CAN'T BELIEVE METOROLOGISTS USED MATH AND SCIENCE TO PREDICT THIS STORM. THEY MUST BE MAGIC WIZARDS.

Isn't Nate really making fifty separate predictions for the presidential election? If he's correct on all but one state, that wouldn't necessarily invalidate his methodology.

I think we'll want to look at the actual numbers on each state, which ought to reveal if there's a systemic flaw, either in Nate's methods or in the way polls are currently being done.

That article is insane.

The poll makes clear that there are really two races underway in Ohio. On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

When those two groups are combined, the TIME poll reveals, Obama leads by five points overall in Ohio.

TOLEDO, Ohio — The ad from Mitt Romney showed up on televisions here early Saturday morning without the usual public announcement that both campaigns typically use to herald their latest commercials: Chrysler, a bailout recipient, is going to begin producing Jeeps in China, an announcer says, leaving the misleading impression that the move would come at the expense of jobs here....

In the past few days his running mate, Representative Paul D. Ryan, has accused Mr. Obama of allowing the bailout to bypass nonunion workers at Delphi, a big auto parts maker with operations in Ohio; Mr. Romney has characterized Mr. Obama’s bailout plan as based on his approach; and Mr. Romney incorrectly told a rally in Defiance, Ohio, late last week outright that Jeep was considering moving its production to China. (Jeep is discussing increasing production in China for sales within China; it is not moving jobs out of Ohio or the United States, or building cars in China for export to the United States.)

It is a high-risk strategy: Jeep’s corporate parent, Chrysler, had already released a scathing statement calling suggestions that Jeep was moving American jobs to China “fantasies” and “extravagant”; news media outlets here and nationally have called the Romney campaign’s statements — initially based on a poorly worded quotation from Chrysler in a news article that was misinterpreted by blogs — misleading.

Mr. Obama’s campaign, seeking to maintain what it sees as its advantage in Ohio, responded on Monday by releasing a commercial calling Mr. Romney’s ad false and reiterating that Mr. Romney had opposed the bailout on the terms supported by Mr. Obama. And on Sunday it dispatched the investment banker who helped develop the bailout, Steven Rattner, here to discuss Jeep’s plans and the auto rescue with local news organizations.

Democrats are hoping that Mr. Romney’s latest move will draw a backlash in a city so dependent on Jeep, which has announced plans to add 1,100 jobs to an assembly plant here that is currently being refitted for the next iteration of what is now called the Jeep Liberty.

Bruce Baumhower, the president of the United Auto Workers local that oversees the major Jeep plant here, said Mr. Romney’s initial comments on moving production to China drew a rash of calls from members concerned about their jobs. When he informed them Chrysler was, in fact, is expanding its Jeep operation here, he said in an interview, “The response has been, ‘That’s pretty pitiful.’ ” ...

At the third and last debate last week in Boca Raton, Fla., Mr. Romney emphasized his position that “these companies need to go through a managed bankruptcy, and in that process they can get government help and government guarantees.”

Mr. Romney has stepped up his offense on the issue since.

So it was that he told those at the exuberant rally on Thursday in Defiance, “I saw a story today that one of the great manufacturers in this state, Jeep, now owned by the Italians, is thinking of moving all production to China.”

Mr. Romney was apparently referring to a Bloomberg News article that said Jeep would return to manufacturing in China that had been misinterpreted by several conservative blogs to mean Jeep was shifting its production to China; the company made clear in a statement that Chrysler was only resuming production in China for Chinese consumers, which it had done for years before halting in 2009 before its sale to Fiat....

"The president has been all over this and he deserves great credit," Christie said. "I've been on the phone with him, like I said, yesterday, personally, three times. He gave me his number at the White House, told me to call him if I needed anything, and he absolutely means it. It's been very good working with the president, and he and his administration have been coordinating with us great. It's been wonderful."

Given the way that Romney has not-so-swiftly tried to take credit for the auto bailout, I'm curious to see how they come up with late ads to take credit for this...

"The president has been all over this and he deserves great credit," Christie said. "I've been on the phone with him, like I said, yesterday, personally, three times. He gave me his number at the White House, told me to call him if I needed anything, and he absolutely means it. It's been very good working with the president, and he and his administration have been coordinating with us great. It's been wonderful."

A poll by Time magazine last week had Obama's advantage over Romney among early voters at 60-30 across Ohio.

And internal Republican polls also show Obama with leads even in Republican-leaning parts of the state, increasing the burden on Romney to do well on Election Day.


So far, Democratic voters casting early ballots outnumber Republicans in Ohio, Florida, Iowa, North Carolina and Nevada. Republican voters have the edge in Colorado. No votes will be counted until Nov. 6, but several battleground states report the party affiliation of people who have already cast ballots. Some, like Ohio, have large blocs of unaffiliated voters.

In North Carolina, more than 1.5 million people have cast ballots, 50 percent of them Democrats and 31 percent Republicans. In Iowa, about 471,000 people have already voted—45 percent Democrats and 32 percent Republicans. About 433,000 voters in Nevada have cast ballots, 45 percent Democrats and 37 percent Republicans.

In Florida, about 1.8 million voters have cast ballots and Democrats have edged in front of Republicans, 42 percent to 41 percent, according to a tally by the AP. Republicans had the early lead among people who voted by mail, but the Obama campaign has made a big push since in-person early voting started Saturday.

About 804,000 voters have cast ballots in Colorado, and Republicans have a slight edge over Democrats, 39 percent to 36 percent.

Why is it unpersuasive? The polls says that Obama and Romney are tied among people who intend to vote but haven't while Obama holds a commanding lead among people who have already voted. You don't need to know the color of their skin to know that isn't good for Romney.

I think the NC talk is most definitely insulated talk. Romney is picking up that state.

whether the networks put it in the too early to call or too close to call as soon as polls close.

Since Florida 2000, networks won't call states based on exit polls unless there is absolutely no doubt of the result.

When it comes time to do the November OT_Politics thread, I assume we'll have a different "Election Prediction Thread" set up?

It doesn't look like this has been linked already

I wonder why no one complained about John Kerry's financial arrangements? Would it be because he didn't earn the $$ himself? Jay Rockefeller?

I wonder why no one complained about John Kerry's financial arrangements?

I wonder why no one complained about John Kerry's financial arrangements?

New Hampshire had faced the same flooding. It’s damage was worse. Gov. John Lynch, a Democrat, called up the National Guard and cut short a trip to Europe to return to his state so he could oversee the flood response.

Forgey, according to press accounts, tried to get Romney on the phone, but she only got as far as a the Lieutenant Governor’s chief of staff. She and others started complaining to the press in the hopes of getting the governor’s attention.

The town could handle distributing donated shirts and juice. But Greenfield, with its population of 18,000, couldn’t repair this level of loss, which had been estimated to exceed $1 million. Forgey said she needed the state government to respond and for Romney to declare an emergency. But for days, Greenfield residents were on their own, with limited outside help. “We really didn’t get the response we were looking for,” she says. “I had to declare a state of emergency … We really needed help desperately, desperately.”

On the first day, Forgey says she did not hear from Romney. Nor the second day. Nor the third.

* * *

Seven years later, Forgey still brings up Lynch’s leadership as an example that Romney should have followed. “You can imagine the level of frustration as a mayor on a local level and people are saying please help us and your hands are tied,” she said. “I wished that Governor Romney had taken a page from Governor Lynch’s book and basically paid attention to what was happening in Western Massachusetts. Government is here to help people, especially in disasters.”

With some counties updates through yesterday Dem ballots are at about 400,000 and have about a 63,000 lead over Rep ballots in Ohio.

Kerrey is going to do one of those rare Liebermans and end up disliked by every single segment of political opinion before he's gone. He's just the right combination of smug centrist lecturing liberals while also not appeasing conservatives to be on the Tom Friedman 0% support platform.

I received one of thos "Dreams From My Real Father" DVDs in the mail. The description and endorsements on the mailer were good comedy but I didn't watch the movie at all for fear it would make my DVD player dumber

Game changer - Obama Camapign Takes Donations From Osama bin Ladin!

Since this doesn't account for WHO is voting early, it's entirely unpersuasive. Why isn't it simply more Obama voters voting early? In a number of states there's a history of African-Americans voting early.
Why is it unpersuasive? The polls says that Obama and Romney are tied among people who intend to vote but haven't while Obama holds a commanding lead among people who have already voted. You don't need to know the color of their skin to know that isn't good for Romney.

Seems like this would be OK to do now, since the famous one is dead.

On one hand, the two candidates are locked in a dead heat among Ohioans who have not yet voted but who say they intend to, with 45% of respondents supporting the President and 45% preferring his Republican challenger.

But Obama has clearly received a boost from Ohio’s early voting period, which began on Oct. 2 and runs through November 5. Among respondents who say they have already voted, Obama holds a two-to-one lead over Romney, 60% to 30%.

When those two groups are combined, the TIME poll reveals, Obama leads by five points overall in Ohio.

Good to see he holds no hard feelings against Obama.

Look! Obama's leading!! Except,

End result:
5m Obama.
5m Romney.

Why is it unpersuasive? The polls says that Obama and Romney are tied among people who intend to vote but haven't while Obama holds a commanding lead among people who have already voted. You don't need to know the color of their skin to know that isn't good for Romney.

A poll by Time magazine last week had Obama's advantage over Romney among early voters at 60-30 across Ohio.

Game changer - Obama Camapign Takes Donations From Osama bin Ladin!

In fact the people who donated money to Obama's campaign as fake Osama probably broke the law by doing so.

"One thing he’s gonna be asked is, why did he jump on [the hurricane] so quickly and go back to D.C. so quickly" - Michael "Brownie" Brown

Obama, who gets bashed even within his party for being too hands-off

Any campaigning will be seen mostly as dancing on the graves of victims.

Funny how the same lefties who generally loathe Chris Christie are now quoting him as the voice of reason.

"One thing he’s gonna be asked is, why did he jump on [the hurricane] so quickly and go back to D.C. so quickly" - Michael "Brownie" Brown

That man should be ashamed to still walk the earth, let alone comment on disaster response.

Funny how the same lefties who generally loathe Chris Christie are now quoting him as the voice of reason.

Also funny how Obama, who gets bashed even within his party for being too hands-off, suddenly is Mr. Hands On with Sandy. I'm sure the election being a week away has nothing to do with it.

I am just surprised Christie went off message like that, but I don't know what the relationship is between the two. Or maybe I am being cynical and he is just being honest.

He's going to attack Obama and the federal government during a disaster hitting his state?

- Campaigning after a hurricane = "dancing on the graves of victims";
- Fundraising in Las Vegas the day after four Americans were killed in a terrorist attack = perfectly acceptable.

Or maybe I am being cynical and he is just being honest.

Yeah, because, you know -- it's not really newsworthy when the GOP convention keynote speaker heaps praise on the President...

I am just surprised Christie went off message like that, but I don't know what the relationship is between the two. Or maybe I am being cynical and he is just being honest.

Yeah, because, you know -- it's not really newsworthy when the GOP convention keynote speaker heaps praise on the President...

Joek has apparently never heard (or more likely simply doesn't understand) the phrase "statement against interest".

But only yesterday, Obama's campaign people were warning that the storm shouldn't be politicized. The rules change so quickly with you guys.

But only yesterday, Obama's campaign people were warning that the storm shouldn't be politicized. The rules change so quickly with you guys.

But only yesterday, Obama's campaign people were warning that the storm shouldn't be politicized. The rules change so quickly with you guys.

Obama is politicizing the disaster?

Hey, if this is considered "politicizing", then it's a Republican who's done it. Blame him, not the Democrats.

No, the Republican said what everyone expected him to say and what basic decency and courtesy required him to say. But now Dems are acting as if Christie endorsed Obama over Romney. It's absurd.

"The president has been all over this and he deserves great credit," Christie said. "I've been on the phone with him, like I said, yesterday, personally, three times. He gave me his number at the White House, told me to call him if I needed anything, and he absolutely means it. It's been very good working with the president, and he and his administration have been coordinating with us great. It's been wonderful."

Shorter Joe: There is no emoticon for my outrage over the opposition not being as stupid as I'd like them to be for my politically expedient purposes!