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Monday, March 12, 2018

OTP 12 March 2018: Trevor Bauer thinks Major League Baseball trying to silence him on Twitter

Last February, Bauer made waves on Twitter when he argued over politics with his followers. He tweeted that almost all of the Indians supported Donald Trump and told another user they were “welcome to quit life.”

Bauer has been much calmer as of late and that could be because MLB stepped in. The 27-year-old hasn’t tweeted that much this offseason and when he does it’s been about things like the Olympics and his training.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 12, 2018 at 08:17 AM | 1718 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: cleveland indians, off topic, politics, twitter

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   1601. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:16 AM (#5639648)
Facts have a liberal bias.
   1602. Chicago Joe Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:26 AM (#5639653)
"Occasional rats in the alleys to deal with"?
I'm not sure which part of this phrase is more intriguing.
   1603. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 07:26 AM (#5639661)
I submitted a new thread for the week, so watch for it.
   1604. BrianBrianson Posted: March 19, 2018 at 07:33 AM (#5639662)
No, you're right, sorry, I should have paraphrased him more accurately. In the context of the conversation, he was talking specifically about administrative ideas. Land management, conflict resolution, justice system. Economics. And even then you can still find things, like the consensus legislature of the NWT.


My vague understanding is also that the American Constitution took a good deal from the Iroquois Confederacy, too, for instance, but that might not be your day-to-day experience if you're living on a reserve in Northern BC. And of course, that may be part of why our instincts come at it a bit different - all First Nations dudes and dudettes I speak to at any length live off reserve in southern Ontario, most notably my uncle who's a retired accountant in suburban Toronto, and his kids & grandkids. So, not a place where there's much of a separateness.

But, and maybe it's a Canadian perspective, but if you talk about culture, of course my mind first goes to language and food. Sharing culture opens with sharing food. Of course, we don't usually explicitly label foods as Indian, I can't really think of a dish I'd so label, except maybe three sisters soup and pemmican (and one rarely eats the latter outside of like, museums).
   1605. manchestermets Posted: March 19, 2018 at 08:13 AM (#5639664)
Is there anyone who's not at least mildly surprised that the $10 million penalty wasn't to be made payable to Donald J. Trump?


Is there anyone who doesn't think that in his head at least, it's the same thing now?
   1606. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 08:16 AM (#5639665)
I used to walk around Adams-Morgan day and night long before serious gentrification set in, and while it wasn't fancy and there were the occasional rats in the alley to deal with, it wasn't 14th St. or "You" Street, which had a few struggling businesses, a few that were doing well (Ben's), and a thriving open air drug trade....

"Occasional rats in the alleys to deal with"?
I'm not sure which part of this phrase is more intriguing.


Ever have a "Ben" experience? I'm a lazy ############, and my laziness one evening almost caused my doom. It was 50 years ago but the sight still creeps me out whenever I think of it.

Came out of a pool room one evening in the 1400 block of Irving St. because I had to get something out of my car that was parked on Columbia Rd., one block south. I had a friend with me, and he was as lazy as I was, so we ducked down a long flight of steps into an apartment building across the street to take a shortcut through the basement, rather than having to walk all the way up to 15th St. and back down.

No problem getting to the car, but when we returned by the same route, we had to walk back up those stairs to get back to Irving St. But when we got about halfway up the stairs, we saw this ####### giant rat who looked just like this, perched on the stairway rail and silhouetted against the street light, waiting to pounce on us, and probably me first, since everyone knows how whites are always being preyed upon in black neighborhoods. Needless to say, we beat a strategic retreat.

But that was Columbia Heights, and I'm glad to report that the occasional rats I encountered in the alleys of Adams-Morgan were much more docile and used to scamper if I said "BOO!" And any rats who thought about invading our apartment building on Mintwood Place never had a chance of surviving the combined forces of Bob the Super and his two teenaged sons, Hot Dog and Hamburger. You didn't want to mess with those three, even if you were a rat.

   1607. Random Transaction Generator Posted: March 19, 2018 at 08:31 AM (#5639666)
   1608. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 08:37 AM (#5639667)

My vague understanding is also that the American Constitution took a good deal from the Iroquois Confederacy, too,
Not really. This is mostly PC wishful thinking. Not only is there little evidence to support the claim -- the founders were aware of the Iroquois arrangement, but said very little about it -- but there's just very little similarity beyond the notion of a federal system of government in the first place.
   1609. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:00 AM (#5639680)
I see the moron is still yelling at clouds via Twitter during "executive time"...
   1610. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:03 AM (#5639681)
Can someone explain the point of sham elections to me? Is there someone that's impressed when Saddam Hussein wins an election with 99% of the vote?
   1611. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:09 AM (#5639682)
Can someone explain the point of sham elections to me? Is there someone that's impressed when Saddam Hussein wins an election with 99% of the vote?


My youngest boy made an interesting point about democracy, it is great and all, but when one candidate gets much past 60% of the vote it is pretty clear something has gone wrong.

So yeah, he and I agree, sham elections with silly high percentages don't actually look good and are a sign of something seriously wrong.
   1612. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:18 AM (#5639686)
Well, it's enough to fool TGF and FLTB, both of whom have claimed that North Korea is a democracy.

Other than them, I doubt there's a single person who's fooled. But even a sham election gives a tiny patina of legitimacy in a way that simply declaring oneself dictator does not.
   1613. Greg K Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:22 AM (#5639687)
Can someone explain the point of sham elections to me? Is there someone that's impressed when Saddam Hussein wins an election with 99% of the vote?

One explanation I've read (particularly in reference to Russia) is that sham elections are useful for the dictator's relationship with the oligarchs around him. They are opportunities for them to show the leader public support, and to a certain extent reminders that they are replaceable. There's a broader political community out there that can be directed against you if you don't toe the line.

I think there's also an international element. By mimicking the elections of the "free" world you're making an argument that democracy isn't what it claims. "Maybe elections here are obviously a sham, but do you think they are any freer in American? Don't be naïve".

I haven't read it yet, but a recent article suggests that elections are short-term dangerous, long-term advantageous for dictatorships. The gist appears to be elections can be flash-points for opposition or coups, but in the long-run they offer opportunities to co-opt opposition forces, or gather intelligence on opposition which may otherwise lie underground. So in aggregate elections make an immediate crisis for your dictatorship more likely, but also make it more likely that it will last longer than otherwise.
   1614. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5639696)
So yeah, he and I agree, sham elections with silly high percentages don't actually look good and are a sign of something seriously wrong.


That's clear to us, of course. It's clear to the "international community." It's clear to the local elites and other politicians and such. So is the point to dupe the rubes out in the countryside?

Or maybe Putin wants the edifice of democracy to live on after he steps down. He just thinks that he's so great that it's ok for him to be an autocrat for a while.

edit > Just saw #1613. Thank you, good response. Interesting ideas in there.
   1615. Greg K Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:34 AM (#5639698)
Skimming through the article now, one of the ideas appears to be looking at elections "events" rather than "institutional actions". In democracies we tend to think of them primarily as ways of conferring legitimacy on the government, but they can serve as useful a "point of contact" between government and the people. Especially in a country where there isn't much of a public sphere or civil society, governments can have a real information problem in the absence of elections.
   1616. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:44 AM (#5639701)
OK, after dealing with a bit of a health issue, I'm back.

What'd I miss?
   1617. dlf Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:51 AM (#5639703)
What'd I miss?


Hmmm, lengthy discussions of music, cosmic radiation, intelligence measurements (and the lack thereof in certain posters), housing policy, Trump's tweets ...

Nothing much.
   1618. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:53 AM (#5639704)
What'd I miss?


Hmmm, lengthy discussions of music, cosmic radiation, intelligence measurements (and the lack thereof in certain posters), housing policy, Trump's tweets ...

Nothing much.


OK, so the usual palaver and twaddle.

Sorry I wasn't able to contribute...
   1619. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 10:59 AM (#5639708)
SBB somehow used a conversation about The Beatles/Stones as a leaping off point for another Modern Liberals harangue.

Oh, and there are three types of people here:

1. Those that think "culture" and "race" are so impossible to define and assess that there's practically no point in even discussing the topic.
2. Those that think that Western culture is pretty great but aren't sure why it worked out that way.
3. Those that think white people are superior.
   1620. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:01 AM (#5639709)

I haven't read it yet, but a recent article suggests that elections are short-term dangerous, long-term advantageous for dictatorships. The gist appears to be elections can be flash-points for opposition or coups, but in the long-run they offer opportunities to co-opt opposition forces, or gather intelligence on opposition which may otherwise lie underground. So in aggregate elections make an immediate crisis for your dictatorship more likely, but also make it more likely that it will last longer than otherwise.
That makes sense more in places like Putin's Russia or Erdogan's Turkey or Maduro's Venezuela than it does in places like Hussein's Iraq. The first group actually do have open oppositions; the latter did not.
   1621. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:03 AM (#5639712)
Well there are shams, and there are shams.
   1622. Swoboda is freedom Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:18 AM (#5639721)
Well there are shams, and there are shams.


It's a travesty of a mockery of a sham of a mockery of a travesty of two mockeries of a sham.

Sam the Sham?
   1623. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:26 AM (#5639723)
Strangely, Democrats don't seem interested in reprising their Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here and . . . almost nowhere else - Democratic Leaders Pull Back From Hard Line Immigration Demand:
Democratic leaders are backing off of their demand that "Dreamer" protections be a part of the 2018 budget negotiations. While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democratic leaders had hinged their support for last month’s budget caps deal on a commitment from Republicans to consider legislation salvaging the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, they’ve signaled they won’t hold a similar line heading into next week’s expected vote on an omnibus spending bill.

The apparent change in strategy has angered immigrant rights advocates in and out of Congress, who want the minority Democrats to use their rare leverage on the omnibus government funding package — among the last must-pass bills of the year — to secure protections for the hundreds of thousands of young immigrants who came to the country illegally as children.

Seems like a rejection of the collective wisdom of BBTF-OTP Team Blue.
   1624. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5639727)
Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here and . . . almost nowhere else


Not by me. I thought the (D)s folded like a $7 suit.
   1625. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:37 AM (#5639733)
Strangely, Democrats don't seem interested in reprising their Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here and . . . almost nowhere else - Democratic Leaders Pull Back From Hard Line Immigration Demand:


I guess Trumpubicans take their "victories" where they can get them, what with the ~110th or so at risk GOP seat flipping last week and Trump being "unleashed"...
   1626. BrianBrianson Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5639735)
If YC asserts a number of Democrats acted in a certain way, you can reliably conclude that number is order unity.
   1627. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:43 AM (#5639736)
Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here and . . . almost nowhere else

There's not going to be any real immigration reform until the Democrats at the very least control Congress. There are simply way too many mini-Arpaios in the "Freedom" Caucus** who will mau-mau the rest of their party into submission on the subject.

** Which has about as much to do with freedom as Jeff Sessions' Justice Department has to do with justice.



   1628. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:54 AM (#5639745)
Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here

Pardon?
   1629. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:58 AM (#5639749)

There's not going to be any real immigration reform
And by real immigration reform, Andy means reform in the direction he prefers; reforming it a different way doesn't count as reform to him.
   1630. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: March 19, 2018 at 11:59 AM (#5639750)
Pardon?
Stop saying that word. You'll just give people ideas.
   1631. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:02 PM (#5639752)
Pardon?


Shhhh. He's on a roll.

In reality the vast majority of the "victories" and "defeats" touted in the various news cycles are flash in the pan events that long term don't move the needle much at all. I don't think various shutdowns and obstructions from either party have been parlayed into much if any success long term, despite the occasional short term "victory" declared.

As someone who follows this stuff I want it to be important and used to think it had some importance, but more and more I have come to the opinion it is mostly irrelevant. One of the few remaining places I think it is maybe significant is as a signal to activists and various high knowledge groups. And once that signal has been sent there is not much value in sending it over and over again. Everyone knows the GOP hates healthcare and immigrants, and democrats love illegals and socialism already. :)
   1632. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:03 PM (#5639753)
P-Fish, #1621:
Well there are shams, and there are shams.



In Russia, the people are Sham and Putin is Secretariat. Hey, both of them are the "Big Red."

Oddly, Putin is Secretariat but also would have outranked the Secretariat.



Clapper, #1623:
Strangely, Democrats don't seem interested in reprising their Schumer Shutdown "victory", which was so widely touted here and . . . almost nowhere else

Beyond Clapper's . . . fanciful phrasing, why oh why would the Dems cave on this issue? Their weakness is apparent, and their goals and motive are incomprehensible.
   1633. BrianBrianson Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:08 PM (#5639754)
Oh, and there are three types of people here:

1. Those that think "culture" and "race" are so impossible to define and assess that there's practically no point in even discussing the topic.
2. Those that think that Western culture is pretty great but aren't sure why it worked out that way.
3. Those that think white people are superior.


It's perhaps a little chicken and egg-y, but it's because we're rich, and acting like westerners makes you rich. You can watch it happen in real time across a lot of the world.
   1634. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5639755)
I believe at the time my summary of the whole thing was that it was going to be a big old nothingburger come the election. I believe the YC's of the world projected that the shutdown would cause a schism amongst the Democrats and their voters. But then again he's predicted that when the guy at Jimmy Johns forgets to hold the sprouts on your sandwich so take that with a grain of salt.
   1635. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:16 PM (#5639760)
There's not going to be any real immigration reform

And by real immigration reform, Andy means reform in the direction he prefers; reforming it a different way doesn't count as reform to him.


You're right, I don't think Donald Trump's proposal to protect DACA recipients in return for FAIR's wish list is much of a reform.

Let's not mince words: This is a battle between those who see immigration as a positive force and those who see immigrants mainly as job stealers and criminals. Broadly speaking, the Democrats represent one side of the line and John Kelly represents the other.

As for you, I'm still hoping that one of these days your fellow libertarian Nick Gillespie will school you on what's at stake here. I doubt if he's quite as enamored of ICE as you seem to be.
   1636. BDC Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:21 PM (#5639761)
I once followed the Schumer line blindly, but since the Shutdown he is dead to me.
   1637. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:27 PM (#5639764)
I named my firstborn daughter "Chuck Schumer," but when I later learned that the Minority Leader was operating out of political calculation, I had the child's throat slit.
   1638. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:29 PM (#5639765)
Oh, and there are three types of people here:

1. Those that think "culture" and "race" are so impossible to define and assess that there's practically no point in even discussing the topic.
2. Those that think that Western culture is pretty great but aren't sure why it worked out that way.
3. Those that think white people are superior.


No one here thinks 3.
   1639. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5639766)
While House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and other Democratic leaders had hinged their support for last month’s budget caps deal on a commitment from Republicans to consider legislation salvaging the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) program, they’ve signaled they won’t hold a similar line heading into next week’s expected vote on an omnibus spending bill.


So you're saying Pelosi and other Democrats are ...
   1640. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:31 PM (#5639767)
This is a battle between those who see immigration as a positive force and those who see immigrants mainly as job stealers and criminals. Broadly speaking, the Democrats represent one side of the line and John Kelly represents the other.

More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.
   1641. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:33 PM (#5639769)
No one here thinks 3.
3. Those that think white people are of superior intelligence.
How about now?
   1642. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:36 PM (#5639771)
I went out to a rock AND roll concert the other night. The band I saw is named Earthless, which is a "stoner metal." I'd never seen anything like it before but it was kind of like if Black Sabbath decided to concentrate on lengthy instrumental jams. That sounds terrible but it was kind of great actually. I wasn't stoned, but probably would have enjoyed it even more had I been.

I went because I wanted to see the opening band, a Japanese psychedelic outfit named Kikagaku Moyo. They were great. They all have very long black hair, and they were wearing bell bottoms and flowery button down shirts, totally un-ironic adoption of Strawberry Alarm Clark style goofy optimistic hippy fashion. One guy plays electric sitar.
   1643. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5639773)
I'd never seen anything like it before but it was kind of like if Black Sabbath decided to concentrate on lengthy instrumental jams. It was kind of great actually.

Saw a band in the 90s called Nebula (Actually, 2000, if that counts) that to my recollection would have been similar. Been awhile, though.
   1644. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5639774)
More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.


Given ######## countries and the failed bill GOP hardliners proposed and everything else Trump - from the Mexican blood tainted Hoosier judge to present, I think you can dispense with your fluffy distinction and stop pretending it matters.
   1645. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:40 PM (#5639777)
3. Those that think white people are superior.

No one here thinks 3.
That's funny for two reasons; A), no one can claim to know what *everyone* thinks in their heart, and there's almost certainly a goodly number of people on all sides of any political spectrum that believe this to one degree or another. And 2), SBB himself posted the other day about brown people being incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.
   1646. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:43 PM (#5639778)
2), SBB himself posted the other day about brown people being incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.


Let's be fair, he didn't say that. He said that brown cultures were incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.
   1647. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5639779)
More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.


Nah. Partisan spin aside the real question is, having acknowledged the scope and impact of illegal immigration in the US, how should the US government respond? What do we actually do about it?

The two competing visions - in very high level terms - seems to be:

1) They broke the law, therefore they are criminals and should be treated as such.
2) Treating them only as criminals is harmful (to us and them) in a variety of ways. Let's try to be more nuanced than that.
   1648. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:44 PM (#5639780)
More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.

Given ######## countries and the failed bill GOP hardliners proposed and everything else Trump - from the Mexican blood tainted Hoosier judge to present, I think you can dispense with your fluffy distinction and stop pretending it matters.

Make that Andy and Zonk who don't find the distinction between illegal aliens and lawful immigrants to be meaningful, although I note that he seemed careful to adhere to Canadian immigration laws when he fled the country.
   1649. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:47 PM (#5639781)
Make that Andy and Zonk who don't find the distinction between illegal aliens and lawful immigrants to be meaningful,


Neither does your orange boss and his minions...

But hey, if you think that's bad and the distinction matters to you - good for you. Too bad your masters feel otherwise.
   1650. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:54 PM (#5639783)
This is a battle between those who see immigration as a positive force and those who see immigrants mainly as job stealers and criminals. Broadly speaking, the Democrats represent one side of the line and John Kelly represents the other.

More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.


Scratch the surface of people who talk like that, and you'll usually find people like John Kelly, whose stated ideal quota for legal immigration would be "a number between zero and one". You can look far and wide to find the loudest screamers about illegal immigration who also want to increase the legal variety for anyone other than a few thousand certified PhD's.

These are the sort of people who are running the show today, and the sooner they're 100% removed from even the slightest position of power, the better off we'll all be. This is the United States, not Japan or Hungary or Poland.

   1651. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: March 19, 2018 at 12:59 PM (#5639785)
2), SBB himself posted the other day about brown people being incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.

Let's be fair, he didn't say that. He said that brown cultures were incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.
Not to be a stickler (hah!), but that was OG's original take, which was called out as mistaken. SBB clarified his position in #1362.
   1652. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5639786)
3. Those that think white people are of superior intelligence.
How about now?


Well, if memory serves, white people don't even do best on IQ tests, so no. As to me, I don't really think of people in such starkly racial terms. There are some smart white people out there, there are some really ####### dumb white people out there, there are some smart black people out there, there are some really ####### dumb black people out there.

Modern liberals think of everything in terms of racial identity and groupings. Actual liberals don't.
   1653. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:02 PM (#5639789)
Let's be fair, he didn't say that. He said that brown cultures were incapable of certain cultural accomplishments.


Well you know the old saying: If racists didn't exist, modern liberals would have to invent them. So it goes.
   1654. The Yankee Clapper Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5639790)
More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.

Scratch the surface of people who talk like that, and you'll usually find people like . . .

Bill Clinton & Barbara Jordan? Those differentiating between lawful immigrants and illegal alliens included just about everyone other than post-2008 (or perhaps 2012) liberals.
   1655. Srul Itza Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:04 PM (#5639791)
Or maybe Putin wants the edifice of democracy to live on after he steps down. He just thinks that he's so great that it's ok for him to be an autocrat for a while.


Out of curiosity: Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?

   1656. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5639793)
2) Treating them only as criminals is harmful (to us and them) in a variety of ways.


Deporting someone isn't "treating him only as a criminal." Indeed, it's not "treating him as a criminal" at all.
   1657. Tom T Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5639794)
You can look far and wide to find the loudest screamers about illegal immigration who also want to increase the legal variety for anyone other than a few thousand certified PhD's.


Heck, they don't even consistently allow the certified PhDs to remain in the country. We're regularly frustrated when we have excellent students finish their degrees and suddenly find themselves denied a visa for work.
   1658. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5639795)
Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?



Hard to say since he silences his opposition.
   1659. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:10 PM (#5639796)
Out of curiosity: Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?

Against whom is the real question. Putin has manipulated Russian political life to such a degree that he's cleared the board of most viable opposing candidates. So beating the guy who sell turnips on the corner isn't really an accomplishment.
   1660. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:11 PM (#5639797)
Clapper:
although I note that [Zonk] seemed careful to adhere to Canadian immigration laws when he fled the country.


Poor ol' Zonk. When he flees over the Canadian border, America is not sending its best. And whenever he comes back, Canada won't be sending its best either.



SBB:
Well you know the old saying: If racists didn't exist, modern liberals would have to invent them.


Gotta love those "old sayings" about "modern liberals."
   1661. Tom T Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:12 PM (#5639798)
Out of curiosity: Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?


No, not really. Which makes it all the more strange that he insists on the bogus election events. Though, I suppose it fits in with the idea of "keeping up appearances" with his strong-arm neighbors...probably hard to argue you are "in charge" if you only win 65-35, or even 75-25.

ETA: We have a large pro-authoritarian populace in the US, so while points above about silencing the opposition are valid, I also suspect that given the history of authoritarian rule, a decent chunk of the Russian population expects/wants that type of leader.
   1662. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5639799)
Out of curiosity: Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?


Not really...

“They told us at work to go and vote, so I did,” said Yelena, who was working at a cut-price food stall at a polling station in Moscow. “I voted for Putin, of course. Who else was there to vote for?”

Others were even blunter: “Putin has already been in power for a long time, of course, but this isn’t for people like me to decide. We are just common people. There’s no need to get all intellectual about this, you know,” said Viktor, 55, as he left a polling place on Sunday afternoon.


The Trump template...

Though, in the case of Russia, I think one probably needs to wade through a whole lot of the Russian psyche that's attuned itself towards authoritarian rule - tsar, soviets, and whatever now is. The Yeltsin experiment was a near-total failure - picking up the USSR pieces would have been a huge job regardless, but a drunk that had largely lost whatever he might have once had on his fastball wasn't a recipe for success.

Beyond that, though - the bleeding and purging of any nascent opposition certainly doesn't help foster any sort of democratic ideals. An actual opposition takes time to build and grow and Putin has been quite diligent in always snipping any sprouts before they grow much.
   1663. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5639800)
Signs the economy is headed for a crash. My town will be opening two brewpubs within the next twelve months within a quarter mile of each other. At that point we will have four breweries and a cidery operating in a town of 60,000 people.
   1664. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5639801)
Poor ol' Zonk. When he flees over the Canadian border, America is not sending its best. And whenever he comes back, Canada won't be sending its best either.


My calves are like watermelons now though!
   1665. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:15 PM (#5639802)

ETA: We have a large pro-authoritarian populace in the US, so while points above about silencing the opposition are valid, I also suspect that given the history of authoritarian rule, a decent chunk of the Russian population expects/wants that type of leader.


Perhaps but not 65% of them or higher.
   1666. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:18 PM (#5639805)
ETA: We have a large pro-authoritarian populace in the US,


As demonstrated by, e.g., the Oregon cake baker bankruptcy at the hands of the state, supported by wide swaths of modern liberals.
   1667. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:19 PM (#5639806)
Signs the economy is headed for a crash. My town will be opening two brewpubs within the next twelve months within a quarter mile of each other. At that point we will have four breweries and a cidery operating in a town of 60,000 people.


My town of 7,000 has 3 breweries and a distillery
   1668. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5639808)
Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?

Hard to say since he silences his opposition.
Yes, it would be interesting to speak to run of the mill Russians about this. Is a Muscovite better off now than they were ten years ago? Given what we've pieced together about the opposition and adherents thereof, how trustworthy is a Russian that says "yes, of course I support Putin!"?

I remember being stunned, when visiting Novosibirsk, to find that at about 1.4M people it was the third largest city in Russia. By contrast, Japan and Mexico have seven or eight cities bigger than that, with a much smaller overall population. Russia is BIG, and vast stretches are remote, and probably fifty million people scattered around the place haven't materially changed their life since Putin came on board. One could easily argue that they *should* have *improved* over that time, but what they don't know won't hurt them, right?
   1669. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5639809)
The election result in Russia can be explained by straight ticket voting from "yellow dog Putinites." Also, most of the animals have malaria.
   1670. DavidFoss Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5639810)
My town of 7,000 has 3 breweries and a distillery

Wisconsin has more bars than grocery stores. (apologies if that link has been posted several times before)
   1671. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:23 PM (#5639811)
Russians are supposed to crave authoritarian leadership. Ivan the Terrible's murderous campaign against the nobles was quite popular with the common people, I think.
   1672. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5639813)

The two competing visions - in very high level terms - seems to be:

1) They broke the law, therefore they are criminals and should be treated as such.
2) Treating them only as criminals is harmful (to us and them) in a variety of ways. Let's try to be more nuanced than that.
No. There are hardliners on both sides. Even painting with broad strokes, you don't get to ignore that.

1) They broke the law, therefore they are criminals and should be treated as such.
2) Treating them only as criminals is harmful (to us and them) in a variety of ways. Let's try to be more nuanced than that.
3) Anything other than complete amnesty is mean. We shouldn't even build walls to keep out new illegals, let alone deport any of them.
   1673. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5639814)
More accurately, it is a battle between those, such as Andy, who equate illegal aliens with lawful immigrants, and those who don't.

Scratch the surface of people who talk like that, and you'll usually find people like . . .


Clapper, whose specialty in life seems to be selective quotations and misrepresentations of his opponents' positions. In this he clearly takes after his master.
   1674. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5639817)
Scratch the surface of people who talk like that, and you'll usually find people like John Kelly, whose stated ideal quota for legal immigration would be "a number between zero and one". You can look far and wide to find the loudest screamers about illegal immigration who also want to increase the legal variety for anyone other than a few thousand certified PhD's.
Nothing in that link in any way supports your claim.

Moreover, so what? You completely confuse what to do about people already here with what to do about future immigration policy. The two have nothing to do with each other.
   1675. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5639818)
My town of 7,000 has 3 breweries and a distillery

Wisconsin has more bars than grocery stores. (apologies if that link has been posted several times before)

My own horror version of that was when I realized that many people own more shoes than books, and think it perfectly normal.
   1676. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5639819)
You've got two eyes, you've got two feet; what's the difference?
   1677. Lassus Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5639822)
Wisconsin has more bars than grocery stores. (apologies if that link has been posted several times before)

How can this not be the case in every state? If you'd asked, I would have said bars and wouldn't have even thought twice.
   1678. PreservedFish Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5639823)
   1679. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5639824)
Scratch the surface of people who talk like that, and you'll usually find people like John Kelly, whose stated ideal quota for legal immigration would be "a number between zero and one". You can look far and wide to find the loudest screamers about illegal immigration who also want to increase the legal variety for anyone other than a few thousand certified PhD's.

Nothing in that link in any way supports your claim.


Then try this one. You can't possibly be unaware of Kelly's "between zero and one" statement.

Moreover, so what? You completely confuse what to do about people already here with what to do about future immigration policy. The two have nothing to do with each other.

Oh, for Christ's sake. Of course you can theoretically separate the two, but let's just say there's a mighty strong correlation between those who support ICE's current deportations policies and those who support Kelly's thoughts on ideal quotas for legal immigration.

Oh, and I see that Nick Gillespie has evidently been Trotskied from your photo album. You're usually quite fearless about confronting your opponents, but in this case you're mum, even towards one of the leading libertarian writers over the past several decades. Why is this?
   1680. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:40 PM (#5639825)
Out of curiosity: Does anyone here doubt that Putin is, in fact, quite popular overall with Russians, and that he would have won a fair vote?
You can't really answer that. A truly fair vote requires more than merely not tampering with the ballot boxes. And more than merely not disqualifying anyone who might threaten you if they run against you. It also requires not treating them as unpersons in the media. And not killing reporters and whistleblowers who report bad things about you.

If you do those things, you may be artificially popular.


EDIT: Coke to Bivens.
   1681. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5639828)
This should make anyone's blood boil.

Heh. That's straight out of Elias Canetti's Auto-da-fe, where a somewhat mad scholar turns all of his books spine in on his shelves, in order to eliminate what he thinks to be phony class distinctions between "officers" and "privates".
   1682. DavidFoss Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5639829)
Anything other than complete amnesty is mean. We shouldn't even build walls to keep out new illegals, let alone deport any of them.

Those two sentences don't necessarily go together. Many border states have a thriving job market for undocumented labor. Granting amnesty makes these workers more expensive. Employers don't want that.

The nuance is what to do with these people's kids. That's why Trump is winning this debate (at least on this board). DACA only applies to the children of illegal immigrants -- but its too easy to change the debate to the illegal immigrants themselves. Since many voters may not know any Dreamers personally (I don't), then there might not be a big penalty in November for this. (People may be annoyed with Trump for other things, but the DACA issue might be off the radar by November).
   1683. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5639830)
Then try this one. You can't possibly be unaware of his "between zero and one" statement.
Sigh. Setting aside the thirdhand nature of that statement, it is about refugees, not immigrants.
   1684. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5639831)
For those keeping a sleepless eagle eye on the money scoreboard, but an averted gaze to the money scoreboard in PA-18, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee had its highest February fundraising haul ever. Of course, RNC/DNC/DCCC/RCCC numbers are getting less and less meaningful as players like the Koch Brothers outrank any party chairman, and an individual group like ActBlue is expected to amass over a billion dollars for a midterm.
   1685. BDC Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:53 PM (#5639832)
OK, my taxes are done. I noticed no difference between 2017 and 2016. I paid at a very slightly higher rate in '17, but I made a little more money, so that would make sense. Wasn't this supposed to be the big payoff so that I could at last buy a Costco membership or something?
   1686. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5639834)

My town of 7,000 has 3 breweries and a distillery


Well, counting distilleries we've got one in the town over and Atlanta has three.
   1687. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: March 19, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5639836)
No. There are hardliners on both sides. Even painting with broad strokes, you don't get to ignore that.


I wasn't. There are hardliners in both options I presented. The GOP hard line not only doesn't like illegal immigrants they are pretty OK limited all immigration, but even past that there are many levels of "treating them like criminals" and many levels of "being more nuanced".

So yeah, at a high level I am sticking with my generalization that the first and largest break point between the two sides is "what part of illegal don't you understand" versus "let's apply different standards to different groups, because we can't just deport everyone, there are way too many and the cost is way too high."

   1688. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5639838)

The nuance is what to do with these people's kids. That's why Trump is winning this debate (at least on this board). DACA only applies to the children of illegal immigrants -
No, it applies to illegal immigrants. Children of illegal immigrants would be citizens. But that's not really the debate at all. A large majority is okay with amnesty for DACA people. The problem is, and why no progress has been made, what to do about everyone else. Pro-immigration activists have denounced any deal that -- well, any deal at all, really. You can't use DACA people as a bargaining chip, you can't take them away from their families, yada yada. (That's the theory behind DAPA, after all.)
   1689. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5639839)

OK, my taxes are done. I noticed no difference between 2017 and 2016. I paid at a very slightly higher rate in '17, but I made a little more money, so that would make sense. Wasn't this supposed to be the big payoff so that I could at last buy a Costco membership or something?
Can someone explain to BDC that taxes are paid on the previous year's earnings? You will see the big payoff in your 2018 earnings. For which you will file tax returns in or around April 2019.
   1690. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5639840)
Then try this one. You can't possibly be unaware of his "between zero and one" statement.

Sigh. Setting aside the thirdhand nature of that statement,


So do you think the Times just made up the quote? Here's the original story that reported it:
WASHINGTON — This past summer, the Trump administration debated lowering the annual cap on refugees admitted to the United States. Should it stay at 110,000, be cut to 50,000 or fall somewhere in between? John F. Kelly offered his opinion. If it were up to him, he said, the number would be between zero and one.

Mr. Kelly’s comment made its way around the White House, according to an administration official, and reinforced what is only now becoming clear to many on the outside. While some officials had predicted Mr. Kelly would be a calming chief of staff for an impulsive president, recent days have made clear that he is more aligned with President Trump than anticipated.

it is about refugees, not immigrants.

My bad on the specifics, but in Kelly's and nearly all other cases it's a distinction without a difference. The ultra-hardliners on immigration tend almost always to be the same ones who are hardliners on the refugee question, using the same sort of Scare The Rubes rhetoric about terrorists or job stealers to mask their nativist motivations.

And yes, you'll find more nuanced takes to this among some of the rank and file, but not among our current policy leaders in the White House and Congress. They're the darlings of every racist and nativist group in the country, and for very obvious reasons.
   1691. McCoy Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5639841)
Uber had its first fatality while testing their self driving car and it was the second fatality overall. This tine a self driving car killed a pedestrian crossing the road while not in the crosswalk.
   1692. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5639843)
The nuance is what to do with these people's kids. That's why Trump is winning this debate (at least on this board). DACA only applies to the children of illegal immigrants -


No, it applies to illegal immigrants. Children of illegal immigrants would be citizens. But that's not really the debate at all. A large majority is okay with amnesty for DACA people.

And a clear majority is also in favor of providing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants who've established roots in this country. Here, just look at a recent Fox News poll and scroll down to the third chart. Too bad that the Republican leaders don't answer to them, but only to their angry base.
   1693. -- Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5639845)
it is about refugees, not immigrants.

My bad on the specifics, but in Kelly's and nearly all other cases it's a distinction without a difference.


LOL. Confusing refugees and regular immigrants. Par for the ol' course, so to speak.
   1694. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5639846)

So do you think the Times just made up the quote?
Reading still fundamental. The Times didn't provide a quote. (Perhaps this explains that whole scare quote fetish you have; you really don't understand what the punctuation mark is for.) The Times reported what other people said that Kelly said.
   1695. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5639847)

This tine a self driving car killed a pedestrian crossing the road while not in the crosswalk.
That's not a fatality; that's just natural selection.
   1696. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5639848)
So do you think the Times just made up the quote?

Reading still fundamental. The Times didn't provide a quote. (Perhaps this explains that whole scare quote fetish you have; you really don't understand what the punctuation mark is for.) The Times reported what other people said that Kelly said.


Skip past the cross-examination for once in your life and just tell us whether you think Kelly voiced that sentiment or not. That's the bottom line.
   1697. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5639849)
This tine a self driving car killed a pedestrian crossing the road while not in the crosswalk.


That's not a fatality; that's just natural selection.

It'll be even better natural selection if the self-driving car carrying a texting passenger crashes into a brick wall. That'd teach him to keep his knee on the wheel.
   1698. BDC Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5639850)
Can someone explain to BDC that taxes are paid on the previous year's earnings? You will see the big payoff in your 2018 earnings. For which you will file tax returns in or around April 2019

I know how taxes work, numbnuts. But the stories about the tax bill have all promoted the impression that the rate changes were retroactive, hence all the schoolteachers getting $1.50 extra a week and companies giving massive bonuses and such. Guess not.

I am also seeing virtually no change in my withholding rate so far this year, though that may still be in the process of being worked out. Something tells me that the rhetoric of the tax cut is exceeding the reality (at least for actual near-median-income taxpayers like me).
   1699. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5639856)

Skip past the cross-examination
That's not cross-examination; that's a motion in limine to exclude hearsay evidence.
   1700. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: March 19, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5639859)

But the stories about the tax bill have all promoted the impression that the rate changes were retroactive, hence all the schoolteachers getting $1.50 extra a week and companies giving massive bonuses and such.
The rate changes take effect at the beginning of 2018, so all the schoolteachers will be getting $1.50 extra per week all year long.
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