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Tuesday, October 02, 2012

OTP: October 2012-THE RACE: As Candidates Prep, Attention in DC split between politics and baseball

While President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney bone up in Nevada and Colorado for Wednesday’s opening debate, back in the nation’s capital attention is split between the hard-fought presidential race and baseball playoffs.

The Nationals won the first division baseball championship for a Washington team since 1933 by clinching the National League East race Monday night.

Washington, D.C., has the only ballpark where so many Cabinet members, politicians and other luminaries routinely gather and where fans now are openly rooting for a particular president — one who served more than a century ago, Theodore Roosevelt.

“Let Teddy Win” banners and buttons are everywhere. Fans like 2008 GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona say it’s time for Roosevelt’s 500-plus losing streak to end.

[...]

“Teddy, you are the victim of a vast left-wing conspiracy by the commie pinko libs in this town,” McCain said in a video played in the stadium Monday night. “But you can overcome that.”

The October 2012 “OT: Politics” thread starts ... now.

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 02, 2012 at 02:14 PM | 6119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, politics

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   1901. DA Baracus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:04 AM (#4265951)
I just don't understand why Romney gets a free pass for changing his positions on topics depending on which way the winds blow, yet I remember Kerry getting constantly nailed in the press for the same thing to the effect that Al Michaels mentioned it during a MNF broadcast years ago?


Liberal media. Duh.
   1902. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4265952)
Anyone who doesn't acknowledge all of these factors isn't being fully descriptive of the overall situation, not that you're not aware of all that.


Weirdly I know a fair amount about rent control. Talked about a fair amount in various economics courses.

Andy - Can you answer my "slums in Manhattan" question? I assumed there were none, but the one (NY I think) poster referenced slums and Manhattan in the same post earlier. Sure I could try to look it up, but terms like slum are goofy and subjective and I trust your take on it.
   1903. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:05 AM (#4265953)
I just don't understand why Romney gets a free pass for changing his positions on topics depending on which way the winds blow, yet I remember Kerry getting constantly nailed in the press for the same thing to the effect that Al Michaels mentioned it during a MNF broadcast years ago?


Because the Obama campaign prefers to focus on the "Romney is a right wing deathbeast who wants to take away your Social Security/Medicare" narrative, believing that will help them more than the "Romney is a flip flopper" narrative.

That said, plenty of ink has been spilled about Romney's flip floppery.
   1904. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4265957)
It's impossible to respond to, however, since it's based on a premise that I don't agree with, which is that the overriding interest that has to be satisfied at all costs is that of the property owner.


From an economics stand the overriding interest is Economic Efficiency - avoiding the dead weight loss (inefficiency) caused long term by rent controls. Of course I am not convinced the ultimate goal of society is to have as efficient an economy as possible. I acknowledge everything else held equal efficiency is great to have though.

EDIT: I fully endorse 1905 (and suspect he reads some of the same blogs I do - if I had a better memory I would know for sure).
   1905. tshipman Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:08 AM (#4265960)
It's impossible to respond to, however, since it's based on a premise that I don't agree with, which is that the overriding interest that has to be satisfied at all costs is that of the property owner.


No, that's not true. The overriding interest is that of society. The reason why I would want only very limited rent control is that rents get to high. SF right now actually has the highest rent in the country due to the app developing boom (higher than Manhattan--$3,500 on average for a single family home). I think that there should be fewer restrictions on building before you really mess with Rent Control too much, but eventually you have to unwind it. The big problem is the building restrictions though. Both artificially reduce the supply of housing, but one has a bigger impact.

Rent control helps you keep your place, but it means you're a prisoner. Lower rents in general by increased supply is more beneficial to society and the individual.
   1906. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:09 AM (#4265963)
Because the Obama campaign prefers to focus on the "Romney is a right wing deathbeast who wants to take away your Social Security/Medicare" narrative, believing that will help them more than the "Romney is a flip flopper" narrative.


Better put than my post, though I did get there first :)
   1907. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4265966)
I just don't understand why Romney gets a free pass for changing his positions on topics depending on which way the winds blow


Some of it is the decision by the Obama campaign not to emphasize it. Attacking Romney on flip-flops runs the risk of allowing him to sound more moderate (not really doing all those bad things we keep hearing about - he is just a policy wonk and was trying to placate the GOP base).

Part of the problem is that the limited debate format doesn't allow enough time to delineate the chronology of all those flip-flops and Etch-a-Sketches. It's easy to post a chart comparing Massachusetts Mitt to Primary Mitt to Newly Minted Moderate Mitt and see the ongoing pandering and position shifting. It's also easy to do this is a TV ad or a web video. But when you're up there in real time and have only a minute or two to speak, you have to be able to demonstrate those flip-flops in a sound bite way that will be remembered by non-policy wonks at the office or workplace the next morning. That's not exactly the easiest thing in the world.
   1908. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:12 AM (#4265967)
It has nothing to do with property owner's interest trumps all others though their interests as the land onwer should trump the interests of a renter's.

With rent control the interests of a few renters ends up trumping all other interests and it does so for very little gain to the community and city. With rent control renting becomes a right and it never should be a right. If you sign a lease and one side of the agreement is allowed to leave at the end of the agreement so should the other side and yet with rent control that does not happen. If a renter wants to stay they get to stay until they either die or can longer make the payments and in both cases it still isn't so easy to get them out or get rid of the rent control. Furthermore rent control gives the renter a false value simply because they are a renter. An owner of a piece of land shouldn't have to pay a renter any sum of money to vacate the property.*

*If you sign a 1 year lease and they want you out before that contract is up I have no issue with money changing hands but I do have an issue with a renter allowed to renew their lease in perpetuity.

A freer market leads to development and revitalizing of dying neighborhoods. Rent control stifles that.
   1909. Ricky Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:18 AM (#4265978)
Annual stabilization increases are typically 3-5% per year at most, citywide, and usually fat smaller than the rise in free market pricing. In Manhattan the free market rent is far more than the stabilized rent, and in the other boroughs the gap can be much smaller. (RS sometimes shows up in new buildings in exchange for certain tax breaks etc.) Where's your building?


Agreed with all of this. I think the 20-year CAGR is something like 3%. My ancillary point was only that a 20% vacancy increase can give landlords the opportunity to catch-up to some extent with respect to apartments with significant turnover. My building is in Gramcery/Flatiron. The apartments with longer-tenured tenants are well below market value as would be expected. However, there are several apartments that have turned over almost annually for a number of years (Baruch students, young professionals changing jobs, etc.) Some of these have moved much closer to market value (and I know a couple that probably pay full market). Of course, even then a tenant would still receive the benefit of cappped future increases.
   1910. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:21 AM (#4265980)
Andy - Can you answer my "slums in Manhattan" question? I assumed there were none, but the one (NY I think) poster referenced slums and Manhattan in the same post earlier. Sure I could try to look it up, but terms like slum are goofy and subjective and I trust your take on it.

That's way beyond the realm of my first hand information, and given the extreme gentrification on the upper East Side (above 96th) and all points North, I'd say you'd almost have to do a full month's walking tour, complete with camera and tape recorder, both daytime and nighttime, to get even the beginnings of a real answer.
   1911. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:22 AM (#4265981)
Andy - Can you answer my "slums in Manhattan" question? I assumed there were none, but the one (NY I think) poster referenced slums and Manhattan in the same post earlier. Sure I could try to look it up, but terms like slum are goofy and subjective and I trust your take on it.


I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "slums," but there are some very depressed neighborhoods in Manhattan, including on the lower east side and up above 96th street, into the Harlem area. Not every neighborhood looks like Tudor City.

Although improvements are being made everywhere constantly, including in Harlem.
   1912. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:23 AM (#4265986)
Thanks Ray and Andy.
   1913. bunyon Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:25 AM (#4265988)
I remember my first time extensively walking through Manhattan. I assumed it was all slums because there were so many window unit air conditioners. Which, where I come from, is a sign of poverty.
   1914. CrosbyBird Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:29 AM (#4265990)
Marginal tax rates crush marginal efforts to earn marginal income. I think that paying over 40% of my gross comp and nearly 50% of marginal dollars is oppressive. You disagree. What's your tax rate?

The entire problem with this sort of argument is that it is framed with a particular assumption: that 100% of your salary is supposed to be fair payment for your services rendered and then the government steps in and takes X% away. The reality is that your salary is set (or, if you are self-employed, the price you can charge for your services is set) with the understanding that a healthy portion will be dedicated to sustaining the conditions that allow you to earn that salary.

People who work in NYC make more money, generally speaking, than people who perform the same job in Broomfield, Colorado, because there is an understanding that living in/near and working in NYC is significantly more expensive. A city as large and densely populated as NYC demands a tremendous amount of resources in order to function, but those resources drive what makes the city such a profitable place to work. When I transferred from Massachusetts to NYC, I got about a 10% cost-of-living adjustment.

If you could somehow earn your same income in New Hampshire, rather than NYC, you would save much more money than 4% per thousand dollars over $250K. Of course, it would be very difficult to maintain your income in New Hampshire, and you wouldn't have access to all of the advantages that come with living here.
   1915. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:30 AM (#4265991)
I'm not sure exactly what you mean by "slums," but there are some very depressed neighborhoods in Manhattan, including on the lower east side

To what extent has the lower east side been gentrified since the early 90's? I know that most all of the old Bowery flop houses and Thunderbird bars are long gone, but how far does it extend beyond that?

   1916. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4265996)
To what extent has the lower east side been gentrified since the early 90's? I know that most all of the old Bowery flop houses and Thunderbird bars are long gone, but how far does it extend beyond that?


Hang on, I have to look up the word 'gentrified'...

...Oh, renovated.

Well, there's been a lot of gentrification going on in the LES over the past couple of decades, obviously. But you still have a lot of low income areas and apartment buildings there, and projects, etc. It basically goes in sections, but each street is different. Tons of dive bars and the like, with mostly young white trash hanging out in them. Many of the areas there are still very depressed.
   1917. CrosbyBird Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:38 AM (#4265999)
So how does one get one? When there's a vacancy, is there a lottery, or is it first come first served?

Rent-controlled apartments are very tough to get, but rent-stabilized apartments are out there if you look for them. I found a rent-stabilized apartment in Bayside on Craigslist a few years ago.

My current apartment is a subsidized co-op and maintenance scales with income. I had to wait 18 years on a list to get in.
   1918. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4266001)
How else is one supposed to react when his opponent is lying shamelessly?


You'll note that the complaints about tone and rudeness avoid the question of truth and falsity altogether.
   1919. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4266002)

Tension has steadily risen for months along Turkey's long shared border with Syria, spiking with the Syrian shoot-down of a Turkish jet fighter this summer and again last week as Turkey responded to Syrian artillery shells landing on its side of the border. Turkey says it doesn't want war, but it is far from clear where the ###-for-tat with Syria will stop.

The incident is the latest development in what has become a proxy war between President Bashar al-Assad's regime and allies Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah, and its opponents, who are backed by Turkey, the US, the European Union, and rich Persian Gulf states.

Turkey hosts the Syrian opposition and has facilitated supplies to the rebel Free Syrian Army, which is fighting to topple Mr. Assad in a 20-month uprising that has turned into a global tug-of-war.

But it was Turkey's decision to force a Syrian passenger plane to land in Turkey overnight on Oct. 10 that has analysts using the word "escalation." Turkey confiscated what it claims was illegal military equipment en route from Moscow, though it has yet to make its findings public. Syria accused Turkey of "air piracy," while Russia demanded an explanation.

Chief of Staff Gen. Necdet Ozel visited the border the day of the plane grounding and said Turkey would respond "with greater force" if Syrian shells continued to land in Turkey. Reuters reported today that two jet fighters had been scrambled after a Syrian helicopter fired on a Syrian border town. The Turkish parliament last week authorized troop deployments beyond Turkey's borders


Turkey/Syria continues to escalate.
   1920. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:40 AM (#4266003)
It is not PC of me but I have always loved the term "White Trash" (though at times I am sure - OK I am 100% positive - I was referred to as such).
   1921. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:44 AM (#4266006)
It is not PC of me but I have always loved the term "White Trash"

Don't sell yourself short -- it's entirely PC of you.
   1922. CrosbyBird Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4266009)
Can you answer my "slums in Manhattan" question? I assumed there were none, but the one (NY I think) poster referenced slums and Manhattan in the same post earlier. Sure I could try to look it up, but terms like slum are goofy and subjective and I trust your take on it.

I live in Manhattan, and I can't think of any place I'd call a slum in the borough. There's public housing ("the projects"), but even those places are reasonably well-maintained and generally safe to walk around in.
   1923. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4266010)
Well, there's been a lot of gentrification going on in the LES over the past couple of decades, obviously. But you still have a lot of low income areas and apartment buildings there. It basically goes in sections, but each street is different. Tons of dive bars, etc. With mostly young white trash hanging out in them. Many of the areas there are still very depressed.


Yeah, about 5 years ago or so I was dating somebody who lived in the LES and it was a dicey neighborhood. Not sure I'd go so far as to call it a slum, but it was way shadier than most of Manhattan. There were people buying/selling drugs almost every block, and fights/loud altercations were common at night.

Can't say I've spent much time there since though.
   1924. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4266015)
Don't sell yourself short -- it's entirely PC of you.


I laughed.
   1925. formerly dp Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:50 AM (#4266016)
Well, there's been a lot of gentrification going on in the LES over the past couple of decades, obviously. But you still have a lot of low income areas and apartment buildings there, and projects, etc. It basically goes in sections, but each street is different. Tons of dive bars and the like, with mostly young white trash hanging out in them. Many of the areas there are still very depressed.


The LES bars are mostly populated by wealthy students and bridge and tunnel folks at this point, not people who live in the neighborhood. There are some dive bars in the East Village still (Double Down runs the nastiest porn you'll ever see, on a constant loop, and that does a good job keeping the undesirables out), but once you cross Houston to the LES, for the most part, it's pretty posh. There are some of faux-divey bars in the LES, but that's just to market edgy to the straight crowd.

Did anyone watch the Limelight documentary?
   1926. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4266017)
Yeah, about 5 years ago or so I was dating somebody who lived in the LES and it was a dicey neighborhood. Not sure I'd go so far as to call it a slum, but it was way shadier than most of Manhattan. There were people buying/selling drugs almost every block, and fights/loud altercations were common at night.


Yeah, I don't know what qualifies as a "slum," which is why I've tried to stay away from that term and just describe the areas as I see them.

I feel safe in Harlem at night, when I've gone there. And I've been there not infrequently. I don't feel quite as safe on the LES.
   1927. Lassus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:51 AM (#4266018)
Alphabet City was quite run-down (and somewhat dangerous) as recently as 10 years ago. It is way better now, not as scary but I would call there and adjacent areas as close to slums as Manhattan has had since the late 90s. (I could also be forgetting somewhere.)
   1928. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4266021)
Yes, I agree with Lassus's 1927. It's improving. I don't think it's enough yet though.
   1929. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:53 AM (#4266022)
So Saudi Arabia wants to censor the internet for everyone.

FU Saudi Arabia, seriously STFU. You get to censor your own populace but not everyone else's.
   1930. The Chronicles of Reddick Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:54 AM (#4266023)
GOP talking point echoed during football game.

I thought he mentioned Kerry by name but I was wrong
   1931. UCCF Posted: October 12, 2012 at 11:56 AM (#4266028)
It is not PC of me but I have always loved the term "White Trash"

My American history teacher in high school told us, one day in class, that he considered the class of "white trash" white people to be the equivalent of the class of "n-word" black people. (Of course, he didn't say "n-word", he said the actual word.)

He said there are black people and white people, and then there are n-words and white trash.

In school, during class. I don't remember it being part of any lecture or topic, just something that he brought up one day.
   1932. Lassus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:05 PM (#4266043)
Also, Good Face oversells. There was no part of the LES that had open-air dealers and fights on every corner in 2007. Rather touristy of him to describe it as such.
   1933. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:13 PM (#4266049)
Well, there's been a lot of gentrification going on in the LES over the past couple of decades, obviously. But you still have a lot of low income areas and apartment buildings there, and projects, etc. It basically goes in sections, but each street is different. Tons of dive bars and the like, with mostly young white trash hanging out in them. Many of the areas there are still very depressed.

Based on this and the replies of others, it only reinforces my thought that the only way to answer the original question about Manhattan slums would be to take an extensive walking tour of great swaths of the island above 96th and on the lower east side.

--------------------------------------------------

It is not PC of me but I have always loved the term "White Trash"


My American history teacher in high school told us, one day in class, that he considered the class of "white trash" white people to be the equivalent of the class of "n-word" black people. (Of course, he didn't say "n-word", he said the actual word.)

He said there are black people and white people, and then there are n-words and white trash.

In school, during class. I don't remember it being part of any lecture or topic, just something that he brought up one day.


BITD Willard Mullin was best known for his Brooklyn Bum caricature, but until the Orioles came along he had an almost equally famous representation of the St. Louis Browns as a moonshining Ozarks hillbilly with a two foot long beard, a whiskey jug in his hand, and a label of "Po' white trash". If anyone ever complained, it never came to my attention.

I should also note that while Mullin never engaged in "darky" stereotype cartoon figures, more than a few other Sporting News cartoonists often did, complete with dialect. It was an era where pretty much every comic stereotype was fully expressed with little hesitancy or reservation.
   1934. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:19 PM (#4266056)
Also, Good Face oversells. There was no part of the LES that had open-air dealers and fights on every corner in 2007. Rather touristy of him to describe it as such.


There is something weird going on on 40th street between Broadway and 8th. Every time I walk there, day or night, I see people just hanging out either holding or talking on their cell phones - clearly waiting for someone or some thing. I'm not sure what it's all about, but drug dealing was one thing that ran through my mind. Perhaps you and Good Face can investigate, Crockett and Tubbs style. Whoever decides to be Crockett will have to get a light blue suit jacket and white pants.
   1935. Lassus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:31 PM (#4266069)
That's the closest point of the garment district to the Lincoln Tunnel. Lots of shipments all the time of all kinds of crap, legal or otherwise.
   1936. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:34 PM (#4266077)
People who live there now can speak much better than I can, but I've lived in the NY metro area (NJ, Queens, Nassau) on and off for much of my adult life (often commuting back to Texas), and go back at least twice a year to stay in Manhattan, and I'm also pretty fanatical about doing walking tours. One walk I've done consistently for the past 10 years or so is all the way down Broadway, from 215th to the Battery. It is safe and pleasant for the entire 13.7 miles or whatever it may be. Washington Heights is distinctly not a rich neighborhood, and is overwhelmingly working-class, Latino (specifically Dominican): lots of people on the streets, lots of small businesses, not slumlike in my estimation (I used to work in the Bronx in the 1980s, and the South Bronx of those days remains my benchmark). But if one is leery of "ethnic" surroundings, one would probably feel a wee bit uneasy in Washington Heights. Broadway between about 155th and 135th is lower-income and working class, black and Hispanic: not a slum at all, but you might think you were in an outer borough; it's not gentrified. Central Harlem is very much gentrified, and real-estate prices were through the roof there before '08, not cheap even now. East Harlem would be the place to walk further in search of "slums"; it was not a very nice neighborhood five years ago, and for that very reason I haven't walked there much since.

The LES is harder to place. There is a lot of hipsterish life there, and I have the sense that it became so trendy that the epicentre of coolness spilled across the bridge into Williamsburg and remains there. It's a mix of old and new. There are still anchors of the old Jewish community there (Streit's matzoh factory is still on Rivington Street), but fewer and fewer, and not many Jews live there. Chinatown is larger than I remember it from 25/30 years ago, and that development has made the LES safer and more affluent. The Bowery, which was appalling 30 years ago, is remarkable: there's been a Whole Foods at Houston and the Bowery for a while now. What on Earth? I have walked all over that part of the city, and out to Corlears Hook (where there are so many projects) in recent years, and never felt unsafe, though again where there's a lot of public housing it's never very wealthy.
   1937. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:36 PM (#4266079)
Oh, and there's one part of Broadway I never really like: in the lower 30s and upper 20s. It's the world capital of cheap wholesale junk, much of it carted away daily for sale from tables here and there across the city. Well-populated and unthreatening, but just run-down and tawdry. (It rivals Canal Street as the great market of cutrate crap.)
   1938. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:55 PM (#4266110)
Specific question, Bob (or anyone): What about my old block of Cathedral Parkway (AKA W 110th Street), across from Morningside Park and between Manhattan and Columbus Avenues? When I lived there an infinite number of years ago, it was still white / European ethnic working class, and from 109th on down it was all Puerto Rican. Shortly after that, it became a serious slum block, and by the time I last walked by it, my old building (352 W 110th) was gutted and had a concrete barrier in front of it.

I know that since then it's been replaced by a high priced high rise, but what I'd be curious about is the spinoff effect on Morningside Park. That was considered safe for kids BITD but by the 60's it was considered a no man's land. Any idea of whether that's still true today? (I doubt it, but then that's just conjecture on my part.)
   1939. bobm Posted: October 12, 2012 at 12:58 PM (#4266116)
There is something weird going on on 40th street between Broadway and 8th. 

Besides the New York Times? :-)

[1937]

Canal Street is more focused on retail junk than Broadway in the 20s and 30s.
   1940. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:07 PM (#4266127)
re: slums in Manhattan.

It's vastly better than it was even 5 years ago. I grew up and still live in Carnegie Hill, and the transformation north of 96th street, particularly on Lex, is astonishing. When I was in middle school, my school used to bus us from the school to Randall's Island in the warm seasons to have PE outdoors. We used to play "Find the White Guy" once the bus passed 96th Street going up 3rd. You won if you saw a white guy on the street. No one won.

That's gone now, obviously, but its still not a place you can reasonably live. I go to east harlem all the time for food now, since there's a mess of great restaurants that have opened up there to take advantage of the cheap rent, but I wouldn't LIVE there. Some guys I know from college had the great idea (at the time, I really did think it was a great idea) of splitting rent for a gorgeous, newly renovated brownstone on near the 125th street station, off Lex. Within a year all 4 of them had been mugged, some more than once. Its (paradoxically?) much safer if you're not white, since the crime is petty muggings and such and being white makes you a target. Similarly, when i was at Columbia, the folks stuck living in the student slums up by 125th, on Tiemann or near the Crips-controlled projects on Amsterdam, nothing BAD happened, but muggings, broken into cars, etc was routine (I used to park there ~5 nights a month when I was going out drinking after class, and in 3 years my car was trashed twice).

If paying enough rent to live in a neighborhood where I don't need to worry about being mugged when I come home at 2AM is a luxury, then I dont want to know what a necessity is.


   1941. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:10 PM (#4266131)
Specific question, Bob (or anyone): What about my old block of Cathedral Parkway (AKA W 110th Street), across from Morningside Park and between Manhattan and Columbus Avenues? When I lived there an infinite number of years ago, it was still white / European ethnic working class, and from 109th on down it was all Puerto Rican. Shortly after that, it became a serious slum block, and by the time I last walked by it, my old building (352 W 110th) was gutted and had a concrete barrier in front of it.


Morningside Park is still legitimately dangerous if you're a woman, and particularly so at night. It is generally safe in the day for men. The block you're referring to is fine, though I tell my fiance to walk on the south side of the street if its dark out.
   1942. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4266133)
If paying enough rent to live in a neighborhood where I don't need to worry about being mugged when I come home at 2AM is a luxury, then I dont want to know what a necessity is.
Just taking your claim at face value - then move somewhere further away, that's safe. It'll be a hell of a lot cheaper than the most desirable Manhattan locations. High-quality housing in a wildly desirable location is a luxury good. People who choose to pay for that luxury good - I did, and do - do so because it makes us happy, in the same way that a fine dinner or a nice car or a lovely vacation make people happy. Other people who don't derive as much job from such goods choose to save money instead.

There's absolutely no reason for tax policy to give breaks to people who really like nice cars and can't imagine living without a really nice car. The same applies to really nice Manhattan apartments.
   1943. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4266134)
Also, Good Face oversells. There was no part of the LES that had open-air dealers and fights on every corner in 2007. Rather touristy of him to describe it as such.


Fights were only common at night, and certainly not every corner. Keep in mind I was mostly there on weekends; prime drinking nights. Dealers were pretty common though. Like I said, it wasn't a slum, but it was pretty downscale by Manhattan standards. Also, I'm appalled to realize that it was probably 2005 when I was dating that particular person. Crap, getting old.

Perhaps you and Good Face can investigate, Crockett and Tubbs style. Whoever decides to be Crockett will have to get a light blue suit jacket and white pants.


Way ahead of you chief!
   1944. Matt Clement of Alexandria Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:18 PM (#4266138)

Yeah, about 5 years ago or so I was dating somebody who lived in the LES and it was a dicey neighborhood. Not sure I'd go so far as to call it a slum, but it was way shadier than most of Manhattan. There were people buying/selling drugs almost every block, and fights/loud altercations were common at night.
I moved to the LES in 2010, lived there two years, and I never saw a single drug deal in the neighborhood. I might have missed one or two that were subtle, but come on. This is "Escape from New York" loony sensationalism. I heard a few loud altercations, never saw a fight. The only fight I saw was in Soho.
   1945. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4266145)
Drug deals aren't so bad*. Just business. Drug dealers fighting for turf on the other hand is bad news.

* Yes, personal experience**. Lived in a 4-plex with a whore, a drug dealer, and guy living off of disability in the other three apartments. Only one gun shot fired (that I heard) in the the years I lived there and I am not sure if it was caused by the whore or the drug dealer (and even so might have been personal and not business - not sure).

** And no I was never a drug dealer, despite my appearance in my high school pictures. Never used, never sold.
   1946. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4266146)
What about my old block of Cathedral Parkway (AKA W 110th Street)

I haven't walked that block in many years now, sorry Andy. But maybe it gives me an incidental destination when I go next (I want to see some frame houses uptown, one of my minor obsessions; there's one at 100th & Broadway, and several over in East Harlem, so maybe I can walk across town north of Central Park.)

I'm reminded of Grant's Tomb not far from there, though, where I walked recently. That used to be somewhere you just didn't want to go; like so many Manhattan parks, Riverside Park around there was pretty awful. Now it's clean and bright and looks like any other national-monument-like attraction. These transformations are amazing and welcome.

EDIT: East Harlem in broad daylight as my 50-something male self, as 'zop recommends :)
   1947. The Id of SugarBear Blanks Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:22 PM (#4266147)
When I think slum, I think the area around Chicago Stadium, ca. 1983 or wide swaths of Detroit around the same time, carrying forward a few years. Crime everywhere, every window with bars over it, every bodega, gas station, and fast food cash register operator ensconsed behind bulletproof glass. Those were slums.
   1948. Lassus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:26 PM (#4266151)
I moved to the LES in 2010, lived there two years, and I never saw a single drug deal in the neighborhood.

To (slightly) back off a little from Good Face, the difference between 2005 and 2010 on the LES has not been inconsequential. It was really the "drug deals on every corner" that I think is a massive oversell, and even a commonality of public fights is just not what I ever experienced in that time frame.

And as far as real slums go, the Tenderloin (San Francisco) in the early-mid 90s was the only place that in the middle of the day I've ever felt truly unsafe. And I had moved there from the northeastern corner of South Central Los Angeles.
   1949. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:27 PM (#4266156)
Those were slums.


Word. Driving in Chicago and I missed my exit one time on the south side, so I decided to just follow the highway and get on at the next exit. Half a block later I turned around and got the heck out of dodge. Looked like post shelling Beirut or the set of a post apocalyptic movie. I admit I never lived in a slum like that and thankfully never will.
   1950. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:38 PM (#4266176)
and even a commonality of public fights is just not what I ever experienced in that time frame.


Meatpacking district is where to go if you want public fights nowadays. Of course, they'll probably be between women, but you take what you can get.
   1951. formerly dp Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:40 PM (#4266179)
It's still pretty common for dealers to openly sell in Washington Square Park during the day, in spite of it being a colossally stupid thing to do-- cameras everywhere, cops stationed at the south end who can be on you in a minute. But I assume if you're dealing in the park, you're really on the low end of the drug dealer food chain (same thing if you're buying in the park-- what proper NYC-dwelling adult doesn't have a reliable dealer on speed-dial?).
   1952. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:41 PM (#4266181)
In my very callow days (1979), I was looking at graduate schools, and scheduled a visit to the University of Chicago. My grandmother lived on the West Side, and I knew her neighborhood, and downtown, well enough, so I figured, I will take the Dan Ryan el to the South Side and walk over to the university. Walking across Washington Park was surreal. One guy said out loud, "I can't believe my eyes, I'm seeing a white boy walking here." I saw one fellow with a gunbelt, as if it were Tombstone, or something. The English professors at the university asked me about five times, uncomprehendingly, what train I had taken (one was supposed to take the commuter train, not the el). Hilarious in retrospect (nobody bothered me in the least).

I walked around Detroit in those years, too. And my father lived near (and died in) Camden, New Jersey: I would put Camden up against any slum experience anybody's ever had in far more famous cities.
   1953. dlf Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4266208)
When I think slum, I think the area around Chicago Stadium, ca. 1983 or wide swaths of Detroit around the same time, carrying forward a few years. Crime everywhere, every window with bars over it, every bodega, gas station, and fast food cash register operator ensconsed behind bulletproof glass. Those were slums.


I've spent much of the past four years working in India. The idea that there are windows, let alone bars over them, or bodegas, fast food, or gas stations in an area makes me think that these Chicago 'slums' are rather middle class compared to what I see on the outskirts of Mumbai.
   1954. Lassus Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:52 PM (#4266210)
I traveled with some Doctors Without Borders members in Thailand and after all they'd seen already they were shocked that they were able to be shocked by the slums we went through in Bangkok.

Similarly, some of the rural towns along the train line in Siberia were quite sobering.

Coke of sorts to dlf.
   1955. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4266222)
dlf and lassus make good points; my comments in #1952 are limited to US cities. What I saw in Maracaibo several years ago (staying for a few weeks in a convent in a barrio, long story) was orders of magnitude beyond America. Living in even the best tarpaper shanty is not quite like living in the worst old rowhome.
   1956. bunyon Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:10 PM (#4266241)
In my very callow days (1979), I was looking at graduate schools, and scheduled a visit to the University of Chicago. My grandmother lived on the West Side, and I knew her neighborhood, and downtown, well enough, so I figured, I will take the Dan Ryan el to the South Side and walk over to the university. Walking across Washington Park was surreal. One guy said out loud, "I can't believe my eyes, I'm seeing a white boy walking here." I saw one fellow with a gunbelt, as if it were Tombstone, or something. The English professors at the university asked me about five times, uncomprehendingly, what train I had taken (one was supposed to take the commuter train, not the el). Hilarious in retrospect (nobody bothered me in the least).

I had a similar experience in Baltimore. I had just moved to town and got lost trying to get to the medical campus. I parked where I thought was part of campus and tried to walk to where I needed to be. I kept telling myself it wasn't that bad - country boy scared of the city and all that. When I told people where I'd parked and walked they thought I was both crazy and lucky. I may have been crazy but I saw a lot of folks who may well have been "bad" guys. But, geez, it isn't like they just strafe anyone walking around. No one bothered me. ANd it was a very, very high crime area.
   1957. Bitter Mouse Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:41 PM (#4266296)
my comments ... are limited to US cities


Ditto. Bangkok and San Jose (Costa Rica edition) were ever so much worse, though they did not have the same post-apocalyptic vibe that Hammond Indiana (And East Chicago & Gary) had (has?) in its "Glory" days.
   1958. OCF Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:42 PM (#4266297)
In my very callow days (1979), I was looking at graduate schools, and scheduled a visit to the University of Chicago. My grandmother lived on the West Side, and I knew her neighborhood, and downtown, well enough, so I figured, I will take the Dan Ryan el to the South Side and walk over to the university. Walking across Washington Park was surreal. One guy said out loud, "I can't believe my eyes, I'm seeing a white boy walking here." I saw one fellow with a gunbelt, as if it were Tombstone, or something. The English professors at the university asked me about five times, uncomprehendingly, what train I had taken (one was supposed to take the commuter train, not the el). Hilarious in retrospect (nobody bothered me in the least).

I was a grad student there at exactly those times (1975-1980). No, I never walked across Washington Park, but I did fairly routinely take the #55 bus across that park to the El station (not the Dan Ryan El, the closer one, whatever it was called, that became the State Street subway). I would also take the #1 bus that went from the northwest corner of Hyde Park to the loop on a local route through various parts of the South Side, including some projects. No one ever messed with me. And yes, there were some pretty depressing-looking neighborhoods, although I figure that housing that backed right up to the El itself was the worst available even in those neighborhoods, because of the noise.
   1959. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:45 PM (#4266300)
Is steering an OT: Politics thread away from politics considered gentrification, or is bringing it back to politics gentrification?

Anyway, Romney is up slightly from yesterday, to +1.0 at RCP. I doubt last night will move the needle at all.
   1960. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: October 12, 2012 at 02:55 PM (#4266314)
When I think slum, I think the area around Chicago Stadium, ca. 1983


The first concert I ever went to was KISS in 1976 at the Chicago Stadium. I was 13, and went with my best friend, who was also 13. Our parents drove us, dropped us off, and said we'll meet you at this corner around 11:00, and went off to dinner or something. Today, I live in a very safe small town, and I have parents who are horrified that I leave my 13 and 10 year old kids home alone when my wife and I go out.

Different times man, different times.
   1961. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4266336)
How is this for "enthusiasm"?

The Democratic memo claimed to have registered more voters in Iowa than Republicans — 682,475 versus 669,647 — but the Republican counter-memo said they maintain a lead in registration of active voters, 622,176 to 611,284.

But the RNC memo didn’t refute other Democratic claims.

In 2008, Republicans had 259,000 more requests for absentee ballots than Democrats in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada, but now have only 64,000 more requests for absentee ballots, said the Obama memo.

But the RNC’s quick response did not counter the Democratsic claim to have registered 4.6 million people in Florida, versus the GOP’s score of 4.2 million registered Republicans.

The Democratic memo claimed to have added 285,907 registered Democrats in the last three months, more than the 171,367 new Republicans gained by GOP organizers.



Read more: http://dailycaller.com/2012/10/11/rnc-obama-campaign-trade-claims-on-voter-turnout-efforts/#ixzz2975eSltD

   1962. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4266348)
Anyway, Romney is up slightly from yesterday, to +1.0 at RCP. I doubt last night will move the needle at all.


The only way it was really going to swing the needle would be if Ryan said "If the old people would just die off sooner, we'd save so much more money in Medicare and Social Security." or if Biden said "If everyone was just honest with themselves, they'd know that socialism is the best way to go."
   1963. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4266361)
Not much in #1961 means anything vis-a-vis "enthusiasm." As I've tried to explain about 10 times, enthusiasm refers to turnout, not registration. Dems almost always lead in registration efforts, because there are more unregistered people who lean Dem than unregistered people who lean GOP. People who vote GOP don't need someone to corner them on the street and ask them to register.
   1964. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4266370)
The only way it was really going to swing the needle ...

Ryan had some additional risk due to being a lot more unfamiliar to voters than Biden.

In any event, today's news cycle puts to rest any claims that Biden won the debate. I'm seeing a lot of headlines re: the White House's attempts to "clarify" Biden's claims that the administration didn't know the consulate in Libya repeatedly requested more security. Biden really stepped in it with that claim.
   1965. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:28 PM (#4266373)
Anyway, Romney is up slightly from yesterday, to +1.0 at RCP. I doubt last night will move the needle at all.


I haven't been following but Nate still has Obama comfortably ahead, though Obama is "only" 66% to win now.

Do other polling outfits have Romney ahead? I thought I saw Joe saying that earlier but I wasn't really paying attention to the polling discussion.
   1966. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4266382)
I was a grad student there at exactly those times (1975-1980). No, I never walked across Washington Park, but I did fairly routinely take the #55 bus across that park to the El station (not the Dan Ryan El, the closer one, whatever it was called, that became the State Street subway). I would also take the #1 bus that went from the northwest corner of Hyde Park to the loop on a local route through various parts of the South Side, including some projects. No one ever messed with me. And yes, there were some pretty depressing-looking neighborhoods, although I figure that housing that backed right up to the El itself was the worst available even in those neighborhoods, because of the noise.


Funny thing is that the housing backing up on the El is about all that's occupied in the eastern section of the Washington Park neighborhood (west of the park itself). The neighborhood is better than it was back then, not because there is anything there but because they've torn down most of the abandoned buildings and it's just a lot of empty lots. The park itself has improved a lot, at least in part because it's used on the weekends by two big Midwestern cricket leagues. Nothing perks up a park like 30 Indian dudes from Milwaukee in their cricket whites. I'd never walk in it at night, however.
   1967. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4266383)
Not much in #1961 means anything vis-a-vis "enthusiasm." As I've tried to explain about 10 times, enthusiasm refers to turnout, not registration. Dems almost always lead in registration efforts, because there are more unregistered people who lean Dem than unregistered people who lean GOP. People who vote GOP don't need someone to corner them on the street and ask them to register.

So you said it 10 times and yet keep talking about the enthusiasm gap in Ohio despite the Ohio data using the exact same material you are now dismissing. Why is that? Well, we know why. Because for some reason you think the Ohio data is not good for Obama while the data I just quoted is good for Obama. Go figure.
   1968. Ron J2 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4266384)
EDIT: Intro to link got cut. Good article on the Libya situation.

this (a motherjones article) is the best summary I've seen.
   1969. Andere Richtingen Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4266387)
I would put Camden up against any slum experience anybody's ever had in far more famous cities.

Yeah, Camden is (was?) a horror show. On a cross-country trip with a couple of friends in the 1980s, one of them was extremely excited about going to see the Walt Whitman House in Camden. So we drove there, and... well, we high tailed it out of there. It did not seem like a place I wanted to park a car with a large portion of my worldly possessions in it.
   1970. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:44 PM (#4266389)
So you said it 10 times and yet keep talking about the enthusiasm gap in Ohio despite the Ohio data using the exact same material you are now dismissing. Why is that? Well, we know why. Because for some reason you think the Ohio data is not good for Obama while the data I just quoted is good for Obama. Go figure.

I made a one-off comment about Ohio that you've turned into a 10-day obsession. The daily Ohio updates are boring enough; I'm not interested in expanding the field to five more states.

***
Do other polling outfits have Romney ahead? I thought I saw Joe saying that earlier but I wasn't really paying attention to the polling discussion.

Here's a link to the latest tracking polls. Romney is ahead or tied in all of the post-debate polls.

***
this (a motherjones article) is the best summary I've seen.

If Obama has lost Mother Jones, ...
   1971. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:45 PM (#4266392)
Yeah, Camden is (was?) a horror show.


In April, I went with my son on his class trip to Philly. The first day we took the SEPTA to Camden and then walked about 6 blocks to the Aquarium. Had dinner at a pizza joint, walked back to SEPTA, then took a city bus to the hotel. It was fine. The worst part of the day was taking the trolley from the airport into downtown. Now there was some plight.
   1972. Andere Richtingen Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4266394)
On that same trip we splurged and got a hotel room near Times Square, a Days Inn somewhere around 42nd Street and 10th Avenue. Back then Times Square still had the seediness thing going on. The place was teeming with every kind of hustler. Walking west on 42nd from Broadway, guys would walk up to us and whisper, "smoke? coke? switchblades?" To this day I like to sidle up to one of my friends and whisper that.
   1973. BDC Posted: October 12, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4266401)
You saw the most presentable aspect of Camden, Misirlou. In fact if you take the ferry from Philadelphia, you can make a little beachhead at the Aquarium and the battleship New Jersey and not even have to enter Camden streets; they've done a good job with the tourist attractions, and, I hear at least, with the little ballpark nearby. Areas like those around the Whitman house are not much changed from the 1980s that Andere describes. (The linked photo is from 2009.)
   1974. JL Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4266407)
In April, I went with my son on his class trip to Philly. The first day we took the SEPTA to Camden and then walked about 6 blocks to the Aquarium. Had dinner at a pizza joint, walked back to SEPTA, then took a city bus to the hotel. It was fine. The worst part of the day was taking the trolley from the airport into downtown. Now there was some plight.

The Amtrak route from DC to NY goes through some fine neighborhoods, but the ones in Baltimore look just awful Boarded up where they are not burned out.
   1975. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:06 PM (#4266410)
I made a one-off comment about Ohio that you've turned into a 10-day obsession.

You've defended you stance about the supposed "enthusiasm" gap in Ohio numerous times.

Numbers against Obama=Good and legit
Numbers for Obama=False, meaningless, and should be ignored.
   1976. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4266411)
Do other polling outfits have Romney ahead?


The RCP average has Romney up by 1.0

In any event, today's news cycle puts to rest any claims that Biden won the debate.


Yes I think its pretty clear that Raddatz win the debate



   1977. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:08 PM (#4266414)
The Amtrak route from DC to NY goes through some fine neighborhoods, but the ones in Baltimore look just awful Boarded up where they are not burned out.

Well, it was even worse in Philly around I-95 and Vet Stadium where they had whole neighborhoods in the projects boarded and falling down. I believe they've finally knocked them all down but in the late 90's early 2000's there was a ton places in Philly one did not want to go to.
   1978. just plain joe Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:11 PM (#4266416)
I would put Camden up against any slum experience anybody's ever had in far more famous cities.


East St. Louis, IL says hello; as far as I can tell the whole town is a slum. Approaching St. Louis from the east on I-64 you get to drive through several miles of blight, squalor and general decay. The entire city would be improved by a good fire.
   1979. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:14 PM (#4266418)
Just so I can get JoeK to sputter:

Immediate polls from CBS, NBC, and Xbox Live all reported that a majority of undecided voters believed Biden won, and the prediction markets ticked up a few points in President Barack Obama's favor in the hours after the confrontation.
   1980. formerly dp Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4266424)
Immediate polls from CBS, NBC, and Xbox Live


One of these things is not like the others...
   1981. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:25 PM (#4266428)
Just so I can get JoeK to sputter:

Immediate polls from CBS, NBC, and Xbox Live all reported that a majority of undecided voters believed Biden won, and the prediction markets ticked up a few points in President Barack Obama's favor in the hours after the confrontation.

If you're forced to spend the entire day after a debate on the defensive over the deaths of Americans, you lost the debate. Glad I could clear that up for you.
   1982. SteveF Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4266432)
The thing I was most struck by last night was the high quality of Joe Biden's veneers.
   1983. The Good Face Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:30 PM (#4266434)
Well, it was even worse in Philly around I-95 and Vet Stadium where they had whole neighborhoods in the projects boarded and falling down. I believe they've finally knocked them all down but in the late 90's early 2000's there was a ton places in Philly one did not want to go to.


Mid 90s Philly had some pretty impressive slums by American standards. What always struck me was how neighborhoods could go from "good" to "bad" on a street by street basis. Never seen a city that could transition so fast from "well kept touristy area" to \"####, I probably shouldn't be here".
   1984. Portia Stanke Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4266437)
Biden's display last night made for an uncomfortable, embarrassing evening of television. Judging from the reaction of my friends on the left, he could've pounded the table with his shoe and then mooned Ryan, and they would've still contended that his behavior is appropriate because Ryan is a liar (as distinguished from the tell-it-like-it-is nature of Team Blue). As at this point I shouldn't be surprised by the positive reactions of that brand of partisan, but that might have been the single most humiliating performance that I've seen in a formal debate, national or otherwise.
   1985. Ron J2 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4266440)
Never seen a city that could transition so fast from "well kept touristy area" to \"####, I probably shouldn't be here".


I had precisely the same vibe in Manhattan in the bad old days.
   1986. Misirlou's been working for the drug squad Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:37 PM (#4266444)
Mid 90s Philly had some pretty impressive slums by American standards. What always struck me was how neighborhoods could go from "good" to "bad" on a street by street basis. Never seen a city that could transition so fast from "well kept touristy area" to \"####, I probably shouldn't be here".


Chicago was like that too. Still might be. The Rush street party district was only a block or 2 from the infamous Cabrini Green housing project.
   1987. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4266450)
As at this point I shouldn't be surprised by the positive reactions of that brand of partisan, but that might have been the single most humiliating performance that I've seen in a formal debate, national or otherwise.

An article about a focus group in Seattle had two women saying that Biden's behavior reminded them of abusive men they had just left. Yikes.
   1988. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4266456)
If folks really think Joey Giggles' performance last night was effective, they should encourage Obama to do the same. Don't think anyone on the GOP would object. Not a bit.

The debate was pretty much a draw on substance, but Biden lost big time on style. Still, he did better overall than Obama.

   1989. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: October 12, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4266466)
The debate was pretty much a draw on substance, but Biden lost big time on style.


And now we know where you get your 'news'.
   1990. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4266470)
In any event, today's news cycle puts to rest any claims that Biden won the debate.


Step 1: Lose debate.
Step 2: Have house 'news' organs feverishly spin that you didn't lose because the other guy was mean.
Step 3: Quote 'news cycle' as evidence that you didn't lose the debate.

Classic.
   1991. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:00 PM (#4266471)
And now we know where you get your 'news'.

If Biden won on substance, today's news cycle wouldn't be devoted to the Libya debacle.
   1992. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:09 PM (#4266483)
Chicago was like that too. Still might be. The Rush street party district was only a block or 2 from the infamous Cabrini Green housing project.


Since I've lived in Hyde Park there have been more murders between 61st and 63rd Streets than there have been between 47th and 60th. So, yeah, it can still be like that.

This 2011 homicide map gives a good sense of how concentrated the worst parts are.
   1993. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:12 PM (#4266487)
Typed in Vice Presidential Debate and the very first link is to the Huffington Post and their article entitled, "Vice Presidential Debate Highlights Why Paul Ryan Is Clueless On The Afghan War and Foreign Policy"

It amuses me that earlier in the day JoeK's line was that the VP debate wasn't going to move the needle a bit and now it has become that Biden lost the debate.


   1994. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4266496)
It amuses me that earlier in the day JoeK's line was that the VP debate wasn't going to move the needle a bit and now it has become that Biden lost the debate.

Uh, you do understand that both of those can be true, right?
   1995. McCoy Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4266502)
Uh, you do understand that both of those can be true, right?

In Joe's world? Of course. The debate means nothing line was basically the holding pattern line until you got your marching orders from the party organs.
   1996. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:23 PM (#4266503)
If folks really think Joey Giggles' performance last night was effective, they should encourage Obama to do the same.


I'm not surer that Obama is physically/emotionally/psychologically capable of acting like Biden...

But I sure if he tried really hard, it would be either be highly entertaining or severely cringe inducing, with no middle ground...

I also see that the famous GOP party discipline has reasserted itself bigtime, Romney has walked back from quite a few "Primary Romney" positions towards the center, with nary a peep from the nutters...

Anyway, RCP also has the Dems ahead of the Reps for generic congressional vote, so as I said 2 months ago:

My personal best case scenario is also the least likely- Romney with a Dem Congress :-)

such scenario is actually on the table so to speak.
   1997. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4266510)
In Joe's world? Of course. The debate means nothing line was basically the holding pattern line until you got your marching orders from the party organs.

Have there been a bunch of v.p. debates that clearly moved the needle after a clear win by one of the candidates, let alone after a draw or split decision? If so, you should send a correction to Nate Silver, et al.
   1998. Danny Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:31 PM (#4266511)
An article about a focus group in Seattle had two women saying that Biden's behavior reminded them of abusive men they had just left. Yikes.

Translation: A column by a right wing radio host claims two women who "watched the proceedings from a conservative perspective and wouldn’t have voted for Obama-Biden anyway" told him...

My favorite part of the column: "The rap on Paul Ryan has always been that he might prove too wonkish, numbers-driven and detail-oriented to connect with average Americans"

Reminds me of people who think they're clever when they claim to be a perfectionist in response to a "greatest weakness" question at a job interview.
   1999. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:37 PM (#4266516)
"The rap on Paul Ryan has always been that he might prove too wonkish, numbers-driven and detail-oriented to connect with average Americans"


I'm fascinated by this perception, because I've seen it in print many times, but if nothing else, Ryan's plan and his inteviews pretty conclusively establish that he is NOT numbers driven or detail oriented.
   2000. Monty Predicts a Padres-Mariners WS in 2016 Posted: October 12, 2012 at 05:39 PM (#4266517)
Have there been a bunch of v.p. debates that clearly moved the needle after a clear win by one of the candidates, let alone after a draw or split decision?


Well, I firmly believe that Admiral Stockdale's terrible performance was one of the nails in Ross Perot's coffin, but that's hard to substantiate. And it's only one example, so even if I could prove my thesis (which I can't!) it wouldn't do much.
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