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Thursday, November 01, 2012

OT: November College Football Thread.

Alabama Is still Ranked #1.  Will they hold steady to repeat? Make it to the title game?  Or does another team claim the Crystal ball in Miami in January.

odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 01, 2012 at 01:43 PM | 3408 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: college football

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   601. Tripon Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:28 AM (#4305425)
If tonight means anything, its that pretending we know who the best team in the country is by the last unbeaten team is dumb.
   602. Mike A Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:35 AM (#4305428)
I'm not sure playing 2012 wvu is good for a team's sos.

Valid point, though at the time FSU/West Virginia was supposed to be a big game.

FSU apparently called 80 or so teams to replace WVU on the schedule, and the only one they could get was Savannah State. And as bad as WVU is, they're probably better than an 1-10 MEAC team. Probably.
   603. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:53 AM (#4305431)
Love thee notre dame
   604. CFBF Is A Golden Spider Duck Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:59 AM (#4305432)
Can't we just name the 1995 Nebraska Cornhuskers this year's champion and move on?
   605. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: November 18, 2012 at 03:16 AM (#4305435)
So once again the kvetching about the possibility of four undefeated teams was for nought.

Let the kvetching about the chance of no undefeated teams begin!
   606. Spivey Posted: November 18, 2012 at 03:58 AM (#4305438)
FSU is ranked 12th in predictor. Yes, FSU gets screwed by the "computers" because they don't take into account SOS. But that was a political bullshit decision made by people who aren't qualified to be making that decision. I have to drive this home because it's not the computers that think FSU isn't a top 25 team. It's humans. And then the humans act like it is the computers. Everyone involved with college football rankings should be carpet bombed - it's a joke.
   607. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 11:10 AM (#4305472)
I'd like to congratulate the UGA Bulldogs for advancing to Dec 1's de facto national championship game.
   608. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 12:30 PM (#4305505)
I'm not sure playing 2012 wvu is good for a team's sos.

Still a little nauseous from last night. That was painful.

No way a Florida squad that barely put away ULL and Mizzou gets to the title game. I can't believe I'll be rooting as hard as I am going to be for FSU.
   609. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 18, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4305508)
Still a little nauseous from last night. That was painful.


If your defense can't stop anyone, there's a little more than two minutes left and you only need a FG to win, I'm not sure the deep ball is the best decision. Good lord, you've got to be aware of your limitations.

   610. hokieneer Posted: November 18, 2012 at 12:46 PM (#4305513)
Thanks Spivey for #606. The voters/media treat the "computers" like their whipping boy, and that's precisely what "the computers" are designed to be.
   611. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 12:48 PM (#4305514)
Oregon is still #5 in Sagarin's ratings despite the loss (they were #5 before the game as well). Florida State finally breaks into the top 25 at #23 (22 if you remove Ohio State). Florida is #2 after Notre Dame.

The Anderson/Hester ratings are not out yet, but it will be very difficult for Florida State to move up much from 16, considering everyone above them won except Oregon and K-State, and they won't pass those 2. Also, UCLA beat USC, so Florida State could possibly drop a rank to UCLA.

Same for the Billingsley, except that Florida State will pass Texas Tech for sure. They will be down near 16 still.
Same for Colley. 14 last week and not easily moving up.
Same for Peter & the Wolf. Around 16 and going nowhere.

Massey ratings: probably around 20 or 21 is my guess.

The real question is how far can Florida State rise with a win over Florida? If they win and Notre Dame loses, Florida State will almost certainly be #2 in the human polls, but likely not high enough in the computer polls to pass a 1 loss Oregon ranked #3 in the country by the human polls, or if Oregon loses again, then a 1 loss Notre Dame or K-State ranked #3in the human polls.

Is there any chance the voters will rank a 2 loss SEC team over K-State with 1 loss?

   612. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4305522)
wow georigas coach must have given them there only number 1 vote in the coaches poll (nd hass 54 bama 2)
   613. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 01:34 PM (#4305523)
and ND gets every vote in the AP poll.

georgia is number 3 in both, how did that happen?
   614. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4305526)
What is interesting is that the AP seems to be taking the relative weighting of the conferences into account much more than the coaches and the Harris poll. Florida State is still at #9 (without Ohio State) in the AP,and now #5 in the Coaches. Also, another interesting subplot, Florida State trails Oregon by a tiny margin in the Coaches poll. With a win over Florida would that change? Probably, but it's impossible to say for sure.
   615. SoSHially Unacceptable Posted: November 18, 2012 at 01:53 PM (#4305536)
georgia is number 3 in both, how did that happen?


They beat both Ole Miss AND Auburn.

Georgia's ranking is a joke. They've beaten one good team, and got hammered by the other.

   616. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4305538)
Georgia's ranking is a joke.


Regardless of who wins the SEC championship game, the "national title game" will be a Florida vs Ohio State type blowout (assuming ND doesn't lose to USC next week.)
   617. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:16 PM (#4305543)
Rickey have you watched any football this year? I really don't think ND is going to get blown out, and it's hard to call the conference title game the NTG when the best team in the nation isnt even in the conference.
   618. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:18 PM (#4305546)
I really don't think ND is going to get blown out, and it's hard to call the conference title game the NTG when the best team in the nation isnt even in the conference.


Alabama is still in the SEC.
   619. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:26 PM (#4305549)
I know this but they are not the best team in the nation.
   620. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4305551)
I know this but they are not the best team in the nation.


Well, Oregon just lost and that's about the only team that really has a claim. I know you're in the tank for the Irish, meatwad, but they're not the best team in the nation. They're a good team that's played one, maybe two decent teams all year.
   621. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:38 PM (#4305555)
My guess is the best team is still Alabama. I certainly expect them to win the championship now. On the other hand, I wouldn't be shocked if Georgia or Notre Dame (or Florida or Oregon, if it comes to that) beat them.
   622. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:47 PM (#4305557)
If your defense can't stop anyone, there's a little more than two minutes left and you only need a FG to win, I'm not sure the deep ball is the best decision. Good lord, you've got to be aware of your limitations.

I see what you're saying, but you can't not score that late in the game when you have the opportunity. But you are right, I didn't see how they were going to stop them, and even when it looked like they might, I just sorta knew they wouldn't. This is a team that could easily be 7-3 with a non-terrible secondary, instead, they will be lucky to be 7-5. I suppose, at least, I feel more confident that they can beat Iowa St. and Kansas with Austin at TB.

And I'm happy that Austin got the opportunity to shine that brightly, even on a non-entity of a team. I really love Austin.

Well, Oregon just lost and that's about the only team that really has a claim. I know you're in the tank for the Irish, meatwad, but they're not the best team in the nation. They're a good team that's played one, maybe two decent teams all year.

A loss at home to Stanford isn't appreciably different than a loss at home to Texas A&M. And Alabama will have played 3 decent teams and lost to one of them.

That said, I'm fine with Bama getting the MNC bid over Oregon. Benefit of the doubt for the SEC and the reigning champs and a slightly better schedule. I don't think Bama will blow out ND though, they don't have the offense to put up a lot of points on a defense that talented. The X factor will be how much Kelly can coach up the ND offense during the down time before the game.
   623. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4305558)
The MNC should be the SEC Championship Game winner vs Oregon. But barring a loss to USC, some fool will put ND in there instead.
   624. cmd600 Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:54 PM (#4305559)
The MNC should be the SEC Championship Game winner


As long as it's Alabama. No one else in the SEC has anything resembling a claim that they belong in the title game over the other contenders.

Regardless of who wins the SEC championship game, the "national title game" will be a Florida vs Ohio State type blowout


Right, Georgia will get rolled.

I get that Alabama is the most talented team in the nation, and is a deserving title game participant. That doesn't mean anyone else in the SEC is too.
   625. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 02:59 PM (#4305563)
The MNC should be the SEC Championship Game winner vs Oregon. But barring a loss to USC, some fool will put ND in there instead.

You might be right, that healthy, Oregon is better than ND. But there isn't a significant strength of schedule difference and Oregon just lost to a team ND beat (sorta). I don't know much about the history of the sport, but I can't imagine a time where this situation would shake out any differently. I would have much rather seen Oregon play Bama, and that's still on the table, but you can't just eyeball test a team that played and beat 11 BCS caliber teams (3 ranked but one is BC) and no FCS squads out of the game when there are no other unbeatens.
   626. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 18, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4305570)
Cant wait to go see Rutgers st the Big House.
   627. The Yankee Clapper Posted: November 18, 2012 at 04:32 PM (#4305583)
SEC is 0-3 against the Big East. Probably needs to be dropped from the BCS for that.
   628. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 04:44 PM (#4305588)
SEC is 0-3 against the Big East. Probably needs to be dropped from the BCS for that


0-3 in what games?

Found them. Rutgers over Arkansas, Syracuse over Missouri, Louisville over Kentucky.

Amusing quirk in the scheduling pitted the best of the Big East against (almost) the worst of the SEC.
   629. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 04:45 PM (#4305590)
I'm sure those 3 wins were against KY and Vandy.
   630. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 04:52 PM (#4305592)
Hey now. Vanderbilt might finish the season 8-4, with losses to 3 teams in the top 10! (and a fourth against Northwestern)

Edit: (I meant 8-4 all along)
   631. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:02 PM (#4305594)
I'd put a lot of money on ND losing to USC, Oregon losing to Oregon State, so we're stuck with an all SEC national championship. College football is such an incredible joke, I can't believe so many people invest so much time and money into such a stupid endeavor.
   632. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4305599)
I'd put a lot of money on ND losing to USC, Oregon losing to Oregon State, so we're stuck with an all SEC national championship.

Excellent. I would like to take you up on that.
   633. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4305608)
Miss. St crept back into the rankings. They have beaten two teams with winning records, Middle Tennessee St. and Jackson St. I hope Ole Miss beats them next week.

I'd put a lot of money on ND losing to USC, Oregon losing to Oregon State, so we're stuck with an all SEC national championship.

That would also require Texas beating K-State and Florida beating FSU. Seems like a long shot. Also, USC probably isn't beating ND. They aren't a good team.
   634. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4305609)
Arkansas? Auburn?

I love the "but this year's bad SEC teams lost to other conferences" argument.

ND would be 7-3 in the SEC.
   635. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:28 PM (#4305611)
ND would be 7-3 in the SEC.

That really depends on the schedule. If they had Bama's, for example, or Georgia's, they would probably have one loss, maybe two, maybe none.
   636. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:34 PM (#4305613)
If USC beats Notre Dame, and Florida beats Florida State, I think Florida will be playing for the championship. They are a lock for #2 in the computer polls, and could even be #1(in that scenario). The human polls would have them at worst 4th, behind Alabama, Oregon, and possibly Notre Dame.
   637. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:41 PM (#4305614)
The human polls would have them at worst 4th, behind Alabama, Oregon, and possibly Notre Dame.

I don't think that is a certainty. If K-State beats Texas, there could be a push to get them in over Florida. I think the press will start reminding everyone that Florida just had close calls against Mizzou and ULL. Maybe I'm kidding myself, since it would be similar to the Ok. St. vs. Bama conversation last year. This year's Florida team is a lot less impressive than last year's Bama team though.

That may not matter if Florida beats FSU, especially if they do it convincingly, but I'll be surprised if that actually happens.
   638. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:44 PM (#4305616)
You are dreaming. K-State is already ranked behind LSU in one of the polls, and the voters love Florida State. There is no way they pass Florida (if Florida beats Florida State) even in the voter polls. Combine that with Florida's lead in the computer polls (Sagarin has them at 2, with K-State at 7) and there is no chance. None.

Oregon v Florida on the other hand could be interesting if they both end up with one loss.
   639. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:48 PM (#4305617)
K-State is already ranked behind LSU in one of the polls

But that makes no sense!

Oregon v Florida on the other hand could be interesting if they both end up with one loss.

The voters have changed the order of things at the very end of the season to get the matchup they want. The did it with LSU in 07.

But I don't want to dwell on this, this season (and this sport in general) has made fools of people trying to predict what will happen even one week into the future.
   640. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 05:52 PM (#4305620)
Assuming Oregon loses, K-State and Florida and Notre Dame each finish with one loss, K-State will still be behind Florida in the BCS, no matter how you rank them. The only thing the voters can do to change that is put K-State first or Florida below a 2 loss team, and neither of those will happen now.
   641. Dan The Mediocre Posted: November 18, 2012 at 06:46 PM (#4305633)
Miss. St crept back into the rankings. They have beaten two teams with winning records, Middle Tennessee St. and Jackson St. I hope Ole Miss beats them next week.


If anyone ever needs evidence that the SEC is overrated, this is it.
   642. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 18, 2012 at 06:54 PM (#4305637)
I really hope it is not another all SEC national title game. Don't think the 2012 Florida is the same as 2011 Alabama.


Alabama vs. Notre Dame in the title game would be perfect. It will be the most watched and least watched BCS title game ever.


Tennessee just straight fired Derek Dooley today. Not even giving him a chance to finish the season against Kentucky. The SEC will have new coaches at Arkansas, Tennessee, and Kentucky for sure. Auburn is a maybe with the coaching change. Not sure if there will be any others, don't think Missouri will drop Pinkel.
   643. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 18, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4305649)
Also really want to see UCLA-Stanford play in back to back weeks.
   644. SoSH U at work Posted: November 18, 2012 at 07:18 PM (#4305651)
I see what you're saying, but you can't not score that late in the game when you have the opportunity.


I don't agree. When WVa. scored that TD with that much time left, it was damn near a given that Oklahoma would come back and score. I'm obviously not saying you take a knee, but you shouldn't be looking deep (particularly in this game). A few first downs before scoring and you win the ballgame. You score right away and you probaly lose it.

   645. hokieneer Posted: November 18, 2012 at 07:28 PM (#4305654)
I don't agree. When WVa. scored that TD with that much time left, it was damn near a given that Oklahoma would come back and score. I'm obviously not saying you take a knee, but you shouldn't be looking deep (particularly in this game). A few first downs before scoring and you win the ballgame. You score right away and you probaly lose it.


Hell once OU returned the kick to around midfield, my friends and I were calling for WVU to just let OU score ASAP to get the ball back. Actually we were calling for an onside before the kickoff. Clearly no one ever does those things, but you might need to do semi crazy #### when you have the worst defense in the history of football.

It was clear that game was going to be won by which team had the ball last.

Also, everyone and their mother knew the last pass from Jones was going to Stills. Just put 2 ####### people on him, man up at the line.

Another also, Tavon Austin probably had the best game ever for a mountaineer last night. School record 344 rushing yards, and shattering the B12 all-purpose yard record by 200 yards. WVU rushed for 458 yards on 47 carries and lost the damn game.
   646. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 18, 2012 at 07:33 PM (#4305655)
I'm obviously not saying you take a knee, but you shouldn't be looking deep (particularly in this game). A few first downs before scoring and you win the ballgame. You score right away and you probaly lose it.

After thinking about it, you're right. I'm just thinking that there is no guarantee that they score. In a game like that you need to have faith in your offense since there is no reason to have any in your defense.

Clearly no one ever does those things, but you might need to do semi crazy #### when you have the worst defense in the history of football.

So sad, any other WV defense from the past 6-7 years with this offense and this team would be BCS bowl bound.

Also, everyone and their mother knew the last pass from Jones was going to Stills. Just put 2 ####### people on him, man up at the line.

Deforrest is in over his head. Hopefully he learns over the offseason since he probably isn't going to get canned.
   647. I am going to be Frank Posted: November 18, 2012 at 08:36 PM (#4305677)
In a very plausible what-if, I think Michigan beats ND if Gardner played the whole game at QB.
   648. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 10:43 PM (#4305730)
The BCS is out. It looks to me like a 1 loss Florida would be close call against a 1 loss Oregon, especially one that does not have the benefit of getting an extra win from the Pac-12 championship game. On the other hand, in the right scenario, I can see a 1-loss K State getting the nod over a 1-loss Florida and 1-loss Notre Dame. I think it takes a dominant win by K-State, a close loss by Notre Dame (so they don't fall behind Florida), and a close win by Florida. K-State might be able to keep close enough in the computer polls so that Florida stays behind them in the overall rankings. I don't think this scenario is particularly likely, but I guess it is possible, now that I see how close the computer polls have K-State and Florida.
   649. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 18, 2012 at 10:55 PM (#4305735)
Barkley is out with a sprained ac joint. Notre Dame will win at usc saturday i am will to put money on it.
   650. AuntBea Posted: November 18, 2012 at 11:03 PM (#4305736)
Barkley is out


Notre Dame winning would sure take the fun out of the BCS this year.
   651. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 18, 2012 at 11:18 PM (#4305740)
Also really want to see UCLA-Stanford play in back to back weeks.


I don't think this has happened before. consecutive games, yes, but not two weeks in a row.
   652. zenbitz Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:03 AM (#4305750)
Can't decide if an all SEC championship game is worse than a Nortre dame one.

UCLA only has to play Stanford twice if they lose the first one (or if Oregon state beats Oregon).
I would love to see:
Oregon-Alabama
Stanford-Georgia
UCLA- Florida
And
oregon State - TAMU
   653. Tulo's Fishy Mullet (mrams) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:42 AM (#4305760)
While I want to see Nebraska in the Rose Bowl, I don't really want to see UCLA v Nebraska....again, and then again next September. They just did this #### with Washington, playing 3 times in 12 months.
   654. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:14 AM (#4305773)
At this point can anyone really dispute ND being #1?
   655. Every Inge Counts Posted: November 19, 2012 at 10:18 AM (#4305803)
At this point can anyone really dispute ND being #1?



In terms of what? Are they currently the only team not on probation that is undefeated, yes, and that makes them #1. Are they the best team in college football? I am not so sure about that.
   656. SoSH U at work Posted: November 19, 2012 at 10:55 AM (#4305818)
Are they currently the only team not on probation that is undefeated, yes, and that makes them #1.


Probation isn't the only thing separating Ohio State and Notre Dame. Some skepticism about the Irish is undoubtedly warranted, but the Buckeyes are the most uninspiring 10-0 team from a BCS conference I've ever seen.

   657. My name is Votto, and I love to get blotto Posted: November 19, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4305821)
Barkley is out with a sprained ac joint.


a sprained what? That sounds like a car part.
   658. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: November 19, 2012 at 11:07 AM (#4305822)
Probation isn't the only thing separating Ohio State and Notre Dame. Some skepticism about the Irish is undoubtedly warranted, but the Buckeyes are the most uninspiring 10-0 team from a BCS conference I've ever seen.


This. Michigan is a mere +4.5 @OSU, and Michigan isn't very good, though a lot better with Gardner at QB (and Robinson at RB). That line says much about the quality of OSU this season.
   659. zonk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 11:14 AM (#4305830)
Probation isn't the only thing separating Ohio State and Notre Dame. Some skepticism about the Irish is undoubtedly warranted, but the Buckeyes are the most uninspiring 10-0 team from a BCS conference I've ever seen.



This. Michigan is a mere +4.5 @OSU, and Michigan isn't very good, though a lot better with Gardner at QB (and Robinson at RB). That line says much about the quality of OSU this season.


I think it will be a perfectly fitting capstone to a frustrating B1G10 season to see the Buckeyes finish as the only undefeated div I team this year... Of course, they'd have two if the @!$!@#!@#!! Wildcats - at least, their defense - could remember that there FOUR quarters, not three, to a game.
   660. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:29 PM (#4305883)
Maryland votes to join the Big Ten. Rutgers is expected to follow tomorrow.

No offense to Maryland and Rutgers alum, but I feel like the B1G is diluting its brand with these additions.
   661. zonk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:33 PM (#4305886)
Maryland votes to join the Big Ten. Rutgers is expected to follow tomorrow.

No offense to Maryland and Rutgers alum, but I feel like the B1G is diluting its brand with these additions.


They want to get a foothold into the east coast media (read: NYC) media markets... what other options are there?

They'd have invited the Bronx Upstairs College of Cosmology if it would allow the cash cow of the Network to find its way onto those cable systems.
   662. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4305888)
Adding Maryland and Rutgers is a pure money grab. The Pac 12 did the same thing when they added Utah and Colorado.
   663. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:35 PM (#4305891)
Connecticut likely to replace Maryland (IMO) represents a downgrade for the ACC as well
   664. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:37 PM (#4305892)

They want to get a foothold into the east coast media (read: NYC) media markets... what other options are there?


Isn't Syracuse a bigger deal in NYC than Rutgers? Plus the sports media world is biased towards their alma mater, so you'd get disproportionate attention. I don't get the sense that anyone in NYC cares about Rutgers. And I lived in DC and I don't recall Maryland being a very big deal on the sports scene.

I predict Clemson and Florida State bolt for the Big 12 soon. The new Big 12 commish seems intent on aggressively poaching to avoid the Big 12 splitting apart, and FSU and Clemson are supposedly very dissatisfied with the basketball-centric nature of the ACC.
   665. JJ1986 Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:41 PM (#4305895)
I don't recall Maryland being a very big deal on the sports scene.


They are mostly known for wearing the most ridiculous helmets in all of sports.
   666. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:50 PM (#4305902)
Md has had success in basketball, fringe sports, and is backed by Under Armor (Nike/Oregon lite arrangement).
Solid academics too.

Clemson / fsu to b12 strikes me as unlikely.
   667. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:51 PM (#4305903)
It's about TV markets. MD gets them DC/NoVA. Rutgers gets them Jersey/NYC. The ACC drops a third of their Mid-Atlantic presence (MD out, VA and VT still in) and adds a second NEC presence (CT joins BC.)
   668. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:53 PM (#4305906)
I dont see FSU of Clemson leaving the ACC that 50 million dollar exit fee is a pretty big obstacle.
   669. Forsch 10 From Navarone (Dayn) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4305908)
So I'm the only one who likes Maryland's uniforms?
   670. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:56 PM (#4305909)

I dont see FSU of Clemson leaving the ACC that 50 million dollar exit fee is a pretty big obstacle.


Why is not an obstacle for Maryland?
   671. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 12:59 PM (#4305912)
the 20 mil a year you get from the big 10 network helps off set that pretty easily.
   672. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:03 PM (#4305916)
Reportedly Maryland thinks they can negotiate the price down - the goal being 20m
   673. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4305917)
Maryland and Rutgers is a "Risk" like geographic media grab, and somewhat giving up football and focusing on research dollars.

BTN currently pays ~$7M per school. Overall B10 payouts ~$25M.

Pretty much every school that has moved has paid roughly 50% of the exit fee, so Maryland is probably looking at ~$25M, possibly even lower since it was just raised.

As a B10 fan, this sucks. But I see why the institutions are doing it.
   674. DA Baracus Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:04 PM (#4305918)
Why is not an obstacle for Maryland?


A Kevin Plank donation.
   675. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4305920)

the 20 mil a year you get from the big 10 network helps off set that pretty easily.


That's the same amount each Big 12 member gets in its TV deal.
   676. Der-K and the statistical werewolves. Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:08 PM (#4305921)
The Big Ten deal is about to get richer, correct?
   677. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:09 PM (#4305923)
Maryland alum and Under Armour CEO Kevin Plank announced a sale of $65M in stock six days ago.

http://www.bizjournals.com/baltimore/news/2012/11/13/under-armour-ceo-kevin-plank-selling.html
   678. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:11 PM (#4305925)
The Big Ten deal is about to get richer, correct?


Sure, but so would a Big 12 deal if they could add Clemson and FSU (although not by as much)

It just doesn't seem like exit fees have been much of an impediment. I bet the ACC gets raided, not just by the Big 12, but possibly the SEC as well.
   679. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:13 PM (#4305927)
For history's sake, it should be noted that MD was a founding member of the ACC.
   680. zonk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4305928)
Isn't Syracuse a bigger deal in NYC than Rutgers? Plus the sports media world is biased towards their alma mater, so you'd get disproportionate attention. I don't get the sense that anyone in NYC cares about Rutgers. And I lived in DC and I don't recall Maryland being a very big deal on the sports scene.

I predict Clemson and Florida State bolt for the Big 12 soon. The new Big 12 commish seems intent on aggressively poaching to avoid the Big 12 splitting apart, and FSU and Clemson are supposedly very dissatisfied with the basketball-centric nature of the ACC.


Oh - they don't care if anyone actually watches Rutgers in NYC... they just want to coax all the metroplex cable companies into paying more for it.

BTW - the payout last year for all teams in the conference was more like 25 million... there's some talk that this year might end up approaching 30 million when it's all said and done.

That's the real beauty of owning the Network, as opposed to a sourced deal with FSN/ESPN/whatever... It's not like there's a set payout -- the league owns, operates, and distributes income from the network, so they keep it all.

Whatever struggles the conference has had - I wouldn't bet against Jim Delaney's ability to make cash hand over fist.
   681. zonk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:15 PM (#4305929)
The Big Ten deal is about to get richer, correct?


That's the thing, though -- it's not a "deal"...

They own the Network. It's not a contract - every time the Network exceeds revenue projections, and it has virtually since year one - the entire conference shares in the bounty.

It's a cash cow that just keeps getting fatter.
   682. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:23 PM (#4305935)
I predict Clemson and Florida State bolt for the Big 12 soon. The new Big 12 commish seems intent on aggressively poaching to avoid the Big 12 splitting apart, and FSU and Clemson are supposedly very dissatisfied with the basketball-centric nature of the ACC.


The age of the 4 super conferences is rapidly approaching. The Big 10, SEC, and Pac 12 have locked up 3 of the 4 available slots. Now the Big 12 and ACC are in a precarious position. One of them is going to be deprecated and it probably isn't going to be the one who strikes first.
   683. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:25 PM (#4305936)

Oh - they don't care if anyone actually watches Rutgers in NYC... they just want to coax all the metroplex cable companies into paying more for it.


Yea, but doesn't their ability to convince cable companies to carry the Big Ten network depend in large part on the viewership of Rutgers football? If I was a major cable carrier on the East Coast and the Big Ten came to me and said "carry us and give us money because we have Rutgers football", I'd tell them to go pound sand.
   684. Jeff Frances the Mute Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4305938)
That's the thing, though -- it's not a "deal"...


Adding conference members also leads to a renegotiation of the Fox/ESPN contract. That deal still provides the majority of the money, but it is fast approaching parity with the B1G revenue.
   685. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:28 PM (#4305939)
FOX is close to buying YES and the theory is they will force BTN carriage by pairing them. FOX owns 51% of the BTN, conference owns 49%.

http://mediadecoder.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/14/news-corporation-said-to-be-close-to-acquiring-stake-in-yes-network/

   686. zonk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:29 PM (#4305941)
Yea, but doesn't their ability to convince cable companies to carry the Big Ten network depend in large part on the viewership of Rutgers football? If I was a major cable carrier on the East Coast and the Big Ten came to me and said "carry us and give us money because we have Rutgers football", I'd tell them to go pound sand.


Thus far, whenever the network has ended up in disputes with carriers -- it's always been the carrier that's largely blinked... They won the showdown with DISH, they won a showdown with Comcast, etc... I'm not well-versed in the details of the deals the conference/Network have with other broadcast and cable networks (i.e., games on FSN/ESPN/whatever are licensed by the network) - but if I'm fairly sure that if you balk at carrying the Network, you also get blackouts to other games. At least, my recollection was that when DISH was balking at the pricetag, it wasn't just the game on the Network people were missing -- they were also getting blackouts of conference members on other networks.

   687. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:32 PM (#4305944)
I was right Barkley has a sprained ac joint in his shoulder.
   688. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4305945)
The fight for carriage in NJ and NYC isn't just a matter of Rutgers alums, but Rutgers/PSU/Michigan/OSU alums.

   689. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:33 PM (#4305948)
Yea, but doesn't their ability to convince cable companies to carry the Big Ten network depend in large part on the viewership of Rutgers football? If I was a major cable carrier on the East Coast and the Big Ten came to me and said "carry us and give us money because we have Rutgers football", I'd tell them to go pound sand.

I would guess Rutgers viewership will skyrocket during Big Ten conference games, even if that will mostly be alums from other schools.

Edit: Coke to BLB
   690. cmd600 Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:39 PM (#4305952)
Yea, but doesn't their ability to convince cable companies to carry the Big Ten network depend in large part on the viewership of Rutgers football? If I was a major cable carrier on the East Coast and the Big Ten came to me and said "carry us and give us money because we have Rutgers football", I'd tell them to go pound sand.


Have you flipped through the channels on a Saturday afternoon recently? You can find games from just about anywhere in the country. Out on the West Coast a couple weeks ago, I was able to get James Madison @ Maine on a standard cable package. TV is dying to show sports (and especially football) at every chance they get.
   691. odds are meatwad is drunk Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:45 PM (#4305959)
I think baseketball is the bigger factor in this happening. this gets big 10 basketball into east coast markets. you have to do this since the big east is falling apart you need to get into that market no matter what right now
   692. Cowboy Popup Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:50 PM (#4305964)
So who does the Big East go after to replace Rutgers, and presumably UConn? Their focus will be media markets, not quality programs, but honestly, I can't think of any remaining mid major schools that offer even a good media market. Fresno St.? I'm not even sure they can poach mid-majors any more.
   693. RoyalsRetro (AG#1F) Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:56 PM (#4305969)

So who does the Big East go after to replace Rutgers, and presumably UConn? Their focus will be media markets, not quality programs, but honestly, I can't think of any remaining mid major schools that offer even a good media market. Fresno St.? I'm not even sure they can poach mid-majors any more.


Quantity-wise, they don't need anyone as replacements, do they? They're already adding six football members next year. They'll have 15 basketball members. What they need is better quality, and there isn't any better quality available.
   694. Pops Freshenmeyer Posted: November 19, 2012 at 01:58 PM (#4305972)
I would assume Louisville and BYU to the Big 12 next?
   695. smileyy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:00 PM (#4305975)
[692] The disruptions to the Big East and ACC have to drive a football/basketball conference split, right? Right? I can hope?

I just can't imagine the Carolina teams accepting a disintegrating ACC. But maybe college basketball isn't as important as I think it is.
   696. JJ1986 Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4305984)
I just can't imagine the Carolina teams accepting a disintegrating ACC. But maybe college basketball isn't as important as I think it is.


UConn for Maryland is a positive swap in basketball.
   697. Barry`s_Lazy_Boy Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:07 PM (#4305987)
I would agree that this may finally force a Big East split from the current hybrid. With Rutgers and probably UConn gone, then it officially becomes CUSA 2.0.
   698. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4305990)
I doubt that's the case for ACC hoop fans.
   699. madvillain Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:33 PM (#4306009)
The fight for carriage in NJ and NYC isn't just a matter of Rutgers alums, but Rutgers/PSU/Michigan/OSU alums.


Ding ding ding. You could argue that Michigan is the #1 college football brand in NYC and judging from the number of shirts and hats on display on any walk through the city, you might have an argument.

NYC sends a lot of kids to Michigan and Michigan sends a lot of kids to NYC. This is a wet dream for pizza boy David Brandon.
   700. Weekly Journalist_ Posted: November 19, 2012 at 02:34 PM (#4306010)
WOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!
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