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Monday, October 16, 2017

OTP 16 October 2017: Sorry, Yankee fans: Trump’s claim that he can ensure victory simply isn’t true

As is sometimes the case with Trump’s tweet’s, his claims don’t hold up. We identified 14 games that Trump has attended since 1988, including two preseason games and the game above. Of those 14 games, the Yankees won eight and lost six — 57 percent of the time during seasons when the Yankees won 60 percent of their games overall.

In other words — Trump might be a jinx.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 16, 2017 at 07:49 AM | 1967 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: astros, playoffs, politics, yankees

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   901. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:00 PM (#5557032)
All the derangement simply feeds into a point I've made many times. We need a figurehead to do things like comfort the loved ones of fallen soldiers -- a king, a queen, a Kardashian, whatever -- and someone else to do the important work as chief executive.


And Trump is qualified to do neither.
   902. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:01 PM (#5557033)
Yet somehow, the previous 44 Presidents managed to pull it off.


We have no idea whether they did, because we didn't have social media and its attendant obsessions for all but two, maybe three, of them.

Nor did you and yours really think Bush "pulled it off" -- he was portrayed as unfeeling to that woman who lost a son (*) and routinely suffered the slings and arrows of similar criticisms.

(*) Cindy Johnson, maybe?
   903. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5557034)
And Trump is qualified to do neither.


VIX, stock market, bond market, consumer/investor/business confidence, etc.

And I'd add to that from the left -- cutting off federal subsidies to health insurance companies whose role in the health care system needs to be significantly downsized. Actual liberals used to be able to understand this.

   904. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5557036)
But I want to step back from the immediate moment of this call to look at this whole unfolding moment over the last two or three days. It’s what I said yesterday. President Trump is poison. Everything around him gets damaged and degraded. It’s not any one thing. It’s everything. It’s hard to evaluate the dynamics of this call out of the context of waiting ten days, lying about his predecessors, creating this hideous spectacle with James Kelly’s son. Was the family prepped for something off because of the preceding three days? Probably. Was Trump angry about all the criticism? Probably so. It’s a perfect storm. And it all builds out of one man, Donald Trump.
This misses the point.

Trump was asked about the 4 Green Berets killed in Niger - what were they doing there, and why were they killed if they were in a non-combat capacity (like they were supposed to be)? Trump responded by saying he "planned to" call the families (12 days after they were killed), and added the dig at former presidents not calling families of those KIA. Before that, Trump had never mentioned the incident.

So it took a direct question from a reporter for Trump to even acknowledge the incident happened - that 4 US soldiers had been KIA. If he hadn't been publicly asked about it, he may have never called them. And then, instead of answering the question, he changed the subject and took it as an opportunity to lie about his predecessors.

And today, still no one is talking about why these "advisors" were killed.
   905. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:05 PM (#5557038)
This kind of drivel could only come from an addict and reads as the scribblings of an addict would read.


Do you doubt that Trump poisons everything he gets involved with? Is this situation not made worse by his words and deeds? The perception of how the government is handling Puerto Rico? Telling hurricane refugees to have a good time? feuding with members of his own party in Congress? Charlottesville? Terrorist attacks in London? Little Rocket man? And on and on. Is there any, ANY situation not made worse or at least perceived to be worse after Trump gets involved? Don't forget, many, many of his critics in his handling of these issues and events are members of his own party. It's hardly just the unhinged left.
   906. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:06 PM (#5557040)
stock market, bond market,


As a bond market professional for more than two decades, I'm curious to hear how both of these support your thesis about the 4th member of the Trinity. Please, enlighten me.
   907. Hot Wheeling American Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:07 PM (#5557041)
Was there a recent article or popular tweet in the President Deals media orbit that mentioned the Volatility Index? SBB went from zero to a thousand on referencing it recently.
   908. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:09 PM (#5557042)
Do you doubt that Trump poisons everything he gets involved with?


Yes, and in fact I think anyone who would say that isn't worth listening to.

Which isn't to say I won't necessarily listen -- indeed I do listen, and actually read the unhinged rantings from TPM that zonk posted -- but saying such things forfeits virtually all credibility.

It's now pretty easy to tell when you're reading the material of a social media echo chamber addict. When I see it, I've started to turn out -- that's also a product of the social media age. We all have our heuristics. When the medium is the message, I'm losing interest in reading the message.




   909. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:23 PM (#5557047)
Was there a recent article or popular tweet in the President Deals media orbit that mentioned the Volatility Index? SBB went from zero to a thousand on referencing it recently.


The desperate search to look for some metric (really any metric) that he could use to express his love for Trump* led him to the pretty junky VIX and a reliance on the stock market. He threw the bond market in there, because "hey, why not?"

Here on Earth we all realize that there is only a loose correlation between the various financial markets and the economic health of the nation, and also that Presidents don't actually have all that much to do with the economic health of the nation, but hey any port in a storm.

* Of course he ignores it when people mention that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had very good overall stock market performance - "Something, something, Modern liberals."
   910. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:27 PM (#5557050)
And of course, the follow on fact that no such person could ever be remotely qualified to hold the nuclear codes should go without saying.

There isn't the slightest connection between the two.
Yeah, I don't get the connection here, either. That's a weird overbid.

There are, of course, many *other* reasons why Trump shouldn't have access to the codes. Such as, he apparently believe Hannity is a "journalist" and the stuff he says are facts. Trump is impulsive and could seek to act on incomplete and/or incorrect information. When those actions include nukes, that's bad.

   911. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:29 PM (#5557054)
Wow, FBI confirms report that James Comey drafted letter exonerating Crooked Hillary Clinton long before investigation was complete. Many..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017

...people not interviewed, including Clinton herself. Comey stated under oath that he didn't do this-obviously a fix? Where is Justice Dept?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017

As it has turned out, James Comey lied and leaked and totally protected Hillary Clinton. He was the best thing that ever happened to her!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017


As to the underlying story, it's not news that Comey wasn't serious about recommending prosecution. As I noted at the time and since, you don't interview the target on a Saturday of a holiday weekend and then on Tuesday morning are all ready to go with your letter exonerating her if you haven't already made up your mind.

   912. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:30 PM (#5557055)
Yet somehow, the previous 44 Presidents managed to pull it off.
There were only 43 previous presidents. HTH.
   913. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:31 PM (#5557056)
Of course he ignores it when people mention that Bill Clinton and Barack Obama had very good overall stock market performance
Yep, there's no world in which Trump is a competent POTUS because of financial market performance that can deny Clinton and Obama were superior.

So SBB pretends not to see those posts. There is literally no response.

And then claims *everyone else* is shaded by partisanship.
   914. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5557057)
Trump is impulsive and could seek to act on incomplete and/or incorrect information. When those actions include nukes, that's bad.


Especially when he thinks things like “We have missiles that can knock out a missile in the air 97 percent of the time, and if you send two of them, it’s going to get knocked down.” about our ballistic missile defense systems ...
   915. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:33 PM (#5557060)
James Comey lied and leaked and totally protected Hillary Clinton. He was the best thing that ever happened to her!
Right up until the October Surprise, anyway...
   916. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:35 PM (#5557063)
As to the underlying story, it's not news that Comey wasn't serious about recommending prosecution. As I noted at the time and since, you don't interview the target on a Saturday of a holiday weekend and then on Tuesday morning are all ready to go with your letter exonerating her if you haven't already made up your mind.
That doesn't make any sense. You don't interview the target until after you have otherwise nearly completed your investigation; you want to be fully informed before the interview begins so you can catch them in any lies. (Under federal law, that's always the easiest crime to prosecute, remember.). So, yeah, if the investigation is nearly complete, then you've already likely made up your mind. But that in no way suggests that you had made up your mind before the investigation began; it just means you made up your mind before interviewing the target. (And, the fact that you made up your mind before interviewing the target does not mean that you could not change your mind if the target said something to warrant that.)
   917. madvillain Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:37 PM (#5557066)
Wow, FBI confirms report that James Comey drafted letter exonerating Crooked Hillary Clinton long before investigation was complete. Many..
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017

...people not interviewed, including Clinton herself. Comey stated under oath that he didn't do this-obviously a fix? Where is Justice Dept?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017

As it has turned out, James Comey lied and leaked and totally protected Hillary Clinton. He was the best thing that ever happened to her!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 18, 2017


It's just disheartening that his man is the leader of the free world. We are led by a man that holds grudges long passed their expiration date, has paranoid delusions, and that is utterly incapable of big picture thinking.
   918. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5557069)
That doesn't make any sense. You don't interview the target until after you have otherwise nearly completed your investigation; you want to be fully informed before the interview begins so you can catch them in any lies. (Under federal law, that's always the easiest crime to prosecute, remember.). So, yeah, if the investigation is nearly complete, then you've already likely made up your mind. But that in no way suggests that you had made up your mind before the investigation began; it just means you made up your mind before interviewing the target. (And, the fact that you made up your mind before interviewing the target does not mean that you could not change your mind if the target said something to warrant that.)


Nothing prevents you from asking the critical questions to her and then taking some time afterwards to follow up by investigating her answers.

The intent issue itself is something that could have been further explored.
   919. BrianBrianson Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:44 PM (#5557071)
The President is very much a figurehead - he wields no real power whatsoever. He is apparently chosen by the government, but the qualities he is required to display are not those of leadership but those of finely judged outrage. For this reason the President is always a controversial choice, always an infuriating but fascinating character. His job is not to wield power but to draw attention away from it.

An orange sash is what the President of the Galaxy traditionally wears.

On those criteria Zaphod Beeblebrox is one of the most successful Presidents the Galaxy has ever had. He spent two of his ten Presidential years in prison for fraud. Very very few people realize that the President and the Government have virtually no power at all, and of these very few people only six know whence ultimate political power is wielded. Most of the others secretly believe that the ultimate decision-making process is handled by a computer. They couldn't be more wrong.
   920. Shredder Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5557073)
And Hillary apparently outright lied to the loved ones of the Benghazi deceased, according to direct testimony by said loved ones.
She didn't lie, that's just what she heard "some people" were saying. You'll have to ask the generals.
   921. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5557072)
Here on Earth we all realize that there is only a loose correlation between the various financial markets and the economic health of the nation, and also that Presidents don't actually have all that much to do with the economic health of the nation, but hey any port in a storm.
I don't think that's a perfect characterization. He's generally saying that if Trump's presidency was really a dumpster fire, an existential risk to the US, that the VIX and SPY would reflect it. Which seems like a reasonable argument. it's definitely counter-intuitive that the VIX would be behaving as it has over the last year.

Not only is it at or near all-time lows, and holding there over a very long period of time--indicating a complacency that has almost never before been seen in the market (really!)--but it's doing it while we have a president who is doing everything he can to cause trouble, with a congress that can't find it's own arse. We're a week away from the longest period of "nothing happening" in the market, ever, and it started the day before the election, so it's hard to credibly claim that Trump isn't partly responsible. imagine if he ever actually accomplished something!

Of course it also started a week after the hated Cubs won the world series, so it could be related to that as well. All hell could break out tomorrow if they are eliminated tonight. And of course the record we are (probably) about to break was almost immediately followed by a 38% stock market crash over three years; it will be interesting to see if he continues to quote these metrics when the market changes.
   922. Srul Itza Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5557074)
The guy is a human cockroach.


You're damned lucky cockroaches can't sue for libel.
   923. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:51 PM (#5557076)
It's just disheartening that his man is the leader of the free world. We are led by a man that holds grudges long passed their expiration date, has paranoid delusions, and that is utterly incapable of big picture thinking.

None of which means anything to Trump's apologists and enablers, who operate on the principle that the enemy of their enemy is by definition their friend. They'd likely vote for Jean-Marie Le Pen over a Democrat if it ever were to come down to that.
   924. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:53 PM (#5557077)
How do you read anything at that site? It won't let me read the text, it continually jumps to the bottom of the page to show me the video ad. I tried about 20 times to scroll up to read the text, and every time I did, the page jumped to the bottom to put the ad on screen.


Yeah - I'm betting that you're using firefox? The way they baked in their ad server widgets is particularly awful with firefox - it's also bad if you're running older ios versions (at least on an ipad).

Chrome is somewhat better... not my technical bailiwick, but I think the problem is that the ad's controller isn't properly managed (or IS properly managed, depending on your perspective about ad lciks...)
   925. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 18, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5557078)
Nothing prevents you from asking the critical questions to her and then taking some time afterwards to follow up by investigating her answers.

The intent issue itself is something that could have been further explored.
No, nothing prevents him from doing any of that - unless he already had all of his answers, her interview confirmed everything he thought he knew, and he felt further investigation was a waste of time and money.
   926. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:03 PM (#5557080)
Nor did you and yours really think Bush "pulled it off" -- he was portrayed as unfeeling to that woman who lost a son (*) and routinely suffered the slings and arrows of similar criticisms.

(*) Cindy Johnson, maybe?


It's interesting that you bring this up -- you're thinking of Cindy Sheehan -- because actually, I was going to bring up the same thing. Of course, since my mouth isn't surgically attached to an orange dong, my perspective might differ a bit.

In any case, per Sheehan herself - when he did the condolence call (or more accurately, met with her and other families) -

"We haven't been happy with the way the war has been handled. The president has changed his reasons for being over there every time a reason is proven false or an objective reached." She also stated that President Bush was "sincere about wanting freedom for the Iraqis. I know [he] feels pain for our loss. And I know he's a man of God.


She had only started down the path of becoming rather infamous for anti-war activity.... including, later, of course -- doing the "Camp Casey" thing outside of Bush's ranch.

And you know what Bush did/how he responded, REGARDLESS -- he (or rather the WH) gave pro forma statements about feeling for her loss. Period. Full-stop. Not "well, Bill Clinton didn't call". Not "LIARS! LIARS AND ENEMIES AND FAKE NEWS!"

Because this is what people who meet a basic human standard do... I have zero love for Bush. The Iraq war was a debacle, a bad idea, poorly executed, nakedly marketed and sold.

Sheehan certainly made the news -- when a gold star mom camps out at a President's ranch to protest a war, it will inevitably make the news.

But - because however addled or poor a President he may have been - W was at least capable of recognizing that it's in extremely poor taste to get into some kind of rhetorical mano a mano with a grieving mother.

   927. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:05 PM (#5557081)
(Under federal law, that's always the easiest crime to prosecute, remember.).


No, it's not, and in fact it's one of the hardest to prosecute. The number of lies told dwarfs the number of successful 1001 and perjury prosecutions by orders of magnitude.

But that in no way suggests that you had made up your mind before the investigation began; it just means you made up your mind before interviewing the target.


There's nothing wrong with interviewing the target last, and nothing wrong with having a working theory of the case when you do that would encompass whether you think they're going to get hit.

But the investigation was totally tanked, nonetheless, particularly on the intent issue. The interview of Hillary on that should have been far more than a few hours on a Saturday. The case essentially turns on the intent issue, particularly under Comey's preposterous reading of the relevant statute, and there were a number of documents and other testimony that went directly to that issue. No way you can get through all that, with any kind of thorough questioning, in a few hours.

And it should have been a grand jury investigation, not an FBI agent investigation with 302s as the result. It was tanked.
   928. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:08 PM (#5557083)
But - because however addled or poor a President he may have been - W was at least capable of recognizing that it's in extremely poor taste to get into some kind of rhetorical mano a mano with a grieving mother.
Because he knew that his supporters - the GOP of 2004 - would be appalled if he did.

Clapper, Ray, and the rest of GOP v.2017? They have no morals.
   929. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:09 PM (#5557084)
David skirted the issue of whether it's normal practice to draft such a statement months before interviewing the target.

Indeed, why even draft such a statement until the investigation is over?

   930. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:11 PM (#5557085)
Working drafts of investigative findings aren't terribly abnormal. (*) The FBI head drafting his own seems highly abnormal. He's not a day-to-day investigator or writer.

A draft certainly shouldn't be finalized until the investigation is over, so the question becomes whether the draft was finalized and/or changed after Hillary's "interview."

(*) In law enforcement agencies like the SEC, a detailed memo is presented to the full commission whenever enforcement action is recommended. Staff do those. Your better fake lawyers would typically work on them as the investigation is progressing, as opposing to waiting until everything is done and then trying to remember things from 12-18 months before. I'm not entirely sure what the context would be within the FBI for a "draft statement" to be prepared. My guess would be that in high profile cases where the director has to sign off, that the director or his close staff would like to see a written summary of what the investigation found, what action is being recommended, and why. Nor, of course, is the FBI or Comey the final decision maker -- Justice is. Whether the FBI typically prepares a written recommendation for Justice, I don't know. If it does, we can take virtually certain notice that it's not the director doing the initial drafting.
   931. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:19 PM (#5557088)
Are you going to answer 906, Blanks?
   932. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:21 PM (#5557089)

Interesting article describing the mathematical flaws of the "Efficiency Gap" approach to evaluating partisan gerrymandering.

TL;DR: It doesn't work in states with only a few districts; it doesn't actually lead to proportional results, but rather wants the majority party to do even better than their percent of the vote; it actually favors gerrymandering in the sense of building safe seats for incumbents.
   933. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:21 PM (#5557090)
Words from The Mnooch:


Steven Mnuchin has a stern warning for Congress: You could blow up the stock market if you fail to cut taxes.

The Treasury secretary, in the first episode of the “POLITICO Money” podcast, said Wall Street’s big runup following the election of President Donald Trump is largely based on expectations of Congress passing a major tax-relief bill, and failure to do so could have significant consequences. The Dow is now up about 25 percent since the election, a fact Trump tweets about frequently.

“There is no question that the rally in the stock market has baked into it reasonably high expectations of us getting tax cuts and tax reform done,” Mnuchin said in the interview. “To the extent we get the tax deal done, the stock market will go up higher. But there’s no question in my mind that if we don’t get it done you’re going to see a reversal of a significant amount of these gains.”

If that sounds like a threat to Republicans — and perhaps some Democrats — to pass a tax bill, that’s because it is. In fact, some analysts on Wall Street say that if a tax overhaul falters, a big correction on Wall Street could help push the legislative process back on track.

“If it suddenly looked like a tax bill was dead, stocks could sell off sharply. Then the blame game would begin,” said Greg Valliere of Horizon Investments. “I think Trump would hammer hard at Democrats, blaming their intransigence for a stock market sell-off. A half-dozen Democrats in the Senate, fearing a defeat next year, would waver.”

...

Mnuchin also changed course somewhat in his defense of the GOP’s tax blueprint, conceding it would slash taxes on the wealthy but that doing so was unavoidable because rich people already pay so much in tax.

“The top 20 percent of the people pay 95 percent of the taxes. The top 10 percent of the people pay 81 percent of the taxes,” he said. “So when you’re cutting taxes across the board, it’s very hard not to give tax cuts to the wealthy with tax cuts to the middle class. The math, given how much you are collecting, is just hard to do.”

Mnuchin also defended eliminating the estate tax even though estates of up to $11 million per couple are already shielded from the levy. “The estate tax is somewhat of an economic issue and somewhat of a philosophical issue,” he said. “People pay taxes once. Why should people have to pay taxes again when they die?”


Politico
   934. BrianBrianson Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:22 PM (#5557091)
Are you going to answer 906, Blanks?


Deny the obviousness of it is your modern liberal derangement, symptomatic of TEH DECLINE (TM).

No need for him to spend multiple paragraphs to say that.
   935. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:24 PM (#5557093)
Man, still on about Hillary? You guys need a breath of fresh air, perhaps a new hobby.
   936. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:26 PM (#5557096)
Are you going to answer 906, Blanks?


?

It was answered in 921, which reiterates what I've said about it any number of times.
   937. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:26 PM (#5557097)
The intent issue itself is something that could have been further explored.
You can determine intent by

(a) Having the target directly express her intent;
(b) Finding a document or witness that expressly states her intent; or
(c) Inferring intent from the circumstances.

The second and third can be evaluated before interviewing her; only the first one turns on the interview with her. On the assumption that she wasn't going to suddenly break down and confess, Perry Mason style¹, it didn't seem very likely that the interview would lead to much of anything.



¹Not that he confessed, of course, but he elicited confessions.
   938. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:27 PM (#5557098)
It was answered in 921, which reiterates what I've said about it any number of times.


I want YOUR answer how both the stock and bond market support your thesis of Il Duce's greatness.

C'mon. You can do it.
   939. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5557102)
And you know what Bush did/how he responded, REGARDLESS -- he (or rather the WH) gave pro forma statements about feeling for her loss. Period. Full-stop. Not "well, Bill Clinton didn't call". Not "LIARS! LIARS AND ENEMIES AND FAKE NEWS!"
Actually, here's Bush's personal response:
However, Bush accepted her comments — in fact, he even welcomed them as part of her constitutional rights. He met the media outside the ranch, and held an impromptu press conference to address the issue.

“I grieve for every death,” he said. “It breaks my heart to think about a family weeping over the loss of a loved one.”

When a reporter pressed Bush specifically about Sheehan, he replied earnestly.

“Part of my duty as the president is to meet those who have lost a loved one. I sympathise with Mrs. Sheehan,” Bush said. “She feels strongly about her position. She has every right in the world to say what she believes. This is America.”
He never once said anything bad about her, or whined that she was being unfair to him. (He did refuse to meet with her a second time, after her political activism reached a crescendo, but he still never said anything negative.)
   940. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:36 PM (#5557103)
He never once said anything bad about her, or whined that she was being unfair to him. (He did refuse to meet with her a second time, after her political activism reached a crescendo, but he still never said anything negative.)


Perhaps Il Duce's greatest achievement has been to make me miss W's sober, thoughtful leadership.
   941. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5557105)
David skirted the issue of whether it's normal practice to draft such a statement months before interviewing the target.

Indeed, why even draft such a statement until the investigation is over?
I don't know any lawyer who waits until the end of a matter to begin drafting papers about it. When I'm preparing a motion, I don't wait until all depositions are complete. Of course you write a draft in advance, filling in as many details as possible. It's subject to revision if contrary facts emerge, but most of the time you're just going to plug in a few extra sentences about what you found afterwards. )
   942. Shredder Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:38 PM (#5557106)
“People pay taxes once. Why should people have to pay taxes again when they die?”
People don't pay taxes when they die. People don't do anything when they die, because they're dead. Unless Mnuchin knows of people who have been able to transfer their wealth to an heretofore unknown afterlife, no dead person has ever paid a nickle in taxes.
   943. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:39 PM (#5557107)
Yeah - I'm betting that you're using firefox?


Safari.
   944. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:44 PM (#5557110)
The second and third can be evaluated before interviewing her; only the first one turns on the interview with her. On the assumption that she wasn't going to suddenly break down and confess, Perry Mason style¹, it didn't seem very likely that the interview would lead to much of anything.


Actually it was certainly a curiosity whether she'd stick to the lies she'd told publicly via her changing stories, or if she'd just confess to what was already proven.

It seems she decided not to tell the same lies during the interview as she had been telling to the public. Good on her, I guess. It's faint praise.

It certainly helped that she couldn't tell all three stories at once to the FBI, so she decided to go with a fourth one: the version that aligned with the evidence collected to that point.
   945. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 18, 2017 at 02:51 PM (#5557111)
EDIT: Yikes, let me try that again.
EDIT2: Third time's a charm?
TL;DR: It doesn't work in states with only a few districts; it doesn't actually lead to proportional results, but rather wants the majority party to do even better than their percent of the vote; it actually favors gerrymandering in the sense of building safe seats for incumbents.
Or, you could just post the actual conclusion from the actual authors:
<b>The Wisconsin plaintiffs are not asking the court to enshrine
   946. Nose army. Beef diaper? (CoB) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5557116)
I haven't seen any of our Northern neighbors posting today.

I can only assume that it is a national day of mourning.
   947. BrianBrianson Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5557117)
With Mr. Lahey pushing up #### daisies, it's a month of mourning.
   948. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:09 PM (#5557120)
Some demon isn't allowing me to post #945.

The conclusion in the paper DMN linked to isn't the damnation he wants us to believe it is. The authors think the "Efficiency Gap" is important work that should be built on.
   949. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:29 PM (#5557129)
I can only assume that it is a national day of mourning.


There is video out there of Prime Minister Trudeau openly crying while talking about the passing of Gord Downie, as he was good friends with the singer.
   950. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:35 PM (#5557134)
Apparently, "Ask John Kelly! He'll back me up!" is apparently Trump's latest and favoritest excuse and ass-covering.

EDIT: It's essentially "But GRANDMA SAID I COULD!"
   951. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:42 PM (#5557139)
Perhaps Il Duce's greatest achievement has been to make me miss W's sober, thoughtful leadership.


Obama looks better and better in retrospect. I knew I would miss him, but man I really do. What a great president, certainly in comparison to the ones before and after.
   952. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:45 PM (#5557144)
Obama looks better and better in retrospect. I knew I would miss him, but man I really do. What a great president, certainly in comparison to the ones before and after.


Lol. And they call SBB a troll.
   953. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:48 PM (#5557145)
WH saying there is no recording of the call. I think that for the most part, Trump's inelegance is Not News. However, I guess I just assumed all calls would be recorded. Is this not the case? I mean, Alaska Airlines records all *their* calls, it's not hard.
   954. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:50 PM (#5557147)
What a great president

And they call SBB a troll.
Based on the stock market performance that SBB is so keen to cite, he would have to agree.
   955. Hot Wheeling American Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:52 PM (#5557150)
WH saying there is no recording of the call. I think that for the most part, Trump's inelegance is Not News. However, I guess I just assumed all calls would be recorded. Is this not the case? I mean, Alaska Airlines records all *their* calls, it's not hard.


Does this dude even use a secure cell phone? Of course, if not, then someone out there may have a recording...
   956. Shredder Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:55 PM (#5557156)
I mean, Alaska Airlines records all *their* calls, it's not hard.
Sure, but when their CEO clearly lies about something, then brags about "PROOF", and the alleged proof is just proof that he was lying, they probably destroy those recordings, then claim there was no recording. Just like the White House did here.

*Note - I'm kidding. I'm not actually alleging that the President recorded, then deleted the call.
   957. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:57 PM (#5557158)
WH saying there is no recording of the call. I think that for the most part, Trump's inelegance is Not News. However, I guess I just assumed all calls would be recorded. Is this not the case? I mean, Alaska Airlines records all *their* calls, it's not hard.


Recording WH conversations. What could go wrong?
   958. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:57 PM (#5557159)
The conclusion in the paper DMN linked to isn't the damnation he wants us to believe it is. The authors think the "Efficiency Gap" is important work that should be built on.
And as a matter of political science, sure, that makes sense. Build on that all you want. But as a legal doctrine, no. It's being sold publicly as a magic bullet that finally resolves the problem of lack of manageable judicable standards for evaluating the constitutionality of partisan mapdrawing.¹ Now, they are right that the plaintiffs in Wisconsin are not asking the court to enshrine EG², but that's part of the problem. "Here's a formula that has flaws but is something to build on" is not a basis for the resolution of a constitutional issue. An actual (non-flawed) formula might be able to resolve that issue, but giving a bunch of different methods to judges is really just a fancier way of saying, "Judges, strike down maps if they seem bad to you," which is exactly what the Court has rejected for decades as a valid approach.



¹In fact, the authors note that, as well: "
   959. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 03:59 PM (#5557164)

Apparently, "Ask John Kelly! He'll back me up!" is apparently Trump's latest and favoritest excuse and ass-covering.
The worst part is, it's based on misdirection. Kelly's son was married. Therefore, we would expect Obama to make the call to his widow, not his father.
   960. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:00 PM (#5557165)
And as a matter of political science, sure, that makes sense. Build on that all you want.


Weird. I said as much as you objected strenuously. I never opined on the legal merits one way or another, just the mathematical and political science elegance. Good to see you now agree. We shall see what the SCOTUS has to say legally, of course.
   961. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:02 PM (#5557168)
Obama looks better and better in retrospect. I knew I would miss him, but man I really do. What a great president, certainly in comparison to the ones before and after.


Vs Trump? Absolutely... I'm a bit more willing to say that Bush vs Obama is a matter of tastes (policy, culture, and demeanor). Obviously, my own personal tastes in that regard certainly put Obama several echelons above Bush - but I can at least intellectually understand the inverse.

Trump, though...

   962. Spahn Insane, stimulus-funded BurlyMan™ Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:05 PM (#5557171)
People don't pay taxes when they die. People don't do anything when they die, because they're dead. Unless Mnuchin knows of people who have been able to transfer their wealth to an heretofore unknown afterlife, no dead person has ever paid a nickle in taxes.

Right, but that's the dishonest framing that's used to foment opposition to the estate tax. It's the *recipient* of the wealth who's taxed, not the deceased (which is why the argument that the estate tax effectuates "double taxation" is horseshit. It's effectively income to the person receiving it [key distinction being, real income is actually earned].). And of course, the limitation of the estate tax to high-value estates is also glossed over, allowing for horror stories of struggling family farmers leaving nothing for their heirs because of that mean ol' estate tax to take root.
   963. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:05 PM (#5557173)
I'm a bit more willing to say that Bush vs Obama is a matter of tastes (policy, culture, and demeanor)


Well, that and lying to get us into a trillion dollar disaster in Iraq.
   964. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:07 PM (#5557174)
Here on Earth we all realize that there is only a loose correlation between the various financial markets and the economic health of the nation, and also that Presidents don't actually have all that much to do with the economic health of the nation, but hey any port in a storm.

Strange that neither Bitter Mouse nor anyone else on Team Blue pointed this out on Election Night, or the morning after, when OTP was awash in Krugman-like predictions of economic collapse and a stock market crash. Must have still been in shock.
   965. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:08 PM (#5557175)
Obama looks better and better in retrospect. I knew I would miss him, but man I really do. What a great president, certainly in comparison to the ones before and after.


I'd call him an OK president & a first rate human being. Like Carter but actually effective.
   966. Ray (RDP) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5557177)
Well, that and lying to get us into a trillion dollar disaster in Iraq.


Which is why it would be extremely difficult for Trump to end up as a worse president than W.

It would basically take North Korea nuking LA or something.
   967. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:09 PM (#5557179)
I'm a bit more willing to say that Bush vs Obama is a matter of tastes


While it takes many years after a President to fully rate them, most presidential scholars rate W ... poorly. That might change I admit. But yeah, Trump? Train wreck.
   968. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5557180)
The worst part is, it's based on misdirection. Kelly's son was married. Therefore, we would expect Obama to make the call to his widow, not his father.


Ah, good catch. So do we know if Obama called the widow?

Say what you will about Trump, he's an excellent bullshitter and obfuscator. But that's the point the Trump notdefenders miss. It's because of that that we continually point out his bullshit and obfuscations.

Here's another.

Trump claimed he's called the family of every service member killed in action on his watch, and Obama didn't.

Here's the truth.

When pressed on this, because many families of killed servicemen this year have come forward nad said they were not contacted, Sanders said that the President meant that he called every family who's information was passed on to him by the Pentagon office of protocal and vetted by the WH Office of Military Affairs.

So he gets to claim he called all of them, when he didn't, and gets his surrogates to cover for his misstatement, while "Obama didn't" just hangs there like a giant matzo ball.
   969. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5557181)
Obama looks better and better in retrospect. I knew I would miss him, but man I really do. What a great president, certainly in comparison to the ones before and after.


To Sir ...

With Love!!!!!!!!!
   970. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:10 PM (#5557183)
Apparently, "Ask John Kelly! He'll back me up!" is apparently Trump's latest and favoritest excuse and ass-covering.

The worst part is, it's based on misdirection. Kelly's son was married. Therefore, we would expect Obama to make the call to his widow, not his father.


I feel relatively safe speculating that the numerous stories about Trump chafing under Kelly's babysitting have lots of truth to them - and as much as Trump at least grudgingly accepts that it's not really feasible to can Kelly, this a rather Trumpian way to exert his dominance and exact his vengeance... Making Kelly give pablum, tacit cover to him - even if by silence - on matters that probably do pain Kelly would be right up Trump's alley.
   971. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:11 PM (#5557184)
Weird. I said as much as you objected strenuously. I never opined on the legal merits one way or another, just the mathematical and political science elegance. Good to see you now agree. We shall see what the SCOTUS has to say legally, of course.
I see you're doing that thing again where you pretend the person you're talking to changed his position to agree with you (even if you don't use SBB's "concession accepted.") You have completely misrepresented the earlier discussion, which was not about whether EG is an interesting conceptual idea, but about whether it provides any useful answers in the context of this litigation (or the legal issue more generally), particularly given that the VRA actually requires gerrymandering, and neutral principles of districting will lead to partisan imbalance.
   972. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:13 PM (#5557186)
People don't pay taxes when they die. People don't do anything when they die, because they're dead. Unless Mnuchin knows of people who have been able to transfer their wealth to an heretofore unknown afterlife, no dead person has ever paid a nickle in taxes.

Right, but that's the dishonest framing that's used to foment opposition to the estate tax. It's the *recipient* of the wealth who's taxed, not the deceased
That's actually incorrect. It's the estate, not the recipient(s), that is taxed.
   973. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:13 PM (#5557187)
Say what you will about Trump, he's an excellent bullshitter and obfuscator.


He's terrible at it. If he was good, he wouldn't be such buffoon & a joke. He'd actually sucessfully pull the wool over people's eyes.

   974. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:15 PM (#5557189)
which was not about whether EG is an interesting conceptual idea


BS. I linked the article and said it was interesting (elegant, whatever exact word I used). I never opined on it legally. You attacked.
   975. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:16 PM (#5557190)
WH saying there is no recording of the call. I think that for the most part, Trump's inelegance is Not News. However, I guess I just assumed all calls would be recorded. Is this not the case? I mean, Alaska Airlines records all *their* calls, it's not hard.

I didn't think many would be in favor of government officials routinely taping their phone calls with ordinary citizens. Apparently, I was wrong about that, having underestimated how far some people's knee-jerk anti-Trumpism would take them.
   976. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:16 PM (#5557192)
He'd actually sucessfully pull the wool over people's eyes.


He was successful enough. Lotta idiots out there.
   977. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:17 PM (#5557193)
He's terrible at it. If he was good, he wouldn't be such buffoon & a joke. He'd actually sucessfully pull the wool over people's eyes.


He's got people talking about calls to the families of the dead rather than why they are dead in the first place. He's got people talking about whether or not Obama called Kelly rather than Kelly's daughter in law. He's got people talking about NFL players disrespecting our veterans (hint, they are not) rather than his pathetic response to the disaster in PR.
   978. Random Transaction Generator Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5557194)
I didn't think many would be in favor of government officials routinely taping their phone calls with ordinary citizens.


Has anyone said it would be a good idea?
The only reason it came up is because Trump announced he had proof of what he said.
What other way than a recording (or a corroborating statement) could you have "proof"?
   979. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:18 PM (#5557195)

And the new Trump story du jour: Trump offered a grieving military father $25,000 in a call, but didn’t follow through:
President Trump, in a personal phone call to a grieving military father, offered him $25,000 and said he would direct his staff to establish an online fundraiser for the family, but neither happened, the father said.

Chris Baldridge, the father of Army Cpl. Dillon Baldridge, told The Washington Post that Trump called him at his home in Zebulon, N.C., a few weeks after his 22-year-old son and two fellow soldiers were gunned down by an Afghan police officer in a suspected insider attack June 10. Their phone conversation lasted about 15 minutes, Baldridge said, and centered for a time on the father’s struggle with the manner in which his son was killed.

[...]

In his call with Trump, Baldridge, a construction worker, expressed frustration with the military’s survivor benefits program. Because his ex-wife was listed as their son’s beneficiary, she was expected to receive the Pentagon’s $100,000 death gratuity — even though “I can barely rub two nickels together,” he told Trump.


The president’s response shocked him.

“He said, ‘I’m going to write you a check out of my personal account for $25,000,’ and I was just floored,” Baldridge said. “I could not believe he was saying that, and I wish I had it recorded because the man did say this. He said, ‘No other president has ever done something like this,’ but he said, ‘I’m going to do it.’ “
The quote rings very very true.

The WH has now called the guy a liar, although of course they blame it on the media: "But White House spokeswoman Lindsay Walters said in a statement Wednesday afternoon, “The check has been sent. It’s disgusting that the media is taking something that should be recognized as a generous and sincere gesture, made privately by the President, and using it to advance the media’s biased agenda."

("The check has been sent" doesn't, of course, say whether it was sent today, after the story was published.)
   980. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:19 PM (#5557196)
I didn't think many would be in favor of government officials routinely taping their phone calls with ordinary citizens. Apparently, I was wrong about that, having underestimated how far some people's knee-jerk anti-Trumpism would take them.


No, you were right. One is not many to most people. Pep Tech does not speak for anyone here but himself. If a bunch of people sign onto that, and none have and several have pushed back, then you can be all indignant, but not until.
   981. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:20 PM (#5557197)
He was successful enough. Lotta idiots out there.


It takes no skill to fool idiots -- which every Trump voter is. It takes skill to consistent & successfully bullshlt and obfuscate to non idiots. That's a skill he doesn't have. Bill C had it; he was damn good at it. Trump isn't.
   982. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:20 PM (#5557198)
Apparently, "Ask John Kelly! He'll back me up!" is apparently Trump's latest and favoritest excuse and ass-covering.


So we're to assume, then, that the "unplugging" idea went in the garbage can?

   983. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5557200)
Apparently, "Ask John Kelly! He'll back me up!" is apparently Trump's latest and favoritest excuse and ass-covering.
The worst part is, it's based on misdirection. Kelly's son was married. Therefore, we would expect Obama to make the call to his widow, not his father.
My take on Kelly backing up Trump (this time) is that he could serve as a witness to yesterday's call. But yeah, BITD it wouldn't likely have been to Kelly directly, unless generals get that kind of perk^.

^ In the world of Trump, receiving a direct call from the POTUS (regardless of circumstance) would be a "perk".
   984. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:22 PM (#5557201)
It takes no skill to fool idiots -- which every Trump voter is. It takes skill to consistent & successfully bullshlt and obfuscate to non idiots. Bill C had it; he was damn good at it.


Yeah, we were BS'd and fooled ... but at least our guy was a good BSer!!

LOLOL.
   985. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:24 PM (#5557202)
Hey Blanks,

Still waiting for your answer to 906.

   986. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:24 PM (#5557203)
I didn't think


You knew what you signed up for, Clapper the Trumpkin...
   987. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:25 PM (#5557205)
So we're to assume, then, that the "unplugging" idea went in the garbage can?


You'll have to refresh my memory...
   988. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:26 PM (#5557206)
You have completely misrepresented the earlier discussion, which was not about whether EG is an interesting conceptual idea, but about whether it provides any useful answers in the context of this litigation (or the legal issue more generally), particularly given that the VRA actually requires gerrymandering, and neutral principles of districting will lead to partisan imbalance.

That's true. Bitter Mouse specifically suggested that the so-called efficiency gap standard would be useful to the Supreme Court as a measure of prohibited partisan gerrymandering. How he can say that he didn't address the legal issues is beyond me, but this is the guy who claimed he was using the "human definition" rather than admit he had been wrong. Not a good look.
   989. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:27 PM (#5557207)
You'll have to refresh my memory...


The suggestion to get off the Twitter feed and social media and not follow the minute-by-minute "updates" about ... a phone call.

You know ... unplug. You're obsessing over ... a phone call.
   990. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:29 PM (#5557208)
I didn't think many would be in favor of government officials routinely taping their phone calls with ordinary citizens. Apparently, I was wrong about that, having underestimated how far some people's knee-jerk anti-Trumpism would take them.

No, you were right. One is not many to most people. Pep Tech does not speak for anyone here but himself.
Certainly true, and I wasn't intending to advocate recording all OO conversations.

Let me clarify: I'd be surprised if anything through the generic WH switchboard wasn't recorded. Maybe I'm thinking of incoming calls. Which this wasn't...
   991. Rickey! the first of his name Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:32 PM (#5557210)
It's just disheartening that his man is the leader of the free world.


He's not. He's the current occupant of the Oval Office due to the incipient stupidity of the American electorate. Angela Merkel is the leader of the free world.
   992. Zonk Tormundbane Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:35 PM (#5557214)
The suggestion to get off the Twitter feed and social media and not follow the minute-by-minute "updates" about ... a phone call.


How cute... you think people actually pay your "advice" any mind.

Fairly certain that any advice you offer anyone on any matter ends up exactly wherever you put it. So - if you put it in the garbage to begin with, sure, that's probably where it remains.
   993. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:42 PM (#5557218)
You have completely misrepresented the earlier discussion, which was not about whether EG is an interesting conceptual idea, but about whether it provides any useful answers in the context of this litigation (or the legal issue more generally), particularly given that the VRA actually requires gerrymandering, and neutral principles of districting will lead to partisan imbalance.


That's true. Bitter Mouse specifically suggested that the so-called efficiency gap standard would be useful to the Supreme Court as a measure of prohibited partisan gerrymandering. How he can say that he didn't address the legal issues is beyond me, but this is the guy who claimed he was using the "human definition" rather than admit he had been wrong. Not a good look.


To the surprise of no one Clapper is a liar. Here is my original post:

1239. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 11, 2017 at 03:48 PM (#5550150)
Candy for liberals - The Supreme Court really might deal a huge blow to gerrymandering

Ezra explains that in the past, the Supreme Court has ruled on gerrymandering but never could come up with a solution to the problem. This case seems to be different, he says, because, “It does seem like for the first time that there is a manageable standard. It looks like there might be a 5-4 majority for it, and this is in front of the Supreme Court in a pretty robust way.”




There are some nice links in the article to explainers on the subject. Personally I have no clue as to how likely a favorable ruling is - that is more of a legal issue, and anyway it seems to depend on one single Justice, so who knows? Still I like to have a background in a potentially important subject such as this, so I have more understanding when the ruling does come down.


So yeah, I will accept apologies now. Thanks.
   994. Blanks for Nothing, Larvell Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:47 PM (#5557222)
How cute... you think people actually pay your "advice" any mind.


It's up to you. If you want to reject it, reject it.
   995. Traderdave Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:49 PM (#5557224)
C'mon, Four Flusher. Tell us your grand theory of how both the stock and bond markets back up Trump's awesomeness.
   996. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:52 PM (#5557227)
I'll have you know that I took Ray's advice and spent 30 minutes playing wiffle ball and throwing acorns with my son. Sadly, I don't think it made Donald Trump any less of a buffoon, but it was nice to get some fresh air.
   997. BrianBrianson Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:53 PM (#5557229)
That's actually incorrect. It's the estate, not the recipient(s), that is taxed.


Of all the things to tax, you'd think legal fictions would be the most popular choice
   998. PepTech Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:54 PM (#5557230)
The suggestion to get off the Twitter feed and social media and not follow the minute-by-minute "updates" about
Tell you what - provide any kind of coherent explanation by which "Trump is a cromulent POTUS because of the financial market performance" is true but "Obama and Clinton were better" is false, and I, for one, will lay off Trump for a month.

"Coherent" needs to be endorsed by at least two people who are verifiably not TGF, YC, OJ, RDP, and yourself.
   999. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2017 at 04:59 PM (#5557234)
I think SBB is correct to note that the buoyant markets are at least something of a feather in Trump's cap, and an indication that the big money managers of the earth do not consider him an existential threat to modern humanity or what have you. Anything beyond that is clear trolling.
   1000. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2017 at 05:00 PM (#5557235)
erg
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