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Monday, June 02, 2014

OT: The Soccer Thread June, 2014

It’s go time!

June 12th Brazil v Croatia

June 13th Mexico v Cameroon, Spain v Holland, Chile v Australia

June 14th Colombia v Greece, Ivory Coast v Japan, Uruguay v Costa Rica, England v Italy

June 15th Switzerland v Ecuador, France v Honduras, Argentina v Bosnia-Herzegovina

June 16th Iran v Nigeria, Germany v Portugal, Ghana v USA

June 17th Brazil v Mexico, Belgium v Algeria, Russia v South Korea

June 18th Cameroon v Croatia, Australia v Holland, Spain v Chile

June 19th Colombia v Ivory Coast, Japan v Greece, Uruguay v England

June 20th Italy v Costa Rica, Switzerland v France, Honduras v Ecuador

June 21st Argentina v Iran, Nigeria vs Bosnia-Herzegovina, Germany v Ghana

June 22nd USA v Portugal, Belgium v Russia, South Korea v Algeria

June 23rd Cameroon v Brazil, Croatia v Mexico, Australia v Spain, Holland v Chile

June 24th Greece v Ivory Coast, Japan v Colombia, Costa Rica v England, Italy v Uruguay

June 25th Ecuador v France, Honduras v Switzerland, Bosnia-Herzegovina v Iran, Nigeria v Argentina

June 26th Portugal v Ghana, USA v Germany, Algeria v Russia, South Korea v Belgium

June 28th Group A winner v Group B runner up, Group C winner v Group D runner up

June 29th Group B winner v Group A runner up, Group D winner v Group C runner up

June 30th Group E winner v Group F runner up, Group G winner v Group H runner up

 

Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 02, 2014 at 10:03 AM | 9133 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: soccer, u-s-a u-s-a, world cup

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   2701. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: June 18, 2014 at 07:46 PM (#4730039)
[repost] Obviously, up a man helps, but yikes, Croatia might have scored 8 in this game ...
   2702. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 18, 2014 at 07:47 PM (#4730040)
Would Mexico be favored over Croatia?

That's a tough one. I think Mexico will have their hands full with Mandzucic on corners but, man, that game is going to be tight.
   2703. The John Wetland Memorial Death (CoB) Posted: June 18, 2014 at 07:49 PM (#4730041)
Well, there's my answer from the announcers ... you can get a red card for head-butting your own teammate.

Cameroon turned into a dumpster fire ...
   2704. DA Baracus Posted: June 18, 2014 at 07:58 PM (#4730046)
They suffered a lot of weird infighting and insurrection against Bradley, too.


El-Hadary had a weird blow up but other than that there weren't problems. He was pretty respected by his players and the nation.

Anyways, let's not let this distract us from CAF having teams go head to head based on FIFA rankings instead of something that makes sense.
   2705. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 18, 2014 at 08:19 PM (#4730056)
I think CAF is weird for having their playoff system at all. I guess I'm not caught up on their using the rankings since most confederations use some kind of rankings to create groups. They'd be better off going to some kind of UEFA system but that has its own problems because they have so many countries but not a lot of slots for the Cup so a group would be too large for the amount of international breaks you get to play them. African soccer is a mess but I'm not sure there's an easy answer to make their WC qualifying more sane. Maybe use performance in the last AFCON/AFCON qualifying to set the seedings instead of FIFA's goofy rankings? At least in that scenario the ranking would have been tangibly earned if no less problematic.
   2706. madvillain Posted: June 18, 2014 at 08:19 PM (#4730058)
i dont know how to help you, they never attacked with pace, never threatened to dra close in this game, and were uminspiring, if you think this was a solid effort not sure you will enjoy much of this world cup,and chile is arguable the 5th rated south american team going into this tourney so not only was spain lacklasture they were so against a less than stellar opponent


edit: unnecessary snark

Chile is really good. Spain isn't head and shoulder above the world anymore.
   2707. simon bedford Posted: June 18, 2014 at 08:26 PM (#4730064)
i dont think chile is "really good" and i dont think spain is top ten, so its the not terrible beating no longer that great, many reasons for spains deline, but they were lifeless in this one, how anyone could watch this performance and declare them the better team is beyond me. i suppose alot of my bias against chile is south americas dismal showing at the last world cup,,,
   2708. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:31 PM (#4730085)
Would Mexico be favored over Croatia? Its win or go home because no way Cameroon beats Brazil - but then again, didn't think Spain would be on 0 points either.


Croatia is favored. But Mexico only needs a draw to advance. Betting odds say Croatia about 39% to get the win and advance (assuming Brazil at least draws Cameroon of course, which seems pretty safe).
   2709. madvillain Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:33 PM (#4730090)
I have no idea what ESPN3 is showing right now it's I think a shot of the Spanish team's bus and the mic seems like it's literally sitting right next to the engine fan. Awesome programming.
   2710. President of the David Eckstein Fan Club Posted: June 18, 2014 at 09:39 PM (#4730094)
It's never going to happen, but I would greatly enjoy a Cameroon victory over Brazil knocking the hosts out
   2711. Textbook Editor Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:09 PM (#4730106)
I think my math on this is correct...

1) If Brazil were to lose to Cameroon by 1 goal and Croatia and Mexico tie, Mexico wins the group on points and Croatia would advance based on GD.

2) Mexico could advance even if they lost to Croatia, provided Brazil loses by 3 goals to Cameroon and Mexico loses by just 1 to Croatia.

#2 seems a pretty unlikely combination of events.

#1... Well, if Cameroon parks the bus, gets a but lucky and hits 1 on the break, then plays 0-0-11 the rest of the way... Eh, it's a possibility.

It would be the height of hysterical for Brazil to be knocked out in the Group stage.
   2712. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:17 PM (#4730109)
1) If Brazil were to lose to Cameroon by 1 goal and Croatia and Mexico tie, Mexico wins the group on points and Croatia would advance based on GD.


The odds of these combining to happen is supposedly about 1.5%. An early red card + penalty on a "last defender" foul plus parking the bus might get it done for Cameroon. It's never impossible.
   2713. ursus arctos Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:26 PM (#4730114)
It becomes marginally more likely if Brazil decide that they would rather play the first placed team from the Chile Holland group and therefore set out to play for a draw.

The sub-Saharan CAF teams are tremendously hampered by their kleptocratic FAs, who make bizarre personnel decisions, starve the team of resources and in general do everything to encourage an equally venal approach by the players. Nigeria is likely the least affected, but only because their talent pool is so large. It is hard to seem them progressing until this fundamental problem is resolved.
   2714. Textbook Editor Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:27 PM (#4730115)
The odds of these combining to happen is supposedly about 1.5%. An early red card + penalty on a "last defender" foul plus parking the bus might get it done for Cameroon. It's never impossible.


What would be very interesting is if it happened that Brazil was down a goal in the last 10 minutes or so... Do Croatia and Mexico sort of look at each other and say... "You know, if we draw here, we could both go through..."

Mexico, of course, is through with a draw if Brazil draws, while Croatia would be out with a draw, and I'd guess Croatia would want to trust in themselves over Cameroon holding on to win, but, still, could be an interesting angle.

But, suffice to say, there's not a snowball's chance in hell Brazil ever loses that game. There would be a penalty called for breathing on a guy wrong in stoppage time so Brazil could equalize and go through.
   2715. Baldrick Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:33 PM (#4730116)
I'm glad that the Group A games come after the Group B games. It's not particularly likely, but Brazil COULD finish second. And if Chile-Netherlands knew this before they started their game, they would seriously both have a strong incentive to try and lose.
   2716. Spivey Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:36 PM (#4730119)
Croatia getting really ###### by the refs opening day upsets me. We could (should?) be in a situation where Brazil has to blitz Cameroon to advance.

As for Chile vs. Spain, I think the simple fact is that teams don't fear Spain and the tiki taka any more. Yeah Spain may have had the best expected goals, but they did not play that well. They gave away possession a ton in their own half, creating dangerous chances for Chile. I do think Chile went to park the bus mode a little too much. Seemed like they never tried to play out of the back, they just kicked it deep all the time. I loved Alexis Sanchez's workrate, though.

Casillas starting was a huge mistake. I would have told you that before the game, and I think he deserves much of the blame for the second goal.
   2717. ursus arctos Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:41 PM (#4730120)
Baldrick, the reverse of that is Brazil will actually know what result will get them which opponent, which I find to be suboptimal. To avoid shenanigans, all four matches should be simultaneous, but that will never work for television.
   2718. Spivey Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:45 PM (#4730122)
Also, I "get" expected goals, but I don't give a team credit for squandering good chances. Yeah, that means if they played again, Spain would/should be favored. Which I agree with. But Spain does not deserve "credit" for Busquets missing a ####### sitter. Finishing chances is a big component of playing well.
   2719. Spivey Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:46 PM (#4730123)
Baldrick, the reverse of that is Brazil will actually know what result will get them which opponent, which I find to be suboptimal. To avoid shenanigans, all four matches should be simultaneous, but that will never work for television.


I agree with your concern in theory, but I think Chile and Netherlands are close enough in quality to not really matter. Especially since Brazil cannot play for a tie - a loss will very possibly send them home.
   2720. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:47 PM (#4730125)
If form holds, the top half of the bracket will hold Brazil, Germany, France, Chile, Columbia, England/Uruguay/Costa Rica, Bosnia, and Russia.
The bottom half: Argentina, Netherlands, Italy, Belgium, Portugal/USA, Ivory Coast, Switzerland, Mexico/Croatia

The top half of the bracket looks a bit better to me. Of course, a few teams are certain to switch around before all is said and done.
   2721. Textbook Editor Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:56 PM (#4730130)
It becomes marginally more likely if Brazil decide that they would rather play the first placed team from the Chile Holland group and therefore set out to play for a draw.


To be honest, I'm not sure which of those teams is the easier draw for Brazil; I think the answer may be "neither."

Now perhaps if they looked a step ahead to who their quarterfinal opponent might be based on where they fell in the group, and fancied one team over another, they might be inclined to play for the draw, but a draw might still leave them top of the group if Mexico draws (because they'd likely still hold the goals scored tiebreaker).
   2722. AuntBea Posted: June 18, 2014 at 10:59 PM (#4730132)
Most likely QF opponent for Brazil if they win their group: Colombia or England
Most likely QF if they lose: Italy or Ivory Coast.

I'm not sure there is much to choose from there.

Edit: I really doubt that Brazil would play strategically, no matter who their opponent might be next. This is the World Cup, played in front of their own fans! They want to win every game by 30 goals. I'd be much much more concerned about other teams strategically playing to lose or draw.
   2723. Sunday silence Posted: June 18, 2014 at 11:37 PM (#4730144)
come to think of it, I dont ever recall Brazil playing that way in a group game. As aunt Bea says they pretty much go out to win because that's who they are. Even if this tourney were in Europe, that's how they'd play.

Speaking of comebacks: how do we officially count this? i.e. does the HOL/AUS game count as two comebacks because each team came back and went ahead?
   2724. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:06 AM (#4730154)
Also, I "get" expected goals, but I don't give a team credit for squandering good chances. Yeah, that means if they played again, Spain would/should be favored. Which I agree with. But Spain does not deserve "credit" for Busquets missing a ####### sitter. Finishing chances is a big component of playing well.

Agreed. And like I said above, I don't think that the xG stuff means Spain 'deserved' to win. I was just trying to respond to the idea that there was something fundamentally and essentially wrong. There wasn't. They played a mediocre game of Spanish Football (TM) and were really terrible at finishing. Do that against a very good team like Chile and you'll deservedly lose. But it doesn't indicate a crisis, or a disaster, or anything.

The last 40 minutes against the Dutch: THAT was disastrous. But other than that, they played fine (not great, but fine). But because they destroyed their margin of error in their truly terrible 40 minutes they couldn't afford to just play fine.

I also totally agree that some of the xG discrepancy has to do with the persistent two-goal margin. If any of Spain's good chances had gone in, Chile likely would have tried a bit more aggressively to score. That said, I'm not sure Chile's attacking weakness in the second half was all due to a major shift in tactics. I also think Spain just got a lot better at pressing when they lost possession and shut them down better. After all, that's how they got all those clean sheets in the past. I'd need to re-watch it to see how much it was one vs. the other.

On the other question, I don't think Brazil care even a little bit about gaming their opposition. They expect to beat everyone, and will want to put on a show in this game to prove they are the best team in the world. And frankly, getting a strong game in to help the team start functioning a little more smoothly is far more important for them than any marginal oppositional advantage.
   2725. simon bedford Posted: June 19, 2014 at 04:01 AM (#4730205)
the two sports shows here in toronto spent a little time analyzing why the spanish played so awful, both agreed the attacking was awful, no pace no speed no pressure, no confidence in their attack and zilch in finishing, both agreed that spanish under 21s success meant the future wasnt that bleak , both agreed spain is no longer a major force in soccer and that the team couldnt be ranked in the top 10 , again not sure what chilean game you were watching the first 20 minutes of the second half contained two decent scoring chances both by chile the spanish defense remained poor the entire game and they lost to a team that simply isnt a dominating side, this spanish team just played very poorly in its first two matches.
   2726. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 06:44 AM (#4730210)
Allowing three decent chances in a half when you need to not concede three goals is good execution by Chile. Why would they care to increase their xG? In the same way, Spain needed to create way more than they did to have a realistic chance to score three, they had nothing like Belgium's plan B. They ensured their fiasco by playing "well" against a team that let them. Their disaster and fiasco was in not adapting to the adverse situation they were in.
   2727. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:16 AM (#4730216)
One of the Irish talking heads had a fair point on the Song red card -- didn't excuse his behavior, but pointed out that Mandzukic clearly decided not to go forward to participate in the counter attack (he was ~5 yards 'ahead' of Song when the break started), instead going sideways to cut off Song, which should have been a free kick (or advantage I suppose) for Cameroon (edit: Cameroon, not Chile. Obviously).
   2728. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:40 AM (#4730219)
One of the Irish talking heads had a fair point on the Song red card

I don't think that's a fair point. Mandzucic was just screening Song off the play which is pretty standard stuff. Song's reaction to that was kind of insane.
   2729. 'zop sympathizes with the wrong ####### people Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:49 AM (#4730224)
Random thought: my general sense is that xG is a crap model when it comes to international play and doesn't work. I think maybe for the premier league, where talent (and style) is tightly clustered, it may work as a crude approximation to ignore finishing ability and assume chance quality based upon the inputs he uses; in essence, he can take advantage of the principle that shot percentages in a low variance league regress to a mean because everyone is very close in ability and teams seek to optimize chances by increasing the difficult shots taken by the best finishers; I.e., the finishers are all the same (or close enough for g'v'm't work) and the intangible elements effecting chance quality all point in the direction making the approximation more accurate.

In international play, this is obviously not so. The variance in true finishing ability is huge; tactics and styles vary wildly, and I'm not even sure if teams have enough time to tweak their shot taking to a game theory-optimal pattern, all of which probably results in a much greater variance of "true" shooting percentages. Any model that looks at Spain and the Netherlands, and assumes that similar shots from each team will have a similar success rate, is busted, and I don't think club soccer will make that difference pop out because you'd never have a team as unbalanced as, say, the Netherlands, in your club sample.
   2730. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:51 AM (#4730225)
Why the Jabulani sucked and the new ball doesn't

Furtado posted this as a regular story but I don't think anyone saw it.
   2731. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:55 AM (#4730227)
Common sense prevails.

I think, at least. I could be wrong.
   2732. DA Baracus Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:56 AM (#4730230)
   2733. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 07:57 AM (#4730231)
Oops.

I've never heard of half those guys. Micah Richards, captain! Daily Fail, indeed.
   2734. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 08:05 AM (#4730234)
With that jibe, Shooty now owes us the US starting eleven in Qatar 2022.
   2735. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 08:07 AM (#4730236)
With that jibe, Shooty now owes us the US starting eleven in Qatar 2022.

Yeah? Come and collect, sucker! The number of 14 year old soccer players I know is approximately zero. Unlike the Daily Fail, I can admit I have no freakin idea.
   2736. Random Transaction Generator Posted: June 19, 2014 at 08:40 AM (#4730242)
Does there seem to be more scoring from 2nd-half substitutes than in previous tournaments?
   2737. Commissioner Bud Black Beltre Hillman Posted: June 19, 2014 at 08:53 AM (#4730248)
I don't think that's a fair point. Mandzucic was just screening Song off the play which is pretty standard stuff.
By the rules, it was a foul.
Song's reaction to that was kind of insane.
Not disagreeing, nor was the talking head.
   2738. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 09:16 AM (#4730276)
I think it's at least fair to say Del Bosque's coaching job this round was absolutely terrible. Spain didn't come ready to play, clearly had some players on the field that should not have been there (Torres and Casillas at least, and maybe others depending on how you feel), and Del Bosque seemingly had no way to motivate the players when things started to go against them. Probably to me this was most illustrated in the last 20 minutes of the game against the Netherlands, where they just seemed to give up almost completely. In many ways the tournament was lost right there. The huge GD meant they knew they had to beat Chile, thereby putting a lot of extra pressure on the players, especially when they went down early.
   2739. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 09:49 AM (#4730306)
   2740. ursus arctos Posted: June 19, 2014 at 10:18 AM (#4730330)
2736, as of yesterday, there had been ten goals scored by substitutes, which is definitely a record pace. I believe that the total for the 2010 tournament was around 14.

Climate likely has something to do with it, as well as the overall rise in offense, and an apparent trend by teams who are leading to press their advantage, rather than sitting on a lead.
   2741. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 19, 2014 at 10:23 AM (#4730339)
So freaking jealous. To be young, rich and famous - and to be able to own a piece of your favorite team.

Spain is still one of the best teams in the world. They had a really, really terrible two games. All of those guys that played those two group matches are regulars on the best club teams in the world. Their U21 teams are still the best in the world. They just need a retooling and a recharge.
   2742. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 10:36 AM (#4730352)
Spain is still one of the best teams in the world. They had a really, really terrible two games. All of those guys that played those two group matches are regulars on the best club teams in the world. Their U21 teams are still the best in the world. They just need a retooling and a recharge.

Yeah, they'll be fine. The margin from being the best team in the world to not the best team is really, really small. Even in 2010 they lose that final if Robben gets two more inches of lift on his shot. There's not much separating the very best teams in the world so any slippage becomes exaggerated.
   2743. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: June 19, 2014 at 10:45 AM (#4730360)
I think it's at least fair to say Del Bosque's coaching job this round was absolutely terrible. Spain didn't come ready to play, clearly had some players on the field that should not have been there (Torres and Casillas at least, and maybe others depending on how you feel), and Del Bosque seemingly had no way to motivate the players when things started to go against them. Probably to me this was most illustrated in the last 20 minutes of the game against the Netherlands, where they just seemed to give up almost completely. In many ways the tournament was lost right there. The huge GD meant they knew they had to beat Chile, thereby putting a lot of extra pressure on the players, especially when they went down early.


I think that's fair but I also think there was a limit to what he could have done. I think it was a bit similar to last year's Yankees where his options just weren't there. He had to ride with what he had and guys just got a little older and a little slower. We saw it a bit at the 2012 Euros and some of what we saw at both Barca and Real Madrid the last couple of years the whispers have been out there.

As noted they were going to have a tournament like this at some point and while it sucks to have it happen at a World Cup this allows them to move onto the next phase.
   2744. Rennie's Tenet Posted: June 19, 2014 at 10:51 AM (#4730367)
...the US starting eleven in Qatar 2022.


Easy. Eleven people who have never been in my kitchen.
   2745. tshipman Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:04 AM (#4730378)
I think that's fair but I also think there was a limit to what he could have done. I think it was a bit similar to last year's Yankees where his options just weren't there. He had to ride with what he had and guys just got a little older and a little slower. We saw it a bit at the 2012 Euros and some of what we saw at both Barca and Real Madrid the last couple of years the whispers have been out there.

As noted they were going to have a tournament like this at some point and while it sucks to have it happen at a World Cup this allows them to move onto the next phase.


You think he had to play Casillas? (looks it up) apparently he's the captain, so I guess he did have to play him.
   2746. ursus arctos Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:17 AM (#4730391)
Loyalty to the players who got him there has always been Del Bosque's trademark, and has contributed both to his success (see his failure to panic after the opening loss to the Swiss in 2010) and his failure (this tournament). It's just not realistic to expect a manager with that much experience and that much of a consistent record to change his spots almost literally overnight.

It is quite interesting that Spain and King Juan Carlos effectively abdicated on the same day. Deep down, I wouldn't be surprised if Del Bosque is also a bit relieved to be done with the job.

BTW, just because Casillas is the usual captain doesn't mean that he is guaranteed in a place in the squad. Captains are often substituted and sometimes dropped entirely. It isn't a permanent position.
   2747. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:45 AM (#4730421)
According to this article De Gea was hurt, and Reina wasn't deemed an upgrade over Casillas so Del Bosque stuck with him.
   2748. simon bedford Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:52 AM (#4730428)
after 2 miserable games spain has the worst differntial going, and had hopeless defense and poor goalkeeping, they wont be "fine" anytime soon, its hard to see them as anything more than a lower 20 tiered team .
   2749. Randy Jones Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:55 AM (#4730431)
after 2 miserable games spain has the worst differntial going, and had hopeless defense and poor goalkeeping, they wont be "fine" anytime soon, its hard to see them as anything more than a lower 20 tiered team .

Do we really need to mention SSS on this site?
   2750. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 11:57 AM (#4730435)
after 2 miserable games spain has the worst differntial going, and had hopeless defense and poor goalkeeping, they wont be "fine" anytime soon, its hard to see them as anything more than a lower 20 tiered team .

Man, what is it with you and Spain?
   2751. Slivers of Maranville descends into chaos (SdeB) Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:06 PM (#4730455)
There's not much separating the very best teams in the world so any slippage becomes exaggerated.


This doesn't quite mesh with the pre-tournament consensus that there were only four teams with any realistic chance to win the Cup.
   2752. simon bedford Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:11 PM (#4730465)
did you not watch the games? they were hopelessly outclassed in both contests against teams that were not considered world beaters going in, holland looked good but not awesome against the socceroos who put up a better fight than the spanish did, i dont know why some people cling to a dynatsy like this after its so clearly over.
   2753. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:12 PM (#4730474)
the two sports shows here in toronto spent a little time analyzing why the spanish played so awful, both agreed the attacking was awful, no pace no speed no pressure, no confidence in their attack and zilch in finishing, both agreed that spanish under 21s success meant the future wasnt that bleak , both agreed spain is no longer a major force in soccer and that the team couldnt be ranked in the top 10 , again not sure what chilean game you were watching the first 20 minutes of the second half contained two decent scoring chances both by chile the spanish defense remained poor the entire game and they lost to a team that simply isnt a dominating side, this spanish team just played very poorly in its first two matches.

I understand that lots of people share your error in mistaking scoreline for quality. And 65 percent of HOF voters thought Jack Morris deserved induction. People are wrong all the time.

But I will say I'm particularly shocked that sports talk radio was ill-informed!

In more relevant conversations, I loved both anthems. I'm really uncomfortable with nationalism in most contexts, but it's beautiful to see people expressing their pride through the joy of song.
   2754. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:17 PM (#4730478)
they were hopelessly outclassed


This is a massive exaggeration. They outplayed the Netherlands in the first half of the first game, and it's not clear on the whole that Chile outplayed them. I think if they replayed those two game 100 times, Spain would win more than half of them. There is no doubt that they disappointed, but that is because we had extremely high expectations for them. not because they were "hopelessly outclassed".
   2755. I am going to be Frank Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:20 PM (#4730480)
Two horrible games. The players that were tired and complacent. They were very close to being up 2-0 on the Netherlands. They'll be one of the favorites at the next European Championship. A couple guys (Xavi, Alonso, Villa and maybe Casillas) will retire internationally, but there is plenty of talented youth coming in - they've won the last two European U-21 championships.
   2756. Kurt Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:22 PM (#4730481)
Meanwhile, there's a tremendously entertaining game going on right now.
   2757. DA Baracus Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:25 PM (#4730486)
after 2 miserable games spain has the worst differntial going, and had hopeless defense and poor goalkeeping, they wont be "fine" anytime soon, its hard to see them as anything more than a lower 20 tiered team .


The sky is falling.
   2758. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4730489)
Colombia trying to play a trick corner, and the ref having none of it. Was that planned by Colombia as a team, or did the player just try to dribble from the corner (as if the previous player standing there had played it slightly, making it live)? Either way, it's weak ####.
   2759. The Marksist Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:26 PM (#4730490)
Yeah, this Columbia/Ivory Coast game is frenetic.
   2760. bunyon Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:32 PM (#4730494)
I'm watching on univision's streaming site and now the ads popping through my ad blocker are all in spanish. Awesome!
   2761. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:33 PM (#4730496)
Great move from Colombia, pretty bad miss. I think it was a LITTLE bit more difficult than it initially seemed, but they may really regret not getting that one.
   2762. Kurt Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4730499)
2761 - he looked offsides to me on that one; I was surprised they didn't call it.
   2763. bunyon Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4730500)
What was the deal with the trick corner? I had no idea what the guy was thinking.
   2764. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:36 PM (#4730505)
did you not watch the games? they were hopelessly outclassed in both contests against teams that were not considered world beaters going in, holland looked good but not awesome against the socceroos who put up a better fight than the spanish did, i dont know why some people cling to a dynatsy like this after its so clearly over.


While you're rummaging around your brain for a little bit of perspective, you might try to locate the period.
   2765. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:39 PM (#4730506)
While I was not watching carefully, I think one Colombian player was originally at the corner ready to take the kick, and placed the ball, maybe tapping it with his foot. When the to-be corner taker traded places with another Colombian player, the second player acted like the ball was live, as if the previous player had taken the corner. I believe the rule is that the ball has to go a full rotation before being touched a second time from a corner kick (not sure about that), which is something like 2 feet. Presumably it did not do that, so could not have been live. Also, both the linesman and the ref were not paying attention as if the ball was live, and the ref was busy sorting out players in the 6-yd box, so was quite annoyed at the play by the second Colombian kicker.
   2766. Kurt Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:41 PM (#4730509)
Almost a horrible giveaway there.
   2767. bunyon Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:42 PM (#4730510)
Ah. I thought he just started dribbling without any philosophy behind it and thought I either didn't know the rules or the guy didn't. I was right!
   2768. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:46 PM (#4730514)
Out of respect for Collina and his trademark, bald referees should be forced to either not shave their skull or to wear a wig.
   2769. Dale Sams Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:49 PM (#4730517)
Colombia trying to play a trick corner


In a game once on a free kick, a player and I would pretend to argue who was going to take the kick while we both stood over the ball. I would then kick it between his legs and a guy away from the play would shoot. The ball bounced off the wall and the shooter scored from the rebound.

Obviously he's not supposed to bounce the ball off the wall, and then score...but...there ya go...
   2770. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 12:54 PM (#4730524)
This doesn't quite mesh with the pre-tournament consensus that there were only four teams with any realistic chance to win the Cup.

Those are the teams I'm talking about, mostly.
   2771. Howling John Shade Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:01 PM (#4730534)
after 2 miserable games spain has the worst differntial going, and had hopeless defense and poor goalkeeping, they wont be "fine" anytime soon, its hard to see them as anything more than a lower 20 tiered team .
Just to join the general chorus, a large percentage of the Spanish players were playing in the Champions League final just a month ago. I don't think they suddenly became crap. They just played badly for two games and got a really bad goalkeeping performance (from a goalie who isn't Spain's best). They'll be fine.
   2772. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:05 PM (#4730542)
The Daily Mail predicted England's World Cup 2014 squad in 2007.

Oops.

The funny thing is that if you just picked their starting 11 from the 2006 tournament you'd at least have gotten two right.
   2773. zack Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:10 PM (#4730550)
They just played badly for two games and got a really bad goalkeeping performance (from a goalie who isn't Spain's best). They'll be fine.

There's no doubt that a number of their players (Casillas and Xabi especially), but there's also undoubtedly a big tactical element in there. Both opponents played high pressing games to keep Spain from having the ball the entire match, and Spain just didn't have the players to punish a team that does that. They are designed to have so much of the ball that they can grind out wins without ever being threatened.

I would bet they are favorites for Euro 2016.
   2774. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:14 PM (#4730558)
A draw here doesn't help either team that much. Even with a loss today either team would probably advance with a draw in their final game. A draw also might end up leaving group winner to goal differential.
   2775. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4730561)
Didier Zokora...the Tottenham fans' reminder not to get too excited about a player's World Cup performance.
   2776. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:18 PM (#4730562)
Bony seemed to make that much harder than it needed to be.
   2777. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:18 PM (#4730563)
I would bet they are favorites for Euro 2016.

A Xavi transplant is a risky operation, there is a risk that the patient turns into a mess of talent that doesn't mesh.
   2778. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4730564)
There's no doubt that a number of their players (Casillas and Xabi especially), but there's also undoubtedly a big tactical element in there. Both opponents played high pressing games to keep Spain from having the ball the entire match, and Spain just didn't have the players to punish a team that does that. They are designed to have so much of the ball that they can grind out wins without ever being threatened.

Michael Cox had some good commentary about this today.

(Warning: autoplaying video on that page, because ESPN hates happiness)
   2779. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4730566)
Who takes the Spain job, assuming Del Bosque steps down?
   2780. Infinite Joost (Voxter) Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:21 PM (#4730567)
This doesn't quite mesh with the pre-tournament consensus that there were only four teams with any realistic chance to win the Cup.


Was this really a "consensus"? I can remember seeing decent arguments for France, Uruguay and Colombia, and probably could have mounted one for the Netherlands.
   2781. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:23 PM (#4730571)
Was this really a "consensus"?
From a betting standpoint, yes.
   2782. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:24 PM (#4730572)
Who takes the Spain job, assuming Del Bosque steps down?

Svennis wants to announce that he would be prepared to take it into consideration.
   2783. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:25 PM (#4730574)
This has been a really fun game. It was kind of crazy it took that long to actually get a goal. Six or seven that could have gone in already.
   2784. Swedish Chef Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:25 PM (#4730575)
From a betting standpoint, yes.

The rest of the field had decent odds in aggregate.
   2785. Kurt Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4730578)
I like both of these teams; I hope they both get through.
   2786. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:27 PM (#4730579)
Who takes the Spain job, assuming Del Bosque steps down?


What's the deal with Pep at Bayern? I recall some discussion when they went out of the CL that they might move on from him. If that happens he certainly seems like a natural. Just staying with big names might they make a run at Simeone?

And of course Sven would listen.

EDIT: Coke to the Chef dammit.
   2787. The Marksist Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:29 PM (#4730582)
Phantom foul in a dangerous position. Harmless, though.
   2788. cmd600 Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:30 PM (#4730584)
What do people expect the lineup to be with Altidore ruled out? I'd bring Zusi in and go with Dempsey alone up top. I don't see how they retain possession in the middle of the field playing the same way they did against Ghana.
   2789. The Marksist Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:31 PM (#4730586)
Oof. Bad giveaway leads directly to a goal.
   2790. AuntBea Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:32 PM (#4730588)
The rest of the field had decent odds in aggregate.


True. Right now, the 3 remaining favorites still have much better odds than the rest. Brazil at 23%, Germany at 22%, Argentina at 20%. The next best is the Netherlands at 9% and France at 7%. If I remember correctly, aside from the top 4 when the tournament started Belgium had the 5th best odds at about 4%.
   2791. Kurt Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:34 PM (#4730591)
What a goal.
   2792. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4730593)
They're putting on a show today.
   2793. Baldrick Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4730594)
Okay, here are the goals then. How in the heck did he get through all those guys?
   2794. Howling John Shade Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4730595)
This game has sure gotten fun.
   2795. zack Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4730596)
Always nice to see someone stay up in the box and be rewarded.
   2796. The Marksist Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:35 PM (#4730597)
This is a great match. Hope everyone who can be is watching this.
   2797. Dale Sams Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:39 PM (#4730605)
I've been reading on the history of the US Open Cup. I was unaware that it had existed so long cause I sure didn't remember NASL teams playing. Now I see that the NASL refused to participate...which IMO didn't exactly help the brand.
   2798. Jose Is The Most Absurd Thing on the Site Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:40 PM (#4730607)
What do people expect the lineup to be with Altidore ruled out? I'd bring Zusi in and go with Dempsey alone up top. I don't see how they retain possession in the middle of the field playing the same way they did against Ghana.


I wouldn't be shocked by a more "true" 4-4-2 with Johansson and Dempsey up top in hopes that they can help retain a little possession. I think Klinsmann is keen on the idea of Zusi as a substitute. I wouldn't be shocked if Davis or Mix got involved in place of Bedoya to just try and get some fresh legs out there given the forecast. Seems to me that trying to come back with the same 11 in those conditions might be a recipe for disaster.
   2799. Shooty Is Disappointed With His Midstream Urine Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:46 PM (#4730616)
Colombia is not exactly bunkering down here. They need to be smart and see the game out now.
   2800. cmd600 Posted: June 19, 2014 at 01:47 PM (#4730617)
I wouldn't be shocked if Davis or Mix got involved in place of Bedoya to just try and get some fresh legs out there given the forecast.


This makes a lot of sense to me. I was originally in the camp of bringing back the same 11 (with Zusi for Altidore) and going to the bench earlier in the game to get the fresh legs, but as we saw in the first half against Ghana that you probably shouldn't count on being able to make your ideal pre-planned substitutions.
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