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Monday, October 16, 2017

OTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true

As is sometimes the case with Trump’s tweet’s, his claims don’t hold up. We identified 14 games that Trump has attended since 1988, including two preseason games and the game above. Of those 14 games, the Yankees won eight and lost six — 57 percent of the time during seasons when the Yankees won 60 percent of their games overall.

In other words — Trump might be a jinx.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 07:49 AM | 1967 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, playoffs, politics, yankees

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   1. Traderdave Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:04 AM (#5554801)
First!
   2. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:07 AM (#5554804)
Second, but I win in the Electoral College.
   3. Greg K Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:11 AM (#5554807)
There was a stretch of time where I swear Russ Adams hit a home run every time I went to a Jays game. If he had starting buying me tickets he might still be in the majors.
   4. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:12 AM (#5554808)
The GIF in the article of Bill O'Reilly somewhat snidely "participating" in the wave is almost enough to make me not want to see him castrated and fed his own nuts. Almost.
   5. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:19 AM (#5554811)
The Yankees actually did win 10 or 11 in a row when I was at the Stadium in 1987-88, but either it was a fluke or I didn't go often enough, because those were lean years for them overall.
   6. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:20 AM (#5554812)
So, the Weinstein Company's (whatever it's officially called) produced and promoted Edison/Westinghouse rivalry biopic The Current War has been dropped from release.

Not sure if I can agree that's a good thing, but maybe someone can offer something.
   7. Jose is an Absurd Doubles Machine Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5554817)
The Yankees actually did win 10 or 11 in a row when I was at the Stadium in 1987-88, but either it was a fluke or I didn't go often enough,


You went too often.
   8. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:29 AM (#5554819)
The Yankees actually did win 10 or 11 in a row when I was at the Stadium in 1987-88

COME ON no one's going to do a tracker on this? I'm at work.
   9. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:34 AM (#5554821)
Uh, Lassus, unless we get BDC's 30-year old credit card bills, I don't see how you think we can do a tracker on what happened in games he attended back then.
   10. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:37 AM (#5554823)
So, the Weinstein Company's (whatever it's officially called) produced and promoted Edison/Westinghouse rivalry biopic The Current War has been dropped from release.


That's just because someone realized a Bob's Burgers episode of years past already achieved entertainment perfection around the story.

   11. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:42 AM (#5554824)
unless we get BDC's 30-year old credit card bills

Plus I paid $3 cash at the walk-up bleacher window. I'm from the Andy school of "back-in-the-day we practically got in for free."
   12. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 09:46 AM (#5554826)
Uh, Lassus, unless we get BDC's 30-year old credit card bills, I don't see how you think we can do a tracker on what happened in games he attended back then.

I suppose I misread the sentence. It sounded as if THEY won ten or eleven in a row regardless of whether he was at the stadium, or that he went to ten or eleven games in a row. (And 87/88 meaning it could have been either year, wasn't sure.)

Ah well.
   13. bunyon Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:01 AM (#5554835)
Wait. Hold on. Is the suggestion in the quoted bit that Mr. Trump said something untrue? I'm not sure that is possible and think, just to be safe, that this entire site be shut down for the suggestion.
   14. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:10 AM (#5554837)
1978 on the old thread


Fonda didn't say whether the Arquette incident was rape, assault, harassment, exposure, or what. And that she first heard about it one year ago.


TGF, Clapper, SBB, etc.: "But she's Hanoi Jane, so she's guilty as sin!"

   15. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:25 AM (#5554842)
Longer form version of Will's comment on Pencie the Poodle....

“Trump thinks Pence is great,” Bannon told me. But, according to a longtime associate, Trump also likes to “let Pence know who’s boss.” A staff member from Trump’s campaign recalls him mocking Pence’s religiosity. He said that, when people met with Trump after stopping by Pence’s office, Trump would ask them, “Did Mike make you pray?” Two sources also recalled Trump needling Pence about his views on abortion and homosexuality. During a meeting with a legal scholar, Trump belittled Pence’s determination to overturn Roe v. Wade. The legal scholar had said that, if the Supreme Court did so, many states would likely legalize abortion on their own. “You see?” Trump asked Pence. “You’ve wasted all this time and energy on it, and it’s not going to end abortion anyway.” When the conversation turned to gay rights, Trump motioned toward Pence and joked, “Don’t ask that guy—he wants to hang them all!”
   16. PepTech Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:31 AM (#5554846)
Car-sale update!

Review: After claiming to be a mechanic and negotiating down a few hundred bucks, they left with the car. Late that evening, a VM that said there was an issue. Nothing further Thursday. I texted again Friday, he texted back that the car had broken down and needed to be towed. Friday night I took their call, he said the tow job cost a "deuce" and the water pump and head gasket were out, and what was I going to do. I said, I don't think I had to do anything, but I would talk it over with my wife and get back to him.

Saturday he left a VM saying he was coming to my house to discuss it, and if I didn't want him to do that I should call him back immediately. I texted and said he should not go to my home and I wasn't sure what there was to discuss. He then left a long text saying he had talked to the sheriff, and also "someone in my area", and that he was going to get his money back "one way or the other". He was trying to be a nice guy but was going to "do what he has to do".

So I called the cops, and they said they'd deal with the guy. My wife and I *had* talked about it, and agreed that if we could verify the tow job we'd help with that, but any mechanical problems with the car would be on him. But after he dialed it up to 11, forget it.
   17. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:32 AM (#5554848)
2020 on the old thread


a couple of months ago, my Sonata's engine fails while I'm doing 60 mph on a highway with traffic lights (hey, it's Jersey).


You must have been on 46...
   18. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:34 AM (#5554850)
So I called the cops, and they said they'd deal with the guy. My wife and I *had* talked about it, and agreed that if we could verify the tow job we'd help with that, but any mechanical problems with the car would be on him. But after he dialed it up to 11, forget it.


Ugh. Best of luck man, sounds like you are being a good guy - don't let the creep's take advantage.
   19. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:51 AM (#5554857)
"Trying to be a nice guy" with absolutist demands backed up with vague threats?

Sounds like someone else often discussed in OTP threads.

In any case, yeah... Offering a few hundred bucks up is as far as I'd have gone - and if he's now in full-on ####### mode, he just lost out on that, too.
   20. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:53 AM (#5554858)
And you guys think car salesmen have it easy.
   21. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:54 AM (#5554860)
Newsflash: Keith Olbermann is a humorless prick. And his Twitterbots are worse.
   22. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:58 AM (#5554862)
Man, shows what I get for wanting to be a nice person. Sorry, PT.
   23. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:58 AM (#5554863)
But, according to a longtime associate, Trump also likes to “let Pence know who’s boss.”
As a constitutional matter, the president is not actually the vice president's boss. (As a practical matter it's different, of course.)
   24. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 10:59 AM (#5554864)
As a constitutional matter, the president is not actually the vice president's boss.


You expect Trump to know that?
   25. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:01 AM (#5554866)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) told CBS News that if the Republican party cannot enact tax reform, just one item on the congressional agenda, “we’re dead.”

Said Graham: “If we don’t cut taxes and we don’t eventually repeal and replace Obamacare, then we’re going to lose across the board in the House in 2018. And all of my colleagues running in primaries in 2018 will probably get beat.”


Link

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) warned that Republicans could face a “Watergate-level blowout” in the midterm elections if they don’t make major legislative strides on taxes and health care, the Washington Post reports.

Said Cruz: “If tax reform crashes and burns, if on Obamacare, nothing happens, we could face a bloodbath.”


Link

House: Ratings Changes in 12 Districts as Democrats Gain Momentum

President Trump and GOP control of Congress have sparked a 2018 Democratic candidate bonanza. Don't call it "recruitment:" for the most part, these aspirants decided to take the plunge on their own. Many are political newcomers; others have waited years for the right moment to run. And in light of national polling, it was only a matter of time before more GOP-held House seats joined the ranks of the vulnerable.


Trump’s missteps are giving Democrats a better shot at winning back the House

While President Donald Trump takes a baseball bat to Obamacare and the Iran nuclear deal, odds are rising that he could break the Republican majority in Congress, too.

Midterm elections remain just more than a year away. But a leading nonpartisan analyst now sees a slightly better than even chance that Democrats win back the House in November 2018, which would halt Trump's current legislative agenda and even jeopardize his ability to complete his term.

"Democrats are on the cusp of where they need to be to take the House back," said the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman, who reviews House races district by district.
   26. PepTech Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:14 AM (#5554875)
which would halt Trump's current legislative agenda
Halt what, again? Doesn't something have to be moving to be halted?
   27. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:14 AM (#5554876)
Newsflash: Keith Olbermann is a humorless prick. And his Twitterbots are worse.


Funny article. But of course Clayton Kershaw is almost certainly not going to be on that list by the time his career is over. But it's a hell of an accomplishment just getting there even temporarily. The only post deadball guy I can find who would have made it was Tom Seaver, who would have dropped off after his age 29 season.
   28. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5554877)
So, the Weinstein Company's (whatever it's officially called) produced and promoted Edison/Westinghouse rivalry biopic The Current War has been dropped from release.

Not sure if I can agree that's a good thing, but maybe someone can offer something.


I went down a rabbit hole on youtube on Friday night and watched a bunch of Weinstein interviews. On the morning shows, etc.

The way he is treated by the hosts, the way they over-inflate the importance of movies and those who fund and produce and direct and star in them, is rather nausea-inducing.
   29. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:16 AM (#5554878)
Midterm elections remain just more than a year away. But a leading nonpartisan analyst now sees a slightly better than even chance that Democrats win back the House in November 2018, which would halt Trump's current legislative agenda and even jeopardize his ability to complete his term.


Republicans are now running on the message that if the Democrats take back the House, Trump will be impeached.
   30. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:19 AM (#5554879)
Republicans are now running on the message that if the Democrats take back the House, Trump will be impeached.


The Democrats should send the GOP some checks to help get that message out.
   31. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:23 AM (#5554882)
If we don’t cut taxes and we don’t eventually repeal and replace Obamacare, then we’re going to lose across the board in the House in 2018. And all of my colleagues running in primaries in 2018 will probably get beat

a “Watergate-level blowout” … If tax reform crashes and burns, if on Obamacare, nothing happens, we could face a bloodbath


Methinks the hype is just that, hype.

There is just no structural way that the Republicans lose many House seats in 2018. People aren't going to swing left because the right didn't do enough. Graham has a point that far-right challengers could unseat some GOP primary incumbents, but I think the basic principle is that you could run an unfrozen caveman (R) in most current GOP districts and win no matter what. Perhaps I have just been in Texas too long.
   32. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:28 AM (#5554887)
2077 on the old thread


Reporting a crime to the police of which you have no evidence,


I do have evidence, you weirdo -- the person told me they were raped.


That's not evidence. That's hearsay. You weirdo.
   33. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:29 AM (#5554890)
There is just no structural way that the Republicans lose many House seats in 2018. People aren't going to swing left because the right didn't do enough. Graham has a point that far-right challengers could unseat some GOP primary incumbents, but I think the basic principle is that you could run an unfrozen caveman (R) in most current GOP districts and win no matter what. Perhaps I have just been in Texas too long.


Nope. You're correct. The only thing the nutjob right will vote out a sitting nutjob righter for is a more categorically insane nutball righter.
   34. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5554895)
Car-sale update!

Review: After claiming to be a mechanic and negotiating down a few hundred bucks, they left with the car. Late that evening, a VM that said there was an issue. Nothing further Thursday. I texted again Friday, he texted back that the car had broken down and needed to be towed. Friday night I took their call, he said the tow job cost a "deuce" and the water pump and head gasket were out, and what was I going to do. I said, I don't think I had to do anything, but I would talk it over with my wife and get back to him.

Saturday he left a VM saying he was coming to my house to discuss it, and if I didn't want him to do that I should call him back immediately. I texted and said he should not go to my home and I wasn't sure what there was to discuss. He then left a long text saying he had talked to the sheriff, and also "someone in my area", and that he was going to get his money back "one way or the other". He was trying to be a nice guy but was going to "do what he has to do".

So I called the cops, and they said they'd deal with the guy. My wife and I *had* talked about it, and agreed that if we could verify the tow job we'd help with that, but any mechanical problems with the car would be on him. But after he dialed it up to 11, forget it.


You really do have to ask yourself if this is worth it. It sounds like, while the $1300 is nice to have, you and your wife could have gotten by without it.

I wonder if just driving the car to a junkyard and getting $300 for it would have been better.

Or if you're purchasing a new car... I remember when I was buying a new Camry because my old one wasn't cutting it anymore the dealership took my old Camry off my hands and as compensation gave me something off the sale price of the new Camry.

What I wouldn't have done is try my hand at the pool of buyers you did.

   35. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:33 AM (#5554896)
The only post deadball guy I can find who would have made it was Tom Seaver, who would have dropped off after his age 29 season.
Unless I'm doing it wrong, or misreading your comment, even that isn't true.

Seaver, thru 28: 511 ER, 1931 1/3 IP - 2.3813 ERA
Eddie Cicotte (current #25, #23 before Rivera and Kershaw): 853 ER, 3226 IP - 2.3797 ERA
George McQuillan (current #26): 417 ER, 1576 1/3 IP - 2.3808 ERA

Seaver still would've only been #25, just off the page.
   36. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:34 AM (#5554898)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) warned that Republicans could face a “Watergate-level blowout” in the midterm elections if they don’t make major legislative strides on taxes and health care, the Washington Post reports.

Said Cruz: “If tax reform crashes and burns, if on Obamacare, nothing happens, we could face a bloodbath.”


I think this may be the first time I've ever been on board with one of Ted Cruz's plans.
   37. Satan Says Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:37 AM (#5554903)
Actress Angie Everhart recounted an extremely disturbing story of Harvey Weinstein pleasuring himself in front of her while staying on the same boat at the Cannes Film Festival in France. Detailing the encounter to TMZ Live, Everhart said she had just arrived and was sleeping in her bed. "I wake up and Harvey is standing above my bed. That alone is frightening." She continued, "All of the sudden he takes his pants down and starts doing his stuff. He's blocking the door. I can't get out and he, I don't know how to say this on the radio, but he finishes on the carpet of the floor." Everhart said Weinstein told her not to tell anyone but she ignored his request - telling other actors and producers. "Nobody wanted to do anything about it because everyone was terrified of Harvey."

Not to get too personal, but what's the difference between Weinstein and some guy tuning into Skinamax after midnight?
   38. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:37 AM (#5554904)
Unless I'm doing it wrong, or misreading your comment, even that isn't true.

Seaver, thru 28: 511 ER, 1931 1/3 IP - 2.3813 ERA
Eddie Cicotte (current #25, #23 before Rivera and Kershaw): 853 ER, 3226 IP - 2.3797 ERA
George McQuillan (current #26): 417 ER, 1576 1/3 IP - 2.3808 ERA

Seaver still would've only been #25, just off the page.


You're right. I was just going by the rounded number.

edit: But he would have been in the top 24 at various poins in the 1973 season. After his Aug 10 start, he got his career ERA to 2.37, and it stayed at or below that mark through his Sep 26 start. He then gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his last start.
   39. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:38 AM (#5554906)
Also: The buyer can't threaten or harass you criminally but he has the power to file a claim against you, frivolous as it may be. So the question is how much more time and hassle you want to go through here in order to get to the finish line of this.

   40. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:41 AM (#5554907)
Not to get too personal, but what's the difference between Weinstein and some guy tuning into Skinamax after midnight?


Probably the fact that when Everhart is on TV, she's not actually IN the room.
   41. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:45 AM (#5554910)
Not to get too personal, but what's the difference between Weinstein and some guy tuning into Skinamax after midnight?


That can't be a serious question.
   42. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:46 AM (#5554911)
Seaver, thru 28: 511 ER, 1931 1/3 IP - 2.3813 ERA
Eddie Cicotte (current #25, #23 before Rivera and Kershaw): 853 ER, 3226 IP - 2.3797 ERA
George McQuillan (current #26): 417 ER, 1576 1/3 IP - 2.3808 ERA

Seaver still would've only been #25, just off the page.


But Seaver knew how to pitch to the score, so he would have whipped off a shutout to get him on the page.
   43. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:47 AM (#5554912)
Also, after his age 26 season, Seaver had a 2.34 ERA in over 1300 IP.
   44. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:48 AM (#5554913)
This isn't my area of the law and I don't know what state you're in or what papers you signed, so this ain't legal advice. But as practical advice if I'm you I tell him I'll undo the sale and give him his money back plus the tow money if he can produce the tow receipt and tell me where the car is (i.e., I'd take the car back). This would (a) test whether he's lying about the car breaking down and needing to be towed and what's wrong with it, and (b) -- if he *is* lying -- test whether he actually wants to walk away from the deal. My sense is that if he was willing to spend the $1300 then he probably likes the deal he got and he wouldn't walk away and is lying now. But who knows. (I think the chances that the car actually broke down on his way home are too low such that his story doesn't pass the smell test, so I'd be extremely skeptical of his story, while knowing I could be wrong.)

If he's telling the truth then while as a legal matter I could probably saddle him with the fallout of the car breaking down, as a matter of fairness I wouldn't mind undoing the deal for him -- if literally the car broke down as he was driving it home. So in that case I'd reset the deal. Then I'd find the cheapest way to get the car to a junkyard, maybe even for a small sum in return if I could get it. If not I'd pay for it to be towed to the junkyard and be done with it.

The alternative is to dig your heels in and he'll probably keep harassing you and finally sue you in small claims court and while you may well win the suit it would be a hassle, probably cost time off from work, and still leave you with an angry and unstable buyer on your hands.
   45. Shredder Posted: October 16, 2017 at 11:55 AM (#5554919)
There is just no structural way that the Republicans lose many House seats in 2018. People aren't going to swing left because the right didn't do enough. Graham has a point that far-right challengers could unseat some GOP primary incumbents, but I think the basic principle is that you could run an unfrozen caveman (R) in most current GOP districts and win no matter what. Perhaps I have just been in Texas too long.
Is that really the case, though? I haven't researched this on a district by district basis, but much of the GOP advantage is based on gerrymandering. In theory, the whole principle of gerrymandering is to pack a ton of your opposition into a few districts, while creating a lot of districts that you win by a smaller margin. In a wave type of election, that could be a problem if you have a lot of districts with narrow advantages. Certainly there are a number of very safe red districts as well, but they way you get 65% of the seats with 50% of the vote isn't by creating a lot of safe districts for yourself.
   46. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:00 PM (#5554924)
That can't be a serious question.


Never underestimate the depths to which you should underestimate Perros.
   47. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:02 PM (#5554926)
The only thing the nutjob right will vote out a sitting nutjob righter for is a more categorically insane nutball righter.


So the current VIX, stock market, and high business/consumer/investor confidence metrics are fully consistent with an incompetent and warmongering fascist government at the helm of the largest economy on the planet?

OK, then. A bit counter-intuitive, to be sure -- but the world requires all types.
   48. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:04 PM (#5554928)
No Dem should be thinking they - or their preferred representatives - are going to win anything. Therein lies to the path to laziness and defeat.
   49. PepTech Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:04 PM (#5554929)
Article about the 25th amendment that is not hysterical. This is a nice summary of my own concerns:
As if all of this weren't dangerous enough, there is the unsettling behavior that the nation has seen right before its own eyes. The manner in which President Trump has handled the escalating crisis with North Korea, including the kind of name-calling tweets one might expect to find on a child's smartphone, his reactionary comments about the white supremacists in Charlottesville, his making light of police brutality, the relentless attacks and direct threats on the news media, and the heartless comments that he made about Puerto Ricans as they are still recovering from a massive natural disaster, don't do much to reassure us that this is a president fully in control.

Even if this is some kind of well-orchestrated public relations strategy meant to "distract" or "appeal to the base," it doesn't make things much better. The notion that a president would rationally choose this path suggests a leader who cannot be fully trusted to use the power of the presidency within reasonable bounds.
And I also fully and completely endorse this passage:
Regardless of how much some voters might hate President Trump and despise everything that he stands for, removing a president from power is an action that should be taken only under the most urgent of circumstances and where there is no other alternative.

We must as a nation to do everything possible to respect the democratic will as it is expressed on election day. As this conversation continues, politicians and citizens must remember this at each step. If the reality is simply that we just have a weak and untalented president, and one who pushes for ideas that many voters reject, then this conversation should come to an abrupt end and voters can make a decision about what to do in the next elections.
If it were "just" that he was weak and untalented, then sure, sit back and point and laugh at the Oompa-Loompa in Chief. What actually constitutes "harm" to the Republic that passes an objective test? Depending on how you look at it, I would throw out there that the police brutality comments and (only somewhat veiled) threats to the free press are the most troubling, since they represent clear disregard for basic constitutional precepts. Bombing NK is a judgment call that the President needs to make with the unique information at his disposal, and the public can agree with it or not; a POTUS who is actively subverting the Bill of Rights is actionable. I would hope.

"Lesser" offenses like subverting the Paris Accords and an EPA that rapes the land - policies that could take decades to undo - in and of itself doesn't meet any standard of impeachment or removal. Or is there some point where even the base might think "what have we done"?
   50. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:06 PM (#5554930)
47

So the current VIX, stock market, and high business/consumer/investor confidence metrics are fully consistent with an incompetent and warmongering fascist government at the helm of the largest economy on the planet?



Hey, Mussolini had the trains running on time. AmIrite?
   51. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:07 PM (#5554931)
Absent actual incapacity, the 25th Amendment idea is absurd. The people making the argument look like abject idiots.

In the real world of substance, the government is managing the nation's affairs perfectly fine. The data are impeccably clear on the matter. Perpetually lying about what the chief executive said about 350 losers marching in Charlottesville changes that fundamental fact not one iota.

   52. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:08 PM (#5554932)
Hey, Mussolini had the trains running on time. AmIrite?


Actually, no.
   53. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:11 PM (#5554935)
Mussolini didn't have the trains running on time?
   54. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:13 PM (#5554937)
The Independent of London, 1994:

But did Mussolini really do it? Did Il Duce, in his 20 years of absolute power, really manage to make the railway service meet its timetable? The answer is no.

Like almost all the supposed achievements of Fascism, the timely trains are a myth, nurtured and propagated by a leader with a journalist's flair for symbolism, verbal trickery and illusion.

In 1936 the American journalist George Seldes complained that when his fellow-countrymen returned home from holidays in Italy they seemed to cry in unison: 'Great is the Duce; the trains now run on time]' And no matter how often they were told about Fascist oppression, injustice and cruelty, they always said the same thing: 'But the trains run on time.'

'It is true,' wrote Seldes, 'that the majority of big expresses, those carrying eye-witnessing tourists, are usually put through to time, but on the smaller lines rail and road-bed conditions frequently cause delays.'

And there is no shortage of witnesses to testify that even the tourist trains were often late. A Belgian foreign minister wrote: 'The time is no more when Italian trains run to time. We always were kept waiting for more than a quarter of an hour at the level-crossings because the trains were never there at the times they should have been passing.' The British journalist Elizabeth Wiskemann, likewise, dismissed 'the myth about the punctual trains'. 'I travelled in a number that were late,' she wrote.

The notion that the trains were running on time was none the less vigorously put about by the Fascist propaganda machine.
   55. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:14 PM (#5554939)
I haven't researched this on a district by district basis, but much of the GOP advantage is based on gerrymandering.

Some of it, to be sure, is gerrymandering, but a lot is just self selection by Democrats. Democrats tend to be more urban, so you have huge blocks of voters in one district (see New York, or Philly) It would be gerrymandering to split them up.
   56. There are no words... (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:15 PM (#5554942)
54

OK, I only have myself to blame.

As it should be obvious, I didn't post comment #50 in order to open debate on the merits of the Italian rail system's punctuality in 1936.

#53, however... m'own damn fault...
   57. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:19 PM (#5554947)
There is just no structural way that the Republicans lose many House seats in 2018. People aren't going to swing left because the right didn't do enough. Graham has a point that far-right challengers could unseat some GOP primary incumbents, but I think the basic principle is that you could run an unfrozen caveman (R) in most current GOP districts and win no matter what. Perhaps I have just been in Texas too long.


Democrats need to pick up 24 seast to get a majority. Assuming they hold every one of their seats, the following R held seats had a 2016 margin of less than 10% of vote:

Cal 49 - 0.6
Cal 10 - 3.4
Cal 25 - 7.2
Col 6 - 8.3
Fl 27 - 9.8
IA 1 - 7.6
ME 2 - 9.6
MN 2 - 1.8
NE 2 - 1.2
NY 19 - 8.2
NY 22 - 5.4
PA 8 - 8.8
TX 23 - 1.3
VA 10 - 5.8


That's only 14, but then we have seen what happened in the 3 special elections since then in beet red districts.

   58. PepTech Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:19 PM (#5554948)
If Trump were to direct that Lorne Michaels, Alec Baldwin, and/or Stephen Colbert be arrested for their continued criticism, would that be unhinged enough for you? What if he were to direct FEMA to withdraw from Puerto Rico immediately?

Sure, it's absurd. It is really *that* much more absurd than "bang suspects heads against the car door"?

You say yourself, "absent actual incapacity". Does that mean "in a coma", or is there any behavior that would trigger this clause, in your mind?
   59. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:21 PM (#5554949)
So the current VIX, stock market, and high business/consumer/investor confidence metrics are fully consistent with an incompetent and warmongering fascist government at the helm of the largest economy on the planet?

OK, then. A bit counter-intuitive, to be sure -- but the world requires all types.


History says that markets have always reacted favorably to an incompetent, warmongering fascist government.... at least for a while.
   60. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:21 PM (#5554950)
Regardless of how much some voters might hate President Trump and despise everything that he stands for, removing a president from power is an action that should be taken only under the most urgent of circumstances and where there is no other alternative.


Concern troll is concerned. Remove the ############ before he blows up the ####### world. Jesus. This isn't hard.
   61. Traderdave Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:22 PM (#5554951)
Has ANYthing in Italy ever been on time?

German trains still run on time, to the second. fwiw.
   62. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:22 PM (#5554952)
Axios also one of several outlets reporting on concerns about the NAFTA negotiations. Anyone following that closely? It seems like it could be a big deal and despite getting some press has not been a big topic of conversation here or elsewhere.
From previous thread- this is a really scary, bizarre, self-inflicted risk; I've linked to multiple articles about this in the last month or so. Trump's negotiation team seems to have no clue and the things he personally has said indicate that he appears to view negotiations as zero sum, preferring to engage one on one, and that will really limit how much value he can create. The teams from Canada and Mexico must be licking their chops, fully expecting to come out of this negotiation with some token concessions and some yuuge advantages.

Trump has threatened to walk away, but he really can't do that; the rural people who put him in office will be killed if NAFTA changes very much. Not that he cares about them, but he needs their support.

Now, if he could get the UK to join NAFTA and lead a four-party negotiation that ignores petty rhetoric and attempts to maximize real "winning", that might be interesting. But that would require skill and thinking beyond the next news cycle and I haven't seen anything that makes me think he can pull that off so far.
   63. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:22 PM (#5554953)
Some of it, to be sure, is gerrymandering, but a lot is just self selection by Democrats.


The self selection is non-partisan.
   64. Satan Says Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:26 PM (#5554956)
That can't be a serious question.

Dead serious.

Excluding Everhart's presence vs facsimile, I'm asking what's the difference between the whackjobs? I've always been skeptical of Puritan condemnation of the wealthy and powerful like Weinstein or Bill Clinton who have the opportunity to gratify their sexual needs with the real thing, versus the puritan slobs who shell out millions and millions to fantasize about what they can't actually have.

Beyond addressing the gross economic disparities promoted by US society which necessarily result in the exploitation of the have-nots by the haves in multiple ways, what collective need calls for the sexual exploitation of young women in our society? How would you go about stopping something that's been going on since the dawn of civilization?

Tarring and feathering Harvey Weinstein is mostly just another form of mass masturbation.
   65. Swoboda is freedom Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:28 PM (#5554957)
Some of it, to be sure, is gerrymandering, but a lot is just self selection by Democrats.


The self selection is non-partisan.


That is true. Though we don't know how much is self sorting, and how much is the area influences voters.

But the Democrats tend to be more clustered in more concentrated areas.

   66. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:33 PM (#5554960)
Article about the 25th amendment that is not hysterical. This is a nice summary of my own concerns:


That's silly.

Look - if the majority of a cabinet the President himself picked thinks he's so unfit/incapacitated/dangerous as to take the extraordinary move as to remove him, then "Oh noes! The Democracy!" concerns ought to rank at least behind congressional failure to exercise ITS prerogative and concerns that (at least enough appropriately geographically dispersed) the voting public made such an awful choice to begin with.

It's not like Trump has suddenly been befallen with some rapidly developing mania or mental incompetence. He's the same guy he's always been and the same guy who put himself on full display for the voting public to see and hear.

The idea that some properly allocated minority gets to have their whackjob wreck the world because is loony toons. All the various wholly legal mechanisms exist for a reason. They're being discussed for a reason.

It's extraordinary that ANY sitting Senator, regardless of party, regardless of what you think of the Wise Old Men in the Senate would say that the WH has become adult day care -- and give voice to the utterly jaw-dropping idea that "adults" have to babysit the President to keep him from doing the REALLY stupid. It's extraordinary that one of the two or three most important cabinet secretaries calls the President a moron - and pointedly refuses to back down from the statement.

Trumpkins don't get to have their cake and eat it, too. If you sail so deep into uncharted waters - you ought to expect that well gee whiz -- the waters are uncharted!
   67. PepTech Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:33 PM (#5554961)
That can't be a serious question.

Dead serious.

Excluding Everhart's presence vs facsimile, I'm asking what's the difference between the whackjobs?
The difference is the restraint, either overtly physical or by physical intimidation, of another human being. That's a crime.

Consuming porn is not, whether or not you think the two are morally equivalent is beside the point.
   68. Lassus Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:34 PM (#5554963)
Please stop answering that brainless dipshit.
   69. bunyon Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:36 PM (#5554964)
Some of it, to be sure, is gerrymandering, but a lot is just self selection by Democrats.


The self selection is non-partisan.


Right, but there are way more rural districts than urban. So the Ds have grown more urban which gives them a mythical "majority" in total votes but that loses a real majority in the House and sets up a disadvantage in the electoral college. You can gripe all you want that it shouldn't be set up that way but you're a long, long, long way from having the votes to amend the constitution. So it would behoove the Ds to make some inroads in rural areas. They have natural policy positions that are helpful there but they don't seem to like talking about it.

OTOH, the Rs have no real need to make any urban improvements so long as the Ds don't head out to the hills.
   70. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:41 PM (#5554968)
From previous thread- this is a really scary, bizarre, self-inflicted risk; I've linked to multiple articles about this in the last month or so. Trump's negotiation team seems to have no clue and the things he personally has said indicate that he appears to view negotiations as zero sum, preferring to engage one on one, and that will really limit how much value he can create. The teams from Canada and Mexico must be licking their chops, fully expecting to come out of this negotiation with some token concessions and some yuuge advantages.

Trump has threatened to walk away, but he really can't do that; the rural people who put him in office will be killed if NAFTA changes very much. Not that he cares about them, but he needs their support.

Now, if he could get the UK to join NAFTA and lead a four-party negotiation that ignores petty rhetoric and attempts to maximize real "winning", that might be interesting. But that would require skill and thinking beyond the next news cycle and I haven't seen anything that makes me think he can pull that off so far.


He's basically trying to win the same concessions that the US got from Mexico/Canada in the TPP negotiations, but without the leverage of a broader trade pact.

Good luck with that.

   71. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:44 PM (#5554969)
The Democrats will never get the rural districts, way too religious to accept the party of abortion and gay rights no matter what their economic policies. Nor do they need to. It's suburbia where the battle should be fought.
   72. Satan Says Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:45 PM (#5554970)
Consuming porn is not,

Our consumer society produces Harvey Weinstein, Hollywood moguls, and gross economic disparity that lets them go about their business as long as they produce.

Completely believable that brother Bob and other corporate honchos delivered his head on a platter to NYT once he outlived his usefulness.

The show must go on.
   73. bunyon Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:45 PM (#5554971)
Tying the two ideas together, if he blows up NAFTA, the GOP would be at risk of losing big in rural districts. He'd basically ensure that neither he nor Pence could win in 2020 and, if the Ds would step in (it isn't clear to me that they would), they could lose both the House and Senate. NAFTA really helps rural districts and most of them know it. I generally agree with the idea that rural Trump voters aren't going to vote D in 2018 but will push the GOP nominees further right. But this is something that could wreck that calculation and open the field up.
   74. bunyon Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:47 PM (#5554973)
The Democrats will never get the rural districts, way too religious to accept the party of abortion and gay rights no matter what their economic policies. Nor do they need to. It's suburbia where the battle should be fought.

Sure, the more suburban the better for Ds. But there are rural districts that, based on economics, could be won. They'll never win a majority of rural districts but it need not be the landslide it currently is.
   75. Satan Says Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:53 PM (#5554977)
   76. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5554979)
Remove the ############ before he blows up the ####### world. Jesus. This isn't hard.


So let's see. On the one hand, we have the collected wisdom and daily voting of the world's money managers and on the other we have ... the crazed rantings of a bearded middle-aged suburban Atlantan with a thing for Bavarian creme-filleds.

Doesn't seem like too tough a choice, but again the world needs all types.
   77. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5554981)
History says that markets have always reacted favorably to an incompetent, warmongering fascist government.... at least for a while.


History says no such thing -- and it's not just the stock market, it's the real economy.
   78. Shredder Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:59 PM (#5554982)
Now, if he could get the UK to join NAFTA and lead a four-party negotiation that ignores petty rhetoric and attempts to maximize real "winning", that might be interesting. But that would require skill and thinking beyond the next news cycle and I haven't seen anything that makes me think he can pull that off so far.
Josh Marshall wrote about this over the weekend, but the problem is what Trump sees as real "winning". Now, I'm not convinced that Trump can tell you what NAFTA stands for, let alone give you chapter and verse about what elements he thinks are somehow unfair to the U.S. and how to fix them. But to the extent he knows anything about NAFTA, he probably knows that Canada and Mexico have benefited. That's all that matters. Doesn't matter if we've benefited more, or just as much, or just a little less. Doesn't matter that we've benefited at all. All that matters is that Canada and Mexico didn't "lose", and they didn't "lose" than we didn't "win". Because to Trump, the only way to "win" a deal is to make the other side lose. So if you're an American who came out ahead thanks to NAFTA (like, pretty much anyone who grows anything), you're about to get ######.
   79. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: October 16, 2017 at 12:59 PM (#5554983)
OTOH, the Rs have no real need to make any urban improvements so long as the Ds don't head out to the hills.


What the Dems needs are about 2 million Californians to suddenly decide that Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Florida are nice places to live.
   80. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:00 PM (#5554984)
Tying the two ideas together, if he blows up NAFTA, the GOP would be at risk of losing big in rural districts. He'd basically ensure that neither he nor Pence could win in 2020 and, if the Ds would step in (it isn't clear to me that they would), they could lose both the House and Senate. NAFTA really helps rural districts and most of them know it. I generally agree with the idea that rural Trump voters aren't going to vote D in 2018 but will push the GOP nominees further right. But this is something that could wreck that calculation and open the field up.


As if on queue (though the story was from last week)

But Misirlou is right.... it's a culture problem, not a policy problem. And if Democrats decide that pretending we need more of the good ol' days where NFL players just thanked Jesus for touchdowns, Merry Christmas was the official US December greeting, and it's all nothing a healthier dose of straight, white males can't fix - well.... I suppose the chances are that they're still better than Trump, but not nearly enough better.
   81. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:01 PM (#5554987)
But there are rural districts that, based on economics, could be won. They'll never win a majority of rural districts but it need not be the landslide it currently is.


True. Comparing 2008 to 2016, it's amazing the turnaround in some rural districts. A D ran unopposed in VA 9 in 2008. In 2016 it went 68-22 R. In 2008, ND AL went 62-38 D. In 2016 it went 69-34 R. WI 7 went 61-39 D. In 2016 it was the same margin R. In 2008, Ds won 9 of 15 districts in AR, MS, and AL. In 2016, they won 2.
   82. Traderdave Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5554988)
History says no such thing


History says exactly that for 1930's Germany.
   83. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5554990)
So let's see. On the one hand, we have the collected wisdom and daily voting of the world's money managers and on the other we have ...


Somebody really needs to draw a swamp map so the rest of us can figure out when the elites are the bulwark of collected wisdom and when they're the parasitic Deep State cabal.
   84. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:06 PM (#5554991)
History says exactly that for 1930's Germany.


One example -- assuming it's true -- wasn't the assertion to which I was responding.

Nor is history particularly relevant in this regard. Markets and consumer/business/investor confidence in 2017 would not be responding in this way were the US government in fact fascist, incompetent, and warmongering. They'd be reacting in the way Paul Krugman laughably predicted on Election Night that they would react.
   85. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:06 PM (#5554994)
So let's see. On the one hand, we have the collected wisdom and daily voting of the world's money managers and on the other we have ... the crazed rantings of a bearded middle-aged suburban Atlantan with a thing for Bavarian creme-filleds.

Doesn't seem like too tough a choice, but again the world needs all types.
The trend is your friend until it ends, I guess.

Anyway, since we're using "the stock market" as the measure of performance, I guess we can agree that Bill Clinton was the "best" president in US history, and Obama was the second. Right? At least until the DOW hits 50K under Trump.
   86. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:08 PM (#5554997)
what's the difference between Weinstein and some guy tuning into Skinamax after midnight?


Or just the channel itself?
1. On Skinemax After Midnight, the women are enjoying themselves.
2. They don't show dongs on Skinemax.
3. Unlike Skinemax, you've heard of some of the actresses.
4. Harvey Weinstein didn't fake his orgasms.
5. His criminal collapse has an actual plot.
   87. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:11 PM (#5554998)
The trend is your friend until it ends, I guess.


Not really applicable. The loons have posited a type of government at the helm that itself would have broken the trend.

Anyway, since we're using "the stock market" as the measure of performance


We're not. We're using it as a check on whether the US government is incompetent, warmongering, and fascist -- as the loons have asserted. The stock market and other indicators definitively show how loony that theory is.
   88. Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™ Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:13 PM (#5555001)
64 might be the dumbest post I've ever read on this site, which is saying something.
   89. Traderdave Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:13 PM (#5555004)
What's up with so many changed handles lately? Makes it hard to track which ass hole is which.
   90. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:14 PM (#5555005)
The thing is the professionals think there is a reasonable chance that Democrats can win in 2018. Coin flip is the term I keep hearing. Anyway like generals politicians (and watchers on threads) keep fighting the previous war and not the current one.
   91. Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:16 PM (#5555006)
Our pladooka vishcas produces Flurvey Blimestock, Fifllyfolly pregums, and flarg belladonic fishfacery that lets them fleck afum their dibble as long as they fractice.

Completely farfif that brother Gog and other herdital flarks dleivered his mord on a dristal to NYR once he outgorned his blinglebag.

Haste makes waste.

#### you, perros, you ######### poser. Die in a fire.
   92. Nero Wolfe, Indeed Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:16 PM (#5555007)
Just looking at a few polls from Rasmussen and Gallup on Donald Trump's approval rating, and it recently sits somewhere between 38% and 43%.

This is where we are at. About 4 in 10 Americans would vote for a generic moron over the combination of Albert Schweitzer and Mother Teresa if the moron has an (R) next to their name.

**Not that I think the Democratic candidate the DNC forced upon us was any great shakes.
   93. Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5555008)
64 might be the dumbest post I've ever read on this site, which is saying something.


He's a ####### troll piece of ####. That's all. Always has been, always will be. Thinks he's a 21st century Socrates. Someone slip him a pound of arsenic.
   94. bunyon Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5555009)
But Misirlou is right.... it's a culture problem, not a policy problem. And if Democrats decide that pretending we need more of the good ol' days where NFL players just thanked Jesus for touchdowns, Merry Christmas was the official US December greeting, and it's all nothing a healthier dose of straight, white males can't fix - well.... I suppose the chances are that they're still better than Trump, but not nearly enough better.

I don't get this on the D side. Yes, winning districts that are deeply protestant and white probably requires running a fairly moderate white protestant male. The person who wins is supposed to represent the district, not the national average. Looking to run an athiest lesbian of color in such districts to appease urban voters is simply looking to lose. Having a majority is better than not having a majority. Without winning actual races, it matters not how virtuous your platform is. The nation is just not as liberal as many urban pols and voters would like. But it's much, much more liberal than the current House and Senate.
   95. Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5555010)
What's up with so many changed handles lately? Makes it hard to track which ass hole is which.



90% of the time it's perros.
   96. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:20 PM (#5555012)
German trains still run on time, to the second. fwiw

I think that Deutsche Bahn is pretty good, but a lot of Germans don't. Some of the equipment is old, and some of the timetables, particularly still in the East, are puzzling, but heck, if you're used to Amtrak, anything's marvelous.

I think that SNCF is pretty good, but French people don't – there may be a proximity effect at work here :)

Strikes are the biggest source of complaint. Italians going on strike is a cliché; you expect something vital to be down because of a sciopero on just about any day of the week. But big transit strikes are very frustrating for French and German commuters and travelers.
   97. BDC Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5555014)
64 might be the dumbest post I've ever read on this site

I actually had to check if I'd written #64. What a relief!
   98. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5555015)
Look, I still think the new Perros handle alerting system is unnecessarily silly overkill -- it's just as easy to assume it's either SBB or Perros and flip a coin -- but whatever.
   99. Satan Says Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5555016)
I've apparently offended the thread masturbators.

Don't let me stop you from fruitlessly expending your energies here. The world is a slightly better place as a result.

Thank you.
   100. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 16, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5555017)
Also: The buyer can't threaten or harass you criminally but he has the power to file a claim against you, frivolous as it may be. So the question is how much more time and hassle you want to go through here in order to get to the finish line of this.
Actually, the buyer can threaten or harass you. Yes, it would be illegal, but that wouldn't make it any less problematic to deal with. It's something you have to factor in just like the possibility of a frivolous suit.
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