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Wednesday, January 30, 2019

OT Soccer Thread, v.2019

Looks like the last thread is closed, so onto the new!

Upcoming Matches of Interest
2/3 Madrid Derby
2/4 Manchester City v. Arsenal
2/10 Manchester City v. Chelsea
2/12 Manchester United v. PSG
2/13 Tottenham v. Dortmund
2/19 Liverpool v. Bayern Munich
2/24 Manchester United v. Liverpool
2/28 Chelsea v. Tottenham
3/2 North London Derby, Merseyside Derby, & El Classico
3/5 Dortmund v. Tottenham
3/9 Arsenal v. Manchester United
3/13 Bayern Munich v. Liverpool
3/16 Manchester Derby
3/30 Liverpool v. Tottenham

The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: January 30, 2019 at 07:08 PM | 2068 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer

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   901. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 11, 2019 at 04:58 PM (#5830991)
538 only had it as 2.0-0.9 for Arsenal. They had the Chelsea game as a virtual draw, and they had Frankfurt outperforming Benfica (despite 10 men) aside from the penalty. Could have been a lot different today.
   902. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 11, 2019 at 05:48 PM (#5831010)
Caley had it as 2.2 to 0.6. Either way, the story during the game was that Arsenal missed a big opportunity to put the tie away at 3-0. In reality, 2-0 is a better than average result for that performance, and they are very well positioned to advance now.
   903. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 11, 2019 at 07:07 PM (#5831017)
I'm getting pretty tired of announcers repeatedly claiming that a team's "best chance" to make it to the CL next year is from winning the CL or Europa this year, especially when they are off by a factor of 2 and usually more. Arsenal today was another good example. Announcers kept saying that Europa may be their best chance, but they are being given about a 25% chance to win Europa (21% by 538) and are just over 50% for getting in via top 4, same odds as Chelsea. They aren't even an underdog in the EPL.

Unless a team is effectively eliminated in the domestic chase already, it's rarely true before the semis of the Europe competitions, and probably fairly rare even then.

For example, it's not true right now for Chelsea, Arsenal, Napoli, Frankfurt, Valencia (though this one is close), Benfica or even Prague (including qualifying rounds). It's only the case for Villarreal, who are striving to avoid relegation. Otherwise it takes a fairly unusual set of circumstances, such as Chelsea being the best team in Europa despite being (a couple weeks ago) 6th domestically.

In the CL, it's not true for any of the teams, and it isn't at all close for any of them either (Tottenham is closest at 6% via CL versus 75% via top 4.)
   904. spivey Posted: April 11, 2019 at 09:58 PM (#5831051)
The early statements are that Kane has significant ligament damage. I'd really like to see him shut it down for a few months and just skip the Nations League.

I have to admit I'm pretty worried about not finishing top 4 for Tottenham. Moura needs to step up - he's not done much since early in the season. Similar for Lamela, assuming he's even fit for Huddersfield.
   905. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 13, 2019 at 09:37 AM (#5831432)
No Kane?

No problem ... mostly ... and it was 'uddersfield, but still, all of Spurs goals were lovely and they could have had a couple more.

Who knew Spaghetti Vic had feet that quick?
   906. Jose is Absurdly Unemployed Posted: April 13, 2019 at 10:21 AM (#5831436)
Harvey Elliott is on the Fulham bench. 16 years, 9 days old and if he plays he will be the youngest ever EPL player.
   907. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 13, 2019 at 10:30 AM (#5831439)
Moura needs to step up - he's not done much since early in the season.


Will that do?
   908. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 11:30 AM (#5831446)
So after going 5-0 last week, the 7th through 11th best teams (probably) could easily go 0-5 this week. 3 winnable games are already lost or almost lost, with Watford hosting Arsenal and Palace hosting City still to come.

If these scores hold up, Cardiff is virtually dead, with only Brighton within realistic reach.
   909. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 12:30 PM (#5831455)
Wolves started well today, but ended up getting slaughtered and it could have been even worse. They're kind of a confounding team. 538 hasn't much liked them all year, and now has them 11th, only a tad better than a bunch of other teams: Southampton, Newcastle, Bournemouth and Burnley. I think they are better than that, but they really haven't been anything special in the second half of the season. Now with an xG of 0 for the second half.
   910. spivey Posted: April 13, 2019 at 01:44 PM (#5831476)
Man U is getting bossed by West Ham in the middle of the park. Man U’s back line also looks shaky.
   911. spivey Posted: April 13, 2019 at 01:57 PM (#5831479)
Declan Rice is awesome
   912. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:06 PM (#5831481)
How was that not a red on Fredericks?
   913. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:10 PM (#5831483)
Went for the ball. No DOGSO in the box unless there is no genuine attempt to play the ball, because the penalty is deemed to be enough punishment in that case. They changed this rule a few years ago. Looked like the right call.

You rarely see a red now in the box in these situations, but it happened in the Frankfurt Europa game, probably deservedly, for a shove in the back.
   914. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:15 PM (#5831486)
Ah, I'd forgotten about the rule change, doh!

Thanks.
   915. spivey Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:24 PM (#5831489)
I don’t see how OGS is the long term answer at Man U, but I’m glad we’ve probably got an extra year or two of Poch.
   916. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5831491)
United was not good today. This was supposed to be a gimme considering how bad West Ham have been of late. The top 4 chase was really supposed to depend on getting wins over Everton on the road and Chelsea at home, both far harder games. Based on this performance it doesn't seem promising.
   917. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:33 PM (#5831495)
Well, pretty clear Poch isn't going anywhere this summer at this point, next summer will probably depend on what kind of investment in transfers Levy is willing to make in the next 12 months.
   918. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:35 PM (#5831497)
United had the better of xG easily if you count both penalties and don't give West Ham credit for the goal called of by offside. If you just reverse those two calls, xG would have favored West Ham by a little. United certainly didn't play well enough to earn more than a draw, and considering they were at home against a below average team, in a must win situation when the other team had nothing to play for... that's very bad.
   919. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 02:39 PM (#5831500)
Looks like something quite similar happened in the Dortmund game. Lost the xG battle despite playing a bad team at home, with the opponents playing for nothing. With Dortmund up 2-1, understat had Mainz missing a sitter in the 86th minute. xG = .96!!. I'd like to see a replay of that one.

edit: apparently a triple save.
   920. Mefisto Posted: April 13, 2019 at 03:15 PM (#5831507)
United's weaknesses were on full display today. It was a heavily rotated lineup, but the quality really isn't there even taking their lack of depth into account. Rojo isn't a left back; Dalot isn't a right back. But the number of giveaways was staggering, and many of them came from people you wouldn't expect like Mata.
   921. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5831509)
Rojo giving so much space behind him on the West Ham goal when he knew the player was there (he looked at him twice) was particularly weak. He was cheating towards the center of the field, when there were already other defenders there--it wasn't a situation where he had to choose between two evils, his positioning was just bad.
   922. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5831513)
Nobody will watch, because the game is being played at the same midweek timeslot as the CL matchups, but this Brighton/Cardiff game is huge. Cardiff almost certainly needs a win and probably also a win at Fulham, and then a bit of luck with the remaining fixtures. A draw probably puts them down and a loss definitely does.

Most of Brighton's other remaining games are hard: at Wolves, Tottenham and Arsenal, and home to City. The only really winnable game is the home game against Newcastle.

Cardiff's other games (aside from Fulham) are away to City, and home to Liverpool and Palace.
   923. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 13, 2019 at 04:07 PM (#5831520)
Absolutely ridiculous handball penalty given in the Milan game. VAR should reverse. The game is huge, and a draw hurts both teams in the 4-way battler for the last CL spot. So naturally the score is still 0-0 late.

edit: and now a Lazio player tries to push the boundaries of the shoulder charge leeway given to defenders way beyond reason. Easy penalty call.
   924. spivey Posted: April 13, 2019 at 08:16 PM (#5831617)
United had the better of xG easily if you count both penalties and don't give West Ham credit for the goal called of by offside.

Fair, though 538 has the nonshot xG in West Ham’s favor and the individual brilliance seemed to be as well with Anderson being the player of the match for me and Antonio’s shot being off the crossbar. They also had a bunch of headers into the 6 yard mixer, that didn’t fall kindly today but on average I feel like one of those or more can/would lead to a big xG chance.
   925. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 14, 2019 at 09:29 AM (#5831689)
That Debruyne/Sterling goal was so quick and clinical. On top of all the other stuff City does well, when they do that too they are unbeatable.

The defender may not have been in the perfect position, but it's so hard to be perfectly positioned all game. The run, pass and shot were all so sublime that even a little gap in the defense was vulnerable.
   926. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 14, 2019 at 11:07 AM (#5831693)
Bayern may have slipped a tad this year, but they're showing no evidence of it domestically. Cruising again today, and their domestic xGD is higher per game is higher than the last few years.'
Dortmund is the opposite. By xG at least they are performing worse domestically than they did last year, which was already a down year for them, and on a par with 2015, when they finished 7th in the Bundesliga (with a bit of bad luck).
   927. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 14, 2019 at 12:55 PM (#5831706)
Hazard missed two great chances within two minutes.
   928. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 14, 2019 at 01:05 PM (#5831710)
Are Liverpool fans really that insufferable?

Online reaction from places like CFC and the Guardian MBM seem to suggest that, but a) I don't really know any Liverpool fans and b)I like Salah and Klopp and c) I kinda have a soft spot in my heart for them since they were the 2nd team I played in FM.

The "what outcome do we root for" question over this match on the match thread on CFC has been amusing ... seemingly coming down to: can't root for Liverpool to win, have to root for Chelsea to lose!
   929. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 14, 2019 at 01:12 PM (#5831711)
A draw wouldn't have been a great result for either team, so they could've rooted for that. Liverpool fans are going to find themselves on the other side of this one in 10 days, in the Manchester Derby. That's City's most likely opportunity to drop points. Liverpool fans can root for a draw, if they want some turnabout.

Speaking of draws, fewest by a team in an EPL season is 3. Tottenham still has just the one, and City only has two. That record seems likely to be broken.
   930. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 14, 2019 at 01:19 PM (#5831713)
The question of a draw was mooted, but a Chelsea loss is clearly better for Spurs, since the battle now is for a CL place, not winning the PL and every dropped point could matter.
   931. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 14, 2019 at 02:00 PM (#5831722)
The ManU/Chelsea game in 2 weeks is shaping up as an elimination game. A draw probably eliminates both. The winner is not guaranteed to make the top 4 either.
   932. spivey Posted: April 14, 2019 at 03:20 PM (#5831740)
A couple of my best friends are 'Pool fans. They aren't too obnoxious, though the the fans have the exuberance you'd expect from fans who have gone a long time since silverware and are now a top 3-5 team in the world. I do think Liverpool fans can be a bit sanctimonious as well, thinking that they're the good guys as compared to City (and United/Chelsea). They're not entirely wrong, but to much of the footballing clubs in the world, it's a measure of degree, not difference.

Still a lot of the season left. It could happen, but I think it's unlikely both teams win out. Liverpool has been a bit shaky the last month or two, still getting results but they didn't really outplay Tottenham or Chelsea at home imo. Granted, they still got wins, and those are very good teams, so you will take the win any way you can get it.

City in particular has a ridiculously tough run-in. Tottenham, @Man U, Leicester, and @Burnley. All with fixture congestion.
   933. spivey Posted: April 14, 2019 at 03:25 PM (#5831741)
Also, since it didn't get a shout here, that Salah goal was one of the goals of the season. I think he's the best player in the EPL, though there are a number of guys pretty close.
   934. jmurph Posted: April 14, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5831743)
Yeah that Salah goal was ridiculous, just seemed out of nowhere when it happened. I don't see the case for best player, though, I think it's tough for a pure scorer to take that crown when so many other guys do so much more.
   935. Mefisto Posted: April 14, 2019 at 04:13 PM (#5831753)
I'm partial to defenders, but for me the POY would be VVD.
   936. Sean Forman Posted: April 14, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5831831)
Agreed on VVD.

Looks like City might be getting KDB back in form just in time. Two assists today. Just need get through Wednesday with a 2-0 win.
   937. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 14, 2019 at 07:12 PM (#5831834)
Liverpool's schedule is pretty easy, and they probably are 40-50% to win out. If they win out, they likely win the title because City's schedule is much harder--their chance of beating both Spurs and United is only around the same 40-50%.

If Liverpool drops any points at all though, they likely won't win the title. Even a single draw would mean that City could drop 3 points and still take the title on GD. It's probably too much to hope for that City slips up twice, though you never know of course.
   938. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 14, 2019 at 07:57 PM (#5831845)
Salah's fallow period probably keeps him from being POY, but he's definitely one of the best players in England (and the world). VVD has been amazing all season, and given how Liverpool has the #1 defense in the league this year after being leaky as heck last year (and also they got a lot better once he came over in the winter last year) I'd have to give it to him.

I'm hoping Liverpool wins out, and puts the pressure on City. I'm also hoping City go 2-1 v. Tottenham in the 2nd leg of the CL quarters, because they're the only team I think who would beat Liverpool 6 times out of 10 in the semis or final.
   939. The Marksist Posted: April 15, 2019 at 08:47 AM (#5831890)
I'm hoping Liverpool wins out, and puts the pressure on City. I'm also hoping City go 2-1 v. Tottenham in the 2nd leg of the CL quarters, because they're the only team I think who would beat Liverpool 6 times out of 10 in the semis or final.


Do you mean City is the only team you see taking 6/10, or Spurs? I think both match-ups are pretty close, really. Spurs tend to play Liverpool close, and City are pretty clearly the better team without actually dominating this year's fixtures. In a one-off at a neutral site, I think both are close to even, with Liverpool slight favorites over Spurs and slight dogs to City.

Oh, and the semifinal match-ups are already determined and 'Pool get United/Barca if they advance. So they couldn't see either Spurs or City until the finals.
   940. spivey Posted: April 15, 2019 at 09:11 AM (#5831893)
I didn't mean that Salah was the EPL POY, I'd probably give that to one of Hazard/Sterling/Bernardo, but more if I was going to build a team for a year and could only draft EPL players, I think I'd take him first.

Van Dijk has been great, though I generally feel like world class attackers are worth more. I also think their fullbacks, goalkeeper, and midfield are all very good and pretty defensive. I think the cult of VVD has almost gotten too big, even acknowledging he's the best CB in the world. He's not infallible.
   941. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 15, 2019 at 10:22 AM (#5831928)
I meant that I'd expect City to take 6 of 10 from Liverpool. And that's about the only team in the world, with the possible exception of Barcelona, I can say that about right now. Which gives you an idea of how much I'm stanning for Liverpool AND how good they've gotten that it's not an immediately crazy take.
   942. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 12:57 PM (#5832026)
6 out of 10 in a one-off sounds abut my guess for what the betting odds would be. Barcelona would be lower, but still favored over Liverpool.

Since it would be over two legs against Barcelona, the odds for the favorite go up slightly (more time means the favorite will win more often). Still my guess is below the one-off odds City would get as favorite.

Fun with ELO: City at their highest ever at 2011 points. Still haven't caught Barca yet though. Liverpool just hit 2000 for the first time in their history. I don't know if it's ELO drift (it gets easier to get higher ELOs over time, all other things being equal, if there is no correction factor) or if it's just that in the last decade the megabastard teams have set a new standard for dominance, which is now being reflected in Liverpool's performance and ELO, but the highest point before this for Liverpool was in 2009, when they had about 1980 points. Before that you have to go back to 1990 and 1979, when they had about 1960 points.
   943. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 15, 2019 at 02:25 PM (#5832074)
From the Guardian MBM ahead of today's match:

Good stat from Bill Edgar in the Times this morning: if Watford do not beat Arsenal tonight it will ensure that this will be the first top-flight case of three seasons in a row with the same teams filling the top six places (in any order).
   944. jmurph Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:05 PM (#5832091)
Hmmm, reacting to that, I'm more surprised that it hasn't happened before?
   945. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:13 PM (#5832094)
Three seasons in a row is a lot for 6 teams. You need a very strong top 6 for that. It seems like it's been forever, but it really hasn't.

Watford imploding. Howler by Foster (and well-played by Auba) and now an elbow red. Top 6 is set.
   946. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5832095)
No kidding. Bad, bad, bad 2 minutes for the Hornet Mooses.
   947. I am going to be Frank Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:38 PM (#5832105)
So Watford were better before the goal and sending off and they've been better since the sending off. I fully expect Arsenal to score another one and then give up one to make it nerve wracking and then Arsenal will finish them off.
   948. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 15, 2019 at 03:49 PM (#5832109)
From the Graun MBM:


25 mins: Key Deeney quote here, from last season’s “cojones” rant. “Let me whack the first one and see who wants it,” is a perfectly decent tactic, unless the referee spots it:

I have to watch what I say, but it’s [having] a bit of cojones, is what I’ll say. Whenever I play against Arsenal, I’ll go up and think ‘let me whack the first one and see who wants it.’



Ooops.
   949. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 04:29 PM (#5832131)
Atalanta had 34 shots, 18 on goal. Empoli had 3 shots. 0-0, and now Atalanta is a longshot for top 4.

edit: understat had it at 5.06-0.22. Shot chart is outrageous.
edit2: 538 had it even higher, at 5.9 - 0.2
   950. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 15, 2019 at 04:52 PM (#5832145)
Boy Arsenal were terrible against 10 men.
   951. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5832146)
Seriously.

edit: xG was quite kind to them. Even without Auba's goal they had more xG by a fair margin. non-xG as well. They sure looked terrible though.
   952. Sean Forman Posted: April 15, 2019 at 05:46 PM (#5832170)
I know there are some NWSL fans here, so I'll point out that we've added a big women's soccer section to fbref.com.

Also just launched Portuguese, German, and french today (along with Finnish league stats, not that anyone anywhere cares about that)

https://www.sports-reference.com/blog/2019/04/fbref-com-adds-comprehensive-womens-world-cup-and-womens-club-data/

Match results should start rolling onto the site this week or next. Will take a bit to produce all of the different views.
   953. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 06:43 PM (#5832183)
The stats actually say 47 shots for Atalanta.

BBC: No team in Europe's top five leagues have ever attempted more efforts, and shots on target, in a game since those stats were first recorded in 2006-07. That's not just teams who have failed to score; that's in every single game.
   954. Baldrick Posted: April 15, 2019 at 07:01 PM (#5832189)
I know there are some NWSL fans here, so I'll point out that we've added a big women's soccer section to fbref.com.

Yeah, very excited. Great works, as always.

My friend emailed recently. She does some data work on the league and has a ton of the stats from previous years, which hopefully will be compatible.
   955. Mefisto Posted: April 15, 2019 at 07:22 PM (#5832193)
Sean, adding the women's soccer is just great. Thanks!
   956. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 15, 2019 at 07:51 PM (#5832199)
Current top 4 odds:
Spurs 76%
Arsenal 63%
Chelsea 36% (now same as odds of winning Europa)
United 25%
   957. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:52 PM (#5832498)
Think I will go with Juve - Ajax, and keep an eye on the other score. If United look like they can actually make a game of it, I might switch over.

Also, today on "Real Headline or Onion Headline?": Wayne Hennessey did not know what Nazi salute was - FA panel
(I support clicking on that link if just for the picture)
   958. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 02:53 PM (#5832499)
Also, also, I think I may have killed the NBA thread. Somebody might want to look into that. But as a result, I will try and shut up here, to keep this one alive for you...
   959. jmurph Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:16 PM (#5832508)
Also, also, I think I may have killed the NBA thread. Somebody might want to look into that. But as a result, I will try and shut up here, to keep this one alive for you...

Ha, I assume it just timed out, that's happened before.
   960. Baldrick Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:30 PM (#5832520)
Leo Messi is pretty good IMO.
   961. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:32 PM (#5832522)
So much for United.

And now Ajax have conceded.

Gah.
   962. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:34 PM (#5832523)
Well this evening could not be going worse. When does Sox / Yankees start?
   963. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:36 PM (#5832525)
Shame about the De Gea play, but at least it was in a situation where they had little chance to advance (under 5% after that first goal.

And now Juve with a defensive error playing a man well-onside for an easy goal. Nice!
   964. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5832526)
C'mon Ajax!
   965. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:37 PM (#5832528)
When does Sox / Yankees start?


3 hours.
   966. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:46 PM (#5832532)
Shame about the De Gea play, but at least it was in a situation where they had little chance to advance (under 5% after that first goal.



The first Messi goal was so beatiful that it probably should've been worth more than one anyway. De Gea's whiff just evened things out.
   967. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:48 PM (#5832533)
Well, now De Gea made an amazing save that makes up for his miss earlier. So Messi is back to being hard done by only getting the one goal.
   968. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5832540)
Cardiff is up 2-0. Still a relegation battle after all!
   969. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 03:58 PM (#5832542)
I am by no means counting my chickens, I expect Tottenham to be put to the ultimate test by City tomorrow, and even if they get by have no cakewalk in the semis regardless of who they play. But a semifinal draw of Juve or Ajax is much more straightforward than the Barcelona/Liverpool bloodbath will be.
   970. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:22 PM (#5832551)
Szxvszxvny denies Ajax AGAIN!
   971. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:28 PM (#5832555)
Ajax still on the front foot; they're going to kick themselves if they don't come away with the win here.

AND AS I TYPE THAT ...

Gooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooal!

   972. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5832556)
And now Juve need two. #### and yes, Ajax.
   973. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:30 PM (#5832557)
The first Messi goal was so beatiful that it probably should've been worth more than one anyway. De Gea's whiff just evened things out.

Juve need 2 now.

Been watching Juve/Ajax, but saw the goals at halftime. It was a brilliant finish by Messi. But what the #### was Young doing there in position. Jesus Christ.
   974. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5832558)
C'mon Ajax ... sweep the leg!
   975. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:31 PM (#5832559)
Juve need 2 in 20 minutes! Not that you would exactly put that beyond the grasp of Ronaldo...
   976. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5832561)
I think Ajax is more likely to score another than Juve score 2, the way this half has been going ...
   977. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:34 PM (#5832562)
By the way, I have decided that my pet peeve is now "announcers who don't understand the away goals rule."

In the first half, after Juve went up 1:0 we got "could this be the goal that puts them through to the semi finals!!11!!1". And like, no it couldn't. There is literally no way it could. If Ajax scores they need another one, and if they don't they are through without it.

Now it's been 5 minutes since the goal, and nobody has mentioned that Juve need 2...

(another 'favourite' is the away team going up 0:1 late in the first leg, followed by sermons about how important it is to get that "away goal." When there is no way they can go through on away goals when winning 0:1)

ETA: Somebody mentioned Juve need 2 finally. Whew.
   978. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:35 PM (#5832563)
Oh no! That was a golden chance to kill the game off!
   979. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:37 PM (#5832565)
I mentioned to a friend earlier today that this pair of games had the potential to be very big for people who love/hate Messi/Ronaldo. Shaping up very well for the pro-Messi crowd so far.
   980. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:39 PM (#5832569)
Man, Ajax are repeatedly declining shots in good places. Go for goal!
   981. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:41 PM (#5832571)
Damn pity this Ajax team is going to get torn apart this summer, they show no fear and are a delight to watch.

To VAR ... for the tie!

Damn ... offsides.
   982. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:43 PM (#5832573)
I think Ajax is more likely to score another than Juve score 2, the way this half has been going ...


I agree, except I think Ajax is more likely to score two more than Juve is to score even one more.
   983. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5832574)
Pet peeve number 2:
Going to VAR, and then showing 80 seconds of a close up of the referees face, rather than showing a fucking replay of the play!!!!
   984. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:44 PM (#5832575)
Ajax are just tearing Juve apart. I still somewhat expect Ronaldo to sneak this one for Juve somehow.
   985. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:50 PM (#5832579)
I was going to say what's crazy is that Ajax aren't even leading the Eredivisie, but they are now (on GD). PSV has dropped 5 points in their last 4 games, of course one of those was a road loss to Ajax.
   986. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5832580)
Oh look, more pictures of the referee. I wonder what happened. If only there was a way to show us.
   987. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:53 PM (#5832581)
I wanted to think that was not a penalty on the handball by Blind, but it looks like it should've been.

edit- another angle and... maybe not. I don't know.
   988. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:55 PM (#5832583)
I have essentially no faith in Tottenham holding on tomorrow. But if they do, we get a CL semifinal between Tottenham and Ajax.
   989. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 04:57 PM (#5832584)
Ajax is through!!!

Suck it Juve!

Suck it Ronaldo!
   990. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:02 PM (#5832585)
Ajax is through!!!

Suck it Juve!

Suck it Ronaldo!


+1
   991. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:12 PM (#5832588)
I wanted to think that was not a penalty on the handball by Blind, but it looks like it should've been.

edit- another angle and... maybe not. I don't know.


Once I saw a good replay, it looked like it went off Blind's stomach/chest. Good call.
   992. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:24 PM (#5832592)
Yeah, it did hit his arm, but it hit his torso first ...
   993. PepTech Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:29 PM (#5832594)
Ajax is through!!!

Suck it Juve!

Suck it Ronaldo!

+1
This can't be re-quoted enough.

+100
   994. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:35 PM (#5832595)
At least Juve can turn their attention to their red hot league race.
   995. spivey Posted: April 16, 2019 at 05:49 PM (#5832600)
Ajax won the xG 3.3-1.4 across the tie. Damn, son.
   996. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 06:01 PM (#5832604)
Spurs v Ajax would be a boatload of fun.

I think if Spurs can nick a goal, they'll advance and strangely enough I think they will do well enough without Kane up front. Moura and Son should give City's backline fits.

Now, if Dele can't go tomorrow, that might be the difference ...
   997. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: April 16, 2019 at 06:18 PM (#5832610)
Current odds to win CL:

Barca: 33%
City: 25%
Liverpool: 22%
Ajax: 12%
Tottenham: 8%

Those Liverpool odds are shockingly low, in my opinion. They should be only slight underdogs to Barca. Since they are 94% to advance over Porto, the gulf to Barca is actually quite large. I think both City and especially Barca are too high.

Interestingly the betting odds are now more favorable than 538 is on Ajax. It's because 538 loves Man City, Barca and Liverpool, and doesn't think any other team in the world is close to their league, other than Bayern.

Speaking of Bayern, aside from their shaky start early in the year, they've been very dominant except against Ajax and Liverpool (and they probably outplayed Ajax over two legs, though it was fairly close). That's not looking too shabby at the moment.
   998. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: April 16, 2019 at 06:47 PM (#5832618)
Disagree. Think Liverpool is about right. City is high, Ajax is low. Barca maybe slightly high, but not much.

Liverpool, if they get past Porto, are going to be slight underdogs to Barca. And probably about even for the finals. (slight underdogs for City, slight faves for Ajax or Spurs). Slightly less than a half, times a half, should add up to slightly less than a quarter. Especially when you factor in that they are not quite past Porto yet.

Barca at 33%, would be something like 58%*58%... which seems not unreasonable. Maybe slightly high, especially if they get City in the Finals. But not much.
   999. aberg Posted: April 16, 2019 at 06:55 PM (#5832622)
City is high


That was my reaction, too. They must be saying that IF they beat Spurs tomorrow, then they have an easier path to the final by going through Ajax than Barca or Liverpool would have against each other. Even if that's 80% (I don't think it is), and their 50/50 in the final, that would have to mean they're something close to 60% to overcome the Spurs lead tomorrow. I think it would be more like 40-50% tomorrow, 65% in the semis, 45% in the finals = ~13%.
   1000. It was something about the man-spider and sodomy, Posted: April 16, 2019 at 07:02 PM (#5832625)
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