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Tuesday, August 07, 2018
OTP 2018 August 7: Book Explores Trump, Taft and Other Presidents Baseball Ties
“William Howard Taft, all 300 pounds of him, was a big act to follow in every sense of the word. Taft was an amateur baseball pitcher in the 1880s. He wanted to became a major league pitcher, but he settled instead to become President, and in fact later became the Chief Justice of the United States Supreme Court. As Chief Justice, he scheduled his speaking engagements around the country in Major League cities, so that he could give a speech and then go out to a ballgame in the afternoon,” Smith said.
Smith explains that while two of the game’s most famous rituals are associated with our 27th commander-in-chief, he should only receive credit for one.
(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)
Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant
Posted: August 07, 2018 at 08:13 AM | 1114 comment(s)
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Daniel Shaver was white, what did they yell at him? "He's got a Negro in his pocket!"
Just because the point you want to make has (at least some) validity, doesn't excuse making lousy/wrong arguments, or misrepresenting facts. Yeah, police are largely unaccountable for whatever they do (whether the "militarisation" of police is important here, I don't know). Trying to solve that problem without trying to understand it is dumb.
They did, and they were surprisingly old.
1% under 18,
27% 18-29,
37% 30-44,
24% 45+
10% unspecified.
I would've guess 50%+ were under 30.
Go #### yourself.
Well, Brian seemed to be trying, and all you do in response is tell him to go #### himself?
Did I make those arguments?
Fair point.
I cannot overstress how pro-masterbation I am.
What part of insulting me is trying? What part of misrepresenting the data is trying? What part of "unthreatening" is trying?
There can be no meaningful discourse on this subject with an all white jury.
Bowser from Sha Na Na
And Arthur Fonzarelli
Most here are well-meaning, and undoubtedly smart and accomplished in their chosen fields, but yeah, it's hard to believe you are paying attention if you aren't aware of the Rothschilds and their pertience to discussion right here in this thread.
I get incredibly frustrated by that contradiction, particularly when people write that racism barely exists, that 600+ police killings in a little over seven months is unremarkable (note that Brian counts all the police that never go out on the street to cook the books), that people stay glued to Twitter and seem to be unaware of NYT coverage beyond Trump and election politics.
Yeah, I let myself be baited into an insult above. My bad. But this board has a long, long history of claiming racism is a problem that barely exists anymore and attacking (or more generally ignoring) evidence to the contrary. I just spent time reading NYT on Stephon Clark's murder, and you feel incredibly angry in the face of indifference, and that spills over dealing with antagonists.
Whiteness is the norm here, economic privilege the rule. I don't think anything I post here that goes against that grain is better than spitting into the wind. As common society continues to deteriorate around us, maybe reality will intrude in a way that undeniable.
Now let me go do something about my nose...
It's snowed last winter, Global Warming is a hoax!!!
Are you ####### kidding me? YOU'VE done that.
edit...I'm not good with the search function, but if all of your posts can be searched as if you used one screen name, there are many posts from you where you taunted people who claimed racism for their "white guilt" and how they needed to "get over it".
BUT! There's actually some drama here:
Sadly true. Lots of qualms, lots of qualms...
On the other hand, white people are the single biggest group among people police kill, both generally and specifically when they're unarmed.
Both the progressive and reactionary talking points don't jive with the facts.
I support the police shooting and killing people who use "jive" when they mean "jibe."
Having a gun on you is not “threatening.” It’s usually not even a crime. And it’s certainly not punishable by death.
So I don’t really see the point of those stats. 55% has guns, eh? So what. How many shot cops first?
Stop talkin jive.
The "influence" part has NOTHING to do with the "article" that you brought to everyone's attention.
Again, the $700 trillion amount is not, in and of itself, an automatic "anti-semetic" indicator.
It could be a typo, a mistranslation, or just really bad math.
If I told you that Harrison Ford had earned over $2.3billion as an actor/pitchman during his career, would you assume that I was being anti-semetic if I made that mistake?
(He's supposedly worth $230million, so my guesstimate is probably off by a factor of 5 when you figure in taxes.)
Heh.
Clapper's confusion over web ads begins to make more and more sense...
The point is that context is good. Not every police shooting is justified, nor is every one unjustified. Given that, isn't it a good idea to study the circumstances surrounding the killings both individually and in general?
Excessive force and police brutality are bad things, and we as a society need to combat them. No one is disputing that. Doesn't mean we should just blindly accept every talking point or vague statistic that supports the outrage.
That data isn't in the source, and I doubt I could assemble it myself. About 10% of the cases had police wearing body cams (from the data). In those cases (where the cam footage was released!) you might be able to make a more accurate assessment of how threatening they were. And really, shooting someone (especially successfully) isn't really a great criterion either. When I was about 11, the cops shot (and killed) a guy about thirty houses down from mine who'd been attacking people and cars with a sword. No gun, but certainly threatening (at least, for the people he'd be chasing around trying to hack and slash).
But my vague understanding is that 220 is at least a big driver of the disparity - cops stop & question black people more often, so they shoot and kill black people more often. Once you're dealing with a cop, they're extremely dangerous, whether you're white, black, or (do Americans have a term along the lines of allophone but for race?) Racism makes it worse for black people, but cops are free to kill white people with impunity (unless they're like, rich), so casting it as totally a racial thing isn't likely to be helpful. Indeed, casting it entirely as a racial thing will make it impossible for you to meaningfully address, since we know even if you live in lilly-white cul-du-sacs, the mechanics are the same (even if the magnitude is different).
This is where the history and culture of white genocidal behavior towards nonwhites is so important to understanding what happens now. So much of that white supremacy is encoded into law and still used as justification for violent action both home and abroad. The Second Amendment is incomprehensible if you don't understand the individual white man needed to keep and bear arms (and use them, including their threat) to keep the savage populations down.
Still in full effect. Watch any GOP campaign ad or Trump rally. Read this piece and follow a few links. Do you really think the election of Donald J. Trump was a freak lightning strike?
But I guess that’s not politically correct, or won’t play well in Peoria or whatever. So it goes.
Who says he didn't mean "jive"?
Indeed, I suspect a lot of the problem is that being a cop doesn't pay great, nor is it all that respectable, but it comes with the perk that you can freely bully whoever you like without consequence, and so attracts people who're willing to forgo pay and social standing for that perk. But I could be wrong. Why aren't British cops seen as abusive asshats to nearly the same extent? Is it better PR, or is there a real difference?
Nothing like that. The person who hired the person who hired the person who hired the sub delivery guy isn't Hillary. The person who is paying the person who is paying the person who is paying the sub delivery guy isn't Hillary. The sub delivery guy wasn't being paid by Hillary -- he was being paid by his employer -- wasn't acting on behalf of Hillary -- he was acting on behalf of his employer -- and wasn't doing anything within the scope of what Hillary's campaign was doing. Hillary's campaign was running a political campaign, not doing anything with submarine sandwiches.
Other than that, yeah.
But if you're trying to argue that Steele was a puppet of the Russians (just like the delivery guy was the puppet of the sandwich shop), I'm not sure that helps you.
I am going to err on the side of 100% unjustified. They should just replace all the police with bullet proof robots armed with steel mesh nets and maybe vomit gas or whatever the safest state of the art non-lethal chemical weapon is ( if things get really hairy). They could even be remote controlled drone robots.
Just around the next corner!
Seriously, I don't think folks actually understand how insane they sound in pushing these conspiracy theories.
Hey. I know about a dozen cops, and that description only really fits one of them. Half of them probably shouldn't be trusted with a gun though.
In NYC, part of the problem is that they put the least experienced cops in the most dangerous areas. I know people who are neither particularly thoughtful nor empathetic people to begin with, and on their first day they were sent to go patrol the worst parts of the city. It is ridiculous.
Just to expound - it's like the death penalty. Yeah sure, there is some weird tiny corner case where probability of guilt, heinousness of crime, chance of escape+repeat AND deterrent effect might *conceivably* justify a death sentence in some tiny fraction of cases... but why risk it?
(The bright legal minds of BBTF could also likely confirm my suspicion that British law puts greater checks on police action (in a 4th amendment-type context) then we have here in America (where “he looked at me funny” is legally sufficient justification for a handcuff & groping sesh, thanks to the Supremes).)
Also global warming is a hoax so that communists can take over the government. Isn’t that right Little Lord?
It’s a miracle, your wokeness has brought him back from the dead!
They’re also strongly overrepresented among people who kill people.
I am totally on board with your net-wielding robot proposal, but I don't think this is a fair comparison. There's no way to ever objectively justify giving someone the death penalty, but even if one could, executing someone who is already in prison doesn't do anything to protect the public. Meanwhile, there's a pretty clear public good in gunning down a crazy guy running around swinging an axe at people, even if ideally he'd be subdued, rather than killed.
We hear about truly indefensible killings, and we hear about plainly justified ones, and I'm assuming the 98% of them that don't make it beyond the local news tend to land somewhere in the middle. It's entirely reasonable to argue that if it's a gray area, it should be considered unacceptable to shoot a suspect, but that doesn't mean that there wasn't a genuine concern for the safety of others that caused the cop to shoot.
I don’t know, those Purge movies make a good case for allowing us to execute whoever we want one night a year. We could just do all our lethal injections then.
Irrelevant even if you could demonstrate statistical significance. Let's say there is a small fraction of people that the police kill in which case it's necessary - call this d. Let's that the police kill a fraction of people they interact with, k and that that k > d. Further lets assume that the police are completely unbiased on skin color. This is a boundary condition.
The police encounter W white people and B brown people. W*d = number of white people who deserve to die, B*d = number of brown people that deserve to die and of course, W*k and B*k =t the numbers actually killed. So the unnecessary kills are W*(k-d) and B*(k-d) for white and brown people respectively.
So we know that the population ratio of W:B is about 3:1. But your claim is -- if I may interpret -- brown folk commit proportionately more crimes, hence they are (rightfully!) more likely to encounter a police officer who kills them ("rightfully" or wrongfully).
Of course, in this case W:B < 3:1 and that will be reflected in the dead encounter ratio.
BUT k-d is meaningful. It's the HORRIFIC CRIME* COMMITTED BY POLICE OFFICER ratio. And - as the ratio of police encounters diverges from norm (3:1) - the rate of proportionate HORRIFIC CRIME* on Brown people is, likewise increased.
Only in the limit that k-d is roughly zero can you claim that this is fair. I contend, in fact, that d ~= 0 and it's 100 cop-on-citizen violence that disproportionately impacts brown people. And it's even worse if you allow that cops might *actually* discriminate in use of force against brown people -- i.,e that kB > kW) (which -- let's face it -- is not exactly far fetched).
* "crime" here is used in the moral sense, not the legal sense. Obviously.
I agree but I allow that this is an emotional argument, not a logical one.
The article did not make any such numerical comparison. The article compared (in essence) the rules of engagement employed by the police vs. military.
The accent.
Specifically, fewer guns carried by police makes a huge difference. Most Policemen/women in the UK do not carry firearms. Only selected officers are authorised to carry at all, and then only on specific pre-approved operations where firearms are seen as essential.
Outside of places like airports, I have never seen a policeman with a gun in the UK.
It is intellectually honest because it is true. Hillary’s campaign hired Fusion GPS to to opposition research. Fusion hired Steele to investigate any Russian contacts Trump may have had. Steele, as a former British MI-6 agent who had spent a large portion of his career gathering intelligence from Russia, including living for several years in Russia, investigated without being told who the ultimate client was (although it probably wasn’t hard to guess). Steele was so disturbed by what he heard from his Russian contacts, delivered the intelligence he had gathered to the FBI, without even telling Fusion.
The so-called Steele dossier is raw intelligence. It contains things he heard from his contacts. Some of it may not be true (although to my knowledge, nothing in it has been conclusively disproved). Normally, the client would never see this. Fusion would have used it as a start for further investigation, and delivered a more polished document containing only the intelligence that they were sure or mostly sure was true (with caveats in the report).
So, no, Hillary’s campaign did not deal with Steele. Fusion did. Now, all of this information is public knowledge and is freely available if you look. You are not stupid; I am sure you know all this. So, who is really being intellectually dishonest? Hint: it’s you.
Tell us again about the global warming hoax.
Is there any evidence of this? I get a quick and dirty American cops killing 3X the number of people per capita as Canadian cops, who're typically carrying guns.
Oh, right, sorry. My bad. Mea Culpa. And so on.
You miss the point.
The search indicates that the NYT has used that phrase in 302 different articles.
The NYT is not some obscure treatise. If it shows up there, it shows up in a large number of other general publications as well.
Reasonably well informed people will therefore have been likely to have come across it.
This has been much more of a discussion than an argument, and there are certainly no grounds for anyone to declare victory or defeat. On the one hand, there is the belief that compiling oppo is compiling oppo, no matter how it's done. On the other hand, a distinction is drawn between commissioning a professional (however cut out that person may be) to compile oppo via what we might call "traditional" means, and having foreign agents approach a candidate directly (alright, the candidate's son) seeking a quid pro quo.
To make a football analogy, it strikes me that the Clinton methodology is akin to attending the training camps and/or open practices of a rival team, and perhaps going so far as to looking through their dumpsters to see if a playbook might have been carelessly disposed of. Whereas the Trump way is more like a player or coach for the other team calling you up and offering to sell you the first 15 plays next Sunday.
There is little doubt about the desire for a quid pro quo, either. Whether it actually came to fruition (along the lines of the Ukraine plank change) or was merely explored (adoption restrictions/sanctions), it doesn't appear that there were no strings attached. The trail of obfuscation surrounding the meeting IMPLIES that Team Trump at least felt some shady shenanigans surrounded the circumstances. You may split hairs on the definition of legal here and there, but Donald Trump Jr. in March of 2017 that he couldn't recall any meetings with any Russians, certainly "none that were set up", and "none that I was representing the campaign in any way, shape or form". If that were under oath, instead of to the NYT, he'd be up for perjury right now.
You want to draw an equivalency between son/inner circle TrumpJr's activities, personally, which include meeting directly with oligarch agents actively seeking a quid pro quo and, later, extensively lying about it, with what is essentially a third party investigator (albeit a paid one) beating the bushes for what they can find, compiling it into a report, and publishing it. I don't think you understand how insane you sound.
All Ray understands is that he's managed to get otherwise rational people to keep responding to his gibberish as if he's susceptible to facts and logic. Which he's never been since the day he first arrived here.
A wants to know if her husband is cheating. She hires a private investigator, who hires an operative, who hears from some wiseguys he knows about the husband’s habits.
B wants to know if his wife is cheating. A wiseguy hears about this, calls him, the husband says “I love it!” and agrees to meet up.
Of course there’s only one or two people here who think A & B did the same thing, so I’m analogizing to the choir. But you have to go through some contortions to equate them.
Well, I'm glad you asked. Not that great.Well, at least those who reported it have the support of law enforcement.Or not.
Nice to be reminded why I avoided this shithole for 25 years. Maybe Trump will come by after Utica and give them a thumbs up.
Not to step on Andy's outrage that anyone would NOT vote for a Democratic candidate, but with 99% of the vote reported, Balderson leads by 1,688, with the Green Party candidate receiving 1,120 votes:
Whew, that was close. Now the GOP can relax and sail to victory in November. Good thing.
They're one town over.
Well, other than the one three months ago.
Nate Silver without all the boring math :-)
Actually, it was a bit closer than a "point or two" -- looks like the margin will be somewhere in the neighborhood of .5 to .75. Automatic recount at .5 or less - O'Connor could still get there depending where the few straggler precincts are in Delaware county.
So Balderson gets to go to DC - probably deal with a messy and potentially ugly Sept budget vote, while O'Connor gets to stay in the district and campaign for the rematch in 90 days :-)
Oh - and the RCCC dumped 3.2 million of its warchest (D trips spent about 600K).
I tend to doubt this seat moves up the target list - Dem turnout remained very, very good (bigger than expected proportion of the vote in blue Franklin), it was pretty low R turnout that made this close... figure with statewide races - bigger R turnout in November than this go 'round. But who knows.
Anyway, a 30something Dem just nearly won a seat that the Dems haven't seriously placed in ~40 years. What's more - this is actually the kind of where Dem over-performance has lagged... fairly suburban/exurban, pretty wealthy for a non metroplex district.
Would have been nice to headline another win - but I feel pretty confidant no GOPers (except Trump) will be crowing about it.
We did fight for our freedom against those northerners, after all, I mean.... Er, what? We're where?
Huh.
Well, I'm sure there are fine people on both sides. Trump will be here to tell us.
Go ahead, Andy. Say something substantive about this issue. I dare you.
Looks like Balderson is going to squeak by in Ohio by a few hundred votes.
And just IMAGINE how well he'll do when he's buoyed by the power of incumbency in his next election, which is in what, 5 or 6 weeks?
#266:
So Balderson gets to go to DC - probably deal with a messy and potentially ugly Sept budget vote, while O'Connor gets to stay in the district and campaign for the rematch in 90 days :-)
Actually, Troy Balderson (R) would be favored in November, win or lose tonight.
Fake News is saying that the final result will grind down to the provisional and absentee ballots, which are expected to break Democratic but perhaps not enough for O'Connor.
But who gets to be a Representative for the ~30 remaining days of the House calendar doesn't matter, as a thousand-vote win or a thousand-vote loss in this district are equal disasters for the national GOP. The previous two House races in OH-12 were just decided by winning margins of 37% and 40%.
Dave Wasserman (Cook Report) notes:
Go ahead, Andy. Say something substantive about this issue. I dare you.
Tread lightly, Andy. Ray is not a man who just says belligerent shit with absolutely nothing to back it up.
Well, that seems to be what the reporting you excerpted suggests. Interesting that you strain to make these incidents say something about an entire region, while not, to my recollection, making similar claims about bad behavior in more urban areas. How do a few leaflets stack up against 13 Dead, 72 Shot In Chicago Over The Weekend?
Thank you. I am not a twitterer.
From someone who can't understand the internet, I can see that conclusion.
Interesting that you strain to make these incidents say something about an entire region
It wasn't a strain at all. It's not like I was struggling with web ads about unreal numbers.
Please don't concoct a response to what "the left" thinks, or what Andy thinks, or what Hillary did with her server. There are substantive points outlined in #255, such as TrumpJr's possible perjury issues, that make the Clinton campaign acts materially different from the Trump campaign w/r/t Russian "influence".
Clapper's losing it... maybe he should click on one of those THESE NINE FOODS BOOST THE MIND - NUMBER SIX WILL SHOCK YOU! ads.
First, I imagine paper stacks up very poorly against bullets. Usually, you need something stronger to stop them.
Second, I'm not sure what one thing has to do with another.... Unless, is it "Sure, the Klan is bad - but those people they hate in those city ghettos are worse!"
Third, if we are to go there - or at least, if Clapper is going to go there and we are to play along - then I suppose we should do the math.
It looks like Oneida county's population is about 225K. Chicago's population is about 2.7 million....
It appears Trump and Clapper will be crowing about winning a deep red district by less than a point, following more than 3 million of GOP spending, a Trump visit, and Kasich ad.
I'd still liquidate the entire lot just on general principle.
There are about 8400 provisional and absentee (not sure I understand why absentees aren't counted yet, but whatever) votes left in OH-12...
Tread lightly, Andy. Ray is not a man who just says belligerent #### with absolutely nothing to back it up.
And he's doubly cute when he starts daring people.
It wasn't a strain at all.
That, too, reflects on you.
Smells more like simple ignorance to me. This is one of the wealthiest and widest-spread families, and have been famous for over 200 years. The fact that they are European based as opposed to American may be some excuse for ignorance -- but not a good one.
The
truthlies of a Trumpster. No one was unaware of the Rothschilds.This is one of the wealthiest and widest-spread families, and have been famous for over 200 years.
Something everyone knew. You yourself brought up the wine. Was it known and identified in all those movies as a Jewish-owned wine?
**Jeter Fist Pump**
DING DING DING DING
RDP is a rank amateur compared to Clapper.
**Emphatic Jeter Fist Bump**
I have no idea what this sidebar has been about as I haven't been following it. But for what it's worth, and I imagine this will come as no surprise to anyone here:
1. I was unaware of the Rothschilds. Had never heard of them before.
2. I wouldn't have thought that it was a Jewish name, but, then, I don't go around wondering what names match with what ethnicities.
Don't be mean. That same man has done a lot of outreach to at-risk youth.
Sugarbear = SBB = FLTB = ..
He's still here, when the orderlies let him have Internet access. The person you're thinking of, however, is Snapper. He left OTP (but not BBTF) after the election.
But you forget about Ray! Who is not just ignorant of everything, but proud of it!
EDIT: The best part of Ray's proclamation of ignorance is his attempt at virtue signaling by saying "I don't go around wondering what names match with what ethnicities," as if knowing this required some sort of deep inquiry which is beneath Ray, as opposed to basic knowledge of the world. I mean, would anyone say, "I didn't realize Joe DiMaggio was Italian-American, but then again, I don't go around wondering what names match with what ethnicities"?
Kinda sounds pretty great. There's so little bad happening there that people have the time and energy to waste worrying about nothingburgers.
And I get a quick and dirty Canadian cops killing more than 25x the number of people per capita as UK cops.
I didn't say other factors don't matter at all. Training, recruitment, qualification, standards, culture (especially gun culture of course), and so on, matter a lot. But if you don't believe armed police leads to more police killing people, well... London Bridge is falling dow... which makes it an excellent investment opportunity!
Speaking of which, I always assumed Inigo Jones had some kind of connection to Spain. It turns out his father was also named Inigo, but as far as anyone can tell there's not a Spanish connection.
Perhaps the family was just a big fan of Inigo Montoya.
EDIT: Also, I'm coming across a lot of women named Lettice in the 17th century. It's a shame that's gone out of fashion, lovely name.
I'm sure none of the 2 or 3 black kids in town disagree.
There's so little bad happening there that people have the time and energy to waste worrying about nothingburgers.
You guys never answer the question when nothing becomes something. Multiple KKK flyers and a lynching effigy over a three-month period is nothing, so what's actually something to care about? Libernihilism uber alles, I suppose.
My apologies for my error to everyone.
BDC's sarcasm sounded so much like Clapper's truth that I got lost.
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