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Tuesday, October 02, 2012

OTP: October 2012-THE RACE: As Candidates Prep, Attention in DC split between politics and baseball

While President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney bone up in Nevada and Colorado for Wednesday’s opening debate, back in the nation’s capital attention is split between the hard-fought presidential race and baseball playoffs.

The Nationals won the first division baseball championship for a Washington team since 1933 by clinching the National League East race Monday night.

Washington, D.C., has the only ballpark where so many Cabinet members, politicians and other luminaries routinely gather and where fans now are openly rooting for a particular president — one who served more than a century ago, Theodore Roosevelt.

“Let Teddy Win” banners and buttons are everywhere. Fans like 2008 GOP presidential nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona say it’s time for Roosevelt’s 500-plus losing streak to end.

[...]

“Teddy, you are the victim of a vast left-wing conspiracy by the commie pinko libs in this town,” McCain said in a video played in the stadium Monday night. “But you can overcome that.”

The October 2012 “OT: Politics” thread starts ... now.

Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 02, 2012 at 02:14 PM | 6119 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nationals, politics

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   901. Lassus Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4255301)
We already knew this administration is absolutely shameless, but today is further proof. How in the hell could a measly 114,000 jobs translate into a 0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate when 114,000 jobs doesn't even cover population growth? The only way these numbers work is if an additional ~750,000 people stopped looking for work since last month. It's nuts. Anyone who believes these numbers is an economic illiterate.

If this was so simple, is it really the liberal media cabal that's keeping anyone above you from calling attention to it?
   902. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4255302)
Just so I understand this correctly:

When the numbers are bad for Obama/Democrats, then it's perfectly legit and should be trumpeted repeatedly so everyone knows about them.

Actually, you don't understand. I've been bashing the BLS reports all year. Putting aside today's B.S., the attention paid to the headline unemployment number has been a joke all year. Only a bunch of moronic bureaucrats — along with a lapdog, economically illiterate media — could claim progress was made when more people quit looking for work than found it, as happened last month and appears to have happened this month.

***
you demonstrated with your impressive display of mathematical incompetence earlier in this thread that you are the ONLY one here who could ever be fooled into plugging 2+2=5 into any model.

Are we back to this nonsense? I'm still waiting for you to explain how large numbers of 2008 independents could shift to the Dems while large numbers of 2008 Republicans shifted to independent while the overall party ID split only changed by Dem+1.
   903. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:02 PM (#4255304)
Any way, according to BLS:

Total employment rose by 873,000 in September, following 3 months of little
change. The employment-population ratio increased by 0.4 percentage point to
58.7 percent, after edging down in the prior 2 months. The overall trend in
the employment-population ratio for this year has been flat. The civilian labor
force rose by 418,000 to 155.1 million in September, while the labor force
participation rate was little changed at 63.6 percent. (See table A-1.)


   904. formerly dp Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4255306)
EDIT: I have no idea whether Klein's analysis is accurate, but I'm glad to see somebody talking about a jobs report as though it were a jobs report.


There was a story last month about how, during election season, reporters have been frantic in their efforts to get the jobs numbers as soon as they're released. Probably the one time when BLS people feel like rock stars...but I'm sure they can't wait to go back to normal, when jobs reports are just jobs reports, and people stop reading signal into a .3% fluctuation.

==
I'm finally starting to see some lawn signs and such, even some bumper stickers, but none for Obama or Romney though


I saw my first election commercial while I was in Wisconsin last weekend, and met my first undecided voter! (well, first undecided voter who plans to vote)

Surprising lack of Mitt stickers/signs down here in South Carolina. Unsurprising lack of Obama stickers/signs, but more than I expected.
   905. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4255307)
So, Joe - what's actually happening here? Are the numbers just flat wrong? Are they cooked? Were altered or fixed to look good by the Obama administration?

What's the actual explanation?
   906. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:05 PM (#4255308)
If this was so simple, is it really the liberal media cabal that's keeping anyone above you from calling attention to it?

What are you talking about? The internet and cable TV are full of people mocking today's report, from Jack Welch to no-name market analysts.
   907. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:06 PM (#4255309)
How in the hell could a measly 114,000 jobs translate into a 0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate when 114,000 jobs doesn't even cover population growth?


We discussed this last month, but just in case somebody is sincerely wondering about this, the technical answer to the question here is that the "114,000 jobs" and the "0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate" come from two different sources - the latter of which showed the aforementioned 800,000 new jobs (500k of which were apparently part-time).

The measure U6, which excludes part-time jobs in its numerator and includes discouraged workers in its denominator, was unchanged in September at 14.7%, which is slightly higher than when Obama took office (14.2% in Jan, 2009, although it rose to 15.1% for his first full month in Feb, 2009) and is down from a high of 17.2% in Oct, 2009.

EDIT: Re-reading that, "excludes part-time jobs" and "includes discouraged workers" is confusing. U6 counts part-time workers (for economic reasons) as "unemployed" (i.e., part of the 17.2%) as well as discouraged workers (workers who are not seeking full-time employment, again, for economic reasons).
   908. SteveF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:07 PM (#4255310)
The revisions added 86K jobs, so you would expect with 200K total reported new jobs relative to the last reported unemployment rate of 8.1% for the number to go down since you need roughly 150K new jobs a month to keep up with population growth.

Edit: I stand corrected to some extent. Thanks for the info, Kiko.
   909. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:09 PM (#4255312)
We discussed this last month, but just in case somebody is sincerely wondering about this, the technical answer to the question here is that the "114,000 jobs" and the "0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate" come from two different sources - the latter of which showed the aforementioned 800,000 new jobs (500k of which were apparently part-time).

Which, of course, means one of the two is dead wrong.
   910. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:10 PM (#4255313)
A neighbor down the street has a yard sign for Obama


There is a house a couple blocks for me that has Ron Paul sign- but that's been up for more than a year, it's weather beaten and could date all the way to 2008 for all I know (I moved here last summer)
   911. Lassus Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4255314)
What are you talking about? The internet and cable TV are full of people mocking today's report, from Jack Welch to no-name market analysts.

Yes, well, some of us work, no real surfing time, let alone television. Mocking?
   912. SteveF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:11 PM (#4255315)
Which, of course, means one of the two is dead wrong.


I think what it means is that the unemployment % doesn't really measure what people might commonly think it measures, which I think has historically been a criticism of the way we report unemployment.
   913. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4255319)
I think what it means is that the unemployment % doesn't really measure what people might commonly think it measures, which I think has historically been a criticism of the way we report unemployment.

I agree with this, but one of the two numbers quoted in #909 still has to be dead wrong. There can't be a 0.3-point drop in unemployment with only 114,000 new jobs and without a massive number of new discouraged workers.
   914. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4255320)
The internet and cable TV are full of people mocking today's report, from Jack Welch to no-name market analysts.

Oh, some guy from ABC News and some talking head on CNBC who said soemthing about "contradictory data points". Plus, right-wing blogs, which is presumably what you meant by "internet". None of whom can actually give a proper explanation, mind you.

Also, did you see Jack Welch's tweet? "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers". Awesome, just awesome.

The Heritage Foundation (a rightwing organization, mind you) thinks it's "survey error", and definitely doesn't believe it's a conspiracy.
   915. JL Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4255321)
There is a house a couple blocks for me that has Ron Paul sign- but that's been up for more than a year, it's weather beaten and could date all the way to 2008 for all I know (I moved here last summer)

A different neighbor had a Ron Paul sign up throught about Labor Day this year. He replaced it with an Obama sign. I have not had a chance to ask him about that yet.
   916. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:17 PM (#4255324)
Which, of course, means one of the two is dead wrong


They're surveys. They're almost certainly both "dead wrong". And actually, the "114,000" and "0.3-percent drop" numbers are differences between two surveys. So, we're talking about 4 different survey numbers here (2 each in Aug, Sept). But yes, there are much larger error bands around these numbers than they're generally treated as having in these sorts of discussions.

The August household survey actually showed FEWER people employed than in July (but also fewer people in the labor force overall; hence, a lower unemployment rate then), which was probably wrong on the downside and is part of why the +800,000 number seems (and is) so high.
   917. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:18 PM (#4255325)
Also, did you see Jack Welch's tweet? "Unbelievable jobs numbers..these Chicago guys will do anything..can't debate so change numbers". Awesome, just awesome.

Yeah, what could Jack Welch possibly know about the economy or hiring?
   918. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:21 PM (#4255327)
A different neighbor had a Ron Paul sign up through about Labor Day this year. He replaced it with an Obama sign. I have not had a chance to ask him about that yet.
All it took was a visit from from Chicago goons.
   919. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:22 PM (#4255328)
The 114,000 figure is for "nonfarm payroll employment"

which is BLS speak for employment with "goods-producing, construction and manufacturing companies"

Total employment includes

nonfarm payroll employment

and

farm employment

and services/retail employment

and

Government employment

so asking how unemployment can drop 0.3 when nonfarm payroll employment was up only 114,000 is a bit like asking how Barry Bonds slugging % went up 175 points from 2000 to 2001 despite gaining only 9 hits.

   920. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:24 PM (#4255331)
The Heritage Foundation (a rightwing organization, mind you) thinks it's "survey error", and definitely doesn't believe it's a conspiracy.


It could be, that's how BLS compiles this data from surveys, and Sept could be wrong, but then again maybe August was, but if September was off more than likely we'd see a "correction" in October
   921. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:27 PM (#4255333)
By the way Joe?
I'll be nice to you and give you talking point
BLS shows total employment up 873,000 but "nonfarm payroll" is only 114,000, so where is BLS showing the rest? Where is the bulk of the gain?

GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT

come on, run with it.





   922. Monty Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:30 PM (#4255336)
I saw a bumper sticker today that said, "Obama/Biden 2012. Still the best choice of the available options." Exciting!
   923. Tilden Katz Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4255338)
Nixon once thought the "Jews" at the BLS were cooking the books to make him look bad. Maybe they're still there and are trying to make Obama look better.
   924. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4255339)
so asking how unemployment can drop 0.3 when nonfarm payroll employment was up only 114,000 is a bit like asking how Barry Bonds slugging % went up 175 points from 2000 to 2001 despite gaining only 9 hits.

Once again, you don't know what you're talking about. Even the lefty sites are talking about "114,000 jobs," because that's the data point that's used.

Regardless, an economy that adds 114,000 non-farm jobs and then 600,000* farm and government jobs is not an economy on the rebound. Manufacturing jobs actually fell by 16,000 last month, at least according to BLS. Does that sound like a "recovery"?


(* or whatever crazy number that survey is claiming)
   925. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:33 PM (#4255341)
Yeah, what could Jack Welch possibly know about the economy or hiring?

Right, because his tweet was a reasoned takedown of the BLS report, using numbers and logic.

Oh, no, wait, he actually just thinks it's a conspiracy of "Chicago guys". Right. At least the Heritage Foundation guy game a reasonable and plausible (if unprovable) reason. Welch just made himself look more like a 9/11 Truther or a grumpy old grandpa than anything.
   926. SteveF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:35 PM (#4255345)
You don't really need to dismiss this via conspiracy to spin this on the right. You just point to the U6 numbers that have essentially been flat over the Obama presidency (spiking early, still higher than when Obama took office) and claim he hasn't done enough to help the economy and should be replaced.

Of course, to some extent this is like suggesting that the solution to the bad weather we're having is to fire the meteorologist. I mean, the President does have a greater degree of control over the economy than a meteorologist has over the weather, but not by much.
   927. Shredder Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:36 PM (#4255346)
Yeah, what could Jack Welch possibly know about the economy or hiring?
Probably less than he knows about fudging numbers and cooking the books.
   928. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4255348)
Right, because his tweet was a reasoned takedown of the BLS report, using numbers and logic.

When someone tries to tell you that 2+2=5, you don't need to spend an hour re-testing math's basic theorems.
   929. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:38 PM (#4255349)
When someone tries to tell you that 2+2=5, you don't need to spend an hour re-testing math's basic theorems.

No, you just blame liberals. I get it.
   930. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:39 PM (#4255351)
A huge number of added farm jobs is actually somewhat plausible. Most of the nation's agricultural areas spent the summer in a massive drought, while there has been actual rain over the last couple of months leading to the possibility of some unexpectedly successful late-season harvests. I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern of farm work this year was extremely screwy, basically no jobs at all until very late in the year.
   931. Famous Original Joe C Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4255353)
SteveF, I agree with your [926]. It's laughable yet sadly somehow predictable that instead the shouting is that the books must be cooked.
   932. GregD Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:41 PM (#4255355)
Yeah, what could Jack Welch possibly know about the economy or hiring?
Well given GE's decade-long book-cooking that commenced in Welch's tenure he surely knows something about how to stuff the numbers.
   933. Kiko Sakata Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4255356)
I wouldn't be surprised if the pattern of farm work this year was extremely screwy, basically no jobs at all until very late in the year.


This is exactly the sort of thing that would screw up the "seasonal adjustment" model used. If the "seasonal adjustment" process expected a bunch of new jobs in August, but those instead show up in September this year, this would show up as a weak "seasonally adjusted" August followed by a strong "seasonally adjusted" September. I have no idea if such a thing happened, but that's how the math would work.
   934. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:42 PM (#4255357)
so asking how unemployment can drop 0.3 when nonfarm payroll employment was up only 114,000 is a bit like asking how Barry Bonds slugging % went up 175 points from 2000 to 2001 despite gaining only 9 hits.

Once again, you don't know what you're talking about.


you are so cute just adorable.
Go look at 903 that's quote from BLS

Total employment rose by 873,000 in September

the 114,000 is a sub-set of that 873,000

So your job, if you are 1/10th as bright as you think you are, should be to ask where is BLS coming up with that 873,000, since it's that increase of 873,000 that's driving that 0.3 increase.

Hint hint, post 921.

   935. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:46 PM (#4255359)
So is Joe K here the same Joe K who's a player agent? Seems like the answer is probably yes, just curious.
   936. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:47 PM (#4255360)
the 114,000 is a sub-set of that 873,000

So your job, if you are 1/10th as bright as you think you are, should be to ask where is BLS coming up with that 873,000, since it's that increase of 873,000 that's driving that 0.3 increase.

Hint hint, post 921.

I already covered the putrid jobs report in #924. An economy that adds an insufficient number of non-farm jobs to cover population growth isn't an economy in recovery.
   937. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:48 PM (#4255362)
So is Joe K here the same Joe K who's a player agent? Seems like the answer is probably yes, just curious.

Recovering player agent. More consulting now.
   938. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:49 PM (#4255363)
A huge number of added farm jobs is actually somewhat plausible.


But it's not a huge number of added farm jobs

From BLS table A-8
August 2012
farm employment seasonally adjusted, up 58,000 (not seasonally adjusted, up 47,000)

rather, the big driver is:

Government employment seasonally adjusted up 187,000 (not seasonally adjusted up 934,000*)



*not a typo- or not mine anyway
   939. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:51 PM (#4255364)
BLS shows total employment up 873,000 but "nonfarm payroll" is only 114,000, so where is BLS showing the rest? Where is the bulk of the gain?

GOVERNMENT EMPLOYMENT

This administration is so dishonest, I wouldn't be surprised if they counted the people hired to work on Election Day as "new jobs." That would explain the big jump in both government hiring and part-time work. Otherwise, with governments strapped for cash, how could there have been such a big jump in government hiring? Is anyone's local or state government hiring rather than announcing layoffs and service cutbacks?
   940. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:52 PM (#4255368)
So is Joe K here the same Joe K who's a player agent? Seems like the answer is probably yes, just curious


I always assumed so, if not, they share they same politics...

FWIW my name doppelgangers tend to fall into two categories, priests and geologists (in this country, in the "mother country" you can add civil servant to that list.


Anyone else try googling your won name?
   941. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4255370)
Recovering player agent. More consulting now.
Within baseball, for teams? Or a different field? I'm just being nosy.
   942. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:53 PM (#4255371)
This administration is so dishonest, I wouldn't be surprised if they counted the people hired to work on Election Day as "new jobs." That would explain the big jump in both government hiring and part-time work. Otherwise, with governments strapped for cash, how could there have been such a big jump in government hiring?


see was that so hard?
   943. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4255372)
Within baseball, for teams? Or a different field? I'm just being nosy.


I think he says he's in Mexico, and some Primates have speculated...

Personally I think there's a chance he's a real life lefty insurgent- like Subcomandante Marcos, and this Joe K persona is just meant to throw the Federales off his trail.
   944. BDC Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:56 PM (#4255373)
USA Today reports:

Twitter spokeswoman Rachael Horwitz says the debate was the most tweeted about political event in U.S. history


With the exception of vast flocks of passenger pigeons commenting on Tippecanoe and Tyler Too, I suppose.
   945. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: October 05, 2012 at 03:57 PM (#4255377)
Anyone else try googling your won name?
Has anyone not?

This site is fun.
   946. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4255378)
This site is fun.


"There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named (my name)." I hope it's not fewer than one. That would be disconcerting.

farm employment seasonally adjusted, up 58,000 (not seasonally adjusted, up 47,000)


FWIW, that's something like 2.6% of total farm employment, so it's huge within the economic sector. But within the economy as a whole, no.
   947. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:02 PM (#4255381)
Within baseball, for teams? Or a different field? I'm just being nosy.

Mostly for people who have an interest in buying or investing in a team (MLB and MiLB).

I think he says he's in Mexico, and some Primates have speculated...

I've lived in Mexico since 2007, although I'm in Syracuse right now (which, more than the election, probably explains my grumpy mood).

Has anyone not?
This site is fun.

"There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Joe Kehoskie."

So much for hiding in plain sight ...
   948. OCF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:04 PM (#4255383)
Re: post 868 and artillery fire across the Turkish-Syrian border.

In the first place, it's not entirely clear who on the Syrian side fired into the Turkish town. It was mortar fire, and more than one side of the Syrian civil war has mortars.

I did see some vague reference somewhere to the Turks using radar to tell where the shells came from. Fire-finder radar, maybe? The Turkish army is a NATO army. I'd expect that they're quite well equipped and have access to some good stuff. And if you're the crew of an artillery piece and you have ask about firing on a force that has fire-finder radar and guns or rockets tied into that radar, then you're asking, "Do I want to die right now?"

But the Turkish army should also be disciplined and controlled, and I don't see all the parts of the Turkish government agreeing on any cross-border invasion. The border forces will defend themselves, but that's probably it.
   949. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:15 PM (#4255392)
Twitter spokeswoman Rachael Horwitz says the debate was the most tweeted about political event in U.S. history


Where "history" = "last 20 minutes."
   950. SteveF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:18 PM (#4255393)
Re: 948 The Turks do have Firefinder. I'm not sure what the terrain is like there at the border (i.e. what changes in elevation -- Firefinder needs line of sight), but I suspect the mortar fire would come from a decent distance, so you'd expect that to be a situation in which Firefinder would work well.
   951. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:23 PM (#4255397)
lthough I'm in Syracuse right now


do they still paint the fire hydrants orange?
   952. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4255401)

From the looks of things, the only ones painting the fire hydrants around here are dogs.
   953. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:26 PM (#4255402)
Twitter spokeswoman Rachael Horwitz says the debate was the most tweeted about political event in U.S. history


This is like when 52nd Street by Billy Joel was the best-selling CD of all time.
   954. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:27 PM (#4255403)
There are 2 or fewer people in the U.S. named...


Let's see

there's me
there's my son...

there's that guy who used to be a Geology student/prof but who has now gone over to the dark side and works of ran oil company (wise career choice though)

that's at least 3
the monsignor seems to have passed on though (he was OLD when when my Aunt met him years ago, but he was alive and kicking after 2000...)


   955. just plain joe Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:28 PM (#4255404)
Anyone else try googling your won name?
Has anyone not?


I don't but my wife does when she is bored. That's why I don't post on any internet site under my real name.
   956. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:31 PM (#4255407)
There's only 117 people in the US with my last name.

There's 2 or fewer of me, but only 1 or fewer of both my kids. Gee, I hope nothing happened to them in school today.
   957. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:33 PM (#4255410)
The Turkish army is a NATO army. I'd expect that they're quite well equipped and have access to some good stuff. And if you're the crew of an artillery piece and you have ask about firing on a force that has fire-finder radar and guns or rockets tied into that radar, then you're asking, "Do I want to die right now?"


Yes, and the Turkish military is actually quite large and considered quite capable
Assad would have to have an absolute death wish to blunder his way into a shooting war, Turkey is RIGHT THERE on his border, they can literally pour as many military assets into Syria as we poured into Iraq in 20003
   958. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:41 PM (#4255414)
117 people with my last name too!

And one or less of me. I'm really hoping it's the former and not the latter.
   959. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:43 PM (#4255418)
117 people with my last name too!


Uncle Dan, is that you?
   960. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4255426)
I'm the only myname in the U.S., apparently.
But there's a Swedish competitive beard-grower I am now determined to meet someday.
   961. Fernigal McGunnigle has become a merry hat Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:47 PM (#4255427)
I think that 117 is sort of the default number that means "not very many":

There are fewer than 117 people in the U.S. with the last name Hitlerpenis.


There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Kumquat Hitlerpenis.


So, according to this site, my name is as common as "Kumquat Hitlerpenis".
   962. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:48 PM (#4255429)


Many Republicans can't help but wonder if a student wearing a pro-Obama T-Shirt in a Philadelphia school would have been subject to the kind of humiliation that Samantha Pawlucy was forced to endure.

The 16-year old sophomore, who attends Charles Carroll High School, told CNC's Larry Kudlow, that she was humiliated by a teacher for wearing a T-shirt in support of Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan.

She said the teacher compared her to the worst racists in history -- the Ku Klux Klan.

"It was really embarrassing, and I think she did it because she's against Mitt Romney," Samantha said.

"I was really nervous," she added, "and I was worried that after class, people were going to come up to me and say something."

Events unfolded last Friday. Nothing out of the ordinary happened until the student arrived at her geometry class -- before that time the shirt didn't raise any objections.

However, the offending teacher saw the Romney / Ryan shirt "and told me to get out of the classroom, I said no," Samantha explained on "The Kudlow Report." (Read More Below the Video.)

Philly Student Ridiculed Over Romney T-ShirtSamantha Pawlucy, a 16-year-old student in Philadelphia says that a teacher ridiculed her for wearing a Mitt Romney t-shirt in class. CNBC's Larry Kudlow weighs in.

When she stood her ground and refused to change, Samantha said the teacher pulled her into the hall and encouraged others to make fun of her. And according to news reports, the teacher attempted to scribble on the shirt.

Samantha also admitted to Kudlow that she was so embarrassed by what happened she hasn't returned to class. "I don't want to be threatened and I want the teacher to be fired."

Samantha's father Richard Pawlucy is beside himself. He told Larry Kudlow that he wouldn't tolerate his daughter being bullied by anybody let alone a teacher.

Although they've met with school officials about the incident, neither Samantha nor her father are satisfied. "The teacher told us it was a joke. That she jokes around with students. There's nothing funny about what she did."

The school district confirmed to CNBC that an incident occurred and it is conducting an investigation to determine whether disciplinary action is necessary.


Teacher ridicules student for wearing Romney t-shirt.
   963. Gaelan Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:51 PM (#4255436)
There are 16 people in the US with my name, though with an alternate spelling. With the way I spell my name there are 2 or fewer.
   964. Dan The Mediocre Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:54 PM (#4255443)
There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Kumquat Hitlerpenis.


Is that of the Danbury Hitlerpenis's?
   965. Group Captain Mandrake Posted: October 05, 2012 at 04:57 PM (#4255447)
There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Kumquat Hitlerpenis.


There are 7,862 people in the U.S. with the first name Dong.

There are 8,542 people in the U.S. with the last name Dong.

There are 1 or fewer people in the U.S. named Dong Dong.

Proof that Americans have more sensibilities than the Red Chinese
   966. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:15 PM (#4255469)
The school district confirmed to CNBC that an incident occurred and it is conducting an investigation to determine whether disciplinary action is necessary.


If the teacher did what the article alleges the teacher should be fired.
   967. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:22 PM (#4255482)

that's at least 3
the monsignor seems to have passed on though (he was OLD when when my Aunt met him years ago, but he was alive and kicking after 2000


still kicking as of 2010, over 70 years in the priesthood...
   968. Steve Treder Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:33 PM (#4255508)
If the teacher did what the article alleges the teacher should be fired.

So what you're saying is, she should have her kids taken away?
   969. Langer Monk Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:45 PM (#4255530)
A bunch of no-good basement dwellers, I'm sure.

Just another example of stonemason liberal bias.
   970. McCoy Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:47 PM (#4255537)
There are 3 people in America with the exact same name as me. I know of one via facebook and the other one is younger than me and has led the life that I always wanted to live. Baseball player in high school and got a college scholarship to play second base in Hawaii. I don't know what he is doing now but if he is continuing to live my fantasy life then he's currently living in Rome and dating Mila Kunis.
   971. Benji Gil Gamesh Rises Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:51 PM (#4255543)
then he's currently living in Rome and dating Mila Kunis.
There are 2 (or more) people in the U.S. with the same fantasy life as you.
   972. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: October 05, 2012 at 05:54 PM (#4255548)
There are 3,725,232 people in the U.S. with my first name.
There are 16,515 people in the U.S. with some variant of my Americanized last name.
There are probably about 25 million people with my Chinese last name.

There are 89 people in the U.S. with my name. That's oddly specific.
   973. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:03 PM (#4255559)
There are 2 people in the US with my name. The other one is a somewhat famous media artist who I was already aware of. Guess its just us two! Against the world! Aroooooo!
   974. rr Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:05 PM (#4255561)
There's a famous media artist named "Yankee Redneck?"
   975. OCF Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:14 PM (#4255577)
I don't trust that site to be very accurate. I tried some common Vietnamese games and got fewer than I expected in most cases. As for my own case: only about 500 with my last name, and "1 or fewer" with my first/last combination. Which sounds like they don't actually know about me.
   976. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:25 PM (#4255610)
There's a famous media artist named "Yankee Redneck?"


Yes. Also there is a drink named Irving.
   977. formerly dp Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:27 PM (#4255613)
If the teacher did what the article alleges the teacher should be fired.


I agree. You don't run a classroom like that.
   978. rr Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:52 PM (#4255661)
You don't run a classroom like that


Correct.
   979. Monty Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:53 PM (#4255665)
There are supposedly three people in the country with my exact name. I guess it's possible. I do know of a woman in Kuala Lumpur with my name. I don't know if "Monty" is a woman's name in Malaysia.
   980. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: October 05, 2012 at 06:57 PM (#4255677)
only 26 people in the US with my first and last name, but 21,745 with my last name. My first name is common, so this seems unusual
   981. I am going to be Frank Posted: October 05, 2012 at 08:40 PM (#4256056)
33 matching my name. 84,672 of my last name. When I Google my name, what comes up is a Nobel Prize winner, but its his fake "American" name (he's Chinese like me).
   982. McCoy Posted: October 05, 2012 at 10:22 PM (#4256200)
24 hours later and the data for Ohio absentee ballots has been updated. There has now been 266,000 absentee ballots by Democrats. Up 18,000 since last night. Republicans added 15,000 as well.

Early voting has begun and we should see the totals go up dramatically.
   983. Howie Menckel Posted: October 05, 2012 at 10:53 PM (#4256244)

What happens if there is a major revelation about either candidate in the coming weeks, or if a real-time event leaves either making an egregious error?

Can someone ask for their vote back?

I get absentee balloting for someone who will be out of town or who is a shut-in, but I find it funny that "undecided" voters get ripped as ignorant while people who vote weeks in advance get a pass. Different from someone who knows who they prefer 6 months ago, but is able to go to the polls with knowledge of the entire campaign on Election Day...

   984. tshipman Posted: October 05, 2012 at 11:01 PM (#4256259)
We already knew this administration is absolutely shameless, but today is further proof. How in the hell could a measly 114,000 jobs translate into a 0.3-point drop in the unemployment rate when 114,000 jobs doesn't even cover population growth? The only way these numbers work is if an additional ~750,000 people stopped looking for work since last month. It's nuts. Anyone who believes these numbers is an economic illiterate.


See, I think this rant is really instructive. Republicans really believe deeply in the incompetence of government and in manipulating it to further their purposes. The BLS is a huge success story of government. It's the single best resource for employment information in the world. Just try to use Eurostat for 10 minutes and you'll see how great the BLS is.

The Republican brand is tied up in making people believe that government is bad, so they naturally seem to gravitate towards explanations of corruption and dysfunction. However, the BLS is an important example of things that government does better than the private sector, and I think today is a good day to celebrate them.

The fact that Kehoskie is whinging about it just makes it sweeter.
   985. Spahn Insane Posted: October 05, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4256337)
So, according to this site, my name is as common as "Kumquat Hitlerpenis."

Your playing coy isn't fooling anyone, "Fernigal."
   986. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 05, 2012 at 11:46 PM (#4256356)
9 people with my name in the US.

In a related note:

A few years ago, I saw a birth announcement in my local paper for a boy who had my name in reverse (Lastname Firstname).
I figured he's my mortal enemy (like matter/anti-matter), so I am getting myself ready for some young whippersnapper to hunt me down and try to kill me in about 15-20 years.
I promised my wife I wouldn't go after him until he came after me first.
   987. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 05, 2012 at 11:48 PM (#4256361)
Teacher ridicules student for wearing Romney t-shirt.


Stupid ####### teacher.
   988. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:04 AM (#4256405)
What happens if there is a major revelation about either candidate in the coming weeks, or if a real-time event leaves either making an egregious error?

Can someone ask for their vote back?

Interesting point, and something that gets little attention. I'm all for multi-day voting if it helps people who work odd hours, etc., but it seems nuts that people are allowed to vote a month in advance. It seems like a system that's clearly rigged to benefit the party with higher voter registration.

***
The BLS is a huge success story of government. ...

However, the BLS is an important example of things that government does better than the private sector, and I think today is a good day to celebrate them.

If the BLS wants to avoid ridicule, it should stop releasing figures that a second-grader can recognize as inconsistent. Today's report is utter garbage.

Three weeks ago, the private-sector job market was so horrendous The Ben Bernanke used it to justify open-ended QE3. Now, we're supposed to believe Sept. 2012 was the best month for hiring in 30 years? Either Bernanke is incompetent or the BLS is incompetent. Anyone who takes today's report at face value is an economic illiterate.

As for the BLS being a "huge success story of government," if that's true, it's proof positive of just how much incompetence there is in government. BLS says a measly 114,000 jobs dropped the headline unemployment rate by 0.3 points? BLS issues a total jobs estimate of 800,000 (including part-time) with a margin of error of 400,000? Are these people serious?
   989. McCoy Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:07 AM (#4256412)
It's amazing how NOW the BLS is a bunch of BS even though people like Joe and Joe himself have used BLS's data to harangue Obama for months now if not years.
   990. Steve Treder Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:09 AM (#4256417)
It's amazing how NOW the BLS is a bunch of BS even though people like Joe and Joe himself have used BLS's data to harangue Obama for months now if not years.

No, it isn't amazing at all. It's routine.
   991. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:16 AM (#4256431)
It's amazing how NOW the BLS is a bunch of BS even though people like Joe and Joe himself have used BLS's data to harangue Obama for months now if not years.

Total nonsense. I've been bashing the BLS numbers for years. Today their garbage was just more rotten than usual.
   992. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:24 AM (#4256449)
It's amazing how NOW the BLS is a bunch of BS even though people like Joe and Joe himself have used BLS's data to harangue Obama for months now if not years.


Total nonsense. I've been bashing the BLS numbers for years.

Really? To whom? Your priest? You've only been posting here since December of 2010.
   993. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:26 AM (#4256452)
Really? To whom? Your priest? You've only been posting here since December of 2010.

Yes, I never had any opinions before I started commenting at BBTF two years ago. (Oops, sorry, one year and ten months ago. I know how much the pedants here live for making trivial corrections.)
   994. McCoy Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:32 AM (#4256461)
Total nonsense. I've been bashing the BLS numbers for years. Today their garbage was just more rotten than usual.

Is this like when you bashed TShipman for linking to the WSJ and then linked to the WSJ yourself?
   995. tshipman Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:35 AM (#4256465)
As for the BLS being a "huge success story of government," if that's true, it's proof positive of just how much incompetence there is in government. BLS says a measly 114,000 jobs dropped the headline unemployment rate by 0.3 points? BLS issues a total jobs estimate of 800,000 (including part-time) with a margin of error of 400,000? Are these people serious?


See, again, this is part of the larger agenda of trying to discredit government. The +- on the BLS jobs number is really high--it's 100k. The BLS says that the jobs created in September are between 214K and 4K with a 95% confidence. BLS is very explicit about this.

The unemployment % is calculated off of a separate, larger survey. Joe knows both of these facts, because they have been explained to him, in painstaking detail. He doesn't care, because he's invested in the idea that government is incompetent. The fact that the BLS does a better job at this than any private agency or any other government in the world doesn't fit the narrative.

Let's celebrate the BLS.

Also:
Three weeks ago, the private-sector job market was so horrendous The Ben Bernanke used it to justify open-ended QE3. Now, we're supposed to believe Sept. 2012 was the best month for hiring in 30 years? Either Bernanke is incompetent or the BLS is incompetent. Anyone who takes today's report at face value is an economic illiterate.


This is incoherent. 7.8% is a very bad, no good, awful unemployment number. The difference between 8.1% and 7.8% does not make the difference between a robust recovery that risks inflation and a stagnant recovery that is vulnerable to expectations of congressional incompetence. 7.8% is 148% above the levels consistent with the Fed's mandate.
   996. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:50 AM (#4256481)
The unemployment % is calculated off of a separate, larger survey. Joe knows both of these facts, because they have been explained to him, in painstaking detail. He doesn't care, because he's invested in the idea that government is incompetent.

No, I care precisely because I know those two facts. Today's BLS report is the equivalent of TBS saying that Josh Hamilton's OPS is either .930 ... or .690. Or maybe neither. It's a joke. They take information from two different sources and then throw it out there despite knowing that only one of the numbers could possibly be correct.

Let's celebrate the BLS.

This is the second or third time you've said this tonight. Is it a joke or are you some sort of government groupie? I can understand "celebrating" the U.S. Constitution or the Emancipation Proclamation, but who "celebrates" a government bureaucracy? That's just ... weird.

7.8% is a very bad, no good, awful unemployment number.

You might want to tell Obama, because on the campaign trail today, he sounded like the good times are here again — despite U6 being exactly where it was last month.
   997. McCoy Posted: October 06, 2012 at 12:51 AM (#4256483)
On one hand you bash the BLS and their data because it doesn't trash Obama but then you knock Obama because of the BLS and its data not being so rosy. Well, which is it?
   998. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:26 AM (#4256518)
You're claiming inconsistency where there is none. The BLS presents non-rosy info. in a rosy way. It's absurd that a person could look at a news headline and believe unemployment had actually dropped in months, like the last few, when far more people stopped looking for work than found it. If the BLS was truly non-partisan, it would have shifted to emphasizing U6 long, long ago.
   999. PreservedFish Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:36 AM (#4256523)
It's always a funny situation when one finds oneself rooting for bad news for one's country.
   1000. Joe Kehoskie Posted: October 06, 2012 at 01:41 AM (#4256526)
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