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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

OT: NFL/NHL thread

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

steagles Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:03 AM | 8370 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, nhl

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   4501. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:07 PM (#4614623)
Light dawns over Marblehead:

Shanahan said Monday that he was thinking about sitting Griffin for the rest of the season because of concern that the quarterback could be injured.
   4502. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:11 PM (#4614625)
Just gonna repost #4500 in response to that:

Griffin is obviously hurt, and has been all year. He should never have played this year at all. Now he's probably permanently ruined for it.

Based on recent disclosures, if Shanahan benches Griffin it'll be as a final \"#### you" to Dan Snyder before he cleans out his office.

Shanahan has to be the most overrated coach of the last 20 years. In any case Washington is probably going to pick in the top three and will probably take the aptly-named Clowney because that's the kind of thing they'd--oh wait, no, actually they traded that pick to the Rams for the guy they just ruined by playing him all year on an insufficiently healed blown-out knee.

You can't fire the owner, and so it figures to be a dark, dark next 30 years or so for Washington fans.
   4503. zack Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:20 PM (#4614640)
C'mon, don't be dramatic. They didn't ruin Griffin by playing him this year. They ruined him by playing him last year.
   4504. steagles Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:22 PM (#4614642)
i think the eagles are a pretty good bet at 30:1. if i'm interpreting the odds correctly, they're being discounted because they're tied with the cowboys, but since the cowboys are choking, flea-ridden dogs, that's basically just doubling your payout.
   4505. DA Baracus Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:42 PM (#4614663)
Shanahan has to be the most overrated coach of the last 20 years.


I'll see your Shanahan and raise you a Tom Coughlin.
   4506. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 06:44 PM (#4614667)
I'll see your Shanahan and raise you a Tom Coughlin.


Agreed.
   4507. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:08 PM (#4614688)
Of coaches with 2 SB wins, yes, both those guys are on the list. Of coaches with only 1, the most overrated is getting his number retired tonight.
   4508. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:16 PM (#4614693)
Overrated as a coach, no question, but sure as hell not overrated as a player. Mike Ditka practically invented the modern tight end position.
   4509. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:19 PM (#4614700)
I'd rather have Coughlin coaching my team than Shanahan, I think. Shanahan seems to be in love with his own genius in a palpable way that I've never detected from Coughlin. Or anybody else for that matter.
   4510. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:21 PM (#4614701)
Not that I am arguing that point, but his number isn't getting retired just because of his playing career.
   4511. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:21 PM (#4614702)
Based on recent disclosures, if Shanahan benches Griffin it'll be as a final \"#### you" to Dan Snyder before he cleans out his office.

The final act of the various breakups of "Mr." Snyder and his coaches is one of life's most enjoyable pleasures.
   4512. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:36 PM (#4614710)
I'd rather have Coughlin coaching my team than Shanahan, I think. Shanahan seems to be in love with his own genius in a palpable way that I've never detected from Coughlin. Or anybody else for that matter.


Just a single data point, but Coughlin appears to have benched Hakim Nicks in the simply must-win game against Dallas a couple weeks ago -- and it hurt them.

A loss to Dallas would all but end their season, but Coughlin engaged in the silliness anyway.
   4513. DA Baracus Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:46 PM (#4614717)
I'd rather have Coughlin coaching my team than Shanahan, I think. Shanahan seems to be in love with his own genius in a palpable way that I've never detected from Coughlin. Or anybody else for that matter.


Coughlin fines his players for being 4 minutes early to a meeting and berates his players on the field during games. He's just as much an ass as Shanahan.
   4514. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 09, 2013 at 07:57 PM (#4614726)
Not that I am arguing that point, but his number isn't getting retired just because of his playing career.

I know that; I just wanted to reiterate what a great player Ditka was. There was a great story I read somewhere recently that noted that between Ditka's first coach (George Halas) and Ditka's broadcasting career, you've got pretty much the entire history of the NFL encompassed by the careers of just two individuals. I wonder if you could do that for any two individuals associated with baseball, even starting in 1920.
   4515. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:02 PM (#4614727)
The final act of the various breakups of "Mr." Snyder and his coaches is one of life's most enjoyable pleasures.

There's never been any sports schadenfreude like Snyder schadenfreude.

Well, maybe watching Whitey Herzog pop about ten blood vessels in the last game of the 1985 World Series gave me more pure pleasure, but that only lasted for an evening. Snyder schadenfreude is like a perpetual motion machine.
   4516. steagles Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:15 PM (#4614735)
I know that; I just wanted to reiterate what a great player Ditka was. There was a great story I read somewhere recently that noted that between Ditka's first coach (George Halas) and Ditka's broadcasting career, you've got pretty much the entire history of the NFL encompassed by the careers of just two individuals. I wonder if you could do that for any two individuals associated with baseball, even starting in 1920.
vin scully, branch rickey.
   4517. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:41 PM (#4614741)
^ Ohh, that's good. Rickey's career in pro baseball goes all the way back to 1903.
   4518. JJ1986 Posted: December 09, 2013 at 08:50 PM (#4614744)
Just a single data point, but Coughlin appears to have benched Hakim Nicks in the simply must-win game against Dallas a couple weeks ago -- and it hurt them.


What the ####? Nicks was injured.
   4519. Howie Menckel Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:03 PM (#4614746)

A couple of years back, the Saints got screwed and had to hit the road as a very strong wild card to play the laughably bad Seahawks who "won" their division at 7-9 - and the Seahawks won that game.
   4520. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:18 PM (#4614754)
No, Nicks was not injured. He was coming off an injury but healthy. EG:

Ralph Vacchiano ?@RVacchianoNYDN 8m
Tom Coughlin said Hakeem Nicks didn't play because he didn't practice all week.


@Giants_101: Tom Coughlin said the team made the decision not to play Hakeem Nicks

It's no secret that Coughlin doesn't like Nicks. How much of that is Coughlin buying into the silliness that Nicks not catching a TD pass this season is anything but a fluke is anyone's guess.
   4521. thok Posted: December 09, 2013 at 09:41 PM (#4614765)
Just a single data point, but Coughlin appears to have benched Hakim Nicks in the simply must-win game against Dallas a couple weeks ago -- and it hurt them.


The Giants have not had a must-win game this season. You might have thought they had a chance of winning the division when they were 4-6 and Dallas/Philly was 5-5, but apparently you didn't realize their wins were against teams that were at the time quarterbacked by Josh Freeman, Matt Barkley, Terrell Pryor, and Scott Tolzein.
   4522. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 01:29 AM (#4614866)
thok, I was aware of that. They have sucked all year. It doesn't change the fact that a win against the Cowboys would have put them in business.
   4523. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 10, 2013 at 08:01 AM (#4614895)
There was a great story I read somewhere recently that noted that between Ditka's first coach (George Halas) and Ditka's broadcasting career, you've got pretty much the entire history of the NFL encompassed by the careers of just two individuals. I wonder if you could do that for any two individuals associated with baseball, even starting in 1920.

vin scully, branch rickey.


Of course, though I did have to check to make sure that Rickey didn't leave Brooklyn in 1950 before Scully was hired. But since O'Malley didn't force him out for good until October of that year, there's a full season of overlap.

I guess the first pair in basketball that'd come to mind would be Johnny Wooden and Bill Walton. Wooden began his basketball career at Purdue in 1929 and overlapped with Walton for three years at UCLA.
   4524. jmurph Posted: December 10, 2013 at 10:16 AM (#4614934)
The Bears inevitably signing Cutler to a big money extension is going to be hilarious.
   4525. zenbitz Posted: December 10, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4615127)
Just wanted to repost Zack's 4403 after last nights game

Quarterback and offensive game plan are everything in the NFL.

Are you contractually obligated to say this on every single page of this thread or something? How does that explain the Bears? Or Dallas?

   4526. zenbitz Posted: December 10, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4615135)
I actually have no idea how the chip kelly eagles will do against the top teams in the NFC. In raw performance they would appear to be underdogs, but possibly the match ups trump that. 30-1 seems like a good bet, even if they have to go through Seattle.

Maybe they will go to play cards to counter the noise.
   4527. Greg K Posted: December 10, 2013 at 01:57 PM (#4615154)
thok, I was aware of that. They have sucked all year. It doesn't change the fact that a win against the Cowboys would have put them in business.

Yeah, and you can probably give the same response to the fellow who said the Eagles wouldn't make the playoffs last page. You don't need to be a good team to make the playoffs, you just need to be better than the Cowboys.
   4528. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:25 PM (#4615206)
The Eagles would have to beat either San Francisco or Carolina, and then win in New Orleans and then win in Seattle. I wouldn't put money on them at 80 to 1.
   4529. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:26 PM (#4615208)
"You will be allowed to have food in your car and have drink in your car," Kelly said. "And provided you're in the boundaries of a single parking space, you'll be able to eat or drink right next to your car. However, you're not going to be able to take out a lounge chair, you're not going to be able to take out a grill, and you're not going to be able to take up more than one parking space. And it'll all be watched very carefully."


The NFL on its policy on tailgating at the Super Bowl. And this (more from the espn article).

There will be only three ways for the expected 80,000 ticket holders to get to the game. The committee will charter buses called the Fan Express, which will cost $51 and pick up and drop off passengers at nine locations around the region. Fans can also take N.J. Transit to the MetLife Stadium stop or be dropped off by vehicles that must have parking passes.

There will be fewer than 13,000 parking spots available for fans.

And hiring a black car, taxi or limo won't be an option for VIPs who will spend thousands of dollars per ticket. No cars will be allowed near the stadium on game day without parking passes, and any car that drops off a passenger will have to wait at the stadium.

"Nobody's going to be dropped off by black car," Kelly said. "You can have a black car, a green car, a white car, a red car as long as you have parking, and the car needs to stay on the premises the entire time."

Fans who had considered parking farther from the stadium and getting there on foot will not be allowed to enter.

"You cannot walk to the Super Bowl," Kelly said. "You can get your hotel to drop you off at one of the New Jersey Transit locations or get the shuttle to take you to a Fan Express location, but you cannot walk."


this reads like a comedy.
   4530. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:38 PM (#4615235)
"this reads like a comedy"

Yeah, thankfully I'm not planning to attend the Super Bowl. This was a bad site for it all around, starting with the weather and then moving to transportation issues, etc. I imagine the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl will be done in Manhattan at various sites (e.g., Javitz Center, etc.). I should probably take a vacation during those two weeks and get the hell out of the city before a million loons descend on it.
   4531. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4615245)
There will be fewer than 13,000 parking spots available for fans.

So do they let corporations use the other parking spaces for exhibits and mingling tents and whatnot? Where do the other parking spaces go?

Yeah, thankfully I'm not planning to attend the Super Bowl. This was a bad site for it all around,

Less than 10 miles from home, easily accessable by train? Nah. I'll be monitoring StubHub.

The only other time the Super Bowl was in my (kind of) hometown, I was a barely 18 college freshman and couldn't think of spending the money to go. But our dorm and cafeteria did get the opportunity to host the halftime entertainment -- the legendary Up With People. Never was a more earnest troupe to be found.

   4532. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 10, 2013 at 02:53 PM (#4615249)
The Bears inevitably signing Cutler to a big money extension is going to be hilarious.

The top story at chicagotribune.com right now is about the Bears "QB controversy." You have to go to the sports page on suntimes.com to get there. It's on the front page of ESPN.com right now. It's far from a sure thing that Cutler even plays again this year, much less them signing him to a huge deal.

And that's not even taking into account the new GM and coaching staff, who have done very little at this point to make me think they're going to overcommit to Cutler; I'd use the way the Bears handled Urlacher last season as evidence. It's not like McCown is really an option - he could theoretically be the starter next year if the Bears draft a QB*. So I think there's a chance Cutler comes back on a short deal - maybe even the franchise one - but he's not getting anything near the Flacco deal at this point.

*The Bears need pretty much an entire new defense, so I'd be shocked if they took a QB in the mid-first round (which is where they're likely to be picking). They probably will spend most of their money on the defense too - lots of FAs and suck there.
   4533. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4615265)
There was a good WSJ journal article this past Friday (which could be written each year) on the million people with the same idea of 'renting' out their 'cool' house for Super Bowl week and thinking it will be an easy kill.
   4534. jmurph Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:12 PM (#4615281)
So I think there's a chance Cutler comes back on a short deal - maybe even the franchise one - but he's not getting anything near the Flacco deal at this point.


Just to be clear I'd also consider using the franchise tag as a huge deal- he's just demonstrably not worth that kind of money. I'm not suggesting McCown is or is not the guy, I'm just saying Cutler is around a league average or slightly worse guy in most years, and is not worth the kind of money he's going to get.

EDIT: But Moses, yeah, fair enough, you're probably right that he's not getting a 5 or 6 year deal from them.

   4535. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:20 PM (#4615287)
The only issue with the franchise tag is the cap hit, right? Yeah, a long term deal locks you up for a while, but it allows you to lessen the cap hit.

Honestly, I don't think the Bears have a choice unless they really are planning on drafting a first-round QB. McCown's done well enough, all things considered, but other than the callers on sports talk radio, I don't think anyone thinks Cutler isn't significantly better.

Given that, you more or less have to hang on to him until you have a proper replacement identified, don't you?
   4536. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:23 PM (#4615290)
#4529.

Seriously that does read like the Onion. Every possible way to make it annoying and expensive and filled with pointless rules. Why is walking and taking a limo or taxi such a crime against humanity that the NFL feels the need to ban them? Bizarre.

I hope* there is a massive once-a-century blizzard, so bad that TV can barely follow the action and almost no one can make it to the game.


* Unless my team (SF Giants) makes it, then I of course want whatever weather is best for them. Because that is how I roll :)
   4537. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:34 PM (#4615307)

* Unless my team (SF Giants) makes it, then I of course want whatever weather is best for them. Because that is how I roll :)


It's going to be hard for the San Francisco Giants to make the Super Bowl.
   4538. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:41 PM (#4615316)
It's going to be hard for the San Francisco Giants to make the Super Bowl.


But think of the narrative! Joe Buck's head would assplode.
   4539. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:49 PM (#4615327)
Speaking of franchise tags, there's a big and ugly fight coming if, as expected, the Saints use theirs on Jimmy Graham. They insist on listing him as a tight end, but in actual fact he plays almost exclusively wide receiver. The franchise contract for a wide receiver is nearly $3.5 million higher than for a tight end.

Neither Graham's agent nor the Saints are ignorant of any of these facts.
   4540. JJ1986 Posted: December 10, 2013 at 03:51 PM (#4615332)
Didn't someone else (Jared Cook?) challenge that recently and lose?
   4541. steagles Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:19 PM (#4615359)
Honestly, I don't think the Bears have a choice unless they really are planning on drafting a first-round QB. McCown's done well enough, all things considered, but other than the callers on sports talk radio, I don't think anyone thinks Cutler isn't significantly better.
if you look at the 3 weakest QBs to win a superbowl in the last 15 years, dilfer, johnson and flacco, they were all on cheap, cheap contracts that enabled their teams to spend money on other positions and build up the rest of the team.

if the choice is cutler or mccown, you probably take cutler because we're all morons. but that's not the choice on the table.

the choice on the table appears to be cutler v. mccown AND 15 million in caproom. if that's how it shakes out, i don't think there's any choice there whatsoever.
   4542. Kurt Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:26 PM (#4615369)
If they kept McCown, and he continues to play well, how long would it be until he costs as much as Cutler?
   4543. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:30 PM (#4615376)
Less than 10 miles from home, easily accessable by train? Nah. I'll be monitoring StubHub.


To travel and be sardined in with a shazillion people in order to watch a commercial-filled souped up hoopla of a game for hours in the frigid cold? No thanks.
   4544. stanmvp48 Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:34 PM (#4615378)
I saw Super Bowl IV, I believe it was, in person at Tulane Stadium. KC vs Minnesota. Somebody sold me a ticket for five bucks. I acutally sneaked into the Miama-Dallas game a few years later. Very cold.
   4545. bunyon Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:51 PM (#4615392)
I assumed there would be no tailgating because it will be 28 degrees and raining.
   4546. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 10, 2013 at 04:52 PM (#4615394)
If they kept McCown, and he continues to play well, how long would it be until he costs as much as Cutler?

Never. He's a 34yr old journeyman QB playing over his head. If Cutler leaves, he's a bridge to the next QB.

the choice on the table appears to be cutler v. mccown AND 15 million in caproom. if that's how it shakes out, i don't think there's any choice there whatsoever.

The Bears have a lot of veteran FAs or older guys not worth their contract anymore. They could theoretically clear enough cap room that the one year hit wouldn't be crippling if they kept Cutler for another year. Of course, at this point, you're not just paying Cutler $15mil. You're also starting another QB at least 2 of the games, so they have to take that into consideration. Long story short, I think Cutler isn't coming back and might not see the field again.
   4547. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 10, 2013 at 05:02 PM (#4615405)
Didn't someone else (Jared Cook?) challenge that recently and lose?


I think Cook and Jermichael Finley have both challenged that and lost.

How much money is Jimmy Graham worth? Gronk got what 55 million and he was already an liability health wise. Graham might be worth 70 million plus on the open market.
   4548. Kurt Posted: December 10, 2013 at 05:20 PM (#4615421)
Never. He's a 34yr old journeyman QB playing over his head. If Cutler leaves, he's a bridge to the next QB.


Right, I keep forgetting it's that same McCown. Thanks.
   4549. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4615432)
I don't think either one of those guys played WR at anywhere near the frequency Graham does. If you look at the numbers, the percentage of plays where the guy is split off the line as opposed to lined up beside a tackle, Cook and Finley were half-and-half. Graham is a wide receiver. I don't think the Saints have any evidence to support paying him as a tight end other than "we've always listed him as a tight end".
   4550. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 10, 2013 at 05:40 PM (#4615441)
Wasn't Colston also listed as a TE his rookie year? I remember that because he had TE eligibility in fantasy, but I can't remember if that only fantasy.
   4551. Don Geovany Soto (chris h.) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 06:13 PM (#4615475)
The Bears have a lot of veteran FAs or older guys not worth their contract anymore. They could theoretically clear enough cap room that the one year hit wouldn't be crippling if they kept Cutler for another year. Of course, at this point, you're not just paying Cutler $15mil. You're also starting another QB at least 2 of the games, so they have to take that into consideration. Long story short, I think Cutler isn't coming back and might not see the field again.


That seems unlikely, unless you know something I don't about his injury. If the Bears really part ways with him (and I don't think they will), someone will sign him and play him.
   4552. zack Posted: December 10, 2013 at 06:35 PM (#4615496)
Here's a question: All the players in the league are split from their teams, and a giant draft is held to refill the teams. At what pick number would you have to be drafting to not take a quarterback?
   4553. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 06:45 PM (#4615504)
zack: In that scenario I'd pick, off the top of my head, Rodgers, Brees, Wilson, Luck, Rivers, and Newton before any other position for sure. Brady and Peyton Manning (and Romo, I suppose) depend on how willing you are to take a guy who's only going to be around another year or two. Roethlisberger probably falls in that category as well (he's 31 going on 45, with all the punishment his body's taken over the years).

After that, I subscribe to the notion that if you don't have a really elite quarterback you're better off going cheap at the position and spending your cap space elsewhere. So I'd likely be ready to take Megatron or J.J. Watt as soon as those guys are off the board, around 10th or so. I could see the argument for doing so as high as 4th or 5th (after Rodgers, Luck, Wilson and maybe Brees).
   4554. Jon T. Posted: December 10, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4615511)
Probably seventh. I would go with Megatron or JJ Watt after Rodgers, Brady, Peyton,Brees, Wilson & Luck are gone
   4555. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 10, 2013 at 07:00 PM (#4615518)
That seems unlikely, unless you know something I don't about his injury. If the Bears really part ways with him (and I don't think they will), someone will sign him and play him.

I don't, but I don't think they're in a hurry to have him back. There's only 3 games left. They'll talk him up, but I think they're perfectly ok with McCown and will take their chances. I'll be surprised if he plays this week and I don't think they'll win out - they could lose this week in Cle but definitely will lose in Philly. So the last game might not matter, and then it doesn't really matter who starts.

I'm then also predicting they don't resign him. If he somehow comes back this week and they miraculously make the playoffs and even more miraculously win a playoff game, then I'll change my tune. But yes, he will be signed to be a starter. I actually like him, I just think they can live without him.
   4556. Dr. Vaux Posted: December 10, 2013 at 07:12 PM (#4615528)
What's so great about Andrew Luck?
   4557. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 08:19 PM (#4615559)
Luck is very good. The team around him is horrible.

He has too much Ben Roethlisberger in him, though. He's a big guy that enjoys contact. It'll use a quarterback's body up fast.
   4558. zenbitz Posted: December 10, 2013 at 08:45 PM (#4615569)
The first questions are:
Same salary cap?
All players are free agents or are we drafting their contacts?
Keeper or no?

   4559. Howie Menckel Posted: December 10, 2013 at 08:47 PM (#4615572)

"I imagine the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl will be done in Manhattan at various sites (e.g., Javitz Center, etc.). I should probably take a vacation during those two weeks and get the hell out of the city before a million loons descend on it."

Well, "Super Bowl Boulevard" will be Broadway from 34th to 48th Sts in midtown Manhattan from noon until 11 pm on the four days prior to the game, so keep that in mind. Media Day is the Tuesday before the game at the Prudential Center in Newark. The entire Meadowlands Sports Complex will be in "lockdown" for the entire week before the game. Nothing doing there until game day.

"There will be fewer than 13,000 parking spots available for fans. So do they let corporations use the other parking spaces for exhibits and mingling tents and whatnot? Where do the other parking spaces go?"

Well, the security perimeter is I think 300 feet all around, so that limits some. The TV satellite trucks also take up tons of room as well. Plus no buses or limos are allowed to leave until after the game, so they'll also take up a lot of space.

As for tailgating, if you have a parking pass you can pull your lawn chair out of the trunk, grab a brew, and eat your sandwich. But no, you can't fire up the Weber Grillmaster 100000, play cornhole, and set up a touch football game field by cordoning off 20 parking spaces with beer kegs at each corner.


   4560. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 10, 2013 at 09:07 PM (#4615583)
I'm not sure I'd take Luck or Newton before I'd take Colin Kaepernick. That might make me a huge homer but I think he's become a little bit underrated because of the receiver corps that he has had to work with this year. He has been without Crabtree and Manningham for almost the entire year, leaving them with Anquin Boldin as their only legitimate receiver. Boldin is a very good receiver with excellent toughness and hands and the ability to make catches when he is covered. Unfortunately, he's not a good option as number 1 receiver because he can't create any separation. It's not a surprise that Boldin has played much better since Crabtree has returned. The Niners have had to use Vernon Davis as their deep threat for most of this year because he's the only guy on the team that can get separation.

Kapernick has had 4 poor games this year. One against the Seahawks in Seattle, one against Indianapolis when Vernon Davis did not play, one against Carolina (an excellent defensive team) where Davis was out of the game after the first quarter, and against the Saints in New Orleans.

I would not call the last game against the Seahawks a poor one even though the stats weren't great. The Niners drew a lot of penalties against the Seahawks because of their passing game. They moved the ball well enough against a tough defense.

Kaepernick's QB rating since Crabtree has returned is over 100. That stat has its flaws but that's still a very good number. He doesn't pass for a huge amount of yards but that's the Niners system.

Luck has struggled significantly without Wayne. His QB rating since Reggie went down is 79.9.

A QB needs playmakers and Kap hasn't had that many in the passing game for most of the year.

   4561. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 10, 2013 at 09:35 PM (#4615597)
A QB also needs an offensive line, and Kaepernick's is vastly better than Luck's.

I don't mean to argue you're wrong; I'm not doing that. Just pointing out something valuable to the discussion. I might be persuaded to take Kaepernick before Newton, but definitely not before Luck.
   4562. zack Posted: December 11, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4615899)
The first questions are:
Same salary cap?
All players are free agents or are we drafting their contacts?
Keeper or no?


I'm not sure it matters, but what I'm asking is to put up on exactly how much more important the QB is than any other position, so let's say you know that the world is ending after the season.
   4563. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: December 11, 2013 at 01:13 PM (#4615910)
Then I draft the Rams' Terrell Brown, who is just over 400 pounds and the fattest player in the league. When the world is ending, you have to think about your food supplies first.
   4564. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 11, 2013 at 01:19 PM (#4615916)
Francesa's complaint this week is that Harbaugh doesn't let Kaepernick pass the ball enough. Apparently they got down in the red zone a few times vs Seattle and Harbaugh ordered all running plays right into the line (to hear Francesa tell it, probably with some exaggeration but his general point was clear).

I don't watch the 49ers enough to know whether CK has been throwing it this year, but his stats show relatively few pass attempts per game.
   4565. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: December 11, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4615993)
The Redskins have thankfully decided to do what they should have done a week ago and are benching Sideshow Bob and going with Cousins for the rest of the season. Let's hope he doesn't act like a petulant little child because of it.
   4566. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 11, 2013 at 02:43 PM (#4616016)
I don't watch the 49ers enough to know whether CK has been tarhrowing it this year, but his stats show relatively few pass attempts per game.

Kap has thrown the ball pretty much the same amount as Wilson so far this year. The Niners and Seahawks like to run the ball more than most but I think both teams are comfortable throwing the ball when they need or want to. As Crabtree gets healthier, I expect the Niners to run more.

The Niners had three possessions in the red zone last week, he threw a touchdown on one, he threw an interception in the end zone on another, and the last one the Niners ran the ball to run out the clock which was smart football.
   4567. zenbitz Posted: December 11, 2013 at 02:47 PM (#4616025)
I guess the problem with taking a JJ Watt, or Calvin Johnson is that (assuming 32 teams) you are going to get stuck with a bottom 12 QB. And while I think you can argue that Megatron might make an average QB into a very solid one, I kind of doubt he does much with a bad one.

I think you might have to go all the way down to the top 16 QBs to ensure you get an average one.

So: P. Manning,Brady, Rivers, (Healthy) Rodgers, Brees -- 1st tier
Wilson, Roethlisberger, Ryan, Stafford -- 2nd tier
Luck, Kaepernick, Foles, (Healthy) RGIII -- High risk/High Reward or futures picks
Cutler, Dalton, Campbell, Smith, (Healthy) Bradford, Eli Manning, Joe Flacco

This last group is a very mixed bag of past competence or good but flawed. They are not really in any order. That 20. Note that I am assuming that if you pick 20th in the 1st round you pick 20th in the 2nd, a "bounce back" draft where you pick 32nd and 33rd might change it.


   4568. zenbitz Posted: December 11, 2013 at 02:58 PM (#4616037)
I am a fan of Kaepernick - but possibly that is years of watching noodle armed QBs. He is certainly unpolished in lots of ways, but he's extremely talented and does not make rookie mistakes with the football. Of course he has a very good defense and a run game that demands attention.

He's very similar to Cam Newton and I think it would be difficult to chose between them in a Keeper league. Newton has better footwork and pocket presence, but throws way too many balls up for grabs. Kaeps' arm is just ridiculous.

The 49ers have a very weird offense. They are definitely run-first. It seems like the idea is to control the ball on the ground and take deep shots. This both hurts and helps Kaepernick's passing. It helps him on early downs because he is looking at 8-9 man fronts selling out to stop the Power OT run. It kills him because when it fails on early downs he faces many 3rd and long situations. Also for a while in the middle of the season they would run a lot of 22 (2 RB 2 TE sets) personnel and it's just really hard to run play action with 1 wideout in the NFL. Since Manningham (and now Crabtree) have returned they run more 21 and 12 which is significantly better.

I actually think the 49ers OL is highly overrated. It has never been very effective in pass blocking or power running. I think that the scheme makes it look better in the run game than it actually is (they have lots of extra blockers including the virtual QB on the read option). I think Harbaugh (and Greg Roman, the OC) were a bit of a victim of their own success this year - they benifitted from running an unusual run-first offense in a pass-first league. Now teams just sell out to stop the run and make Kaepernick beat them (FWIW, they did the same with Smith at QB). New Orleans actually played _5_ LBs against them most of the game (like a 3-5-3 or 4/4/3 front). Seattle plays basically a 6-2-3 against everyone but it's well suited to defending the Niners. What the niners need to do to have success in the play offs is very, very simple. All they need to do is get successful plays on dump off passes to the RBs. They had a couple good plays like this against Seattle, but at least 3 where the RB ran a bad route, or Kaepernick threw too hard or inaccurately.

They already punish you deep (something Alex Smith was not great at) if you blow a coverage or your DB loses a step in single coverage. It's very hard for teams to spy the QB run/scramble and cover the back leaking out into the flat. But these are plays Kaep has never had to make. Up until maybe a couple weeks ago he would just look to his first (maybe 2nd) read and fire a 60mph strike or pull the ball down and run.

According to football outsiders, Indianapolis has a MUCH better performing OL than SF this season. SF is near the bottom (as usual) adjusted sack rate and 30th in run blocking! Probably much of that is due to "defensive adjustments" (ie., them slamming the ball into 9 man fronts too much... ) but still it's not great. Of course it's extremely difficult to separate the OL from the scheme from the skill players.
   4569. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 11, 2013 at 04:47 PM (#4616155)
That took less than 24 hours before I was wrong:

Chicago Bears coach Marc Trestman said Wedneseday he expects Jay Cutler to be his starting quarterback Sunday in Cleveland.


(That typo is in there on the Trib. Good job, fellas)
   4570. jmurph Posted: December 11, 2013 at 05:32 PM (#4616207)
Well I can sort of see that- he's your starting QB THIS YEAR, so you're going to play him when healthy. As long as they're smart enough to let him walk in the off-season.
   4571. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 11, 2013 at 05:50 PM (#4616218)
I just don't see the rush in announcing it, especially since they also said they still want to see him practice all week without setbacks. They rushed him back the last time, when they probably would have been better off with McCown (though I don't blame them for not thinking that at that time) ahead of a less than 100% Cutler.
   4572. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 11, 2013 at 06:03 PM (#4616226)
Er, sorry, wrong thread.
   4573. Eddo Posted: December 11, 2013 at 06:52 PM (#4616286)
I just don't see the rush in announcing it, especially since they also said they still want to see him practice all week without setbacks. They rushed him back the last time, when they probably would have been better off with McCown (though I don't blame them for not thinking that at that time) ahead of a less than 100% Cutler.

Is it really rushed? Nearly every press conference for the past five weeks, Trestman has been reiterating that Cutler will start when he's healthy.

I agree that a 100% McCown might win the Lions game, though I am very confident a 100% Cutler is definitely a better choice than a 100% McCown.

And as much as I like Cutler, if he doesn't sign a very team-friendly deal, I'd be OK with McCown as the starter going into next year, provided a rookie for Trestman to groom is brought in.
   4574. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: December 12, 2013 at 11:24 PM (#4617221)
Tonight is starting to look more and more like another preview of Peyton's inevitable playoff choke job.
   4575. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 12, 2013 at 11:34 PM (#4617223)
The shanked kickoff by San Diego actually makes me wonder if every team shouldn't just kick it out of bounds. You lose a few yards but cut off the chance of a return for a TD. (On the other hand, you lose the chance to recover a turnover.)
   4576. JJ1986 Posted: December 12, 2013 at 11:42 PM (#4617225)
I don't know where to find returns-allowed-by-team stats, but there have been 7 kickoff return touchdowns this year. No way it's worth it.

edit: punting out of bounds all the time might be a more interesting strategy. It's not a penalty and punt return TDs are twice as common.
   4577. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: December 13, 2013 at 12:27 AM (#4617243)
Yep, Fairweather Peyton strikes again.
   4578. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 13, 2013 at 12:35 AM (#4617249)
The Patriots, despite all the injuries, are probably going to be the #1 seed in the AFC and I'm not really thinking that anyone in that conference is going to be good enough to beat them in New England.
   4579. jmurph Posted: December 13, 2013 at 09:27 AM (#4617311)
The Patriots, despite all the injuries, are probably going to be the #1 seed in the AFC and I'm not really thinking that anyone in that conference is going to be good enough to beat them in New England.


They continue to not be a great team, though. They could easily lose to Cincinnati (again) or Denver (should have lost the previous game) or KC.
   4580. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 13, 2013 at 09:33 AM (#4617316)
Don't be silly, KC's going to lose in Indianapolis in the first round like they always do.
   4581. Kurt Posted: December 13, 2013 at 10:58 AM (#4617366)
The shanked kickoff by San Diego actually makes me wonder if every team shouldn't just kick it out of bounds. You lose a few yards but cut off the chance of a return for a TD. (On the other hand, you lose the chance to recover a turnover.)


If that were a good idea the receiving team would just opt to take the five yard penalty and make the other team rekick.
   4582. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 13, 2013 at 11:30 AM (#4617399)
We saw the Chargers' receiver leap over a defender and into the end zone last night for a TD. We're seeing this a lot more lately, and we'll see it a lot more going forward. Everyone is wowed by it but it is simply a response by receivers to defenders who are going low on them more and more now.

The whining about how defenders can't go high now so they have to go low is silly. I still fail to see why it has to be legal for defenders to hurl themselves at players at all. I get that it's an effective way of tackling but defenders should be forced to wrap up the receivers. The game can be played that way, featuring the skill of the players, instead of violence.
   4583. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 15, 2013 at 03:25 PM (#4618427)
Colin Kaepernick is having a superb first half against the Bucs, a pretty good defense against the pass on the season prior to today(21 ints on the season, 82.4 QB rating against).

He's 11-13 for 148 yards and 2 TDs. One of the incompletions was downfield throw that he made on the run that Vernon Davis should have caught. Davis quit on the route and it ended up glancing off his hands.

He's been a different QB with Crabtree, which I don't think is that surprising.

In those 3.5 games:

63.8%, 833 yards, 8.9 yards/attempt, 7 TDs, 1 INT, 112.6 QB rating.
   4584. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 15, 2013 at 03:46 PM (#4618436)
Minnesota with Matt Cassel and a 3rd string RB is stomping Philly right now (and the Vikings top 3 CBs are out too). Sucks that the Lions had to Philly in the snow last week.
   4585. JJ1986 Posted: December 15, 2013 at 04:38 PM (#4618466)
Phil Simms wants Miami to punt the ball on 4th and 5, down 3, with less than 3 to play. No mention that he was wrong after they convert.
   4586. Joey B. has reignited his October #Natitude Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:23 PM (#4618482)
Eagles the best team in the NFC. That's some of the funniest #### I've ever heard in my life.
   4587. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:26 PM (#4618483)
This just in: The Giants still suck.

If there is a top QB prospect available to the Giants in the draft they should take him, scrap Coughlin and Eli, and start over.
   4588. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:28 PM (#4618486)
Joey, the Eagles would be my pick for Super Bowl champion... if I could be assured they will make the playoffs.
   4589. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:41 PM (#4618493)
Somehow I think the Seahawks or 49ers might find a way to beat a team that just lost by 18 points to the Vikings, but maybe I'm missing something deep and unknown, a mob connection or something.
   4590. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 15, 2013 at 05:45 PM (#4618496)
If you want a really sick longshot for the AFC rep in the Super Bowl, the Ravens finally got Pitta back and there aren't any super teams left in that conference.
   4591. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:04 PM (#4618508)
Somehow I think the Seahawks or 49ers might find a way to beat a team that just lost by 18 points to the Vikings, but maybe I'm missing something deep and unknown, a mob connection or something.


As I observed last week, the extent of your analysis is "What I saw last is what will come next."
   4592. JJ1986 Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:12 PM (#4618513)
What about the Eagles makes them better than the other NFC teams? Their point differential is much worse than Seattle/San Francisco/New Orleans/Carolina. If you only care about offense, they've scored less on offense than New Orleans and barely more than Seattle, despite many more possessions. Their pts/drive is 6th in the NFC, behind 5 playoff contenders and not even too far ahead of San Fran.
   4593. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:18 PM (#4618519)
Minnesota with Matt Cassel and a 3rd string RB is stomping Philly right now (and the Vikings top 3 CBs are out too). Sucks that the Lions had to Philly in the snow last week.

The Lions lost 34-20 and two of their three scores were on kick returns. To me that doesn't suggest a situation where they were unlucky not to prevail.
   4594. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:21 PM (#4618523)
What about the Eagles makes them better than the other NFC teams? Their point differential is much worse than Seattle/San Francisco/New Orleans/Carolina. If you only care about offense, they've scored less on offense than New Orleans and barely more than Seattle, despite many more possessions. Their pts/drive is 6th in the NFC, behind 5 playoff contenders and not even too far ahead of San Fran.


Nick Foles.

He's only gotten significant snaps in 9 games, which is why point differential in this case is meaningless, as is raw points scored by the team (jesus) and points/drive.
   4595. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:37 PM (#4618527)
Since the NFL doesn't provide a big enough sample size to demonstrate anything convincingly, here we are getting a rare glimpse at RDP's thought processes in a situation where he can't just say "There is insufficient data for what you think, therefore the opposite is right". There is no sufficient data to prove anything, and yet he still has an opinion.
   4596. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:50 PM (#4618532)
Since the NFL doesn't provide a big enough sample size to demonstrate anything convincingly, here we are getting a rare glimpse at RDP's thought processes in a situation where he can't just say "There is insufficient data for what you think, therefore the opposite is right". There is no sufficient data to prove anything, and yet he still has an opinion.


Quarterbacks don't go 20-1 in TD-INT, or have QB ratings of 120, over 9 games, by happenstance. This would be on the extreme edge of flukiness, on the order of a crappy hitter hitting 20 home runs over 9 games.

(And by "quarterbacks" here I mean the combination of Foles/Kelly, i.e. Foles in Kelly's offense.)

   4597. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 15, 2013 at 06:51 PM (#4618533)
The Lions lost 34-20 and two of their three scores were on kick returns. To me that doesn't suggest a situation where they were unlucky not to prevail.



Apparently the Eagles changed their cleats out to smaller spikes at halftime, Lions did not have any replacement cleats. And the Lions had 2 red zone turnovers.
   4598. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 15, 2013 at 07:04 PM (#4618539)
Somehow I think the Seahawks or 49ers might find a way to beat a team that just lost by 18 points to the Vikings, but maybe I'm missing something deep and unknown, a mob connection or something.

As I observed last week, the extent of your analysis is "What I saw last is what will come next."


News flash: Football is not a 1-on-1 game

Ray, you make observations every day that would send most people searching for a butterfly net, and this is one of them. Foles is terrific, but if he can't even lead them to beat the ####### Vikings with their playoff prospects in jeopardy, I doubt if he's likely to get them past Seattle or San Francisco.

EDIT: I won't even comment on your previously expressed thoughts on the relative strengths of the Seahawks and the Saints. I'll just direct your attention to the Rams-Saints game in progress: Rams, 24; Saints, 3.
   4599. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:05 PM (#4618557)
There is no sufficient data to prove anything


This describes pretty much everything in the NFL. The games are enjoyable but the longer I live the more I come to comprehend that the results--of plays, of games, of seasons--are nearly random. Probably entirely random once you adjust for the quality of the quarterback (if a reliable method for doing so were ever invented).
   4600. Greg K Posted: December 15, 2013 at 08:26 PM (#4618564)
Regarding the end of the WAS/ATL game:

What's the normal success rate on 2-PT conversions? If you treat over-time as a coin-flip (is that a rational thing to do?) Does it make sense to always go for two if you get a touchdown in the last 5-10 seconds or so rather than go to over-time? Or are 2-PT conversion rates lower than 50%? I suppose if the success rate is higher than 50% you should just always go for it?
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