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Thursday, November 01, 2012

OT: November College Football Thread.

Alabama Is still Ranked #1.  Will they hold steady to repeat? Make it to the title game?  Or does another team claim the Crystal ball in Miami in January.

odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 01:43 PM | 3408 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football

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   401. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:14 PM (#4300356)
My favorite argument in all of college football is the myth that everyone else would be .500 or so in the SEC. What is Georgia's second best win? Vanderbilt? Missouri? Because it sure as hell isn't Ole Miss or Auburn. Those teams couldn't get to a bowl game in the ACC. Does anyone remember that Georgia lost to home by a couple scores to Boise and lost in Tampa to Michigan St? What exactly has Georgia down outside the conference to suggest they should start each season highly ranked?


While I don't disagree too much with the sentiment...part of it is the grind of the SEC (or the Big 12 or even PAC-12, though I think the SEC grind is tougher) week in and week out that causes issues. Boise State has one big game a year. South Carolina had a stretch of Georgia, at LSU, at Florida.
   402. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:15 PM (#4300357)
As a stats site it really is amazing to see how many people ignore them in other sports. Number 1 in the computers for a reason


There's a difference between a real woman and that inflatable doll you're cuddling, love.
   403. Spivey Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:19 PM (#4300361)
As a stats site it really is amazing to see how many people ignore them in other sports. Number 1 in the computers for a reason


Yeah, that reason is because the computers can't take into account margin of victory.
   404. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:21 PM (#4300362)
I'm pretty sure Vandy would win the Big 12.

Just imagine what an SEC powerhouse like A&M would do in the Big 12... they would go undefeated in conference for like a decade.
   405. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:30 PM (#4300367)
Rickey, this girl is not inflated. The only reason sje looks suprised is the stupid claim that ND wasnt top a top 5 team
   406. Spivey Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:33 PM (#4300368)
Hey Spivey, would Texas agree to playing Johnny Football in the Cotton Bowl? To me that looks like the matchup, though the SEC blogger on ESPN thinks A&M will go to the Fiesta. I think it would be outstanding! Though the hotel people might hate it.


Well, Texas obviously doesn't get to agree. I am hopeful we win out, and I think if that happens we have a good shot of going to a BCS game over Oklahoma for the second Big 12 team. Likewise I think A&M is hoping right now that they get into a BCS game. Pretty much all of the SEC schools that are in the BCS hunt travel well to my knowledge - South Carolina may not, but they're also IMO clearly the worst of the teams with Lattimore hurt and are not going to get the bid no matter what. A&M would travel especially well because I don't think they've been in a BCS game. To a school like LSU or even Florida to an extent, a BCS at-large after the run of recent success isn't going to be as big of a deal.

Personally, I don't think Texas has the run defense to beat A&M and I don't want to play them as a result. Especially because I loathe A&M and I much prefer having the last game we play in a while be the win we had last Thanksgiving rather than having Manziel run for 200 yards on us. I'd also really like to see Texas play LSU, Georgia, or Florida. They never play those schools and it would be fun. It would be especially fun if it were in the BCS, though I don't imagine that would be an option due to how the teams are picked.
   407. Mike Webber Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:35 PM (#4300370)
The SEC two toughest non-con games haven't been played yet, USC at Clemson, UF at FSU, but these are their best non-con wins so far, ranked by Sagarain's BCS (ie no margin of victory).
Month Date At/Hm/vs Opponent Site Non-Con W/L TM Sagrain Rank ELO Chess Nov 4 Predictor
Sept 8 Hm WASHINGTON  X W LSU 15 41
Sept 1 vs Michigan  Arlington
Texas X W ALABAMA 21 24
Aug 30 vs Louisiana Tech  Shreveport X W TEXAS A
&M 30 52
Sept 8 Hm KENT STATE  X W KENTUCKY 35 71
Sept 15 Hm ARIZONA STATE  X W MISSOURI 36 17
Sept 29 at  Central Florida  X W MISSOURI 48 49
Nov 3 Hm TULSA  X W ARKANSAS 54 53
Sept 15 Hm LOUISIANA
-MONROE  X W AUBURN 62 60
Oct 20 Hm MIDDLE TENNESSEE  X W MISSISSIPPI STATE 70 88
Aug 31 vs NC State  Atlanta X W TENNESSEE 72 65
Sept 8 Hm WESTERN KENTUCKY  X W ALABAMA 76 75 
   408. Mike Webber Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:42 PM (#4300374)
Well, Texas obviously doesn't get to agree.

Technically, maybe. But I gotta think if UT doesn't want to play A&M in the Cotton, they can use their influence to avoid the match-up. Especially with a Texas based bowl, I bet they have a lot of pull.
   409. Mike Webber Posted: November 11, 2012 at 11:45 PM (#4300375)
I have the SEC non-con losses too, but there are only 7 of them - 36-7 so far with 13 to play (8 the week of the 17th). The 7 losses, 2 for KY, 2 for ARK, 1 for Ole Miss, Vandy and Auburn.
   410. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 12, 2012 at 12:19 AM (#4300390)
While I don't disagree too much with the sentiment...part of it is the grind of the SEC (or the Big 12 or even PAC-12, though I think the SEC grind is tougher) week in and week out that causes issues.

Most recent years I would agree with this. In the past, even past the three or four title contenders, you would have really tough 7-9 win teams in the SEC that would have done major damage in any other conference. Teams like Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Kentucky were tough outs during the 6 year championship run. All of those teams beat a SEC champ in a year they won the MNC. Outside of their championship year, Auburn was pretty good under Tuberville and decent before this year. Tennessee used to win conference games. All of those teams suck now and the addition of A&M doesn't make up for that loss of depth.

This year, I don't see how the SEC grind is any different than the Big 12 or the PAC-12. I think the Big 12 is the most grinding league this year considering that they have one lousy team and 7-9 bowl teams that would likely be bowl teams in any league (Baylor probably won't make it, I suppose WVU might not too). And the PAC-12 is right up there with the resurgence of Oregon St., Arizona, and UCLA.

Boise State has one big game a year.

This I agree with, and they were getting tripped up in the Mountain West once a year.
   411. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:46 AM (#4300421)
A&M played in one BCS game, as they knocked KSU out of the first BCS title game in that WTF 2OT defeat of K State in the '98 XII CCG. A&M was handled by tOSU in the Sugar if I recall.
   412. cmd600 Posted: November 12, 2012 at 01:35 PM (#4300615)
While I don't disagree too much with the sentiment...part of it is the grind of the SEC (or the Big 12 or even PAC-12, though I think the SEC grind is tougher) week in and week out that causes issues. Boise State has one big game a year. South Carolina had a stretch of Georgia, at LSU, at Florida


A couple issues here. That three weeks was their season though. Fine, that tops Boise's one major non-conference foe and whoever ends up respectable out of the MWC. But three weeks is nowhere close to a week in week out gauntlet. And they went 1-2 during that stretch anyway. When their season was on the line, and they had the chance to be national title contenders instead of playing in the Peach Bowl, they did no better than what we'd expect out of these other fairly highly ranked teams we're discussing.
   413. steagles Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:08 AM (#4301149)
so, a few years ago, temple was kicked out of the big east, and starting next season, they're back.

since the big east will have 12 teams, the conference will be divided into two divisions. the division that temple will be in will include boise state, san diego state, houston, SMU, and memphis. isn't that wonderful.
   414. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:11 AM (#4301174)
Why were they kicked out?
   415. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:22 AM (#4301209)
Why were they kicked out?


for majorly sucking at football. That and they had nil fan support. The NCAA at the I-A level has loose rules over minimum average attendance and Temple wasn't even coming close to hitting it.

I think Temple won 14 conference games in 14 years or something like that, beating Rutgers 5 of those times.
   416. cmd600 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:41 AM (#4301219)
Some more poll-bashing from me.

Even though I've generally disagreed with Wetzel's with-blinders view of "BCS = bad, playoff = good", I'm glad to see I'm not the only one ranting about how bad the polls are.
   417. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:56 AM (#4301228)
The problem with Wetzel (as it relates to his college football writing) is he should be writing about baseball, given how much he seems to hate everything about college football, and everything sucks. He'd fit right in w Pearlman et al. He does troll for these columns as I think he's taken every position on this to make his 'this sucks' point about the BCS, blaming the coaches poll, Harris poll, hating the computers, favoring computers. He's also a little disingenuous about how ND was always way way behind KSU in the 'polls'.
   418. SoSH U at work Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:34 AM (#4301272)
The problem with Wetzel (as it relates to his college football writing) is he should be writing about baseball, given how much he seems to hate everything about college football, and everything sucks.


No kidding.

And as a longtime playoff opponent, nothing is more irksome than when idiots like him will spout with four weeks left in the season, "see this is the perfect season for a playoff (or plus-1), with all these unbeatens," ignoring that those things often have a way of sorting themselves out (which started last week, and I suspect will continue, leaving us with two or only one unbeatens at season's end).

   419. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:43 AM (#4301282)

so, a few years ago, temple was kicked out of the big east, and starting next season, they're back.


Starting next season? They're in the Big East THIS season!


I can understand why they stashed Temple in the West. The last thing they wanted to do is piss of a Louisville or Cincy...if Temple doesn't like it they can go back to the MAC. I'm sure they were told this was a possibility when they accepted the invite.

The Big East East is ok. The Big East West is basically a mid major pastiche. Adding BYU would definitely help.
   420. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:47 AM (#4301290)
And as a longtime playoff opponent, nothing is more irksome than when idiots like him will spout with four weeks left in the season, "see this is the perfect season for a playoff (or plus-1), with all these unbeatens," ignoring that those things often have a way of sorting themselves out (which started last week, and I suspect will continue, leaving us with two or only one unbeatens at season's end).

Oh yeah, you can just feel it now can't you? Now that Alabama lost, all of a sudden everyone looks so much more vulnerable. Oregon has their toughest stretch coming up, Texas all of a sudden looks like a team that could push K-State and Notre Dame looks vulnerable enough to lose to USC.

I still think two of them will get through it, at least, I really hope two of them do, but I think it is extremely unlikely we will have three unbeatens at the end of the year.

Just about any criticism of the process or the rankings before the end of the season is foolish. It usually works itself out by the end of the season.

   421. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:03 PM (#4301303)
Wetzel's book in a nutshell:

College football is terrible because money has corrupted it. Solution: more money.
   422. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:07 PM (#4301307)
Nearly every year, the pundits spend the first 2/3 of the season arguing that we're gonna have 4 unbeatens and which ones "deserve" to be in the title game.

Then "shocking" upsets occur, and the last couple weeks are a debate over which 1-loss team "deserves" to be in the title game.
   423. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:17 PM (#4301323)
since the big east will have 12 teams, the conference will be divided into two divisions. the division that temple will be in will include boise state, san diego state, houston, SMU, and memphis. isn't that wonderful.

I'm ok with it as long as the conference is renamed "Conference USA" and the football affiliations have absolutely nothing to do with the affiliations for other sports.
   424. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:21 PM (#4301332)
The Big East East is ok. The Big East West is basically a mid major pastiche. Adding BYU would definitely help.

I think the guaranteed access for the highest ranked team in the remaining five conferences is going to be great for them. I have a hard time seeing how Rutgers, Louisville, Boise or Cincy (maybe a Houston or San Diego St. sprinkled in there) isn't going to be the highest ranked team out of the remaining non-power conference squads. So they basically retain their auto-bid, and have a much better chance of landing a team in the top four than the top 2. The new commissioner did alright considering the extremely weak position he inherited. Now the conference just needs to hold on to Strong, Jones, and Peterson.
   425. SoSH U at work Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:28 PM (#4301343)
since the big east will have 12 teams, the conference will be divided into two divisions. the division that temple will be in will include boise state, san diego state, houston, SMU, and memphis. isn't that wonderful.


The Pioneer League was just ahead of its time.

   426. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 12:40 PM (#4301356)
I think the guaranteed access for the highest ranked team in the remaining five conferences is going to be great for them. I have a hard time seeing how Rutgers, Louisville, Boise or Cincy (maybe a Houston or San Diego St. sprinkled in there) isn't going to be the highest ranked team out of the remaining non-power conference squads. So they basically retain their auto-bid, and have a much better chance of landing a team in the top four than the top 2.

They will usually claim that spot, but 10 to 20 percent of the time they won't. So while they are still ahead of the rest of the mid-majors, they are slowly losing ground.
   427. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 13, 2012 at 01:24 PM (#4301408)
Yeah, it will USUALLY work out for them, for now...though in the long run it is more likely they fall back to the pack than that they clearly establish themselves as the sixth best conference.

Look at this year, Kent State (#25 AP) and LA Tech (#20) are right there with Rutgers (#22) and Louisville (#19).
   428. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:24 PM (#4301474)
So while they are still ahead of the rest of the mid-majors, they are slowly losing ground.

True, but that makes sense since they have lost three programs that had the most tradition in the conference. They were going to take a step down, deservedly, after what happened the last few years. But this is a pretty strong outcome considering how the conference had been gutted over the last decade.

Look at this year, Kent State (#25 AP) and LA Tech (#20) are right there with Rutgers (#22) and Louisville (#19).

Cincy would have to beat Rutgers and then Rutgers would have to beat Louisville for that to work out. And LA Tech and Kent State would have to finish with one loss, which is not guaranteed since they both have two tough conference games coming up. I mean, it will happen some years, but I think the Big East should be safe most years. Their new TV deal and the top tier of the conference should be enough to separate them from the other mid major conferences.
   429. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:32 PM (#4301479)
I haven't followed this stuff lately, so, what are the prospects for future stability in the Big East? Is the Big 12 looking to add a couple more members to get back to 12 and get a conference championship?
   430. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4301494)
I haven't followed this stuff lately, so, what are the prospects for future stability in the Big East? Is the Big 12 looking to add a couple more members to get back to 12 and get a conference championship?

Nobody seems to want any of the other members. I'd say they are fairly safe/stable for now, although mediocre. If all goes to plan they will be at 12 next year and 14 the year after. If they can entice BYU to join, they will have some decent "brands": Louisville, Cincy, Boise, BYU, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn....keep an eye on Central Florida that could surpass USF in short order.
   431. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 13, 2012 at 02:51 PM (#4301500)
Is the Big 12 looking to add a couple more members to get back to 12 and get a conference championship?

For the sake of West Virginia ever being relevant again, I hope they do. I don't think so though. This article briefly touches on Louisville and the Big 12, and indicates the Big 12 is not interested in expanding.
   432. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 03:34 PM (#4301561)
Nobody seems to want any of the other members. I'd say they are fairly safe/stable for now, although mediocre. If all goes to plan they will be at 12 next year and 14 the year after. If they can entice BYU to join, they will have some decent "brands": Louisville, Cincy, Boise, BYU, Rutgers, South Florida, UConn....keep an eye on Central Florida that could surpass USF in short order.


You'd think the Big East might want to buy early on the middle tier Louisiana schools that have been giving people fits this year. Those seem to be the next USF/UCF type of programs.
   433. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:14 PM (#4301653)
I still think the solution is to get rid of some FBS schools and go from there. Instead Georgia State is being added to the Sun Belt next season for some reason and we will be at 126 FBS schools when it should be about 40 schools fewer.
   434. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4301689)
I still think the solution is to get rid of some FBS schools and go from there. Instead Georgia State is being added to the Sun Belt next season for some reason and we will be at 126 FBS schools when it should be about 40 schools fewer.

The first time I missed the fewer and thought you only wanted 40 FBS schools. Big difference.

I wonder what a lot of the new FBS schools get out of going up a level. It costs much more money to have a FBS program and I'm not sure the financial gain from being part of the Sunbelt conference makes up for that. There is practically no hope for these programs to ever really achieve any meaningful success at that level. I suppose it might raise the school's profile for application purposes, but it still seems like a high risk, low reward move for these schools.
   435. cmd600 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:49 PM (#4301697)
432 - Those Louisiana schools aren't going anywhere better than the Big East anytime soon and aren't too far removed from being a couple of the worst teams in Division 1. The Big East has time to make sure that they're long past any 3 or 4 wins in the Sun Belt or C-USA seasons.

433 - Sure, that would be nice for us big program fans, and eliminating quite a few early season scrimmages would have to mean more inter-BCS conference games, which are always fun, but I'm not sure how you're going to tell UMass and Texas St that they don't get at least a chance at some of that huge D1 football money.

434 - Occam's Razor. UMass didn't move up to both get blown out and go broke.
   436. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 13, 2012 at 05:55 PM (#4301709)
Let me just say that 4 of the newest FBS programs: South Alabama, Texas St, UT-San Antonio, and Georgia State did not even have football teams 5 or 6 years ago (or at the very least not even 10 years ago). Georgia State started up their program in 2010.
   437. Howie Menckel Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:04 PM (#4301716)

http://www.thebiglead.com/index.php/2012/11/13/big-east-temple-may-be-screwed-with-unwieldy-western-division/

driving mileage distance from Temple to the other Big East schools:

East: Rutgers (59), UConn (244), Cincinnati (574), Louisville (673), Central Florida (992), South Florida (1,042)

West: Memphis (1,015), SMU (1,465), Houston (1,547), Boise State (2,441), San Diego State (2,701), Temple

So Memphis is closer for Temple fans than South Florida is! I see no problem.

This only goes for 2013-14. Then Navy arrives in 2015 (yes, really) plus another school like Air Force or BYU or - well, we haven't exactly boxed ourselves in geographically here, have we?

   438. zenbitz Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4301719)
Well, I don't know how long it's going to take but I think eventually there will be 64 FBS-A teams in 4 16 team conferences (SEC,B"12",B1G and ACC), and no one cares how many FBS-B teams.

Probably by the time Div IA college football is "officially" pro and tosses off the fetters of the NCAA.

   439. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:06 PM (#4301720)
Doesn't Ga. State also play games at the Georgia Dome for some really dumb reason. They had a game this year I think I read where they were dropping cash from the rafters onto the field at half and it still drew some pathetically low number. In fact I think the headline was "More Cash than Fans" They routinely are routed by the New Hamphshires and Richmonds.

Tulane also plays in the Superdome, yeah that makes sense.
   440. PeteF3 Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:10 PM (#4301723)
Tulane is building an on-campus stadium. Also don't forget UTSA is playing their games in the AlamoDome.
   441. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4301725)
Well, I don't know how long it's going to take but I think eventually there will be 64 FBS-A teams in 4 16 team conferences (SEC,B"12",B1G and ACC), and no one cares how many FBS-B teams.

Never going to happen. There may be four conferences some day, but they won't be a pretty little 16x4. Reality gets in the way of fan dreams.

   442. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:16 PM (#4301726)
Also, those four conferences will never consume the P12. If it goes to four, B12 or ACC will be the one that disappears.
   443. smileyy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4301746)
[438] I feel like that would also create a schism between college basketball and college football, changing the definition of conferences as far as athletic affiliation goes.
   444. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:34 PM (#4301755)
I suppose it might raise the school's profile for application purposes, but it still seems like a high risk, low reward move for these schools.


Georgia State is fielding a football program to drive applications. They want to cease to be "the other GSU" and "the commuter campus in downtown Atlanta." At this point, GA State has a lower profile *as a university* than Georgia Southern (the "real GSU") and they don't like that.

GA State plays home games in the GA Dome because they don't have any other facility to play at. They won't be building a college only stadium any time soon, and if the Falcons actually manage to sucker Gwinnett into building them a new outdoor stadium GSU will be the only regular occupant of the Dome.
   445. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:45 PM (#4301772)
Doesn't Ga. State also play games at the Georgia Dome for some really dumb reason.

Tulane also plays in the Superdome, yeah that makes sense.


Why are you saying these don't make sense? Playing in an existing stadium instead of building your own sounds like the obvious thing to do for a marginal program.
   446. smileyy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:47 PM (#4301773)
Playing in an existing stadium instead of building your own sounds like the obvious thing to do for a marginal program.


An on-campus stadium gets students to your game and everyone else to your campus.
   447. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4301783)
Yeah, six days a year.
   448. zenbitz Posted: November 13, 2012 at 06:55 PM (#4301784)
Oh, I wrote ACC instead of PAC-16.
   449. smileyy Posted: November 13, 2012 at 07:03 PM (#4301793)
[447] Fair point -- an on-campus basketball stadium is less investment for more return. But there's also something about building a stadium that's the right size for you, rather than playing in someone else's half-empty arena, because you can't fill it up.
   450. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:15 PM (#4301957)
Georgia State is fielding a football program to drive applications. They want to cease to be "the other GSU" and "the commuter campus in downtown Atlanta." At this point, GA State has a lower profile *as a university* than Georgia Southern (the "real GSU") and they don't like that.

Can you drive applications being a joke? Georgia State is 1-10 this year. And moving up to FBS status next year? Sounds like a disaster.
   451. Tripon Posted: November 13, 2012 at 09:46 PM (#4301992)
There's an old story that there was a vote between the students for the creation of a Football team, or a new library for the University of California, Irvine campus. They picked the library like the nerds they (and me) are.

To this day, the student store sells "Undefeated in Football" T-shirts.
   452. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:18 PM (#4302012)
Why are you saying these don't make sense? Playing in an existing stadium instead of building your own sounds like the obvious thing to do for a marginal program.


It calls into the question the logic of having the program.
   453. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:44 PM (#4302038)
I may be crazy but if nd does go undefeated they might jump someone in the polls if all win out to that point.
   454. SoSH U at work Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:50 PM (#4302045)
I may be crazy but if nd does go undefeated they might jump someone in the polls if all win out to that point.


I can't see it happening, even if ND blasts USC (unlikely) and Oregon only slips by them in the Pac-10 title game. ND has only one good opponent left - KSU has two and Oregon has three.
   455. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 13, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4302048)
If Alabama cannot sneak into national title game, I am hoping for an Alabama-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl.
   456. Mike Webber Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:04 PM (#4302055)
Inge - the Rose Bowl may not have a Pac 12 eligible team if Oregon is in the title game, and with the first or second pick I think they fill their slot with the Irish. I can't see the Fiesta passing on ND, who knows?
I think for Bama to play ND, you'd have to have a different SEC team in the title game, which could happen I suppose.
   457. Spivey Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:06 PM (#4302057)
ND has no chance of jumping KSU if both win out. They are very unlikely to jump Oregon either, since Oregon's computer ratings will go up with Stanford and Oregon State wins.

I think it's more likely than not that at least one loses.
   458. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:09 PM (#4302064)
Inge - the Rose Bowl may not have a Pac 12 eligible team if Oregon is in the title game, and with the first or second pick I think they fill their slot with the Irish. I can't see the Fiesta passing on ND, who knows?
I think for Bama to play ND, you'd have to have a different SEC team in the title game, which could happen I suppose.


Well then it has to be for the title game!
   459. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:11 PM (#4302068)
If Kansas State were to go to the NCG and Bama lost the SEC championship then they could meet in the Fiesta... or am I wrong?

EDIT: "They" being Alabama and ND.
   460. Mike Webber Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:25 PM (#4302081)
Well then it has to be for the title game!

Wonder what the odds of that are? Like maybe 5%?
You just need Bama to win 3 times - and I think it is dang near 100% the win the next 2. Maybe 66/33 in SEC title game? So 66%
Notre Dame to win two, lets say they do that 75%
Let's give Oregon a 90% chance to win each of their three games, two are at home and at OrSt, they do that 73% of the time.
KSU I'd say is about a 75% chance to win each of the next two, so 56% to win out. Oh, Spivey, I meant 100% they beat Baylor and 56% they bear UT - only cause it is in Manhattan - so 56%.
Invert the KSU and Oregon win%, multiply it all up,
5.62% chance Bama and ND play in title game.
YMMV
   461. Mike Webber Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:27 PM (#4302083)
Pops, that is technically correct, as long as the Rose Bowl didn't poach ND. Right now there is no Pac 12 team other than Oregon eligible for a BCS bowl.
   462. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 13, 2012 at 11:50 PM (#4302098)
Can you drive applications being a joke? Georgia State is 1-10 this year. And moving up to FBS status next year? Sounds like a disaster.


Yes. Going from "no visibility whatsoever" to "a school with a program that you might start for" is a recruitment tool. Drive down I-16, the corridor from Macon to Savannah. You'll see four or five GA State billboards. They're targeting the Georgia Southern student demographic, and their selling point is "you can go to this D-II school in Statesboro, or you can go to this D-I school in Atlanta and play for a bowl eligible program."
   463. DA Baracus Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4302123)
Yes. Going from "no visibility whatsoever" to "a school with a program that you might start for" is a recruitment tool.


But is it worth the financial losses having a shitty Sun Belt program has?
   464. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:25 AM (#4302124)
So who are they going to target after Curry retires?
   465. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:40 AM (#4302132)
But is it worth the financial losses having a shitty Sun Belt program has?


I don't know. The admin says yes. More than a few folks in the city say no. The GSU2 program is not unfraught with controversy.
   466. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 14, 2012 at 01:13 AM (#4302150)
My knowledge of Ga State's program consists of chatting to an Atlanta native on a flight home after I went to a DH of games last year @ GT and @ Athens. His take was Georgia State was suckered into this by a consultant they paid way too much money for who convinced the school's administration that the key to being a 'bigger school' was FBS football. He said they should go play at Herndon Stadium (honestly don't know where this is) but that wouldn't get them into the FBS discussion, must be too small I'm guessing.

I've been told that the real GSU (and App St for that matter) have turned down the Sun Belt at least once, hoping for CUSA, or some other league to come calling. The way Ga State draws, I don't think being in the Sun Belt is going to get them out a 'probationary' period as it relates to attendance, although as I've stated before, if somebody can show me how the NCAA applies its own rules re: attendance, I'll buy you something of value. There are a few MAC teams that seemingly are perpetually in violation of the 'rolling 2 year period of 15k average attendance, w/o consequence. Temple's eviction from the BE the first time was about the only time I recall actual punishment.
   467. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 14, 2012 at 11:02 AM (#4302267)
Somehow, all the FCS teams think they are better off financially being a terrible FBS team. Northern Iowa is considering making the switch.

Agree that the NCAA attendance minimums are basically ignored. Herndon Stadium holds 15k, so if they sellout every game they'll make the minimums. And if they don't, the NCAA won't do anything about it.

Check out this MAC attendance report: http://bleacherreport.com/articles/432825-football-attendance

The entire conference averaged 15,317 in 2009. EMU averaged 5,106!
   468. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 14, 2012 at 11:58 AM (#4302323)
Besides the money drop, I do remember a few years ago Middle Tennessee State having a Big Boi concert after a football game to help boost their numbers to the minimum. Cost of admission was a ticket to the game. I heard the concert was a joke.
   469. DA Baracus Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:08 PM (#4302342)
I don't know. The admin says yes. More than a few folks in the city say no. The GSU2 program is not unfraught with controversy.


The answer is no. Most of these teams lose money. They're going to need the extra enrollment when they have to raise tuition to pay for it.

They don't draw because they're a commuter school in a major city with no historical fan base and they hope they can pick up the scraps on the much better in-state teams. Yeah, we really needed another FIU and FAU.
   470. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:12 PM (#4302351)
There was an article last year in the CMU student newspaper revealing that the attendance figures are basically made up. They include tickets given away for nothing, whether or not the tickets are actually used.
   471. Rickey! On a blog from 1998. With the candlestick. Posted: November 14, 2012 at 12:52 PM (#4302417)
Herndon Stadium is on the Morris Brown campus (built back when Morris Brown was trying to get into the DI athletics game.) It's further away from GSU2, physically, than the GA Dome.
   472. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 14, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4302887)
Some big time MACtion tonight! Just think, in a couple years, games like these could have an effect on who plays in one of the six major bowls.
   473. smileyy Posted: November 14, 2012 at 09:07 PM (#4302985)
Is there any truth to the rumor that I just started that the NCAA keeps the MAC around as a D-I conference to give Big 10 schools someone to play early in the season?
   474. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 15, 2012 at 09:00 AM (#4303201)
I heard that somewhere on the internet today.
   475. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 15, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4303267)

Is there any truth to the rumor that I just started that the NCAA keeps the MAC around as a D-I conference to give Big 10 schools someone to play early in the season?


And quite often, lately, someone to lose to.

Central Michigan beat Iowa, Ohio beat Penn State, and Northern Illinois beat Indiana.
   476. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: November 15, 2012 at 11:49 AM (#4303304)
Hey, the MAC teams have a lot of diehard fans. Well, the ones in Michigan and Ohio do. At least they aren't commuter schools like FIU, FAU, USF, UCF, UKF, UTF, ULF, FPU, FGU, FCU, etc.
   477. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4304792)
Love seeing Hawaii play a road game in 20 ish degree weather. They are actually hanging in there at USAFA. Hawaii has been dreadful this season.
   478. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 01:37 AM (#4304808)
Air Force wins, 21-7, with zero pass attempts. First time for AFA since 1992. I know it happened a couple years ago w somebody, but I don't think a BCS conference school has done this since OU against CU in '86 or '87.
   479. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:15 PM (#4304966)
Great article about Chip Kelly on Grantland.
   480. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4304971)
not that CU is doing anything on offense, but U-Dub can't seem to score, 0-0 midway in 2nd. BIG conference officials are really bad. Noticeably empty seats at PSU, at UM and MSU today.
   481. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4304984)
Indeed good piece on Kelly. I so badly want to see an NFL team fully invest in allowing a coach to implement an offense like this. Of course anything short of winning a SB will be deemed a failure, never mind the same schlep we see from bad NFL teams running west coast offenses. It can only improve pro football.
   482. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4304987)
VA Tech is down 3 to BC in the third quarter. If they lose, this will be their first season without a bowl since 1992.
   483. Tripon Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4304996)
What exactly is the West Coast Offense? It seems to be a catch all term for 'shitty offense'.
   484. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4304999)
WCO= short, more horizontal passing scheme (less emphasis on run) and it is meant to be ball control, short routes, efficient, i.e Bill Walsh. That's great and all, but at the college level, you're best bet isn't to work on a 10 play 80 yard drive, these are kids and it ignores the greater reality, which is mismatches which are much greater at the collegiate level, hence clowns like Billy C and Weis fail misearably at this in college as they place emphasis on a college QB and Wr to run short routes and play this ball control offense waiting for these 5 and 8 yard routes to take them down the field.

note: oddly enough, the genesis of the offense can be traced to LaVell Edwards at BYU in the mid 70s.
   485. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:00 PM (#4305001)
hence clowns like Billy C and Weis fail misearably at this in college as they place emphasis on a college QB and Wr to run short routes and play this ball control offense waiting for these 5 and 8 yard routes to take them down the field.

Hey, bootlegs are still cool!

Wofford was moving the ball really well against South Carolina until they fumbled near inside the Gamecock 30. Still 7-7 though.
   486. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4305006)
Florida's up 17-0 on Jacksonville State with about eight minutes to go in the third quarter. And I actually find that acceptable.

This is one of the weirdest, least-entertaining, least-impressive 10-win teams I can remember.
   487. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:09 PM (#4305009)
This is the weirdest, least-entertaining, least-impressive 10-win teams I can remember.

They seem to have gotten worse over the course of the season. The FSU game should be telling. I don't think UF will win, but they have beaten some impressive teams this year, so maybe they will rise to the occasion again.
   488. steagles Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:10 PM (#4305010)
What exactly is the West Coast Offense? It seems to be a catch all term for 'shitty offense'.
well, the west coast offense is kind of ubiquitous these days, in that, everyone (well, except for the triple option teams) runs it. when people refer to it these days, i would say that 90% of the time, what they're referring to is the QB making quick reads and getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

now, the thing about the WCO is that it really can bog down if you have a poor QB, or if your receivers can't break off big chunks of yardage after the catch. when that happens, you get a lot of 3 or 4 yard catches/incompletions, and it makes for a lot of really short possessions.
   489. Tripon Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4305014)
I really dislike the SEC scheduling crappy games in the middle of Nov. You're supposed to be the top conference year in and year out. Act like it.
   490. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:16 PM (#4305017)
They seem to have gotten worse over the course of the season. The FSU game should be telling. I don't think UF will win, but they have beaten some impressive teams this year, so maybe they will rise to the occasion again.


I think all of this is right. Through the LSU game, the offense's numbers were bleh-to-bad, but I still thought the offense was basically effective at what it wanted to do (running the ball, preventing turnovers). Starting with the USC(e) game, the whole thing just collapsed into "Bad would be an improvement" position.

But those wins against A&M, LSU and South Carolina are great freaking wins. So...I don't know. It might just be a fluky season of the kind we see from time-to-time.

I'm not expecting Florida to beat FSU. FSU's defensive line is going to shred UF.
   491. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4305022)
So Wofford v SoCar, this is a 2 v 15 seed type of upset, eh?
   492. smileyy Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4305026)
[491] I'm pretty sure that _has_ been some sort of NCAA Tournament upset before.
   493. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4305029)
yeah, I think 4 times or something like that.

nvermind, 24-7 late.
   494. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4305033)
nvermind, 24-7 late.

Yeah, USCe woke up after the fumble. Too bad, Wofford looked like they had a shot today. Still, pretty uninspired play from a top ten team against a FCS team, albeit a pretty good FCS team.
   495. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:39 PM (#4305036)
UCLA looks like a much better team than USC early. Mora really deserves some coach of the year consideration this year.
   496. cmd600 Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:40 PM (#4305037)
which is mismatches which are much greater at the collegiate level


Isn't this why Kelly should probably avoid the NFL? Not that he can't succeed there, but his scheme is about finding someone with speed matched up one on one with a LB who will never make the NFL. I don't see how he's going to do that at the next level.

Also, I'm really hoping South Carolina moves up a spot or two in the polls, and no complaints about it.
   497. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4305042)
Also, I'm really hoping South Carolina moves up a spot or two in the polls, and no complaints about it.

The only way the shine is gonna come off the SEC also-rans is if they lose out of conference. I think South Carolina and Florida are good bets to go down against their ACC rivals.

If they play decent teams in bowls they will also be in danger, but chances are they are going to get teams that are the 3rd-5th best in the Big Ten or ACC and they probably won't lose to a team like that, unless they get Michigan or Nebraska.
   498. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4305050)
Let me declare this now, as a Nebraska alum, they are still good for laying another big egg, that will happen if they face UF, LSU or So Car (again). I like their chances vs ND in the Rose, should that happen.
   499. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 04:56 PM (#4305052)
Is it just me or has refereeing been a significant problem this season?
   500. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 17, 2012 at 05:06 PM (#4305059)
yeah, Big Ten officiating has been bad. Way too many PI calls (though they swallowed it at the end of NW v MSU). really bad.
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