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Tuesday, May 29, 2018

OT: Soccer Thread (World Cup)

We’ve gotten through Champions League and most of the relegation/promotion stuff so we may as well focus on the World Cup. And what a World Cup, Buffon playing his sixth, Pulisic making his WC debut, quality on-site reporting from Fox and two time Copa America champs Chile just part of what should make for an amazing tournament!  Plus of course the the family-friendly, inclusive atmosphere sure to be fostered by the Russians.

Group A - Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay
Group B - Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran
Group C - France, Australia, Peru, Denmark
Group D - Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria
Group E - Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia
Group F - Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea
Group G - Belgium, Panama, Tunisia, England
Group H - Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan

Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: May 29, 2018 at 09:57 AM | 3354 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, soccer

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   801. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:32 PM (#5698297)
I’ll flip with a repeat of this...

Group A: Uruguay plays Russia. Winner is first, loser is second, draw and Russia are first.

Group B: Spain v Morocco, Portugal v Iran

Spain and Portugal win; team with better GD is first
Spain and Portugal both draw; team with more goals is first, same number of goals and its fair play or drawing of lots
Spain or Portugal win, other team draws - team that wins is first, team that draws is second
Spain wins; Portugal loses: Spain first, Iran second
Spain draw; Portugal loses: Iran first, Spain second
Portugal wins; Spain loses: Portugal first, Spain second
Portugal draw, Spain loses: Portugal first, Spain second
EDIT: Spain and Portugal both lose; Iran first, Portugal and Spain go to goals for, then fair play then drawing of lots tie breakers.

Group C: France v Denmark, Peru v Australia

Denmark wins, Denmark first, France second
France win or draw, they finish first
France win or draw, Peru win or draw, France First, Denmark second
France win or draw, Australia win, goals for will be first tie breaker, then fair play and drawing of lots

Group D: Nigeria v Argentina, Croatia v Iceland

Croatia win or draw, Nigeria win or draw (any combination); Croatia first, Nigeria second
Croatia lose, Nigeria win ; Croatia first, Nigeria second unless Nigeria make up 5 goals in GD
Croatia lose, Nigeria draw; Croatia first, Iceland need to make up 3 goals in GD to finish ahead of Nigeria. If GD even between Iceland and Nigeria, Nigeria finish second
Croatia lose, Argentina win; Croatia first, Argentina need to make up 1 goal in GD to force goals scored, then fair play then drawing of lots tiebreakers

Group E: Serbia v Brazil, Costa Rica v Switzerland

Brazil and Switzerland both win; Swiss need to make up one goal of GD to force goals scored, then fair play then drawing of lots tiebreakers
Brazil and Swiss both draw; Brazil first, Swiss second
Brazil win, Costa Rica win; Brazil first, Swiss second
Brazil, Costa Rica win; Brazil first, Serbia need to make up one goal of GD to force goals scored, then fair play then drawing of lots tiebreakers
Brazil lose, Costa Rica win; Serbia first, Brazil second unless Swiss make up one goal of GD to force goals scored, then fair play then drawing of lots tiebreakers
Brazil lose, Costa Rica/Swiss Draw; Serbia first, Swiss second
   802. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 22, 2018 at 11:35 PM (#5698301)
Right now the good news is that there is no group where there is nothing to watch. All five groups have something to play for and only group A has both teams through.
   803. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 08:18 AM (#5698327)
Well, so far this match has been worth waking up at 5AM for!
   804. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 08:51 AM (#5698328)
That half was a blast; pity that Tunisia had to burn two subs on injuries though ...
   805. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 23, 2018 at 09:16 AM (#5698330)
This is a shame. Tunisia have been playing, not just sitting back and they’ve looked ok. Quality of finishers is the big difference here.
   806. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 09:18 AM (#5698331)
That goal was just fantastic from Hazard.
   807. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 09:58 AM (#5698334)
MOAR matches like that please!
   808. McCoy Posted: June 23, 2018 at 10:57 AM (#5698338)
Oh god, this game is being announced by the worst pair of announcers I have ever heard in any sport at any level in my entire history of watching sports.
   809. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:01 AM (#5698340)
Belgium was great, but as a neutral I don't care for games like that, as there is no drama. To be honest, I would have preferred it if Tunisia had played much less open game. I intentionally watched it at the gym as I didn't expect it to be close.
   810. Jose is an Absurd Force of Nature Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:02 AM (#5698341)
IIIIIIIIIIIIIIT’S SOCCER TIME!!!!
   811. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:12 AM (#5698343)
South Korea fouling like crazy early.
   812. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:28 AM (#5698348)
Some good end to end action and this has the feel of a potential blowout. Hopefully Son gets a goal back.
   813. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:29 AM (#5698349)
That's the 14th penalty given in the tournament so far. If all fouls as bad about as obvious as the ones that have been called were also called, we'd have had at least twice that number.

3 have been missed. 11/14 is a pretty standard conversion rate for penalties during the course of play.
   814. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5698350)
Has South Korea regressed as a soccer nation? They don't look like they belong at all so far.

These Mexican (I assume they're Mexican) announcers are awful.
   815. Dale Sams Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5698351)
Oh god, this game is being announced by the worst pair of announcers I have ever heard in any sport at any level in my entire history of watching sports.


"FIRRRRREEEE!!!!"
   816. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:35 AM (#5698352)
Just uttered on the FOX broadcast ... "So far, no homophobic chants!"
   817. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5698353)
That was the last straw. I switched to Telemundo. They sound less biased.
   818. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5698354)
Son is so fast
   819. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5698355)
There’s a lot to like about the Mexico team. The announcers not so much.
   820. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 11:51 AM (#5698356)
Mexico didn't look great in that first half at all. Better than South Korea, sure, but South Korea had their chances as well.

I expect Mexico to try to get one or two more goals in the second half. GD could end up mattering a lot in this group; if Germany can beat Sweden they'll almost certainly take care of South Korea, and at that point if Sweden beats Mexico it would come down to GD.
   821. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:12 PM (#5698358)
South Korea has gotten in way more dangerous spots than you’d expect from a team with their passing stats.
   822. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:13 PM (#5698359)
Yeah, these announcers are... not great. And they're so, so in the bag for Mexico.

Just uttered on the FOX broadcast ... "So far, no homophobic chants!"


I laughed. No piss bags either!
   823. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:14 PM (#5698360)
South Korea has gotten in way more dangerous spots than you’d expect from a team with their passing stats.


Mexico has been stringing together a lot of passes and then turns it over in tons of space with a really poor pass.
   824. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:18 PM (#5698361)
The hold up play has been good from Son and #11 on Korea.
   825. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5698362)
It’s a shame when you have to mute a sporting event.
   826. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:24 PM (#5698363)
The game really opened up in the last 10 minutes (well, before this long delay, anyway). If it stays that way Mexico could grab a couple more goals. South Korea might even score.

edit: oops, almost posted too late.
   827. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:26 PM (#5698364)
Arg. Clear foul to start that break. Never should have happened.
   828. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5698365)
Mexico looks much better on the counter attack. Ironically, if they win the group, they could end up playing Switzerland in the round of 16. That might not be the best match-up for them.
   829. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5698367)
I get wanting to set up Son there but that one dude just needed to rip it.
   830. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:34 PM (#5698368)
Jeez, it's very surprising South Korea hasn't scored today.
   831. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5698371)
Mexico has allowed South Korea to get in dangerous spots but their cover has been good. Good doubling on Son when needed and they’ve blocked most shots.
   832. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5698372)
Mexico a very likable team now that Marquez is just an old guy on the bench.
   833. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:46 PM (#5698373)
I predict Mexico loses in the round of 16. Not impressed.

Also, there's still a chance Mexico could face Brazil in the round of 16.
   834. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:51 PM (#5698376)
That was a nice shot, but the party pooper in me says Ochoa should have gotten to it.
   835. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5698377)
I predict Mexico loses in the round of 16. Not impressed.

Only a few teams have been impressive in both games (Croatia, Russia, Belgium) and two of them haven’t played a good team. But yes if they play like this against a good team in knockouts they’re in trouble.
   836. spivey Posted: June 23, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5698378)
I think that shot was unsaveable. Also think the goalie was pretty blocked on seeing the shot come out.
   837. , Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5698379)
That’s true of anyone, isn’t it? Play bad against a good team you’re likely to lose.

You guys shouldn’t listen to announcers in Latin America. The goal of dispassionate, calm, objective analysis isn’t their thing. I prefer it. No one watches a game with no rooting interest. If they’re lined up ahaiiyou, it provides a target for ire.
   838. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5698380)
So, if Germany wins (still a big IF, since we don't know what Germany is going to show up today), and Germany takes care of South Korea (very likely), then at worst their GD would be +1, and likely better. If Sweden loses to Germany but beats Mexico, both by one goal, it would come down to goals scored between Mexico and Sweden.

Mexico is in very good shape still, but by no means guaranteed to advance.
   839. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5698381)
That’s true of anyone, isn’t it? Play bad against a good team you’re likely to lose.
Absolutely. But is Mexico actually a good team, or were they just able to take advantage of Germany's tactical failure? I say the latter.
   840. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5698382)
That was a nice shot, but the party pooper in me says Ochoa should have gotten to it.


Come on, man, that was a banger.
   841. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5698387)
Wow, Low is benching Ozil?
   842. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5698389)
If Germany does bomb out of the tournament, this is how it happens, with the team separating into camps and favoritism shown to the Bavarians.
   843. Dale Sams Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:24 PM (#5698390)
Mexico is in very good shape still, but by no means guaranteed to advance.


Id much rather see some kind of playoff if a 6 point team is knocked out then see a 48 team field.

Whens the last time since wins became worth 3 points, a 6 point team didnt advance?
   844. Dale Sams Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:35 PM (#5698392)
I feel like this has been a very enjoyable WC thus far. A long ways off from the corruption-fest simulationpalooza of 2002. I feel like the refs are mostly doing a good job.

Maybe lower the bar a teeny bit on 'hand in unconventional place' PK calls. I like the way i heard it framed today. "A defender intentionally making himself bigger to block the shot"
   845. Textbook Editor Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5698393)
Mexico is in very good shape still, but by no means guaranteed to advance.


Well... Should Sweden win, not only would both Mexico and Sweden advance today, Germany would be going home and have a dead-rubber 3rd game... Wonder what the odds on that would have been before the tournament.

Lot riding on this Sweden game. Germany pretty much has to win.
   846. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5698395)
The last time it happened was 1994, when amazingly two groups of 4 finished with 3 teams on 6 points each. However, that year all 3 teams in each group advanced, because the format that year allowed the best third place teams to advance.

edit: that's actually the only time it happened in the WC, since it moved to 3 points for a win.

edit2: Algeria was eliminated in 1982 under the same circumstances, each of West Germany, Austria, and Algeria beat Chile, and each beat one of the other two. Algeria got eliminated on group GD.
   847. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5698398)
I like these moves by Germany. Not sure it will work, but I think it's the right idea.
   848. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5698399)
You guys are right - I thought Ochoa was a little slow to react, but no that was just a great shot. .
   849. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5698400)
That was a nice break, but it was nothing like the breaks in the Mexico game, where there were wide open spaces. Germany seemed to have much better cover there.
   850. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5698401)
The worst result for Mexico in this game is a 1-goal Germany win. Of all the possible permutations, a 1-goal Germany is actually probably the most likely.
   851. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5698404)
That sure looks like a penalty to me. Much more so than half of the actual penalties I've seen. He had a clear open shot in front of him, dude behind him bashed him with the forearm and kicked his shin.
   852. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5698405)
Germany got away with one.
   853. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5698406)
They could have called that as a penalty. That was more a penalty than the Griezmann and the handballs (South Korea and Denmark). Even with my high standard, that one was borderline. I think if VAR called down to the ref, he probably would have given the penalty.

edit: in my opinion, also more a penalty than the Ronaldo one or the Iceland one. That's about half the ones that were given, actually.

edit2: but not as much as the muggings on Harry Kane and Mitrovic.
   854. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5698407)
Germany's defenders look unsettled.
   855. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5698408)
I'm not sure that Germany is giving the same kind of breaks as the last game though, at least not yet. That shoulda beena penalty came off of a terrible giveaway by Boateng who was almost the last man. It didn't come off a clearance by the defense.
   856. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5698410)
What sucks about soccer is that as soon as the Swedish forward got the ball with nobody between him and the goal, I said to myself "this will be a penalty or a should-be penalty," I knew there was almost no chance that we would see the one-on-one that he earned and we deserved.
   857. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5698411)
Just a piece of magic there. What a shot to beat Neuer.
   858. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5698412)
Superb finish.
   859. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5698413)
Man, Sweden have had to throw up some last ditch defending. It has worked so far, but surely it can't last.

Though I was amused at Müller going hulk-mode on the ref for not calling a penalty... apparently for the Swedish defender having the audacity to play the ball.
   860. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5698414)
How well does possession % correlate with goal margin? It seems like we've seen a lot of success so far with teams like Sweden that keep getting compressed down towards their goal, but successfully clog everything up for the opponent, and then unleash wild counterattacks.
   861. strong silence Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5698416)
Let Boateng have the ball works for Sweden. Germany should get him out or have Kroos should come get it.
   862. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5698417)
Great half right there. Super fun.
   863. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5698418)
This match could very easily have been 3-0 at the half.
   864. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5698419)
This match could very easily have been 3-0 at the half.

Could have easily been 3-3 honestly.
   865. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 02:54 PM (#5698421)
Could have easily been 3-3 honestly.


Yes, but it's more fun to recklessly speculate about Germany bombing out.
   866. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5698423)
How well does possession % correlate with goal margin? It seems like we've seen a lot of success so far with teams like Sweden that keep getting compressed down towards their goal, but successfully clog everything up for the opponent, and then unleash wild counterattacks.

At high levels it's a pretty good leading indicator, but not that deterministic in itself. IIRC the team with more possession is around 45/20/35% W/D/L. That obviously doesn't account for how much they are winning possession by of course, which would be interesting to look at.
   867. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5698424)
Yes, but it's more fun to recklessly speculate about Germany bombing out.


Uh, they're in legit danger. A draw means that they have to beat SK (not hard) and Sweden needs to lose to a Mexico that has nothing to play for.

Could have easily been 3-3 honestly.


I missed the first 10 minutes, but I didn't see more than one really great German chance. Though if someone wants to say it could very easily be 2-2 I don't think I'd disagree.
   868. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:05 PM (#5698425)
Ok, now they're in a lot less danger.
   869. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:08 PM (#5698427)
I missed the first 10 minutes, but I didn't see more than one really great German chance. Though if someone wants to say it could very easily be 2-2 I don't think I'd disagree.

Germany missed a complete sitter in the first 10 though. Hit the only defender on the goalline from 10 yards out.
   870. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5698428)
Gettin' chippy!
   871. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5698429)
I wish I had a chippy! But I did just throw some chicken wings in the oven.
   872. tshipman Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5698430)
One of the most entertaining 1-1 games you'll ever see. Has everything.
   873. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5698431)
I want half by half xgoals, because this has been an entirely different game since the restart.
   874. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5698432)
Sweden look like they desperately need some fresh legs, to try and keep some pressure on Germany, and some threat on the break.
   875. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5698433)
Timo Verner has been really, ridiculously good this half. But he's getting so much space to operate down the left side.
   876. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5698435)
Btw, this match provides ample evidence that bringing Neuer back as the starting keeper despite all that time missed due to injury was the right decision. He's hardly put a foot wrong all night.
   877. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5698436)
It's Werner btw. German W is pronounced like an English V.
   878. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5698437)
Boateng is really ####### lucky he didn't just get sent off.
   879. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5698438)
Assistant Reffed! Germany down to 10!
   880. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5698439)
Well, that's going to crimp Ze Germans' style ...
   881. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5698440)
This Boateng character is too flamboyant for his own good.
   882. J. Sosa Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5698441)
Ballsy call on the card. Correct call.
   883. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5698442)
Was just going to say, Boateng should be off.
   884. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:45 PM (#5698443)
He was playing way too much offense anyway. Clearly thinks he's actually a midfielder.
   885. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5698444)
Good pace on the header, but straight at the keeper. Really should be able to put it a yard to either side and bury it.
   886. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5698445)
Boateng has always been offense first.
   887. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5698447)
5 minutes is outrageous. Has been nothing close to justifying that.
   888. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:50 PM (#5698448)
Denied by the post!
   889. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:51 PM (#5698449)
Damn this game has been exceptionally entertaining.
   890. McCoy Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5698450)
Holy cow!
   891. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5698451)
WHAT A GOAL
   892. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5698452)
That was amazing.
   893. J. Sosa Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5698453)
Bah.
   894. PreservedFish Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5698454)
Holy ####
   895. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5698455)
That game was insane. I could barely watch it, it was so tense.
   896. strong silence Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5698456)
Sweden needed to be smarter.
   897. sardonic Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5698458)
Brutal for Sweden there.
   898. McCoy Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5698459)
I usually don't root for Germany but when Sweden basically gave up any real attempt at winning this game when they went up a man I started rooting for them. Play until the whistle blows and if you don't please regret it.
   899. AuntBea calls himself Sky Panther Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5698460)
Sweden's hearts are broken, but they still have a good shot to make the next round. Even if Germany beats South Korea, I think any win by Sweden gives them the nod over Mexico.
   900. Fancy Crazy Town Banana Pants Handle Posted: June 23, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5698461)
Blegh, knew it as soon as I saw the '5'. That game should have been over after 2-3 minutes of added time, at 1-1.
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