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Monday, May 21, 2018

OTP 2018 May 21: President takes British royalty to a baseball game, May 15, 1991

The 65-year-old queen, dressed in a below-the-knee blue and red dress, black gloves and three strands of pearls, entered the Orioles dugout along the third base line. She formed a receiving line with her husband and the president, clad in a navy blazer, and Barbara Bush. The first lady wore a blue and white floral print dress.

While the VIP guests took their positions designated by their names on 3-by-5 cards, the song “Brown-Eyed Girl” played over the stadium’s public-address system. Their images appeared on the video screen in right-center field.

“I’ve been playing baseball for 10 years, and I’m used to a normal atmosphere,” said Cal Ripken Jr., the Orioles shortstop, after exchanging handshakes. “This is a lot different. There’s a lot of excitement.”

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:42 AM | 1375 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: baltimore orioles, oakland athletics, off topic, politics, polyamorous wood

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   101. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:02 PM (#5676564)
How does Comey's October Surprise about reopening the inquiry against HRC fit into this so-called logical narrative?
As I explained to Andy this morning, that info was supposed to have been transmitted to Congress a month earlier. McCabe was trying to run out the clock.
   102. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5676565)
In case anyone missed it, the GOP now leads the Reuters Generic Congressional Ballot Poll, 38.1% - 36.7%, a 1.4% margin.. The Dems had been ahead all year, with an 11% lead as recently as April.
   103. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5676566)
Why not contact Papadopoulos and interview him? And why wasn't he subject of a FISA warrant application? Why wasn't he interviewed until the end of January 2017?


Whynaboutisms?
   104. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:04 PM (#5676568)
I don't think the guy is perfect. I also don't seem him masterminding a plot to... coerce?... the FBI into surveilling an opposing campaign. Doesn't seem his style to me, particularly when the Dems in general weren't concerned about actually losing. So "they" comically underrated Trump as a candidate *AND* abused the power of the office - just in case?
Do you know what an insurance policy is?
   105. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5676570)
In case anyone missed it


Chicken says what?
   106. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:07 PM (#5676573)
Chicken says what?


It's his second posting of that link. He's clearly been told to promote it.
   107. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5676574)
Also, you're not a conservative any more. You're a reactionary.
   108. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:11 PM (#5676580)
Also, you're not a conservative any more. You're a reactionary.
You still have no range at SS.
   109. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5676582)
You still have no range at SS.


I've never had range at SS. You used to be less than batshit insane. That's what makes it sad. You've gone from generally conservative but reasonable to a bad mockup of Wayne, mixed with the shill aspect of Clapper. It's sad to see, as a friend. You need an intervention, but you're too heavy on the junk to acknowledge it.
   110. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:17 PM (#5676585)
I've never had range at SS. You used to be less than batshit insane. That's what makes it sad. You've gone from generally conservative but reasonable to a bad mockup of Wayne, mixed with the shill aspect of Clapper. It's sad to see, as a friend. You need an intervention, but you're too heavy on the junk to acknowledge it.
So... you're really my protector, all the while accusing me of both plotting to commit genocide and destroy the Republic?

How... adorable. I guess.
   111. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5676591)
From last week's thread:
Again, if all guns in the US. suddenly disappeared tomorrow there would be an immediate and significant increase in all non-gun violence. Knives, axes, swords, hammers, bats, cars, trucks as a whole. This is axiomatic.


This is what passes for substance among the brain damaged Dancing Monkey set.
   112. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:22 PM (#5676592)
Harsanyi:
You believe Trump is corrupt. I get it. But surely anyone who alleges to be concerned about the sanctity of our institutions and rule of law would have some cursory curiosity about whether an investigation by the administration of one major party into the presidential campaign of another major party was grounded in direct evidence rather than fabulist rumor-mongering. Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted.

Then, when a constitutionally empowered oversight committee demanded information about that investigation, the DOJ could accuse it of “extortion” and stonewall for years.

I certainly don’t believe there’s a big conspiracy by the deep state. Rather it’s pretty obvious to me that leaders of our institutions aren’t above engaging in spying. John Brennan spied on the legislative branch and lied about it to the American people. James Clapper spied on the American people through a domestic surveillance program and lied about it to Congress. Although the Obama administration never tweeted nasty attacks on journalists, it did spy on and prosecute them. It’s completely plausible that those in the upper echelon of law enforcement saw Trump as a threat, then used wobbly evidence as the pretext to investigate his campaign. If not, it’ll be good to clear their names.

“FBI used informant to investigate Russia ties to campaign, not to spy, as Trump claims,” read a truly silly New York Times headline last week. You can call it whatever makes you happy, but in the real world the act of furtively gathering information about someone else is called “spying.” ...

Perhaps all of this will lead to nothing exciting. Perhaps the competing narratives that have sprung up around Trump and Russia will end far less dramatically than either of their champions hope. But when “rule of law” enthusiasts keep arguing the DOJ is “independent” of the president, then turn around and argue that a congressional oversight committee shouldn’t have the right to ask the executive branch for documents pertaining to their inquiry, one begins to suspect that perhaps some of the hyperbolic rhetoric we’ve been hearing over the past two years has been little more than partisanship.

Most of those arguing that Trump is attacking the “constitutional system,” by demanding the DOJ investigate its conduct, know well that he has full authority to do so. Many sat quietly for eight years of executive abuse. It’s not as if the president instructed the DOJ to stop following the law, after all. He had as much ammunition to ask for an investigation as Democrats had when asking for a special counsel. ...

Is Trump pushing the issue for political reasons? Of course. If Mueller doesn’t come back with any evidence of collusion — and all the other indictments and criminality he’s found matter, of course, but they have nothing to do with the impetus for the investigation — it will be all the more important to figure out what the previous administration was up to. Precedent and history matter. ...

If, as I’ve been assured by numerous smart people, the FBI and DOJ would never ever engage in such partisanship or recklessness — or maybe ineptitude — then a methodical accounting of events leading up to the special counsel investigation would help them.
+1
   113. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:24 PM (#5676593)
Harsanyi:


I would expect something more even-handed from the author of "Obama's Four Horsemen: The Disasters Unleashed by Obama's Reelection."
   114. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:24 PM (#5676594)
FTR -

"Plotting" assumes agency.

I don't think any Trumpkins - well, none of the ones here - possess that.

I think they're just enablers. Enablers are weak.
   115. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5676595)
Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted.


Yes, somebody actually wrote this.

Somebody who conveniently ignores that um... Trump tweet ignites investigates cooked-up for superficial reasons that some cable provocateur tells him.

FFS.



   116. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:27 PM (#5676596)
I think they're just enablers.


Courtiers.
   117. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:30 PM (#5676599)
So... you're really my protector


No. I'm simply telling you what is happening to you, while realizing that your intellectual devolution itself virtually guarantees that you won't be able to see what is happening to yourself.
   118. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:33 PM (#5676603)
Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted.


This is so glaringly ridiculous it requires ANOTHER post.

Exactly how many investigations have various IGs, the DOJ, and even newly formed commissions (voter fraud, anyone?) begun because Trump cooked up a superficial tweet demanding it.

+1 indeed.

+1, +10, +1000.
   119. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:36 PM (#5676608)
Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted.


I think I just might fill the whole page with this nonsense.

Justice Department ordered to re-examine Uranium One probe
   120. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5676610)
“FBI used informant to investigate Russia ties to campaign, not to spy, as Trump claims,” read a truly silly New York Times headline last week. You can call it whatever makes you happy, but in the real world the act of furtively gathering information about someone else is called “spying.” ...


As noted, we've gone from "no collusion" to \"##### set me up". An amazing turn.
   121. Lassus Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:42 PM (#5676611)
"Obama's Four Horsemen: The Disasters Unleashed by Obama's Reelection."

Well, that one got a +3
   122. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:43 PM (#5676612)
Somebody who conveniently ignores that um... Trump tweet ignites investigates cooked-up for superficial reasons that some cable provocateur tells him.
Of an opposing POTUS campaign? In secret? And leaking it to the Senate Minority Leader so that he can spread falsehoods to the press? And then, if the other side wins, weaponize the info afterward to destabilize the incoming administration?
   123. The usual palaver and twaddle (Met Fan Charlie) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5676614)
94

So "they" comically underrated Trump as a candidate *AND* abused the power of the office - just in case?


"Insurance policy."
   124. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:45 PM (#5676615)
How does Comey's October Surprise about reopening the inquiry against HRC fit into this so-called logical narrative?

As I explained to Andy this morning, that info was supposed to have been transmitted to Congress a month earlier. McCabe was trying to run out the clock.
I'll play along... OK, McCabe is now... identified? outed? established?... as the driving force behind the "DOJ/FBI spying on the campaign for political purposes". Explain to me again how Comey blowing that cover and (per 538.com data, anyway) swaying the electorate towards Trump is part of the overall plot.

Is Comey a good guy in that part of it? Or an addled proto-Guiliani that tried to help but stepped in it? I'm super-confused. I'm trying hard to understand it, too.
   125. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5676618)
Justice Department ordered to re-examine Uranium One probe


This is the most obvious and literal case of throwing #### at the wall in order to make the lies that "everyone does it" sell to the proles and idiots.
   126. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5676619)
Perhaps this explains the movement in the Generic Congressional Ballot polls? Two-Thirds Of Americans Give Trump Credit For Economy:
Most Americans believe President Trump is at least somewhat responsible for the good state of the economy, a CBS News poll revealed Sunday. According to the poll, 35 percent of Americans believe Trump’s policies are “a great deal” responsible for the economy’s performance. Another 33 percent said the president is "somewhat" responsible.

Overall, around two in three Americans believe the economy is in at least somewhat good shape, the poll found. In addition, 42 percent of respondents said they feel optimistic about the economy for the next couple of years.

I suppose it could be Nancy Pelosi, too.
   127. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:48 PM (#5676622)
Of an opposing POTUS campaign? In secret? And leaking it to the Senate Minority Leader so that he can spread falsehoods to the press? And then, if the other side wins, weaponize the info afterward to destabilize the incoming administration?


Tell your +1 to write with more specificity.

If your +1 says Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted. then you're ####### A right I'm going to point out the many, many, myriad of investigations your ######### master has cooked-up for precisely superficial reasons it wanted.

Don't blame other people because you and yours hobble around like blind, one-legged parodies of that which you claim is some kind of higher principle.

Nobody took your integrity from you. You farted it away on dollar store beans.

   128. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5676623)
Of an opposing POTUS campaign? In secret? And leaking it to the Senate Minority Leader so that he can spread falsehoods to the press? And then, if the other side wins, weaponize the info afterward to destabilize the incoming administration?


Devolution in action, kids.
   129. Chip Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5676624)
The White House Military Office has issued a commemorative coin for the planned North Korea meeting which identifies Kim Jong-un as Supreme Leader.
   130. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:50 PM (#5676625)
"Insurance policy."
We take out homeowner's insurance in case the unexpected happens (e.g., Trump victory in November) and want the hefty repair bill covered (e.g., kneecap/topple the incoming/new administration).
   131. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:51 PM (#5676627)
I'll play along... OK, McCabe is now... identified? outed? established?... as the driving force behind the "DOJ/FBI spying on the campaign for political purposes".


You know this, but to be clear to anyone who may not; you're now into the bit where you try to reason with the person arguing that "The Shining" is Stanley Kubrick admitting and apologizing for his part in filming the faked moon landing.
   132. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:52 PM (#5676628)
Tell your +1 to write with more specificity.

If your +1 says Otherwise, any administration, including Trump’s, could initiate an investigation for whatever cooked-up superficial reason it wanted. then you're ####### A right I'm going to point out the many, many, myriad of investigations your ######### master has cooked-up for precisely superficial reasons it wanted.

Don't blame other people because you and yours hobble around like blind, one-legged parodies of that which you claim is some kind of higher principle.

Nobody took your integrity from you. You farted it away on dollar store beans.
Oh dear, I hope you're a bit more sane in person because otherwise it's gonna be very touch-and-go at the border.
   133. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:55 PM (#5676630)
I hope you're a bit more sane in person


I hope you never make it to the polls again.
   134. Zonk is a Doorknob Whisperer Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:56 PM (#5676633)
Oh dear, I hope you're a bit more sane in person because otherwise it's gonna be very touch-and-go at the border.


Concession accepted.
   135. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: May 21, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5676635)
The White House Military Office has issued a commemorative coin for the planned North Korea meeting which identifies Kim Jong-un as Supreme Leader.


Is this real life? My goodness.
   136. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:03 PM (#5676637)
Warning another website is about to be declared too liberal to link to.


Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats

Despite forecasts of a blue tsunami, it’s still not guaranteed that Democrats will win back the House majority. But the playing field of competitive House races is expanding and shifting to almost exclusively Republican territory.

After the latest round of changes, Inside Elections now has 68 Republican seats rated as vulnerable compared to just 10 vulnerable Democratic seats. And there are at least a couple dozen more GOP-held seats that could develop into competitive races in the months ahead.

That discrepancy in the playing field is reminiscent of previous “wave” elections. In April 2010, there were 68 vulnerable Democratic House seats and 11 vulnerable Republican seats. Republicans gained 63 seats later than year. And in May 2006, there were 42 vulnerable Republican seats and 11 vulnerable Democratic seats. Six months later, Democrats gained 30 seats.


   137. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5676640)
From last week's thread:
Again, if all guns in the US. suddenly disappeared tomorrow there would be an immediate and significant increase in all non-gun violence. Knives, axes, swords, hammers, bats, cars, trucks as a whole. This is axiomatic.
Is the logic here that hammer-wielders are sitting on their hands these days?

My personal experience here is not extensive, but logic, observation, and a basic understanding of human nature leads me to this train of thought:

Sure, some number of those who are already pre-disposed to be bad guys would be emboldened by the sudden disappearance of guns. But it's one kind of courage to shoot a gun from a distance, and it's another to actually get in there and carve people up. The number of folks who are psycho enough to get bloody but cautious enough to not, because of guns, is unlikely to be "significant". Certainly not significant enough to counter the drop in violence due to GSW.

Also, lumping in cars and trucks here is at best lazy; at worst, deceptive. Vigilant citizens with handguns wouldn't have stopped McVeigh or what happened in Nice.
   138. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:07 PM (#5676641)
A reminder that there are some things one can do on a plane that are worse than reclining your seat - Airline Passenger Urinates On Seat In Front Of Him. Photo at link, it's 2018.
   139. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:09 PM (#5676642)
   140. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:15 PM (#5676649)
Harsanyi:

I would expect something more even-handed from the author of "Obama's Four Horsemen: The Disasters Unleashed by Obama's Reelection."

Well, that one got a +3

So what about these other entries by that same Federalist author?

"The Obama Legacy Deserves To Be Destroyed" and "The Freakout Over Sinclair Isn’t About Bias. It’s About The Wrong Bias"


   141. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5676651)
Is the logic here that hammer-wielders are sitting on their hands these days?


I think the logic is that weapons other than guns can substitute for the (now missing) gun. In economics we talk a fair amount about substitutes and Ray seems to be assuming that pretty much every weapon is a perfect substitute for a gun, which is obviously a shaky assumption to make.

I think it fair to say there would be a substitution effect, but I am doubtful it would be a perfect 1 for 1. Similar with other types of gun deaths, accidents and suicides. Removal of guns wouldn't eliminate then for obvious reasons, but it is doubtful the replacements in those instances would be perfect substitutes either.
   142. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5676656)
The White House Military Office has issued a commemorative coin for the planned North Korea meeting which identifies Kim Jong-un as Supreme Leader.

I'd love to have one of those as a souvenir of our times. It looks like a limited edition beer bottle cap.

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

A reminder that there are some things one can do on a plane that are worse than reclining your seat - Airline Passenger Urinates On Seat In Front Of Him. Photo at link, it's 2018.

No big deal. He was white. Obviously not a terrorist.
   143. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:23 PM (#5676657)
A reminder that there are some things one can do on a plane that are worse than reclining your seat - Airline Passenger Urinates On Seat In Front Of Him. Photo at link, it's 2018.


And you came across this while doing research on the alleged Trump piss tape, to try and debunk it.
   144. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5676660)
I love how they dismiss Papadopolous as the "coffee boy", because in every WH, the Coffee Boy can be seen in photographs sitting at the table 4 seats down from the president.

You boobs.
   145. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:36 PM (#5676674)
The "somewhat speculative" article from the Daily Caller, previously linked to here, was from late March, not the May 17 article linked in #23. The May 17 article came out after the NYT disclosed that a government informant met several times with Page & Papadopoulos, and it stops short of saying Halper is the informant:
The Lawfareblog piece linked to both the May Daily Caller piece I cited and a March one. But I don't see how changing the topic to the March one helps your argument; if anything, it hurts it. It's true that the March piece was a bit more coy than the May one, but only a bit, and it reveals Halper's name even earlier in this process, and specifically describes him as connected to U.S. and British intelligence. Pretending that the NYT/WaPo revealed information that had not already been revealed by the Daily Caller becomes even more disingenuous.
   146. spycake Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:49 PM (#5676685)
Again, if all guns in the US. suddenly disappeared tomorrow there would be an immediate and significant increase in all non-gun violence. Knives, axes, swords, hammers, bats, cars, trucks as a whole. This is axiomatic.


If all guns in the US suddenly disappeared tomorrow, we'd still have mortality rate of 100%. Tied with every other country on earth. Why can't liberals understand that simple fact?
   147. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:53 PM (#5676691)
WASHINGTON - The Supreme Court says employers can prohibit their workers from banding together to dispute their pay and conditions in the workplace, an important victory for business interests.
No. It says that employers and employees can agree to individual arbitration rather than class wide arbitration -- the same interpretation of the law that almost every other court has taken.
   148. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5676692)
The Lawfareblog piece linked to both the May Daily Caller piece I cited and a March one. But I don't see how changing the topic to the March one helps your argument; if anything, it hurts it. It's true that the March piece was a bit more coy than the May one, but only a bit, and it reveals Halper's name even earlier in this process, and specifically describes him as connected to U.S. and British intelligence. Pretending that the NYT/WaPo revealed information that had not already been revealed by the Daily Caller becomes even more disingenuous.

The NYT/WaPo articles were far more definitive than any earlier reporting. Those FBI/DoJ sources had been insisting that their informant was some super-secret, sensitive, undercover covert asset, and once that started to unravel just a bit, they ran to the media to disclose every possible identifying detail about him. Because they had to? No, because they wanted to, even if it meant burning their own informant, and contradicting their previous claims about the informant & the spying on the Trump campaign, in an effort to get out ahead of the spying story.
   149. Lassus Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:05 PM (#5676701)
No. It says that employers and employees can agree to individual arbitration rather than class wide arbitration

The WSJ is using the same "prohibit" language, as opposed to the "can agree" you are, so there seems a bit of dissention (that admittedly, I would need to look into more).
   150. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5676705)
In case anyone missed it, the GOP now leads the Reuters Generic Congressional Ballot Poll, 38.1% - 36.7%, a 1.4% margin.
and yet
Rating Changes in 19 House Races, All Toward Democrats



The movable object meets the resistible force.

Meanwhile, the Cook Report published a series of observations about the upcoming midterm. In order, they are:

*Trump's slightly improved approval numbers are still pretty bad. Previous presidents with similar approvals six months before the election (e.g. Reagan, Clinton, Obama) got creamed. But if Trump can show the mettle and popularity surge of the comeback kid Jimmy Carter, who was down at Trump levels in the spring of 1978 but improved to 49% by November, Republican losses could be more manageable.

*The generic ballot gets tighter whenever Trump's approval ticks upward. The generic ballot is good for an overall assessment of the midterm as a whole, but it's a poor metric to predict individual races and districts.

*Within individual districts, Trump's approval in November 2018 will be a more important marker than his vote margin in 2016. So far, many of the special elections have ebbed in close proportion to Trump's ebbed numbers.

*Trump's vote margins per district are also less important than his actual share of votes, because Trump's and Clinton's votes often did not add up to 100%. Winning by 50% to 40% is not nearly as good a bulwark as having won 55% to 45%. And there are 57 House seats whose districts Trump won with less than 53% of the vote. Hillary Clinton may have led in 39 of the 40 Pennsylvania polls preceding the election, but her vote share was stuck in the 40's... and we all saw what happened.

*Paul Ryan's resignation has not led to a rash of further GOP House retirements. That's a plus for the GOP, which is already hurting in this department.

*Republican enthusiasm has been rallying; Cook speculates that the economy and less overt internecine GOP strife may be the cause. Democratic voters' enthusiasm and intensity still outstrips the GOP's, but not by as much.

*Trump's approval rating among independents is only in the high 30's, with disapprovals in the mid-50's. But these terrible numbers are not as yet being mirrored in the generic ballot. Democratic support among independents trails the Trump disapproval rate by more than 10%. But that "absentee" 10% will ultimately land somewhere. In the 1994, 2006 and 2010 blowouts, the winning midterm party carried independents by margins of 14% to 19%. Independent voters see "the economy" and "health care" as the #1 issue in equal measure.
   151. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5676706)
I think the logic is that weapons other than guns can substitute for the (now missing) gun. In economics we talk a fair amount about substitutes and Ray seems to be assuming that pretty much every weapon is a perfect substitute for a gun, which is obviously a shaky assumption to make.


This is not a "shaky assumption to make." It's utterly batshit insane. There's a reason "don't bring a knife to a gun fight" is a saying. Guns make killing easier by doing massive bodily damage at distance, and make it more efficient by allowing one person to kill dozens of others without breaking a sweat. To kill with a knife or hammer, you have to get messy and breath hard. The hand waving to knife crime elsewhere is the stupidest thing in the world.
   152. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:15 PM (#5676710)
Pep Tech, always remember, and never forget, that when you attempt to engage with the Omega Dancing Monkey on "substance" you're engaging with an imbecile.
   153. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:23 PM (#5676717)

I don't think the guy is perfect. I also don't seem him masterminding a plot to... coerce?... the FBI into surveilling an opposing campaign. Doesn't seem his style to me, particularly when the Dems in general weren't concerned about actually losing. So "they" comically underrated Trump as a candidate *AND* abused the power of the office - just in case?
Yeah, that's the part of this that makes the conspiracy theory so silly: as of the time this investigation began, Hillary looked to have a commanding lead. The idea that the FBI would open an investigation of his campaign for political reasons at that time is nonsensical. Not to mention that a month later, Strzok was still trying to convince people that they should take the investigation of his campaign seriously. (The infamous, if misrepresented, "insurance policy" text.)
   154. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:30 PM (#5676723)
So supposedly Ambassador Downer learned from an inebriated Papadopoulos that there were these stolen e-mails, but it was this mysterious Professor Mifsud was the one who gave him that info. And that's enough to trigger a counterintelligence investigation of a presidential campaign? Why not contact Papadopoulos and interview him?
Because the FBI's m.o. is generally not to call up people who might be involved in a crime (or espionage) and say, "Hey, are you involved in a crime (or espionage)?"
And why wasn't he subject of a FISA warrant application? Why wasn't he interviewed until the end of January 2017?
Because, as I've pointed out before, interviewing possible targets of investigations is generally the last step in the FBI's process, not the first. They want to know everything it's possible to know about a person's involvement before they ever speak to the person.
And before anyone answers by citing the need to keep such an interview secret, in fact the January interview remained hidden until the day Mueller announced that he had pleaded guilty.
That kept it hidden from the public until the plea -- but not from Papadopoulos.
   155. Howie Menckel Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:39 PM (#5676730)
Fox's Neil Cavuto did not seem happy to report that Nevada's ex-con Don Blankenship, who finished 3rd in the recent West Virgina Republican primary, is running this fall as a 3rd-party candidate.
   156. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5676737)
Ok, thanks
   157. Hot Wheeling American, MS-13 Enthusiast Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:44 PM (#5676738)
In economics we talk a fair amount about substitutes and Ray seems to be assuming that pretty much every weapon is a perfect substitute for a gun, which is obviously a shaky assumption to make.

Actually, it's axiomatic.
   158. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:51 PM (#5676743)
Fox's Neil Cavuto did not seem happy to report that Nevada's ex-con Don Blankenship, who finished 3rd in the recent West Virgina Republican primary, is running this fall as a 3rd-party candidate.


Blankenship only got 20% in the WV primary, a full 15% less than winner Patrick Morrisey. Surely Captain Cave-In siphoning away 20%, or let's say 6% of the November vote couldn't make any difference in the Manchin-Morrisey Senate election.
   159. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5676746)
Fox's Neil Cavuto did not seem happy to report that Nevada's ex-con Don Blankenship, who finished 3rd in the recent West Virgina Republican primary, is running this fall as a 3rd-party candidate.

More accurately, attempting to run. West Virginia's "Sore Loser" Law may prevent Blankenship from appearing on the ballot, although he might still be able to mount a write-in campaign. Courts have generally upheld laws preventing those who lost in a primary from running as an independent in the general election, but litigation may be ahead in W. VA.

EDIT: For precision.
   160. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 04:59 PM (#5676749)
More accurately, attempting to run. West Virginia's "Sore Loser" Law may prevent Blankenship from appearing on the ballot


Free speech is super important unless it's against a Republican.
   161. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:14 PM (#5676755)
Charleston Gazette-Mail:
Experts: Door could be open for Blankenship to pursue independent Senate run
While it would likely require a legal challenge, some experts say there may be room for former Massey Energy CEO Don Blankenship to pursue an independent run for the U.S. Senate.

...A 2018 guide for candidates from the West Virginia Secretary of State’s Office says West Virginia has a “sore loser” — or “sour grapes” — law prohibiting candidates from losing in a primary election and running independently for the same seat in a general.

After reviewing state code, some experts raised their eyebrows at the notion. Michael Kang teaches elections law at Emory University and has authored academic work on “sour grapes” laws around the country. He said a potential wording error in the law could leave the door open for Blankenship’s run. “Blankenship probably has an uphill fight to run as an independent after losing the primary, but the law is fuzzy enough that he has an argument against the [Secretary of State’s] position,” he said.

Specifically, Kang noted the law cited by the Secretary of State prohibits independent runs after a primary loss from “candidates who are not already candidates in the primary election for public office.” He said because Blankenship was — not is — a candidate for the primary election for public office, he may have room to argue. However, he said it is unlikely the Secretary of State would interpret the code as such, potentially triggering a legal challenge. He also said it would be hard to tease out the legislative intent from a wording error.

“It’s a decent argument without knowing more, and if I were determined to run and had the resources to litigate, I would think it’s worth trying out,” Kang said.

Mike Queen, communications director for Secretary of State Mac Warner, said there is no specific language currently in West Virginia code that spells out a sour grapes law. However, he said his office would look to the “intent” of the lawmakers. “The Secretary’s position is that Mr. Blankenship is not permitted to run again in the general election for the United States Senate,” he said. “If Mr. Blankenship pursues the matter, he will most likely have to bring a legal action to force the Secretary to approve his candidacy and to place his name on the general election ballot. At that time, the court would have to rely on legislative intent, among other legal issues and perhaps previous decisions, to determine if Mr. Blankenship is entitled to run again.”

Robert Bastress teaches constitutional law at West Virginia University. He, too, noted the past-tense/present-tense issue in how the law was phrased. He said he looked into the matter when the Legislature last amended the code and found no effective sour grapes clause. “I know when the Legislature last amended [the law], it thought it had precluded sore losers, but when I researched the issue after that amendment, I concluded that it was not totally clear that it had done so,” he said. “There is nothing in the Code, to my knowledge, that is as clear as what the [Secretary of State] says.” He said it seems as if it could be argued either way.

The Legislature passed a bill this year amending the code section handling independent runs to more clearly delineate a sour grapes law. “For the purposes of this section, any person who was a candidate for nomination by a recognized political party as defined in §3-1-8 of this code may not, after failing to win the nomination of his or her political party, become a candidate for the same political office by virtue of the nomination-certificate process as set forth in this section,” reads House Bill 4434. But that bill is not effective until 90 days from its March 7 passage.


The article notes additional hurdles that Blankenship faces-- getting enough signatures by August 1; another code section; more skeptical opinions; third party nomination processes. Seems like unfavorable odds for Blankenship.

But an elections law expert named Anthony Majestro-- who predicts Blankenship's do-over effort will be thwarted-- has what may be the key quote:
“To me the interesting political question is not whether or not he can run himself, the question is how much of his money is he willing to spend to impact whether Patrick Morrisey or Joe Manchin wins that election.”
   162. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:25 PM (#5676761)
Because the FBI's m.o. is generally not to call up people who might be involved in a crime (or espionage) and say, "Hey, are you involved in a crime (or espionage)?"
LMAO. What was the supposed crime?
   163. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:28 PM (#5676765)

“FBI used informant to investigate Russia ties to campaign, not to spy, as Trump claims,” read a truly silly New York Times headline last week. You can call it whatever makes you happy, but in the real world the act of furtively gathering information about someone else is called “spying.” ...
This is pretty much literally the opposite of true. Well, no, I guess it's not false to say that furtive information gathering is spying. What it's false to say is that talking to someone is furtive information gathering. If the FBI had a mole inside the Trump campaign, who was secretly ("furtively") passing on documents or reports of private meetings, then, yeah, you could reasonably describe that as spying. If the FBI had someone (Halper, or anyone else) simply overtly initiate conversations with Papadopoulos or Page or the like, that's not spying.
   164. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5676766)
Also, where was the evidence of espionage? All we know to date is that this Professor Mifsud informed him that the Russians had Hillary's e-mails.
   165. Joe Bivens is NOT a clueless numpty Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:29 PM (#5676767)
Because the FBI's m.o. is generally not to call up people who might be involved in a crime (or espionage) and say, "Hey, are you involved in a crime (or espionage)?"


Wasn't that Trump's gambit with Roy Moore? ("He said he didn't do it.")
   166. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:33 PM (#5676770)
Trump meets with Rosenstein after 'demand' DOJ 'look into' whether campaign 'infiltrated':
President Donald Trump met Monday afternoon at the White House with Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein and FBI Director Christopher Wray a day after he tweeted that he would "demand" the Justice Department investigate whether his 2016 presidential campaign was improperly "infiltrated or surveilled" for political purposes.
Evan McMurray adds:
MORE: "White House Chief of Staff Kelly will immediately set up a meeting with the FBI, DOJ, and DNI together with Congressional Leaders to review highly classified and other information they have requested," White House says.
Boom?
   167. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 05:40 PM (#5676775)
Cue Sammy, zonk, and Andy frothing at the mouth in 3, 2, 1...

Why does Trump get away with corruption? Because Bill and Hillary Clinton normalized it:
Democrats told voters that taking high-dollar speaking fees right before you run for president from the industries you might regulate should you become president was just something everybody does. They said it was unsophisticated to worry if entities related to you had been fundraising from countries with foreign-policy interests before the US.

They said nobody would object if a man did these things.

They said you should look past the finances and understand that the Clintons shared your values and had your best interests at heart.

Of course, the Clintons' behavior was never normal. They had the second-deepest set of financial conflicts of interest we've seen in a national political operation in my lifetime — second only to Trumpworld.

Democrats could have picked virtually any other candidate for president and gotten a clean advantage on the corruption issue in the general election. But by defending the Clinton model, Democrats were playing right into Trump's hands, essentially telling voters there would always be a swamp, that everybody does it, that a leader is always going to have financial interests that intertwine with his or her public duties. ...

Close associates using the perception of closeness to officials to seek large consulting fees from businesses? How do you think Bill Clinton's former personal aide, Doug Band, got rich enough to buy David Rockefeller's $20 million mansion?

Getting in private business at the same time you serve as a top official adviser in government? Huma Abedin was doing it years before Jared Kushner.

You can even compare the Clinton and Trump swamps live in action in Prague this month, where Steve Bannon will debate longtime Clinton confidant (and brownnoser) Lanny Davis at an event sponsored by the Czech defense contractor for which Davis lobbies.

My point is not that what Bill and Hillary Clinton's associates did is as bad as what Trump and his associates have done. It's not as bad. Trumpworld has taken graft and influence peddling to a new, vulgar level. And my sense is Trump's associates have been significantly more sloppy about legal compliance than Clintonworld ever was.

But the fundamental ethical concern is the same: that a leader has marinated himself or herself in financial conflicts of interest, making it unclear where the public interest ends and private interest begins. ...

Sometimes, people ask me why I can't let my anger at the Clintons go.

This is my answer: More than any other individuals, Bill and Hillary Clinton are responsible for creating the impression of inevitable corruption that Trump has exploited to get his supporters to shrug off his own corruption.

It's not true that everybody does it. But for years, the message from Clinton surrogates was that everybody does it and we should just get over it. Voters heard that message.
Last I checked, Barro was a moderate and virulently anti-Trump.
   168. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:24 PM (#5676801)
Ronald Reagan got paid $2 million to make two speeches in Japan. After him, George HW Bush also got into the speech business. Gerald Ford is considered the first ex-President to really cash in, unless you count Nixon's payday with David Frost. Hard to pin this slushy graft as an idea invented by Bill Clinton. Whatabout everybody.
   169. Traderdave Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:30 PM (#5676804)
Truman was upfront about his motive for writing a memoir: money.
   170. Lassus Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:36 PM (#5676810)
Not for Jason it isn't.
   171. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:52 PM (#5676815)
First, I generally like Barro and his opinions are not all universally categorically wrong the way most links from Jason are.

Second, he’s not wrong that the Clintons took the corruption ball from the Reagan cadre and advanced the ball. (He is only 33 so he may not realize that they were incremental updates to established corruptions, though.)

Third, that the Clintons were corrupt doesn’t justify Trump being far more corrupt. Barro seems to understand this, but Jason is so buried in the holes of Juanaboutism that he can’t see anything but his own ####. If he had a moral backbone he would oppose Trump more than he did the Clintons. But he values aaccess to power, even tangentially, above all else.
   172. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: May 21, 2018 at 06:54 PM (#5676818)
Of course, you want corruption, look at Iran Contra. But don’t expect Jason and company to care.
   173. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:06 PM (#5676823)
Iran Contra? But JUANABOUT Teapot Dome?
   174. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:06 PM (#5676824)
The Hill:
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) is denying that he has had conversations about trying to force out Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) with President Trump's budget director, Mick Mulvaney.

The Weekly Standard on Monday quoted Mulvaney as saying he had talked with McCarthy about the possibility of holding a Speaker's vote before the midterm elections. "I've talked with Kevin about this privately but not as much publicly,” Mulvaney said. “Wouldn't it be great to force a Democrat running in a tight race to have to put up or shut up about voting for Nancy Pelosi eight weeks before an election? That's a really, really good vote for us to force if we can figure out how to do it."

...Rumors of a push for Ryan to step down have intensified following the failure of the farm bill Friday — a top priority for the Wisconsin Republican due to its language on welfare reform — and the growing push from moderates to force floor votes on immigration. Some question whether Ryan, as a lame-duck Speaker, is losing control of the conference.

But McCarthy said..."The only thing we talk about — not about a Speaker race, we talk about how divided the Democrats are. People don't realize, you know, we were laughing one day, saying we're divided, here we are passing all those big pieces of legislation," he continued. "If you sit with Democrats, they're totally divided."

Once upon a time, there were similar "no chance, no way, no how" denials about the rumors of Paul Ryan stepping down as Speaker that were published literally the day before Paul Ryan announced he would step down. Some readers even bought them.
   175. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:27 PM (#5676836)
Ronald Reagan got paid $2 million to make two speeches in Japan. After him, George HW Bush also got into the speech business. Gerald Ford is considered the first ex-President to really cash in, unless you count Nixon's payday with David Frost. Hard to pin this slushy graft as an idea invented by Bill Clinton. Whatabout everybody.
Oh dear, Gonfalon.

Nixon had left office, never to return. Ditto with Ford, Reagan, and Bush 41.

In contrast, the Clinton corporate machine got moving while Hillary was prepping for a POTUS run, then didn't slow down while she was Secretary of State, and went into overdrive while she readied another run at the White House.

Meanwhile, props to Sammy for offering a marginally cogent reply.
   176. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:31 PM (#5676840)
Yes, that fresh, freckle-faced newcomer Hillary Clinton, entering the unfamiliar world of politics with all her connections and deals still ahead of her. Oh dear.

How about William McKinley? Does William McKinley work for you?
   177. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:35 PM (#5676844)
A perhaps timely sentiment - Justice Ginsburg Calls For Return To 'Bipartisan Spirit' For Judicial Confirmations:
Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Monday called for a return to the “bipartisan spirit” that used to prevail in Congress during judicial confirmations — and characterized the lack of it a “threat” to the federal courts. Ginsburg’s remarks came as she accepted the Henry J. Friendly Medal during an event hosted by the American Law Institute.

“My hope is that one fine day, Congress will return to the bipartisan spirit that prevailed for my nomination,” and that of Justices Antonin Scalia and Stephen Breyer, she said. The late Scalia was confirmed unanimously by the Senate, Ginsburg was confirmed by a vote of 96-3, while Breyer was confirmed by a vote of 80-10. [emphasis added]

So, what happened after the wide, bipartisan support for the Ginsburg & Breyer confirmations? Senate Democrats returned the favor by breaking with tradition and voting against John Roberts in large numbers (78-22 for the full Senate), and then voted overwhelmingly against Samuel Alito (58-42), with prominent Democrats such as Obama, Clinton, Biden, Kerry, Kennedy, Leahy, Schumer & Reid voting against both. Alito was even filibustered. Ginsburg just bench-slapped Senate Democrats for it. Better late than never.
   178. Hysterical & Useless Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:40 PM (#5676847)
Truman was upfront about his motive for writing a memoir: money


No man but a blockhead ever wrote except for money.

S Johnson, LLD
   179. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:41 PM (#5676848)
Yes, that fresh, freckle-faced newcomer Hillary Clinton, entering the unfamiliar world of politics with all her connections and deals still ahead of her. Oh dear.
Governments, companies, and wealthy individuals gave to the Clinton Foundation/CGI because they thought it a pretty decent bet that she would be POTUS sooner or later. It was even more of a slam-dunk decision when she was Secretary of State and could return favors immediately. (Note I'm not even touching upon the yuge disparity in revenues between the Clintons and Nixon, Ford, Reagan, and Bush 41.)
   180. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:42 PM (#5676849)
McKinley's campaign manager Mark Hanna: "There are two things that are important in politics. The first is money, and I can't remember what the second one is."
   181. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:54 PM (#5676854)
Sean Davis on Halper:
Weird: FBI spied on Trump campaign.
Weirder: Alleged FBI spy endorsed Hillary.
Weirdest: He endorsed her in an exclusive interview *w/ state-owned Russian media.*
2018: The alleged campaign spy then tried to become an internal Trump admin spy.

That last sentence is in reference to this: Exclusive: Peter Navarro pushed Stefan Halper for Trump job
   182. Howie Menckel Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:55 PM (#5676856)
one might be able to count on one hand the principled votes against Roberts or Alito.
then again, the Garland debacle didn't raise the rectitude of the august Senate, either.
   183. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2018 at 07:57 PM (#5676858)
So supposedly Ambassador Downer learned from an inebriated Papadopoulos that there were these stolen e-mails, but it was this mysterious Professor Mifsud was the one who gave him that info. And that's enough to trigger a counterintelligence investigation of a presidential campaign?


Yes. Well, not "of a presidential campaign", because that didn't happen and that doesn't make any sense because a presidential campaign (particularly the Trump campaign) is not an "intelligence" operation, thus making a counterintelligence investigation nonsensical.

A tip from a 5 eyes ally that Russia is messing with one of our candidates (that they stole Clinton's email, for example), is totally worth opening a counterintelligence investigation.

Why not contact Papadopoulos and interview him?


Because they didn't want it to leak and either: screw with the election (!lol) or tip off the Russians. Like, it's the whole reason why they used a CI--they wanted to talk to him, but they didn't want to make it official and tip anyone off. They thought they could square the circle with an informant doing the interview in an informal setting.

Why wasn't he interviewed until the end of January 2017?


Because they didn't want to interfere with the campaign.

**

This has been another episode of stupid conspiracy theory questions being answered by publicly available information.
   184. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:17 PM (#5676867)
Yes. Well, not "of a presidential campaign", because that didn't happen and that doesn't make any sense because a presidential campaign (particularly the Trump campaign) is not an "intelligence" operation, thus making a counterintelligence investigation nonsensical.
What the #### are you trying to say?

A tip from a 5 eyes ally that Russia is messing with one of our candidates (that they stole Clinton's email, for example), is totally worth opening a counterintelligence investigation.
What evidence exists that this was a produce of "Five Eyes" information? There's no record of a report from Australian intelligence.

And if you're looking for someone to investigate, why Papadopoulos and not Mifsud, the guy who claimed to know about Russia messing around? To my knowledge, the Bureau never made contact with him.

Because they didn't want it to leak
This is nonsense. How would it have leaked? And as noted before, no one learned of the claimed drunken encounter until ABGL published the info on 30 December 2017, more than two months *after* Mueller announced that Papadopoulos had cut a deal.

Because they didn't want to interfere with the campaign.
No, because they didn't want this #### to be discovered -- ever. These ######## only leaked the info -- with their own spin attached -- when their activities were about to come to light.
   185. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:26 PM (#5676872)
What the #### are you trying to say?


He’s saying you’re an idiot Juan. A hysterical, feckless, sackless idiot.
   186. tshipman Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:30 PM (#5676877)
What the #### are you trying to say?


A counter-intelligence investigation cannot be "of a presidential campaign". Counter-intelligence means that you're trying to thwart an external intelligence operation.

Now, a *criminal* investigation can be of a campaign, and indeed, there is one now. But there cannot be a counter-intelligence investigation of a campaign because a campaign is not an intelligence agency.
   187. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5676885)
A counter-intelligence investigation cannot be "of a presidential campaign". Counter-intelligence means that you're trying to thwart an external intelligence operation.
So you prefer "counterintelligence operation directed against members of the Trump campaign?" Fine, go for it. There was such an investigation and apparently four members were surveilled as a result.
   188. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:40 PM (#5676887)
A counter-intelligence investigation cannot be "of a presidential campaign".

A counter-intelligence investigation can certainly be a pretext to spy on a presidential campaign, as well as become an October Surprise when the story that the presidential campaign is "under investigation" is leaked just before the election, which is what happened to the Trump campaign.
   189. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:44 PM (#5676892)
We're seeing a lot of counter-intelligence right here on this thread.
   190. DavidFoss Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:46 PM (#5676893)
October Surprise when the story that the presidential campaign is "under investigation" is leaked just before the election, which is what happened to the Trump campaign.

Which October did you live through? The Mother Jones article that nobody read until months later?

This "Trump as victim" game is really ramping up of late. Is bad news dropping soon that you're trying to distract us from?
   191. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 08:46 PM (#5676895)
Byron York:
But now comes word of the FBI informant, described in various accounts as a retired American professor living in England. The Washington Post reported that, "The professor's interactions with Trump advisers began a few weeks before the opening of the investigation, when Page met the professor at the British symposium."

A few weeks before the opening of the investigation — those are the words that have raised eyebrows among Hill investigators. If it was before the investigation, then what was an FBI informant doing gathering undercover information when there was not yet an investigation?

The question has pointed investigators back to the issue of when the probe began — not when a piece of paper was formally signed but when the FBI, and perhaps other U.S. intelligence agencies, began investigating the Trump campaign.


In early July, Trump dossier author Christopher Steele, the former British spy, approached the FBI with the first installment of the dossier. (It was the part that alleged Trump took part in a kinky sex scene with prostitutes in a Moscow hotel in 2013.) Also in early July — just a few days later — Page made a much-watched trip to deliver a speech in Moscow. Also in July, FBI officials say they learned about Papadopoulos' meeting a few months earlier with a Russian-connected professor. And still in July, hacked emails from the Democratic National Committee were released.

Somewhere around the time all that was happening, according to the latest reporting, the FBI informant began his work.
Emphasis mine.
   192. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:07 PM (#5676912)
October Surprise:
Computer scientists have apparently uncovered a covert server linking the Trump Organization to a Russian-based bank.
It's time for Trump to answer serious questions about his ties to Russia.
   193. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5676922)
It's time for Trump to answer serious questions about his ties to Russia.

Well, 31 months later and we're still waiting.
   194. Stormy JE Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:18 PM (#5676934)
Ari:

Seems to me the headline here should have been the quote cited by Peter Strzok, attributed to a redacted source, saying “The White House is running this”, referring in August 2016 to the opening of the Trump counter-intelligence investigation.
A text from an FBI agent in 2016 says “the White House is running this”, referring to the opening of the Trump investigation, and today’s press corps pays it no attention. It’s amazing the press looks the other way. And they wonder why people think they’re biased.
   195. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:22 PM (#5676938)
From the Tweet comments:

“... it's not at all clear from the text messages that this was what he was referring to.“

Reply from original poster:

“of course it's not clear and i note that FBI redacted the name of the person who said that about the WH.”

SCANDALOUS! JUANABOUT KENYAN MUSLIM TERRORISTS!
   196. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:23 PM (#5676939)
Well, 31 months later and we're still waiting


Throw it on the heap with the tax returns.
   197. The Yankee Clapper Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5676947)
A counter-intelligence investigation can certainly be a pretext to spy on a presidential campaign, as well as become an October Surprise when the story that the presidential campaign is "under investigation" is leaked just before the election, which is what happened to the Trump campaign.

Which October did you live through? The Mother Jones article that nobody read until months later?

The Mother Jones article came out on October 31, 2016. You think the Dems should get a pass because most of the media thought their unsupported dossier/investigation story was too far fetched to publish?
   198. DavidFoss Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:32 PM (#5676956)
October Surprise:

Who was paying attention to that? The NYTimes wasn't buying it at the time. Yet everyone (including the NYTimes) was going ape about the Wiener/Abedin laptop. Lock her up! Lock her up!

I don't understand your game here. Trump hires money-laundering crook with Russian ties to run his campaign. Several other members of his campaign have ties to Russia. Russia hacks a couple of Democratic servers and dumps them through wikileaks right in the middle of the campaign. Is there a connection? Well, you'd better not try to find out or you're the real criminal!

They say Trump could shoot someone on Fifth Avenue and not lose any votes. I think he could shoot YOU and not lose you're vote. You'd be lying on the ground, bleeding out, saying "Hillary did worse... *gasp*... you'll never get 67 votes in the Senate... *gasp*... tax cuts... *gurgle* Gorsuch... *gurgle* *gurgle* *gasp*.

Actually, that sounds more like Clapper :-)

Then if anyone who witnessed the event came forward, then Zombie Clapper would claw his way out of his own grave and demand that the witness be investigated because the witness might put Trump at a political disadvantage.
   199. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:44 PM (#5676964)
LMAO. What was the supposed crime?
Well, hacking the DNC's servers was clearly a crime.

Also, where was the evidence of espionage? All we know to date is that this Professor Mifsud informed him that the Russians had Hillary's e-mails.
That's sort of an Andyesqe question: "Aside from the answer to my question, what's the answer to my question?"
   200. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: May 21, 2018 at 09:47 PM (#5676968)
Flipski.
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