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Monday, October 16, 2017

OTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true

As is sometimes the case with Trump’s tweet’s, his claims don’t hold up. We identified 14 games that Trump has attended since 1988, including two preseason games and the game above. Of those 14 games, the Yankees won eight and lost six — 57 percent of the time during seasons when the Yankees won 60 percent of their games overall.

In other words — Trump might be a jinx.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 07:49 AM | 1967 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, playoffs, politics, yankees

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   1901. dog poop god Posted: October 22, 2017 at 12:35 PM (#5560111)
Them having a library of Criterion Collection movies caught my eye

I checked out quite a few when Hulu had them, but a year's sub at $99 is too much if I'm going to watch 3-4 a month... when I already have a sub to Mubi at half that.

MUBI is a curated service that puts up a movie a day for 30 days. The limit of 30 titles for 30 days puts a nice constraint on too many choices and unlimited viewing opportunity.
   1902. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 12:54 PM (#5560121)
Rififi


Nice reminder. Have to dig that DVD out of the collection, SUCH an amazing heist sequence.
   1903. Greg K Posted: October 22, 2017 at 12:57 PM (#5560123)
Since we're talking about culturally significant movies, have any of you checked out Filmstruck? Them having a library of Criterion Collection movies caught my eye, since I used to shell out $30-$40 for those damn DVDs a decade and a half ago.

That sounds fun. One of the things I miss about the old DVD-mail-service companies was the great catalogues...they had pretty much everything. Streaming selection seems much more limited.

There is also the Criterion On Demand collection, but I get the sense that is marketed for schools and universities, not so much individuals. Their website seems awfully cagey about how much it costs.
   1904. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 01:12 PM (#5560127)
FWIW TCM shows Criterion Collection films all the time. I've managed to record nearly 100 of them by now onto DVDs. The only problems are (1) most of them come on around 2:00 Monday morning, and (2) even 100 films only scratches the Criterion surface.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Rififi

Nice reminder. Have to dig that DVD out of the collection, SUCH an amazing heist sequence.

Yeah, something like 15 or 20 minutes without a word being spoken.
   1905. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 22, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5560129)
Some of you must not be sending in your checks - DNC Reeling Financially After Brutal 2016:
The Democratic National Committee is reeling, facing a turnaround that's proving a much bigger lift than anyone expected as it struggles to raise enough money to cover its basic promises.

Many donors are refusing to write checks. And on-the-ground operatives worry they won’t have the resources to build the infrastructure they need to compete effectively in next year’s midterms and in the run-up to 2020.

The RNC isn't having similar problems, and both parties congressional campaign committees are doing OK, so the DNC struggles stand out. The DNC might not be critical for 2018 and beyond, but it appears that their fundraising strategy is to exaggerate their importance to such endeavors.
   1906. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 22, 2017 at 02:32 PM (#5560144)
FWIW TCM shows Criterion Collection films all the time. I've managed to record nearly 100 of them by now onto DVDs. The only problems are (1) most of them come on around 2:00 Monday morning, and (2) even 100 films only scratches the Criterion surface.


Man, this just reminds me of how long I've been away from keeping current with DVD releases. From 2002 to about 2006, I was obsessed with buying DVDs, including a lot of Criterion titles. I think Throne of Blood and Rashomon were my first two CC purchases, and they were relatively new at the time; checking the list, the CC library hadn't yet cracked 200. I see they're closing in on 900 now.
   1907. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 02:44 PM (#5560145)
Director James Toback the latest to be exposed, Weinstein-style.

I have firsthand experience relating to how he approached women. About 15 years ago the girl I was dating - 25 years old - said that Toback had approached her randomly in Manhattan, introduced himself, and said that she'd be perfect for a role in one of his movies. She took his card or number or whatever.

She explained the interaction to me and we then discussed the situation with her parents. None of us really knew much about how the industry worked, and certainly not much about Toback. We did understand very clearly that this was probably a casting couch situation. That said, you're never sure; the pitch he gave her sounded credible, and we knew from some quick internet research that he was who he said he was.

I then tried to dig up some dirt on him and I did find one random post buried in a random message board in which he was described as the ultimate casting couch director. So while there wasn't much out there and the post was anonymous, we understood clearly what this probably was - a casting couch effort. (Anything beyond that such as sexual assault never crossed our minds, and indeed that did not happen in this case.) But my girlfriend wanted to pull the string and see if he might actually be on the up and up about putting her in a movie. So we (including her parents) decided that it would be ok to meet him if (a) it was in a public place, and (b) I went along. I knew he wasn't going to be pleased when he showed up and found that I was there also. But that was entirely the point: if he was serious it wouldn't matter that I was there.

She called him and arranged a meeting in Starbucks. We both went and he was there. Indeed he did not look pleased to see me - he sort of sighed - and the three of us sat down and after some small talk he said "Yes, so I think I can find a place for you in one of my movies..." He wasn't very specific. She asked him which movie and which project he had in mind but again he wasn't specific. I forget exactly what was said after that but basically he left it that if she remained interested she should call him.

When the meeting broke up she said to me, "He's not serious; it was worth the time to find out but I'm not going to call him." And she didn't.

So that's it. He didn't do anything inappropriate at all but the stories in the LA Times piece ring true, at least as to how he would approach women. Because it was basically as it played out with her.

Quoting:

More than 30 women come forward to accuse director James Toback of sexual harassment

He prowled the streets of Manhattan looking for attractive young women, usually in their early 20s, sometimes college students, on occasion a high schooler. He approached them in Central Park, standing in line at a bank or drug store or at a copy center while they worked on their resumes.

His opening line had a few variations. One went: “My name’s James Toback. I’m a movie director. Have you ever seen ‘Black and White’ or ‘Two Girls and a Guy’?”
   1908. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 22, 2017 at 03:18 PM (#5560148)
Some tidbits from Maureen Dowd's NYT Interview With Jimmy Carter:
“I don’t think there’s any evidence that what the Russians did changed enough votes, or any votes.”
. . .
"I think the media have been harder on Trump than any other president certainly that I’ve known about,” Carter replied. “I think they feel free to claim that Trump is mentally deranged and everything else without hesitation.”

Jimmy was a Bernie Sanders voter, and the interview reflects his coolness toward Obama & Bill Clinton, but the feeling was mutual by all indications. Seems to be angling for an unlikely special envoy assignment, but doing fairly well for 93.
   1909. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 03:41 PM (#5560150)
FWIW TCM shows Criterion Collection films all the time. I've managed to record nearly 100 of them by now onto DVDs. The only problems are (1) most of them come on around 2:00 Monday morning, and (2) even 100 films only scratches the Criterion surface.

Man, this just reminds me of how long I've been away from keeping current with DVD releases. From 2002 to about 2006, I was obsessed with buying DVDs, including a lot of Criterion titles. I think Throne of Blood and Rashomon were my first two CC purchases, and they were relatively new at the time; checking the list, the CC library hadn't yet cracked 200. I see they're closing in on 900 now.


Yeah, they've really picked it up, but when they released their entire Kurosawa collection in a huge boxed set, TCM played every last one of them over the course of a month. If you check their schedule (and HBO's) every day, you'd be amazed at what you'll eventually be able to get for pennies on the dollar.
   1910. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 22, 2017 at 04:07 PM (#5560153)
Yeah, they've really picked it up, but when they released their entire Kurosawa collection in a huge boxed set, TCM played every last one of them over the course of a month. If you check their schedule (and HBO's) every day, you'd be amazed at what you'll eventually be able to get for pennies on the dollar.


Whoa, I hadn't seen that set before. For the longest time, it felt like enough of a financial investment to splurge on the four-movie samurai set from the early 2000s Criterion put out.

I moved around a lot over the last seven years, so I trimmed down big time on my DVD collection, but I hung on to most of my CC Kurosawa titles.

I never collected these things for value, but watching my collection pretty quickly lose any resale value, I started to question whether or not I was just better off taking advantage of channels such as TCM rather than dropping $20-$40 on a DVD I might watch once every three years, if that.
   1911. dog poop god Posted: October 22, 2017 at 04:20 PM (#5560156)
Toback, everybody knew.

Fingers is pretty good.
   1912. Greg K Posted: October 22, 2017 at 04:30 PM (#5560157)
I remember thinking Two Girls and a Guy might be right up my alley. An entire movie consisting of dialogue between three people in a room, plus Robert Downey Jr.!

Unfortunately it was some of the worst-written dialogue I've seen in a movie. Which is kind of a problem when that's the entirety of the film.
   1913. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 04:42 PM (#5560159)
I moved around a lot over the last seven years, so I trimmed down big time on my DVD collection, but I hung on to most of my CC Kurosawa titles.

I never collected these things for value, but watching my collection pretty quickly lose any resale value, I started to question whether or not I was just better off taking advantage of channels such as TCM rather than dropping $20-$40 on a DVD I might watch once every three years, if that.


I've probably bought about a dozen Criterion titles or sets during B&N's semi-annual half price sales, but those were titles like The Human Condition trilogy that I've never seen on TCM, and I didn't want to miss the opportunity. But besides the Kurosawa set, TCM's also run Rossellini's war trilogy many times, The Tokyo Story more times than I can count, other foreign classics like Children of Paradise, Bicycle Thieves, Shoeshine, The Housemaid, Kapo, M, about a dozen Gabins, and God knows how many of their better Hollywood titles. I've also never collected DVD's for anything other than the convenience of being able to watch them anytime I want to, but if I'd paid commercial DVD prices for the ones I've been able to record, it would've put a serious dent in our household income. AFAIC TCM is one of the greatest cultural institutions this country's ever produced, even if their promos use "movie" as a verb.
   1914. tshipman Posted: October 22, 2017 at 04:45 PM (#5560162)
So silent support here as the fascists in Madrid smash Catalan autonomy by disolving its government and imposing direct rule? Or is it that if it didn't involve the US, it didn't happen?


1. I don't understand the situation very well, which is unusually opaque to US audiences.
2. I'm pretty sure it's not what you're describing.
   1915. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 22, 2017 at 05:01 PM (#5560168)
AFAIC TCM is one of the greatest cultural institutions this country's ever produced, even if their promos use "movie" as a verb.


Agreed. And it's been nice that they didn't take the divergence into edited content and commercials like AMC did with their already inferior library long ago.

I've had an on-off relationship with movies my whole life, but I don't think I've gone more than a few months without recording something on TCM, starting around this time 20 years ago when I set up some god-forsaken 4 am airing of Nosferatu.
   1916. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 05:13 PM (#5560173)
Agreed. And it's been nice that they didn't take the divergence into edited content and commercials like AMC did with their already inferior library long ago.

They promote their cruises, wines, auctions and DVDs like crazy in between shows, but once the movies start, they're blessedly uninterrupted. I realize it's purely a personal preference, but I don't see how anyone can enjoy a movie when it's broken up into 3 to 10 parts by advertising. It just ruins the entire viewing experience.

I've had an on-off relationship with movies my whole life, but I don't think I've gone more than a few months without recording something on TCM, starting around this time 20 years ago when I set up some god-forsaken 4 am airing of Nosferatu.

I'm just grateful that I waited until I closed my shop to buy a DVD recorder, because even now it's hard to keep up with everything that's available for the asking, and back then it would've been impossible.
   1917. PreservedFish Posted: October 22, 2017 at 05:22 PM (#5560175)
Why did RDP remain silent about Toback's predatory nature for an entire decade? How far do the tentacles of the liberal Hollywood industrial rape complex stretch???

Just kidding. Fascinating story and it sounds like you and the comely young lass played it perfectly.
   1918. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 22, 2017 at 05:50 PM (#5560183)
So much for tax cuts for the middle class:

Republicans consider sharp cut in 401(k) contribution limits

WASHINGTON — House Republicans are considering a plan to sharply reduce the amount of income American workers can save in tax-deferred retirement accounts as part of a broad effort to rewrite the tax code, according to lobbyists, tax consultants and congressional Democrats.

It is unclear if Republicans will ultimately include a cap on contributions in the tax bill that they are expected to release in the coming weeks. Such a move would almost certainly prompt a vocal backlash from middle-class workers who save heavily in such retirement accounts and from the asset management industry.

The proposals under discussion would potentially cap the annual amount workers can set aside to as low as $2,400 for 401(k) accounts, several lobbyists and consultants said on Friday. Workers may currently put up to $18,000 a year in 401(k) accounts without paying taxes upfront on that money; that figure rises to $24,000 for workers over 50. When workers retire and begin to draw income from those accounts, they pay taxes on the benefits.

Rumors have circulated for months that negotiators were debating including a cap as a way to help offset the revenue loss from a reduction in business tax rates that Republicans have put at the center of their plan. Reducing contribution limits would be, in effect, an accounting maneuver that would create space for tax cuts by collecting tax revenue now instead of in the future.

Such a move would be likely to push Americans to shift their savings to so-called Roth accounts, where contributions are taxed immediately, and not when they are drawn out as benefits. That would increase federal tax receipts for the short run.


   1919. Walks Clog Up the Bases Posted: October 22, 2017 at 06:09 PM (#5560190)
They promote their cruises, wines, auctions and DVDs like crazy in between shows, but once the movies start, they're blessedly uninterrupted. I realize it's purely a personal preference, but I don't see how anyone can enjoy a movie when it's broken up into 3 to 10 parts by advertising. It just ruins the entire viewing experience.


I'm the same way. I live pretty close to my mom, so I check in with her on a daily basis. She enjoys a lot of the same TV shows I do, so very often I'll make dinner for her and we'll watch one. She's pushed to watch more classic movies, but I can't go in for it most of the time, because she's the type who watches them in 20 minute segments.

It reminds me of how David Lynch said movies aren't meant to be consumed like books (i.e. in chapters), which is why there weren't any chapter breaks on the Mulholland Drive DVD that came out in the early to mid 2000s.

Alas, that was kind of a pain in the ass "feature," because, let's face it, it is hard to watch something that's over two hours without some sort of interruption.
   1920. PreservedFish Posted: October 22, 2017 at 06:18 PM (#5560193)

It reminds me of how David Lynch said movies aren't meant to be consumed like books (i.e. in chapters), which is why there weren't any chapter breaks on the Mulholland Drive DVD that came out in the early to mid 2000s.

Alas, that was kind of a pain in the ass "feature," because, let's face it, it is hard to watch something that's over two hours without some sort of interruption.


Particularly a film with a quality lesbian scene. The struggle is real!
   1921. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 06:21 PM (#5560194)
Director James Toback the latest to be exposed, Weinstein-style.
I read the article. I understand why one would go along with it at the time, and why one would be scared if one were alone with him at the time, but the descriptions of the events from these women make the guy sound just utterly pathetic, not frightening. I'm embarrassed for the guy.
   1922. Joe Bivens Will Take a Steaming Dump Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:01 PM (#5560196)
My company institute a Roth IRA option last year.


edit..I think the Roth is a good deal, as long as they don't change the rules on us. I think if they renege and tax gains on Roths there will be a lot of retirees looking to commit murder.
   1923. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:05 PM (#5560197)
More clickbait bad reporting of science by the NYT: Body Cameras Have Little Effect on Police Behavior, Study Says:
After a series of high-profile police shootings, police departments across the nation turned to body cameras, hoping they would curb abuses. But a rigorous study released Friday shows that they have almost no effect on officer behavior.
I'm not quarreling with the study itself, which I haven't yet read. I'm quarreling with the NYT's description of it. Here's what an attempt to accurately report it would say: A new study, if accurate, found that body cameras did not have an effect on police behavior as measured by certain selected metrics in one place, for one short period of time. The reporter doesn't seem to understand that, even if a study is "rigorous" and its results are valid and are being interpreted correctly, there is literally zero basis for assuming that because body cameras in Washington DC in one short period¹ in 2015-2016 did not have an effect, that body cameras would not have an effect anywhere else.


Incidentally, as far as I can tell the NYT once again refused to provide a hyperlink to a study that it wrote about.



¹The second paragraph of the article calls it an "18-month study," but lower down in the article, it says, "Each officer was tracked for seven months."
   1924. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:24 PM (#5560199)

¹The second paragraph of the article calls it an "18-month study," but lower down in the article, it says, "Each officer was tracked for seven months."
I found the study. Both statements are true. What happened is that they rolled out the camera experiment in different precincts at different times, so it was an 18 month period before all precincts were covered. But no officer in either the trial group or control group was tracked for more than 7 months. YMMV on whether "18-month study" or "7-month study" is a better description of that.
   1925. dog poop god Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:41 PM (#5560200)
I understand why one would go along with it at the time, and why one would be scared if one were alone with him at the time, but the descriptions of the events from these women make the guy sound just utterly pathetic, not frightening. I'm embarrassed for the guy.


Concur. At what point do people take responsibility for their own action/ non-action. Toback was a pretty obvious creep/er, but these potential actresses tended to play along for the sake of career advancement. If he truly assaulted them, falsely imprisoned them, etc., they could have sworn out a warrant for his arrest. He's no Harvey Weinstein.

Maybe as good a time as any to lay my philosophical cards on the table (in no particular order):

materialist
atheist
libertarian
constitutionalist
phenomenologist
pessimist*

Not to mention a great humanitarian and philanthropist.

*all wrapped together
   1926. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:42 PM (#5560201)
Morty C:
but... anyway, what's more important is that everyone should read Mark Harris' "Pictures at a Revolution," a book which uses the 1967 Oscar slate of Best Picture nominees (Guess Who's Coming to Dinner, The Graduate, In the Heat of the Night, Bonnie and Clyde, and... Doctor Doolittle (!)) as the hub to discuss the seismic shifts in Hollywood filmmaking that occurred at that time.

Have you read Harris's Five Came Back?



Yes, "Five Came Back" was the book I brought for airport time during a multi-stop European vacation a couple of years ago. I'll read anything Mark Harris writes. He also wrote a series of sharp and pithy Oscar horse race columns for the Grantland site, a feature that unfortunately halted to avoid conflict of interest when his husband was a touted candidate and ultimate nominee for the "Lincoln" screenplay. (And then the Grantland itself unfortunately halted, too.)

"Five Came Back" is about five directors-- John Ford, William Wyler, Frank Capra, George Stevens and John Huston-- whose careers were interrupted by World War II service. It goes on to look at that service, as well as the war's impact on each director, focusing on the differences between what they'd filmed before the war, and their work after it. The book was adapted to a three-part documentary on Netflix, which is not as in-depth as the book, but has a slew of movie clips illustrating the observations.

It's a worthwhile read, or worthwhile watch. That said, I found it less viscerally compelling as "Pictures from a Revolution." Perhaps it's just that World War II, including the Hollywood angle, has been much, much, much more ploughed.
   1927. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:45 PM (#5560202)
I'm not quarreling with the study itself, which I haven't yet read. I'm quarreling with the NYT's description of it. Here's what an attempt to accurately report it would say: A new study, if accurate, found that body cameras did not have an effect on police behavior as measured by certain selected metrics in one place, for one short period of time. The reporter doesn't seem to understand that, even if a study is "rigorous" and its results are valid and are being interpreted correctly, there is literally zero basis for assuming that because body cameras in Washington DC in one short period¹ in 2015-2016 did not have an effect, that body cameras would not have an effect anywhere else.

But the article specifically explained why the Washington findings might have been an anomaly:

Criminologists said there were several possible explanations for the cameras’ apparent lack of impact. The Metropolitan Police Department has a reputation for being better-than-average in terms of both training and supervision, so whether officers wear cameras or not may have made little difference in their behavior.

The department has already had to confront excessive-force problems. After a Washington Post series in 1998 revealed that the city’s officers had shot and killed more people per resident in the 1990s than any other police force in a large American city, the Department of Justice entered into a memorandum of agreement with the city to reform its policing.

“We went through a transformation with regard to use of force when Justice came in here,” Chief Newsham said.

Under this theory, cities that have not had such reviews and calls for accountability may find that cameras have a greater effect.


Incidentally, as far as I can tell the NYT once again refused to provide a hyperlink to a study that it wrote about.

I wish they had as well, but an earlier study in the Post did provide the link.

¹The second paragraph of the article calls it an "18-month study," but lower down in the article, it says, "Each officer was tracked for seven months."

Why is that supposed to be a Gotcha? Since the study found that there was little difference in the officers' behavior at the start and the end of their 7 months of camera wearing, why would you assume that having each officer wear his or her camera for 18 months instead of 7 would have made any difference in the overall findings?

EDIT: coke to the bloke who asked and and then later answered his own question.

   1928. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 22, 2017 at 07:53 PM (#5560205)
And since we're linking to Washington Post stories, here's one that some of us found to be of interest, especially in light of a recent discussion earlier in this thread:

Cheaper Health Plans Promoted by Trump Have a History of Fraud

WASHINGTON — In signing a recent executive order, President Trump promised that millions of Americans could soon obtain “great, great health care” through inexpensive plans that offer consumers options they had been denied under the Affordable Care Act.

But these health plans, created for small businesses, have a darker side: They have a long history of fraud and abuse that have left employers and employees with hundreds of millions of dollars in unpaid medical bills.

The problems are described in dozens of court cases and enforcement actions taken over more than a decade by federal and state officials who regulate the type of plans Mr. Trump is encouraging, known as association health plans.

In many cases, the Labor Department said, it has targeted “unscrupulous promoters who sell the promise of inexpensive health benefit insurance, but default on their obligations.” In several cases, it has found that people managing these health plans diverted premiums to their personal use.

The department filed suit this year against an association health plan for 300 small employers in Washington State, asserting that its officers had mismanaged the plan’s assets and charged employers more than $3 million in excessive “administrative fees.” Operators of the health plan violated their fiduciary duty by using its assets “in their own interest,” rather than for the benefit of workers, the government said.

Marc I. Machiz, who investigated insurance fraud as a Labor Department lawyer for more than 20 years, said the executive order was “summoning back demons from the deep.”

“Fraudulent association health plans have left hundreds of thousands of people with unpaid claims,” he said. “They operate in a regulatory never-never land between the Department of Labor and state insurance regulators.”....

Large group plans and self-insured plans are subject to fewer federal and state requirements than individual or small group insurance. They are, for example, not required to provide “essential health benefits” like mental health care and prescription drugs.

But Mila Kofman, a former insurance superintendent in Maine who has done extensive research on association health plans, said they also often falsely claimed to be exempt from state insurance laws, as a way to explain how they could offer premiums lower than those charged by licensed insurance companies.

When small businesses having no connection with one another buy health insurance through an association today, they are still generally treated as small businesses under the law, and coverage sold to them must comply with state consumer protection laws. But that could change under the executive order.

Mr. Trump’s proposals could overturn longstanding interpretations of federal law. In numerous advisory opinions, the Labor Department has set forth an elaborate test for association health plans, saying they can be established only by a “bona fide group or association” of employers who are tied together by genuine economic interests other than just providing insurance to their employees.

The White House has suggested that the Labor Department could loosen these requirements, allowing employers anywhere in the country to join together “for the express purpose of offering group insurance.” Mr. Trump would then be taking a first step to achieve an overarching political goal. As a candidate, he often said he wanted to let Americans buy health insurance across state lines, at lower cost with fewer rules.

But history shows the risks of an expansion of association health plans. If a plan becomes insolvent, the impact on consumers can be devastating.

Robert Loiseau, who represented fraud victims in Texas, recalled their shock when they tried to receive care. “People bought insurance coverage because it was cheap and seemed to provide them with coverage they needed,” he said. “It had a veneer of legitimacy. But when they went to the doctor, they found out all of a sudden that their insurance company, their perceived insurance company, was in receivership and that they had no coverage.”....


Yeah, I know, "willing buyer and willing seller", "caveat emptor", blah blah blah. That's what Trump's defenders say about "Trump University", so I guess it's only fitting that they'd make these same defenses here.
   1929. greenback wears sandals on his head Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:03 PM (#5560206)
Holy cow, this is not a good look:

Browder is a driver behind these Magnitsky acts, and Putin hates him for it, understandably. Twice in 2013, he tried to add Browder to Interpol’s wanted list, and twice he failed, because Interpol knew that Putin was politically motivated. Browder is not a criminal. He is an anti-criminal, which is why Putin targets him.

In 2014, Putin tried again — no dice. Last summer, Browder testified against him before the Judiciary Committee in the U.S. Senate, to damning effect. Obviously ticked, Putin tried again. This time, Interpol had Browder’s name on the list for a month, before deleting it.

In the wake of Canada’s new Magnitsky act, Putin has tried again. Tried for a fifth time. Interpol has accepted his request. Worse, the U.S. government seems in partnership with the Kremlin: Our government has revoked Browder’s visa. (American-born, Browder is a British citizen.)

Emphasis mine.
   1930. Morty Causa Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:23 PM (#5560207)
It's a worthwhile read, or worthwhile watch. That said, I found it less viscerally compelling as "Pictures from a Revolution." Perhaps it's just that World War II, including the Hollywood angle, has been much, much, much more ploughed.

Thanks for the response. I linked Five Came Back and referred to it more than once in the last year or two. Having personally plowed my way through the '60s and '70s as they transpired, consuming the products as they came hot off the griddle with the attendant spoors excreted by the noted contemporary kibitzers of the times, it's more or less the opposite for me.
   1931. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:26 PM (#5560209)
here's a Planet money podcast on Browder and Magnitsky

Horrible story about Magnitsky. Keep in mind these are the people Trump and his supporters ador.
   1932. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:31 PM (#5560211)
#1931

I remember hearing that podcast and wondering what the future held for him. It doesn't sound so good now. :(
   1933. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:34 PM (#5560213)
I remember hearing that podcast and wondering what the future held for him. It doesn't sound so good now. :(


I'd pay my life savings to see Trump get the treatment Magnitsky got.
   1934. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:37 PM (#5560214)
I'd pay my life savings to see Trump get the treatment Magnitsky got.
Look, I dislike Trump as much as the next sane person, but I don't think he deserves to be murdered by Putin.
   1935. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:40 PM (#5560215)
Look, I dislike Trump as much as the next sane person, but I don't think he deserves to be murdered by Putin.


I know, hyperbole. Maybe a couple of months in Putin's cells?

edit: Not because Trump is a horrible president. Because Trump actively cheers on and quietly supports such governance. Do him good to experience what life is like in a country he aspires ours to be.
   1936. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:45 PM (#5560216)

I know, hyperbole. Maybe a couple of months in Putin's cells?
Again, why so vindictive? I'd be perfectly satisfied if he spent some months in one of America's prison cells.
   1937. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 22, 2017 at 08:46 PM (#5560217)
Again, why so vindictive? I'd be perfectly satisfied if he spent some months in one of America's prison cells.


See my edit.
   1938. greenback wears sandals on his head Posted: October 22, 2017 at 09:21 PM (#5560222)
Because Trump actively cheers on and quietly supports such governance.

Trump doesn't quietly support anything. Somebody like Yankee Clapper knows exactly what Trump stands for, but YC just doesn't care.
   1939. Greg K Posted: October 22, 2017 at 09:32 PM (#5560225)

I remember hearing that podcast and wondering what the future held for him. It doesn't sound so good now. :(

In one of Anthony Bourdain's shows he goes to Moscow and has a dinner with Boris Nemtsov. At one point Bourdain asks him he's worried about reprisals from Putin, and Nemtsov says (effectively) "well, if I were to be killed everyone would know Putin was behind it, so that offers some protection".
   1940. Tom T Posted: October 22, 2017 at 11:01 PM (#5560232)
YMMV on whether "18-month study" or "7-month study" is a better description of that.


Definitely the correct question, David.

In our work, we always emphasize that we track athletes over "one season" (at a time), and we always refer to our assessments within the context of that one season. Technically, athletes who participate in our study for more than one year are tracked relatively frequently over multiple calendar years, but we still avoid referring to anything as a "year-long" study just because a kid may drop out, may miss one or more assessments, etc. That said, we refer to our study as having been active for 8 years, because we collected athlete-seasons for 8 consecutive years...and each year of a HS football team (for example) could be quite different from any other (depending on changes to the coaching staff, kamikaze kids starting/finishing eligibility, etc.), so we can make comparisons *across* years.

In the reported case, I would expressly avoid trying to assign any label to the period of the overall study, instead focusing on the monitoring of police officers for up to 7 months at a time, especially given that the total period of study is not long enough for officers to arrive on/work through/leave the force.
   1941. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 23, 2017 at 02:10 AM (#5560240)
Sen. John McCain yesterday, on the Vietnam War:
"One aspect of the conflict, by the way, that I will never, ever countenance is that we drafted the lowest income level of America. And the highest income level found a doctor that would say they had a bone spur."
   1942. Ishmael Posted: October 23, 2017 at 05:54 AM (#5560245)
materialist
[…]
phenomenologist

Are these statements of method, or statements of belief?

Are they in conflict, do you think?
   1943. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 23, 2017 at 07:05 AM (#5560246)
NBC News: Mueller Now Investigating Democratic Lobbyist Tony Podesta:
The probe of Podesta and his Democratic-leaning lobbying firm grew out of Mueller's inquiry into the finances of former Trump campaign chairman Paul Manafort, according to the sources. As special counsel, Mueller has been tasked with investigating possible collusion between the Trump campaign and Russia.

Manafort had organized a public relations campaign for a non-profit called the European Centre for a Modern Ukraine (ECMU). Podesta's company was one of many firms that worked on the campaign, which promoted Ukraine's image in the West.

The sources said the investigation into Podesta and his company began as more of a fact-finding mission about the ECMU and Manafort's role in the campaign, but has now morphed into a criminal inquiry into whether the firm violated the Foreign Agents Registration Act, known as FARA... John Podesta is not currently affiliated with the Podesta Group and is not part of Mueller's investigation.
   1944. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 23, 2017 at 07:09 AM (#5560247)
National Journal: House GOP Fears Wave in 2018 as Money Woes Grow:
House Republicans are growing increasingly alarmed that some of their most vulnerable members aren’t doing the necessary legwork to protect themselves from an emerging Democratic tidal wave. In some of the biggest media markets, where blockbuster fundraising is a prerequisite for political survival—most notably in New York City, Los Angeles, and Houston—Republican lawmakers aren’t raising enough money to run aggressive campaigns against up-and-coming Democrats.

Of the 53 House Republicans facing competitive races, according to Cook Political Report ratings, a whopping 21 have been outraised by at least one Democratic opponent in the just-completed fundraising quarter. That’s a stunningly high number this early in the cycle, one that illustrates just how favorable the political environment is for House Democrats. The third-quarter fundraising reports paint a gloomy picture for many Republicans... [a half-dozen examples cited]

...Money doesn’t always translate to victory, but the sheer number of House Republicans struggling to adequately prepare for difficult reelection campaigns—combined with the historic amount brought in by little-known Democratic candidates—points to an ominous political environment ahead for Republicans. Just as Republican voters are disillusioned with the lack of legislative accomplishments despite holding majorities in both chambers of Congress, some GOP donors are withholding their checks to protest the inactivity as well.

In addition, weak fundraising totals in the year before an election often suggest that members are thinking about heading for the exits. One senior Republican House strategist warned that if Congress can’t pass tax reform into law, a wave of retirements will soon follow. ...So far, 18 House Republicans have announced their retirements in this election cycle, the highest number at this stage since 2004.

There were wave elections in the House in 2006 and especially 2010, and a 20+ pickup in 2008. The last three elections have been rather sedate, at least on the scoreboard.
   1945. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 23, 2017 at 07:53 AM (#5560248)

Cheaper Health Plans Promoted by Trump Have a History of Fraud


I assume these are the $1/month insurance policies he was raving about a few months ago.
   1946. Lassus Posted: October 23, 2017 at 08:15 AM (#5560250)
I guess Trump actually was a jinx.






(I may owe someone a coke, I ain't going back to check.)
   1947. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 23, 2017 at 08:30 AM (#5560253)
Cheaper Health Plans Promoted by Trump Have a History of Fraud

I assume these are the $1/month insurance policies he was raving about a few months ago.

WILLING BUYER AND WILLING SELLER! THEY KNEW WHAT THEY WERE GETTING INTO! FREEDOM ISN'T FREE!
   1948. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 23, 2017 at 08:36 AM (#5560256)
I submitted a new thread, it should appear at some point.
   1949. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:05 AM (#5560262)
NBC News: Mueller Now Investigating Democratic Lobbyist Tony Podesta:


If they're investigating whether Tony Podesta's firm filled out all of its registration forms correctly, the investigation has spun completely out of control.
   1950. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:10 AM (#5560264)
Today's dispatch from the Reality Might Be Starting To Finally Creep In, At Least A Little Bit files:

All three committees looking into Russian interference — one in the House, two in the Senate — have run into problems, from insufficient staffing to fights over when the committees should wrap up their investigations. The Senate Judiciary Committee’s inquiry has barely started, delayed in part by negotiations over the scope of the investigation. Leaders of the Senate Intelligence Committee, while maintaining bipartisan comity, have sought to tamp down expectations about what they might find.

Nine months into the Trump administration, any notion that Capitol Hill would provide a comprehensive, authoritative and bipartisan accounting of the extraordinary efforts of a hostile power to disrupt American democracy appears to be dwindling.


Source: Gray Lady, above the fold.
   1951. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:18 AM (#5560266)
"One aspect of the conflict, by the way, that I will never, ever countenance is that we drafted the lowest income level of America. And the highest income level found a doctor that would say they had a bone spur."


And who was wealthy and got a deferment because of a bone spur?
   1952. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:21 AM (#5560269)
Sgt. David Johnson's widow on GMA... and tweets already inbound.
   1953. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:23 AM (#5560270)
Sgt. David Johnson's widow on GMA... and tweets already inbound.


Yeah. Trump calling the widow a liar. Can I say that's not a good look for him?
   1954. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:24 AM (#5560273)
Can I say that's not a good look for him?


You can say it, but it won't matter. Trumpkins don't care. They've spent the first few hours of the morning today explaining why John McCain's not a patriotic American anymore. This is a problem that won't be solved with reasoned debate.
   1955. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:26 AM (#5560274)
SBB Larvell, #1950:
Today's dispatch from the Reality Might Be Starting To Finally Creep In, At Least A Little Bit files:
Source: Gray Lady, above the fold.



Yes, "realityburger time" is exactly the premise of that article. You so nailed it.
   1956. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:27 AM (#5560276)
For everyone else:
Jared Kushner, President Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser, fielded question after question from members of the House Intelligence Committee. Though the allotted time for the grilling had expired, he offered to stick around as long as they wanted.

But Representative Trey Gowdy, who spent nearly three years investigating Hillary Clinton’s culpability in the deadly 2012 attack in Benghazi, Libya, was growing frustrated after two hours. You are in an unwinnable situation, Mr. Gowdy, a South Carolina Republican, counseled Mr. Kushner. If you leave now, Democrats will say you did not answer all the questions. If you stay, they will keep you here all week.

The exchange, described by three people with knowledge of it, typified the political morass that is crippling the House Intelligence Committee’s investigation into Russian meddling in the 2016 election — and whether the Trump campaign colluded in any way.

...Nine months into the Trump administration, any notion that Capitol Hill would provide a comprehensive, authoritative and bipartisan accounting of the extraordinary efforts of a hostile power to disrupt American democracy appears to be dwindling.

...[Trey Gowdy] is is looking to Robert S. Mueller III, the special counsel, to conduct an apolitical investigation.

...But all three [investigations] are up against a ticking clock, with Republicans in both chambers eager to wrap up the investigations before too long.

Particularly in the House, partisan fighting is likely to undermine whatever conclusions the committee reaches. One lawmaker said the committee would probably produce two reports. The first, written by Republicans, is expected to forcefully say there is no proof that anyone around Mr. Trump worked with Russia to tip the election. A Democratic report will probably raise unanswered questions and say that the committee was never fully committed to answering them.

The panel has been on rocky ground for months, with much of the controversy surrounding the committee’s chairman, Representative Devin Nunes of California. Mr. Nunes was forced to step aside from leading the investigation in April after it was disclosed that he had received classified information from the White House that showed that Mr. Trump and his associates were incidentally swept up in foreign surveillance by American spy agencies.

...Senator Dianne Feinstein...[said]...that Mr. Mueller stood a much better chance of reaching a definitive conclusion about collusion than the committees did.

...[Senate Judiciary Committee] investigators reached an impasse in recent weeks, as Democrats and Republicans haggled over the next witnesses to call and documents to request.

...Hopes of interviewing Paul J. Manafort, Mr. Trump’s former campaign chairman, collapsed over the summer after prosecutors working for Mr. Mueller warned Mr. Manafort that they planned to seek criminal charges against him.
   1957. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:31 AM (#5560278)
You can say it, but it won't matter. Trumpkins don't care. They've spent the first few hours of the morning today explaining why John McCain's not a patriotic American anymore. This is a problem that won't be solved with reasoned debate.


It must be so fun and productive to closely follow the minute-by-minute utterances of a bunch of degenerates. Can I subscribe to your newsletter?
   1958. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:35 AM (#5560280)
It must be so fun and productive to closely follow the utterances of a bunch of degenerates. Can I subscribe to your newsletter?


No need. Just subscribe to his twitter feed:

I had a very respectful conversation with the widow of Sgt. La David Johnson, and spoke his name from beginning, without hesitation!
   1959. Morty Causa Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:36 AM (#5560282)
1947

Rand Paul looks like he's afraid he'll be reduced to a zombie pile of rot if he touches Trump's hand.
   1960. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:37 AM (#5560283)
No need. Just subscribe to his twitter feed:


I have better things to do, thanks.
   1961. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:40 AM (#5560286)
No need. Just subscribe to his twitter feed:


I have better things to do, thanks.


Irony checkmate in 7 words -- impressive!
   1962. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:43 AM (#5560288)
Irony checkmate in 7 words -- impressive!


To be fair, the very last thing SBB can afford to do at this point is to look squarely at reality and realize he's so critically part of the problem.
   1963. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:44 AM (#5560289)
he's so critically part of the problem.


I'm not going to join your loony tribe no matter how nice you ask.
   1964. Lassus Posted: October 23, 2017 at 09:48 AM (#5560293)
I'm not going to join your loony tribe no matter how nice you ask.

I can agree this seems redundant, given residence your own loony tribe.
   1965. Bring Me the Head of Alfredo Griffin (Vlad) Posted: October 23, 2017 at 10:56 AM (#5560321)
loony tribe


I don't think the Canadians probably want SugarBear, either.
   1966. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 23, 2017 at 11:01 AM (#5560322)
I don't think the Canadians probably want SugarBear, either.
But they'd be too polite to say so...
   1967. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 23, 2017 at 11:15 AM (#5560328)


New thread is up.
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