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Monday, November 05, 2012

OT: NFL/NHL thread

i estimate that absolutely noone gives a damn about the NHL, so by folding that thread into this one, we won’t distract from what this thread is really about: boner pills, blood doping (is it low t?), and…jesus christ did mike vick just throw another ####### interception?

this is normal 57i66135. move on, find a new slant Posted: November 05, 2012 at 11:03 PM | 13108 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nfl, nhl

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   8101. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:33 PM (#4800663)
Catch
   8102. McCoy Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:36 PM (#4800665)
Why do the Eagles hate McCoy?
   8103. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:38 PM (#4800666)
I know there is lots of time left, but if the Eagles manage to win this despite having 2 more (official) TOs and 200 fewer offensive yards, it is possible that will be a first in NFL history.
   8104. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:41 PM (#4800667)
Foles lack of mobility hurt on those last two plays
   8105. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:44 PM (#4800668)
Naked bootleg time
   8106. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:45 PM (#4800669)
Harbaugh really had to run it up the middle there? Such idiocy.
   8107. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:50 PM (#4800670)
not a fan of Niners but would have been silly for Eagles to steal that game
   8108. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: September 28, 2014 at 07:51 PM (#4800671)
Oh. Right. The Vikings aren't allowed to have nice things. I forgot.
   8109. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4800680)
all tv sports poeple need to take it easy with the hair dye. as a group they look ridiculous
   8110. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2014 at 08:45 PM (#4800687)
I was at a 49er-Bills game in the early 1990's in which there were no punts. Both offenses marched up and down the field all day long. I think both quarterbacks (Young and Kelly) threw for over 400 yards, which was rather rare at the time.
   8111. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2014 at 08:48 PM (#4800688)
I was at a 49er-Bills game in the early 1990's in which there were no punts. Both offenses marched up and down the field all day long. I think both quarterbacks (Young and Kelly) threw for over 400 yards, which was rather rare at the time.
That was the only other such game in NFL history.
   8112. Howie Menckel Posted: September 28, 2014 at 08:52 PM (#4800690)
"Then, idiotically, they take their 2nd time out (with only a 2 point lead) instead of taking the delay of game,"

Whenever apologists try to claim that pro coaches ALWAYS know more than the schnook in the stands, note things like 2nd-half timeout usage. each of the 3 has a considerable value or potential value in a competitive game, but most NFL coaches do not seem to be aware of it. Harbaugh is a great example of that.

Taking timeouts when the offense is a little confused on 3rd and 14 early in the 3rd qtr indicates an appalling lack of understanding of the value of a timeout compared to the likelihood of converting a 3rd and 14 after burning said timeout, for instance. Taking the delay of game, and trying a 3rd and 19 play, does not dramatically change the chances of converting a first down, and you get to keep a timeout in your pocket.

That so many NFL coaches do not grasp this obvious premise is not our fault.
   8113. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2014 at 08:59 PM (#4800693)
Whenever apologists try to claim that pro coaches ALWAYS know more than the schnook in the stands, note things like 2nd-half timeout usage. each of the 3 has a considerable value or potential value in a competitive game, but most NFL coaches do not seem to be aware of it. Harbaugh is a great example of that.
Fully agreed. But in this case it was probably just an error by Kaep. It was already 4th down and they were only trying to draw them offside while letting the play clock run down. They punted right after the timeout.
   8114. Pasta-diving Jeter (jmac66) Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:05 PM (#4800697)
I know there is lots of time left, but if the Eagles manage to win this despite having 2 more (official) TOs and 200 fewer offensive yards, it is possible that will be a first in NFL history.

The Ravens had 2 such games at the end of their first Super Bowl year: the last regular season game against the Jets they were outgained 524-142, but won by 14 (2 PR TD's and a pick 6), then in the playoffs against the Titans they were outgained 317-134, and also won by 14.
   8115. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:09 PM (#4800701)
The Ravens had 2 such games at the end of their first Super Bowl year: the last regular season game against the Jets they were outgained 524-142, but won by 14 (2 PR TD's and a pick 6), then in the playoffs against the Titans they were outgained 317-134, and also won by 14.
Those game don't qualify. The team that was outgained ALSO had to be the one with more TOs. In both of those games Baltimore was the beneficiary of more turnovers, rather than the other way around.
   8116. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:13 PM (#4800703)
serves the saints. with qbs like rodgers, brees, manning 4th and short inside the opponents 35 should be a no brainer. go for it
   8117. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:22 PM (#4800709)
"Then, idiotically, they take their 2nd time out (with only a 2 point lead) instead of taking the delay of game,"

That was all on Kaepernick, a completely boneheaded play. He has really struggled with time management so far in career.

The Niners offense line was brutal today in pass protection. Kaepernick was under pressure all day. Kaep had a poor game overall despite making some plays. His receivers made some plays for him when a more accurate throw would have lead to some bigger gains. That said, he was under pressure all day.

With Vernon Davis out for most of the game, the Niners didn't have a deep threat. I don't think they've thrown the ball downfall so far this season nearly as much as they need to.

Bad day for special teams. Inconsistent day for the offense.

The Eagles offense looked awful today. I know they are missing guys on the offensive line but the Niners are without Bowman, Aldon Smith, Tremaine Brock, and Glenn Dorsey. They didn't do anything today.

San Francisco just doesn't look good right now. I worry about the defense without Bowman and Willis and the offense needs Vernon to take the top off the defense and they need their line to do a better job protecting the QB.
   8118. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:38 PM (#4800721)
49ers are really mediocre, and I am being kind. Teams without depth have crappy special teams (hello). When your defense, offense, and special teams suck, you are bad. They will be lucky to finish 8-8 or, maybe, 9-7. (Rumors that Harbaugh has lost the locker room cannot help.)
   8119. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:49 PM (#4800726)
if harbaugh is as intense as he plays for the camera we all know that guys like have a short shelf life in coaching one team. pro athletes just won't respond long term to loony tunes type antics over several years.
   8120. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 28, 2014 at 09:52 PM (#4800728)
Teams without depth have crappy special teams (hello).

I don't think they have crappy special teams. The punt block for the today was because the ball was at the 2 yard line. The Niners actually have pretty good depth overall.

When your defense, offense, and special teams suck, you are bad.

Defense is missing arguably the best middle linebacker in football, a guy who has averaged a sack per game in his career, their best corning back, and their nose tackle. Injuries are part of football and you have to weather the storm but the Niners have been hit harder than most early on in the season.

On offense, the offensive line has been worrisome and that has hurt the team's offense. Boone is shaking off the rust, Anthony Davis has basically missed the entire year so far (first game was today and he left with injury). Their is depth at running back, TE, and WR. But it all starts with the O-line.

As a Niner fan, all you can hope for is that the team can make the playoffs and then hope they are healthier and better by the times those playoffs starts.
   8121. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 28, 2014 at 10:20 PM (#4800748)
Numbers aren't everything. That said, they aren't useless either and Tony Romo certainly puts up some big numbers.

After tonight, only 5 teams in the NFC will have winning records, two of which the 49ers have beaten already this year. Weird.
   8122. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: September 28, 2014 at 11:40 PM (#4800791)
The Ravens had 2 such games at the end of their first Super Bowl year: the last regular season game against the Jets they were outgained 524-142, but won by 14 (2 PR TD's and a pick 6), then in the playoffs against the Titans they were outgained 317-134, and also won by 14.


The gold standard in this category (I know we were talking about teams in which the outgained team also had more turnovers, but this is one of the most amazing games that was ever played) is a game the Texans played against the Steelers in their inaugural season of 2002. The Texans were outgained 422 yards to 47... and the Texans won the game 24 to 6.

None of the above is a typo.

Made more amazing by the fact the Steelers were a playoff team in 2002. It was just Tommy Maddox having an extremely Tommy Maddox kind of day.
   8123. Rob_Wood Posted: September 28, 2014 at 11:49 PM (#4800793)
Russian, you either don't know what you are talking about or you haven't watched pro football for very long. If you think the 49ers have good depth, you should not be commenting on pro football. (And I really hate people posting crap anonymously.)
   8124. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:06 AM (#4800803)
win this despite having 2 more (official) TOs and 200 fewer offensive yards, it is possible that will be a first in NFL history.
So I looked this up on an internet database, and according to that site teams outgaining their opponents by 200 yds or more and having a turnover margin in their favor of +2 or more are 182-0 since 1989.

Teams with a 200 point yardage margin but only a 1 TO margin in their favor are 324-2. The most recent loss was this 22-23 Chicago win over Carolina in 2012, where Carolina kicked 5 FGs.
   8125. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:14 AM (#4800806)
The other game was Kansas City over Denver 24 -23. KC had a punt return for a TD in the 4th quarter, and Denver kicked 3 FGs. The game was in 2003.
   8126. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:19 AM (#4800808)
The gold standard in this category (I know we were talking about teams in which the outgained team also had more turnovers, but this is one of the most amazing games that was ever played) is a game the Texans played against the Steelers in their inaugural season of 2002. The Texans were outgained 422 yards to 47... and the Texans won the game 24 to 6.
Yup. There have only been 2 games since 1989 where a team was outgained by at least 350 yards and still won. You guys have now mentioned them both. In each case the outgained team won by 14 points. Teams outgaining their opponents by 350 is a pretty rare feat in the NFL (since 1989). It has only happened 28 times.
   8127. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:22 AM (#4800810)
Russian, you either don't know what you are talking about or you haven't watched pro football for very long. If you think the 49ers have good depth, you should not be commenting on pro football. (And I really hate people posting crap anonymously.)

First, it is Russlan not Russian. That's my first name and I have been posting on this site for a decade.

I am not going to argue about the depth of the 49ers roster with you. You sound like you have a strong opinion about it. All I will do is link to one article about the 49ers depth and encourage that a lot of people paid to talk about football say the 49ers have a deep roster.
   8128. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2014 at 01:05 AM (#4800823)
The largest yardage deficit overcome (since 1989) by a team with at least a 2 TO margin against was in this absurd win by the Raiders over KC in 2001.

The Raiders were outgained by 183 yards, and had a turnover margin of -4! They still won 28-26.
   8129. Norcan Posted: September 29, 2014 at 07:56 AM (#4800850)
The fake punt attempt by the Saints had to be the stupidest fake punt design ever. Why send someone looping back to the punter? He had so far to go that all it did was signal to the Cowboys that a fake punt was coming. Unless the punter was a former Australian Rules football player, the play dead in the water by the time the punter received the snap. It would've been better to attempt a 80 yard field goal than run that fake punt.

Johnny Manziel has to be chomping at the bit to start now that three of his fellow rookie quarterbacks have gotten starts. As solid as Hoyer has been, he might have to wait awhile. I was surprised to see that Hoyer is only 28. It seems like he's been around forever. It sucks that in-season trades are rare in the NFL but Hoyer would be a nice fit in Buffalo.
   8130. Kurt Posted: September 29, 2014 at 08:34 AM (#4800863)
That was the only other such game in NFL history.


The Colts and Chiefs had a playoff game with no punts about ten years ago.
   8131. Howie Menckel Posted: September 29, 2014 at 09:21 AM (#4800873)

"Fully agreed. But in this case it was probably just an error by Kaep."

fair enough. I should not have limited coaches to those who do not understand the value of a timeout (particularly in the 2nd half of a competitive game). Plenty of players don't understand it, either. Of course, Harbaugh has struggled with this point himself, and I doubt he has taught players a lesson that he doesn't understand, either.
   8132. Kurt Posted: September 29, 2014 at 10:07 AM (#4800886)
By the way, who the heck is going to win the NFC South?
   8133. Nasty Nate Posted: September 29, 2014 at 10:29 AM (#4800902)
The fake punt attempt by the Saints had to be the stupidest fake punt design ever.


Agreed. But even if it was a good design, that is a bad place for a fake punt.

Also, am I missing something or wasn't it foolish for the Cowboys to pass on the 3rd down play at the end? The play went for a touchdown, but wouldn't a kneel-down and a field goal attempt have been much less risky?
   8134. Eddo Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:13 PM (#4800997)
The fake punt attempt by the Saints had to be the stupidest fake punt design ever.

Regardless of play design, who do you want throwing the ball on a critical fourth down play: Drew Brees or Thomas Morestead?

EDIT: Coke to Nasty Nate (I think this is the same point he was getting at).
   8135. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4801000)
Russian, you either don't know what you are talking about or you haven't watched pro football for very long. If you think the 49ers have good depth, you should not be commenting on pro football. (And I really hate people posting crap anonymously.)

This is the internet. Everyone is anonymous.
   8136. zenbitz Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:35 PM (#4801011)
@8094
Apparently, Harbaugh meant to take a delay of game but forgot to tell Kap.

49ers can't really pass with Vernon Davis out, hence the conservativism. Also, their pass blocking sucks.
   8137. zenbitz Posted: September 29, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4801020)
Do the 49ers have a deep roster? That has been what the media says... I mean the have been stocking draft picks for 3-4 years now

However, it seems very bad on OL and DL.

They have been down 3-5 starters every game this year.
   8138. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2014 at 01:10 PM (#4801032)

The Colts and Chiefs had a playoff game with no punts about ten years ago.
This apparently was the only other "other" such game in NFL history.

This reminds me. Though I did not look up the history of games with no punts on that database site, I think the site might have been regular season since 1989 only, so the stuff I posted above probably does not include the postseason.
   8139. Bad Doctor Posted: September 29, 2014 at 02:13 PM (#4801098)
Do the 49ers have a deep roster? That has been what the media says... I mean the have been stocking draft picks for 3-4 years now

Yeah, I recall them drawing plaudits for drafting high upside injured players the last couple of years, part of the idea being that typical, safe third and fourth round picks wouldn't be able to hang on their squad anyway.

Mike Tanier is IMO about as good an analyst as there is, and he hit on it again this morning:

Also, a team with depth like San Francisco should not have one punt blocked and allow another punt to be returned for a touchdown.
   8140. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 29, 2014 at 11:33 PM (#4801387)
The Patriots are pretty bad, aren't they? They'll probably win 10 or 11 games and make the playoffs because of the division they are in but that's a bad receiving corps and offensive line that Brady is trying to win with.
   8141. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: September 29, 2014 at 11:55 PM (#4801390)
It's still early and I wouldn't touch a bet against Belichick and Brady with a 40 foot pole, but Brady sure does look pretty close to done, through four weeks.
   8142. Kurt Posted: September 30, 2014 at 08:10 AM (#4801439)
I'd be shocked if the Patriots win 11 games this year.

Their division isn't *that* bad - Pats are 0-1 against it so far - and they've already played the two worst non-division teams on their schedule (maybe the three worst if you put KC behind Chicago).

Their remaining games outside the division are Cincinnati, Chicago, Green Bay, Detroit, Denver, San Diego and Indianapolis. And they don't appear to have very many good players, on either side of the ball. I think even if they turn it around, 8-8 is a realistic goal (which might still be enough to win the division).
   8143. Norcan Posted: September 30, 2014 at 09:35 AM (#4801469)
Their division isn't *that* bad - Pats are 0-1 against it so far - and they've already played the two worst non-division teams on their schedule (maybe the three worst if you put KC behind Chicago).


The AFC East is really THAT bad. It's easily the worst division in football. The only solid non-division victory so far has been Buffalo's victory against Chicago. They've collectively beaten each other, Minnesota and Oakland. That's sad. The Jets are winless and pretty much hopeless this season because of their secondary and QB situation. Miami and Buffalo are pretty talented overall, with good defensive lines, receivers, secondaries and running backs but Buffalo's not going to rack up wins with Orton at QB and Tannehill has been so erratic or just plain bad thus far in his career. I wouldn't be surprised if the division winner is 7-9 like Seattle in 2010.
   8144. Kurt Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4801503)
The AFC East is really THAT bad. It's easily the worst division in football. The only solid non-division victory so far has been Buffalo's victory against Chicago. They've collectively beaten each other, Minnesota and Oakland. That's sad.


By "not that bad" I meant the other teams aren't miles behind New England like they've been for fifteen years. If it's the worst division in football it's because New England itself stinks; Miami; NYJ and Buffalo collectively are certainly better than Tennessee, Houston and Jacksonville, and no worse than Dallas/NYG/Wash (or possibly any 3 random teams from the NFC South).

Anyway, it's still September. The Jets have 3 losses (not 4); all competitive games against good teams. Neither of Buffalo's losses was terrible, and maybe they'll do better with Orton. Miami destroyed Oakland, which is more that New England can say. We'll see.
   8145. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:23 AM (#4801512)
So what's the best division? I've gotta go with the NFC West, with the AFC West just behind. The AFC North could be the sleeper, though that's probably too early to say for sure.
   8146. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:32 AM (#4801521)
It's still early and I wouldn't touch a bet against Belichick and Brady with a 40 foot pole, but Brady sure does look pretty close to done, through four weeks.

A big part of it is that for the first time in a really long time, his offensive line sucks.

He had one of the best lines blocking for him for so many years that everyone forgot how mediocre he is if he faces any kind of pressure and has to move his feet at all. The Super Bowl losees to the Giants should have demonstrated that though.
   8147. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 10:58 AM (#4801540)
It's still early and I wouldn't touch a bet against Belichick and Brady with a 40 foot pole, but Brady sure does look pretty close to done, through four weeks.


Yes; he is all the way down to Eli Manning's career QB rating.
   8148. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:00 AM (#4801541)
I'd be shocked if the Patriots win 11 games this year.


Well, it's not exactly a bold prediction to claim that a 2-2 team will go 9-3 the rest of the way.

That said, clearly people are overreacting here. This is Mike Francesa - type analysis: what you saw last is what will come next.
   8149. Conor Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:32 AM (#4801561)
Brady may not be done, but that offensive line is pretty awful.
   8150. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:37 AM (#4801564)
Brady may not be done, but that offensive line is pretty awful.


I really doubt this is an issue.
   8151. Conor Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4801577)
The Patriots are least seem to think so, considering how many quick throws they had Brady make last night. If they can't protect him any better than they did last night, Brady isn't gonna have great numbers.

Though maybe its more appropriate to say the offensive line was awful last night.
   8152. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:57 AM (#4801581)
So they make quick throws. There are numerous ways to compensate for this. It doesn't end up affecting wins and losses.
   8153. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:04 PM (#4801589)
So they make quick throws. There are numerous ways to compensate for this. It doesn't end up affecting wins and losses.

Of course it will. The fewer options you have that pose a legitimate threat, the more the defense can key on the few you do. There's no real way to compensate in the long run for poor pass protection.

I'm not saying that the Patriots' current suckitude is necessarily permanent. But they're not going to turn it around until they correct their fundamentals.
   8154. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:11 PM (#4801597)
Haven't you argued that the ability to throw the ball deep is pretty much the only thing that matters in the NFL, Ray?

The Patriots offensive line can't protect Brady long enough to allow for him to throw the ball downfield. Not to mention that the Patriots don't look to have a single receiver that looks capable of making plays deep. How does that not end up affecting wins and losses?
   8155. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4801610)
Haven't you argued that the ability to throw the ball deep is pretty much the only thing that matters in the NFL, Ray?


Not exactly. I have argued for basically a pass-only offense. That would open up the entire field and give you plenty of targets and you could then throw the ball wherever you wanted including taking plenty of shots downfield.

Of course the Patriots have deep WR threats. The talent pool for this is massive.
   8156. Nasty Nate Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4801611)
I'm a biased Pats fan, but I have to remind everyone how every year, everyone over-reacts to results on a week-to-week basis. This leads to gambling opportunities like the Patriots probably getting points at home next week against darlings-of-the-month Bengals.
   8157. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:21 PM (#4801612)
I also don't really buy the idea that there's much difference among O lines in the NFL. Again, the talent pool for this is massive.
   8158. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:23 PM (#4801615)
Right. The Bengals didn't suddenly become a juggernaut.
   8159. JL Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4801618)
I'm a biased Pats fan, but I have to remind everyone how every year, everyone over-reacts to results on a week-to-week basis. This leads to gambling opportunities like the Patriots probably getting points at home next week against darlings-of-the-month Bengals.


I don't see it as a week-to-week issue here. In the first four games, the Patriots have not looked great. The wins were close ones against the Raiders and the Vikings (playing without Peterson). The loss against Miami was not expected.

So I don't think the questions about what is going on is all that unreasonable. This Patriots team does not look like those of the past (which is a high bar) and right now, does not look like a team that will go far. However, they have time to turn it around, so I agree it would be folly to write them off right now.
   8160. Nasty Nate Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:43 PM (#4801625)
I don't see it as a week-to-week issue here. In the first four games, the Patriots have not looked great. The wins were close ones against the Raiders and the Vikings (playing without Peterson).


The win against the Vikings was not a close one. After that game, no one was so dramatically down about the Pats as everyone is now.

An ensuing 1-1 in 2 weeks, no matter how ugly the win and loss were, shouldn't change the analysis of a team so drastically - but yet it happens every year when people talk about NFL teams.

Again, I am a Pats fan so I might just be grasping for shreds of optimism.
   8161. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:52 PM (#4801631)
I also don't really buy the idea that there's much difference among O lines in the NFL. Again, the talent pool for this is massive.

Right, and the idea that LeBron will leave Miami is absurd.

You couldn't be more wrong, but that's pretty much par for the course.
   8162. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 12:53 PM (#4801632)
When did I say LeBron wouldn't leave Miami?
   8163. Joey B. is counting the days to Trea Turner Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:00 PM (#4801642)
   8164. zenbitz Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:03 PM (#4801646)
Ray, how do you statistically sort out the value of the OL and the QB?

And your state pent about compensating by throwing short passes is nonsense. If throwing short was as good as throwing short+long then no one would ever throw a long pass. They are harder to throw, harder to catch, and result in more turnovers. Having tactical options is what makes offenses run.

If your line (or receivers for that matter) won't let you throw deep then the defenses' job is much easier.

Have ever looked at how much better teams do per play when they run play action?

This is basic game theory
   8165. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4801647)
I also don't really buy the idea that there's much difference among O lines in the NFL. Again, the talent pool for this is massive.

Yeah, since they're all about the same size and weight, what could possibly distinguish an all-pro from a backup Deadskin? Any more words of wisdom you want to impart?
   8166. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:10 PM (#4801654)
When did I say LeBron wouldn't leave Miami?


Seriously? Post 680 right here.

That exchange, verbatim:

680. Ray (RDP) Posted: June 15, 2014 at 09:51 PM (#4726916)
I bet LeBron doesn't even come back to the Heat after this. His teammates have truly been pathetic.

This line of thought has sprung up all of a sudden. It didn't exist prior to this series, or prior to the series being 1-1. And it is truly a ridiculous assertion.


When even Joey's got you nailed with your own words, it might be time to take a time out. (smile)

   8167. Ray (CTL) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:17 PM (#4801661)
When even Joey's got you nailed with your own words, it might be time to take a time out. (smile)



I guess you guys got me. I didn't remember a throwaway line about a silly subject I posted on three months ago. And I turned out to be WRONG WRONG WRONG AS HE DID LEAVE MIAMI and therefore I am wrong about everything, always.

Yawn.

(I'm more curious about how and why someone would remember that I said that, and why both that someone and another someone felt the need to do a gotcha about it.)

Regardless, I've had enough "discussing the NFL" here for now. Such a scintillating discussion, completely on topic. See ya.
   8168. JL Posted: September 30, 2014 at 01:36 PM (#4801676)
The win against the Vikings was not a close one. After that game, no one was so dramatically down about the Pats as everyone is now.

An ensuing 1-1 in 2 weeks, no matter how ugly the win and loss were, shouldn't change the analysis of a team so drastically - but yet it happens every year when people talk about NFL teams.

Again, I am a Pats fan so I might just be grasping for shreds of optimism.


Fair enough about the Vikings win. And I agree folks were not quite so down at that point. But since then they did have a close win against the 0-4 Raiders and got blown out by the Chiefs. That, coupled with the loss to Miami, are making people wonder.

You can argue about how drastically someone should re-evaluate the team, but I think it is clear that at least some reevaluation is required.

As a Pats fan, you should be optimistic that the team will improve, because they group in charge has a history of doing so. But I do see some weaknesses that will make it more difficult that in the past.
   8169. Norcan Posted: September 30, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4801736)
Gronk getting healthier and hopefully somewhat back to his usual self should help out a lot. The Patriots have been more than getting by with one of the weakest (and shortest and slowest), wide receiving corps for years since Moss left because a tight end like Gronk, coupled with a prolific slot receiver and a good run game, can be enough, even dynamic. If Gronk can't approximate his old self, the Pats offense might not be able to climb out of their doldrums. I just hope the ACL injury wasn't the breaking point for Gronk, who has had so many injuries, broken arm, back surgery, fractured shin, even a surgical infection and I might be missing something. He has a case for applying for disability immediately after retiring.

One of the frustrating aspects with the Patriots' inability to draft half-way decent receivers since Deion Branch, with the exception of Edelman, is that Belichik has someone capable of doing just that in his favorite coaching protege, McDaniels. In his first year with Denver, he drafted both Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, neither of whom were surefire bets. McDaniels' draft record when it comes to WRs is already better than Belichik's decades long run of picking the groceries.

The loss of Mankins has really hurt the running game. I wasn't upset by the trade because he's been a liability in pass protection since tearing his ACL but he was still a top-notch road grader. I didn't realize how important he was to the running game. The offensive line just doesn't seem to be opening up as many holes. The whole offense has really dropped off.
   8170. Kurt Posted: September 30, 2014 at 03:01 PM (#4801743)
The win against the Vikings was not a close one. After that game, no one was so dramatically down about the Pats as everyone is now.

An ensuing 1-1 in 2 weeks, no matter how ugly the win and loss were, shouldn't change the analysis of a team so drastically - but yet it happens every year when people talk about NFL teams.

Again, I am a Pats fan so I might just be grasping for shreds of optimism.


Couple of concerns about the Pats specifically:

* Getting whipped on both sides of the line, as they did against Miami and KC, is a worse omen and a harder problem to fix than losing because your WR's dropped a few passes or the other team made a helmet catch or whatever.

* Coaching. Because it's Belichick, we're all assuming that the team went into last night prepared like they always do , which makes it more likely that the problem is a talent deficit than if a Jim Schwartz team lost a 41-14 game to a middling team.

Now, I *hate* the Pats and Brady, and have been waiting for years for the moment when Brady has to play with a poor team around him, so I might also be grasping for shreds of optimism. And Ray is correct that memories can be very short ("Kirk Cousins is a star! Kirk Cousins is a bum!") But things can change quickly in this league too, and right now I don't see *anything* the Pats are doing well.

Note on the Viking game - the Pats blocked a FG and ran it back at the end of the half. It's highly possible the second half plays out differently from 17-10 than it did from 24-7.
   8171. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: September 30, 2014 at 04:18 PM (#4801787)
Note on the Viking game - the Pats blocked a FG and ran it back at the end of the half. It's highly possible the second half plays out differently from 17-10 than it did from 24-7.


Also Cassel had a horrible game in general (it happens) and the Vikings rush has been mediocre all year*, which minimizes the "Pats O-line is bad" a great deal, since the Vikings don't seem to be able to even take advantage of a bad o-line.

* This last game the Falcons were down to using a TE as a guard and the Vikings still couldn't get much pressure. It was really sad.
   8172. Nasty Nate Posted: September 30, 2014 at 04:22 PM (#4801791)
right now I don't see *anything* the Pats are doing well.


But doesn't that really mean "in this one game, the Pats didn't do anything well." ? It seems like 24 hours ago one would have said the Pats are playing defense well, playing special teams well, and avoiding turnovers on offense.
   8173. Kurt Posted: September 30, 2014 at 05:46 PM (#4801845)
But doesn't that really mean "in this one game, the Pats didn't do anything well." ? It seems like 24 hours ago one would have said the Pats are playing defense well, playing special teams well, and avoiding turnovers on offense.


Possibly, though I don't know how many positives you could take away from the Oakland game. And avoiding turnovers doesn't excite me as the one thing your offense is doing well.
   8174. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Fred Posted: September 30, 2014 at 06:08 PM (#4801862)
Pro gambler I know is adamant about not betting on NFL until week 4, usually holds off until 6. The idea being that assessments are initially based on assumptions about players, units and whole teams based on prior seasons, then filtered through the knee-jerk week-to-week volatility.
   8175. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: September 30, 2014 at 11:26 PM (#4802473)
Pro gambler I know is adamant about not betting on NFL until week 4, usually holds off until 6. The idea being that assessments are initially based on assumptions about players, units and whole teams based on prior seasons, then filtered through the knee-jerk week-to-week volatility.


This would suggest there would be arbitrage opportunities for the 'pro' in weeks 1-4.. See I find the first four weeks of college to be the best for betting for these same reasons.
   8176. baudib Posted: October 01, 2014 at 02:55 AM (#4802984)
The difference in athleticism between the Eagles' starting O-line of a year ago (which featured 16 starts by all 5 members) and this year (almost everyone hurt, down to 3rd string at 2 spots at times) is simply astonishing. It's as stark as the difference between LeSean McCoy, who I still think is a top 3 back, minimum, from last year to this year.

Kelce-Mathis just wall off sooooo many defenders and give McCoy half the field to cut back in, and then they get to the second level to turn 5-yard gains into 20-yarders. They are easily 2 of the Eagles' 5 most important players, with LT Jason Peters being one of the top 3 as well.
   8177. Norcan Posted: October 01, 2014 at 08:01 AM (#4803000)
I re-watched the Pats game and the offensive line wasn't a total disaster like I initially thought. Solder contained Hali extremely well except for the one time Hali jumped the snap perfectly. There was not much Solder could've done to stop Hali on that play; unfortunately Hali causing a fumble made Solder's night appear worse than it was. Vollmer also had an uneventful night. The real culprits were the two rookies, center Stork and right guard Flemming. One time Stork got bounced unceremoniously out of the way when he tried pulling to the right; he also never created a push, rather he was always the way conceding ground right off the snap. He had an extremely tough matchup though. Flemming gave up multiple QB pressures and hits and struggled to sustain blocks in the running game. He was a stiff RT at Stanford who struggled to bend so it's not surprising he didn't shine at guard in his first start.

Brady could've played much better. His two fumbles were the fault of the offensive line giving up instantaneous pressure. His INTs were puzzling throws. One of his most appalling mistakes didn't involve an intercetion. It came when he had great protection and still tried forcing a throw to Gronk who was double covered. Gronk was his first read and with the protection he was afforded, he should've gone through his progressions. If he had done so, he would've seen his fullback wide open to his right with no defender ten yards near him. It's inexcusable and surprising for a veteran QB like Brady to make a mistake like that.
   8178. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 01, 2014 at 10:35 AM (#4803105)
I think it's fairly clear that something changed with Brady after he had his leg ripped halfway off, and with each year he ages he gets a little less interested in standing in and taking a hit (which I think is a common thing that happens to quarterbacks as they get older.)

The o-line is a problem, but right now I don't think there's a quarterback in the league who dreads contact as much as Brady, setting aside of course the Blaine Gabberts of the world who are just terrified all the time.
   8179. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 06:50 PM (#4807920)
Jets with 62 total yards (and only 20 passing yards) after about 3 quarters, against a middling SD defense. Has the team hit rock bottom yet?
   8180. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4807932)
Jets last 5 drives (Vick at the helm for at least some of them): 3 plays, -1 yds, INT; 3 plays, -3 yds, punt; 5 plays, -4 yds, punt; 3 plays, 1 yd, punt; 3 plays, -15 yds, punt.

Total: 17 plays, -22 yds, 4 punts and 1 INT.
   8181. Howie Menckel Posted: October 05, 2014 at 07:50 PM (#4807985)

Congrats to the Jets for being the first team shout out this season - and doing it with a sorry half from each of their "top" two QBs....
   8182. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 05, 2014 at 09:42 PM (#4808122)
Pro gambler I know is adamant about not betting on NFL until week 4, usually holds off until 6. The idea being that assessments are initially based on assumptions about players, units and whole teams based on prior seasons, then filtered through the knee-jerk week-to-week volatility.


Sorry to be responding this a week later; missed it the first time. I thought that was interesting because the only pro gambler I know says he makes most of his money on the NFL in the first six weeks.
   8183. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 09:44 PM (#4808130)
Cinci kicking a FG down by 14, on 4th and 2 from the 5. Way to take a risk (and pretty much all statistical evidence says that is the wrong move, by a lot).
   8184. McCoy Posted: October 05, 2014 at 09:52 PM (#4808144)
Sorry to be responding this a week later; missed it the first time. I thought that was interesting because the only pro gambler I know says he makes most of his money on the NFL in the first six weeks.


Back in the day when I was gambling on football I never put any money down on the first 4 weeks or so of the season. It always seemed like the first handful of weeks were way too unpredictable to wager money on. I guess if you were really good at figuring teams out and could get the inside skinny on them the first few weeks had a ton of opportunities to make a lot money but I was never in a position to get that kind of information.
   8185. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 09:53 PM (#4808148)
Sorry to be responding this a week later; missed it the first time. I thought that was interesting because the only pro gambler I know says he makes most of his money on the NFL in the first six weeks.
Agree fully with this. It's usually much easier to have an edge when people are responding more, percentage wise, to hype, rumor, and emotion, than when they are basing their positions on harder data.
   8186. zenbitz Posted: October 05, 2014 at 10:48 PM (#4808219)
49ers OL update: Pass Blocking, still terrible. Run blocking, acceptable. Still not much pass rush on defense. Lucked into winning this one.
   8187. Kurt Posted: October 05, 2014 at 10:50 PM (#4808220)
Not a very good night for Pats haters.
   8188. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 05, 2014 at 10:57 PM (#4808231)
49ers OL update: Pass Blocking, still terrible. Run blocking, acceptable.

I'd argue that the run blocking is better than acceptable considering that Gore and Hyde combined for 150 yards today and averaged more than 5 years per carry.

Still not much pass rush on defense.

The Niners are just trying to tread water on defense until Brock, Dorset, Aldon Smith and Navarro Bowman can come back.

Lucked into winning this one.

Hardly a dominant win but it's an important one.
   8189. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 10:59 PM (#4808233)
49ers OL update: Pass Blocking, still terrible. Run blocking, acceptable. Still not much pass rush on defense. Lucked into winning this one.
I won't disagree with this. On the other hand, statistically the 49ers were probably the better team on the afternoon, and seemed to make better coaching decisions down the stretch, which is critical in a close game.

Harbaugh is very lucky the niners won this one, as the media was out for his blood this week, and a loss would have left the niners on life support for making the playoffs. I'm from SF but I hate this latest version of the team, particularly Harbaugh and Kaep (though both are very good at their jobs), so was very ready to enjoy the fallout from a niners loss. I can console myself that they really don't seem good enough to advance past the NFC Championship this year, if they are luck enough to get that far.
   8190. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 11:06 PM (#4808241)
Despite the Pats doing well tonight, I really like the move the Bills made starting Orton today. They can smell a playoff spot, either as division champ or as 6th seed in the playoff. Their team, with a competent QB, is decent enough to pull it off in a down year for the AFC East. Considering how much of a boost it would be to the franchise for the team to make the playoffs (they last made it in 1999), reducing the variance by playing it safe at QB, when it appears that their team has the edge at other positions, seems an intelligent gamble. It seems to have paid off today of course.
   8191. Russlan thinks deGrom is da bomb Posted: October 05, 2014 at 11:25 PM (#4808273)
I'm from SF but I hate this latest version of the team, particularly Harbaugh and Kaep (though both are very good at their jobs), so was very ready to enjoy the fallout from a niners loss. I can console myself that they really don't seem good enough to advance past the NFC Championship this year, if they are luck enough to get that far

I'm not as down on this team. Boone is still shaking off that rust after the hold out. Iupati has looked better and it's not surprising that he's struggled a bit since breaking his ankle in the NFC championship game. Anthony Davis has essentially missed the whole year so far. I expect the o-line to play better as the year progresses.

Gore has looked great so far this year and Hyde looks like he is his clone. I think having Hyde around and is going to keep Gore fresh.

The receiving corps has been better. I do wish they had a guy who could scare people downfield considering the deep ball is Kaep's biggest strength IMHO but they have 4-5 quality receivers.

I think the defense is weak right now but let's not be so harsh on them. Statistically, they have actually been pretty good and they should only get better as they get healthier.

Looking at the NFC is there anyone other than Seattle that's clearly better than them even right now? And the Niners are going to get better as the season progresses.

Also, I have to say it was a little weird to watch Alex Smith today.
   8192. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: October 05, 2014 at 11:34 PM (#4808286)
Russlan, you are bringing me down, man! Actually I like Gore and have nothing against some of the other players, like Vernon Davis and a bunch of the defensive players. I don't dislike the niners because they are bad, as that would be basically pointless (*cough* Singletary's niners *cough*). I dislike the personality of some of their stars.

Anyway, it's not so much that they are bad (they aren't), but that they have a hard slog to make it to the playoffs. Seattle is excellent, Arizona is very good, and it is likely that at least one or more teams from the other NFC divisions will have a good year, for whatever reason, even if it happens to be luck alone. If the niners get relatively healthy come playoffs, I can see them as equal to the second best team in the NFC, whoever that ends up being. Right now though, they are not much better than 50/50 to make the playoffs, simply because of the make-up of the division and conference.
   8193. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 05, 2014 at 11:41 PM (#4808293)
As I said above, the ideas that:

* The Pats now suck;
* Brady is old and done;
* The Pats' O line is terrible;
* The Bengals are now a juggernaut.

were always silly.

   8194. Kurt Posted: October 06, 2014 at 08:33 AM (#4808354)
And there's Ray, right on cue, pulling his usual Mike Francesa - type analysis: what he saw last is what will come next.
   8195. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 06, 2014 at 09:34 AM (#4808382)
Not at all. If a team's O line is shot -- and that matters -- they can't do what they did last night.
   8196. Ray (CTL) Posted: October 06, 2014 at 09:38 AM (#4808388)
Re the Jets, as I've said:

* No quarterback will ever thrive on a team which Rex Ryan is the head coach of. I realize he's hands off on offense but he still dictates overall strategy as far as how risk averse he wants the QB to be. I don't know if Geno Smith can be a good QB -- certainly he looks bad but again the Rex factor queers the analysis -- but I know he won't be on Ryan's team.

Ryan has now had multiple young QBs and has been there half a decade, and no young QB has thrived under him. Sanchez survived for a while. Smith isn't even doing that.

I remain skeptical that even Vick can do well unless Vick sort of goes off script.
   8197. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 06, 2014 at 09:43 AM (#4808395)
Vick won't stay in the lineup long enough to perform notably well or poorly.

As near as I can tell, the fans of every team in the NFL except the one Peyton Manning plays for think their o-line is bad at pass blocking. Perhaps we ought to consider the probability that NFL defenses are very good at pass rushing and keeping your quarterback from getting hit in the NFL is very, very, difficult?

If fans of teams like 49ers or Patriots think their o-line sucks at pass blocking, they need to take a few weeks to watch the Packers or Steelers or, God help us, the Raiders or Jaguars.
   8198. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 06, 2014 at 09:50 AM (#4808406)
zeth

the packers line is actually pretty solid now that belaga is back and in game form. but rodgers holds onto the ball forever resulting in a fair number of sacks.



   8199. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: October 06, 2014 at 10:00 AM (#4808414)
Oh, Bulaga's playing? Well that can't last long. It does make a big difference the short periods he's in the lineup, though.

How many quarterbacks, besides Peyton Manning, are renowned for getting the ball out quickly? "Our quarterback holds onto the ball too long" is another complaint you hear a lot from football fans who don't watch the Jaguars or Steelers very much. (Though if I recall correctly Rodgers IS up there on the list of average time holding the ball on plays that aren't designed screens.)
   8200. Harveys Wallbangers Posted: October 06, 2014 at 10:05 AM (#4808417)
zeth

i know of what i speak. rodgers is regularly taken down because he just cannot bring himself to dump it off or throw it away.
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