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Monday, April 23, 2018

OTP 2018 Apr 23: The Dominant-Sport Theory of American Politics

All true, and I have joined in the tut-tutting. Yet I can’t help noticing that the people making these criticisms are mostly a bunch of white guys born in the 1960s. I came along near the start of that decade, so I’ve seen a few cultural shifts in my day, and the first one came via early-1970s headlines proclaiming “Baseball No Longer the National Pastime,” after polls showed that football had become America’s most popular sport. Pundits lamented football’s rise (“violence punctuated by committee meetings,” in George Will’s memorable phrase, though he was certainly no stranger to the press box at Redskins games), and indeed, the change coincided with a trend toward greater complication, bureaucratization, and crudity in American life. After brushing off the 1980s soccer scare, football remained unchallenged for decades.

 

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 23, 2018 at 08:10 AM | 1350 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: nba, nfl, off-topic, politics, soccer

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   601. SouthSideRyan Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:09 PM (#5659998)
I think 20% is a good dividing line. I'd probably put it around 10% right now.
   602. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5660002)
The Week:
Better polling for congressional Republicans has coincided with a modest uptick in the president's approval ratings, which have rebounded from a December low of around 37 percent to over 41 percent today. While President Trump is still wildly unpopular in historical perspective for a president at this stage in his term, there is no question that most surveys have moved somewhat in his direction over the past few months.

Yet the president was also over 41 percent on March 13 too, and that didn't help Republican Rick Saccone in his Pennsylvania congressional race against Democrat Conor Lamb. Republicans have gained a couple of points in generic ballot polling since then, but not much has really changed in terms of the underlying political dynamics. If the GOP's polling surge was real, the swing to the Democrats should have been substantially smaller in Arizona than it was in Pennsylvania, especially absent non-stop press attention in a district even redder than PA-18. But it wasn't.

...Tipirneni came within 5 points of beating Lesko. That's a 16-point swing away from the Trump baseline, and 31 points away from Franks' margin of victory over his Green Party challenger in 2016. These are disaster numbers for the GOP and a strong indicator that retiring GOP Sen. Jeff Flake's seat is a goner.

If last night was a test of whether the political environment really has improved for Republicans, the party failed. Betting markets aren't buying the Republican rebound narrative. And Republicans continue to abandon ship in the House, most recently with the impending retirement of Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.). And now we have this latest data point, with a huge swing against the GOP in a deep-red Arizona district where Lesko should have won going away rather than needing a million-dollar infusion of cash from the national party to hang on.

If Republicans were looking for solace in Trump's approval ratings or the generic ballot numbers, they definitely did not find any in AZ-08. If anything, Tipirneni's near miss will only encourage more sitting Republicans to cash in a little bit earlier than expected on their time in D.C. by heading for the nearest lobbying shop, think tank, or mid-morning Fox News slot instead of flaming out in November.

Bonus fun: Democratic candidate Hiral Tipirneni advocated for a public option to strengthen Obamacare. She urged expanded child care. She opposed cutting Social Security or Medicare. She was against The Wall (in Joe Arpaio's backyard). And in gun country, she spoke about the "devastating loss of life from gun violence" that she’s seen firsthand as a doctor, calls it a health issue, and wants "common sense" restrictions. Not exactly a stealth candidate. And she eradicated 80% of the GOP winning margin in a tomato red district while doing so.
   603. DavidFoss Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5660004)
I'm still waiting on the permanent solutions that were supposed to come after the temporary Muslim ban.

'Extreme vetting'. Doesn't apply to the cabinet and WH, evidently.
   604. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:21 PM (#5660012)
'Extreme vetting'. Doesn't apply to the cabinet and WH, evidently.

WTF are you talking about? I don't see any Muslims in the cabinet or the White House.
   605. BrianBrianson Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5660020)
I mean, I don't have a problem sticking within responsible limits either. And I have basically no behaviour I regret (80% happy/20% clumsy drunk) breaking dishes, wasting a few bucks on foolishness like gas station cigars - meh. Maybe when I was 18-20 I did a really dumb thing or two, I don't recall ;).

But I also don't choose to put myself in situations where the responsible limit is "no booze, ever". The article implied he was drunk at ~midnight in a hotel, and then quotes some expert about how you should never be drunk when you're on call, and as the president's doctor, you're always on call.
   606. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5660023)
The essence of Trumpism summarized in one news article:

HUD Secretary Ben Carson to propose rent increases for low-income Americans receiving federal housing subsidies
U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson on Wednesday will propose to increase the amount low-income households are expected to pay for rent as well as require those receiving housing subsidies to work, according to the administration’s legislative proposal obtained by The Washington Post.

The move to overhaul how low-income rental subsidies are calculated would affect more than 4.5 million families relying on federal housing assistance. The proposal legislation would require Congressional approval.

Currently, tenants generally pay 30 percent of their adjusted income toward rent or a the public housing agency minimum rent not to exceed $50. The administration’s legislative proposal sets the family monthly rent contribution at 35 percent of their gross income or 35 percent of their earnings by working 15 hours a week at the federal minimum wage -- or approximately $150 a month, three times higher than the current minimum.

The Trump administration has long signaled through its budget proposals and leaked draft legislation that it sought to increase the rents low-income tenants pay to live in federally subsidized housing.

The White House budget proposal for the 2019 fiscal year indicated that it would “encourage work and self-sufficiency” across its rental assistance programs. The reforms would require adults who are able to work to “shoulder more of their housing costs and provide an incentive to increase their earnings,” budget documents said.

HUD also seeks to change the deductions that could be considered when determining a tenant’s rent, eliminating deductions for medical and childcare costs....

Seems reasonable. How else are we ever going to find the money to pay for Carson's $31,000 office dining set?
   607. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5660026)
WTF are you talking about? I don't see any Muslims in the cabinet or the White House.


For the rejoinder to this reductionism, I would recommend a couple sources. One, the letter from a number of prominent imams discussed in Le Monde regarding Islamist antisemitism in France, together with the accompanying mature and frank discussion being had within France on the topic; and Two, Angela Merkel decrying in an interview with a prominent Israeli paper, the new Muslim antisemitism that has been brought to Germany in the wake of the "refugee" migrations.
   608. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:39 PM (#5660029)

I'm still waiting on the permanent solutions that were supposed to come after the temporary Muslim ban. It has been well over a year, you'd think they'd have a solution by now instead of going to court over and over again for a temporary position.
This isn't the same ban as the first one(s); this one isn't temporary. Or, let me rephrase: it's temporary, but indefinite. No more 90 day ban.
   609. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:44 PM (#5660040)
Deputy Mayor of Toulouse says future of Jews in Europe "hopeless"

While people have been obsessed with Trump's "fascism," the situation in Europe continues to deteriorate.

As between real and phony/ersatz, I'd suggest that real is more important.
   610. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5660043)
U.S. Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson on Wednesday will propose to increase the amount low-income households are expected to pay for rent as well as require those receiving housing subsidies to work, according to the administration’s legislative proposal obtained by The Washington Post.


It's shocking that an administration staffed and run by slum-lord grifters would be looking for a way to increase the amount of blood they can suck out of their slum properties.
   611. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5660059)
I mean, I don't have a problem sticking within responsible limits either. And I have basically no behaviour I regret (80% happy/20% clumsy drunk) breaking dishes, wasting a few bucks on foolishness like gas station cigars - meh. Maybe when I was 18-20 I did a really dumb thing or two, I don't recall ;).


I'll double down on that ;-)

But I also don't choose to put myself in situations where the responsible limit is "no booze, ever". The article implied he was drunk at ~midnight in a hotel, and then quotes some expert about how you should never be drunk when you're on call, and as the president's doctor, you're always on call.


To be clear, I'm not suggesting that - just that I do use a pure "count" limit (which varies depending on beers vs cocktails vs wine). I.e., work functions - 2 per hour with a top limit of 5 total for the night. I wouldn't go full teetotaler - just saying that I'd put hard and fast numbers limits on it. Removes all the subjectivity of "Well, I had a meal" or "I don't feel drunk" or whatever.... Approach the limit and either adjust or prepare to move to seltzer, no exceptions. Still has the potential to put one in "probably shouldn't drive" situations, but it eliminates the possibility of passing out or hitting that "drunk" marker.
   612. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5660061)
It's interesting that in France, intellectuals and artistic types and celebrities are far more likely to call it like it is than their American counterparts, regardless of whether an American modern liberal pet minority is involved.

   613. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5660062)
It's shocking that an administration staffed and run by slum-lord grifters would be looking for a way to increase the amount of blood they can suck out of their slum properties.


Considering the original proposal required them to handcraft furniture for Benny to replace the orders ruthlessly taken from the Carsons, I guess this constitutes an improvement.
   614. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5660064)
. . . the considerably more modest one suggested by the generic Congressional ballot, which shows Democrats ahead by only 7 points and implies that the battle for House control is roughly a toss-up.

Actually, the Generic Congressional Ballot is at +5.5% for the Dems on the RCP Poll Average at the moment. Not that easy to predict what is needed on the GCB to tip the House, but guesses seem to cluster in the 6-7% range, but it's a less than perfect correlation. You don't get any extra seats for increasing your vote share in seats you already hold, so the trick is appealing to those who voted the other way or didn't vote in competitive districts. The GCB has underestimated the GOP House vote by about 3% in 3 of the last 4 midterms, so getting it right is a challenge, but the more important factor now is that it's still more than 6 months to the midterm. The race is ahead, not already decided.
   615. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5660072)

Actually, the Generic Congressional Ballot is at +5.5% for the Dems on the RCP Poll Average at the moment. Not that easy to predict what you need on the GCB to tip the House, but guesses seem to cluster in the 6-7% range, but it's a less than perfect correlation. You don't get any extra seats for increasing your vote share in seats you already hold, so the trick is appealing to those who voted the other way or didn't vote in competitive districts. The GCB has underestimated the GOP House vote by about 3% in 3 of the last 4 midterms, so getting it right is a challenge, but the more important factor now is that it's still more than 6 months to the midterm. The race is ahead, not already decided.


Um, your link says 6.3

Regardless, solely focusing on the aggregates and ignoring the individual and quite diverse data points we've gotten from individual races in the south, the west, the midwest, the plains, the mountains, etc is what I'd be doing if I were a Republican, too. I'd very much prefer you guys continue to lean on broad, all adults/RV models as long as you are willing to do so.
   616. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5660073)
But if being the president's doctor means I can't ever be drunk, I don't even know why I got a doctorate.


Well, it probably applies only on trips, where he might be the only one. There is more than 1 doctor when the president is in residence.
   617. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5660079)

Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
13h13 hours ago

To win the House, Dems need an average overperformance of 4% vs. @CookPolitical PVI. Here's their overperformance in the past 8 specials:

#KS04: 12%
#MTAL: 8%
#GA06: 6%
#SC05: 7%
#UT03: 6%
#ALSEN: 15%
#PA18: 11%
#AZ08: 11%
38 replies 1,096 retweets 2,014 likes



Dave Wasserman
‏Verified account @Redistrict
12h12 hours ago

If you discard #ALSEN as a special case, Dems' House overperformances have been remarkably consistent: all in the 6%-12% range. What's the PVI of the next special in #OH12 on 8/7? R+7. A big problem for Rs.

   618. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5660081)
Um, your link says 6.3

RCP added a poll, the Quinnipiac, I believe, between the time I looked it up & posted the GCB link, and when you checked. The prior Quinnipiac was +3%, the latest +8%, so that's probably the difference. We live in volatile times.
   619. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5660083)
Portrait of a group of owners who make "#NeverTrump" Republicans look like courage personified:

Inside the Confidential N.F.L. Meeting to Discuss National Anthem Protests
N.F.L. owners, players and league executives, about 30 in all, convened urgently at the league’s headquarters on Park Avenue in October, nearly a month after President Trump began deriding the league and its players over protests during the national anthem.

It was an extraordinary summit; rarely do owners and players meet in this manner. But the president’s remarks about players who were kneeling during the anthem had catalyzed a level of public hostility that the N.F.L. had never experienced. In the spirit of partnership at the meeting, the owners decided that they and the players should sit in alternating seats around the large table that featured an N.F.L. logo in the middle.

“Let’s make sure that we keep this confidential,” Commissioner Roger Goodell said to begin the session.

The New York Times has obtained an audio recording of the roughly three-hour meeting, and several people in the room corroborated details of the gathering. The unvarnished conversation reveals how the leaders of the most dominant sports league in the country and several of its most outspoken players confronted an unprecedented moment — mostly by talking past one another.

The players sounded aggrieved. After discussing a proposal to finance nonprofit groups to address player concerns, they wanted to talk about why Colin Kaepernick, the quarterback who started the anthem protests to highlight social injustice and police brutality against African-Americans, was, they believed, being blackballed by the owners. The owners sounded panicked about their business under attack, and wanted to focus on damage control.

“If he was on a roster right now, all this negativeness and divisiveness could be turned into a positive,” Philadelphia Eagles defensive lineman Chris Long said at the meeting.

Long said he did not wish to “lecture any team” on what quarterbacks to sign, but “we all agree in this room as players that he should be on a roster.” The owners’ responses were noncommittal. The Eagles owner Jeffrey Lurie said that fighting for social justice is not “about one person.”

The New England Patriots owner Robert K. Kraft pointed to another “elephant in the room.

“This kneeling,” he said.

“The problem we have is, we have a president who will use that as fodder to do his mission that I don’t feel is in the best interests of America,” said Kraft, who is a longtime supporter of Mr. Trump’s. “It’s divisive and it’s horrible.”....”


Funny, but the most prominent example of "kneeling" here was the kneeling of the owners before Donald Trump.
   620. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5660086)
The New York Times has obtained an audio recording of the roughly three-hour meeting, and several people in the room corroborated details of the gathering.
Uh, why would you need several people to corroborate what you already have recorded?
   621. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5660087)
Actually, the Generic Congressional Ballot is at +5.5%


Um, your link says 6.3


RCP added a poll, the Quinnipiac


This style of "political discourse" is insipid and soul-sucking.
   622. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5660090)
Kyle Smith on Amy Chozick's Hillary book:
Glimpses of Clinton caught on the fly confirm that Clinton despised campaigning. In Iowa in 2015, as the press is hurling fangirl queries at her (“Secretary! Can you believe you’re back in Iowa!”), Hilary pretends to flip a steak, unable to hide her revulsion. “The image screamed all at once, how long do I have to act like I enjoy this [sh**] and Why the [f***] am I back in this state?” writes Chozick. When Chozick shared Clinton’s amazingly light August schedule with an editor at the Times, the latter responded, “Does she even want to be president?” Clinton spent much of that month holed up with her rich friends in the Hamptons.

Clinton “suffered from a chronic inability to crack a simple joke,” Chozick writes. Even at special off-the-record drinks events specifically designed by her staff to allow Clinton to let her guard down and banter with reporters the way Barack Obama did, Clinton excoriates the journos for having big egos and little brains. On one such fence-mending effort in New Hampshire, Chozick writes, “She exuded a particularly icy aloofness and a how-long-do-I-have-to-talk-to-you-a**holes demeanor that made me feel as if I’d never been born.” Reporters felt so abused by the Big She during the 2008 campaign that when Clinton made an 88-second visit to the press bus proffering bagels and coffee, there were no takers. This is a bit like throwing raw filet mignon into a tank full of piranhas and watching it descend slowly to the bottom untouched.
Worst.

Candidate.

Ever.
   623. BrianBrianson Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5660091)
Well, it probably applies only on trips, where he might be the only one. There is more than 1 doctor when the president is in residence.


Hmm, that's somewhat more reasonable, although it would interfere with my hobby of trying to drink a beer from every sub-national jurisdiction (state, provice, etc) ...
   624. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5660093)
Clapper, #614:
. . . the considerably more modest one suggested by the generic Congressional ballot, which shows Democrats ahead by only 7 points and implies that the battle for House control is roughly a toss-up.

Actually, the Generic Congressional Ballot is at +5.5% for the Dems on the RCP Poll Average at the moment.

538.com measures it at 46.6% to 39.7%. The graph is on their main page every day, just under the Trump approval graph. (They've got his approval at 40.4%, while RCP has it at 41.4%.)

As we remember, 538 was one of the few "look out, Trump could win" voices in this game in the fall of 2016.


You don't get any extra seats for increasing your vote share in seats you already hold, so the trick is appealing to those who voted the other way or didn't vote in competitive districts.

That magic show is well underway. The trick would now appear to be in making it stop.
   625. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5660094)
Republicans are kneelers by nature. They think they're a bunch of Tormunds, but they're really a pack of Walders.
   626. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5660095)
RCP added a poll, the Quinnipiac, I believe, between the time I looked it up & posted the link, and when you checked. The prior Quinnipiac was +3%, the latest +8, so that's probably the difference. We live in volatile times.


Your volatile times are my increasingly optimistic and encouraging times.
   627. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5660099)
Republicans are kneelers by nature. They think they're a bunch of Tormunds, but they're really a pack of Walders.


Led by a Joffrey who thinks he's an Aegon.
   628. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:24 PM (#5660104)
Uh, why would you need several people to corroborate what you already have recorded?


You missed the real "get" there.

“Let’s make sure that we keep this confidential,” Commissioner Roger Goodell said to begin the session.

The New York Times has obtained an audio recording of the roughly three-hour meeting,
   629. Hysterical & Useless Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5660105)
Uh, why would you need several people to corroborate what you already have recorded?


Maybe to confirm who was speaking at particular points? Or what refreshments were available?
   630. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5660107)
Worst.

Candidate.

Ever.


No. She lost the electoral college to that.
   631. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5660109)
You missed the real "get" there.


Clearly, some unlucky NFL owner is going to find himself added to the standing Trumpublican list of people to prosecute.
   632. McCoy Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5660110)
Worst.

Candidate.

Ever.



Losing doesn't help the narrative and often times creates the narrative tone for all that transpired beforehand. Obama was notoriously "aloof" in at least his first term and had he lost I'm sure they would tell you that was one of the reasons why. I know Obama gets sainted now but back then in terms of public personality he didn't a hold a candle as compared to Bush and Clinton. He didn't want to do donor events, he didn't want to mingle with the plebes, and he didn't let his guard down.

Also, perhaps I'm wrong but I think the Iowa flipping steak thing was in 2014 and not 2015. I also don't see a whole lot of revulsion from her
   633. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5660118)
More from Cook/538's Dave Wasserman:
Before last night:
There are at least 60 GOP-held seats where the leading D outraised leading R in the last quarter -- more than twice the 23 Dems need to win House. By contrast, there are only 5 Dem-held seats where the top R outraised the top D in the last quarter.


Really anything above ~41% in #AZ08 (R+13 PVI) would be consistent w/ Dems on track to win the House or a statewide AZ race.

[Note: Tipirneni got 47.4%.]


The real suspense in #AZ08: who is the 113 year old Dem voter?


Last night:
Hiral Tipirneni (D)'s 47%+ showing is absolutely consistent w/ Dems on track to take back the House or win a statewide AZ race.


If the only data point you had to go on was last night's #AZ08 result, you'd think a 30-40 seat Dem House gain in Nov. would be way low.
   634. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5660121)
Also, perhaps I'm wrong but I think the Iowa flipping steak thing was in 2014 and not 2015.


I'll simply point out that even nominally reasonable and intelligent people here are taking the idea that we should select the goddamned Chief Executive of the most complicated technocratic republic in the history of humanity, with a stockpile of nuclear weapons that could obliterate life on the planet as we know it 20 times over, by how comfortable he or she feels flipping ####### steaks in ####### Iowa.
   635. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5660122)
No he didn't.
At least five and maybe ten of the fifteen pages were classified, Count.

And here's another wrinkle: Catherine Herridge of Fox News revealed last night that Comey's BFF at Columbia had "special government employee" status at the Bureau, meaning he had a security clearance.
   636. McCoy Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5660123)
I know that's how I vote. Who can cook me the best dinner.
   637. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5660126)
Also, perhaps I'm wrong but I think the Iowa flipping steak thing was in 2014 and not 2015. I also don't see a whole lot of revulsion from her


When you've made your entire career off following one public figure, as Chozick has, your own fortunes are way too involved to give an objective accounting. I'm loathe to defend Hillary but the NYTs review of the book summed up the problems of Chozick's account:

Trump understood our gluttonous short attention span better than anyone,” she writes, “but especially better than Hillary, whose media strategy amounted to her ignoring us.”

The “us” here includes Chozick and the other reporters following the Clinton campaign. She is indignant whenever Clinton disregards them, and she obsesses over what the candidate thinks of her. “I still wanted, more than anything, for Hillary to see me as a fair reporter,” Chozick worries early in the race. “She really, really hates me,” Chozick moans to her husband over the phone during a stop in Iowa. “The less I interacted with Hillary,” Chozick writes as campaign reporters seem to get less and less access to Clinton, “the greater her imperial hold on my brain became.”

Yes, she chases Hillary. But it is Chozick who gets caught.


Chozick is bitter she'll never get to write her book about Hillary as POTUS. Understandably so, but it doesn't make for an objective account.

   638. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:34 PM (#5660128)
Catherine Herridge of Fox News revealed last night that Comey


Facilitated the child sex ring at Pizza-Mars? We should probably tune into Hannity to find out.
   639. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5660137)
Probably won't matter unless you're a Rhode Island political operative needing a job, but former Governor/Senator Lincoln Chafee says he'll likely mount a primary challenge to incumbent Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse. The Bernie Sanders supporters seem to be urging him to run, apparently due to Whitehouse backing Hillary in 2016.
   640. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5660141)
I'll simply point out that even nominally reasonable and intelligent people here are taking the idea that we should select the goddamned Chief Executive of the most complicated technocratic republic in the history of humanity, with a stockpile of nuclear weapons that could obliterate life on the planet as we know it 20 times over, by how comfortable he or she feels flipping ####### steaks in ####### Iowa.
Quit acting like you're above it all. You may think of yourself as some sort of sophisticated apple-flavored beer connoisseur, but you were snickering like Beevis for days after Gary Bauer tried flipping pancakes and fell off the stage.
   641. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5660145)
I'll simply point out that even nominally reasonable and intelligent people here are taking the idea that we should select the goddamned Chief Executive of the most complicated technocratic republic in the history of humanity, with a stockpile of nuclear weapons that could obliterate life on the planet as we know it 20 times over, by how comfortable he or she feels flipping ####### steaks in ####### Iowa.


Bad as it is, that POV is actually a quaint and less-awful one than that which led to Trump. I mean, he's not a guy comfortable flipping a steak in Iowa either.

Mindlessly dumb though it may have been - "Who would you rather have a beer with?" is actually better than what "Who will be the most boorish and crudest ####### to all the 10s of millions of people I believe look down on me?"

   642. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5660147)
Quit acting like you're above it all. You may think of yourself as some sort of sophisticated apple-flavored beer connoisseur, but you were snickering like Beevis for days after Gary Bauer tried flipping pancakes and fell off the stage.


how do you do, fellow kids? Not only did you manage to use a reference that's about 10 years past its prime (or more), you spelled his name wrong.
   643. BrianBrianson Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5660152)
Reportedly Trump doesn't drink, so maybe it'd be the case that I'd get to have two beer? That seems like a point in his favour.
   644. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5660160)
Reportedly Trump doesn't drink, so maybe it'd be the case that I'd get to have two beer? That seems like a point in his favour.


But it would come with a burnt steak, an obvious crime against nature.

Besides, I can buy the second beer myself when I'm ready for it... ending up with a 2nd before you're ready for it just means you get a non-freshly poured and perhaps more room temperature one.

   645. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5660163)
A Chafee-Whitehouse primary faceoff in Rhode Island could well determine which Democratic candidate gets 66% of the vote in November.
   646. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5660167)
how do you do, fellow kids? Not only did you manage to use a reference that's about 10 years past its prime (or more), you spelled his name wrong.


I think he's talking about British author Keri Beevis, who, I understand is quite the chuckler.
   647. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5660187)
Not only did you manage to use a reference that's about 10 years past its prime (or more), you spelled his name wrong.
Eat my shorts.
   648. DavidFoss Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5660193)
Eat my shorts.

Sit on it.
   649. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5660197)
Chozick is bitter she'll never get to write her book about Hillary as POTUS. Understandably so, but it doesn't make for an objective account.


Clinton is a natural misanthrope who has looked down on people her entire life -- with, frankly, little reason given her personal background and history. With the presidency in sight, she couldn't even discipline herself enough not to be caught saying out loud that she thought tens of millions of American citizens were irredeemable racists. Her temperament is entirely anathema to the country's democratic temperament. There's more to be said about her deficiencies but those are quite enough for these purposes. She was a dreadful candidate and the country is better off without her having won the presidency. Good riddance to her.
   650. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5660198)
el duble
   651. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5660199)
A couple of things.

1. As noted, it's "Beavis," Butthead.

2. Who the #### is Gary Bauer?

3. "Eat my shorts" is actually more antiquated than "Beevis (sic)."

4. Hops don't taste anything like apples, K-Street.
   652. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5660203)
Hey, Einstein, "a couple" means two.
   653. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5660217)
Republicans are kneelers by nature. They think they're a bunch of Tormunds, but they're really a pack of Walders.

Led by a Joffrey who thinks he's an Aegon.


Watching those pathetic recent attempts at human contact, do you think Melina knew she'd be playing Sansa to his Ramsay?
   654. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5660220)
Clinton is a natural misanthrope who has looked down on people her entire life


Fake Lawyer moonlights as Fake Psychologist.
   655. McCoy Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5660224)

Watching those pathetic recent attempts at human contact, do you think Melina knew she'd be playing Sansa to his Ramsay?


Someone didn't read the books.
   656. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5660225)
Watching those pathetic recent attempts at human contact, do you think Melina knew she'd be playing Sansa to his Ramsay?


She probably counts herself lucky nobody has gifted Trump a crossbow.
   657. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:30 PM (#5660226)
Eat my shorts.

Sit on it.


Get with it you dopes. Juan only responds to "Up your nose with a rubber hose."
   658. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5660227)
Watching those pathetic recent attempts at human contact, do you think Melina knew she'd be playing Sansa to his Ramsay?

Someone didn't read the books.


NOBODY CARES ABOUT JEYNE POOLE!
   659. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5660228)
Watching those pathetic recent attempts at human contact, do you think Melina knew she'd be playing Sansa to his Ramsay?

She probably counts herself lucky nobody has gifted Trump a crossbow.


She really is repulsed by him. I feel for the poor lady, she wanted to marry a sugar daddy and spend her time shopping and hanging out at the spa, now she's forced to be dragged along to public functions and pretend she isn't disgusted by the fat, sweaty, bald, spray-tanned simpleton who keeps trying to touch her like he was a normal person.
   660. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:34 PM (#5660230)
Someone's mercilessly trolling Sammy...
You don't have to agree with trump but the mob can't make me not love him. We are both dragon energy. He is my brother. I love everyone. I don't agree with everything anyone does. That's what makes us individuals. And we have the right to independent thought.

Oy, he even poses for a selfie donning #MAGA attire...
   661. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:37 PM (#5660239)
Hey, Einstein, "a couple" means two.


Does “a couple” always mean two?

So there isn't a simple answer for you, I'm afraid, but the answer is it's all very dependent on who you're talking to and how they interpret the word. If your friend corrected you then he has a different interpretation--but that doesn't mean you were wrong!


English, not an exact science.
   662. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5660243)
While fussy white people are sitting around on message boards obsessing about how a couple words in Trump's tweet contradicted something Trump's secretary of state said, Kanye is out having a good time making music and making money and otherwise MAGA.

Kanye is smarter than you, fussy white people.
   663. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5660244)
Someone's mercilessly trolling Sammy...


Given Clapper's history, I think he's probably more upset that Kanye won't be running for the Democratic nomination.

   664. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5660245)
Today is oral argument, and lots of people will pretend they know from the questions that are asked who's going to prevail, but that's not very reliable. My prediction w/o seeing the transcript is that much of the notaban will be upheld with a splintered decision -- but we won't know that for some time.

Here are some of the "not very reliable" headlines from the oral argument, compiled by the How Appealing blog:
“Key Justices Seem Skeptical of Challenge to Trump’s Travel Ban”: Adam Liptak and Michael D. Shear of The New York Times have this report.

Robert Barnes, Ann E. Marimow, and Matt Zapotosky of The Washington Post report that “Supreme Court’s conservative justices appear to back Trump’s authority for travel ban.”

David G. Savage of The Los Angeles Times reports that “Supreme Court seems headed toward upholding Trump’s third try at a travel ban.”

Richard Wolf of USA Today reports that “Supreme Court shows support for President Trump’s immigration travel ban.”

Stephen Dinan of The Washington Times reports that “Trump’s tweets front and center as Supreme Court heats travel ban.”

Mark Sherman of The Associated Press reports that “Trump seems likely to win travel ban case at Supreme Court.”

Lawrence Hurley and Andrew Chung of Reuters report that “U.S. Supreme Court leans toward upholding Trump’s travel ban.”

Greg Stohr of Bloomberg News reports that “Trump Travel Ban Gets Support From Key Justices at Supreme Court.”

Ariane de Vogue and Saba Hamedy of CNN report that “Kennedy, conservatives appear to back Trump on travel ban.”

Josh Gerstein and Ted Hesson of Politico report that “Supreme Court appears split on Trump’s travel ban; Frequent swing Justice Anthony Kennedy seemed to struggle with aspects of the case.”

And Chris Geidner of BuzzFeed News reports that “Trump’s Travel Ban Gets A Hearing At The Supreme Court; The Supreme Court is expected to issue a decision by the end of June.”

The not very reliable headlines seem to be in line with the prediction in #582, with 8 0f 11 suggesting the travel ban will be upheld. Unknown as to whether that effects the reliability of said prediction.
   665. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5660247)
606

The White House budget proposal for the 2019 fiscal year indicated that it would “encourage work and self-sufficiency”


Well, isn't that nice...
   666. Stormy JE Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:41 PM (#5660249)
Does “a couple” always mean two?
This isn't an episode of Big Love.
   667. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5660257)
620

Uh, why would you need several people to corroborate what you already have recorded?


Thorough journalism?

EDIT: the author probably needed help identifying whose voice was whose.
   668. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5660259)
Worst.

Candidate.

Ever.


Who still would have made an infinitely better president than the racist clown you keep running interference for. Between you and the NFL owners it's a tossup as to who's most scared of Trump's shadow.
   669. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5660269)
The not very reliable headlines seem to be in line with the prediction in #582, with 8 0f 11 suggesting the travel ban will be upheld. Unknown as to whether that effects the reliability of said prediction.

Of course anyone with half a brain can predict how 8 of the 9 justices will vote on this case, but it's the height of political incorrectness to say things like that out loud. We have to pretend that the Supreme Court is some sort of a nonpartisan institution.
   670. Swoboda is freedom Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:56 PM (#5660273)
Uh, why would you need several people to corroborate what you already have recorded?

1) That is it a real recording
2) ID who is speaking. Confirm some, id others.
3) Confirm where and when it was recorded.
   671. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 03:58 PM (#5660275)
640

Quit acting like you're above it all. You may think of yourself as some sort of sophisticated apple-flavored beer connoisseur, but you were snickering like Beevis for days after Gary Bauer tried flipping pancakes and fell off the stage.


Comedy: if it bends, it's funny; if it breaks, it's not funny...
   672. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5660278)
The not very reliable headlines seem to be in line with the prediction in #582, with 8 0f 11 suggesting the travel ban will be upheld. Unknown as to whether that effects the reliability of said prediction.
I didn't say that the headlines (which I hadn't seen, obviously) weren't reliable; I said that the methodology wasn't. I based my prediction on (a) the briefs, (b) the unprecedented nature of the arguments against the notaban, and (c) the Supreme Court's prior signaling, with respect to preliminary injunctions about the notaban, that they were skeptical of the anti-notaban arguments.

EDIT: It's not that oral arguments never tell you anything; when a litigant takes an absurd extreme position and refuses to budge in the face of judicial incredulity (like when the Obama administration said the government could ban books, or tell churches who to hire as ministers), or when the court actually says, "You're going to lose" (like when Kagan asked the state of Louisiana "Did you ever think of just confessing error?"), then you can get a pretty big clue. But the "Well, they were more aggressive about questioning side X" is just not a good indicator.
   673. DavidFoss Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5660279)
I don't understand this fixation with Worst. Candidate. Ever. A lot of non-charismatic people have finished second in the electoral college. Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson (twice) and those are just some within living memory. Who knows? Tilden could have won if he'd hadn't told that Custer joke too soon. :-)
   674. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:02 PM (#5660282)
662

Kanye is out having a good time making music


If you wanna call it that...


EDIT: He's better at making Kardashians.
   675. BDC Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:03 PM (#5660283)
We have to pretend that the Supreme Court is some sort of a nonpartisan institution

The usual Republican theory is that the Supreme Court consists of 4 or 5 nonpartisan justices, and 4 or 5 radicals who are fellow law-school alumni of SBB. If the nonpartisan ones win a vote, they have ruled correctly and it is heresy to suggest that their reasoning is anything but self-evident. If they lose, PC groupthink has prevailed over plain reading of the Constitution :)
   676. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:04 PM (#5660285)
I don't understand this fixation with Worst. Candidate. Ever.


Reliving November 2016 is very very important.
   677. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:06 PM (#5660287)
I don't understand this fixation with Worst. Candidate. Ever. A lot of non-charismatic people have finished second in the electoral college. Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson (twice) and those are just some within living memory. Who knows? Tilden could have won if he'd hadn't told that Custer joke too soon. :-)
None of them lost to Trump.
   678. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:07 PM (#5660289)
Someone's mercilessly trolling Sammy..


Trump and Kanye. "Party of Ideas." ####### idiots.
   679. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:08 PM (#5660290)
Kanye is smarter than you, fussy white people.


old white man praises Kanye West. What a time to be alive.

kanye west is, like Kim Kardashian, an absolute master at generating publicity and image. that Kim, Kanye and Trump are now in the news for talking about each other is the least surprising thing ever.

as for his music, he peaked with College Dropout on his debut and had a good revival with the Life of Pablo. As a lyricist and MC he's mediocre at best. As a producer he's probably in the top 5 of all time for Hip Hop. He's up there with Premier, Dre, Dilla and others.
   680. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5660291)
Of course anyone with half a brain can predict how 8 of the 9 justices will vote on this case, but it's the height of political incorrectness to say things like that out loud. We have to pretend that the Supreme Court is some sort of a nonpartisan institution.

There are about 35 Supreme Court cases that have been argued but are awaiting decision. Perhaps Andy will demonstrate his fitness for the Half A Brain Club by predicting the Justices votes at his suggested 89% accuracy rate?
   681. dlf Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5660293)
Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson (twice) and those are just some within living memory.


And I thought that *I* was old.
   682. DavidFoss Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:17 PM (#5660305)
And I thought that *I* was old.

:-)

Not *my* lifetime.

You made me look it up.


> In recent history, in recorded history amongst the lifespan of extant people; events or situations which can be remembered by people that are still alive.


Older relatives in my family remember Stevenson. Cox & Smith I figured would be going back too far.

   683. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:20 PM (#5660308)
Reliving November 2016 is very very important.


It is for Cub fans.
   684. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5660309)
Cox & Smith I figured would be going back too far.


Oh no, now we're going to hear about Coxholsters.
   685. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5660310)

There are about 35 Supreme Court cases that have been argued but are awaiting decision. Perhaps Andy will demonstrate his fitness for the Half A Brain Club by predicting the Justices votes at his suggested 89% accuracy rate?
Well, you misunderstood what he said. He didn't say anything about accuracy; he just said that they can make predictions.
   686. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:22 PM (#5660312)
There are about 35 Supreme Court cases that have been argued but are awaiting decision. Perhaps Andy will demonstrate his fitness for the Half A Brain Club by predicting the Justices votes at his suggested 89% accuracy rate?

At least get it right: I said that when the Court is split 5 to 4 on cases where one side is clearly liberal and the other clearly conservative, and I know what the case is about, I can nearly always say which Justices will vote which way. I don't claim I can do it every time, but I'm also not blind to history.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kerry, Dole, Dukakis, Mondale, McGovern, Goldwater, Stevenson (twice) and those are just some within living memory.

And I thought that *I* was old.

Hell, I can (almost) remember the campaign of the little man on the wedding cake.
   687. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5660315)
Reliving November 2016 is very very important.

It is for Cub fans.


Still worth it.
   688. dlf Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5660318)
And I thought that *I* was old.

Hell, I can (almost) remember the campaign of the little man on the wedding cake.


Well, I knew that you were old.
   689. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5660319)
At least get it right: I said that when the Court is split 5 to 4 on cases where one side is clearly liberal and the other clearly conservative, and I know what the case is about, I can nearly always say which Justices will vote which way.


/facepalm.

So on cases that split on clear liberal/conservative lines where you also know what the case is about, you can nearly always say which judges were the conservatives and which were the liberals.

Wow, I gotta say -- that's quite an accomplishment.

   690. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5660322)
/facepalm.

So on cases that split on clear liberal/conservative lines where you also know what the case is about, you can nearly always say which judges were the conservatives and which were the liberals.

Wow, I gotta say -- that's quite an accomplishment.


No, he's not saying that.
   691. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5660324)
Still worth it.


Hmmm. If you could reverse the results of the WS AND the election, would you? Not one or the other, but you have to do both or neither.
   692. -- Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5660328)
No, he's not saying that.


He might not be saying that ... but that's what he said.

He of course also doesn't realize that many 5-4 decisions have various concurrences in part and dissents in part.

I mean, look, we know where Andy stands on the concept of law. He thinks it can be ignored en masse and is little more than politics by other means, with little to no rigor beyond that. He thinks that in part because of aging baby boomer cynicism and in part because he can't or won't get his fingernails dirty actually trying to follow along with things like the actual opinions, preferring instead the oh-so-objective intermediation of media outlets such as the New York Times and Washington Post.
   693. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:32 PM (#5660330)
> In recent history, in recorded history amongst the lifespan of extant people; events or situations which can be remembered by people that are still alive.

Older relatives in my family remember Stevenson. Cox & Smith I figured would be going back too far.

John Tyler's got two living grandsons who can probably remember their parents talking about Tyler's presidency in the 1940's.

   694. DavidFoss Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5660332)
Oh no, now we're going to hear about Coxholsters.

Cool pictures (and even a rare video or two) of his running mate FDR walking without assistance. FDR was only 38 years old.
   695. The Yankee Clapper Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:33 PM (#5660334)
There are about 35 Supreme Court cases that have been argued but are awaiting decision. Perhaps Andy will demonstrate his fitness for the Half A Brain Club by predicting the Justices votes at his suggested 89% accuracy rate?

At least get it right: I said that when the Court is split 5 to 4 on cases where one side is clearly liberal and the other clearly conservative, and I know what the case is about, I can nearly always say which Justices will vote which way.

Ah, so you're one of those dreaded cherry pickers? Just going after the low hanging fruit? For shame! No Half-A-Brain-Club for you.
   696. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:37 PM (#5660336)
Hmmm. If you could reverse the results of the WS AND the election, would you? Not one or the other, but you have to do both or neither.


Right now?

No.

If we can get another this year and I get to keep that one, maybe.
   697. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5660339)
He might not be saying that ... but that's what he said.


No it isn't. He said if he knows what the case is about, and knows that the two sides (of the case) are ideologically split, he will know beforehand which judges will vote which way. He didn't say he can look at which way a judge voted and know whether he is a conservative or a liberal, which you claimed.
   698. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5660343)
New allegations against Dr. Jackson. He got drunk at a secret service retirement party and wrecked a government vehicle. He was passed out drunk while on call one time and could not be reached. He freely dispensed not just Ambien on overseas trips, but Percocet, and allegedly kept a large supply in his office. Info coming from over 20 different sources.

Now, these are still unproven allegations, but this is precisely why you vet your nominees in private, before submitting their name to Congress and the public. Trump did his good friend a huge disservice by being so sloppy with the process.
   699. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5660349)
So on cases that split on clear liberal/conservative lines where you also know what the case is about, you can nearly always say which judges were the conservatives and which were the liberals.

Wow, I gotta say -- that's quite an accomplishment.

No, he's not saying that.

That's actually not an unfair representation of what I'm saying. I'm simply acknowledging that the Supreme Court has become more and more predictable in cases where the two sides are in stark ideological opposition. Compared to many of the Supreme Courts in the past, it's much easier now to know how a Justice will vote by knowing which president nominated him than it was when you had Justices like White and Blackmun.

Just look at the vote breakdown of Roe v Wade for a good example of what it used to be like. In perhaps the most ideologically charged case of the past 50 years, Republican appointees split 5 to 1 in favor of the plaintiff, and the Democratic appointees also split 2 to 1 in her favor.
   700. Zonk just has affection for alumni Posted: April 25, 2018 at 04:53 PM (#5660350)
Now, these are still unproven allegations, but this is precisely why you vet your nominees in private, before submitting their name to Congress and the public. Trump did his good friend a huge disservice by being so sloppy with the process.


Hilariously, I think these are all coming out of stuff White House folks have sent one place or another (to congress for confirmation work, to the media, etc).

The idea of an actual palace coup by Trumpkins amuses and confuses me. I am actually not sure how I would react if it ends up being actual Trumpkins who get all the best seats and choicest stones for the full Mussolini. On the one hand, I would feel cheated. On the other, it does go a long way towards restoring one's faith in humanity.

I think the one thing I would insist upon is full disclosure of secret meeting minutes and whatnot from the Trumpkins. Lines must be drawn somewhere and I don't want any Jasons or Clappers making fantastic claims about they were bringing things down from the inside and had to maintain cover or whatnot.
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