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Tuesday, July 01, 2014

OTP - July 2014: Republicans Lose To Democrats For Sixth Straight Year In Congressional Baseball Game

As Time magazine recently reported, Republicans, frustrated by their 22-0 loss in last year’s game, sought a new coach to shake things up on the field this year. Some members even appealed to House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) to fire the coach, Rep. Joe Barton (R-Texas). But Boehner said he wasn’t powerful enough to control the baseball diamond, and Barton refused to walk away after spending 28 years with the game. Instead, he brought on Rep. Roger Williams (R-Texas), a former professional baseball player and coach at Texas Christian University, to coach while he stayed on as the team’s manager.

In the face of Wednesday’s loss, according to The Washington Post, Republicans are once again asking Boehner to remove Barton from the game. But with multiple pitchers giving up walk after walk, it seems that what the Republicans really need is a pitcher who can better match Rep. Cedric Richmond (D-La.), who previously pitched on Morehouse College’s varsity baseball team.

Bitter Mouse Posted: July 01, 2014 at 07:53 AM | 4025 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: politics, winning is fun

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   1601. Ron J2 Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:07 PM (#4748768)
EDIT: Rickey! already linked to the Upshot article in question.
   1602. villageidiom Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4748772)
Bare hardwood is too cold and noisy.
Socks are like personal carpets that follow you wherever you walk. They are even easier to clean than area rugs.
   1603. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:09 PM (#4748773)
538 currently has the "likely" outcomes being a photo-finish between R +2 or 50/50, with R +2 leading by a nose.


The Upshot has the Repubs with a 54% chance of winning the Senate

Wang has the Dems at 55%

Monkey cage has it 52 seats for the GOP


   1604. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:16 PM (#4748782)
playing Carnac the Magnificent I predict that YC will predict...
GOP 55, Dems 45


   1605. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:19 PM (#4748784)
Socks are like personal carpets that follow you wherever you walk. They are even easier to clean than area rugs.

You really don't want to have your feet resting on bare hardwood or tile during the winter, especially when seated and inactive. It makes you much colder; we lose a ton of heat through our feet. You'll be much more comfortable, at a considerable savings in heating expense, if you throw down a few rugs.

Also, the people downstairs won't hear you clomping around as much.

   1606. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:20 PM (#4748788)
and Mr. Unskewed (Dean Chambers) seems to be out of the polling/prediction business, instead he's babbling about how the GOP has been steadily drifting left the last decade or so due to Dem infiltration...
   1607. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:24 PM (#4748797)
and Mr. Unskewed is also babbling about how Rick Perry is right about gays...

No extreme leftist will tell me, or my former colleague, that one can't be a former homosexual and recover from it, if that is what one chooses. The point here is personal choice, because homosexuality itself is as much a personal choice as bringing that drink to the lips and consuming it is for the alcoholic. No degree of genetic disposition to alcoholism, if there is one, is going to make one an alcoholic if one never chooses to the bring the drink to ones mouth.

Let's look at a comparison of homosexuality and alcoholism. Both involve addictions. Contrary to popular belief created by deliberate homosexual propaganda, most gay men are also addicted to sex and must have sex hundreds of times per month with multiple partners. That is why AIDS spread rapdily through the homosexual male community while it never realy made it to heterosexuals outside of a small percent of intravenous drug users. Most gay men are sex addicts, just like alcoholics are addicted to excessive consumption of intoxicating beverages. Both lifestyles are extremely unhealthy and lead to premature death. Both lifestyles are risky because of behavior (sex with hundreds of partners, consumption of hundreds of alcoholic beverages) that the individual can abstain from partaking in. And both of these unhealthy lifestyles can be overcome, by individual choice, by those who wish to recover and remain in recovery from their sexual or booze addiction. The comparison of the two was entirely spot-on correct. Rick Perry is right.


   1608. Greg K Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:28 PM (#4748799)
Socks are like personal carpets that follow you wherever you walk. They are even easier to clean than area rugs.

You sound like that guy on Silicon Valley who invented the machine that constantly heats the air around your skin with microwaves rather than inefficiently heating a whole house.

You could market it as "the body sock"
   1609. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:29 PM (#4748802)
We can probably assume Dean Chambers is a deeply, deeply repressed gay man.
   1610. CrosbyBird Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:41 PM (#4748823)
You really don't want to have your feet resting on bare hardwood or tile during the winter, especially when seated and inactive.

I've never had this problem in my current apartment, which is all hardwood except the kitchen and bathroom. Then again, I'm on the 19th floor in a building filled with old folks who crank that heat, so I go through most of the winter without needing any of my own.
   1611. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:49 PM (#4748834)
. . . an additional 10 percent were conducted by Rasmussen, an ostensibly nonpartisan firm that leans conservative and has a poor record.

Rasmussen has consistently had Obama's Job Approval Rating ~5-7% higher than every other pollster for at least the last 10 months. Folks might want to give some thought to what Obama's actual rating is if Rasmussen is not to be trusted.
   1612. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:50 PM (#4748837)
We can probably assume Dean Chambers is a deeply, deeply repressed gay man.

Or that he's the unedited representative of the Republican base's soul.
   1613. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:51 PM (#4748839)
Or that he's the unedited representative of the Republican base's soul.


Not sure that's necessarily and either/or question, brah.
   1614. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:52 PM (#4748840)
. . . an additional 10 percent were conducted by Rasmussen, an ostensibly nonpartisan firm that leans conservative and has a poor record.


Rasmussen has consistently had Obama's Job Approval Rating ~5-7% higher than every other pollster for at least the last 10 months. Folks might want to give some thought to what Obama's actual rating is if Rasmussen is not to be trusted.

I'm not sure exactly what polls can be trusted when so many people simply blow off all attempts at being questioned, but you're right that Rasmussen's reputation for right wing leaning poll results is quite a bit out of date.
   1615. formerly dp Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:53 PM (#4748841)
most gay men are also addicted to sex and must have sex hundreds of times per month with multiple partners.
Being a gay man sounds like a full-time gig. Hundreds of times per month x multiple partners = a lot of #######!
   1616. Lassus Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:54 PM (#4748845)
Both lifestyles are risky because of behavior (sex with hundreds of partners, consumption of hundreds of alcoholic beverages) that the individual can abstain from partaking in.

I personally know gay men and women who would want Mr. Chambers to introduce them around, because they are running a few hundred short in this department.
   1617. villageidiom Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:55 PM (#4748848)
You really don't want to have your feet resting on bare hardwood or tile during the winter, especially when seated and inactive. It makes you much colder; we lose a ton of heat through our feet.
Unless your floors are made of metal, you will lose more heat to the air above your feet than to the surface below them, if you're seated and inactive. Hence, socks.
Also, the people downstairs won't hear you clomping around as much.
If there were people downstairs it would be because someone locked them in my basement. I don't think "keeping the noise down" would be high on their list of demands. YMMV.
   1618. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:55 PM (#4748849)
Or that he's the unedited representative of the Republican base's soul.

Not sure that's necessarily and either/or question, brah.


Yeah, in some cases that's true, but I don't think that repressed and closeted gays are quite yet the majority of the Perry and Cruz crowd.
   1619. JE (Jason) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 01:55 PM (#4748850)
Oh crap, Jason edited it out.

LOL.

Upon reflection, Lassus, I didn't think a donation made to the Clinton Foundation 12 years ago is that relevant. I'm more interested in who are the more recent donations to the Foundation, as well as the Clinton Global Initiative (e.g., Qatar?). Having said that, it would be wise for the Foundation to donate the Sultan's $ to a group or groups dedicated to securing women's rights in Muslim-majority countries.
   1620. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:16 PM (#4748866)
I'm not sure exactly what polls can be trusted when so many people simply blow off all attempts at being questioned, but you're right that Rasmussen's reputation for right wing leaning poll results is quite a bit out of date.

It's also worth noting that the pollsters aren't very transparent about their response rate. A couple of years ago, I saw a claim that the industry-wide response rate was down to around 10%, compared to more than 50% a few decades ago. Even if some aspects of polling methodology are more scientific today, such a low response rate has to be a problem.

I've mentioned this before, but I get at least a dozen calls from purported pollsters every election season. I suspect most are campaign operatives seeking to pin down my (or other family members) political allegiances (Virginia doesn't register voters by party) and then bombard me with even more fundraising and electioneering efforts. I participated in one Rasmussen Poll out of curiosity, but gave the others a pass. Although many of the pollsters claimed to be working for obscure companies, several said they were with Gallup, although they might be fibbing. Keep in mind that given my non-participation, Obama's Job Approval Rating is actually a tad higher than it ought to be.
   1621. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:28 PM (#4748876)
Isn't it a little early for our final Senate picks?

Right now, I'd guess Republicans 51, Democrats 49, with Republicans 49 slightly more likely than Republicans 50. I think if Republicans go into the LA runoff with 50, it more effectively nationalizes the race, with Landrieu losing and the Republicans getting to 51. While 50 is better for Republicans than 49, I think that if the Republicans are playing for a tie that Biden breaks rather than actual control, it provides just enough of a sap to give Landrieu a better chance in the runoff.

I think Republicans end up very disappointed with Michigan and New Hampshire but hold onto Kentucky and Georgia by surprising margins on the other end of the coin. I think they take AK, AR, NC, with whether they can get CO or IA being the nail-biters to get them to 50.
   1622. CrosbyBird Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:37 PM (#4748885)
Unless your floors are made of metal, you will lose more heat to the air above your feet than to the surface below them, if you're seated and inactive. Hence, socks.

If I'm wearing socks in my apartment, it means I'm about to leave or that I have company.
   1623. zonk Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:41 PM (#4748893)
I'm looking forward to seeing Cerebral Ballzy at Riot Fest....
   1624. Greg K Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:44 PM (#4748895)
If I'm wearing socks in my apartment, it means I'm about to leave or that I have company.

Yeah for me socks are one of those burdensome constraints civilization demands.* And I grudgingly accept them in exchange for the benefits society gives me. Though in the aforementioned carpet apartment I did go without any heating for two years, so I had to wear them. That was no fun.

*One of the great things about the cottage...no need to wear socks for a whole weekend. Even outside the forest floor provides adequate cushioning for the bottom of the foot. I do try to maintain as sock-free an existence as I can in the city. But walking through the snow to take the garbage out to the curb in bare feet isn't super fun. I mean, it's still better than having to put a sock or shoe on, but it's not a picnic.
   1625. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:45 PM (#4748899)
I'm looking forward to seeing Cerebral Ballzy at Riot Fest....


New Cerebral Ballzy - very good
New Fvkced Up - very good, but not as good as "David Comes To Life"
New Mastadon - quite possibly their best release to date. (must have for fans of original era Black Sabbath type metal)
New Corrosion of Conformity - in process; not yet rated
New Old 97's - best thing they've released in decades
New Say Hi - I just love Say Hi, so it's pointless to ask really

New Bob Mould - super
New Weatherbox - fantastic
   1626. The Good Face Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:50 PM (#4748906)
Socks are like personal carpets that follow you wherever you walk. They are even easier to clean than area rugs.


Socks aren't a great thing to wear on wood floors because you have a tendency to slide your feet along, which essentially means you're constantly subjecting your floor to swipes of extremely high grit sandpaper. Better off with bare feet or shoes/slippers. Something that won't make you slide your fleet along the wood when you walk.
   1627. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:51 PM (#4748907)
I predict that YC will predict... GOP 55, Dems 45

I'm on record from back in February, as saying the GOP will likely gain between 6-10 Senate seats. If I absolutely had to pick a single number today, 8 might be the best guess. Could think differently in October. While current polls (less than 130 days to Election Day) have considerable value, later polls tend to move toward the eventual outcome and the predictive models.
   1628. zonk Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:54 PM (#4748909)
I think Republicans end up very disappointed with Michigan and New Hampshire but hold onto Kentucky and Georgia by surprising margins on the other end of the coin. I think they take AK, AR, NC, with whether they can get CO or IA being the nail-biters to get them to 50.


I'm feeling a ton better about NC, AR, and AK than I was 3-6 months ago...

Cotton seems to be falling awfully flat in Arkansas - I think there was a USNWR article last week that had a couple GOP operatives complaining about his inability to do 'retail politics' (something Pryor excels at and something that very much matters in Arkansas: See Clinton and Huckabee, and see the aptly named Blanche Lincoln never showing a pulse when she went down).

Hagan's hanging a lot tougher than I imagined in NC - I figured she'd be down 10 by this point, but she's actually surging and now consistently leading in most polls.

Begich I always thought would hang on -- but there's a decent amount of speculation that he and Claire McKaskill might have just pulled a nifty bit of political kabuki theater earlier in the week... Basically, a supposed "feud" went public regarding the Alaska Native Corporation -- it's basically one of those special funding circumstances that Alaska has, created more than 40 years ago - and everyone's tried to kill since. Dueling press conferences, dueling press releases, etc -- with Claire bashing Mark for blocking defunding/cutting funds. If I were a Democrat running in a very poor (at least in terms of federal money in vs federal money out) red state -- and running against a guy who almost certainly is towing the TP line about "cut everything!!!!" -- I don't think I could have scripted it any better.

I think it's fair to say that Democratic hopes to hang onto the Senate are in a ton better shape than they were in Q1...
   1629. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:56 PM (#4748911)
Socks aren't a great thing to wear on wood floors because you have a tendency to slide your feet along, which essentially means you're constantly subjecting your floor to swipes of extremely high grit sandpaper. Better off with bare feet or shoes/slippers.


I suggest living in a climate that doesn't have to worry about #### like "my feetsies are cold."
   1630. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 02:58 PM (#4748912)
New Cerebral Ballzy - very good
New Fvkced Up - very good, but not as good as "David Comes To Life"
New Mastadon - quite possibly their best release to date. (must have for fans of original era Black Sabbath type metal)
New Corrosion of Conformity - in process; not yet rated
New Old 97's - best thing they've released in decades
New Say Hi - I just love Say Hi, so it's pointless to ask really

New Bob Mould - super
New Weatherbox - fantastic


Oh! New Manchester Orchestra - ####### FANTASTIC!
   1631. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:02 PM (#4748917)
I almost never wear socks unless it's the dead of winter.

For me, it's *pants* that are if I'm about to go out or having company.

Would probably be in better shape if I didn't work from home, but getting to wear pajamas a large percentage of the time is a nice perk.

   1632. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:02 PM (#4748919)
I think it's fair to say that Democratic hopes to hang onto the Senate are in a ton better shape than they were in Q1...


I still think we're looking at 50/50, with Joe's #######' Camaro holding the swing vote. I also withhold judgement on the GA race until Perdue and Kingston are finished beating each other up. It's a long shot, but I think Nunn has a shot against Kingston. I think less of one against Perdue.
   1633. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:06 PM (#4748924)
BREAKING NEWS - OBAMA FALLS BELOW 41% IN RCP PRESIDENTIAL JOB APPROVAL POLL RATING. Obama was around 45% at the 2010 mid-term.
   1634. Lassus Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:07 PM (#4748925)
Socks aren't a great thing to wear on wood floors because you have a tendency to slide your feet along, which essentially means you're constantly subjecting your floor to swipes of extremely high grit sandpaper

Maybe you should wash your socks a little more often.
   1635. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:08 PM (#4748931)
Isn't it a little early for our final Senate picks?


yes, yes it is.
   1636. formerly dp Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:08 PM (#4748932)
New Cerebral Ballzy - very good
New Fvkced Up - very good, but not as good as "David Comes To Life"
New Mastadon - quite possibly their best release to date. (must have for fans of original era Black Sabbath type metal)
New Corrosion of Conformity - in process; not yet rated
New Old 97's - best thing they've released in decades
New Say Hi - I just love Say Hi, so it's pointless to ask really
New Swans - ???
   1637. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:11 PM (#4748934)
I still think we're looking at 50/50


How about this...

GOP 51, DEMs 49

then in a month or two Collins goes Jeffords...

Not a serious prediction, just a guess at scenario that would really drive the GOPers nuts
   1638. The Good Face Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:14 PM (#4748936)
Maybe you should wash your socks a little more often.


What am I, some kind of billionaire?
   1639. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:14 PM (#4748937)
I'm feeling a ton better about NC, AR, and AK than I was 3-6 months ago...

Cotton seems to be falling awfully flat in Arkansas - I think there was a USNWR article last week that had a couple GOP operatives complaining about his inability to do 'retail politics' (something Pryor excels at and something that very much matters in Arkansas:


And yet Cotton is doing better in the polls in Q2 than Q1...
   1640. Greg K Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:15 PM (#4748939)
Would probably be in better shape if I didn't work from home, but getting to wear pajamas a large percentage of the time is a nice perk.

I know that game. At least today I'm getting exercise by walking upstairs to make a cup of tea every 10 minutes.
   1641. Rickey! trades in sheep and threats Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:16 PM (#4748940)
New Swans - ???


Dinna got it.
   1642. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:19 PM (#4748941)
then in a month or two Collins goes Jeffords...

Not a serious prediction, just a guess at scenario that would really drive the GOPers nuts


I actually think King might be the most flip-able if he sees a benefit. He wouldn't actually become a Republican, but as an independent who has dropped hints there and there, seems the most likely to me (if anyone).
   1643. JE (Jason) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:20 PM (#4748943)
And yet Cotton is doing better in the polls in Q2 than Q1...

Obvious conclusion: Cotton was having difficulty adjusting to wood floors in Q1.
   1644. DCA Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:21 PM (#4748944)

I actually think King might be the most flip-able if he sees a benefit.

Hasn't he flat-out said that he'll caucus with the Republicans if they win the majority? That's why R-51 D-49 is very unlikely, if the Republicans get 51, they'll also get King.
   1645. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:23 PM (#4748949)
I actually think King might be the most flip-able if he sees a benefit.


Oh he's absolutely "flipping" if the GOP reaches 51.

The question is what does he do if it reaches only 50?
He doesn't strike me as the type of man to pass on that level of leverage, does he then have Reid and McConnell fight over him?
   1646. DCA Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:27 PM (#4748955)
I wouldn't be surprised to see King entertain offers on both sides if the Senate is 50/50. But I think the Dems have a strong advantage, since they will almost certainly take the majority back in 2016 (favorable map) and better not to burn bridges.
   1647. zonk Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:28 PM (#4748956)
Oh! New Manchester Orchestra - ####### FANTASTIC!


I'm sure this will earn me a neck stabbing, but I find Manchester Orchestra to be one of those bands that puts out stuff I take a strong initial liking to, but wears thin quickly.

Ordinarily, the opposite is true -- it probably took a good dozen listens before I fell in love with Eleanor Friedberger's new one last summer...
   1648. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:30 PM (#4748959)
That's why R-51 D-49 is very unlikely, if the Republicans get 51, they'll also get King.

Oh, I'm just talking about election time. I'm not counting possible flips!
   1649. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:39 PM (#4748977)
I wouldn't be surprised to see King entertain offers on both sides if the Senate is 50/50. But I think the Dems have a strong advantage, since they will almost certainly take the majority back in 2016 (favorable map) and better not to burn bridges.

In Maine though, I think that "independent" schtick would go down better. I don't think it would burn bridges the way Lieberman did.
   1650. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:40 PM (#4748980)
I actually think King might be the most flip-able if he sees a benefit.

I don't think the GOP will take King unless he commits to staying with the GOP Caucus for the remainder of his term. What's the point of giving him a good committee assignment or recognizing his seniority if he would flip back to the Dems after 2016? Maybe if the Senate is at 50-50 before he switches, but certainly not to pad the majority by 1 seat with a Senator who's likely to vote differently from most GOP Senators and could bolt the party rather quickly.

EDIT:
. . . then in a month or two Collins goes Jeffords...

I have no concerns about Susan Collins leaving the GOP. Not happening, IMHO.
   1651. villageidiom Posted: July 11, 2014 at 03:42 PM (#4748981)
If I'm wearing socks in my apartment, it means I'm about to leave or that I have company.
Or that your feet are warm.
Maybe you should wash your socks a little more often.
Seconded.
I suggest living in a climate that doesn't have to worry about #### like "my feetsies are cold."
Or like "when will the road unfreeze I need to get home in fewer than 15 hours."
   1652. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 04:17 PM (#4749004)
I don't think the GOP will take King unless he commits to staying with the GOP Caucus for the remainder of his term.


When has either party ever told a sitting pol who said he was switching, "thanks, but no thanks"
   1653. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 04:35 PM (#4749008)
When has either party ever told a sitting pol who said he was switching, "thanks, but no thanks"

When has a sitting Senator said a move across the aisle was just until the next election? Not seeing it happen, at least not on terms favorable to King. Maybe they take him if it skews the committee ratios to give the GOP 1 more Senator on all the sought-after committees, but I don't think they'd give King even a sub-committee chairmanship if he won't rule out flipping back to the Dems in 2016. Not sure what kind of reception King would get from the Dems either if they retake the Senate and King wants to pad their majority after 2016. Thus, I'm skeptical King will actually try an "Always in the Majority" strategy, although he probably enjoys the attention such speculation brings to a relatively junior member.
   1654. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 04:40 PM (#4749012)
I suggest living in a climate that doesn't have to worry about #### like "my feetsies are cold."

And those climates tend the have horrific summers. I'd rather be chilled than swelter.

Walking 15 blocks to work on a 20 degree winter day is a breeze as long as you have an appropriate coat, hat and scarf. Doing that same walk when it's 95 is torture.
   1655. Johnny Sycophant-Laden Fora Posted: July 11, 2014 at 05:00 PM (#4749024)
Walking 15 blocks to work on a 20 degree winter day is a breeze as long as you have an appropriate coat, hat and scarf. Doing that same walk when it's 95 is torture.


agree
   1656. JE (Jason) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 05:40 PM (#4749041)
Walking 15 blocks to work on a 20 degree winter day is a breeze as long as you have an appropriate coat, hat and scarf. Doing that same walk when it's 95 is torture.

I agree it's a torturous commute when it's 95, Snapper, particularly if you are wearing a coat, hat, and scarf.
   1657. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 08:14 PM (#4749126)
More polling news. The Boston Globe poll has the likely Democratic gubernatorial nominee leading the likely Republican nominee by a slim 40% - 35%. Note the narrow 5% margin and the fact the Democrat is well under 50%. If Democrats have to worry about Massachusetts, they will be in big trouble.
   1658. Lassus Posted: July 11, 2014 at 10:27 PM (#4749201)
If Democrats have to worry about Massachusetts, they will be in big trouble.

Massachusetts, which had four Republican governors in a row from 1991 to 2006? Losing it wouldn't be what I would prefer, but it would not be that unusual.
   1659. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 11, 2014 at 10:44 PM (#4749211)
If Democrats have to worry about Massachusetts, they will be in big trouble.

Massachusetts, which had four Republican governors in a row from 1991 to 2006? Losing it wouldn't be what I would prefer, but it would not be that unusual.

In Massachusetts, Democrats have a better than 3 to 1 registration advantage, all 9 members of the U. S. House of Representatives, both U. S. Senators, the Governorship, and majorities of 131-29 in the State House & 36-4 in the State Senate. What is unusual is that they have ever managed to kick away all those advantages.
   1660. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 11, 2014 at 10:55 PM (#4749219)
If Democrats have to worry about Massachusetts, they will be in big trouble.

And if Mitch McConnell is sweating it in Kentucky?

Of course neither McConnell nor Coakley are likely to lose, but we all have our fantasies.
   1661. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:33 PM (#4749245)
NJ elects some R Govs and has one 2-termer now, but Ds win every single Senate race dating back decades. States can be funny that way...

   1662. JE (Jason) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:33 PM (#4749246)
AP: James' return to Cleveland could complicate GOP
If James leads his team into post-season play then, the GOP could find its preferred June 28 start date for the convention impossible because of the site conflict. Convention planners typically take weeks to customize the space with lights, seats and the traditional balloon drop from the rafters — impossible tasks if the Cavaliers go into post-season play.

That leaves Republicans looking at their backup date of July 18, still earlier than parties typically nominate their presidential hopeful in recent years, but later than RNC chief Reince Priebus preferred.

"All options remain on the table as we're still very early on in the negotiation process," RNC spokeswoman Kirsten Kukowski said. "We're excited about Cleveland, and LeBron's return is further evidence that it's a city on the rise."

Priebus insisted his party's convention be scheduled for early summer 2016, roughly two months sooner than has become the norm. That would give the GOP's next presidential nominee quicker access to tens of millions of dollars in general election cash.
   1663. Howie Menckel Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:39 PM (#4749250)

This is why Cleveland can't have nice things.
   1664. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:45 PM (#4749252)
the GOP could find its preferred June 28 start date


June 28th???!!!! What's the reasoning behind that early a date? You have to go back to 1948 and 1944 to find the last two national conventions that opened in June, and those two produced Thomas E. Dewey.
   1665. JE (Jason) Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:52 PM (#4749259)
June 28th???!!!! What's the reasoning behind that early a date? You have to go back to 1948 and 1944 to find the last two national conventions that opened in June, and those two produced Thomas E. Dewey.

FTA, Andy:

Priebus insisted his party's convention be scheduled for early summer 2016, roughly two months sooner than has become the norm. That would give the GOP's next presidential nominee quicker access to tens of millions of dollars in general election cash.

"The candidate can be broke, but they're not able to raise general election money until the convention is held," Priebus said earlier this week.

   1666. OCF Posted: July 11, 2014 at 11:57 PM (#4749264)
Walking 15 blocks to work on a 20 degree winter day is a breeze as long as you have an appropriate coat, hat and scarf. Doing that same walk when it's 95 is torture.

Well, there is Southern California, reasonably close to the ocean. I did walk to work today, and back - about 2 miles each direction, in the middle of July. Temperature was somewhere between 76 and 80. Not torture.
   1667. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 12, 2014 at 12:21 AM (#4749283)
. . . and those two produced Thomas E. Dewey.

Everett Dirksen: "Twice you led us down the path of defeat; you shall not do it again."
   1668. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2014 at 12:30 AM (#4749286)
Priebus insisted his party's convention be scheduled for early summer 2016, roughly two months sooner than has become the norm. That would give the GOP's next presidential nominee quicker access to tens of millions of dollars in general election cash. "The candidate can be broke, but they're not able to raise general election money until the convention is held," Priebus said earlier this week.

And no one thought of this until now?
   1669. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2014 at 12:33 AM (#4749288)
I think Priebus's actions reflect the widely held belief that Obama's early negative ads that defined Romney were very influential in the election (they probably weren't). Rs seem to want to put up more ads early, which seems sort of like a waste, but yanno, it's not my money.
   1670. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 12, 2014 at 01:24 AM (#4749310)
I suspect Priebus correctly believes it's easier to raise general election funds, too. Not only do you have a nominee, but the nominee's donors from the primary period can donate again for the general. If an early convention works for the GOP, it might become the new normal for the party out of power.
   1671. JE (Jason) Posted: July 12, 2014 at 01:48 AM (#4749314)
And no one thought of this until now?

Priebus must have convinced himself that LeBron was staying in Miami. :)
   1672. JE (Jason) Posted: July 12, 2014 at 02:40 AM (#4749319)
Obama administration supports compromise on Assad chemical weapons plants:
The Syrian regime of President Bashar al-Assad is still holding onto at least 12 chemical weapons production facilities it was supposed to destroy by June 30, and the Obama Administration is supporting a proposal to obliterate initially only seven of them in the interests of a breakthrough deal.

The remaining five, apparently all underground facilities, must be dismantled, but the compromise would allow further negotiation over how that would take place, and how the destruction would be verified.

The U.S. position, hedged with stern warnings to the Syrians, was revealed this week in remarks by Robert Mikulak, the top American diplomat at a meeting of the executive council of the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) in The Hague.

Mikulak said the deal was only available “this week” during the executive council’s session—but neither the State Department nor the OCPW answered questions from Fox News about whether any deal had been reached.

Even so, a spokesman for OPCW said there would likely be a “lapse of some days” before the records of the council meeting and its outcome would be revealed.

A number of other questions from Fox News about the nature of the facilities, and the compromise proposal first put forward by OPCW’s Technical Secretariat, were not answered by the State Department before this article was published.

According to Mikulak, “while this proposal requires serious compromises and is not entirely in keeping with the extraordinary decision this council took in September”—a reference to sweeping demands for the total destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons capability on a defined timetable—“the United States is prepared to support that compromise solution in the interests of reaching a council decision this week, as long as Syria also accepts it. We are not, however, prepared to go further or engage in further haggling.”

He added that if Syria “rejects this compromise proposal and continues its intransigence, there must be consequences. Syria cannot be allowed to stall every attempt at resolution and continue to defy its obligations and this council by indefinitely keeping its former CW production facilities.”

For all of Mikulak’s tough talk, however the regime has done pretty well so far at both stalling and avoiding drastic consequences for its inaction—and not only involving CW production facilities.

Haggling, delay, prevarication and dissembling have been the Syrian hallmark of the drawn-out weapons disposal discussions at all stages, as Mikulak also made clear in his statement. The much heralded destruction of Syria’s declared chemical weapons, which climaxed in a final hand-off last June, was intended to formally comply with a June 30 deadline for the turnover and demolition of all of Syria’s arsenal and facilities set in the OPCW council’s “extraordinary” September decision.

Even while the chemicals—or at least those the Assad regime has official owned up to -- were handed over in time, their destruction did not meet the deadline, and the demolition is likely to continue for months more.
   1673. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2014 at 04:35 AM (#4749325)
That's a bit weak, Jason.
   1674. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 12, 2014 at 07:12 AM (#4749330)
. . . and those two produced Thomas E. Dewey.

Everett Dirksen: "Twice you led us down the path of defeat; you shall not do it again."


Minor correction: The actual words were "We followed you before, and you took us down the path to defeat!"

Of course that famous line was growled by Dirksen at the 1952 Republican convention, when he was making a last ditch effort on behalf of Robert Taft to stave off Eisenhower's impending nomination. That was actually the first memory I have of any political moment, and I'm sure the only reason I remember it was the melodramatic tone of Dirksen's gravelly voice as he responded to Dewey's speech in favor of Ike. Of course at the time I had no idea what he was talking about.

Funny how you can remember certain things for secondary reasons. The next iconic political moment that I'll never forget was Nixon's Checkers Speech a few months later. Not because of the speech itself, but solely because at its conclusion my father turned to my mother and said, "Well, we won't have to worry about Nixon anymore!" Nice try, parents!
   1675. JE (Jason) Posted: July 12, 2014 at 09:15 AM (#4749349)
That's a bit weak, Jason.

Want weak, Lassus? Our administration penalizes governments who dismantle their WMDs (Libya, Ukraine) but reward those that repeatedly use them on their own citizens (Syria).

But yeah, let's go play some golf.
   1676. GregD Posted: July 12, 2014 at 09:33 AM (#4749354)
the problem of not being able to spend gen election funds until the convention is a real one, right? it was part of what kept kerry from effectively responding to the swift boat ads. He had raised general election funds but couldn't touch them until the convention, and the conventions were really late that year.

What I'm curious about is whether an early convention can generate a real bounce. The reason to have them later has been a fear that people just won't pay any attention until later in the summer.

The other good thing about a late convention is it gives you a chance to try to change the media narrative if your bounce takes you from trailing to leading. If you spend that too early and are trailing straight through from say mid-July, then it's going to get harder and harder to get money in September and October as people start to sniff a loser.

Will be curious to see how it all comes out.
   1677. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2014 at 10:26 AM (#4749363)
Want weak, Lassus? Our administration penalizes governments who dismantle their WMDs (Libya, Ukraine) but reward those that repeatedly use them on their own citizens (Syria). But yeah, let's go play some golf.

Obliterating seven out of 12 sites, negotiating on the method of the remaining five, and two bureaucracies combining to end up with a schedule delayed is a bit of a weak argument for "supports compromise on chemical weapons plants", "rewarding Syria" and "let's play golf".
   1678. BDC Posted: July 12, 2014 at 11:36 AM (#4749391)
Ian Thorpe has come out - granted, a story we'll greet with yawns :) but interesting for his stature in sports, his youth, and even despite both, how slow and troubled his coming-out became. Not to revive the Wings debate, but it still ain't easy.
   1679. GregD Posted: July 12, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4749397)
Ian Thorpe has come out - granted, a story we'll greet with yawns :) but interesting for his stature in sports, his youth, and even despite both, how slow and troubled his coming-out became. Not to revive the Wings debate, but it still ain't easy.
Yes. The fact that someone who had his stature and fame and money in 2014 was seriously considering killing himself to avoid coming out should make all of us slow to say that it's easy for anyone.

That said, I had to ask myself several times who Ian Thorpe was before I could pull the Thorpedo out of my memory banks. All glory is short-lived, but Olympic glory most of the time is even shorter.
   1680. greenback calls it soccer Posted: July 12, 2014 at 03:36 PM (#4749477)
Is there anything in American politics (for lack of a better word) comparable to the weird fight in Ireland over Garth Brooks?
   1681. GregD Posted: July 12, 2014 at 03:52 PM (#4749483)
I haven't really followed it. Is it NIMBY-ism? You get that. People around Wrigley complaining about the impact of the games on their parking and so pressuring local pols. You see it in fights over allowing concerts at sports stadiums sometimes if the sports stadium is in a neighborhood.

I've never though heard of a congressional committee getting involved, as as happened I guess in Ireland's parliament. Here it is all handled locally.
   1682. tshipman Posted: July 12, 2014 at 06:00 PM (#4749567)
Yes. The fact that someone who had his stature and fame and money in 2014 was seriously considering killing himself to avoid coming out should make all of us slow to say that it's easy for anyone.


I'm pretty sure Ray has a better idea of how difficult it was for Thorpe than Ian himself. Just wait, he'll tell you.
   1683. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 12, 2014 at 07:41 PM (#4749596)
Well, there is Southern California, reasonably close to the ocean. I did walk to work today, and back - about 2 miles each direction, in the middle of July. Temperature was somewhere between 76 and 80. Not torture.

But then I'd have to live in California, which is a punishment worse than death.
   1684. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 12, 2014 at 08:32 PM (#4749610)
I wonder what the clowns who raised such a stink about this....will have to say about this.
   1685. Lassus Posted: July 12, 2014 at 10:27 PM (#4749632)
But then I'd have to live in California, which is a punishment worse than death.

You're insane. California is amazingly beautiful and awesome.
   1686. greenback calls it soccer Posted: July 12, 2014 at 10:42 PM (#4749640)
   1687. Bitter Mouse Posted: July 14, 2014 at 09:50 AM (#4749901)
You're insane. California is amazingly beautiful and awesome.


Yup. I miss it. Not enough to leave friends and family to go back, but a fair amount. Really people are what matter, the climate and everything else are add ons to that.

Note: Thanks for the Torpedo reference, because I was struggling with who that was. Catching up after a weekend of camping - speaking of weather it was kind of bad right up until Sunday (time to leave) which was glorious. Sigh.
   1688. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 09:55 AM (#4749907)
You're insane. California is amazingly beautiful and awesome.

Been there, don't really care to go back. Except Napa, that's nice.

Your choices for cities are either sprawling traffic nightmares, or a single beautiful city, with hideous weather (I will not accept having to wear a coat at night in July), and inhabited by bat-#### crazy people.

If you're going to live in rural areas (which California admittedly has many beautiful one), why would you pick a state with massively high taxes and a dysfunctional government?
   1689. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 09:57 AM (#4749908)
Nice tidbit in the WSJ today on the "great" June jobs report.

The +288K jobs consisted of a loss of 523K full-time jobs, and a gain of 800K part-time jobs.
   1690. DJS and the Infinite Sadness Posted: July 14, 2014 at 11:57 AM (#4750001)
Anyone else getting a lot of errors connecting to BBTF since the start of the weekend or so?
   1691. Jolly Old St. Nick Is A Jolly Old St. Crip Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:03 PM (#4750009)
Anyone else getting a lot of errors connecting to BBTF since the start of the weekend or so?

The entire site pretty much tanked from sometime yesterday morning until late yesterday evening, but it's working fairly normally now.
   1692. snapper (history's 42nd greatest monster) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:07 PM (#4750014)
Anyone else getting a lot of errors connecting to BBTF since the start of the weekend or so?

Couldn't access at all yesterday. OK today.
   1693. Ron J2 Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:09 PM (#4750016)
John Sides looks into polling and congressional races (linky)

First: Even very early polls have utility (and hence the fact that their own model doesn't yet include them weakens their significance). Polls as far out as 450 days still explain around 50% of the variation in outcomes. Now that's not great, but it is important. (And it looks like they start to get reasonably accurate in the June time frame)

As of right now polling can be expected to explain around 75% of the variation. And continue to slowly get more accurate. Looks like they peak at ~90% just before voting day.

And a key takeaway from another study: If you have a well polled Senate race, "fundamentals contribute very little additional information"

Of course not all Senate races are well polled (and house races are generally even more sketchy)
   1694. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4750017)
Thanks for the Torpedo reference, because I was struggling with who that was.


And I still have no clue. I hereby head Googleward.
   1695. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:10 PM (#4750020)
Oh ... a swimmer. One of those activities people care about for a few minutes every four years. No wonder his name meant nothing to me.
   1696. Mefisto Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:13 PM (#4750025)
I couldn't access the site most of yesterday. I was able to get on it somewhere around 3 pm PDT.
   1697. Ron J2 Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:17 PM (#4750028)
Yeah for me socks are one of those burdensome constraints civilization demands.


I had never understood the various impassioned arguments (and the strong opinions people hold) about (say) mayo. (or ... well you know what I'm talking about)

But this is just wrong. Socks are more me an inexpensive vice. Love them. One of life's simple pleasures for me is a new pair of socks.

Of course, diabetic with chronic foot pain and good socks help. But even before diabetes entered my life I had way more socks than is sane. (now when I buy a new pair, an old one goes)

And yes, professional help is available for this, but let's face it -- buying socks is cheaper than treating the problem.
   1698. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:24 PM (#4750042)
(now when I buy a new pair, an old one goes)


I really need to start doing this. I was in such a hurry this morning that, without realizing it, I pulled on a sock that has two rather large holes in it. Given my predilection for taking my shoes off at work (lamentable habit, I know, but I have bad feet), that's even more unfortunate than it would be for most people.

My favorite socks ever apparently went away when the Gibson's Discount Centers chain did, I guess some 30 years ago. *sigh*
   1699. Greg K Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:31 PM (#4750046)
I did buy some knee high fluorescent orange socks a couple months ago for playing softball. Those I like.

Other than that socks come in and out of my ownership in a rather haphazard way...a single sock may go into the garbage but his/her mate remains. Of the 19 socks I currently own, there are probably 5 matching pairs. And since I wash and store them individually, on any given morning I have maybe a 20% chance of putting on a matched pair. So I generally save those guys for special occasions, like if I'm going to be taking off my shoes publicly, or wearing shorts that day.

I really lucked out at a Sikh wedding last month, in that I totally forgot there were no shoes in the temple...but by a stroke of luck my socks matched! It's things like that, that make me fairly certain that the big guy upstairs is looking out for me.
   1700. A big pile of nonsense (gef the talking mongoose) Posted: July 14, 2014 at 12:34 PM (#4750048)
And since I wash and store them individually,


Wait ... what? Is this yet another bizarre Canadian thing?

Do you have 19 little drawers for your 19 socks? After you've gone through 19 little washday exercises for each of them?
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