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Monday, June 02, 2014

OT: The Soccer Thread June, 2014

It’s go time!

June 12th Brazil v Croatia

June 13th Mexico v Cameroon, Spain v Holland, Chile v Australia

June 14th Colombia v Greece, Ivory Coast v Japan, Uruguay v Costa Rica, England v Italy

June 15th Switzerland v Ecuador, France v Honduras, Argentina v Bosnia-Herzegovina

June 16th Iran v Nigeria, Germany v Portugal, Ghana v USA

June 17th Brazil v Mexico, Belgium v Algeria, Russia v South Korea

June 18th Cameroon v Croatia, Australia v Holland, Spain v Chile

June 19th Colombia v Ivory Coast, Japan v Greece, Uruguay v England

June 20th Italy v Costa Rica, Switzerland v France, Honduras v Ecuador

June 21st Argentina v Iran, Nigeria vs Bosnia-Herzegovina, Germany v Ghana

June 22nd USA v Portugal, Belgium v Russia, South Korea v Algeria

June 23rd Cameroon v Brazil, Croatia v Mexico, Australia v Spain, Holland v Chile

June 24th Greece v Ivory Coast, Japan v Colombia, Costa Rica v England, Italy v Uruguay

June 25th Ecuador v France, Honduras v Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina v Iran, Nigeria v Argentina

June 26th Portugal v Ghana, USA v Germany, Algeria v Russia, South Korea v Belgium

June 28th Group A winner v Group B runner up, Group C winner v Group D runner up

June 29th Group B winner v Group A runner up, Group D winner v Group C runner up

June 30th Group E winner v Group F runner up, Group G winner v Group H runner up

 

Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 02, 2014 at 10:03 AM | 9133 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer, u-s-a u-s-a, world cup

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   2301. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:45 PM (#4728752)
That could have been called.
   2302. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:46 PM (#4728753)
Small injury update from WaPo.

Contrao and Altidore are out. Everyone else up in the air.
   2303. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4728756)
Yes. Fred got the exact same penalty, but Fred had less of a chance to score. #### you Marcelo.
   2304. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4728757)
I'm glad it wasn't, but it would be less dubious than the first one given to Brazil.
   2305. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4728758)
The Ghana mutiny is wrt to wages/bonuses, right?
   2306. zack Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:47 PM (#4728759)
C'mon Marcelo, you might've had a poke if you played through it. Even if it was probably technically worth a penalty.
   2307. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:48 PM (#4728761)
This is definitely the most exciting 0-0 game I've ever seen.
   2308. zack Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:49 PM (#4728763)
This is definitely the most exciting 0-0 game I've ever seen.

I was just thinking how it would be disappointing to have a 0-0 draw, but at least no one was playing for it here.

Chicarrito just made two beautiful plays to keep possession after a long boot forward, we need something like that from out forward(s). Neither were fancy, but they were smart.
   2309. Howling John Shade Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:51 PM (#4728765)
Great game. Brazil had the better of the chances, but I think Mexico deserve the point.
   2310. Swedish Chef Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:51 PM (#4728766)
A win of course could allow them to win the group though.

Why would they want to win the group and possibly meet Spain?
   2311. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:51 PM (#4728767)
So Croatia-Mexico becomes effectively a winner take all game right? (assuming Croatia beat Cameroon). The same assumption about Brazil-Cameroon keeps Brazil in the driver's seat. I'm going to assume that Brazil are going to win the group as they have a 1 goal edge in GD already on Mexico and Cameroon left to play.
   2312. SteveF Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:51 PM (#4728768)
Solid outcome for Mexico. Well done by Ochoa.
   2313. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:52 PM (#4728769)
So Croatia-Mexico becomes effectively a winner take all game right?


Mexico can draw or win the game and advance second in the group. Brazil will almost certainly beat Cameroon, and it's unlikely Mexico will do better than them on GD or goals scored.
   2314. Dale Sams Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:53 PM (#4728770)
A little story of how little respect Soccer used to get. When I was in high school, we had a city tournament. The organizers made our team play two games in one day. The team we played against in the finals had to play THREE games in one day to get there.

Can you imagine a gridiron team being forced to play three games in one day?
   2315. Dale Sams Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:54 PM (#4728774)
This is the best WC I've seen in forever.
   2316. Swedish Chef Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:56 PM (#4728775)
If I was Fred I would switch name to something with a bit more pizazz. Then I might try to get better at this whole playing football thing.
   2317. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:57 PM (#4728776)
Why would they want to win the group and possibly meet Spain?


A legitimate question. Of course, we don't know if Spain will finish second in group B (they almost certainly have to beat Chile, and they are only slight favorites to win that game outright). Also, the winner of the Group A winner against the 2nd place in Group B will likely face Italy, rather than probably Columbia or England. That might be a wash.
   2318. Mefisto Posted: June 17, 2014 at 04:59 PM (#4728779)
I hate rooting for Mexico, but I couldn't help myself today. Great performance by them.
   2319. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:01 PM (#4728781)
I hate rooting for Mexico, but I couldn't help myself today. Great performance by them.


I'm rooting for CONCACAF to show well, and so far we have!

How ####### lucky is Brazil? Could easily be seating on 1 or even zero points.
   2320. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:02 PM (#4728783)
This is the best WC I've seen in forever.


I think it helps that the Brazuca is a good ball. I haven't heard a single complaint about the player's ability to control it and it certainly seems like it's doing everything that players want it to do.

But yeah, this World Cup is awesome.
   2321. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:02 PM (#4728786)
The Ghana mutiny is wrt to wages/bonuses, right?


Al-Smith: What I can confirm is that post-USA game presser was cancelled 6 hrs ago. No official reason given. Not normal. 100% sure all bonus arrangements in Ghana camp sorted. All other reasons local media giving for alleged player mutiny news to me. If alleged problem were that bad, Ghana FA would have issued statement, players would've spoken. That's why I'm brushing it off.
   2322. Howling John Shade Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4728791)
How ####### lucky is Brazil? Could easily be seating on 1 or even zero points.
Or 6. Ochoa saved Mexico a whole bunch of times in that game. MCOA had the game at 1.9 xg - .5 xg in Brazil's favor.
   2323. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:08 PM (#4728792)
Thanks DA, I heard Cameroon almost didn't get on the plane due to issues regarding compensation. I read last night Prince-Boateng was not happy with the selection and implied neither were his team mates.
   2324. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:09 PM (#4728794)
Or 6. Ochoa saved Mexico a whole bunch of times in that game. MCOA had the game at 1.9 xg - .5 xg in Brazil's favor.


True but you'd think Brazil would eventually get a tap in. Kudos to Mexico.
   2325. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:17 PM (#4728800)
Odds have Spain as only about 45% chance to advance (and of course virtually no shot at being 1st). Chile has the other 55%. The minimal likelihoods that the Nederlanders fail to advance and the Aussies succeed in advancing basically cancel each other out.
   2326. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:28 PM (#4728808)
I'd be happy to see Brazil do well, but I have to admit a part of me wants them to crash and burn just because of the snootiness of the 538 system.

It's weird, all of the dumb things that people said about his ability to predict the election are actually true about this one. It insists on a ridiculous level of precision based on a relatively weak data set, and doesn't seem to include the internal checks necessary to recalibrate its expectations.
   2327. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:30 PM (#4728811)
It's weird, all of the dumb things that people said about his ability to predict the election are actually true about this one. It insists on a ridiculous level of precision based on a relatively weak data set, and doesn't seem to include the internal checks necessary to recalibrate its expectations.


I have to wonder if Silver has just said "screw it money" or if he actually believes the stuff he's parroting now. Most people have one genius moment/idea, he's no different.
   2328. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 05:57 PM (#4728815)
Thanks DA, I heard Cameroon almost didn't get on the plane due to issues regarding compensation. I read last night Prince-Boateng was not happy with the selection and implied neither were his team mates.


Yeah I wouldn't be surprised. Ghana was actually dangerous when he was in, their manager got the starting 11 wrong and was slow to react. Should have subbed sooner.
   2329. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:04 PM (#4728818)
Said it when the jerseys were unveiled and seeing it in action confirms Russia in maroon doesn't work for me.
   2330. Howling John Shade Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:04 PM (#4728820)
Yeah I wouldn't be surprised. Ghana was actually dangerous when he was in, their manager got the starting 11 wrong and was slow to react. Should have subbed sooner.
Hopefully they get it together by the time they play Portugal.
   2331. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:10 PM (#4728823)
Is this the first time that Russia and South Korea have played each other since 1953? I'll log off now.
   2332. Sunday silence Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:14 PM (#4728830)
yellow card seemed ridiculous there.
   2333. Sunday silence Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:16 PM (#4728831)
when's the last time we saw a performance like Ochoa's in the last game? I'm sure its happened before, but when is the last time we saw a goalie stop that many point blank shots?
   2334. zack Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:40 PM (#4728839)
Said it when the jerseys were unveiled and seeing it in action confirms Russia in maroon doesn't work for me.

Is there anything behind it? Or do teams just pick whatever now.
   2335. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:44 PM (#4728841)
Russia looks awful. This is Korea, not Spain circa 2009.
   2336. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:46 PM (#4728844)
Close half. I think Russia were a little better.
   2337. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:54 PM (#4728846)
Is there anything behind it? Or do teams just pick whatever now.


From what I can tell it just evolved from red to maroon.
   2338. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:55 PM (#4728847)
I hope Dzagoev gets into the game. Keller would pronounce Zhirkov, "jerk-off" and Dzagoev, "jagh-off."
   2339. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:57 PM (#4728848)
I have to miss the 6 o'clock games this week. How was the first half? Stats indicate it was dire.
   2340. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 06:59 PM (#4728850)
It appears the potential Ghana mutiny is actually just Ghana media misreporting things. So France, there's still an opening for 2014 World Cup Team Mutiny.
   2341. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:01 PM (#4728852)
I have to miss the 6 o'clock games this week. How was the first half? Stats indicate it was dire.

It was okay. Not particularly good, but not the worst. If either team could finish, there could have been three of four goals. At least.
   2342. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:02 PM (#4728853)
I thought Ochoa was very good but hardly transcendent. Most of the point blank shots were very close to him and should have been stopped.
   2343. Obo Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:02 PM (#4728854)
It was pretty dire. Lots of midfield passing with little ambition being shown by either team for long stretches.
   2344. Obo Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:12 PM (#4728859)
Better this half though. Hope they can keep going like this. The heat can't be helping.
   2345. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:15 PM (#4728860)
Someone should really let Akinfeev know that he's allowed to catch the ball. If he keeps spilling it on these shots from distance they're going to poke one of them in eventually.
   2346. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:19 PM (#4728862)
South Korea is putting up a strong fight.
   2347. Guts Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4728867)
Someone should really let Akinfeev know that he's allowed to catch the ball. If he keeps spilling it on these shots from distance they're going to poke one of them in eventually.

Turned out to be worse than that.
   2348. Howling John Shade Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4728868)
Someone should really let Akinfeev know that he's allowed to catch the ball. If he keeps spilling it on these shots from distance they're going to poke one of them in eventually.
He may be allowed, but it does not appear that he is able.
   2349. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4728869)
What a howler!
   2350. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:24 PM (#4728870)
Akinfeev's failure to hang on to the long strikes finally bites him.
   2351. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:25 PM (#4728871)
Someone should really let Akinfeev know that he's allowed to catch the ball. If he keeps spilling it on these shots from distance they're going to poke one of them in eventually.

Yeah, so about that...

My best prediction yet!
   2352. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:26 PM (#4728872)
Akinfeev is rated at 17.6m euros? Sure hasn't looked it.
   2353. DA Baracus Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:28 PM (#4728873)
I thought Robert Green was English.
   2354. Biff, highly-regarded young guy Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:30 PM (#4728876)
And now South Korea's keeper can't hang on to one and Russia score!
   2355. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 07:32 PM (#4728877)
Hey defenders, maybe instead of standing there with your arms in the air you should try to STOP THE GUY FROM SHOOTING.
   2356. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4728895)
And so...a keeper howler probably means another date with Germany for ol' Fabio.
   2357. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:09 PM (#4728896)
So this is probably BS but twitter rumor is that Jozy might play sunday. Honestly after looking at the retweats it appears that @alawradio (amy lawrence's radio show's twitter, she's awful) retweeted (giving it legs) a tweet of a guy who got Altidore confused with Besler because the quote is "NYTs reporter talking with Jozy says he was taken off as a precaution".

Uh, he was taken off on a stretcher after going down like he was shot.
   2358. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:25 PM (#4728898)
Mourinho gets kind of xenophobic.

Among the criticism thrown Pepe's way by Mourinho was the fact that he was not born Portuguese (he is a naturalized citizen), so he should have been on even better behavior.

"The fact that he's not even a Portuguese man, I think that should put even more pressure on him to behave in a certain way, which he didn't," Mourinho said.


What the hell is that supposed to mean?
   2359. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:29 PM (#4728900)
what the hell is that supposed to mean?


Latins are hot blooded and thus prone to anger and outbursts and yet confusingly also better at day baseball, despite the hot blood.
   2360. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:30 PM (#4728901)
BTW, did it get a mention yet that the Cosmos beat the Red Bulls 3-0? 3-0!
   2361. zack Posted: June 17, 2014 at 08:48 PM (#4728908)
BTW, did it get a mention yet that the Cosmos beat the Red Bulls 3-0? 3-0!

For a second I was pissed because that just reminded me I missed the open cup game here tonight...until I looked outside and it's raining sideways at 40mph.

Looks like they started playing anyway
   2362. zack Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:04 PM (#4728913)
They're resuming, somehow. If you've ever wanted to watch an MLS team play in the middle of a lake into 35mph wind, here's your chance.

The goalie just tried to throw a ball to his RB and it started blowing back to him before it reached the d-man. I'm pretty sure I just saw a pass end up 20 feet short of it's target and start floating.
   2363. ursus arctos Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:21 PM (#4728922)
For me, Mourinho's comment is unsurprising for one who grew up in a family that was very comfortable with the dictatorship and bemoaned its passing. He really is an unpleasant human being in many ways.
   2364. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:22 PM (#4728923)
Just a bit of self-plugging here, but I'm posting writeups every evening about the day's matches. Some of it summarizes comments that I'm posting here. But a lot of is unique. Would love feedback.

http://www.heartachewithhardwork.com/2014/06/world-cup-day-six-goals-are-overrated.html
   2365. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:26 PM (#4728925)
"If not for the Iran-Nigeria game, this would be the worst match of the tournament."

Those were two of my three favourite matches in the tournament so far and I've watched every game <.<
   2366. ursus arctos Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:32 PM (#4728930)
Good, succinct write-ups. I particularly agree with your points on Brazil shooting straight at Ochoa (there were at least two occasions when the player had time, but snapped at his shot) and the lunacy of defenders raising their arms while the ball is in play in the six yard box.

Predictions are a mug's game, though.
   2367. ursus arctos Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:32 PM (#4728931)
[double post]
   2368. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 17, 2014 at 09:42 PM (#4728934)
They're resuming, somehow. If you've ever wanted to watch an MLS team play in the middle of a lake into 35mph wind, here's your chance.

Nobody here watched 2012's Big Ten soccer title game, did you? It was on the Big Ten Network! Michigan vs. Michigan State, in November on the Northwestern campus. The wind was hilarious.
   2369. Mefisto Posted: June 17, 2014 at 10:51 PM (#4728963)
Youth soccer in SoCal plays lots of National Cup games in Lancaster, CA. The wind there is unbelievable. Two stories. One time our goalie punted the ball and it went back over her own goal for a corner kick. Another time one of the parents opened his car door and the wind blew the door off the car. Really.

It's an absolute joke to play under those conditions, especially for younger kids.
   2370. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:03 PM (#4728964)
Those 95%+ odds of Brazil to win each game, as determined by SPI, look silly now. Having watched the 2 games I would guess in retrospect the odds of them winning both combined would be closer to 50% than 90%.
   2371. Textbook Editor Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:05 PM (#4728965)
These Rochester announcers are hysterical.
   2372. tshipman Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:06 PM (#4728966)
Those 95%+ odds of Brazil to win each game, as determined by SPI, look silly now. Having watched the 2 games I would guess in retrospect the odds of them winning both combined would be closer to 50% than 90%.


How will you be marketing your hindsight projection system?
   2373. greenback calls it soccer Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:07 PM (#4728968)
How will you be marketing your hindsight projection system?

Presumably he'll say it's deadly accurate.
   2374. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:09 PM (#4728969)
The wind there is unbelievable.


Now is as good a time as any to post these youtube classics.
   2375. Textbook Editor Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:09 PM (#4728970)
So what's the scenario where Brazil doesn't get out of group play? Is there one? Or would FIFA basically pull out all the stops to ensure this doesn't happen?
   2376. AuntBea Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:10 PM (#4728973)
How will you be marketing your hindsight projection system?
.

Hilarious. We were all complaining about these projections before the WC started.
   2377. Mefisto Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:16 PM (#4728975)
Now is as good a time as any to post these youtube classics


Those are good. It's pretty much what playing in Lancaster is like.
   2378. madvillain Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:20 PM (#4728976)
Hilarious. We were all complaining about these projections before the WC started.


it's hard to predict most things, harder than elections or even baseball really. that said, those odds didn't really pass the smell test, rather go with vegas until they find a better way to translate the regions.
   2379. Sunday silence Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:36 PM (#4728984)
a fun blog, Baldrick.
   2380. Baldrick Posted: June 17, 2014 at 11:47 PM (#4728987)
So what's the scenario where Brazil doesn't get out of group play? Is there one? Or would FIFA basically pull out all the stops to ensure this doesn't happen?

It's pretty unlikely. They would have to lose to Cameroon, and 538 says they only have a 2% chance of losing to Cameroon. So if they played FIFTY games, Cameroon would only win one of them. Because, hey, that's believable.

But seriously, losing to Cameroon is not likely. And even if they lost, there's plenty of scenarios where they still go through.
   2381. tshipman Posted: June 18, 2014 at 12:26 AM (#4729003)
So if they played FIFTY games, Cameroon would only win one of them. Because, hey, that's believable.


I do think it's believable that if they played 50 games in Brazil, Cameroon would only win one.
   2382. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 12:33 AM (#4729007)
I do think it's believable that if they played 50 games in Brazil, Cameroon would only win one.


you can make that bet now. The odds have Cameroon at >5% to win the game.

   2383. puck Posted: June 18, 2014 at 12:35 AM (#4729008)
How ####### lucky is Brazil? Could easily be seating on 1 or even zero points.

Or 6. Ochoa saved Mexico a whole bunch of times in that game. MCOA had the game at 1.9 xg - .5 xg in Brazil's favor.


Thanks for posting that, I was wondering about that post, thinking Mexico played well, but Brazil seemed quite unlucky not to score.
   2384. puck Posted: June 18, 2014 at 12:39 AM (#4729010)
One thing I thought left out of the "is Ghana super awesome or are we just ####\" discussion is that Ghana had very impressive overall quickness. (Which made Boye being stuck in cement on Dempsey's goal even more surprising.) And the US does not seem particularly gifted in that area.
   2385. tshipman Posted: June 18, 2014 at 12:50 AM (#4729015)
you can make that bet now. The odds have Cameroon at >5% to win the game.


Are you seriously quibbling over the difference between 2% and 5.5%?
   2386. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 01:04 AM (#4729018)
Are you seriously quibbling over the difference between 2% and 5.5%?


Yes, they are in fact very different odds.
   2387. tshipman Posted: June 18, 2014 at 01:07 AM (#4729020)
I've never really been a sports bettor, but it's my understanding that you should be getting more than a 3% vig on your bets or you will shortly no longer be a sports bettor.
   2388. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 01:29 AM (#4729028)
I've never really been a sports bettor, but it's my understanding that you should be getting more than a 3% vig on your bets or you will shortly no longer be a sports bettor.


A traditional bookie takes the vig, not the bettor.
Depending on how you bet (for example, if you use peer to peer sites like BetFair), there need not be anywhere near a 3% gap between the odds as you believe them and the odds as they are posted as available. For example, on a peer-to-peer site I used to use, they only took a % of winnings (net of losses) over the day. Other sites might take a .5% from each side of each transaction.

At any rate, the discussion about odds was meant to be academic, I didn't actually expect you to make a bet. I just wanted to point out that there is mathematically a very large real world difference between a 2% chance of something happening versus a 5% chance. They are not roughly equivalent. Insurance companies for example make their living on much finer distinctions than that when they ensure against unlikely outcomes.
   2389. Swedish Chef Posted: June 18, 2014 at 02:59 AM (#4729035)
I've never really been a sports bettor, but it's my understanding that you should be getting more than a 3% vig on your bets or you will shortly no longer be a sports bettor.

As soon as you can find a posted odds (after all fees, so the Betfair ones need to be post-fee) that differs from the true odds you can make money, and then you have to use the Kelly criterion to determine the biggest bet you can make (basically how much of edge you have divided by the odds). Betting on rare events is very much an exercise in bankroll management, because it is easy to lose all you have betting on things where you have an edge.

When you get 50-1 on a event with probability 0.05, the Kelly criterion says that 3% of your bankroll is the optimal bet (optimal in the sense that it maximizes your expected winnings, not necessarily optimal for any sane humans risk profile).
   2390. cheng Posted: June 18, 2014 at 06:38 AM (#4729048)
Question from a Korea fan: Korea benefits from the remaining group schedule, right? As in, if they can beat Algeria and have Belgium beat Russia, then Belgium doesn't have much to play for in the last game and might put out a B team against Korea? If Korea had to play Belgium then Algeria, then Russia would benefit from the same (potential) dynamic, so I should consider myself lucky the draw worked out this way. Am I missing something?
   2391. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 18, 2014 at 08:52 AM (#4729077)
Question from a Korea fan: Korea benefits from the remaining group schedule, right? As in, if they can beat Algeria and have Belgium beat Russia, then Belgium doesn't have much to play for in the last game and might put out a B team against Korea? If Korea had to play Belgium then Algeria, then Russia would benefit from the same (potential) dynamic, so I should consider myself lucky the draw worked out this way. Am I missing something?

Well, I guess that all makes sense except that if Korea beats Algeria then Belgium will want to win the group to avoid Germany in the KO round so I doubt they will field a B team. (Belgium doesn't really have a B team, anyway. I think a team that can go to Mirallas, Fellaini, Vermaelen, Mertens, Januzaj, etc. as second options kind of explodes the whole idea of a weakened side.)
   2392. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 18, 2014 at 08:55 AM (#4729079)
For me, Mourinho's comment is unsurprising for one who grew up in a family that was very comfortable with the dictatorship and bemoaned its passing. He really is an unpleasant human being in many ways.

So, a royalist, an oligarch, a complete asshole and a probable fascist sympathizer. Legends! Soccer is a bit like Game of Thrones. The good guys are not going to win. In fact, there may not even be good guys.
   2393. Juilin Sandar to Conkling Speedwell (Arjun) Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:17 AM (#4729099)
Which (British TV) World Cup pundit are you?

I got Alan Hansen which...well, could do worse.
   2394. The Anthony Kennedy of BBTF (Scott) Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:39 AM (#4729117)
Fabio Cannavaro. I think that's good? At least I won a World Cup!
   2395. CWS Keith plans to boo your show at the Apollo Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:40 AM (#4729118)
Yeah, calling the Brazil-at- % 45 bunk is not an ex-post criticism. Heck, even the non-538 stat guys (MCoA included) were scratching their heads on that one.

On the US Open Cup, the non-MLS teams still alive are:

NY Cosmos
Richmond Kickers
Rochester Rhinos
Pittsburgh Riverhounds
Carolina Railhawks
Arizona United SC (they really just punted on this name, huh?)
PSA Elite (no wikipedia page)
Atlanta Silverbacks
Minnesota United FC (to differentiate from Arizona)

It seems to me there's a good chunk of MLS teams who still don't give a #### about this competition, so maybe one or more of the above can make a deep run.
   2396. Dan Lee is some pumkins Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:48 AM (#4729128)
I guess the Columbus-Indianapolis Open Cup game was bonkers last night. Columbus went 1-0 up in the fourth minute, had a guy sent off later in the first half, and allowed a second half goal to send it to extra time.

In the 110th minute, the Crew had a second player sent off and were down to 9 men. They won anyway...got the game winner on a 114th minute penalty.
   2397. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:08 AM (#4729143)
Spurs open the season against West Ham. Don't let them print any more t-shirts, lads! 'Arry makes his return with QPR a week later and then...Liverpool!
   2398. Crispix reaches boiling point with lackluster play Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:10 AM (#4729149)
I will use one of the quickly-invisible pre-flip posts to make the uninteresting observation that Derek Rae and Ian Darke sound incredible similar.
   2399. zack Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:30 AM (#4729164)
On the US Open Cup, the non-MLS teams still alive are:

Only the Cosmos, Rhinos, Silverbacks and Railhawks have played their 4th rounds, the rest play today, all against MLS teams.

PSA Elite (no wikipedia page)

PSA are an USASA team, meaning they are real amateurs (unlike the PDL which is more or less amateurs).

   2400. zack Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:30 AM (#4729165)
Floop.
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