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Wednesday, August 01, 2012

OTP- August 2012: The Leader Post: New stadium won’t have same appeal, says Bill ‘Spaceman’ Lee

“Building a new stadium down the street does not work unless (Ron) Lancaster spilled some DNA in the lot where they’re going to build the new stadium,” he added. “You have to refurbish (Mosaic Stadium). You’ve got to can all new ideas you might have and use the sacred ground. Fenway did that and that is why Fenway is loved. The new Yankee Stadium isn’t the same as it used to be.”

The former Boston Red Sox and Montreal Expos pitcher will not be running for the vacant mayor’s position in Regina later this year. With his opinion on the new stadium, he wasn’t sure he would garner many votes anyway. But that is nothing new to the former member of the Rhinoceros Party. Lee ran on the Rhino ticket in 1988 for president of the United States. Not surprisingly, he didn’t make the ballot in a single state. He said one of the high-ranking members within the party gave him a six-pack of Molson Canadian and asked him to run for president.

“I adhered to their funny philosophy,” Lee said. “My campaign slogan was ‘No guns, no butter. They’ll both kill you.’ And I only campaigned in federal prisons where I knew they couldn’t vote, and I only accepted a quarter in campaign contributions.”

With it being an election year in the U.S., Lee said he is all in for the re-election of Barack Obama.

“The only time (Mitt) Romney opens his mouth is when he needs to change feet,” Lee said of the Republican nominee. “If Obama does lose this, which I can’t see happening, then it’s because of a lady in Florida who works for Jeb Bush and Diebold, the voting-machine company. If Obama even comes close to losing this election, it’ll be fraud.”

Guess what, its the new OT politics thread!

Tripon Posted: August 01, 2012 at 12:04 AM | 5975 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: boston, politics

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   5901. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 01:46 PM (#4224492)
He did say which marathon:
A spokesman confirmed late Friday that the Republican vice presidential candidate has run one marathon. That was the 1990 Grandma’s Marathon in Duluth, Minnesota, where Ryan, then 20, is listed as having finished in 4 hours, 1 minute, and 25 seconds.
   5902. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:09 PM (#4224516)
Eh, he was only off by a little over an hour. (kidding - again, yes, this was stupid)
   5903. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:14 PM (#4224519)
Ryan said he ran a marathon in 2 and change because it plays up his chiseled buffness image (there's a group of people who just love Paul Ryan because he's a CrossFitter) and it never occurred to him that Runner's World would be listening, care, and actually look at the finish times for the race.

He lied because embellishing his image is second nature to a politician, Ryan's a politician, and he didn't think he'd get called out.
   5904. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:19 PM (#4224525)
he didn't think he'd get called out


And this is the danger of pulling somebody who is essentially a local politician onto the national stage. Ryan seems much smarter than Sarah Palin, for example, but this is the same sort of issue that plagued Palin's VP nomination.
   5905. robinred Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4224528)
A Runner's World piece is the link; apparently John Kerry claimed to have run a Boston Marathon but that was never confirmed, according to the piece, so Kerry may have been lying about that.

I know two guys who are Iron Man types and have done Triathlons, and while neither of them brags about it, both of them do know their marathon PR to the minute and second and have told me the times in casual conversation when asked.
   5906. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4224533)
And this is the danger of pulling somebody who is essentially a local politician onto the national stage.


This, and also the fact that this is one of those things where the claim creeps out of the beaten down DC media pool and bubbles up into a niche press that actually thinks "hey, let's verify that if we can." This is the sort of casual lie that pols get away with all the time in DC because the cocktail circuit "reporters" just turn the other way and maintain their access credentials for another year. Runner's World does better journalism than our political press corps.
   5907. tshipman Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:35 PM (#4224535)
I know two guys who are Iron Man types and have done Triathlons, and while neither of them brags about it, both of them do know their marathon PR to the minute and second and have told me the times in casual conversation when asked.


Yeah, in my experience if you're into running/fitness enough to run a marathon, you're extremely proud of the achievement and know your time to the second. Not really a huge deal, but it does highlight how different the local audience is different from a national one. Good for Paul Ryan that he finished a marathon. That's really hard--and a four hour time is pretty good.
   5908. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 01, 2012 at 02:49 PM (#4224543)
Good for Paul Ryan that he finished a marathon. That's really hard--and a four hour time is pretty good.


Most amateur runners shoot for an sub-4 hour marathon. Commitment will get you to the 3:30. Real commitment - training your ass off for a few years - will get you under 3 hours. A 3:30 is stringing 26 back to back 8 minute miles together, which is ####### hard. The reason Runner's World was on this so quickly is because a sub-3 marathon is a real athletic feat. It's like claiming you were starting CF at a second level D-1 program when you were playing competitive men's intramurals at a D-III school.
   5909. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:04 PM (#4224555)
Obama promises a trillion-dollar stimulus will keep unemployment under 8 percent, and that's considered a minor flub, when it's mentioned at all.

Ryan gives an erroneous finish time for a meaningless race that occurred 20 years ago, and it's a Huge Deal.

What a country.
   5910. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:13 PM (#4224563)
Obama promises a trillion-dollar stimulus will keep unemployment under 8 percent, and that's considered a minor flub, when mentioned at all.

Ryan gives an erroneous finish time for a meaningless race that occurred 20 years ago, and it's a Huge Deal.


Nobody really thinks this is a Huge Deal. The over/under on number of American voters who won't vote for Mitt Romney because his running mate lied about his marathon time can't possibly be more than 3.

What I think is mildly interesting about the two examples you cite is to show that there's something of an art to political "lying". The Obama lie is refutable - it was a wrong forecast, not a mis-statement of actual fact, and one can spin a story to defend it - "things were worse than we thought; it turns out 'shovel-ready' projects weren't really ready". This may or may not be a good story and there's an obvious spin to it, but that's sort of "acceptable" from politicians. It's similar to the Janesville GM plant story from Ryan's speech - Democrats jumped on that as a "lie", but Republicans had their defenses of it (see the last couple of pages here).

What you can't/shouldn't do is to make a statement of fact that is, in fact, verifiably wrong. You can't "spin" a 4:01 marathon time into a sub-3:00 marathon. In this case, the speed over which Paul Ryan can run 26 miles has absolutely no bearing on his ability to be Vice President. But I think if he and the Romney campaign are smart (and I think they are), there's a lesson to be learned here in terms of the sorts of things that a national candidate can get away with claiming.
   5911. tshipman Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:16 PM (#4224566)
Obama promises a trillion-dollar stimulus will keep unemployment under 8 percent, and that's considered a minor flub, when it's mentioned at all.

Ryan gives an erroneous finish time for a meaningless race that occurred 20 years ago, and it's a Huge Deal.


Is the marathon gaffe actually a huge story? I had the impression that no one really cared. There was a lot of discussion about the relative dishonesty of the Janesville comment, but I thought the marathon gaffe was sort of being laughed at. For me, it does not matter, really. It does illustrate the importance of familiarity with national campaigns and the national media. In local races, you can pretty much say what you like. This is why political scientists say to go with people who have already run for president as VP.

I'm just going to ignore the rest of the comment.

Most amateur runners shoot for an sub-4 hour marathon. Commitment will get you to the 3:30.


Four hours for his first (and only) marathon is pretty damn good. I mean, it's not elite or anything, but it's certainly a better time than 530 congressmen could do (maybe not that beefcakey Republican from IL).

edit:
The Obama lie is refutable - it was a wrong forecast, not a mis-statement of actual fact, and one can spin a story to defend it - "things were worse than we thought; it turns out 'shovel-ready' projects weren't really ready". This may or may not be a good story and there's an obvious spin to it, but that's sort of "acceptable" from politicians. It's similar to the Janesville GM plant story from Ryan's speech - Democrats jumped on that as a "lie", but Republicans had their defenses of it (see the last couple of pages here).


Okay, have to comment on this one. The Obama statement wasn't a lie at all. It was a projection, based on the best available data at the time. The best available data turned out to be incorrect, thus the projection was inaccurate. That's not really similar to Janesville at all. Janesville, at best, was an elision of context and at worst was just rank dishonesty.
   5912. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:19 PM (#4224569)
And this is the danger of pulling somebody who is essentially a local politician onto the national stage. Ryan seems much smarter than Sarah Palin, for example, but this is the same sort of issue that plagued Palin's VP nomination.

Well, at least Ryan didn't claim he could see Russia once he crossed the finish line. He only claimed to have run a time that would have won him a gold medal in the 1908 Olympics.
   5913. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:25 PM (#4224573)
The Obama statement wasn't a lie at all.


To be fair, I should have put the word "lie" in quotes in my first sentence you quote (if for no other reason than I did put "lie" in quotes talking about Ryan's Janesville GM comments - which was closer to an actual lie as the term is used by normal people). I do agree with you that making a bad prediction is not, in fact, a lie (it is, however, a perfectly legitimate grounds for criticism in a political campaign, I'd say).
   5914. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:26 PM (#4224574)
The Obama statement wasn't a lie at all. It was a projection, based on the best available data at the time. The best available data turned out to be incorrect, thus the projection was inaccurate. That's not really similar to Janesville at all.

OK, how about when Obama promised "two and a half million more jobs by January 2011" [see last video clip]. Was that a lie, or were we supposed to assume all sorts of fine-print assumptions that Obama didn't bother to mention?
   5915. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:31 PM (#4224582)
Obama promises a trillion-dollar stimulus will keep unemployment under 8 percent, and that's considered a minor flub, when it's mentioned at all.


I will say, Joe, that the notion that Obama has gotten away with something here that's being ignored in this campaign seems fairly bizarre to me. Essentially, Romney's key argument against Obama is that the government has spent trillions of dollars and unemployment is over 8 percent. Many, many Republicans have repeated over and over that Obama's stimulus (and his economic policies in general) didn't work.
   5916. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:32 PM (#4224585)
I will say, Joe, that the notion that Obama has gotten away with something here that's being ignored in this campaign seems fairly bizarre to me. Essentially, Romney's key argument against Obama is that the government has spent trillions of dollars and unemployment is over 8 percent. Many, many Republicans have repeated over and over that Obama's stimulus (and his economic policies in general) didn't work.

Are mainstream media outlets writing articles calling Obama a liar? They've been going nuts with the Janesville thing, despite that issue essentially being irrelevant when compared to the trillion-dollar stimulus and the promise to create 2.5 million jobs.
   5917. greenback likes millwall Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:37 PM (#4224590)
And this is the danger of pulling somebody who is essentially a local politician onto the national stage.

Ryan maybe poorly vetted in some sense, but he's been working either in DC or for a national political organization for the vast majority of the last twenty years. He's not a local politician.

This probably isn't the best place to ask the question, but I don't understand his story that Ayn Rand inspired him to a career in public service. What was his personal mantra, those who can do, those who can't become politicians to protect those who can? My cynical side thinks his invocations of Ayn Rand were dog whistles to generic well-to-do conservatives -- "you're special, and I get it."
   5918. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:40 PM (#4224592)
Are mainstream media outlets writing articles calling Obama a liar?


Barack Obama promised to keep the unemployment rate below 8% 3-1/2 years ago. Since that time, it has been pointed out many, many times by many, many people that Barack Obama was, in fact, wrong, and unemployment rose and remained above 8%. Paul Ryan made his comment about the Janesville GM plant two days ago. It's a bit more news - as in, it's "new"er.

Everybody in America knows that unemployment is higher than Barack Obama predicted it would be; what would be the point of printing an article saying that right now? If Obama tries to claim that unemployment peaked at 7.9% and is currently 6.5% in his acceptance speech next week, I'm quite certain there will be any number of "mainstream media outlets" denouncing this as an outrageous lie.
   5919. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 03:43 PM (#4224594)
Ryan maybe poorly vetted in some sense, but he's been working either in DC or for a national political organization for the vast majority of the last twenty years. He's not a local politician.


Ryan has never competed in even a state-wide campaign, though. He has national experience in government - that would serve him well as the actual VP - but not in campaigning.
   5920. tshipman Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:01 PM (#4224607)
Are mainstream media outlets writing articles calling Obama a liar? They've been going nuts with the Janesville thing, despite that issue essentially being irrelevant when compared to the trillion-dollar stimulus and the promise to create 2.5 million jobs.


Well, a large part of that is because the stimulus really did create 2.5 million jobs.

From the CBO's August 2012 statement:

The effects of ARRA on output peaked in the first half of 2010 and have since diminished, CBO estimates. The effects on employment are estimated to lag slightly behind the effects on output; CBO estimates that the employment effects began to wane at the end of 2010 and continued to do so through the second quarter of 2012.

Still, CBO estimates that, compared with what would have occurred otherwise, in 2012 ARRA will:

Raise real GDP by between 0.1 percent and 0.8 percent, and
Increase the number of FTE jobs by between 0.2 million and 1.2 million.


From Daniel Wilson's econometric study:

The stimulus created 2 million jobs in its first year, and 3.2 million by March 2011. The jobs multiplier varies widely based on whether one studies stimulus spending that has been announced to go to certain recipients, is obligated to those recipients, or has actually been paid out to those recipients. Estimates vary from 4.8, for one measure based on announced spending, to 25.2, for another measure based on actual payments. Private sector, state and local government and construction sectors all showed consistently significant positive effects, whereas whether the effect on manufacturing, education and health was positive depends on whether one looks at announcements, obligations or payments.


The reason why the news media cannot flatly claim that it didn't work is that the bulk of the academic evidence points to it having done what Dr. Romer said it would.



In addition, we can take a look at private sector employment in the aggregate.
   5921. greenback likes millwall Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:05 PM (#4224609)
Ryan has never competed in even a state-wide campaign, though.

If we understand that that no detail in a national campaign is too small to escape the spotlight, then a disciplined, experienced Washington insider like Ryan should understand that as well.
   5922. Los Angeles El Hombre of Anaheim Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:07 PM (#4224612)
<blockquoe>They've been going nuts with the Janesville thing, despite that issue essentially being irrelevant</blockquote>Then why'd Ryan use it in his big speech?
   5923. Lassus Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:12 PM (#4224614)
Then why'd Ryan use it in his big speech?

The RNC is part of the liberal media. There is no escape. No hope.
   5924. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:20 PM (#4224618)
Why you guys continue to engage with an obvious troll is inexplicable.
   5925. Kiko Sakata Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:24 PM (#4224620)
Why you guys continue to engage with an obvious troll is inexplicable.


I thought tshipman's #5920 was really interesting (I do econometrics for a living, so I'm admittedly weird that way). An interesting topic of conversation is an interesting topic of conversation even if it emerges out of a trollish comment.
   5926. tshipman Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:35 PM (#4224625)
I'd like to emphasize that I do think that there's a really good critique of the Obama administration's economic policy.

The recession in 2009 was all about housing debt, and to a lesser extent, total household indebtedness. Obama's desire to slow-play housing because of the bad optics caused the recovery to proceed slower than it had to, and allowing the remarkable cuts to public sector workforce has completely slowed the recovery.

This is not a critique that the Republican party is capable of bringing for a variety of reasons.
   5927. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 01, 2012 at 04:42 PM (#4224627)
Why you guys continue to engage with an obvious troll is inexplicable.

I thought tshipman's #5920 was really interesting (I do econometrics for a living, so I'm admittedly weird that way). An interesting topic of conversation is an interesting topic of conversation even if it emerges out of a trollish comment.

Mr. Chairman, I place the name of tshipman in nomination for the office of Official BTF Troll Slayer.

   5928. robinred Posted: September 01, 2012 at 05:19 PM (#4224643)
Is the marathon gaffe actually a huge story?


Of course not; it is just one of many things that happen along the endless campaign trail that 24/7 media use to fill up space. It makes Ryan look kind of careless, and maybe worse than that if you interpret it a certain way, but as noted it will have zero impact on the election. It will be used for jokes for a few days and will be used for a barb or two at the DNC, and will then fade away, just like the Clint Eastwood thing.

I use the term "careless" because people, particularly big-time pols, should realize that in the information age, many things like this can be checked very easily. There are occasionally threads here when guys share anecdotes about some guy they work with or met at a party or whatever claiming to have played minor league, or even major league, baseball, not realizing that someone can verify that on the internet in about 20 seconds.
   5929. booond Posted: September 01, 2012 at 07:37 PM (#4224711)
Of course not; it is just one of many things that happen along the endless campaign trail that 24/7 media use to fill up space. It makes Ryan look kind of careless,


Careless might be 350 instead of 401. It continues from his RNC speech the meme that the man is an inveterate liar. It is not the bundle of hay but another straw.

Where's Mitt? We have Christie's keynote speech for his 2016 campaign, Ryan's set of lies and Eastwood's senility and Mitt can't be found anywhere. If he was to come out from under his rock you'd think he'd have done it by now.
   5930. robinred Posted: September 01, 2012 at 07:48 PM (#4224716)
Careless might be 350 instead of 401


I read an article; the quotes make Ryan look pretty bad. But I don't see it swinging votes.
   5931. robinred Posted: September 01, 2012 at 07:56 PM (#4224722)
Also, I meant "careless" in the sense of knowing where you can shave the truth and where you can't--similar to what Kiko was saying. You can't shave the truth on a timed athletic event.
   5932. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 08:26 PM (#4224732)
Those lefties at the American Enterprise Institute also thought the stimulus worked:
The real economy also responded to the massive stimulus but remained heavily dependent on it. In the United States, growth during the second half of 2009 probably averaged about 3 percent. Absent temporary fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding, which taken together added about 4 percentage points to U.S. growth, the economy would have contracted at about a 1 percent annual rate during the second half of 2009.
   5933. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 01, 2012 at 08:45 PM (#4224748)
Why you guys continue to engage with an obvious troll is inexplicable.

Why you guys continue to engage with a nasty clown who threatens non-liberals with neck stabbings is inexplicable.

***
Everybody in America knows that unemployment is higher than Barack Obama predicted it would be; what would be the point of printing an article saying that right now?

What would be the point? In 2012, three years after Obama's grand predictions, GDP growth remains barely half of what it was in 1992, when the media gleefully went along with Clinton's "It's the economy, stupid" campaign mantra. I'm sure it's just a meaningless piece of trivia that the incumbent in '92 was a Republican.
   5934. bobm Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:13 PM (#4224774)
[5932] Those lefties at the American Enterprise Institute also thought the stimulus worked:

The stimulus "worked" in that the government spending replaced the "missing" private sector spending. They don't say that it had any multiplicative effect.

When one injects 800 billion of government money into a 15,000 billion economy, would not one expect to get at least as much marginal growth as the government spent, dollar for dollar? That's about the 3-4 % observed impact.

The extended quote:

The real economy also responded to the massive stimulus but remained heavily dependent on it. In the United States, growth during the second half of 2009 probably averaged about 3 percent. Absent temporary fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding, which taken together added about 4 percentage points to U.S. growth, the economy would have contracted at about a 1 percent annual rate during the second half of 2009.

As we move from 2009 to 2010, we are not likely to see a continuation of the improving financial and economic trends that characterized the last three quarters of 2009. The intensity of the stimulus applied cannot be repeated. Recall that central banks pushed interest rates to zero and undertook massive liquidity injections into the banking system while governments simultaneously and aggressively boosted spending--pushing up deficits and debt. Yet it is far from clear whether many of the world's economies can sustain growth without the massive stimulus or, in the case of China, avoid inflation without its withdrawal.
   5935. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:25 PM (#4224781)
They don't say that it had any multiplicative effect.
Tax cuts don't help very much in that regard. But they were in there. (There's a chart out there saying the biggest multiplier goes to, IIRC, food stamps. Tax cuts are close to dollar-for-dollar, if not slightly in the red.)

As for the bolded stuff, I agree with every point.
   5936. asdf1234 Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:27 PM (#4224784)
My cynical side thinks his invocations of Ayn Rand were dog whistles to generic well-to-do conservatives -- "you're special, and I get it."


I believe the saying goes that if you hear the dog whistle, you're the dog. I have yet to meet a Republican who cares about Ryan's invocation of Ayn Rand or a libertarian (or even objectivist) who is fooled by it; Ryan's voting record indicates that he's no more a Rand acolyte than he is a Muslim.


Those lefties at the American Enterprise Institute also thought the stimulus worked:

The real economy also responded to the massive stimulus but remained heavily dependent on it. In the United States, growth during the second half of 2009 probably averaged about 3 percent. Absent temporary fiscal stimulus and inventory rebuilding, which taken together added about 4 percentage points to U.S. growth, the economy would have contracted at about a 1 percent annual rate during the second half of 2009.


You need to read that article and other substantial critiques of the stimulus again.
   5937. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:34 PM (#4224793)
You need to read that article and other substantial critiques of the stimulus again.
Hey, I'm one of the critics. Like I said, too much in the way of tax cuts. Also, too dependent on "shovel-ready" stuff. If you're hiring civil engineers, that also moves the ball forward for improving infrastructure while getting money back into the economy.
   5938. Fred Lynn Nolan Ryan Sweeney Agonistes Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:40 PM (#4224796)
There are occasionally threads here when guys share anecdotes about some guy they work with or met at a party or whatever claiming to have played minor league, or even major league, baseball, not realizing that someone can verify that on the internet in about 20 seconds.

Yep. About 20 years ago, I worked with a guy who claimed to have made AAA in the A's system - told this great, detailed story about hitting a double off Vida Blue in spring training. He was extremely muscular and athletic, looked like a ballplayer, never really doubted his story at the time.
Now, though... turns out there's no evidence of him in the A's system, or anybody else's system, whatsoever.
   5939. Zoppity Zoop Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:50 PM (#4224801)

From the CBO's August 2012 statement:


I'm sure Szymborski's projections would look absolutely amazing if he could use his model to make the projections and then use the same model to provide the season-end statistics to compare the projections to.
   5940. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:53 PM (#4224802)
Yep. About 20 years ago, I worked with a guy who claimed to have made AAA in the A's system - told this great, detailed story about hitting a double off Vida Blue in spring training. He was extremely muscular and athletic, looked like a ballplayer, never really doubted his story at the time.
Now, though... turns out there's no evidence of him in the A's system, or anybody else's system, whatsoever.


I've got the same situation. A guy who lives near me claims he played minor league ball for the Twins in the 60's. Tells great stories about playing in the minors with Rod Carew, plying in spring training with Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva. But there's no record of anyone with his name playing minor league ball with the Twins in the 60's. Not even anyone with his last name regardless of his first name. But my friends and neighbors believe him, and drink in his stories. But if I call him out, I'm the #######. How does one deal with this? Let it go?
   5941. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 09:57 PM (#4224805)
Let it go?
I would. Unless he started using this lie for personal gain. Not that one's minor-league ballplaying 40-plus years ago, even legit, carries much juice and opportunities to cash in on such.
   5942. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:04 PM (#4224808)
Unless he started using this lie for personal gain.


He probably didn't start that way, but he's a local celebrity now so it probably helps him a little. However, it doesn't hurt me, or anyone else really. It just annoys me.
   5943. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:28 PM (#4224828)
Life's too short.

Of course, you could always use this for blackmail purposes.
   5944. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:34 PM (#4224835)
A stimulus multiplier chart (PDF), as researched by Moody's - see Page 4.

Food stamps: 1.74

Across-the-board tax cut: 1.02

Food for thought, but up to you to spend the stamps on it...
   5945. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:42 PM (#4224847)
There are occasionally threads here when guys share anecdotes about some guy they work with or met at a party or whatever claiming to have played minor league, or even major league, baseball, not realizing that someone can verify that on the internet in about 20 seconds.


Yep. About 20 years ago, I worked with a guy who claimed to have made AAA in the A's system - told this great, detailed story about hitting a double off Vida Blue in spring training. He was extremely muscular and athletic, looked like a ballplayer, never really doubted his story at the time.
Now, though... turns out there's no evidence of him in the A's system, or anybody else's system, whatsoever.


I've got the same situation. A guy who lives near me claims he played minor league ball for the Twins in the 60's. Tells great stories about playing in the minors with Rod Carew, plying in spring training with Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva. But there's no record of anyone with his name playing minor league ball with the Twins in the 60's. Not even anyone with his last name regardless of his first name. But my friends and neighbors believe him, and drink in his stories. But if I call him out, I'm the #######. How does one deal with this? Let it go?

Over the years I've had at least half a dozen people tell me that they played minor league ball, and not one of them showed up in the baseball guides in the years and / or leagues they'd allegedly played in. There was also a law clerk for a DC federal judge who said that the judge had played for the Senators in the early 40's. That one took about 10 seconds on BB-Reference to dispose of.

Those that amused me the most were the ones who'd say something like "I played in the Red Sox system....about 30 years ago", but they couldn't even tell you the ####### year(s) or even the name of the team! I guess their dog ate their baseball cards.

Did I confront them on it when I found out they were bullshitting? Mostly yes, at least unless they were good customers and not just pop-in bullshit artists who saw some display of baseball books in my shop window and came in trying to impress me for no apparent reason. I'm usually not too sadistic, but I love to see congenital liars spin and squirm when you stick the evidence right in their face.
   5946. greenback likes millwall Posted: September 01, 2012 at 10:52 PM (#4224854)
I believe the saying goes that if you hear the dog whistle, you're the dog.

That's a nice thought.

I have yet to meet a Republican who cares about Ryan's invocation of Ayn Rand or a libertarian (or even objectivist) who is fooled by it; Ryan's voting record indicates that he's no more a Rand acolyte than he is a Muslim.

That's an exaggeration, I think, but his voting record is besides the point. Actually so are the views of your Republican friends. This is really about Paul Ryan's mindset. If Paul Ryan thought it would impress the right people, he might tell them he's Muslim.
   5947. Misirlou is on hiding to nowhere Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:08 PM (#4224861)
Did I confront them on it when I found out they were bullshitting? Mostly yes, at least unless they were good customers and not just pop-in ######## artists who saw some display of baseball books in my shop window and came in trying to impress me for no apparent reason. I'm usually not too sadistic, but I love to see congenital liars spin and squirm when you stick the evidence right in their face.


Thing is, I did that, sort of. Not the braggart directly, but one of his admirers. I showed him the BBREF search file which showed no such name and got a "Well, you're a real ####### geek aren't you?" from him. As in, "I believe him, and not your geeky intertubes".
   5948. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:24 PM (#4224868)
Thing is, I did that, sort of. Not the braggart directly, but one of his admirers. I showed him the BBREF search file which showed no such name and got a "Well, you're a real ####### geek aren't you?" from him. As in, "I believe him, and not your geeky intertubes".

I didn't get any hostile reaction from the judge's clerk when I punctured that fable about his boss playing for the Senators, but OTOH I doubt if that clerk ever brought up the subject again in the judge's presence. (smile)

BTW there's a house guest staying here tonight, a former North Carolina champion high school miler, who heard that Ryan BS tale and said that Ryan's "lost the runners' vote" because of it. I don't believe that for a second, but he said that runners don't usually like people making up stories about their times, and especially marathoners because of the enormous amount of effort that they have to put into their sport just in order to compete.
   5949. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:29 PM (#4224872)
As in, "I believe him, and not your geeky intertubes".
Ah, well. Best you can do in that situation is seed doubt.
   5950. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:31 PM (#4224873)
This blog entry from Rooted Cosmopolitan sort of expresses what my former miler friend was getting at:

The New Yorker’s Nicholas Thompson says Ryan’s time, for a twenty year old, was “entirely average; in fact, for the race that Ryan ran, it was below average.” That’s not really true. To finish a marathon, at any age, is not average. It takes preparation, at a bare minimum three or four months of disciplined fitness work, as well as focus and an ability to push yourself to finish the race. A 4:01 marathon is an achievement of which anyone should be proud.

But the difference between a 4:01 marathon and a sub-three hour marathon isn’t a quibble over a workout time. It’s a difference between what someone did, and who someone is. For most men, breaking three hours in the marathon requires at least two or three years of serious training. It’s not simply getting in to shape, it’s training: probably 40 to 80 miles a week for most of the year, regular 12 to 15 mile runs, attention to diet, rigorous adherence to a schedule, consistent and sufficient rest and sacrificing some indulgences that give people pleasure. A man with a time of 4:01.25 is someone who has run a marathon. A man with a marathon time better than 3:00:00 is a marathoner.

Thompson:

For someone who doesn’t run, the difference between a four-hour marathon and a two-fifty-something may seem inconsequential, and easy to confuse. But for someone who does run seriously, it’s immense. To make an analogy to an activity that Ryan is unquestionably good at, it’s like the difference between doing twenty-five pushups (not bad!) and a hundred (holy smokes!)

That’s an OK analogy, but it’s comparing things one is capable of doing. A marathon is a performance, and your time is the level of your achievement. What Ryan did was akin to someone with a bachelor’s degree, who thus knows the magnitude of the difference, saying she has a PhD. Or, like someone elected to the Wisconsin House of Representatives telling someone who wouldn’t be likely to catch the lie that he was a member of the United States House of Representatives.
   5951. hokieneer Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:36 PM (#4224875)
Thing is, I did that, sort of. Not the braggart directly, but one of his admirers. I showed him the BBREF search file which showed no such name and got a "Well, you're a real ####### geek aren't you?" from him. As in, "I believe him, and not your geeky intertubes".


You took a cool story away from the admirer. He no longer has the story of, my awesome neighbor used to play in the minors with Rod Carew, so he's mad at you for that.

People want the story, the legend, the myth; not the truth.
   5952. SoSH U at work Posted: September 01, 2012 at 11:59 PM (#4224885)
I've got the same situation. A guy who lives near me claims he played minor league ball for the Twins in the 60's. Tells great stories about playing in the minors with Rod Carew, plying in spring training with Harmon Killebrew and Tony Oliva. But there's no record of anyone with his name playing minor league ball with the Twins in the 60's. Not even anyone with his last name regardless of his first name. But my friends and neighbors believe him, and drink in his stories. But if I call him out, I'm the #######. How does one deal with this? Let it go?


One of my parents' oldest friends told a great story of pitching in the pre-Twins Sens' system around that same time. He said this fat guy walked up to the plate and he was chuckling to himself how we was going to blow the fastball by him.
"It was Boog Powell," he'd say. "And the ball's still going."
Having just checked it out, he did play two seasons in Sens system, and both he and Boog were the Appy league at the same time.
   5953. Gold Star - just Gold Star Posted: September 02, 2012 at 12:36 AM (#4224903)
Whoops - wrongthread.
   5954. Greg K Posted: September 02, 2012 at 04:49 AM (#4224943)
You took a cool story away from the admirer. He no longer has the story of, my awesome neighbor used to play in the minors with Rod Carew, so he's mad at you for that.

People want the story, the legend, the myth; not the truth.

Yeah, "I have a neighbour who played minor league ball" is a funner story to tell than "I have a neighbour who lies about having played minor league ball". At the end of the day that dude is just a story they tell people.
   5955. SteveF Posted: September 02, 2012 at 05:35 AM (#4224945)
Lots of people who have trained for years can't crack a 3 hour marathon. It usually takes a pretty intelligent training regimen to manage it (e.g. Yasso 800s). The people cracking 2:30 likely have genetic advantages over the average person. I think in most places running a sub 3:30 lets you qualify and wear a number, to give you an idea of what an accomplishment a sub 3 hour would be.
   5956. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 02, 2012 at 06:33 AM (#4224946)
You took a cool story away from the admirer. He no longer has the story of, my awesome neighbor used to play in the minors with Rod Carew, so he's mad at you for that.

People want the story, the legend, the myth; not the truth.


Yeah, "I have a neighbour who played minor league ball" is a funner story to tell than "I have a neighbour who lies about having played minor league ball".

That's not always true, not by a long shot. A former employer of mine is such a world class liar that every outed lie of his just adds a page to a world-class resume of BS that gets circulated like quasi-samizdats among people who've known him. There are probably several thousand people throughout the DC area and throughout the book business who will react to a mention of this guy's name by immediately offering a story of their own about him, to everyone's entertainment. He's never claimed to have played minor league ball, but he did claim to have played freshman basketball for UVA, at a time when he was in fact a freshman drug dealer enrolled at American University, who had never even played varsity basketball in high school, and who could have been admitted to the University of Virginia only if his old man had bought the school. The world is full of former freshman basketball players, but bullshit artists like this guy are what keep comedians in business.

And you can pretty much say the same thing about a congenital fabricator like Paul Ryan. There was another Republican congressman from the midwest not that long ago (Jim Ryun) who really was one of the top milers in the world for several years. There was another GOP congressman (Bob Mathias) who was a two time Olympic decathlon gold medalist. If they'd told a story about a race of theirs to some interviewer, it would have rated a mention in the next day's paper and then been quickly forgotten. Whereas Paul Ryan's spontaneous fabrication is just one more entry in a book that's already had his handlers declaring open war against the fact checkers, and at some point this meme is going to be a lot more interesting (and entertaining) than the latest spin he's putting on that phony budget plan of his.
   5957. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 02, 2012 at 11:11 AM (#4225021)
And you can pretty much say the same thing about a congenital fabricator like Paul Ryan.

So Ryan is a "congenital fabricator" because he said an auto plant in Janesville closed after Obama took office (which is TRUE) and because he gave an incorrect answer about a marathon he ran over 20 years ago?

You guys are funny.
   5958. Lassus Posted: September 02, 2012 at 11:36 AM (#4225025)
So Ryan is a "congenital fabricator" because he said an auto plant in Janesville closed after Obama took office (which is TRUE) and because he gave an incorrect answer about a marathon he ran over 20 years ago? You guys are funny.

I'm assuming you missed the story on FOX calling Ryan's speech full of repeated fabrication.
   5959. Joe Kehoskie Posted: September 02, 2012 at 11:45 AM (#4225029)
I'm assuming you missed the story on FOX calling Ryan's speech full of repeated fabrication.

You mean the liberal op-ed?
   5960. Lassus Posted: September 02, 2012 at 12:11 PM (#4225039)
You mean the liberal op-ed?

How about politifact?

Anyhow, the running story is dumb, and I don't agree with Andy about it.
   5961. robinred Posted: September 02, 2012 at 01:06 PM (#4225057)
incorrect answer

I agree with Lassus in that I think Andy is overplaying it, and like I said, it isn't going to affect the election. But if you read what Ryan actually said, he didn't "give an incorrect answer."
   5962. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 02, 2012 at 01:14 PM (#4225062)
   5963. robinred Posted: September 02, 2012 at 01:57 PM (#4225091)
I am a huge Clint Eastwood fan."


"He is a great actor, and an even better director," the president told the (USA Today) aboard Air Force One on Saturday. "I think the last few movies that he's made have been terrific."

Eastwood's 12-minute improvised riff at the convention in Tampa centered on a exchange in which he pretended to have a conversation with an invisible Obama, represented by an empty chair. Obama's campaign Twitter account hit back with a photo of Obama in a chair with a presidential plate. "This seat's taken," it said.

So was the president offended?

"One thing about being president or running for president — if you're easily offended, you should probably choose another profession," the president said.
   5964. robinred Posted: September 02, 2012 at 01:59 PM (#4225092)
The U.S. military has halted the training of some Afghan forces while it digs deeper into their background following a surge of attacks by soldiers and police on their international partners, officials said Sunday.

The move only puts about 1,000 Afghan trainees into limbo, a small fraction of the country's security forces. But it shows how these attacks have the potential to derail the U.S.-Afghan handover of security so essential to the international drawdown strategy.


http://news.yahoo.com/us-stops-training-afghan-forces-attacks-143111273.html
   5965. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:06 PM (#4225098)
The U.S. military has halted the training of some Afghan forces while it digs deeper into their background following a surge of attacks by soldiers and police on their international partners, officials said Sunday.

The move only puts about 1,000 Afghan trainees into limbo, a small fraction of the country's security forces. But it shows how these attacks have the potential to derail the U.S.-Afghan handover of security so essential to the international drawdown strategy.


WTF are we still doing in Afghanistan?

Pick the least abhorrent warlords, bribe them with enough guns and money, so we can stage SF in their areas when necessary, and get the eff out.

Afghanistan has never been a nation, is not a nation, and won't be one for a long time.
   5966. robinred Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:13 PM (#4225103)
WTF are we still doing in Afghanistan?


And on this, I pretty much agree with snapper.
   5967. jack the seal clubber (on the sidelines of life) Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:20 PM (#4225112)
WTF are we still doing in Afghanistan?

Pick the least abhorrent warlords, bribe them with enough guns and money, so we can stage SF in their areas when necessary, and get the eff out.

Afghanistan has never been a nation, is not a nation, and won't be one for a long time.


neither is Iraq. There is no reason other than retribution and national defense concerns(which have been addressed as far as they will be) for us to be in those countries; they don't know what democracy is, and even if they could have it, they don't want it. Let them have all the civil wars they like as long as it's not our troops getting killed.Iraq and Afghanistan are no more "countries" than Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union were.

Been kind of amused by the length and wavering nature of this thread but Snapper's comment is so dead on had to weigh in.
   5968. Jolly Old St. Nick Still Gags in October Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:23 PM (#4225117)
I agree with Lassus in that I think Andy is overplaying it, and like I said, it isn't going to affect the election.

Of course it's not going to affect the election. Undecided distance runners residing in swing states are not exactly a critical voting mass. And if I'd ever thought about voting for Vulture and Voucher to begin with, that pathetic story of Ryan's wouldn't change my vote, either.

But if you read what Ryan actually said, he didn't "give an incorrect answer."

He certainly didn't. It was about on the same level as what Elizabeth Warren did in claiming that "Indian" ancestry when she was applying for her faculty position. On the one hand it's the sort of Little White Lie that is sadly all too commonplace among people who should know better, but on another level it could very well be a symptom of something worse. My opinion of Elizabeth Warren took a small nosedive when I heard about that bogus claim of hers, and when I read about a wildly bogus claim like Ryan's it's kind of hard not to wonder what other type of BS he spreads about himself whenever he thinks he can't be outed.
   5969. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:30 PM (#4225120)
neither is Iraq. There is no reason other than retribution and national defense concerns(which have been addressed as far as they will be) for us to be in those countries; they don't know what democracy is, and even if they could have it, they don't want it. Let them have all the civil wars they like as long as it's not our troops getting killed.Iraq and Afghanistan are no more "countries" than Yugoslavia and the Soviet Union were.

Been kind of amused by the length and wavering nature of this thread but Snapper's comment is so dead on had to weigh in.


But, Iraq is actually civilized and governable, as opposed to a bunch of medieval wackjob tribalists.

I think a de-facto partition of Iraq (keep a central gov't, but give it no power) could have worked quite well, if we had put enough troops in initially, and had had a competent civil affairs strategy.

I would have divided Iraq into Kurdish, Sunni Arab, Shiite Arab, and Christian "states". With U.S. bases in the Kurdish and Christian areas.

That way, even if the Shiites became pawns of Iran, you don't lose the whole country.

Of course, if we actually exploit all our new found gas and oil reserves, maybe in ten years we can wash our hands of the whole Middle East, which would be glorious.
   5970. Döner Kebap Posted: September 02, 2012 at 02:56 PM (#4225137)
I believe the saying goes that if you hear the dog whistle, you're the dog.


You've misunderstood the dog whistle metaphor. There's a big difference between seeing someone blow red-faced into a dog whistle and hearing the whistle (and then howling or in response.)


   5971. Rickey! In a van on 95 south... Posted: September 02, 2012 at 03:00 PM (#4225140)
   5972. Fancy Pants Handle doesn't need no water Posted: September 03, 2012 at 04:17 AM (#4225398)
There are no men like me.

There are always men like you.
   5973. asdf1234 Posted: September 03, 2012 at 05:29 AM (#4225403)
Hey, I'm one of the critics. Like I said, too much in the way of tax cuts. Also, too dependent on "shovel-ready" stuff. If you're hiring civil engineers, that also moves the ball forward for improving infrastructure while getting money back into the economy.


I'm often more blunt in these discussions than I should be; the internet tends to intensify animosities and rhetoric in a way that face-to-face discussions rarely would. My meaning was that the AEI assessment of the stimulus was that it was a disappointment, and that feeling was and is widespread.


You've misunderstood the dog whistle metaphor. There's a big difference between seeing someone blow red-faced into a dog whistle and hearing the whistle (and then howling or in response.)


It is no more unusual to contend that Ayn Rand inspired you to enter into public service than it is to contend that Jesus or Chomsky served the same purpose. Passionate radicals tend to inspire action.

The dog whistle metaphor refers to the fact that a comment that inspired no serious interest on the right was interpreted by the left to be a call to arms of feared radicals. In fact, the only individuals who heard the "whistle" (or even insisted on its existence) are on the left.
   5974. McCoy Posted: September 04, 2012 at 02:37 AM (#4225954)
I worked with one guy who claimed he went to Indiana and played for Bobby Knight. He said Bobby Knight red shirted him for 4 years so in the 5th year he would be this amazing top secret weapon of Bobby's. He did not stay employed long.

I worked with another guy who claimed his uncle received the Medal of Honor in Vietnam and yet when I looked up his name there was no records of it ever happening.
   5975. Jim Furtado Posted: September 04, 2012 at 08:31 AM (#4225998)
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