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Thursday, November 01, 2012

OT: November College Football Thread.

Alabama Is still Ranked #1.  Will they hold steady to repeat? Make it to the title game?  Or does another team claim the Crystal ball in Miami in January.

Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: November 01, 2012 at 01:43 PM | 3408 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football

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   1. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 01, 2012 at 06:20 PM (#4290415)
apparently it's now a thing to question whether alabama could beat the kansas chiefs in a game. the consensus seems to be that, no, no college team could even come close to beating an NFL team.


it's easy to see why that would be the case, but i think there could some wiggle room in this respect: coaching and discipline makes a huge difference in football. if you're talking about the most talented team in college football, a team that is well coached with strong discipline, playing the least talented team in the NFL, one that is poorly coached, with little to no discipline, i think it would become much more of a pick'em.

   2. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 01, 2012 at 06:21 PM (#4290416)
So what exactly happened to the other thread?
   3. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 01, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4290425)
Maction! You know, I thought the MAC was having a pretty good year but Sagarin still has them as the lowest rated FBS conference. I guess the bottom of the conference is really dragging them down.
   4. RMc's desperate, often sordid world Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:02 PM (#4290444)
I guess the bottom of the (MAC) is really dragging them down.

*cough*RMc's alma mater*cough*

And, holy mackerel, they're playing right now!
   5. Riki Tiki Javy Lopez Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:15 PM (#4290447)
#1 it's only a thing for uber-troll Spurrier...

And the sheer physical size, strength and talent of an NFL team would overpower and maul any college team.
   6. JJ1986 Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:19 PM (#4290448)
I think we spent about a month having that discussion last year.
   7. Chicago Joe Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:29 PM (#4290457)
I guess the bottom of the (MAC) is really dragging them down.

The top-ranked team in the MAC by SRS is Northern Illinois at 5.11 which ranks 46th.
The worst is Massachusetts which at -22.16 is dead last.
   8. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4290464)
As an Alabama graduate who lives in Baton Rouge I have debated going to the game...and I just cannot do it (well first the tickets are crazy expensive), not sure if I could handle the pressure.

I think Bama wins, but it is going to be a battle. Obviously LSU's defense is great so that is going to create the biggest problems, but I have been hearing too much on local radio that LSU just needs to execute or refocus or gain chemistry...and it is the wrong week to try to do all of that.
   9. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:43 PM (#4290466)
Lots of games on tonight, what a pleasant change of pace, even if none of them are all that interesting. Well, Western Kentucky is a cool team.
   10. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 01, 2012 at 07:57 PM (#4290472)
This weekend will also be a good one to see who might end up in NYC as a Heisman finalist. We are not quite locked in with who is likely in the top 5 just yet, but there seems to be a consensus of sorts (Klein, Teo, Miller, and McCarron with Geno Smith, an Oregon RB, or even Marquis Lee thrown in there)
   11. thok Posted: November 01, 2012 at 08:17 PM (#4290479)
The worst is Massachusetts which at -22.16 is dead last.


That probably overrates UMass.
   12. Mike Webber Posted: November 01, 2012 at 08:51 PM (#4290494)
BCS Scenarios from Prediction Machine.com.
Chances there are still six undefeated FBS teams on December 2 (after conference title games): 0.06% (or 1-in-1718)
Chances Alabama, Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 1.22% (or 1-in-82)
Chances Notre Dame, Kansas State and Oregon are undefeated on December 2: 2.23% (or 1-in-45)


Hypothetical BCS Championship Games:

While it is difficult (impossible) to project exactly what the computers (who do not have to disclose their formulas) or pollsters (who have historically proven an inability to act rational) are going to say at the end of the season, we use Todd Furhman’s possibilities and speculative lines here to present our projected results from 50,000 simulations of potential BCS Championship Games:


Alabama vs. Kansas State

Todd Furhman Line: Alabama -10.5

PredictionMachine.com Projected Score: Alabama 31 – Kansas State 23

PredictionMachine.com Projected Win Percentage: Alabama wins 62.7%

Hypothetical ATS Pick: Kansas State +10.5
   13. Mess with the Meat, you get the Wad! Posted: November 01, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4290530)
Is he giving odds on individual teams to go undefeated?
   14. Mike Webber Posted: November 01, 2012 at 09:56 PM (#4290538)
Yes,

for example
Louisville Cardinals

Games Remaining: 4

Undefeated Chances: 16.6%

Closest Remaining Game: at Rutgers (November 29)

Read it, its very good.
   15. clowns to the left of me; STEAGLES to the right Posted: November 02, 2012 at 12:05 AM (#4290643)
BCS Scenarios from Prediction Machine.com.
i'm rooting for this:

# Chances that Louisville is the only undefeated FBS (BCS eligible) team on December 2: 2.62% (or 1-in-38)
   16. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 02, 2012 at 12:14 AM (#4290645)
I thought the MAC was having a pretty good year but Sagarin still has them as the lowest rated FBS conference.

Sagarin is but one rating system.

This compilation of 120+ computer rankings has the MAC 10th, edging Sun Belt and CUSA.
   17. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 02, 2012 at 08:18 PM (#4291274)
This probably would have been better to post last night, but man, Virginia Tech is not good this year. The ten win streak is officially over and with FSU coming next week, they will probably finish 6-6 on the season. That's some kind of collapse.
   18. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: November 02, 2012 at 11:55 PM (#4291437)
Cal vs. Washington - one of these teams could win this game if they could actually HOLD ON TO THE #)#&&^# FOOTBALL!
   19. The Ghost's Tryin' to Reason with Hurricane Season Posted: November 03, 2012 at 12:30 AM (#4291447)
Thank you, Washington.
   20. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4291633)
Turns out Mississippi State kind of sucks.

Florida is looking very shaky against Mizzou. Still like their chances because Mizzou can't seem to move the ball either. Franklin is a shell of the player he was a year ago.
   21. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 12:54 PM (#4291635)
Florida's offense is really just putrid. This is the college football equivalent of the 2003 Dodgers.
   22. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4291729)
Turns out Mississippi State kind of sucks.

Also, that A&M is really good. Man, they are just cruising. Maybe there is something to them being dangerous @ Bama. Looks like they will be able to rest their starters in the fourth today.

Flipping between that and the Florida game. The Gators just got a safety, even if the refs didn't call it that way.
   23. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4291763)
Heck of an answer drive by Mizzou, but they have to kick and naturally Florida blocks it. I just expect Florida to block kicks in close games this year.
   24. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4291774)
James Franklin is killing Mizzou today.
   25. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:36 PM (#4291784)
I was wondering how the offensive line actually gave Driskel enough time to throw deep, and, voila. Holding.
   26. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4291788)
Florida's back-up kicker (a walk-on, of course) has booted two extra points. He celebrated the first one like it won the Super Bowl. He'll be talking about that for the rest of his life.

"The Missouri story again? Oh, if you want to hear it one more time, I guess I can tell it. Missouri was 17-0 that year, which was impressive in a 12-game season. Their defensive line would go 1-2-3-4 in the next NFL draft. They blocked every field goal attempted against them. But when coach called on me, I delivered. The first field goal was 58 yards into a hurricane force wind. Nailed it. The second was even longer..."
   27. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4291822)
WVU starts just as I getting overly tired of the battle of punts that Florida-Mizzou is. Mizzou had every opportunity in the world today, but Florida's combined with Franklin's inconsistency pretty much sunk em.

Let's see if Geno can bounce back today.
   28. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4291824)
Brian Griese sounds disgusted by James Franklin's performance. Not in a dickish way, to be clear, but he's not sugarcoating anything.
   29. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4291839)
Troy is just giving Tennessee everything right now. Maybe next time Auburn and Tennessee will hire coaches with winning records at their previous stops.
   30. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4291848)
Who isn't disgusted by Franklin's performance? Everyone on Missouri deserved to win this game except Franklin. That was one of the worst performances I've ever seen, and I'm not exaggerating.
   31. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4291850)
UF ends with a 7-1 SEC record and, barring something truly disastrous, has a 10-win campaign pretty much locked up. It'll be as ugly a 10-win season as you can imagine, but it would take an epic bout of Gator fandom to ##### about that.
   32. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4291870)
Well, WVU comes out and lets a run first redshirt freshman QB convert a bunch of third and longs to go down at home against a team with the thinnest roster in the conference. Awesome, good use of a bye week.
   33. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4291872)
Maryland is down to a true freshman scout team LBer playing QB today after they lost their final scholarship QBs for the season last week. The guy did OK though Maryland still ended up losing...
   34. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4291880)
I'm rooting for Ole Miss today simply because the UGA fan base is looking past the rest of the season and thinks they are already in the SEC Championship Game.
   35. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4291883)
Hard to believe the WVU offense was a mirage, but it has been 9 quarters since they looked even average.
   36. McCoy Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4291885)
I think we spent about a month having that discussion last year.

I vaguely remember that conversation or some other conversation along those lines involving USC at the time and I'll stand by my original belief which is that at this time no college team could beat a pro team without requiring some massive amounts of luck helping them along. The difference between the two is huge and for this to really become apparent you really do need to watch the games live in person in a stadium or on the sideline.
   37. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4291887)
Ugh, I'm rooting for the Confederacy-obsessed school in Mississippi. Bad times.
   38. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 03, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4291892)
Troy and Tennessee is tied up 48-48 with about 3 minutes to go in the 4th. Troy has 669 yards, Tennessee has 667 yards.
   39. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4291916)
Well, WV may be done as a team, but everyone should see the ridiculous TD run (technically a reception) that Tavon Austin just busted out against TCU. If I can find it on Youtube, I will link it.
   40. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4291946)
Ole Miss up 10-0 in the 2nd quarter.
   41. McCoy Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4291952)
NA
   42. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4291955)
Ole Miss up 10-0 in the 2nd quarter.


And then decide to not cover a WR at all and now it's 10-7.
   43. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4291959)
As promised, Austin's TD run.

It would be so Georgia to lose to Ole Miss. After watching Florida the last two weeks, I don't especially want to see them play Bama.

How about Texas with a two score lead @ Texas Tech.

Pitt keeping it close with ND too.
   44. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4291977)
Ole Miss-Georgia has taken a hilarious turn.

Georgia run: Fumble.
Ole Miss pass: Fumble.
Georgia run: Gain.
Georgia run: Fumble.
Ole Miss pass: Interception.
   45. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 03, 2012 at 04:58 PM (#4291978)
Ole Miss-Georgia game just had:
Georgia fumble, Ole Miss recovery
Ole Miss stripped, Georgia recovery
Georgia stripped, Ole Miss recovery
Ole Miss throws an interception.

In about a minute span.
   46. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:03 PM (#4291983)
Like their fans UGA also thinks they are already in the SEC title game.
   47. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:10 PM (#4291988)
Georgia run: Fumble.
Ole Miss pass: Fumble.
Georgia run: Gain.
Georgia run: Fumble.
Ole Miss pass: Interception.


That's fairly similar to what happened in the Washington-Cal game last night. Of course, you expect it from those two teams. Although Georgia wasn't exactly protecting the ball well last year either.
   48. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4291990)
Missed blocks, missed tackles, dropped passes and penalties... if Notre Dame played this badly last week, they would have lost by three touchdowns.
   49. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:24 PM (#4292000)
Urban Meyer is going to have a lot of success at Ohio State. I don't know how long the Buckeyes can expect to enjoy him, but it's really a good match between coach and program.
   50. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4292002)
What's the rumor on why he left Florida? Do you think he really wanted to give up coaching (at least for a while)?
   51. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4292010)
The only real answer to that is "I don't know," Pops. The theory among the Meyer-hating Florida fans is that Meyer saw Saban was revving up at 'Bama and ran away because he knew he could never beat Saban. I'm skeptical.

My wholly unsupported theory is that Meyer, who delegated a lot of the coaching load his last year at Florida, saw the awful season the Gators put up in 2010 and decided that, if coaching in a healthy, balanced manner was going to produce 8-5 seasons and coaching successfully was going to kill him, he might as well get away from the game for awhile. "Awhile" turned into one year when the Ohio State job unexpectedly came open, and Meyer convinced himself he was ready to take on that kind of job again.
   52. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 03, 2012 at 05:58 PM (#4292023)
Actually, Notre Dame may lose by three touchdowns this week.
   53. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4292027)
Pitt is feeling it out there and ND looks a bit shook.
   54. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4292030)
ND is done. They just aren't there mentally at this point.

EDIT: I should note that a TD ends it. A FG gives them a fighting chance.
   55. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:40 PM (#4292042)
And ND found the sort of motivation they've been lacking most of today. Too bad their kicker is terrible.
   56. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4292044)
Everett Golson with as bad a decision in as important a moment you'll see all season.
   57. hokieneer Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:50 PM (#4292045)
Into the 2nd ot in morgantown.
   58. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4292046)
West Virginia loses. #### them, they totally deserved it. Choking cocksuckers. ####### ########. Holy ####, that was such an inexcusable loss. Welcome to 6-6 you stupid ##### cocksuckers.
   59. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 03, 2012 at 06:58 PM (#4292049)
so please tell me an OT win over a bad Big East team is gonna be unimpressive enough for KSU and Oregon to move ahead of these #############....
   60. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4292052)
Everett Golson with as bad a decision in as important a moment you'll see all season.


Pitt decided to run a drive designed to give ND enough time to come back.

And Golson made up for it.
   61. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:06 PM (#4292057)
And now ND has decided not to try to get inside FG range.
   62. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:13 PM (#4292061)
what crappy coaching by Pitt.
   63. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:20 PM (#4292068)
Awesome fumble by Pitt. And really weird call by the refs there.
   64. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:24 PM (#4292071)
Pitt is getting ZERO pass rush.
   65. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4292076)
I think ND just lost.
   66. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4292077)
Two red-zone turnovers is how you lose a winnable game.
   67. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:34 PM (#4292078)
So now Pitt just has to kick a field goal. I don't exactly have faith they can pull that off.
   68. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:36 PM (#4292081)
.....wow
   69. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4292082)
Luck of the...
   70. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:38 PM (#4292085)
Same ####### thing as the WV game. If you need a field goal to win it, why the #### would ever not just run the ball to the middle of the field. Are football coaches that ####### dense? This #### happens every week because they choose to kick from the hash mark.
   71. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4292089)
Look at that, from the middle of the field, he makes a slightly longer kick.
   72. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:42 PM (#4292090)
Nice late break on your slider, Pitt kicker.
   73. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:52 PM (#4292095)
Pitt is playing just well enough to give ND hell. They're playing just poor enough to remind everyone they lost at home by 2 touchdowns vs. Youngstown State.
   74. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:53 PM (#4292096)
Look at that, from the middle of the field, he makes a slightly longer kick.


Yeah, that was really shady running. You have to get to the middle of the field there if you're going to to a conservative run.
   75. Mike A Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4292098)
ESPN has two conflicting headlines up, one with Notre Dame losing in the 2nd OT, and one with them winning in the 3rd. Sheesh.
   76. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 07:55 PM (#4292100)
That was such a terrible defensive playcall. How do you allow the most obvious offensive play call to be so obviously the right call?
   77. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:00 PM (#4292104)
I hope ND doesn't get the right to lose by 30 to lose to Alabama.
   78. Adam M Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:05 PM (#4292108)
I know USC is overrated, but damn does Oregon's offense look good. I can't believe that anyone who has seen them play honestly thinks ND is a better team.
   79. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:09 PM (#4292113)
Isn't it sort of odd that AJ McCarron isn't a runaway favorite for the Heisman? I'm not saying he deserves to be (and I'm not saying he doesn't, either). But based on everything we've seen over the years, wouldn't we expect the hyper-efficient quarterback putting up big numbers for the consensus best team in the country to be running away with this thing? I mean, McCarron is the quarterback for the most dominant team in the country and he has 18 TDs against 0 interceptions. Based on the stereotype of the Heisman Trophy over the years (Quarterback for the Best Team) McCarron should have this in a romp.
   80. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:12 PM (#4292115)
Notre Dame is gonna move to #1 after Bama loses; media will say that avoiding the trap letdown defeat at home testifies to their "toughness" and "character"....
   81. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:13 PM (#4292117)
Verne Lundquist is, at this point in his career, probably an objectively bad announcer, but I can't imagine big-time CBS football without him.
   82. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:14 PM (#4292119)
Notre Dame is gonna move to #1 after Bama loses; media will say that avoiding the trap letdown defeat at home testifies to their "toughness" and "character"....


KSU has to lose too for ND to hit #1 in the BCS.
   83. Quaker Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:23 PM (#4292127)
9-0
   84. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4292130)
LSU defensive end Sam Montgomery wrote "Lattimore" on his arm tape for the game.
   85. nick swisher hygiene Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:28 PM (#4292131)
82--ah, I was just being ###### about ND...
   86. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4292134)
Verne Lundquist is not "probably" a bad announcer. He's a fat turnip of awful announcing.
   87. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:30 PM (#4292136)
Isn't it sort of odd that AJ McCarron isn't a runaway favorite for the Heisman?

It's because he has so few attempts. Everyone recognizes that he hasn't been a huge part of the offense, despite being a totally awesome QB.
   88. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:31 PM (#4292137)
Ok State is a great running team - they're not the best team in the Big 12. But they have a legit argument for being the hardest offense to stop.

Also, Texas looked really good against TT!
   89. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:32 PM (#4292138)
Alabama's defensive line is getting blown off the line a bit here.
   90. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:35 PM (#4292140)
Alabama looking very mortal. KSU losing. Oregon in a shootout. And ND barely beats Pitt.

My point, i guess, is that college teams cannot ####### beat a pro team.
   91. DA Baracus Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4292142)
Verne Lundquist is, at this point in his career, probably an objectively bad announcer, but I can't imagine big-time CBS football without him.


Yeah he's pretty bad now. Him and Don Criqui have been calling games for 40 years. Damn.
   92. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:38 PM (#4292144)
USC is cutting up Oregon's defense right now.
   93. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:39 PM (#4292145)
I don't understand how LSU can be so good at everything else and so bad at developing anything in the passing game.
   94. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4292149)
I don't know about Musberger's CFB history, but he was CBS' play-by-play guy for the '76 NBA Finals - that's OLD.
   95. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:47 PM (#4292150)
I'm not at all surprised Oregon put up 38, but didn't forecast the D giving up 28.
   96. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 08:49 PM (#4292152)
I'm not at all surprised Oregon put up 38, but didn't forecast the D giving up 28.

864 total yards through the first half. Whoa.
   97. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 03, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4292167)
That was a beautiful drive by Alabama.
   98. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 03, 2012 at 09:11 PM (#4292169)
Next time Saban downloads his software upgrades he might look into the "Joy" package.
   99. Spivey Posted: November 03, 2012 at 09:20 PM (#4292179)
I think that was well said by Danielson. That's a bit dangerous, fielding that punt. But you expect your returner to be able to field it, and not fumble it. It's why the short punt is so damn good. It was going to roll 20 yards.
   100. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: November 03, 2012 at 09:21 PM (#4292183)
USC making it a game. 34-31.
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