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I literally drifted off watching Ukraine and England. Ukraine seemed slightly better in the moments I was awake.
Really? I thought they played alright. Better than England in fact. Admittedly I was watching France/Sweden for the last 20 minutes or so. France looked awful.
This is a huge ####### gamble. The bits about trying to keep Modric are just cruel. I've accepted him leaving--don't torture me with hope! Tim Sherwood will be promoted to a quasi DOF role, apparently. I wonder if appointing Villas Boas will help with the recruiting of Leandro Damiao?
Also, England...they just don't convince, do they? I think Italy are in better form but it's not crazy that England could make the semis where they would meet...DEUTSCHLAND! Michael Ballack is licking his chops!
Yeah, I just came here to point out that we could have that AND Portugal-Spain in the semis. How's that for rivalries...
Although, I probably will be wagering on Italy.
After years of having (unreasonably) high expectations for England in tournaments, and having my heart ripped out, it's nice to have absolutely no expectations whatsoever, and simply be pleasantly surprised when they find a way to win. I'm expecting that they'll lose to Italy, but I'm also cautiously hoping that they'll keep on pulling rabbits out of their hat. Denmark in '92. Greece in '04. You just never know...
- AVB guiding Porto, a club with a long history of success, to a league title and Europa League title(*)
- Rodgers' previous two years at Swansea, taking them first to promotion and then solidly mid-table
- Martinez ability to keep Wigan up despite ranking in the bottom quartile (give or take) in wages
I wasn't able to reason my way through that, so I moved onto my amateur assessment of tactics, where again I struggled to really distinguish one from the other. Not that they all play the same way, but I'm inclined to like all three -- AVB with his high-pressing game, Rodgers (IMO) playing as enjoyable a game as any team in the EPL and Martinez and his clever move to a 3-5-2.
After that it's things like man management and working the transfer market which, although extremely important, I struggle to assess even more than the above two categories. Rodgers and Martinez would both be stepping into a new spending bracket, so it's tough to say if they'd do as well. And although AVB's time at Chelsea seems a negative regarding his man management skills, there's too many variables or me to say whether that will carry over to his next job.
In the end, I am perfectly fine with Rodgers' hiring, but probably would've been fine with Martinez or AVB, too. If AVB becomes il mister at Spurs, I'd recommend these two articles from Michael Cox regarding his time at Chelsea.
(*)Although I seem to recall the teams they faced en route to the EL victory wasn't a particularly strong bunch.
I think I would have been fine with any of the top 4 candidates bandied about for the Spurs job. I'm a big fan of Moyes but I seem to be in the minority on that, I'm shocked to discover. AVB is actually the one I'm most nervous about and I'm not sure I buy the narrative that Terry, Lampard and Drogba railroaded him. I'm sure that was part of it but dealing with self-entitled ######## is part of the deal. My hope is that 1) Levy signs the player he wants and 2) Gets rid of anyone who's not on board with the project. The second part may be hard for fans like me as I like this group of players, but they can't afford any locker room politics with a new manager. As for the squad, this is great news for Giovani Dos Santos who I think is very well suited to playing the role Daniel Sturridge played for AVB at Chelsea, and possibly for Gomes who may come back from whatever Arctic prison Harry relegated him to. It's bad news for Friedel and Michael Dawson, though. Dawson has been a great representative for Spurs, but unless AVB has radically evolved his tactics, I'm not sure how Dawson fits in.
(*)Although I seem to recall the teams they faced en route to the EL victory wasn't a particularly strong bunch.
Right. They didn't have to face a team from a big 4 league in the knockout stages. Still, Porto went undefeated and allowed 13 goals all season. It was an impressive season. Then again, small sample size and all that. He's not going to be at a club that can bully the league financially the way Porto and Chelsea could. Hopefully this attempt to recreate the Porto magic in England works better than the attempt to recreate the Sevilla magic did.
Seems to me that the players who are the most likable (in terms of both talent and charisma) are the ones AVB would probably want to keep around. I can't think of any real public malcontents except, ironically, the Croatian boys (Harry always said they were such model pros). And they're rather nice and subdued about it as these things go.
Kranjcar's already gone. Corluka appears to have one foot out the door. And we all suspect Modric will be off. That leaves a squad that should be overflowing with gruntled players in the aggregate. I don't imagine Defoe is AVB's idea of a center forward, but as far as senior first team players who might find themselves with an axe to grind in a few months...JD and Dawson are about it.
Gio will have to buck up his work rate if he's going to feature in AVB's system. But I suppose he'll at least get a look. That would be swell if he responds to change at the top. Funny you mention Sturridge, because I wouldn't be surprised at all if Spurs try to buy him this summer. He's got to be looking over his shoulder after Chelsea brought in Hazard and Marin to join the already established Mata and the up-and-coming Piazon and Lukaku.
Overall, I figure AVB would have a clearer, more consistent remit at Tottenham than he did at Chelsea. Despite the red tops trying to make it sound like Levy now demands Champions League football at a minimum, I don't think that's the case at all. It's a nice bonus, but I interpret an AVB appointment as an indication that Levy won't freak out if Spurs fall out of the top four for a couple seasons. Of course, that's provided they don't completely implode and that apparent progress is made towards whatever "project" he has in mind as the club gears up to build and move into a new stadium. That means AVB will have the authority and latitude to reshape the squad, whereas at Chelsea it seems he had neither. Make us younger and build the next great Chelsea team...by playing the old Chelsea team and winning stuff!
Roberto Martinez would still be (very narrowly) my first choice if I had to pick right now. But I'll bet the fact that Levy wouldn't have to pay a club any compensation for AVB's services somewhat tilts the scales in his direction right off the bat. AVB's already sitting on a small hill of money thanks to his efforts for Abramovich (I don't recall the exact figure, but it was well into the tens of millions of pounds), so perhaps his wage demands are more reasonable than they would otherwise be.
Last random thought before bed: AVB is, funnily enough, exactly the sort of guy Harry would hire if Harry were a chairman. Highly talented, value at a nadir after recent struggles, can be had for cheap. A classic "buy low" candidate. It's the ciiiiiiiiiiiircle of life...
Absolutely. Anything from here on out is a bonus.
The group games end without a single goalless draw. Even those high priests of low scoring non chance creating anti football, the Spanish, managed to sneak a goal at the end of the Croatia game.
Funny you mention Sturridge, because I wouldn't be surprised at all if Spurs try to buy him this summer.
He didn't seem to enjoy playing out wide, though. Also, I can't imagine Chelsea are going to want to help out Spurs any right now. If AVB makes a go of it Abramovich is going to look like a jackass. Whatever happens, it's going to be fascinating to watch. If Spurs start slow I may have to take my leave of the English media as I'm sure they're sharpening their knives for Villas-Boas and Levy with furious energy. Furious energy!
Watching him on tv, during the Euros, it's become pretty clear that Martinez is very good on tv, very personable, a good speaker. It's made me wonder to what degree that's got him atop everyone's "next big manager" list more than his results.
I think his personality and obvious intelligence are a big part of his appeal, but he also set up Swansea very well and, unlike guys like McLeish or Allardyce, Wigan are more offensive minded and keep the ball on the ground which plays better with the fanbases of "big" clubs. Allardyce has had more success than Martinez, but I can't think of a "big" club whose fan base would want him anywhere near them. With Martinez (and this worked for Brendan Rodgers, too) the perception is the manage a style that is aesthetically suitable to a big club and the degree of difficulty in playing that style at a small club speaks well to their talents. Better to keep the ball on the ground and come in 16th place than to play like Stoke and come in 11th, I guess.
I'm sure that hasn't hurt his visibility. Speaking for myself, though, it's his philosophy, his obvious intelligence and curiosity, and his specific results against the top teams in the league that impress me more than his aggregate results. It all comes back to process for me.
I guess it's not impossible. Would you take him over Jovetic? I still think Adebayor is coming on a permanent, too. Man City have to get him off the books and it's not like suitors are lining up.
I am certain that Robin [Van Persie] will remain with us. If you want to know why I am so certain is that Robin will remain with us is because there is no reason in this world why a great player like Van Persie should go and play for you, in Italy and in your competition. Your football (Serie A) is at an inferior level to the Premier League.
Supposedly an Arsene Wenger quote in the Italian press. He couldn't have actually said this, could he? I'm going to assume liberties were taken by the reporter.
One thing that strikes me about Martinez is that every year I expect Wigan to go down and every year they stay up. That may be damning with faint praise but my perception is he is getting the most out of what he has. 45 points isn't much, but when you have 35 point talent, it's impressive. I also think he is pretty good at avoiding the catastrophic blunder. He seems to get players into a spot where they can play their best. I don't see a lot of Wigan but when I see them they seem organized and clear on what they are trying to do.
If I had real knowledge of the process, then I'd definitely be all about process. Given the limitations of our knowledge, I'd rather go with results first, educated guesses at process second.
I definitely buy the point that Martinez manages a higher-risk style, and one that would fit better with a more talented roster. And I agree he seems like a smart dude. But when you have a guy like Rodgers, who projects intelligence, plays a winning style and came in 11th on a lesser budget, or AVB, who projects intelligence, plays a winning style and won the Primeira Liga, it doesn't seem obvious to me that Martinez should be considered their peer. (And I guess the Liverpool and Tottenham searches are providing some evidence that he isn't, actually.)
England looked to contain and then hit Ukraine on the break and it resembled the game against France. Organized, direct, lacking any kind of subtle creativity and a reliance on shear physicality and athleticism. If the Ukraine goal had been correctly given I think England would have collapsed like they did against Sweden and been on a plane back home. Rooney also looked completely off the pace and unfit. The goal was very Inzaghi like in so far as doing nothing then scoring by being in the right place at the right time.
The summary of the three games would be: Look organized and hard to break down, reliance on set pieces for goals but make the most of what opportunities are created, become easily panicked if a goal is conceded which can snowball into a team wide collapse, have had that little bit of luck average cup teams often need to progress.
That's the belief in the mainstream media. What Spurs could do is, say, agree to a fee of 10 million with City (I'm pulling this # out of my ass just as an example) but Adebayor could get a big chunk of that fee for himself in exchange for lowering his weekly wage. He gets his money, City gets him off the books in anticipation of FFP and he doesn't upset Spurs wage structure while making him easier to sell in the future if the need arises.
True dat. Speaking of which, anybody have any idea how we're going to watch Serie A this season?
I haven't seen Jovetic more than maybe two or three times, and one of those times was as a sub I think. So I don't really have much of an opinion on him. Using hairstyle as a proxy for skill, though - no contest. Jovetic all day.
I wonder if AVB puts us in the mix for Falcao? He pretty much guarantees a Europa League title, I'd say.
ESPN
I think we can know enough about process to have an opinion. Granted, a lot of the positive vibe about Martinez is based on the descriptions of process that come from the horse's mouth (see below), but I only apply a bit of a discount there. Maybe I'm too easily swayed, but I just eat this stuff up:
* Martinez talks a lot about his approach and stuff in this profile/interview with Matt Lawton (no, not that Matt Lawton) of the Daily Mail.
* And there's this piece on ZM from about a month ago. I think it was linked here.
My view is those sources, although they tilt a bit to the puff piece end of the spectrum, provide valuable insight into Martinez's philosophy and approach. Now, I'm using 'process' as a short of shorthand for all that, and maybe I shouldn't. I suppose process includes training methods, scouting, etc. And that stuff is indeed largely opaque. So if that's what you mean, then we agree.
However, I wasn't arguing that results should be ignored. Wigan's string of "shock" results during the run-in (wins over Liverpool, Arsenal, Man United, and Newcastle in the last eight weeks of the season) are another big plus for Martinez. It would be even more impressive if he'd been able to get Wigan to beat a few more of the teams closer to them in the table, but I think a strong finish plays a lot better in the arena of perception than does a late season swoon. (See also: difference in opinion on Redknapp vs Wenger in December compared to in May. If the season had played out exactly in reverse--Spurs finishing on a 10 wins from 11 run before getting crushed by the Manchesters, and Arsenal starting strong but suffering a calamitous string of results over the final six weeks or so--would Harry still have a job?)
Taken in a vacuum, AVB's achievements with Porto certainly dwarf anything Rodgers or Martinez have done. But Porto's a very different situation to Swansea and Wigan. I'm also not sure Rodgers' 11th place finish is all that much more impressive than Wigan's 15th place finish, given that the two were only separated by four points in the table. It also shouldn't be overlooked that Martinez has been given a lot of credit for forging Swansea's identity and style of play before handing over to Sousa and later Rodgers.
-Link
So if he was the 11th best player in the world, would he potentially play without a goalie? Or a right back? Or a left back? Or two right wingers?
a) stop having dual hosts, who
b) would struggle to make the tournament, then
c) give them free qualification, and
d) get seeded
d) because.
Somewhere along the line enough is enough... unless you are going to let Scotland host, then by all means keep doing it.
And with that, I wish you all happy quarter finals.
You do know that a Ireland, Scotland and Wales ########### has entered the bidding for the 2020 Euros?
Hey, it's better than Azerbaijan-Georgia.
It looks like the tournament has already been reserved for Turkey. But you never know, a little political nastiness there in the next 18 months and it's in the bag.
Bud Selig just felt a little twinge in his colon.
Hmmm... Ego runs rampant... maybe it's time to pull the rip cord on this one, Mr. Levy.
They're expanding the tournament to 24 teams so it won't be as bad. They should definitely get rid of the seeding for hosts, though. Also, I still think they should consider staging the Euros the way the NCAA basketball tournament is with cities bidding to host games. It's the easiest way to include a lot of small countries that would otherwise not get to ever host a tournament.
Hmmm... Ego runs rampant... maybe it's time to pull the rip cord on this one, Mr. Levy.
Spurs are making a hash of this, as usual.
How crazy was this rumor? 11, right? This one goes to 11.
AVB is quite the diva, isn't he? He's like a soprano who sang with Callas a few times and decided that her path to mega-stardom was to out diva the once-in-a-century talent.
He should be careful if he wants to work in England again. The Liverpool and THFC jobs don't come up all the time and sports are always churning out a new batch of geniuses so he could be yesterday's news in a hurry. He should take a look where Juande Ramos is managing these days...
edit: Checking the usual Spurs rumor sources there is no consensus as to what's going on now. The only one who knows what's happening would appear to be Levy. AVB, Blanc, Moyes, Capello, Martinez, Ralf Ragnick and even Antoine Koumbouare are getting mentions. Things are nutty right now.
Wouldn't the FA, FIFA and UEFA all have to be ok with this? Not to mention the SPL and every non-Ranger fan in Scotland would be at the Ibrox with pitchforks and torches in about 3 minutes flat.
On AVB and the diva stuff, it's still just unsourced rumors, and there's a big market out there for stories about Villas-Boas being a jackass, so I remain a bit sketpical. I dunno. He certainly could be, and a lot of weird stuff happened at Chelsea, but AVB might also just be negotiating perfectly normally, and then happened to whine for a moment to the wrong person, and now he's a diva in the papers.
-----
On the Euros - hey, there's a football tournament happening! - it seems like everyone assumes they know what will happen in the first three games, and England/Italy is seen as more of a tossup. I don't think there's any way to really argue Greece over Germany, and France seems like the kind of squad that Spain should be able to rip into pieces, but is Portugal / Czech Republic a mismatch on that level?
If I were a betting man, or more correctly, if I were the person who I am but lived somewhere I could engage easily in sports betting, I'd lay some money on the Czechs. I'm seeing 5-to-1 odds for a Czech win against Portugal, and that seems like a pretty good bet. Portugal played very well through three games, but they have flaws, and the Czechs are a reasonable side. I assume the Czechs will sit back and defend, and try to deny space to Nani and Ronaldo, and it's not clear to me that Portugal has lots of backup plans if their wingers aren't running rampant.
My agreement with you is only tempered a bit by the same stories about him coming out during the process for the LFC job search. It could be he's just once bitten, twice shy and is making a lot of demands to protect himself.
If it is to play in the English pyramid, they would need approval from the FA and perhaps UEFA.
If it was to play in Scotland, they would need approval from the SFA and the SPL.
In both cases, the medium term goal would be to move back to Glasgow, I'd think.
MCoA, I think that most observers don't know what to do with the Czechs, and are thinking that they've progressed from a weak group. I wouldn't make Portugal any bigger a favorite than Italy.
Haven't watched him recently, but from what I read Neymar is pretty much a game breaker in South America now. Time to move.
He's great, no doubt. I think Santos would have held on to him for the Copa final and then the World Club Championship had they won that. Now? Maybe time to cash in. The thought of Messi and Neymar together should make a certain club nervous. Nervous enough to pay silly money to keep it from happening, maybe.
Worth pointing out that 5/1 on the Czechs is for an outright win, i.e. extratime loses the bet. And they aren't on the level of Greece... they are at 10/1. Odds on both Germany and Portugal look horrible though.
You can get Spain at almost even for an outright win, which I like. And Italy at 10/11 just to qualify (same as England) also looks good to me.
Couldn't you also interpret that as a reason to suspect the Guardian story? Typical lazy sports journo dusts off old news to fill space! Film at eleven.
On the Euros - hey, there's a football tournament happening! - it seems like everyone assumes they know what will happen in the first three games, and England/Italy is seen as more of a tossup. I don't think there's any way to really argue Greece over Germany, and France seems like the kind of squad that Spain should be able to rip into pieces, but is Portugal / Czech Republic a mismatch on that level?
I agree that the Czechs are the big underdog most likely to pull off an upset. Portugal won't be able to sit back and play their usual counterattacking game. They'll have to take the initiative and bring the game to the Czechs. I always worry a bit about teams that are accustomed to playing on the break who all of the sudden find themselves saddled with the attacking onus.
Possibly, but it all kinds of fit with him. The whole, I want the players to celebrate with me and then the whole I only need the chairman's support when it was clear he'd lost the players...I don't know, he does strike me as fairly arrogant. This is not necessarily a bad trait in a manager, of course, but it's one of the things about him that make me circumspect about his appointment. I don't see why he's a genius but Roberto Martinez is unproven except that Martinez has had to ply his trade with smaller English clubs while Villas-Boas got to bully a league with Porto. If AVB ends up being the guy, I'm behind him 100%, but I'm growing weary of the large contingent of Spurs fan who keep dismissing Martinez as the worst possible choice. Some have threatened to sell their season tickets or start a Tottenham AFC movement if he gets appointed. I see it as complete BS. (Not you, of course, but it's slow at work now and I've had way to much time to scour the blogosphere for scraps of information and to gauge the mood about the different candidates. Blanc seems to be the most popular candidate from what I can gather--except for Pep, of course, which no one thinks is realistic.)
That is a throw down.
Rosell has a serious hard-on for Neymar and lots of connections in Brazil with the last bit of resistance to moving for him (Guardiola) now gone I can see that move happening this summer.
Since 2000 they have combined for a total of 12 managers (13 when Tottenham get a new one), so I would say that those jobs come up all the time.
I think I would take this risk. A penchant for diving never slowed C. Ronaldo down.
I haven't really seen much of Portugal, but I wasn't too impressed with the Czechs. They were crushed by Russia, a team that didn't make it out of the group stage. They beat Greece & Poland but they didn't look great in doing so.
I'd take Greece as the upset team but even I don't see them with a very good shot.
That's been kind of weird for Liverpool but I guess I should amend my statement to say those jobs don't often come up when you're the hot candidate everyone wants. People lose interest.
The type of analysis that Michael Cox does was pretty much completely absent from mainstream media before Jonathan Wilson began to write for the Guardian. You would see tactical analysis in materials designed for coaches (the technical reviews of major tournaments are interesting), but it would almost never be the primary arrow in a mainstream journalist's bow.
As it happens, the situation is quite different in Italy, where tactical analysis has virtually always been a major part of mainstream punditry.
Do you think this kind of public parsing of tactics is why Italy has better managers? (It's not controversial to say Italy has better managers, is it?) The English media seem to be obsessed with man-management, as if you should be able to WILL a team to victory.
#1683: is that the chicken or the egg for the structured defensive style that Italy is known for?
Italian teams played like that long before punditry became ubiquitous, reaching perfection in Helenio Herrera's Grande Inter in the mid-60's. It's probably more an effect of that you have to be aware of tactics to properly appreciate the Italian game.
Do you think this kind of public parsing of tactics is why Italy has better managers? (It's not controversial to say Italy has better managers, is it?)
Italy doesn't have better managers.
Yes! This has been my impression of UK-based journos since I started following it more closely (Cox/Wilson excepted, of course)... Listening to podcasts can sometime be like jumping in a time-travel machine and hearing all about how the 1940s-1950s Yankees had guts, charisma, etc. and that's why they won all those World Series...
As for Spurs, I rather like Martinez, and am a bit confused at the hatred for his possible appointment. It's not (to me) like AVB is leaps and bounds better--or even that he's clearly better. I think there's no way to know that for certain in any definable way. I mean, if you're picking Martinez and not giving Pep an interview, that's one thing, but that's not what's going on here...
I cannot for the life of me figure this out from the on-line sites... If England and Spain win their quarterfinals, do they play each other in the semifinals? I thought that was the case, but was not sure.
Same here. I don't remember whether any evidence emerged that Celebrationgate was legit, but AVB's changing tune with respect to his relationship with the Chelsea higher-ups certainly isn't something he'll want to put on his CV. The one tidbit I do find easy to believe is that AVB is pushing hard for a guarantee that he'll have Modric to boss around.
If AVB ends up being the guy, I'm behind him 100%, but I'm growing weary of the large contingent of Spurs fan who keep dismissing Martinez as the worst possible choice.
Naturally, I agree with this since I think Martinez is the best choice!
No. If Spain beats France, they will play the winner of Czech Republic v Portugal.
If England beats Italy, they will play the winner of Germany v Greece.
They do if you don't count the Scottish managers.
Why doesn't anyone hire English managers then? Maybe the Scots have it over the Italians, but England?
edit: coke to FPH
-Link
They have Brian McBride!
Ah... So, wow. If Greece can pull the upset, England/Italy will be feeling very much like they can walk to the finals.
On a scale of 1-10, I'm guessing England in the finals of the Euros would be a 10 as far as UK buildup/hype, right? It would be the first finals since 1966's WC, right?
Terry Venables! Awesome!
Xenophobia. Except for England, most teams in a league are managed by people from that country. Bundesliga teams are largely managed by Germans, Serie A teams by Italians, etc. Language barrier considerations are real, but can't fully explain the disparity.
(NB: That would be awesome, albeit probably impossible for dozens of reasons.)
Maybe they're confusing Budweiser with Red Bull or Shooty FC, Inc.?
Q: What do Budweiser, Red Bull and Shooty have in common?
A: None of them are beer.
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