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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Friday, February 01, 2013
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Not listening! Jinx! Jinx! No one is safe until they're mathematically safe! Ahh!
What was Barry even attempting to do there? You can see even on that GIF that he drops his head and starts walking away before the ball even crosses the line.
Obviously this is rough and the samples are small, but I checked the Lloris/Friedel splits for Spurs. They're kind of entirely incredible. With Lloris in goal, Tottenham are about 85% better than league average in goals conceded (with adjustments for quality of opposition). With Friedel, they're a little below average. With Lloris in goal, Tottenham are about 40% better than league average in expected goals conceded, with Friedel they're a little below average. And obviously some percentage of the gap between real goals and expected goals should be credited to the keeper anyway.
Lloris: +85% G, +42% xG (or expressed in percentage of goals allowed, 55% G, 71% xG)
Friedel: -12% G, -6% xG (or expressed in percentage of goals allowed, 112% G, 106% xG)
Is that clear? I couldn't figure out the clearest way of expressing the concept, so I tried two different ones. Takeaway point is that Spurs have played as an elite defense with Lloris in goal. Projected over a full season, they'd be the best or second best defense in the premiership, only really challenged by City. You'd want to incorporate significant regression if you were doing a statistical projection based on splits in a sample of 25 games, but these results do back up the observations of many Spurs fans (and of Michael Cox) that Lloris makes this defense tick.
David Ngog (remember him?) scores in win over hated rivals Burnley. Hey, Owen Coyle may have got you promoted, and then quit and left for us, and then got us relegated, but, you know, at least Bolton isn't a BNP stronghold.
He was trying to side foot it out for a goal kick because he had no idea who was behind him (nice communication in the backline I am sure). He did about as well as I would have.
BTW, he also screwed up on the first goal. And Joe Hart let the second go right through the wickets. City were just all kinds of awful today.
Only guy who showed up was Zabaletta.
City were awful today that's for sure. As bad as the goals were I think they're response was more troubling. The fact is the score line was richly deserved, Southhampton simply outplayed City.
Just watched the match and you have to commend Southhampton's board. Pochettino was an inspired hire and whilst I thought Nigel was a good manager, Pochettino has that team playing a class above (including what should have been a draw with ManU). That high line pressing reminded me of AVB at his best at Porto and it frustrated the crap out of City. Unfortunately, I don't think that he's going to be with the Saints for long.
If this was an 80's movie, Hamsik is SO totally Bale's evil, douchey twin ...
Walter Mazzarri ... if Dustin Hoffman ate Alec Baldwin ...
Hugo Campagnaro ... jesus jumping christ on a teeny tiny pogo stick ... that was a FANTASTIC strike!
Nice free kick by N'Zogbia. Benteke with Weimann and N'Zogbia in support is actually a non-terrible forward corps. Certainly better than West Ham's - Carroll has been his typical hard-working version of awful, Nolan has been anonymous, and poor Joe Cole has had nothing to work with.
Man U-Everton is pretty much the title decider, twelve points is too much.
I watched for you! It was not good.
Simon Dawkins looked ok but I think he was a bit over-excited and had trouble keeping up with his feet. Say what you want about Darren Bent, but he put in max effort when he came on. Overall it was an ugly game, though.
I like what Fergie has done with his team selection. Giggs is something of a luxury player now, but he's surrounded with tough, hard-working midfielders who can cover his deficiencies. Jones is taking Fellaini out of the game like he did against Bale at WHL. Everton should have an advantage in midfield with Jones playing so deep and Giggs, well, trying his hardest, but Rooney is doing an excellent defensive job and Gibson and Neville aren't exactly going to break anyone down.
This really could be the most anti-climactic Bundesliga season in history. Bayern 15 clear at the top. 6 point gap between 4 and 5 for CL. 8 point gap between 15 and 16 for relegation (9 points if Düsseldorf get anything against FC Shooty).
The "races", such as they are barring an act of god, are for the 2 Europa spots, who of Hoffenheim and Augsburg go straight down, and who gets a playoff game, and which of Dortmund, Leverkusen, and Frankfurt has to go through CL qualification.
You haven't heard of Carlos Zambrano. For shame.
Sure it's entirely possible they blow it. But Frankfurt have been legit this year. They have the 4th best GD in the league. And more importantly, I don't see anybody else stepping up and making a run at them, now that Schalke have decided it would be much more fun to press the self-destruct button, than to win games.
Rode and Schwegler have been 2 of the best players in the league this year. Meier gets goals. They had been thin up top, but picked up Lakic from Wolfsburg at the end of January, who seems to be working out so far (2 games 2 goals). They look to me like the most complete team outside of the top 3 right now.
Edit: Typos and stuff
EDIT: And based only on watching CL games, I'd definitely take Dortmund over Shakhtar (a Willian-less Shakhtar at that), though no doubt Shakhtar has a good shot. It's an exciting matchup.
Yeah, I don't think it will be nearly as easy as some people seem to think (Shakhtar gets no respect from any of the "big league" countries), but I would still call them cautiously favourites. They have shown, if they come to play, they can beat anybody.
Edit: In fact, now I have. I am such a traitor.
Completely agree. Shakhtar made me a believer. Chelsea were easily playing in their best form of the season and Shakhtar's pace was overwhelming. Same against Juve, though the last match Shakthar sat back to not lose their place in the group. I think people are overrating Dortmund based upon the last few years and underrating Shakhtar based upon name.
1/6 Juventus
7/2 Celtic
8/15 PSG
6/4 Valencia
4/7 Real Madrid
5/4 Manchester United
4/9 Dortmund
7/4 Shakhtar
3/10 Bayern
5/2 Arsenal
5/6 Porto
1/1 Malaga
1/8 Barcelona
5/1 AC Milan
4/7 Schalke
6/4 Galatasaray
Nothing that looks terribly appealing. Shakhtar probably being underrated as those above say. Maybe the Galatasaracticos over apparently imploding Schalke.
Juventus 1/5 Celtic 9/2PSG 4/7 Valencia 6/4
Real 8/13 Man Utd 11/8
Shackhtar 7/4 Dortmund 2/5
Bayern 3/10 Arsenal 3/1
Porto 9/10 Malaga 9/10
Barcelona 1/7 Milan 11/2
Schalke 8/13 Galatasaray 6/4
I like pretty much all the underdogs, except for maybe Valencia.
Not for me. I don't see much of Dortmund, but they were extremely impressive in the group stages -- had that great combination of being able to hold the ball when need be while being absolutely devastating on the counter. And while Madrid and City have shown that they have issues, you'd still probably have to put both as top eight(ish) clubs in the world. Whether it's smart to weigh a handful of games from a few months ago more than current form is another question entirely.
Oh...and while I'm spouting stupidity, I'm calling a Chievo win today at the San Siro. Inter seems to have already entered their latest version of "Crisis" from what I've seen lately. Give me Chievo 2-1 at 19.00 according to Bet365 right now. As I live in Puritanical America and am overly law-abiding, this is merely a hypothetical wager.
I just haven't seen Arsenal play well enough against quality opposition to think they can beat Bayern. You are getting the third biggest odds in the round though so maybe it's worth a shot.
Great win for Nigeria. There a quality side with some real talent. They've done a good job of grooming talent in their country, and I think that it will pay off come WC.
Pray for us.
You know, when I read this, I just assumed he was dead. I didn't even know you could resign from being Pope.
Peter Odemwingie has been sighted in the Vatican carpark.
I had the same reaction. It's not easy damning all those masterbators!
(sorry)
Your morning Sepp Blatter moment. Damn it, these reformers actually want us to reform!
He's going to make changes to the squad that will face Leeds on Saturday. Grrr!
He is a bit of a whiner. My squad is thin! Other clubs want too much money for their players! There are too many fixtures! Blah blah blah. I guess most PL managers are either whiny or delusional, though. Big Sam claims West Ham dominated Aston Villa and, if you count the last 2 minutes of extra time in the second half the true measure of the game, I guess he's right. Alan Pardew has a temper tantrum because AVB wandered off into the dimensions of immensity without shaking his hand. Etc etc etc.
But I make a mistake. I stand up to applaud Agirretxe's goal. It's not a fist-pumping sort of celebration at all - I'm not that stupid, and neither is it accompanied by any woo-hoo hollering. I just clap a few times and sit down. I'm happy. That's when it happens. My grey scarf, wrapping me up against the Aragon cold, is suddenly grabbed from behind my neck and pulled upwards violently, making it into a sort of noose, forcing me to stand up. Turning round and expecting to see some skinhead assailant, I find myself staring at a 60-something grey haired gentleman, with the tired looks of an ageing history professor. I pull my scarf back down, just before the noose throttles me and attempt to gasp something out, but he howls me down: Estas provocando, cabrón! (You're provoking us, b*****d!) he informs me, purple-faced with rage. Si aplaudes otra vez, te mato! (If you applaud again, I'll kill you!) he adds, jabbing his finger at my nose.
I would either be shocked and do nothing or just see red and do something stupid.
It wouldn't go far, I don't think the celibacy is negotiable.
Tottenham’s only problem is an over-reliance upon Bale, especially as sides are using multiple players to try and stop him. As opponents increasingly stay deep, Tottenham will need more players capable of breaking down a packed defence, which doesn’t seem their speciality in recent weeks.
Clearly Michael Cox lurks SPURS THINK FACTORY.
Usually they change their names to something else. Pope Cloughy II.
So you can all watch me punch David Hirshey in the face.
He really is pretty awful.
Subs: Jones, Coutinho, Allen, Borini, Sterling, Skrtel, Wisdom.
West Brom: Foster, Reid, McAuley, Olsson, Ridgewell, Yacob, Mulumbu, Dorrans, Morrison, Brunt, Long.
Subs: Myhill, Rosenberg, Lukaku, Jones, Tamas, Fortune, Thomas.
Teams! I think it's a mistake for West Brom not to play Lukaku. He's exactly the kind of player Liverpool's defense struggles against. I'm assuming Sturridge is out injured.
It's the Standard Chareterd charity for blindness. Referees were not immediately available for comment.
Yes.
And justice with the save.
I am so hoping that Roman doesn't F this up. Chelsea fans have been sweating about some of his strong remarks about Brom, but just last week he talked of being a Chelsea legend. It just makes no sense for us to buy another striker for next season. Ba should get first preference at least for the start of the season, but Lukaku should come in as a strong 2 with Torres relegated to the bench or for the Capital One Cup. Falcoa money (or parts of it) need to be spent shoring up that leaky midfield.
Jonjo Shelvey is really awful. I have no idea how he got an England cap, nor do I understand why Rodgers keeps running him out there. He brings nothing to the table. He should have started Borini up top.
Liverpool were all kinds of awful today. I hope Glenn Johnson was stoned was putrid. Enrique wasn't much better on the opposite side. West Brom packed the middle of the pitch, daring the 'Pool FBs and wingers from making something happen. They couldn't.
Downing was pretty good and Suarez was poor for him but still showed good movement. The rest of the group was a joke.
One wonders how this team responds in Russia without Sturridge again.
And a central defender no? One would think Fellaini is first option for the midfield.
Lukaku is a monster. And he's not just scoring as a sub when the opposition is gassed. He scores when he starts too.
I am sure he prefers Chelsea if he gets playing time. Who wouldn't?
While I agree with you, knowing that Torres will get a lot of playing time regardless of production; and the ever changing managers there, which means the tactics and your playing time can dramatically change because someone new comes in, you can understand why someone would not prefer to go there. Yeah, the money trumps a lot of stuff and players' egos generally overlook the reality of situations. I have no idea if Lukaku does, but not every player thinks like that.
And Johnson. Don't forget the Glenn Johnson experience.
Well, Liverpool kept controlling the ball but West Brom kept their shape and forced Liverpool to break them down. They couldn't. Agger missed two free headers and Foster mad e a couple good saves. Oh and he stopped a fairly well taken penalty (not great, but not terrible either). The penalty was soft so that was somewhat deserved.
West Brom scored on their second shot of the game as Agger couldn't mark McAuley. Then Lukaku came on and ate the Pool backline alive for about ten minutes, scoring on the break. That was that.
Well, yeah, Lukaku. I had a feeling Liverpool couldn't handle him. You need big, physical CB's to keep him in check which Liverpool don't have. Spurs have that in spades and he's still a handful for them.
Was the penalty a dive? The intertubes consensus seems to be he dived but I have no basis to judge.
To be fair, I don't think that's isolated to Liverpool boards. I'm sure Rodgers' name is mud tonight though he was the next Clough last week...
1. Yes Lukaku was not handled, but Clarke did his usual against top clubs and played Long instead. No idea why as their game plan required someone who could win a damn header and Long ain't it. Lukaku did his damage late when subbed on.
2. No it wasn't a dive. He fell legitimately it just wasn't a foul. Both going up for a header and McAuley or Olsson pushed him in the back a bit. Nothing you don't see a dozen times a game. Wasn't a penalty though.
Yeah but they have a special sense of agony about them. And the profanity, oh the profanity...
1. Nebraska Cornhuskers
2. Rangers FC
3. Roma (the old one before it moved to abomiNation)
4. Any DFW newspaper live chat for a Cowboys game
5. Liverpool FC
Honorable Mention: Hinckley United. I've been following this one for a few months now and it's just achingly beautiful, sad, wistful, you name it...
oh...and I forgot!
1 (with a bullet): Replacement Level Yankees....http://www.rlyw.net/ LOVE going here when the Yanks drop more than two in a row...
Wow. Their record is 1-1-25 but they only officially have one point because of a three point deduction. They have a goal difference of -80.
Do you think if we forcibly shaved his mustache during the NLD that he'd magically become less obnoxious, sort of like Samson?
He didn't have to start Shelvey. He could have moved Henderson inside and played Sterling at the wing. Or tried Borini who has been terrible but at least may have some skill.
Shelvey touched the ball 25 times in the opponent's half today...Lucas touched it 36. Keep in mind Shelvey is playing off Suarez and Liverpool had 50% more possession in the opposition's half.
Liverpool's roster is poor but some of his selections have been puzzling to say the least.
I'm a Husker and the boards are pretty hilarious. A mixture of delusion and depression with a hint of nostalagia for the halcyon days of yesteryear. Basically, it's like Pool forums without the profanity.
Ok, that's fair enough. They still probably wouldn't have scored, but he should at least give Sterling the chance to prove he can't play rather than someone who's already done that.
North Londonthe Upper East Side of Manhattan!Don't forget MCOA. He has crazy eyes!
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