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Monday, July 30, 2018

OTP 2018 July 30: Now Running for Office, Adam Greenberg. You May Remember His First At-Bat.

Greenberg dug in for the first pitch, slightly bending his knees. It was a 92-mile-an-hour fastball.

“You get three-tenths of a second,” Greenberg said. “The first tenth I’m thinking don’t bail because if it’s a curve I look stupid, and it’s strike one. The second tenth I realized the ball wasn’t breaking. By the third tenth, my only thought was to get out of the way, and the only thing I could do was to turn into the catcher.”

 

In the end, Greenberg did go back to the minors — for eight more years. It was a struggle. He had suffered a concussion from the beaning and was then left with vertigo symptoms and vision issues. He did not play baseball the rest of that season and, a year later, with him back in the minor leagues and flailing, the Cubs made the decision to release him.


(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

 

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:22 AM | 1266 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: beaning, cubs, off topic, politics

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   1. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 08:59 AM (#5717870)
House Republicans Are In Total Disarray

“In other words, this year’s legislative crunch time is about to get very real but House Republicans have little leadership, no plan, a very divided caucus, are very likely to be distracted and are relying on a notoriously unreliable Donald Trump to do the right thing.”

“This is almost a textbook definition of political and legislative chaos.”



Thankfully Trump to the rescue! Trump threatens another government shutdown — this one, a month before midterms

The government runs out of money at the end of September, a deadline congressional Republicans are eager to meet in order to avoid any additional drama before the November elections. But that’s been made all the more complicated by Trump, who nearly vetoed a spending package earlier this year because it didn’t fund his border wall, and is now threatening to do so again with even more sweeping hardline immigration demands.

On Sunday, Trump tweeted that he would again be willing to veto a spending bill, if “Democrats do not give us the votes” on everything from border security, so-called “catch and release” and the diversity visa lottery.


As a partisan Democrat I have to admit that Trump's threat is not that scary. I don't think voters will be amused by the Government shutting down, but since the GOP controls the government it is up to them if the government stays open or not.
   2. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:31 AM (#5717881)
   3. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:36 AM (#5717882)
Hahahahaha

For those who don't click on links, here's the subject matter:
Russian soldiers guard the remnants of Trump’s Hollywood Walk of Fame Star

Guerrilla theater at its best.
   4. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:47 AM (#5717888)
Did you explain to him that the primary job of the police is to enforce the will of the propertied class against the proletariat?
No, but I have patiently sat him down and explained that Tennessee v Garner says that he can’t just run around shooting suspected badguys.

So far, it hasn’t taken.

(To be fair, it hasn’t taken for real cops, either.)
   5. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5717897)
No, but I have patiently sat him down and explained that Tennessee v Garner says that he can’t just run around shooting suspected badguys.


If he didn't arrest you for your impertinent attitude towards authority, then I'd say he's ahead of the curve.
   6. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 10:13 AM (#5717901)
Weirdly GOP candidates don't seem to be following Clapper's lead - Trump Owns the Booming Economy. Republicans on the Trail Barely Mention It.

A Wesleyan Media Project analysis of national advertising data from Kantar Media/CMAG also shows Republicans are rarely bragging to voters about the economy’s strength.

Republicans have reason to doubt the efficacy of an economic message in hotly contested midterm campaigns, which have historically been referendums on the sitting president. The last time the economy grew 4 percent in a quarter was in the middle of 2014, under President Barack Obama, just before Senate Democrats lost nine seats — and their majority — that fall.

For their part, Democrats are weaponizing the tax law — which is mired in only middling popularity — against Republican opponents in some key races. Their critiques have been fed by government statistics showing that wages for typical American workers have not risen over the past year, after adjusting for inflation, even though Republicans promised the tax cuts would unleash rapid wage growth.
   7. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: July 30, 2018 at 10:17 AM (#5717902)
Daily Hypocrisy Update!

The DHU went on full tilt over the weekend. Sure, the usual suspects were doing their usual thing, with some particularly cunning linguistics surrounding a Steele shaft, but then this whopper came forth (#1168), from none other than Mr. I-invented-Concession-Accepted:
Nobody but nobody obsessively and bizarrely declares ersatz victory better than you
Ladies and Gentlemen, we have an alltime winner!

OTP Homophobe-in-Chief Ray and his Fellator General SBB can now relax their gag reflexes efforts, the competition has closed.
   8. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 10:23 AM (#5717906)
For their part, Democrats are weaponizing the tax law — which is mired in only middling popularity — against Republican opponents in some key races. Their critiques have been fed by government statistics showing that wages for typical American workers have not risen over the past year, after adjusting for inflation, even though Republicans promised the tax cuts would unleash rapid wage growth.

Meanwhile...

Since the tax cuts were enacted, Oracle Corp. CEO Safra Catz sold $250 million worth of shares in her company — the largest executive payday this year. Product development head Thomas Kurian sold $85 million. The sales came after the company announced a $12 billion share repurchase.
Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga sold $44.4 million of stock in May, the largest single cash-out by an executive of the company in at least 10 years, months after the company announced a $4 billion buyback of its own stock.

Two days after Eastman Chemical announced it would purchase $2 billion of its own stock, CEO Mark Costa sold 55,000 shares for $5.4 million.
* * *
Following the tax cuts, roughly 28 percent of companies in the S&P 500 mentioned plans to return some of their tax savings to shareholders, according to Morgan Stanley. Public companies announced more than $600 billion in buybacks in the first half of this year — already toppling the previous annual record.

Year to date, buybacks have doubled from the same period a year ago, Merrill Lynch said in a July 24 report, citing its clients’ trading activity. “Last week we noted that buyback activity [was] poised to accelerate over the next six weeks, and indeed, corporate clients’ buybacks picked up to a two-month high and the 6th-highest level in our data history,” the company said.
   9. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 10:35 AM (#5717911)
Well, my American pension has a 0.8% rate of return this year, but the year's only half done. So - if they wanted to talk about the economy, I might listen.
   10. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:04 AM (#5717926)
Weirdly GOP candidates don't seem to be following Clapper's lead - Trump Owns the Booming Economy. Republicans on the Trail Barely Mention It.


Quite possibly because none of the benefits of the "booming economy" are making it down to the rubes and marks that voted for Trump, and are now the only reliable votes for his party's accessories.
   11. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:07 AM (#5717928)
One can't be aware that one is being played; if one is aware, then definitionally one is not being played. But it's not clear what this possibility even means. If the Russians were telling the truth then they weren't being played; if the Russians were lying, then why would this constitute "material usable against Trump" any more than Steele simply fabricating it would?

Just as Steele could have fabricated his dossier, he could have ignored indications that he was being fed suspect material, or just been duped. He only needed sufficient material to circulate to his echo chamber to trigger the FBI inquiry that gave the Clinton campaign their insurance policy - being able to leak that the Trumo campaign was being investigated for "collusion".
   12. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:21 AM (#5717935)
Just as Steele could have fabricated his dossier, he could have ignored indications that he was being fed suspect material, or just been duped. He only needed sufficient material to circulate to his echo chamber to trigger the FBI inquiry that gave the Clinton campaign their insurance policy - being able to leak that the Trumo campaign was being investigated for "collusion".


All this post needed was chemtrails or Reptilian Mind Control to be the perfect post.
   13. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:23 AM (#5717937)
Would I get partial credit for suggesting that (((Soros))) helped fund it?
   14. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:25 AM (#5717939)
Disillusioned GOP moderates (Warning PDF!)

Democracy Corps just completed focus groups with key segments of the Republican Party. They confirm very clearly that Donald Trump riling up his Tea Party and Evangelical base both fuels the Democratic resistance and pushes away many in the GOP. Trump’s base strategy is especially disillusioning for the GOP moderates who are one-quarter of the Republican base. The same is true for nearly half of the secular conservative Republicans who are roughly one-fifth of the Republican base and the subject of our next focus group report to be released.



Republicans Begin to Split Ahead of the Election


First Read: “Two things can be true: More Republican voters than ever approve of Trump’s job performance, according to the latest NBC/WSJ poll. And on a variety of issues — tariffs, immigration, Trump’s dealings with Russia — we are seeing Republican lawmakers breaking from the president on key policies and issues. And that’s no small thing.”

“Of course, in the summer and fall of 2016, Republicans were busy distancing themselves from Trump (over the ‘Access Hollywood’ video, the attacks on the Khan family, the attacks on Judge Curiel). And it all worked out for Trump and the GOP.”

“But you always want to be more unified — rather than less unified — heading into an election.”


I must admit I am enjoying the GOP in disarray stories.
   15. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:27 AM (#5717941)
...ignored indications ... been duped...his echo chamber... the Clinton campaign.... able to leak.... .... Trumo campaign... being investigated ...."collusion".


I've discovered the the secret to reading Clapper and having him make sense! It's a very finicky algorithm to determine which words to ignore.
   16. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:30 AM (#5717942)
Would I get partial credit for suggesting that (((Soros))) helped fund it?


Depends, I mean there is clearly an intersection between the White Supremacist GOP and the Weird Conspiracy Theory GOP, but it is not a total overlap.
   17. BDC Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:31 AM (#5717944)
Donald Trump riling up his Tea Party and Evangelical base both fuels the Democratic resistance and pushes away many in the GOP. Trump’s base strategy is especially disillusioning for the GOP moderates who are one-quarter of the Republican base. The same is true for nearly half of the secular conservative Republicans who are roughly one-fifth of the Republican base


I would be more heartened by this if I thought that there was the remotest chance any of those semi-mythical Republicans would ever vote the slightest bit leftward. Most Texan Republicans would rather vote for a vinegaroon than for anyone who would raise their taxes a nickel.
   18. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:33 AM (#5717945)
Just as Steele could have fabricated his dossier, he could have ignored indications that he was being fed suspect material, or just been duped. He only needed sufficient material to circulate to his echo chamber to trigger the FBI inquiry that gave the Clinton campaign their insurance policy - being able to leak that the Trumo campaign was being investigated for "collusion".

All this post needed was chemtrails or Reptilian Mind Control to be the perfect post.

YR's link in the previous thread "How They Defend President Steamed Hams" is a perfect catch-all summary of everything Clapper has posted about Trump for the past 18 months.
   19. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:34 AM (#5717947)
I would be more heartened by this if I thought that there was the remotest chance any of those semi-mythical Republicans would ever vote the slightest bit leftward. Most Texan Republicans would rather vote for a vinegaroon than for anyone who would raise their taxes a nickel.


There are more moderate voters in non-Texas regions, but more to the point it is not always who they vote for, but whether they vote - especially in mid term elections.
   20. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:36 AM (#5717949)
mmmmm mmmmm! Steamed Hams!
   21. dlf Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:39 AM (#5717953)
... rather vote for a vinegaroon than for anyone who would raise their taxes a nickel.


You mean other than the one in office @1600 today? Continually raising import taxes while promising $12B in welfare payments doesn't seem too fiscally conservative, but I could be mistaken.
   22. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:41 AM (#5717955)
Just as Steele could have fabricated his dossier, he could have ignored indications that he was being fed suspect material, or just been duped.
In which case I return to this: if the Russians wanted to get out misinformation about Trump (or true information, for that matter), then why secretly provide it to a random guy in the UK? That hardly seems like the best way to ensure that people learn about it. (I'm not sure what their motive would be for any of this -- but if it's the "sow chaos" theory, then that only bolsters my question. Why not push it on Twitter or FB or Wikileaks?)

Here's another reason to be skeptical of all these conspiracy theories: if the Russians were going to fabricate stuff (or if Steele was), why not fabricate something better? Why not some documentary evidence of something? Why not something more concretely damning about Trump personally? Why spend so much effort trying to dirty up Carter Page rather than a more central figure? (One could argue that the more specific the inventions are, the easier to discredit -- and yet, they were very specific about Michael Cohen going to Prague.)
   23. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 11:42 AM (#5717957)
I would be more heartened by this if I thought that there was the remotest chance any of those semi-mythical Republicans would ever vote the slightest bit leftward. Most Texan Republicans would rather vote for a vinegaroon than for anyone who would raise their taxes a nickel.
Again: Republicans staying home is all the Democrats need.

EDIT: Mouse can have some cheese-flavored coke.
   24. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5717962)
Israel Expelling Two Italian Artists Who Painted Mural of Ahed Tamimi on Separation Wall

Israel is expelling two Italian graffiti artists who were painting a mural of Ahed Tamimi, a Palestinian teenager released Sunday from Israeli prison, on the separation barrier in the West Bank city of Bethlehem.

The two, arrested Saturday, were questioned and then transferred to the Interior Ministry, which decided to revoke their tourist visas and to order them to leave the country within 72 hours, the Border Police said.

(...)Tamimi, 17, from Nabi Saleh in the West Bank, turned into a protest icon after she was filmed slapping an Israeli soldier. She was detained for three months before being sentenced in March to eight months in jail after reaching a plea deal.

"The resistance will continue until the end of the occupation," Tamimi said upon her release.
   25. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:06 PM (#5717963)
It's true that Republicans staying home is sufficient. It's also true that the Republican party is leaking educated white people, and the racial minorities they have to leak (i.e., not black people or natives) to the Democrats, same as the Democrats are leaking white people who've never been to college to the Republicans. It doesn't hurt to try to lean into the former trend, and try to stem the latter.
   26. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:10 PM (#5717965)
In which case I return to this: if the Russians wanted to get out misinformation about Trump (or true information, for that matter), then why secretly provide it to a random guy in the UK? That hardly seems like the best way to ensure that people learn about it. (I'm not sure what their motive would be for any of this -- but if it's the "sow chaos" theory, then that only bolsters my question. Why not push it on Twitter or FB or Wikileaks?)

Here's another reason to be skeptical of all these conspiracy theories: if the Russians were going to fabricate stuff (or if Steele was), why not fabricate something better? Why not some documentary evidence of something? Why not something more concretely damning about Trump personally? Why spend so much effort trying to dirty up Carter Page rather than a more central figure? (One could argue that the more specific the inventions are, the easier to discredit -- and yet, they were very specific about Michael Cohen going to Prague.)


Once you realize that in the mind of the Trumpkins, he can do no wrong and any suggestion otherwise is merely part of a massive plot to hurt him, the answers to all these questions become clear.

So does the pointlessness in asking them.
   27. greenback slays lewks Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:30 PM (#5717972)
John Cochrane is sympathetic to single payer.

It's coming!
   28. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:38 PM (#5717974)
In which case I return to this: if the Russians wanted to get out misinformation about Trump (or true information, for that matter), then why secretly provide it to a random guy in the UK? That hardly seems like the best way to ensure that people learn about it. (I'm not sure what their motive would be for any of this -- but if it's the "sow chaos" theory, then that only bolsters my question. Why not push it on Twitter or FB or Wikileaks?)

Just like the Clinton Campaign, the Russians may have valued Steele's reputation to bolster the surface credibility of the dossier's material. Those same allegations coming directly from the Russians, with no corroboration, would have been even less believable.
   29. bfan Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:41 PM (#5717976)
Well, my American pension has a 0.8% rate of return this year, but the year's only half done. So - if they wanted to talk about the economy, I might listen.


well, last year it had a 20% increase (unless your plan has poor investors), so there is that to figure in for over an 18 month period and your 0.8 is off a 20% higher figure (because of the 12 months before), so I believe your plan has done (or should have done) quite well.
   30. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5717978)

Just like the Clinton Campaign, the Russians may have valued Steele's reputation to bolster the surface credibility of the dossier's material. Those same allegations coming directly from the Russians, with no corroboration, would have been even less believable.
Why would it need to be believable? Their goal isn't to see Trump prosecuted or impeached. Indeed, they're not even expecting Trump to win (nobody was, at that point), so all they're trying to do is sow chaos, it only had to last for five months.

Also, I didn't say that Putin should call a press conference and announce it. Of course that wouldn't have been believable. They had plenty of fake twitter and FB accounts spewing all sorts of fake stuff. Why not use those to get the information out?
   31. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:45 PM (#5717979)
The problem with treating healthcare like a market is that after you've slipped and fallen on your chainsaw, it's hard to be a rational actor ;) And typically, if you call a hospital and ask, you'll be unable to find anyone who'll even ballpark a cost estimate.

But of course, he's wrong about the left saying "a single payer that everyone can use," and meaning "a single payer that everyone must use." - the usual comparison point for Americans is the Canadian system, which is a single payer that everyone can use, while you're free to use private doctors, hospitals, and the like. But, a single payer whose main goal is to deny payment is so vastly superior to private insurance companies, that almost everyone opts for the single payer. There are certainly exceptions - I'd bet basically everyone on the Blue Jays is paying for private health care (to make it baseball relevant). I believe the same is true in the UK, even though it's a government run healthcare providers, unlike Canada which is mostly private run healthcare providers taking publicly organised insurance.
   32. McCoy Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:52 PM (#5717981)
All three of my retirement funds are posting a negative rate of return this year so far. My oldest one, which I've had for 6 or 7 years now, has posted about a 13% annual rate of return since inception.

At the beginning of the year I had planned to get back into investing in stocks on an individual basis. Even moved some money into an investing money market account but after about two months of looking for something to invest in I opted out of individual stock investing. Looked to me like stocks were just too expensive and I didn't see them going up much in the short term with a good chance of them declining.
   33. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:53 PM (#5717982)
well, last year it had a 20% increase (unless your plan has poor investors), so there is that to figure in for over an 18 month period and your 0.8 is off a 20% higher figure (because of the 12 months before), so I believe your plan has done (or should have done) quite well.


A little less, but although that principle is correct, voters have short memories (and of course, will rightly and wrongly credit Obama with things that happened real early in Trump's administration).
   34. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: July 30, 2018 at 12:56 PM (#5717985)
Our pollsters should ask better questions. I think a “Would you like to never get a medical bill ever again?” question would get like a cool 98% approval.
   35. McCoy Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:06 PM (#5717988)
Appears it has changed a bit as of right now on my Roth IRA I've got a 2.83% ROI and a 7.69% ROI since inception about 4 years ago. I was getting a pretty steady 8.5% ROI per year up until this year. My old 401k is up 4.55% for the year and up 13% since inception 6 years ago.
   36. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:07 PM (#5717990)
Why would it need to be believable? Their goal isn't to see Trump prosecuted or impeached. Indeed, they're not even expecting Trump to win (nobody was, at that point), so all they're trying to do is sow chaos, it only had to last for five months.

Also, I didn't say that Putin should call a press conference and announce it. Of course that wouldn't have been believable. They had plenty of fake twitter and FB accounts spewing all sorts of fake stuff. Why not use those to get the information out?

If the Russians had any sophistication at all about these matters, it's not difficult for them to have concluded that Steele was a more useful conduit for their material than their own bogus twitter accounts. Steele & his allies had access and influence with the media and intelligence community, unlike the fake FB posts & bogus tweets which no one paid any attention to.
   37. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:14 PM (#5717995)
1428


But then their ultimate defense of Trump's lying is little more than an endlessly repeated chorus of "What of it?". This has been Ray's main rhetorical device ever since the day he stumbled upon Scott Adams, and he shows no sign of letting up.


We're at stage 2: "OK, it DID happen, but it's no big deal. It's a nothingburger. There's no there there."
   38. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5718002)
If the Russians had any sophistication at all about these matters, it's not difficult for them to have concluded that Steele was a more useful conduit for their material than their own bogus twitter accounts. Steele & his allies had access and influence with the media and intelligence community, unlike the fake FB posts & bogus tweets which no one paid any attention to.
Sorry, haven't read everything related, but assuming this is the case... to what end? Is the premise that "Russia" sowed stuff to Steele while sort of hoping that someday it would get used... to do what? Discredit Trump?

- But, they are on record as saying they wanted to bolster Trump, not discredit him.
- But, the dossier didn't really contain any evidence that would change any Trumpeter's mind anyway. This was post-Access Hollywood.
- But, they had no way of really knowing if the dossier would see the light of day - and in fact, the dossier was, for all intents and purposes, ignored throughout the election cycle.

In just seems... inefficient. And while some of the info in the dossier may have been part of some of the impetus behind the FBI's investigation, my impression (which could be mistaken) is that there's not much for which the dossier is the *only* source - that is, the dossier is a compilation of stuff that individually could be found from other sources. So while the dossier may (or may not) have been a convenient aggregator, there was plenty out there to make (say) Page or whomever look fishy.
------
I'm totally on board with the "Russia didn't care who won so much as sought to sow chaos and discord" theory, and under that premise, just mucking around with anyone associated with either campaign who was dumb enough to muck, and looking for exactly this scenario to unfold (where the country and government are obsessed with the investigation and therefore less able to oppose stuff Russia does worldwide), is perfectly plausible. But even on that line of reasoning, how would "Russia" have known that Steele was (however tenuously) an "agent" of the HRC campaign?
   39. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:31 PM (#5718005)
Senator Rand Paul announced his support of Brett Kavanaugh's Supreme Court nomination today. That puts the count at 49 Senators supporting the nomination, 42 opposed, and 9 not yet taking a position. Of those 9, 2 are Republicans (Collins & Murkowski), and 7 are Democrats (Donnelly, Heitkamp, Jones, Kaine, Manchin, McCaskill & Tester).
   40. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5718008)
Rand Paul is very brave. Nobody grandstands before a rote GOP vote quite like Paul. You gotta respect that.
   41. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:37 PM (#5718010)
@KamalaHarris
Every American deserves to have a roof over their head and keep the lights on if they work a full-time job.

@dril
i just need to say, to anyone reading this.. You are Important, You are loved, and You belong in this world, if you have over 50000 followers
   42. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:50 PM (#5718014)

Good Twitter thread which shows startling parallels between the conservative media's response to Nixon and to Trump. (Including the fact that George Will was a strong opponent of both.) And that the conservative public then -- as now -- rallied around a Republican leader because he was being attacked by the left, so much so that when conservative figures also attacked the leader, the conservative figures were denounced as (in effect) RINOs.
   43. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5718015)
Nothing to see here, move along.

Turnout in this year’s U.S. House primaries is up, especially on the Democratic side

Americans appear to be more engaged with this year’s midterm elections than they typically are. Not only do about half of registered voters report being more enthusiastic than usual about voting, up from 40% in 2014, but turnout has surged in the 31 states that already have held their congressional primaries – particularly among Democrats.
   44. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5718016)

Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani has angrily compared Michael Cohen, the president’s former long-time lawyer, to famous traitors Benedict Arnold, Brutus and Iago.

“You’ve got a really bad guy here,” said Giuliani, during a 32-minute long, rambling interview on CNN on Monday.

Cohen, whose premises and home were raided by the FBI in April on a referral from special counsel Robert Mueller concerning possible campaign finance law violations, has not been charged with any crime. But he has strongly hinted he may help investigators looking into Russian election interference and links between Trump aides and Moscow.
Sign up to receive the top US stories every morning

Last week Cohen’s lawyer released a tape of Cohen discussing with Trump a payment to a Playboy model who claims an affair with the president, which Trump denies. It was then reported that Cohen says Trump knew of a meeting in New York in June 2016 between key aides and several Russians promising compromising information on Hillary Clinton.
Advertisement

On CNN, Giuliani repeatedly attacked Cohen’s credibility. Of his own avowals of Cohen’s honesty earlier this year, he said: “George Washington would have said that about Benedict Arnold at a certain point in time.”

...

Giuliani continued: “What the hell are you picking on me for saying [Cohen] was an honest, honorable man when I didn’t know he had recorded a conversation with his client? He was shaking people down for money, he was lying about what was on a tape and manipulating, doctoring tapes?

“I didn’t know any of that. George Washington didn’t know Benedict Arnold was a traitor.”


Graun
   45. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:15 PM (#5718026)
Donald Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani has angrily compared Michael Cohen, the president’s former long-time lawyer, to famous traitors Benedict Arnold, Brutus and Iago.


Can you imagine Fat Donnie trying to come up with classical references like that? "Iago was not loyal. He turned on Jafar as soon as things were looking bad."
   46. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5718031)
Good Twitter thread which shows startling parallels between the conservative media's response to Nixon and to Trump. (Including the fact that George Will was a strong opponent of both.) And that the conservative public then -- as now -- rallied around a Republican leader because he was being attacked by the left, so much so that when conservative figures also attacked the leader, the conservative figures were denounced as (in effect) RINOs.

That long thread by Joshua Tait is not only historically accurate, but down the page he mentions that when George Will criticized Nixon in the pages of National Review, 85% of the letters NR received in reply were pro-Nixon. Here's what the following tweet says:
The pro-Nixon letters made familiar arguments:
-Nixon is the greatest president of the century
- Nixon has issues, but anyone liberals hate that much is good.
- Removing a president due to media pressure will damage the country
- Will’s hatred for Nixon invalidates his comments

Definitely deja vu all over again.
   47. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5718032)
99 Days to Go, and the Midterm Elections Battleground Is Not What Was Expected

The battleground in the fight for control of the House is starting to come into focus with 99 days to go until the November election. It’s not exactly the battleground that analysts expected.

It’s not dominated by well-educated, suburban districts that voted for Hillary Clinton. Instead, the battleground is broad, and it includes a long list of working-class and rural districts that voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016.

The broader battleground is a positive development for Democrats. It’s a reflection of how much the Republican structural advantage in the House has eroded over the last year. What remains of it isn’t helping the Republicans as much as analysts assumed it would, at least not yet.
   48. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5718042)
For Greg K and other history types ... The Trump Analogy Everybody’s Overlooked

In seeking to understand Trump's rise to power, historians have investigated parallels with those of Hitler and Mussolini. However, striking similarities—from almost 350 years ago—with another ruler who secretly colluded with a foreign enemy have not yet been noted.

In 1670, Charles II of England, whose father had been tried by Parliament and executed in 1649 as a tyrant who waged war against his own subjects, concluded a secret agreement with France, England's most powerful rival and longstanding enemy.

According to the terms of the secret Treaty of Dover, which were known only to two of Charles's closest advisors, Charles agreed to declare himself Catholic and to make England a Catholic country, as well as to aid Louis XIV in his planned war of aggression against the Dutch Republic. In return, Louis paid Charles annual subsidies amounting to £250,000-£500,000 (the equivalent today of about a quarter or a half billion dollars per year), a sum that Charles used largely for his own lavish expenses, including paying off his numerous mistresses.


Much more on the other side of the link.
   49. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5718043)
Rudy is having an awesome day...

Or as chief Trumpkins likes to call them - those damnable days that end in 'y'.
   50. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5718047)
Rudy is having an awesome day...

Or as chief Trumpkins likes to call them - those damnable days that end in 'y'.
"Remember all those things that I said happened? I meant that they didn't happen. I misspoke. I said 'did' when I meant 'didn't.' It's kind of a double negative."


EDIT: You know all the tv cop shows where the suspect says, "I wasn't even at the jewelry store at the time," and the detective turns around and says, "Uh, I never mentioned anything about a jewelry store"? That's Rudy right now. (The suspect, not the detective.)
   51. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5718050)
"Collusion? Oh no, that's just the Aurora Borealis!"
   52. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5718051)
How could she have recognised my face your honour? I was wearing a balaclava!
   53. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5718053)
Holy cow - from the link in #49:
“The jury for this case is the American public,” he said at one point, adding that “maybe one of the reasons we reemphasize the point about the legitimacy of the investigation is we want to show that maybe [Trump] shouldn’t be testifying at an investigation that has no legitimacy.”

Before hanging up, he drove the point home: “I also understand the confusion. Believe me, it’s going to get more confusing when these other tapes start coming out. But eventually, when you put them all together, it’s going to mean the President did nothing wrong.”
Keep in mind, this is the call he made to Fox, to CLARIFY what he'd muddied up earlier. But wait, there's more!
Giuliani told Fox News that he and Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow had heard from reporters who’d been told about another meeting “in which they [Don Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, and ‘possibly others’], out of the presence of the President, discussed the meeting with the Russians.”

He categorically denied that the un-reported meeting he’d just brought up for the first time had ever happened.
Keep talking, Rudy. It's gold!
   54. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5718055)
Somebody wanna get Rudy a bigger shovel?
   55. DavidFoss Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:02 PM (#5718056)
According to the terms of the secret Treaty of Dover, which were known only to two of Charles's closest advisors,

One of my relatives was talking about this recently. She's reading The Day the King Defaulted about the only time England/GB/UK defaulted on its loans. Charles II had a C.A.B.A.L. ministry... the Lords of Clifford, Arlington, Buckingham, Ashley & Lauderdale. It explains why the UK to this day is so strict about not allowing Catholics or Catholic marriages into its line of succession.

We need a cool fake-acronym name for Trump's congressional minions.
   56. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5718057)
What can we ban today? How about the employee cafeteria?
A proposal introduced Tuesday to ban employee cafeterias in future San Francisco office buildings represents more than an effort to boost the city’s restaurant scene, backers say. “People will have to go out and (eat) lunch with the rest of us,” Aaron Peskin, a San Francisco supervisor who co-sponsored the proposal, told The San Francisco Examiner.

What next, arresting brown baggers?
   57. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5718058)
49 - From TFA

On Monday morning, Giuliani said that collusion isn’t a crime


And now we've moved onto stage 3: "OK, it IS a big deal, but it's not illegal."
   58. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:11 PM (#5718061)
And now we've moved onto stage 3: "OK, it IS a big deal, but it's not illegal."


Refresh my memory -- is "Oh yeah? Well BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY!" stage 5 or 6?
   59. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:18 PM (#5718065)
We need a cool fake-acronym name for Trump's congressional minions.


I don't think there's any better term for them than GOPniks. It has the GOP right there, and a "gopnik" is Russian slang for a goon.
   60. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:19 PM (#5718070)
What can we ban today? How about the employee cafeteria?


You laugh but cities like Seattle and SF are having a very rough time grappling with the insane profit margins (and power) of their biggest companies. I'm not as familiar with SF but here in Seattle the South Lake Union neighborhood has essentially become a vassal of Amazon. Amazon subs the housing and if Amazon folks don't turn out to eat and play (and with the rent how it is for the businesses...) the neighborhood stagnates. Even established local chains like the Tom Douglas brand are having a hard time turning a profit down there.

It really irks me when folks like Clapper concern troll about the problems rich urban areas face. Meanwhile our cities subsidize large swathes of unproductive land and counties. I'm from one of those areas so spare me the salt of the earth #### as well. There's nothing that special about mediocre small towns in the midwest, south, or wherever.
   61. zenbitz Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5718072)
John Cochrane is sympathetic to single payer.


I don't think he's wrong in that hard core leftists (I count myself among them) DO wish for mandatory single payer, but of course we will be happy to take the compromise* of possible single payer.
To argue some substance - the issue with optional single payer is something like the issue with permanent non-citizen residency; it creates 2 classes of people. The primary danger** being that all the "Good Doctors" will work only in private practice for more $$.

But I'll sign on to fix the current mess. And rely on the selflessness and charity of medical professionals to triage the sicker over the wealthier. If not, then we can always legislate it as a precondition for license*** to practice medicine

* note: pure David bait.
** yes to some (see *) this is a feature, not a bug.
*** and that, my friends, is why you cannot have private organization provide licensing authority.


PS: Triple trolling David is like a record, right?
   62. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5718073)
It really irks me when folks like Clapper concern troll about ...


So many choices, so little time before I head out on vacation.
   63. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5718074)
58

Refresh my memory -- is "Oh yeah? Well BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY!" stage 5 or 6?





1018. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: July 27, 2018 at 01:26 PM (#5716904)


974


Yes, although "So what if he did it; it's not illegal" is not actually a new defense; people have been using it all along.



Speaking of repeating oneself, I will do just that, right now...

Trumpism in 5 stages:

1 -- IT NEVER HAPPENED! FAKE NEWS!


2 -- OK, it did happen, but it's not a big deal. It's a nothingburger. There's no there there.

3 -- OK, it is a big deal, but it's not illegal.

4 -- OK, it is illegal, but something something Obama administration something something Crooked Hillary something servers something emails something.

5 -- FAKE NEWS!



So, to answer your question, that would be the onset of stage 4, I think.
   64. zenbitz Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:24 PM (#5718075)
Aaron Peskin, a San Francisco supervisor


I will be the first to admit that SF Supervisors are the worst kind of liberals, and this idea of his is probably terrible. But not more terrible than average!
   65. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5718076)
Giuliani told Fox News that he and Trump lawyer Jay Sekulow had heard from reporters who’d been told about another meeting “in which they [Don Jr., Jared Kushner, Paul Manafort, Rick Gates, and ‘possibly others’], out of the presence of the President, discussed the meeting with the Russians.”

He categorically denied that the un-reported meeting he’d just brought up for the first time had ever happened.
The thing about it is that Rudy narrative is insane. An emissary of the Russian government wants to meet with Trump Jr. to give him dirt on Hillary to help Trump win. Trump Jr. says "I love it," and recognizes that it's important enough to require the time of both Kushner and Manafort, two of the campaign's inner circle. And yet they don't have a single advance meeting to discuss it? Yeah, right.

I mean, it is plausible that Trump Sr. wouldn't be in the meeting (though not that he wouldn't know about it). But to not have such a meeting at all?
   66. zenbitz Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:31 PM (#5718078)
You laugh but cities like Seattle and SF are having a very rough time grappling with the insane profit margins (and power) of their biggest companies.


I feel like this is a real problem. My wife's cousin in NYC referred to this as the "gigantic updraft of capital". My gut reaction is that personal income* taxes are not providing a big enough downward pressure on the highest salary brackets. More and more capital pours in to tech (in SF, both computer tech and biotech) and there is more and more competition for talented engineers and managers which drive salaries (for them!) way up and massively increases turnover.

To be a non-anti-capitalist for a moment, I *think* the capital updraft is, in general, good for people in the area, but the curve probably needs to get flattened a bit. Particularly when you realize the effect on housing (food prices are high but it's just not that big a fraction of a paycheck).


* I don't know the tax-ability status of stock options and other non-salary compensation, aside from 401-K and the like.

EDIT: It's not just the big dogs like Amazon, Apple, Google, Salesforce - it's also the whole startup system.
   67. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:38 PM (#5718080)
EDIT: It's not just the big dogs like Amazon, Apple, Google, Salesforce - it's also the whole startup system.


We don't even have an income tax! Property and use taxes are insane here. And Johnny Programmer, headhunted into a 200k middle management job at Amazon spending $10 a beer after work at the local watering hole isn't nearly enough to offset any of that.
   68. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5718081)
That's why he needs to be able to hire Apu Programmer and pay him $80,000 and some legal fees.
   69. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5718085)
Banning in-house cafeterias seems really dumb. The local economy is still producing those meals for people, and it's not unlikely that Amazon Catering Service (or whatever) is taking care of their workers better than Busboy #4.

I do believe there's something to the line of thought that people making, to be arbitrary, six figures and up probably don't need their lunch SUBSIDIZED, and having that crowd actually lay out some of their cash is more stimulating than not. I don't see how to enforce that, but at least it's not outright dumb.
   70. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:09 PM (#5718089)
From the rollicking link in #49:
On the same day of the dirt meeting, Giuliani said Monday, Cohen (or someone speaking to reporters on his behalf) has claimed “that he was in President Trump’s office, Donald Trump Jr. walked in and told him about the Russian meeting.”

“That is categorically untrue,” Giuliani said. “Did not happen. Two witnesses demonstrate that.”

..........The two witnesses, he told CNN’s Alisyn Camerota Monday morning, are the President and his son.


Also, each Menendez brother had an airtight witness speaking on his behalf.

But due to raging MDS, the Deep State witch hunted them anyway.
   71. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5718090)
A smattering of chattering about the House midterm election:

Harry Enten, 538:
If you were to model out (using data collected by James Campbell through 1984-2008 and then by me from 2010-2016), the Cook ratings at this point suggest like a 40 seat gain +/-20 seats. Obviously not saying that'll happen, but it's another indicator.


Dave Wasserman, Cook Report:
Ironically, only Dem-held seat Rs will win is Lamb's open #PA14.


Super helpful crowdsourcing analysis, following this public request from Wasserman:
42 GOP open/vacant seats is a record since *at least* 1928, b/c my Vital Stats data only goes back to 1930 cycle. Extreme psephology nerds: when's the last year there were more??

Chris Winters: 1862 for sure.

Sam Spencer: 1788.
   72. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:13 PM (#5718092)
Nate Silver, 538:
The aggregate popular vote for the U.S. House—which is basically what the generic ballot is trying to measure—is a useful benchmark for the national environment in Congressional races, but it suffers from a couple of flaws.

One is that whichever party did better in the prior election has more incumbents, and therefore overperforms in the popular vote relative to if everyone was starting from scratch. It can be useful to separate out the incumbency advantage from the partisan environment.

Another is that the popular vote is sensitive to how many districts a party manages to nominate a candidate in. If you fail to nominate someone in a few dozen districts, that can you a couple of points in the popular vote, even if the districts wouldn't have been competitive.

[After] de-emphasizing what happens in non-competitive districts and adjusting for incumbency... the House popular vote somewhat understates D performance in elections since 1994 because R's have almost always had more incumbents. 2012 is a good example; the GOP had *lots* of incumbents after 2010, but Dems did very well in competitive races.

My alternative measure of the partisan environment matches the generic ballot a lot better than the actual popular vote does. This implies the generic ballot has issues with accounting for (i) incumbency and (ii) uncontested races. Put another way, the generic ballot is probably better thought of as a (useful) indicator of the partisan environment, especially in competitive districts, rather than as a literal prediction of the popular vote.

Extra data:

In 2014, 36 Republicans were lucky enough to run for a House seat while having no Democratic opponent.

In 2018, there will be 4 such Republicans. Not a typo, 4.

The comparative totals for Democratic candidates running unopposed are 40 (in 2014) and 38 (this year).
   73. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5718093)
Harry Enten:
Based on polling/expert ratings since 06, I created two simple governor models and averaged em. Result is a Dem gain of 7 in governor races.

Trend in past years has been for non-prez party to gain as we get closer to election day.

If the polling is right, Democrats really have a high ceiling. Could capture 10+ governorships. Most of those polling is of lower quality, so it's best for Dems to tamper expectations... but if a wave was really high... Sky could be the limit for Dems.

Here's how tossup gov races (at this point) eventually went... 2006: non-prez party won 67%, 2010: 67%, 2014: 86%.

If the Senate map is good for Republicans (in terms of seats up), the governor's map is the opposite. It's very good for Democrats.
   74. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:14 PM (#5718094)
Latino Decisions polled the 63 most competitive House districts, as determined by the Cook Report, Sabato’s Crystal Ball and CNN.

The House generic ballot in these 63 most competitive districts is 51% to 38% for the Democrats.

Support for passing the DREAM Act is 79%. Giving 10 million undocumented immigrants path to citizenship gets 71%. Building the Wall gets 36%.

74% blame Donald Trump for kidnaping Mexican children, 73% blame Republicans in Congress, and 54% blame Democrats in Congress. 33% approve of the policy.

Bizarrely, 73% say they are angry about the child-snatching policy, which means that 6% are angry about a policy they support.
   75. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5718095)
NBC/Marist poll, taken in three of 2016's swing states: "Does Trump deserve re-election, or should a new person get a chance?"

Michigan:
Trump deserves re-election: 28%
Want new president: 62%

Wisconsin:
Deserves re-election: 31%
Want new president: 63%

Minnesota:
Deserves re-election: 30%
Want new president: 63%
   76. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:16 PM (#5718096)
What can we ban today? How about the employee cafeteria?


When even Clapper is too aware of the bullshit he's slinging to keep it up...
   77. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:18 PM (#5718097)
If the polling is right, Democrats really have a high ceiling. Could capture 10+ governorships. Most of those polling is of lower quality, so it's best for Dems to tamper expectations...


THAT'S A DEAD GIVEAWAY! THE FIX IS IN! CANCEL ELECTIONS!
   78. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5718099)
That little "gopnik" thing is a gift that keeps on giving.
   79. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5718100)
Nate Silver, this past Wednesday, right after the White House banned a CNN reporter from an event:
I don't always buy "White House is doing Thing X to distract from Issue Y!" theories except when Thing X is trolling the media in which case it's always true.

....and here's what they probably want to distract from. The efforts to impeach Rosenstein probably aren't going anywhere, but they both expose some ugly internal divisions within the GOP and are liable to be very unpopular with swing voters. Not the sort of thing the White House wants much coverage of.

..........The potential for House Republicans to do electorally self-destructive things as they compete to see who's the MAGA-iest potential Speaker in the land seems like an underplayed story.
   80. BrianBrianson Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5718101)
The primary danger** being that all the "Good Doctors" will work only in private practice for more $$.


Where it's done, however, it only happens at a very marginal level. Most people will have minimal to no ability to distinguish doctors by quality, so the number of people who'll want to pay more - where, given healthcare costs, more means a ####### more - for a service that doesn't seem any better is not terribly high.

If you're a doctor living in Ontario, you're free to set up a private clinic, not accept public health insurance, and charge through the nose. Living there for 30 years, I never met a single person who used such a doctor (I mean, that told me about it. Jesse Barfield signed my baseball when I was ~3 - he probably did use such a doctor. But he didn't bring it up.)
   81. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5718103)
2012 is a good example; the GOP had *lots* of incumbents after 2010, but Dems did very well in competitive races.

That's a funny definition of "doing well". Democrats only gained 12 seats in 2012, far less than they had hoped to achieve while winning the White House.
   82. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:26 PM (#5718105)
That little "gopnik" thing is a gift that keeps on giving.


It's also a clue to the identity of one of my 7 Twitter accounts. Collect 'em all, internet sleuths!
   83. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:29 PM (#5718106)
That's a funny definition of "doing well".


Go back to concern trolling cafeteria rules.
   84. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:31 PM (#5718107)
It's also a clue to the identity of one of my 7 Twitter accounts. Collect 'em all, internet sleuths!


Someone spends WAY too much time on Twitter, and I don't mean Juan.
   85. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:38 PM (#5718108)
Clapper, #81:
[Nate Silver:] 2012 is a good example; the GOP had *lots* of incumbents after 2010, but Dems did very well in competitive races.

That's a funny definition of "doing well". Democrats only gained 12 seats in 2012, far less than they had hoped to achieve while winning the White House.


The final House generic ballot margin average in 2012 was Republicans by 0.2%. The GOP led in the generic ballot throughout 2011 and 2012.

The Dems had a lead in just two of the last ten individual generic ballot polls in 2012, and in 15 of the last 50 individual polls, and in 47 of 188 overall. Republicans held a 5% or greater lead in 56 individual polls; Democrats hit +5% nine times. But the Democrats ended up winning the actual vote by 1.2%.

Silver is right.
   86. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5718109)
It's also a clue to the identity of one of my 7 Twitter accounts. Collect 'em all, internet sleuths!

Someone spends WAY too much time on Twitter, and I don't mean Juan.


I figured it would give me 7 times the chance that James Woods would try to sue me to reveal my secret identity. You miss all the shots you don't take.
   87. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 04:41 PM (#5718110)
..........The potential for House Republicans to do electorally self-destructive things as they compete to see who's the MAGA-iest potential Speaker in the land seems like an underplayed story.


You mean like Jim Jordan telling blatant lies about the OSU sexual abuse scandal?

Jordan’s story centers on Ohio State University, where he worked as the assistant wrestling coach in the late 1980s and early 1990s. Former students say that during those years, OSU coaches and administrators ignored reports of sexual abuse and harassment by the wrestling team’s doctor and other faculty members. For weeks, Jordan has denied that he knew about inappropriate sexual behavior of any kind. That contradicts statements from former students who say he was directly informed. But now Jordan is going further. He’s denying not just that he knew about abuse, but also that other coaches or administrators did.

On July 18, Jordan told Bob Frantz, a radio host in Ohio, that “all kinds of coaches … have said the same thing I’ve said, and the reason they’ve said that is because it’s the truth: No one reported anything to us.” The next day, on Fox News, Jordan added: “I knew of no abuse, never heard of it, never had any reported to me. If I had, I’d have dealt with it. Every single coach has said the same thing I have. … And the reason they have all said it is because it’s the truth.” On Friday, Jordan told WMAL radio in Washington that “all the coaches I coached with” were innocent. That same day, on Fox and Friends, Jordan issued a comprehensive denial:

This is something that supposedly happened 30 years ago. If there in fact was abuse, then we want people to get justice, and the truth to come out. But there were hundreds of coaches, hundreds of administrators in that time period. No one ever reported any. Certainly no one reported it to me.


This is hardly the first time that leaders of respected institutions—Congress, churches, universities—have closed ranks against accusations of sexual abuse. But by escalating his denials, Jordan is exposing himself to ever greater legal and political jeopardy. He has already attacked several of his former student wrestlers, calling them liars and rejecting the possibility that they told him of anything that might be perceived, in retrospect, as abuse. Now, in addition, he’s pitting his credibility against former students who say they reported abuse to other OSU coaches or administrators.

Jordan has specifically defended Russ Hellickson, the former head wrestling coach with whom he worked at OSU. Three weeks ago, Jordan and his supporters released a statement from six former OSU coaches in Jordan’s defense. Hellickson topped the list. “None of us saw or heard of abuse of OSU wrestlers,” said the statement. A blurb from Hellickson added: “At no time while Jim Jordan was a coach with me at Ohio State did either of us ignore abuse of our wrestlers.”

Jordan brushes off his accusers as pawns in a political plot. The “lies” against him are “sequenced and choreographed” by “the left,” he says.

That’s odd, because Hellickson has been recorded on video saying that the team doctor, Richard Strauss, was too “hands on” with student wrestlers, that Strauss made the students “nervous” by showering with them for an hour at a time, and that Hellickson told OSU administrators about the problem. Three weeks ago, Hellickson told USA Today that he had warned Strauss to stop touching students excessively during weigh-ins. Politico reports that according to witnesses, shower voyeurism of the athletes became so invasive that Hellickson had to “physically drag the gawkers out of the building.” According to the article, Hellickson “pleaded with the university multiple times to move their athletes to a private facility.”

Andy Geiger, who was OSU’s athletic director at the time, confirms that Hellickson complained about voyeurism in the showers. Geiger told the Washington Post that to solve the problem, he worked with Hellickson to move the wrestlers out of the building. Geiger says that the students felt “uncomfortable” and that he had sought to make sure they would “be left alone and feel secure and not harassed or observed or approached.”
\

Slate

On second thoughts, Jordan is *perfect* to be Speaker of the House GOPniks ...

   88. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: July 30, 2018 at 05:03 PM (#5718119)
On second thoughts, Jordan is *perfect* to be Speaker of the House GOPniks ...


Nothing represents the modern GOP quite like a guy who lies outright in defense of child molestation.
   89. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 05:17 PM (#5718123)
Nothing represents the modern GOP quite like a guy who lies outright in defense of child molestation.


White Supremacists are offended and angered by your post.
   90. Shredder Posted: July 30, 2018 at 05:20 PM (#5718126)
Refresh my memory -- is "Oh yeah? Well BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY BABA BOOEY!" stage 5 or 6?
When do we get to "They're trying to criminalize politics!!!"? Haven't heard that one in a while.
   91. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5718128)
The final House generic ballot margin average in 2012 was Republicans by 0.2%. The GOP led in the generic ballot throughout 2011 and 2012.

The Dems had a lead in just two of the last ten individual generic ballot polls in 2012, and in 15 of the last 50 individual polls, and in 47 of 188 overall. Republicans held a 5% or greater lead in 56 individual polls; Democrats hit +5% nine times. But the Democrats ended up winning the actual vote by 1.2%. Silver is right.

Why would anyone care about generic ballot polls once you have actual election results? In 2012, Obama won the White House by ~ 5 million votes, receiving 332 electoral votes, but his party only picked up 8 House seats*, leaving the GOP with a 33 seat edge. That's not "doing well" by any standard for a party winning a presidential election.

*Now checking rather than going from memory, in #81 I overstated the 2012 Democratic gain. It was 8, not 12, seats.
   92. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 06:33 PM (#5718150)
Clapper, #91:
Why would anyone care about generic ballot polls once you have actual election results?

Because, you enemy of goalpost stability, YOU attempted to rebut Nate Silver's analysis of the generic ballot (#72) by comparing the supposedly disappointing 2012 election result to what "Democrats had hoped to achieve while winning the White House" (#81).

In 2012 polling, Obama was favored to win the White House by a safe margin (and did). The Democrats were favored to lose House seats (but didn't).
   93. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 06:38 PM (#5718154)
   94. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: July 30, 2018 at 06:43 PM (#5718156)
Clapper, #91 cont.:
In 2012, Obama won the White House by ~ 5 million votes, receiving 332 electoral votes, but his party only picked up 8 House seats


That is a powerful electoral indictment you're positing there.

In 2016, Hillary Clinton won the popular vote by ~3 million votes, but her party only picked up 6 House seats.

In 2004, George W. Bush won the White House by ~3 million votes, but his party only picked up 3 House seats.

In 2000, Al Gore won the popular vote by ~500,000 votes, but his party only picked up 1 House seat.

In 1996, Bill Clinton won the White House by ~8 million votes, but his party only picked up 2 House seats.

In 1992, Bill Clinton won the White House by ~6 million votes, but his party lost 9 House seats.

In 1988, George HW Bush won the White House by ~8 million votes, but his party only picked up 9 House seats.

In 1984, Ronald Reagan won the White House by ~17 million votes, but his party only picked up 16 House seats.

In this stretch, only the 2008 election (9 million vote margin, 34-seat pickup) appears to have met your expectations. But one out of nine elections can't be wrong!
   95. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 06:55 PM (#5718164)
*Now checking rather than going from memory, in #81 I overstated the 2012 Democratic gain. It was 8, not 12, seats.


How many did the Republicans gain in 2016?
   96. zenbitz Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:07 PM (#5718170)
It's also a clue to the identity of one of my 7 Twitter accounts. Collect 'em all, internet sleuths!


Do they all have exactly 6 followers?

I did actually ghost myself on twitter last month. A dissatisfied user made a snarky (but wrong) comment about our site (actually about the file naming convention on our downloads). I (as myself) made a snarky reply but (as my organization) made a thoughtful and rational reply. User recanted; said she was just frustrated that day.
   97. The Yankee Clapper Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:08 PM (#5718171)
In 2012 polling, Obama was favored to win the White House by a safe margin (and did). The Democrats were favored to lose House seats (but didn't).

You're equating running a bit ahead of lousy polling with "doing well". They're not the same. In 2008, Obama was elected and House Democrats won 257 House seats. In 2012, Obama was re-elected and House Democrats won 201 seats. Obama did well in both elections, House Democrats only in 2008. Would you similarly say the GOP will have "done well" in 2018 if they end up with 201 seats? I wouldn't.

The other examples in #92 are equally unpersuasive. Parties "do well" in elections for the House of Representatives when they obtain/retain a majority or pick up a significant number of seats. Democrats did neither in 2012.
   98. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:21 PM (#5718176)
It's also a clue to the identity of one of my 7 Twitter accounts. Collect 'em all, internet sleuths!

Do they all have exactly 6 followers?


HA!

The most popular one has ~150 followers, the least popular ~30. Not exactly a social media influencer but there’s only one person whose interest I’m focused on capturing - ME!

I think the most famous person following any of the accounts is former UFC heavyweight contender Shane Carwin.
   99. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:33 PM (#5718181)
Trump Doubles-Down on Shutdown Threat

President Trump “reiterated his willingness Monday to allow the government to shut down this fall if he does not receive sufficient funding for border security but he declined to take a firm stance on the specific amount of money he would accept,” CNN reports.

Said Trump: “If we don’t get border security after many, many years of talk within the United States, I would have no problem doing a shutdown. It’s time we have proper border security. We’re the laughingstock of the world. We have the worst immigration laws anywhere in the world.”


From a non-political standpoint a shutdown would suck, but from a partisan view ... Democrats can't get that lucky can they?
   100. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: July 30, 2018 at 07:45 PM (#5718184)
We’re the laughingstock of the world.


What do you mean “we” kemosabe?
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