User Comments, Suggestions, or Complaints | Privacy Policy | Terms of Service | Advertising
|
Demarini, Easton and TPX Baseball Bats
|
AllianceTickets.com has cheap MLB Tickets. Get all your Colorado Rockies Tickets, Seattle Mariners Tickets, San Francisco Giants Tickets and all your favorite baseball tickets here. We also carry cheap Denver Broncos Tickets, Seattle Seahawks Tickets and Denver Nuggets Tickets. |
For wholesale prices on baseball gifts and equipment, check these stores out! |
Page rendered in 0.7008 seconds
51 querie(s) executed
Reader Comments and Retorts
Go to end of page
Statements posted here are those of our readers and do not represent the BaseballThinkFactory. Names are provided by the poster and are not verified. We ask that posters follow our submission policy. Please report any inappropriate comments.
Not really. The 3 SB wins are banked, and Brady takes a back seat only to Montana in that department. Meanwhile, since 2005 he's gone 85-24 in the regular season (.780, including a 16-0 year), 7-6 in the playoffs, has made 2 SBs, and has a 101.9 QB rating over that span.
That's supposed to hurt him?
Do you disagree that Brady had a substantially better coaching staff and teammates over his career than Manning did?
I mean, if you put Tom Brady (and his entire offensive squad) on the Oakland Raiders, and he goes from a +170 point differential to a +30 point differential, and probably doesn't have a 9-3 record this year.
My point was that people have been arguing Manning/Brady since at least 2004, not about a change in the argument since then.
so, my money is still on cancellation.
Before those guys, I actually preferred Elway, based on what he accomplished with what I thought was rather pedestrian talent around him (until he got Davis, and promptly won two SBs). I think Marino was in a similar situation, though he also didn't really win anything with the Fins. Montana had some obvious personnel advantages (Rice, Taylor, Clark, Craig, that defense), and a scheme that suited him.
It's even worse than that. A bad defense limits opportunities for the offense to score by giving up lots of TOP and by giving the offense poor field position (which not only affects scoring, but the ability to take chances on offense).
Of course, it cuts both ways, as the offense also gives the defense a rest and puts the defense in a good position with respect to field position.
It's all intertwined, which is why football is such a tough sport to analyze with respect to individual player contributions.
A QB's W/L record matters, so long as the coach puts the game on the QB's shoulders? Okay, but the W/L record has both those games and the games where the coach didn't.
Oakland time of possession (2012): 28:49
So it's an average of 2m6s difference between them this season.
The worst offense in the league (Arizona) has the ball for 29:55.
Matt Cassell had a much better team around him and a HOF coach.
Nonsense. Favre found himself on defense quite often.
That's the point. So did Tom Brady.
The comparison of the Colts had the #1 pick and the Patriots went 11-5 only confirms Manning is better if you already think Manning is better. Put it another way and they look pretty similar: the year before their injuries Brady went 18-1 and Manning went 10-7. Then their teams went 11-5 and 2-14, a drop of 7 and 8 wins respectively.
If you switched QBs the same thing would have happened.
Primey.
I know Ray's stance on this, but I do think the rest of the team matters. Maybe not as much as the MSM thinks, but I've seen what happens with (for example) a terrible OL. It affects both the running game and passing game. I just don't think it's that easy to isolate QB performance.
And then we have to agree on what aspect of the performance we're discussing. I don't think Tom Brady is the best pure passer ever, or even the best pure passer playing today. Heck, I think Favre had a better arm in his prime, but Brady is a much smarter QB who makes MUCH better decisions, and I think that's a big part of his success.
Brady had a better head coach, yes, perhaps the greatest head coach ever - because he identified a great quarterback and let his great quarterback do his thing.
I think that's the salient point. So in that sense, yes, Manning was at a disadvantage. The quality of the rest of the coaching staffs and their teammates are, in my view, virtually irrelevant.
When you look at the losses, rather than the wins, the change isn't as similar. Moreover, both of those marks were outliers (the Colts' 10-6 on the low side of Manning's tenure - the Pats' 15-1 on the high side of Brady's). Upon his return, Brady took the Pats to the same mark Cassel had.
Of course, the Colts' Luck-fueled 2012 campaign thus far doesn't bolster my case, though a closer look shows that the current crop o' Colts is very much living the charmed life (the beneficiary of a downtrodden AFC and an Orioles-like defiance of Pythag).
They won 2 of their final 3 games. They didn't need to try to lose.
That's what I'm disputing. I don't think he does. I think he goes +170 or +150 and 9-3 or 8-4 on the Raiders. (With Belichicken.) Within range of what he's doing now. I think 90% of a team's success or lack thereof is due to the QB and the offensive gameplan directed by the HC.
I think this because the elite QBs win, and always win, even when their teams are changing all around them.
Oh I freely admit that. And you're right, we're comparing the year after one of Manning's weakest teams and the year after Brady's best team, which is also not a fair comparison. But then I don't care which one was "better"--to me they're equally great. I'm just saying that there are many ways to look at it.
And yeah, the current Colts team are the biggest paper tigers we've seen in years. Every win has been by a TD or less, and other than the Packers none of them are impressive. But as a neutral fan, so what? They've had some fun games to watch.
How does your philosophy jive with a team like the Ravens who win every year despite horrible offensive playcalling and a mediocre QB?
John Elway had a stretch mid-career where his team went 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 8-8. Brett Favre had a 4-12 season. Marino's teams missed the playoffs about as often as they made them.
Manning was his own coach for most of his tenure in Indy, calling his own plays. So I don't see how he was held back by Indy's coaching staff.
Wait, what?
If he's +170 with the Patriots (who have allowed 260 points), you think he'd be +150 with the Raiders (who have allowed 402 points)? You think he'd score MORE points (from 430 to 552) because he switches over to the Raiders?
If we like QB wins, this is what makes Manning so damn impressive. Since his rookie season (3-13), the Colts had only one season where he won less than 10 games (6-10 in 2001). He had a run of 7 consecutive seasons where he never won less than 12 games (2003-2009).
I don't necessarily agree that he would be +150 with the Raiders, but it their offense was better, it would make things easier for their defense, so he presumably wouldn't have to get them to 552 to be +150.
No, I think the Raiders would allow fewer points with him. Fewer INTs, better QB decisions and results, leading to worse field position for the opposing team when Brady turns the ball over on downs.
Unlike with baseball which has discrete half innings and you can't score while playing defense, points scored/allowed, i.e., offense and defense in football, are linked.
Oh, as a Colts fan*, I'm loving it. I'm just not pretending that this is a good team that's 8-4 team.
* A fact that in no way has colored my opinion on the subject of Manning v. Brady. (-:
You can think my analysis is totally off base - fine. But who would your top 7-10 be? Use your own ranking system and base it on your own factors. But I'm really interested in seeing other peoples' lists.
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Montana
4. Marino
I'm not a big Elway fan, but he probably goes next because he played so much more than Young. I'd have Favre below Drew Brees.
Brady, Elway, Favre, Manning, Marino, Montana and Young.
2. Brady
3. Elway
4. Montana
5. Marino
Montana and Marino are close. There are good-sized gaps between 2 and 3 and 5 and whoever 6 might be.
Oh, and to continue on down the list.
43. (tie: Dave Krieg, Troy Aikman)
Enjoy the ride. You've got Luck so no worries about how winning is just hurting the draft position (as an Eagles fan this is the reality I face). Eleven draft spots isn't a big deal when you've already got the cornerstone.
That's insulting. To Dave Kreig.
Montana
Young
Brady
Manning
Marino
Elway
Moon
Favre
Below that it gets hard to separate, in the next tier would be Aikman, Kelly, Fouts, Brees (to date).
Edit: Marino definitely over Favre: Marino is top three, possibly tops overall, Favre is down the list.
Andrei Markov is playing in this game for Vityaz, can't imagine he's too happy about being locked out for his 30 healthy games this year.
Tier One: Manning, Brady, Montana
Tier Two: Young, Favre, Marino
Tier Three: Elway, Rodgers, Kurt Warner
Elway I think is hugely overrated. Here's how much better Manning is than Elway: Manning broke the Broncos' single-season passing TD record last Sunday, in his 12th game with the franchise.
Kurt Warner was as good as any of them. Talk about how elite QBs can win anywhere - he took the freakin' Cardinals to the Super Bowl. But of course, his career was very short.
Don't you live in Colorado? You must have fun with that one. Broncos fans are convinced he's hugely underrated, citing Reeves' conservative sets and a poor receiver group until he was older. Then there are those who just point to all the 4th quarter comebacks and throw everything else out the window.
2. Brady
3. Montana
4. Marino
5. Elway
I'm glad I'm not the only one. I thought about putting Warner on there, but six great years isn't enough. He's firmly in the second tier for me.
But they played in different eras and the NFL is such a pass heavy league now. When Elway played 22 TDs a year was pretty good, a bottom of the top 10 number. Now it's barely top 15.
Manning had 447 attempts heading into last night, Elway in 1997 had 502; Elway averaged 496 attempts a season, Manning 557. It's not at all surprising he has more TDs. Plus the Broncos ran the ball more at the end of Elway's career than they do now, especially in the red zone. Terrell Davis led the league in TDs in 97 and 98, and they were 6th and 2nd in attempts, compared to the 2012 Broncos who are 11th in attempts and 20th in TDs.
(Like OPS+, but based on TD% of passes attempted, 100 is league average)
Game Adva Rk Player From To GS TD%+ 1 Steve Young* 1985 1999 143 120 2 Tom Brady 2000 2012 171 118 3 Peyton Manning 1998 2012 221 118 4 Len Dawson* 1957 1975 159 115 5 Terry Bradshaw* 1970 1983 158 114 6 Brett Favre 1991 2010 298 113 7 Drew Brees 2001 2012 165 112 8 Bob Griese* 1967 1980 151 112 9 Jim Kelly* 1986 1996 160 112 10 Dan Marino* 1983 1999 240 112 11 Philip Rivers 2004 2012 108 112 12 Kurt Warner 1998 2009 116 112 13 Steve Grogan 1975 1990 135 111 14 Joe Montana* 1979 1994 164 111 15 Roger Staubach* 1969 1979 114 111 16 Otto Graham* 1946 1955 114 110 17 Dave Krieg 1980 1998 175 110 18 Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012 122 110 19 Randall Cunningham 1985 2001 135 109 20 Boomer Esiason 1984 1997 173 109* HOF
Game Pass Rk Player From To GS Rate+ 1 Otto Graham* 1946 1955 114 127 2 Steve Young* 1985 1999 143 126 3 Joe Montana* 1979 1994 164 123 4 Roger Staubach* 1969 1979 114 121 5 Len Dawson* 1957 1975 159 120 6 Tom Brady 2000 2012 171 119 7 Peyton Manning 1998 2012 221 119 8 Kurt Warner 1998 2009 116 117 9 Ken Anderson 1971 1986 172 115 10 Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974 149 115 11 Drew Brees 2001 2012 165 114 12 Fran Tarkenton* 1961 1978 239 114 13 Norm Van Brocklin* 1949 1960 101 114 14 Bob Griese* 1967 1980 151 113 15 Dan Marino* 1983 1999 240 113 16 Philip Rivers 2004 2012 108 113 17 Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012 122 113 18 Bart Starr* 1956 1971 158 113 19 Dan Fouts* 1973 1987 171 112 20 Y.A. Tittle* 1948 1964 154 112Though at the same time, Elway was a "big game choker" like Manning was, until he won a Super Bowl, and then all of a sudden he wasn't.
And on the gripping hand, the helicopter-spin-for-a-first-down in his first Super Bowl win applied Elway's scrappiness to that winner narrative.
They loved Steve Watson and Vance Johnson at the time, didn't they? It's only once they realized Elway's stats aren't that impressive that they started whining about his receivers.
Elway never even led the league in TD passes for a season. He finished (a distant) second once, fourth twice. In his biggest TD year, he still threw two fewer than Jeff George.
If individual players are harder to measure, you should be more critical of results, especially team results, than less critical. Isn't that the classic fallacy that leads to pitcher wins, goalie wins and super bowl titles being judged above all else?
Sticking to Manning vs. Brady, if you just watch each play it seems obvious to me that Manning's success is more related to his skills than Brady's is. The big moments of Patriots games feature many players rising to greatness. The big moments of Colts game feature mostly Manning doing so. You routinely see him take over a game in a way that Brady doesn't. Manning's ability to read the set is absolutely unprecedented in my mind.
Broncos fans might have loved them, but they were the only ones. I honestly think the talent around Elway for most of his career was crap, unlike a certain multi-ringed QB who most folks rank above him.
And unlike with Peyton, there's no fanboyism involved with my ranking of that horsefaced jackass.
4th quarter comebacks to me are more of a negative than a positive. Because it tells me that in too many games, you had your team down in the 4th quarter. (Eli.)
Brady/Manning/Montana had nothing to come back from, leading the game the vast majority of the time.
I mean, Eli certainly can handle a 4th quarter comeback drive, but so can the others. Eli is just there more often than them, so he gets noticed more.
Football is more than just stats, particularly just one stat. Highlighted by Jeff George throwing more TDs than John Elway. Although, that said, his stats across the table were pretty unimpressive for a top tier HOFer. And don't forget he had some value as a runner, over 3000 rushing yards.
I have not seen it mentioned, but the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since Spygate. Does that take off some of the shine of Brady and Belichik?
Yeah. I'm not saying he wasn't a great player, because he clearly was. But it's awfully hard to argue that Elway belongs in the discussion for greatest QB of all time, once you start looking at his stats.
To make a baseball analogy, in the ranks of the greatest right fielders of all time, Elway would be a lot closer to Roberto Clemente than he would be to Hank Aaron, not to mention Babe Ruth. But there's no shame in being Roberto Clemente.
No. If David Tyree doesn't make that miraculous catch or maybe if Wes Welker's hands didn't turn into frying pans they win a couple more Super Bowls. Spygate wasn't the reason they lost two Super Bowls to the luckiest team ever.
No.
Yeah, and even their "spygate-fueled" SB wins were by 3 points or whatever.
FBRef's Approximate Career Weighted Value (which tries to rank all players) puts him well below Favre, a little behind Marino, a hair above Young and well above Montana (AV is not a big fan of Joe) on the all-time leaderboard. Peyton, of course, is first. Brady's already shot past Montana, and may eventually get to No. 2 on the list.
Meh. That has Fran Tarkenton the 7th greatest player ever, 3rd greatest QB ever. Tarkenton was great, but he wasn't that great.
1. Manning
2. Montana
3. Brady
4. Marino
5. Elway
6. Young
7. Favre
And. [386] re the Niners:
Are you confounding the 1st and 2nd rams games? I think they missed maybe 3-4 tackles in the 2nd. Jackson was 21 for 48 yards with 1 9 yard run... unless he was breaking a lot of tackles 4 yards behind the LOS (he probably did break a couple).
Possibly. When I originally wrote the post I said something about more broken tackles in the two Rams games together than the rest of the season but deleted it for tortured syntax and to preserve my angry hyperbole.
I still think you're understating the case in just the 2nd Rams game though. It wasn't just Jackson - but I'd venture to guess half his yards gained DID come after contact.
I don't think this is fair either. I think they often call 2 runs in the huddle with the roll/kill call. Although I agree in GENERAL that they were either horribly misreading STL defense at the line, vastly optimistic about their OL, or tipping plays.
You're 100% right there, zenbitz. We don't know what CK was 'kill'ing OUT of, just that every time he did it - whatever the cause - the results were poor.
i know all of the issues with favre. i also know that in the 90's he had some amazing seasons. and then after breaking the thumb in 99 and not being able to properly grip the ball especially in cold weather he still had the ability to be really good. and in the last five years he was death to teams that blitzed him.
i freely state my bias but the notion that elway was better than favre is just silly to me.
Possibly the most incorrect thing you've ever said on BBTF. Serious - a QB needs guys to block for him, guys to throw to, and a running game and defense to keep the pressure off.
The stat, I think you want to look at is ANY/A+ and AY/A+ (Net includes sacks, which are "somewhat" the QBs fault). +, as you all know, means adjusted for era.
Maddeningly, the leaders list is NOT available from pro-football-reference.com. So this is a MANUAL compilation, there may be people left off.
But the obvious leaders:
Young 122/125 (~4100 attempts)Rodgers 122/126 (~2500 attempts)
Staubach 121/123 (~3000 attempts)
P.Manning 120/116 (~7700 attempts)
Montana 121/118 (~5400 attempts)
Brady 119/117 (~5800 attempts)
Warner 116/116 (~4000 attempts)
Marino 119/112 (~8358 attempts)
Fouts 117/114 (~5600 attempts)
<gap>
Favre 108/106 (>10000 attempts)
Elway 106/106 (7250 attempts)
(Eli Manning zone)
Older guys don't have sack numbers, but I didn't see anyone leap out on the AY/A lists.
Peyton -- barring a decline phase -- I think is probably the GOAT. I grew up watching Montana and Young, and Peyton "seems" better. Brady hasn't passed Montana yet, but he might on value - as might Aaron Rodgers. Biggest surprise for me on this list was Roger Staubach, but hey, anti-cowboy bias. I was going to add Aikman, but his PFBR page is messed up and doesn't have career totals!
You can still use the Play Index to compile the lists.
ANY/A+ (Minimum 100 starts)
Game Rk Player From To GS ANY/A+ 1 Steve Young* 1985 1999 143 123 2 Joe Montana* 1979 1994 164 121 3 Peyton Manning 1998 2012 221 120 4 Roger Staubach* 1969 1979 114 120 5 Tom Brady 2000 2012 171 119 6 Dan Marino* 1983 1999 240 119 7 Dan Fouts* 1973 1987 171 117 8 Babe Parilli 1952 1969 101 116 9 Kurt Warner 1998 2009 116 116 10 Drew Brees 2001 2012 165 114 11 Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974 149 114 12 Philip Rivers 2004 2012 108 114 13 Ken Anderson 1971 1986 172 113 14 John Brodie 1957 1973 159 113 15 Jeff Garcia 1999 2011 116 112 16 Trent Green 1997 2008 113 112 17 Fran Tarkenton* 1961 1978 239 112 18 Billy Kilmer 1961 1978 124 111 19 Bob Griese* 1967 1980 151 110 20 Earl Morrall 1956 1976 102 110AY/A+ (Minimum 100 starts)
Game Rk Player From To GS AY/A+ 1 Otto Graham* 1946 1955 114 129 2 Steve Young* 1985 1999 143 125 3 Roger Staubach* 1969 1979 114 122 4 Joe Montana* 1979 1994 164 118 5 Tom Brady 2000 2012 171 117 6 Len Dawson* 1957 1975 159 116 7 Peyton Manning 1998 2012 221 116 8 Kurt Warner 1998 2009 116 116 9 Philip Rivers 2004 2012 108 115 10 Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012 122 115 11 Norm Van Brocklin* 1949 1960 101 114 12 Ken Anderson 1971 1986 172 113 13 Dan Fouts* 1973 1987 171 113 14 Trent Green 1997 2008 113 112 15 Dan Marino* 1983 1999 240 112 16 Bart Starr* 1956 1971 158 112 17 Bob Griese* 1967 1980 151 111 18 Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974 149 111 19 Earl Morrall 1956 1976 102 111 20 Johnny Unitas* 1956 1973 186 111I'll freely admit I've been underrating him. Hell, I didn't realize his career was as long as it was. With his foray in the USFL, the misfire in Tampa and then the backup to Montana gig, I figured his career as a starter was similar in length to Kurt Warner's, but it was a good two-plus seasons longer.
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1138101/index.htm
And I think other than truly elite players all players are basically the same. I think once you make it to the NFL there's very little separation amongst the vast majority of players.
Think of it like buying a car. You can spend $15,000 or you can spend $55,000. Both cars are getting you from New York to Boston the vast, vast majority of the time.
The exceptions prove the rule, because there are so few of them. Favre's 4-12 was an "expected" 7-9 per point differential. Not so bad. Elway's worst stretch was .500? Sign me up.
And I'm with Harvey on Favre; I didn't expect to be so impressed by Favre when I looked at his stats today.
An odd claim... what you are saying in essence is that all teams have an average defense. I'll even grant (for now) the implicit statement that all differences on offense are due to the QB.
The KC Chiefs went from 10-6 under Dave Kreig to 11-5 under Joe Montana
The Vikings went from 10-6 under Gus Ferrotte to 12-4 under Brett Favre
Not sure Ferrotte and Kreig are 2nd tier, even though they have playoff caliber teams.
The Broncos under Peyton Manning are likely to improve by 4 games or so. Keeping in mind that their QB was awful.
But EVEN THEN we know that w/l record in 16 games (let alone 2-4 game playoff tournaments) are not anywhere near 100% reflective of team quality. Close games have essentially random outcomes.
Good quarterbacking is obviously correlated with winning. But the causation arrow is a little harder to unravel.
Steve Young was horrible with the 2-12 Bucs. Did he just learn to quarterback on the Niners bench for 4 years? Probably a little.
But all these guys had good teams around them. Archie Manning has stoutly average passing numbers. His teams went 35-101-3.
the 1978 packers were at 7-2 and went 1-5-1 as a finish
And just like that, the defending champion Giants are looking at 3rd place in the NFC East if they lose to the Saints here. no pressure.
If all three teams are tied entering Week 17, the Giants are eliminated from the division and the Cowboys will play the Redskins for the division title that day.
Of course, the Giants could get a 10-6 or 9-7 wild card (or run the table incl today and go 11-5 to close out the upstarts...
His skirt got ruffled but he will be OK.
Wiz has to go.
they won a meaningless game on the same day they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and by beating tampa bay, they simultaneously improved the playoff positioning of their divisional rivals while also hurting their own positioning when it comes to the draft.
####.
there is a fellow alum of mine who was an insufferable eagles fan in the good patch of the aughts telling everyone that the eagles had it all figured out, managed the cap better than anyone, found players better than anyone, etc, etc, etc
now he won't respond to emails, texts or anything. folks aren't even razzing him. just want to talk football. it's pretty pathetic.
most teams look pretty good when their quarterback isn't missing anything
well, that might be but then one would think his wife would mention it when she speaks to my wife
but maybe not
I'll always talk football. Particularly older stuff. Can't get enough of it.
Your friend wasn't entirely wrong. Early in Reid's tenure they did manage the cap better than anyone and were as good as anyone other than Pittsburgh and Baltimore in finding depth players and replacing departed players with ease. (For example every year of Reid's tenure they had a different trio of mediocre starting linebackers but while Jim Johnson was alive the defense rarely skipped a beat.) But then the league caught up quickly while the Eagles stood still, in part because they mimicked the Eagles cap management. In the past few years the front office has been completely isolated, when someone would leave to go to another team, they always promote from within. No new ideas, no outside perspectives, no fresh takes on anything; that's the quickest way to get left behind. The Eagles were never better than an average drafting team in the past, but Roseman is a poor drafter (well, poor at everything) and it's killing them. I have absolutely no confidence in him. The next few years are going to suck.
Easily the most underachieving team this season. Lost three straight games when having the lead with 2 minutes to go (2nd team ever to do so). Have outgained opponents by 750 yards. Lost one game by 3 points allowing 3 non-offensive TDs. Another game by 7 points allowing 2 non-offensive TDs. And in this game dominating the Packers and a crazy fumble led to the Packers getting back into the game. Just a crap season.
Oh forgot the Bears game they lost where they fumbled twice in the redzone, including once on the goal line in a game they lost by 6 points (not even counting the muff punt that gave the Bears an easy 3 points).
Is Wisenhunt to blame for the Cardinals having no QB?
He's a big part of it. He has a lot of input on roster management, and decides who starts. Remember, Kolb wasn't his starting at the beginning of the season, it was Skelton. After Kolb went down, it was clear that whomever Wisenhunt put in was not going to be good, which is the head coach fault for not preparing them. Especially Skelton, who was again, the starter at day one.
You must be Registered and Logged In to post comments.
<< Back to main