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Monday, December 18, 2017

OTP 18 December 2018 - Lawlor / Fairfield Year in Review: Politics, baseball, football, hockey

However, we had some extremely bright spots this year. The Fairfield American Little League team went to Williamsport in the Little League World Series. This group of poised young men represented us well. They finished even better than the other recent Fairfield American teams who have been going to Williamsport on a regular basis. They finished third in the nation. The coaches and players said they had grown into a close-knit family.

This fall, the Fairfield Giant Football 10u team literally picked up the ball where baseball left off. When it was all over, they stood atop the mountain as the national champions. When practice began Aug. 1, their coaches started from the ground floor, as many players had never played organized football. In addition to the football skills, their coach, Mark Cirilli, stressed teammate skills. “The whole season was dedicated to learning about how to be a great teammate. Our chant was ‘One heart, one mind, one team.’ ” That chant and the teamwork that it inspired took them through an undefeated season and the Pop Warner National Championship.

 

So from a political standpoint I think we are going in for a rough patch for a while, but from a bigger picture, if the young men that represented Fairfield so well this year are any indication, the future is bright indeed.


(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 07:48 AM | 2518 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: football, little league, off-topic, politics

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   1. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 12:52 PM (#5594419)
Let's start with a round up.

Voters Increasingly Favor Democrats for Congress
A new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll finds Democrats leading Republicans in the generic congressional ballot by 11-points, 50% to 39%.

NBC News: ” The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.”


Trump Approval Slips Lower

The FiveThirtyEight polling average has Trump at a new low of 36.4% to 57.5%.


Leading up to ... ta da! Trump Plans Ambitious Campaign Schedule In 2018

Washington Post: “Trump’s political aides have met with 116 candidates for office in recent months, according to senior White House officials, seeking to become involved in Senate, House and gubernatorial races — and possibly contested Republican primaries as well.”

“The president has told advisers that he wants to travel extensively and hold rallies and that he is looking forward to spending much of 2018 campaigning. He has also told aides that the elections would largely determine what he can get done — and that he expects he would be blamed for losses, such as last week’s humiliating defeat that handed a Senate seat in Alabama to a Democrat for the first time in 25 years.”
   2. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 12:55 PM (#5594423)
Which Democrats run for President in '20? Which one wins the nomination?


   3. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:02 PM (#5594434)
Every current and former Democratic senator and governor is in the invisible primary right now, except Rod Blavgojevich. With Franken cut, I think Kamala Harris is the "best bet", but <5% to be the nominee. Realistically, far too early to make a probable guess of the nominee.
   4. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5594436)
From the old thread...


Speaking of trains, looks like Track's in trouble.


Sarah Palin's son arrested for domestic violence.

   5. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:03 PM (#5594437)
I support fully Trump campaigning far and wide for the GOP in 2018.

They've fallen inline as his lapdogs - it's only fair that they reap the.... benefits.
   6. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:04 PM (#5594438)
Which Democrats run for President in '20?


All of them.

Which one wins the nomination?


One of them.


Seriously though I am not sure. I think Sherrod Brown is the most likely to win the Democratic nomination, if I had to pick someone, but it could be any one of many. Kirsten Gillibrand and Amy Klobuchar are also possibilities. But yeah it could be many others as well.

I am bearish on the old guard such as Biden, and skeptical of Warren.

EDIT: Forgot about Kamala. She is a possible as well.
   7. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:05 PM (#5594439)
Which Democrats run for President in '20? Which one wins the nomination?


Trying to predict that 3 years early is a fools errand. In 2005, Obama was a first term Illinois state senator. In 2013, Trump was a reality TV host. In 1997, W was a first term Texas Governor. In 1985, Michael Dukakis was a first term Mass Governor.
   8. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:09 PM (#5594443)
EDIT: Forgot about Kamala. She is a possible as well.


As of today, she would be my choice.
   9. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:10 PM (#5594447)
I for one welcome our poverty stricken rioting nations.
   10. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:11 PM (#5594449)
I'd choose Brown over Kamala because he's vastly more experienced and the swing state thing.

But I'm not sure how much I like Brown.
   11. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:14 PM (#5594452)
This is what Reagan was doing in 1977. Remember when we had political leaders who could deliver actual thoughts in actual paragraphs? That didn't rely on divisiveness and fearmongering, but principled reflection on how to improve society?
The New Republican Party I envision will not be, and cannot, be one limited to the country club-big business image that, for reasons both fair and unfair, it is burdened with today. The New Republican Party I am speaking about is going to have room for the man and the woman in the factories, for the farmer, for the cop on the beat and the millions of Americans who may never have thought of joining our party before, but whose interests coincide with those represented by principled Republicanism.
I wonder what ol' Ron would make of where DJT has "led" the GOP.
Republican Rep. Duncan Hunter, an early and loyal Trump enthusiast, gave an uncommonly candid assessment of the president to a group of young Republicans at home in California recently.

“He’s an a--hole,” Duncan said, “but he’s our a--hole.” So reported his hometown San Diego Union-Tribune.
How far we've come!
   12. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:18 PM (#5594454)
This is what Reagan was doing in 1977.


Reagan is an exception to the rule. He was perhaps the most obvious runner/nomination getter for an out of power party. He was the clear front-runner the day after Ford lost to Carter.
   13. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5594456)
I could see John Hickenlooper giving it a go.
   14. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5594457)

Can't forget about Cory Booker.
   15. Swoboda is freedom Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:19 PM (#5594458)
I think NY Senator Kirsten Gillibrand will give it a go. At least try and get more name recognition for a later run.
   16. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:20 PM (#5594460)
Trying to predict that 3 years early is a fools errand. In 2005, Obama was a first term Illinois state senator.

True, but he was less than 14 months from announcing his candidacy, and Obama had almost certainly decided to make the run at least six months before that. Predictions are perilous, but those running in 2020 are preparing now, and I'd expect a slew of announcements and expressions of interest as soon as the 2018 dust settles.
   17. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:21 PM (#5594461)
The New Republican Party I envision will not be, and cannot, be one limited to the country club-big business image that, for reasons both fair and unfair, it is burdened with today. The New Republican Party I am speaking about is going to have room for the man and the woman in the factories, for the farmer, for the cop on the beat and the millions of Americans who may never have thought of joining our party before, but whose interests coincide with those represented by principled Republicanism.


Trump says the same ####, it's just not as polished.
   18. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:22 PM (#5594464)

Trump says the same ####, it's just not as polished.


I always heard that one cannot polish ####.
   19. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5594467)
I always heard that one cannot polish ####.


That's why you don't bother -- you just put a big, gold 'T' on the box.
   20. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:25 PM (#5594468)
True, but he was less than 14 months from announcing his candidacy, and Obama had almost certainly decided to make the run at least six months before that. Predictions are perilous, but those running in 2020 are preparing now, and I'd expect a slew of announcements and expressions of interest as soon as the 2018 dust settles.


I agree with all of this.

2020 is shaping up to be a pretty interesting election. Will GOP President Trump run? Will anyone try to Primary him, and if so how successfully?

Many interesting questions.
   21. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:26 PM (#5594469)
This is what Reagan was doing in 1977. Remember when we had political leaders who could deliver actual thoughts in actual paragraphs? That didn't rely on divisiveness and fearmongering, but principled reflection on how to improve society?

I'm old enough to remember how liberals felt about Reagan when he was running and during his presidency. They continually tried to paint him as an extremist, although the election returns may have eventually convinced some it was a fruitless task.
   22. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5594471)
2020 is shaping up to be a pretty interesting election. Will GOP President Trump run? Will anyone try to Primary him, and if so how successfully?


Will Trump primary Pence?
   23. GordonShumway Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:32 PM (#5594473)
Bill De Blasio is in Iowa this week, speaking at fundraisers there.
   24. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:36 PM (#5594475)
I'm old enough to remember how liberals felt about Reagan when he was running and during his presidency. They continually tried to paint him as an extremist
Reagan may have been criticized for "extremism" BITD, but no one, then or now, questioned his commitment to believing in something. Trump is an empty husk that believes in Trump, and has adopted/co-opted the GOP as the mechanism to support himself and his id. Are you OK with this, as long as you get your judges?
   25. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:36 PM (#5594476)
Will anyone try to Primary him, and if so how successfully?

John Kasich, and not terribly.

   26. dlf Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:37 PM (#5594478)
I'm old enough to remember how liberals felt about Reagan when he was running and during his presidency. They continually tried to paint him as an extremist ..


Both parties have done that with pretty much every nominee at least as far back as I can remember.

I think that this backfired tremendously with the rise of a true extreme candidate, DJT. Having cried wolf about Bob Dole or Mitt Romney, etc. (or from the other side, Walter Mondale or John Kerry, etc.) the public tuned out when there really was someone so tremendously far out of the norms.
   27. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:38 PM (#5594480)
Sounds about right....


On Friday, I noted that there is clearly a move afoot to fire Bob Mueller (sub req.). But it is less a conspiracy or planned course of action than a rising tide of fear and anger with different pro-Trump factions trying to delegitimize Mueller for its own sake and, if at all possible, goad President Trump into firing Mueller in a fit of impulse rage and fear – much as he did six months ago with James Comey. Paradoxically, Trump is himself part of the effort to ramp him into taking action. Chaos and fear are as much a part of it as planning. It’s more Lord of the Flies than Ocean’s Eleven. Still a key part of what is happening is not only that pro-Trump Republicans are trying to lay the groundwork for Mueller’s dismissal. They’re trying to goad Trump into taking the plunge. Because only the President can make this happen. Everything else is preparation and encouragement.


I'll reiterate my support for "Go For It".

The fresher Trumpkins are like Roy Moore at a jr high sleepover... fretting over vestiges of morality, trying on all sorts of excuses about various oddball reasons why it wouldn't be as unseemly as it is, telling yourselves whatever it is you tell yourselves... but in the end, you'll be feeling up the little girls.

So just go for it.
   28. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:42 PM (#5594483)

I'm old enough to remember how liberals felt about Reagan when he was running and during his presidency. They continually tried to paint him as an extremist,
Not to mention a senile old guy who just read off a teleprompter.
   29. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:46 PM (#5594486)
The Rock is going to also give it a go, from what I can tell.
   30. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:47 PM (#5594488)
True, but he was less than 14 months from announcing his candidacy, and Obama had almost certainly decided to make the run at least six months before that. Predictions are perilous, but those running in 2020 are preparing now, and I'd expect a slew of announcements and expressions of interest as soon as the 2018 dust settles.

As bold a prediction as you'll ever see in this space.
   31. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:48 PM (#5594489)
So, an honest question for the non-liberals here. When you see liberals speak wistfully about Reagan or GWB, what's your reaction?
   32. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:55 PM (#5594495)
Trying to predict that 3 years early is a fools errand. In 2005, Obama was a first term Illinois state senator.

True, but he was less than 14 months from announcing his candidacy, and Obama had almost certainly decided to make the run at least six months before that.
Which would still be 8 months beyond where we are now. And doesn't change the fact that even if Obama was considering a run this early in the cycle no one on the OTP board could've picked him out of a lineup, let alone named him as a POTUS wannabe.
   33. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5594499)
When you see liberals speak wistfully about Reagan or GWB, what's your reaction?

That 1200 calories a day is not 3000 calories a day, but neither is it 200 calories a day. Conservatives may want to make hay over the laments for those we didn't like, but it is still a valid lament.

I was randomly reading through a 2012 OTP thread last night (had been looking for something about Russert and happened upon it) and the debates are far, far, far more interesting on immigration, healthcare, etc. The staleness of Trump is like a vapid orange haze suppressing decent ideas.

One may never have liked swimming in muddy water, but it still beats swimming in actual shit.
   34. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:58 PM (#5594500)
And doesn't change the fact that even if Obama was considering a run this early in the cycle no one on the OTP board could've picked him out of a lineup, let alone named him as a POTUS wannabe.

That's an exaggeration. I watched this happen, and I wasn't alone. Obama became a rockstar before he even won his Senate seat.
   35. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:59 PM (#5594501)
Which would still be 8 months beyond where we are now. And doesn't change the fact that even if Obama was considering a run this early in the cycle no one on the OTP board could've picked him out of a lineup, let alone named him as a POTUS wannabe.
Obama gave the keynote at the 2004 convention. The very fact that he was chosen shows that he was already on the fast track, and the speech was very well received by Democrats, making him a top prospect for those who follow politics.

EDIT: Darn it, Coke to the nonstinky fish.
   36. Joyful Calculus Instructor Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:59 PM (#5594502)
I am bearish on the old guard such as Biden, and skeptical of Warren.


I saw an interview with Biden on "The View" recently. I fear he might be in the early stages of dementia. He talked about Doug Jones' victory over Luther Strange and then had to be reminded that Jones was running against Roy Moore. That's why I hope he doesn't run.

   37. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 01:59 PM (#5594503)
And doesn't change the fact that even if Obama was considering a run this early in the cycle no one on the OTP board could've picked him out of a lineup, let alone named him as a POTUS wannabe.

That underestimates both how much buzz there was about Obama's election to the Senate, which sparked immediate speculation about his running for president, and how closely some here (and elsewhere) follow such matters.
   38. PreservedFish Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:01 PM (#5594504)
I am not really a politics guy - I'm mostly in it for the off-topic discussions - but I happened to be watching the convention as Obama made that speech and my reaction was something like: "holy ####, I wish this guy was running for president."
   39. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:04 PM (#5594508)
the nonstinky fish.

Assertion.
   40. Ray (CTL) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:04 PM (#5594510)
Here is Trump's list of first-year accomplishments, according to Byron York:

Byron York: Amid firestorms, Trump has year of solid policy accomplishments. Can he keep going?

Something is happening in the final days of 2017. People are noticing that Donald Trump has gotten a lot done in his tumultuous first year in the White House.

Assume that tax reform passes and is signed into law. If in, say, 2014, a Republican, of either the conservative or moderate variety, predicted that in 2017 a newly-elected GOP president and Congress would —

Cut corporate and individual taxes.
Repeal the Obamacare individual mandate.
Appoint a highly-respected conservative to the Supreme Court.
Appoint a one-year record number of judges to the circuit courts.
Get rid of reams of unnecessary regulations.
Destroy ISIS.
Approve pipeline projects and new oil drilling.

-- then a lot of Republicans would probably have cheered. Loudly.

No need to go through the litany of complaints against the president or the succession of hair-on-fire, Twitter-fueled controversies that have marked the wildest first year ever in presidential politics. Or the special counsel investigation into the Trump-Russia affair some Democrats (and some NeverTrump Republicans) hope will result in Trump's removal from office. Despite it all, Trump has racked up a solid record of first-year accomplishments.
   41. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5594511)
So, an honest question for the non-liberals here. When you see liberals speak wistfully about Reagan or GWB, what's your reaction?

I think the Deplorables would be happy with me speaking for them on this question. I believe they usually take the approach of yelling at the liberal for comparing Romney to Hitler, blaming liberals for the rise of Trump. Then they make a crack about #bindersofwomen and consider another fight won.
   42. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:06 PM (#5594512)
Obama gave the keynote at the 2004 convention. The very fact that he was chosen shows that he was already on the fast track, and the speech was very well received by Democrats, making him a top prospect for those who follow politics.

EDIT: Darn it, Coke to the nonstinky fish.



No doubt -

Most of my 2003/4 Dean meetup began gravitating immediately to Obama in the IL Senate primary as soon has Howard went kerplooey - and "don't you want to see a future President before the lights come on" was used by more than one person.
   43. 6 - 4 - 3 Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:10 PM (#5594515)
There really isn't an Obama in the field of relative Democrat newcomers. Some want Kamala Harris to be that person, but she doesn't have the natural charisma.
   44. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:16 PM (#5594520)
Charisma is semi-teachable. Clinton botched the '88? Dem convention speech, and learned his lesson. Not that I necessarily want Harris to be that person. But young up and comers can (sometimes) learn.
   45. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:18 PM (#5594521)
PF, I misread #31 - I thought you were asking the liberals. Whoops.
   46. Ray (CTL) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:21 PM (#5594524)
David, from the last thread:

Eliason said he could think of “no apparent privilege” that would apply to emails sent between private citizens who have not yet joined the government, as Trump’s team suggested.

Attorney-client privilege, at least plausibly. (Obviously we have no idea whether there were any attorney-client communications using the GSA transition email.) Langkofer also cited the deliberative process privilege and the presidential communications privilege; seems rather implausible that those would apply to private citizens, yes. "President-elect" is not a governmental position; it's just informal terminology.


That's true, but as reported by Jonathan Turley treatment of transition team documents is not a very clear area of law:

Indeed, there are a host of special rules reaffirming the special status of transition teams and their work product. While the GSA is tasked with supplying space and equipment for transition officials, the National Archives has expressly maintained that the “materials that [presidential transition team] members create or receive are not federal or presidential records, but are considered private materials.” For this reason, under agreements with transition teams, the GSA has agreed to delete “all data on [computing] devices” used by transition officials and staff.


David:

With respect to the emails, there are two separate issues:

(1) Were they obtained legally?
(2) What about privileged emails?

The media (and SBB) aren't smart enough to understand any of this stuff, so they keep conflating the two. But even Langkofer doesn't claim that the emails were obtained illegally, although he crafted his letter in such a way that the media leaped to that conclusion. The first question pertains to whether there was a search warrant or subpoena or whether a warrant/subpoena were needed at all. The second question pertains to whether they can/should look at all the emails and what they can do with those emails.

To give an analogy, let's suppose you're suspected of, say, running an illegal online gambling operation. So the FBI obtains a warrant, enters your home, and seizes your computers and hard drives and phones and the like. The FBI was authorized to do so; it did nothing wrong. Assuming -- and it's plausible -- that there are privileged emails on those devices between you and your lawyers, that does not alter the fact that the devices were seized legally. There is no requirement that the FBI first notify you and ask you to voluntarily turn over your computers and let you delete the privileged emails first. It's possible that they would need to handle the emails a certain way, but that has nothing to do with the initial seizure.


Right, and Turley reports that the special counsel said they didn't handle the emails in a certain way:

Moreover, the special counsel later reportedly confirmed that it did not create “firewalls” or “taint teams” to confine the access and use of such material.


Turley basically concludes that this was a reckless act by Mueller and it was silly to take it:

That seems to be the case with a new and troubling controversy over a massive seizure of emails by special counsel Robert Mueller from the General Services Administration (GSA). Mueller did an end run around Trump transition officials and counsel by seizing tens of thousands of emails from the GSA despite claims of privilege. The move was legally unprecedented and strategically reckless. In a gratuitous muscle play, Mueller may have added a potential complication to the use of evidence that could contaminate much of his investigation in any later trial.

...

Mueller’s office insists that it followed correct procedures, and the GSA has said that the transition team was told that any records were subject to auditing and thus were not entirely private. Yet, this does not explain why the GSA believed it had authority to give the emails to a third party. Moreover, unlike Mueller’s use of Manafort’s own attorney as a witness (which many of us view as improper but a judge allowed), this demand does not appear to have been made in the form of a court-approved subpoena.

This could ultimately fall into the category of being careful what you ask for. Once again, the Mueller team showed little hesitation or circumspection in plowing into this controversial area. It is the same attitude that led to the reversals of Weissmann at the cost of millions (and ruined lives) in failed prosecutions. If the evidence was improperly seized, it could contaminate later evidence derived from it in a “fruit of the poisonous tree” theory. Mueller would not be the first to face such a cascading problem of contamination.

...

Mueller could have simply sought the preservation and judicial review of the material, but elected (again) the blunt tool over the surgical device. In the end, if Mueller does not charge on any type of “collusion” claim, this may all prove harmless. However, if he proceeds to an indictment, he may have created a poison pill factor where indictments could be brought but prove unprosecutable. That actually might satisfy some as compromise like the practice of some Plains Indians to prove their bravery by touching enemies with “coup sticks.” Of course, they were generally then shot by settlers.


I'm skeptical that a fruit of the poisonous tree argument would have a high chance of succeeding as a way to throw out evidence -- the 4th Amendment is basically swiss cheese -- but Turley obviously knows much more about this area of law than I do.

   47. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:27 PM (#5594527)
If this whole Russia! Russia! Russia! thing is a nothingburger, why do those emails matter?


   48. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:32 PM (#5594530)
Final version of the GOP Tax Bill:
The new tax rates per individual income tax bracket are (example incomes are for married individuals filing jointly):

10 percent (up to $19,050)
12 percent (above $19,050 up to $77,400)
22 percent (above $77,400 up to $165,000)
24 percent (above $165,000 up to $315,000)
32 percent (above $315,000 up to $400,000)
35 percent (above $400,000 up to $600,000),
37 percent (above $600,000).

The child tax credit will be raised to $2,000, with $1,400 of that amount being refundable. It will phase out for families making at least $400,000, a massive change from current policy which phases out the credit for individuals making $75,000 and couples making $110,000.

The state and local tax (SALT) deduction is capped at $10,000, which can be from any mix of local taxes, rather than just property.

The mortgage interest deduction for second homes, a policy widely reviled by economists and conservatives, has been restored.

The Alternative Minimum Tax (AMT) has been repealed for corporations, but it will continue to apply to individuals, though with narrowed eligibility. The details of the narrowing are not yet clear.

The corporate income tax rate is now 21 percent; this will take effect next year.

The estate tax will remain, but with a doubled exemption. For example, under current policy, the exemption for estate tax in 2018 would be $5,600,000, so under the new plan that would be $11,200,000.

Votes expected next week.
   49. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:32 PM (#5594531)
If they're going through Trump's financial records/relationships with Russian Oligarchs/the Russian Mob, it's possible Mueller will turn up evidence of crimes other than those related to political collision. See, e.g., Manafort.
   50. Lassus Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:33 PM (#5594532)
I have to wonder WTF Ray would think about Hillary's health as POTUS if she was required to use two ####### hands to drink out of a glass of water, as Trump just did earlier. Again.
   51. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5594534)
I'm old enough to remember how liberals felt about Reagan when he was running and during his presidency. They continually tried to paint him as an extremist, although the election returns may have eventually convinced some it was a fruitless task.

I've never been a fan of Reagan, but I won a bet I made during the 1976 election season that no matter who won, Reagan was going to win in 1980.

Okay, the bet was only for ten bucks, and I never collected because the guy I bet was living almost 300 miles away, but it was the principle of the thing.

But then in early 1980, when most liberals were still laughing at Reagan, I bought a Law and Order poster for $20 and resold it to a rich Democratic lawyer for $1000 just when Carter had pulled ahead in some random October poll. He bought it as a joke, but the joke was on him.
   52. Ray (CTL) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5594535)
If this whole Russia! Russia! Russia! thing is a nothingburger, why do those emails matter?


My guess is there's no collusion on the emails but could be other crimes or areas of interest to the FBI.

But I want to stress: this is an absolutely abominable way to view such an act by law enforcement. Just trampling privilege concerns and potential 4th Amendment (and other) concerns, etc. Even setting aside how we arrived at this point to begin with via the phony dossier.

"Hey, if you're innocent what's the big deal with illegal search and seizure by law enforcement?" is a frankly horrific and - ironically given that this is what people accuse Trump of being - authoritarian thought process. And it's out of character for David of all people to sort of brush aside what Mueller did here as no big deal. Trey Gowdy was correct: go to a judge. That doesn't mean that this is a non-issue or a silly one for Trump's lawyers to have raised, as David implied when he quoted Gowdy.
   53. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:37 PM (#5594536)
Of course Ray believes Trump "destroyed ISIS." Because reasons.
   54. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:38 PM (#5594537)
   55. stig-tossled,hornswoggled gef the talking mongoose Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:38 PM (#5594538)
use two ####### hands


"Tiny" has only 4 letters. "Small" & "little" have 5. Color me baffled.
   56. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:40 PM (#5594540)
I mean - there are a lot of things to criticise Trump for. But, like, maybe a glass of water with some ice on it is a bit slippery with condensation? Or his hands were greasy from eating McDonald's?

I've used two hands to drink before. Most commonly coffee or tea, soaking up the heat. But things happen.
   57. Ray (CTL) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:40 PM (#5594541)
Of course Ray believes Trump "destroyed ISIS." Because reasons.


I don't at all, but I thought we've pretty much successfully eradicated ISIS from Iraq, which is what I presume York was talking about.
   58. The Good Face Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:42 PM (#5594543)
So, an honest question for the non-liberals here. When you see liberals speak wistfully about Reagan or GWB, what's your reaction?


The world's biggest eyeroll. ~12 years ago, Dubya was Hitler. Bushitler, Chimpy McHitler, etc. A bloodthirsty moron warmonger willing to do anything to steal oil from the ME. Now he's a standup guy who represents humility and moderation. 35 years ago, Reagan was Ronnie Raygun. A bloodthirsty moron warmonger (noticing a trend here?) who was going to blow up the world out a combination of stupidity, blind aggression and ideological rigidity. Now he's a principled leader who strove to unite our divisions and improve society.

In 20some years, assuming the Dems don't finally succeed in creating a one party state, we'll be hearing the same revisionist history about Donald Trump and how he was vastly superior to whoever will be the standard-bearer for the GOP. Because that guy will totally be Hitler.
   59. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:42 PM (#5594544)
That 1200 calories a day is not 3000 calories a day, but neither is it 200 calories a day.


Right. The fact that we think Dubya was head and shoulders better than the fvcktard currently shitting the carpets in the Oval Office doesn't mean we thought he was a *good* president, per se.
   60. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:42 PM (#5594545)
Even setting aside how we arrived at this point to begin with via the phony dossier.


We arrived at "this point" because Trump fired the FBI Director when the FBI Director wouldn't make Russia just go away.

Never underestimate the capabilities of Trumpkins to pick and choose only those little tidbits that fit their orange case...
   61. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:43 PM (#5594546)
I have to wonder WTF Ray would think about Hillary's health as POTUS if she was required to use two ####### hands to drink out of a glass of water, as Trump just did earlier. Again.

That's not really fair. How could a person with such tiny fingers as Littlefinger's ever hold a glass with only one hand?
   62. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:45 PM (#5594548)
ISIS is pretty much gone from Iraq, and pretty weakened in Syria. Controls some of Libya, and a smidge of Yemen. How much credit one assigns Trump is a different question. ISIS has been losing since early 2015.
   63. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:45 PM (#5594549)
In 20some years, assuming the Dems don't finally succeed in creating a one party state, we'll be hearing the same revisionist history about Donald Trump and how he was vastly superior to whoever will be the standard-bearer for the GOP. Because that guy will totally be Hitler.

Is that last thought going into your hope chest, or was it just a Freudian slip?
   64. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:46 PM (#5594551)
Final version of the GOP Tax Bill:


I haven't been able to find out if it will apply starting in 2018, or this year.
   65. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5594552)
The mortgage interest deduction for second homes, a policy widely reviled by economists and conservatives, has been restored.


Is it the policy of having the deductions or the elimination of the deduction that was reviled?
   66. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:48 PM (#5594553)
That's true, but as reported by Jonathan Turley treatment of transition team documents is not a very clear area of law:

Indeed, there are a host of special rules reaffirming the special status of transition teams and their work product. While the GSA is tasked with supplying space and equipment for transition officials, the National Archives has expressly maintained that the “materials that [presidential transition team] members create or receive are not federal or presidential records, but are considered private materials.” For this reason, under agreements with transition teams, the GSA has agreed to delete “all data on [computing] devices” used by transition officials and staff.
This is all a red herring. The National Archives is not a federal judge tasked with assessing the admissibility of evidence under the fourth amendment. The National Archives' position relates to the treatment of these documents for Federal Records Act and FOIA purposes -- not for criminal investigative purposes.

Right, and Turley reports that the special counsel said they didn't handle the emails in a certain way:

Moreover, the special counsel later reportedly confirmed that it did not create “firewalls” or “taint teams” to confine the access and use of such material.
No. Actually, Turley reports that Langhofer claims that the special counsel said that they didn't use a taint team. But that assumes that there are privileged documents in there in the first place -- as I noted earlier, Langhofer talks vaguely about attorney-client privilege, the deliberative process privilege, and the presidential communications privilege, and two of those three don't make any sense -- and that those privileged documents are relevant to this investigation. Otherwise, it's irrelevant.
   67. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:49 PM (#5594554)
Of course Ray believes Trump "destroyed ISIS." Because reasons.


Harry Truman won WWII.
   68. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:49 PM (#5594555)
I mean - there are a lot of things to criticise Trump for. But, like, maybe a glass of water with some ice on it is a bit slippery with condensation?


No one was making a real criticism of Trump. They were mocking the Trumpkins who did this sort of #### about Hillary (while, of course, claiming not to be Trumpkins)
   69. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:50 PM (#5594556)
I haven't been able to find out if it will apply starting in 2018, or this year.


2018, for the most part -- a few provisions (like the mandate repeal) don't start until 2019.

But, you know - what could be better than not even releasing legislative text 8 days before Christmas for massive changes to tax law that will go into effect in 15 days? To say nothing of keeping the final details secret so you can sneak in all the little kickbacks necessary to get the votes?

   70. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:50 PM (#5594557)
noticing a trend here?


Republicans nominate and elect warmongers?
   71. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:51 PM (#5594559)
Is it the policy of having the deductions or the elimination of the deduction that was reviled?


Having the deduction. It's a sop to the wealthy. Poor and middle class families don't benefit from mortgage deductions from the vacation home in Vale.
   72. Recalcitrant Nate Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5594560)
I don't know how to link Twitter in here; check out Renatto Mariotti's twitter feed. Mueller didn't need a warrant because the transition team signed documents acknowledging they had no expectation of privacy. Prosecutors obtain emails from 3rd parties all the time, usually before they ask the subject of the investigation, so they can see what they're hiding.

Oh, and apparently the Trump campaign was warned in July/Aug 2016 that Russians and other foreign entities would attempt to infiltrate their campaign, and told to contact the FBI when it happened. They didn't mention that they'd already been in contact, continued to interact with Russians, and never once told the FBI. I was skeptical when this all started, but boy it sure looks like a lot now.
   73. Traderdave Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5594561)
"Hey, if you're innocent what's the big deal with illegal search and seizure by law enforcement?" is a frankly horrific and - ironically given that this is what people accuse Trump of being - authoritarian thought process.


Obviously, yes.

Just raising the point that a guy (and his ass licking amen corner) who keeps shouting out his innocence nevertheless keeps behaving like a guilty party with much to hide.
   74. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:52 PM (#5594562)
I don't at all, but I thought we've pretty much successfully eradicated ISIS from Iraq, which is what I presume York was talking about.


If you recognize that York is vomiting bullshit all over the carpets, then don't blindly quote him as if he's not.
   75. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:53 PM (#5594565)
Mueller didn't need a warrant because the transition team signed documents acknowledging they had no expectation of privacy.


I'm told government emails are public property, but perhaps that's only if a Clinton writes them.
   76. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:55 PM (#5594566)
2018, for the most part -- a few provisions (like the mandate repeal) don't start until 2019.


OK. So it looks like my decision to buy a new car this year rather than in January will pay off. More sales tax to apply this year, as next year I likely won't itemize.
   77. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5594567)
Langhofer talks vaguely about attorney-client privilege, the deliberative process privilege, and the presidential communications privilege, and two of those three don't make any sense -- and that those privileged documents are relevant to this investigation. Otherwise, it's irrelevant.


They're relevant to SBB, who gets his entire talking points memo from Fox & Friends, so he's fully on board with the "FBI is committing a soft coup" argument from the idiot-o-sphere.
   78. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:56 PM (#5594568)
the vacation home in Vale.


I admit, the Eyrie would be a cool second home.
   79. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:58 PM (#5594569)
I admit, the Eyrie would be a cool second home.


Too Shea.
   80. Recalcitrant Nate Posted: December 18, 2017 at 02:58 PM (#5594570)
Why didn't Trump's lawyers go to a judge with their concerns, and have the evidence dismissed from the case, but instead went to Congress who can just make noise? Because there's no legal basis for their argument, and they know it.
   81. TDF didn't lie, he just didn't remember Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:01 PM (#5594573)
I stand corrected about Obama's popularity in '05.
   82. stig-tossled,hornswoggled gef the talking mongoose Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:02 PM (#5594574)
OK. So it looks like my decision to buy a new car this year rather than in January will pay off. More sales tax to apply this year, as next year I likely won't itemize.


Judging from how close it was last year, this might be my final year to itemize anyway, mortgage deduction or no.
   83. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:08 PM (#5594578)
Assume that tax reform passes and is signed into law. If in, say, 2014, a Republican, of either the conservative or moderate variety, predicted that in 2017 a newly-elected GOP president and Congress would —

Cut corporate and individual taxes. - Note: Assuming the tax reform passes
Repeal the Obamacare individual mandate. - Note: Isn't this a rider in the tax reform bill? So, assuming it passes.
Appoint a highly-respected conservative to the Supreme Court. Note: Which any R would have done.
Appoint a one-year record number of judges to the circuit courts. Note: Given the record number of openings, any R would have done.
Get rid of reams of unnecessary regulations. Note: Pretty non-specific, but OK.
Destroy ISIS. Note: Um. See Truman & WWII, also, it's unclear whether we've heard the last of ISIS.
Approve pipeline projects and new oil drilling. Note: I believe that's a rider in the tax reform bill. So, assuming it passes.

-- then a lot of Republicans would probably have cheered. Loudly.
So judicial appointments, and some stuff that is *barely* going to squeak under the first year by virtue of the GOP shoving everything they can think of in a clown car and pushing it through without actual debate, or being concerned that something like 70% of the country disapproves of the legislation. But you really, really want to be able to say Yay Trump, so you go! And you forgot "record economic indicators"!
   84. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:10 PM (#5594581)
Redistributing Income from the Poor to the Rich

“But today, according to a massive new study on global inequality, those numbers have nearly reversed: The bottom 50% take in only 13% of the income pie, while the top 1% grab over 20% of the country’s income.”

“Since 1980, in other words, the U.S. economy has transferred eight points of national income from the bottom 50% to the top 1%.”


Warren Buffett — 'There's class warfare, all right, but it's my class, the rich class, that's making war, and we're winning.'
   85. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:12 PM (#5594582)
Trump being modern day presidential again:
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump 10:41AM

The train accident that just occurred in DuPont, WA shows more than ever why our soon to be submitted infrastructure plan must be approved quickly. Seven trillion dollars spent in the Middle East while our roads, bridges, tunnels, railways (and more) crumble! Not for long!
Push my agenda! Oh, yeah, and...:
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump 10:51AM

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the train accident in DuPont, Washington. Thank you to all of our wonderful First Responders who are on the scene. We are currently monitoring here at the White House.
   86. stig-tossled,hornswoggled gef the talking mongoose Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:13 PM (#5594583)
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the train accident in DuPont, Washington. Thank you to all of our wonderful First Responders who are on the scene. We are currently monitoring here at the White House.


No way he composed that! Not a single exclamation mark!
   87. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:16 PM (#5594585)
So judicial appointments, and some stuff that is *barely* going to squeak under the first year by virtue of the GOP shoving everything they can think of in a clown car and pushing it through without actual debate, or being concerned that something like 70% of the country disapproves of the legislation. But you really, really want to be able to say Yay Trump, so you go! And you forgot "record economic indicators"!


Yeah this assumes the tax monstrosity will pass and ignores how dreadfully unpopular everything GOP President Trump has become (including the tax monstrosity). And all these "accomplishments" with a GOP House, GOP Senate, and GOP White House.

Hey guys if that is what you dreamed of accomplishing, well your dreams are way too limited.

I also noticed one whole category ignored. What happened to immigration, Trump's signature policy area? No wall? Trump Deported Fewer Than Obama In First Year.

“Despite President Trump’s tough-on-immigration rhetoric, there have been fewer deportations in his first year as president than there were in any year of Barack Obama’s presidency,” Axios reports.

“There were 177,000 fewer deportations this year than in 2009, Obama’s first year in office.”


Cue the excuses, counting methods maybe? Still, no accomplishments on his signature issue? Sad.
   88. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:17 PM (#5594586)

“Since 1980, in other words, the U.S. economy has transferred eight points of national income from the bottom 50% to the top 1%.”
Once again: pie. isn't. fixed.
   89. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:19 PM (#5594587)
Once again: pie. isn't. fixed.


Non. Responsive.
   90. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:19 PM (#5594589)
My thoughts and prayers are with everyone involved in the train accident in DuPont, Washington. Thank you to all of our wonderful First Responders who are on the scene. We are currently monitoring here at the White House.


No way he composed that! Not a single exclamation mark!


Sad!
   91. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:25 PM (#5594592)
Donald J. Trump‏Verified account
@realDonaldTrump 10:41AM

The train accident that just occurred in DuPont, WA shows more than ever why our soon to be submitted infrastructure plan must be approved quickly. Seven trillion dollars spent in the Middle East while our roads, bridges, tunnels, railways (and more) crumble! Not for long!


Isn't it too soon to talk abut that?
   92. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:26 PM (#5594594)
Isn't it too soon to talk abut that?


Not for a Republican!
   93. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:27 PM (#5594595)
“There were 177,000 fewer deportations this year than in 2009, Obama’s first year in office.”

Is that the measure - Obama's 1st year in office, when he was mostly following his predecessors deportation policies? How about comparing Trump to Obama's last year, after Obama unilaterally imposed a moratorium on many deportations? There's also the argument that if more illegal immigrants are deterred from unlawfully crossing the border, you might have fewer deportations but also fewer illegal immigrants. Seems like another thoughtless Bitter Mouse link to the frequently sloppy Political Wire.
   94. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5594598)
Not for a Republican!


Speaking of which, it's been about a month since the last mass shooting. Can we talk about gun control now? Or is "too soon" an indeterminate amount of time defined as the time between the last mass shooting and the next?
   95. Sleepy's not going to blame himself Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:28 PM (#5594599)
ISIS is pretty much gone from Iraq, and pretty weakened in Syria. Controls some of Libya, and a smidge of Yemen. How much credit one assigns Trump is a different question. ISIS has been losing since early 2015.
And no one is happier about this than Assad. Well, maybe Putin, since he got to give the "mission accomplished" speech while standing in front of a MIG.
   96. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:29 PM (#5594600)
Is that the measure - Obama's 1st year in office, when he was mostly following his predecessors deportation policies?
Trump seems to be getting a lot of mileage in this space for mostly following his predecessors economic policies.
   97. The Yankee Clapper Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:32 PM (#5594602)
If anyone is keeping track of how far off the BBTF-OTP Election Night Krugman-like predictions of a stock market disaster were, the Dow has gained 5,000 points in a year for the first time ever. It's also at an all-time high.
   98. BrianBrianson Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:34 PM (#5594603)
We're only halfway through December, don't jinx it.
   99. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5594605)
Once again: pie. isn't. fixed.

Non. Responsive.
It's entirely responsive. If the pie were fixed, then if the rich had a higher percentage of the collective [sic] wealth of the country, then that mathematically would mean that money had been transferred from the poor to the rich. But if the rich got richer because the pie grew, then nothing was "transferred" "from the bottom 50%" "to the top 1%."
   100. PepTech Posted: December 18, 2017 at 03:37 PM (#5594606)
Flippety
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