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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

OT: NFL/NHL thread

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:03 AM | 7937 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, nhl

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   401. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4319431)
You must have missed the last 7-8 years of this argument.


Not really. The 3 SB wins are banked, and Brady takes a back seat only to Montana in that department. Meanwhile, since 2005 he's gone 85-24 in the regular season (.780, including a 16-0 year), 7-6 in the playoffs, has made 2 SBs, and has a 101.9 QB rating over that span.

That's supposed to hurt him?


   402. JJ1986 Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4319433)
Different sport, different (and worse) ways to measure player effectiveness (because you don't have the individual pitcher/batter and fielder/ball matchups that you have in baseball), etc. I've said before that I really _do_ think an NFL quarterback wins and loses games all by himself, as long as the head coach lets him open up the field and do his thing, throw vertically, throw long, throw early and often, etc.

So that's why I'm more than ok with it.


Do you disagree that Brady had a substantially better coaching staff and teammates over his career than Manning did?
   403. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4319434)
But isn't the argument against pitcher "wins" (doesn't control his team's offense) even MORE applicable to the QB (he doesn't control his team's defense), since at least a pitcher MIGHT have an AB (NL team), while a QB will NEVER play a defensive role?

I mean, if you put Tom Brady (and his entire offensive squad) on the Oakland Raiders, and he goes from a +170 point differential to a +30 point differential, and probably doesn't have a 9-3 record this year.
   404. JJ1986 Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:47 PM (#4319436)
Not really. The 3 SB wins are banked, and Brady takes a back seat only to Montana in that department. Meanwhile, since 2005 he's gone 85-24 in the regular season (.780, including a 16-0 year), 7-6 in the playoffs, has made 2 SBs, and has a 101.9 QB rating over that span.

That's supposed to hurt him?



My point was that people have been arguing Manning/Brady since at least 2004, not about a change in the argument since then.
   405. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4319439)
Nah, I think there'll be a deal done in time to save the season. At some point, common sense has to take place, but yeah, the NHL choosing five-year guaranteed contracts as "the hill to die on", seems like a rather petty thing on which to cancel the season. No one's putting a gun to these guys heads to sign long deals. Also, the notion that bringing Don Fehr in to close the deal was a "dealbreaker" is mindblowing to me as well. What did they think the union hired him for? Then again, I've long held that NHL "leadership" was the dumbest in pro sports... but I never thought they were this dumb.
it's worse than that. iirc, it only takes 6 owners (out of 30) voting "no" to block a deal from going through.

so, my money is still on cancellation.
   406. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4319440)
I believe Manning is the best ever, which his performance this year merely reinforces. When Brady went down, the Pats went 10-5 with the illustrious Matt Cassel in a starting role. The Colts earned the top pick in the draft without Peyton.

Before those guys, I actually preferred Elway, based on what he accomplished with what I thought was rather pedestrian talent around him (until he got Davis, and promptly won two SBs). I think Marino was in a similar situation, though he also didn't really win anything with the Fins. Montana had some obvious personnel advantages (Rice, Taylor, Clark, Craig, that defense), and a scheme that suited him.
   407. Russ Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4319442)
I mean, if you put Tom Brady (and his entire offensive squad) on the Oakland Raiders, and he goes from a +170 point differential to a +30 point differential, and probably doesn't have a 9-3 record this year.


It's even worse than that. A bad defense limits opportunities for the offense to score by giving up lots of TOP and by giving the offense poor field position (which not only affects scoring, but the ability to take chances on offense).

Of course, it cuts both ways, as the offense also gives the defense a rest and puts the defense in a good position with respect to field position.

It's all intertwined, which is why football is such a tough sport to analyze with respect to individual player contributions.
   408. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4319444)
I've said before that I really _do_ think an NFL quarterback wins and loses games all by himself, as long as the head coach lets him open up the field and do his thing, throw vertically, throw long, throw early and often, etc.


A QB's W/L record matters, so long as the coach puts the game on the QB's shoulders? Okay, but the W/L record has both those games and the games where the coach didn't.
   409. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4319446)
New England time of possession (2012): 30:55
Oakland time of possession (2012): 28:49

So it's an average of 2m6s difference between them this season.

The worst offense in the league (Arizona) has the ball for 29:55.
   410. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4319447)
When Brady went down, the Pats went 10-5 with the illustrious Matt Cassel in a starting role. The Colts earned the top pick in the draft without Peyton.


Matt Cassell had a much better team around him and a HOF coach.
   411. bunyon Posted: December 07, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4319450)
while a QB will NEVER play a defensive role?


Nonsense. Favre found himself on defense quite often.
   412. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:00 PM (#4319451)

Matt Cassell had a much better team around him and a HOF coach.


That's the point. So did Tom Brady.

   413. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:01 PM (#4319452)
Time of possession doesn't tell you anything about the quality (or style) of a team. Winning teams of course run the clock out late in games when they have the ball, and when they don't have the ball and are up by multiple scores will live with giving up long drives by the losing team, the football equivalent of "trading a run for an out."
   414. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:12 PM (#4319460)
That's the point. So did Tom Brady.


The comparison of the Colts had the #1 pick and the Patriots went 11-5 only confirms Manning is better if you already think Manning is better. Put it another way and they look pretty similar: the year before their injuries Brady went 18-1 and Manning went 10-7. Then their teams went 11-5 and 2-14, a drop of 7 and 8 wins respectively.

If you switched QBs the same thing would have happened.
   415. Nasty Nate Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:17 PM (#4319462)
Plus the Colts were tanking the season for the pick, so it's hard to evaluate that year's team in the same way.
   416. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:19 PM (#4319464)
Nonsense. Favre found himself on defense quite often.

Primey.

I know Ray's stance on this, but I do think the rest of the team matters. Maybe not as much as the MSM thinks, but I've seen what happens with (for example) a terrible OL. It affects both the running game and passing game. I just don't think it's that easy to isolate QB performance.

And then we have to agree on what aspect of the performance we're discussing. I don't think Tom Brady is the best pure passer ever, or even the best pure passer playing today. Heck, I think Favre had a better arm in his prime, but Brady is a much smarter QB who makes MUCH better decisions, and I think that's a big part of his success.

   417. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:21 PM (#4319468)
Do you disagree that Brady had a substantially better coaching staff and teammates over his career than Manning did?


Brady had a better head coach, yes, perhaps the greatest head coach ever - because he identified a great quarterback and let his great quarterback do his thing.

I think that's the salient point. So in that sense, yes, Manning was at a disadvantage. The quality of the rest of the coaching staffs and their teammates are, in my view, virtually irrelevant.
   418. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4319471)
Then their teams went 11-5 and 2-14, a drop of 7 and 8 wins respectively.


When you look at the losses, rather than the wins, the change isn't as similar. Moreover, both of those marks were outliers (the Colts' 10-6 on the low side of Manning's tenure - the Pats' 15-1 on the high side of Brady's). Upon his return, Brady took the Pats to the same mark Cassel had.

Of course, the Colts' Luck-fueled 2012 campaign thus far doesn't bolster my case, though a closer look shows that the current crop o' Colts is very much living the charmed life (the beneficiary of a downtrodden AFC and an Orioles-like defiance of Pythag).

Plus the Colts were tanking the season for the pick, so it's hard to evaluate that year's team in the same way.


They won 2 of their final 3 games. They didn't need to try to lose.

   419. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4319478)
I mean, if you put Tom Brady (and his entire offensive squad) on the Oakland Raiders, and he goes from a +170 point differential to a +30 point differential, and probably doesn't have a 9-3 record this year.


That's what I'm disputing. I don't think he does. I think he goes +170 or +150 and 9-3 or 8-4 on the Raiders. (With Belichicken.) Within range of what he's doing now. I think 90% of a team's success or lack thereof is due to the QB and the offensive gameplan directed by the HC.

I think this because the elite QBs win, and always win, even when their teams are changing all around them.
   420. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:31 PM (#4319482)
When you look at the losses, rather than the wins, the change isn't as similar. Moreover, both of those marks were outliers (the Colts' 10-6 on the low side of Manning's tenure - the Pats' 15-1 on the high side of Brady's). Upon his return, Brady took the Pats to the same mark Cassel had.


Oh I freely admit that. And you're right, we're comparing the year after one of Manning's weakest teams and the year after Brady's best team, which is also not a fair comparison. But then I don't care which one was "better"--to me they're equally great. I'm just saying that there are many ways to look at it.

And yeah, the current Colts team are the biggest paper tigers we've seen in years. Every win has been by a TD or less, and other than the Packers none of them are impressive. But as a neutral fan, so what? They've had some fun games to watch.
   421. JJ1986 Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4319484)
That's what I'm disputing. I don't think he does. I think he goes +170 or +150 and 9-3 or 8-4 on the Raiders. (With Belichicken.) Within range of what he's doing now. I think 90% of a team's success or lack thereof is due to the QB and the offensive gameplan directed by the HC.

I think this because the elite QBs win, and always win, even when their teams are changing all around them.


How does your philosophy jive with a team like the Ravens who win every year despite horrible offensive playcalling and a mediocre QB?
   422. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4319487)
I think this because the elite QBs win, and always win, even when their teams are changing all around them.


John Elway had a stretch mid-career where his team went 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 8-8. Brett Favre had a 4-12 season. Marino's teams missed the playoffs about as often as they made them.
   423. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4319489)

Brady had a better head coach, yes, perhaps the greatest head coach ever - because he identified a great quarterback and let his great quarterback do his thing.


Manning was his own coach for most of his tenure in Indy, calling his own plays. So I don't see how he was held back by Indy's coaching staff.
   424. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:42 PM (#4319491)
That's what I'm disputing. I don't think he does. I think he goes +170 or +150 and 9-3 or 8-4 on the Raiders. (With Belichicken.)


Wait, what?

If he's +170 with the Patriots (who have allowed 260 points), you think he'd be +150 with the Raiders (who have allowed 402 points)? You think he'd score MORE points (from 430 to 552) because he switches over to the Raiders?
   425. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4319494)
John Elway had a stretch mid-career where his team went 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 8-8. Brett Favre had a 4-12 season. Marino's teams missed the playoffs about as often as they made them.


If we like QB wins, this is what makes Manning so damn impressive. Since his rookie season (3-13), the Colts had only one season where he won less than 10 games (6-10 in 2001). He had a run of 7 consecutive seasons where he never won less than 12 games (2003-2009).
   426. Nasty Nate Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4319495)
Wait, what?

If he's +170 with the Patriots (who have allowed 260 points), you think he'd be +150 with the Raiders (who have allowed 402 points)? You think he'd score MORE points (from 430 to 552) because he switches over to the Raiders?


I don't necessarily agree that he would be +150 with the Raiders, but it their offense was better, it would make things easier for their defense, so he presumably wouldn't have to get them to 552 to be +150.
   427. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:48 PM (#4319496)

If he's +170 with the Patriots (who have allowed 260 points), you think he'd be +150 with the Raiders (who have allowed 402 points)? You think he'd score MORE points (from 430 to 552) because he switches over to the Raiders?


No, I think the Raiders would allow fewer points with him. Fewer INTs, better QB decisions and results, leading to worse field position for the opposing team when Brady turns the ball over on downs.

Unlike with baseball which has discrete half innings and you can't score while playing defense, points scored/allowed, i.e., offense and defense in football, are linked.
   428. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:49 PM (#4319497)

And yeah, the current Colts team are the biggest paper tigers we've seen in years. Every win has been by a TD or less, and other than the Packers none of them are impressive. But as a neutral fan, so what? They've had some fun games to watch.


Oh, as a Colts fan*, I'm loving it. I'm just not pretending that this is a good team that's 8-4 team.

* A fact that in no way has colored my opinion on the subject of Manning v. Brady. (-:
   429. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:51 PM (#4319498)
The discussion has bogged down a bit - not that it isn't a good one - but I really was interested as much in what peoples' top 7-10 QBs of the past 35 years is, as I was in discussing how people get there.

You can think my analysis is totally off base - fine. But who would your top 7-10 be? Use your own ranking system and base it on your own factors. But I'm really interested in seeing other peoples' lists.
   430. JJ1986 Posted: December 07, 2012 at 01:55 PM (#4319500)
List off the top of my head:

1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Montana
4. Marino

I'm not a big Elway fan, but he probably goes next because he played so much more than Young. I'd have Favre below Drew Brees.
   431. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:03 PM (#4319505)
Best QBs the last 35 years?

Brady, Elway, Favre, Manning, Marino, Montana and Young.
   432. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:04 PM (#4319508)
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Elway
4. Montana
5. Marino


Montana and Marino are close. There are good-sized gaps between 2 and 3 and 5 and whoever 6 might be.

Oh, and to continue on down the list.

43. (tie: Dave Krieg, Troy Aikman)

   433. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4319509)
Oh, as a Colts fan*, I'm loving it. I'm just not pretending that this is a good team that's 8-4 team.


Enjoy the ride. You've got Luck so no worries about how winning is just hurting the draft position (as an Eagles fan this is the reality I face). Eleven draft spots isn't a big deal when you've already got the cornerstone.

43. (tie: Dave Krieg, Troy Aikman)


That's insulting. To Dave Kreig.
   434. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:05 PM (#4319510)
In order?
   435. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4319516)
So do people have Marino over Favre based on era?
   436. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4319532)
Top 8 (in no real order):
Montana
Young
Brady
Manning
Marino
Elway
Moon
Favre

Below that it gets hard to separate, in the next tier would be Aikman, Kelly, Fouts, Brees (to date).

Edit: Marino definitely over Favre: Marino is top three, possibly tops overall, Favre is down the list.
   437. zack Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:14 PM (#4319551)
Been watching KHL games on MSG occasionally, and I don't know if it's the wider ice or just cultural preference, but there is so much less time spent trying to dig the puck out of the boards.

Andrei Markov is playing in this game for Vityaz, can't imagine he's too happy about being locked out for his 30 healthy games this year.
   438. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:20 PM (#4319560)
I would feel more comfortable putting them into groups, rather than a strict ordinal ranking:

Tier One: Manning, Brady, Montana
Tier Two: Young, Favre, Marino
Tier Three: Elway, Rodgers, Kurt Warner

Elway I think is hugely overrated. Here's how much better Manning is than Elway: Manning broke the Broncos' single-season passing TD record last Sunday, in his 12th game with the franchise.

Kurt Warner was as good as any of them. Talk about how elite QBs can win anywhere - he took the freakin' Cardinals to the Super Bowl. But of course, his career was very short.
   439. puck Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4319578)
Elway I think is hugely overrated. Here's how much better Manning is than Elway: Manning broke the Broncos' single-season passing TD record last Sunday, in his 12th game with the franchise.

Don't you live in Colorado? You must have fun with that one. Broncos fans are convinced he's hugely underrated, citing Reeves' conservative sets and a poor receiver group until he was older. Then there are those who just point to all the 4th quarter comebacks and throw everything else out the window.
   440. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4319587)
1. Manning
2. Brady
3. Montana
4. Marino
5. Elway
   441. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 03:58 PM (#4319590)
I would feel more comfortable putting them into groups, rather than a strict ordinal ranking:


I'm glad I'm not the only one. I thought about putting Warner on there, but six great years isn't enough. He's firmly in the second tier for me.

Elway I think is hugely overrated. Here's how much better Manning is than Elway: Manning broke the Broncos' single-season passing TD record last Sunday, in his 12th game with the franchise.


But they played in different eras and the NFL is such a pass heavy league now. When Elway played 22 TDs a year was pretty good, a bottom of the top 10 number. Now it's barely top 15.

Manning had 447 attempts heading into last night, Elway in 1997 had 502; Elway averaged 496 attempts a season, Manning 557. It's not at all surprising he has more TDs. Plus the Broncos ran the ball more at the end of Elway's career than they do now, especially in the red zone. Terrell Davis led the league in TDs in 97 and 98, and they were 6th and 2nd in attempts, compared to the 2012 Broncos who are 11th in attempts and 20th in TDs.
   442. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4319600)
Passing TD % Index Minimum 100 starts
(Like OPS+, but based on TD% of passes attempted, 100 is league average)


                                           
                                  Game Adva
Rk               Player From   To   GS TD%+
1          Steve Young* 1985 1999  143  120
2             Tom Brady 2000 2012  171  118
3        Peyton Manning 1998 2012  221  118
4           Len Dawson* 1957 1975  159  115
5       Terry Bradshaw* 1970 1983  158  114
6           Brett Favre 1991 2010  298  113
7            Drew Brees 2001 2012  165  112
8           Bob Griese* 1967 1980  151  112
9            Jim Kelly* 1986 1996  160  112
10          Dan Marino* 1983 1999  240  112
11        Philip Rivers 2004 2012  108  112
12          Kurt Warner 1998 2009  116  112
13         Steve Grogan 1975 1990  135  111
14         Joe Montana* 1979 1994  164  111
15      Roger Staubach* 1969 1979  114  111
16         Otto Graham* 1946 1955  114  110
17           Dave Krieg 1980 1998  175  110
18   Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012  122  110
19   Randall Cunningham 1985 2001  135  109
20       Boomer Esiason 1984 1997  173  109


* HOF
   443. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4319602)
Passer Rating +, minimum 100 starts

                                            
                                  Game  Pass
Rk               Player From   To   GS Rate+
1          Otto Graham* 1946 1955  114   127
2          Steve Young* 1985 1999  143   126
3          Joe Montana* 1979 1994  164   123
4       Roger Staubach* 1969 1979  114   121
5           Len Dawson* 1957 1975  159   120
6             Tom Brady 2000 2012  171   119
7        Peyton Manning 1998 2012  221   119
8           Kurt Warner 1998 2009  116   117
9          Ken Anderson 1971 1986  172   115
10     Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974  149   115
11           Drew Brees 2001 2012  165   114
12      Fran Tarkenton* 1961 1978  239   114
13   Norm Van Brocklin* 1949 1960  101   114
14          Bob Griese* 1967 1980  151   113
15          Dan Marino* 1983 1999  240   113
16        Philip Rivers 2004 2012  108   113
17   Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012  122   113
18          Bart Starr* 1956 1971  158   113
19           Dan Fouts* 1973 1987  171   112
20         Y.A. Tittle* 1948 1964  154   112
   444. smileyy Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4319603)
The difficulty in era comparisons is what makes Elway's "scrappiness" and "comebackability" boost him in people's esteems. I don't know if that's right or wrong, but its a visible constant across eras.

Though at the same time, Elway was a "big game choker" like Manning was, until he won a Super Bowl, and then all of a sudden he wasn't.

And on the gripping hand, the helicopter-spin-for-a-first-down in his first Super Bowl win applied Elway's scrappiness to that winner narrative.
   445. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4319613)
Broncos fans are convinced he's hugely underrated, citing Reeves' conservative sets and a poor receiver group until he was older.


They loved Steve Watson and Vance Johnson at the time, didn't they? It's only once they realized Elway's stats aren't that impressive that they started whining about his receivers.



But they played in different eras and the NFL is such a pass heavy league now. When Elway played 22 TDs a year was pretty good, a bottom of the top 10 number. Now it's barely top 15.


Elway never even led the league in TD passes for a season. He finished (a distant) second once, fourth twice. In his biggest TD year, he still threw two fewer than Jeff George.
   446. zack Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4319618)
Different sport, different (and worse) ways to measure player effectiveness (because you don't have the individual pitcher/batter and fielder/ball matchups that you have in baseball), etc. I've said before that I really _do_ think an NFL quarterback wins and loses games all by himself, as long as the head coach lets him open up the field and do his thing, throw vertically, throw long, throw early and often, etc.


If individual players are harder to measure, you should be more critical of results, especially team results, than less critical. Isn't that the classic fallacy that leads to pitcher wins, goalie wins and super bowl titles being judged above all else?

Sticking to Manning vs. Brady, if you just watch each play it seems obvious to me that Manning's success is more related to his skills than Brady's is. The big moments of Patriots games feature many players rising to greatness. The big moments of Colts game feature mostly Manning doing so. You routinely see him take over a game in a way that Brady doesn't. Manning's ability to read the set is absolutely unprecedented in my mind.

   447. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:38 PM (#4319626)


They loved Steve Watson and Vance Johnson at the time, didn't they? It's only once they realized Elway's stats aren't that impressive that they started whining about his receivers.


Broncos fans might have loved them, but they were the only ones. I honestly think the talent around Elway for most of his career was crap, unlike a certain multi-ringed QB who most folks rank above him.

And unlike with Peyton, there's no fanboyism involved with my ranking of that horsefaced jackass.
   448. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4319631)

Don't you live in Colorado? You must have fun with that one. Broncos fans are convinced he's hugely underrated, citing Reeves' conservative sets and a poor receiver group until he was older. Then there are those who just point to all the 4th quarter comebacks and throw everything else out the window.


4th quarter comebacks to me are more of a negative than a positive. Because it tells me that in too many games, you had your team down in the 4th quarter. (Eli.)

Brady/Manning/Montana had nothing to come back from, leading the game the vast majority of the time.

I mean, Eli certainly can handle a 4th quarter comeback drive, but so can the others. Eli is just there more often than them, so he gets noticed more.
   449. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4319637)
Elway never even led the league in TD passes for a season. He finished (a distant) second once, fourth twice. In his biggest TD year, he still threw two fewer than Jeff George.


Football is more than just stats, particularly just one stat. Highlighted by Jeff George throwing more TDs than John Elway. Although, that said, his stats across the table were pretty unimpressive for a top tier HOFer. And don't forget he had some value as a runner, over 3000 rushing yards.



   450. JL Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:16 PM (#4319670)
Not really. The 3 SB wins are banked, and Brady takes a back seat only to Montana in that department. Meanwhile, since 2005 he's gone 85-24 in the regular season (.780, including a 16-0 year), 7-6 in the playoffs, has made 2 SBs, and has a 101.9 QB rating over that span.



I have not seen it mentioned, but the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since Spygate. Does that take off some of the shine of Brady and Belichik?
   451. Tom Nawrocki Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:18 PM (#4319671)
Although, that said, his stats across the table were pretty unimpressive for a top tier HOFer.


Yeah. I'm not saying he wasn't a great player, because he clearly was. But it's awfully hard to argue that Elway belongs in the discussion for greatest QB of all time, once you start looking at his stats.

To make a baseball analogy, in the ranks of the greatest right fielders of all time, Elway would be a lot closer to Roberto Clemente than he would be to Hank Aaron, not to mention Babe Ruth. But there's no shame in being Roberto Clemente.
   452. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4319677)
I have not seen it mentioned, but the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since Spygate. Does that take off some of the shine of Brady and Belichik?


No. If David Tyree doesn't make that miraculous catch or maybe if Wes Welker's hands didn't turn into frying pans they win a couple more Super Bowls. Spygate wasn't the reason they lost two Super Bowls to the luckiest team ever.
   453. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:30 PM (#4319683)
I have not seen it mentioned, but the Patriots have not won a Super Bowl since Spygate. Does that take off some of the shine of Brady and Belichik?


No.

No. If David Tyree doesn't make that miraculous catch or maybe if Wes Welker's hands didn't turn into frying pans they win a couple more Super Bowls. Spygate wasn't the reason they lost two Super Bowls to the luckiest team ever.


Yeah, and even their "spygate-fueled" SB wins were by 3 points or whatever.
   454. SoSH U at work Posted: December 07, 2012 at 05:32 PM (#4319684)
Yeah. I'm not saying he wasn't a great player, because he clearly was. But it's awfully hard to argue that Elway belongs in the discussion for greatest QB of all time, once you start looking at his stats.


FBRef's Approximate Career Weighted Value (which tries to rank all players) puts him well below Favre, a little behind Marino, a hair above Young and well above Montana (AV is not a big fan of Joe) on the all-time leaderboard. Peyton, of course, is first. Brady's already shot past Montana, and may eventually get to No. 2 on the list.



   455. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 07, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4319704)
FBRef's Approximate Career Weighted Value (which tries to rank all players) puts him well below Favre, a little behind Marino, a hair above Young and well above Montana (AV is not a big fan of Joe) on the all-time leaderboard. Peyton, of course, is first. Brady's already shot past Montana, and may eventually get to No. 2 on the list.


Meh. That has Fran Tarkenton the 7th greatest player ever, 3rd greatest QB ever. Tarkenton was great, but he wasn't that great.
   456. Petunia inquires about ponies Posted: December 07, 2012 at 08:19 PM (#4319762)
Since you asked for data points:

1. Manning
2. Montana
3. Brady
4. Marino
5. Elway
6. Young
7. Favre

And. [386] re the Niners:
Are you confounding the 1st and 2nd rams games? I think they missed maybe 3-4 tackles in the 2nd. Jackson was 21 for 48 yards with 1 9 yard run... unless he was breaking a lot of tackles 4 yards behind the LOS (he probably did break a couple).
Possibly. When I originally wrote the post I said something about more broken tackles in the two Rams games together than the rest of the season but deleted it for tortured syntax and to preserve my angry hyperbole.

I still think you're understating the case in just the 2nd Rams game though. It wasn't just Jackson - but I'd venture to guess half his yards gained DID come after contact.

I don't think this is fair either. I think they often call 2 runs in the huddle with the roll/kill call. Although I agree in GENERAL that they were either horribly misreading STL defense at the line, vastly optimistic about their OL, or tipping plays.
You're 100% right there, zenbitz. We don't know what CK was 'kill'ing OUT of, just that every time he did it - whatever the cause - the results were poor.
   457. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 07, 2012 at 08:55 PM (#4319771)
favre has his flaws but i would remind people of a single thing that if you consider it is astounding. bill schroeder was a 1000 yard receiver with favre as qb. he turned that into a big contract with the lions, couldn't keep a starting job and was soon out of the league.

i know all of the issues with favre. i also know that in the 90's he had some amazing seasons. and then after breaking the thumb in 99 and not being able to properly grip the ball especially in cold weather he still had the ability to be really good. and in the last five years he was death to teams that blitzed him.

i freely state my bias but the notion that elway was better than favre is just silly to me.
   458. zenbitz Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:29 PM (#4319777)
I've said before that I really _do_ think an NFL quarterback wins and loses games all by himself, as long as the head coach lets him open up the field and do his thing, throw vertically, throw long, throw early and often, etc


Possibly the most incorrect thing you've ever said on BBTF. Serious - a QB needs guys to block for him, guys to throw to, and a running game and defense to keep the pressure off.

The stat, I think you want to look at is ANY/A+ and AY/A+ (Net includes sacks, which are "somewhat" the QBs fault). +, as you all know, means adjusted for era.

Maddeningly, the leaders list is NOT available from pro-football-reference.com. So this is a MANUAL compilation, there may be people left off.

But the obvious leaders:
Young 122/125 (~4100 attempts)
Rodgers 122/126 (~2500 attempts)
Staubach 121/123 (~3000 attempts)
P.Manning 120/116 (~7700 attempts)
Montana 121/118 (~5400 attempts)
Brady 119/117 (~5800 attempts)
Warner 116/116 (~4000 attempts)
Marino 119/112 (~8358 attempts)
Fouts 117/114 (~5600 attempts)
<
gap>
Favre 108/106 (>10000 attempts)
Elway 106/106 (7250 attempts)
(
Eli Manning zone


Older guys don't have sack numbers, but I didn't see anyone leap out on the AY/A lists.
Peyton -- barring a decline phase -- I think is probably the GOAT. I grew up watching Montana and Young, and Peyton "seems" better. Brady hasn't passed Montana yet, but he might on value - as might Aaron Rodgers. Biggest surprise for me on this list was Roger Staubach, but hey, anti-cowboy bias. I was going to add Aikman, but his PFBR page is messed up and doesn't have career totals!
   459. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:43 PM (#4319783)
Maddeningly, the leaders list is NOT available from pro-football-reference.com. So this is a MANUAL compilation, there may be people left off.


You can still use the Play Index to compile the lists.

ANY/A+ (Minimum 100 starts)
                                           
                                Game   
Rk             Player From   To   GS ANY/A+
1        Steve Young* 1985 1999  143    123
2        Joe Montana* 1979 1994  164    121
3      Peyton Manning 1998 2012  221    120
4     Roger Staubach* 1969 1979  114    120
5           Tom Brady 2000 2012  171    119
6         Dan Marino* 1983 1999  240    119
7          Dan Fouts* 1973 1987  171    117
8        Babe Parilli 1952 1969  101    116
9         Kurt Warner 1998 2009  116    116
10         Drew Brees 2001 2012  165    114
11   Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974  149    114
12      Philip Rivers 2004 2012  108    114
13       Ken Anderson 1971 1986  172    113
14        John Brodie 1957 1973  159    113
15        Jeff Garcia 1999 2011  116    112
16        Trent Green 1997 2008  113    112
17    Fran Tarkenton* 1961 1978  239    112
18       Billy Kilmer 1961 1978  124    111
19        Bob Griese* 1967 1980  151    110
20       Earl Morrall 1956 1976  102    110


AY/A+ (Minimum 100 starts)
                                            
                                  Game  
Rk               Player From   To   GS AY/A+
1          Otto Graham* 1946 1955  114   129
2          Steve Young* 1985 1999  143   125
3       Roger Staubach* 1969 1979  114   122
4          Joe Montana* 1979 1994  164   118
5             Tom Brady 2000 2012  171   117
6           Len Dawson* 1957 1975  159   116
7        Peyton Manning 1998 2012  221   116
8           Kurt Warner 1998 2009  116   116
9         Philip Rivers 2004 2012  108   115
10   Ben Roethlisberger 2004 2012  122   115
11   Norm Van Brocklin* 1949 1960  101   114
12         Ken Anderson 1971 1986  172   113
13           Dan Fouts* 1973 1987  171   113
14          Trent Green 1997 2008  113   112
15          Dan Marino* 1983 1999  240   112
16          Bart Starr* 1956 1971  158   112
17          Bob Griese* 1967 1980  151   111
18     Sonny Jurgensen* 1957 1974  149   111
19         Earl Morrall 1956 1976  102   111
20       Johnny Unitas* 1956 1973  186   111

   460. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 07, 2012 at 09:44 PM (#4319784)
What I'm learning from compiling these lists is that Steve Young might be the most underrated HOF QB of the bunch.
   461. Gaelan Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4319830)
I was going to say if Steve Young isn't at or near the top of your list you are doing it wrong.
   462. SoSH U at work Posted: December 08, 2012 at 12:54 AM (#4319832)
What I'm learning from compiling these lists is that Steve Young might be the most underrated HOF QB of the bunch.


I'll freely admit I've been underrating him. Hell, I didn't realize his career was as long as it was. With his foray in the USFL, the misfire in Tampa and then the backup to Montana gig, I figured his career as a starter was similar in length to Kurt Warner's, but it was a good two-plus seasons longer.
   463. Morph Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:10 AM (#4319833)
Speaking of Steve Young, I've always found this old SI article fascinating: it's written in the immediate aftermath of the Joe Montana trade. It includes a particularly fascinating paragraph about the 49'ers supposedly attempting to trade Young, creating a succession plan of Montana to Mirer. (the hypothetical Young trade would have been with Seattle, for the no. 2 overall pick) Better to be lucky sometimes, I suppose.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1138101/index.htm
   464. Morph Posted: December 08, 2012 at 01:11 AM (#4319834)
double post linkage fail.
   465. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 08, 2012 at 02:00 AM (#4319842)
Possibly the most incorrect thing you've ever said on BBTF. Serious - a QB needs guys to block for him, guys to throw to, and a running game and defense to keep the pressure off.


And I think other than truly elite players all players are basically the same. I think once you make it to the NFL there's very little separation amongst the vast majority of players.

Think of it like buying a car. You can spend $15,000 or you can spend $55,000. Both cars are getting you from New York to Boston the vast, vast majority of the time.

   466. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 08, 2012 at 02:05 AM (#4319843)
I think this because the elite QBs win, and always win, even when their teams are changing all around them.

John Elway had a stretch mid-career where his team went 8-8, 9-7, 7-9, 8-8. Brett Favre had a 4-12 season. Marino's teams missed the playoffs about as often as they made them.


The exceptions prove the rule, because there are so few of them. Favre's 4-12 was an "expected" 7-9 per point differential. Not so bad. Elway's worst stretch was .500? Sign me up.

And I'm with Harvey on Favre; I didn't expect to be so impressed by Favre when I looked at his stats today.
   467. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 08, 2012 at 07:05 PM (#4320091)
Ugh.

Dallas Cowboys practice-squad LB Jerry Brown killed in one-car accident, teammate Josh Brent charged with intoxication manslaughter

Irving police spokesman John Argumaniz said the accident happened about 2:20 a.m. Saturday in the Dallas suburb. Brent was speeding when the vehicle hit a curb and flipped at least once, Argumaniz said. The 25-year-old Brown was found unresponsive at the scene and pronounced dead at a hospital.
   468. zenbitz Posted: December 08, 2012 at 08:01 PM (#4320108)
And I think other than truly elite players all players are basically the same. I think once you make it to the NFL there's very little separation amongst the vast majority of players.


An odd claim... what you are saying in essence is that all teams have an average defense. I'll even grant (for now) the implicit statement that all differences on offense are due to the QB.
   469. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 08, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4320112)
Again I note that the top two tiers of QBs lead their teams to good records the vast, vast majority of the time.

   470. zenbitz Posted: December 08, 2012 at 09:02 PM (#4320122)
How often do such QBs change teams?
The KC Chiefs went from 10-6 under Dave Kreig to 11-5 under Joe Montana
The Vikings went from 10-6 under Gus Ferrotte to 12-4 under Brett Favre

Not sure Ferrotte and Kreig are 2nd tier, even though they have playoff caliber teams.

The Broncos under Peyton Manning are likely to improve by 4 games or so. Keeping in mind that their QB was awful.


But EVEN THEN we know that w/l record in 16 games (let alone 2-4 game playoff tournaments) are not anywhere near 100% reflective of team quality. Close games have essentially random outcomes.

Good quarterbacking is obviously correlated with winning. But the causation arrow is a little harder to unravel.

Steve Young was horrible with the 2-12 Bucs. Did he just learn to quarterback on the Niners bench for 4 years? Probably a little.

But all these guys had good teams around them. Archie Manning has stoutly average passing numbers. His teams went 35-101-3.
   471. MHS Posted: December 08, 2012 at 10:09 PM (#4320144)
Re: 459 if your not adjusting for park/environment cross era metrics are irrelevant . Manning playing so many games in client control should really ding him in these comparisons.
   472. zenbitz Posted: December 09, 2012 at 12:41 AM (#4320213)
459 is adjusted for era
   473. MHS Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:14 AM (#4320266)
472 but not adjusted for field, particularly domes which Is a tremendous adantage for a passer.
   474. McCoy Posted: December 09, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4320342)
Bears suck. How many teams have gone 7-1 and then gone 1-7?
   475. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 02:31 PM (#4320343)
474:

the 1978 packers were at 7-2 and went 1-5-1 as a finish
   476. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 09, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4320379)
I gotta think that if they hadn't committed a 5-yard false start on a field goal attempt (the ensuing field goal hit the uprights and obviously would have gone through if it was 5 yards shorter), and if they hadn't fumbled a fair catch (in fact the ball barely grazed the body of the guy who thought he was going to catch it) giving the Bucs the ball at the 5-yard line, the Eagles might not be behind by as many points right now.
   477. JJ1986 Posted: December 09, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4320381)
DeAngelo Hall just spent about 10 yards hanging onto Boldin's jersey with no attempt to tackle him.
   478. Howie Menckel Posted: December 09, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4320388)

And just like that, the defending champion Giants are looking at 3rd place in the NFC East if they lose to the Saints here. no pressure.

If all three teams are tied entering Week 17, the Giants are eliminated from the division and the Cowboys will play the Redskins for the division title that day.
Of course, the Giants could get a 10-6 or 9-7 wild card (or run the table incl today and go 11-5 to close out the upstarts...
   479. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4320390)
what's the word on jay cutler?
   480. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 09, 2012 at 05:46 PM (#4320391)
what's the word on jay cutler?


His skirt got ruffled but he will be OK.
   481. BDC Posted: December 09, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4320414)
The Cowboys just had two stretches where they went 1-4 and then 4-1, and I can't shake the feeling that they played better in going 1-4. But hey, it's fun to be above .500 again, and their defense returned to form a bit in Cincinnati today.
   482. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: December 09, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4320415)
The Cardinals are horrifically bad.

Wiz has to go.
   483. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 09, 2012 at 09:04 PM (#4320468)
Man, not getting a win in two games against the Rams has put the Niners in a tough situation. They have to play New England and Seattle on the road over the next two weeks. The New England game is obviously going to be a tough one and the Seahawks are much better at home. If they lose both games, they are likely still going to make the playoffs but probably as a wild card. If they win one game, they'll probably get a first round bye.
   484. STEAGLES is all out of bubblegum Posted: December 09, 2012 at 09:37 PM (#4320483)
i think this week almost perfectly encapsulates the last 5 eagles seasons:

they won a meaningless game on the same day they were mathematically eliminated from the playoffs, and by beating tampa bay, they simultaneously improved the playoff positioning of their divisional rivals while also hurting their own positioning when it comes to the draft.


####.


   485. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:02 PM (#4320497)
With Kansas City and Jacksonville losing winnable games today it's almost impossible for the Eagles to get the #1 pick. So now instead of the 4th pick they have the 5th or 6th pick at the moment depending on tie breaker with the Titans. There's not a lot of difference there. And even if they got the #1 pick, there's no sure fire QB in this year's draft, so there's a good chance they would stay with Foles and trade down for more picks, which Howie Roseman would #### up anyway. This team isn't going very far as long as he's the GM.
   486. MHS Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4320504)
Seattle is insanely tough at home.
   487. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:07 PM (#4320505)
da

there is a fellow alum of mine who was an insufferable eagles fan in the good patch of the aughts telling everyone that the eagles had it all figured out, managed the cap better than anyone, found players better than anyone, etc, etc, etc

now he won't respond to emails, texts or anything. folks aren't even razzing him. just want to talk football. it's pretty pathetic.
   488. McCoy Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:15 PM (#4320513)
He's probably dead.
   489. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:16 PM (#4320515)
The Lions are a lot better than their record.
   490. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:20 PM (#4320519)
russlan

most teams look pretty good when their quarterback isn't missing anything
   491. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4320522)
post 488

well, that might be but then one would think his wife would mention it when she speaks to my wife

but maybe not
   492. DA Baracus is a "bloodthirsty fan of Atlanta." Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4320523)
there is a fellow alum of mine who was an insufferable eagles fan in the good patch of the aughts telling everyone that the eagles had it all figured out, managed the cap better than anyone, found players better than anyone, etc, etc, etc

now he won't respond to emails, texts or anything. folks aren't even razzing him. just want to talk football. it's pretty pathetic.


I'll always talk football. Particularly older stuff. Can't get enough of it.

Your friend wasn't entirely wrong. Early in Reid's tenure they did manage the cap better than anyone and were as good as anyone other than Pittsburgh and Baltimore in finding depth players and replacing departed players with ease. (For example every year of Reid's tenure they had a different trio of mediocre starting linebackers but while Jim Johnson was alive the defense rarely skipped a beat.) But then the league caught up quickly while the Eagles stood still, in part because they mimicked the Eagles cap management. In the past few years the front office has been completely isolated, when someone would leave to go to another team, they always promote from within. No new ideas, no outside perspectives, no fresh takes on anything; that's the quickest way to get left behind. The Eagles were never better than an average drafting team in the past, but Roseman is a poor drafter (well, poor at everything) and it's killing them. I have absolutely no confidence in him. The next few years are going to suck.
   493. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 09, 2012 at 10:27 PM (#4320529)
officiating being what it has been i half expected that play to be called an incomplete pass
   494. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 09, 2012 at 11:23 PM (#4320569)
The Lions are a lot better than their record.


Easily the most underachieving team this season. Lost three straight games when having the lead with 2 minutes to go (2nd team ever to do so). Have outgained opponents by 750 yards. Lost one game by 3 points allowing 3 non-offensive TDs. Another game by 7 points allowing 2 non-offensive TDs. And in this game dominating the Packers and a crazy fumble led to the Packers getting back into the game. Just a crap season.

Oh forgot the Bears game they lost where they fumbled twice in the redzone, including once on the goal line in a game they lost by 6 points (not even counting the muff punt that gave the Bears an easy 3 points).
   495. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: December 10, 2012 at 01:03 AM (#4320621)
I refuse to believe that the Cardinals actually started 4-0. And that they beat the Patriots in that stretch.
   496. zenbitz Posted: December 10, 2012 at 01:35 AM (#4320640)
Yeah the Niners have a couple if tough games coming up. But they are going to have to win tough games in the playoffs too.
   497. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 10, 2012 at 01:48 AM (#4320653)
The Cardinals are horrifically bad.

Wiz has to go.


Is Wisenhunt to blame for the Cardinals having no QB?
   498. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 10, 2012 at 01:51 AM (#4320655)
Another week...Detroit outgains Green Bay and loses by 7. Of course a crazy fumble by Stafford is brought back for a TD. What a crappy season.
   499. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 10, 2012 at 02:01 AM (#4320664)
Do running QBs like Robert Griffin have long, productive careers? It seems they're always battling injury due to their style of play.
   500. Tripon Posted: December 10, 2012 at 02:04 AM (#4320667)
Is Wisenhunt to blame for the Cardinals having no QB?


He's a big part of it. He has a lot of input on roster management, and decides who starts. Remember, Kolb wasn't his starting at the beginning of the season, it was Skelton. After Kolb went down, it was clear that whomever Wisenhunt put in was not going to be good, which is the head coach fault for not preparing them. Especially Skelton, who was again, the starter at day one.
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