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Thursday, August 01, 2019

OT Soccer Thread - A New Season is Upon Baldrick

Everyone enjoy the break that was about 25 minutes long?  Anyway;

August 2 - Championship begins (Luton-Middlesbrough), Eridivise begins (Zwolle-Willem II)
August 3 - Scottish Premiership, League One, League Two begin
August 4 - Community Shield (Manchester City-Liverpool)
August 6 - Carabao Cup (Portsmouth-Birmingham City), Third round qualifying Champions League first legs
August 9 - EPL begins (Liverpool-Norwich City), Ligue Une begins (Monaco-Lyon)
August 16 - Bundesliga begins (Bayern-Hertha), La Liga begins (Athletic Bilbao-Barcelona)
August 29 - Champions League group stage draw
September 5 - All manner of World Cup and Euro qualifying international break begins

BTF FANTASY SOCCER COME ONE COME ALL (the link for the post now takes you to the signup page).

League name:  BTF Soccer

Code: my8hl1

Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: August 01, 2019 at 06:46 PM | 911 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   801. spivey Posted: September 17, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5880076)
filp. Looks like Inter have been pretty weak tonight.
   802. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 17, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5880091)
Does anyone pay for B/R Live? I just looked and it's $9.99/month! That's entirely too much for a couple of midweek Champions and Europa League matches. You also get Scottish Premiership and the Belgian League.

Watching Dortmund v. Barca on a Spanish channel is as expected. Barca all the possession and Dortmund playing on the counter.
   803. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 03:26 PM (#5880093)
Hell no. I paid for one single game last year because I happened to be home that day. I can't imagine it's been a successful product.
   804. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 03:27 PM (#5880096)
Napoli-Liverpool is pretty open so far, it's surprising there haven't been any goals yet.
   805. jmurph Posted: September 17, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5880102)
Speaking of scorebugs (on the previous page), you'd be forgiven for thinking Liverpool were playing a man down right now (they are not).
   806. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 17, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5880127)
Didn't really look like a penalty in the Liverpool game, but hard to overturn.
   807. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 17, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5880131)
NANDO CANNOT BE STOPPED IN CHAMPIONS LEAGUE!

2-0!
   808. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 17, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5880137)
Some crazy xG (538) results today (pens included).

Dortmund 0-0 Barca. xG had it as 3.9(!) - 0.4(!!)
Chelsea 0-1 Valencia. xG was 3.1(!) - 0.9
Ajax 3-0 Lille. xG was 1.6 - 2.0
Benfica 1-2 Leipzig. xG was 1.5-1.0 (ok not crazy, but probably harsh).
   809. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: September 17, 2019 at 07:16 PM (#5880155)
I thought the first half of Dortmund - Barca was roughly a push, maybe slight advantage to Barca. Dortmund had the better shooting chances, so I suspect have a significant xG advantage in that half too. But Barca felt in command of the game, and kept working the ball into dangerous areas, without quite being able to get the final ball right. But I thought overall, any other score than a draw would have been harsh going into half time.

In the second half though, uff. Barca were just so... pedestrian. Kinda felt like they were still in pre-season form, and not fully match fit, and ready to go a full 90. And so it was pretty much all Dortmund. Missed a penalty, that ter Stegen produced a very nice save on... though he was about 3 feet off his line, after getting about a 20 second lecture from the ref reminding him to stay on it. So no idea why they didn't call that back. Brandt hit an absolute screamer that hit the woodwork, which is probably still shaking now. Reus had a double chance from about 3 feet out (which I assume counts double in xG), but couldn't find a way past ter Stegen. Plus a few other high quality chances. No idea how they didn't score at least 2 there.
   810. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 17, 2019 at 08:27 PM (#5880174)
Thanks for the summary! Had to work, so I can barely pay attention to the one game I was actually watching (Liverpool).

which I assume counts double in xG
It shouldn't count double. Different systems have different methods, but the most common is to take the highest xG for each "attacking move" and discard the others. Another way to do it would be to calculate the probability of no goal in successive chances in one move (e.g., a 0.2 followed by a 0.5 in the same move would be a total 0.6 xG)
   811. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:26 AM (#5880311)
Does anyone pay for B/R Live? I just looked and it's $9.99/month! That's entirely too much for a couple of midweek Champions and Europa League matches. You also get Scottish Premiership and the Belgian League.


Is the money maker for such a thing going to be sports bars? I wouldn't think so for weekday games. Like you I can't picture the Champions League or Europa League really driving enough interest. I assume they aren't really paying much on production values for the non-TNT (or TBS whatever) games and that those are just using feeds from Europe and then either British announcers doing the game already or folks located here in the States.
   812. spivey Posted: September 18, 2019 at 08:43 AM (#5880323)
It's frustrating as a fan, but I do wonder if it's a business model that could work. At least in the knockouts, I'm probably going to buy all of the Tottenham games that aren't on, unless it's a second leg of a tie that's functionally over situation. I imagine even in the group stages, I'd have been tempted to buy the match yesterday if I was a big Dortmund/Barca fan. People recording during the day are generally only going to watch one match and they're likely fast forwarding through commercials at halftime. You could also argue that the sum of people watching Dortmund/Barca + Liverpool/Napoli isn't going to be very different than just one or the other if that's the only option. I watched Liverpool/Napoli even though my preference was Dortmund/Barca.


And speaking of the matches, Liverpool didn't look great. I don't have a big problem with the Robertson penalty. If you stab like that in the box, you got to get the ball. I think the Napoli player probably made a meal out of it, but I do think Robertson essentially tripped him by sticking his leg out like that last second. And Van Dijk (and Robertson again) were heavily to blame for the last goal, though some of it started with a really bad crossfield ball from Salah (iirc).
   813. The Marksist Posted: September 18, 2019 at 08:49 AM (#5880325)
I couldn't watch the end of the game, so I didn't see the penalty or late goal, but my overall impression was that it was basically even between Liverpool and Napoli. A few key players seemed a little off (notably Mane, IMO), choosing the wrong moment to pass, a poor touch or turn the wrong way, etc. On another day that ends 1-1 or Liverpool edges it. I don't think we learned anything new or that as a Liverpool fan I should be concerned about this result. Just happens sometimes (especially away in Europe for this Liverpool team).
   814. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 09:06 AM (#5880330)
I couldn't watch the end of the game, so I didn't see the penalty or late goal, but my overall impression was that it was basically even between Liverpool and Napoli. A few key players seemed a little off (notably Mane, IMO), choosing the wrong moment to pass, a poor touch or turn the wrong way, etc. On another day that ends 1-1 or Liverpool edges it. I don't think we learned anything new or that as a Liverpool fan I should be concerned about this result. Just happens sometimes (especially away in Europe for this Liverpool team).

Same all around (except the part about being a fan of Liverpool obviously!). I thought Napoli was probably the slightly better team in the first 60-70 minutes that I saw, but I've also seen that performance from Liverpool a dozen times and had it turn out like 3-0 in their favor because they're so deadly on the break.
   815. KronicFatigue Posted: September 18, 2019 at 12:14 PM (#5880387)
Is the money maker for such a thing going to be sports bars? I wouldn't think so for weekday games. Like you I can't picture the Champions League or Europa League really driving enough interest.


Anecdotally, a few years ago, if there were 2 matches on in the afternoon, I would be able to convince coworkers to go to the bar/restaurant for a late "lunch". 2 matches is just "different" than 1, and it created more of an event like atmosphere. double the chance of having supporters at the bar, less of a chance of the game being lopsided, etc etc.

I don't know the business aspects of it, and I know we're not entitled to see their numbers, but I find it FASCINATING that the network decides to air only one game. It just doesn't feel right. Yes, since I couldn't watch Chelsea I watched Liverpool/Napoli. And I enjoyed it. But if a network had a long term investment in the sport, you'd think they'd want to start creating fans. Even if networks don't care b/c they only hold the rights for a couple of years and only care about short term profits, UEFA has that interest and can make it a condition of the lease. Games are taking place just as kids are getting out of school. It's like the early days of MLB in that respect. Make it event-television, which only live-sports can.
   816. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 18, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5880393)
Spurs: Lloris; Sanchez, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Davis; Winks, Ndombele; Moura, Alli, Eriksen; Kane

Subs: Gazzaniga, Son, Lamela, Wanyama, Dier, Walker-Peters, Sissoko


Oh boy, a Davinson Sanchez start at RB (otherwise, it's a pretty damn solid rotated lineup).

Suuuuuuuuuure glad Spurs addressed the obvious RB problem during the transfer window ...
   817. I am going to be Frank Posted: September 18, 2019 at 12:42 PM (#5880397)
I don't think it works for sports bars either. Having Direct TV or some other cable service where they pay extra for the sports package is relatively easy. Hooking up computers to stream over a bunch of TVs seems like a giant pain. Plus, having a Spanish language station available seems to undercut it. BTW TNT's sister channel, TBS, is showing 'Friends' it will probably draw better ratings.
   818. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:32 PM (#5880420)
In what has to be a record, my U21 team just lost a penalty shoot-out to Athletico's U19 team in the U19 Champions League Knockout Round by a score of 39-40.

That's ... a lot of penalties.
   819. Topher Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:42 PM (#5880422)
I pay for B/R Live. I don't think it's a particularly great value for the price point and I'd only recommend it to others with caveats.

I don't have cable. So DVR doesn't do much for me.

I have a job where I'm frequently in my office, I have an office door that I can close which means I can listen to the audio, and I have three monitors. My third monitor essentially is used to stream sports while I'm working. I'll steam a game and take my cue from the announcer's cadence when it's time to glance over to the third monitor. It's my form of background music. It helps me get through the monotony of the day. Baseball works during the summer and the European cup games do a nice job of providing a streaming option during the workday the rest of the year.

I know how easy it is to find a free stream of the game but at the workplace I don't want to do anything that's going to raise the eye of IT. I got a decent gig where it's cool that I'm semi-watching sports throughout the day. Don't want to ruin that by downloading a virus and infecting the network.

B/R Live doesn't have any of the annoyances of not being able to watch a replay for 24 hours or inadvertently spoiling the score (hi Fox Sports Go). And there's a streaming app for my Roku. So if there is a match I want to watch in its entirety when I get home, I can do that despite not having cable.

So for me it works. But like I said, there are a bunch of caveats above for why it does.
   820. Topher Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:43 PM (#5880424)
Also, as I've gotten older I've become much more hesitant to question coaching decisions since I assuredly don't know more than they do. But .... I'm pretty sure Davinson Sanchez isn't a right back.
   821. spivey Posted: September 18, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5880426)
Yes, Sanchez looks awful out there. Please take him off the field. Tottenham has a 2-1 lead very much against the run of play. It's a wide open game now and it looks to be more goals out there for both teams.

Ndombele looks great.
   822. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5880435)
Players seldom know whether they are offside or not on a close play.
   823. spivey Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:30 PM (#5880447)
If Tottenham plays like this against Bayern they will take them behind the woodshed.

The amount of cheap giveaways from Davies, Winks, Eriksen, and Alli is really something to behold.
   824. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:47 PM (#5880456)
Not a good game from Tottenham, but Olympiacos is definitely the 3rd best team in the group, so an away win to them doesn't really hurt Spurs' chances of advancing.
   825. spivey Posted: September 18, 2019 at 02:54 PM (#5880461)
538 had the shot and non-shot xG has basically dead even between the two sides. So a draw is a fair result. A win would have probably put the group to bed, though, so it's a bummer it didn't happen. Of course, it's a bummer our starting fullbacks were Davies and Sanchez.

On another note, I'm trying to remember the last really good match that Alli had. Hell, I'm kind of asking myself the same question about Eriksen, but I guess he was really good late in the Villa match. But Eriksen's play the last season or so has been a step below what a team like Real want, I have to say. I gave him some slack last year, but I'd like to see him back to having matches where he's the best player on the field. He gave the ball away really cheaply in his own half, Man City QF style, that led to the Jan penalty.
   826. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5880475)
Man that's a beautiful finish from Di Maria.
   827. jmurph Posted: September 18, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5880493)
And again.
   828. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5880496)
That's the right call to reverse the Bale goal. Frankly should be a caution as well.
   829. spivey Posted: September 18, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5880526)
Atalanta not covering themselves in glory today.
   830. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 04:48 PM (#5880528)
Atalanta's odds of advancing will take a very big hit with this loss. They were all playing for second place, and they may need GD. Also Zagreb was supposed to be the worst team in the group. Not watching, but the stats aren't exactly showing that it is a fluke.

edit: also a killer loss for Leverkusen.
   831. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 05:22 PM (#5880535)
Ok so the 4-0 part is a fluke, but not the win by Zagreb.
   832. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 18, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5880536)
Only Germany managed two wins in the first round of CL group games.
   833. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 18, 2019 at 08:37 PM (#5880566)
Why in the #### did we play Sanchez at RB again after the disaster at Arsenal.

Like, is Poch trying to prove some sort of weird point Mourinho-style?
   834. spivey Posted: September 19, 2019 at 08:23 AM (#5880634)
Sanchez at RB was a disaster, but Tottenham also just didn't look very fit. Ndombele definitely doesn't seem that fit, and while granting he's had some injury issues, I think fitness is something that he's struggled with in his career. Jan seems really slow these days, too. He's not had a good start to the season. It's just sad to know that the 16-17 and teams before it where Tottenham would just fitness teams off the field aren't coming back.

I do have to give credit to Olympiacos. Their ability to control the ball in tight spaces and break quickly was higher than I'd expected. They've got some talented players.
   835. jmurph Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:33 PM (#5880777)
David Silva is apparently heading to Inter Miami at the end of the season.
   836. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 01:46 PM (#5880786)
Pretty lively first half in Frankfurt. Several good chances on both sides. Some shaky defense and poor finishing has it as just 0-1 Arsenal. If Arsenal win this, they have virtually assured advancement from the group.

In other news, Dudelange with the shock halftime lead away to APOEL. The basic stats have it as fairly even as well.
   837. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 02:28 PM (#5880808)
What is this Dudelange madness? Least fancied coming in to the group stages last year, they played true to form and finished with the worst performance in the group stage, with a single point and -13 GD. Did manage 3 goals scored though, ahead of a couple teams.

Least fancied again this year, but they've already matched last year's 3 goals scored, all in a single away game against a decent (on the sliding Europa scale) APOEL. Unfortunately they also gave up 3 goals in 4 minutes, so the game is currently tied at 3 apiece.
   838. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 02:46 PM (#5880815)
Frankfurt went down to 10, and the game opened way up. 2 more goals and game over. The 0-3 result is harsh on Frankfurt, but they were probably second best even before going down to 10, even if not by that much.

In more important news, Dudelange get their fourth and win away to APOEL. With Sevilla having the potential to dominate the group (big winners away to Qarabag today), it's not inconceivable that advancement would come down almost entirely to the other teams' performances against each other. If so, a win at APOEL goes a long way towards advancement. Go Dudelange!

edit: and Lazio with the shock loss to the least fancied team in their group: CFR Cluj. Rennes and Celtic aren't great, but they aren't pushovers either. Lazio has a lot of work to do now to advance.
   839. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 03:03 PM (#5880822)
Almost a completely rotated team starting for United. It's the right move. They have a weak group and are playing at home, so should be able to win regardless.
   840. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5880864)
Some surprises going on right now. Wolves just fell behind at home against Braga. United are dominating but can't get a goal at home against Astana. Espanyol is still drawing at home against Ferencvaros. And in a shocking scoreline, Gladbach is down 0-4 to Wolfsberger at home.

edit. Greenwood slaloms for a goal for United. It was coming.
   841. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 05:05 PM (#5880878)
The favorites struggled a bit this week. No country's teams ended up winning more than 3 games, which was done by Germany, Spain, England and... Austria (whose teams won all 3 of their games!)

Wolves with the home loss are lucky Besiktas lost on the road. They haven't played much offense this year, and it is limiting their upside. Explains the EPL draws and the loss today. Slovan is unlikely to advance from their group.

Espanyol could only manage a home draw against the weakest team in their group, but it looks like they may have gotten quite unlucky.

I know it took all game to get the goal, but United dominated the xG and had a lot of good chances. They have a very high chance of advancing from the group, and probably have the luxury of playing almost all backups for the rest of the group games if that's the way they want to go. Same with Arsenal. Those extra Europa games aren't nearly as much a burden if the backups get almost all the minutes.

Wolves, on the other hand, may be in a dogfight in their group.
   842. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 19, 2019 at 06:32 PM (#5880907)
Wolves current odds:

Top 4: 2%
Top 6: 9%
Relegated: 8%

Ouch.
   843. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 20, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5881229)
Crazy week in Europe, as all 7 of the top-ranked leagues dropped points in ELO. You have to go all the way down to Belgium/Netherlands/Austria to find leagues that actually did better than average. Those 3, other than Spain, were the only leagues with 3 or more teams still in Europe that played over .500 this week. (Spain was over .500 but still negative in ELO because they were generally supposed to be better than their competition.) Scotland was over .500 with a win and a draw.
   844. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 20, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5881278)
538, amusingly, seems to have no opinion on Wolves, except that they are not good enough to really challenge the top 6.

<1% to finish 1st-3rd
1% 4th
2% 5th
3% 6th
4% 7th
5% 8th
6% 9th
7% 10th-19th each
6% 20th.

The reason is that 538 thinks the difference between 9th best (Wolves) and worst (Sheffield) is about the same as the difference between Wolves and 8th best (Leicester).
   845. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 20, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5881287)
Looked like a penalty, but EPL VAR doesn't seem to overturn plays like that.
   846. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 20, 2019 at 11:35 PM (#5881451)
This is good to see, finally: Mexican soccer cracking down on GK chant

Mexico's football federation and Liga MX are set to crack down on the controversial goalkeeper chant that FIFA has ruled anti-gay, with clubs set to play behind closed doors if the chant continues and the FMF fearful of not making Qatar 2022 if it occurs regularly during World Cup qualifying.

The chant used by some fans at Mexico national team and Liga MX games -- as well as in other Latin American countries -- is aimed towards opposition goalkeepers as they are running up to take goal kicks. The Mexican federation has been fined on multiple occasions by FIFA because of it.

Liga MX president Enrique Bonilla said in a news conference on Friday that starting from Week 15 of the current 2019 Apertura season, the referee will be able to temporarily stop games if the chant is heard, take players back to the locker room for five to 10 minutes if it continues and force clubs to play their next home game behind closed doors if it doesn't stop.


   847. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 21, 2019 at 07:13 AM (#5881464)
Spurs:
Tottenham Hotspur (4-1-4-2) Gazzaniga; Aurier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose; Winks; Sissoko, Ndombele; Lamela; Kane, Son.
Substitutes: Whiteman, Davies, Wanyama, Dier, Eriksen, Moura, Skipp.


Which is weird, since the way the lineup is segregated by semicolons, it would appear to be the dreaded 4-1-2-1-2 Diamond again.

Good: 2 actual fullbacks, even if Derp is one of them. Erik "You call that a Yellow? Hold my beer" Lamela is back starting.
Bad: The diamond. Sissoko. No Alli, even on the bench, and supposedly he wasn't even told why by Poch, just to report for training.
   848. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 21, 2019 at 09:18 AM (#5881471)
I refuse to believe that the tools are precise enough to call that offside.
   849. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 21, 2019 at 09:19 AM (#5881472)
Let the panic begin.
   850. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 21, 2019 at 10:05 AM (#5881478)
Last away league win for Spurs?

January.
   851. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 21, 2019 at 10:31 AM (#5881482)
City haven't scored for over 10 minutes ... PEP OUT!
   852. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 21, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5881485)
I refuse to believe that the tools are precise enough to call that offside.


They aren’t.

It’s that’s simple. I’m not a Spurs fan though I do like them but that frankly sucked a lot of the enjoyment out of a really fun game. There are a couple of problems;

1. The ball doesn’t just hit a player’s foot, it stays on the foot for a millisecond which seems unimportant but professional football players can cover more than enough ground to make up that difference.

2. As noted in the post game show, the line is being drawn by someone in the VAR center. Martino said it, this isn’t “Hawkeye” in tennis, this is a rough estimate.

Replay in every sport is just such a ####### travesty. I get the “we need to fix the blatant stuff” issue but it has been used vastly differently. It saps the joy out of the game. You simply can’t watch a sporting event and enjoy what just happened.

Hell, as I type this Sheffield United have scored but no one is really celebrating yet because we are waiting for the VAR to tell us if what we saw happen actually happened.
   853. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 21, 2019 at 05:24 PM (#5881663)
Shffield United is doing quite well. Though even if the result today was a bit of a fluke, it evens out some of the results from earlier games, where Sheffield could easily have had more points. Their 8 EPL points are well earned.

But did you know promoted Granada sits on top of the La Liga standings (at least for tonight) after taking down Barca?
   854. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 21, 2019 at 08:00 PM (#5881751)
As irritated as I am at that VAR decision, Spurs blew a lead on the road. Again. The bad VAR call didn't make them ship 2 goals in the last 21 minutes.
   855. It's regretful that PASTE was able to get out Posted: September 21, 2019 at 08:10 PM (#5881754)
Like, is Poch trying to prove some sort of weird point Mourinho-style?


Hate to say it but I think it's entirely possible Poch is pretty much checked out from Tottenham at this point.
   856. frannyzoo Posted: September 21, 2019 at 08:54 PM (#5881763)
I would like to vote #852 as greatest post ever. Seriously. Of course, it's now up for VAR to decide.
   857. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:44 AM (#5881822)
I don't think Poch is checked out, but I do think he's gotten quite frustrated with the Daniel Levy Experience (* & **) and I think this is going to be his last season at Spurs.

* I mean, how could hearing something like this "“We could easily have spent more money on players. Who knows if that would have brought us more success or not?" from Levy not be frustrating? Yes, Spurs made the CL Finals, but that took a bloody miracle in Amsterdam and a) Spurs only secured the last CL spot by 1 point and b) the team looked gassed most of the 2nd half. A couple of signings, even for depth could really have helped and set Spurs up in a better place for this season.

** More importantly, I think a number of players, important players at that, are definitely getting tired of the Daniel Levy Experience and there are going to be a number of very damaging exits this upcoming summer. And all bets are off if Spurs fail to stay in the Top 4.
   858. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5881833)
Oh Ole.
   859. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 22, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5881835)
I don't think the timing is going to work out, but MoPo at United might be a very good and successful fit. Much better for Poch than either PSG or Real, I think.
   860. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 10:56 AM (#5881837)
Oh my goodness. The last 90 seconds of Palace-Wolves is nuts. Palace get Schlupp in 1 on 1 with the keeper and can’t finish. Wolves (who by the way are at 10 men) give the ball away but Palace can’t keep control, they just needed to kick it down the pitch and time probably runs out. Instead Wolves come back, get one more cross in and the Palace defender seems to fall down and Wolves equalize with about 5 seconds of time left. All they had time for was the kickoff.
   861. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 11:59 AM (#5881850)
Yay, another VAR goal disallowed.
   862. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 22, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5881852)
Seriously.
   863. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 12:47 PM (#5881860)
Is there any reason at this point for linsemen to call offsides? There are three possibilities I think;

1 they get it right. Great.

2 they rule someone who is offside as if he is on. No biggie, VAR fixes that.

3 they rule someone onside as off. This is bad,

The third one just happened in the Liverpool game. Nothing came of it thank so to a Kepa save but potentially the missed call would take away angoal. Like there isn’t enough scoring that we can afford to have goals ruled out incorrectly. At this point linesmen should not be calling offsides, just let it play on and if we need a VAR check so be it.

There are probably plenty of situations where the call should be made. Maybe the rule should be the linsemen raise their flag or otherwise notify the ref but the ref shouldn’t blow the play dead. Something to avoid injury on a “dead” play. But at this point it’s not like a linsemen should make any kind of close call.
   864. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 22, 2019 at 01:01 PM (#5881863)
Liverpool decided to faff about and run the clock down and have let Chelsea back into the match.

Hell of a goal from Kante ... where did that come from?
   865. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 22, 2019 at 04:19 PM (#5881907)
538 ranking differential since pre-season (IOW-who 538 thinks has played well and who has not, based on their competition)

1. Brighton +4.0 (538 thought they'd be terrible)
2. Sheffield United +3.2 (the most pleasant surprise so far)
3. Man. United +2.2 (part of that is penalties, but even without them they'd be a slight positive)
3. Leicester +2.2
5. Burnley +2.0
6. Man. City +1.3
7. Southampton +1.1
8. Norwich +1.0
9. West Ham +0.2
10. Villa 0
11. Liverpool -0.5
12. Bournemouth -1.0 (a good record, but poor by xG)
12. Palace -1.0
14. Arsenal -1.1
15. Tottenham -1.4
16. Chelsea -1.8 (to be fair to Chelsea, 538 had them as too high preseason, so some regression was expected)
17. Watford -2.0
18. Wolves -2.1
19. Everton -2.2 (same as for Chelsea. 538 was probably too high on Everton)
20. Newcastle -2.4
   866. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 22, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5881955)
The top 6 rarely lose the non-shot xG (538) battle to anyone outside the top 6. Man. City only came up short 4 times last year against anyone (Liverpool twice, Chelsea, and Arsenal, and two of those were virtual draws).

Liverpool was arguably even more consistent last year, only losing the non-shot xG twice, away to Arsenal and Leicester, with the Leicester game being a virtual draw. They had a few other virtual draws (City, Wolves, Spurs).

Against non-top 6, Chelsea only came up short once, away to Watford, and not by much.

Arsenal was not quite as consistent. 5 or 6 times they were on the short end against non-top 6, including late in the year shellackings on the road to Leicester and Everton.

Manchester United, under Mourinho, came up on the short end 9 times in 17 games, including 5 out of 12 times against non-top 6. OGS did significantly better here, with another 4 against non-top 6 in the last 16 matchups, though there were a couple stinkers in there.

Spurs didn't do well by this measure, also coming up short 9 times in 28 games against non-top 6, though to be fair, only 3 or 4 of those were by any significant amount.

This year so far in non-shot xG:
City have dominated every game.
Liverpool have won every matchup, except a draw with Southampton.
United only came up short once--just pipped on the road to Leicester.
Chelsea only came up short to Liverpool and United (barely).
Tottenham got run all over by City and Arsenal (and came out with 2 draws!) and also got beaten by Leicester.
Arsenal got beaten badly by Liverpool and Watford (the only time so far this year a top 6 got severely beaten in this measure against non-top 6).
   867. KronicFatigue Posted: September 22, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5881961)
The third one just happened in the Liverpool game. Nothing came of it thank so to a Kepa save but potentially the missed call would take away angoal. Like there isn’t enough scoring that we can afford to have goals ruled out incorrectly. At this point linesmen should not be calling offsides, just let it play on and if we need a VAR check so be it.


I think you need them there for the more drawn out plays. player X is onside (but looks off) but doesn't take a quick shot. He dribbles into the corner, waiting for teammates. Then he tries a cross, but it's cleared. Teammate of X recovers and shoots from outside the box.

You can't have VAR going back that far. So better to call him offside in real time (and be wrong) than a situation where you're going back several minutes of game time to determine something.
   868. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 22, 2019 at 05:55 PM (#5881962)
Like there isn’t enough scoring that we can afford to have goals ruled out incorrectly.


What's the ideal amount of scoring? There are two great things about soccer--no breaks and low scoring. The low scoring means games are often tense to the very end, even between teams that are not very evenly matched.

I'm not sure what the ideal number of total goals is--maybe higher than 2.75 per game or whatever it is now in the EPL. I do think if there were an average of say 5 goals per game (combined) I would find soccer much less compelling.

edit: 2.82 last year in the EPL, highest since 1966. It's already been on the rise for the past decade.

edit2: the NHL has usually averaged almost 6 goals per game in recent years. That's definitely too high for my tastes.
   869. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 06:06 PM (#5881965)
I’d say 3 goals per game is about right, I’m a bit surprised the EPL was as high as 2.82. I’m not looking for 5 goals a game, I agree with you the low goal totals do make for tension and drama. It wasn’t a criticism, just a note that it’s a low scoring sport and people enjoy goals so having goals ruled out incorrectly kind of sucks.
   870. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 22, 2019 at 06:37 PM (#5881974)
The Bundesliga has traditionally been higher than the other biggest leagues, but last year it was especially high.

This season’s tally of 3.18 is even more impressive, meaning that the Bundesliga comfortably beat the Premier League (2.82), Serie A (2.68), La Liga (2.59) and Ligue 1 (2.56) in the ranking of Europe’s top-five leagues.

https://www.bundesliga.com/en/bundesliga/news/germany-tops-european-scoring-charts-premier-league-liga-4838

For some reason La Liga was very low scoring last year. Probably mostly an aberration? For the previous 11 years they averaged over 2.75.
https://laligaexpert.com/2019/03/27/average-goals-per-game-2007-to-2019/

EPL was very similar, probably right around 2.75 if you go back to 2009/2010.
https://www.worldfootball.net/stats/eng-premier-league/1/
   871. spivey Posted: September 22, 2019 at 07:50 PM (#5881994)
I didn't get to watch the Leicester game, but Tottenham either drew or slightly won the xG battle, and that's not counting a goal that was probably high xG that was probably incorrectly called back imo for all of the reasons Jose laid out. Of course, down that rabbit hole is, was Sterling's offside in the CL quarters large enough to call back? Maybe/probably, but it's kind of on the edge. There aren't enough cameras on the field to my knowledge to really do this stuff with the level of precision they're pretending to do it with. It's kind of like the K zone that broadcasts put up.

I think such a result is probably a net solid one for Tottenham, though the result's lacking.

I do think that Poch may be running his time to an end here. The team isn't as young and hungry and fit as they were in their heyday. In 15-16, Tottenham led the league in goals scored and fewest goals allowed. They really needed to get silverware that year. Not all of this is on Poch, but managers do have a shelf life and I think Pep realizes it, and bounces a year too early vs. a year too late.

I do think that Tottenham doesn't have much of an offensive gameplan, and they need that now more. They've become more of a possession based team, and some of that is likely just due to teams conceding it. Even in their heyday, I felt like they struggled when teams bus parked, but they could usually get some goals on scrambles and the like because of the pressing, fitness, and the nose for goal that Kane and Alli had. Also, the back line was pretty damn great for a couple of years there, and there were great shields. Tottenham just don't keep clean sheets these days. I'm struggling to see how Tottenham becomes a real challenge for Liverpool for best non-City team in England with Poch at the helm. As great as Poch has been, I don't think his tactics and putting players in a position to succeed is near the same level as Klopp.

The formations are becoming pretty tired and predictable. Not that tactics can completely cover for players, but the way we line up in the diamond I think just exposes us to get overrun in midfield too easily against many teams. It's way too easy to play through the middle of our team.
   872. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 22, 2019 at 08:14 PM (#5881996)


Tottenham either drew or slightly won the xG battle,


Exactly!
Caley xG: 1.0-1.4
538 xG: 1.3-1.5
understat xG: 1.21-1.23

Nevertheless, 538 had the game as a slight negative for Tottenham, because they were outscored and lost the non-shot xG (each of which count 1/3 along with shot xG). Considering Tottenham was on the road and Leicester is quite good, I'd call it a neutral event. Watching the game I didn't think the teams were significantly apart on the day.
   873. Richard Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:20 PM (#5882012)
Sheffield United is doing quite well. Though even if the result today was a bit of a fluke, it evens out some of the results from earlier games, where Sheffield could easily have had more points. Their 8 EPL points are well earned.


1 shot on target, 2 goals!

Yes, I think we are where we deserve to be in terms of points, after a tough loss against Southampton.

Everton game was strange. they had 70% possession, but Sigurdsson and Richarlison were misfiring, and United spent the game forcing them wide and heading away the resultant crosses (30 in all) without much difficulty. Moise Kean looked hopeless. United were poor going forward but took their one chance when it came.

Everton should be doing better than that with the players they have. Mind you, to have spent all that money and not signed one good forward is a poor effort.

Next 3 league games are Liverpool home - Watford away - Arsenal home. I want something at Watford and something from one of the other 2 games. The home games will be hard, not least because of Arsenal's seemingly inexhaustible good fortune (and 2 good forwards), but it sure is fun at the moment.
   874. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 22, 2019 at 09:45 PM (#5882019)
Everton game was strange. they had 70% possession, but Sigurdsson and Richarlison were misfiring, and United spent the game forcing them wide and heading away the resultant crosses (30 in all) without much difficulty. Moise Kean looked hopeless. United were poor going forward but took their one chance when it came.

Everton should be doing better than that with the players they have. Mind you, to have spent all that money and not signed one good forward is a poor effort.


This is how Everton have rolled since Lukaku left. The inability to finish is an ongoing problem. I suspect it is an issue for a team in their financial atmosphere. They can afford some good players all over the pitch and as you note they have them. However the strikers that would be the equivalent of say a Sigurdsson is going to cost a lot more money and go to the bigger clubs. They wind up relying on players that are not certainties.

Heck, Lukaku was a loan player his first year and they bought him after that. He had a down year in 2015/16 then blossomed the next two seasons and wound up on for greener financial pastures.

As you say the inability to develop a striker of any sort is a problem. It’s why I loved the Kean acquisition so much. Hopefully they can develop him and have him become the striker they need, at least for a couple of years before he goes back to Juve or somewhere else.

Marco Silva is coming under some fire and I think that is fair. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know WHAT he should be doing but watching Everton can be a bit frustrating. I feel like they should be at the top of that next tier more consistently. Truthfully I can’t complain too much about the 7th/8th/8th they’ve finishe dthe last three seasons but I’d love a Cup run, even if it’s just the League Cup. They haven’t done that the last few seasons.

My other complaint is that they don’t play as open as I’d like. Your United are a fun team to watch, innovative and attacking. Everton for several years now have been neither. I’d like to see them play a bit more swashbuckling, go out and have an attitude. Hell, do the Stoke City thing of being the team that everyone hates because you blow everyone up. Just have an identity which they haven’t for a few years. Make Goodson a place people don’t want to go.
   875. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 23, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5882256)
   876. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 23, 2019 at 07:19 PM (#5882367)
There seem to be two different conversations around Manchester United that are constantly conflated.

The first is that they are one of the richest teams in the world and should be one of the very best teams year in and year out. They clearly have not been, and it's fair to blame management, ownership, even players if you like. No doubt, by this measure, they have been a disappointment for the last several years.

The second is an assessment of how good they actually are right now. An honest appraisal of this, based on everything we know of their play over the last couple years, shows them to be a team scrapping for a CL spot. That's what they were at the end of last season, that's what they were this summer, and that's how they've played so far this year.

Is OGS now doing a worse job as a coach than he was doing before? Not by any reasonable measure. Is he a "good enough" coach for one of the richest teams in the world? No, but he wasn't when he was hired either, and that hasn't changed.

Was Manchester United "dire" against West Ham? Again, not by any reasonable measure. They certainly weren't great, but they were on the road to a team picked to finish 10th in the league, and statistically outplayed them (not even including probably the second best chance of the game, where Rashford inexplicably stepped over the ball.) The average xG result was 1.25 - 0.55 in favor of United. (If you really want dire, you have Arsenal's games against both Watford and Liverpool.) That 1.25-0.55 xG score is probably better than what the odds for United in the game, who were given about a 45% change to win even without Pogba (against 25% or so to lose). 538 had it as a neutral performance overall, despite being outscored by 2 goals (which counts 1/3 towards their ranking).

One of the guys on ESPN wrote that West Ham was favored to win the game going in, which was factually wrong, by a lot. Not being as good as their revenue indicates they should be does not mean they aren't favored to beat West Ham, and the fact that they ended up losing doesn't mean they were the inferior team on the day. Mainstream soccer analysis is so reactionary.
   877. Mr Dashwood Posted: September 23, 2019 at 09:22 PM (#5882391)
Irregular viewings made long after the matches were played and a busy schedule have hampered my writing up match reports. Let me play some catch-up.

AFC Bournemouth 3-1 Everton

After the international break Eddie Howe made quite a few changes for the match against Everton. He ran out a new fullback pair with the 2018 summer signing Diego Rico and this summer’s transfer from Luton Town ‘Young’ Jack Stacey (he is actually 23, so not all that young). The Wee Man was benched for Solanke, and King was moved out to the wing to take up the Wee Man’s normal spot. Finally, Colombia’s Jefferson Lerma was given a rest and we saw the return of Lewis Cook to midfield, who had been badly injured a long time ago.

Such wholesale changes can lead to problems as players aren’t used to one another, and this was the case at the start of the match against Everton. Bournemouth could not develop a rhythm and the pace of Everton’s forwards, especially Richarlison, unsettled the home side, as Rico had trouble keeping up. However, the probes down the left proved unprofitable and Everton switched play to the right side to attack Stacey. Bournemouth withstood a bit of pressure and then began to play with some assurance through the midfield, with Lewis Cook being particularly prominent.

The second quarter of the match was opened by a corner to Bournemouth. Rico, whose dead-ball skills are well-known to fans of the Cherries, sent a beautiful inswinger that was nodded across goal by Solanke. Though King couldn’t finish, the ball rebounded off his body and Callum Wilson put it past Pickford. There was some shout for handball against King, but eventually an angle proved such cries were in error. There might have been a better case for Wilson being offside, but that was before the ball had even got to King.

Everton responded some twenty minutes later when Richarlison used his pace to fly past Rico, made his way towards the left corner before sending a well-weighted pass to Calvert-Lewin running into the six-yard box. The half ended as it began, with the teams level.

The second half began with sustained pressure by Everton on Stacey. Their strategy was to time runs to cause Stacey to retreat into the box, leaving Digne plenty of room and time for a cross. At the hour, Harry Wilson came off and the Wee Man came on, playing with a bustling energy that had been less visible in earlier matches. The ‘Trick Stacey’ trick was played again, Stacey was out of position but the Wee Man managed to block the shot and remonstrated with Stacey afterwards. That seemed to sort matters out.

The Wee Man, as well as Rico, is a skilled taker of the dead ball, and the Cherries’ second goal was an example of his ability. He simply aimed it off a free kick outside the area into the far corner. Accuracy and movement is all one needs for some Beckhamesque quality.

Bournemouth’s third goal came when Rico pounced on a loose ball, passed to Callum Wilson, who raced forward until he saw Pickford was off his line. Wilson lobbed the ball over Pickford, as Vardy had done to Ramsdale in the match before the international break.

The match finished with some intense Everton pressure, but initially Everton looked too unco-ordinated, and then when they finally got their composure by around the 88th minute, they did not have enough time. Bournemouth simply hoofed the ball back up the pitch whenever they could. The best Everton chance came, however, during the unco-ordinated phase when Iwobi’s shot was parried by Ramsdale, and Richarlison’s rebound shot went wide of the net.
   878. Richard Posted: September 23, 2019 at 10:07 PM (#5882411)
This is how Everton have rolled since Lukaku left. The inability to finish is an ongoing problem. I suspect it is an issue for a team in their financial atmosphere. They can afford some good players all over the pitch and as you note they have them. However the strikers that would be the equivalent of say a Sigurdsson is going to cost a lot more money and go to the bigger clubs. They wind up relying on players that are not certainties.

Heck, Lukaku was a loan player his first year and they bought him after that. He had a down year in 2015/16 then blossomed the next two seasons and wound up on for greener financial pastures.

As you say the inability to develop a striker of any sort is a problem. It’s why I loved the Kean acquisition so much. Hopefully they can develop him and have him become the striker they need, at least for a couple of years before he goes back to Juve or somewhere else.

Marco Silva is coming under some fire and I think that is fair. I’m not knowledgeable enough to know WHAT he should be doing but watching Everton can be a bit frustrating. I feel like they should be at the top of that next tier more consistently. Truthfully I can’t complain too much about the 7th/8th/8th they’ve finished the last three seasons but I’d love a Cup run, even if it’s just the League Cup. They haven’t done that the last few seasons.

My other complaint is that they don’t play as open as I’d like. Your United are a fun team to watch, innovative and attacking. Everton for several years now have been neither. I’d like to see them play a bit more swashbuckling, go out and have an attitude. Hell, do the Stoke City thing of being the team that everyone hates because you blow everyone up. Just have an identity which they haven’t for a few years. Make Goodson a place people don’t want to go.


I do wonder whether one thing that Everton should try is to play 2 men up front. Many Sheffield United fans have been bemused by the willingness of Everton managers to start Calvert-Lewin (who was signed from us) up top on his own. He has his uses but he's never going to be a heavy scorer leading the line on his own. Kean doesn't look much better (though that's the only time I've seen him). I wonder if you go with 2 men they can give each other more help and defenders more to think about.

And I know what you mean about swashbuckling. A team with Richarlison and Sigurdsson and Bernard shouldn't be relying on Seamus Coleman as the main offensive outlet. Do more. Try more. The lack of movement around the United penalty area was something pointed out by pundits after the game and was a big problem.
   879. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 24, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5882694)
Spurs about to need penalties against Colchester. 4 minutes to go after 90 scoreless.

[edit] And penalties it is!

[edit2] And of course Eriksen is saved on the 1st, while Colchester knocks their's in

[edit3] AND MOURA HITS THE CROSSBAR!!!

[edit4] AND OUT GO SPURS, OUT GO SPURS!!!
   880. jmurph Posted: September 24, 2019 at 04:45 PM (#5882696)
Honestly losing early in the league cup is the right decision. Poch in.
   881. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 24, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5882697)
Normally, I don't give many shits about the Caribou Cup, but, at the very least, advancement in the Cup meant playing time for youth and reserves (you might have noticed, a couple players really seemed like they needed game minutes under their belt on Saturday), which they are now not going to get.

A bad, bad loss and not what Spurs needed right now.
   882. spivey Posted: September 25, 2019 at 08:57 AM (#5882855)
I think Spurs have too much talent to just completely implode, at least when Ndombele and Lo Celso are fit.

But there need to be some questions asked of who is going to really work for the team. It's sad to see Eriksen playing like this, but it's also like, if you don't pick it up, nobody better than Spurs is going to come for you.

Spurs haven't had an offensive identity for a while, and really the incredible goal scoring of Son and Kane have papered over that. But with Lo Celso out, Eriksen and Dele sucking, there is nobody that really knows how to break down a team.

Also, Kane is still playing well in terms of scoring, but his movement has been #### most of the year. A world class striker should be making life hell for the opposing CBs. He just stands around waiting for something to happen.

Life at (or near, in Tottenham's case) the top is fickle, and Poch has a good amount of additional rope, but if they're sucking in 2 months I think he could be gone. And he has to take some blame. I mean the players aren't playing hard, fast, or incisive (with the exception of one or two guys like Son). So some of that's on the players, but some of the players need to be dropped, and can we use a ####### formation that doesn't have us getting overrun in midfield by everyone.
   883. aberg Posted: September 25, 2019 at 06:13 PM (#5883075)
Does anyone have a theory or data on why Dele has regressed so badly? He looked like he was going to be one of the best players in the world, and now he's not even one of the best English attacking MFs.
   884. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 25, 2019 at 08:56 PM (#5883116)
It seems like he’s had a fair number of little niggling injuries the last couple of seasons. Is he just a guy who hasn’t been 100% healthy for a long time now?
   885. The Marksist Posted: September 26, 2019 at 09:30 AM (#5883237)
I'm not a Spurs fan so I don't follow the players all that closely, but I think burnout is reasonable null hypothesis for why they're struggling. They've played a high-intensity style for many years and usually have a pretty small squad. It's easy to imagine all that has caught up with them and basically nobody is at 100% anymore.
   886. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 28, 2019 at 09:02 AM (#5883951)
Sheffield United have done themselves very proud here. It’s a shame that Liverpool got a goal through such a bad error. Sheffield have been one of the bright spots in the league so far. They have amazing supporters and play aggressively. They are a fun team.
   887. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 28, 2019 at 10:38 AM (#5883973)
Ball goes out of play. Officials miss it. Then ref gives Aurier a soft yellow to send him off. Standard for Spurs, really.
   888. The Rare Albino Shrieking Goat of Guatemala. Posted: September 28, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5883975)
Ah, good old Derps.

Now, evidently, Lloris completely gifts Saints a goal.

So glad this match isn't on TV ...
   889. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 28, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5883976)
And now a horrendous goalkeeping error from Lloris.
   890. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: September 28, 2019 at 10:41 AM (#5883977)
Like what the #### are you doing Hugo.
   891. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5884001)
Because they gave the goal to Calvert-Lewin, Everton gets another .5 xG (or something). Can't miss from the one inch line with the ball going in anyway.
   892. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2019 at 01:11 PM (#5884004)
City looks dangerous as ever on attack, but this has not been up to their standards on the defensive end. Everton has had their moments.
   893. spivey Posted: September 28, 2019 at 01:15 PM (#5884006)
Agree with 892 though I think they are slightly better with Bernardo and Aguero, but their defense looks leaky. Liverpool is printing results in the league but weren’t dominant today or last week, and were out xG’ed by Napoli and MK Dons. I think this year will have a more normal points total win the league.
   894. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2019 at 02:41 PM (#5884032)
538 xG had it as 2.3 - 3.0. That 2.3 is probably a tad inflated by the goal, but still, City hardly ever gives up that much xG.

And yet, it's a bit of a trend this year for them. 1.3 to West Ham, 1.5 to Nowrich, 2.0 to Bournemouth. That's 4 times in 7 games already over 1.0, something that only happened to them 9 times last year total in the league. Also, the highest they gave up last year was 2.1.
   895. Jose is an Absurd Time Cube Posted: September 28, 2019 at 02:44 PM (#5884034)
City’s defense is fairly weak. With Laporte and Stones both out they are down to one legit center back. Now they have guys who can do it and they have so much possession and score so much they can get away with it but I think that in the shortish term they are going to be giving up quality chances in excess of what you would expect because of that.

Their schedule between now and January is;

EPL: Wolves, @Palace, Villa, Southampton, @Liverpool, Chelsea, @Newcastle, @Burnley, ManU, @Arsenal, Leicester City, @Wolves, Sheffield United
Carabao: Southampton (this game and the EPL game against Southampton are back to back).
UCL: Dynamo Zagreb, Atalanta, @Atalanta, Shakhtar Donetsk, @Dynamo Zagreb

I think it’s a bit fortuitous that the Liverpool fixture is the one at Anfield. The game in Manchester is in April by which time things will have shaken out and/or a January transfer will have bedded in. From City’s perspective you’d hate to lose at home to Liverpool because you were missing key parts at the back.
   896. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 28, 2019 at 03:41 PM (#5884048)
xG didn't think the Sheffield game was that close. Also, the highest xG chance for Sheffield was Clarke's late, and apparently (people are saying) would have been reviewed and called back with VAR had it gone it.

Liverpool has been a little weaker this year, despite their record.
   897. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2019 at 09:57 PM (#5884491)
Manchester United's 27 games under OGS: 48 points
Manchester United's last 27 games under Mourinho: 48 points

xGD (understat) under OGS: +20.8 (xPoints 51.4) GD prorates to about a 3rd place finish. xPoints to 3rd or 4th.
xGD under Mourinho in last 27: +2.6 (xPoints 38.4) GD prorates to about a 7th-8th place finish. xPoints 7th-9th.

The difference has been on both the offensive and defensive ends, though slightly more on offense. OGS has had a slightly easier schedule over that span.
   898. Mefisto Posted: September 29, 2019 at 10:01 PM (#5884492)
United aren't likely to improve their fortunes tomorrow. They'll be missing Shaw, Pogba, Martial and Rashford.
   899. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 29, 2019 at 10:20 PM (#5884497)
Yep, though last I heard Pogba was still a possibility. That said, the latest odds still have United as the favorite, by a small margin (39% United, 33% Arsenal, 28% draw).

Take away penalties from the above, and OGS drops to xGD of about 14.5 (probably enough to project around 5th), Mourinho to about 1.0 (8th-9th). That's a tad unfair though, since top of the table teams usually are positive on penalty differential.
   900. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: September 30, 2019 at 12:18 PM (#5884618)
flop
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