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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

OT Soccer Thread, v.2019

Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!

Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:08 PM | 2068 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   1201. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 20, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5833732)
Flop
   1202. frannyzoo Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5833737)
In Porto tonight, and, what the Hell, will see the FC play what should be another slam dunk in the Primeira against Santa Clara (go Azores!) after being toyed with like a bored cat by 'Pool at home just the other day. Not to mention that Benfica swept this year and League looks highly unlikely. But tickets were only 15 Euros, and I just happened to bring a blue shirt that somewhat matches.
   1203. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 20, 2019 at 01:54 PM (#5833757)
I was wrong about 538 not taking into account ho important a game is to each team before calculating odds of the outcome in the game. They very explicitly do this, which is a nice addition.

However, they use the same measure of "importance" for two completely different things, which is far from ideal. For example, they think the Liverpool/Cardiff game and the Manchester Derby are not of maximum importance to Cardiff and United, respectively, because even with a win in those games they will still each be behind in their races. Similarly, they didn't think Cardiff was going to play at maximum intensity in the game against Brighton, just because at that point they only had an 8% chance to survive relegation. That's obviously not right.

Similarly, this United game tomorrow is only considered to be of 64% maximum importance to them, never mind that anything but a win means they very likely won't make the CL next year, and their season will be effectively over. If they don't take tomorrow's game with maximum seriousness, OGS should be fired immediately. The problem for 538 is that they are using some measure of leverage a game has in a team reaching its goals to determine importance to that team. The leverage they are actually measuring is more like how important a neutral fan would find the game to be. It's good for deciding which games such a fan might want to watch, but not so good for determining how hard each team is likely to be playing.
   1204. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 20, 2019 at 03:31 PM (#5833793)
Kinda sad about Watford now very likely being the rep from the EPL in Europe aside from the top 6. I'm not convinced they are very good. I'd have preferred to see Wolves, Everton or Leicester. Palace I'm less convinced of, despite 538 liking them.

It's been since the 2012-2013 year since the EPL got 3 teams through the group stages, when Newcastle managed to join the bigger boys.
   1205. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 20, 2019 at 06:05 PM (#5833842)
What a sack of bastards:

There are a couple of signposts to help navigate the barmy situation at Coventry City, to understand how a club can be about to make itself homeless again, and face a vote this Thursday to be actually expelled from the EFL, exactly 100 years since it first joined the Football League in 1919.

Most important is to be clear that the owner, the Mayfair-based hedge fund Sisu, has no need to move the club from the Ricoh Arena, the home Coventry city council built for it in 2005, to groundshare with Birmingham City at St Andrew’s, Coventry Rugby Club at their Butts Park ground (capacity 4,000), or any other unsuitable couch-surf.

Throughout the sorry recent saga of Sisu pursuing aggressive, losing legal actions against the council, it is clear the toxicity and insecurity surrounding the club are self-inflicted. Wasps, the Premiership rugby club that bought the Ricoh after Sisu had tried to financially ruin the ground with a rent strike and buy it on the cheap, have consistently said they want to keep City playing there, if Sisu will stop suing.

Yet Sisu has so far not accepted that reasonable invitation, and maintained its position set out in extraordinary public statements in March, that: “Litigation is the only route available to Sisu to protect the club’s interests in the long term.”

That litigious route has so far led to years of court defeats, failure to agree a deal to stay at the Ricoh beyond this season, despair of fans, ruined relationships locally, and now the prospect of another move not much more enticing than the generally boycotted groundshare at Northampton Town in 2013-14.


Graun
   1206. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 21, 2019 at 08:48 AM (#5833909)
United are down and look bad.
   1207. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5833917)
I'm not sure what United can do. They need a full rebuild but high-level European soccer doesn't lend itself to that.
   1208. bunyon Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:53 AM (#5833919)
This game should count -40 points and United should be relegated.
   1209. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5833921)
Sad trombone sound ... oh, who am I kidding? Gleeful dancing!!!
   1210. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:58 AM (#5833922)
Before this game, 538 was already pretty high on Everton and low on United, such that this one game will put them very close to one another in overall ranking.

A win also gives Everton a chance to finish 7th in the league. Watford is still more likely, given the game in hand, but it's much closer now.
   1211. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 10:12 AM (#5833923)
This is very bad news for Liverpool. First, United looks terrible, so it seems doubtful they could hold City. Second, if United want to have any hope for CL next year, they have to beat City, so they have to go for it, which will likely leave them very exposed.

I'd put City at at least 67% for the league now.
   1212. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 11:20 AM (#5833931)
How do you leave Benteke all alone directly in front of the center of goal for the header of the free kick? That's terrible.

Maybe they were supposed to be playing Benteke offside with a higher line and the near-side defender just blew it, but it wasn't obviously the case.
   1213. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:26 PM (#5833937)
Another bad defensive mistake and Palace retake the lead. Then a minute later, Arsenal stops playing, calling for a foul at midfield, and Palace really should have grabbed another while Arsenal were outmanned at the back.
   1214. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:37 PM (#5833938)
Auba with a great run, finishes off a pretty give and go with the assist provided expertly by the Palace defender. 2-3 now.
   1215. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:53 PM (#5833941)
Both Man United and Arsenal lose today. Excellent for Spurs.
   1216. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5833943)
It's feast or famine for the best EPL midtable teams. First a 5-0 week, then an 0-5 week, and now 3 wins and two draws.

3 of the 8 wins were against top 6 teams (and 2 of the 5 losses). Arsenal was the victim on two of those wins, and United on another.

Still remaining against top-6 (all 3 of Leicester's games. Palace is done.)
Wolves v Arsenal
Leicester v Arsenal
Chelsea v Watford
City v Leicester
Liverpool v Wolves
Tottenham v Everton
Leicester v Chelsea
   1217. Baldrick Posted: April 21, 2019 at 01:08 PM (#5833944)
Chelsea lose 2-1 away to Lyon in the first leg of their women's Champions League semifinal. That's about as good as result as they could realistically have hoped for. Lyon are still heavy favorites, but Chelsea at least still have a chance. Bayern and Barca are currently 0-0 in the other leg. Barca are the much better team, but they're not playing very well today. If they can get out with a draw, they'll probably be happy.
   1218. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: April 21, 2019 at 01:21 PM (#5833947)
I'd put City at at least 67% for the league now.


I'd happily lay 2-to-1 on City for the league. They are going to win.
   1219. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 01:24 PM (#5833948)
Even with all of United's poor play, they still aren't actually out of it, especially due to Arsenal's loss today. A draw against City could give them a puncher's chance if the win their other 3 games. That includes a home game against Chelsea and then Huddersfield/Cardiff.

They would need Chelsea to drop points in any of their remaining games, none of which are gimmes so that's certainly possible (Home to Burnley, who have been playing well, Home to Watford, and away to Leicester). Then they'd ALSO need Arsenal to drop 5 points out of their last 12. That's less likely but it wouldn't be shocking, considering Arsenal have both Wolves and Leicester on the road this week, and finish the season at Burnley (their last game is Brighton at home).

Lose to City and they have to have an extra point dropped by each of Arsenal and Chelsea.

On the other side of the coin, there's basically no way United catches Spurs now. Spurs' only real worry is both Arsenal and Chelsea win out (very unlikely) while they drop a game somewhere (not unlikely). Or potentially Spurs slip up twice while the others each slip up at most once.
   1220. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 01:48 PM (#5833952)
I'd happily lay 2-to-1 on City for the league. They are going to win
You can! The betting odds are about 5% less than that (62% is common). I think those odds are low though.
   1221. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 02:37 PM (#5833970)
One last observation...there's currently about a 30% chance that the EPL gets a 5th team in the CL next year. close to 2/3 to win Europa, with the winner being about 50/50 not to be top 4 already. (Chelsea/Arsenal are considered even for a top 4 spot right now).

And for those who are interested, about 1 in 700 or so now, that league 4th spot doesn't get a CL spot, due to: 1) Spurs winning the CL (17%) and 2) finishing 5th or worse (under 13%) while 3) United finishes top 4 (Under 12% anyway, but even with Spurs crashing badly in this scenario, probably under 20%), 4) an EPL team winning Europa (still 64% or so) and 5) the Europa winner finishing out of top 4 in the league (still 50/50 or so if Spurs is out and United is in).
   1222. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5834014)
Couple mistakes above:

7th-11th are now 8 wins, 6 losses, 2 draws since April 1 (when we originally discussed this). I missed a Crystal Palace loss to Tottenham. I also forgot that Wolves beat United, so now the best midtable teams actually have 4 wins and 3 losses to the top 6 in April. The 4 wins are two each against United (Wolves/Everton) and Arsenal (Everton/Palace). The three losses are Palace losing to City and Spurs, and Watford losing to Arsenal. There are still 7 games remaining (out of 13 total that the best midtable teams play against teams not in their group), so the top 6 is likely to exact some revenge.

Also, the EPL getting 5 teams in the CL will also happen if Tottenham finishes outside the top 4 but wins the CL 9 (2%) and if Tottenham finishes 3rd and United finishes 4th, it doesn't matter which of Arsenal or Chelsea win Europa. (7%). Put it all together and there's 37% or more chance that the EPL gets a 5th team. Pretty significant.

   1223. Mefisto Posted: April 21, 2019 at 08:47 PM (#5834018)
The odds of United finishing 4th (or higher) don't look very good right now.
   1224. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:07 PM (#5834021)
Kind of interesting that 7-11 were just as good against top 6 (4w, 3l) as against the bottom 9 (4w, 3l, 2d). That's unlikely to be repeated over their last 13 games.

edit: even if 7-11 lose all the 7 remaining games against the top 6, they will still outperform the way they performed over the season prior to April if they manage to get another 10 or so points out of the 6 games against the bottom 9 teams in the table. That would give them 36 points from 29 games, which considering just under half those games are against the top 6, is as good or better than they had done through the end of March.
   1225. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 09:54 PM (#5834025)
Prior to April, 7-11 had taken something off of the top 6 in about 1/3 of games: 7w, 30l, 9d. To beat that rate they'd only need one result out of the last 7 games. Even if they lose all 7 they've already beaten their rate of .65 points per game. Odds are they'll get a result in 2, possibly 3 games. The 3 home games they have are especially dangerous for the top 6. Spurs hosting Everton on the last day of the season also stands a good chance of being meaningless for Spurs, so maybe there's some "danger" there as well.

I think it's fair to say 7-11 have overperformed to this point in April, and we're unlikely to see that again.

edit: Wolves record so far:
Against top 6: 3w, 3l, 4d (though they are almost -4 on xGD in these games (including penalties), so have been pretty lucky)
Against everyone else: 10w, 9l, 5d

Is it they can only really play well on the counter and don't know what to do against teams at their level or worse? If you only watch the top 6 play, you'd think Wolves were much better than they've actually played against all teams this year.

edit2: Watford has been the opposite, with only 1 result out of 11 games against top 6 this year, and they didn't even deserve that one win (victory over Spurs early in the season). They did play well in just one other game against the top 6 in a home loss to Arsenal.
   1226. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 10:22 PM (#5834028)
by xGD, Everton has performed just as well as Wolves against top 6 (-4 xGD). Their record is 3w, 6l, 2d.

The best performer so far has been Leicester though, and they still have two home games, but have to go to City. They've played the top 6 almost even in xGD so far, at just -1.5 or so through 9 games. Record was just 2w, 6l, 1d though.

Palace and Watford did much more poorly against top 6 by xGD.
   1227. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: April 21, 2019 at 10:57 PM (#5834033)
Whether they have what it takes to do it is one thing but I think Liverpool can gain solace from the fact that United need to play with a level of desperation on Wednesday, I suspect it won’t matter but I can see United having a similar response to what Chelsea did in the League Cup after the clobbering in the league.
   1228. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 21, 2019 at 11:39 PM (#5834038)
For the curious, record against top 6 grouped by tiers of teams:

7-11 (I've been including Palace based on xGD and 538's rankings):
20 results out of 53 played (11w, 33l, 9d). At this rate 3 more results in the last 7 games would not be that surprising, but with only 3 home games and the top 6 mostly desperately needing wins, 2 results would also be reasonably expected.

12-16 (all the rest but the relegation threatened. This also matches xGD and 538 rankings):
12 results out of 54 games played (7w, 42l, 5d). Probably the most interesting team here is West Ham, who has the worst xGD of the group and worst 538 ranking, but the best actual record and has 2w and 2d against top 6. Southampton also has 2 wins and 2 draws.
These teams only have 6 games left against the top 6. You'd expect 1 result, maybe 2 with a lot of luck. 3 of the games are Burnley, who have played very well over the 2nd half of the season, but they only have 1 home game (Arsenal). Tottenham goes to Bournemouth and hosts West Ham, and Liverpool goes to Newcastle.

17-20 (including Brighton. Brighton is 17th best in xGD, and not that far behind West Ham. Still has to play 3 of the top 6 though. Only ahead of Huddersfield in 538's rankings):
2 results out of 42 played (1w, 40l, 1d). Both Brighton (1w, 7l, 1d). The other 3 teams have a goose egg: 33 games so far, all losses.
6 games left for these 4. I'd be pretty surprised if they weren't all losses. Brighton has 2 road games and City at home. Cardiff has a road game for which it's very likely they'll already be relegated. The other 2 are Huddersfield.

   1229. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 12:19 AM (#5834045)
Only 3 games left in the Championship, and the games tomorrow (Monday!) might be the most critical. 5 of 6 teams (all except Derby, who is an outside shot anyway) with something likely to play for have tough road games. And probably half of them won't win. Should be interesting.
   1230. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:50 AM (#5834086)
It's only halftime in the Sheffield United game, but they are very nearly there to an auto slot. A couple of good results last week put them in the pole position over Leeds on GD, and now with a 3 goal halftime lead at Hull they should win this game and solidify GD as well.

Assuming they can beat lowly, long ago relegated Ipswich at home, they just need to win at Stoke on the last day of the season. If they fail to win at Stoke, they just need Leeds to drop points in one of their remaining 3 games. Leeds is away to Brentford today and to lowly Ipswich on the last day of the season. In between they have Villa at home. Villa is playing quite well, but if today's results hold (Bristol and Middlesbrough failing to win) they won't have anything left to play for in the final 2 weeks.
   1231. Richard Posted: April 22, 2019 at 12:12 PM (#5834117)
The Blades won a tricky fixture with ease.

Pressure on Leeds now.

Norwich only 3 points clear after a 4th straight draw.

   1232. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 12:23 PM (#5834122)
Looking very good for Sheffield United. They can still actually win the Championship! More importantly, if Leeds wins the current game, Norwich actually isn't totally safe after all.

WBA v Villa in the playoff. The other matchup is now likely to be Leeds, but with the results today their opponent could be any of Derby, Bristol or Middlesbrough, with Swansea having a small chance. All of those four except for Middlesbrough have 3 games remaining. Middlesbrough has just the normal 2.

Bristol/Derby next week is almost a playoff (a draw is probably bad for both), and depending on other results, Swansea/Derby could potentially be one as well.


   1233. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 12:40 PM (#5834127)
Seems like there was a crazy result last week in the Leeds game against 10-man Wigan, where Leeds had 36 shots, 10 on goal, an xG of 3.8 to 0.5, and still lost! There's a good chance that game will cost them an auto play spot. Now they just got robbed of a clear penalty.

If it comes to a playoff, Leeds should be big favorites against Derby/Bristol/Middlesbrough. They'd face a tough challenge against WBA/Villa though.
   1234. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 02:14 PM (#5834176)
Leeds go down 2-0 at Brentford. That means Norwich is essentially assured to be in the EPL next year. It also puts Sheffield United at about a 95% chance. All but over now.
   1235. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:09 PM (#5834207)
Chelsea are down... but it's early.
   1236. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5834211)
So much for that.
   1237. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:17 PM (#5834215)
So much for that.

In the time it took me to alert my Arsenal-fan friend to Chelsea being down 1-0, it's already 2-1.
   1238. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5834220)
2-2. Ye of little faith.

That said, Chelsea looks like they will score at least a couple more. They have tons of possession and chances.
   1239. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:47 PM (#5834241)
Even as a fan of a top 4 rival, I kind of want Chelsea to win because I can't ######' stand the way Burnley play.
   1240. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:49 PM (#5834244)
I have no quarrel with playing defensively, but it's the damned time-wasting that I can't stand, particularly when it starts in the first half.
   1241. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5834245)
Even as I make those last couple posts, and I understand that Chelsea players have high frustration right now, they just absolutely played into Burnley's hands by starting a minor scuffle.
   1242. jmurph Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5834247)
I'm not watching but 6 minutes of stoppage time in a half with no goals makes me think the time-wasting isn't working!

EDIT: Now into the 7th?
   1243. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:54 PM (#5834248)
Whistle gets blown at 96 minutes when at least 2 minutes were wasted in '5' minutes of stoppage time.
   1244. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5834250)
Chelsea lost the plot a bit in the second half. They totally dominated the first 45, but Burnley frustrated them quite a bit in the second half. They still weren't equal to Chelsea or anything close the second half, but Chelsea didn't at all play well enough to guarantee themselves a win either.
   1245. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5834252)
At this rate, Spurs can probably lose out and still finish 4th.

United looked dead and buried, but they are not quite yet. Even a loss against United wouldn't kill them off (though it would very nearly do so if Arsenal beats Wolves at the same time). Arsenal is only being given about 40% to win each of the next two away games, so very likely they won't take full points in both. Arsenal also has to play Burnley on the road the last game of the season, and a draw wouldn't be that surprising.
   1246. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 05:14 PM (#5834255)
xG in the first half was close to even, surprisingly, in part because the set piece goal was very high xG. Second half matched my expectations... only about 0.5 for Chelsea, and close to nothing for Burnley. They know how to hold onto a draw, and the second half went more or less exactly like they wanted it to.
   1247. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 06:58 PM (#5834267)
That Palace win over Arsenal was just the 4th away win against the top 6 by the rest of the league, in now 75 games. Each was against a different team:
Palace over Arsenal (2-1)
Palace over City (3-2)
Wolves over Spurs (3-1)
Leicester over Chelsea (1-0).

This Burnley draw was only the third time a team in the bottom 9 teams (throw in Watford if you, like me, think they are not one of the best 10 teams this year), took any points off of a top 6 team on the road. The other two times were Southampton away to Chelsea (0-0 snoozer where Southampton managed 0.2 xG) and Burnley away to United in a game United dominated. That's just 3 draws and 46 losses in 49 games (3 draws, 51 losses in 54 if you include Watford).

Let me tell you the odds of this Spurs game: currently Spurs are being given just 71% chance to win. That seems quite low to me. Similar odds for Arsenal hosting Brighton the following week. Now, Chelsea was being given an 80% chance to beat Burnley today. That seemed a tad high to me, considering Burnley's play over the last few months. Burnley is simply a much better team than Brighton right now. I know Brighton is looking to stay up, but still.

edit: for some context, the rest of the league has 15 wins at home against the top 6 (versus 4 on the road), and the bottom 10 teams has gotten a result at home in 15 games against the top 6 (versus 3 on the road). HFA for the top 6 has been big this year.

   1248. Mefisto Posted: April 22, 2019 at 07:10 PM (#5834268)
United looked dead and buried, but they are not quite yet.


Maybe not dead dead, but anyone who'd bet on United after watching the Everton game is a brave soul indeed.
   1249. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: April 22, 2019 at 08:22 PM (#5834277)
Question for those more knowledgeable than me. While Huddersfield and Fulham are legitimately terrible I feel like Brighton and Cardiff are pretty decent sides as teams in a relegation fight go. It seems like in recent years there have always been 4 or 5 teams that could get relegated with no loss to the EPL but this year I feel like whichever team stays up is going to be in a position to be decent next year.

Am I nuts?
   1250. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:29 PM (#5834310)
I'm no historian of the EPL, but based on some very limited stats, that seems to be both correct and incorrect.

First, there's not much evidence that Fulham is notably worse than Cardiff or Brighton. 538 has Fulham as better than both, and if there really 4 or 5 teams of relegation quality last year, than Brighton might have been one of those 4 or 5 (Southampton probably was not). They don't seem to really be any better this year.

xG has Fulham, Brighton and Cardiff as about equal. Traditional ELO has them all near each other as well. The next worst team by xG and 538 is West Ham, and it's pretty hard to argue that they are not EPL quality, at least as it exists currently.

On the other hand, 538 thinks that the very bottom of the table last year was significantly worse than it is this year, on an absolute basis. This year Cardiff and Fulham are just under a 60 rating, which would have been good enough for 12-15 in the table last year. I'm not sure if the numbers are supposed to be directly comparable or not.

Straight ELO is not as dramatic on this point, and rates the very bottom of the table at about the same absolute quality as in previous years. However ELO says that this year, as compared to the three previous years, has a big gap between the 4 bottom teams and the 16th worst team. In fact, the difference between Bournemouth (16th) and Everton (7th) is currently exactly the same number of points as the distance between Bournemouth and Brighton (17th). Before the last couple big wins by Everton, the gap was even smaller between 16h and 7th.

Long story short, the numbers seem to back up what you are saying to some degree, except that there are still 4 bad teams. It's the rest of the bottom of the table that has gotten better.
   1251. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 22, 2019 at 10:50 PM (#5834318)
One other note is that this year the bottom 3 teams in wages are Brighton, Cardiff and Huddersfield. To be fair here though, of those 3 only Cardiff and Huddersfield have been spending much less than the rest. Brighton is just at the bottom of a pretty close group that includes Wolves, Bournemouth, Burnley, Fulham and Newcastle.

If there were no relegation this year (but teams could spend, redo their line-ups, what have you), I'd definitely pick Huddersfield and Cardiff to be relegated again.
   1252. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:33 AM (#5834336)
Ran some quick(ish) sums on Championship xG from 538.

xGD (actual GD in paren)

Leeds: 35 (24).
Sheff Utd: 30 (35)
Norwich: 24 (34)
Villa: 18 (22)
WBA: 16 (26)
Swansea: 14 (3)
Middlesbrough: 6 (7)
Bristol: 4 (6)
Derby (-1) (11)

Based on these numbers, there are two teams that have had very bad "luck" this year: Leeds and Swansea. Leeds problem is almost all on the defensive end. By xG they should have the best defense in the league.

Three teams with good "luck": Norwich, WBA and Derby. All 3 of these teams, especially Norwich (+23), are scoring way more goals than expected. They're all giving up more than expected too, so that counteracts some of the huge differentials.

And four teams with normal "top of the table luck" (teams at the top of the table usually outperform xG slightly): Sheffield United, Villa, Middlesbrough, and Bristol.


I know Villa's been on a tear, and Norwich has barely lost since early October, but looking at second half numbers only doesn't really change the story, with one very notable exception:

Leeds: 19
Swansea: 14 (been on an xG tear over their last 10 games: +12. Only managed 6 wins and 4 losses. Partly boosted by playing all 3 relegation teams during that stretch.
Norwich: 13
Sheffield: 13
Villa: 11 (+12 during their current 10-game win streak, just like Swansea.)
WBA: 6
Middlesbrough: 0
Bristol: 0
Derby: -4

Too bad both Leeds and Sheffield United couldn't be promoted automatically, but Norwich has been decent enough. Swansea's excellent second-half xG hasn't been matched by actual results, they are only slightly over .500 in the second half.
   1253. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 12:41 PM (#5834454)
I was just screwing around and checked out stubhub for Champions League Final tickets and the cheapest ticket is 2500 euros. So, I guess I may just head into Manhattan and watch the game at a bar if Spurs get there. I have enough miles to use to get a plane ticket to Madrid, but 2500? Hell naw. I wonder if they'll do one of those stadium viewing parties at the new stadium? That might be fun, too... I think I would only do it if Barcelona were the opponent, though. I could stomach Spurs losing to Barca, but spending all the money to get kicked in the balls by Liverpool would be too much. I know I've already jinxed Spurs by even thinking about this stuff.
   1254. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:04 PM (#5834474)
Yeah, if you are relying on the secondary market, you are likely going to pay through the nose for an event like that.

That said, if you can manage to go on fairly short notice, it might be worth checking back, after the semis are done, and the finals is set. I doubt there are that many tickets on the market right now. But a bunch of Barca/Liverpool/Ajax fans will have booked tickets just in case (especially Barca fans, because they expect to make the finals, and it is in Spain). And once their teams go out, they will put up those tickets, which will drive prices down.
   1255. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:17 PM (#5834477)
I'll keep an eye on it. The trouble is booking a flight and taking it on faith I could get a reasonably priced ticket. I'd prefer to do both at once since I don't want to fly to Madrid and have to watch the game in a bar. If Spurs do make it I'll at least give it a shot as I'm pretty sure it would be now or never to see this kind of thing. I'm under no illusions that Spurs are about to make a habit of these kind of runs.
   1256. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:30 PM (#5834481)
So, I guess I may just head into Manhattan and watch the game at a bar if Spurs get there.

Remember when me and my then-girlfriend (now wife) watched the Dortmund-Bayern CL final with you at a bar? That was fun (and awkward)!
   1257. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:35 PM (#5834486)
Remember when me and my then-girlfriend (now wife) watched the Dortmund-Bayern CL final with you at a bar? That was fun (and awkward)!

Sure. Dortmund were robbed! Why was it awkward? Was my fly down the whole time?
   1258. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:51 PM (#5834492)
Just the general awkwardness of meeting up with someone you only know from the Internet. And the fact that I'm an awkward person.
   1259. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 01:59 PM (#5834498)
Just the general awkwardness of meeting up with someone you only know from the Internet. And the fact that I'm an awkward person.

If it makes you feel better, I don't remember any awkwardness. Then again, I was drinking and I get chatty when I'm drinking so I probably talked through the whole game and left thinking what a charming guy you were!
   1260. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:02 PM (#5834499)
Tottenham Hotspur: Lloris, Trippier, Alderweireld, Vertonghen, Rose, Eriksen, Wanyama, Alli, Lucas Moura, Llorente, Son.
Subs: Sanchez, Janssen, Dier, Foyth, Gazzaniga, Davies, Skipp.


4-3-3 I suppose ...
   1261. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:04 PM (#5834500)
Despite this being an 'easy' game, Pochettino is taking no chances. First-choice line-up for Spurs (among those currently healthy, anyway).
   1262. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:05 PM (#5834501)
Big game for Spurs, obviously. 3 wins in 4 guarantees them CL next year. But Brighton are fighting for their lives and this is a real banana skin game. Vincent Janssen lives! If he plays it means things have gone very, very well or horribly wrong. He's the only attacker on the bench!
   1263. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:09 PM (#5834504)
Take ALL the points. I care more about Top 4 for this team's future than CL at this stage ...
   1264. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5834506)
Just realized Knockaert is serving his suspension still and Glenn Murray is on the bench. Will be REALLY disappointed if Spurs can't get the 3 points here. Those are the two danger men for Brighton. Just have to keep Gross under wraps.
   1265. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5834522)
8 seconds for Southampton to score against Watford. Even if Watford hadn't fielded a team at all it would probably taken almost that long.
   1266. spivey Posted: April 23, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5834535)
Take ALL the points. I care more about Top 4 for this team's future than CL at this stage ...


That's crazy to me. We are really close to a huge trophy here. The team won't break if we finish 5th.

I mean, I'd like both, but we're in the semis. And no disrespect to Ajax who are rightly even betting odds, but they're about as easy of a draw as you could ever expect in the semis.
   1267. Mefisto Posted: April 23, 2019 at 03:55 PM (#5834541)
Assume Spurs have a 12.5% chance of winning the CL -- 50/50 with Ajax, 25/75 for Barca or Liverpool. I have to think their odds of finishing top 4 are better than that.
   1268. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:15 PM (#5834550)
We want Janssen! WILD CARD!
   1269. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5834553)
Duffy completely wipes out Alli in the box and the ref deems no foul. C'mon.
   1270. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5834561)
I want Janssen to get a winner here so badly.
   1271. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:23 PM (#5834562)


That's crazy to me. We are really close to a huge trophy here.


Yeah, and I was really close to Salma Hayek when I stood behind her in the Will-Call Line for tickets to Lawrence of Arabia at The Egyptian back in the '90s, I mean I didn't sleep with her that night, but I was really close ...

The team won't break if we finish 5th.


We're already losing Toby and likely Eriksen. We'll lose more if we finish out of a CL place.

We want Janssen! WILD CARD!


As you wish ...
   1272. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:24 PM (#5834563)
I mean I didn't get sleep with her that night, but I was really close ...
1 in 6? I'd take those odds.
   1273. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5834565)
Dear Jebus ... ERIKSEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

YES ... I AM THAT FAT MAN IN THE CROWD!!!
   1274. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:33 PM (#5834566)
Even if Spurs had only drawn today, they'd be like 80+% chance to be top 4. Of course now it's around 95%.
   1275. spivey Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5834569)
Eriksen you beauty!
   1276. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5834571)
Even if Spurs had only drawn today, they'd be like 80+% chance to be top 4. Of course now it's around 95%.


It's Spurs, and I was here for 2012 ...
   1277. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5834572)
Phew.

That really was a banana peel match waiting to happen.

Thank you Christian.

And I'm glad to see BHA lose after that ...
   1278. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5834575)
My best guess is that Spurs will be 99%+ to make the CL by the end of the weekend.
   1279. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 23, 2019 at 04:49 PM (#5834583)
Assume Spurs have a 12.5% chance of winning the CL -- 50/50 with Ajax, 25/75 for Barca or Liverpool. I have to think their odds of finishing top 4 are better than that.

FWIW, I think they are probably around 35%-40% in a single game against Barca/LFC. Single game format increases variance.
   1280. spivey Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:16 PM (#5834597)
I agree that Spurs were still in good position to make top 4 with a draw today. But, that's on the assumption they win the future games they are supposed to. It'd be nice to go into the Everton game not needing a result, both because they're good, because I want to be relaxed, and because we're going to running our healthy guys hard the next couple of weeks.
   1281. PASTE, Now with Extra Pitch and Extra Stamina Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:31 PM (#5834605)
Assume Spurs have a 12.5% chance of winning the CL -- 50/50 with Ajax, 25/75 for Barca or Liverpool


FWIW, I think they are probably around 35%-40% in a single game against Barca/LFC. Single game format increases variance.


My thought too. If it were a two-leg affair then 25% for Spurs against Barca or Liverpool might be right. But one match on a neutral* pitch with essentially a decisive coinflip if they draw through 120, they can't be less than 35%, right?

* The CL final is in Madrid, so if anything it might be less-than-neutral in Spurs/Ajax's favor, if Barca is playing. :)
   1282. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:34 PM (#5834606)
I fear the semis far more than the final.
   1283. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:37 PM (#5834607)
Betting odds have spurs at about 49.5% to advance, and a tad under 18% to win. So 36% to win the final, which means a little higher against Liverpool (close to 39%) and a little lower against Barca (probably around 1 in 3).
   1284. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5834608)
I agree that Spurs were still in good position to make top 4 with a draw today. But, that's on the assumption they win the future games they are supposed to
Sours finishing with 73 points would be over 50/50 to make the CL. And they were favored to win all their games, even the away game to Bournemouth.
   1285. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 05:41 PM (#5834609)
#### the odds. #### the King. Two legs against Ajax (with Spurs' current MASH unit) scares the pants off me.

And makes me hungry.

Think I'll take two chickens ...
   1286. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 06:07 PM (#5834615)
Tottenham has been favored to get a CL spot all year, probably since late September. They went up to about 90% or more in January, and dropped down to close to 60% a month ago, but it really hasn't been an especially interesting progression of chances unless maybe you're a Spurs fan.
   1287. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 06:17 PM (#5834619)
They went up to about 90% or more in January


I remember that time, I felt ... tingly.

and dropped down to close to 60% a month ago,


I remember that time also, I didn't feel ... tingly.

but it really hasn't been an especially interesting progression of chances unless maybe you're a Spurs fan.


Yes, but you're not a Spurs fan. See #1276

   1288. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 06:46 PM (#5834625)
Heh. Looking back, it seems very unlikely there was ever a time that year when Spurs had over 90% chance to make the CL, based on the table after each week.

edit: until late in the CL final that is. hehe.
   1289. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 23, 2019 at 07:26 PM (#5834633)
To be more precise, there were at most 5 minutes in the 2011-2012 season when Spurs had as high a chance to make the CL as they do right now: Between Muller's goal (83') and Drogba's goal (88').
   1290. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 23, 2019 at 11:15 PM (#5834736)

YES ... I AM THAT FAT MAN IN THE CROWD!!!


THIS FAT MAN IN THE CROWD!!!
   1291. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: April 24, 2019 at 07:45 AM (#5834778)

THIS FAT MAN IN THE CROWD!!!

That guys is a Newcastle fan and I will brook no argument about it.

Why are Spurs trying to end my life?
   1292. spivey Posted: April 24, 2019 at 09:03 AM (#5834790)
I will be interested in seeing how Poch lines up leg 1 of the Champions League vs. Ajax. Given Ajax's desire to press, play on the ball, and bring the game to opponents even on the road, I'd kind of like to line up with a cagier gameplan. Of course, so many of our top, say, 17 outfield players are hurt that it's kind of limited. I suspect it will either be:

Moura-Llorente
Alli-Wanyama-Eriksen
Rose-Verts-Sanchez-Toby-Trippier

Or a 4-4-2 with Winks in. If Winks can't get 30 minutes against West Ham I doubt he'll start, but it would be nice to help with ball retention. Lamela would be a nice option if he can come on late but his brand of soccer I don't love playing for 90 minutes because he's liable to pick up a yellow in the 11th minute.

Hopefully Aurier can start, but I've heard less about his fitness in the last week or two, which makes me think some of the initial thoughts he'd be back soon could be wrong.
   1293. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 24, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5834887)
but his brand of soccer I don't love playing for 90 minutes because he's liable to pick up a yellow in the 11th minute.


I think you're giving him 10 minutes too much credit ...
   1294. Mefisto Posted: April 24, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5834902)
If anybody wants to play midfield for United today, hie yourself over to Manchester:

David De Gea; Matteo Darmian, Chris Smalling. Victor Lindelof, Luke Shaw; Fred, Ashley Young, Andreas Pereira; Paul Pogba, Jesse Lingard; Marcus Rashford
   1295. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:02 PM (#5834916)
Well, this match ought to have some implications ...
   1296. jmurph Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:24 PM (#5834929)
Oh Arsenal.
   1297. aberg Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:40 PM (#5834944)
Probably shouldn't be surprising given United's personnel, but City are having a very easy time getting down their left flank. Zinchenko just carries the ball up field and Sterling gets to pick out passes. Seems like that could very easily create a goal if United doesn't do something differently in that part of the field.
   1298. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:52 PM (#5834950)
With all that, United is still world's better than they were against Everton. City is now down to 56% to win.
   1299. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 24, 2019 at 03:57 PM (#5834954)
Jebus, Arse ... 3-0???
   1300. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 24, 2019 at 04:06 PM (#5834962)
United will know that a draw will put them in not-so-bad shape. I wonder if that affects their approach in the second half.
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