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If this was so simple, is it really the liberal media cabal that's keeping anyone above you from calling attention to it?
Actually, you don't understand. I've been bashing the BLS reports all year. Putting aside today's B.S., the attention paid to the headline unemployment number has been a joke all year. Only a bunch of moronic bureaucrats — along with a lapdog, economically illiterate media — could claim progress was made when more people quit looking for work than found it, as happened last month and appears to have happened this month.
***
Are we back to this nonsense? I'm still waiting for you to explain how large numbers of 2008 independents could shift to the Dems while large numbers of 2008 Republicans shifted to independent while the overall party ID split only changed by Dem+1.
There was a story last month about how, during election season, reporters have been frantic in their efforts to get the jobs numbers as soon as they're released. Probably the one time when BLS people feel like rock stars...but I'm sure they can't wait to go back to normal, when jobs reports are just jobs reports, and people stop reading signal into a .3% fluctuation.
==
I saw my first election commercial while I was in Wisconsin last weekend, and met my first undecided voter! (well, first undecided voter who plans to vote)
Surprising lack of Mitt stickers/signs down here in South Carolina. Unsurprising lack of Obama stickers/signs, but more than I expected.
What's the actual explanation?
What are you talking about? The internet and cable TV are full of people mocking today's report, from Jack Welch to no-name market analysts.
We discussed this last month, but just in case somebody is sincerely wondering about this, the technical answer to the question here is that the "114,000 jobs" and the "0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate" come from two different sources - the latter of which showed the aforementioned 800,000 new jobs (500k of which were apparently part-time).
The measure U6, which excludes part-time jobs in its numerator and includes discouraged workers in its denominator, was unchanged in September at 14.7%, which is slightly higher than when Obama took office (14.2% in Jan, 2009, although it rose to 15.1% for his first full month in Feb, 2009) and is down from a high of 17.2% in Oct, 2009.
EDIT: Re-reading that, "excludes part-time jobs" and "includes discouraged workers" is confusing. U6 counts part-time workers (for economic reasons) as "unemployed" (i.e., part of the 17.2%) as well as discouraged workers (workers who are not seeking full-time employment, again, for economic reasons).
Edit: I stand corrected to some extent. Thanks for the info, Kiko.
Which, of course, means one of the two is dead wrong.
There is a house a couple blocks for me that has Ron Paul sign- but that's been up for more than a year, it's weather beaten and could date all the way to 2008 for all I know (I moved here last summer)
Yes, well, some of us work, no real surfing time, let alone television. Mocking?
I think what it means is that the unemployment % doesn't really measure what people might commonly think it measures, which I think has historically been a criticism of the way we report unemployment.
I agree with this, but one of the two numbers quoted in #909 still has to be dead wrong. There can't be a 0.3-point drop in unemployment with only 114,000 new jobs and without a massive number of new discouraged workers.
Oh, some guy from ABC News and some talking head on CNBC who said soemthing about "contradictory data points". Plus, right-wing blogs, which is presumably what you meant by "internet". None of whom can actually give a proper explanation, mind you.
Also, did you see Jack Welch's tweet? "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers". Awesome, just awesome.
The Heritage Foundation (a rightwing organization, mind you) thinks it's "survey error", and definitely doesn't believe it's a conspiracy.
A different neighbor had a Ron Paul sign up throught about Labor Day this year. He replaced it with an Obama sign. I have not had a chance to ask him about that yet.
They're surveys. They're almost certainly both "dead wrong". And actually, the "114,000" and "0.3-percent drop" numbers are differences between two surveys. So, we're talking about 4 different survey numbers here (2 each in Aug, Sept). But yes, there are much larger error bands around these numbers than they're generally treated as having in these sorts of discussions.
The August household survey actually showed FEWER people employed than in July (but also fewer people in the labor force overall; hence, a lower unemployment rate then), which was probably wrong on the downside and is part of why the +800,000 number seems (and is) so high.
Yeah, what could Jack Welch possibly know about the economy or hiring?
which is BLS speak for employment with "goods-producing, construction and manufacturing companies"
Total employment includes
nonfarm payroll employment
and
farm employment
and services/retail employment
and
Government employment
so asking how unemployment can drop 0.3 when nonfarm payroll employment was up only 114,000 is a bit like asking how Barry Bonds slugging % went up 175 points from 2000 to 2001 despite gaining only 9 hits.
It could be, that's how BLS compiles this data from surveys, and Sept could be wrong, but then again maybe August was, but if September was off more than likely we'd see a "correction" in October
I'll be nice to you and give you talking point
BLS shows total employment up 873,000 but "nonfarm payroll" is only 114,000, so where is BLS showing the rest? Where is the bulk of the gain?
GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT
come on, run with it.
Once again, you don't know what you're talking about. Even the lefty sites are talking about "114,000 jobs," because that's the data point that's used.
Regardless, an economy that adds 114,000 non-farm jobs and then 600,000* farm and government jobs is not an economy on the rebound. Manufacturing jobs actually fell by 16,000 last month, at least according to BLS. Does that sound like a "recovery"?
(* or whatever crazy number that survey is claiming)
Right, because his tweet was a reasoned takedown of the BLS report, using numbers and logic.
Oh, no, wait, he actually just thinks it's a conspiracy of "Chicago guys". Right. At least the Heritage Foundation guy game a reasonable and plausible (if unprovable) reason. Welch just made himself look more like a 9/11 Truther or a grumpy old grandpa than anything.
Of course, to some extent this is like suggesting that the solution to the bad weather we're having is to fire the meteorologist. I mean, the President does have a greater degree of control over the economy than a meteorologist has over the weather, but not by much.
When someone tries to tell you that 2+2=5, you don't need to spend an hour re-testing math's basic theorems.
No, you just blame liberals. I get it.
This is exactly the sort of thing that would screw up the "seasonal adjustment" model used. If the "seasonal adjustment" process expected a bunch of new jobs in August, but those instead show up in September this year, this would show up as a weak "seasonally adjusted" August followed by a strong "seasonally adjusted" September. I have no idea if such a thing happened, but that's how the math would work.
you are so cute just adorable.
Go look at 903 that's quote from BLS
the 114,000 is a sub-set of that 873,000
So your job, if you are 1/10th as bright as you think you are, should be to ask where is BLS coming up with that 873,000, since it's that increase of 873,000 that's driving that 0.3 increase.
Hint hint, post 921.
I already covered the putrid jobs report in #924. An economy that adds an insufficient number of non-farm jobs to cover population growth isn't an economy in recovery.
Recovering player agent. More consulting now.
But it's not a huge number of added farm jobs
From BLS table A-8
August 2012
farm employment seasonally adjusted, up 58,000 (not seasonally adjusted, up 47,000)
rather, the big driver is:
Government employment seasonally adjusted up 187,000 (not seasonally adjusted up 934,000*)
*not a typo- or not mine anyway
This administration is so dishonest, I wouldn't be surprised if they counted the people hired to work on Election Day as "new jobs." That would explain the big jump in both government hiring and part-time work. Otherwise, with governments strapped for cash, how could there have been such a big jump in government hiring? Is anyone's local or state government hiring rather than announcing layoffs and service cutbacks?
I always assumed so, if not, they share they same politics...
FWIW my name doppelgangers tend to fall into two categories, priests and geologists (in this country, in the "mother country" you can add civil servant to that list.
Anyone else try googling your won name?
see was that so hard?
I think he says he's in Mexico, and some Primates have speculated...
Personally I think there's a chance he's a real life lefty insurgent- like Subcomandante Marcos, and this Joe K persona is just meant to throw the Federales off his trail.
With the exception of vast flocks of passenger pigeons commenting on Tippecanoe and Tyler Too, I suppose.
This site is fun.
"There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named (my name)." I hope it's not fewer than one. That would be disconcerting.
FWIW, that's something like 2.6% of total farm employment, so it's huge within the economic sector. But within the economy as a whole, no.
Mostly for people who have an interest in buying or investing in a team (MLB and MiLB).
I've lived in Mexico since 2007, although I'm in Syracuse right now (which, more than the election, probably explains my grumpy mood).
"There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Joe Kehoskie."
So much for hiding in plain sight ...
In the first place, it's not entirely clear who on the Syrian side fired into the Turkish town. It was mortar fire, and more than one side of the Syrian civil war has mortars.
I did see some vague reference somewhere to the Turks using radar to tell where the shells came from. Fire-finder radar, maybe? The Turkish army is a NATO army. I'd expect that they're quite well equipped and have access to some good stuff. And if you're the crew of an artillery piece and you have ask about firing on a force that has fire-finder radar and guns or rockets tied into that radar, then you're asking, "Do I want to die right now?"
But the Turkish army should also be disciplined and controlled, and I don't see all the parts of the Turkish government agreeing on any cross-border invasion. The border forces will defend themselves, but that's probably it.
Where "history" = "last 20 minutes."
do they still paint the fire hydrants orange?
From the looks of things, the only ones painting the fire hydrants around here are dogs.
This is like when 52nd Street by Billy Joel was the best-selling CD of all time.
Let's see
there's me
there's my son...
there's that guy who used to be a Geology student/prof but who has now gone over to the dark side and works of ran oil company (wise career choice though)
that's at least 3
the monsignor seems to have passed on though (he was OLD when when my Aunt met him years ago, but he was alive and kicking after 2000...)
I don't but my wife does when she is bored. That's why I don't post on any internet site under my real name.
There's 2 or fewer of me, but only 1 or fewer of both my kids. Gee, I hope nothing happened to them in school today.
Yes, and the Turkish military is actually quite large and considered quite capable
Assad would have to have an absolute death wish to blunder his way into a shooting war, Turkey is RIGHT THERE on his border, they can literally pour as many military assets into Syria as we poured into Iraq in 20003
And one or less of me. I'm really hoping it's the former and not the latter.
Uncle Dan, is that you?
But there's a Swedish competitive beard-grower I am now determined to meet someday.
So, according to this site, my name is as common as "Kumquat Hitlerpenis".
Teacher ridicules student for wearing Romney t-shirt.
Is that of the Danbury Hitlerpenis's?
There are 7,862 people in the U.S. with the first name Dong.
There are 8,542 people in the U.S. with the last name Dong.
There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Dong Dong.
Proof that Americans have more sensibilities than the Red Chinese
If the teacher did what the article alleges the teacher should be fired.
still kicking as of 2010, over 70 years in the priesthood...
So what you're saying is, she should have her kids taken away?
Just another example of
stonemasonliberal bias.There are 16,515 people in the U.S. with some variant of my Americanized last name.
There are probably about 25 million people with my Chinese last name.
There are 89 people in the U.S. with my name. That's oddly specific.
Yes. Also there is a drink named Irving.
I agree. You don't run a classroom like that.
Correct.
Early voting has begun and we should see the totals go up dramatically.
What happens if there is a major revelation about either candidate in the coming weeks, or if a real-time event leaves either making an egregious error?
Can someone ask for their vote back?
I get absentee balloting for someone who will be out of town or who is a shut-in, but I find it funny that "undecided" voters get ripped as ignorant while people who vote weeks in advance get a pass. Different from someone who knows who they prefer 6 months ago, but is able to go to the polls with knowledge of the entire campaign on Election Day...
See, I think this rant is really instructive. Republicans really believe deeply in the incompetence of government and in manipulating it to further their purposes. The BLS is a huge success story of government. It's the single best resource for employment information in the world. Just try to use Eurostat for 10 minutes and you'll see how great the BLS is.
The Republican brand is tied up in making people believe that government is bad, so they naturally seem to gravitate towards explanations of corruption and dysfunction. However, the BLS is an important example of things that government does better than the private sector, and I think today is a good day to celebrate them.
The fact that Kehoskie is whinging about it just makes it sweeter.
Your playing coy isn't fooling anyone, "Fernigal."
In a related note:
A few years ago, I saw a birth announcement in my local paper for a boy who had my name in reverse (Lastname Firstname).
I figured he's my mortal enemy (like matter/anti-matter), so I am getting myself ready for some young whippersnapper to hunt me down and try to kill me in about 15-20 years.
I promised my wife I wouldn't go after him until he came after me first.
Stupid ####### teacher.
Interesting point, and something that gets little attention. I'm all for multi-day voting if it helps people who work odd hours, etc., but it seems nuts that people are allowed to vote a month in advance. It seems like a system that's clearly rigged to benefit the party with higher voter registration.
***
If the BLS wants to avoid ridicule, it should stop releasing figures that a second-grader can recognize as inconsistent. Today's report is utter garbage.
Three weeks ago, the private-sector job market was so horrendous The Ben Bernanke used it to justify open-ended QE3. Now, we're supposed to believe Sept. 2012 was the best month for hiring in 30 years? Either Bernanke is incompetent or the BLS is incompetent. Anyone who takes today's report at face value is an economic illiterate.
As for the BLS being a "huge success story of government," if that's true, it's proof positive of just how much incompetence there is in government. BLS says a measly 114,000 jobs dropped the headline unemployment rate by 0.3 points? BLS issues a total jobs estimate of 800,000 (including part-time) with a margin of error of 400,000? Are these people serious?
No, it isn't amazing at all. It's routine.
Total nonsense. I've been bashing the BLS numbers for years. Today their garbage was just more rotten than usual.
Total nonsense. I've been bashing the BLS numbers for years.
Really? To whom? Your priest? You've only been posting here since December of 2010.
Yes, I never had any opinions before I started commenting at BBTF two years ago. (Oops, sorry, one year and ten months ago. I know how much the pedants here live for making trivial corrections.)
Is this like when you bashed TShipman for linking to the WSJ and then linked to the WSJ yourself?
See, again, this is part of the larger agenda of trying to discredit government. The +- on the BLS jobs number is really high--it's 100k. The BLS says that the jobs created in September are between 214K and 4K with a 95% confidence. BLS is very explicit about this.
The unemployment % is calculated off of a separate, larger survey. Joe knows both of these facts, because they have been explained to him, in painstaking detail. He doesn't care, because he's invested in the idea that government is incompetent. The fact that the BLS does a better job at this than any private agency or any other government in the world doesn't fit the narrative.
Let's celebrate the BLS.
Also:
This is incoherent. 7.8% is a very bad, no good, awful unemployment number. The difference between 8.1% and 7.8% does not make the difference between a robust recovery that risks inflation and a stagnant recovery that is vulnerable to expectations of congressional incompetence. 7.8% is 148% above the levels consistent with the Fed's mandate.
No, I care precisely because I know those two facts. Today's BLS report is the equivalent of TBS saying that Josh Hamilton's OPS is either .930 ... or .690. Or maybe neither. It's a joke. They take information from two different sources and then throw it out there despite knowing that only one of the numbers could possibly be correct.
This is the second or third time you've said this tonight. Is it a joke or are you some sort of government groupie? I can understand "celebrating" the U.S. Constitution or the Emancipation Proclamation, but who "celebrates" a government bureaucracy? That's just ... weird.
You might want to tell Obama, because on the campaign trail today, he sounded like the good times are here again — despite U6 being exactly where it was last month.
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