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Monday, October 15, 2018

OTP 2018 October 15: The shift in focus from sport to politics

Since I’m hinting at it, here’s my shameless plug: if you can sit through four hours of football and its stoppage time, you can’t justify calling baseball boring. October belongs to America’s pastime. I feel that this whole landscape will look different a decade from now, with football at the lower half of the totem pole.

My opinion isn’t entirely biased. This issue with politics bleeding into the discussion is a serious crutch for an otherwise praised NFL, and until that’s no longer a factor, people are going to shift away. The NBA waters are nice these days too, I’m hearing.

(As always, views expressed in the article lede and comments are the views of the individual commenters and the submitter of the article and do not represent the views of Baseball Think Factory or its owner.)

Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 15, 2018 at 08:26 AM | 1522 comment(s) Login to Bookmark
  Tags: off topic, politics

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   1101. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 01:57 PM (#5770410)
This is a very nice profile of Heidi Cruz, but buried way down in the piece is a pretty damn big Are You Kidding Me?!?!

It may be Heidi’s way of avoiding one truth she’s learned as a political spouse: that this life only gets harder as it goes on. Another term in the Senate means six more years her husband won’t live at home. It means more family conversations about why Dad can’t make it to school on Wednesday for the meet and greet with Caroline’s new teachers. It means Heidi is working 70-hour weeks not only because she wants to, but also because she has to.

“I really feel mission-driven on what he’s accomplishing,” she clarified. But “it does take some supportiveness, you know. Six to seven years in it, with me being the primary breadwinner—it’s like, ‘Uh, yeah, this is when people say thank you. I’ll now take that appreciation.’” She laughed. “Yeah, we’re seven years into this, and we’re not buying a second home anytime soon.”


Ted's Senate salary alone is $174,000 - which would put him in the top 15% of household income.

Not in TFA, but googling around - I see her Goldman Sachs salary is $360,000...

The "top 1%" of household income is $459,000.

Gimme a break.
   1102. dlf Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5770412)
I'd forgotten how annoying some college profs can be - my son's freshman year he took a guitar class. He had to miss a Friday for a family event and checked with the prof the day before to see about missing anything. The prof said he hadn't decided about any assignments yet, maybe, maybe not. My son checked the online page on Sunday, nothing. Monday there was a "listening test" which he had no chance at, not knowing what to prepare for, and went to he prof's office to see what the heck, there was nothing online. Five minutes later the prof amended the online page to reflect the assignment.

He goes back to the prof to see what can be done, and the guy says he can't allow any makeups, but for 50% credit my son could attend the prof's performance at some local club and write up a two-page critique. Yeah, right. He dropped the class.


That is super shitty. And that is a case where a petty Dean should bring the hammer down


OK, last post before I have to get some work done.

I spent one semester as an adjunct teaching a single class in bankruptcy & creditor rights. It was a pretty small class with about 20 students. One woman came the first day and the final, missing every other session. The last class before the final, I did a course review that was basically the final with very slightly modified fact pattern (e.g. "Adam borrows $20 from Bob" changed to "Alice borrows $200 from Betty"). I ended up giving out almost all As and Bs but this one woman got a D and deserved an F.

She complained to the Dean. I had to spend the better part of a day writing up why the exam was fair and documenting that we had covered the material in the class and assigned texts then another part of different day meeting with the Dean and another faculty member to walk through the exam and material. In the end, the school officials did not overrule me.

As an adjunct I was already making close to minimum wage. Dealing with that issue pushed me over the edge and, other than a handful of 1 hour CLE lectures, I haven't taught since.

The postscript is that, unknown to me, the woman was working part-time as a clerk at the local Victoria's Secret. My last name isn't too common. My wife went in to buy something and hands this woman our credit card. Let's just say my wife was not pleased by the reception.
   1103. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:00 PM (#5770413)
Paying to get the specially sized and backgrounded photo?

Doesn't Costco do this for like $5? Big deal.

The "no-smile" requirement is intriguing.


Probably, but I got mine at a Walgreens - solely because I could walk to it - and it was $15.

I mean, granted, I'm not skipping dinner to get it taken obviously, but the topic was convenience... and I'm just saying I think it could be more convenient.

Except you have to mail them in for re-newal (or drive to a passport office, which isn't very convenient for a lot of us). Takes 3-4 weeks to get it back, and in the meantime, if you have to fly somewhere at last notice, you're screwed.


Indeed.

In my case, sure - partly it's my own fault for not renewing a couple months ago, but there's a chance I'll be traveling abroad for work "sometime in early November", so I went with the express processing just so I don't get caught flat-footed with the hassle.
   1104. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:01 PM (#5770415)
I would think it would be a benefit not to have Grumpy Ted around the house much.

Any time she'd like to trade household incomes, I suspect she'd have a lot of takers. Boo hoo for not having a *second* home, lady.
   1105. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5770416)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist? I just laugh at that. Nobody can possibly be that focused at work for that long. I've seen it on campaigns. People are just zombies and accomplish nothing except brownie points for showing up at 7am and staying until 8pm. And the decision-making at that mental state isn't the best.
   1106. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:05 PM (#5770418)
The mail-in window does make it tricky for frequent overseas travelers.

On the other hand, if your employment requires you to work overseas often, then either they'll help with the fee or are paying you enough that $175 isn't *that* big a deal...
   1107. CheersUnusualPlays Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:08 PM (#5770420)
Canada passport - go to Walmart, pay $8 for a passport photo. Print application from website, go into passport office, send $160, two weeks later get passport in mail, good for 10 years. Passport office wait is usually at least an hour
   1108. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:09 PM (#5770422)
Chefs will work that much. I have for stretches. It’s horrible and unhealthy. I had an employee that worked close to 100 hours a week for 2-3 months, cheffing a new restaurant. 7 days, 8am-11pm or thereabouts. Very rare days off. I felt awful about that.

I agree that your work quality goes way way down eventually. The issue is when you’re doing training and quality control that literally nobody else can do. I would never allow myself to get into that situation again.
   1109. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:12 PM (#5770424)
Chefs will work that much. I have for stretches. It’s horrible and unhealthy. I had an employee that worked close to 100 hours a week for 2-3 months, cheffing a new restaurant. 7 days, 8am-11pm or thereabouts. Very rare days off. I felt awful about that.


Yea good call. I worked in restaurants all throughout HS and college front and back of the house. GM and Chef are positions that I probably would never, never want to do. The feeling of dread you must get waking up at 6am and going through that day's stock and ordering and knowing you're not going to be going home until the kitchen closes at 7 (if that) -- soul sucking imo. That said, even at the lower levels of restaurant work there is a team spirit that infects you at times and drives you on.

Well that and the weed breaks.
   1110. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:13 PM (#5770425)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist? I just laugh at that. Nobody can possibly be that focused at work for that long. I've seen it on campaigns. People are just zombies and accomplish nothing except brownie points for showing up at 7am and staying until 8pm. And the decision-making at that mental state isn't the best.


I've been through periods - not extended periods, mind you, but the occasional month here or there - where I know I've clocked the neighborhood of 70 hours.

My own higher-ups and current workplace environment very much frowns on such stuff - one of the reasons I rate my current management very high, not just for quality of life, but because as you say - they recognize it just does not lead to optimal results, even if it helps get something done on time... you inevitably pay afterwards with the sufferers being so cranky and frazzled they're near worthless for a month afterward (like I said, been there).

I will admit, however - I used to always make a point of responding to something reasonable/worthwhile first thing in the morning at 6-7 AM and then another something at 9-10 PM before bed. I don't bother anymore - of course, but especially with certain sorts of leadership (READ: generally, the sort who isn't very good or knowledgeable in a given role)? I've seen it pay dividends.
   1111. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:20 PM (#5770430)
1105. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:03 PM (#5770416)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist?


Yes. They’re called “the poor.” But they don’t brag about it on Facebook.
   1112. BrianBrianson Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:21 PM (#5770431)
Although yes, most people who claim to work >60 hours/week are either full of ####, or putzing around the office commenting on baseball themed message boards.

I have legit hit 70 at rare points, and I'd say it's the same. It's not sustainable, quality goes downhill, and really, your life falls apart unless someone else is running it for you. I did it as an undergrad, and when my roommate pointed out I should call this girl to break up with her, it turned out she had assumed as much two weeks prior. I had totally failed to notice any time had passed, but I think that conversation was me getting home from school at 5 am, and bumping into him leaving for school.
   1113. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:23 PM (#5770435)
I've been through periods - not extended periods, mind you, but the occasional month here or there - where I know I've clocked the neighborhood of 70 hours.


Yeah, I had had stretches where I worked 70 and even 80 hours. It kind of sucked, but it is not an all the time thing. When I was at Target me and my team worked graveyard for two weeks straight just so we could spend all our time in video conferences with India (it as easier for us to time shift than them).

Of course all that came to a halt when I became a contractor and not an employee. Now days I am excited when I can bill more than 40 hours a week - blessing of the massive, company effecting, and kind of train wreck project I am an SME (subject matter expert) on, I get to bill both that project (up to 8 hours a week) and my normal project (up to 40 hours a week) and thy are cool with it. Since the wife bought a business this year my bank balance appreciates it.
   1114. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:25 PM (#5770441)
Another Republican Endorses Democrat In Kansas

Former Kansas Gov. Mike Hayden (R) joined the growing ranks of Republicans endorsing Laura Kelly’s (D) run for governor over Kris Kobach (R), the Kansas City Star reports.

Said Hayden: “After eight years of crisis, we cannot elect someone who wants to repeat the disasters of the past. Kris Kobach has promised to do just that — risking the future of our great state.”

All living ex-Republican governors have now endorsed Kelly, except Sam Brownback (R).
   1115. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:26 PM (#5770442)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist? I just laugh at that. Nobody can possibly be that focused at work for that long. I've seen it on campaigns. People are just zombies and accomplish nothing except brownie points for showing up at 7am and staying until 8pm. And the decision-making at that mental state isn't the best.

They certainly do, but probably not every week. Of course, when they're at Cruz's level they usually don't sit in the office 14 hours a day for 5 days. They probably work 10-12 hours per day in the office, or running from one client meeting to another. Then maybe they spend an hour or two after dinner reviewing documents from home each night, have a few hours of conference calls and document review on Saturday and Sunday as well.

When I was younger, I pretty routinely worked 90+ hour weeks (9-midnight+ M-Fr, 8 hours on Sat and Sun). Again, not every week, but when in the middle of big transactions certainly. I suspect most corporate lawyers or investment bankers have had similar experiences.

They're not 100% focused for all 70+ hours but neither is the guy who works a 40-hour work week.

EDIT: And yeah, it wasn't great for my health, I didn't really date at all, I routinely let little things like renewing my car registration lapse, etc. But 60-70 hours is pretty manageable and consistent with a lot of the successful people I know.
   1116. Howie Menckel Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:28 PM (#5770444)
I worked I think 43 days in a row in one stretch about 25 years ago - and the majority of those days were on the road, but never for more than 5 days at a time. so a ton of flights, too. and a lot of the work was on very tight deadlines, and of course available for the public to see (and if warranted, ridicule).

I took to calling it "playoff mode" - you just get up every day and do it again, not knowing when the streak will end (it almost did a couple of times in the middle of that streak).

I suppose it depends a lot on whether the work is desirable to the worker and how stressful it is.
   1117. . Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:37 PM (#5770450)
Yes. They’re called “the poor.” But they don’t brag about it on Facebook.


Hey, work 70 hour weeks at $10/hour, with two weeks vacation, and you too can make $35,000 per year!!!
   1118. Lassus Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:41 PM (#5770454)
The "no-smile" requirement is intriguing.

Did no one answer this? Smiling scrunches up your face, making it more difficult to see the color of your eyes in the photograph.
   1119. McCoy Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:49 PM (#5770461)
Yes. They’re called “the poor.” But they don’t brag about it on Facebook.

This. I know tons of people between multiple jobs that work that many hours or more every single week. Though they are not all "poor" especially with all those hours.

There are a lot of people that probably work 60 to 70 hours a week and they just don't know and there are also who probably 60 to 70 hours a week and it doesn't turn them into a zombie. Think about all those people that are never off their phone and are constantly answering emails, texts, and calling in after hours or on their days off. Or the people that work all day at work but aren't constantly repelling the Huns. Not all work is tedious or stressful and depending on the job and location spending all day at work can be quite pleasant. Then throw in that some people who work 8 to 10 hours a day at work might very well have 2 hours or more of commuting each day and the differences get smaller and smaller.

When I was younger our schedule was 6 days a week (and the boss never saw the benefit of occasionally scheduling your day off for this week and your day off for next week back to back) and we would put in at least 60 hours a week at minimum.
   1120. Howie Menckel Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:57 PM (#5770464)
Smiling scrunches up your face, making it more difficult to see the color of your eyes in the photograph.

I got my first driver's license 40 years ago, and NYS listed my eye color as GRY (for gray, or grey).
I'm pretty sure no human has such a color (mine are on the blue side). but I was told even decades before 9-11 homeland security measures that ever trying to change it would put into a Kakfa-esque existence. so GRY it remains.
   1121. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 02:58 PM (#5770465)
Great stuff. I would say that manual labor is in some ways easier than white collar long hours. At least when you're young. White collar stuff requires a lot of emotional IQ and organization. Frankly I just only have so much of that to give on any given day. Also requires a pretty optimistic outlook about your ability that particular day to problem solve and be creative.

In college one summer I had two gigs, radio board op and then server. I would sneak in a nap between shifts. The radio gig started at 8am and lasted until 2. Night waiter shift started at 4 and lasted until about midnight. Those were some long ass days but man I was rolling in money that summer. Not to mention that waiting tables is an incredible way to meet women.
   1122. JL72 Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:00 PM (#5770468)
They certainly do, but probably not every week. Of course, when they're at Cruz's level they usually don't sit in the office 14 hours a day for 5 days. They probably work 10-12 hours per day in the office, or running from one client meeting to another. Then maybe they spend an hour or two after dinner reviewing documents from home each night, have a few hours of conference calls and document review on Saturday and Sunday as well.


Add to it fundraisers and meetings with supporters. Lots of "work" for a politician is very different than what most people consider work.
   1123. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:10 PM (#5770473)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist?


Others have answered this, but yeah. Some folks do this. A lot of top 5 consulting firms will ride their RCG hires to the bone like this, because the kids think they're going to get rewarded for the dedication. You'll also get this sort of work rate in high end legal and consulting firms for partner level folks, occasionally. More often than not, though, people who talk about "working 70 hours per week" actually work maybe 30 and bill an extra 40 for looking at their emails occasionally on the weekend.
   1124. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:13 PM (#5770474)
More often than not, though, people who talk about "working 70 hours per week" actually work maybe 30 and bill an extra 40 for looking at their emails occasionally on the weekend.


That's the impression I get. Or they think going to the ball game for the "team building" or "sales meeting" is really work. It's more like getting paid to socialize, which those types usually love.
   1125. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:16 PM (#5770477)
Do people that "work 70 hour weeks" really exist? I just laugh at that.

Try owning your own business. The first few years I owned my shop I worked 7 days a week and was out on buys several nights on top of that. And in the final 6 years I'd spend up to 4 or 5 hours an evening printing posters, buying new material on ebay, and cleaning up those new images in Photoshop to make them printworthy. Not exactly backbreaking work, and I loved doing it, but the hours did add up.

And a good friend of mine who had another shop was on the road on and off for close to six months a year, driving from one coast to the other either buying books from other shops or selling them at book fairs. Owning your business has tons of advantages, but short hours aren't among them.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Great stuff. I would say that manual labor is in some ways easier than white collar long hours. At least when you're young.

That probably depends on the particulars, but when I first got out of college I drove a Yellow cab for 12 hours a day and was lucky to clear 20 or 25 bucks, which is about 150 to 185 bucks today. I have no idea how anyone could ever possibly do that for more than a year or two without going bonkers, between the waits between trips and the unbelievably nitty passengers whose idea of a big tip was about 10%.
   1126. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:20 PM (#5770479)
Great stuff. I would say that manual labor is in some ways easier than white collar long hours. At least when you're young. White collar stuff requires a lot of emotional IQ and organization. Frankly I just only have so much of that to give on any given day. Also requires a pretty optimistic outlook about your ability that particular day to problem solve and be creative.

In college one summer I had two gigs, radio board op and then server. I would sneak in a nap between shifts. The radio gig started at 8am and lasted until 2. Night waiter shift started at 4 and lasted until about midnight. Those were some long ass days but man I was rolling in money that summer. Not to mention that waiting tables is an incredible way to meet women.


In some ways - sure.

But, very much in my younger days, I also did some manual labor jobs of the true "ditch-digging" variety - in addition to the some waiting tables, etc kind of stuff (i.e., construction, etc). Never put in a "70 hour week" - generally not-feasible and no contractor was going to pay 30 hours of overtime anyway - but the 'harder' weeks, not even hours, but the weeks that were really physically demanding?

It just really drains you... like to the point that I'd get home, muddy, sun burnt, smelling like crap and just sit for a couple hours. Not even nap per se - but just sit with a 1000 mile stare. Then, eventually, take a shower. Eat something. Go to sleep. Repeat.

Fairly rare that goes on forever or for an extended period - there's only so many meters of trench needed for a certain job or so many brick walls that need to be knocked down with a sledgehammer or so many length of cast iron sewer pipe to bust up, cut apart, and haul out...

But, if I had to choose between those 70 hour weeks of tapping away at a keyboard, reading log files, recompiling, et al vs. 40 hour weeks of the manual stuff?

Well... pay rate makes it a no-brainer, but if the pay rates were equal? I'm honestly not sure what I'd choose. Both sucked and both pretty much left you with a week or three of "wake up. work. eat. sleep. repeat."

I suppose one positive aspect of the manual side - I was in far better physical shape afterwards!
   1127. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:21 PM (#5770480)
Lots of "work" for a politician is very different than what most people consider work.

It may be different, but I don't think spending half my life either on a plane or eating on the run at some dump for a photo op is exactly how I'd want to pass my days. It may not be work in the usual sense of the word, but I doubt if many of us here would have the desire to do it.

And on that subject, here's the perfect reference book: 50 Jobs Worse Than Yours, all with accompanying photos.
   1128. GregD Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:22 PM (#5770481)
Differs by the job, right? I have read and heard (not a lawyer) that associates billing 2000-2400 hours per year operate between 2/3 and 4/5 efficiency in terms of time in the office that they can bill. Not just because of bathroom breaks or eating at the desk but administrative tasks and other annoyances. And human concentration. So that suggests a range of 2500-3500 hours per week in the office to get that billing, depending on whether you're at the low or high end. But then you take into account vacation (which of course many associates don't fully utilize) and other lost days, and you can easily end up with even efficient associates logging close to 70 hours a week consistently to meet their billing goals. I don't know if the estimated efficiencies also count things like time lags between assignments, travel to meetings, and other parts of the work experience that aren't part of billing.

Not the same thing, but when writing a book, there are definitely weeks when I work 70+ hours. And other weeks when I don't do anything like that.
   1129. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:25 PM (#5770482)
It just really drains you... like to the point that I'd get home, muddy, sun burnt, smelling like crap and just sit for a couple hours. Not even nap per se - but just sit with a 1000 mile stare. Then, eventually, take a shower. Eat something. Go to sleep. Repeat.


Agree with that.

Hardest job I ever had was landscaping at a golf course. God that was awful. Back breaking work, literally. Part of the gig was picking up fairly large boulders loading them into a front end loader. And raking bunkers. Endlessly raking bunkers in the sun. Carrying a weed wacker on your back at other times. Just not fun. Glad I was able to ditch that gig and find better stuff the next summer. You're right even when you're young at the end of the day your feet hurt, your backs hurts and you smell like gas and grass.

Try owning your own business. The first few years I owned my shop I worked 7 days a week and was out on buys several nights on top of that. And in the final 6 years I'd spend up to 4 or 5 hours an evening printing posters, buying new material on ebay, and cleaning up those new images in Photoshop to make them printworthy. Not exactly backbreaking work, and I loved doing it, but the hours did add up.


I've owned one for about 7 years now. I run it efficiently as possibly. Pride myself on it. I'm here to keep the door open 50 hours a week but only maybe 1/3 of that is actually doing organized work. When my techs are here usually I get the day going and then the place runs itself.

That said, the hardest part is the emotional labor. I'm a softie man. I take things way too personally. If I can't recover someone's data or I screw up a diagnostic it affects me. Alienates me from the labor honestly.
   1130. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:44 PM (#5770494)
The best long hour job I ever had, though -

In the early days of the internet, a buddy working for one of those college prep and college info places got me a contracting gig writing short blurbs on colleges. Four to five sentence paragraphs, just a short blurb to include location and area info, specializations or area of renown, type of school and other such stuff (i.e., juco vs 4 year, public/private, commuter/on-campus splits, etc), and one little 'odd item' - a tradition or school event or in the case of some smaller schools or with lacking info, maybe something about the town.

Paid really well - $5 a blurb. I was one of five people doing it - and the way it worked was that you got a list of 100 schools, when you completed that and submitted it, you'd get another 100, etc.

Anyway, I got really good at it - I think my blurbs were quite good, if I do say so myself - but I also got REALLY efficient at it, to the point I imagine my hourly rate was somewhere approaching what I make now.

There were about 2500 colleges total we wrote up - and among the 5 people doing it, I did 1100 of them... a couple weeks of just sitting all night in the college computer lab - the poor college kid inducement of realizing I just made $500 in a single night's work was a great motivator.

The guy running the project was ecstatic - he expected it to take about 6 weeks, but my greed and speed meant he got all his blurbs in about 3 weeks.
   1131. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:47 PM (#5770496)
When I was younger, I pretty routinely worked 90+ hour weeks (9-midnight+ M-Fr, 8 hours on Sat and Sun). Again, not every week, but when in the middle of big transactions certainly. I suspect most corporate lawyers or investment bankers have had similar experiences.
Yeah; you can't bill 3,000 hours per year without working 70 hours per week.


EDIT: Highly-caffeinated beverage to GregD.
   1132. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 03:54 PM (#5770500)
Trump Fight Club...

(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s chief of staff and his national security adviser engaged in a profanity-laced argument outside the Oval Office on Thursday, according to three people familiar with the episode.

It wasn’t immediately clear what the chief of staff, John Kelly, and the national security adviser, John Bolton, were arguing about. The clash is an indication that tension is resurfacing in the White House 19 days before midterm elections in which Republican control of Congress is at stake.

The shouting match was so intense that other White House aides worried one of the two men might immediately resign. Neither is resigning, the people said.
   1133. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:10 PM (#5770507)
It wasn’t immediately clear what the chief of staff, John Kelly, and the national security adviser, John Bolton, were arguing about.


The House of Saud. I guaran-#######-tee you, it was about the House of Saud.
   1134. The Interdimensional Council of Rickey!'s Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:11 PM (#5770508)
The best long hour job I ever had, though -


I knew this one girl once who prided herself on taking you right to the edge repeatedly.
   1135. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:12 PM (#5770511)
I knew this one girl once who prided herself on taking you right to the edge repeatedly.


Job, not hobby... unless... TMI
   1136. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:21 PM (#5770519)
(Bloomberg) -- President Donald Trump’s chief of staff and his national security adviser engaged in a profanity-laced argument outside the Oval Office on Thursday, according to three people familiar with the episode.

It wasn’t immediately clear what the chief of staff, John Kelly, and the national security adviser, John Bolton, were arguing about. The clash is an indication that tension is resurfacing in the White House 19 days before midterm elections in which Republican control of Congress is at stake.

The shouting match was so intense that other White House aides worried one of the two men might immediately resign. Neither is resigning, the people said.

Give them both machine guns and may the best man win. And then let Trump take on the winner.
   1137. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:25 PM (#5770523)
The best part of this is that on the Post website's main page it's listed under "BREAKING NEWS"

Trump says ‘certainly looks’ as if Khashoggi is dead as pressure mounts on Saudi Arabia
[Breaking News: Trump says it “certainly looks” as if journalist Jamal Khashoggi is dead, noting “very severe” consqeuences possible.] ...

Up next: Trump ponders the whereabouts of Francisco Franco.

And according to the Times,
Mr. Trump stopped short of saying the Saudi crown prince, Mohammed bin Salman, was responsible for Mr. Khashoggi’s death.


   1138. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:27 PM (#5770524)
Saudis near conclusion of hunt for unauthorized interrogation gone bad scapegoat; Jared whines to pop that he and MBS were gonna go to Chalet Zermatt for spring break.

The plan to assign blame to Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, a high-ranking adviser to the crown prince, would be an extraordinary recognition of the magnitude of international backlash to hit the kingdom since the death of Mr. Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi dissident. A resident of Virginia and contributor to The Washington Post, Mr. Khashoggi was last seen entering the Saudi Consulate in Istanbul on Oct. 2.

Blaming General Assiri could also provide a plausible explanation for the killing and help deflect blame from the crown prince, who American intelligence agencies are increasingly convinced was behind Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance.

* * *

Jared Kushner, Mr. Trump’s son-in-law and Middle East adviser, has been urging the president to stand by Prince Mohammed, according to a person close to the White House and a former official with knowledge of the discussions.

Mr. Kushner has argued that the outrage over Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance and possible killing will pass, just as it did after other Saudi errors like the kidnapping of the prime minister of Lebanon and the killing of a busload of children in Yemen by a Saudi airstrike.

* * *

Four of the suspects Turkey has blamed for Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance belong to the security team that travels with Prince Mohammed. One of them, Maher Abdulaziz Mutreb, has been photographed or spotted near him during recent visits to at least five cities — Paris, Madrid, Houston, Boston and the New York headquarters of the United Nations.
   1139. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:34 PM (#5770528)
I suppose, though - it's been conclusively proven that this administration really blows.... so bet the over on the over.
   1140. TDF, trained monkey Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:54 PM (#5770543)
When I was younger our schedule was 6 days a week

I did it as an undergrad

When I was younger, I pretty routinely worked 90+ hour weeks

I worked I think 43 days in a row in one stretch about 25 years ago

In college one summer I had two gigs

A lot of top 5 consulting firms will ride their RCG hires to the bone like this, because the kids think they're going to get rewarded for the dedication.

when I first got out of college I drove a Yellow cab for 12 hours a day
When I was a senior in HS, I had 2 jobs. Because of the jobs and time of year, I worked over 90 hours one week (40 out of 48 hours in one stretch). When I was in college I was "facilities supervisor" in the auditorium, meaning I was in charge of making sure everything went smoothly during special events; I also ran the concessions operation. The last year there, I went from the 1st weekend of November til the last weekend of March with 8 total days off (Xmas and NYD were two of those 8) - and most of those days I was both the 1st one in the building and last one out.

But I was young, and it didn't really bother me. I'm don't sell cars any more; my current job at the dealership has me checking cars in, making sure the cars on the lot are kept damage-free, and other happy horseshit that keeps me on my feet most of the time. I'm here 6 days a week, about 57 hours, and it's freaking killing me.
   1141. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:55 PM (#5770544)
The plan to assign blame to Gen. Ahmed al-Assiri, a high-ranking adviser to the crown prince, would be an extraordinary recognition of the magnitude of international backlash to hit the kingdom since the death of Mr. Khashoggi, a prominent Saudi dissident.


So let me get this straight. The fact that the Saudis are reaching for a high ranking scapegoat reflects the seriousness in which they are taking this? "No, this one is serious. We must find a high ranking person to blame." And I assume the US is involved with the negotiations over how high the scapegoat must rank. "No, that guys's not high enough. You, you have to realize that this time it's serious!"

Here's a thought. How about blaming the guy who's responsible?
   1142. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5770546)
Here's a thought. How about blaming there guy who's responsible?


It's like Oberon dancing around the Mountain when everybody already knows the answer and how the scene will ultimately turn out.
   1143. Never Give an Inge (Dave) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 04:58 PM (#5770547)

That's the impression I get. Or they think going to the ball game for the "team building" or "sales meeting" is really work. It's more like getting paid to socialize, which those types usually love.

They may love it initially. Just like traveling for work seems glamorous when you're right out of college and have never done it before. Then you realize that the inside of a conference room looks the same in LA or London as it does in Manhattan.

And when you're older and the client dinner or business trip means time away from your family / charity work / marathon training or whatever, it wears on you. Especially when you're flying a 6 or 8-hour redeye back from the meeting (and not counting that time in the hours worked).

It just really drains you... like to the point that I'd get home, muddy, sun burnt, smelling like crap and just sit for a couple hours. Not even nap per se - but just sit with a 1000 mile stare. Then, eventually, take a shower. Eat something. Go to sleep. Repeat.

The stress of a high intensity office job wears on you as well. Not saying I'd rather be doing construction, and I'm lucky in that I've never had problems falling asleep, but I understand why some people end up turning to alcohol or drugs in order to do so. At least you're theoretically getting compensated for it financially.
   1144. PepTech, the Legendary Posted: October 18, 2018 at 05:01 PM (#5770549)
So let me get this straight. The fact that the Saudis are reaching for a high ranking scapegoat reflects the seriousness in which they are taking this?
They're probably trying to find a general who's got cancer already (or a cursed hand) who's willing to just be executed for the cause...
   1145. RoyalFlush Posted: October 18, 2018 at 05:15 PM (#5770556)
Mr. Kushner has argued that the outrage over Mr. Khashoggi’s disappearance and possible killing will pass, just as it did after other Saudi errors like the kidnapping of the prime minister of Lebanon and the killing of a busload of children in Yemen by a Saudi airstrike.


Maybe it's just the baseball fan in me, but "error" seems like the wrong word here.
   1146. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 05:16 PM (#5770558)

Maybe it's just the baseball fan in me, but "error" seems like the wrong word here.
Who among us hasn't accidentally killed and dismembered a journalist a few months after dropping a bomb on a school bus?
   1147. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 05:54 PM (#5770576)
Maybe it's just the baseball fan in me, but "error" seems like the wrong word here.


"Please! Please! This is supposed to be a happy occasion! Let's not bicker and argue about who killed who. "
   1148. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 06:07 PM (#5770578)
Who among us hasn't accidentally killed and dismembered a journalist a few months after dropping a bomb on a school bus?


Ah-ha!

Dave Littlefield's secret qualification weapon that snagged him the Mets interview!
   1149. Howie Menckel Posted: October 18, 2018 at 06:12 PM (#5770580)
So Hannity has said lots of dumb things on his radio (and TV) show, but today he finally crossed an uncrossable line.

In bragging about "lowest unemployment rate since 1969," he tossed out the names of 7 or 8 of the Miracle Mets team that won the World Series that year. but one of the names was "Ray Sadecki," and of course all right-thinking baseball fans know that the late left-handed didn't join the Mets until 1970 (he did make 4 relief appearances for the Mets in the 7-game loss to Oakland in the 1973 Series, but that doesn't forgive this outrageous transgression).

   1150. zenbitz Posted: October 18, 2018 at 06:59 PM (#5770589)
Who among us hasn't accidentally killed and dismembered a journalist a few months after dropping a bomb on a school bus?


Was that wrong? Should I not have done that?
   1151. Count Vorror Rairol Mencoon (CoB) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 07:04 PM (#5770591)
Is there anything that fiend (((Soros))) isn't behind???


Rep. Matt Gaetz
‏Verified account @RepMattGaetz

BREAKING: Footage in Honduras giving cash 2 women & children 2 join the caravan & storm the US border @ election time. Soros? US-backed NGOs? Time to investigate the source!

11:36 AM - 17 Oct 2018


Twitter

Matt Gaetz, Florida man ...

Video (of something) at link.

And you'll never guess who then retweeted the video, adding:



Donald J. Trump
‏Verified account @realDonaldTrump

Can you believe this, and what Democrats are allowing to be done to our Country?

1:04 PM - 18 Oct 2018


Well, yeah, you probably guessed ...

   1152. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 18, 2018 at 07:10 PM (#5770592)
There’s a new unskewed guy on twitter. (This one doesn’t even pretend to understand polls;¹ he just throws them all out and looks only at voter registration and absentee ballots requested.)


¹He seems to think they only ask, “Who do you think will win?” rather than “Who are you going to vote for?”
   1153. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 07:14 PM (#5770593)
Beto O'Rourke is in a town hall meeting that's now live on CNN. Just stumbled on it, and this ############ is killing it. Never seen him in this type of meeting before, and he's the real deal.
   1154. BDC Posted: October 18, 2018 at 07:24 PM (#5770596)
Beto is a perfectly cromulent national-stage Democrat, except that it's virtually impossible for Texas Democrats to build any kind of national resumé, because they can't get elected to statewide office. Wendy Davis would have been a natural for a HRC Cabinet post, but without that, she is just another local candidate who lost an election. And even a Cabinet post isn't exactly a stepping-stone. Julián Castro is getting some airtime this week as he mulls a Presidential bid, but a couple of years at HUD isn't really a major credential. (Somebody ask Ben Carson.)

OTOH, losing a media-event major-state Senate race after some electrifying debates, to a little ####ant who was on the wrong side of history, worked OK for Abraham Lincoln and may work for Beto :)
   1155. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 08:07 PM (#5770603)
Beto is a perfectly cromulent national-stage Democrat, except that it's virtually impossible for Texas Democrats to build any kind of national resumé, because they can't get elected to statewide office. Wendy Davis would have been a natural for a HRC Cabinet post, but without that, she is just another local candidate who lost an election. And even a Cabinet post isn't exactly a stepping-stone. Julián Castro is getting some airtime this week as he mulls a Presidential bid, but a couple of years at HUD isn't really a major credential. (Somebody ask Ben Carson.)

I would have agreed with all of that an hour ago. Now not so much. I've read countless articles about O'Rourke, but seeing and hearing him on that town hall stage tonight was a revelation. His style is almost completely the opposite of Obama's, but his ability to energize a crowd with a positive message is reminiscent of vintage Barack.

Christ, that closing answer of his would almost make me want to move to Texas. My wife loved Austin when she lived there, so who knows?

OTOH, losing a media-event major-state Senate race after some electrifying debates, to a little ####ant who was on the wrong side of history, worked OK for Abraham Lincoln and may work for Beto :)

Thinking only of 2020, O'Rourke would crush Trump, whether he wins or loses this Senate race. Unfortunately he'd have to lose to be able to do that, since he's pledged to serve a full term if he wins.

Oh, and that town hall tonight was supposed to be a third debate, but Cruz punked out, coward that he is.
   1156. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 08:39 PM (#5770610)
"It's gonna be an election of Kavanaugh, the Caravan, and law and order".


Trump just now. Unreal. He is now hinting that the Democrats are PAYING the migrants to show up.

His suit coats are now so ludicrously over sized to hide his weight gain that it appears he's up there in a black bath robe.
   1157. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 08:57 PM (#5770618)
The crowd is bored AF right now. Completely rambling. He is now talking about how his hair held up during the hurricanes. I'm not kidding you. This is "one good thing" that came out of the hurricanes, that it proved to people that he's not wearing a hair piece.

You can't make this #### up.

"Democrats produce mobs Republicans produce jobs". No transition he went literally from his hair to that one liner. Someone must have whispered in his ear. Oh, and now he's complimenting the sky. It really is "a big sky, a big beautiful sky".

LMAO! Trump just said that Don Jr knows more about guns than anybody in the crowd and he got booed. hahahaahahahahah.

Dude this guy has ALOT of sugar in his tank. NNAWWT. So many closeted types in the GOP.
   1158. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:08 PM (#5770620)
Beto is a perfectly cromulent national-stage Democrat, except that it's virtually impossible for Texas Democrats to build any kind of national resumé, because they can't get elected to statewide office. Wendy Davis would have been a natural for a HRC Cabinet post, but without that, she is just another local candidate who lost an election. And even a Cabinet post isn't exactly a stepping-stone. Julián Castro is getting some airtime this week as he mulls a Presidential bid, but a couple of years at HUD isn't really a major credential. (Somebody ask Ben Carson.)

I would have agreed with all of that an hour ago. Now not so much. I've read countless articles about O'Rourke, but seeing and hearing him on that town hall stage tonight was a revelation. His style is almost completely the opposite of Obama's, but his ability to energize a crowd with a positive message is reminiscent of vintage Barack.

Obama lost Texas twice, receiving 43.63% & 41.35% in 2008 & 2012.
   1159. stig-tossled, hornswoggled gef the typing mongoose Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:08 PM (#5770621)
Yeah, I had had stretches where I worked 70 and even 80 hours. It kind of sucked, but it is not an all the time thing.


70-80 was expected of me as metro editor, & of pretty much all my fellow middle-management types, at the paper here in Montgomery.

Gannett should be destroyed, & its corporate officers should be flayed alive & then rolled in salt.
   1160. This is going to be state of the art wall Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:12 PM (#5770625)
Look. At. His. Bio. Picture. This dude is kidding right?
   1161. Howie Menckel Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:19 PM (#5770629)
Thinking only of 2020, O'Rourke would crush Trump, whether he wins or loses this Senate race. Unfortunately he'd have to lose to be able to do that, since he's pledged to serve a full term if he wins.

finding a Senate-winning candidate who pledged to serve a full term - only to break that pledge - takes us back almost to the dawn of mankind

https://www.huffingtonpost.com/rich-rubino/when-considering-a-presid_b_6217808.html

"the day after being elected to the U.S. Senate from Illinois in November of 2004, Barack Obama said: “I can unequivocally say I will not be running for national office in four years, and my entire focus is making sure that I’m the best possible senator on behalf of the people of Illinois.” Yet Obama supporters never took him at his word, and many of his Senate colleagues urged him to run. In February of 2007, he announced his candidacy for President."

so I'm saying there's a chance
   1162. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5770634)
Obama lost Texas twice, receiving 43.63% & 41.35% in 2008 & 2012.


Ah yes, the year he got 52.9% and 51.1% of the popular vote respectively - 2008 being the first time in 20 years that anyone got 50% of the popular vote.

Also happens to remain the record (2008) and runner-up to the record (2012) for the most votes anyone has received for President in history.... Number 3 on the list is Hillary Clinton 2016.
   1163. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:25 PM (#5770635)
Looks like Trump has something else to look forward to should the Democrats take the House:

Emails show Trump intervened personally to stop FBI headquarters from moving out of DC, Democrats say

Administration emails show that President Donald Trump intervened personally to keep FBI headquarters in downtown Washington rather than relocate it to the suburbs as had long been planned, congressional Democrats said Thursday.

The letter from Democratic lawmakers on the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform says Trump's direct involvement presents a brazen conflict of interest. Trump owns a downtown hotel across the street from FBI headquarters that could face competition if the FBI's current location is opened to private redevelopment, which could include another hotel. Before running for office, Trump expressed interest in redeveloping the property himself.

Trump "was directly involved with the decision to abandon the long-term relocation plan and instead move ahead with the more expensive proposal to construct a new building on the same site, and thereby prevent Trump Hotel competitors from acquiring the land," wrote Democratic Reps. Elijah Cummings of Maryland; Gerry Connolly of Virginia; Dina Titus of Nevada; Peter DeFazio of Oregon; and Mike Quigley of Illinois.

Thursday's letter cites correspondence from a senior official at the General Services Administration, which manages real estate for the federal government, outlining a January 2018 Oval Office meeting and describing the headquarters decision as "what POTUS directed everyone to do."

Connolly said the letters represent significant circumstantial evidence, given the overall context of the project. For more than a decade, Connolly said, the plan to move FBI headquarters to the suburbs was widely accepted as the most logical alternative. The current J. Edgar Hoover building, built in 1974, is crumbling badly. The space is not big enough to consolidate all FBI personnel, and modern security requirements impose building restrictions that would be extremely difficult to meet at the existing location, Connolly said. Advocates of a suburban location say it would be less expensive and more efficient.

Given Trump's financial conflict of interest with his hotel, and his ongoing feud with the FBI, Connolly said Trump's involvement in the decision is all the more suspicious. He also said GSA has been less than forthcoming about Trump's involvement in the decision in congressional testimony.

"This is an issue we will continue to pursue in the next Congress," Connolly said.


Might be worth looking in to.

Back in the early days of the Trump presidency, we were challenged by Trumpkins to name ways in which Trump could possibly run afoul of conflict of interest statutes short of sell nights in the Lincoln bedroom in Air B&B. Well, how about cancelling plans for the FBI to move to the suburbs which would result in cheaper and better facilities in favor of a new plan to rebuild in place, in order to keep the property off the market and protect his hotel from competition?
   1164. Dan The Mediocre is one of "the rest" Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:27 PM (#5770636)
Ah yes, the year he got 52.9% and 51.1% of the popular vote respectively - 2008 being the first time in 20 years that anyone got 50% of the popular vote.


GWB got 50.7% in 2004.
   1165. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:29 PM (#5770639)
Oops, mea culpa.... Dan's right.

Bad googling - score one for just using wikipedia.
   1166. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:37 PM (#5770644)
One of the 15 guys Turkey says was part of the chop squad has died in a “traffic accident” in Saudi Arabia....
   1167. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:39 PM (#5770646)
One of the 15 guys Turkey says was part of the chop squad has died in a “traffic accident” in Saudi Arabia....


Guess we have our scapegoat.
   1168. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 18, 2018 at 09:42 PM (#5770648)
Well, if a guy can be as careless as to kill a guy in an interrogation, I suppose it’s totes possible he’s not the most careful driver, either.
   1169. PreservedFish Posted: October 18, 2018 at 10:52 PM (#5770743)
I had a Mexican cook that had three jobs. He worked 13 shifts per week - so his "weekend" was a single evening off. The shifts probably averaged 6.5 hours. That's 80-90 hours, every week. I presume he was sending money back to a family in Mexico but he was a taciturn sort and I didn't learn anything about his life outside of work. All of the other guys on my crew had two jobs, so probably worked 60-70 hours, but I think he was the only one with three.
   1170. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 18, 2018 at 11:21 PM (#5770788)
I've read countless articles about O'Rourke, but seeing and hearing him on that town hall stage tonight was a revelation. His style is almost completely the opposite of Obama's, but his ability to energize a crowd with a positive message is reminiscent of vintage Barack.

Obama lost Texas twice, receiving 43.63% & 41.35% in 2008 & 2012.


And as Texas went, so went Mississippi. Or maybe you think Texas will have 270 electoral votes by the time that 2020 comes around.

EDIT: coke with a side of hand picked flies' wings to zonk

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Back in the early days of the Trump presidency, we were challenged by Trumpkins to name ways in which Trump could possibly run afoul of conflict of interest statutes short of sell nights in the Lincoln bedroom in Air B&B. Well, how about cancelling plans for the FBI to move to the suburbs which would result in cheaper and better facilities in favor of a new plan to rebuild in place, in order to keep the property off the market and protect his hotel from competition.

The conflict is blatant, but after Trump leaves the White House that hotel of his will have about as many paying guests as the Pitts Motor Hotel.
   1171. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 18, 2018 at 11:45 PM (#5770854)
Obama lost Texas twice, receiving 43.63% & 41.35% in 2008 & 2012.

And as Texas went, so went Mississippi. Or maybe you think Texas will have 270 electoral votes by the time that 2020 comes around.

You compared O'Rourke to Obama (#1155) as a supposed rebuttal to BDC's point (#1154) that as appealing as O'Rourke may be to liberals such as yourself, such candidates are unlikely to be elected to statewide office in Texas. Neither was Obama, as demonstrated by how poorly he fared in the state despite winning two terms in the White House. Your saying that O'Rourke reminds you of Obama makes him less electable, not more. Or are you suggesting that a defeated O'Rourke will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee? Or maybe that he should just move to Illinois?
   1172. ERROR---Jolly Old St. Nick Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:03 AM (#5770871)
You compared O'Rourke to Obama (#1155) as a supposed rebuttal to BDC's point (#1154) that as appealing as O'Rourke may be to liberals such as yourself, such candidates are unlikely to be elected to statewide office in Texas. Neither was Obama, as demonstrated by how poorly he fared in the state despite winning two terms in the White House. Your saying that O'Rourke reminds you of Obama makes him less electable, not more. Or are you suggesting that a defeated O'Rourke will be the 2020 Democratic Presidential Nominee? Or maybe that he should just move to Illinois?

What does it matter if a candidate loses Texas if he wins the presidency? Please enlighten me, o master.
   1173. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:32 AM (#5770877)
The Federalist:

Why Youth Synods Drive Young People Away From The Catholic Church
During October, the bishops and cardinals of the Catholic Church have been meeting in Rome for the 2018 Youth Synod. Its goal is to put together a document that addresses the concerns of young people both inside and outside the church and propose ways to better serve them.

Only the Catholic Church would think that gathering a group of elderly out-of-touch clergymen to write statements as a committee is the best way to reach young people. (...)

A special point made this year is the focus on sociological data. No longer will they look at church teachings or scripture or tradition — they will look at pie charts, surveys, and graphs that tell them in clean scientific terms that kids find church boring and lame.

One can predict the product of this synod will be a document that intends to make church even more boring and lame. It will surely call for more “openness,” more “tolerance,” more “listening,” more “authentic” religious experiences, and condemn people who do not seem to find these lessons anywhere in scripture or church teaching. Indeed, it will be difficult to see what the church is for, besides vaguely validating people who couldn’t care less about it. (...)

Instead of composing a useless document filled with reheated progressive clichés about the need to reach the youth and stay relevant—all of which is simply another way of admitting defeat to the surrounding culture—bishops should consider why these traditional parishes seem to do so well. They may discover that young people don’t actually respond to making things easier or more open, but rather to the opposite: They want something more challenging and more exclusive. Kids will go to great lengths to find purpose and meaning in their life, taking on all of the demands of sports, music, academics, work, and fitting in with various groups of people.

The same is true for adults. A church that lacks definition and seems cut off from any discernible tradition or authority may just as well not exist. Many mainline Protestant and mainstream Catholic churches are in swift decline for this reason. At a time when people desperately need Christ and community in their lives, church leaders propose being nicer to homosexuals and hosting talks about population control.

“Let’s keep watering down our beliefs until we stand for nothing, and then we can get support from the people who hate us.” The Catholic Church is using the DNC playbook!
   1174. Davo and his Moose Tacos Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:37 AM (#5770878)
Pope Francis mulling over support for SSA: “For every devout Catholic we lose in western Pennsylvania, we will pick up two atheists in Philadelphia!”
   1175. The Yankee Clapper Posted: October 19, 2018 at 12:51 AM (#5770881)
What does it matter if a candidate loses Texas if he wins the presidency? Please enlighten me, o master.

Not a likely scenario - you seem to be chugging a lot of Kool Aid based on watching Beto once on TV.
   1176. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 01:13 AM (#5770884)
So this is how American President Trump is celebrating "Killing a journalist is very sad" week:
“[Rep. Greg Gianforte] is smart. And by the way, never wrestle him. You understand that? Never. ANY GUY THAT can do a body slam, he’s my kind of--” [pantomimes slamming a person up and over his head] “He’s my guy. I shouldn't say that, but there's nothing to be embarrassed about.”

Democrats produce mobs.
   1177. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 05:49 AM (#5770895)

What does it matter if a candidate loses Texas if he wins the presidency? Please enlighten me, o master.
WTF are you talking about? He's not running for president. He's running for senate from Texas.
   1178. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 06:31 AM (#5770896)
So this is how American President Trump is celebrating "Killing a journalist is very sad" week:

“[Rep. Greg Gianforte] is smart. And by the way, never wrestle him. You understand that? Never. ANY GUY THAT can do a body slam, he’s my kind of--” [pantomimes slamming a person up and over his head] “He’s my guy. I shouldn't say that, but there's nothing to be embarrassed about.”

Democrats produce mobs.


The Stupids voted for a pro-wrestling personality and that’s what they got. It’s the clarity they needed, absent any complex thought or emotion, because Stupids don’t do well with those. “How would Hulk Hogan have handle the situation” is the sort of wizened guidance he gets from WWE and Saudi Arabia PR stooge Linda McMahon.
   1179. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 06:54 AM (#5770897)
“Let’s keep watering down our beliefs until we stand for nothing, and then we can get support from the people who hate us.” The Catholic Church is using the DNC playbook!


It’s you hippies that demanded a stop to all of the church’s most hallowed historical traditions, like inquisitions and the forced ghettoization of Jews. Even a little bit of slave labor from “fallen women” is a bridge too far for you bigots, so spare me your disingenuous advice, moonbeam.
   1180. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 08:30 AM (#5770901)
The same is true for adults. A church that lacks definition and seems cut off from any discernible tradition or authority may just as well not exist. Many mainline Protestant and mainstream Catholic churches are in swift decline for this reason. At a time when people desperately need Christ and community in their lives, church leaders propose being nicer to homosexuals and hosting talks about population control.


“Let’s keep watering down our beliefs until we stand for nothing, and then we can get support from the people who hate us.” The Catholic Church is using the DNC playbook!



Well, we wouldn't want a church to be <gasp> nice to homosexuals! I mean ... really!

Note: People don't actually "desperately need Christ" in their lives. If you want Christ in yours have a good time, but me and millions of others are good the way we are ... Christ free.
   1181. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 08:36 AM (#5770904)
WTF are you talking about? He's not running for president. He's running for senate from Texas.


They are both being a bit out their, but this is silly David. You know very well how the conversation ended up there and it is plenty logical. Andy's small conversational jump was no worse than Clapper's and you know it.
   1182. BDC Posted: October 19, 2018 at 08:50 AM (#5770906)
Of course, while I don't think either Beto or (either) Castro is a likely Presidential nominee in 2020, they are plausible running mates for a blue-state candidate, in a new take on the old Democratic ticket-balancing principle. Julián Castro can't say "I'm running for Vice President," but I am sure the idea has crossed his mind.
   1183. manchestermets Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:14 AM (#5770912)
They are both being a bit out their, but this is silly David. You know very well how the conversation ended up there and it is plenty logical. Andy's small conversational jump was no worse than Clapper's and you know it.


But if David doesn't dip Andy's pigtails in the inkwell at every opportunity, we might realise that he's got a crush on him.
   1184. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:40 AM (#5770931)
So the GOP seems to have a problem with their candidates not being endorsed by their own party. Kobach and Kansas is the front runner, but a dark horse is making some moves ... Another Ex-Walker Official Endorses His Challenger

A fourth former official in Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s (R) administration has publicly denounced the governor as he seeks a third term, while releasing a letter calling for the election of challenger Tony Evers (D), the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
   1185. Gonfalon Bubble Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:44 AM (#5770936)
Nice try, Mouse. Everybody knows that Republicans feeling under attack is their ultimate secret weapon in the midterms! Kavanaugh Power, baby! If you strike Scott Walker down, he shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.
   1186. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:50 AM (#5770941)
Of course, while I don't think either Beto or (either) Castro is a likely Presidential nominee in 2020


Amusingly at this point no one on Earth is a likely Democratic presidential nominee. It is a forest of unlikely candidates as far as the eye can see.
   1187. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:51 AM (#5770942)
Nice try, Mouse. Everybody knows that Republicans feeling under attack is their ultimate secret weapon in the midterms! Kavanaugh Power, baby! If you strike Scott Walker down, he shall become more powerful than you can possibly imagine.


Next time, he'll last until the October prior to the start of the primary calendar?
   1188. You Know Nothing JT Snow (YR) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:52 AM (#5770943)
Terry Crews is tanned, rested, and ready.
   1189. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:53 AM (#5770944)
Money money money... monnnneyyyy!

The fundraising numbers are so good for Democrats — and so bad for Republicans — that it’s a little bit hard to know quite what to make of them. From a modelling standpoint, we’re extrapolating from years in which fundraising was relatively even, or from when one party had a modest edge, into an environment where Democrats suddenly have a 2-1 advantage in fundraising in competitive races. Moreover, this edge comes despite the fact that a large number of these competitive races feature Republican incumbents (incumbents usually have an easier time raising money than challengers) and that most of them are in red terrain.

If Democrats beat their projections on Nov. 6 — say, they win 63 House seats, equalling the number that Republicans won in 2010, an unlikely-but-not-impossible scenario — we may look back on these fundraising numbers as the canary in the coal mine. That data, plus Democrats’ very strong performances in special elections, could look like tangible signs of a Democratic turnout surge that pollsters and pundits perhaps won’t have paid enough attention to. Right now, in fact, the polls are not showing a Democratic turnout advantage. Instead, based on a comparison of likely-voter and registered-voter polls, they’re projecting roughly equal turnout between the parties, with Republicans’ demographic advantages (older, whiter voters typically vote at higher rates at the midterms) counteracting Democrats’ seemingly higher enthusiasm. If turnout among Democratic-leaning groups actually outpaces that among Republican-leaning ones, Democrats will beat their polls and our projections.

It’s just as easy to imagine the error running the other way, however. Maybe, precisely because fundraising has become easier, including winning contributions from out-of-state and out-of-district donors, it’s no longer as meaningful an indicator of candidates’ grassroots appeal or organizational strength. Maybe the demographics of the Republican coalition have changed such that they’ll no longer raise as much money but will still get plenty of votes. Or maybe the GOP can make up for their lack of individual fundraising with more money from outside groups. If that’s the case, our model could overestimate Democrats’ chances. Although, I should note that while there’s a gap between our Lite forecast, which is based on local and national polls only, and our Classic forecast, which also incorporates fundraising and other “fundamentals” data, it’s not an especially large one. (Lite projects Democrats to pick up 36 seats, on average, as compared to 39 in Classic.)


Like I said, since this administration blows -- always bet the over on the over.
   1190. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 09:56 AM (#5770949)
Indeed, the individual most likely to be the (D) nominee in 2020 at this point, in my estimation, is either Biden or Warren, each of whom I'd probably bet at ~5%. There are probably a further ~20 people I'd put a >~ 1% - but I'd probably take it at ~33% that it's someone I'd have to google to figure out who the hell they are - someone like John Lynch, say.
   1191. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5770951)
Regarding money ... #1189 kind of nails it. The weird thing is past a certain point (long since hit in many races) extra money doesn't really help any more (the marginal impact of additional money in a race decreases steeply).

But, and there had to be a but, money does point to enthusiasm. So even if the extra money itself doesn't contribute much to election success, giving money and voting are obviously correlated, and it wouldn't be a shock if enthusiasm to contribute money was followed by enthusiasm to vote and to get your friends and family to vote. On the gripping hand, a rote vote and a SUPER enthusiastic vote both count the same.
   1192. Misirlou doesn't live in the restaurant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:04 AM (#5770952)
From a few days back:

You can indeed squint a bit and see parallels to Weimar Germany in 2018 America. Neither side, though, is as extreme as the Reds and Browns. There's very little support for overthrowing the American constitution and republic even among the fringes of the two tribes.


Sure.

Dear Leader just regularly leads rallies - and has literally and continuously since the 2016 election - where "Lock [her|him] Up" is a regular staple.


Last night, the President of the US praised a sitting congressman for assaulting a reporter.

US President Donald Trump has praised a Republican congressman who assaulted a journalist last year with a "body slam", referring to him as "my guy".

"Greg is smart," Mr Trump said of Montana Congressman Greg Gianforte, adding "By the way, never wrestle him".

"Any guy that can do a body slam... he's my guy," he said to cheers and laughter at a rally in Montana.

After praising Mr Gianforte, Mr Trump also mimicked a person being thrown forcefully to the ground.
   1193. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:05 AM (#5770953)
In the realm of Things that Would Ordinarily be Pretty Decently Big Stories in an Administration that wasn't a Ridiculous Disaster...

Ben Carson had announced last week that his Deputy, Suzanne Tufts, was going to be moving to Interior to become their new inspector general.

This was... odd... because IGs are generally not political appointees, but Tufts was and is. Plus, HUD generally does not announcements about Interior IG appointments. Oh, and it's usually not HUD's job to announce the firing of the Interior IG.

That would be the IG looking at no less than 14 different Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke malfeasances (a Trump Admin record!).

Such a well-run, integrity-laden machine!



   1194. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:08 AM (#5770956)
Regarding money ... #1189 kind of nails it. The weird thing is past a certain point (long since hit in many races) extra money doesn't really help any more (the marginal impact of additional money in a race decreases steeply).


I think this is truism, though, best applied to higher levels... At a CD level? Even a statewide level?

We've never seen such a disparity before.
   1195. Esmailyn Gonzalez Sr. Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:15 AM (#5770965)
someone like John Lynch, say

Mike Alstott as running mate. With Trent Dilfer as his campaign manager, because Trent Dilfer is an expert at managing not to lose.
   1196. BrianBrianson Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:20 AM (#5770972)
I mean, I meant the former governor of New Hampshire John Lynch. I suspect a "celebrity" candidate would be someone I've heard of - Mark Cuban, or Oprah, or Ellen or such.
   1197. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:21 AM (#5770978)
I think this is truism, though, best applied to higher levels... At a CD level? Even a statewide level?


I think so. We have definitely seen individual down ballot elections where additional money doesn't help. Diminishing marginal returns is very much a real thing (perhaps the second realist thing economics has to offer, supply & demand being first).

So I think it very likely there are many more such races this cycle than previously. Of course, on the fourth(?) hand, just because one side has enough money that more won't help does NOT mean both sides have. Disparity can still matter, even if one candidate has more money than they need.
   1198. Mellow Mouse, Benevolent Space Tyrant Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:25 AM (#5770985)
As an economics aside my eldest son was asking about inflation last night at the dinner table, he was having a hard time understanding it. By the end of the conversation he understood more but thought it ridiculous. In his view money also obeying the laws of supply and demand, having its own "price" and also being able to be just created by governments was weird and wrong.

He is not unjustified in that feeling, I must admit.

Note: Yes we have unusual dinner table conversations.
   1199. David Nieporent (now, with children) Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:27 AM (#5770989)
But, and there had to be a but, money does point to enthusiasm. So even if the extra money itself doesn't contribute much to election success, giving money and voting are obviously correlated,
As the 538 excerpt points out, unless it’s measuring enthusiasm of the district itself, it doesn’t matter. If people nationwide are giving lots of money to Beto, it doesn’t necessarily say anything about his own constituents’ view of him. (Abortion Barbie is the obvious example.)

Moreover, I suspect that there is a much weaker correlation between contributions and enthusiasm than there used to be, because it’s so much easier to donate. When you had to go find out the candidate’s address by digging up his literature or making a phone call, and then had to go write out a check, get out a stamp and mail the thing, that’s shows some significant commitment. But if all you have to do is click on a link in a fundraising email or Facebook ad and put in your credit card information, well, even the biggest slackers can manage that.
   1200. Zonk qualifies as an invasive species Posted: October 19, 2018 at 10:30 AM (#5770992)

I think so. We have definitely seen individual down ballot elections where additional money doesn't help. Diminishing marginal returns is very much a real thing (perhaps the second realist thing economics has to offer, supply & demand being first).

So I think it very likely there are many more such races this cycle than previously. Of course, on the fourth(?) hand, just because one side has enough money that more won't help does NOT mean both sides have. Disparity can still matter, even if one candidate has more money than they need.


But in a national GE?

Sure - all the money in the world didn't help Ossoff (though, once you include outside spending, the gap wasn't nearly so big, if not parity).

But - it was the only game in town and drew national attention.

This is pretty unprecedented - across the map - for a midterm. Not gonna look them up - but I did see (and was surprised to see) that the DCCC and DSCC actually outraised their R counterparts, too (didn't see DNC vs RNC, but I'll assume that one went the other way). Not by the same margins as the candidates, I'll grant - but I still would have expected all those candidate donations to have meant the party apparatuses suffered. They didn't.

Add to that - despite Adelson dumping another big check - you've got Steyers and Bloombergs (and Soros!) who also seem to be outspending.... plus, plenty of stories about big R donors staying out.
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