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Tuesday, November 06, 2012

OT: NFL/NHL thread

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

steagles Posted: November 06, 2012 at 12:03 AM | 7987 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, nhl

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   4701. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:23 AM (#4619425)
ben is slowly slipping a bit every season. it doesn't help that his offensive line is crud but the larger issue is that he continues to be out of shape and is getting by on innate arm strength, experience and guts. why he can be tough on sunday and not be tough enough to get on the d8mn treadmill is a common affliction among strong armed quarterbacks. if he follows the favre path he will have an epiphany in another 2 years or so and finally get out of the size 42 pants.

   4702. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:41 AM (#4619433)
I don't think Favre was ever as routinely out of shape as Roethlisberger is. As I said a few posts ago, I think he has about two good years left in him and that's it. The Steelers would probably be wise to let him go this offseason rather than re-upping him on a megacontract that will extend their cap problems several more years.
   4703. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 17, 2013 at 10:39 AM (#4619460)
zeth

agreed. ben, quite frankly, is pretty flabby. gross really. for all of mike tomlin's hard edged rep he sure takes a hands off approach with his qb
   4704. cmd600 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:23 AM (#4619486)
I think both the Browns and Roethlisberger are somewhat better than you do.


They're going to end up a 4 win team, and you want to add the guy who is currently 19th in QBR. All while giving up their first round pick and a lot of cap space, two things they'll desperately need if they do want to win over the next two years. Going for it now seems incredibly shortsighted. Maybe, a big maybe, you'll sneak into the playoffs one of the next two years, but then what? You're going to be looking for a new young QB with the 20th pick in the draft instead of ~5th.
   4705. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:26 AM (#4619487)
Not really apropos, but I cannot believe ESPN has gotten its absurd QBR to catch on.

Harveys: Roethlisberger is well known to be a demanding prima donna behind the scenes, and the team's recent habit of acquiescing to his preferences probably has a lot to do with the fact they're now circling the drain.

Steelers fans have been among the most spoiled in sports. Let's take a very forgiving view of what constitutes an NFL team being bad--let's say a bad team is a team that loses 11+ games two years in a row. The Steelers haven't been bad for 43 years. There are Steelers fans who watched Sunday's game with their grandchild who have never rooted for a really bad team in their lives. The Steelers have won fewer than 6 games in a season exactly once since Richard Nixon was president, and that was a 5-11 season in 1989. The last time they won fewer than 5 games, they got the #1 pick and used it on Terry Bradshaw.

It's starting to look a lot like two generations of Steelers fans are about to find out what rooting for a bad team is like. The old guys they kept around too long are mostly gone now, they've had several years of very bad drafts, and it's time to pay the salary cap piper.
   4706. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:35 AM (#4619497)
So it looks like this is now the breakdown for playoff teams:

AFC:

In or nearly a lock:
DEN
KC
NE
IND
CIN
---
Good or reasonable chances to be in:
MIA
BAL
---
Long shots or virtually out:
SD
PIT
NYJ

I'd rank the super bowl contenders in order as DEN-KC-NE
   4707. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:36 AM (#4619501)
zeth

I have a fair number of contacts in the supply chain/business dept of Miami of oh and the stories of ben as a collegian are unflattering. maybe others can confirm but I am told that there are very few acknowledgements that ben was a football player at Miami despite all his success.

I have also been told by business folks in Pittsburgh that ben has routinely taken large groups of people to dinner at Pittsburgh restaurants, run up a big bill telling the waitstaff he is buying and then just walk out. supposedly the steelers have made good after the fact

all anecdotal. feel free to correct if inaccurate

but that's a lot of consistent history of being a drip. and this was shared before the ugly situation in Georgia.
   4708. DA Baracus Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4619506)
Not really apropos, but I cannot believe ESPN has gotten its absurd QBR to catch on.


Even ESPN doesn't use it as much as they did when they rolled out it. It's almost dead.
   4709. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:40 AM (#4619508)
NFC:

In or nearly a lock:
SEA
SF
NO
CAR
----
Good or reasonable chances to be in:
PHI
DAL
DET
CHI
----
Long shots:
GB
AZ

Super Bowl contenders ranked in order: Philly (assuming arguendo they make the playoffs), New Orleans, San Fran, Seattle, Carolina.
   4710. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:41 AM (#4619510)
If the Patriots beat the Ravens this weekend that will pretty much settle things. Indianapolis and Cincinnati will still have to sort out the 3 and 4 seeds, but the Broncos and Patriots will get the byes and the Chiefs and Dolphins will get the wild cards (the Dolphins finish up with the Bills and Jets so it's their own damn fault if they don't make the playoffs).

Harveys: Roethlisberger is probably the most notorious ######### pro sports has seen in a long time, unless you count hockey goons who are actually paid to be ##########. Everyone who's ever interacted with him, or seen him interact with anyone from a distance, will attest to it.
   4711. DA Baracus Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:42 AM (#4619511)
Ray, as an Eagles fan I beg you to stop touting them.
   4712. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:52 AM (#4619522)
Ray, as an Eagles fan I beg you to stop touting them.


I love the fact that the #1 SB contender is rated over the four teams that are locks to get in the playoffs.

And I say again, no team that lost as badly as the Eagles did to the 2013 Vikings should ever be considered the favorite to get to the SB. Sure they could get hot at the right time.

I would rate them Seattle, New Orleans, SF, Carolina, Winner of NFC East, Winner of NFC North.

As to the AFC, I have no idea.
   4713. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:55 AM (#4619523)
Harveys: Roethlisberger is probably the most notorious ######### pro sports has seen in a long time, unless you count hockey goons who are actually paid to be ##########. Everyone who's ever interacted with him, or seen him interact with anyone from a distance, will attest to it.


I went to law school in Pittsburgh and know people very close to the situation. Very, very close. This is basically true. I could cite specifics but I don't want to do so on a public board.

What Harvey describes about the restaurant situation - I don't have any inside information as to it w/r/t Ben, but it seems a common tactic of rich celebrities. I myself witnessed a prominent celebrity do this at a SNL cast party at a bar. He stiffed the waiter with the bill for about 12 members of his posse. Said, "We're good here, right?" Waiter is like, well, no, you have to pay your bill. Celeb puts his arm around the waiter's shoulder: "We're good." And he walks out.
   4714. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 11:58 AM (#4619526)
Yep. I know numerous people around Pittsburgh also and could tell you a half dozen horror stories. He's a disgusting waste of carbon, to be honest.
   4715. cmd600 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:14 PM (#4619538)
Not really apropos, but I cannot believe ESPN has gotten its absurd QBR to catch on.


That is apropos, because the only reason you brought it up is to discredit my statement. Fine, we'll give Ben the boost, and put him 11th, which is his ranking in DVOA and football-ref's adjusted net yards/attempt. There seems to be general agreement that he'll continue to slip the next two years before not being useful anymore. We're left looking at a quite mediocre QB, asked to lead a 4-12 team into the playoffs. It's feasible, but that seems like a bad bet, even before we subtract out the loss of the pick and cap space.
   4716. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:19 PM (#4619545)
I do think there is some credence to the believe that calvin Johnson's otherworldly talents has made Stafford sloppy in his technique.

it's reflective of both coaching and a player not committed to his craft. if his footwork didn't stink, if mechanics were consistent the player would not be so erratic play to play.

I understand that various metrics grade him out highly but when you watch the player you see a strong arm and a Hercules wide receiver compensating for lots of negatives. it's very similar to favre his first 2 seasons in green bay. he had sterling sharpe and a cannon right arm so Holmgren's coaching seemed to be white noise. it took the threat of a benching and being replaced by mark brunell that pushed the player to get better with the basics
   4717. Joey B.: posting for the kids of northeast Ohio Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:19 PM (#4619546)
By the way from watching SF/TB... I think it's quite possible that the difference between Colin Kaepernick and Mike Glennon is basically running ability and coaching. Or and tattoos.

You need to get your eyes checked bro. Kaepernick probably has the strongest arm of anyone in the league. At worst, it's a tossup between him and Jay Cutler. He came within about ten yards of winning the big one in his second year as a pro and first year as a starter, and has about as much upside potential as any young quarterback in the league.

Seriously, did you actually see the 52 yard touchdown pass he made to Vernon Davis? Mike Glennon couldn't throw the ball like that if his life depended on it.
   4718. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:26 PM (#4619555)
cmd600: No, I really didn't bring it up to discredit your statement. I'm just genuinely surprised people actually cite QBR. Your argument is as worthy of BTF's consideration as mine or any other, though I disagree with you.

Harveys: Stafford has a good arm but nowhere near Favre's level. Favre had an all-time arm.

For clarity, when I say 'arm' I'm combining strength and accuracy. I don't believe accuracy can be taught, and the gains you get from practice are marginal (though of course at the NFL level marginal gains can be the difference between starting every week and hanging onto a practice squad for a year or two). You either have it or you don't.
   4719. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:28 PM (#4619560)
If Tom Coughlin is going to blame some of his players for not giving an honest effort during the game then he should name them, or else STFU.

Same goes for Rolle.
   4720. HMS Moses Taylor Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:29 PM (#4619561)
DET
CHI


If the Bears win out, they're in. The downhill race to the top of the NFC North has been embarrassing to watch, so the odds of the Bears winning out is very low. The fact that the Lions have lost the games they've lost over the last month and not clinched while being almost perfectly healthy (at least relative to Chicago and GB) should cost Schwartz his job (and hell, they might be better off if they fired him even if they make the playoffs).

I don't think the Eagles are that good either, but their great running game against the Bears awful run defense should lead to a blowout. Foles shouldn't have to do anything to win this week. It's amazing to watch coaches go away from running against the Bears after getting huge gains almost every time. I think Kelly should be able to avoid the temptation this week. I can only hope Lance Briggs can come back - not that he's a savior, but he'll help a lot, and it's amazing how everyone has forgotten about him amid the Cutler/McCown stuff (by the timeline of his injury when he first got hurt, he should have already been back).
   4721. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:41 PM (#4619570)
If the Patriots beat the Ravens this weekend that will pretty much settle things. Indianapolis and Cincinnati will still have to sort out the 3 and 4 seeds, but the Broncos and Patriots will get the byes and the Chiefs and Dolphins will get the wild cards (the Dolphins finish up with the Bills and Jets so it's their own damn fault if they don't make the playoffs).

But if the Ravens win their last two games, they win the AFC North, and if Miami also beats Buffalo and the Jets, the Bengals are out of it completely. In a 3 way tie at 10-6, the Ravens have the tiebreaker over both Cincinnati and Miami, and Miami will have it over the Bengals. But all three teams have control of their own destiny.
   4722. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:43 PM (#4619571)
I don't think the Eagles are that good either, but their great running game against the Bears awful run defense should lead to a blowout.


The Eagles are averaging 30 points a game for Foles's starts, and whatever one might feel about traditional QB rating as a measure of a QB (it's obviously of limited utility), it DOES measure teamwide passing offense pretty well, and Foles has a 117 rating. Add to that McCoy who is averaging 5 yards a carry with 1300 yards on the ground and another 500 receiving (the latter of course wrapped into QB rating), and you've got a dynamic offense.
   4723. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 12:47 PM (#4619575)
Andy, CIN was 93% to make the playoffs before the Monday night game. Yes, insert "it's over" jokes here, but they would really have to have things break badly against them to fall out of it.
   4724. DA Baracus Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:00 PM (#4619587)
I don't think the Eagles are that good either, but their great running game against the Bears awful run defense should lead to a blowout.


The Bears excellent passing offense against the Eagles crap pass defense makes that unlikely.
   4725. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:01 PM (#4619590)
Andy, CIN was 93% to make the playoffs before the Monday night game. Yes, insert "it's over" jokes here, but they would really have to have things break badly against them to fall out of it.

Not really. All they'd have to do is to lose in week 17 to the same team that beat them in week 10, and have the Ravens beat the Patriots in Baltimore while the Dolphins sweep the Bills and Jets. Even if they overcome the heroics of future HoFer Matt Cassell and manage to beat the Vikings this Sunday, that wouldn't let them off the hook.

Of course the Bengals should rightly be favored at home against the Ravens, but that 93% at this point seems wildly exaggerated.
   4726. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:07 PM (#4619595)
Andy, CIN was 93% to make the playoffs before the Monday night game. Yes, insert "it's over" jokes here, but they would really have to have things break badly against them to fall out of it.

Not really. All they'd have to do is to lose in week 17 to the same team that beat them in week 10, and have the Ravens beat the Patriots in Baltimore while the Dolphins sweep the Bills and Jets.


I rest my case.

Of course the Bengals should rightly be favored at home against the Ravens, but that 93% at this point seems wildly exaggerated.


Well, it clearly adjusted down after last night's Ravens win. Maybe to 85% or so - the numbers I was looking at haven't been updated yet. But my point remains.
   4727. Kurt Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:14 PM (#4619601)
Will the Eagles even try to win on Sunday? If Dallas beats the Redskins, the Dallas/Philly game is for the NFC East no matter what the Eagles do against the Bears. Seems like there's at least a chance the Eagles would rest some of their starters.
   4728. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:16 PM (#4619605)
But if the Ravens win their last two games, they win the AFC North, and if Miami also beats Buffalo and the Jets, the Bengals are out of it completely.


For accuracy's sake, the Bengals would be in with a win over the Vikes and a Buffalo win over NE in Week 17.

   4729. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:18 PM (#4619607)
Will the Eagles even try to win on Sunday? If Dallas beats the Redskins, the Dallas/Philly game is for the NFC East no matter what the Eagles do against the Bears. Seems like there's at least a chance the Eagles would rest some of their starters.


Dallas could easily lose to the Redskins with Cousins quarterbacking (and could well lose no matter the quarterback). So to me it makes no sense for the Eagles to give up the game against the Bears.
   4730. DA Baracus Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:22 PM (#4619612)
Will the Eagles even try to win on Sunday?


They still have the 3 seed to play for and Kelly's already stated he will not rest starters.
   4731. Kurt Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:33 PM (#4619621)
Dallas could easily lose to the Redskins with Cousins quarterbacking (and could well lose no matter the quarterback). So to me it makes no sense for the Eagles to give up the game against the Bears.


The Eagles play the Sunday night game and would know how Dallas did.

Kelly's already stated he will not rest starters.


Okay, thanks.
   4732. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:36 PM (#4619622)
Andy, CIN was 93% to make the playoffs before the Monday night game. Yes, insert "it's over" jokes here, but they would really have to have things break badly against them to fall out of it.

Not really. All they'd have to do is to lose in week 17 to the same team that beat them in week 10, and have the Ravens beat the Patriots in Baltimore while the Dolphins sweep the Bills and Jets.

I rest my case.


Among the three contenders we've been mentioning, there are six remaining games. If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.

The Bengals will likely be favored by about a touchdown in that finale if the playoffs are on the line, but I don't think that 7 point favorites necessarily win 85% of the time. Neither of these teams has exactly shown itself to be invincible.

-------------------------------------------------

For accuracy's sake, the Bengals would be in with a win over the Vikes and a Buffalo win over NE in Week 17.

Point taken, though since that game will be in Foxboro, a Buffalo win would definitely be an upset if a playoff spot were up for grabs.
   4733. Every Inge Counts Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:38 PM (#4619627)
Schwartz has to go. We actually won less games with Matt Stafford than the Packers have with Matt Flynn at QB and the Bears with Josh McCown. Some of it is on the players, but at this point the same mistakes every week hold the Lions back. I don't think Stafford is that terrible, but I don't think he is living up to his potential. Really want to hire the best offensive guy out there (maybe someone like Aaron Kromer or Tom Clements) and go from there.
   4734. zenbitz Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:39 PM (#4619628)
BTW I am drinker of the Kaepernick-aid. I have been watching him carefully since the "can't go through his progressions" stink and I see improvement week to week.
I was complimenting Glennon who I think has a good arm and is good in the pocket. But he has a bad team and coach who insist on running it.

I think Philly is a good offensive team with a suspect defense. I think they have a punchers chance at home against Car or SF, but I wouldn't call them favorites. I would love to see them beat Seattle in Seattle, but they will probably have to go through New Orleans first (not to mention the 1st round). That game might have 100 points scored. I think both Carolina and SF have a chance to beat Seattle in Seattle. Niners will have to figure out their glacial playcalling though. Not sure about NO, but I didn't think they would blow out Carolina in the Superdome either. They need to figure out a way not to get shredded by Seattle's balanced offense.

Foles was not awe-inspiring against the Cardinals who have the best defense he has faced (he did win though, mostly thanks to 3 turnovers).

AFC it seems like all my info is weeks out of date. Denver is probably the best team but anyone who can keep up with their offense has a shot. KC has looked bad against teams with real QBs.... last 2 weeks could be telling if the Chiefs are still fighting for the Division and the #1 seed, but the Broncos finish at the Texans and Raiders... somehow this is only a 73% chance of winning the division; I guess home field matters there.




   4735. cmd600 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:43 PM (#4619630)
If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.

The Bengals will likely be favored by about a touchdown in that finale if the playoffs are on the line, but I don't think that 7 point favorites necessarily win 85% of the time. Neither of these teams has exactly shown itself to be invincible.


You're also putting all the betting favorites at 100% to win. If we take the four critical games here, and place the odds at 75% for the favorite in the first three, and make BAL@CIN a 50-50, you're left with the Ravens at ~20%, and that's being overly generous with the oddsmaking.
   4736. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:44 PM (#4619633)
Among the three contenders we've been mentioning, there are six remaining games. If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.

The Bengals will likely be favored by about a touchdown in that finale if the playoffs are on the line, but I don't think that 7 point favorites necessarily win 85% of the time. Neither of these teams has exactly shown itself to be invincible.


None of the games are guarantees. If the other 5 games are 90% propositions, and the Bengals are 60% to win, that's about a 75% chance of them making the playoffs. And there's no way Baltimore is 90% to win over New England. If that game is only 75% for Baltimore, there's an 80% chance Cincinnati is in.
   4737. Kurt Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:48 PM (#4619634)
The Bengals will likely be favored by about a touchdown in that finale if the playoffs are on the line, but I don't think that 7 point favorites necessarily win 85% of the time.


They don't have to be an 85% favorite in that game to have an 85% chance of the playoffs, unless you think Baltimore over New England and Miami over Buffalo and the Jets are all 100%.

Edit: Cokes all around.
   4738. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 01:55 PM (#4619636)
To calculate it more accurately, right now Miami is -2.5 over Buffalo and Baltimore is -2.5 over New England. That's about 55%. Say Miami is 90% over the Jets, and Cincinnati barely needs to be favored to be 85%.
   4739. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 02:04 PM (#4619639)
If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.

The Bengals will likely be favored by about a touchdown in that finale if the playoffs are on the line, but I don't think that 7 point favorites necessarily win 85% of the time. Neither of these teams has exactly shown itself to be invincible.


You're also putting all the betting favorites at 100% to win. If we take the four critical games here, and place the odds at 75% for the favorite in the first three, and make BAL@CIN a 50-50, you're left with the Ravens at ~20%, and that's being overly generous with the oddsmaking.


-------------------------------------------------

None of the games are guarantees. If the other 5 games are 90% propositions, and the Bengals are 60% to win, that's about a 75% chance of them making the playoffs. And there's no way Baltimore is 90% to win over New England. If that game is only 75% for Baltimore, there's an 80% chance Cincinnati is in.

Both comments mathematically taken in terms of likelihood (and I'll throw in Ray's 85%), but that still means that there need be only one upset for Baltimore and Miami to displace Cincy in the postseason.

EDIT: Ravens rooting interest cheerfully acknowledged.
   4740. zenbitz Posted: December 17, 2013 at 02:21 PM (#4619643)
Both AdvancedFootballStats and FootballOutsiders do these calculations more precisely every week. They do use their internal rating systems but that's probably as good as vegas or assuming 50-50 +/- home field.
FO had Bengals at 94% before the Ravens won.

It's not the number of upsets that matter, it's the number of combinations of w/l that result in the Ravens making it.
   4741. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 02:31 PM (#4619646)
FO has Cincinnati at 83% to win the division; Baltimore at 17%. (plus other scenarios where Miami loses at least once.)
   4742. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: December 17, 2013 at 02:39 PM (#4619651)
They're going to end up a 4 win team, and you want to add the guy who is currently 19th in QBR. All while giving up their first round pick and a lot of cap space, two things they'll desperately need if they do want to win over the next two years. Going for it now seems incredibly shortsighted. Maybe, a big maybe, you'll sneak into the playoffs one of the next two years, but then what? You're going to be looking for a new young QB with the 20th pick in the draft instead of ~5th.


You're not counting how many appearances on PTI's A block they'll make!!
   4743. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:03 PM (#4619677)
Among the three contenders we've been mentioning, there are six remaining games. If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.


The whole thing is an upset, Andy. You can't expect to come out on the right side of each of a string of games just because only one of the individual games would be an "upset." There's a reason it's hard to win parlays. And I don't know why people on this board seem not to understand the "Any Given Sunday" concept. "Oh, Favorite is not going to lose to Underdog." Since when?
   4744. Greg K Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:04 PM (#4619680)
There's a reason it's hard to win parlays. And I don't know why people on this board seem not to understand the "Any Given Sunday" concept.

I think you're thinking of "The Silver Linings Playbook".

#cinemahumour
   4745. Kurt Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4619686)
And I don't know why people on this board seem not to understand the "Any Given Sunday" concept.


"People"? Does Andy have a leprechaun in his pocket?
   4746. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:10 PM (#4619687)
Both comments mathematically taken in terms of likelihood (and I'll throw in Ray's 85%), but that still means that there need be only one upset for Baltimore and Miami to displace Cincy in the postseason.


But this does not turn on how many "upsets" there are but on how many outcome sets the Ravens would need to go their way.
   4747. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:32 PM (#4619709)
"People"? Does Andy have a leprechaun in his pocket?


We'll define "people" to encompass "everyone who would be shocked if Seattle loses at home."

   4748. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:35 PM (#4619712)
Among the three contenders we've been mentioning, there are six remaining games. If you can trust the betting odds, only one upset---Baltimore at Cincinnati---would be required for my scenario to play out.

The whole thing is an upset, Andy. You can't expect to come out on the right side of each of a string of games just because only one of the individual games would be an "upset." There's a reason it's hard to win parlays. And I don't know why people on this board seem not to understand the "Any Given Sunday" concept. "Oh, Favorite is not going to lose to Underdog." Since when?


Of course I realize the relative unlikelihood of a string of favorites winning all their games**, and then having one 7-point underdog (the Ravens vs. Cinci) pull an upset. But when you've got a strong (non-financial) rooting interest in the outcome, you select your cliches carefully, and my current cliche is "We've got to take it one game at a time".

Hey, it worked last year. I'll take six small sample sizes in a row any day.

**Though it's hard to beat an old boss of mine for stupidity when it comes to betting. This guy owned a string of book shops and was my late bookie's favorite fish. His typical betting strategy consisted of looking at the then-14 game schedule for about 15 seconds and then saying "Gimme 500 each on all the dogs." I used to sneak up behind the bookie in his later years and whisper that line in his ears, just to share a laugh with him.
   4749. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 17, 2013 at 03:40 PM (#4619714)
"People"? Does Andy have a leprechaun in his pocket?


Just happy to see you.

I think you're thinking of "The Silver Linings Playbook".


Heh. Pretty good movie. Looking forward to seeing American Hustle.

We'll define "people" to encompass "everyone who would be shocked if Seattle loses at home."


Surprised? Yes. Shocked? No. Overjoyed? Absolutely.
   4750. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:16 PM (#4619758)
So with all these micro-odds calculations being thrown around, what would the current odds be against Rambo's Ray's Eagles making it past the Seahawks/Niners/Panthers/Saints etc. and advancing to the Super Bowl? What do AdvancedFootballStats and FootballOutsiders have to say about those percentages?
   4751. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:21 PM (#4619764)
So with all these micro-odds calculations being thrown around, what would the current odds be against Rambo's Ray's Eagles making it past the Seahawks/Niners/Panthers/Saints etc. and advancing to the Super Bowl? What do AdvancedFootballStats and FootballOutsiders have to say about those percentages?


The odds are not in the Eagles' favor to make the Super Bowl -- as I freely acknowledged when I said that I was picking the Eagles "amongst the NFC field" -- but that is true for any team you care to name.

The question is who has the best chance, not who is likely to make the Super Bowl, because no one team is.
   4752. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:37 PM (#4619786)
So which team has the better chance of making it to the Super Bowl, the Eagles or the Ravens? The Eagles have the easier road to get to the postseason, but the Ravens would be facing easier competition if they got there.

Or to rank the teams by their updated PFB-Ref SRS's:

Ravens (-0.7) 2 remaining opponents:
New England 3.5
at Cincinnati 4.4

Eagles (-0.6) remaining opponents:
Chicago -0.5
at Dallas 0.0

Ravens most likely potential postseason opponents**:
Denver 10.4
Kansas City 7.4
Patriots 3.5
Colts 2.3
Dolphins 1.3
**Assuming they eliminated Cinci to get there

Eagles most likely potential postseason opponents:
Seattle 13.7
San Francisco 10.3
Panthers 9.4
Saints 7.9
Bears -0.5

So what do the oddsmakers say?
   4753. Bitter Mouse Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:40 PM (#4619790)
So which team has the better chance of making it to the Super Bowl, the Eagles or the Ravens?


Neither. If I had to pick one, I would go Ravens, because the AFC seems weaker and more topsy turvy than the NFC this year.
   4754. JJ1986 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:42 PM (#4619792)
FO has the Eagles with a 4.6% chance of making the SB; Ravens at 1.7%. The Eagles are also more likely to make it through if they make the playoffs - about 6.5% of the time as opposed to 4% for the Ravens. I'd guess that's because they have Baltimore as a thoroughly mediocre team.
   4755. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 17, 2013 at 04:48 PM (#4619800)
FO has the Eagles with a 4.6% chance of making the SB; Ravens at 1.7%. The Eagles are also more likely to make it through if they make the playoffs - about 6.5% of the time as opposed to 4% for the Ravens. I'd guess that's because they have Baltimore as a thoroughly mediocre team.


It probably has something to do with the fact that the Eagles are more likely to be playing one (or even two) of those games at home.

   4756. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:29 PM (#4619823)
FO has the Eagles with a 4.6% chance of making the SB; Ravens at 1.7%. The Eagles are also more likely to make it through if they make the playoffs - about 6.5% of the time as opposed to 4% for the Ravens. I'd guess that's because they have Baltimore as a thoroughly mediocre team.

But according to pfb-ref's SLS, they're both in negative territory, and the Ravens barely more so (Balt -0.7, Philly -0.6). Neither of them have much of a shot at all of reaching the SB, but the hurdles in the NFC postseason are going to be a lot more formidable than those in the AFC. There's no AFC team as strong as the Seahawks or the Niners, now that Crabtree's back.

-----------------------------------------------------

It probably has something to do with the fact that the Eagles are more likely to be playing one (or even two) of those games at home.

But so would the Ravens, since if they got into the playoffs it'd be by beating out Cincinnati for the AFC North title in a tiebreaker.

BTW what happens if a conference champion with a worse record meets a wild card team with a better record in the 2nd or 3rd round? Does the conference champ always maintain the HFA no matter what the records? I know they do in the first round.
   4757. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:33 PM (#4619827)
BTW what happens if a conference champion with a worse record meets a wild card team with a better record in the 2nd or 3rd round? Does the conference champ always maintain the HFA no matter what the records? I know they do in the first round.


You mean division champ. Yes, the division champ is the host. It happened in 2009 (Division Champ and 9-7 Cardinals hosted Wild Card and 9-6-1 Iggles).


But so would the Ravens, since if they got into the playoffs it'd be by beating out Cincinnati for the AFC North title in a tiebreaker.


No, they can still get in as a wild card, which the Eagles can't. Moreover, the Eagles are the 3 seed if they win out, and the 3 seed is more likely to host the championship game than the 4, which is the Ravens' most likely slot if they happen to take the division.
   4758. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:37 PM (#4619831)
There's no AFC team as strong as the Seahawks or the Niners, now that Crabtree's back.


DEN and KC have really impressive run differentials, nearly the same as these other teams.
   4759. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:42 PM (#4619834)
Upgrading from an average QB to an elite one makes an enormous difference, and upgrading from a terrible one to even a Cassell can make an enormous difference depending on the circumstance. I suspect the difference between the 16th best QB and, say, the 27th best one is overstated (in terms of how you'd rank them preseason, not by stats).


Why just look how much better the Chiefs have gotten upgrading to a competent QB like Alex Smith from the terribly incompetent...Matt Cassel (in fairness he was hurt most of last year).
   4760. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:43 PM (#4619835)
(For reference)

Point Differentials:

Seattle: 175
San Francisco: 121

Denver: 163
Kansas City: 144
   4761. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 05:45 PM (#4619837)
DEN and KC have really impressive run differentials, nearly the same as these other teams.


Haven't they also played two of the easiest schedules though?
   4762. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 07:07 PM (#4619894)
Haven't they also played two of the easiest schedules though?

KC hasn't played any winning teams other than Dallas in the second week, and Denver, who beat them both times. They got the soft schedule because of their sorry record last year.
   4763. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 07:26 PM (#4619898)
KC hasn't played any winning teams other than Dallas in the second week, and Denver, who beat them both times. They got the soft schedule because of their sorry record last year.


Nah, that only affects two games (they drew the Bills and Browns because of their bad record rather than, say, the Dolphins and Bengals). The other 14 are set in stone; they (and the other AFC West teams) just happened the draw the pathetic AFC South and NFC East this year.
   4764. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 17, 2013 at 07:39 PM (#4619909)
they (and the other AFC West teams) just happened the draw the pathetic AFC South and NFC East this year.

Against whom the Chiefs are 7 and 0 so far, and the Broncos are 6 and 1. That's most of that point differential right there.
   4765. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 07:49 PM (#4619915)
Against whom the Chiefs are 7 and 0 so far, and the Broncos are 6 and 1. That's most of that point differential right there.


So I guess the summary point is that Peyton Manning sucks as does every team in the AFC, and it is only the NFC that houses the real teams.
   4766. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 17, 2013 at 08:06 PM (#4619920)
So I guess the summary point is that Peyton Manning sucks as does every team in the AFC, and it is only the NFC that houses the real teams.


Remove the part about Peyton Manning and that's not far from correct. I'm unconvinced that the Patriots are better than the Cardinals or the Bears. The NFC is much better than the AFC right now.
   4767. zenbitz Posted: December 17, 2013 at 08:39 PM (#4619933)
PFR corrects point differential for strength of schedule and puts the Niners ~= Broncos with KC about equal to NO. Carolina in between. Seattle way ahead.
   4768. Jay Z Posted: December 17, 2013 at 09:06 PM (#4619943)
Good or reasonable chances to be in:
PHI
DAL
DET
CHI
----
Long shots:
GB
AZ


Packers will be in if they win out. As will the Bears. If both GB and Det win this weekend, I think the Lions will be eliminated.
   4769. Russlan is fond of Dillon Gee Posted: December 18, 2013 at 12:23 AM (#4620014)
The Lions need both the Packers and Bears to lose at least once. Since they play each other in the last week, the Lions are out if they both win this weekend.
   4770. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 18, 2013 at 12:05 PM (#4620139)
Revised playoff odds from FO has Baltimore at 41% to make the playoffs and Cincinnati at 94%. Andy: Baltimore isn't fighting with Cincinnati for a playoff spot; they're fighting with Miami. Miami is the only other legitimate playoff contender in the AFC, at 62%.

(Pittsburgh is at 1% and San Diego is at 3%. I think the Jets are still technically alive but in the 50,000 simulations Football Outsiders did, the Jets made the playoffs 0 times, from what I can tell. Unless they made it once or twice but it's showing up as 0% anyway on the roundoff.)

Baltimore could win the division (17%) but their better path to the playoffs is via the wild card (24%). But again, Cincinnati would have to really have things break badly for them to fall out of it. They are 83% to win the division and failing that they'll most likely get a wild card (11%).
   4771. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 18, 2013 at 12:09 PM (#4620141)
In the NFC, as we know, it's division or bust for PHI/DAL (PHI is 70% to win it) and CHI/DET/GB (60% for CHI and 20% for both DET and GB).

AZ is the only other NFC team with a shot at the playoffs: 12%.
   4772. Random Transaction Generator Posted: December 18, 2013 at 12:30 PM (#4620159)
I remember seeing a graphic before the Jaguars game that said they were still mathematically in the playoff run, but to do so would require a list of seven different things to happen.
It was Jaguars win every remaining game, three teams lose every remaining game, two teams to lose two specific remaining games (of three), and another team to win one specific game.
It was ridiculous, but I was smiling because there was some stat guy who figured it out in and was able to show off his hard work like that.

Edit:
I found the graphic they showed on the screen.
   4773. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 18, 2013 at 01:52 PM (#4620214)
Against whom the Chiefs are 7 and 0 so far, and the Broncos are 6 and 1. That's most of that point differential right there.

So I guess the summary point is that Peyton Manning sucks as does every team in the AFC, and it is only the NFC that houses the real teams.


All it says is that point differentials aren't context free. I'm sure if KC switched to the Big Ten they'd have even more impressive stats.

And no, I'm not equating the AFC with the Big Ten, though I'm sure that'll be your next "interpretation" of what I'm saying.

---------------------------------------------------------

Revised playoff odds from FO has Baltimore at 41% to make the playoffs and Cincinnati at 94%. Andy: Baltimore isn't fighting with Cincinnati for a playoff spot; they're fighting with Miami. Miami is the only other legitimate playoff contender in the AFC, at 62%.

Baltimore is fighting both of those teams, but if both they and the Dolphins win their last two games, it'll be the Bengals who are out of the playoffs because of the head-to-head results.

Assuming all three teams win their non-head to head games, here's what happens:

Baltimore beats Cincinnati: Baltimore wins the division since it would have beaten Cincinnati twice. Miami gets the wild card since it beat the Bengals in their earlier matchup.

Cincinnati beats Baltimore: Cincinnati wins the division outright, Miami gets the wild card on the basis of its 10-6 record to Baltimore's 9-7.

Of course if any of these three teams lose any of their other games, it becomes much more complicated, but those are the two basic scenarios. But in any event, if Baltimore and Miami end with identical records, Baltimore wins the tiebreaker by virtue of its earlier win over Miami.
   4774. zenbitz Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:24 PM (#4621045)
Interesting differences between FO and ANS (advancednflstats) on playoff probabilities:

FO has 62:41 Miami/Baltimore, ANS has 78:24 (above 100 because of cincinnati missing ca. 5% of the time

FO has 70:30 PHL/DAL, ANS has 76:24 (that's very close)

FO has 60:20:20 CHI:GB:DET, ANS has 50:30:20

FO has NO:CAR for the division at 50:50, ANS has it at 70:30.

FO has ARZ at 11%, ANS at 14%, with the extra % taken from Carolina

FO also has the Seahawks as the 3rd best team overall EVER since 1991 (as far back as they have stats, through 14 games), although there is a big group near +40% DVOA - they are tied with the 1995 Niners.
Seattle had the 6th highest DVOA ever last year at +38.7%.
   4775. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 19, 2013 at 03:45 PM (#4621075)
Interesting differences between FO and ANS (advancednflstats) on playoff probabilities:

FO has 62:41 Miami/Baltimore, ANS has 78:24 (above 100 because of cincinnati missing ca. 5% of the time


Without quibbling over the percentage differences, the (much) softer remaining Miami schedule makes them a definite favorite over the Ravens.

FO also has the Seahawks as the 3rd best team overall EVER since 1991 (as far back as they have stats, through 14 games), although there is a big group near +40% DVOA - they are tied with the 1995 Niners. Seattle had the 6th highest DVOA ever last year at +38.7%.

Seattle's a hell of a team, and if they continue their level of play through the Super Bowl they'll certainly be in the discussion for the greatest single season team of the past two decades. They've already set some sort of a record for fewest adjusted passing yards allowed for any team going back to when records like that are first available.
   4776. zenbitz Posted: December 19, 2013 at 04:48 PM (#4621156)

As a 49er fan, I was thinking - what areas is SF better than Seattle? They are very similar teams in many ways. I came up with SF has a better TE and MLB(s). It's kind of hard to compare a 4-3 to a 3-4, but certainly the interior DL and edge pass rushers of SEA are comparable to SFs. Seattle also rotates it's DL and SF generally only swaps out a nose or OLB. I am sure one could argue that SEA would play Aldon or Justin Smith over some of their guys, some of the time, but it's hardly a clear superiority.

The SF OL has a better rep but I am not sure it's significantly better. The WRs seem like a small (with Crabtree healthy) edge to Seattle. Special teams are pretty close, with SF having slightly better kickers but no returner like Tate.

And SF is a pretty damn good team.
   4777. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 19, 2013 at 06:19 PM (#4621255)
No game tonight?
   4778. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 19, 2013 at 06:31 PM (#4621269)
No game tonight?

There's probably some sort of a "Sani-Flush Toilet Bowl" going on somewhere that the NFL is contractually forbidden to go up against. Those NCAA contract lawyers weren't born yesterday.
   4779. JJ1986 Posted: December 22, 2013 at 01:52 PM (#4622508)
FOX is showing me Vikings at Bengals even though I'm nowhere near either of those markets. I don't see how that's the choice over NO/CAR.
   4780. Kurt Posted: December 22, 2013 at 01:59 PM (#4622515)
FOX is showing me Vikings at Bengals even though I'm nowhere near either of those markets. I don't see how that's the choice over NO/CAR.


You're probably in or near the market of one of their divisional rivals. Here in DC we get an awful lot of Eagles, Giants and Cowboys.
   4781. A Fatty Cow That Need Two Seats Posted: December 22, 2013 at 02:08 PM (#4622520)
   4782. Ray (RDP) Posted: December 22, 2013 at 02:23 PM (#4622523)
I'm getting the Patsies at 4pm today in New York, which I'm pleased with.


   4783. zenbitz Posted: December 22, 2013 at 02:51 PM (#4622531)
We got KC-IND in Northern California. Which doesn't make any sense. I thought the Raiders divisional rivals were San Diego State.
   4784. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: December 22, 2013 at 02:58 PM (#4622533)
today's broadcast map


That's a neat map, in that it instantly causes me to have strong opinions about things I didn't care about two minutes ago.

Why is half of Nevada not getting the Arizona-Seattle game? They're directly between Seattle and Phoenix! And why is northeast Nevada not included with the rest of the state? Does Elko play by its own rules now?
   4785. TerpNats Posted: December 22, 2013 at 04:25 PM (#4622558)
Dallas is down by nine early in the fourth quarter. If the Cowboys lose and the Eagles win, thus making next week's game meaningless, what becomes the NBC Sunday night game? (We know that all things being equal, the networks love NFC East games because of the big markets and fan bases, even if the division is dreadful.) Baltimore at Cincinnati? Detroit at Minnesota (the last game at the Metrodome)?
   4786. JJ1986 Posted: December 22, 2013 at 04:52 PM (#4622567)
Panthers are punting the ball back (4th and 7) down 3 at the 2 minute warning. That's not a winning strategy.

edit: And it works this time. Hate it, but glad Carolina's on top.
   4787. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 22, 2013 at 05:09 PM (#4622581)
Talk about a win-win scenario in Washington: If the Redskins won then Dallas would've been left hanging by a thread. But instead Dallas wins and it's even more humiliation for Shanahan and Danny boy. Gotta love it.
   4788. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 22, 2013 at 05:13 PM (#4622584)
And the Chiefs preserve their record of not being able to beat any team with a winning record. What a shocker.
   4789. stanmvp48 Posted: December 22, 2013 at 05:21 PM (#4622589)
After going for 2 last week and not making it; Shanahan passed up two chances to go for two and lost by a point.
   4790. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 22, 2013 at 05:27 PM (#4622595)
Shanny's the gift that keeps on giving.
   4791. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 22, 2013 at 05:50 PM (#4622608)
Talk about a win-win scenario in Washington: If the Redskins won then Dallas would've been left hanging by a thread. But instead Dallas wins and it's even more humiliation for Shanahan and Danny boy. Gotta love it.


This season was always going to end with a Cowboys-Eagles NFC East Championship Game, in which the Cowboys will take a 10-point lead into the fourth quarter and lose. It's destiny.
   4792. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: December 22, 2013 at 06:02 PM (#4622616)
And the Chiefs preserve their record of not being able to beat any team with a winning record. What a shocker.


Shocking. Also not true.

Dallas had a winning record at the time of the Chiefs game, and the Cowboys have one now as well. Philly also has a winning record now. One (or both) will have a winning record after next Sunday's game.
   4793. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 22, 2013 at 06:52 PM (#4622632)
I was referring to their opponents' records at the time of their actual matchups, but you're right. At the time the Chiefs squeaked out a 1 point win over Dallas in Week 2, the Cowboys juggernaut was fresh from a 5 point opening game win over the powerhouse Giants. So I stand corrected.

Now if only the Chiefs can figure out a way to meet Dallas in the Super Bowl....
   4794. Kurt Posted: December 22, 2013 at 07:42 PM (#4622640)
I was referring to their opponents' records at the time of their actual matchups


That's kind of a dumb way to look at it, no? Like it really matters if that Cowboys had been 1-0 or 0-1?
   4795. PASTE Thinks This Trout Kid Might Be OK (Zeth) Posted: December 22, 2013 at 09:50 PM (#4622676)
Is Ray OK? I haven't seen him in here crowing about the Seahawks losing at home, and I'm worried about him.
   4796. JJ1986 Posted: December 22, 2013 at 09:58 PM (#4622678)
I'm not sure this is all right, but I think:

Miami beats San Diego in a 2-way tie at 9-7.
Miami wins a 3-way tie with Baltimore and SD or a 4-way tie with all four at 8-8.
Baltimore beats San Diego in a 2-way tie at 9-7.
Baltimore beats Miami in a 2-way tie at 9-7.
San Diego is only in if they're the only team with more than 8 wins, either at 9-7 or 8-7-1.
   4797. madvillain Posted: December 22, 2013 at 10:11 PM (#4622680)
Goodbye Jim Schwartz, you arrogant prick. Don't let the door hit your skinny ass on the way out.

Schwartz was brought in as a "saber" style coach that would play the percentages and combine that with an old school toughness and disciplined approach, none of that came to fruition as he teams are often the most penalized, have the most drops, waste timeouts and poorly manage the clock in general.

That he felt the need to YELL AT THE FANS, Lions fans, that have supported this team over one of the worst two decades stretches of any pro team in NA sports history, shows exactly where his head is and why he needs to be canned ASAP.

Of course, William Clay Ford Jr, born on 3rd base thinking he hit a triple, is in charge and foolishly extended Schwartz after an awful 2012 and famously also gave Matt Millen (yes, that Matt Millen) an extension as well, so hopefully history is not an indicator of future decisions in this case.
   4798. Greg K Posted: December 22, 2013 at 10:29 PM (#4622688)
Is Ray OK? I haven't seen him in here crowing about the Seahawks losing at home, and I'm worried about him.

He's probably just bummed out by how poorly the Eagles are playing in the evening game. You win some, you lose some.
   4799. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: December 22, 2013 at 10:31 PM (#4622690)
Is Ray OK? I haven't seen him in here crowing about the Seahawks losing at home, and I'm worried about him.

He's dizzy with success over his Cardinals-Patriots-Eagles parlay. Can't say that I blame him.
   4800. Eddo Posted: December 22, 2013 at 10:32 PM (#4622691)
Miami wins a 3-way tie with Baltimore and SD or a 4-way tie with all four at 8-8.

The Steelers actually make the playoffs if all four finish 8-8.
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