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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

OT Soccer Thread, v.2019

Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!

Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:08 PM | 2067 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   401. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:26 AM (#5819703)
You said; “With that draw, Tottenham become comfortably the largest overperformer on the year v xG, if you include penalties (it was a big plus for Tottenham and minus for Arsenal in this regard).”

That lead to my question; “For xG purposes why would the penalty be a big plus for Spurs and a minus for Arsenal? Seems like in xG a penalty would be a penalty and worth, I’m guessing, about .75 of a goal.”

Is the “it” in your parenthetical referring to the game or the penalties? WhenI read it initially I thought you were referring to the penalties and I didn’t understand how a penalty would be a minus for xG purposes. Reading it again I’m thinking maybe you were referring to the match as a whole.

(Double posted for flippity floppity purposes)
   402. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:28 AM (#5819704)
Is the “it” in your parenthetical referring to the game or the penalties?
Yeah. Just the game itself. In the post I was talking about two different things that were only somewhat related to each other.
   403. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:32 AM (#5819706)
That is one hell of a goal by Valery.
   404. spivey Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:40 AM (#5819708)
So question about xG. How does the Eriksen chance and the missed follow count in the math? If Eriksen scores there, then the follow up shot doesn't happen. Does xG just take each shot as an independent event? I guess the Aubemeyang PK and follow-up would be the same thing?


Caley_Graphics only counts the largest xG event in an action. I think different ones handle it differently.

Probably the *best* way to handle it is to count the original xG, then add on partial xG for the follow up attempts with a weighting relative to how unlikely the first was. It probably doesn't matter a ton here because while Sissoko was very close to scoring and it took a great save, I don't think the xG was super high on that shot.

Tottenham badly need the international break. They are kind of a team without an identity right now. Tottenham's record against top 6 teams this year is pretty abysmal. I know I sound like a broken record, but they just can't win the middle of the park against those teams. Having Alli back should help some here. I think Eriksen's had his worst year in a few years, though, probably, and the double pivot has been week. I like Sanchez, but he had a bad performance today, even giving some slack on the penalty.
   405. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:57 AM (#5819713)
Couple of 0-0 first halfs. Manchester City had 80% possession but couldn't score at Bournemouth. Probably no one's watching, so who knows what it really played out like, but statistically Huddersfield may have outplayed Brighton in the first half, on the road (slightly). Maybe Hiddersfield has started to play some soccer again? Or maybe Brighton is just that bad. By xG they've only been better than Huddersfield since early in the year, pretty much even with Fulham and Cardiff.
   406. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 02, 2019 at 10:59 AM (#5819714)
Frankfurt-Hoffenheim is a terrific game. Fox’ coverage is awful* but this is a crazy game. Hoffenheim up 2-1 but now a red in the 65th opens the door for Frankfurt.

* - I’m sure they’re just using a feed given to them but the crowd is turned down much too far and the announcers are not very good. I think on merit the Bundesliga games are better than EPL games but the EPL is so appealing in large part due to the atmosphere.
   407. spivey Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:17 AM (#5819719)
I don't know if the stats back this up but when I watch the Bundesliga it always feels like the teams aren't playing any defense. It makes for exciting soccer when a couple of the good teams are involved.
   408. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:23 AM (#5819721)
On Jose's suggestion, I turned on the Frankfurt/Hoffenheim game. It's been a shooting gallery for Frankfurt up a man, and they finally drew level after a number of very good chances.
   409. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:29 AM (#5819722)
And now they get the winner in the 96th minute! Truthfully that’s harsh on Hoffenheim who really were the better side for the first 65 minutes then held on valiantly after going down to ten men but the last ten minutes or so they ran out of steam.
   410. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:31 AM (#5819724)
Frankfurt with a goal in the 96th minute goal. Based only on the last 20 minutes only (up a man the whole time), it seems deserved. Both teams needed a win today as they are both outside a CL spot looking in, so not too surprising they would play offensively, especially Frankfurt up a man and down a goal. No good reason not to play almost all out offense at that point.

edit: had the team names backward above. Especially dumb, because I am rooting for Frankfurt this year in the Bundesliga and had planned to watch this game but had forgotten it was on until Jose reminded me.
   411. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:35 AM (#5819726)
Three great goals in the United/Southampton game. It would be a bad time for United to drop points here.
   412. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 11:57 AM (#5819734)
No shots by Bournemouth against Manchester City. Supposedly happened only once before in the EPL in the last 10 years.
   413. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 12:21 PM (#5819737)
It's true that Manchester United struggled to beat lowly Southampton at home. But maybe that's mostly because Southampton hit on two amazing shots. Final xG (including the missed penalty) was not close: about 2.6 t0 0.6. Even without the penalty chance, on a typical day United would have won fairly comfortably with that performance.
   414. spivey Posted: March 02, 2019 at 01:56 PM (#5819745)
Burnley lost to Palace, but comfortably won xG. When I was looking at some xG stats for the discussion earlier this week, since 12/18 (when Mourinho was fired), Burnley was actually in 4th place for xPoints (behind Liverpool, City, and Man U) via Understat. They're only 5 points from safety, but really if they keep this form up there's no chance they go down.
   415. Mefisto Posted: March 02, 2019 at 02:11 PM (#5819747)
@397: That foul by Xhaka should have been a yellow IMO. Perhaps more significantly, Lee F'ing Dixon thought it should have been a yellow.
   416. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 02:21 PM (#5819749)
They're only 5 points from safety, but really if they keep this form up there's no chance they go down.
Yeah they are playing so well in the second half of the season. It's night and day compared to their terrible first half. Even if they play halfway in between the rest of the way (dusk/dawn, I guess), they will probably stay up pretty easily. They don't have to outrun a bear, just one of Cardiff, Brighton, Southampton and Newcastle. Cardiff in particular is in bad shape at this point, and they still have to play 4 of the top 6.
   417. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 02, 2019 at 02:23 PM (#5819751)
Gladbach might finally be falling back to earth after a hot start. I'm kind of hoping one of the other Bundesliga teams takes a top 4 spot (Frankfurt, Hoffenheim, Leverkusen) since Gladbach doesn't really seem to be that good. They didn't put up a fight at home today against Bayern.
   418. spivey Posted: March 02, 2019 at 03:08 PM (#5819757)
I think I'd like Frankfurt to make the CL because their front 3 is good enough to get them out of any group, but my worry is that next year they won't have 2 of their front 3 and the team that is in the CL isn't representative of the one that qualified. I guess that's going to be the risk with many of the non-RB/BVB/Bayern German teams right now. Even Bayer, who seems like a team that should be relatively capable of holding onto their top talent, seems like they'll potentially lose Brandt this summer.
   419. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 02, 2019 at 06:00 PM (#5819774)
First half of the US-England game in the SHeBelieves Cup was a doozy. I don’t watch a lot of women’s soccer but to my untrained eye the US seems quicker than England but England look like a pretty big, strong team. The English goal came off a well-worked indirect free kick after the rare back pass. Dellacamera, who I usually like, seemed confused and annoyed that it was taking a long time to get lined up saying “it’s just an indirect kick.” Technically he’s right but of course it was an indirect kick in the box and the TV microphones were picking up Rapinoe arguing vociferously (and correctly) “they moved the ball forward!” But the ref didn’t seem bothered.

In other news I’m also checking out the NE Revs and FC Dallas and I can say that MLS officials are in mid season form.
   420. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 08:31 AM (#5819830)
Watford is letting Leicester have all the possession, but Leicester looks completely impotent to this point. All the (few) best chances have gone to Watford, and Watford is up 1-0.

edit: And then Vardy gets a goal on a pretty through-ball after a turnover. First breakdown in defense by Watford.
   421. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 08:44 AM (#5819831)
Minutes after Vardy's goal he is suffering from double vision and may have had a head injury. But he hit his head over an hour earlier in a bad collision with Foster. If that's where his injury came from, which seems likely, it's pretty frightening how soccer refuses to take concussions seriously.

edit: Vardy started bending over with his hands on his knees for a minute or two, with a pained look on his face, then ended up just sitting in the center circle while play went on at the Leicester end. Announcers said it looked like he had a confused and pained look in his facem and immediately suspected a head injury.
   422. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 08:50 AM (#5819832)
Regarding the game itself, Watford don't look as tight at the back now that the score is level. Maybe they got tired, or their structural philosophy changed since they no longer have the lead. For the first time in the game Leicester looks like the better team. Too late now though, as there is probably not enough time for either side to get a winner.

edit: That's the second time I jinxed this game. Watford gats a late winner, this time after a turnover by Schmeichel.
   423. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 08:55 AM (#5819833)
Strange game. Watford was the better team, and very defensively sound, for 70 minutes but gave up the leveler, then was second best for the last 20 minutes, scrambling a bit on defense, but got the winner. I suspect Leicester is the better team in the long run, but for the most part Watford was able to play their game and deserved to win.
   424. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 03, 2019 at 09:31 AM (#5819834)
Fulham can look ok for very short stretches, but they are just really, really bad.

Edit: and as soon as I typed that, they score. Chelsea is not good either.
   425. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 09:46 AM (#5819836)
Fulham has given up 65 goals to this point in the season. Most ever apparently to this point. The EPL record is 89 given up in a 38 game season (Derby 2008) and 100 in a 42 game season (Swindon 1994). Fulham will have to pick up the pace a little bit if they want to be worst ever. They have a fairly hard schedule though coming up, so it seems well within reach.
   426. Baldrick Posted: March 03, 2019 at 09:47 AM (#5819838)
First half of the US-England game in the SHeBelieves Cup was a doozy. I don’t watch a lot of women’s soccer but to my untrained eye the US seems quicker than England but England look like a pretty big, strong team. The English goal came off a well-worked indirect free kick after the rare back pass. Dellacamera, who I usually like, seemed confused and annoyed that it was taking a long time to get lined up saying “it’s just an indirect kick.” Technically he’s right but of course it was an indirect kick in the box and the TV microphones were picking up Rapinoe arguing vociferously (and correctly) “they moved the ball forward!” But the ref didn’t seem bothered.

Very messy game. Phil Neville (England coach) called it the best advertisement for women's soccer he's seen, which...well, I don't agree with that. There was certainly a lot of excitement, though. And three excellent goals. England's in the second half was probably my favorite. Fran Kirby has three assists in these last two games, all of which were really good.

Both teams are in a weird place, where they have a very set system (US in a 433 with a holding mid and five very attacking players ahead of her, England in a pretty flat 4231), which they seem to be trying to maintain, while also building in a bit of flexibility - and trying to account for some missing players. Neither has really done much at this tournament to suggest that their tweaks are having much success. But maybe that doesn't really matter?

It was the first cap for Adi Franch, who has probably been the best US keeper for 18 months. And she only got the game because the #1 got a minor injury and will be out for a week. It's unfortunate that she made such a blunder in her first game. But also: that's why you cap players before you might need to rely on them in a knockout game.
   427. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 09:56 AM (#5819840)
Fulham has already lost the other 9 London derbies. No team has lost 10 in a season. Out of the 9 games, all but one had at least a 2-goal margin. That's an impressive record of futility.
   428. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 10:17 AM (#5819841)
Ream with a handling in the box. Seems like that would be a penalty with VAR and "silhouette" rules. Not intentional or deliberate, and no way to get out of the way once the ball was kicked, but his hands were out from his body...
   429. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 10:43 AM (#5819843)
Huddersfield is on a pace to tie Derby (2008) for fewest goals scored in an EPL season (20). How bad was that Derby team?
   430. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 11:00 AM (#5819847)
Chelsea cut it very close today. They were the better team, sure, but it was a pretty shaky performance.
   431. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 03, 2019 at 11:38 AM (#5819848)
It was the first cap for Adi Franch, who has probably been the best US keeper for 18 months. And she only got the game because the #1 got a minor injury and will be out for a week. It's unfortunate that she made such a blunder in her first game. But also: that's why you cap players before you might need to rely on them in a knockout game.


Thanks I forgot to ask about her. I was wondering how much experience she had. I thought on the whole she played pretty well (yeah but...). Assuming the blunder was just a one time thing rather than something that’s a regular feature of her game she looked perfectly serviceable to me.
   432. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 03, 2019 at 11:41 AM (#5819849)
Huddersfield is on a pace to tie Derby (2008) for fewest goals scored in an EPL season (20). How bad was that Derby team?


Dreadful. Awful. Terrible. My recollection is they were much more of a shambles than Huddersfield which seems to be more of a mind to just accept their fate and steady the ship for the trip to the Championship. Derby seemed a bit lost. It’s worth noting that while they survived they were on the cusp of the relegation fight and finished 18th. We will see what happens but I expect Huddersfield to be much better than that next year.
   433. Baldrick Posted: March 03, 2019 at 12:08 PM (#5819852)
Huddersfield is on a pace to tie Derby (2008) for fewest goals scored in an EPL season (20). How bad was that Derby team?

They have been discussed twice on this page. Once for scoring the fewest goals ever in the EPL. And once for allowing the most goals in the EPL. That's how bad they were.

Edit: Their goal difference was -69. Man City's record-breaking GD last year was +79. Whoever played Derby was transformed for the day into Pep's Man City.
   434. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 03, 2019 at 12:11 PM (#5819853)
They have been discussed twice on this page. Once for scoring the fewest goals ever in the EPL. And once for allowing the most goals in the EPL. That's how bad they were.
That's what precipitated my question. -69 in GD. Even though I enjoy seeing extreme seasons, I almost don't want a team to allow more goals or score fewer than Derby, as it's fun to have a single team hold both records. It's fairly hard to imagine a team being even more futile simultaneously at both ends of the field again.
   435. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: March 03, 2019 at 04:17 PM (#5819903)
Follow-up to last week's referee giving Fiorentina a game-tying penalty in extra time by using VAR to confirm a handball that should absolutely not have been called a handball: This week, the referee gave Napoli (also the home team) a game-tying penalty in the 84th minute by using VAR to confirm a handball that should absolutely not have been called a handball.

I checked and it is a different referee. The other one has been suspended for 3 games. This one is probably safe because Insigne missed the penalty anyway.
   436. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 04, 2019 at 01:47 PM (#5820053)
I'm not a proponent of VAR in general, but that ship has apparently sailed, so I'd like to make it work as well as possible. To be fair to VAR, in the Fiorentina game the VAR booth called down to the field official on a play that was incorrectly ruled a penalty, so if the on-field ref had been doing his job properly, VAR would have been very helpful. In the Napoli game it was the other way around, where VAR called down on a play that probably should not have been a penalty (though a bit less obviously). Without VAR in the Napoli case there would not have been a penalty and we would have been better off.

FIFA needs to clarify the handball rule, because it has always been called inconsistently. VAR is just highlighting this to the point where it has become unacceptable. FIFA is reportedly doing at least two things that make sense already, getting rid of the "deliberate" wording, which has always been a red herring and led to more arguments than it solved, and adding a "natural silhouette" wording. I hope they still keep the distance to the play and ball to hand v hand to ball stuff. With that said, there probably needs to be a rule where that Napoli play would not be a penalty. The defender jumped to play the cross, and I think got some contact on it with his head, and as his head was still turned the other way and before he had even come down from his jump, the ball was volleyed squarely off his arm (just glancing off his chest first) from a yard away. If plays like these will be penalties, all defenders will have to defend with their hands by their side on every play in the box, even jumping to head crosses. It's not conceivable.

There should be a distinction in the rules between this play and one in which a defender is close to the ball (say three yards) and knows a shot is coming, so jumps or slides with his arm away from his body in a way that, even if the arm position is not specifically intentional, creates a bigger target for the offensive player in a situation where the defender is specifically trying to block the offensive play. That's not at all what happened in the Napoli game.

Regarding the ball glancing off a chest or head first and then the arm, I don't think there can be an absolute rule. If, for example, a defender makes himself big with his arms out in an attempt to block a shot, and the ball just glances off his chest before hitting his arm squarely, that should probably be a penalty. For example, if the play in the Napoli game had occurred exactly the same way, except that the defender specifically was trying to block the shot with his body (even if not with his arm), then it should have been a penalty because of his arm position creating an advantage.

The handball rule has always been vague and there has always been referee discretion and different refs calling it differently. We have just shrugged it off a little bit because it wasn't necessarily clear how much the ref saw at full speed in real time, so we weren't sure what the ref was basing his decisions on. Now that we know, we see that the decisions overall are unacceptably inconsistent. While VAR is far from ideal in general, for these calls specifically it's really the handball rule that needs fixing.

Once they address that they can try to fix the penalty rule itself. Then maybe we'd be getting somewhere.
   437. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: March 04, 2019 at 02:12 PM (#5820059)

FIFA needs to clarify the handball rule,

God, yes. I'm at the point now where I don't even know what one is.
   438. Crispix Attacksel Rios Posted: March 04, 2019 at 02:20 PM (#5820062)
The announcers in Napoli-Juventus just sounded depressed at the notion that that could be overturned by video and turned into a handball. They were going through the ramifications in their heads and seemed to be losing enthusiasm rapidly. Forget diving, the best strategy is going to be kicking the ball at the defender's arms at point blank range.
   439. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 04, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5820078)
Something is wrong with 538's odds of advancing in a home and home. Noted here earlier was Ajax given a 25% chance to advance over Real Madrid (betting odds now around 12%). Now there's also Lyon given a 22% chance by 538 (betting odds now around 19%). The second one admittedly is not far off from the actual odds, but if you look at 538's Barca/Lyon game odds it makes no sense, because 538 gives Barca an 80% chance to win the game outright in 90 minutes, so Barca's odds of advancing needs to be higher than 78% (at very least 80%) overall by 538's own methodology. FWIW, betting odds and 538 are almost exactly even on the Barca game itself (stand alone), so 538's odds of Lyon advancing should be at most 18 or 19%.

On Real Madrid v Ajax, 538 is very down on Real Madrid these days (ranked 7th in the world) and very high on Ajax (ranked 9th), that the rating difference is about the same as Chelsea/Tottenham v Arsenal. Eyeballing 538's game odds shows that there is at least a 4% discrepancy in Ajax advancing (25%) over Ajax advancing based on 538's in-game odds (at most 21% or so). The remaining 9% difference (to get to 12% betting odds) is explained by disagreement over team quality.
   440. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:22 PM (#5820435)
Well, I'd say Ajax is putting those odds to shame ...
   441. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5820437)
Real Madrid probably shouldn't have agreed to meet Ajax behind the wood shed...
   442. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:28 PM (#5820439)
Bale is already coming on.
   443. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:29 PM (#5820441)
Yeah this game is nuts. No defense at either end. It's not even clear Ajax has had the better chances, but they are certainly winning. A wide open game is exactly what a team behind 2-1 on the road would want. Considering that is how this game is shaping up, it seems that Madrid is incapable of preventing Ajax from getting good chances. Could be a very long day for Madrid. Or Madrid could win 4-2. It's very hard to say right now.
   444. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5820445)
Ajax is coming real close to killing this game off.
   445. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5820447)
Dortmund bossing Spurs this half, but so far have failed to score.

Tick, clock, tick!
   446. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5820451)
C'mon Ajax! I want Real Madrid to fall! Just imagine the freakout!
   447. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 03:56 PM (#5820460)
Spurs have been under siege but they held out. And they actually quite conceivably could/should have had a penalty.
   448. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:04 PM (#5820462)
Also, re: Derby 2007/2008, they beat Newcastle on September 17, 2007... and proceeded to lose or draw every remaining game. They only drew five times after October, for that matter. 11 points total.
   449. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:09 PM (#5820465)
The dribble and pass by Tadic to set up Ajax' second goal was dirty as ####.

Tottenham are getting massively outplayed. I'd like to see some small tactical changes here. ... I'm sitting on this post and then some really nice passing sets Kane free and a great goal by Kane. Wooo!!!
   450. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:10 PM (#5820469)
Through ball from Sissoko for the goal (plus the typical brilliant Kane finish). I'm still stunned at how good Sissoko has been this season.
   451. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5820470)
There were like 3 or 4 of Tottenham's best passes of the game in a row to set that goal up.
   452. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:16 PM (#5820473)
Sanchez has been good tonight. A nice bounceback. And Aurrier... the RB starting spot is his for the rest of the year as far as I'm concerned. The thick fixture congestion is behind us now, and he's just way more steady. That's a sentence I did not expect to say in September. Trippier must have sold his soul to the devil to have that WC performance.
   453. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:18 PM (#5820475)
"It's a risky ball from Dier" should be Dier's middle name.
   454. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:21 PM (#5820478)
Hot damn Real are serious trouble now.
   455. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5820481)
Oh man I am so excited to see Juve AND Real Madrid hopefully out after a knockout round.
   456. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5820482)
Man. Have a game, Dusan Tadic.
   457. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:24 PM (#5820486)
Good lord, if it takes this long to make the decision it by definition is not clear and obvious.

Well, good news the goal stands.
   458. aberg Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:25 PM (#5820487)
Woohoo! Bad things to Madrid!
   459. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:26 PM (#5820490)
I think it's correct that the goal is given. But is the ref not allowed to take a look himself? He was only listening the whole time.
   460. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:27 PM (#5820491)
I think that's the right ruling. There is no view right down the line, and each view from the angles on either side differed and can't easily be definitive because the ball is spherical but the rule is based on a 2-dimensional view from directly above.
   461. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5820493)
Sheesh. This game is far, far from over.
   462. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5820494)
And just like that game back on.
   463. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5820495)
And just like that game off.
   464. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5820496)
hehehehe. This is awesome.
   465. PepTech Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:32 PM (#5820498)
You were saying?
   466. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5820500)
Wow. Schone was definitely trying to score there. That was not a mishit cross.

Good thing Ramos took that 'tactical' yellow in the first leg, eh?
   467. Mefisto Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5820501)
That has to be one of the greatest free kicks I've ever seen.
   468. PepTech Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:38 PM (#5820504)
That has to be one of the greatest free kicks I've ever seen.
Agreed.
   469. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5820508)
And that's how you run the 3 on 1.
   470. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5820509)
Why isn't Modric shooting there?
   471. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:46 PM (#5820510)
Yeah I think Modric's pass was bad. Even without the slip it wasn't clear that he was putting Benzema in a great position, and he had a great chance to score on his own.

And now Ajax misses a sitter's sitter... luckily it doesn't matter.
   472. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:51 PM (#5820514)
Real Madrid's season is effectively over now. Even if they relatively poorly the rest of the way in La Liga they'll very likely get a top 4 spot, and they have no chance to win La Liga (and are out of the cup).
   473. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 04:56 PM (#5820517)
Real Madrid's season is effectively over now. Even if they relatively poorly the rest of the way in La Liga they'll very likely get a top 4 spot, and they have no chance to win La Liga (and are out of the cup).


Of course, that means it's time for this kind of #### to start up in earnest (from the Graun MBM):

73 min: It’s a good night for Tottenham and yet in so many ways it’s a very, very bad night for Tottenham. Real Madrid’s imminent exit from the Champions League at the hands of Ajax will surely rule out any small chance their manager Santiago Soilari had of keeping his job for next season. And who do we think it is that Real president Florentino Perez has his beady on with a view to replacing him? Give yourself a gold star if you answered Mauricio Pochettino.
   474. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:01 PM (#5820519)
A team like Tottenham is always going to have other teams wanting their best players and managers. That's a sign of good things. They will never be at the Man U/Real/Barca level unless ownership changes.

Tottenham lost xG tonight but it wasn't a bad performance. Got to rotate through some guys and Lloris was excellent. It was great to see him and Sanchez play well today, as they can't finish in the top 4 without a strong finish from both.

This feels a lot better than giving up a 2 goal lead on Juventus in the second half of a home game.
   475. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:07 PM (#5820523)
Even with Real Madrid's general defensive shabolicness, until that last miss by Ajax the xG was almost even (1.9 to 2.1 or something). Of course, the game being wide open was not at all in Madrid's favor. They would have been much better served with a 0.5-0.5 game than a 2.0-2.0 game. They just seemed incapable of playing defense.
   476. aberg Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:14 PM (#5820528)
Real Madrid's season is effectively over now. Even if they relatively poorly the rest of the way in La Liga they'll very likely get a top 4 spot, and they have no chance to win La Liga (and are out of the cup).


Probably means lots of Vinicius, Ascensio, Ceballos. Maybe cameos for Diaz, Llorente, Odriozola. Have to assume that Bale, Modric, and Marcelo have played their last meaningful games for the squad. Harder to say for guys like Benzema, Kroos, Casemiro who either aren't that old or who don't have natural replacements. Isco is probably gone. I assume that Courtois and Varane are there for the long haul, and Ramos isn't going anywhere.
   477. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:14 PM (#5820531)
They just seemed incapable of playing defense.


Maybe, and I'll just throw this out there, maybe their best defender shouldn't have gotten himself suspended for this game.
   478. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:20 PM (#5820535)
A team like Tottenham is always going to have other teams wanting their best players and managers. That's a sign of good things.


Well, mostly it's a sign of the lazy adherence to established #NARRATIVE that bedevils the English press ...
   479. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:25 PM (#5820536)
Well, mostly it's a sign of the lazy adherence to established #NARRATIVE that bedevils the English press ...

Sure, there's some of that. But there's also plenty of "Real is firing their coach and Poch is one of the best managers in the world, who also happens to speak Spanish, would probably like to win some trophies and get paid double what's he's making now, and hasn't been given a transfer budget the last two windows".

I think if Spurs don't give him the budget to bring in 1-2 good players this off season, he's gone.
   480. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:26 PM (#5820537)
Not a great performance by Spurs by any means, but they got it done.

On to the Quarters!

Also, I'd like to thank TNT for saving me some money today. I had an 11:00 meeting just down the street from The Olde Ship in Santa Ana and if the Spurs match had been on TV, I would have had to stop in for lunch and pints and to watch the match (even if it happens to be the home base for the OC Gooners). So ... thanks TNT, for being so ####### shitty at this whole broadcasting the Champions League thing ...
   481. spivey Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5820538)
Generally agree with 476. Kroos looks *really* slow these days. If Real don't get a true water carrier for him like Kante, you should probably just drop him too.

Real hasn't really made any huge transfer moves for a few seasons now. I wonder if the pressure with this exit forces some of that. I'm kind of happy, because there will be tremendous pressure to do something. I think that could mean Hazard and Eriksen leaving. Which, I'd hate to see Eriksen leave, but if he's not going to resign, I'd rather Real have pressure to not just let his contract run down.
   482. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 05:39 PM (#5820539)
Sure, there's some of that. But there's also plenty of "Real is firing their coach and Poch is one of the best managers in the world, who also happens to speak Spanish, would probably like to win some trophies and get paid double what's he's making now, and hasn't been given a transfer budget the last two windows".

I think if Spurs don't give him the budget to bring in 1-2 good players this off season, he's gone.


Real worries me less than PSG and Tuchel seems secure there for the moment.

Real just seems the poisoned chalice; sure you get lots of money to spend, but there's a good chance that someone else is deciding the players coming in; tremendous amount of cliques, back biting and infighting, "Galacticos" and all their ego bullshit, ridiculous, immediate pressure to win now and bigly (and BEAT BARCA), I just see that as a headache destination for Poch, like managing for the Steinbrenner-era Yankees.

Levy/ENIC need to bite the bullet and drop some serious coin on this team this summer, the midfield and fullbacks in particular, I agree with you there.

AND ####### EXTEND ERIKSEN ALREADY!!!

(I've already long since resigned myself to losing Toby ... dammit)
   483. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 06:12 PM (#5820552)
Oh ... just noticed it was Barry Glendenning doing the MBM ... NOW it all makes sense.

####.
   484. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 05, 2019 at 06:14 PM (#5820553)
The England/Japan match in the SheBelieves Cup is streaming on ussoccer.com. A win for either team wins the tournament; England leads 3-0 at half time.
   485. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: March 05, 2019 at 06:42 PM (#5820562)
Real just seems the poisoned chalice; sure you get lots of money to spend, but there's a good chance that someone else is deciding the players coming in; tremendous amount of cliques, back biting and infighting, "Galacticos" and all their ego bullshit, ridiculous, immediate pressure to win now and bigly (and BEAT BARCA), I just see that as a headache destination for Poch, like managing for the Steinbrenner-era Yankees.


Nothing in here is wrong but....people take those jobs. Poch, like most big name managers, isn’t going to think “what if I fail?” He’s going to think “hey I get paid double and I’ll have a massive budget to spend in the window God they are going to love me when I bring home a treble next year.”
   486. Mefisto Posted: March 05, 2019 at 06:51 PM (#5820563)
Schadenfreude set a new world record today. The last peak nearly this high was Mazeroski's home run.
   487. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 06:55 PM (#5820565)
Nothing in here is wrong but....people take those jobs. Poch, like most big name managers, isn’t going to think “what if I fail?” He’s going to think “hey I get paid double and I’ll have a massive budget to spend in the window God they are going to love me when I bring home a treble next year.”


Maybe, we'll certainly see, but Poch strikes me as a odd duck, a Popovich or Jackson kind of manager; it's not that winning or money isn't important, it's just that they may just fall behind process, control and project in Poch's mind.

Like I said, we'll see how things shake out, but I'm not particularly worried this summer ... if Levy loosens the wallet enough.

Another transfer window of ENIC's "we're just too poor, won't someone think of the stadium ... TEH STADIUM!!!1!!" bullshit and if I was Poch, I'd be just like Rawls talking to McNulty.
   488. aberg Posted: March 05, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5820566)
If Real are going to return to the level of the elite world class, they probably need a wide attacking player, a true box-to-box mid (maybe even two), and a striker. The players at those positions who are at least theoretically available would be guys like Hazard/Neymar/Dybala?, Eriksen/Milinkovic-Savic?/Other?, and Kane/Lewandowski. If they bought Hazard, Eriksen, and Lewandowski, that would have to cost over 300m, wouldn't it?
   489. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: March 05, 2019 at 07:09 PM (#5820567)
If they bought Hazard, Eriksen, and Lewandowski, that would have to cost over 300m, wouldn't it?


I think 400m is a reasonable starting point for those three in total.
   490. vortex of dissipation Posted: March 05, 2019 at 07:20 PM (#5820571)
And England 3, Japan 0 is the final.
   491. spivey Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:21 AM (#5820612)
Hazard is 28, which isn't old, but it isn't young anymore. You're looking at one contract before you would try to ship him on, and frankly you're probably trying to do that in 3 years anyways. Eriksen is 26 so realistically should have at least a few top years in him. Both only have a year left on their contract, which I think lowers the price some.

As for Lewa, he'll be turning 31 this summer. Signing him seems like a bad idea. They should be looking for the next Lewa. There's been talk about Bayern signing Jovic if Lewa leaves. I'd rather just have Jovic if I'm Real.

All this is to say, I don't think they should be targeting that group of players, they'll just need a new batch in 2 years. But I think they could probably get them under 300 million pounds (roughly 130 for Hazard, 70 for Eriksen, 70 for Lewa)? I dunno, I am not sure any of them should cost more than that. Maybe Eriksen, but he's young enough to where there's more risk he lets his contract run out and maintains value going into the 2020 summer.
   492. Shooty would run in but these bone spurs hurt! Posted: March 06, 2019 at 09:52 AM (#5820626)
I think this is where Man City and PSG have really hurt Real Madrid. 10 years ago, in their current situation, they could go full Galactico and bring in 3 or 4 players, but it's too expensive to do that now, even for them. So they have to develop players more but they (and Barca) are finding out that even the best development programs are hit and miss. So the margin for error for Barca and Real is thinner than it used to be and it doesn't take much for them to look ordinary.

I agree that Real can get Lewandowski pretty cheap. I bet Bayern will be actively looking to unload him this summer and replace him with Werner. I think they can get all 3 for around 200 to 250 million Euros.
   493. aberg Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:14 PM (#5820743)
Ok, we got rid of Real. Now let's do Man U.

That was a heads-up play by Lukaku. Garbage back pass, but good job by him being ready for it. Mbappe getting one back was not surprising.
   494. aberg Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:19 PM (#5820748)
PSG is fascinating to watch because they usually play about one MF. It creates such an up-and-down style.
   495. spivey Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:35 PM (#5820756)
Buffon really chucklefucked that. Oh man, if PSG blew a 2-0 first tie lead against this Man U lineup, there would be hell to pay.
   496. I am going to be Frank Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5820759)
PSG is trying to blunder their way into a united victory.

Bailly off thank god.
   497. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:39 PM (#5820760)
Apparently Mourinho is going back to Real Madrid. That would make me so, so happy.
   498. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:42 PM (#5820761)
I dunno, I want PSG to fall just because I never want them to win anything other than Ligue 1 a million times in a row. And because I think Manchester United will be easier pickings in the later stages.
   499. aberg Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5820767)
I'd be very surprised if either of these teams won. I'm highly confident that one of City, Barca, Juve, Bayern will win (and Juve have a lot of work to do. Maybe Atleti could be in that group instead).
   500. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: March 06, 2019 at 03:47 PM (#5820768)
United is still pretty unlikely to advance today, but they were even significantly less likely to get the win away to Juventus, down 1-0 after 80 minutes, that allowed them to get out of the group stage. So you never know.
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