Posted: January 21, 2013 at 06:59 PM (#4352142)
I'd rather have Andrew Luck.

Harvey you are not alone here in your opinion on Aikman. Solid player in the right place at the right time.
   2906. tshipman Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:03 PM (#4352146)
I'd rather have Luck or Cam Newton. Those two are easy, anyone else is a bit of a guess.

(I am a Niner's fan).

But enough cannot be said about how ballsy it was for Harbaugh to go with Kaep after one game. I think it was a good decision, but still, very ballsy.
   2907. DA Baracus Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:06 PM (#4352149)
But enough cannot be said about how ballsy it was for Harbaugh to go with Kaep after one game. I think it was a good decision, but still, very ballsy.


And John Harbaugh canned his OC and gave the job to someone who never called plays before. Maybe not as ballsy but still a significant risk that paid off.
   2908. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:10 PM (#4352152)
Harvey, I may have worded my question incorrectly. Basically, if you were starting a franchise from scratch, who would you rather have than Kaepernick for the next ten years?

It doesn't have to be a QB only but it'd be hard for another position to have as big if an impact in today's NFL with the rules being what they are.
   2909. JJ1986 Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:12 PM (#4352155)
I'd pick Rodgers first very easily despite the age.
   2910. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:13 PM (#4352156)
Basically, if you were starting a franchise from scratch, who would you rather have than Kaepernick for the next ten years?


Russell Wilson. Megatron. Maybe Julio Jones.
   2911. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: January 21, 2013 at 07:20 PM (#4352159)
Now he's still a great coach, and his team is very successful but.....
I think he'll be OK.
   2912. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: January 21, 2013 at 08:05 PM (#4352189)
I assume the question is meant to be context-free (as clarified in 2908) and qbs only (too hard to compare otherwise).

10 years... very different set of answers than if the question were 5 years.

Rodgers
Ryan
Wilson
Roethlisberger
Griffin
Newton
Luck
Dalton
Flacco

Eli, Stafford, maybe Freeman are close.

Brees (and obviously Manning and Brady) eliminated solely due to age.

Including non-qbs I'd probably add Calvin Johnson, Julio Jones, AJ Green, maybe Demaryius Thomas, and probably Peterson.

The SSS issue is a big one for me. Kaep has looked great the vast majority of the time so far, but it remains to be seen how he fares in his second trip around the league and against truly good defenses - he pretty much stunk against the Seahawks, and hasn't faced very good defenses in general since he's been starting.
   2913. Famous Original Joe C Posted: January 21, 2013 at 08:19 PM (#4352196)
Belichick, maybe the biggest egomaniac in league history, seems to have no life beyond football.


Is this actually documented, or are you just throwing this against the wall?
   2914. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:03 PM (#4352209)
Rodgers: I hesitated for one second but that is pure homerism. No real argument against Rodgers here.

Ryan: I'd take Kaepernick over Ryan. He has been excellent the last few years but he also has arguably the best receivers in the league.

Wilson: I'd take Kaepernick. Similar performance this year and Wilson did it for the entire year but we are talking about 8 games. That said, Kaepernick has the bigger upside in my opinion. I like his size more. Also, a lot of the advantages that Kaepernick has enjoyed can be said about Wilson as well.

Roethlisberger: I'd take Kaepernick. Ben is going to be 31 in a few months and has started to miss some games over the last few years. I'm not sure he is going to last 10 years.

Griffin: I'd take Kaepernick but only because of health. On pure talent and results this year, I think I'd have RG3 more than anyone else. That's not a great roster and he made them a dynamic team. But he's already had two major knee surgeries. How long will he last?

Newton: No argument here.

Luck: No argument here.

Dalton: I'd take Kaepernick. He was pretty awful at the end of this year. I know QB rating is an imperfect stat but his rating was less than 80 in 5 of his last 6 games this year.

Flacco: Lots of talent and playoff success. I'll take Kaepernick because of the offense upside. He hasn't been great in the regular season. Homerism may be a factor here.

Eli: No argument here.

Stafford: I'd take Kaepernick because of the athleticism/mobility but the sample size issue is big here. Stafford was amazing in 2011 and has tons of talent.

Freeman: Kaepernick. Freeman has been mediocre for the last two seasons.

You pretty much picked every QB who has had any success other than Romo over Kaepernick. Why not Romo?
   2915. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:16 PM (#4352218)
dalton is a joke. no idea who dubbed him anything than just a guy.

stafford has terrible mechanics. everyhting is awful. i cannot stand to watch him play
   2916. JJ1986 Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:21 PM (#4352221)
You pretty much picked every QB who has had any success other than Romo over Kaepernick.


How the mighty have fallen.
   2917. DA Baracus Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:22 PM (#4352223)
Dalton didn't progress an inch this year. He is what he is and without AJ Green he's nothing.

Eli: No argument here.


So, Kaepernick?
   2918. JJ1986 Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:29 PM (#4352226)
I think it's actually really tricky to rank the QBs 2-10 for the next 10 years. 4 of the guys are in their first year playing and Newton's in his 2nd. I might take Matt Ryan #2 just because of the track record.
   2919. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:42 PM (#4352236)
I think it's actually really tricky to rank the QBs 2-10 for the next 10 years. 4 of the guys are in their first year playing and Newton's in his 2nd. I might take Matt Ryan #2 just because of the track record.


The only reason Matt Ryan isn't obviously near the top of these lists is because his defenses couldn't stop the run.
   2920. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:49 PM (#4352243)
I think it's actually really tricky to rank the QBs 2-10 for the next 10 years. 4 of the guys are in their first year playing and Newton's in his 2nd. I might take Matt Ryan #2 just because of the track record.

I'll look at any of those above lists and be inclined to rank them on the strength of their various tendons, bones and muscles. But if you assume good health (a huge "if" in some cases) over the next 10 years, I'd take Griffin/Wilson/Kaepernick at the top, followed by Rodgers/Luck/Flacco and then probably Newton/Ryan and Manning/Brady. Brady's at the bottom solely because of his age, and if I were talking about 5 years he'd be at the other end of the scale. What's sad to realize is that the chances that all of these guys will be in one piece 10 years from now is about 1 in a million. I'd say Luck, Flacco and maybe Wilson probably have the best chance of survival.
   2921. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:53 PM (#4352246)
The only reason Matt Ryan isn't obviously near the top of these lists is because his defenses couldn't stop the run.

I was really close to picking Ryan over Kaepernick. But the 24-2 game against the Giants, blowing 20 and 17 point leads at home against the Seahawks and Niners...



   2922. DA Baracus Posted: January 21, 2013 at 09:55 PM (#4352251)
What does Matt Ryan have to do with the defense blowing leads?
   2923. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:08 PM (#4352260)
What does Matt Ryan have to do with the defense blowing leads?

The Falcons got the ball back with a 13 point lead and 13 minutes left against the Seahawks. They were playing at home against a QB that has not been outstanding on the road. Ryan could have put a dagger in that game and not left it up to the defense at all.

The Falcons got shutout in the second half against the 49ers.

I am pretty high on Kaepernick so it's not meant as a slight that I'd rank Kaepernick ahead of him. I think you can win a Super Bowl with him as your QB.
   2924. DA Baracus Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:12 PM (#4352263)
He didn't help the cause in the 2nd half against SF, but nothing he did "blew the lead." If he threw a pick six, okay. But the defense blew the lead, not him.

And let's not forget that after the defense blew the lead against Seattle, he answered back to take the lead.
   2925. thok Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:17 PM (#4352267)
and probably Peterson.


I would be surprised if Peterson has anything in the tank after five more years; running backs just don't have that long of a career. The only running backs to have 1000 yards rushing after age 32 are John Riggins (twice), John Henry Johnson (twice), and Franco Harris. Doug Martin has a better chance of beating Kaepernick over the next ten years than Peterson does, simply because Doug Martin might actually play 10 more years.
   2926. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:20 PM (#4352269)
The Falcons got shutout in the second half against the 49ers.


What does Roddy White being held on 4th down have to do with this?
   2927. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:23 PM (#4352272)
I would be surprised if Peterson has anything in the tank after five more years; running backs just don't have that long of a career.


Agreed. RBs take a pounding on every play. Average career length is 4 years. You build around a QB and a receiver corps.
   2928. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: January 21, 2013 at 10:44 PM (#4352291)
Agreed. RBs take a pounding on every play. Average career length is 4 years. You build around a QB and a receiver corps.

You build around a QB and offensive line. If you have a great QB, you can get get receivers to perform.
   2929. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:29 PM (#4352315)
You build around a QB and offensive line. If you have a great QB, you can get get receivers to perform.


Having watched both Calvin Johnson and Bay-Bay Thomas attempt to chase down wounded ducks at Georgia Tech over the years, I can only concur with this. Even Megatron can only do so much with Reggie Ball heaving #### in random directions.
   2930. billyshears Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:51 PM (#4352327)
This is about wanting to see Belichik on his knees in defeat after the game. Nothing more, nothing less.


You say this like that's not a completely reasonable thing to want. Coaches that seem to have no understanding that they're in the entertainment business really annoy me.
   2931. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:52 PM (#4352328)
Coaches that seem to have no understanding that they're in the entertainment business really annoy me.


Do you expect television producers and writers to do appearances on the red carpet at Oscar time? The entertainment is the play, not the hacks scripting it out.
   2932. zenbitz Posted: January 21, 2013 at 11:58 PM (#4352330)
A couple of salient side points:

1) As mentioned above, 1-3-5-7-10 years will give you totally different answers.

2) Salary cap considerations? That would probably limit the competition to "Wilson, Russell". RGIII/Newton/Luck are all at least as good as Kaep but #1ish picks have a $ price.

Of the "big 3" only Rodgers is young enough to get 8 years quality years out. With no $ considerations he's a no-brainer.

3) Age. Should it be measured in years or "mileage"?

4) Was does 9 games mean? It means his variance is higher than, say Russell's Wilson's (18 games) - who, by the way had 3 horrible games in his first 7, too. Even Kapernick's worst game (@SEA he had >6 AY/A) - better than RW, RGIIs, Luck's, and Newton's worst. Newton has about 12 games worse than that in 2 years.

So, head to head with Wilson - they have pretty similar stat lines, and both played for teams with solid run games and great defenses and played similarly tough regular season schedules. Wilson is obviously more projectable since he threw twice as much. But - where are they on the learning curve (which we can presume get progressively steeper)? Wilson is younger, but has had more game snaps and practice reps. Kaepernick got to play understudy last year. I think that you can argue that - given the variance/sample size, Wilson is more likely to have a "good" career, but Kapernick is more likely to be in the HOF. Wilson is ridiculous as avoiding pressure and buying time. Both of them probably can learn a lot about reading defenses and making decisions - but "can learn" != "will learn". As opposed to a guy like Luck - how much better could he be (I say this having watched maybe 5 quarters of Luck play, and not with a critical eye).

Kaepernick has that ridiculous arm. But maybe he turns out to be "just Jay Cutler who can run" rather than Steve Young.
That is all I can say without real scouting.

I think on the RGII/Luck side - they are more expensive BUT they also have significantly worse supporting casts. But the fact remains that both Wilson (full season) and Kaep (1/2 season) out played them. Cam Newton OTOH... has *extremely* similar stats to Kaepernick (in 4 times the PT) AND a worse team. And a very similar body type (I think he is listed as 20 lbs more). So he can obviously take more hits -- but would Kapernicks sprint speed save him more hits? Almost certainly his OL and defense will [but that's not fair since we are drafting one or the other).

I wonder if Jim Harbaugh would trade Kaepernick for Luck straight up? Anyone else would probably be a fool not to... but if anyone knows both QBs it's him.

That is a very long winded non-list of QBs I would take over Kaepernick.
   2933. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:09 AM (#4352340)
Also amusing stat:

Top 4 QBs, % of deep passes throw (>20 yards):

Cutler (28.6)
Kaepernick (28.5)
Flacco (26.4)
Luck (26.3)

INT rates are interesting too... since they should generally be regressed heavily. RGIII/Kapernick/Flacco very low. Wilson/Newton average. Luck/Cutler (for comparison's sake) below average.


   2934. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:19 AM (#4352344)
Top 4 QBs, % of deep passes throw (>20 yards):


Part of that is play calling. Roethlisberger threw fewer deep passes this year, in part because they got rid of Bruce Arians. Who called plays for Andrew Luck. And now that Arians is in Arizona, it wouldn't be surprising if Luck threw deep a little less next year.
   2935. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:25 AM (#4352346)

Ryan is very solid. He's not in the Brees/Brady/Peyton class. Can he get better?

The rookies/sophomores we are talking about aren't in the elite class, either (I mean not even huge niner homers like me put that much weight on 9 games. Or in RGIII's case, 14ish healthy games). But they are so young we presume they have upside. If Matt Ryan has their upside (and this is a question only a scout/coach could answer), then for sure he's a great pick. But there is a difference between a top 10 and and top 3 QB.

Take Eli Manning for example - he was a middle-of-the road guy, but cracked the top 10 in 2009/2011, then slid back to earth.
Rivers is essentially Drew Brees with fewer "solid" years and the huge years bunched (2008-2010) instead of spread out over a decade.
Flacco and Ryan are 110ish players by ANY/P+ (100 average).

Rodgers/Peyton/Brady are in the 120-130 range for multiple years (Brees has 3) - that's the HOF level. Best seasons all time are 140/150 (and the holy 21st century triumverate each have a year or two like that).

Kapernick/Wilson/RGIII all put up 118-120 this year (SSS).
   2936. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:35 AM (#4352348)
Part of that is play calling. Roethlisberger threw fewer deep passes this year, in part because they got rid of Bruce Arians. Who called plays for Andrew Luck. And now that Arians is in Arizona, it wouldn't be surprising if Luck threw deep a little less next year.


Indeed, but I was using it as a proxy for "difficulty". It's also a function of receivers - of which Flacco's are exemplary and the rest are meh+
So adding completion %

Cutler (28.6) 58.8%
Kaepernick (28.5) 62.4%
Flacco (26.4) 59.7%
Luck (26.3) 54.1%

and for comparison
Wilson (24) 64.1%
Newton (23.3) 57.7%
Ryan (18.4) 68.6%
RGIII (18.2) 65.3%
Alex Smith (13.8) 70.2% - the lowest deep % and highest completion %.

You see Kapernick and Wilson the real standouts here. They certainly don't have the best receivers. But they also have the best RB in an option-y offense.
   2937. puck Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:47 AM (#4352352)
Flacco and Ryan are 110ish players by ANY/P+ (100 average).

I am guessing that "ANY/P+" is adjusted net yards/pass (attempt?)? Where'd you get the numbers from? Is this like what pro-football-reference uses?
ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
   2938. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:48 AM (#4352354)
Indeed, but I was using it as a proxy for "difficulty".


There's far better indicators of difficulty adjusted QB measurements.

   2939. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:02 AM (#4352357)
You build around a QB and offensive line. If you have a great QB, you can get get receivers to perform.


Eggs-actly.
   2940. Ray (RDP) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:07 AM (#4352358)
As to Flacco, an 86.3 career QB rating in this era is really nothing special. But he does win (54-26) and has postseason success (7-4 and now with the chance to win the SB). He throws deep, which everyone knows I like. Granted his deep balls look a bit too balloon-y to me, but I'm not a scout so wtf do I know.

I can tell you that I'd be glad to take him as my QB any day of the week.
   2941. Jim Wisinski Posted: January 22, 2013 at 01:34 AM (#4352361)
Something I really like about the QB matchup in the Super Bowl is that it's someone from a mid-major conference (and Nevada isn't even one of the usual mid-major powers) against someone from freaking Delaware, a Division 1-AA school. It's always nice to see guys like that doing big things at the prime position in the NFL.
   2942. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 08:17 AM (#4352385)
jim

a good number of great qbs came from interesting places

brett favre--southern miss
warren moon--canada
dave krieg--milton college
kurt warner--northern iowa, grocery bagger
   2943. Howie Menckel Posted: January 22, 2013 at 08:41 AM (#4352390)

Flacco went to Pitt, but he couldn't find time behind the immortal Tyler Palko. He transferred to Delaware, so Pitt made him sit out a year.

   2944. zack Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:17 AM (#4352408)
Moon went to juco and then was a Huskie. He only went to the CFL because black guys obviously can't be NFL quarterbacks.
   2945. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:20 AM (#4352410)
Joe Montana managed to overcome playing at Notre Dame, too.
   2946. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:37 AM (#4352449)
Matt Ryan is from that football powerhouse up at Boston College. Drew Brees came out of...Purdue.
   2947. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:54 AM (#4352470)
Johnny Unitas went to Louisville. Brett Favre Southern Miss, Terry Bradshaw Louisiana Tech, Roger Staubach Navy, Drew Brees and Bob Griese Purdue, Phil Simms Moorehead State... what school you went to is trivial.
   2948. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:09 AM (#4352487)
sam/da

back in the day purdue was quite the quarterback factory

kyle orton
Drew Brees
Jim Everett
Mark Herrmann
gary danielson

i did not include curtis painter or guys from the far past like griese or dawson
   2949. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:11 AM (#4352494)
Atlanta radio was discussing the possibility of getting rid of Matt Ryan last night. A few weeks ago it was Flacco, although that's died down now that they're in the SB. My question is, 'who are you going to get that's better?" Finding a good QB is hard.
   2950. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:13 AM (#4352495)
I forgot about Len Dawson. Orton isn't good enough to count.

That's the point: no one thinks of Purdue as a football factory. But it's produced 3 great ones. Meanwhile Ohio State's best QB is... Mike Tomzack. Of course, QB isn't everything.
   2951. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:14 AM (#4352496)
Atlanta radio was discussing the possibility of getting rid of Matt Ryan last night.


Sports talk radio is a waste of time. Except Chuck Oliver.
   2952. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:23 AM (#4352506)
edit: wrong place
   2953. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:24 AM (#4352507)
I forgot about Len Dawson. Orton isn't good enough to count.

no argument from me on orton. but sure as shooting if i don't list that guy someone will pipe in, 'what about orton?'
   2954. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:32 AM (#4352517)
Sports talk radio is a waste of time


Heh, it's a guilty pleasure. They were acting like there's a Peyton Manning on the free agent market every single year.
   2955. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:38 AM (#4352523)
The only 'elite' QB on the market is Joe Flacco right now. Ryan's good, he's not great, but he needs what every QB needs. A good running game, and a defense that can produce punts.
   2956. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4352524)
Jim Everett
don't you mean chris?
   2957. Tom Nawrocki Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:48 AM (#4352529)
Ryan's good, he's not great, but he needs what every QB needs. A good running game, and a defense that can produce punts.


Ryan has Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to throw to. A lot of quarterbacks would look good with that receiving corps.
   2958. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:12 PM (#4352558)

back in the day purdue was quite the quarterback factory

kyle orton
Drew Brees
Jim Everett
Mark Herrmann
gary danielson

i did not include curtis painter or guys from the far past like griese or dawson

but then Phipps came along and blew the "cradle of quarterbacks" out of the water
   2959. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 12:45 PM (#4352594)
Atlanta radio was discussing the possibility of getting rid of Matt Ryan last night.


This is the same talk radio crowd that wants to fire Mark Richt every off season. They're not smart people.

Ryan's good, he's not great, but he needs what every QB needs. A good running game, and a defense that can produce punts.


The primary need is the latter, not the former. They do need to replace Michael Turner soon, but Jaquizz Rodgers is a solid back with good hands. The Falcons' primary problem this post-season was that they built their defense to stop Drew Brees, Eli Manning and Aaron Rodgers, and then had to face two Cam Newton clones with Pro Bowl running backs behind them, instead.
   2960. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 03:09 PM (#4352720)
Though after this, the Falcons may be looking to move Matt Ryan soon too. Bad idea, Matty. Bad idea.
   2961. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 03:13 PM (#4352727)
Though after this, the Falcons may be looking to move Matt Ryan soon too. Bad idea, Matty. Bad idea.


Don't tell me you fell for that.
   2962. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4352734)
Don't tell me you fell for that.


Is it fake? I have no idea.

EDIT: Yeah, apparently it's fake. Okay. Clearly not Matt Ryan now that I look at it.
   2963. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 03:32 PM (#4352742)
It's so clearly fake. It doesn't sound like him, look like him and there is no reason a camera would be swinging around for 4 minutes like that.
   2964. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 03:36 PM (#4352747)
It's so clearly fake. It doesn't sound like him, look like him and there is no reason a camera would be swinging around for 4 minutes like that.


Yeah, now that I pay the slightest bit of attention it's clearly fake. My bad. Skimming is often deleterious to the details.
   2965. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:00 PM (#4352777)
Another hint was that is the only video uploaded by the user. That's always a giveaway.
   2966. starving to death with a full STEAGLES Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:03 PM (#4352785)
just a few more early thoughts on the draft:

3 QBs are going to go in the first round. smith (west virginia) will be the first off the board, barkley (USC) will also find his way into the top half of the round, and ryan nassib (syracuse) will slip into bottom half.

lane johnson (OT, oklahoma) will find his way into the first round, and quite possibly all the way into the top 10.

also, since i'm a huge sucker for a good tight end, my #1 is zach ertz (stanford), and my other favorites are dion sims (michigan state), joseph fauria (UCLA), and travis kelce (cincinnati).

with the eagles picking at #4 overall, what i see are 2 (more or less) elite players at premium positions (luke joeckel and jarvis jones). i also see another elite player at a non-premium position (chance warmack), and 3 other guys who are quality players at premium positions, but just not elite (dee millner, bjoern werner, and geno smith).

and with the eagles potentially having 2 or more picks in the 20-50 range, my favorite prospects likely to go in that area include johnson, ertz, ezekial ansah (DE, BYU), xavier rhodes (CB, florida state), bacarri rambo (S, georgia), khaseem greene (LB, rutgers), margus hunt (DE, SMU), kyle long (OT, oregon), xavier nixon (OL, florida) and logan ryan (CB, rutgers).

some of the more interest later round talent that i have an eye on include arthur brown (LB, kansas state), jamie collins (LB, southern miss), brian winters (OL, kent state), brian schwenke (OL, cal), william gholston (DL, michigan state), devin taylor (DE, south carolina), devonte holloman (LB, south carolina), dj swearinger (S, south carolina), dwayne gratz (CB, uconn), mike gillislee (RB, florida), and jordan mills (OL, louisianna tech).


   2967. Every Inge Counts Posted: January 22, 2013 at 04:39 PM (#4352836)
I think Jarvis Jones is going to end up dropping in this draft. The spine issue has shortened NFL player's careers and I don't see him going in the top 10 as of right now.
   2968. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: January 22, 2013 at 06:45 PM (#4352972)
Tim Brown: There were many issues with Callahan when I played in Oakland.

While there were many factors with the Raiders losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, I dont think the coach intentionally trying to lose was one of them.
   2969. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 07:21 PM (#4352984)
Facing the exact same offense as they play, the Raiders didn't change their audibles. Tampa Bay knew them all. I whole heartedly endorse Bill Callahan as the Cowboys play caller.
   2970. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 07:58 PM (#4352999)
3 QBs are going to go in the first round. smith (west virginia) will be the first off the board, barkley (USC) will also find his way into the top half of the round, and ryan nassib (syracuse) will slip into bottom half.


Some columnist (I think for Fox Sports &/or Sporting News), about a month ago, project Arkansas' Tyler Wilson as the first QB chosen, around the 10th pick. As a Razorback fan, I found that intriguing, but by no means convincing.
   2971. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2013 at 08:55 PM (#4353016)
I am guessing that "ANY/P+" is adjusted net yards/pass (attempt?)? Where'd you get the numbers from? Is this like what pro-football-reference uses?

ANY/A - adjusted net yards per passing attempt: (pass yards + 20*(pass TD) - 45*(interceptions thrown) - sack yards)/(passing attempts + sacks)
.

Yes, the + just normalizes for season (like OPS+ or ERA+) It's also from pro-football reference.
The ?ep is from http://advancedfootballstats.com/

Sometimes I look at both ANY/A and NY/A if I because the first has sacks in it. Sacks are (in my understanding) like 1/3 OL and 1/3 QB and 1/3 scheme.

And yes DA I am very familiar with FOs stats I look them weekly during the season. DVOA doesn't go back as far as "regular" stats, is not era adjusted, and I find that ANY/A is an adequate proxy. I also use EPA (EPA/P) and sometimes WPA from advancedfootballstats. Another useful check is the SR% (success rate) from afs becuase it's what gets mushed into DVOA. All of these measures correlate very strongly.

And Ray, QB Rating is the RBI of football stats. ESPN's total QBR is the "Total Average" of baseball stats. With the additional minus that it's proprietary.
   2972. Squash Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:29 PM (#4353031)
As a 49ers fan I'm interested to see what they do with Alex Smith this offseason. He's in kind of an uncommon situation, a proven starting NFL QB in his theoretical prime who had good numbers this year, on a pretty good contract for the next two years (he's entering year 2 of a 3/21), yet clearly the #2 on his team - I was wondering with a friend what kind of pick they could get for him for 2013. A 4th-rounder? A 3rd-rounder maybe? Or do they hold onto him as injury insurance? I don't think he would be very happy with that, but who knows?
   2973. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:38 PM (#4353033)
Tim Brown: There were many issues with Callahan when I played in Oakland.

While there were many factors with the Raiders losing to the Buccaneers in the Super Bowl, I dont think the coach intentionally trying to lose was one of them.


I probably loathe Billy C as much as anyone on this board, for reasons that have nothing to do with his time in Oakland, but this is quite the stretch. Tim Brown also has an ax to grind with the way Billy C reduced his role at WR.
   2974. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:50 PM (#4353035)
Bill Simmons (I know, I know) speculated that the reason Tim Brown came out with this info now is to throw the coverage off of Teo.
   2975. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 09:56 PM (#4353039)
Bill Simmons (I know, I know) speculated that the reason Tim Brown came out with this info now is to throw the coverage off of Teo.


Well, it's like my grand pappy always said: \"#### Catholics!" (Pappy wasn't known for his PC notions of plurality in the modern world, you see.)
   2976. Howie Menckel Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:00 PM (#4353041)

I think you shoot for a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith, not sure if you get it but there are teams with bad QBs, as usual, to where he's a real upgrade.

   2977. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:08 PM (#4353042)
You'd think KC would be interested in Alex Smith?
   2978. Squash Posted: January 22, 2013 at 10:25 PM (#4353049)
Wow, I just read Brown's comments. They sound like lunacy. We all have a best friend, but if you were up against him in the Super Bowl would you ever throw it so he could win? I think the idea is interesting that Callahan knew Robbins was skating on thin ice and tried to make some adjustments accounting for that.

I think you shoot for a 2nd rounder for Alex Smith, not sure if you get it but there are teams with bad QBs, as usual, to where he's a real upgrade.

I had that thought too. I think you ask for it, expect you don't get it, settle for a 3rd.
   2979. Every Inge Counts Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:06 PM (#4353066)
Jerry Rice agrees with Tim Brown

"In a way, maybe because he didn't like the Raiders, he decided to, 'Hey look, maybe we should sabotage a little bit and let Jon Gruden go out and win this one,' " Rice said.
   2980. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:14 PM (#4353069)
The Broncos got a 4th and 6th round pick for Tebow and a 7th rounder so it seems that Tebow was worth about a 4th round pick. You'd think that Alex Smith should net more than Tim Tebow.

I do hope they trade him to the AFC because if he simply gets released, I think he could make a team like Arizona a lot scarier. Smith isn't a savior but you can win with him if he's got some talent surrounding him.
   2981. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:15 PM (#4353072)
I think with the Raiders players saying that Callahan sabotaged the team is that they were probably pissed that the Raiders let Gruden go so easily and knew that Callahan was a clear downgrade. Basically, blame Al Davis for thinking he knew better.
   2982. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:20 PM (#4353074)
Bill Simmons (I know, I know) speculated that the reason Tim Brown came out with this info now is to throw the coverage off of Teo.


And the Cowboys timed their announcement of Callahan as their play caller why?
   2983. Tripon Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:36 PM (#4353077)
Jerry Jones is a bad GM and should fire himself?
   2984. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:41 PM (#4353078)
Jerry Jones is a bad GM and should fire himself?


That's a given, although I have no desire to see that. I'm saying, in the "Notre Dame alum distracts from Notre Dame story" theory there is no explanation for why the thing that prompted Brown's remarks. Or reason for Rice to defend him. But keep on that theory Bill Simmons.
   2985. zenbitz Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:45 PM (#4353080)
I post this at least once a week on various sites. The niners have no leverage to hold on to Smith. They can't afford to keep $8M in salary cap for a backup QB. They have until March to trade or release him. The other teams that need QBs know this. They can wait until he gets released.

He's a literal upgrade for 10-15 teams but most of them the upgrade is very marginal and while he has a "fair" contract it's not super cheap. Plus on a bunch of those teams he'd just be a stop gap for the upside of a couple of 7-9 seasons while they restock (Philly, KC, Jax, Tennesee). And some of THOSE teams have a first or second year QB they presumably like.

What team actually has good enough non-QB personnel to give up a draft pick for Alex Smith? Cardinals for sure. Jets I guess. Dolphins? I think teams like Minnesota or Tampa Bay will take their chances with their young guys. Buffalo?

KC probably takes Geno Smith. It's theoretically possible that Chip Kelly prefers Smith to Foley, but he's got time to turn that team around.

I guess the Tebow and Carson Palmer overpays do happen, but I can't predict that level of irrational exuberance for the "Solid but unexciting Smith".

Are there any teams that someone thinks had a strongly underperforming defense and no QB?

My prediction is a 5th rounder.
   2986. DA Baracus Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:50 PM (#4353081)
I don't see the Chiefs taking on another veteran QB. They will draft someone, probably in the 2nd round, and try to develop him. It's one reason why they hired Reid. Cardinals also hired a supposed QB developer in Arians, so they probably won't trade for a veteran either, but who knows with that franchise.

Don't forget, Matt Flynn will be on the market too.
   2987. JJ1986 Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:53 PM (#4353082)
Jets are in cap hell and probably can't afford him.
   2988. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 22, 2013 at 11:59 PM (#4353086)
What team actually had a good enough non-QB team to give up a draft pick for Alex Smith? Cardinals for sure. Jets I guess. Dolphins? I think teams like Minnesota or Tampa Bay will take their chances with their young guys. Buffalo?

I don't think the Dolphins would want to trade for Smith. Tannehill did not have that bad of a season considering the lack of playmakers the Dolphins have at WR.

I think Cleveland would be one team that would possibly be a good fit. Buffalo might be as well but they gave Fitzpatrick a huge extension just last year. I don't know whether they have the financial flexibility to cut him.
   2989. thok Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:16 AM (#4353090)
I think he could make a team like Arizona a lot scarier.


Unless Alex Smith is playing offensive line for Arizona, he's not that much of an upgrade. I feel like KC is a better fit for him with Andy Reid's offense (and there's a long tradition of SF QB's going to KC.)

Pittsburgh might be an option if Alex is ready to be a backup; I think Roethlisberger is likely to consistently miss 3-4 games per season over the next few years and Alex Smith would be an upgrade over Batch/Leftwich/whatever. San Diego's also a possibility if they decide to dump Rivers as part of their house-cleaning (which they shouldn't do, but I could see it happening.)
   2990. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:21 AM (#4353091)
Pittsburgh might be an option if Alex is ready to be a backup; I think Roethlisberger is likely to consistently miss 3-4 games per season over the next few years and Alex Smith would be an upgrade over Batch/Leftwich/whatever.

Smith absolutely is not ready to back up. There's no chance he ends up in Pittsburgh. He'd never go to a team with an established franchise QB and the Steelers would never trade for a backup that makes that much money.

I do agree that KC makes sense.
   2991. DA Baracus Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:22 AM (#4353092)
Pittsburgh is in cap hell too, they can't afford him either.
   2992. Squash Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:29 AM (#4353095)
I post this at least once a week on various sites. The niners have no leverage to hold on to Smith. They can't afford to keep $8M in salary cap for a backup QB. They have until March to trade or release him. The other teams that need QBs know this. They can wait until he gets released.

The 49ers leverage is that once he's released you're in a war with the other teams that need QBs. Whereas if you make a deal for him he's yours, and at a reasonable contract.

Don't forget, Matt Flynn will be on the market too.

For the same price (in terms of contract/cap number). Yet Smith has actually performed. I don't think Smith will fetch a ton (relatively, for a starting QB), but it will be more than a 5th round pick. I think you ask for a 2nd, hope for a 3rd, be willing to take a 4th, particularly if it's from a crappy team and will be high in the 4th round.
   2993. Every Inge Counts Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:31 AM (#4353096)
Matt Moore is going to be on the market as well...
   2994. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:32 AM (#4353097)
Wow, I just read Brown's comments. They sound like lunacy.
Raider Nation cannot fail, it can only be failed.
   2995. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: January 23, 2013 at 12:38 AM (#4353099)
Mike Vick is likely to be on the market as well but it seems that he is looking for a pretty big salary. Not sure that he'll get it.
   2996. Squash Posted: January 23, 2013 at 01:13 AM (#4353106)
Smith absolutely is not ready to back up. There's no chance he ends up in Pittsburgh.

Yeah Smith isn't going to Pittsburgh (not by choice at least). The candidates right now look like KC, Cleveland, and Buffalo, as the 49ers probably won't trade Smith to the Cardinals. Either way the value of marginal to decent upgrades (which Smith would be for a lot of teams) shouldn't be overlooked in the NFL - there's a lot of value in sneaking into the playoffs, even to just get blown out by the 1st or 2nd seed. Teams on the bubble will make moves to sneak in at 9-7, even while they're developing their young guy.
   2997. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: January 23, 2013 at 01:18 AM (#4353107)
I will side with brown and rice over romonowskis crazy ass
   2998. thok Posted: January 23, 2013 at 07:52 AM (#4353138)
Smith absolutely is not ready to back up.


Alex better get ready to back up, because he might not get a choice about it (unless he runs to Canada). The recent influx of young QB's in the draft has significantly improved the replacement level.
   2999. Howie Menckel Posted: January 23, 2013 at 08:18 AM (#4353143)

"The 49ers leverage is that once he's released you're in a war with the other teams that need QBs."

right, if 2 teams want him, that gives the 49ers some leverage. If not, ok they're in a bind. But it's silly to say that any team can just wait til he's released, unless you assume that is the only team that wants him.
   3000. Bitter Mouse Posted: January 23, 2013 at 08:36 AM (#4353146)
What team actually has good enough non-QB personnel to give up a draft pick for Alex Smith? Cardinals for sure. Jets I guess. Dolphins? I think teams like Minnesota or Tampa Bay will take their chances with their young guys. Buffalo?


Ponder is ... um ... not very good (flashes of pretty good occasionally I admit). He might turn into something, but I can see MN sending a draft pick to get Smith (3rd or 4th, but not much more).
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