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Monday, June 11, 2018

OTP 2018 June 11: Sports, politics conflicted 50 years ago with mourning of RFK’s death

If you think the intersection – and conflict – of sports and politics is something new, well, you haven’t been paying close enough attention to either for a very long time.

Don’t think so? Check out President Trump’s pardon of the controversial African-American heavyweight champion Jack Johnson, who held the title more than 100 years ago. His reign was consumed by the politics of the day. So it is no surprise that the debate over NFL players and the national anthem remains a divisive topic.

Anything that is going to have the powerful symbolism of sports —and the ability to unite, as we have seen right here in Washington during the Capitals’ Stanley Cup playoffs run — is also going to generate enough passion to divide as well, in death as well as life.

That was the case 50 years ago, as Major League Baseball tried to cope with the proper way to mourn the death of New York Senator and Democratic presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy on June 6, 1968.

 

I almost linked to a story with the tag line “Miguel Cabrera stands next to Detroit’s “Rally Goose” during the first game of a doubleheader vs. the Yankees on Monday. The Tigers lost the opener but won the nightcap” but opted for history instead of the goose.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 11, 2018 at 07:41 AM | 1325 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: boxing, death, hockey, off-topic, politics, why can't we all just get along

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   801. PepTech Posted: June 14, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5692146)
flip
   802. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 12:57 PM (#5692148)
786

“No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.


Guess he was wrong, huh?

Once again, if this was a conspiracy to put Hillary in the White House, it was the most inept one ever.
   803. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 12:59 PM (#5692150)
I'll wager there's plenty of folks out there who are fed up with the whole bickering lot and thinking "screw it, it's not like it matters".


That was a key message of the Russian troll factories in 2016, as you may know.
   804. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:00 PM (#5692151)
Would be interesting to see what would have happened in 2016 if the Dems weren't trying for a third term in a row.


Meh - I've come to accept the CW that they blew it by failing to recognize the softness in the midwest.

   805. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:03 PM (#5692154)
Republicans may express unhappiness with Trump, but when there's a ballot with an R and a D on it, what's *their* alternative? And independents need something more than "not that guy" to motivate them. I'll wager there's plenty of folks out there who are fed up with the whole bickering lot and thinking "screw it, it's not like it matters". Just assuming "notTrump" will win is lazy and begs to be smacked down. The alternative would be to develop some actual positions, communicate them effectively, and rise above the muck.


That's a 2020 problem.

The 2018 starts and stops with base intensity.... and notTrump HAS been working, even down ballot, at state legislature levels.
   806. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5692155)
The alternative would be to develop some actual positions


"We don't believe the United States should be sending children to concentration camps on the southern border" is a position.
   807. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:13 PM (#5692156)
can we all just agree not to make nasty comments about irrelevant issues such as the physical appearance of women - or men?


No.

Rudy Guiliani becoming a cross between a gargoyle and uncle fester cannot be ignored.
   808. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:16 PM (#5692158)
Not Srul, but I agree with him that Not-Trump (alone) is fraught with peril.

Republicans may express unhappiness with Trump, but when there's a ballot with an R and a D on it, what's *their* alternative? And independents need something more than "not that guy" to motivate them. I'll wager there's plenty of folks out there who are fed up with the whole bickering lot and thinking "screw it, it's not like it matters". Just assuming "notTrump" will win is lazy and begs to be smacked down. The alternative would be to develop some actual positions, communicate them effectively, and rise above the muck.

That's a 2020 problem.

The 2018 starts and stops with base intensity.... and notTrump HAS been working, even down ballot, at state legislature levels.


That's selling many of these Democratic candidates short. Hatred of Trump and everything he stands for may be what's energizing the base, but few of the actual nominees are thinking that that's all it's going to take to win. Many of them in fact have barely mentioned Trump's name at all.
   809. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:17 PM (#5692159)

Republicans may express unhappiness with Trump, but when there's a ballot with an R and a D on it, what's *their* alternative? And independents need something more than "not that guy" to motivate them. I'll wager there's plenty of folks out there who are fed up with the whole bickering lot and thinking "screw it, it's not like it matters". Just assuming "notTrump" will win is lazy and begs to be smacked down. The alternative would be to develop some actual positions, communicate them effectively, and rise above the muck.


The Republicans won both houses of congress and the Presidency by basically saying "we're not Obama".
   810. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:20 PM (#5692160)
Rudy Guiliani becoming a cross between a gargoyle and uncle fester cannot be ignored.

Nor can Trump's striking resemblance to his photorealist-like statues.
   811. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:22 PM (#5692162)
The 2018 starts and stops with base intensity.... and notTrump HAS been working, even down ballot, at state legislature levels.


Yes, but ...

Being NotTrump is a huge advantage for Democrats. I am not against the NotTrump message and its effectiveness, however that shouldn't be all for a variety of reasons.

First and most important, even if NotTrump is enough to get Democrats in office there is more than winning elections to governance. I think the Democrats should stand for ideals and have policies which address those ideals. Democrats are and must continue to be (word I hate warning) a brand, and is has to be more than just NotTrump.

Given the nature of the Dumpster Fire Presidency the only time the Democratic message (other than NotTrump) is going to be spread is during the election by the candidates. All the rest of the time the media will happily spend 100% of their time talking about Trump, the latest controversy and so forth.

We need to stand for more, we need to communicate more. And yes many voters are tribal and/or stupid and won't hear what is said. Well 100% of voters won't get a positive Democratic message if one is not put forth.

And again, yes I agree NotTrump is effective, but the media and various PACs have that message thoroughly covered. It is not either or it is yes AND... . The candidates, in their messaging, need to take care of the rest of the messaging. Not just for this election but future cycles.

/off soapbox
   812. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:25 PM (#5692165)
Guess he was wrong, huh?


Only about ultimate impact, not about motivation.
   813. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:27 PM (#5692168)

That's selling many of these Democratic candidates short. Hatred of Trump and everything he stands for may be what's energizing the base, but few of the actual nominees are thinking that that's all it's going to take to win. Many of them in fact have barely mentioned Trump's name at all.


Because they don't need to. Most people who have voted for these blue candidates in the special elections could barely tell you anything about them. Hell, they might not even remember their names now. Jon Ossoff came this close to being elected in GA and yet where is he now?
   814. PepTech Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5692169)
I didn't say NotTrump is a bad thing, I said that counting on NotTrump and NotTrump (alone) is fraught with peril. See Clinton, Hillary.
“No. No he won’t. We’ll stop it,” Strzok responded.
If he was dumb enough to put that in an email, he deserves to go down.

Whether or not Strzok goes down is independent of Trump and/or members of his campaign deserving to go down, which is something SBB is either incapable of understanding, or willfully ignoring. Or both. I vote both.

   815. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:28 PM (#5692170)
That's selling many of these Democratic candidates short. Hatred of Trump and everything he stands for may be what's energizing the base, but few of the actual nominees are thinking that that's all it's going to take to win. Many of them in fact have barely mentioned Trump's name at all.


Good candidates fare better than bad candidates, no doubt.

But - it's a fallacy laid bare by the nationwide distribution of the various gains to think that's all there is to it. These numbers are actually now dated - but they'd look even better when updated:



In the 74 special elections for both state legislatures and Congress across the country since Trump won that they tracked, Democrats performed, on average, 11 points better than they did in those areas in the 2016 presidential election.

While the average movement was in Democrats’ favor, there was a fair amount of variation. In 49 of those races, the Democratic candidate’s margin was better than Hillary Clinton’s in 2016. In 23 races, the Republican candidate did better than Trump. In the other two, it was about a tie.

Democrats aren’t just running up the score in already-blue areas. The party made many of its biggest improvements over the 2016 presidential in districts Trump won in the South and Midwest. This goes to show that the 2016 elections don’t at all seem to have heralded doom for Democrats in regions that tipped to Trump — in fact, it’s many Republican-held seats in those regions that suddenly seem to be flipping to Democrats for the first time in years.


This isn't at all to deny the individual value of tailoring campaigns to the district... nor does it mean to say that every candidate everywhere should be bellowing anti-Trump messages. By all means - in some places, a "Trump blackout" is smart campaigning.

But - especially now in the age of omnipresent, virtually inescapable media - it's time to put the old cliche "all elections are local" to bed. They can certainly be made into that...

However, we live in an age where one cannot escape the 'national currents'.

I just think it's wholly wrong to believe that the broad, nationwide Democratic over-performance is all about the Democrats somehow managing to continually pull inside straights with perfect candidates that run great campaigns. It just wouldn't add up.

I don't think one can deny that an awful lot of these candidates are also benefiting - tremendously - by infrequent voters who see these as opportunities to "stick it to Trump"... even if his name doesn't come up, to say nothing of the fact that he's not on the ballot.

I'm very much in favor of the broadest possible democratic participation - but for purposes of the midterms? The "sick of it all" voters are the last ones I'm going to chase. Better to the chase the "really angry" people of the blue variety.

At the national level, the messaging should very much continue to be anti-Trump. It's certainly not hurting and the data clearly seems to indicate that it helps. Locally, individual campaigns should campaign as they see fit. But - the national message should remain "this is your chance to stick it to Trump"... because the data says that it's a popular message. The approval polling says so. The generic ballot says so. The election results on the aggregate say so.


   816. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:29 PM (#5692171)
And again, yes I agree NotTrump is effective, but the media and various PACs have that message thoroughly covered. It is not either or it is yes AND... . The candidates, in their messaging, need to take care of the rest of the messaging. Not just for this election but future cycles.

For the longest time politicians have been happily getting elected by being vague about what they are actually going to do.
   817. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:34 PM (#5692174)
Anecdotally, at the golf club I belong, the membership is dominated by white males 50 years and up. I walk among them, and the anti-Trump sentiment sits at about 60/40. This is in the most conservative county in MA (Bristol, which, with neighboring Plymouth county, gave Trump the most support in MA in 2016).
   818. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:36 PM (#5692176)
Wan't the mantra "He'll become more presidential after the election"? He hasn't. He's gotten more obnoxious, and I think it has turned a lot of people off. His base hasn't deserted him, but I doubt he's gained any support among the "wait and seers".
   819. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:38 PM (#5692177)
Conservatives like Wilson, Anna Navarro, and Amanda Carpenter give me hope that it may be possible for a sane right of center party in the future.


Dream on.

Trumpism represents the true face of the masses. Columnists and old-style Republican establishment types are only talking to each other. No one else is listening.
   820. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5692179)
Next year's Canadian election will be interesting in the looks vs. results department.


Are all the Ugly American attacks on Justin Dreamy helping him in the public opinion realm? Just curious.
   821. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5692180)
Trumpism represents the true face of the masses.


It didn't have to. Until that reality sinks in, reform is not possible.

There is no sign whatsoever that it is in fact sinking in.
   822. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:41 PM (#5692182)
It's rather amusing to me - that as the midterms approach (yeah, I know Labor Day yada yada... but fact is, we're now less than 5 months out) - the Trumpkins have gone silent on the "Obama-Trump" voter.

I'll reiterate what I said yesterday... good luck getting those sorts to come out in the midterms and vote for the party of the President.

Democrats - hopefully - learned that lesson in 2010 and 2014. If Trumpkins want to learn the same lesson the hard way, believing those millions have suddenly become highly engaged and can be counted on in off Presidential-cycle... Have at it.

Frankly - much as I LOVE to poke the Trumpkins for the ongoing (if not now complete?) transformation of the GOP into the Trumpublican party, I'm quite interested to find out if costs them their usual stalwart Republican midterm turnout.

I think one can draw virtually nothing from the cable heads who are voicing anti-Trump sentiment from the right - and perhaps the Flakes/Sanfords/Corkers/Sasse/etc tell us not much more... But - are there long-time, reliable GOP voters who - far from turned off by the anti-Trump Democratic message, are turned off by the New Trump Way or the Highway! message of the GOP?

My guess is that there are.

We'll find out.
   823. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:46 PM (#5692186)
Zonk...some of the things I hear guys at the golf course call him: "loose cannon", "crazy", and "ass hole". And they're talking amongst themselves. I'm just nearby, warming up for my round. These are guys that are, by and large, of the era of guys who served in the armed forces in Vietnam. A lot of them were in the service. Guys you would think would be all over a Trump second term. They're not.
   824. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:47 PM (#5692189)
Trumpism represents the true face of the masses. Columnists and old-style Republican establishment types are only talking to each other. No one else is listening.


And if election participation was always wholly an exercise of the masses - much less an exercise of the masses that diverges significantly from Presidential years to mid-term years, I'd care.

Mid-term turnout only rarely hits even 40% - compared to an average of 60% in Presidential years.

If the masses want to matter in off cycle years, then the masses should probably start showing up en masse off cycle.

   825. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5692191)
The mass migrations into Europe in 2015 were a massive overreach

Assuming you're referring to refugees fleeing the Middle East, what was the alternative at that moment? Staying there to be murdered?
   826. Lassus Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:48 PM (#5692192)
There is no sign whatsoever that it is in fact sinking in.

A greater number of white supremacist nominations and elections down ballot certainly is a sign.
   827. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:49 PM (#5692193)
Trumpism represents the true face of the masses. Columnists and old-style Republican establishment types are only talking to each other. No one else is listening.


There is no one "true face of the masses". What Trump represents is just another twist on the same stuff we have seen throughout history, but humanity is more than just that, else there would be nothing for GOP President Trump to wreck.
   828. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5692198)
Won by millions.


Lost where it counted.
   829. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5692199)
Assuming you're referring to refugees fleeing the Middle East, what was the alternative at that moment? Staying there to be murdered?


Freedom isn't free hippie. Where would America be if our Founding Fathers ran away from the monarchs like cowards?
   830. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:54 PM (#5692200)
ICE is this administration's Gestapo.

If you wanted an example of the (intentional) mission creep of supposedly rounding up and deporting MS-13 gang members, the story of the Garcia family in Los Angeles shows the insidiousness of blanket immigration raids. The Mercury News has the story of 62-year-old Luis Garcia, who, according to his daughter, was having his morning coffee and watering his lawn around 7 a.m. on Sunday when approximately eight Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents showed up at Garcia’s home, handcuffed him, and detained him. Now, they’re trying to deport him.

Luis Garcia’s 32-year-old daughter Natalie Garcia was in the house, which her father owns, at the time of the arrest. Natalie said her father had come to the U.S. nearly fifty years ago from Mexico, when he was just 13, and had been a longtime legal permanent resident, who had gone to high school in the area where he later bought a home and raised a family. Luis Garcia never became a citizen, she said, but paid taxes as all other Americans. When the ICE agents arrived, Natalie said she didn’t know what to do. “[Natalie] tried to get more information and asked to see the arrest warrant and if they had read him his rights,” the Mercury News reports. “She said the agents responded rudely, did not answer most of her questions, and told her they did not have to show her the warrant. They told her that it was not a criminal warrant, but an administrative one.”
   831. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:55 PM (#5692201)
A greater number of white supremacist nominations and elections down ballot certainly is a sign.


All this blather from SBB amounts to is him sucking his own dick to not have to realize that he's part of the problem.
   832. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:56 PM (#5692203)
Assuming you're referring to refugees fleeing the Middle East


Of course he is. If there's anything as reliably written in stone for SBB as that "1979/Decline" thing, it's his hatred of Muslims.
   833. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5692204)
Shouldn't the "masses" at least constitute half the population?

I mean, I get the the fetishization of the old white man continues unabated, but the numbers are the numbers. And the numbers put Trump at 46% in 2016 (vs 48% for his opponent) and put his approval high water mark at -10 points - with a consistent and unbreakable 45% strongly disapproving.

Boundaries are boundaries so ECs, legislatures, etc will be what they are.

Sucks to be the party that generally needs to get to 51% to hit the elected majority rather than the one that can make it work with 49%, but geographic distribution is what it is.

The current numbers we'll say have enough with room to spare. Five months from now isn't written in stone, but I'm not sweating it.

   834. PepTech Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5692206)
That's a 2020 problem.

The 2018 starts and stops with base intensity.... and notTrump HAS been working, even down ballot, at state legislature levels.
Yeah, well, in my opinion the worst possible thing that could happen is the Dems taking control of both legislative bodies and immediately starting impeachment proceedings. That would kick off a shitshow that the democratic process might not recover from for quite some time.

Obviously, no one has any idea where Mueller is going to end up. If sufficient evidence to actually impeach a President comes to light before November, I actually have confidence the GOP will look into it. Precedent, and all that. If it doesn't come until after November, it's going to be sticky. Trump's cult (hey, I'm quoting Corker here) does not think rationally. There could be video evidence of Trump, Putin, and Assange cackling over how Trump Tower Sevastopol gets built, and the deplorables will still buy whatever nonsense Big Orange wants them to. Say what you want about Trump, he's a master marketer of himself and has read the mood of a sufficient percentage of Americans to guarantee his public primacy for the rest of his days.

Despite (because of?) being a racist, misogynist, lying Clown.
   835. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:58 PM (#5692207)
Zonk,

I'm going out for most of the rest of the afternoon, but I did want to say I don't disagree with what you wrote in #815. It's about tailoring the message to the district in terms of reaching swing voters, but for goosing the turnout it's largely about sending a message about Trump and Trumpism.

I'll only add that by "Trumpism", I'm referring to specific policies of his that are wreaking demonstrable damage to people, Obamacare sabotage and the actions of his ICE goon squads being prominent among them. Maybe add a few notes about Trump's personal corruption, but when it comes to Russia I'd rather let those stream of indictments do the talking.
   836. Traderdave Posted: June 14, 2018 at 01:59 PM (#5692208)
All this blather from SBB amounts to is him sucking his own dick to not have to realize that he's part of the problem.


If he could do that, he wouldn't be bothering us here. Maybe we should pass the hat to get him some yoga lessons...
   837. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5692213)
Zonk...some of the things I hear guys at the golf course call him: "loose cannon", "crazy", and "ass hole". And they're talking amongst themselves. I'm just nearby, warming up for my round. These are guys that are, by and large, of the era of guys who served in the armed forces in Vietnam. A lot of them were in the service. Guys you would think would be all over a Trump second term. They're not.


Yeah, yeah. Venting on the golf course is one thing. There was a lot of anti-Trump and Never-Trump venting in 2016, too.

Then they got into the voting booths . . .
   838. PepTech Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5692217)
If there's anything as reliably written in stone for SBB as that "1979/Decline" thing, it's his hatred of Muslims brown people generally.
Don't forget his statement that aborigines are incapable of producing higher order literature. Although, to be fair, that's not "hatred" so much as condescension.
   839. Srul Itza Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:06 PM (#5692219)
If the masses want to matter in off cycle years, then the masses should probably start showing up en masse off cycle.


Trump got the votes of the deplorables who didn't tend to vote even in Presidential elections. Will they turn out again for Dear Leader in the off-election?

Possibly not. But given the way they have been going to the polls in primaries to purge any Republican who is not sufficiently sycophantic to the Great Orange Putz -- don't count your chickens before they hatch, son.
   840. Greg K Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5692223)
Are all the Ugly American attacks on Justin Dreamy helping him in the public opinion realm? Just curious.

Anecdotally, all public figures (even the leader of the Conservative Party) have been rallying around Trudeau.

But the polls seem to suggest a continued decline with the Conservatives and NDP both picking up ground on him (to the point that Conservatives are as likely to lead in a poll as Liberals).

But polling is very sporadic this far out. Like, one a week. That last one I see if from June 8th (before that June 1st). So it's possible he's getting a Trump bump we just haven't seen yet.
   841. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:10 PM (#5692224)
Assuming you're referring to refugees fleeing the Middle East, what was the alternative at that moment? Staying there to be murdered?


Oh, please.

This kind of thing is merely yet another example of people's unwillingness to confront analytical reality.

   842. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5692226)
Yeah, well, in my opinion the worst possible thing that could happen is the Dems taking control of both legislative bodies and immediately starting impeachment proceedings. That would kick off a shitshow that the democratic process might not recover from for quite some time.

Obviously, no one has any idea where Mueller is going to end up. If sufficient evidence to actually impeach a President comes to light before November, I actually have confidence the GOP will look into it. Precedent, and all that. If it doesn't come until after November, it's going to be sticky. Trump's cult (hey, I'm quoting Corker here) does not think rationally. There could be video evidence of Trump, Putin, and Assange cackling over how Trump Tower Sevastopol gets built, and the deplorables will still buy whatever nonsense Big Orange wants them to. Say what you want about Trump, he's a master marketer of himself and has read the mood of a sufficient percentage of Americans to guarantee his public primacy for the rest of his days.


Well - they only need one (fortunately, the one they're likely to flip) to kick it off...

I completely and totally disagree with your faith in the GOP. Just go back a page or two and read the Elegy I posted from Politico. Hell, read the latest RNC chair tweet. Listen to Fox News. The idea that the GOP is going to suddenly start standing up to Trump is ludicrous.

The ones who have are completely exiled. You think that suddenly Mitch or Paul or the other lapdogs are going to find their stones and a higher calling than the cult of personality they find themselves in?

Should the Mueller report hit by the fall - and should it actually yield impeachable items that clears everyone's bar, I'll tell you EXACTLY how the fall campaign will go: The Republicans will insist that it should be up to the voters. They won't act.

In any case, by January 2019 - I think we'll have our Mueller answer one way or another.

But if we don't (or if we don't get the likely answer)? Well.... at least one chamber is going to have committee chairs that won't be part of the Trump Legal Defense Team. It will be practicing actual oversight.

Anybody - or specifically those who think impeachment must only be undertaken with a specific criminal code violation - is welcome to believe there will be nothing to be found.

Even beyond that, though - the single biggest thing keeping Trump "just" 10+ points underwater rather than 20+ points underwater is an economy that continues to expand, as it has for nearly 9 years. Thinking that will continue - especially as Trump seems hellbent on doing whatever he can to end it - is folly.


   843. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:14 PM (#5692228)
Trump got the votes of the deplorables who didn't tend to vote even in Presidential elections. Will they turn out again for Dear Leader in the off-election?

Perhaps I missed it but who did Trump get out to vote that don't normally vote? He got 2 more million votes than Romney did but 8 million more votes were cast. So he picked up 1 out of every 4 new votes that didn't vote in 2012 but of course that means 3 out of every 4 new voters were not willing to vote for Trump. Now then there is possibly 4 million or so votes out there that voted conservatively but did not do so for Trump in 2016. The question isn't whether the new voters of 2016 will turn out for Trump but what will the people who didn't vote for Trump going to do in 2020.
   844. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:16 PM (#5692229)
Even beyond that, though - the single biggest thing keeping Trump "just" 10+ points underwater rather than 20+ points underwater is an economy that continues to expand, as it has for nearly 9 years. Thinking that will continue - especially as Trump seems hellbent on doing whatever he can to end it - is folly.

Unless Trump does truly do something monumentally stupid any mistakes he makes won't really show up in the economy until either 2020 election or after.
   845. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:18 PM (#5692230)
Oh, please.

This kind of thing is merely yet another example of people's unwillingness to confront analytical reality.

Non-responsive or concession accepted? Let me get back to you.
   846. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:19 PM (#5692232)
rump got the votes of the deplorables who didn't tend to vote even in Presidential elections. Will they turn out again for Dear Leader in the off-election?

Possibly not. But given the way they have been going to the polls in primaries to purge any Republican who is not sufficiently sycophantic to the Great Orange Putz -- don't count your chickens before they hatch, son.


Compare primary turnout to GE turnout. Obviously, comparisons depend heavily on whether primaries are competitive or not - but Democratic primary turnout is enormously larger than 2014. GOP turnout is mostly flat. Again - you can pick choose primaries that don't follow this trend - but on the whole? It's not that MORE Republicans are suddenly turning out in GOP primaries to elect Trumpkins.... it's mostly that a large enough proportion who have always turned out in GOP primaries have found their pied piper and candidates are behaving in accordance.

And I will mention for a 3rd time that yes, the "Obama-Trump" voter most certainly does exist. They may only be a few million - but when it took no more than ~100K to swing the EC - they counted in 2016, too. And they stayed home in 2010... and 2014... and will again in 2018.

   847. Lassus Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5692235)
people's unwillingness to confront analytical reality.

Such as citing thousands of preschoolers herded into cages, screaming for their parents, I assume.
   848. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5692236)
Perhaps I missed it but who did Trump get out to vote that don't normally vote? He got 2 more million votes than Romney did but 8 million more votes were cast. So he picked up 1 out of every 4 new votes that didn't vote in 2012 but of course that means 3 out of every 4 new voters were not willing to vote for Trump. Now then there is possibly 4 million or so votes out there that voted conservatively but did not do so for Trump in 2016. The question isn't whether the new voters of 2016 will turn out for Trump but what will the people who didn't vote for Trump going to do in 2020.


I'll say it for a 4th (?) time.

The Obama-Trump voters do exist. He didn't necessarily get 1 out of 4 new voters... He got some voters that went twice for Obama, too.

   849. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5692237)
So periodically people here ask if we have made progress as a society why are we unhappy? Why are depression rates so high? Why are suicide rates high and growing?

Well here is one possible answer to that question ... Depression and suicide risk are side effects of more than 200 common drugs

More than a third of American adults use medications that list depression as a risk, and a quarter use drugs that increase the risk of suicide.


I have never really considered this as a contributor, but it is an interesting take and if it is part of the problem it is one that can over time be addressed and mitigated.
   850. Traderdave Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5692241)
Unless Trump does truly do something monumentally stupid any mistakes he makes won't really show up in the economy until either 2020 election or after.


Flattest yield curve since '07 means a strong likelihood of recession in a year or so. If that curve inverts, a recession is guaranteed. Said recession will be mostly not his fault but if he keeps up his trade war silliness he risks pouring gas on that fire, though obviously he's too stupid to realize that.

The very rich irony here is that the part of it which will be his fault will be his hawkish choice for Fed Chair. Keeping Yellen on would have kept the expansion rolling longer. He's too stupid to realize that too.
   851. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5692243)
Even beyond that, though - the single biggest thing keeping Trump "just" 10+ points underwater rather than 20+ points underwater is an economy that continues to expand, as it has for nearly 9 years. Thinking that will continue - especially as Trump seems hellbent on doing whatever he can to end it - is folly.


Unless Trump does truly do something monumentally stupid any mistakes he makes won't really show up in the economy until either 2020 election or after.


The current economy is not magical. We have been in the longest expansionary economy on record. At some point - whether due to GOP/Trump actions or not - the economy is likely to falter. It won't happen in time to matter for 2018, but if I were a betting man I think it will happen before the 2020 election. And if you think Trump is disliked now, wait until the economy turns south.

EDIT: Excuse me, according to this List of economic expansions in the United States it is only the second longest. My apologies.
   852. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5692244)
As if on cue - I swear I posted the above before reading this...


South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, whose primary campaign highlighted his alliance with Trump, was forced into a runoff with a business executive who ran as an outsider. Turnout in that race was down by about 25 percent from 2010, the last time the state’s Republicans had a contested gubernatorial primary.

Similar signs of disinterest bedeviled Republicans in other primary states. In Maine, while just 90 percent of precincts had been counted, Republicans were likely to fall roughly 30,000 votes short of their 2010 turnout. In Nevada, roughly 30,000 fewer Republicans voted than in 2010; Adam Laxalt, who tied himself more closely to Trump than to the state’s outgoing Republican governor, had gotten a last-minute Trump endorsement in the gubernatorial race.

In Virginia, Republican turnout was lower than it had been for 2017’s gubernatorial primary; Stewart, who had lost that race with 155,780 votes, won Tuesday’s Senate primary with 136,410 votes.


Let's be very clear about this.

Trump is NOT expanding the Republican Pie. He is shrinking it. Trumpublicans are simply gobbling up a larger proportion of a smaller pie.

   853. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5692245)
The Obama-Trump voters do exist. He didn't necessarily get 1 out of 4 new voters... He got some voters that went twice for Obama, too.

I didn't say they don't. I asked who did Trump get that normally don't vote.
   854. Yonder Alonso in misguided trousers (cardinal) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:32 PM (#5692247)
Non-responsive or concession accepted? Let me get back to you.

Can I vote for both, or would that constitute fraud?
   855. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5692248)
The current economy is not magical. We have been in the longest expansionary economy on record. At some point - whether due to GOP/Trump actions or not - the economy is likely to falter. It won't happen in time to matter for 2018, but if I were a betting man I think it will happen before the 2020 election. And if you think Trump is disliked now, wait until the economy turns south.

I'm not claiming it is magical but the effects of a recession on the masses take time to be felt.
   856. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5692252)
The current economy is not magical. We have been in the longest expansionary economy on record. At some point - whether due to GOP/Trump actions or not - the economy is likely to falter. It won't happen in time to matter for 2018, but if I were a betting man I think it will happen before the 2020 election. And if you think Trump is disliked now, wait until the economy turns south.


Well - as folks certainly more knowledgeable about macro economics, I'll let you and TraderDave tackle the book definitions...

As for me, while the 'media' and 'feelings' no doubt play a role - I think the macro indicators tend to trail the impact felt by those who don't see economic fortunes measured in GDP, yield curves, and the like.

Per the link last page - wages continue to be rather stagnate... and for those outside of white collar/supervisory positions, they're still shrinking. Those tax cut PR bonuses are long since spent and gone...

Gas prices are rising - and one doesn't need to look too far to see that the once-endangered species of social gas price postings are now roaring back.

Health insurance and medical costs are spiking again, thanks to the ACA sabotage.

Things haven't improved for the folks Trump allegedly was going to help - and in fact, they're getting worse.

Might very well be true that the national media story of an economy in recession likely won't hit this year... but I very much suspect that a lot of middle class folks would say it's already happening.
   857. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:39 PM (#5692254)
I'm not claiming it is magical but the effects of a recession on the masses take time to be felt.


Sure. Like I said it is too late for one to massively influence the 2018 election (for example). However, there is also a delay in detecting and formally declaring a recession, and the effects of one are felt by the voters even before one is formally announced. Typically they announce something on the order of ... the recession started back in Qx.

In any event if the economy goes South in 2019 or early 2020 (which would put it in the longest economic expansion of all time, depending on when exactly the start of the recession was declared) there would be plenty of time for that to influence the 2020 election.

I was skeptical the economic expansion would last this long, so I could be wrong (there is a reason I am not a professional economist - and even they have a terrible track record on these things). But I doubt we go until mid 2020 having had no economic bounces. But heck, we shall see.

Edit: I agree with most of #856. The economy might influence 2018, but I doubt it has a massive impact, other than "I was promised more". The economy is not much better or worse than it was two years ago. That could change a great deal over the next two years (but likely not for the better).
   858. BDC Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5692255)
I can't see Trump losing support in Texas, even from my far-right neighbors who now say they regret voting for him. They would vote for a Democrat basically never. I think they're sincere, but I also think they'd hold their breath and pull "R" even if it's a Roseanne Barr/Roy Moore ticket.

But I have to remember that there are other states that were blue till fairly recently and could easily go that way again, even with Trump as incumbent. I'm in my own kind of bubble out here.
   859. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5692256)
Can I vote for both, or would constitute fraud?


You still don't understand the tone. It's analytical, not judgmental. I can assume arguendo that every single refugee would have gotten murdered had they been sent back. Still doesn't change my analysis. Same for the Wall Street bailouts. Both badly discredited what we can call the "non-Trumpian" project. All you're saying is that they were justified. That doesn't substantively address my comments.

In point of fact, the "liberal" project was tottering a bit by 2015. The mass migrations put it on life support. Simple facts. Same thing in the US with open borders.
   860. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:44 PM (#5692257)
812

Guess he was wrong, huh?


Only about ultimate impact, not about motivation.


Jaw movements duly noted.
   861. zenbitz Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5692260)
it's his hatred of Muslims brown people generally.


The only think "SBB" hates is being ignored. Not literally, as in the "ignore" function.
   862. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:53 PM (#5692263)
834

Yeah, well, in my opinion the worst possible thing that could happen is the Dems taking control of both legislative bodies and immediately starting impeachment proceedings. That would kick off a shitshow that the democratic process might not recover from for quite some time.


I'm with you, Pep.
   863. BrianBrianson Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5692266)
But the polls seem to suggest a continued decline with the Conservatives and NDP both picking up ground on him (to the point that Conservatives are as likely to lead in a poll as Liberals).


Now that Ontario has a PC government provincially, it'll swing back towards the Grits federally. Ontario loathes, loathes, loathes having the same party in power provincially and federally. I don't think there's an analogous state in the States.
   864. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5692268)
The current numbers we'll say have enough with room to spare. Five months from now isn't written in stone, but I'm not sweating it.

Careful observers will remember that Zonk was equally confident in the run-up to the 2016 election, as were many others here. The midterm election is ahead, not already decided.
   865. BrianBrianson Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5692269)
I can't see Trump losing support in Texas, even from my far-right neighbors who now say they regret voting for him. They would vote for a Democrat basically never. I think they're sincere, but I also think they'd hold their breath and pull "R" even if it's a Roseanne Barr/Roy Moore ticket.


Changing minds is one thing, and it's fearsome tough. But changing whether they bring themselves to show up at all is less of an ask.
   866. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5692270)
Careful observers will remember that Zonk was equally confident in the run-up to the 2016 election, as were many others here. The midterm election is ahead, not already decided.


Careful observers will remember the Tao of Clapper...

Koo Koo Ka CHA!
   867. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:01 PM (#5692271)
Yeah, well, in my opinion the worst possible thing that could happen is the Dems taking control of both legislative bodies and immediately starting impeachment proceedings. That would kick off a shitshow that the democratic process might not recover from for quite some time.


I am generally against impeaching a President absent something clearly and obviously impeachable, so I am currently against impeachment but that could change depending on what the Mueller investigation shows. An this is an instance where I don't care what the electoral implications are, I think the actions should be motivated by the facts and not the politics. I suspect I am in the minority on this one though (maybe not here, but generally).
   868. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:04 PM (#5692273)
I am generally against impeaching a President absent something clearly and obviously impeachable


Impeachment is too good for this regime.
   869. Traderdave Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5692277)
I am generally against impeaching a President absent something clearly and obviously impeachable


At the very least, serial violations of the Emoluments Clause is an impeachable offense. Some say collusion is not a crime, some say it is but not impeachable if before he took office. He's almost surely guilty of repeated and voluminous violations of AML laws and related crimes, but again, some say exempt becuase before inaugural.

But he's been violating the Emoluments Clause since 1/20/17.
   870. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5692278)
I fail to see how a Democratic House, elected in large part to start impeachment and as anti-Trump candidates, starting impeachement, would be a \"#### show" and set back the democratic process. It would an example of the democratic process in action and the rule of the majority overturning the rule of the minority in the Electoral College results from 2016.
   871. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5692280)
They impeached Clinton for lying about having sex with an intern.

Theyre now accusing Trump of using his charitable foundation to pay his legal bills.

Juanabout that?
   872. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5692281)
At the very least, serial violations of the Emoluments Clause is an impeachable offense. Some say collusion is not a crime, some say it is but not impeachable if before he took office. He's almost surely guilty of repeated and voluminous violations of AML laws and related crimes, but again, some say exempt becuase before inaugural.


I am not yet impressed with that as arguments for impeachment. Sorry. Maybe Mueller will provide me something I think worth impeachment.
   873. Joe Bivens will never admit, will make some excuse Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:17 PM (#5692282)
I'd prefer that Mueller drops some bombs that make it impossible for a Congress led by either party to ignore.
   874. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5692285)
Call me old-fashioned, but I simply believe that the founders got it right when they enshrined impeachment as a political process, using a common law phrasing with extremely loose and hazy meaning, made it legally unreviewable, and as Franklin said - "preferable to assassination" or Hamilton said, "a national inquest" and that it should be plainly obvious the country shouldn't be made to suffer a moron.

The bar should be high - they all said as much, and not a matter of mere political disagreement... but if Trump doesn't clear the bar, then the bar has no real meaning or existence.

And those insisting on a statutory crime really ought to get busy proposing their constitutional amendment to make impeachment a matter for the courts instead.
   875. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5692287)
The bar should be high - they all said as much, and not a matter of mere political disagreement... but if Trump doesn't clear the bar, then the bar has no real meaning or existence.


bingo.

I am not yet impressed with that as arguments for impeachment. Sorry. Maybe Mueller will provide me something I think worth impeachment.


It's a political process, not 2+2 = impeach. If a blue wave hits it's going to be on the back of anti-Trumpism. Thus, impeachment would be totally natural.
   876. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5692288)
If Congress wants to impeach Trump they need to lay the PR groundwork down and get at least 60% of the nation behind it. If you can't get the people to agree with you that the President needs to go then you need to rethink it.
   877. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5692290)
The bar should be high - they all said as much, and not a matter of mere political disagreement... but if Trump doesn't clear the bar, then the bar has no real meaning or existence.


Precisely. Trump has done 100 things worthy of impeachment already, and simply continues on because the GOP is a ######## with mouths agape.
   878. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:26 PM (#5692294)
Trump has done 100 things worthy of impeachment already,


Name them.
   879. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:27 PM (#5692295)
At the very least, serial violations of the Emoluments Clause is an impeachable offense. . . . But he's been violating the Emoluments Clause since 1/20/17.

That's flat-out incorrect. There is no prohibition on a President being in business, and ordinary arms-length commercial transactions do not violate the Emoluments Clause. The Emoluments Clause isn't some special prohibition on the President, it applies to the entire Government, and numerous government employees have owned hotels, inns, resorts, and all manner of commercial real estate. Nelson Rockefeller was Vice President without anyone seriously suggesting that he violated the Emoluments Clause. Those claiming an Emoluments Clause violation are just making stuff up.
   880. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5692296)
If Congress wants to impeach Trump they need to lay the PR groundwork down and get at least 60% of the nation behind it. If you can't get the people to agree with you that the President needs to go then you need to rethink it.


Of course they should.

With Trump's legal defense team nothing more than a gaggle of ridiculous charlatans spouting all manner of nonsense, it ought to be plainly evident that the Trumpkins are doing nothing more than PR legwork for purposes of impeachment defense.

Electoral considerations aside, this is precisely why I wholly disagree with the idea that it shouldn't be the most national Democratic theme. Let individual candidates say what they will as they need to... but it's stupid to let Trumpkins alone lay their PR foundation against without answering it with the same PR argument for.

Enough of this Marquess of Queensberry rules for thee while the Trumpkins are loading up on the brass knuckles.

   881. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5692297)
The bar should be high - they all said as much, and not a matter of mere political disagreement... but if Trump doesn't clear the bar, then the bar has no real meaning or existence.


You hippies didn't think a jungle-born Muslim savage with a fake birth certificate rose to that level.
   882. I Am Merely a Fake Lawyer Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:28 PM (#5692298)
By its terms Congress can waive the Emoluments Clause, so it's probably right to read the failure to take any action as de facto ratification.

In any event, Trump probably is violating it, but there's no proof or even effort to get any proof.
   883. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5692302)
Call me old-fashioned, but I simply believe that the founders got it right when they enshrined impeachment as a political process, using a common law phrasing with extremely loose and hazy meaning, made it legally unreviewable, and as Franklin said - "preferable to assassination" or Hamilton said, "a national inquest" and that it should be plainly obvious the country shouldn't be made to suffer a moron.

The bar should be high - they all said as much, and not a matter of mere political disagreement... but if Trump doesn't clear the bar, then the bar has no real meaning or existence.

And those insisting on a statutory crime really ought to get busy proposing their constitutional amendment to make impeachment a matter for the courts instead.


I agree with all of this, except the conclusion. I am not insisting on a statutory crime and I agree it can be done for political reasons. However, my personal bar has not yet been reached (I can describe that again if desired) and more to the point the fact that the GOP is still going along with Trump shows pretty conclusively that the political bar has no been reached either.

It requires - as per the founders mentioned prior - way more political support for conviction than exists. There is zero point in impeaching in the House knowing with certainty it will fail in the Senate. Until and unless it reaches the point where there is a realistic chance of success in the Senate there is no point in moving on it in the House. I am not interested in political grandstanding and impassioned partisan speeches that could have been written a year ago. That will not help the US.

Bring me something that can get conviction, even if it somehow doesn't pass my personal threshold, and then talk to me about how impeachment is political and let's go. Until then I am relying on my personal sense of what is worth impeachment, and I have not yet seen it.

EDIT: Minor edits for English
   884. McCoy Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:32 PM (#5692303)
Nelson Rockefeller was Vice President without anyone seriously suggesting that he violated the Emoluments Clause.

VP are kind of useless.
   885. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:33 PM (#5692305)
Electoral considerations aside, this is precisely why I wholly disagree with the idea that it shouldn't be the most national Democratic theme. Let individual candidates say what they will as they need to... but it's stupid to let Trumpkins alone lay their PR foundation against without answering it with the same PR argument for.


I think this mischaracterizes what people are proposing, and certainly what I am proposing.
   886. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5692307)
In actual economic news, Jobless Claims Hit 44-Year Low:
New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits unexpectedly fell last week and the number of Americans on jobless rolls declined to a near 44½-year low, pointing to a rapidly tightening labor market.

"Unexpectedly"? Hmm.
   887. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:35 PM (#5692308)
It requires - as per the founders mentioned prior - way more political support for conviction than exists. There is zero point in impeaching in the House nothing with certainty it will fail in the Senate. Until and unless it reaches the point where there is a realistic chance of success in the Senate there is no point in moving on it in the House. I am not interested in political grandstanding and impassioned partisan speeches that could have been written a year ago That will not help the US.


Oh - I'll agree with this.

I don't care when House votes - but I absolutely agree that it shouldn't move until they've got at least 60 Senate votes in their pocket for conviction. Yeah - 67 would be preferrable - but I think if you can get to 60, a good case (and corresponding approval ratings) will be enough to win over the half dozen or so more.

I'm entirely on board with the idea that the apple gets just one bite - so the House should move only with moderate confidence the Senate will convict and not before.
   888. stig-tossled,hornswoggled gef the talking mongoose Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:39 PM (#5692311)
That would kick off a shitshow that the democratic process might not recover from for quite some time.


Having as president a brainless, dictator-loving blowhard is in & of itself a shitshow that the democratic process might not* recover from for quite some time.

*I would say will not & perhaps for that matter cannot.
   889. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5692312)
In actual economic news, Jobless Claims Hit 44-Year Low:


A 44-year low - that I will repeat again - has the Fed chair "puzzled" in that it is not producing wage growth.

This newfound inflation is actually something of a challenge for many workers. After factoring in inflation, average hourly earnings have been flat for the past year, the Labor Department said this week. For workers who aren’t supervisors, wages have actually fallen slightly despite the rush of hiring in an economic expansion on the verge of completing its ninth year.

What economists call the “Phillips curve” — which says low unemployment should accelerate pay growth — appears to be broken or twisted. Or at least operating on a severe delay.
   890. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:40 PM (#5692313)
but I absolutely agree that it shouldn't move until they've got at least 60 Senate votes in their pocket for conviction. Yeah - 67 would be preferrable - but I think if you can get to 60, a good case (and corresponding approval ratings) will be enough to win over the half dozen or so more.


I don't think that's very likely. I can't see a significant minority of the president's party voting for conviction. I think you get none or maybe a couple, or a large majority with a few holdouts, with nothing in-between.
   891. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:42 PM (#5692314)
A 44-year low - that I will repeat again - has the Fed chair "puzzled" in that it is not producing wage growth.


Well it is good news that jobless claims are really low. I don't know that it is good enough news to change anything in the mid terms, and with interest rates going up and numerous other early warning signs (like looming trade wars, higher gas prices, expected higher insurance prices, and so on) I am not nearly as optimistic regarding the economic future in 2019 as Clapper and Trump seem to be.
   892. Traderdave Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5692315)
Nelson Rockefeller was Vice President without anyone seriously suggesting that he violated the Emoluments Clause.


Rockefeller's confirmation was held up for a while as his finances were looked into, much of it was publicly disclosed. There was zero such investigation or disclosure of Trump's.

Diplomats and other foreigners pay up to stay at Trump properties with the intent of currying favor with the president. That is prima facie evidence of pursuing personal gain from the office.

From the Rockefeller Wiki:

Rockefeller underwent extended hearings before Congress, suffering embarrassment when it was revealed he made massive gifts to senior aides, such as Henry Kissinger, and used his personal fortune to finance a scurrilous biography of political opponent Arthur Goldberg.[75] He had also taken debatable deductions on his federal income taxes, and ultimately agreed to pay nearly one million dollars to settle the issue, but no illegalities were uncovered, and he was confirmed
   893. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5692316)
Name them


Die in a fire.
   894. PepTech Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5692317)
I fail to see how a Democratic House, elected in large part to start impeachment and as anti-Trump candidates, starting impeachement, would be a "#### show" and set back the democratic process. It would an example of the democratic process in action and the rule of the majority overturning the rule of the minority in the Electoral College results from 2016.
You're thinking that rationality prevails, and that we live in the pre-Trump age. Your second sentence is absolutely correct *in theory*. In today's age, with Trump at the reins of Fox News and the Cult of Deplorables mindlessly believing everything he says.... shitshow.

By and large the comments above regarding impeachment (ref. 867, 872-876, and 883) are pretty much where I sit. A House passing Articles of Impeachment along party lines would only divide this country further. Obviously conviction wouldn't happen without a bunch of GOP flips; I'd only be in support of bringing Articles up in the first place if a similar percentage of House GOP leadership and members were publicly on board ahead of time. The most likely scenario for this to occur^^ would be Mueller dropping some bombs; we'll have to wait and see.

^^ Note: I'm not saying impeachment itself is likely. I'm saying *if* it happens, that's how it would need to go down. Absent Fifth Avenue gunfire...
   895. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:48 PM (#5692318)
872

At the very least, serial violations of the Emoluments Clause is an impeachable offense. Some say collusion is not a crime, some say it is but not impeachable if before he took office. He's almost surely guilty of repeated and voluminous violations of AML laws and related crimes, but again, some say exempt becuase before inaugural.


I am not yet impressed with that as arguments for impeachment. Sorry. Maybe Mueller will provide me something I think worth impeachment.


"If you come at the King, you'd better not miss."
   896. DavidFoss Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:52 PM (#5692319)
Nelson Rockefeller was Vice President without anyone seriously suggesting that he violated the Emoluments Clause.

It was actually debated at the time. Nelson had been Governor of New York for 14 years before being appointed VP. They broke up his grandfather's company when Nelson was three. The Rockefellers were and still are filthy rich, but they were already 'old money' by the 1970s. I don't see how the analogy holds. The Bush's and Romney's had a lot of inherited wealth too. It's different from opening a hotel down the street from the Capitol.
   897. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:55 PM (#5692321)
What economists call the “Phillips curve” — which says low unemployment should accelerate pay growth — appears to be broken or twisted.


Why, it's almost as if trickle-down economics is complete and total bullshit.
   898. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: June 14, 2018 at 03:57 PM (#5692322)
Your second sentence is absolutely correct *in theory*. In today's age, with Trump at the reins of Fox News and the Cult of Deplorables mindlessly believing everything he says.... shitshow


It's already a #### show. The United States is running concentration camps on the southern border. ICE is running Gestapo campaigns.
   899. The Yankee Clapper Posted: June 14, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5692324)
. The Rockefellers were and still are filthy rich, but they were already 'old money' by the 1970s. I don't see how the analogy holds. The Bush's and Romney's had a lot of inherited wealth too. It's different from opening a hotel down the street from the Capitol.

Rockefeller reportedly owned a lot of commercial real estate, including hotels. A nice resort in the Virgin Islands, too. More recently, Obama's Commerce Secretary was an heir to the Hyatt Hotels chain. There is simply no precedent that a government employee being in the hotel business violates the Emoluments Clause if a foreign government rents a room. This is just making stuff up in a desperate attempt to Get Trump.
   900. Zonk cooks his superfish with raisins Posted: June 14, 2018 at 04:00 PM (#5692325)
I don't think that's very likely. I can't see a significant minority of the president's party voting for conviction. I think you get none or maybe a couple, or a large majority with a few holdouts, with nothing in-between.


What's a significant minority? Just assuming the Senate stays largely as it is now - 49-51, 50-50, whatever - we're probably talking 1/3 or so.

Frankly (sadly? ironically?) - I'm not entirely sure losing Corker and Flake helps.

But anyway.... I think Sasse and Graham are gettable. Mitt Romney probably is, too (especially since I think he's fancying himself the Trump alternative for the GOP going forward). May John McCain stay healthy enough to vote - but he's also certainly in the cards. Susan Collins.

That's 5.

Then, let's look at the old guys who might not be worrying about another election. Richard Shelby is 84 - and is a former Democrat who showed in the Roy Moore/Doug Jones race he's not totally a lost cause. Chuck Grassley is also 84 - and like Shelby, won't be up until 2022 - and has had his moments with Trump. Lamar Alexander is 77 - and may not run in 2020. Pat Roberts is 82.

4 More.

There's at least a few guys who are wholly at the whim of Trump's approval rating. Marco Rubio is purely a mathematical question - if Trump's approval is in the 30s, he'll vote yes. In the 40s - no.

+1

Purple staters up in 2020 - Gardner, Ernst, Portman, and Thillis

4 more.

Purple states up in 2022 - Toomey and Burr.

2 more

Wildcards who have had their run-ins with Trump - Rand Paul and Lisa Murkowski.

2 more

A couple others that have also had their run-ins and occasionally voiced some Trump dissatisfaction - Tim Scott and John Kennedy.

+2

I think that's probably the universe of gettables - 20 or so.

I could see being able to cobble together ~17 or so them.
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