Except that Nate has made similar observations about polls when they showed pro-Obama numbers that went well beyond the consensus. His consistent theme has been that outlier results should be taken with a grain of salt.

He gives Gallup more weight than any other national tracking poll. Period. 12% is 12%. And that 12% still leaves 88% as a counterweight. I'm not sure why you keep trying to inflate one poll out of many way beyond its actual significance---but I can guess. (smile)

I like this, but I think they should be even more fundamental than that. They should come up with a uniform platform focused on electoral reform, based on something simple like preference voting rather than something pie-in-the-sky like proportional representation based on overall vote totals. Build party infrastructures (and try to win the local dogcatcher races on traditional party platforms) and support each other in races where one has more of a chance at it, with the pledge that they will place electoral reform before everything else. Once we have preference voting then they're free to go for each other's throats.

But at the national level, and the state level, they should form a TPA party - the "Third Party Alliance" party - and that party's sole function should be ballot access and proportional representation.

You people don't understand. There are two, and only two, rational responses for Nate Silver to choose between. Either embrace each and every Gallup result as another flawless example of the pollster's art, or purge his system entirely of an organization that dates back to FDR's first re-election campaign. Context is for the weak.

Since when do we want subjective "context" to be a day-to-day factor in a statistical model? The overriding purpose of models like Nate's is to reduce or eliminate day-to-day noise.

And, in fact, he recommends that people use his model. He's warning against using Gallup on its own.

No matter how you slice it, it shouldn't have taken a big Romney lead to inspire the disclaimer Nate posted yesterday. Disclaimers that are posted after the fact tend to look more like spin than disclosure.

If you have to warn your readers, 19 days from Election Day, that the poll to which you deliberately gave the most weight has a years-long track record of unreliability, you've either constructed your model incorrectly or failed to properly educate your readers (or both).

Canada has MPs from five parties currently sitting in the House of Commons, but that's not a fair representation of the situation I don't suppose, as the Bloc Quebecois (separatists) will only ever run in Quebec of course. We did elect our first Green MP in the last election, and the New Democratic Party (left of the Liberals) became the official opposition to this.

Why would readers of FiveThirtyEight use Gallup on its own?

Great news!
Romney now leading Obama 52-45 in the Gallup LV

If this was the only purpose of his "Gallup vs. the World" post, it appears he was preaching to the choir.

The Conservative Party has been the ruling party in Canada since 2006.

I guess you don't read fivethirtyeight, though?

If this was the only purpose of his "Gallup vs. the World" post, it appears he was preaching to the choir.

That's your idea of a "gotcha"? Lassus had specifically asked for yesterday's tracking polls, not yesterday's FiveThirtyEight projection.

Romney now up six in Gallup's LV poll — 51-45 — and also leads 48-46 in their RV poll.

The downside of course is that Stephen Harper and the Cons formed a majority with less than 40% of the popular vote. Voter turnout was only 61%.

Anyway, I'm just ####### with you, because I'm pretty sure you're just ####### with us too, right? Right?

Walsh said he was against abortion “without exception,” including rape, incest and in cases in which the life or health of the mother was in jeopardy.

Asked by reporters after the debate if he was saying that it’s never medically necessary to conduct an abortion to save the life of a mother, Walsh responded, “Absolutely."

“With modern technology and science, you can't find one instance,” he said. “... There is no such exception as life of the mother, and as far as health of the mother, same thing.”

Walsh is running on his record and outlined his philosophy by saying he “generally tried to make a rule when I went to Washington that I was going to try to cut government spending wherever I could.”

Yet the one-term congressman also acknowledged voting for millions of dollars in government funding to sponsor NASCAR stock cars, saying he felt it was a valuable recruitment tool for the military.

Right, this is why you have to champion preference voting or something similar. Third parties cannot mathematically work in our current system of elections. It's almost like voting for the opposition.

Then again, the passing of Obamacare is the worst calamity in world history -- and yet Obama has utterly failed to accomplish anything.

The U.S. has political gridlock in a two-party system. How would a three- or four-party system change that in a positive way?

A man who was being paid to register voters by the Republican Party of Virginia was arrested Thursday after he was seen dumping eight registration forms into a dumpster.

Colin Small, 31, was working as a supervisor as part of a registration operation in eight swing states financed by the Republican National Committee. Small, of Phoenixville, Pa., was first hired by Strategic Allied Consulting, a firm that was fired by the party after suspect voter forms surfaced in Florida and other states.

A man originally reported to have been working for the Republican Party of Virginia was arrested by the Rockingham County, Va., Sheriff’s Office on Thursday and charged with attempting to destroy voter registration forms by tossing them into a dumpster behind a shopping center in Harrisonburg, Va.

“Prosecutors charged him with four counts of destruction of voter registration applications, eight counts of failing to disclose voter registration applications and one count of obstruction of justice,” according to a report late Thursday afternoon from TPM’s Ryan Reilly. More charges could be forthcoming, according to officials.

But there is more to the story, as evidence emerges to document that it ties into a still-expanding nationwide GOP Voter Registration Fraud Scandal that the BRAD BLOG first began reporting in late September, after we’d learned that the Republican Party of Florida had turned in more than 100 allegedly fraudulent and otherwise suspect voter registration forms in Palm Beach County. The story has continued to widen ever since, to a dozen Florida counties and several other states, now including Virginia, and even to the upper-echelons of the Republican Party itself.

The man arrested today was 23-year-old Colin Small of Phoenixville, Pa. As it turns out, he does not only work for the Virginia Republican Party. According to an online profile, he appears to be working for the Republican National Committee and, prior to that, served as an Intern for Rep. Mike Kelly, R-Pa., in the U.S. House of Representatives.

Joseph Tanfani at the Los Angeles Times is reporting that Small was “working as a supervisor as part of a registration operation in eight swing states financed by the Republican National Committee.”

Is that okay? Does the First Amendment get involved? Does this damage the idea of journalistic integrity? Or does it make the newspaper's bias explicit, and thus okay?

Is that okay? Does the First Amendment get involved? Does this damage the idea of journalistic integrity? Or does it make the newspaper's bias explicit, and thus okay?

Is that okay? Does the First Amendment get involved? Does this damage the idea of journalistic integrity? Or does it make the newspaper's bias explicit, and thus okay?

The outrage in that article seems bizarre.

The mother of an American diplomat killed during a terrorist raid on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi has hit out at Barack Obama for describing the attack as 'not optimal', saying: 'My son is not very optimal - he is also very dead.'

Company officials described the campaign as an effort to demonstrate the effectiveness of newspaper advertising and attract new political-ad revenue.

Joe, I asked this upthread, but you predictably ignored it: ...

I didn't reply because the premise is silly.

The only person who has "politicized" Benghazi is Obama himself.

But if you can quote yourself lobbing similar grenades at Bush when you were posting to the Fox boards, I'll withdraw my complaint.

Plus: the rhetoric you're using conflicts with your claim not to hold Obama responsible for the details.

The only person who has "politicized" Benghazi is Obama himself.

Romney issued a statement late Tuesday, before the full extent of the tragedy was known, that said the Obama administration was wrong to initially sympathize with those who waged the attacks.

“I'm outraged by the attacks on American diplomatic missions in Libya and Egypt and by the death of an American consulate worker in Benghazi," Romney said in a statement — released before he learned of the death of Stevens. "It's disgraceful that the Obama administration's first response was not to condemn attacks on our diplomatic missions, but to sympathize with those who waged the attacks.”

But if you can quote yourself lobbing similar grenades at Bush when you were posting to the Fox boards, I'll withdraw my complaint.

I don't post at the Fox boards, but I'm guessing they have smarter lefties than this place.

Now who's struggling with reading comprehension? Obama knew the truth on Day 1 but shamelessly lied through his teeth for two weeks thereafter, including at the United Nations.

Your inability to admit this basic, obvious truth just shows what an Obama Delusionist you are.

Also, Joe, is the Obama administration politicizing Benghazi or covering it up? Pick one.

The broad brush isn't helping you here. I've very publicly criticized Obama for many things, on this board, including his stance on gay marriage in an exchange with you a couple of days ago.

A liberal is mad at a liberal for being insufficiently liberal. News at 11.

Good lord, Joe, did you not read dp's lengthy and somewhat shrill shitfit about the drone strikes and how it was a perfectly reasonable and sound reason not to vote for him?

Good lord, Joe, did you not read dp's lengthy and somewhat shrill shitfit about the drone strikes and how it was a perfectly reasonable and sound reason not to vote for him?

And you still haven't actually addressed the question I raised-- did you take to the interwebs castigating Bush for Lynch, Tillman, and Abu Ghirab? Or were those "different"?

Some new material every now and then wouldn't hurt, especially given your post count. Time to retire "News at 11". And "ha ha ha". Makes you sound like you're posting on a Fox board.

Sometimes you're just being a moron.

Does the local news air at 11 p.m. everywhere but Arizona?

Do we have evidence that Bush deliberately lied about Jessica Lynch or Pat Tillman for purposes of aiding his reelection effort?

As for "Abu Ghirab," that's the fifth time you've spelled it wrong. When you're trying to trump up phony outrage, it helps if you spell the names correctly.

But anyway, since I've explicitly said Obama shouldn't be held responsible for minor details like consular security, it's unclear why you're claiming Bush was responsible for the actions of some prison guards half a world away.

Oh, gee. Some anti-Catholic bigot.

who hides behind an alias

doesn't like my political comments.

So: you're fine with a politician lying, as long as it's not an election season? And are you actually dumb enough to think that Bush lying about Tillman and Lynch wasn't done for political gain?

I'd rather make a spelling mistake than a thinking mistake. You prefer the latter. To each his own.

Apparently, you don't know what happened in Abu Ghirab. Bush says "a few bad apples" and you clap your flippers like a trained seal. Are you pretending this wasn't part of a coordinated dehumanization strategy on the part of the Bush administration?

I'm beginning to think you don't know what the word 'bigot' means. Have I said anything about the Catholic church that doesn't conform to whatever historical record you want to reference? Killing people for writing and saying things they don't like? Check. Allowing little boy rapers to keep raping little boys? Check. Denying women power because their vaginas make them inferior in God's eyes? Check.

Are you still on this? If you had achieved your crackpipe dream of becoming a GM, I'd hope you'd have the good sense not to post under your real name. But this is a chicken and the egg thought experiment that might break you.

Your political comments are inoffensive, moronic, and ultimately harmless. Your inability to generate new material is boring. That's probably the worse sin.

OK, now what? What delusion am I under?

What political gain? Those wars were already well underway, and the Lynch incident was ~18 months away from Election Day 2004.

You've made both mistakes while I've made neither. It's a joke to blame Bush for the behavior of a few prison guards halfway around the world, just as it's absurd to expect Obama to have known how many guards were stationed in Benghazi. I'm more than willing to admit the latter, but you can't bring yourself to admit the former.

This is funny. You accuse me of acting "like a trained seal," but you're the one who's exhibiting both Bush Derangement Syndrome and a bad case of Obama Delusion. There were no protests in Benghazi before the attack, and yet Obama shamelessly claimed otherwise for two weeks.

Just out of curiosity, what do you think of Islam and Islamic customs with regards to women? Are you as brave describing your feelings about that as you are your hatred for Catholicism?

Why would I hide behind an alias?

Gee, for someone whose comments are "inoffensive, moronic," "harmless," and "boring," I seem to generate a lot of replies and controversy around here. I guess that says more about the lefties here than it does about me.

You wouldn't. Because your career is in ruins and your dreams have been ground into dust. And, to make matters worse, you live in Syracuse. No one cares about you. The rest of us don't have the luxuries afforded by failure.

You're twisting yourself around a lot here. But thanks for at least Googling to find out what I was referring to. That sort of propaganda apparently sits OK with you, because it wasn't close enough to an election. That's a weird post-hoc moral standard you've established.

So you're sticking with the Bush "a few bad apples" story?

A few bad apples. Yeah, you covered that-- opened up and swallowed hard when Bush shot then one into your throat. It's not like there's a record of state-sanctioned torture or anything.

Some of their customs are really bad, reprehensible, and abominable. What does one have to do with the other? And it's worth pointing out that the Catholic church has done more to actively retard the rights of American women than any Muslim group. On top of that, last I checked, there's no Islamic organization active in the US that considers raping Imams to be immune to American law.

You wouldn't. Because your career is in ruins and your dreams have been ground into dust. And, to make matters worse, you live in Syracuse. No one cares about you. The rest of us don't have the luxuries afforded by failure.

I wouldn't brag about being a well-fed troll. But when you've struck out at everything else you've ever attempted, I guess you need something to hang your hat on.

I'm still not getting why Republicans look at the Bengazi thing as a political winner for Republicans. At the worst case scenario for the administration, they repeated some stuff that they knew to not be true for diplomatic reasons. Those statements did nothing to hurt anyone. It's a tragedy that four people died in Libya, but how many thousands died in Iraq? People aren't stupid.

Aren't you some sort of teacher or college professor?

You do realize that such a person does have to be careful about what public statements can be attributed to him or her.

Yeah, you covered that-- opened up and swallowed hard when Bush shot then one into your throat. (#3266)

Actually, I still have no idea to what you were referring. I remember the Jessica Lynch story, but I don't recall her playing any role in the 2004 election or Bush otherwise benefitting politically from her.

You really have to be deranged to believe Bush instructed some prison guards to torture Abu Ghraib prisoners. We all saw the downside; what was the alleged upside? What did Bush possibly have to gain from either wanting that behavior to go on or turning a blind eye to it?

I began that comment with "Just out of curiosity" because I was, in fact, curious if you hate Islam as much as you hate Catholicism.

I understand that a teacher or professor probably shouldn't go around saying things like:


Yeah, you covered that-- opened up and swallowed hard when Bush shot then one into your throat. (#3266)

I understand there are valid reasons to use an alias online, but it's no surprise that 95 percent of the vitriol here

This is really inappropriate, and you should retract/apologize.

Yes, the Tigers winning the ALCS.

One would think being accused of multiple auto thefts (in Issa's case) would disqualify you from election to Congress in the first place.

Where, we ask, is the pragmatic, inclusive Romney, the Massachusetts governor who left the state with a model health care plan in place, the Romney who led Utah to Olympic glory? That Romney skedaddled and is nowhere to be found.

And what of the president Romney would replace? For four years, President Barack Obama has attempted, with varying degrees of success, to pull the nation out of its worst financial meltdown since the Great Depression, a deepening crisis he inherited the day he took office.

In the first months of his presidency, Obama acted decisively to stimulate the economy. His leadership was essential to passage of the badly needed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act. Though Republicans criticize the stimulus for failing to create jobs, it clearly helped stop the hemorrhaging of public sector jobs. The Utah Legislature used hundreds of millions in stimulus funds to plug holes in the state’s budget.

At the end of the day, if Romney was Mother Theresa, Albert Schweitzer and Gandhi rolled up into one, and Obama was Jimmy Walker, you'd still vote Obama.

Eh. In response to a post where I was called a bigot, and another where I was called a coward, it's all fair game.

The worst case for the Obama administration is that they lied for political reasons, not diplomatic reasons, and the second-worst case is that they're incompetent.

Given that the president of Libya has denied all along that the YouTube video had anything to do with the attack in Benghazi, claiming Obama's deception was for "diplomatic reasons" is illogical.

And quite successfully, apparently. Per Wiki, [Issa is] the wealthiest member of Congress.

They should just merge them with the Girl Scouts and fire all the Scoutmasters. It'll work itself out on its own.

The Salt Lake Tribune endorsed Obama last time out, too. Bush before that, though. Salt Lake itself is a blueish island in the red sea that is Utah.

itsuus
It is with great passion that I like to see God restore this nation to one that will glorify His name and bring His blessing and favor on this great country once again.

Tribune responds with a Marxist support for O. Never in US history has any president acted more dictatorial as B. Hussein O. He has a total disregard for our Constitution. He told us a 10 trillion debt was un American and that he would cut it in half! And He would bring our unemployed to 5.8% and he would reform the immigrant problems. What is his record? Is he competent: Let be fare here! With a super majority he utterly failed. Yes but look at the stuff he inherited; 2 yrs with Harry Reed and Nancy Pelosi presided over the 2 yrs that led to the 08 bust. That's right he had a 2 yr jump start and after 6 yrs of hard left policies the only conclusion anyone can come to who doesn't have their head in the liberal quick sand is that Obama is nothing more than a preschooler playing with nuclear weapons, he is a disaster that is happening all around us and yet the Tribune sees this incumbent as an empty chair that can save them from these difficult times that were largely caused by Fanny and Freddy drunk on socialistic un American policies instituted largely by Lords of Democratic Party and the B Clinton repeal of the Glass Steagall Act not to mention the Un American Fed Reserve role. All that to say this; Only those without an ounce of common sense can't comprehend that Obama is doing everything in his power to wreck this country that he HATES. He can't be this stupid and "accidently" wreak this much havoc. Can Romney do better? Let's look at what we have to judge by: Romney's record on the Olympics and in Mas= Straight A's. Obama's record= FAILURE after Failure and he came to office without a record so we can't even say that he succeeded at anything at all - ever! Is Romney the candidate of choice? No, but does he love this country - yes. I would say that any 10 yr old could make Obama look like a complete failure. So obviously Romney will do just fine. He will put a stop to the stranglehold that just 3.2% of our population have on this county, the G & L. He will put a stop to tax dollars paying for abortions! He will release the natural resources that will make this the wealthiest of all nations causing companies to desire to invest here like never before. Whom will you follow? The Tribunes Marxist position - Therefore, our endorsement must go to the incumbent, a competent leader who, against tough odds, has guided the country through catastrophe and set a course that, while rocky, is pointing toward a brighter day. The president has earned a second term. Romney, in whatever guise, does not deserve a first. Or fight to bring back the America we all loved so much? Because she is about to breath her last if we don't act swiftly to save her!

**checks** Nope, Wiki says he's the wealthiest in Congress. $450MM net worth. Kohl's worth $279MM, per Wiki.

According to Roll Call's annual (2012) survey, Issa is currently 3rd at $140.55M, topped by John Kerry Heinz at $198.65M and Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Tex) at $305.46M. Kohl is 31st at $10.06M. The top 50 has 31 Republicans and 19 Democrats, but of the top 10, 6 of them (Kerry, Warner, Rockefeller, Blumenthal, Lautenberg and Feinstein are Democratic senators, and Nancy Pelosi is 13th. This list apparently excludes non-income generating wealth such as John McCain's 47 houses, stuff like that, so it's not necessarily the last word on the subject.

If you read some of the comments on that page, you'll see that this is an understatement. Here's one of the choicer ones:

Isn't Salt Lake where all the young liberal Mormon spawn move if they can't or won't go out of state?