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Baseball Primer Newsblog— The Best News Links from the Baseball Newsstand
Thursday, February 28, 2013
While working at the Detroit Tigers’ spring facility in Lakeland, Gov. Rick Scott announced today he will ask the Florida Legislature to set aside $5 million a year for projects specifically aimed at improving the Major League Baseball training facilities in the state.
“It’s my job as governor to make sure Florida remains the number one destination for spring training and that is why we will work to provide $5 million annually to only be used for spring training facilities,” Scott said in a statement that was released while Scott was participating in one of his “work days” with the Tigers at Joker Marchant Stadium in Lakeland.
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I don't think this is really true. As has been commented on here many times there hasn't been much public debate or outcry about drone usage and failures, public relations disaster implies that a lot of people in the US took note, cared, and made noise about it.
Does that fit other peoples' memories?
That's exactly right. Carter was a micromanager of epic proportion, and it drove everyone on his staff crazy.
Among the many contrasts between Carter and Reagan was their management styles: Carter was a workaholic who obsessed over every tiny detail, while Reagan was a nine-to-fiver who was happy to delegate (a trait that bit him in the butt with Iran-Contra, a fiasco for which he truly deserved to be impeached).
@702: Jim, abroad the drone strikes have put the US in a very bad light. As usual, though, in the US there's little to no grasp of foreigh policy and its effects.
I understand how unpopular it is in Pakistan. But Pakistan's harboring of international terrorists (including Bin Laden) and their irresponsible exporting of nuclear technology is also very unpopular, and far more dangerous. If they can't clean up their own mess, then they can't complain when someone else steps in to clean it up for them.
However, I don't think we should have a domestic drone program because think it's unnecessary. The reason we need the drone program overseas is because we have no other means of apprehension or interdiction. Domestic terrorists can be picked up by agents.
But all the overseas drone program is is another way of waging war. I don't have a problem with it per se. Military intervention is, as they say, a blunt instrument and it is impossible to completely prevent civilian casualties.
i'm a little uncomfortable with the way it is being handled, with the CIA carrying out the attackks. But I don't know enough of how it works to suggest an alternative.
Well, that's a negligible bit of idiocy, so I'm not too worried about that.
i'm a little uncomfortable with the way it is being handled, with the CIA carrying out the attacks.
Agreed with all of this. Drones are just another form of weapon; the issue isn't drones, the issue is deadly weapons and their reasonable use. And as far as that goes, for all their shortcomings, as weapons go, drones fall low on the collateral-damage scale.
The issue of deadly force, and against who and when, is, as always, the terribly complicated and difficult one. I think the focus on drones per se is misguided, but I enthusiastically welcome the heightened interest and energy on the question of deadly force and its implications.
I love statements like this. On one hand they sound reasonable. But Pakistan is a sovereign nation. And technically an ally. I think pretty much every sovereign nation in the history of the world gets to complain when another nation stages unwanted military actions their borders.
I am not even saying all the actions are wrong, but seriously they do get to complain. Imagine the shrieking if Canada (politely) sent drones into Detroit to get some Quebecois terrorists the locals were hiding. And yes It is not a perfect analogy, it is not meant to be. Being a sovereign nation means, well ...
Terrorist = Terrorist
Live in the same house as a Terrorist = Terrorist
Neighbor of a Terrorist = Terrorist
Son of a Terrorist = Terrorist
Over the age of 15 and in the vicinity of a Terrorist = Terrorist
Attend the funeral of a Terrorist = Terrorist
Randomly stop on the road to help
someonea Terrorist wounded in a drone strike = TerroristYoung child with the bad luck to stumble into a the killzone of a drone strike on a Terrorist =
TerroristDogSounds like something a terrorist would say!
Have I already won?
Sweet!
What's my prize???
Oh, right ... drone strike.
Well, what about the Mumbai attacks and other repeated incursions into India, especially Kashmir? Those terrorists were and are being trained by the ISI. What about their continued and relentless efforts to destabilize and enfeeble the fledgling Afghan government? What about the shielding of international arms terrorist A. Q. Khan?
Pakistan is our ally in name only. They're happy to take our money, but only pay lip service to what it is supposed to be used for. They divert most of it to fortify their arms for a future war with India. And what's good for the goose is good for the gander. They can't comp[lain about foreign intervention when that's what they do to their neighbors.
Here's a nice summary of our "ally" in an article written by Hitchens in Vanity Fair right after Bin Laden got his:
From Abbottabad to Worse
If Quebeqois terrorists were hiding in Detroit, the Canadian ambassador would ask our government to have them arrested and extradited and we would comply. Pakistan was hiding a man who funded and organized terrorist operations that bombed our embassies, attacked one of our warships, captured, tortured and then beheaded numerous American citizens including journalists, and killed 3000 Americans by hijacking jetliners and ramming them into the countries largest skyscraper and most important military facility. Yet, there he was, ensconced in a facility in a city analogous to Annapolis. And then, when we located him, we had to fly a hit squad in in radar-defeating helicopters and without informing their government because we knew he would have been tipped off and would have been allowed to escape.
Oh, and to make the analogy fit better, Canada would have to be paying us a few billion in aid every year. The analogy is terrible.
Everything else is window dressing. The pretense to an alliance is exactly that. It's a little like paying the lunatic down the road every year not to dump her toxic garbage into the pond bordering both your properties. Expecting her as a result to be a decent human being who stops beating her husband seems unreasonable.
The Pakistani government can only remain in power by retaining a state of not-war with various incredibly nasty groups and individuals. This means they are going to defend incredibly nasty people. They shouldn't do that, and it makes them a bad government supporting very bad things, but the logic of power here is intelligible. The US has done relatively similar kinds of things in its past, but with dictators instead of terrorists.
I support the use of means of doubtful legality to capture or kill Bin Laden and some various other incredibly bad people. I think it's a bad idea to write laws or dictate general policy based on a presumption that Bin Ladens are everywhere and such measures should be used regularly. I think that it's perfectly understandable why Pakistan complains, and Pakistan is not a uniquely bad state in world affairs, just a normal bad one.
I don't know. I think they would have been obliged to turn him over. Mrs. Aquino was popular on both sides of the aisle.
It's intelligible, but not for the reasons you state. The Pakistanis surreptitiously support the Taliban because they think the Taliban can serve as a useful proxy for manipulating and destabilizing Afghanistan, so that Afghanistan will be forced to be a compliant vassal of Pakistan after the US leaves.
I think the Pakistani policy towards the Taliban is both geo-politically repugnant and domestically myopic. By cultivating the Taliban, they have let the wolf in the door. The Taliban serve only a violent and angry Allah. They do not countenance moderation, modernity or respect for others unlike themselves. And not only do they not countenance it themselves, they do not allow others to countenance either.
I agree with the policy that a grant of asylum should be binding and permanent. You have to be good to your word to remain credible.
No argument, but there are Islamic extremists, and then there are Islamic extremists. There are those who want a nuclear weapon to use against the west (this is the great fear, not simply another WTC) or who are simply less able than the current Pakistani government to prevent the spread of weapons or weapons technology.
I don't imagine that US foreign policy wrt Pakistan would become magically enlightened if Pakistan did not possess nuclear weapons, but those weapons are a driving force in current US policy. Imagine the Taliban with a nuclear arsenal. Far more dangerous than Iran with nuclear weapons, and it's clear the US isn't going to allow Iran to possess nuclear weapons, a policy I've come to agree with.
Yes, I think he was a humongous shitbag. Under normal circumstances, he should have been tried for crimes. But the deal to leave in return for asylum was agreed to by both governments and should have been abided by.
I think the trade-off was a good one, asylum for one man in return for a stable transition to democracy. The Phillipines has its problems but it was way better off doing what it did then than having a transition something like Syria is going through now. Mandela did not go after his political enemies, even though they deserved to be gone after, and I think South Africa is the better off for it.
Meh. I've reconciled myself to the fact that Iran is going to have nuclear weapons in the next year or two whether we like it or not. Their nuclear program has essentially zero internal opposition and short of an invasion, I don't think we can stop them from making a few. If we couldn't stop the North Koreans, how in god's name are we going to stop the Iranians?
While it's possible that key elements of Iran's program are buried so deeply they'll thwart even bunker busters, there's no doubt a bombing raid rather than a ground assault is how the program will be stopped.
North Korea was a very different situation. I imagine, though, there are a lot of people who were in government at the time that would like a mulligan wrt N. Korean nukes.
Iran having a bomb actually doesn't worry me that much. North Korea is much more reckless. They're liable to do anything. The Iranians tend to be provocative but realistic.
From the wiki on "North Korea and Weapons of Mass Destruction":
Of course, Bush administration officials blamed North Korea getting nuclear weapons squarely on Clinton. After all, well, Monica.
I'm trying to imagine how a war between Israel and Iran would transpire. There's no shared border and neither country has the ability to project much power onto the other. Bombing raids are possible but require the violation of neutral airspace so would be intermittent if they happened at all. Neither country has much of a navy, certainly nothing that could support anything larger than a regiment-sized raid. Israel has nukes but can't use them, or even threaten to use them.
It would be like two dogs trying to fight through a chain-linked fence.
Some problems with this. Repeated bombing raids can probably prevent Iran from getting a nuke. Redoubling their efforts won't make much difference if every three years bombing runs destroy their capabilities.
The current Iranian government is not especially worrisome, but a far more radical government is well within the realm of possibility. Further, it's not just a given government we need to be concerned with, but the more radical elements within that government who might covertly give weapons or weapons technology to radical factions or other nations. Imagine Iran's close ally, Syria, with a 20 kiloton warhead, for example.
Also, we have to think in terms of, not one bomb, but a dozen, or a hundred. On top of this, the fear of use and the leverage that comes with the implicit threat of use, makes a potential enemy that much more dangerous.
Finally, it's not just governments, but physicists themselves. Abdul Qadeer Khan smuggled bomb-making tech and some materials out of Pakistan.
edit: keep in mind, Israel's already done this sort of thing. In 1981 they bombed an Iraqi reactor of French design they suspected was contributing (iirc) fissile material to Iraq's nuclear weapons program.
Points above well-taken but, as you mentioned previously, bombing raids will just cause them to move more and more of their operations underground where even the bunkerbusters can't get at them.
To paraphrase Burke, nuclear weapons and religious zeal go ill together but an invasion is off the table, I think, and the Iranians have all the time in the world to build that nuke brick by brick.
I'll check it out, but I'd be amazed if among Israeli voters the following question got a majority 'no' response: "If it was the only thing Israel could do to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was bomb their weapons-building facilities, would you support such a raid?"
Sorry if I'm misreading what you mean by "power", but Isreal does have the ability to vaporize Baghdad and turn Iran into a desert. The total is unclear, but every estimate I've read gives Israel between 70 and 450 nukes.
edit: re 734, I agree it's a logistical nightmare, but at this point the Iraqi Air Force and Iraq's ground to air defense is dysfunctional to the point of being non-existent, so I don't believe today Iraq would be an obstacle. I do think the last thing the US wants to do is be visibly associated with an Israeli raid. Well, maybe the second to last thing, the first being keeping Iran non-nuclear. Hasn't Obama been explicit on this?
It may also be that the Israeli government believes a nuclear Iran is an existential threat to the point that you simply do whatever is necessary to destroy its ability to build nukes; if that only pushes the problem five years down the road, then so be it. Maybe you figure that in five years your bunker busters will be able to dig deeper, or that you'll have a better version of the Stuxnet virus, or that a new government will be more tractable, and willing to give up its nuclear ambitions in return for bigger and better rewards...
"If carefully targeted drone missiles were the only way the U.S. could prevent overseas American citizens from conspiring with terrorists to blow up American embassies all over Europe and Asia, would you support such a program?" Three guesses which way that that one would go.
That was March 2012. Obama hasn't wavered.
Can't link to it, but it's at
http://articles.cnn.com/2012-03-04/politics/politics_obama-aipac_1_nuclear-weapon-weapons-grade-uranium-obama-pledges?_s=PM:POLITICS
The Atlantic also ran a persuasive article:
A lot of good details, and quotes, follow.
From http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/10/obamas-crystal-clear-promise-to-stop-iran-from-getting-a-nuclear-weapon/262951/
That article in turn links to another Atlantic article,
"Obama to Iran and Israel: 'As President of the United States, I Don't Bluff' "
That, in turn (the a function isn't working) is from
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2012/03/obama-to-iran-and-israel-as-president-of-the-united-states-i-dont-bluff/253875/
Wired
Link to PDF
I wonder at the morality of something like (while realizing it's bullying), simply asserting,
"We will help you in numerous ways to compensate you for our refusal to allow you to develop nuclear weapons, and we will do everything possible to find an adequate substitute for what nuclear energy programs would otherwise give you, but you can't have weapons, and we will bomb your facilities if you persist".
In that case, logically the only think Iran could do to lift the threat is to develop a bomb.
Logic (or reason) suggests another course, though. IF you knew that your country would be subjected to extremely destructive bombing raids that would continually make your nuclear program the equivalent of towing bargeloads of rials every month into the middle of the Persian Gulf and sinking them, you might decide that an agreement that stabilizes your economy and your own political power even as you maintain the region's most powerful conventional army, is in your best interests.
The alternative could well be a decade long struggle costing billions of dollars and thousands of lives and that ends in still not having the bomb. I won't pretend to understand Iran's internal politics enough to ably predict, but at some point national pride can turn into resentment if a course of action--the pursuit of nuclear weapons--becomes an extraordinary drain impoverishing the country.
If only I had put in something ...
Oh wait, if only you could read.
The point is of course sovereign nations get to complain about violations of their sovereignty. They always have and they always will. And when they have the power they do something about it. Pretending because we are the USA! and "our cause is pure" so it is OK we violate other countries sovereignty is silly. We get away with it because we are the biggest kid on the block with bombs and money and connections. However the original statement that Pakistan doesn't get to compalin is asinine.
Of course. If I was Iran I'd want a big bomb too. Who thinks otherwise?
It won't destabilize their political power. It will fortify their political power. An attack on their nuclear facilities will be seen by the rank and file as an attack on Persian sovereignty and national pride. The people will take the economic hit willingly if the alternative is to lose face before the world.
If there is perhaps one thing that would most fortify the Iranian regime's political power, it would be a military attack by the US and/or Israel. And, as has been pointed out, in the long run it's probably impossible to prevent their development of a bomb. Thus I'm far from thrilled about Obama's posture on this one so far, though it likely matters little what the US does.
There's a big difference between an imperfect analogy and an unfit one. Your analogy just doesn't fly. At all.
They can complain all they want. We just don't have to listen to it, as we are paying them the right to not listen. I haven't yet heard one Pakistani leader say he's not interested in the money.
And when they do complain, they have to not forget that what they are complaining about, they are guilty of in spades.
It should be pointed out that Iran has consistently denied that it is attempting to produce nuclear weapons. Yes, yes, I know, they are pathological liars and the fact that they deny it means it's doubly certain, or something.
You are still missing the point. There is not some magical unicorn of justice that decides when sovereignty matters and when it doesn't. Either you respect it or you don't. And there are times you can ignore another nations sovereignty, but don't pretend "justice" and "unicorns", admit what you are doing, you can do it because you are big and bad and they can't stop you. It is raw power and often ugly.
I don't have a problem with real politic, but the occasional "We are the USA we get to act this way because red, white, and blue" is obnoxious. The US has been in the wrong plenty of times, but other nation respect our sovereignty even when we are, not because of the unicorn, but because we are big, bad, and worldwide. Pretending otherwise is infantile.
Foreign policy through hippy would have been more effective the last 30 years than actual foreign policy has been*. However in today's world it is just a fact that countries want atomic power because it means some random rogue superpower won't go on a wild hair and invade countries with "the bomb". I wish it wasn't so, but it is.
* Note: This is not an endorsement of all or even most hippy led foreign policy, rather an endightment of neo con "policy" and the watered down version many dems favor. However I am sure the thrust of this message will be ignored and some idiot will explain to me all the dumb stuff hippies believe and then lecture me about it. Such is the internet.
If you know you're saying something stupid (you did, on both counts), rather than attempt to pre-empt criticism of your stupid statement, how about just not saying it? It's possible to indict the foolishness of neocon foreign policy without replacing it with something that's also really foolish.
Which erroneous report was authored, I regret to note, by a friend of mine whose hedline obits I used to edit in Little Rock when she was just starting out. Not sure how she whiffed so badly on this one, but she definitely did.
I mean, finding out who is trying to develop nuclear weapons is like the whole reason for the CIA. They're pretty good at that part of their jobs. I believe the CIA over a holocaust denier.
I think the US has made poor use of our most valuable foreign policy tool - our image. We're the world's leading exporter of pop culture - other countries are predisposed to like us, despite the asymmetry in power. Let's not be #####, when possible.
On Iran: I don't know what the right answer is. I do agree that their acquisition of nuclear armaments is a matter of when, not if. How do we capitalize on the schism between the political views of the Iranian populace versus that government's leadership (and, moreso, the figurehead Ahmadinejad)?
No question about that, and while every Presidential administration since somewhere around Eisenhower has participated in the blunder, the GWB administration took it to a whole new plane.
How do we capitalize on the schism between the political views of the Iranian populace versus that government's leadership (and, moreso, the figurehead Ahmadinejad)?
An example of a challenge that would be far less difficult without the Iraq debacle.
We'll find those WMD's in Iraq any day now.
This is mostly American self-delusion.
Look how well they did in Iraq!
Damn: Coke to PFPH.
Anyway, to add something substantive I've long thought that Iran and the U.S. are natural allies. Geopolitically, Iran is much less invested in the Palestinian situation than the Arab world, as a Shiite power is a potential counterweight to the other Sunni states in the region, is a neighbor of Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, where we still have interests. I wish we could have a more productive relationship.
Maybe. They (not everybody, but I'm in generality mode) certainly seem to like 'things' about us. They like some of the myth of America. This is a instrument we can use.
Mission Accomplished.
How meta of you.
I think much our the US foreign policy over the past few decades has been a train wreck. I think hippy FP would have been an improvement. This is a very soft endorsement of hippy FP.
The fact that you think this is somehow "saying something stupid and recognizing it" says much much more about you and your argumentation style than it does what I was saying. Care to address the substance? Because that is what I was trying to get to, which is why I admire your meta criticism approach, despite finding it dishonest and loathsome, it is creative and very you.
They (in particular DMN and RDP) reliably hit Republican talking points, but it's driven by hostility to the Dems.
If an "undesirable" state goes nuclear, you have to work to _stabilize_ that state from within. Hearts, Minds, Sitcoms, video games.
Why this fundamental is so hard to grasp, I don't know. The way the lesson was taught to me was, "Never wrestle with a pig. You both get dirty, and the pig likes it."
I've thought about this awhile and considered the "peaceful use only" angle but have rejected it for a number of reasons:
1. If their program was totally on the up and up, they would have no objection to the intrusions of the international inspectors. But the international inspectors have claimed they are not being allowed to see certain sites, or certain areas within sites, have been given false information and documentation and have discovered information and documentation that was destroyed.
2. There was the recently discovered secret facility to account for. I suppose you could make the claim that the Iranians are afraid that they will be bombed regardless of the intent of their program but if they really want to convince people their program is legit, building secret facilities is not exactly the way to go about it.
3. They have a concurrent missile development program that is ongoing and the missiles appear to be the type that are designed to carry warheads. There's no need for weaponized ballistic missiles unless you intend to arm them with something serious.
4. They are intent on developing uranium enrichment levels that exceed civilian uses, and the only other use is for weapons.
5. There appears to be unanimous or at least near-unanimous international agreement Iran's program is trending military. That wasn't true with regard to Iraq's WMDs. Even China and Russia voted yes on the newest rounds of sanctions.
6. They have insisted on developing their own uranium enrichment capability, even though an offer was made to purchase the nuclear fuel from Russia at very attractive prices.
7. They built a second reactor that they claim they needed to make medical radioisotopes. But the reactor they already have has excess capacity for these isotopes so they didn't really need a second reactor.
None of these things, by themselves, means that Iran is developing a nuclear bomb. But each one of them is supportive of a bomb program. Another interpretation is that Iran has no intention to actually build weapons but is building the capacity for them, so that other countries suspect they might have them. In this scenario, ironically, they are copying a page from Israel's playbook. But I think they actually want to build them, so they have a credible deterrent should a future US or Israeli or combined Sunni attack threaten. They saw
I'd thought the above wrong--that repeated attacks over a decade (which would be necessary: A single attack of the kind that would only push back Iran's developing a bomb by two years only to let them continue to completion, makes no sense) might over time tend to strengthen Iran's serious internal opposition to its ruling government. But--I can't find a single commentator familiar with Iran's politics who thinks it will do anything other than strengthen the government, especially in the short term. They just won't get the blame no matter what the carrots. They're just not seen internally as provoking a raid, even though there are plenty of commentators who seen the Iranian government's behavior as aimed at doing just that. Iraq's attack on Iran had that kind of result; it solidified Iran's internal politics against a common enemy.
Two factors beyond what both of you mentioned are, the attacks on Iran's bomb-making infrastructure would have to be ongoing. It's the worst of all worlds to bomb now and in two years shrug and allow the program to go to completion. The second factor is we're not talking about Iran with one nuclear weapon, but with a dozen, or a hundred. Bo one stops at one. It doesn't make sense economically or strategically to have one nuke.
-----------------------
The whole 'we have the moral high ground' ship sailed a while ago. Tortures, black sites, Guantanamo, routinely supporting dictatorships, supporting death squads in Latin America... that doesn't mean we shouldn't aim for the high ground, but we sure as hell don't own it and we sure as hell aren't on it.
Sure, but we poisoned that pond. Imagine if Iran had overthrown Reagan right after he assumed the Presidency in 1980 and installed, oh, the head of the John Birch Society who then ran the country through 2008, when he was overthrown and Obama was elected. Let's say the Birchers ran a secret police apparatus that through torture and murder ran the country for fun and profit for that quarter century. In a couple hundred years you might consider establishing non-hostile relations.
And the check is in the mail.
Iran suffers chronic gasoline shortages. They need the currency generated by oil sales. The need for nuclear power is legit.
That's due to a lack of refinery capacity. Nuclear power doesn't replace gasoline.
Not just that. They also have problems with keeping their wells working at capacity because they were all built with American equipment and, because of the embargo, have trouble maintaining them. They also have great difficulty opening any new fields, even though they have very rich ones to exploit potentially. When Cheney et al were banging the war drums in the 2000's, a paper was published in 2007 by Rober Stern that estimated their declining infrastructure and speculated that they would not be able to export oil soon and be more amenable to negotiation once their economy was sufficiently crippled. That paper had the dual useful purpose of deflating the warmongers like Cheney and Bolton and Rumsfeld while pointing the way to our present policy.
WaP story:
Iran Oil Revenue Quickly Drying Up, Analysis Says
Here' a quote:
If the United States can "hold its breath" for a few years, it may find Iran a much more conciliatory country, he said. And that, Stern said, is good reason to delay any instinct to take on Iran militarily.
"What they are doing to themselves is much worse than anything we could do," he said.
Breathing Isn't Easy In China
The funny thing about tech is that it spreads like venereal disease once's it's out in the world. I'm sure we're all going to be aghast when some terrorist cell starts dropping explosives on western cities with drones too. How dare anyone *else* play with our toys?!
And Andy, yeah I have been reading about the air pollution there, just brutal.
The Iranians have come to realize that suing Hollywood is the best way to gain respect.
Once again, lawyers on retainer to the rescue!
That's the smell of industry, hippie.
That's impossible. The air is all over the world, and the world is too big for us to truly impact. Besides, if the air is getting more toxic, well, that's just something that's happening and there's nothing we can do to stop it. Just accept it. It's probably just a toxicity trend, anyways.
Other than that, Mr. Nieporent, how did you enjoy the play?
Sure. My point isn't that it's spreading because we're using it. My point is that most people will only find a problem with using the tech when it's used against them.
It makes perfect sense to try and cover some of the local demand with nuclear power while selling as much oil as is possible.
I'm not saying they don't have a weapons program, just that screwed up internal policies mean that they can't afford to use their own oil domestically.
We're practically allies with Vietnam now...
OTOH Iran's regime is in many ways based on being Anti-American, we're the Great Satan- whereas in Vietnam their problem is that we were there, when we left they simply ceased having a problem with us (more or less).
Plus we are "allies" with Saudi Arabia - the Saudis' tend to act covertly and through proxies, but there is little doubt than they see the Saudis' as their main rivals in the region - and the Saudi regime may be even more regressive than the one in Teheran.
Plus plus- so long as we are on their border (Afghanistan) - they are not going to give up their nuclear weapons project - at one point we had a couple hundred thousand troops [COMBAT TROOPS] ON THE GROUND in bordering states (Iraq + Afghanistan)- if you are in the Iranian Government that had to be giving them many sleepless nights
that was from 2006, they were producing 3.7 million barrels a day , now they are under 3 million a day, but have "plans" to get back up to 5 by 2020...
Sleepless nights? Not so much. For the conservative elements (including the Revolutionary Guard, which controls a lot of economic activity), that's exactly what they wanted. They wanted the U.S. bogeyman parked right next door to help whip up the population. And they worked to make that happen. Oh, they didn't have anything at all to do with Al Qaeda. But on the Iraqi side ... was Ahmed Chalabi an Iranian agent all along? I'm pretty sure that Iranians in positions of power found ways to feed the Bush administration what it wanted to hear, and wanted the U.S. to invade Iraq.
As always, there are various levels of disconnect between the population at large that the current power structure. I know some Persians, and one impression I have of the self-image of a typical Persian is that they are, above all, civilized. (And they had been civilized for a very long time when my ancestors were still barbarians.)
Seriously? We'd just invaded and conquered a neighboring country in less than a month- a country they'd been pushed to the limit to fight to a draw after a decade of fighting- we pretty clearly had the physical ability to drive to Teheran if we wanted to.
Of course you and I would say that the US had no stomach for more invasions- but who knows what was going on inside their minds? We'd labeled them a one third of an Axis of Evil- and considering where are forces were physically stationed- if we were going to tackle number 2- they were next in line.
Sure their government uses us as a bogeyman- wants us as a bogeyman- but having the bogeyman actually materialize on their doorstep? That's something else entirely- if you look at it from their POV- we were on their Western Border (Iraq), on their East (Afghanistan) and their Southern (we control the Indian Ocean at will)- and we had just shown a willingness to use that force-
and don't forget the ability of people to drink their own koolaid- we're the Great Satan- we want to stamp out the Islamic Revolution, piss on the Ummah...
"Bomb bomb bomb, bomb bomb Iran..."
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